 Centennial Precious Metals Gold coins & bullion since 1973 Denver, Colorado 80246-0009 We educate first-time investors! |
for quotes and purchase information.
|
ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 7/3/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
DOWNUNDER
(07/03/02; 23:39:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 79884)
@ YGM - - - THANKS
Thanks for your comments AND for your research which is very
much appreciated --much more often than not. :) I too spend a fair bit of time as an activist,posting gold & silver related information to Jouralists & mining Co's.It's bloody frustrating & that's for sure -- but without it there would be even less of a turnaround than what's occuring.Keep up the good work Sir.
YGM
(07/03/02; 23:23:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 79883)
Of Interest....
A Small excerpt from tonites LeMetroPoleCafe.com
Excerpt...
AN INTERESTING CONVERSATION
CONCERNING THE EURO: While in St. Petersburg late last week, we had a most interesting conversation regarding the euro with our friend and client, Boris Sirochkin. We discussed the US dollar's recent substantive weakness and we discussed the strong tendency on the part of St. Petersburgers to have owned US dollars over the past several years. Boris said that in the past two weeks he's noticed something quite extra-ordinary.
Clients in Russia have called to ask him about changing US dollars into euros. He said he'd not heard that question asked before! Further, and more interesting still was that he understood that for sizeable transactions moving US dollars into euros, those wishing to do so were suddenly paying 1.01 at a time when the euro was trading .9900. Those making the transactions asked only "how much could be done." They apparently were quite willing to swap dollars for euros at a discount to the spot rate.... a circumstance heretofore seen as wholly unlikely, if not wholly impossible, and certainly wholly imponderable.
What have we learned? We've learned that the psychology of the dollar has indeed changed, making it more and more likely that the dollar's trend has indeed changed. Further, we've learned that the Fed's problem in managing the monetary base will become even more disconcerting in the future. In the course of the past five years, we've argued that the Fed has had a problem managing the base, for much of the base's growth has been due to the demand for cash... much, if not most, of which has come from abroad. If Russians, who've been perhaps the most assiduous holders of US dollars in the past several years, suddenly wish to swap dollars for euros, the base is about to implode, and we fear that the authorities won't understand what it taking place until far too late.
-END-
YGM
(07/03/02; 23:15:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 79882)
HAPPY "INDEPENDENCE DAY " USA
Truly the Home of the Brave & Land of the Free......
Only in America could an organization like GATA be born...
The American Constitution and Continuing Fight for Basic Rights, Freedoms & Truths is still today an inspiration to the rest of the world. Regardless of Politics and Government of the day, Americans have more than enough to be rightly proud of......Have a safe and happy holiday all ....YGM
"GO GATA"
R Powell
(07/03/02; 23:08:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 79881)
The JuniorMiner
May I suggest Butler's work, the SilverInstitute and David Morgan's work for starters on basic silver info. As far as I've been able to figure out, the most widely accepted and reliable(?) numbers come from GFMS's Silver Survey which listed 2001's deficit at 89 million ounces. 2002 will be the 13th consecutive deficit year. Most estimates guess that world supply is 300-500 million ounces including Buffett's 129.7 million and the 107 million listed as held by Comex.
The yearly production and total use are probably fairly well documented. What is unknown is from what amount of total world surplus we should subtract the last 13 years' deficit (about 1.5 billion ounces)? Who knew 50 years ago how much silver there was. Who knew or even gave it a thought as there was almost no demand then other than for jewelry and money? 5000 years of growing supply and then 50 years of massive usage to come close to running dry?
That this market can run an ongoing deficit without price rationing defies the laws of supply and demand. It is an ongoing puzzle. I'm constantly looking for the flaw in the scenario because if there isn't something we're overlooking, then someday soon the POS will skyrocket.
Hope this helps,
Rich
Mr Gresham
(07/03/02; 23:05:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 79880)
Big OOOPS! for anti-Euro side in Britain
http://msnbc.com/news/775811.asp?pne=msn
Using Hitler in ad. Big flap. Dumb, dumber, dumbest. What were they thinking?
Mr Gresham
(07/03/02; 23:03:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 79879)
RPowell
Rich -- good posts today and a good blending of two topics just below.
I sure hope they get silver to a sellable point sooner rather than later -- every time I carry it, the straining muscles cry out to me that "silver is a YOUNG man's metal, fool". I imagine that old men (the ones with the big fortunes) prefer gold because they can hold more wealth per handful, and aren't as likely to throw their backs out. ;)
At the same time, it's kind of a thrill to be able to own a thousand of something valuable, isn't it?
YGM
(07/03/02; 22:41:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 79878)
DOWUNDER......
How TRUE!
The POG is going to wildly fluctuate -- get used to it & if thats too hard to handle then don't invest in this area.
**If I let it get to me over the years and Dollars I've invested in Gold thru, Stocks, Mining and Physical I'd have ulcers on my ulcers...It a rocky road & not for faint of heart. Hopefully the road is getting shorter and smoother soon.....Regards...YGM
R Powell
(07/03/02; 22:33:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 79877)
Paper Avalanche// silver// straw men
I'm glad to hear that you have a fondness for silver. There used to be a number of silver enthusiasts here but I fear our numbers have dwindled. Silver news has been very scarce but both houses of Congress have passed the bill required for the purchase of silver for the Philly mint. This now awaits Bush's signature. The amount of silver necessary for the coin program is small compared to overall usage but the government buying will give evidence to the belief that the 4.2-5.8 Billion ounces they once had- are almost all gone! This may shock many. Sometimes markets don't budge from the disclosure of important information but rather from what many would consider less impressive news. The market doesn't know how much silver the coin program uses versus total world use. It will just know that the government, for the first time in the memory of many, has to buy silver! Many will ask, "Who do they buy it from, isn't silver made in factories in China?
*******
Concerning "straw men", pure disruption is easily ended as a code is required to disrupt. Unfortunately, I have another to remember as massive, endless posting caused one of my regular visiting sites to institute coded access.
I would think that those trying to instill doubt would ask questions very similar to those very new to the subject. How does one identify intent? When repeatedly asked "Why did POG go down today" almost every day, is our friend asking, "POG down today, what's happening?" I don't know.
Also, if we talk among ourselves only, we will have very few questioning some opinions we hold in common. Sometimes conditions change which should force us to re-examine (to reaffirm or change) our opinions. We should not, I think, become complacent and "set in our ways" in all our thoughts. Some (not all, I know!) are subject to change. These I refer to may be more trading conditions than beliefs such as that honest money helps insure liberty.
My introduction to the silver situation was through Butler. I questioned him all the way, even searching for the sources of his statistics and facts. He and Morgan are among the most knowledgable silver analysts producing information and opinions that I'm aware of but I question them constantly. I have too much invested both financially and otherwise, to not constantly "play devil's advocate" with their writings and my own view of silver. My point is that perhaps even "straw men" can be useful forcing us to answer questions, perhaps clarifying understanding through explaining or, perhaps altering a previously held opinion. Pure disruption can be unpluged and innane disruptions can be, as has been mentioned, ignored.
There hasn't been too much news about silver but I'm always looking and appreciate every mention made here.
Thanks to all
Rich
DOWNUNDER
(07/03/02; 22:18:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 79876)
@ PAPER AVALANCHE - - - MY SUPPORT
Just a short note to say that overall I support your alert re the postings you highlighted.My radar alarm also went off after about the 3rd post from Jimbo requesting reassurances that his investments in Gold were going to be "safe". I felt that "first time" the questions were very relevent especially for a newcomer to Gold investing. We ALL have to battle the wall of worry when our investments are going the wrong way -- even after 2-3 years experience.
Jimbo's questions were answered with kindness,patience and understanding by many experienced forum members & I applaud them for that. However it is not expected that a poster will continually need a moral boost EVERY time the POG goes down.After all the same basic questions are being repeated
and it's hard to fathom why. The POG is going to wildly fluctuate -- get used to it & if thats too hard to handle then don't invest in this area.
YGM
(07/03/02; 22:14:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 79875)
GATA Email.....Bill Interviewed by Jim Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2002/Murphy_B.htm
9:32p ET Wednesday, July 3, 2002
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
GATA Chairman Bill Murphy was interviewed today by
Jim Pupalava's "Financial Sense Newshour," which, with
the right audio programming, you can hear over the
Internet here:
http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/2002/Murphy_B.htm
Scroll toward the bottom left of the page and click on
"7-3-02 interview," below the image of a microphone.
Note what wonderful publicity Pupalava's "Financial Sense"
Internet site has given to GATA on this page. And while
you're there, check out the whole site:
http://www.financialsense.com
It has an amazing amount of information and commentary.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
sector
(07/03/02; 22:08:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 79874)
@RPowell It's Different now...
It seems to take much more to drop pog than it once did...
..the large spec longs are far more resolute these days because they know what id going on. The small specs still get whacked because...well...they are small.
Ordinary selling...it doesn't come with a neon sign for identification. But huge blocks timed at end-of-day or timed for obvious stock market stress points tell the tale just as Fed repos can be used to retroactively show that same market stress.
Why is it different now? Price discovery has occurred and the stock market is in an accelerating fall. Except for the Dow the other indexes are ramped down. The end of this World downward ramp is a Japan-like ocean bottom that will last a long time.
Can the cabal hang on? Sure but each new desperate move shows their position more clearly and attracts more sharks.
To me the main event is the final removal of Japan's savings insurance due in April 2003. The Japanese debt is growing and their economy is further being hurt by a stronger yen.
I think there may be a nationalization of banks there and a simultaneous deval of US and Japanese currencies.
Speedy
(07/03/02; 22:08:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 79873)
PPT
Can anybody answer one question I have!! The question is.... How many times in the last 21 trading days has the PPT stepped in to save the markets from the abyss?
JJ
(07/03/02; 21:42:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 79872)
Thank you Gentlemen & Ladies
for a largely tolerant & good humoured response to my stir, sorry, post, especially YGM & Mr Gresham - a pleasure to be ranted at by you, Mr G.
R Powell - Rich, I can't say by what analysis the gold newsletter author arrived at $270 as I'm not an expert. However, he did get the current downturn right, and apparently has quite a solid track record, so (I at least) feel it's worth taking on board.
One only has to look at virtually any historical long term chart - metals, stocks, whatever, to see huge, usually unexpected swings. Whether manipulated or not, it's still the market and is valid as such. As many wise folk on this board have stated, with all that's going on around us, a dropping POG doesn't make any sense what so ever, but it's there, at $310.50 as I type. It should be $330 plus, but it 'aint.
There are a million reasons why it shouldn't go to $300 or $290 or less. If $310 is crazy, $290 would be just a little crazier. But when the bottom IS in, when ever that is, you'll need a ride on the Shuttle to keep up with the POG as it accelerates into the stratosphere. USA Gold will wonder what hit them as they struggle to fill orders.
Gotta go now, I see some ice cubes...whoops missed that one...oops there's another, darn it they're getting close...
dodged that one....SPLAT..
OOOhhh my head....
TheJuniorMiner
(07/03/02; 21:40:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 79871)
silver/Sector
Though I started my PM research it has led me to be more interested in the story behind silver. I would be greatly interested in all your thoughts on this subject Sector. I find it interesting that there is much less above ground silver than gold. It seems to be running a annual deficit around 100 million ounces/tr for the last 10 years. When do you think the above ground silver will not be able to fill the gap between mining/scrap and usage
My father tells me he followed this story in the mid 80's only to get completly disgusted, as I discussed this subject with him a few weeks ago.
As in Gold, the hedgers and shorts are all over it. But silver has an increadble demand and usage pattern well ahead of gold.
Any thought about this out there?
PS.
Talk about accounting tricks. The Government has been buying US treasuries with our Social Security contributions. Uses the funds to offset the budget deficit. And just think, our SS funds are tied up in that $5 trillion debt that needs to be repaid for us to get our Retirement money.
YGM
(07/03/02; 21:37:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 79870)
mikal (07/03/02; 21:26:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 79868) Sector...
I'd like to 2nd that if I may....
And thanks to you for all your input Mikal....RPowell, you're steadfast and continue to amaze....I think you missed your calling...Cement man indeed!. What a place this forum. 'Crockagators' and all..YGM
R Powell
(07/03/02; 21:33:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 79869)
sector
I know the sellers have targeted the afterhours market and the last few minutes of trading time during regular hours. I also know you keep a careful watch on these occurances.
I'm wondering about the relative strength or resilence of gold. Does it take a larger number of block sell orders to depress POG now as opposed to a few years ago? Do you see this happening more often than in the past?
One more please, how do you differentiate between between the normal everyday selling and that intended only to depress POG?
Thanks,
Rich
mikal
(07/03/02; 21:26:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 79868)
@Sector
Re: msg# 79858 Thank you for that! It never ceases to amaze me what you can post.
Paper Avalanche
(07/03/02; 21:26:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 79867)
To Rich / My fundamental premise
Greetings Sir Rich!
I have much admired your postings with respect to silver. I too am heavily invested in the white metal to the admonition otherwise by those on the gold trail.
You ask what I embrace as the "fundamental premise" relative to my earlier post.
My desire in posting what I did was not to establish a specific dogma or other codified set of unquestionable tenets required by anyone visiting this forum to participate in the exchange of ideas. Such a desire would be exclusive, arbitrary and counter to our implicit goal (specifically to educate people that they are their own masters and gold is simply a vehicle to deliver them from their current financial bondage).
My intent in my post this evening was to inform those who may have only participated in the exchange of ideas on this forum only, that our advesaries are well schooled in the art of presenting a "straw man" argument to deflate the momentun of a current movement.
I would imagine that the number of lurkers to this site has grown exponentially in the last 12 months. I would also imagine that such a growth in interest on the part of such lurkers to liquidate paper assets in order to purchase physical gold / silver has many of the PTB horrified.
That said, how much further of a stretch is it to postulate that said PTB might pay people to actively participate in very popular web site chat rooms so as to serve as a decoy?
The good news is that all decoy measures are temporary at best and the big boom in gold and silver prices is only one to two months away.
Take care and have a safe holiday weekend.
PA
YGM
(07/03/02; 21:24:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 79866)
Speedy...
Big Dogs..."YES"...
There's a gazillion $$ sidelined right now and alot of it probably in money markets, not doing too well...Just wait til we see all that cash head for the PM sector...Make the Nasduck bubble look pathetic...IMO as with many folks here when the Dow & Duck fall into the abyss the stampede will be awesome to behold....Go GOLD & "SILVER"
"GO GATA"
Speedy
(07/03/02; 21:05:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 79865)
gold below 300
If GOLD drops below 300, I'm going to BUY 20,000 dollars worth of the shinny yellow metal!!!!!! But I personally do not see that happening, considering the BIG DOGS haven't started playing yet!!! Maybe next week we'll see some fire crackers go off!!!! GO GOLD
sector
(07/03/02; 21:04:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 79864)
@RPowell 20,000 all at once from a single source, the same source who sold at the end of Friday's trade
I too have seen the straw men on other boards to which Paper avalanche alludes
eom
R Powell
(07/03/02; 20:53:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 79863)
sector
If it weren't for the sale of 20,000 contracts, there would have been buy orders for 20,000 contracts left unfilled. This number does not seem unusual for the daily volume. Were these large block sell orders late in the day?
Rich
R Powell
(07/03/02; 20:39:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 79862)
Paper Avalanche
I find your reasoning intriquing.
You made a statement on a means (MO) that could be employed by "anyone trying to undermine the fundamental premise of the message being delivered by a specific source."
This implies that there is a "fundamental premise" of a "message being delivered by a specific source." This sounds like dogma or an unquestionable tenet required for membership to the club. Is delivering this message the reason for the existence of this forum?
"To undermine the fundamental premise" sounds like a serious offence.
May I ask what you consider that fundamental premise to be?
Rich
YGM
(07/03/02; 20:14:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 79861)
Paper Avalanche....
and now we have "the other side" of the story....
and it makes just as much sense to my addeled mind as any other....
Two lines tonite got me LOL....
"I'm short the GI (gold will visit high mid 200's before vertical climb)"
&
"If I have offended anyone, please note that I do not care."
Regards to you and all....YGM. (again the laughter starts in)
YGM
(07/03/02; 20:04:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 79860)
Hey JJ...
Now that's a Odd thing to post here.....
I'm short the GI (gold will visit high mid 200's before vertical climb)...JJ
**That comment comes seriously close to a comment that would get blasted out of the water by many on a pro Gold Forum looking for reality and fairness in Gold prices. Even moreso by the host who sells Gold. Who'll buy Gold Coin if they believe the price is going to drop 20%.....Anyways I did see humor in your post and I can laugh with you and at you and at myself....I hope 'Some' of your investments pan out but not all......YGM
Paper Avalanche
(07/03/02; 20:04:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 79859)
Psyops - Day 2
I humbly present the following post to all of the valued members fo this forum to whom I owe an untold debt of gratitude for enlightening me to the invaluable information found on the gold trail.
I come to you as someone who previously spent over a year's worth of time monitoring, studying and participating on a forum hosted by a big name search engine for those interested in a particular gold mining company. The reason that I posted the message that I did last night directed specifically at Jimbo is as follows:
The MO (Motis Operandi) of anyone trying to undermine the fundamental premise of the message being delivered by a specific source, whether website, newspaper, etc. is to call into question the validity of the information presented relative to other more "accepted" sources.
The most effective way to do so is to co-opt the same general goal of the participants in said forum and then distract them from the primary goal (as well as distract others from joining the movement). After reviewing the previous posts from Jimbo, I could not help but wonder why questions, which were easily answered by doing a nominal amount of due diligence, given the plethora of information supplied by this fine forum, were even being asked, other than to sew the seeds of doubt in what was being presented on this forum.
When I was participating on the forum at unsaid website, there was an MO that I gleaned from seeing the pattern of forum participation relative to the price of the stock and/or gold. In a nutshell, it was as follows:
1. Provide a hapless newbie that simply asked questions as to why either the value of the stock, or gold itself, should rise.
2. Provide a persona for a supporter of the hapless newbie.
3. Provide a couple of ancillary supporters (hell, what does it cost to participate in a forum)
4. Have said hapless newbie appeal to the emotional aspect of his/her simplemindness and post a message so as to make the person bringing such things to light to appear as intollerant.
This was the MO for a poster at a yahoo site (sorry MK) that sought to distract and disinform.
Think about it.
How many of the questions posed by Jimbo (and/or those supporting Jimbo - JJ and alanka) could have been answered by simply educating one's self by reading the gold trail, etc.? To what end does it serve to ask questions to which the answers already exist other than to sew the seeds of doubt in the minds of those who have migrated to this webiste for the first time.
If I have offended anyone, please note that I do not care.
Best regards,
Paper Avalanche
sector
(07/03/02; 19:54:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 79858)
@alanka Why Didn't Gold Go Up Today?...The short answer...
...because 20,000 contracts were sold today into our nascent rally.
Folks who sell 20,000 contracts on the day before a long weekend [1,000,000 ounces transferred] are on a mission to lower the price of gold.
There is no TA or charting skills that are applicable to today's gold market...only fundamental knowledge [As Bleak Blade advises] of the price suppression game being played out by the Federal Reserve and Treasury with aide from their side kicks, JP Morgan, CitiBank, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and others.
They have a problem in that the World economy is a wreck, stocks are being sold for money market funds and those money market investments are just now seeking safe havens so the bad guys want to make it appear that gold is a bad bet.
That dog won't hunt any more. The World knows what is going on. The World knows that the bullion banks are in trouble with their gold derivatives, not to mention their 100s of Trillions of interest rates derivatives [Which are linked to gold].
The corporate borrowing, as evidenced by the Fed's own commercial paper chart [At their website], reveals the inescapable truth that a recovery is way over the time horizon, deep into 2003...if ever. There really isn't a recovery. The Fed is misleading the World...just like World Com did. Ken Lay and Alan Greenspan are one and the same. The European scuttlebutt is that ALL the US government econ figures are bogus.
But the story of Enron, World Com and many more like them to come has long political legs since the Demos think they have finally found a resonating issue...so a blizzard of media coverage is still in the future, thus ensuring further investor angst and anger. As people lose their life savings they will revisit gold over and over until they satisfy themselves that it is better than the alternatives...which it clearly is.
This atmosphere remains positive for gold since the manipulation truth refuses to be bottled up. It is that truth that will embolden large and small to investors support gold and prevent any return to $250. The central bank lies of 1997 are found out…they have already sold their vaults nearly dry. They are 26,000 tonnes light according to BIS gold derivative data. They are carrying gold losses and counting them as assets an accounting scam worse than World Com.
As or the Russians who "Bought" a NATO seat with 40 tonnes of gold to rescue the Fed [Currently almost all gone], they are too sharp to be conned by the Fed much longer...indeed they are known as the wisest traders in the commodities world. Even now they are busy issuing numerous conflicting press releases about bank gold sales to obfuscate things. One says yes one say no. Masters at work. They will keep their gold.
The trigger event of the gold bull of the late 70's and early 80s was the sudden buying shift of Dredsner Bank according to Ferdi Lips in his "Gold Wars". this switch caught the market by surprise and Dresdner profited handsomely because they were FIRST. China may be the wild card. Nobody can predict the trigger...but there will be one...the continuing failing economies guarantee it.
We should all watch for such a switch. Maybe it will be Dentsche Bank as they desperately seek a merger with Credit Suisse. DB has $50 Billion in gold derivatives or gold loans they must pay back at market prices [Posted at the Cafe this evening].
Camel
(07/03/02; 19:52:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 79857)
Tibet - Population Transfers
mdgc says:
"Camel has surely never been to Tibet. Had he been there, he would not suggest that there are now five million Chinese in Tibet and that their numbers exceed the Tibetans. This is certainly false, blatant anti-Chinese propaganda from the Tibetan Government in Exile."
***********
Camel: (compiled from several internet sources)
I dont' know why mdgc would be surprised if the PRC could conceive of mass population transfers as this was common during China's mass settlement campaigns in Manchuria in the late-19th century, and in East Turkestan during the 1950s.
Manchuria now has a population of 75 million Chinese to some three million Manchus; Inner Mongolia has about 8.5 million Chinese to two million Mongols and East Turkestan has seven million Chinese to about five million Uygurs.
In the days when these countries were opened up to Chinese settlement, roughly 100, 70, and 40 years ago respectively the policies of mass resettlement and assimilation were quite explicit, and even in the 1980s Chinese officials were still referring to the great opportunity the western regions held for absorbing China's expanding population
Such development is seen as natural in Chinese world views and is also regarded as necessary and beneficial to the "backward" peoples who could gain from assimilation with the Chinese. It is, however, contrary to international law as applied to occupied territories.
In 1952, Mao Zedong said: "There are hardly any Han (Chinese) in Tibet".(Selected Works of Mao, Vol. 5; p73; China Reconstructs, Sep 1987).
In 1990, the Chinese Governments census figures from The Present Population of the Tibetan Nationality in China (Zhang & Zhang 1994) claim the total non-Tibetan population to be approximately 4.2 million and the total Tibetan population to be 4.59 million.
Tibetan Government-in-Exile puts the present figure a bit higher,upwards of 7.6 million Chinese settlers in all Tibetan regions and considering that the rate of migration has increased dramatically over the last 12 years, this number is probably closer to the truth.
slingshot
(07/03/02; 19:45:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 79856)
JJ
*******************************
Whoop! There he is. Whoop! There he is.
Slingshot--------------<>
YGM
(07/03/02; 19:39:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 79855)
JJ.....
Saw Your Post :>}}
Hey you know alot of what you said makes sense (I Think?)(I just skimmed it) But it's not a ass-kissin club here...If I screw up I could have a regular/long time poster jump me just as quick or quicker than a lurker...They may just do it with out fan fare by email...When some one jumps from the bushes with snide criticism or name calling well that causes response. When you have so much free time as many to post and continually throw stuff out there, well the more you do the more chance of offending someone whether it be sensibilities or ego, no matter it gets someone riled...I myself NEVER freeze anyone out because I may not agree...Mostly it's because I feel some else is better siuted to giving the reply or I don't have the knowledge to respond even tho I think I know they're wrong...We all do our bit over time to stand for something as in beliefs in gold and Cabals etc...Maybe at times I sound condescending (among other things)cause I've had my beliefs and attitude re: Gold Markets for years and I've seen dozens if not hundreds of new posters come and go....Can't argue/educate them all, much less convince them to think like me nor want to...We're not all (me anyway) that well educated or very prolific writers/deep thinkers and as such can give conflicting or confusing signals to some folks unintentionally...Just like your post and your looking for a reply or response from YGM...I'm not sure how to take it, really don't care all that much anyway but here I am giving you a long winded reply in the interest of keeping an even keel in this place....I like it here, some like me some don't, but unless attacked I keep my opinions of other posters to myself or go head to head...I left with last dispute cause I felt YGM had worn out and was worn out...Time better spent with kids...AND it was the name calling over the Rumour questioning of the PM story that set me off...I hate to see any poster go and I read all personal thinking but not all news posts...The personal level is the most interesting and usually has more effect than news...Anyway I gotta go aaaand I'm not makin any sense as usual probably, but one thing to remember is YGM reads JJ, Jimbo and everybody else here and I do have respect and admiration for those who take the time to inform and ask questions....No respect for name calling over civil repudiation.....YGM.
The Invisible Hand
(07/03/02; 19:32:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 79854)
Massaging of profits and the tax collector
If Enron, WorldCom, Vivendi, Xerox et alt. massaged their profits to increase their share price, did they not have a higher tax bill?
What am I missing?
Mr Gresham
(07/03/02; 19:30:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 79853)
Dieter's Farewell
http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=002DqL
"ParINg iS SUCh sWEEt sORRow Is it Not???? oF COUrSE IT is NOT!!!!! dILLwICk hYEnA!!!! hOW iN THe nAMe of tHE bLeeDINg eYeS Of diETeR CaN ParTIng bE SWeeT????? IDIot!!!!! hUh???? wELL??? gOOD mORniNG!!!! "
G: Sometimes the people you love the most hurt your eyes...
Have an explosive weekend, all. Independence is where YOU find it...
slingshot
(07/03/02; 19:26:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 79852)
R Powell
Troll catching
You are right. Gandalf has them under control. Jim Bob has a new refridgerator trap. Only problem is he can't find an outlet in the woods. :0)
Slingshot-----------------<>
Mr Gresham
(07/03/02; 19:25:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 79851)
The Master Speaks: diEtER
http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=002Dmf
Remember Wolavka here? An Internet personality is a work of art, indeed. The consummate actor, who stays in character, and fields whatever comes by his tiny opening onto the universe...
On a thread (chosen, for illustration, at random) titled: "What's the use? Why prepare?" dIEtEr spake thusly:
wHY???? wHY InDEEd!!!!! aS SOOn aS YoU WEre BOrN ThE TrIP tO tHe grAVe beGaN, iS THaT Not sO????? wHY BOthER brUSHiNG YoUR TeeTH????? tO IDentIFy yOUr coRPsE?????? vITAmiNS????? WHo nEEdS THeM????? TheY OnLY POstPOnE THe INevITAbLe, cANnOT YoU SEe thAT????? tO HeLL WIth EAtINg!!!!! wHY BOthER?????? iT OnLY COmeS OuT THe oTHeR EnD In a FEw hOUrS ANywAY!!!!! dIETeR Has NoT LeFT His BEd siNCE THeSE TruTHS BecAME SELf-evIDENt!!!!!!! wHY SHouLD He???????
-- Dieter (questions@toask.com), September 06, 1999.
Someday, the biography of the Net's most Excellent sites shall be written, and, yes, we deserve a paragraph or so in it. It is the people together who make it so, and their joy in mutually creating something, where there was empty canvas before. A juicy topic, a wise host, and away we go...
Black Blade
(07/03/02; 19:14:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 79850)
Inflation fears rise as trade deficit jumps, foreign investors flee
http://www.uniontrib.com/news/business/20020701-9999_1n1deficit.html
Snippit:
Shaken by Wall Street's growing scandals and sickly profits, foreign investors are pulling the plug on their U.S. investments, adding to an outflow of cash that tops $1.25 billion a day. Some economists worry that if the exodus goes too far, it could threaten the underpinnings of the wobbly economy.
"This is an enormous problem that will become unsustainable within a very short period of time," said Mark Weisbrot, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, D.C.
If the trend continues, some economists warn, inflation could roar back to life. That would force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, which in turn would slow the economic recovery. "Foreigners don't have to sell their U.S. securities to have a tremendous impact on our economy," said James Welsh, who heads Welsh Money Management in Carlsbad. "They just have to stop buying."
Black Blade: I alluded to this yesterday in the DGMR when I discussed how Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve were "caught between a rock and a hard place". Raise rates or not and the outcome is still dire for the US economy and the only two sectors that are likely to benefit are energy and precious metals. Energy because "cheap energy" will be necessary to kick start the economy and precious metals because of the safe haven – flight to quality aspects. Also, the threat of terrorism and war are much greater now. We do live in "Interesting Times".
Definitely a good article to peruse (see link).
Mr Gresham
(07/03/02; 19:03:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 79849)
Funloving Doomers on a Forum
http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001ypb
Well, I was trying to find the ones where music played on some threads, and cartoons danced. The Y2k'ers partied together, online, before _and_ after the dreaded date.
I can't even remember what "FRL" stood for, except "Fruitcake something League". Links are in this one to those threads, and I haven't checked them in -- years. See what happens when you don't buy a new computer often enough ;)
We fought some hard wars with the Troll Federation in those days, but y'know, they seemed to stay away from the party threads. Energy field around it, or some such. And back at work next day, saving the Universe or whatever, well, it wouldn't have been the same without 'em.
Next link, the Quest for Dieter...
slingshot
(07/03/02; 19:03:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 79848)
R Powell
Expect the Unexpected
All that I have read on this forum is the TA and fundamentals that Gold should move higher. There are the pullbacks resulting from profit taking and selling of gold into the market by CB"s or a shell game using paper to surpress the POG. The ride down to $250.00 POG was a learning experience for me. Should Gold slide down to $250.00 or below the outside factors, unemployment, high consumer debt, credit card defaults, mortage defaults and the general publics ignorance of gold and or unaceptance as a save haven for wealth, contribute to a compressed POG.
If the idea was to remove gold from the market to help increase POG, who will buy even at $100.00 per oz if they can not afford it. The time from point A to point B although elusive I feel is the controling factor. So as the POG slides the ability to accumulate decreases with unemployment, etc. Thus as we would believe more gold will be taken from the market it will actually decrease even at a lower price. Possibly defeating our intentions.
Lower silver prices since it would be more affordable will be the first to go. I will also take advantage of it ASAP.
IMO if gold went to $200.00 or even $100.00 I would not be so concern as to the price but, more concern what is going on around me.
Slingshot----------------------------<>
Black Blade
(07/03/02; 19:02:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 79847)
P is a fact, E is negotiable
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B628B54FC%2D7A4E%2D4652%2D9C85%2D802C95775252%7D&siteid=mktw
Amid the lies, stock market's retreat is gentle, so far
Snippit:
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - How many times, during the good stock-market days, did we hear chart readers tell us the market was saying we're going higher? And higher. Until March 10, 2000, anyway. And how many times in these bad stock-market days have we heard chart readers tell us the market is going lower? And lower.
Everyone's a Galileo. With the wind at their backs, chart-readers and other market technicians always seem to have a leg up on the rest of us. Yet their methods rarely take into account the so-called fundamentals of the 8,000-plus companies that compose the U.S. stock market. Technicians can quote you chapter, page and verse of statistics: resistance, support, volume, put-call ratios, moving averages and so on. Yet their work rarely relies on earnings, profit margins, market share or return on capital.
McAvity, who sees gold's price going far higher in this corporate storm, says "the worst corporate scandals haven't yet surfaced. It isn't over yet." A technician himself, McAvity's hand-crafted charts and numbers go back 30 years, and more. So he puts his faith first in numbers, and then listens to what the CEOs and CFOs have to say to investors. "My old favorite still remains: On the question of P/Es, P is a fact, E is negotiable," McAvity says about stock prices and their earnings multiples. In other words, how do you handicap a horse when the jockey is cheating?
Black Blade: Being one who does not follow TA, I think that those who do are finding it impossible to get a read on the markets. On the other hand, I tend to follow FA from a "big picture" perspective. However, I also have been very critical of the corruption on Wall Street with regard to the phoney baloney accounting and use of such nebulous standards as pro forma accounting (something that ORO and I debated in the past). If anything we have only seen the tip of the iceberg. Once the layers are peeled back we will seen minions of cockroaches hiding behind the phoney data. Where there's a few cockroaches, it's an obvious bet that there are many more. The SEC reviewed corporate statements and found that over 25% public companies make mistakes in the filing of their reports. They also found that most of those mistakes turn out to be significant and material enough to affect the price of the stock when the company is forced to amend their statements. In fact there are so many problems that match those of Enron, WorldCon, Qwest and Global Crossing that the SEC plans on auditing every Fortune 500 firm this year. The market meltdown is going to get much worse. Best get prepared for the New Great Depression.
R Powell
(07/03/02; 18:49:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 79846)
Troll control
Hey slingshot, isn't Gandalf in charge of controling amuck running trolls? I know he almost singlehandedly put the orcs on the endangered species list. I thought that's why he filled the moat with crocs, to keep the troll population down. Crocs eat them at night when they venture too close for a drink.
R Powell
(07/03/02; 18:38:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 79845)
Markets closed tomorrow
Of course, for the fourth of July. Are they open again on Friday and, if so, how many active players will show up?
POG got ambushed in the last few minutes of trading last Friday, probably to help second quarter final numbers, especially marked-to-market positions of paper traders. We've also seen POG attacked recently during the very thin trading of the afterhours globex electronic trading.
If someone(s) wanted to counterattack, what better time than now, with US markets closed tomorrow and likely very thin action on Friday and then another shot overseas next Monday before our Monday Comex open? This is just "supposins" but not impossible. Anyone got a few extra billion to buy with? If Soros really thinks, as he says he does, that the US dollar is going to weaken further by 20-25%, then what would he do to capitalize on this?
Also, concerning honor among thieves, what's to keep one or more of the big gold shorts from secretly positioning long? They must be watching one another like gunfigthers facing off.
"Well boys, are you going to draw them pistols or you gona whistle Dixie?"
Notice-- this post must be read, studied and memorized for future reference but no response is required!
Rich
R Powell
(07/03/02; 18:11:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 79844)
slingshot
Trolls are always getting underfoot, aren't they? Use ice cubes for bait in this hot weather and then blast them. Or just give them enough ice cubes and they freeze up entirely. JJ has a point (and I know there are opposing views) but it's still good to see someone laughing.
One man's opinion of all this is to have fun, learn and hopefully profit. Be careful with the clam dip during food fights, it stains badly.
******
Your question, if POG goes down to $200 or $100 will goldbugs buy more or become extinct?
I can speak for myself only, concerning the silver that I'm partial towards. Unless I can discover a valid and fundamental reason why the POS should be lower, then any downside toward the $4.00 or even $3.50 level will see me stocking up with more.
Rich
Mr Gresham
(07/03/02; 18:01:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 79843)
Thanks, JJ!
Good answer -- I'll re-read and try to enter a more festive mood -- always room for improvement, as you've said.
Also, sorry -- you got my rant for the day, after hearing of my wife's new spending plans. Lost a bit o' sleep over that one last night. Welcome, and let's party on from here!
darkhorse
(07/03/02; 18:00:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 79842)
just an observation...
"A week or so ago I posted, what I thought was very much on topic..." and later "...when I scrolled through next day, nary a comment!"
There's quite a bit of discussion that gets read and "digested" without any further comment...it's an arrogant attitude about your own posts/position (sound familiar?) that leads you to believe anybody has to respond
"The truth is more prosaic, Jimbo. As a 'newbie', if you question the 'authority' of the regular posters, or the general 'gold to the moon' philosophy of this board, either they'll blast you or freeze you out."
Yeah, a lot of that goin' on around here...you must have us confused with somebody next door.
R Powell
(07/03/02; 17:48:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 79841)
alanka // Moneyweb report // tomorrow's TV
Interesting. I wish he had given more reasons for his targeted POG $340 level. He mentioned the dollar's stength and equities which he sees firming or stabilizing.
I also wish the interviewer had asked him for an estimated POG target if the stock markets continue downward!
********
Quote of the day, received today by e-mail but the source does not give the date of the quote.
"Based on our model, we think the S+P 500 is more than 20% overvalued."
Abbey Cohen, Goldman, Sacks
******
For fans of Fleckenstein, tomorrow morning at 8:00 EST on the peoples' stock picking television channel. Also scheduled is an interview with Warren Buffett, I think at 10:00 EST (not sure on the times!). Sometimes when the markets are closed, CNBC has some interesting guests and plenty of time to get past the usual two questions and three stock picks.
Holiday tomorrow
So, for those not working, I can say
Happy Long Weekend!
Rich
slingshot
(07/03/02; 17:32:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 79840)
Gold to $200.00
Hold the stones, please.
Getting Blasted or Frozen and Trolls runnning amuck on the forum gave me a chuckle.
Look there Jim Bob, a troll running amuck. Think we ought to Blast him? Please excuse my weird sense of humor. Anyhow.
What would the world/economy/ banking/ debt be like if Gold did drop to $200.00/ $100.00. Would the Die Hard Goldbug become extinct or would his surroundings only enforce his belief in Gold accumulation?
Congrats to the winners of "Dark Visions". Enjoyed all the entries.
Gandalf the White
(07/03/02; 17:27:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 79839)
Sir Steady !
YES, and the Hobbits love ya !
<;-)
steady
(07/03/02; 17:08:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 79838)
ignored/not ignored who cares im honered
re Gandalf The Whites Question mesg #79803 are the truck sales holding steady? duno have to go ask the dealers. Thanks for including me though appreciate it!
R Powell
(07/03/02; 16:54:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 79837)
alanka // JJ
Alanka, I believe there is a corrolation between the POG and the strength of the dollar but, like most financial or trading rules or so-called truisms, this one too falls far short of the always truisms like the certainty of death and taxes. There are a multitude of other things influencing the price of gold. Actually, the dollar gained strength today- up 0.56 to 107.55 on mrci's dollar index.
Gold, if viewed as a political, monetary commodity, may move up or down over longer time periods (much like currencies) than other seasonal-type commodities or even the currently favored stock sector. Watching every daily tick and down may drive you nuts. Myself, I'm immune to it as I was certified crazy long ago.
JJ. One of the little tricks our minds tend to play on us is to filter out any conflicting or negative information or input that is contrary to our established beliefs. A position or belief once taken seems to bias our interpretation of any and all information available after the position is established. We cheer loudly when news is favorable or substatiates our opinion. We tend to overlook or downplay any evidence contrary to the position taken. This is human nature and must be avoided as a trader. The ups are cheered and the downs are viewed as another reason to avoid all paper trades and invest in physical only. I do not agree with this but it is the overwhelming view here. I believe the analyst you mentioned based his downward POG prediction on technical analysis. Many have discussed at length with no clear cut conclusion, whether technical analysis can be applied to manipulated markets. Certainly long term charts are flawed by the fixed gold price of past years- fixed by government and the London Gold Pool. Now the fix is covert instead of openly published.
Please correct me if his opinion is otherwise based and tell us, if so, why this analyst sees POG falling once more to test the bottom?
Thanks
Rich
JJ
(07/03/02; 16:45:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 79836)
Mr Gresham
I was trying to make a point and inject a little humour. Looks like I missed on both counts with your good self.
I won't respond to name calling. This IS a good forum - but it's not perfect and I believe my comments are fair & valid - and shared by others who may not be regular posters. Try not to be so sensitive, Mr G.
Have a good 4th July
Mr Gresham
(07/03/02; 16:25:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 79835)
JJ
"wouldn't join any club that would have me as a member"
Smugness is only one attitude. Being the clever foil who's always catching EVERYONE else off base is another. Oh yes, everyone has a closed mind here -- except for the one who gets to flog everyone.
Setting yourself up on a pedestal, of whatever type, is pretty easy to do on a quick Internet "post and run" raid. (Very few of that type stick around a forum for long, but it's VERY interesting when they do. I'm betting we have room for even that around here, depending...)
Being a troll is all in your attitude. Your intention, to move the discussion forward, or block it with your own ego. Most trolls do not recognize their own obstructive presence, and have to be removed. Sorry. (Some are quite aware, and simply don't care about others. Hey -- I hate freeway lane-swervers, too.)
"wouldn't join any club that would have me as a member"
The above statement applies to forums as well as cabals. And if everyone had your approach to collective discourse, there would never have been a forum here for you to run to, post on, and (?) run away from.
When a Forum gets to be about the Forum, rather than about the topic that 95% of readers are spending their precious time to learn about, then the moderators are letting a few cheat the many. I'm also betting they won't do that.
Basically: Don't waste my time. Nearly everyone here is worth reading, and on busy days, it means skimming over great stuff I'd love to spend time with. Bad attitude? Costs me my time, AND my patience.
It IS all in your attitude. Dissenting views? Yeah, that's tender ground -- anywhere. How do we approach it? Flog everyone, up and down? Seems to be your approach, and explanation. I disagree. (Can ya handle it? Show us an example, bro...)
Try to be helpful, is what occurs to me. Try to read what others have poured themselves into, worked hard on. Show your appreciation for what goes on. Don't expect more out of it than you've put into it. In fact, most of what you will get out of it WILL be your own work, just as in school. Waiting for others to cheer you up and down? Just doesn't happen as much as ANYONE would like it to. (That's why I try to start out on the Appreciation note.)
Something about the Golden Rule, emphasizing the "as you would have them do unto you," rather than the "Do unto others..."
Places to go, thing to do. Click...
JJ
(07/03/02; 16:23:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 79834)
(No Subject)
Testing... testing...he hasn't seen it yet, YGM
Canuck
(07/03/02; 16:22:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 79833)
What is happening to the dollar???
Why the sudden reversal and booming up again?
Carl H
(07/03/02; 16:19:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 79832)
alanka: Gold price.
The gold price is being manipulated. The Gold Antitrust Action Committee has uncovered a huge amount of evidence to support this claim over the past 3.5 years. I suggest you look at the link I posted in response to you yesterday.
alanka
(07/03/02; 16:09:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 79831)
gold report kamal naqvi
>Kamal Naqvi: Precious metals expert, Macquarie Bank
By: Byron Kennedy
Posted: 2002/07/02 Tue 21:00 | © Moneyweb 1997-2002
MONEYWEB: The gold price has been under pressure over the past week or so and to put this weakness into some perspective is Kamal Naqvi, He's the precious metals specialist at Macquarie Bank. Kamal, the last time we spoke to you on this programme, back in January, gold was trading at $286 an ounce at the time, and you were quite confident that gold would push through $300 sometime this year. But were you surprised by the magnitude of the rally?
KAMAL NAQVI: I have to admit I was a little bit. I think I was looking at prices getting up to testing $315 and suspected that that would prove quite a hardy resistance. But the weakness that we saw in the equity market, then in the US dollar and also the extent of some of the statements from gold producers regarding [indistinct] in hedging were a little bit stronger than I had expected. And as a result, I think it did justify it's move up to a peak of just above $330 an ounce.
MONEYWEB: As you say, gold did threaten to crack through the $300 level, It's currently back at $314.50. What do you think is behind this latest bout of weakness?
KAMAL NAQVI: It's been interesting, the latest bout, given of course over the last two weeks it's seen further equity market weakness. And with the WorldCom scandal, followed then by Xerox and of course pressure on the US dollar, I think that one of the reasons why we haven't seen gold react as maybe it might have was because of timing. We've come up to the end of the quarter, the end of the financial year for some organisations, and also coming up just towards the July 4th holiday in the US, and I think that we saw a lot of profit-taking from funds that were already long gold and, indeed, probably making up for losses that they made in other markets. So I do suspect there was a bit of a timing issue for gold The other issue which is perhaps more of a problem is that many of the normal market participants, the CTAs, the funds, a number of the bank traders, are already long gold and it really needs to get significant worse for them to decide to go longer and we are still yet awaiting a more general move into gold. But I still remain fairly optimistic, over the next few months, that we can still see a new high for the year.
MONEYWEB: You did talk about investor confidence. It seems to be taking a knock almost on a daily basis in America. Surely we would have expected a rush to gold, following the likes of the WorldCom disaster?
KAMAL NAQVI: Yes. As I said, I don't think the timing was one of the reasons why we haven't quite seen that push. I think post the July 4th holiday will be a far better time to assess whether or not we are seeing a more of a move from investors, and particularly from some of the funds into gold, and I suspect it will be a much better reflection of the underlying sentiment. But I certainly do believe that if we see a continuation of the equity market losses that we have certainly seen over the last couple of weeks, and more pressure on the US dollar, with only really intervention resisting further weakness, then I do think gold will reflect that further, and indeed gold equities will also.
MONEYWEB: Do you think we could see another attack on the $330 level, given what you've said?
KAMAL NAQVI: I do expect that. I have to admit, I don't expect it very, very quickly. I think that what you will need to see is a move for maybe some of the more generalist funds to be concerned about underlying values, with furthermore significant losses in equity markets – talking about 10% losses in that. And under that circumstance, I think you could see a wider push, in which case getting through $330 in towards my target of $340 still seems quite obtainable. I see that happening over this quarter, as the most likely time, and then perhaps easing back towards the end of the year, as I and I guess a number of economists are expecting some sort of recovery, stabilising equity markets towards the end of the year.
MONEYWEB: Is there any danger of gold falling below $300 an ounce any time soon?
KAMAL NAQVI: I think it's unlikely. One of the interesting things that I've heard over the last week or so was, with that push down on Friday down to $310 and indeed before that, were a number of reports form Asia of quite good interest, if prices fell towards that level. And certainly when we saw that fall on Friday, there were a number of interested buyers in Asia, and there were also a number of investors and indeed some of the banks that are interested buyers on a significant dip, like we saw on Friday, and I think there's enough interest to withstand what I suspect would be a fairly modest amount of selling. I guess that's the other point. Is it unlike previous failed rallies in gold. This time around, most investors are going to be very weary about short-selling in the market in any size, because clearly we are seeing quite a bit of volatility, particularly on the upside, and I suspect that will restrict the level of short selling.
MONEYWEB: And when you talk about Asian banks, do you mean central banks in particular?
KAMAL NAQVI: No. I'm talking about Asian investors, Asian funds, looking to buy [indistinct] Asian central banks. I wrote a note this week just noting that Asian central banks have moved into US dollars in a significant manner, ever since the Asian crisis in '97, '98, and the possibility that in the current climate and the uncertainty over foreign exchange values, that they might consider increasing their level of reserves from 2% and less to something more significant in gold. But it has to be said, there has been absolutely no sign of that so far.
MONEYWEB: Making a call on gold is also like making a call on the dollar – how do you see that moving in the second part of this year?
KAMAL NAQVI: I think continued weakness for as long as the equity markets remain volatile and falling lower. I see very little in the short term to see that changing, I suspect that the economic data are going to continue to be mixed. Clearly further earnings results and concerns about accounting measures are only going to add to some of the downwards pressure. However, as I mentioned earlier before, I think towards the end of the year, we certainly are expecting things to stabilise and the early signs of a much more genuine recovery than what we saw earlier this year, and we think that will give the sort of support to earnings that's required for equities to stabilise and to start to improve. Indeed, I think the dollar will follow a very similar pattern.
MONEYWEB: Let's move away from gold. The last time we spoke to you, you were also quite bullish on platinum. That's a call that's also proved to be pretty much on the mark. It has done a bit better than you expected, but do you think the fundamental outlook is still pretty good for platinum?
KAMAL NAQVI: I'm still reasonably optimistic for the reasons we spoke of last time. I quite liked the demand outlook and I think supply, while increasing, will not come on line quite quick enough to feed prices back below $500. However, I think it is fair to say that demand, maybe, in terms of industrial demand, is not growing quite as quick as I would have liked. It's been offset by jewellery demand, particularly in China, holding up much, much stronger than I would have expected. However, like with base metals, the strength of the recovery is going to be very important for platinum demand, in particular. And if this recovery is even further delayed than we are currently seeing, then I think that will put some downward pressure on prices, even where they stand today, given that a lot of the supply and increase in South Africa seem to be coming right on line.
MONEYWEB: The platinum currently at around the $530 level, where do you see it finishing the year off?
KAMAL NAQVI: I think we will see it higher, I think we will see it up towards $575. Certainly I would expect to see it above $550 on the basis that demand, particularly industrial demand, will start to be coming through quite strong. I think it won't be until the second half of next year that we will see a lot of this new supply coming on line. I'm quite optimistic that the market will remain quite tight over the next six to nine months.
MONEYWEB: That was Kamal Naqvi, he's the precious metals specialist at Macquarie Bank, and still pretty bullish on both gold and platinum. He says platinum could go as high as high as $575 by year-end.
YGM
(07/03/02; 15:58:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 79830)
Nick...
Your mailbox is too full....YGM.
JJ
(07/03/02; 15:58:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 79829)
(No Subject)
Alanka
Alanka, what I said yesterday may have sounded flippant, but it's true. Markets don't do what they should do or what you expect them to do. Logic doesn't apply to markets because they are made up of many many people and many many people aren't logical or rational. Just when you KNOW the market is going up or down, it does the opposite. The market has a mind of it's own. That's what contrary investing is all about. Now's the time to short gold because every one thinks it's set for a rise but the market will do what the market will do - and catch most people out.
alanka
(07/03/02; 15:49:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 79828)
Gold Price
once again please somebody out there explain to me why the gold price did mot move up today? currency under pressure dow was under pressure. when is gold going to go though $330-00
JJ
(07/03/02; 15:48:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 79827)
Jimbo Mess 79796
Nice response, Jimbo! (yr 79796) The really funny thing is that some of this forum's posters take them selves so seriously they really do believe that so called 'cabal' people are posing as 'newbies' on this site to post dis-information. That's a hoot! I can just imagine senior staffers at Rothschilds, JPM etc rushing to their screens at 8am to see what Paper Avalanche is saying today…!!
The truth is more prosaic, Jimbo. As a 'newbie', if you question the 'authority' of the regular posters, or the general 'gold to the moon' philosophy of this board, either they'll blast you or freeze you out.
An example of the former is a post from an Aussie poster a couple of weeks ago, fed up with people with 'attitude', who got stuck into YGM for being (amongst other things) condescending. YGM took his bat & ball, went home and refused to play anymore ( but after numerous 'No, Don't Go's', was persuaded to return to the fold after 5 minutes, thank Heavens!) Haven't heard much from the Aussie poster though. No-one wanted him to stay.Not in the 'club' you see.
The latter - ignoring you or freezing you out - is particularly effective, and I've seen several people try a couple of times, then give up. I think I can be used as an example:
A week or so ago I posted, what I thought was very much on topic, commenting on a gold newsletter writer who said the charts showed an imminent drop in gold stocks. It turned out he was spot on, 100% right, and most GS are well down. I genuinely wanted to share this with the forum, and also said the same author indicated a much bigger fall was possible, and the charts showed gold going as low as $270.
One would think this would be of passing interest to a gold forum, but as far as I could see when I scrolled through next day, nary a comment! It wasn't what most of the posters on this board want to hear, so ignore it and it'll go away. Actually, I don't have a problem with that - the board belongs to the posters, and if that's how they want to play it, that's OK with me. But I can't see much use in preaching to the converted, and that's what's happening - you become insular and just tell each other what you want to hear. Not much value there.
Along comes a Jimbo (or a JJ) and you get blasted, or ignored. So be it. "Cabals" come in different shapes, sizes & forms.
Disclaimer & Admissions:
I am not a Troll (haven't been fishing for a while)
I am smug (I sold most of my GS at the top.)
I'm short the GI (gold will visit high mid 200's before vertical climb)
I am not in the "Cabal" ( wouldn't join any club that would have me as a member)
Thank you Gold Bugs, & Goodnight.
misetich
(07/03/02; 15:46:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 79826)
Congress questions SEC reports
http://money.cnn.com/2002/07/03/news/sec_tauzin/index.htm
Snip:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A congressional committee Wednesday demanded to know how thoroughly the Securities and Exchange Commission has been checking the books of five U.S. corporations that in recent weeks have been rocked by scandal.
In a letter to SEC Chairman Harvey Pitt, Republican leaders of the House Energy and Commerce Committee requested SEC records and a report by July 9 on its policing of WorldCom Inc. (WCOME: up $0.12 to $0.22, Research, Estimates), Tyco International Ltd. (TYC: up $0.01 to $12.66, Research, Estimates), Global Crossing Ltd. (GBLXQ: Research, Estimates), Xerox Corp. (XRX: down $0.51 to $6.04, Research, Estimates), and Qwest Communications International Inc. (Q: down $0.23 to $1.70, Research, Estimates)
"The committee is profoundly disturbed about the recent string of allegations that companies...may have engaged in questionable accounting practices," wrote Rep. Billy Tauzin and Rep. James Greenwood in the letter to Pitt.
"We are conducting a full review of the issues surrounding the allegations of accounting improprieties and financial misrepresentation that have arisen in connection with the above-mentioned companies," the lawmakers said.
Tauzin and Greenwood asked Pitt whether the SEC reviewed any of the five companies' quarterly and annual financial reports from January 1998 until the date when the SEC launched investigations of each company.
They also asked about any SEC inquiries involving the five companies since 1998 and their outcomes, as well as for various records and correspondence involving the companies.
Finally, the lawmakers asked the commission to explain how it decides to investigate companies and how it decides which companies' financial records to review closely.
Misetich
While congress is at it, perhaps they should ask themselves why they're not investigating GATA and Reg Howe's claims on gold manipulation
Got gold?
misetich
(07/03/02; 15:38:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 79825)
Equitable may pull all funds out of equities
http://money.independent.co.uk/personal_finance/invest_save/story.jsp?story=311750
Snip:
Equitable Life is considering moving almost all of its funds out of the equity markets in a move that would, in effect, end its life as a with-profits fund.
The society, which slashed policy values on Monday by a further 20 per cent partly because of the continued fall of the FTSE 100, hinted yesterday that it might reduce the number of equities it holds to practically nothing in an attempt to create some stability for beleaguered policyholders.
Misetich
Times are changing- Best move by Equitable - better move would be to buy some gold for their portfolio
Got gold?
misetich
(07/03/02; 15:31:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 79824)
Bush failed to follow US law on shares
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_2091000/2091642.stm
Snip:
The White House has acknowledged that President Bush failed to follow the US law and disclose details of shares he sold when he was a company director.
A spokesman blamed it on a clerical mistake by company lawyers.
The US President's business dealings have sparked renewed interest since the accounting irregularities at WorldCom were revealed last week.
After those problems were announced, Mr Bush said he was angry with company directors who abused their position.
Now his own actions have been called into question.
Misetich
Old motto: Do as I say, not as I do
Got gold?
sector
(07/03/02; 15:04:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 79823)
@Jimbo Actually, You CAN Place Precious Metals in Your IRA Account
There's just a Mountain of paperwork.
Your broker can get the rules and it pays to be physically near your broker's office AND the depository location for your metal.
Think of it as being similar to getting a driver's license.
misetich
(07/03/02; 14:48:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 79822)
Searching for hints of "US economic recovery" - Bankruptcies Continue Surge
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APSMxWRaNQmFua3J1
Snip:
Washington, July 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. corporate bankruptcies are headed for a second straight record year after filings by Adelphia Communications Corp., Global Crossing Ltd. and Kmart Corp.
Last year, 255 publicly traded companies, led by Enron Corp., put $260 billion of assets under court protection, almost triple the record that stood for a decade. So far this year, 113 companies with $149 billion in assets have filed, according to BankruptcyData.com. WorldCom Inc., which listed $103.8 billion in assets in a May Securities and Exchange Commission filing, may seek Chapter 11 protection after hiding costs to boost profits.
............
Based on the $40 billion of junk bonds that have defaulted this year, Altman predicts about a 12 percent default rate in all of 2002. That's compared with last year's record 9.8 percent rate, representing about $64 billion of debt.
``There's about $750 billion of distressed and defaulted debt out there,'' Altman said. ``That's more than Italy's gross domestic product or about three-quarters of Great Britain's GDP.''
Misetich
Finally found one industry who is leading the recovery - receivers and auctioneers
-750 billion of distressed and defaulted debt! and we ain't seen nothing yet!
Got gold?
misetich
(07/03/02; 14:40:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 79821)
Qwest's Junk Bond Credit Rating May Be Cut by Moody's
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APSNK2xUmUXdlc3Qn
Snip:
New York, July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Qwest Communications International Inc.'s junk credit rating may be lowered by Moody's Investors Service on concern that it won't be able to sell assets or obtain financing to pay $5.6 billion in debt in the next year.
The biggest local phone company in 14 western U.S. states has had eight consecutive quarterly losses and is under federal investigation for its accounting. Qwest, whose sales dropped 14 percent in the first quarter, is rated Ba2 by Moody's.
...............
Bookkeeping
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is probing the bookkeeping of Qwest, which has said it may restate three years of results. The SEC is examining Qwest's accounting for transactions in which the company sold capacity on its fiber-optic network to rivals such as Global Crossing Ltd. and bought back a similar amount. Some investors have questioned whether the company engaged in the so-called swaps only to inflate sales. Qwest says its books were proper.
The company said in an April SEC filing that the investigation ``may have a material effect on Qwest's reported net income or earnings per share,'' from 1999 through 2001. Qwest also revised last year's revenue down, resulting in a wider loss.
Misetich
``may have a material effect on Qwest's reported net income or earnings per share,'' from 1999 through 2001.-
Wouldn't want to be Qwest banker or bondholder
Got gold?
Black Blade
(07/03/02; 14:40:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 79820)
Reason For Positive Market
The Trolls on CNBC say the reason that the markets rallied was because Home Depot shares jumped higher. I know the real reason though - There were no corporate or accounting scandals exposed today! ;-)
- Black Blade
Chap X
(07/03/02; 14:02:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 79819)
Carl H / BB - Re last post
Meant to say... SELL SHORT on 100's of these "values", although puts as well....
X
Chap X
(07/03/02; 13:58:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 79818)
Carl H / BB - Aint it the truth!!
And the Dow comes back from a 100+ negative to a positive close!
Simply amazing!
Wish I had a enough cash to buy puts on hundreds of these "great values". In a short time from now, a fortune will be made as a result.
Hope you all have a good 4th!
X
Black Blade
(07/03/02; 13:50:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 79817)
Re: CarlH
The markets would like to see the Dow hold above the psychological level of 9,000 and the S&P above 948. The investment house coalition and governing agencies(President's Working Group on Financial Markets)are moving a lot of cash around. The trading volumes have been much higher over the last few days - although over half that yesterday was selling WorldCon shares. Looks like these psychological levels will be defended going into the weekend. It is "entertaining" though. Cheers!
- Black Blade
Got to get goodies together for tomorrow (ice, Negra Modelo and mammal flesh).
TownCrier
(07/03/02; 13:49:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 79816)
Commentary plus an idle thought to kick around...
Yesterday, Rhona O'Connell of the WGC (www.gold.org) offered the following comments on the gold market. It might be helpful perspective for any physical gold owner that finds themselves unduly rattled by the downward drift in gold price these past couple days:
"Funds were buyers throughout the New York session and the physical market in the Middle East has also been a buyer over the past 24 hours. This is constructive, given that price-sensitive physical markets normally stand aside in periods of volatility; this time the fall has generated bargain hunting.
"A similar situation applies in India...
"Indian traders are reporting that the recent fall in gold prices has rejuvenated the local market, with daily imports of ten tola bars, the favoured investment product, rising to 12,000-15,000 in the past few days. In early June imports had fallen to between 1,000 and 2,000 bars per day with demand being fed by locally recycled supply. The average in June and July 2001 was approximately 16,000 bars per day."
-------(end of WGC excerpt)--------
Additionally, the idle thought I wanted to toss out for general scorn and ridicule has to do with the generally accepted PPT ("Pluge Protection Team") of the federal government in conducting market interventions to help stabilize (or at least attenuate) adverse effects of market gyrations.
Just the other day I posted two Reuters articles regarding how the bond market has been a primary beneficiary these days from the weakness in the stock market. The reason I posted them at the time was merely to call attention to the oddity that bonds (long-term dollars) could be strengthening even as the spot-dollar (currency) was weakening -- both conditions being attributed to consequences of investor aversion to the risks in the U.S. stock market.
Intuition would have you think that as the bond market rallied, the spot-dollar would ultimately benefit, too; stocks (up or down) be damned.
Having said that, given the government's choice to "save" one market or the other, it seems to me that the bond market (being the bigger and more important of the two) would be the logical choice.
If you have in the past been willing to consider the PPT intevening to "buy" the stock market, is is really so big a leap for you to consider, possibly, that they might also (at critical times for the bond market and for the dollar itself) intervene to "sell" to help induce a broader stock market selloff? The small tail of the stock market thus being used negatively to wag the big dog of the bond market positively?
Whatever you choose to believe, there is no end to the possible paper games that can be played with you -- assuming that you are among the players at the table.
The comforting thing about physical gold is that you know the limitations (of its paper substitutes) can be streched only so far before the crisis/contraction returns value recognition (and prices) to be based upon the ownership of the physical supply only, not the imaginary contracted supply.
R.
Black Blade
(07/03/02; 13:41:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 79815)
Bankruptcy Filings Continue to Surge Even as Economy Improves
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APSJ4sxauQmFua3J1
Snippit:
Washington, July 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. corporate bankruptcies are headed for a second straight record year after filings by Adelphia Communications Corp., Global Crossing Ltd. and Kmart Corp. Last year, 255 publicly traded companies, led by Enron Corp., put $260 billion of assets under court protection, almost triple the record that stood for a decade. So far this year, 113 companies with $149.3 billion in assets have filed. WorldCom Inc., with $103.8 billion, may seek Chapter 11 protection after acknowledging it hid expenses to boost profits. The recovering economy hasn't been enough to stem a bankruptcy trend fueled by corporate scandals and the collapse of last decade's speculative bubble. Reckless optimism created excess capacity in industries such as telecommunications, experts say.
``The worst isn't over by any means,'' said Ken Buckfire of the investment banking firm Miller, Buckfire Lewis & Co. ``I don't see any decrease in the volume of bankruptcies for the next year- and-a-half to two years.'' ``I've never seen the magnitude and the concentration of financial failures in such a short period of time,'' said corporate lawyer David Heiman of Jones, Day, Reavis & Pogue, who has handled some of the biggest Chapter 11 restructurings. ``There are some huge companies where the value has simply evaporated.''
Black Blade: And some "economic recovery" it is too. Meanwhile corporate earnings are falling, debt is rising, more people are added to the unemployment rolls, bankruptcies are on the rise, investor and consumer confidence is low, etc. So far we only have the warts that we can see. We await the quarterly earnings announcements. The shills continue to remark that bankruptcy (or unemployment, or whatever you want to insert) are lagging indicators. Well guess what? These indicators have been lagging going on three years now. The US economy can't stand much more "lagging". I think that during the Great Depression there was a lot of "lagging" as well. In fact the economy was just "lagging" for several years.
Carl H
(7/3/02; 13:05:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 79814)
PPT at work!
After spending most of the day negative, now the DJIA is positive. Looks like we will have a >9000 close for the holiday weekend.
Mr Gresham
(7/3/02; 12:53:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 79813)
Bugos from yesterday
http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=13113
Jimbo -- I second what YGM said. Your #79796 gives us that attitude correction reminder of the steps we took and other people must take: "sincerity and knowledge to undo the cabal's work".
Pizz -- you're belting 'em out today. "If LTCM...", "takes a team 2 years to clean up a small corporation", "Kind of like a forest fire out of control. You'll probably have to backfire half the assets to save the other half." (Forest fire analogy may be the image for this season, eh?) Insurance companies driving paying customers away 'cause their stock portfolios are down? Awww-w-w-w, weally? Poor baby!
barnaclebob -- Thanks for presenting the Islamic perspective for July 4 -- we need the regular eye-opener on that.
Bugos: (on the RBC flap): "The covert mandate of any central bank that intends on surviving the long term is to sustain the inflation and persuade the market that its currency is better than the one it (the market) might otherwise choose...the economic fact that the Fed's notes (US dollar) compete with gold for the prestigious role that money plays in any economy - to facilitate the free exchange of goods and services...
"To believe that central bankers are really willing to sell the rest of their gold reserves is what requires religion, for it is their only ammunition. Though they've been robbing us with a blank gun for years, it is paramount that people believe the gun is loaded.
"You see, it isn't the gold bulls that are religious, folks. It's the paper preachers that are. They are the ones constantly preaching falsities to solicit our full faith & credit.
" 'Buy and hold; Buy the dips; Stocks are not expensive over the long term; the dollar is money; money supply has to grow with the economy; inflation is measured by price indexes; aggregate computing power determines productivity; Greenspan is a capitalist.'
"These things are largely false but can work to an extent if we believe they will. They can all be made true by the economic participant's willingness to offer his or her faith. "
G: Faith is the ultimate valuer of an asset. What will people get up in the morning and go to work for? If one asset abuses their faith in it, they will move to another.
Pizz
(7/3/02; 12:27:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 79812)
YGM
That machine in my opinion has only been flashing two words.
GOT GOLD?
And the Vatican probably has plenty.
Pizz
YGM
(7/3/02; 12:12:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 79811)
If Only We Could Rent It From Vatican.....
http://www.ncbuy.com/news/wireless_news.html?qdate=2002-06-28&nav=VIEW&id=6F201I9E5U7020628
Just to see the next couple months Financial Pages :>}
Pizz
(7/3/02; 12:00:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 79810)
Town Crier
Randy, thanks, but I'm laughing and crying at the same time.
The most profound statement (to me) over the last year was one that Belgian made during a discussion of Central Bank Gold reserves and my comment that we would go to a gold standard (I wasn't as "enlightened" as I am now.) He stated something to the effect that the US would probably hang on to our collective arrogance to the bitter end.
Hard to argue both your cartoon and his comment, nor will I try.
Thanks for the chuckle.
Pizz
admin
(7/3/02; 11:56:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 79809)
The Daily Specials Board: For Immediate Delivery. . . .
The catch?
You can only find out what they are (and the prices) by picking up the phone. You'll want to speak with any one of these friendly folks:
Marie Ballard (ext.106)
Jonathan Kosares (ext.110)
George Cooper (ext.102)
First Come, First Served. Limited daily quantities of each item for immediate delivery. Items will come off the SPECIAL board as they are sold out.
Call us toll free (800) 869-5115
TownCrier
(7/3/02; 11:41:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 79808)
Now THAT is funny!
http://www.non-sequitur.com/comics/2002/july/0703.jpg
I received this today from a friend, and now hasten to pass it along, without further comment, for a special group of my friends and kinsmen here.
And to that small list of names I have in mind I say: I am sure you will take this precisely as I did -- bent over with laughter.
"Would you like fries with that standard?"
Randy
Pizz
(7/3/02; 11:22:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 79807)
Gandalf
Re: The Pacific NW. Yes, things are pretty bad out here. Boeing didn't move their corporate headquarters to Chicago for drill, and our dot.com Eastside surrounding Microsoft is being decimated. We're also pretty big on bio-tech, and that's starting to head south. Consider us the canary in the mine.
But my post was not meant to be regional. Look at the charts of all the European Stock Markets, and the dollar.
Every one has broken major neckline support and everyone seems to be heading for cash. THE STOCK MARKETS OF THE WORLD ARE LEADING INDICATORS, NO MATTER WHAT THE PTB TELL YOU. THEY ARE NOT DISCOUNTING ANY KIND OF GRADUAL RECOVERY. They're dicounting something bigger than any of us have seen.
If LTCM darn near took the world's financial markets down, what does anyone think is happening when our markets are down trillions, Europe down trillions, etc. Keep in mind, that these assets are part of our world-wide fractional banking system, insurance company reserve assets, pension fund assets, and on and on.
You cannot have ten's of trillions of dollars of asset value that are collateral for nearly everything just disappear without dire consequenses-because the liabilities are still there. Granted, we have derivitives that are supposed to insure against risk. But who is going to pay??
My guess is it will be the US government, cause it makes sense.
If my comments regarding a trigger device bother people, sorry. The mess is to big to clean up. It takes a team 2 years to clean up a small corporation, and that's with the resources and assets to do it. How do you clean up half of corporate America plus the government? You can't. Kind of like a forest fire out of control. You'll probably have to backfire half the assets to save the other half.
Something very big this way come, and again just MHO.
Pizz
YGM
(7/3/02; 10:55:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 79806)
Black Blades Previous Post,..... Deserves a repost....."A Strong Heads Up" Report.
http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/2002/July-2002/derivatives030702.htm
***BTW...BB...Thanks for all your hard work here...YGM
Repost:
Date : July 3, 2002
North American Banks Under Growing Pressure From Gold Derivative Positions.
When someone returns to the bosom of their family after a long spell in jail reactions range over the whole spectrum. Some relations reject that person on the grounds that shame has been brought on the family; some ignore him as they find the situation embarrassing; some are over- effusive; and some are constructive and welcoming. So it is with gold. It has been off the financial scene for fourteen years or so and, as Andy Smith of Mitsui Precious Metals pointed out recently, it is not easy to think of gold from a bullish perspective after being a bear for all that time.
Last Friday was a case in point. The price of gold fell sharply and there was a shrill ululation from bankers and analysts claiming that the whole performance by gold in recent months was nothing more than a spike. Few of them, presumably, read the sanity written by Rhona O'Connell in her daily gold commentary from the World Gold Council on the following Monday: "After a steady morning in London, and opening in New York in a reasonably buoyant condition, the mood changed in gold at the end of New York trading last Friday with a rapid fall in prices towards the close of trading. Dealers report that volume was light, but the move was extremely fast and involved some stop-loss selling as key technical levels were severed. Prices fell by $5/ounce and regained $3 in as many minutes, before further liquidation developed in the Far East. Physical demand is in evidence at prevailing levels and with the dollar again under pressure in London this morning, conditions have calmed."
No signs of panic here from Ms O'Connell, just a report on a volatile market. Nobody in their right mind expects the price of any commodity, be it gold or pork bellies, to go up in a straight line. Profit takers always make an appearance and a correction results. In the gold market there is the added influence of international official intervention against leading currencies. In her gold commentary Rhona O'Connell said that, " The Fed and the ECB are both reported to have intervened in the currency markets last Friday in order to bolster the dollar, which looked above ¥120, but is now again below that level and under some pressure." Those with longish memories will remember just how useless such intervention proved to be in the last currency crisis - if anything it provided fuel for the flames.
This interplay between gold and paper currencies may be of academic interest to commentators, but is life and death to banks who have been making money in derivatives all the time gold has been in a bear market. Now the game has changed and a fascinating article has been published on a website called 321gold.com which claims that JP Morgan Chase & Co had notional amounts of derivative contracts outstanding which amounted to US$23.5 trillion as at the end of December 2001. To put this in context, the GDP of the United States is roughly US$10 trillion. And according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency JP Morgan had over US$41 billion of gold derivatives in this figure which represents around 65 per cent of all the gold derivatives held by US banks.
It also represents 149 million ounces of gold based on the price of US$279/oz as it then was. This is more than ten times the amount of UK gold sold by our deluded Chancellor between July 1999 and March 2002. There is little doubt that his action helped to keep a lid on gold during the period, so what chance would JP Morgan have of retrieving its position without sending the price through the roof? The figures above are the gross outstandings and no one knows the exact the position. Common sense, however, dictates that they were running a short book and the squeals from JP Morgan analysts every time the gold price rises confirm this. If this is the case the derivatives book could implode if gold rises to a certain level and there are guesstimates circling the market that it is no more than US$340/oz.
Small wonder then that the Royal Bank of Canada got its knickers in a twist recently when John Embry, a senior director who runs its Royal Precious Metals Fund, issued a report suggesting that central banks have, indeed, conspired to keep the price of gold low. RBC's position is nowhere near as big as JP Morgan's as it had total outstanding derivatives of only US$1.2 trillion and is one third the size. Nevertheless an implosion would do serious damage on a scale that is reflected in its decision to retract this research report which suggested that the price of gold is set for further steep rises.
This was a remarkably naïve reaction as all it did was put the spotlight on RBC's vulnerability to gold. By so doing RBC raised memories of a certain Dinsa Mehta who was with JP Morgan for a long time and ran its gold book. Suddenly he was not there any more and the mystery of his departure led to rumours, doubtless wholly unjustified, that he had done a Keatley on the hedging position. Mark Keatley was the finance director who ran Ashanti's gold hedging programme which brought the company to its knees three years ago. In such circumstances these banks should take a lead from London stockbrokers Cazenove which simply closed ranks when under pressure during the Guinness fiasco. Panic is not a pretty sight.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
kludge
(7/3/02; 10:54:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 79805)
(No Subject)
Hard to believe spot will close down going into a 4 day weekend in the US, particularly with stocks down and concerns of terrorism over the 4th. Ah well, think I'll add a little to the collection today, better safe....
BTW, Jimbo's NOT a cabal member - he's never at the meetings.
The Hoople
(7/3/02; 10:50:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 79804)
Pizz
"1/2 the coverage at twice the price" - isn't that a 400% increase? My business is experiencing exactly this scenario.Dittos for health insurance. My agent after feebly blaming 9/11 admittted when I presed him it was poor investments just like you said. We have hyper-inflation of certain sectors yet rigged CPI's and PPI's mask the fraud. Imagine what scary things would happen to entitlements if they were being raised 10- 15% annually. No way they can reveal true inflation. It's as if gold is the only exit from the burning building and they are trying to seal it off to make sure no one gets out alive. At least we know where the door is.
Gandalf the White
(7/3/02; 10:39:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 79803)
WOWSERS Sir Pizz !! Are things really THAT "good" out there ?
Pizz (7/3/02; 10:04:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 79800)
AND I thought that everyone realized that the "DARK CONTEST" was over ! That post about the present reality in The Emerald City is FRIGHTENING to say the least. Are there ANY rays of hope that you can throw out to appease the Hobbits a little ? Are TRUCK SALES at least holding steady?
Thanks
<;-)
YGM
(7/3/02; 10:22:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 79802)
Jimbo (7/3/02; 07:54:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 79796)
Classy Post.....
Hope I didn't come off sounding like a know it all w/ my reply to you re: Info sites etc....If so my apolog's.... While you're learning more here you've done a little teaching in the 'Class' dept....IMHO....YGM
barnaclebob
(7/3/02; 10:14:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 79801)
Why July 4 is significant to Islamists
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=28159
Snips:
Bin Laden is trying to raise the entire Muslim world to Jihad. Creating the mystique of the Chosen is central to his goal, and symbolism is the greatest weapon in his arsenal (thus far). Consider what he said (twice) in his post-Sept. 11 video: "… after 80 years, the sword has come to America …" He was clearly referring to the resolution passed by the U.S. Congress endorsing the partition of Palestine (creation of a Zionist homeland) on Sept. 11, 1922.
We, in our narcissism, assume that July 4 is all about us. But to Muslims it is a day of ultimate triumph.
On July 4, 1197, Saladin (Salah al-Din) completely annihilated the 20,000-man Crusader army at the battle of the Horns of Hattin, driving the "Christians" from the Holy Land until the 20th century. And we can be sure it is not lost on bin Laden that Saladin won this battle in spite of the fact that the Crusaders carried with them the "True Cross" (the True Cross was a relic designated by Constantine's mother during the initial phase of the paganization of Christianity).
The first question is, do they? Recently, al-Qaida spokesman Abu Ghaith promised to kill 4,000,000 of us, referring to America as "Hubal." Hubal was the last and the largest of the 364 pagan gods in the Kaaba to be toppled by Muhammad (al-ilah, the predecessor to Allah, was left standing). The image of Hubal was so large that Ali (Muhammad's son and the first Imam) had to stand on the Prophet's shoulders to push it over.
Got Gold?
Pizz
(7/3/02; 10:04:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 79800)
Hoople
Didn't have time before I left the house to post any reasons for my nearterm hyperinflationary predicitions, but here's what's happening out here in "trenches" land.
Insurance companies are on the ropes big time. Their investment income is going negative, they've survived on bond capital gains over the past couple years, but that dried up lately. Their stock portfolios are negative, their annuity business has been based upon the same "pie in the sky" projections as GM's (and others)pension plans have been, and claims are starting to go thru the roof. I've submitted more claims for theft and fraud in the past 6 months than I have for the previous 5 years. We're in renewal right now, and I'm forcasting we'll get half the coverage for twice the price. Business is going to have to self insure more, or go broke faster paying huge premiums.
Yesterday a national check guarantee company increased their minimum billing amounts five to ten fold (depending on the account). They usually work on a very small percentage of total value of checks called in. What does that tell you about the recovery?
If anyone out there thinks this government is going to sit back and let the "debt berg" implode the banks, insurance companies, and half of corporate America (yes, half because that's about my estimate of just how bad the inflated balance sheets are) they are just not being realistic.
The sad thing is that to remain in power, and to save face, the PTB need a trigger device, and so far the terrorists haven't been cooperative. I don't expect that to last for long, one way or the other. Desperate people do desperate things, and governments are not exempt.
My contrarian vision of the markets do not see a summer rally, cause most are expecting one, since we are deeply oversold. But we can get more oversold. I'm more prone to think of a fall rally after more selling (possibly a spike down due to an extranious "event") and then up, and up big as we inflate our way to a false prosperity and attempt to war our way out of this mess.
Not investment advice, just one man's opinion, subject to change as events unfold.
Pizz
The Hoople
(7/3/02; 09:10:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 79799)
Pizz
I figure the U.S. government is like Worldcom X 1,000. Worldcom has 30 billion of debt and maybe 3-5 billion of assets and is losing money hand over fist. Our government has 30(?) trillion of unfunded liabilities and a fraction of that as assets and is losing money hand over fist. The difference is the Fed can print confetti thereby transferring obligation to all of us. There will be 2 bailouts; 1 directly to industry sectors and the quiet kind where fiat gets debased 90%. Some "event" will have to explain this happening, it will never be a banksters fault.
Pizz
(7/3/02; 08:36:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 79798)
Musings
What will it take to get out of this mess?
The dollar's last (hyperinflationary) run. Corporate balance sheets are bloated and beyond repair, and deflation is not an option.
Wonder why European markets are fairing worse lately than Japan or US? It's the Euro and the cap on budget deficits.
Expect terrorists attack(s) in US soon. When the derivitives (PM's and financial) markets explode the banks and when the US economy really heads towards the bottom, expect reserve requirements at the banks to be suspended and massive government bailouts for the banks and major corprations.
It's what I think the markets are discounting.
Watch.
Pizz
Carl H
(7/3/02; 08:13:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 79797)
PPT at work
Yahoo headlines:
Advance Micro Cuts Sales Forecast Again
American Airlines Sees Job Cuts Over Time
Jobless Claims Lowest Since March 2001
Vivendi Clobbered, Seeks to Avert Crisis
Compuware Warns of Weaker Profit, Sales
Knight Trading Sees Losses, Cuts Staff
WorldCom CEO Says in Talks for Financing Options
HP, Compaq Europe Job Cuts Total 5,900
and of course, the DJIA opens up. For those from the US, isn't it nice to see our tax dollars being used for such noble purposes as manipulating financial markets to make things look "good" right before we take a holiday to celebrate the freedoms and liberties that we supposedly have.
Jimbo
(7/3/02; 07:54:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 79796)
@Psyops re. hapless "newbie"
I can assure you that I'm not a cabal shill posing as a hapless "newbie." Rather, I'm a middle-aged, self-employed gold stock investor who admittedly has been brainwashed for years, as you put it, "by the nice people on TV." I pose my continual questions not to sew seeds of doubt, but to better understand the forces in the domestic and world economy that determine the price of gold. Without a doubt, there are many investors like me who daily visit this forum to learn from you and others who have years of experience in gold. I urge you to be objective and realize that physical gold has not been perceived to be a viable investment by the general public for many, many years. Most investors have been brainwashed into believing gold is "too risky." Hell, you can't even buy physical and put it into your IRA. I urge you to be patient and forbearing with the "Jimbos" of the world who visit this forum to ask seemingly naive questions. In time, as they build confidence and knowledge, they, too, will buy physical. But they won't migrate from paper to physical if their questions are treated with intolerance. The cabal uses fear and mis-information to intimidate gold "newbies" such as myself and others. The well-informed posters on this forum need to continue to use sincerity and knowledge to undo the cabal's work. Many thanks to you, Psyops, and all the others who have helped me learn and progress.
sector
(7/3/02; 07:46:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 79795)
Fed's McDonough on "Inflation Fighting"
Since June 1985 M3 has risen from $3.2 Trillion to $8Trillion [150%]
In my view, price stability is therefore critical not only for the classic economic reasons but also because it takes on a greater social importance as well. The benefits to society of achieving price stability are all too often overlooked, which has allowed some unfortunate myths to flourish. One myth is that inflation is actually good for growth. This simply is not true. History teaches us that a necessary condition for winning the confidence of savers and investors is an environment in which prices remain reasonably stable, that is, pricesdo not vary significantly over time. The ability to develop this environment requires the assurance that economic policymakers will be robust and consistent fighters against inflation.
Another myth says that inflation creates jobs, which is assumed to benefit the poor. This, too, is false. Inflation actually hurts the poor more than the wealthy. Those with less wealth have fewer financial alternatives and are likely to live on fixed incomes. This means that in an environment of rising prices, the purchasing power of their income is reduced and their standard of living may severely decline. Moreover, those who are lower on the economic ladder are often the last to be hired during economic good times and the first to lose their jobs during slowdowns that result from the need to reduce inflation.
Thus, it is in everybody's interest to keep prices stable and to maximize the job creation that accompanies growth. It not only is good economics, it also is good social policy. For better or worse, the task of keeping to this appropriate policy path often falls to the central bank. This is because the goals and long-term objectives of monetary policy can be more immune to political concerns, particularly near-term election considerations. That is why so many studies show that countries whose central banks have a high degree of independence from day-to-day political interference have had a far better record in terms of lower inflation and stronger growth.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The rank hypocricy of this "Officer" can be seen in the actual numbers of inflation since 1985. If one chooses to measure from 1970 the loss in the dollar's purchasing power is 10X.
Absolute power corrupts absolutely...Mr. McDonough is a classic example....First Acolyte to the Master of the Universe.
"...monetary policy can be more immune to political concerns, particularly election considerations."
What Mr. McDonough really means here is that HE is immune from and resides above the election process.
Mr Gresham
(7/3/02; 07:16:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 79794)
SteveH -- Thanks
Thanks for posting McDonough's speech (I can't wait for the Polish translation!), but you must have been holding your stomach throughout reading it. As nauseating as it is, it's interesting to see the system's view of itself. Sort of. Well -- not really.
"The responsibilities of government versus the rights of individuals, the centralization of power in the federal government versus its dispersal to the states, the mistrust of government versus faith in individuals are notions that are as alive in the Federal Reserve System today as they were when our republic was being shaped more than two centuries ago."
They are what they are, doing what they set themselves up to do, or whatever they've evolved into while continually tapping into people's labor, savings, and productive efforts
McFiat. Over 50 Trillion Served. Still Indigestible. Yecch.
miner49er
(7/3/02; 06:51:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 79793)
Congratulations to all the contest winners!
Aureo - well done! Nice Orwellian read... btw, what was the exchange rate to convert Oldbux for Newbux...?
Esteemed Castle Review Panel - thank you for considering my offering. Being among the honored silver recipients is good company to be associated with, indeed...
miner
misetich
(7/3/02; 06:20:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 79792)
South America - Contagion - Argentina, Brazil, Peru, Uraguay, Chile, Ecuador, Venezuela
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html#anchor0
Snip:
In the past three months, as Latin currencies have suffered from turbulence in Brazil and dollar weakness, Chile's peso has lost nearly 10% of its value. Despite an improvement in the last two days of June, the pace of the peso's decline since April has been startling, as has the deterioration in the prices of Chilean assets in other markets. Although we remain cautious on our outlook for the Chilean economy, we see few "home-grown" reasons to justify the peso's recent weakness.
Indeed, Chile's recent saga serves as a warning sign to the region's watchers. Even in countries without the political difficulties seen in Argentina or Venezuela, the election uncertainty of Brazil, or the unrest seen in Peru, Chile's return to growth in 2002 remains complicated by the feedback from financial market turbulence in the region. And given the indiscriminate nature of the contagion, there is little guarantee that Chile's peso will not once again come under pressure in the weeks ahead. Although we reaffirm our end-year peso/US dollar forecast of 660, we would not be surprised to see the peso trade above 700 in the coming months and even retest levels near 720 seen late last year.
.............
The Chilean Peso/Brazilian Real Link
Despite the absence of the fiscal difficulties seen in Brazil and Argentina, and the political difficulties that have engulfed much of the region, Chile has been unable to escape contagion from Brazil. The clearest sign has been the link between real weakness and weakness in the Chilean peso. Although the trade linkages between Chile and the rest of Latin America (which would likely suffer first from greater turmoil in Brazil) may explain some of the weakness, we question whether Chile would suffer from a longer downturn in Brazil. Instead, we expect that a rebound in the US and global markets could compensate for any downturn in Chilean exports to the region and help the currency break its current Brazil link.
Misetich
The article writer is counting on a US economic recovery - they've been counting it on it for the past 18 months and still waiting -
Got gold?
misetich
(7/3/02; 06:00:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 79791)
US $ - Bottom Line: Living on the Edge
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html#anchor0
Snip:
In the aggregate, portfolio inflows slowed to $38 billion in April, down from the sharp spike in March ($66.5 billion). Our theme of bifurcated US portfolio inflows was all too present in the April figures. For the month, diminished flows from Euroland were offset by surging flows from Asia, mostly from Japan. Inflows from Asia Ex-Japan were quite small relative to the past few months. The United Kingdom was a substantial source of capital in April, although the monthly total was less than half the level of the prior month.
Disillusionment in Europe
There is little doubt that the appetite among Euroland investors for US securities has abated. Indeed, inflows to the US from Euroland in the first four months of 2002 totaled just $7.5 billion compared with $25 billion for the same period a year ago. In April, net inflows totaled just $1.6 billion, among the weakest months of the past year. By asset class, Euroland investors were net sellers of Treasuries and nominal buyers of corporate bonds, agencies, and equities. Net equity purchases of $1.8 billion were at among the weakest levels (excluding September 2001) in more than two years.
Reflecting the growing disillusionment of European investors toward US securities, Euroland investors accounted for less than 6% of US inflows in the first four months of this year after accounting for nearly one-quarter of US inflows just a few years ago. Given the rise of the euro in the second quarter, we strongly suspect that Euroland investors continued to pare their US holdings in May and June. In fact, while the Enron debacle helped diminish confidence in US securities earlier this year, we can only assume that subsequent meltdowns at Tyco, WorldCom, and Xerox may have further soured investors on US assets.
Asian Dependence
As we have highlighted in prior dispatches, no country in Asia wants its currency to rally too quickly or too strongly against the dollar, on account of their underlying dependence on the US market for export growth. Asia's dependence has prompted central banks in Japan, Australia, South Korea, and other countries to buy dollar-denominated assets in an effort to stanch the dollar's decline.
Japan was the largest provider of portfolio capital to the US in April. Typically, Japanese investment in US securities slows at the end of its fiscal year (March) as investors sell foreign securities to build up their balance sheets at home. However, the beginning of the new fiscal year generally coincides with a return to foreign markets. In April, Japanese residents poured $13 billion into US securities, reversing the sell-off seen during the prior three months. This was a larger-than-usual surge compared with prior years, but much more is needed to offset the pullback in other regions.
Bottom Line: Living on the Edge
The trajectory of US portfolio inflows over the past few years has been nothing short of astonishing. Recall that over the 1999-2000 period, the external financing needs of the US were supported by strong inflows of both FDI (thanks to surging M&A inflows) and portfolio flows. This double-barreled financing was more than enough to cover the US current-account deficit and helped to boost US capital investment, consumer spending, and the value of US financial assets. In 2001, the bust in global M&A activity forced portfolio flows to do the heavy lifting of financing the US current-account deficit. In general, inflows were relatively balanced and emanated fairly uniformly from all regions. Thus far in 2002, portfolio inflows have continued to dominate overall capital flows, although flows from Euroland have narrowed, leaving Asia as the lender of last resort to the US. Against this backdrop, as long as Asia is willing to send capital to America, the US should avoid a capital shortage and potential dollar crash.
Misetich
Got gold?
Black Blade
(7/3/02; 05:52:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 79790)
Europe Awash In Red
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Europe looks ugly this morning on diminished confidence and earnings warnings. No economic recovery for Europe either.
- Black Blade
LeSin
(7/3/02; 05:46:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 79789)
How Important are Comex, Tocom ? Russia Goes Around Them & Direct
http://www.neftegaz.ru/english/lenta/show.php?id=25128
Snip from near the end of the above article:
"The dynamically developing Southeast Asian market looks very promising to us," he said, adding that the company wanted to sell up to 25 percent of all metals it produced there.
"But in case of palladium, our main targets are U.S. car-making and electronic companies," Finsky said. "It is a large market, and we are interested in long-term ties with end-users on the American continent."
Finsky said that currently Norilsk saw no reason to sell palladium, used essentially in catalytic exhaust converters in the car industry, on the spot market it had abandoned in the second half of 2001 due to weak prices.
"We are not planning sales on the the spot (palladium) market ... which is practically nonexistent," Finsky said.
But Norilsk intended to continue spot sales of sister metal platinum, whose market is more liquid, he said.
Black Blade
(7/3/02; 05:44:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 79788)
Swaps And Options: The Next Investor Time Bombs?
http://www.forbes.com/2002/07/02/0702watch.html?partner=yahoo&referrer=
Snippit:
NEW YORK - Given the headlines of the past few months, most investors now regard corporate accounting as an exercise in creative writing, and ethics as joke. Unfortunately, the bad news might not be over. While swapping lowers borrowing costs today, Hesler fears that if the Fed begins to raise short-term rates, it will dramatically increase financing costs for these companies, perhaps causing some to default, which could send waves through credit markets and the economy. To be certain, says Hesler, it would significantly reduce earnings. "This means that short-term interest rates are much more important to the U.S. corporate bottom line than they were ten years ago," says Hesler. Hesler warns that these swaps are generally not disclosed to investors but could affect a large number of companies, especially banks.
Charles Allmon, editor of Growth Stock Outlook, has been pounding the table about the way companies account for stock option grants to employees. Allmon estimates that if companies treated options as expenses, than earnings on the S&P 500 would be 30% less than they are today. "It's crooked, and nobody wants to do anything about it," says Allmon. "Nobody's showing any leadership. It's taking this whole trust thing down the tubes." "Anytime you have options tied to stock prices, you're in trouble. You should link them to something like real profits," says Allmon, who adds that "if something isn't done to clean up this mess, George Bush is going to be a one-termer." Hesler does Allmon one better: "If the economy remains in recession when the next presidential election comes around, we may find that Hillary Clinton is on the slate with a better than even chance of becoming the first female U.S. president."
Black Blade: This is scary because I have said similar things (except about Hillary). Of course it was a Clinton that ran against a Bush with the slogan "It's the economy stupid". Actually I have said that George W. Bush would likely be the Herbert Hoover of our generation. It's going to get very ugly going forward.
BTW, market index futures are looking very ugly this morning.
Black Blade
(7/3/02; 05:26:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 79787)
British Government Loses 480 Million Euros on Ill-Timed Gold Sale
http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=31015091&ID=cnniw&scategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&
Snippit:
Jun. 30--The British government has admitted that it lost UKpound 300 million (E480 million) by the bad timing of its decision to sell off a chunk of Britain's gold reserves.
The Bank of England, under government instructions, sold 395 tonnes of gold as part of a restructuring of the United Kingdom's foreign currency reserves, announced in May 1999. The Bank used the money it raised to invest in a portfolio split between 40 percent in euros, 40 percent in dollars and 20 percent in yen. Gold has recently made a strong recovery on the world markets and the UK gold reserves were sold at the bottom of the market.
Black Blade: With the current Currency Wars underway we should see the toll rise as the double whammy of depreciating currencies and rising Gold hits home. A real "smooth move" by Captain Tony and First Mate Eddie George (aka "Little Buddy"). I have always found it "interesting" that politicians once elected become "experts" in everything overnight by virtue of winning the bi popularity contest. Well these "experts" just cost the British people a nice chunk of change.
Black Blade
(7/3/02; 04:10:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 79786)
Corporate lies have broader implications
http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/ArticleNews/story/RTGAM/20020627/wmath27
Snippit:
It's an issue that affects more than just investors in one specific company, however. WorldCom shareholders may be the latest winners (or losers) of the 'Who's A Bigger Fraud' contest that seems to be under way in the United States at the moment, but the impact of such scandals is much broader than just one company or its shareholders. In a very real way, it affects not just the stock market, but the health of the economy itself.
WorldCom is a particularly good (or bad) example, because the fraud that it has been accused of perpetrating involved overstating its capital expenditures by a staggering $4-billion (U.S.) in a little over a year. The company apparently took money spent on routine maintenance of its network — such as upgrading of switches or paying other companies a fee for the use of their networks — and treated it as a long-term investment.
Black Blade: Turn on the lights and watch the cockroaches scatter. I have posted here in the past about phoney baloney accounting including booking such items as mentioned in the article. It is much worse than that. It involves the corrupt practice of pro forma earnings, operating earnings, synthetic leases, etc. Investors are slowing waking up to the chicanery on Wall Street and now realizes that they have been played for fools at the boiler rooms at Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Solomon Smith Barney, etc. We are coming to the end game. Load up on Gold and Silver portfolio insurance while it's still cheap. It's going to get mighty ugly.
Black Blade
(7/3/02; 03:39:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 79785)
How many Enrons are there? More than people may think.
http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/0703/p03s02-usec.html
One-quarter of public firms have to amend reports after SEC review – a sign of widespread manipulation.
Snippit:
NEW YORK – It's one of the central questions behind the growing scandal in corporate America: Just how pervasive is the number fudging? Some believe the mistakes in financial reporting and accounting are limited to a handful of companies – an Enron here and a WorldCom there. Others see the balance-sheet manipulation as extensive. Now a new study finds that financial shenanigans may, in fact, be more widespread than many Americans are aware of.
Black Blade: Like I said about cockroaches, where there are several, it's a sure bet that there's an infestation. We should be hearing of earnings warnings over the next week before the bad news is officially released. Don't worry as companies are sure to meet or beat "substantially lowered" analysts consensus earnings estimates. Hmmm…
Black Blade
(7/3/02; 03:32:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 79784)
Absolute Wealth Corrupts Absolutely
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,269373,00.html
The boom of the 1920s spawned corporate misdoings that were ultimately unveiled when the economy fell to pieces. Sound familiar?
Snippit:
The country is now waking to the unpleasant reality that boom-era excesses and corporate malfeasance go hand in hand. When the wealth of the million richest U.S. families, the top one percent, expands too much over a decade or two of booming stock prices, the eventual result seems to be a taste for speculation and highly developed sense of "gimme" that winds up jeopardizing both the American economy and the vitality of the American democracy. Especially in corporations, this ethical erosion over the last 4-5 years is now coming home to roost.
Economic history has seen other such surges, and the classic U.S. example involves the perverse proportionality of how the binge of the 1920s was followed by a three-year wringing-out after the 1929 Crash. Thus it's highly relevant — and a little scary — that experts are beginning to compare current circumstances with the precedents of that era.
Black Blade: There are more comparisons to the 1929 market crash and the Great Depression than one can shake a ticker tape at. The recent accounting scandals and corporate malfeasance is just the tip of the iceberg. Where there's one cockroach there are probably more, and where there a several cockroaches then it's a sure bet that there's an infestation.
Black Blade
(7/3/02; 03:21:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 79783)
Brazil's real chalks up new record low
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_2084000/2084550.stm
Traders fear victory of left-wing candidate
Snippit:
Brazil's currency has hit new record lows as the financial markets panic over the possible victory of a left-wing candidate in October's presidential elections. The real, introduced in 1994, fell to 2.94 against the US dollar from Monday's record low close of 2.89, leaving the currency 21% below where it began 2002.
Black Blade: The smart ones have Gold and Silver portfolio insurance. The stupid ones will end up eating at the landfill and take care of the stray cat and dog problem.
Black Blade
(7/3/02; 03:15:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 79782)
U.S. Stocks Fall, Driving S&P 500 to Lowest Since January 1998
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk,&s2=ad_right1_topfin&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APSIHYBOfVS5TLiBT
Snippit:
New York, July 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks slumped, dragging the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to the lowest level in 4 1/2 years, led by semiconductor and pharmaceutical companies.
Black Blade: And the S&P 500 is still grossly overvalued. Also, just out is that Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is crashing in Europe. Looks like something is happening with the stock. Looks like a very negative open on Wall Street if the sudden reversal in Market Index Futures are any indication. And Gold turned slightly positive.
YGM
(7/3/02; 02:58:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 79781)
KTC...
Well Hang in... The Gold & Silver Play is our Last Hope.....IMHO
I got out of all stock plays in 95/96 during Bre-X fall...Lost about half but made good overall. Gotta get some Zzzzz's here, been writing up a Resume` tonite pertaining to Mining sector....Can't seem to get to an ending...Nowadays they're probably more inclined to hire me if I BS than if I tell the truth...Nah, he couldn't have done all that stuff...Oh well, we try....G'Nite....YGM.
KTC
(7/3/02; 02:41:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 79780)
YGM -- Xerox
I remember (may not be exact) Xerox now still has about 23B in debt, current market cap of Xerox is about 3B--4B. If you use the high of $60, it losed $30B during the bull market so the impact for overall market is smaller. Worldcom is still bigger, Xerox just is an older and more familiar name.
But I agree with you, any accounting probelm and big company goes belly up is not good to the Market phyche right now. But this is a good thing needed to wash out the excess of bull market. Besides, when market went down, then gold usually went up.
I own a thouand Xerox shares purchasing at 8, if it goes to zero, the lost is about 1/10th of the amount of money I lost in gold miming shares between 1993--2000. Many of my mining shares went to zero. But I kept maintaining a certain amount in mining shares (dumped all the hedgers and switched to non-hedgers in 2000) and finally make some back this year (but still not broke even yet). Reading at this forum help me stick in there.
YGM
(7/3/02; 02:01:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 79779)
KTC....
I'm Not So Sure re Xerox & WorldCom.....
But I'm far from an expert and the facts and figures are not nearly all tallied yet....Part of my supposition comes from earlier comments by Marketalk here...MarkeTalk (7/2/02; 14:32:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 79725)
and part from the comments by a 30 yr employee at a Xerox Stock Forum..(her 1000 shs average $54.00) (My Post # 79760) and many other comments of late on the final tally of Debt carried by Xerox as yet unknown.
Now you used the figures of $53 high for WorldCom in /99 and $24 High for Xerox in /00...but Xerox had a high of about $60++ in /99. I have no info re Xerox Bonds or Debt load but even if it is not a bigger scandal/financial loss than Wcom it will rock the already crumbling foundation of Wall St and put even more fear into Worldwide investors of US Dow and Nasdaq stocks...Each blue chip dominoe to fall will bring the US Stock Markets closer to the abyss and each one may be the one to send it over the edge NO?...Like I say you and most other market players probably have a better handle on all this than I, but I see trouble brewing and it won't end with the few dominoes we've seen fall...There's undoubtably much more to come......Thanks for your interest and discussion, I am learning as I go...YGM
Black Blade
(7/3/02; 01:56:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 79778)
Asian and European Markets Rally
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Foreign markets are rallying on the stronger US dollar. The threat to exporters in foreign nations has subsided for now. It appears that equities trading on Wall Street could be "entertaining" today just before the 4 day weekend. To hold or not to hold. Hmmm...
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(7/3/02; 01:50:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 79777)
USD Rallies - Gold Lower
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
It looks like the US dollar has strengthened against all other major currencies. The Japanese appear to have won the "Currency War" of the weaker currency. Now European countries want in on the fun and they too are falling sharply against the US dollar. US exporters are the big losers. However, the trade deficit will likely balloon unless the trend is reversed. This will play positively on the POG as well. Meanwhile the POG is slightly lower, petroleum is higher, and the US market indices are higher. All of which can change at the drop of a hat. We are just a "scandal" or "arrest" away from another market reversal.
- Black Blade
SteveH
(7/3/02; 01:40:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 79776)
Power of the Purse Delegated to Fed
http://www.ny.frb.org/pihome/news/speeches/2002/mcd020702.html
Remarks by
William J. McDonough
President and Chief Executive Officer
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
THE IMPORTANCE OF CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE
IN ACHIEVING PRICE STABILITY
before the
National Bank of Poland
Warsaw, Poland
July 2, 2002
I am honored this afternoon to visit the National Bank of Poland and to address this distinguished group of central bankers and their guests. One timely issue confronting policymakers throughout the world is the proper scope for central bank independence. As is widely accepted, central banks that are both powerful and autonomous, yet at the same time responsive to the needs and wishes of their people, are fundamental not only to the economic development of all countries, but also to their political and economic stability.
Integral to economic development as well as to political and economic stability is a commitment to the liberty, dignity, and independence of people. These are ideals most countries share today. But liberty and independence, while precious, assume different form as they take root in countries throughout the world. How much liberty and independence do we give to people? How much is responsibility for governing people to be centralized? How much is sovereignty to be divided? In the United States, these are questions we continue to air and debate in public.
Today, I would like to share with you some of my views as to how these issues are reflected in the development of the Federal Reserve System and why I believe central bank independence is so vital to a country's economic development and its ability to control inflation. Independence has, perhaps, a special meaning in the context of the United States' experience with central banking. We as a nation were born primarily of individuals who set an independent course for themselves by leaving their own countries to seek a better life in the New World. Our country owes its growth, its prosperity, and its prominence to these individuals. How to preserve the individual liberty they sought and won has become an enduring theme in the history of the United States.
This history reflects the dynamic tension set forth in our Constitution of checks and balances to ensure that the powers of government do not alienate the rights of people. The responsibilities of government versus the rights of individuals, the centralization of power in the federal government versus its dispersal to the states, the mistrust of government versus faith in individuals are notions that are as alive in the Federal Reserve System today as they were when our republic was being shaped more than two centuries ago.
Compared with a number of other countries' experience with central banking, which goes back centuries, the Federal Reserve, at almost 90-years old, is a relative youth. Not widely known is that there were two earlier central banks in the United States prior to the creation of the Federal Reserve System in 1913. The first was chartered in 1791, the second in 1816. Each bank remained in operation for twenty years. It was not until repeated financial crises, however, with their associated business bankruptcies and general economic contractions, notably the panic of 1907, that the need for a central banking system found support in Congress.
The Federal Reserve Act was passed by Congress in 1913 with the goals of providing for a safer and more flexible banking and monetary system. One of its original purposes was to provide the country with an elastic currency--that is, one that would expand as appropriate to accommodate the need for additional transactions as production and spending grew. The Federal Reserve Act was also intended to establish facilities for discounting commercial credits and to improve the supervision of the banking system. More broadly, in establishing the Federal Reserve System, Congress sought to create an institution that would combine the benefits of public and private outlooks while insulating its functions from day-to-day political pressures.
The central banking system Congress put in place reflects the country's historic concerns, traceable to its early experiments with central banking, about a centralized government monopoly of the creation of money and the desire to disperse that control through a system incorporating regional diversity and private sector involvement. The Federal Reserve today is thus a regionally dispersed institution with both government and private interests represented in its ownership and control, a testament to the longstanding belief that formal involvement by the private sector is essential to the credibility and management of the nation's central bank.
Initially, the government was represented on the seven-member Board of Governors by the Secretary of the Treasury and the Comptroller of the Currency. In 1935, Congress removed these two officials from the Board in an effort to strengthen the Federal Reserve's independence from political pressures within the government. The seven governors who now comprise the Board are appointed by the President with the approval of the Senate. Each must come from a different geographic region, or district. Originally, Board members were appointed for ten-year terms so as to insulate them from short-term political pressures; the terms were increased to fourteen years in 1935.
To balance central oversight in Washington with regional and private sector input, Congress created twelve Federal Reserve district banks, each serving a geographic region. The creation of the district banks as separate corporate entities with local boards of directors and member banks as stockholders was a key aspect of the Federal Reserve Act.
The Reserve Bank directors, then as now, are one of the primary means by which the Federal Reserve Banks interact with the private sector on an ongoing basis. Six of the nine directors of each district bank are elected by the member banks; three are appointed by the Board of Governors. Of the nine directors, three represent banks and six represent the public, with particular consideration to the interests of agriculture, commerce, industry, services, labor, and consumers. The Reserve Bank presidents are appointed by the directors, subject to approval by the Board of Governors.
In the early decades of the Federal Reserve, responsibility for formulating and implementing monetary policy was not centralized in the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, as it is today. Instead, the twelve district banks undertook open market operations and set the discount rate for banks in their areas, which required the Board's approval. In 1922, the district banks created their own committee to coordinate their open market activities. Since 1935, the FOMC has existed in its current form.
The debate surrounding the creation of the FOMC pitted some members of Congress who wanted only the Presidentially-appointed governors in Washington to set monetary policy against others who wanted the regional Reserve Banks to continue control of the Committee. The compromise reached allows all seven governors and the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York a permanent vote on the Committee but only four of the remaining eleven district bank presidents a vote at any time. This compromise reflects that delicate tension of checks and balances on centralized authority, which lies at the core of the Federal Reserve System today.
This brings me to consider the basic functions and goals of central banks in democratic countries. We all recognize that the ways central banks choose to carry out their functions and the importance they attach to specific instruments or tools to achieve their goals vary across countries. The degree of independence central banks have within their governments also varies across countries. These differences are to be expected. They reflect each country's individual history, traditions, financial market structures, and legal frameworks.
Nonetheless, I do believe that central banks in democracies the world over share certain basic functions and goals in common. What are these? First and foremost, a central bank's most time-honored duty is to formulate and implement monetary policy--with its twin goals of promoting domestic price stability while stimulating real growth. These goals remain at the core of central bank policy.
Integral to achieving price stability is the need for central banks to avoid the direct financing of government budget deficits. Central banks can't indulge in this practice and simultaneously hold inflation in check, over the long run. At the same time, central banks must strive to maintain positive real interest rates, which tend to increase private savings and discourage investments with low expected returns, thereby promoting growth in the economy.
Central banks implement monetary policy by affecting the growth of money and credit in the economy in response to deflationary or inflationary pressures as they arise. Central banks alter monetary policy through the use of a set of instruments, or tools. In the United States, these tools are grouped into three broad categories: 1) setting reserve requirements for banks, 2) setting the lending rate and making loans to commercial banks, and 3) buying and selling government securities or other government-guaranteed instruments. As lenders of last resort, central banks also stand ready to use the available policy instruments to forestall national liquidity crises and financial panics.
Another major responsibility of many central banks is to oversee, or have some participation in the oversight of, their banking and financial systems. A sound banking and financial structure is essential for an effective monetary policy. Confidence in the soundness of the banking and financial system is what mobilizes a society's savings, allows the savings to be channeled into productive investments, and encourages economic growth.
In the United States, the regulatory role of the Federal Reserve strengthens its ability to act as ultimate providers of liquidity to the financial system. Moreover, because monetary policy involves judgments about conditions in financial markets and financial institutions, including a detailed working knowledge of those markets and institutions, a major ingredient in the decision-making process comes from the direct, hands-on knowledge central banks gain through interaction with institutions under their supervision. I am firmly convinced that the Federal Reserve's hands-on involvement in bank supervision is integral to its ability to meet its monetary policy responsibilities and contain or forestall crises, if they emerge.
The third major function of central banks is to oversee the payments mechanism. A payments mechanism which is dependable and allows the efficient clearing and settlement of interbank transactions is crucial to a well-functioning financial system. Commercial banks participate directly in a country's payments system, extending short-term credit in their role as financial intermediaries in the payment, transfer, and settlement of financial instruments, including interbank deposits and government securities. Central banks participate directly in the payments system as well, in part because numerous types of payments, including large-value interbank transfers and check clearing settlements, are likely to occur across their books.
The central bank's participation in the payments system and its role as supervisor of the system enhance its ability to foresee and prevent or moderate financial disruptions. The payments system is a source of major credit risk because of the lags in time during which the processing of transactions takes place. During these intervals, one party extends credit to another pending the receipt of funds. These lags between the payments associated with both sides of a financial obligation, which can vary from hours to days, result in large, interwoven extensions of credit among financial institutions.
A payments gridlock or other financial disruption can arise from numerous sources, including the sudden failure of a major participant, credit concerns by some participants which make them reluctant to release payments, and various technical interruptions. Because a gridlock can spread rapidly throughout the financial system, central banks have a keen interest in avoiding a payments system disruption and ensuring that participants in the system manage their credit risks properly. In carrying out the functions of a central bank, we must ask ourselves why it is desirable that central banks in democracies have an important degree of political independence within government. I think we would all agree that central banks neither can nor should be fully independent of government, since it is governments--and not central banks--that hold final responsibility for the economic and financial policy of the country.
Nevertheless, some degree of central bank independence is critical. Why is this so?Basically, the greater the independence the central bank has, the less subject it is likely to be to short-term political pressures. Central banks under the direct day-to-day control of governments seem inevitably to be tempted to promote easy credit policies, particularly when elections are in view, or, even worse, to finance government budget deficits directly. While these policies may relieve certain short-term problems, such as high unemployment or difficulties in financing fiscal deficits, they ultimately result in higher inflation and the need for severe credit tightening in the future. Independence is also helpful to central banks in carrying out their supervisory responsibilities, by enabling them to resist pressures to relax or strengthen regulatory standards depending on political winds.
A number of studies in recent years have found some empirical basis for the desirability of central bank independence as well. Although these studies cannot prove causality, they do find that the greater the independence of the central bank, the lower the average level of inflation the country experiences and the less volatile the inflation rate.
Moreover, the fact that a country's central bank is independent is likely to enhance the credibility of that bank's commitment to price stability. This enhanced credibility, as one of my former colleagues on the Board of Governors has argued, may provide additional benefits. For example, this enhanced credibility may enable the central bank to reduce the cost of lowering inflation. Economists generally agree that if inflation is to be lower, monetary policy must reduce output for a while, relative to potential, by reducing aggregate demand. The output that is lost during the transition to lower inflation is a measure of the cost of reducing inflation. The faster expectations of inflation fall, the faster inflation itself will decline. The result will be lower costs to reducing inflation.
The credibility of a central bank's commitment to price stability is also important because a credible central bank may be more effective in conducting stabilization policy. A stimulative monetary policy in response to a slowdown in aggregate demand would be less likely to undermine a central bank's commitment to price stability when the central bank is independent. In addition, inflation expectations could be less likely to follow immediately were inflation to rise when a central bank is independent, easing the ability of the central bank to contain inflation.
In my view, controlling inflation is particularly important. When countries incur a significant level of public sector debt and run large budget deficits, fiscal policy is no longer available as a tool of macroeconomic policy. If fiscal policy is unavailable to address some of the social needs that confront so many economies throughout the world, it becomes especially important for inflation to remain under control, largely because of its regressive tax aspects.
In my view, price stability is therefore critical not only for the classic economic reasons but also because it takes on a greater social importance as well. The benefits to society of achieving price stability are all too often overlooked, which has allowed some unfortunate myths to flourish. One myth is that inflation is actually good for growth. This simply is not true. History teaches us that a necessary condition for winning the confidence of savers and investors is an environment in which prices remain reasonably stable, that is, prices
do not vary significantly over time. The ability to develop this environment requires the assurance that economic policymakers will be robust and consistent fighters against inflation.
Another myth says that inflation creates jobs, which is assumed to benefit the poor. This, too, is false. Inflation actually hurts the poor more than the wealthy. Those with less wealth have fewer financial alternatives and are likely to live on fixed incomes. This means that in an environment of rising prices, the purchasing power of their income is reduced and their standard of living may severely decline. Moreover, those who are lower on the economic ladder are often the last to be hired during economic good times and the first to lose their jobs during slowdowns that result from the need to reduce inflation.
Thus, it is in everybody's interest to keep prices stable and to maximize the job creation that accompanies growth. It not only is good economics, it also is good social policy. For better or worse, the task of keeping to this appropriate policy path often falls to the central bank. This is because the goals and long-term objectives of monetary policy can be more immune to political concerns, particularly near-term election considerations. That is why so many studies show that countries whose central banks have a high degree of independence from day-to-day political interference have had a far better record in terms of lower inflation and stronger growth.
But, we may reasonably ask, what exactly do we mean by central bank independence and how do we know it when we see it, recognizing, of course, that de jure measures of independence may not fully reflect de facto independence? Without being exhaustive, let me suggest a few answers and how they apply to the Federal Reserve System today.
One way to assess independence is to determine the extent to which the central bank enjoys freedom from the government in formulating and implementing its policies, particularly monetary policy. A key component of this measure of independence is the degree of freedom the central bank has to change official interest rates and select the mix of policy instruments and techniques it uses in undertaking open market operations. In these respects, I believe that Congress has provided the Federal Reserve with considerable scope for independently exercising its best judgment as to what monetary policy should be.
Another way to assess independence is to look at the procedures in place for central bank leaders to be nominated and dismissed. In the case of the Federal Reserve, staggered fourteen-year terms for governors clearly insulate the leadership from short-term political pressures and fears of falling out of grace politically. Moreover, once appointed, governors can be removed only for cause.
Still another way to measure independence has to do with the way the central bank finances itself. In the United States, the Federal Reserve System is self-financing, its earnings stemming principally from interest income on the portfolio of government securities it holds to conduct open market operations. Financing itself internally means that the Federal Reserve is not dependent on Congress for
annual appropriations and is therefore insulated from pressures that might otherwise flow from the "power of the purse."
Whatever their degree of independence, central banks typically are nonetheless created by and accountable to legislatures. In the United States, the Federal Reserve is accountable to Congress which has delegated to it specific powers Congress is granted by the Constitution. Congress thus retains the authority to oversee and instruct the Federal Reserve as it sees fit.
The Federal Reserve accounts to Congress in numerous formal and informal ways. There are continuous contacts between officials in the Federal Reserve and the government. Twice a year, the Federal Reserve reports to Congress on its monetary policy goals and its senior officials routinely appear before Congressional committees and sub-committees.
Over the years, Congress and the Administration have periodically sought to alter certain elements of the Federal Reserve. These efforts have contributed to many changes in the Federal Reserve's procedures and authority, in many cases allowing the Federal Reserve to evolve and keep pace with the needs of changing times. At no time, however, has the fundamental independence of the Federal Reserve been in jeopardy. The Federal Reserve's basic independence today is a widely shared value, which no one questions.
In reviewing the experience of central banking in the United States and the vital importance of an independent central bank, I cannot help but conclude that ultimately the only way central banks can achieve their goals and control inflation is if their integrity is without question and people have confidence in the policies they pursue. At the end of the day, it is public confidence that is a central bank's most precious commodity in a democracy.
Thank you.
Black Blade
(7/3/02; 01:19:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 79775)
North American Banks Under Growing Pressure From Gold Derivative Positions.
http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/2002/July-2002/derivatives030702.htm
Snippit:
This interplay between gold and paper currencies may be of academic interest to commentators, but is life and death to banks who have been making money in derivatives all the time gold has been in a bear market. Now the game has changed and a fascinating article has been published on a website called 321gold.com which claims that JP Morgan Chase & Co had notional amounts of derivative contracts outstanding which amounted to US$23.5 trillion as at the end of December 2001. To put this in context, the GDP of the United States is roughly US$10 trillion. And according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency JP Morgan had over US$41 billion of gold derivatives in this figure which represents around 65 per cent of all the gold derivatives held by US banks.
Small wonder then that the Royal Bank of Canada got its knickers in a twist recently when John Embry, a senior director who runs its Royal Precious Metals Fund, issued a report suggesting that central banks have, indeed, conspired to keep the price of gold low. RBC's position is nowhere near as big as JP Morgan's as it had total outstanding derivatives of only US$1.2 trillion and is one third the size. Nevertheless an implosion would do serious damage on a scale that is reflected in its decision to retract this research report which suggested that the price of gold is set for further steep rises. This was a remarkably naïve reaction as all it did was put the spotlight on RBC's vulnerability to gold. By so doing RBC raised memories of a certain Dinsa Mehta who was with JP Morgan for a long time and ran its gold book. Panic is not a pretty sight.
Black Blade: "Interesting" article. The banks are desperate to defend the "line in the sand" at $325 to 330 an ounce. When the derivative books blow up so do the financial stability of the banks. In other words – "Game Over".
Horatio
(7/3/02; 00:41:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 79774)
Nothings changed
An Oklahoman writes to his Banker
?It is impossible for me to send you a check in response to your request.
My present financial condition is due to the effects of federal laws, state laws, county laws, corporation laws, by-laws, brother-in-laws, mother-in-laws, and outlaws that have been foisted upon an unsuspecting public. Through the various laws, I have been held down, held up, walked on, sat on, flattened and squeezed until I do not know where I am, what I am, or why I am.
?These laws compel me to pay a merchants tax, capital tax, stock tax, income tax, real estate tax ,property tax, auto tax, gas tax, water tax, light tax, cigar tax, street tax, school tax, syntax, and carpet tax.
?The government has so supervised my business that I do not know who owns it. I am suspected, expected, inspected, disrespected, examined, reexamined until all I know is that I am supplicated for money for every known need, desire or hope of the human race and, because I refuse to fall and go out and beg, borrow and steal money to give away, I am cussed and discussed, boycotted, talked to, talked about, lied to , lied about, held up, held down, and robbed until I am nearly ruined. So the only reason I am clinging to life is to see what the hell is coming next,? ____ Bennett?s News 1934
KTC
(7/3/02; 00:33:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 79773)
YGM--your message 79745, Will Xerox dwaft Worldcom? No
When Worldcom stock price peak at $53 on 12/31/99, to now, shareowners lost $100B, and Bond investers lost about $30B (I am not that sure about that number). Ernon costs share holders $60B, and some more for Bond holders.
I did not follow Xerox stock price long enough. But on 1/1/2000, Xerox stock was at $24, by 10/16/2000 Xerox stock already fell to $7.75, pretty close to the stock price now. I think Xerox has close to 600M--650M shares outstanding, so from 7.75 to 6, it may cost stock owners lost $1B more or less, nothing close to Worldcom or Enron.
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.
|
Centennial Precious Metals Gold coins & bullion since 1973 Denver, Colorado 80246-0009 We educate first-time investors! |
for quotes and purchase information.
|
