Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. Looking to buy gold coins and bullion? The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets. To join the debate request a discussion password here.
The opinions posted by all guests at this forum are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of this forum shall therefore not be construed as equivalent to endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.
ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/3/2002 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Black Blade (04/03/02; 23:22:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 72659) Israel's Military Sweeps Into Nablus http://www.wn.com/?action=display&article=12838882&template=gas/indexsearch.txt&index=recent Snippit:BETHLEHEM, West Bank (AP) — Israeli tanks rolled into the West Bank's largest city, Nablus, on Wednesday and other troops laid siege to a refugee camp in Jenin, battling Palestinians who barricaded entrances and fought back with bombs and guns. Soldiers also encircled hundreds of Palestinian gunmen holed up in the church marking Jesus' birthplace. Black Blade: There are reports of heavy fighting tonight in Nablus and Jenin. However, it appears that the suicide bombings have ceased (for now). Protests against the US outside embassies in Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt have erupted into violence. Saddam Hussein has increased payouts to families of suicide bombers from $10,000 to $25,000. Also, Israeli anti-war protesters are in combat with Israeli police and many Israeli reservists are refusing to appear for duty and instead going to Israeli military prison (some have signed a petition protesting the war). This war in the Middle East is likely to spread and get much worse. Oil Embargo?Iraq and Iran both have said they may consider an Oil Embargo. That could remove as much as 6.5 million bbl/day from the world market demand of 77 million bbl/day. That is far more than the 1.5 million bbl/day production cuts agreed to by OPEC and Non-OPEC. Even so, Saudi is the only producer capable of increasing production (about 2 to 4 million bbl/day) above pre-agreement levels. Waverider (04/03/02; 23:03:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 72658) Middle East tension affects markets http://www2.swissinfo.org/sen/Swissinfo.html?siteSect=105&sid=1092045 Snippit:"The Swiss franc has risen, oil prices have strengthened and gold has climbed to its highest level in two months as violence in the Middle East continues.Clearly, the Swiss franc has risen sharply against the euro and the US dollar in the last few days," said Hans-Peter Hausheer, a senior economist at UBS. It's part of a historic trend, whereby gold and the Swiss franc are always considered to be safe havens by investors when there are world events that threaten to involve the US or the European Union," he added. Waverider: Yup...if I lived in the ME I know where I would place my $$$$... JA (04/03/02; 21:12:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 72657) Call for return of posters of past years MichaelI rarely post, but have followed this site for years. Over the years there have been a number of posters whose contributions I have greatly valued. Because of such contributors I feel my knowledge and understanding of Gold and how it relates to the financial markets has been enhanced. I am appreciative of their efforts. While you have many great posters at this site currently, a number of the great posters of the past seem to have disappeared. Some days I feel like Black Blade is holding back the villains that would storm the Castle single handedly. He is very capable but your post (#72654) where you throw out an invitation to new knights and Ladies of the Round Table, got me to wondering whatever happened to some of the very strong contributors of past years. Do they no longer visit the site? Did they give up on this ongoing battle over gold? Or are they still around and just tired of posting?I suggest you call a reunion or do a roll call to see if you can get some of those great posters of the past to give us an accounting of their wellbeing and current thoughts on gold. I know it is a mistake to try to name them because many valuable contributors will be overlooked. However I will name just a few that come to mind anyway:OROAristotleAragorn IIIThe StrangerSteve HGandalf the WhitePeter AsherHoltzmanAl FulchinoAnd of course FOA or Trail GuideYou might nominate a committee just like they do for high school reunions in an attempt to find those not accounted for. Just a thought Black Blade (04/03/02; 21:08:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 72656) Puplava Market Wrap Up http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm A Crisis of ConfidenceSnippit:There are many famous quotes that describe today's economic and financial environment. Perhaps you have heard of many of them. The obvious one is "Figures lie and liars figure." Winston Churchill once said, "There are a terrible lot of lies going around the world, and the worst of it is half of them are true." There is even a book out by there called, How to Lie With Statistics by Darrell Huff. Unfortunately, we live at a time when numbers, facts, and statistics can no longer be taken at face value, especially today when looking at economic and financial numbers. It doesn't matter whether you are looking at economic or earnings reports coming from corporations and Wall Street analysts. A crisis of confidence or a lack of trust in our government and financial institutions is the number one crisis now facing the financial markets.UnemploymentSnippit:Another example of this malarkey is the way the unemployment numbers are reported. Last month the government reported the unemployment rate fell in February from 5.6% in January to 5.5% in February. Those numbers are seasonally adjusted (manipulated). This number surprised the financial markets helping to trigger a rally in stocks as another sign the economy was improving. This lower unemployment report stood in stark contrast to daily headlines of continual job cuts being announced by major corporations. The actual numbers unadjusted portrayed a different picture.Black Blade: Amen Brother!!! As I have been pounding on these points for some time. Also not that Jim Puplava tackles the obscene options issue that is defended by unethical deceptive politicians such as Sen. Lieberman (D-CT). And the Trolls on CNBC are wondering why trading volume is so light these days. Hmmm... This is a very good article that nails it! We do definitely live in "Interesting Times". Waverider (04/03/02; 20:55:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 72655) R Powell: Where did the $$ go? Here's a thought Rich...apparently the Arabs have approximately $2.4 trillion expatriated dollars. Every day the ME mess escalates and the probability of regional full scale war grows greater, as does justification for a US invasion of Iraq. One could debate the political pros and cons and probability of these issues, but the point is this...fear. And we know fear and confidence drive the markets. Now...if I were an Arab...particularly if I were a scared Arab...scared of what Saddam might do...scared of what the US might do...scared of the implications of regional escalation...would I be leaving my fiat in the USA, or would I be repatriating my money? I know what I'd do...hence no sector rotation today? Trading volume was about 1.2 billion shares on the DOW, and about 1.7 billion on the Nasdaq...hmmm..light trading they say? Interesting times indeed! Cheers,Waverider USAGOLD (04/03/02; 19:54:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 72654) All. . .Drifting through Internet Channels. . . . Every once in awhile I go to various bookmarks and see what's happening in the internet world. Tonight's journey revealed USAGOLD posters appearing as quotable items (and in some cases highly visible) at various websites. Here is where the foundational thinking is being done and subsequently quoted elsewhere. This is not intended as a swipe at anyone else. . . long may all the gold web sites live in cyberspace, but it is here where the ground is being broken -- THE LEADERSHIP PROVIDED.My thanks to all the top-notch who have decided to make this place their place -- the knights and ladies of this Table Round. It does us proud to see so many of you quoted at so many different places nearly every day.God bless you, all of you.And let me at the same time invite anyone -- no matter where you post now -- to come here and help us move the cause forward.You'll find the welcome mat rolled out -- you'll find a place where you'll be read. Black Blade (04/03/02; 18:43:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 72653) US natural gas production decline accelerating http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=140117 Snippit:HOUSTON, Apr. 3 -- US natural gas production is on the decline, and the decline is accelerating rapidly, according to preliminary results of a Raymond James & Associates Inc. first quarter survey of 30 of the largest US natural gas producers. Supply is declining much faster than most analysts expected, Andrews said. US gas production trends generally lag the rig count by 3-6 months, but last year, US gas production began showing declines before drilling activity peaked in July. Producers were drilling wells that they could bring on production quickly at high flow rates. With activity on these types of prospects now halted, production from high-flow-projects likely will be down by 30-40% this year, he projected. "As a result, sequential production declines should continue to gain momentum as the year progresses, and we continue to believe that US natural gas production could be down by as much as 5-6% this summer on a year-over-year basis," Andrews said. Black Blade: as I have been reporting here for the last several months. It should also be noted that withdrawal rates have more than doubled over last year's rates. This situation may become more critical as the drought on the east coast and other regions deprives hydroelectric facilities of needed water flows. Also, recent boric acid corrosion in nuclear reactors will require extended maintenance and shutdown. Pending legislation on clean-air proposals and a lack of new carbon credits may restrict coal-fired power production. The higher costs of oil and natural gas will sink straight to the bottom line. In short – scratch one US economic recovery for 2002-2003. R Powell (04/03/02; 18:11:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 72652) Assorted thoughts Even with the down day in both mining stocks and metals' prices, gold still received more bubblevision attention again today- charts included. Why do I now have the feeling that down days like today are just the normal down days that every bull market contains. I even took advantage of silver's 8 cent decline, a trick I learned from the 1990's, buy the dips! From today's IBD, open interest numbers Gold 150,180 +3,200 Silver 78,356 +931 I view increasing open interest in a price rising market as a sign of strength. I expect to see some decline in these numbers tomorrow after today's decline but this is to be expected now and then, no? Now that the March 27-31 time has passed, I guess we can say Arch Crawford correctly called the SM downturn but I guess we should say his "market meltdown" prediction was a little overstated. Interesting also was commentary today by the CNBC regulars that volume was very light and the market down due to a noticeable lack of buyers rather than excessive selling. This reminds me of similar comments used to describe "market meltdowns", like 1929 when "there were no buyers!" The CNBC analysts were also concerned that they could not identify any sector rotation. There was no noticeable buying anywhere. Stocks, bonds and commodities were all down. Where did the money go?? Something is not right seemed to be the unspoken thought. Interesting times. Rich Black Blade (04/03/02; 17:56:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 72651) Mk, Siochain,…All MK – Thank you for that information on the Gold derivatives positions held by these banks. That certainly is a Bullish signal. I haven't checked for a while, though I believe that total derivatives positions for these banks were a staggering $47 Trillion (with JP Morgan Chase holding the lion's share – roughly $29 Trillion). I would wonder if they are trying to extricate themselves from those positions as well. If not, then we would know that they feel extremely vulnerable with these Gold derivatives – an extremely Bullish signal. Siochain – I think that Jim Puplava may be on to something. After several years of keeping a cap on Gold prices, institutions may be looking for a new means to keep Gold prices under control. Most unhedged miners are held closely so short sales of these mining shares may be short lived, however, the price of larger mega-hedger shares may feel the pain as investors in those shares are not as passionate about Gold as a store of value or as an alternative currency. Recent large scale selling of US government paper and the sell off on Wall Street can be partly attributed to Japanese institutions and investors selling. There is circumstantial evidence that this cash is being repatriated for propping up domestic markets and paying off debt. For years Japanese investors has kept cash in US based investments as interest rates fell to zero and domestic markets crumbled. Now much of that cash parked in US investments may be coming home. The result is that the withdrawal of this foreign investment and lack of fresh investing from domestic sources has caused the US markets to pull back. Also, a daily listing of earnings warnings, restated earnings, accounting scandals and numerous new SEC probes appear to have cooled the urge to invest. - Black Blade YGM (04/03/02; 17:55:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 72650) Sorry Michael.. That was a USA Gold Post... But love those BB Posts nontheless :0) YGM (04/03/02; 17:51:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 72649) Black Blade Your Post.... USAGOLD (04/03/02; 16:34:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 72645)Black Blade, Siochain. . . .ALLhttp://member.usagold.com/commentaryreview.html---Is the best news yet. Proves the rats are abandoning ship. This is the most concrete evidence yet that "THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT"...Thanks much...YGM. segel_flieger (04/03/02; 17:25:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 72648) Jim Grant - bullish on Gold On a related note, thanks to the person(s) who recently posted about Louis Rukeyser being canned by WSW/MPT. The show really had become a bit of joke from a journalistic perspective. I must admit though, I did watch it from time to time. But mainly as a substitute for the funny pages. I figured that if the "elves" or whatever they were called should ever turn bearish, it might be a sign that the stock market was finally bottoming.Anyhow, I tuned in last friday based on the news here that LR had been given the boot. The show was hosted by Marshall Loeb (sp?) and one of the guests was none other that Jim Grant, the king of the "Bond Vigilantes". I don't remember his exact words, but his comments on the markets went something like; "Unlike some people, I don't have much confidence in the central banks. I'm very bullish on Gold, which is much like the opposite of the central banks." I had known long ago that Jim was bullish on Gold, but it was sure nice to see it said on WSW without some security guards appearing on camera to take him away. (Given that LR always went out of his way to ridicule Gold on virtually every show, I'll bet he was enraged by that if he was watching).In what little "mainstream" press that I follow, I have noticed that Gold has been mentioned more and more lately, and sometimes with a positive tone. My take is that this is NOT a coincidence. It suggests (to me) that a big move in gold is coming and the only question is when? Many people who own(ed) stocks feel betrayed by Wall Street for having been mauled by Mr. Bear when they were told to just close their eyes and hold on. For a megabull market in Gold to appear without ANY warning at all from the GE Capital Channel and the rest of the puppet press would only add to the growing distrust of Wall Street. Just my 0.02/35 oz of gold... TownCrier (04/03/02; 17:18:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 72647) TRUE ON MANY LEVELS: "You know going in, it takes awhile to change people's habits." http://www.forbes.com/work/managementtrends/newswire/2002/04/03/rtr558670.html HEADLINE: US Mint suspends production of dollar coinsBy Jonathan NicholsonWASHINGTON (Reuters) - Only a few years after their introduction, the U.S. Mint has suspended production of "golden" dollar coins for commercial use and said it will evaluate its need to produce them next year.The move came to light with the recent release of a Treasury Inspector General's report that urged a production halt to save money."We are not currently producing circulating golden dollars," Mike White, spokesman for the U.S. Mint, said on Wednesday.Rep. Michael Castle, the Delaware Republican who sponsored the legislation creating a new dollar coin, said the coin's problems are due to its lack of use commercially.White also said the coin is finding acceptance for uses such as in vending machines and for urban subway systems, but the Mint knew it had a tough job when it introduced the coin."You know going in, it takes awhile to change people's habits," White said.------------Widespread public attention in America to such "revolutionary concepts" as prudent gold diversifaction can require a long trip down the runway before taking wing, skyward. It happened in Japan, it will happen here. There's nothing quite like the sinking feeling of being caught out of a good thing to motivate the next wave of buyers. Unlike stocks, new "shares" of gold metal can't be suddenly registered for distribution out of thin air to satisfy investor demand and to further allow the corporation to capitalize on the newfound interest.Only gold in metal form has the beneficial qualities that have through the long ages been attributed to gold. Think about it...R. TownCrier (04/03/02; 16:55:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 72646) HEADLINE: Gold hovers near two-month high mark http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?click_id=345&art_id=ct20020403185945762N243665&set_id=60 (Reuters April 04 2002) London - Gold markets shadowed their strongest level in two months yesterday as Israel widened its assault in the West Bank and traders predicted further price gains.Gold is just shy of its firmest level in two years, when it touched $309 in spot markets on February 17 2000."While tensions remain elevated in the Middle East and the lack of selling continues, gold looks set to make fresh gains," said John Reade, metals analyst at UBS Warburg.----------Knowing what technical trade can do to a market once it nudges past long term resistance, you'll want to establish your position in metal. When push comes to shove and liquidity tightness precipitates a whole new ballgame, you will be glad you were proactive rather than reactive.R. USAGOLD (04/03/02; 16:34:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 72645) Black Blade, Siochain. . . .ALL http://member.usagold.com/commentaryreview.html Something interesting is going on in the overall gold derivatives' positions. The top three U.S. gold bullion banks' positions fell from $73.2 billion in Dec00 to $48.9 billion in Dec01 reflecting the overall reduction in the gold carry trade positions over the course of 2001. John Doody (Gold Stock Analyst) says "recent CB efforts, overt and covert, are designed to keep a short-term lid on gold's price, effectively 'holding the door open' for the commercial banks to get positions squared, or get out all together. If one of these major banks was to require rescue by the Fed or the German or UK Central Bank, it would be far more damaging to world economies, and the rescue more costly, than to keep a lid on gold and allow the big commercial banks get out with survivable losses." Taking a closer look at the Gold Derivatives Table published at the News & Views page (linked above), one can see that most of the reduction has occurred at J.P. Morgan which went from $30.5 billion 12/00 to $7.3 billion 12/01. I find this very interesting. That makes two out of the big three American gold derivatives' players showing a reduction to the $7 billion level.Is it now Chase's turn in 2002 to move to the $7 billion level?I think Doody's right. There holding the door open with derivatives in order to exit their carry trade positions or get the losses to a manageable level -- a workout as we have described many times before. And Chase may be the last to squeak through before the gold demand slams it shut.This is the best evidence available why gold might be ready to explode. It's like holding a spring with your foot -- when you let go you'd better get out of the way.Everywhere you look in gold's numbers -- derivatives, the LBMA, etc -- the numbers are telling us that the gold carry trade and mine lending are being unwound.This is one of the most solid indicators I've seen in a long while why the knights and ladies at this Table might take heart - - Nay, not just take heart, but tip their flagons in celebration.The battle is being carried, the war won. nickel62 (04/03/02; 15:50:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 72644) segel_flieger Thanks for your help I did not realize that the Deep Post deposit was on the Newmont part of the property. Thank you for the information. segel_flieger (04/03/02; 15:39:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 72643) Slope collapse at Betze Mine http://www.newmont.com/inv_relations/newsreleases.htm I read the post here about a week ago concerning the slope collapse at the Betze Mine. What was puzzling about it was the reference to the Deep Post Mine in a context that suggested it belonged to Barrick. I seemed to remember that mine as being owned by Newmont, so I just did a little checking on Newmont's web site. For what it's worth you can read the Newmont side of the story, (link above). At any rate, it doesn't sound as if there is any problem with production at the Deep Post Mine. Sounds like a misunderstanding to me?Click on "general", then look for the articles; 9/5/2001 Newmont's Deep Post Mine Reopened 8/29/2001 Slope Movement Occurs at Nevada Mine Sierra Madre (04/03/02; 15:31:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 72642) Siochain: about Puplava's view of yesterday's sell-off of gold stocks I said exactly the same thing yesterday.After so many years in this, one develops a sort of intuition about these matters. Sometimes it is wrong, of course.The price of gold - actually, the price of the dollar in gold would be a more correct expression - is in an established up-trend. This is not going to be changed by manipulation. The bullion banks are fighting a rear-guard action, in retreat - the hardest of military exercises, by the way."They're on the run, boys!"Sierra Siochain (04/03/02; 15:22:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 72641) Also a comment re yesterday's last hour From cafeFrom savvy Jim Puplava Bill, There was unusual activity in the gold share markets today. As the price of oil, natural gas, gold and silver moved up so did share prices. Then during the final hour of trading an unusual pattern developed. Gold and silver bullion prices rose while share prices fell. I watched daily money flows on several key stocks. The big ones first. Then there appeared to be a big sell-off in all the major shares. This seemed unusual in that the metals price was rising. Oil and natural gas, and oil service shares rose along with defense stocks which we own. The only unusual pattern was in the metals shares. They may now become the new target for the cabal. The momentum crowd would not have been selling on a day like this. So somebody(just guessing) triggered the sell-off which got picked up by the radar screens of day traders. Then stocks sold off. With all of the publicity that gold and silver shares have been getting lately the last thing they want is for John Q. Public to start buying gold and silver mining shares. I own 4 percent of a junior mining company and will take that interest higher in the next week. I know that when the shares hit $1.50 my market maker told me that Charles Schwab sold the shares short. Now those shares are over $2. Today my market maker was telling me Schwab was shorting the stock. This company is owned by very strong hands. All of us who own it are long-term holders of the shares. So I don't know where Schwab is going to get the shares to cover their position. The shares are thinly traded on the Toronto and on the Nasdaq. They are going to get squeezed. The last block I bought was from a hedge fund that had gotten itself in trouble. They were trying to sell the only thing they had that was up which was their mining shares. This is how I'm picking up my next block position. Anyway I thought I would just mention today's action in the precious metals shares because it was so unusual. It didn't add up. There was no sector rotation taking place that would have caused the momentum crowd to exit their shares. I think the cabal is looking at the precious metals stocks as well. It is tough to explain many of the juniors stocks are up over 100 percent since January. The HUI is up over 47 percent YTD and up close to 100 % over the last 52 weeks. Gold shares were the best performing sector last year and the best performing sector during the first quarter. This should be front page news everyday but it isn't outside CBS's Tom Calandra. All The Best Jim Puplava Siochain (04/03/02; 15:13:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 72640) The Morgans Orchestrate Gold Sell-Off Right On Cue From the cafe:The Morgans Orchestrate Gold Sell-Off Right On CueThe John Brimelow Report:Indian premiums: AM $1.54, PM $ $1.19, with world gold at $305.10 and $304.90. Below legal import levels.Today has proven quite a triumph for the predictive qualities of both the gold shares, which sold off ominously yesterday afternoon, and for MarketVane's Bullish Consensus, which finally showed exuberance, jumping last night 3 points to a dangerous 77%. Actually, Tocom gold opened firm and pushed gold up to $307 - 70 cents short of February's high. But once the active contract reached 1300 yen, a popular trading objective, a reaction set in. This was exacerbated by a marked strengthening in the yen, and by the appearance of "US bank selling" (UBS Warburg) which has continued this morning. Volume was 34,200 Comex equivalent, moderate by recent standards, and open interest fell by only 79,600 ozs, which does not suggest a major liquidation is underway.Short term, Tocom buying is extremely yen sensitive, and a wave of complacency about the currency is on the move. However, a currency experiencing 34% monetary base growth is not going up long.JBAs John pointed out via the UBS Warburg comment, it was US bank selling that capped the gold rally in Japan. It was as active a gold market in Japan last night as I can recall. Gold was on the move and then The Gold Cartel showed up to do their thing again.These crooks are most predicable and most irritating. They do get an "A" though for consistency.Late yesterday I learned that Morgan Stanley went around during the day telling the hedge funds that the gold move was over for the time being. That is what halted the gold share move higher. Today it was JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs taking gold down on the Comex - one big happy family, the New York bullion bankers.Of note is that Morgan Stanley has been much more visible on Comex in recent weeks compared to year's past. Over those years I have pointed out that Morgan Stanley was one of the silent cabal members. My sources tell me they have been all over the gold and silver action lately, but have here-to-fore been low-key about it.At this time I think it might be a good idea to point out that the criminals in these firms are only a few in number and they are the very senior people. All of these corporations employ many superb people, a few are even Café members - ones interested in the financial truth like the rest of us.Silver was stopped with gold at critical $4.75 resistance - perfect timing by the market manipulation crew.Every day the financial news and related commentary gets more gold/silver bullish and more stock market bearish:New York, April 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries fell on concern inflation will accelerate as the economy rebounds from recession, dimming the allure of fixed-rate investments. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig last night said the economy is growing faster than expected, bolstering expectations the central bank will raise interest rate by midyear to curb faster inflation. ``With the funds rate at a 40-year low, and one Fed official saying there will be inflation down the road, that suggests the Fed is going to raise rates,'' said George Adell, director of fixed-income research at Philadelphia-based Starboard Capital Markets. He expects the Fed to boost its rate target as much as 1.25 percentage points to 3 percent by the end of the year. Black Blade (04/03/02; 14:44:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 72639) Companies reduce hedge positions http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=29022173&ID=cnniw&scategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious& Snippit:Gold's return as an investment choice has been spurred by the announcements by several large mining companies that they will reduce their hedge positions. Potential investors were pleased to hear that. Black Blade: It makes no sense to sell forward with interest bearing investments falling flat. Also, the outlook for Gold is quite positive. World events are also positive for Gold and Energy.Warfare in Palestine is intensifying with reports of fierce gun battles in Jenin and tanks starting to move into Nablus. Today Egypt cut off diplomatic relations with Israel. Sharon and one of his generals were overheard on an open mike discussing how they should assassinate of one of Arafats advisors. There exists the possibility that Israeli tanks may level Christian shrines in Bethlehem to get Palestinian gunmen. This mess is getting out of hand. RobotGuy (04/03/02; 14:36:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 72638) Saddam - - - Boosts Martyr payments http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/ap20020403_1000.html Article:NABLUS, West Bank April 3 — Saddam Hussein has increased money for the relatives of suicide bombers from $10,000 to $25,000, drawing sharp criticism from Washington. But Palestinians say the bombers are driven by a priceless thirst for revenge, religious zeal and dreams of glory not greed.Since Iraq upped its payments last month, 12 suicide bombers have successfully struck inside Israel, including one man who killed 25 Israelis, many of them elderly, as they sat down to a meal at a hotel to celebrate the Jewish holiday of Passover. The families of three suicide bombers said they have recently received payments of $25,000.The devout Muslims among the bombers, a majority, believe they will go to heaven as martyrs and spend eternity in the company of 72 virgins. In grainy farewell home videos, they often read passages from the Muslim holy book, the Quran, and praise God. Secular attackers know that after the deed, their families will win the adulation of friends, neighbors and strangers.The other motive seems to be a strong yearning for revenge. Relatives of many of the bombers recall how many of the young men's formative years were spent in Israeli jails. The mother of one bomber said her son once watched Israeli soldiers beating his father.Mahmoud Safi, leader of a pro-Iraqi Palestinian group, the Arab Liberation Front, acknowledged that the support payments for relatives make it easier for some potential bombers to make up their minds. "Some people stop me on the street, saying if you increase the payment to $50,000 I'll do it immediately," Safi said. He also suggested such remarks were made mostly in jest.Saddam has said the Palestinians need weapons and money instead of peace proposals and has provided payments throughout a year and a half of Israeli-Palestinian battles. "I saw on Iraqi TV President Saddam saying he will continue supporting the (uprising) even if it means selling his own clothes," said Safi.Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said Saddam's payments inspire a "culture of political murder.""Here is an individual who is the head of a country, Iraq, who has proudly, publicly made a decision to go out and actively promote and finance human sacrifice for families that will have their youngsters kill innocent men, women and children," Rumsfeld said Wednesday.But Saddam is not the only one giving money. Charities from Saudi Arabia and Qatar both U.S. allies pay money to families of Palestinians killed in the fighting, including suicide bombers.The mother of Jamal Nasser, a 23-year-old architecture student who died trying to ram an explosives-laden car into a bus carrying Jewish settlers, said she received a check for $10,000 from Iraq and another for $5,000 from Saudi Arabia. She said she plans to put the money toward buying an apartment. She wants to move her family from the small place they've been renting for more than 20 years. The money she received is about half the cost of a small apartment in Nablus.Fifty-five Palestinians have blown themselves up in attacks on Israeli civilians in the past 18 months of fighting.Under the new Iraqi payscale, decided on March 12 during an Arab conference in Baghdad, the families of gunmen and others who die fighting the Israelis will still receive $10,000, while the relatives of suicide bombers will get $25,000.Safi and two others from the Arab Liberation Front visit families in the northern West Bank and make the payments. "We go to every family and give them a check," he said. "We tell them that this is a gift from President Saddam and Iraq."###########################################################RobotGuy; Well, I think that might be an indication of support for terrorism. I wonder if the payments are upped if the attacks take place in the 'western world'? Black Blade (04/03/02; 14:31:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 72637) Options-Expense Bill Meets Opposition http://www.latimes.com/business/la-000023704apr03.story?coll=la%2Dheadlines%2Dbusiness Snippit:A bill to force companies to treat employee stock options as an expense faces opposition in House and Senate tax committees, and from a countermeasure offered by a Senate committee chairman.House Ways and Means Chairman William M. Thomas, a Bakersfield Republican who oversees tax legislation, opposes a bill sponsored by Michigan Democrat Sen. Carl Levin and Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain that would force firms to report options as corporate expenses and deduct them from income. So does Thomas' counterpart in the Senate, Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus of Montana.Black Blade: There are many Senators and Congressmen who oppose ethics and honesty – gee, go figure. Just another sign of the times. Black Blade (04/03/02; 14:23:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 72636) SEC accounting probe broadens http://www.msnbc.com/news/733409.asp?cp1=1 Investigation of irregularities targets some of largest U.S. firms Snippit: April 3 — The Securities and Exchange Commission is looking into accounting methods at some of the nation's largest companies, broadening the scope of its inquiry beyond the accounting issues raised by the collapse of Enron Corp. to include a laundry list of other potential accounting abuses. Black Blade: The "toothless tiger" – the SEC appears to have found some courage and is finally doing its job investigating accounting irregularities. We may see several Enrons come to light. RobotGuy (04/03/02; 14:01:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 72635) Mr. Gresham - - - Hipplebeck Thank-you Mr. Gresham, you said exactly what I was trying to say. Hipplebeck, I do own gold, and my measly purchase of a little more isn't going to inspire the POG, but I do also own gold stocks. What you are saying is very legitimate, and those types of thougts go through my mind every day when I look at my portfolio and think about withdrawing my money and dumping it all into physical gold. There are a few things however in the back of my mind that keep telling me that if and when there is a real run-up, people won't be able to buy physical fast enough. Once everyone who is a long term investor has accumulated the world supply, we must rely on newfound sources ie. mining companies. Most people who purchase gold will look at historical prices and determine when they will sell for a quick buck, and that will cause the market to roll for quite some time, but eventually those who want to keep it for stability will get a hold of it and we're going to have to start looking at mother earth for what's left. That my friend is precisely why I continue to hold stocks in mining companies with little or no obligations or debts, and proven in ground resources,.. even gold exploration companies. Don't get me wrong, a fast buck is very appealing, but I'm starting slowly to get it through my thick head that a fast buck is much harder to find now more than ever. In my opinion the most important thing for the benefit of gold or any PM is that it gets divided into many hands and I think we're seeing that these days alas. Siochain (04/03/02; 13:49:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 72634) A view of what is happening Dow Jones NewswireTokyo April 3 After breaking through the key $305anounces resistance level overnight in New York, gold could shoot for $325 and then $350m said John H. Mesrobian, president of Virginia based Constantinople Advisors."Many hedgers, bullion banks and shorts are exposed to gold breaking above $305. Gold taking out this level will put these bullion banks and hedgers in a panic, for their positions will be under water. In the end these shorts will have to cover and they will cause some spikes along the way", he told Dow Jones newswire in a recent interview.Mesrobian said Constantinople Advisors, which advises corporate and individual investors on currencies, sovereign bonds, gold and other commodities, has issued a "multiple spike alert" for the gold market."Gold could see a $25 to $50 move at any time in these unstable political times. We have problems in the Middle East, Afghanistan, Pakistan and other places," he said.Mesrobian is also predicting a further rise in oil prices, which could help gold as these two commodities have historically moved in step"We expect to push through $30 or $32 a barrel based on the current state of the markets and other conditions. We would add that if there is a war or if (Yassaar) Arafat is killed, then oil prices will shoot much higher, even past the $40 mark," he said.Mesrobian sees a strong appetite for bullion in the Asian region, especially among Japanese investors."As the yen continues to weaken you will see the Japanese buying more gold. Watch the Y147.50 area. If the yen breaches this level it will drop a lot more, and then watch the gold market," he said."We were told over a year ago by a well known Japanese investor that the Japanese will give up on both the yen and the dollar at some point and start buying more gold. This move will be slow at first and then speed up." Mesrobian said.Siochain...What we are seeing now is one of those spikes ...though down...as TPTB seek to get above water...gasping...it should be quite a battle for a little longer...though the war has been won IMO...it's just a matter of time and circumstance Hipplebeck (04/03/02; 13:31:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 72633) To all my friends on the forum It appears to me that there are many wealthy people in the Middle East who are divesting themselves of US stocks and putting their wealth somewhere else. I say this because I want any of you that are in the stock market to think seriously about this. I don't think the market is going up any time soon. I don't know about gold mining companies, but I personally think it is much better to have the physical in hand anyway. I never have understood how someone who wants truth and justice in the markets could play the paper game anyway. The way derivatives work, if everyone just played with paper, it wouldn't matter how much gold was out there. It only has an effect on price if people actually buy the metal. No matter how much a gold mining stock goes up, it is completely irrelavent if someone is not actually buying gold. Think about it, what if all these folks who think they have so much more leverage with gold stocks never bought gold itself. Gold stocks will only hold higher levels if someone is actually buying gold.Now I am not giving investment advice, because I am not a professional, and it may be that there is quite a bit of selling of stocks because it is almost April 15 and people need the money to pay their taxes like a couple of years ago, but I believe that the USA is on the worlds sh#tlist these days, and in my opinion rightly so. We all know the dollar is overpriced, accounting is a lie, etc. It may be that the Middle East war is giving a lot of people the push they have needed to reevaluate where they are invested.Just my humble opinion Mr Gresham (04/03/02; 12:46:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 72632) uponroof, RobotGuy, R Powell uponroof -- my thoughts exactly! only possible "why" is: because they're already insolvent at certain higher prices, so might as well defend it, play for time, and hope for a miracle. I guess we'll find out some day.RobotGuy -- that's what I always wonder when I hear those "traders were concerned about blah blah today" -- does anyone actually go around and ask the guys putting in sell orders what they're thinking. No! You know that doesn't happen. No one calls the investors with a daily opinion survey (I don't know why not, if they really wanted to lend credibility to these blatant fabrications.) No, some reporter knows all he has to do is pick something else off the wire and put it together with the market direction and a boilerplate paragraph and get his hourly blah-blah filed. I mean, how wrong am I here?R Powell -- Methinks our friend GR2 has a little shack in Hadley down 'tween the river and the potato fields, and grows his own favorite 'baccy nearby. Ever do the canoe trip? Old Yeller (04/03/02; 12:40:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 72631) What's up with gold? http://www.consensus-inc.com/newsletter/feature.htm YGM (04/03/02; 11:54:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 72630) R Powell (04/03/02; 10:42:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 72626) Thanks ......(FOA & Another still "MIA" & Missed!) It's very nice to be back among the friendlies....YGMMissing FOA alot tho! Actually hoped to see some comments by old friend Another by this time. They must both be very busy because any slights given them by obnoxious posters in the past are long forgotten along with the posters who spoke them.....C'mon back gentlemen and share your thoughts again...... RobotGuy (04/03/02; 11:49:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 72629) Blame it on,...hmmm,...let's see,..... It seem to me that there's every excuse in the books for a downed market. Yesterday it was 'waiting on government decisions', the day before it was terrorist attacks and fear thereof, and today it's trouble in the mid-east and worries associated. When the markets are slightly up, they're "Soaring!" "Cruising" "Blasting off" "ripping through the ceiling" and my favorite "Off the canvas." Positive notes on good days are solely responsible for a climbing market, and positive notes on bad days are conveniently weighted to appear not so special. Why is it that the Japanese stock market can have a good day in all this terrible mid-east stuff that's drowning the North-American markets? Are the Japanese not affected by goings on in the middle-east, or do we merely need to find an excuse for a failing market? How hard will it be for Alan Greenspan to swallow his tongue and admit to the public, 'oops we were wrong, we're not in recovery mode after all,.. teeheeheee. Hope you can forgive us for dipping into your civil servant retirement funds, and driving us deeper into the abyss.' What happens to all of those poor souls who spend money on government bonds and hope to see thier money in thirty years,.. and oops, we spent that too, didn't we tell you?... Sorry. This whole speil is like me and credit. I used to make more when there was more work, so I don't mind using a little credit, cause I know I'll make more when it gets busy again, and I can maintain my luxurious lifestyle and pay for it next year,.. or the year after,... or the year after. Soon my credit company says hmmmm,.. we've been looking at you're income lately and we feel you owe too much, so we're going to stop allowing you to utilize your credit for awhile. Sound familiar? Congress,... raise debt ceiling?? What can I do as an individual? Go to the bank and take out the money I was earning interest on and repay my creditors. If necessary, I could dip into my retirement savings. Government? Same Same. Or should we say Shame Shame. The only difference between individuals and government, is that individuals must come clean in one lifetime, governments screw up many lifetimes. Where do we go for more money after depleting retirement savings? More Debt? Who's going to vote for you next time?If you read anything in this post, read this line first and you'll understand everything above - - - Blah Blah BlahSometimes I just write.RobotGuy. uponroof (04/03/02; 11:36:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 72628) 'The American Advisor' Just listened to their 12:30 report:"...Gold beaten down today by the selling of a single large Bullion Bank. Their effort alone caused bullion to dip..."* * * * Now think about that...WHY WOULD YOU SELL GOLD IN THIS GLOBAL CLIMATE, INTO A RISING MARKET?!If this doean't illustrate the desperation nothing does. 305 POG is NOTHING in historical terms!!!! But apparently it is something to be fiercly defended today thanks to a failed manipulation policy.Don't know if this is related but just read that the Swiss were now selling 'only' 1/2 tonne per day, while up until recently they were selling 3/4 to 1 tonne per day. Perhaps they've increased selling today to make up for the reduced amounts of late. If not them, there's always the Germans to consider.But ya know...who cares?!Global demand will not be denied or deterred by strategic Central Bank selling. In fact, if they keep dicking around using reserves to fight a pissy little 305 mark, 'reserves' might become nothing but a memory after the dam breaks at 340. Mr Gresham (04/03/02; 11:31:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 72627) O Little Town of Bethlehem http://www.msnbc.com/news/677951.asp?pne=msn "Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem Michel Sabbah offered sanctuary to Palestinian militants in Bethlehem's Church of the Nativity."I've been. Very tiny place."A tank was stationed Wednesday at the edge of Manger Square, adjacent to the church."David and Goliath. Roles claarly reversed.Un-self-conscious arrogance.Something not quite right here.Including dumb moves on the chessboard of international relations -- and religions. Shooting yourself in the rear end. "Hey -- let's blow up EVERYONE'S religious icons while we're at it!" (Look what happened to the Taliban after they blew up those Buddhist statues.)Bush and Sharon. Dumb and dumber. Can't these guys hire better advisors? Or, do they just not listen to the ones they already have?I'm tryin' to get some work done today. Do I have to come down there and knock some heads together? That's what we hired YOU to do, Georgie. Tail wags dog again, don' look too good... R Powell (04/03/02; 10:42:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 72626) (No Subject) Truthcaster and nickel62, please reread yesterday's posts 72561 from The Stranger and 72579 from Pizz. They should give some comfort and calm your nerves. GR2, hello, does the Connecticut River flow through that "happy valley" you refered to? I agree that the POG has entered and can sustain a long term bull phase without any major crisis. Many of the underlying potential crisis causing problems you refered are fundamental reasons supporting a higher POG but can do so just by their existence, their potential to cause crisis. Hopefully, most will be defused over time. A much higher POG is actually the solution to some of these, no? YGM, good to hear from you again. Even when you left to work (driving heavy equipment?) for wages I thought that the lure of a substantial strike would be with you. May the force be with you when you resume the search! Rich Mr Gresham (04/03/02; 10:29:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 72625) Liu: Military Keynesianism http://csf.colorado.edu/forums/pkt/2000/msg02796.html Hope you don't mind if I stick this (kinda long) up here for later reading -- I think I like this guy... Mr Gresham (04/03/02; 10:23:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 72624) Liu: China & WTO http://csf.colorado.edu/pen-l/nov99/msg01829.html Here's a Henry Liu re-post on the longwaves forum... Pippin (04/03/02; 09:20:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 72623) WSJ: questionning the books Found an interesting article in the electronic version of the Wall Street Journal with the subject "questionning the books".Till now, I ignored that this type of investigations had already been started years ago, leading to surprising discoveries :Quote<<On Monday, Xerox Corp. disclosed that it will pay a $10 million civil penalty and restate four years of earnings after a more than two-year investigation into the company's accounting. The fine is the largest ever levied by the agency against a public firm in connection with financial-reporting violations.>>UnQuoteSo this is not an entirely <new> problem. A two-year investigation does not look like normal auditing.Restate four years of earnings! I wonder what will happen if the SEC demonstrates that dividends paid to shareholders were exxagerated. Ask the shareholders to give them back :-) ?Could this have a tax-related aspect? Because tax are paid on earnings and/or dividends in most countries. So if earnings were over-started, undue taxes were also paid...One day, maybe, one will discover that cheating took place in the gold market-related accounting also... nickel62 (04/03/02; 09:14:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 72622) Truthcaster Motive? Your stocks that you were so concerned about an hour ago are now recovering nicely...the canadian gold Glamis is now down only a penny or two and Newmont is now off only 55 cents. Coure De Lane CDE is still of 2 cents and GOld is now off almost 37 cents WOW! Thanks for warning us about that disaster! nickel62 (04/03/02; 09:01:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 72621) Sorry Belgian I should have address the last post to Cavan nickel62 (04/03/02; 08:48:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 72620) Belgian glad to repost best wishes to you! Cobra to found this one... Creative accounting and the destructive risk By Henry C K Liu Alan Greenspan, chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board, frequently credits US growth in the 1990s to a rise in productivity made possible by advances in technology. Yet studies have shown that computerization did not simulate much rise in industrial productivity in the 1990s. Industrial computerization was essentially in place long before 1995. The 1990s boom in the US was not an industrial boom but a financial boom. This was made possible by three developments: the deregulation of financial markets, the computerization of trading of financial instruments, and globalization, particularly financial globalization. The entire structured finance (derivatives) phenomenon would not be possible without any one of the above mentioned developments. Structured finance in essence allowed an unprecedented explosion of credit, by unbundling risks for a wide range of risk-takers who sought corresponding compensatory returns. While hedging initially provided protection against volatility to individual market participants, it soon became a profit center for financial institutions. This led to the institutionalization of volatility as a market opportunity. Financial institutions actually sought volatility in the system to provide a continuous profit stream. Creative accounting, whose peculiar logic evolved from structured finance, also made the traditional debt/equity ratio immaterial. Ways were devised for the large market participants to structure debt as hedges, through swaps that avoided taxes and balance-sheet liabilities. Swaps enabled borrowers legally to book loan proceeds as current operating income and loan liabilities as future capital expenditure that could be kept off the balance sheet, inflating current earnings. Circular counterparty risks suddenly became neutralized risk, and cash flow from swaps became net revenue. These practices are now known as Enronitis. On the macro level, the global finance game has become a sure win for those who use dollars, especially those whose government issues dollars by fiat. The world market has become a place where the United States makes dollars and the rest of the world makes what dollars can buy. But after the Asian financial crisis of 1997, the whole world essentially adopted dollarization, if not directly, at least through hedges, albeit sometimes at prohibitive cost. At that point, the US economy suddenly began to lose its exclusive dollar hegemony advantage because US entities were no longer the only ones with access to dollars nor could US transnationals avoid non-dollar revenue. To maintain the "strong dollar" monetary policy instituted by US treasury secretary Robert Rubin at the beginning of the Bill Clinton presidency, the US Federal Reserve progressively tightened dollar money supply throughout most of the 1990s. But this did not slow the US economy because structured finance permitted debt to expand without a corresponding expansion of equity. A strong dollar gave the US economy a boom in low-cost imports, while the US trade deficit merely forced foreign exporters to hold dollar reserves to finance the US debt bubble through a US capital account surplus. Japan did this for a whole decade, pushing its own economy into permanent recession while its dollar reserves mounted. Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan took up the slack from Japan by 1995 and the three Chinese economies together now hold more dollar reserves than Japan does. China, starved for capital for domestic development, thus finds itself stuck with US$200 billion in US Treasury bills that pay 5 percent while it is forced to offer foreign direct investment high double-digit returns. The annual interest gap alone is in excess of $20 billion, which amounts to half of China's current annual foreign-capital inflow. Growth in the 1990s came from a structural shift of the US economy from industrial capitalism to finance capitalism. Through financial globalization, the US shifted labor intensive manufacturing off US soil to low-wage locations, thus lowering the cost of manufactured products. Financial products and services and intellectual property valuation constituted most of the growth, making the US a consumer market of last resort for the whole world. London, Frankfurt, Paris, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore became financial outposts of New York, sucking up dollar reserves to support the US debt bubble. This game is ending, as the US consumer market becomes saturated and condemned to low single-digit growth, regardless of business cycles. The wealth effect from a tripling of equity value did not double consumption in the US, because aggregate demand is constrained by a widening income disparity. The rich have bought all the manufactured products they need and the working poor cannot afford to buy all they want. The wealth effect did double investment globally, reflected in the phenomenal rise in market capitalization of US transnationals and financial institutions, particularly in the so-called New Economy. The competition for credit favored double-digit growth markets in the developing countries, but the US continued to dominate global finance through its sophistication and innovation in finance and through dollar hegemony. The problem is that all unregulated markets eventually self-destruct. Weak competitors are naturally forced off the market, leading to monopolies that are the result of market failure of competition. Yet regulation cannot cure the problem preemptively because remedial regulation only makes sense after disasters, never before. There is increasing evidence that the real threat to China is not democracy or the market economy per se but the peculiar US version of these institutions. The 19th-century industrial capitalism that Marx observed no longer exists. Finance capitalism is a system in which capital is only a notional value upon which to build a gigantic mountain of hidden debt. Representative democracy and unregulated market fundamentalism in the US mode now work as legalized constitutional devices to disfranchise the poor and weak, both locally and globally. Greenspan acknowledged this in his semiannual monetary policy report to the US Congress, before the Committee on Financial Services on February 27: "From one perspective, the ever-increasing proportion of our GDP [gross domestic product] that represents conceptual as distinct from physical value-added may actually have lessened cyclical volatility. In particular, the fact that concepts cannot be held as inventories means a greater share of GDP is not subject to a type of dynamics that amplifies cyclical swings. But an economy in which concepts form an important share of valuation has its own vulnerabilities." He was of course referring to Enronitis. Greenspan's observation about the vulnerabilities of conceptual valuation was on target, although his warning of vulnerability was disproportionately misplaced. Even after the Enron and Global Crossing controversies, Greenspan continues to resist regulation, preferring to rely on market discipline. The risk is much higher than he admits. Past records do not reliably project future vulnerability risk. Any risk manager knows that accidents are always waiting to happen. The fact that it has not happened in the past does not mean it will not happen in the future. In fact, with each passing day without an accident, the risk of borrowed time increases. Low probability is only a source of comfort if the impact is not fatal. Also, what Greenspan did not say, but admitted by implication, was that finance capitalism is operating with less and less reliance on capital. Capital has become a notional value in structured finance. Credit is no longer anchored by equity but by circular hedges. Debt-to-equity ratio is no longer a relevant consideration. Practically all US major businesses nowadays, with their high debt leverage, would have negative real equity if the price/earning (P/E) ratio were to return to historical norms. Blue chips are being shut out of the unsecured short-term commercial paper market. Corporate credit ratings are inflated by exorbitant market capitalization value, which in turn reflects irrational P/E ratios. Even now, during what many on Wall Street contend to be a savage bear market, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index yields 25 times earnings. It would have to fall by another 41 percent to reach the median valuation prevailing since 1957. Such a decline can happen in a period of days in this age of program trading and socialized risk, even with circuit breakers and trading curbs. When that happens, structured finance will be a sea of dead and wounded in counterparty casualties, regardless of who won and who lost. Henry C K Liu is chairman of the New York-based Liu Investment Group. nickel62 (04/03/02; 08:46:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 72619) Thanks YGM Your insights as an actual participant in the business is invaluable to all of us. sector (04/03/02; 08:45:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 72618) Telcos Layoffs Continue...WorldCom http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3GSK0BLZC&live=true&tagid=IXLI0L9Z1BC WorldCom to cut 5,500 jobs and redeem bondsBy Richard Waters in New YorkPublished: April 3 2002 15:56 | Last Updated: April 3 2002 16:04WorldCom is preparing to cut up to 10 per cent of the jobs at its main business services division, according to a person familiar with the plans. The cuts, which would affect as many as 5,500 workers, mark the latest attempt by the US telecommunications company to come to terms with pressures in the troubled long-distance and data communications industries. The lay-offs will not affect the 20,000 workers at MCI Communications, WorldCom's independently-listed consumer long-distance business, the person familiar with the plans said. Separately, WorldCom said it would redeem $700m of bonds issued by MCI. The repurchase follows persistent speculation that a shortage of cash would eventually force WorldCom to cut the dividend paid to MCI's shareholders, and possibly repurchase the tracking stock. The telecoms company had consistently said that it has no such plans.+++++++++++++++++++++++++Weeeeeeee! Isn't this recovery GREAT! Just imagine how much FUN these workers are having….as they prepare to visit the local unemployment office. YGM (04/03/02; 08:43:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 72617) Nickel162 Wolverine Dep. I think it was an area play that lost it's luster. Atna president Peter Delancey (whom I know) is as sharp as a pin and never would have let it go otherwise. Atna had a good run w/ it tho....Expat----- is a ship of fools. Waverider (04/03/02; 08:40:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 72616) Cavan Man Re: Mr. Liu - see yesterdays post by Nickel62 #72552. Cheers! Cavan Man (04/03/02; 08:37:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 72615) PIZZ Great thoughts on AU and AG; paper and metal. Cavan Man (04/03/02; 08:36:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 72614) Belgian, CB (too) Did I miss comments by this Mr. CK Liu? Can you illuminate? Homeward bound....CM nickel62 (04/03/02; 08:35:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 72613) Truthcaster the truth is even the stocks which you quoted are off only a fraction GLG an old time Canadian spec stock which is off 2.6% intraday, GOLD or Goldfields is off .38 cents on a $10 plus stock after having doubled in the last four months and Cour de lane is a silver stock and is off 2 cents, hardly a reason to throw myself or any investor off the Brooklyn Bridge...what exactly is your interest in posting here? nickel62 (04/03/02; 08:28:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 72612) Well "Truthcaster" cat got your tongue? Feel free to respond if you care to continue. Or are you simply intested in making sure that the market gets your words of wisdom about the potential dangers of falling gold prices? nickel62 (04/03/02; 08:24:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 72611) YGM sorry to hear about the situation with your past mine..but glad to hear you are persavering... I got wacked at the other side of the business as an investor so I understand the situation quite well. Do you have any insite into the situation of the old Wolverine Discovery that was trumpeted by Aetna Reasources in late 1995 and then ended up being controlled by Archer Cathro who are big in the Dawson area if I recall correctly. There was some talk of refinancing that property through their Expatriate Resources but I have lost touch. Any rumors in your area? Thanks in advance and good luck. Welcome back. nickel62 (04/03/02; 08:18:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 72610) In actual fact truthcaster! Newmont is off less than a $1.00 per share as we speak trading at $27.59 off it's low which is a same because I was trying to buy more. AEM and Goldcorp are barely off their highs. The hedgers are down less then a percent and a half...Where exactly are you seeing this collapse? nickel62 (4/3/02; 08:15:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 72609) Panic of Truthcaster.. Yes that would be terrible if gold were to punch through $300! It would be almost a 2% drop certainly a reason to panic. Man thanks for sharing your insights about the downside potential.. Truthcaster (4/3/02; 07:55:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 72608) Gold's getting kicked Wow looking around at the gold mining stocksthey are really being taken to the woodshed.This all started yesterday with the gold stocks down from3% to 8% and then with gold falling today down 4.50 at 8:45am cdt we have seen all of this week and last week gainswiped out, with the big losses in glg, gold, cde, I hopethe 300 mark can hold if not look out below.. Truthcaster CoBra(too) (4/3/02; 07:54:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 72607) POG - over $300 - Hoping that the ceiling is turning out to be a new floor. More later - Best cb2@ Belgian: Hello, friend -seems youre interpreting our chinese friend Liu as I do. @ Nickel - You're more than welcome and re Betse Post - have heard same rumours too, though didn't have time to verify. BTW, YGM - good to see ya back - hope everything is going well with you!@ Lady Leigh - thanks for your kind message before Easter - hope you've had also a great one. YGM (4/3/02; 07:51:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 72606) Bull Mkt in AU...... Will prove itself if..... The buyers are laying in the weeds waiting to go again after the Cabal have driven the price backwards to the limit. We'll see what the buying strength and true demand is then. This fools game they play couldn't be any more perfect for those players with deep pockets like Soros or Buffet etc........YGM. YGM (4/3/02; 07:40:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 72605) Nickel 162 I gave up and went bankrupt due to low Gold prices for last 7 years and am returning to the Placer workings of Dawson area (better grade creeks than my previous undertakings)for the coming season on a wage and Gold sharing arrangement. No more shouldering of all the costs :))An old adage of Placer miners is that the best way to mine is w/ someone else's money....YGM.PS: Let the Cabal and Short crazies hammer Gold (ie: today's a good example of my last nites post) they will eventually find the anvil of physical offtake to much to bear. We still may be months away from that time IMHO....People buying paper Gold will not keep the price high. Only those taking delivery of Physical will do that. Again just my opinion.....YGM Henri (4/3/02; 07:33:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 72604) Whoa! Someone is trashing the POG in NY Spartacus (4/3/02; 07:17:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 72603) Inflationary Pressures http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APKsDlxX4VS5TLiBU New York, April 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries fell on concern inflation will accelerate as the economy rebounds from recession, dimming the allure of fixed-rate investments. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig last night said the economy is growing faster than expected, bolstering expectations the central bank will raise interest rate by midyear to curb faster inflation. ``The longer rates stay at this level, the greater the likelihood that credit to finance growth will accelerate, the money supply will accelerate and inflationary pressures will result in time,'' Hoenig said in a speech to a Kansas City economic forum. He is a non-voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, which convenes next on May 7. His comments differ from those of other Fed officials, including Robert McTeer, president of the Fed Bank of Dallas, who said last week he is ``in no hurry'' to raise rates. Both San Francisco and Philadelphia Fed Presidents Robert Parry and Anthony Santomero have said they expect inflation to remain under control. Spartacus (4/3/02; 07:17:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 72602) Inflationary Pressures http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APKsDlxX4VS5TLiBU New York, April 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries fell on concern inflation will accelerate as the economy rebounds from recession, dimming the allure of fixed-rate investments. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig last night said the economy is growing faster than expected, bolstering expectations the central bank will raise interest rate by midyear to curb faster inflation. ``The longer rates stay at this level, the greater the likelihood that credit to finance growth will accelerate, the money supply will accelerate and inflationary pressures will result in time,'' Hoenig said in a speech to a Kansas City economic forum. He is a non-voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, which convenes next on May 7. His comments differ from those of other Fed officials, including Robert McTeer, president of the Fed Bank of Dallas, who said last week he is ``in no hurry'' to raise rates. Both San Francisco and Philadelphia Fed Presidents Robert Parry and Anthony Santomero have said they expect inflation to remain under control. nickel62 (4/3/02; 07:15:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 72601) YGM I know you are an actual miner with many years of experience so I appreciate your comments. But if I am correct and I have been to the Goldstrike property five or six times with both Barrick and Newmont over the last ten years, the Betse Post deposit was one of the northernly parts of the gigantic open pit that used to be a mountain that was collectively called the Goldstrike Mine. It was located in the northern part of the property right near the property boarder with Newmont. What I interpreted happened is that the slope was too steep and collapsed a little sooner then expected and closed access to the underground, I assume from the bottom of the goldstrike open pit with the 70 million tonnes of waste falling from the sides of the open pit. If that is the case it might mean that the economics of getting to that portion of the underground deposit beneath the open pit is no longer viable economically. Newmont's underground is also under their deposit a few miles away and if I remember correctly the Deep Post deposit was a large deposit that was accessed via adits driven into the bottom of the open Goldstrik pit and it seems that was the access that was "lost" under the collapsed overburden from the pits collapse. With all of the forward hedging I wonder why no one has mentioned this before though if it was indeed true. There must be at least a few Nevada miners that lurk at this site or citizens of Elko Nevada that might have some accurate information on this situation. Thanks for your insight YGM, If I remember correctly you had a gold deposit with some high grade ore that was troubled by mud separation in the Yukon. Is there any chance that mine might be economic here again? Spartacus (4/3/02; 07:11:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 72600) Japan http://markets.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3X6RGJJZC&live=true&tagid=IXLTN37YICC&subheading=currencies%20&%20money Japan deflation unmoved by monetary base growth By Mariko Sanchanta.---Japan's monetary base surged in March by its largest monthly increase in 28 years, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday. The monetary base, a combination of bank reserves and money in circulation, rose 32.6 per cent year-on-year to Y87,150bn, and has risen consecutively for over a yearBanknotes in circulation increased by 14.6 per cent in March year-on-year, following a rise of 12.4 per cent in February. --- YGM (4/3/02; 07:02:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 72599) Nickel 162 burying 180,000 ozs of gold "forever" From a Goldminers viewpoint a couple things spring to mind.. Firstly, nothings buried forever! Not if the grades were high enough. Secondly, if it buried the part of the deposit that was being worked underground then a new adit is not that expensive to open. Remember they had to move alot of overburden in the first place to get to the Gold. Also all large Cap miners like ABX don't even mine small deposits like 180 K oz's. They usually sell off any property with less than 500 K oz's to a junior producer. All things considered it seems like either smoke and mirrors for whatever reason or media is making too much of it....FWIW....YGM. nickel62 (4/3/02; 06:41:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 72598) Please take note of GOldman news only let out last friday when no one was around....Very important...!!! Here is a sign that the manipulation is finally being recognized for what it is...Goldman did manage to get it released on Good Friday when the markets are closed...maybe we can help them get it publicized a little more broadly...too bad CNBC hasn't had a chance to mention this yet! Must be too busy touting GE 30 year bonds...Goldman May Be Charged Over Bond Trading, People Say (Update1)By Vicky StamasWashington, March 29 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has been notified that the Securities and Exchange Commission enforcement staff plans to pursue a case against the third-biggest securities firm for trading Treasury bonds based on inside information, a person familiar with the case said. The agency began investigating Goldman after a consultant the firm had hired gave traders advance warning Oct. 31 that the U.S. Treasury Department would stop selling 30-year bonds. The $3 trillion Treasury market rallied, with the 30-year bond having its biggest one-day gain in 14 years. The SEC notification, called a ``Wells notice,'' is one of the last steps before the agency's staff asks the commission to discipline a securities firm by filing a civil lawsuit or administrative proceeding. ``It means the staff has reached a conclusion, subject to your persuading them otherwise, that your client ought to be charged with some violation of the federal securities laws,'' said John Olson, senior partner at Gibson Dunn & Crutcher in Washington. A case against Goldman would be the first insider-trading bond case in memory, some lawyers said. ``I'm not certain I can recall a single case involving bonds, but there's absolutely no reason that a case could not involve bonds,'' said Joel Seligman, dean of the Washington University School of Law. ``It can involve any security.'' Lucas Van Praag, a Goldman spokesman in New York, declined to comment, as did SEC enforcement chief Stephen M. Cutler and Treasury spokeswoman Betsy Holahan. The consultant hired by Goldman, Peter Davis, president of Davis Capital Investment Ideas, had no comment. Davis also received a Wells notice, according to the person familiar with the case. Explaining a Surge Goldman spokesman Peter Dietlmaier said Nov. 12 that the firm was among the companies told of the Treasury's decision before the government announcement. The firm didn't engage in wrongful behavior and will assist authorities with an investigation, he said at the time. The firm, the third largest by capital, wouldn't comment then on whether its traders tried to benefit from the information by buying bonds before the government's announcement. Securities laws prohibit trading on non-public information. Davis said he told clients of the Treasury's decision to stop selling bonds, based on a press briefing he attended at 9 a.m. on Oct. 31, before the department made the announcement at 10 a.m. Government officials held the briefing, intended for reporters, on condition that the media not release the information until 10 a.m. The Treasury itself posted the news on its Web site at 9:43 a.m., 17 minutes before the embargo ended. The Davis leak helped explain a rise in prices that at the time dumbfounded traders and investors in the bond market, where $300 billion of securities trade daily. The benchmark Treasury bond price jumped from 102 1/2 at 9:30 a.m. New York time, when the meeting with the press ended, to 104 at 10 a.m. By contrast, between 9 a.m. and 9:30 a.m., the bond traded within a range of 1/8 point. Treasuries had fallen on an 8:30 a.m. report that showed U.S. growth in the third quarter exceeded expectations. Traders scaled back bets that the Federal Reserve would lower its target interest rate by half a percentage point. Buying soon overwhelmed those who were selling on the economic report. The rising bond price sent its yield down 9 basis points in the 12 minutes before 10 a.m. Falling Yields The price surge wreaked havoc among bond traders, many of whom were locked into bets that yields on 30-year bonds would rise relative to short-term debt, such as two-year notes, traders said. Instead, the bond buying shrank the two- to 30-year yield gap by 30 basis points in a few hours, marking the reversal of the strategy that had proven profitable for almost a year. By day's end, the Treasury's announcement had sparked the biggest one-day gain in 14 years, and pushed the yields to levels not seen since Russia's debt default and the collapse of hedge fund Long Term Capital Management in 1998. U.S. Treasury General Counsel David Aufhauser said in November that his agency would ask the SEC to investigate the matter. Davis said he also disclosed the Treasury's decision to Stone & McCarthy Research Associates and Capra Asset Management. Ray Stone, a managing partner of Stone & McCarthy, declined to comment. James Capra, president of Capra, didn't return a call. He chairs the Treasury Advisory Borrowing Committee, a group that advises the government on the mix of debt securities it sells. The group had recommended the elimination of the 30-year bond in January 2000, when surpluses were projected to continue growing. Traders hadn't expected the bond to be eliminated because a return to budget deficits meant an increased borrowing need. The SEC has authority to determine whether insider-trading laws have been violated. It can subpoena trading records to see if Wall Street firms were given advance notice of the Treasury's decision. nickel62 (4/3/02; 06:39:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 72597) Can anyone comment on this or on its factuality ....It is fairly significant I think...Bestse Post open pit mine was the wellspring that made American Barrick the financial behemouth that it became... The "Deep Post" high grade underground mine was located under the open pit mine but I only saw this information posted on Le Metropole Cafe website. Now I can't seem to locate it again..This is a quote from a mining executive's letter sent to Murphey and published there on the web site. "Do you find it interesting that recently Barricks Betze Open Pit in Nevada failed a little earlier than expected bringing down 70 Million tons of rock. Guess where it landed ? On top of the Deep Post underground mine, burying 180,000 ozs of gold forever. And my my not a word in the press. Why ? Because the failure was expected ? Maybe, but not the loss of the ounces in the Deep Post !!!!!!!!!!! Ounces that may be important to delivery into thier hedge ? This information came to me at an annual mine safety refresher class given by the State of Nevada ...." Grubstaker (4/3/02; 05:30:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 72596) the REST of the story. RE: usagold.com msg#: 72583) the REST if the story... 04/02 10:18U.S. to Tap Pension Funds to Avoid Hitting Debt Limit (Update1)By Simon KennedyWashington, April 2 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. will reach the limit of its authority to borrow money on April 4, forcing the Treasury Department to tap a $40 billion civil service retirement fund to prevent the government from defaulting on its debts, Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill said. In a letter to congressional leaders, O'Neill said their refusal to lift the mandated $5.95 trillion debt limit will force him to tap the Federal Retirement Thrift Savings Fund, also known as the G-Fund. Over the next 10 business days the government has obligations totaling $45 billion to $55 billion, including $27 billion in Social Security payments which it would be unable to meet without the maneuvering. Treasury will sell $46 billion in short-term cash management bills this week to cover those expenditures. By mid-April, a slew of income tax receipts will provide the government with fresh cash and end the need to juggle funds. In his letter, O'Neill said he would end use of the G-Fund ``on or about'' April 18. Congress has refused O'Neill's repeated requests to raise the limit by $750 billion, a move necessitated by additional spending for the war on terrorism, a drop in tax receipts brought on by the recession, and regularly increasing payments for Social Security benefits. ``We must continue working to enact an increase in the statutory debt limit as quickly as possible to avoid any negative repercussions at home or abroad,'' O'Neill wrote in his letter, which was released by the Treasury Department. Following Rubin's Lead Republicans in Congress want to maintain the limit as a check on spending. Democrats want to keep it so they can blame President George W. Bush's tax cuts for the government's inability to pay its debts. Congress is now in recess until April 8, and no action is expected for several weeks. In tapping the G-Fund, O'Neill is following the lead of former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin. The last time the government reached its borrowing limit, in 1995 and early 1996, Rubin reworked auction schedules, stopped selling savings bonds and manipulated government retirement accounts such as the G-Fund to find $139 billion and remain beneath the ceiling. The G-Fund was created in the early 1980s. Its assets are represented by a non-marketable government security with a one-day maturity. Each night, a new security paying the latest interest rates automatically replaces the maturing one. Beneficiaries Protected By suspending the nightly update or rollover, and leaving an IOU in place of the assets, O'Neill extinguishes debt, enabling Treasury to sell new notes or bills without threatening to breach the debt ceiling. ``G-Fund beneficiaries are full protected and will suffer no adverse consequences from this action'' because the money will be paid back in full once the debt limit is raised, O'Neill wrote. ``In short, the result on the G-Fund and its beneficiaries will be the same as if this temporary action had never taken place,'' he wrote. Treasury officials have also used regular auctions to buy time. The department's debt managers pared the size of 4-week bill auctions, cutting issuance to $19 billion from $23 billion. They also capped the amount of two-year notes sold in March at February's level of $25 billion. In a statement, Peter Fisher, Treasury undersecretary for domestic finance, said the department would take ``every prudent step'' to avoid breaching the debt limit. ``As we work with Congress to raise the limit going forward, we will do our utmost to avoid disruptions in our normal borrowing patterns,'' he said. The government sells securities to pay its bills while it waits for tax receipts to come in, and to pay the interest on existing debt. The first debt ceiling of $11.5 billion was introduced in 1917. It reached $1.1 trillion in 1981 and was last boosted, from $5.5 trillion, as part of a bipartisan balanced budget agreement in 1997. Few Repercussions While the 1995-1996 crisis injected volatility into the $3 trillion government security market, few analysts expect there to be any repercussions from O'Neill's moves. Treasury began to highlight its problem in December and signaled that it was considering copying Rubin's strategy, limiting the likelihood that the maneuvering will cause higher interest rates, analysts said. ``They made it clear early enough what they were thinking of doing so they'll not incur costs,'' said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson Associates Inc., a research firm. And unlike 1996, when Moody's Investors Service placed U.S. debt ``on review for possible downgrade,'' the creditworthiness of U.S. government debt is not in doubt now. ``It's still the top credit on the planet,'' said Sean Egan, managing director of Egan-Jones Ratings Co. in Wynnewood, Pennsylvania. ``Terrorist attacks didn't change that so neither will this.'' Political Fallout There are some risks. Foreign investors who don't understand the nuances of his actions could begin to ``question the credibility'' of the Treasury when it says it can back up its debt obligations, said Gerald Lucas, a government bond analyst with Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York. That could mean a rise in interest rates. ``There are methods to get around Congress, but when it's playing politics with the debt limit that leads to a risk premium on U.S. debt,'' he said. Rubin's actions in 1995 also brought threats of impeachment from Republicans in Congress. The worst O'Neill may face is criticism for touching retirement accounts at the same time as lawmakers are complaining about the impact of Enron Corp.'s collapse on its employees' pension funds, said Stephen Stanley, an economist at Greenwich Capital Markets Inc. in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``There may be political fallout because the Enron crisis has raised sensitivity toward retirement funds,'' he said. ``But that will be the only fallout.'' ***********************************************************For the record: I am personally fully invested in this US Government fund as a former civil service employee. This is not the first time the "G" fund has been used as a political football.This fund is safer than ANY US Treasury issue, period. It is a special issue US Treasury fund open ONLY to US Government employees, including US Senators and US Congressmen. "It is better to refrain from commenting when one does not know of which he speaks"Good Day, "G" man Black Blade (04/03/02; 03:29:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 72595) Businesses sing bottom-line blues http://www.msnbc.com/news/732418.asp Despite rebound, firms’ profit crunch haunts recovery Snippit:THAT’S BECAUSE THE mildness of the recession masked a ferocious corporate-profits crunch that has many chief executives still slashing jobs and other costs. If they continue, the cuts could slow the recovery. But the recession was one of the harshest in memory when measured by changes in profit levels. The Commerce Department said aftertax corporate profits declined 15.9 percent last year, one of the worst annual profit declines since World War II. Black Blade: And it's not getting any better. Profits (the real kind of profits) have failed to materialize in spite of the wildest Pro Forma accounting from the Arthur Andersen school of finance. The investing public now more than ever realize that the Emperor wears no clothes. Black Blade (04/03/02; 03:02:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 72594) Gold Rebounds http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=FOREX_XAUUSDO&v=i&w=1&t=l&a=1 Gold was under pressure in after hours, though now has recovered above the $305/oz. level (see graph). Meanwhile tensions in the Middle East are still a concern as street battles have broken out with several Palestinians taking sanctuary in a christian cathedral and another group in a christian convent. Israeli tanks have moved into Jenin and are about to move into some other West Bank towns for house to house searches and minor skirmishes. Iraq and Iran (at the behest of Iraq, the PA, and Hezbollah) both are now contemplating an Oil Embargo against the west. Combined they both can create shortages that would resemble the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo. It appears that this situation has a way to go yet. - Black Blade Topaz (04/03/02; 02:59:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 72593) nickel62 (4/2/02; 15:56:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 72552 Mr Liu certainly walks the path less tread eh? Great perspective - a little bit of the Oil "SPONGE" factor ( rising oil prices to sop up US$'s )we are witnessing - NOT to cause inflation but rather to attempt to control DEflation!! "Black Gold"..HA!....rather more like "Liquid Paper". Belgian (4/3/02; 02:47:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 72592) With (reserved) conviction ? With the help of Fibonacci on POG (LT) : When POG goes through 308$ (with two day closes) >>> GOLD is set FREE !NIA = No Investment Advise !CBII : The article by Henry C K Liu = Marvellously worded and the greatest encouragement for all those, not yet *Physically* into the yellow lifeboat. Thanks. Mr Gresham (4/3/02; 02:15:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 72591) nickel62, Pizz, Gauntlet-Runner2 nickel62, great post from Henry Liu, with lots of perspectives on the big picture as we may not have seen it yet. The move to US finance capitalism ahead of Chinese and others is a game-ending move, but not a winning one. "Resigns."Pizz -- good reminder to keep eyes on Wealth.GR2 -- great first post! A little bit of Harry Schultz, by way of Vonnegut & Joyce, eh? (Or is it Tom Robbins?) BTW, (ask R Powell for our old homies list), might your Gauntlet be Rt. 9, if your valley be the happy one? Golden Bear (4/3/02; 02:14:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 72590) Pippin (msg#: 72587) Greetings Pippin,Both you and BB are correct: inflation causes the value of each fiat unit to be worth less so you must pay more for the same goods than you did previously. During gradual inflation, many go into debt to purchase goods to be paid back later in devalued fiat.But at some point, the inflation begins to get out of hand - the bond market starts to demand higher interest rates to take on the risk of buying bonds, and this forces the central banks to raise rates to cool off the economy -> decreased consumer spending.Cheers. Topaz (4/3/02; 02:12:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 72589) Strad Master http://550.org.il/index.html The site goes around in circles a bit.....enjoy! Black Blade (4/3/02; 01:40:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 72588) Minister slams Japanese bureaucrats http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1906000/1906265.stm Snippit:Japan's finance minister has delivered a tongue-lashing both to his own officials and to Japan's biggest bank, Mizuho. In a near-unprecedented public tirade against both the bank and his own officials, Masajuro Shiokawa complained that the urgency of Japan's financial problems was not getting through to them. Black Blade: At least someone understands the dire situation surrounding insolvent Japanese banks and the crumbling Japanese economy. It appears that the Japanese government pension fund came into the market to give support to the Nikkei that fell off a cliff at the start though finished positive by +196 points at the end of the trading session. Pippin (4/3/02; 00:31:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 72587) Black Blade - your 72.585 <<But the increase is prompting some observers to question earlier assumptions on worldwide inflation. And if inflation levels are climbing, then doubts begin to arise about the future strength of consumer spending, especially in the United States, and about the vigor of the global economic recovery.>>Strange - I don't clearly understand this statement. I always believed that one had to own goods (and be in debts) in case in inflation rather than owning cash. Since product <A> will be more expensive in one month than today, I will buy it today and sell it in one month, even sometimes if I have to get in debts. So this is likely to accelerate the spending - not the opposite.What did I miss ? Strad Master (4/3/02; 00:24:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 72586) General Question Several months ago someone here posted up the URL for a peculiar web site that proclaimed that around this time there would be great turmoil in Israel and throughout the world. It was called something like "Zion Time". I only scanned it briefly, preferring to bookmark it and come back to it now, when the time was ripe. I do recall, though, that it had something to do with specific advice for Jews and non-Jews on surviving the crisis which they claimed was imminent, part of which involved tearing a dollar bill in half and sending half to them in Israel. Anyway, the bookmark I had for that site no longer seems to work. Considering recent events, I was curious to do a more comprehensive read of what they had predicted. Any information on where that site may have moved to if it still exists at all? Black Blade (4/3/02; 00:20:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 72585) Economic wild card: oil prices http://www.iht.com/articles/53290.html Snippit: If nerves are jittery right now in the Middle East, jitters likewise are rippling through the oil markets - and from there rattling perceptions about inflation and world economic growth. For now, the sharp jump in oil prices this year - and particularly in the last couple of weeks - isn't causing economists to race to their computers to recalculate global growth rates..But the increase is prompting some observers to question earlier assumptions on worldwide inflation. And if inflation levels are climbing, then doubts begin to arise about the future strength of consumer spending, especially in the United States, and about the vigor of the global economic recovery..With Iraq and Iran both threatening Tuesday to use a cutoff of their oil supplies as a weapon in support of the Palestinians, the Middle East looms large as a powerful catalyst - along with the recovering world economy - to higher oil prices..But the increase is prompting some observers to question earlier assumptions on worldwide inflation. And if inflation levels are climbing, then doubts begin to arise about the future strength of consumer spending, especially in the United States, and about the vigor of the global economic recovery. ViewYesterday's Discussion.
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.