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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 3/3/2003 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Gandalf the White (03/03/03; 23:58:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 98831) NOTICE the "MACD" graphic at the bottom of THIS CHART ! http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$GOLD,uu[m,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200!d20,2!b50!g10!e5!a!h.02,.20][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3!Lk14!Lo14!Lv25!Lw25!Lr14] Looks to be only a SHORT TIME until "BLASTOFF" time again !<;-) Gandalf the White (03/03/03; 23:47:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 98830) OOPS ! That UP-DATE should have said time of 23:40 Denver Time !<;-( Gandalf the White (03/03/03; 23:41:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 98829) TAA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!! Listing UP-DATED as of MONDAY, 3/3/03, 21:40 Denver Time !NOTE to CONTEST entrants -- Please check to see if your "Prognostication" number has been taken in any newly entered guess, AFTER the above posting time, just before you submit yours, so that there are not any duplications ! Tkanks <;-)**** $417.3 **** ha_tey_o (02/27/03; 13:26:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 98536)**** $400.0 **** Zhisheng (02/28/03; 02:08:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 98564)**** $392.5 **** physicalman (03/03/03; 22:17:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98824)**** $385.5 **** Skydog (02/28/03; 06:27:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 98581)**** $385.4 **** slingshot (02/27/03; 23:49:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98555)**** $381.5 **** GoldnSilver2002 (02/27/03; 10:57:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 98525**** $378.0 **** Mountain Top (02/27/03; 17:04:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98543)**** $377.8 **** Toolie (02/27/03; 21:19:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 98550)**** $375.1 **** Pizz (02/28/03; 18:00:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 98630)**** $372.7 **** Noble1 (03/03/03; 20:42:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 98819)**** $368.5 **** pilgrims_gold (02/27/03; 17:26:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 98544)**** $365.4 **** harryo (02/27/03; 15:48:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 98541)**** $360.8 **** VanRip (03/03/03; 19:11:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 98814)**** $356.5 **** Liberty Head (02/28/03; 18:45:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98634)**** $355.0 **** Clink! (02/28/03; 07:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98584)**** $352.4 **** Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98592)**** $348.5 **** Kevin$ (02/27/03; 12:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98535)**** $344.0 **** monTROZ (03/03/03; 12:35:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 98787)**** $340.0 **** kahulik (3/2/03; 13:35:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 98733) **** $336.5 **** Topaz (02/27/03; 22:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98554)Daily SETTLEMENT Prices on the COMEX Contact GC3J2/28/03 HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +$4.1 Yesterday's OI = 107,8693/03/03 GC3J HIGH = $349.9 low = $345.2 Settlement = $349.3 Change -$1.0 Yesterday's OI = 105,993For the SECOND Day in a row, Sir Kevin$ is AGAIN "King of the Hill" Gandalf the White (03/03/03; 23:37:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98828) Thanks -- Sir Physicalman ! <;-) physicalman (03/03/03; 22:17:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98824)"Pleased to meet you, won't you guess my name?"====Nice to FINALLY meet you too, Christopher !<;-) Black Blade (03/03/03; 23:21:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 98827) Dwindling Supplies of Natural Gas Spur Hike in Energy Prices http://hoovnews.hoovers.com/fp.asp?layout=displaynews&doc_id=NR200303041180.3_6239000c1b46b099 Snippit:Energy experts predicted heating prices would go up this winter, mostly because temperatures were expected to be lower than they were last year. But the weather has been colder than expected and reserves have been depleted, which could cause high prices to resurface next winter. "It's the perfect storm," said Aubrey Hilliard, president and chief executive officer of Horizon Energy, a Charlotte-based energy brokerage. "You've got Iraq, Venezuela, no drilling, and the real killer right now is the weather." No one expects shortages of natural gas this winter, but a report by Horizon Weather and Energy Ventures Group, two Colorado companies, states that the "storage supply will drop perilously low during the remaining six weeks of the winter heating season. "Energy providers will not be able to replenish the reserves at normal levels to face the winter of 2004. This will result in a continued upward spiral in prices." Bill O'Grady, a natural-gas analyst for A.G. Edwards in St. Louis, said "This is a crisis and it's very severe. ... It isn't going away in a couple of months." O'Grady said additional supply would alleviate the problem, but little new drilling is being done in the United States. Gas companies won't search for new gas supplies until they can be assured a higher return, he said. Black Blade: Next winter will be quite "interesting", especially if this summer is normal or warmer than normal. Black Blade (03/03/03; 23:09:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 98826) Economy feels shock of oil prices The recent spike in oil costs ripples through every sector, from transport to heating, raising the specter of recession. http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/N?art=C2003030300062x7418&SA=Latest%20News Snippit:NEW YORK, Mar 04, 2003 (The Christian Science Monitor via COMTEX) – Twelve months of rising energy prices are starting to threaten the US economy. A spike in oil prices has almost doubled the price of a commodity that literally fuels much of the economy. Combined with an even sharper increase in the cost of natural gas, the hike is siphoning cash from consumers and businesses at a time when the US economy is frozen in place. The extra energy bill - impacting everyone from commuters to airlines and factories - could amount to as much as $100 billion on an annualized basis. Economists say it's enough to shave 1 full percentage point off economic growth. And, if prices stay at this level or rise further, the risk of another recession is very real. In fact, rising fuel costs helped to cause or deepen the past four recessions: the mid-1970s, early 1980s, 1990-91, and 2000. The higher prices are showing up almost everywhere - from the rising cost of heating an apartment in Boston to the amount of money it takes to ship a head of lettuce from Mexico to Chicago. Airlines and semi-operators are tacking on fuel surcharges. And, last week, some heavy-industrial businesses said they would pare back their output until prices evened out while others warned Congress that the nation could expect higher prices for products ranging from fertilizer to bathroom fixtures.Black Blade: Risk of slipping into a recession is no concern as we are currently in one. There will be no economic recovery this year or next. Any economic growth will increase demand on energy, and energy supply remains tight with no relief in sight. Scratch any hope of "economic recovery" this year, in "the second half", or even next year. mikal (03/03/03; 22:23:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 98825) Wisdom from legendary billionaire http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2003/03/04/cnbuff04.xml&sSheet=/money/2003/03/04/ixcity.htmlApocalypse is nigh, Buffett tells Berkshire faithfulBy Simon English in New York Filed: 04/03/2003 -Excerpt:"Warren Buffett is poised to issue his most doom-laden forecast for the state of the world economy yet, including a damning verdict on the derivatives industry he fears could cause a global financial crisis.In the upcoming annual letter to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway, Mr Buffett drops his usual folksy style to warn that banks do not understand the hidden risks lurking on their balance sheets.He labels derivatives "time bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system" and "financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal".The views of the world's second richest man are closely watched and his apocalyptic vision will do little to steady nerves on Wall Street or in the City of London. Extracts from his annual letter, to be delivered on Saturday but posted on Fortune.com yesterday, reveal that he has little optimism for the stock market."Despite three years of falling prices which have significantly improved the attractiveness of common stocks, we still find very few that even mildly interest us. That dismal fact is testimony to the insanity of the valuations reached during the Great Bubble. Unfortunately, the hangover may prove to be proportional to the binge," he writes.Until now vague warnings about the pyramid nature of derivatives contracts have led to bland assurance from banks that there is no threat to their stability.Mr Buffett says the banks simply have no idea what their exposure could be. "When Charlie [Munger, his business partner] and I finish reading the long footnotes detailing the derivatives activities of major banks, the only thing we understand is that we don't understand how much risk the institution is taking."Derivatives are often complex financial instruments that allow investors to take bets on anything from share prices to the weather. Their range is limited, says Mr Buffett, "only by the imagination of man, or sometimes, so it seems, madmen". Enron was especially fond of derivatives, offering contracts that would be settled years in the future and claiming profits immediately..." physicalman (03/03/03; 22:17:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98824) *******392.5******* Please allow me to introduce myself,i'm a man of wealth and fame. Of course it was me who picked up another 30 tonnes of gold. How ironic from the same to whom i led to new lands where so much of the precious was recovered. Now that gives me the edge on all CB's at 16,530 tonnes. How easy it was to play this game in the last several years from those who sold me their most precious possesion for an improved station in life. Now with less than i it will spiral downward and my minions shall ride in to save the day, but only to those with the "mark" of cooperation. Pleased to meet you, won't you guess my name? ElGordo (03/03/03; 21:57:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 98823) IMF warns of UK housing bubble http://uk.news.yahoo.com/030304/80/dumn2.html Most IMF directors endorsed the Bank of England's decision to lower interest rates in February. But the IMF said monetary policy must now balance supporting domestic demand against the risk of a housing bubble."It was agreed that, going forward, the authorities should stand ready to respond swiftly to the changing balance of risks," the IMF said.Britain's latest real estate boom spurred a 25 percent surge in house prices in 2002. That left house prices rising above trend as a ratio of household earnings. Still, the substantial decline in interest rates has kept consumer debt service ratios much lower than in the late 1980s and the early 1990s, when Britain's housing market crashed.Nevertheless, there are early signs that the British housing market could be in for a rough landing, if not an outright crash. One recent report from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors showed London house prices falling at their fastest pace in nine years. London real estate prices typically act as a leading indicator of British home prices.And Britons have been loading up on credit card and other debts too. British consumer borrowing has surged so much in recent years that many pundits have predicted that rising debt levels could lead to a destabilizing crash.__________Sounds a lot like the US housing bubble.-----------Barron's article on Royal Gold is incredible. The guy makingthe valuation call was SHORT the stock. Why does Barron's evencare about Gold equities? The entire gold sector has a marketcap of less than one big tech corporation. Black Blade (03/03/03; 21:39:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 98822) Market Wrap Up – Puplava http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm Plotting A Dangerous CourseSnippit:The financial media buries the story. Wall Street seldom talks about it. Fed officials and economists see it as a positive development. I'm talking about the trade deficit, which is spiraling out of control. The US is now borrowing close to $10 billion a week from overseas investors to pay for consumption. Our current trade deficit is now 5% of GDP. A good majority of this trade deficit is with China. China is now a major holder of US debt. The trade imbalances and investment balances with China are now running close to $150 billion per year.Black Blade: What does China do with all these dollars? $150 billion is a five fold increase from the latest data I have from BCA Research showing a trade surplus of over $30 billion a year. At that rate annual investment in fixed assets has grown at an average of more than 20% a year since the mid-1990s. It is well known that Japan is losing market share to China at a exponential rate and therefore Japan is desperately selling its worthless currency in the ultimate "currency war" leading to destruction of its currency. For Japan it's a vicious cycle of currency destruction amid a failed banking system that simply exists only as a front. As for China the rising influx of US dollars creates a problem – especially as the US currency weakens and the Yuan is pegged to the dollar. It is no wonder then that a lot of these loose depreciating US dollars are used to purchase gold and increase the central banks gold reserves. Not long ago the World Gold Council assisted the Chinese central bank in determining a larger position in gold reserves as necessary for diversification away for an over abundance of dollars. As the flood of weaker US dollars stack up in the central bank's coffers it stands to reason that more and more precious metal must find its way to displace what is become a major liability rather than an asset. Where exactly do you think the Swiss gold and Portuguese gold has gone? Certainly not into the open market as physical supply remains tight. It is rumored that much of this gold as well as some South African mine production is going straight into the Chinese central bank. It is one way to disgorge the flood of US dollars for something of value. a nation of one (03/03/03; 21:33:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 98821) Reply to steady (03/03/03; 19:34:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98815) Your concern: "question would/ do governments misrepresent the total amount of minerals mined ? can they do that? is it possible? is it what mexico is doing ? just saying opppss silver production is down while all the time building a strategic stockpile with the supposed loss in production silver?"--Is it possible to misrepresent the amount of minerals mined? Absolutely. Can they do that? Sure. But look. The truth is worse than that. Anyone who has worked for a government knows -or should know- that not only are figures lied about as a matter of course, but, what's worse, they can't get representative figures to begin with, in most cases. The numbers of cars sold they can probably know pretty closely. But information that has to come up from the grassroots through a bureaucracy, never. Those in charge of collating the data routinely have strong motives not to pass on true information, or in cases where they would like to, they mess them up or figure them incorrectly, most of the time. More often than not, managers even filter out applicants for managerial positions if they are known to be unwilling to alter data when desired. There are occasional instances where an employee -or groups of employees- will handle data proficiently. But these are the exception. Further, the heads of agencies typically don't want true data; often they prefer data that makes them look good, when this is possible, and it often is possible. A lot of different types of data have this vulnerability. Middle managers, and managers in top positions often feel threatened if certain kinds of data are too accurate, or too clear, even if their work is not reflected in it. Additionally, most managers have little or no understanding of how data should be collected, or how it should be interpreted or used. The really bad thing is that government managers most often do not know what type of information to collect, in order to derive the knowledge which they think they want to acquire, or even know what it actually is that they are wanting to find out, usually choosing to collect some other type of data that is more impressive, though less relevant. Only a few government are schooled in bureaucratic principles. Most have degrees in such things as art and music, literature, or athletics. While these things a perfectly wonderful -and I meant that- they don't prepare workers for bureaucracies. China did better four thousand years ago, and kept it up until comparatively recently. And many private companies also do not report accurate information, when required to by the government, but some of them habitually throw together whatever figures they think won't get them into trouble. The US government can't even accurately count the number of people in a cozy place like New Iberia, Louisiana, population 750 more or less. How do you think they are going to keep track of every ounce of gold or silver that is taken out of the insides of our entire planet? Impossible. (I suppose I should state here that I always correctly report all of my income, as required by law, and pay every last cent of taxes due.) Pb>Au (03/03/03; 21:31:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 98820) Gold Bugs and Silverites A high school junior called my attention to the following in a textbook currently being used in a local high school and it pretty much says it all. I was asked to explain what this was all about.Did I have fun!!!!!!I hope this generates some lively discussion; it's like researching the Family Tree. Might be interesting if someone has time, to do a timeline of all significant events around gold."Gold Bugs In 1873 supporters of tight money won a victory. Until that time, United States currency had been on a bimetallic standard. That is, currency consisted of gold or silver coins or United States treasury notes that could be traded in for gold or silver. In 1873, in order to prevent inflation and ensure economic stability, Congress put the nation's currency on the gold standard. This move reduced the amount of money in circulation because the money supply would be limited by the amount of gold held by the government.Conservative "gold bugs" were pleased. Many of them were big lenders, and they liked the idea of being repaid in currency backed by the gold standard.Silverites - "Silverites," mostly silver-mining interests and western farmers, were furious at the nation's move to a gold standard. They claimed that the end of silver as a monetary standard would depress the prices of farm produce. Silverites called instead for free silver-- the unlimited coining of silver dollars as a means of increasing the money supply.The Bland-Allison Act of 1878, was for the silverites, a step in the right direction. This act required the federal government to purchase and coin more silver, increasing the money supply and causing inflation.Passed by congress, the Bland-Allison Act was vetoed by President Hayes because he opposed the inflation it would create. Congress then overrode Haye's veto. Yet the act had only a limited effect because the Treasury Department refused to buy more than the minimum silver required under the act. The Treasury also refused to circulate the silver dollars that the law required it to mint.In 1890, Congress passed the Sherman Silver Purchase Act. While not authorizing the free and unlimited coinage of silver that the Silverites wanted, it did increase the amount of silver the government was required to purchase every month. The law required the Treasury to buy the silver with notes that could be redeemed for either silver or gold. Yet as people turned in their silver Treasury notes for gold dollars, the gold reserves of the government began to be depleted. To protect the nation's gold supply, President Cleveland oversaw the repeal of the Silver Purchase Act in 1893."American Pathways to the Present - Prentice Hall Noble1 (03/03/03; 20:42:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 98819) ****372.7**** Will the real buyer of the Portugal gold please stand up!Contestant #1my name is jpmoContestant #2My Name Is JpmoContestant #3MY NAME IS JPMOQuestion to contestant #1--What did you use to pay for this gold?Answer: I electronically and digitally transferred the tidy sum of $XXXX million US dollars into the coffers of the Central Bank of Portugal. I'm sure they're more than satisfied to have this fiat currency as part of their reserves rather than that barbarous relic. I'm sure they're aware of our strong dollar policy and the ever increasing value of the USD. Just think of the value of the USD since 1971 when Nixon removed all gold convertibility. Oh, yes, I paid a fortune for this gold.Same question to contestant #2. Answer: Thank you for asking me this question. I didn't exactly pay for this gold. I swapped for it. Somehow it made sense for me to swap the gold that I have buried for the gold they have buried because I am not allowed to sell or lease my gold. But, now that I have their gold, and they have my gold, I can sell or lease it as I please.Interesting!Well Mr. #3 can we now have your response?Answer: These Bozos #1 and #2 don't know what their talking about. Those kind of payments work but they cost too much. I bought the 30 tons and paid for it with this here paper contract. What it says is that I really don't ever have to pay anything for it. Because I have this here other paper contract from this here mining co. that says they will replace the gold should I ever ask for it. Of course, the gold is in deep deep storage and it may take 15yrs. from the time I ask for it till the time I get it. And this here mining co. may or may not still be in business. And I also have the choice of giving the BofP those ever valuable USDs.Meanwhile, the physical gold is mine to do with what I please. Oops, did I say that? Of course I was only trying to help the BofP by taking this nonperforming asset off their hands. As I have no use for this stuff. Alright judges, let's have your vote. Is it C#1, C#2, or C#3?Remember: The more you research gold, the more you come to understand it's historic intrinsic value. Zhisheng (03/03/03; 20:27:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 98818) UP! http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s The dollar is the world's currency. Gold (when free of manipulation) is the yardstick of the world's faith in the quality of its currency. The dollar index is the gauge of the relative value of the dollar to that of other major currencies (which must undergo continual debasement to grease the wheels of politics in their respective countries of origin). The dollar index today has fallen nigh 1% and bids seriously tonight to test 99 on the downside.Whither then strives the price of gold? Logic answers… ElGordo (03/03/03; 20:12:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 98817) Financial sense today post http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm snippet:As a financial barometer of future storms, that barometer is now flashing a major warning sign, telling me a major storm is approaching. The combination of financial and corporate debt, consumer debt, and government debt is now running at rates over $2 trillion a year. It is now taking $4.8 dollars of debt to produce $1 in GDP. The government deficit is now running at an annual rate of $300 billion and will get larger in the months ahead because of war and another dip into recession. In fact, at the rate of which debt is being accumulated, it looks like we are surely headed for another depression. steady (03/03/03; 19:34:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98815) question would/ do governments misrepresent the total amount of minerals mined ? can they do that? is it possible? is it what mexico is doing ? just saying opppss silver production is down while all the time building a strategic stockpile with the supposed loss in production silver? VanRip (03/03/03; 19:11:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 98814) ****360.8**** I bought the 30 tonnes because I had an offer I couldn't refuse. I've made a down payment and expect to receive my bonanza in due time. 30 tonnes is a lot, and I really don't need it all, so perhaps I can interest some of you in the deal of a lifetime.You see, I recently received an email from the Colonel-In-Charge of Ports and Calls of the Nigerian Consulate in the Ivory Coast. He had a secret to share, and since it was so important, he could only share it with someone with an outstanding reputation of honesty and integrity. Me, of course. According to the colonel, 30 tonnes of Portuguese gold were sold to an American outfit named PIZZ, the Pacific Institute of Zany ZPA's, and shipped out of Lisbon on a small Portuguese freighter bound for New York. Just over the horizon the ship rendezvoused with another small freighter, one of Nigerian registry. The gold was quickly transfered to the African ship and replaced with lead bars coated with a fine coat of low-grade gold. The fake bars then resumed transit to the USA and PIZZ. The real gold was then shipped to Nigeria where it was secretly off-loaded and trucked to the colonel's farm. There it was buried in 15 holes, two tonnes for each hole. The colonel's plan was to dig up the gold hole by hole and sell it through unofficial channels in Africa, namely to a secretive but well known bunch of dopey, thieving marketeers, jokingly referred to behind their backs as the Inbred M..... F.....s - (IMF, for short). However, everything has fallen apart and come to a halt due to lack of funds. More expensive than he thought. Too many unexpected people to bribe and a little extortion too, I suppose. Of course, the colonel cannot reveal to any more of his friends that he masterminded the whole thing for fear he would be found out by officialdom and shot. So he had to go outside the country for funds to operate, which, naturally, led him to me. For my help, he graciously offered me all 15 holes, though he knew I would understand if he held a few back for himself. Understandable. All I had to do was send him cash for the gold at roughly one-quarter of spot, which included his expenses, by the way. He would then mark the gold up to close to spot and sell it to the not-too-bright and greedy IMF. The difference plus some of my down payment he would send to me... more than a double. What a deal, right? What a concept. Unfortunately for me, according to the colonel, the funds I have already sent were somehow mistakenly marked, which led to their confiscation by the local sharp-eyed Bureau of Incoming Shipments - (BIS, for short). Bummer, since I have to send the same funds again. I'll sure be more careful this time, for sure. Hey, these things happen. That's how you learn.Anyway, I sure don't need 10 holes worth, maybe one or two, so I thought I would share my good fortune with the forum here and cut in as many of you as are interested in this deal of a lifetime. All you have to do is let me know how many holes you would like, and I'll cut you a big break. Come to think about it, I better wire the PIZZ outfit to let them know they've been scammed with those gold covered lead bars and to let them have first dibs on this can't lose deal. Carl H (03/03/03; 18:52:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 98813) Former Treasury Secretary O'Neil and Kodak I read recently that O'Neil joined the board of Kodak. Former treasury secretrary joins board of the largest silver user in the world. This got filed in my mind as "interesting". This morning I put 2 and 2 together and realized that Kodak must have a stock pile of silver. If I were a suspicious type person, I might think that O'Neil was being sent there to mobilize that silver "for the good of the strong dollar policy". mikal (03/03/03; 18:50:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 98812) Tension, uncertainty dominates war scenario http://www.news.com.au Assassins in IraqMarch 01, 2003 -Excerpts:"US military special forces have been inside Iraq for months and aim to capture or kill Iraqi President Saddam Hussein within three hours of an assault on Baghdad.Undercover US agents, CIA operatives and special forces teams are already in place in and around the Iraqi capital, according to highly placed diplomatic sources..... In the past fortnight Saddam has: * ORDERED members of his depleted and demoralised air force to form a "kamikaze" suicide unit which will pilot Iraqi fighter jets September-11-style into enemy targets; * ADDED two new units to his forces - the Fidayee Saddam Army and the Special Protection Army. They join the regular army, the Republican Guard, the Special Republican Guard and the Alquds Liberation Army, ; * SENT senior officers of his Special Republican Guard to monitor the regular army for any sign of revolt; * ORDERED the arrest of key officers in the air force suspected of treachery. They have been sent to the notorious Abu Graib Prison in Baghdad. Three air force officers - two captains and a lieutenant - who refused to join the kamikaze units were shot last week during the traditional Al Adha feast; * ESTABLISHED a bio-chemical weapons training base at Al Naserieya, in southern Iraq for use as a last resort against coalition troops; and * DRAWN up plans for a scorched earth policy involving the destruction of dams, bridges and oil wells. Much of the insight into Saddam's plans comes from a former senior officer in an elite Iraqi Army unit who led an uprising against Saddam during the last Gulf War, Captain William Warda, who was granted political asylum in Australia by UN edict. Speaking yesterday, Captain Warda, who is now a senior official in the Iraqi Military Council, said the council was using a complex web of agents inside Saddam's regime to monitor the dictator and his military plans. "We have received this information from agents still inside Iraq and others who have escaped through Jordan," he told The Daily Telegraph.Mr Warda said agents had also told the council Saddam had sent spies to the US and her allies - including Australia - on terrorist missions. Saddam is so distrustful of his regular army he has starved it of resources, supplying only minimal stores of ammunition, fuel and food. Communication lines are also stretched, rendering regular army units incapable of attack and able to offer only limited opposition. Saddam has created a Special Protection Army to protect him from assassination. It is made up of his closest allies, including relatives, tribal loyalists from his birthplace of Tikrit and criminals who face jail should Saddam be toppled. Numbering several hundred, this unit will fight to the death..... Daily Telegraph military specialist Aldo Borgu said whether Iraqi troops would surrender within days of a US-led attack would depend on a number of issues including how well Saddam holds up and how effective the US is in separating the conscript forces from their commanders. Unlike America's opponents in Afghanistan, the Taliban and al-Qaeda, elements of the Iraqi army are regarded as testing opponents. "The people in the Special Republican Guard have been drawn from (Saddam's) own village. The people have ties to him by tribe and clan and a lot to lose if he is overthrown," Mr Borgu said." R Powell (03/03/03; 18:48:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 98811) Price report on a quiet night Gold +1.80 Silver +0.02 Now approaching what used to be refered to as The Far East. OZ (03/03/03; 17:01:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 98810) monTROZ (03/03/03; 12:35:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 98787) I hope you win the contest; your satire was really out of this world. great work. CoBra(too) (03/03/03; 16:05:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 98809) Derivatives, Weapons of (Financial) Mass Destruction! http://www.fortune.com/fortune/investing/articles/0,15114,427751,00.html Says the Sage of Omaha, Warren Buffet in a Fortune article, thanks to friendly neighbors of the castle.If this is so, Mr. John Snow should declare war on the 26 Trillion derivative position, a real neutron bomb of systemic financial destruction - amassed by JPM/Chase. The same JPM, which became again (in)famous with its deals with a group called Enron, providing some tax, accounting and other Mahonia Bush shelters? Real nice guys, and by looking at their history you'll be really surprised by finding these guys may have been pertinent to embezzle the US to join WWI (and II?), as well as financing the Russian October Revolution. At least according to E. Griffin, who's Creature of Jekyll Island is a must read. ... (I have to admit reading the book some 10 years ago and had a hard time believing the script - now with a 20/20 afterthought and rereading the recently edited edition it becomes tough to reject its premises and postulations).The only shelter for your ultimate wealth from W(F)MD's is only a 0800 # away - go Gold and Centennial - cb2, says he's been treated exceptionally fair by these guys. mikal (03/03/03; 16:00:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 98808) @Clink Re: C. Droke "bowls" His unique method is based on precise points on graph paper. Daily retrieved from the series of swipes and leaps of his chained feline, Fortuna as she reacts to "the people's stock picking channel". Happily, each play-by-play on the graph paper forms a reliable "message" that Droke translates into his "bowls"! Black Blade (03/03/03; 15:45:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 98807) Worst credit climate since the depression http://www.cfo.com/printarticle/0,5317,8894|,00.html Worst credit climate since the depression, says Moody's. Plus: look who's cozying up to analysts.Snippit:Turns out that fewer corporate issuers defaulted on rated bonds in 2002, according to Moody's Investors Service's annual study of global defaults and ratings performance. All things considered -- a neat trick -- that would seem like a sign that corporate health is on the improve. But ominously, Moody's says the total dollar volume of defaulted debt last year soared to over $163 billion. That's a 60 percent jump from the $106 billion in the dollar volume of defaults in 2001. "The duration and depth of the current credit cycle has eclipsed that of the 1990-91 period and, in fact, has not been matched since the 1930s," said David T. Hamilton, Moody's director of corporate bond default research.Black Blade: Looks ugly. The "New Great Depression" looms over the horizon.Off to the gym! Operative (03/03/03; 15:21:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 98806) @GoldnSilver2002 You write: "Everything comes to he who waits."I have yet to be entirely convinced that patience is a virtue. However, in the case of holding on to our gold, indeed obtaining more of same, will be profitable. Enjoyed your post. Clink! (03/03/03; 15:20:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 98805) Clif Droke sounds optimistic http://www.clifdroke.com/gold/g030303.mgi I must admit that I am in two minds about Mr. Droke. As far as his analysis is concerned, I would have to admit that he has made some good calls in the past (and not always to the upside). However, I just don't understand the whys and wherefores of exactly how he places his parabolae. Does anyone else have any thoughts ? Black Blade (03/03/03; 15:13:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 98804) Dollar Weak and Gold Strong The USD threatens to go sub 99 while Gold is up in after hours back to where it finished on Friday in NY. The dollar is under pressure as oil and NatGas rebound in after market trading. Royal Gold article in Barron's was often cited throughout the day in the media (especially CNBC) and that added a bit of negative sentiment to the sector during the trading session. However, the real story is not a particular gold stock, war in the ME, or any other market "dog and pony show" - but the weak US dollar and floundering equities market as the gloabl economy goes into a death spiral on the back of high energy costs amid shrinking supply. Without "cheap energy" there is no economy - nada - none! I find it amusing that the financial media trots out obscure analysts that no one ever heard of with no solid background to exclaim how there's more oil and NatGas in the world than anyone knows what to do with and that no one wants to buy precious metals. Who are these people and where did they come from? No one seems to know as the old familiar names seem to have disappeared. They also do not know what they are talking about. I for one have a more extensive background in the industry than these stock market touts and yes, there is a real shortage of "cheap" hydrocarbon potential and storage. There is declining production of precious metals even though there is strong physical demand that far outstrips current production. Central bank sales do not go into the open market but are generally logged into the ledger books of other central banks. You won't hear this story from the financial media infomercials and their phoney guests. "Interesting Times"- Black Blade Wild Hare (03/03/03; 15:10:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 98803) air travel with coins Thanks to everyone who responded to my question.I decided to bring only a portion of my collection on the plane. I put 4 rolls of european bullion coins (roosters & such) and 1 roll of silver eagles in my backpack.I went through security with no problem although they removed the rolls from the backpack and ran them through the screening apparatus again.Unfortunately, I'm in a position of needing to liquidate some of my stash. While this is obviously undesirable - on the bright side I'm learning quite a bit about the buy side of things with various dealers. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (03/03/03; 15:06:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 98802) Real wealth never goes out of style http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html
Q. I've noticed that USAGOLD / Centennial stresses education more than most of your competitors. Why is that?
MK. For years, we have emphasized "We educate first-time investors" in our advertising. We believe education to be the key to successful gold ownership. To make a long story short, we tend to keep our clientele as they become better educated, while many of our competitors tend to lose their clientele once they become educated. It shows in the type of services we consider important to complement our sales and delivery programs.
Randy interjects... Mike is way too nice to say this bluntly so I will. What I've noticed about the apparent rationale behind some of those other firms' operating philosophy is that, if they bend the client over far enough for their wallet the first time they ever do business together, they really don't have to care about getting repeat business. There is fresh meat walking in the door every day. It doesn't have to be that way, but some people simply don't take the time to shop around for a quality firm. They should.
Q. What are some of the criteria a prospective investor should look for in a gold firm?
MK. Credibility, longevity, pricing, service and compatibility -- all come into the mix. Of those I rate credibility and its sister virtues -- reliability and reputability -- the most important. Too many of the national firms have brokers who were selling condos at the beach or automobiles a month ago and now suddenly they've become "gold experts" selling leverage schemes, $50,000 rare coins, reproduction medallions at 25 times their gold content, or overpriced silver investments. Most sophisticated gold investors would probably like to avoid that sort of thing.
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