 Centennial Precious Metals Gold coins & bullion since 1973 Denver, Colorado 80246-0009 We educate first-time investors! |
for quotes and purchase information.
|
ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/3/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
auspec
(11/3/01; 23:00:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 64636)
Br549
Most roads will lead to....................London.
The Invisible Hand
(11/3/01; 21:59:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 64635)
Still OT: More on Birmingham's, Britain's second city, bombing
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/uk/england/newsid_1636000/1636919.stm
I may have been too quick in
The Invisible Hand (11/3/01; 18:42:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 64632)
to link the bombing to bin Laden, but here's what Chief Inspector Ellie Bird, of West Midlands Police, said, after blaming some Irish nationalists: "It cannot and should not be connected with the incidents in America on 11 September."
Black Blade
(11/3/01; 19:13:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 64634)
Oil Price History - Yes ORO - Oil Crises!
Crude oil pricing is cyclical and often fluctuates with world events. There have been numerous attempts to manipulate and control petroleum prices. Since 1869 US crude oil prices adjusted for inflation have averaged $18.63 per barrel. Oil is critical to the US economy. Without oil the economy suffers and the result is economic turmoil as in 1973 and 1979. Every postwar recession has been preceded by an energy crisis. In the Pre Embargo Period of 1973 Crude Oil prices ranged between $2.50 and $3.00 from 1948 through the end of the 1960s.
The price of oil rose from $2.50 in 1948 to about $3.00 in 1957. When viewed in 1996 dollars an entirely different story emerges. In 1996 dollars crude oil prices fluctuated between $14 - $16 during the same period. The price increases apparently were just keeping up with inflation. From 1958 to 1970 prices were stable at about $3.00 per barrel, but in real terms the price of crude oil declined from above $15 to below $12 per barrel (again in 1996 adjusted dollars). The decline in the price of crude when adjusted for inflation was further exacerbated in 1971 and 1972 by the weakness of the US dollar.
A consortium or cartel was formed in 1960 with five founding oil producer members: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. OPEC (Oil Producing and Exporting Countries) was born! By the end of 1971 six other nations had joined the group: Qatar, Indonesia, Libya, United Arab Emirates, Algeria and Nigeria. These nations had experienced declining prices for their product. During the post war period petroleum exporting countries found that demand for their crude oil had increased and yet there was a 40% decline in the purchasing power of a barrel of crude.
In March 1971, the balance of power shifted. That month the Texas Railroad Commission set proration at 100 percent for the first time. This meant that Texas producers were no longer limited in the amount of oil that they could produce. I believe that FOA had touched on this long ago. This meant that US oil producers lost pricing control to OPEC.
Now the fun began. In 1973 the World saw the Yom Kippur War - Arab Oil Embargo take place. In 1972 the price of crude oil was about $3.00 and by the end of 1974 the price of oil had quadrupled to $12.00. The Yom Kippur War started with an attack on Israel by Syria and Egypt on October 5, 1973. The United States and many other countries had interfered in the politic of the Middle East and gave support to Israel. As a result of this support Arab exporting nations imposed an embargo on the nations supporting Israel (not merely a cut in production or embargo against the US as ORO asserts). Arab nations curtailed production by 5 million barrels per day (MMBPD) about 1 MMBPD was made up by increased production on other countries. The net loss of 4 MMBPD extended through March of 1974 and represented 7 percent of the free-world production. The US and other World producers were caught with their pants down around their ankles. They simply could not make up the shortfall and a bidding war erupted for available oil.
If there was any doubt that the ability to control crude oil prices had passed from the US to OPEC it was removed during the Arab Oil Embargo. The free market response sent petroleum up over 400 percent in six short months. Yes ORO, it was a shortage! From 1974 to 1978 crude oil prices increased at a moderate pace from $12 per barrel to $14 per barrel. When adjusted for inflation the prices were constant over this period of time. Remember now, since 1869 US crude oil prices adjusted for inflation have averaged $18.63 per barrel. Why the decline? There was incentive to explore and produce more oil - the Free Market is just funny that way.
Events in Iran and Iraq led to another round of crude oil price increases in 1979 and 1980. The Iranian revolution resulted in the loss of 2 to 2.5 million barrels of oil per day between November of 1978 and June of 1979. In 1980 Iraq's crude oil production fell 2.7 MMBPD and Iran's production by 600,000 barrels per day during the Iran/Iraq War. The combination of these two events resulted in crude oil prices more than doubling from $14 in 1978 to $35 per barrel in 1981. Yes ORO, this too was a shortage! After a time the price of oil retracted again. Gee Whiz! There's that Free Market response with more exploration and production catching up with demand. Funny how that works.
There were some other problems during this period as well. One was Dick Nixon's Oil Price Controls. The rapid increase in crude prices during this period would have been much less were it not for United States energy policy during the post Embargo period. The US imposed price controls on domestically produced oil in an attempt to lessen the impact of the 1973-74 price increase. The obvious result of the price controls was that U.S. consumers of crude oil paid 48 percent more for imports than domestic production.
In the short term the effects of the recession induced by the 1973-1974 crude oil price rise was less. However, it had other effects as well. In the absence of price controls U.S. exploration and production would certainly have been significantly greater. The higher prices faced by consumers would have resulted in lower rates of consumption. The United States would have been less dependent on imports in 1979-1980 and the price increase in response to Iranian and Iraqi supply interruptions would have been significantly less.
OPEC's has rarely been effective as a cartel. During the 1979-1980 period of rapidly increasing prices, Saudi Arabia's oil minister Ahmed Yamani repeatedly warned other members of OPEC that high prices would lead to a reduced demand. Higher prices eventually lead to more exploration and production offshore and greater conservation in the US. From 1982 to 1985 OPEC attempted to set production quotas low enough to stabilize prices. These attempts failed as several members of OPEC would cheat on their quotas and over produce. During most of this period Saudi Arabia acted as the swing producer cutting its production to stem the free falling prices. In August of 1985, the Saudis had enough and they punished the cheaters by linking their oil prices to the spot market for crude and by early 1986 increased production from 2 MMBPD to 5 MMBPD. Crude oil prices plummeted below $10 per barrel by mid year.
There was a spike in prices of crude oil in 1990 with the uncertainty associated Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the ensuing Gulf War, but following the war crude oil prices entered a steady decline until in 1994 inflation adjusted prices attained their lowest level since 1973. Eventually with a strong US economy and increased Third World demand prices recovered into 1997 In December, OPEC increased its quotas 10 percent to 27.5 MMBPD but the rapid growth in Asian economies had come to a screeching halt - the Asian Contagion.
More recently the US experienced another energy crisis as the increase in demand, much of it due to the booming High Technology boom and heightened economic activity. The problem of course was that no one thought about increasing petroleum production to match the increased demand. The energy grid is toast, there were not enough power generating facilities, not enough pipeline capacity, not enough drill rigs to match increasing demand, misguided environmental ideals, and NIMBY. Add in the occasional drought reducing hydroelectric power and the result is a power shortage - oops! There's that word again. Yes ORO a shortage of available energy. Another "Energy Crisis."
- Black Blade
Elwood
(11/3/01; 18:53:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 64633)
***** Best of the Gold Trail. . . MSG # 113 *******
Why?
This one, in a nutshell, beautifully summarizes 30+ years of gold thinking and history. It then gives a cogent view of the current and the dynamics that will shape the near future for gold. It's out there, weighing on us, like a tonne of yellow metal.
The Invisible Hand
(11/3/01; 18:42:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 64632)
Off topic: bin Laden is back
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/uk/england/newsid_1636000/1636919.stm
Sunday, 4 November, 2001, 01:25 GMT
'Serious explosion' in Birmingham
There has been a "serious explosion" in a car in a city centre street, police said.
Police were called to Smallbrook in Kingsway, Birmingham, after the car exploded at 2230 GMT on Saturday.
The incident happened close to the city's main New Street railway station.
No-one was injured and police inquiries are under way.
More soon.
Canuck
(11/3/01; 17:54:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 64631)
(No Subject)
auspec,
Thanks for the extra bond notes. (+3% on Friday!!)
From Trail Guide:
"Sir Douglas; aka FOA"
A hint as the end draws near!!!!
BR549
(11/3/01; 17:16:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 64630)
The #1 CB Manipulator in the World: BoE! The Bank's of England's second core purpose is to maintain the stability of the financial system
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/Links/setframe.html
"The Bank's second core purpose is to maintain the stability of the financial system, both domestic and international.
BR-So what's it's first purpose—I know to protect the member banksters just like all of the other CB's, except they do more manipulations than any of the the other CB's.
"The Bank seeks to achieve through monitoring developments in the financial system both at home and abroad, including the links between individual institutions and between financial markets; and through analysing the health of the domestic and international economy; through close co-operation with financial supervisors both domestically and internationally; and through promoting sound financial infrastructure, including efficient payment and settlement arrangements."
BR-The BoE interest rate still hovers at 5% with all of the inflation and unemployment symptomatic of the struggling world economy. It is obvious that the BoE does not think that interest rates have anything to do with their sagging economy as the rumor is they may raise to 5.25%.
Most of their report has to do with problems within the U.S. (there is nothing wrong with the U.K. of course) and little to do with Gold.
The UK has been one of the sellers of physical Gold in order to keep Gold volatility in line.
"Their official goals are:
stability of the monetary system
financial system infrastructure
broad overview of the system as a whole
being able in exceptional circumstances to undertake
official financial operations (BR-Manipulate for their benefit)the efficiency and effectiveness of the financial sector, with particular regard to international competitiveness."
BR-As far as derivative activities, the UK leads the race:
Average daily turnover in OTC currency and interest rate derivatives was $275bn, 61% higher than the $171bn recorded by the previous survey in April 1998.
This was driven by an increase in OTC interest rate swap business, and reflects the increasing importance of swaps as a trading and pricing benchmark.
According to the BIS statistics the UK's Bank of England handles more derivatives than any other country some $504BB per day.Their balance sheet shows assets of 812,179 Euros MM with Liabilities of 802,196: a very thin surplus with SWAPS occupying over 60% of the total risk.
My, my—And to think that somehow these manipulators will find someway to blame the Fed for these derivative investments. Could it be possible that the BoE has decided to hedge their bets because of carrying a higher than normal risk in their system?
Their link to the latest BIS statistics shows little change since I posted their #1 derivative ranking over a month ago.
In reference to Gold holdings, the BoE has reduced their assets from $1,021MM have been reduced to $839MM in the last year.
(source) http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/mfsd/ms/011029/tabd5.1_5.2.xls
"Bank of England holdings of foreign currency and gold are marked to market using end-period market prices and exchange rates."
This seems an awfully low figure for such a major country. But I think that it is safe to say, that the BoE does not have more use for the metal than any other CB. But they sure know how to gamble on derivatives.
BR549
ORO
(11/3/01; 16:33:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 64629)
Trail readers - ECB structural problems
For any who consider seriously FOA's remarks that "political will trumps economic theory every time", understand that it is the sound of frustration in the mouths of politicians who's actions backfired and not produced the desired loot for them and their cronies. I guess tha FOA could not come to terms with Mises' theory because it tells him that either his people act fairly and fail, or act as imperial thieves and thugs, to achieve just a fraction of their hoped for payout. If he read Mises of late, he would have noticed that the ECB already made too many mistakes and has not positioned itself to become what FOA claimed it wants to be. The structurally hobbled EMU finance system, hobbled by the dominance of banking institutions maintaining market share by undercutting market interest rates, will not allow the ECB as much lattitude as the Fed has.
Perhaps some of the political agenda that could make possible a selective drop in US dollar values without affecting the euro will materialize - like taxes on gold mining - capital controls, etc.. Perhaps Congress will manage to damage corporate profitability as thoroughly as the European Parliament and member governments have done already. If they do, then the credit quality and value of much of the US financial markets would evaporate, along with dollar demand, but these damaging legislations have not yet come to pass.
In controling price inflation, it is imperative to allow the market to lower the purchasing power of financial assets as a whole when output falls during a recession. In a bank dominated financial system, the bulk of financial assets are fixed denomination balances at banks, thus the only way to lower the purchasing power of financial assets is to either lower the value of the monetary unit (release pent up price inflation) or have banks go into default without government bailing out the depositors. The US financial system is more stable due to the floating value of financial assets (bonds, commercial paper, equities make up 80% of US financial assets) which simply fall when recession comes, as risk premiums on commercial/consumer debt and on equities rise substantially, lowering their monetary value and thus the purchasing power of financial assets. Europe, where only recently the stock market rose to high enough a level so as to lower bank's share of financial assets from over 55% (compared to under 20% in the US) to 45%, will necessarily deflate with more violence than the floating value market in the US.
Having inflated the euro monetary base for years without having substantial debt demand to balance it, why does anyone think that creating deflationary conditions in Europe would actually help the ECB control prices? If the US structural income balance of payments deficit was so bad, why should the same imbalance with the EMU, but on a greater scale actually get the euro any more respect than it would the dollar?
ORO
(11/3/01; 16:24:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 64628)
Black Blade - Oil non-crisis
http://www.yardeni.com/public/shoild_c.pdf
The main reason for the initial oil crisis was not the 3% cut back in production, though it had a significant effect in bringing us a little up the supply demand curve. The main reason was, as our dear Gilded opinion writer Antal Fekete noted: monetary. People were hoarding. They borrowed dollars, bought "stuff" with it, and did not consume it. They bought it in a panic thinking that there would never be more. The media were flooded with Malthusian projections of a booming demand and declining supply.
Not since the Nazis has a propaganda campaign been so successful. During this time, EXCESS monetary supply of dollars and the elimination of the gold exchange tether on it went up to levels of 4% (up to and monetary Excess of 10% of GDP) and more, on top of the decades of the 40s through the 60s when the war debt was monetized. As I had explained here for some 2 years, fiat debt money loses value by dilution when it expands in volume outstanding, and loses value during falls in volumes because of debt defaults eliminating the demand for the existing monetary base (for debt payments). This condition of monetary expansion drives the phenomenon of the "crack up boom" of hoarding, and the general rise in prices: the accelerating decline of the purchasing power of the monetary unit denominating the debt.
In the URL above, on pg 16 we see that global oil output rose from about 51-2 mil bbl per day in 75 to peak at 64 mil bbl in 1980. The bulk of the rise in output occurred in 1976. Does anyone with a claim on sanity suggest that the world learned how to consume 10 mil bbl/day more oil in all of a single year? or had it more to do with a response to the money printing rampage of the US gov (including the Fed) that increased the debt creation rate from single to double digits and caused hoarding?
Some claim that the oil consumption spike then was a rebound from reduced oil consumption following the 1974 production cuts, yet non OPEC oil production had already started up (page 17 at the URL above) and oil prices had already gone up before that (in line with general prices), and rose only to the point of matching some (not all) of the rise in the other main energy source of the time, coal, which is much easier to accumulate.
To further indicate that the initial "oil shock" was merely a monetary issue, we should consider that after the 1976 rise in output (most of the extra rise accumulated), oil output and consumption did not rise much till after the Shah's fall, when sheer panic ensued. Aristottle captured the hoarding that went on during that time very well. Enough hoarding so that needed oil output at the bottom of the next recession in 1982 was under 49 mil. bbl per day, even lower than it was at the start of the "crisis", and did not reach back to the peak levels of 76-79 till 1995.
Had there actually been an oil crisis rather than a monetary crisis, then one would have expected oil prices to remain high relative to other things over time, they did not. Hence, the crisis was artificial from a structural economic point of view, and was essentially a monetary driven hoarding and a politically motivated panic. For an example of an actual shock, look at natural gas. The price reaction to the shortage (largely a creation of California's pricing and regulatory scheme) and the reaction to the prices was much healthier than anything we saw in the 70s, though the scale of the price rise in nat gas was equal to the whole of the 1970s "oil crisis".
So much for "political will".
Pandagold
(11/3/01; 16:02:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 64627)
Live and let live "Oh what a lovely war"
Another two US planes shot down, and this time 50 US troops dead claim the Taliban. Of course America denies it but say they lost a chopper.
Lies and counter lies.. guess we just have to go somewhere between, multiply by two and divide by three, then square it.
I pass the following on because I have the feeling not all is shown on US TV.
Our 'man (BBC)in Afghanistan was giving his daily bulletin from the Northern Alliance position right at the front line.
You could see the Taliban front line just a few yards away almost near enough to shout to each other, but they use their mobile phones to talk to each other, which they do continually.
Our man gave a translation of what the Alliance fighter was telling him. He was pointing out a man in a white coat, or whatever, and said that he was the main commander for the area.
The man was walking around quite openly. The Alliance fighter said 'We could shoot him easily,(which had ocurred to me the moment I saw him) but we have a rule of live and let live - 'live and let live'???
Well, if you are wondering what sort of a war this is, I don't blame you. I don't think anyone knows. Both sides Afghans) are laughing their heads off. Only the Americans have serious faces. (And if I were a US soldier, I would have a serious face too. That friendly face who smiles at you because you think he is a 'friendly' on your side, could be tipping off the other side of your movements)
Mr Gresham
(11/3/01; 15:57:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 64626)
Panda, MAD
http://216.46.231.211/credit.htm
"Want to see where He lives? Just follow the Yellow Brick Road" Of course, as the merry parade heads off to follow the Wizard's coattails, some of us lag bashfully behind until the parade is out of sight, and start to edge on over to see what those Yellow Bricks are made of, and consider just how many of them we can pick up, and cart home.
Mostly through Noland's piece, and following FOA's "buy all debt" posting last night, I'm guessing that M.A.D. will no longer be Mutually Assured Destruction, but "Monetize All Debt."
However, as always, it will be Who You Know, as to whether your debt gets bought. It's always been that with the Third World sovereign loans gone bad, Citi or whoever has their In at Treasury. These partnerships of Big Lender and Big Borrower (in our homeland, are they really different parties?) always lobby to get the money out of the naive "guy behind the tree."
Come to think of it, homeowners now better start organizing "Home Protection Lobbies" or the like, with some kind of permitted write-down of mortgage balances as the goal.
I've always preferred the mortgage tax deduction be a 15% credit instead. Gov could make it refundable to help out with payments, and equalize the benefit across the board.
Pandagold
(11/3/01; 15:36:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 64625)
Usul the poet
Do I get a starter for ten - no conferring?
OK, it was "Up Pompei!
Yes, I recognised the first verse,and, I thought it was Gray's poem at first then,I thought ..strange...
I read much of Gray and can still recite his Elegy in a Country Churchyard........."The curfew tolls the knell of parting day.............. Won't bore the none Brits with the rest.
Keep smiling, and if the the world gets depressing, read some poetry ( and you'll probably get more depressed if you read the wrong ones)
Flatlander
(11/3/01; 15:33:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 64624)
The Gold Trail Disscussion
Thank you "Sir Douglas" for your "guidance" in things golden. Please keep up the good work.
Black Blade
(11/3/01; 14:52:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 64623)
Tales From The "Bone Pile"
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/011103/economy_faces_of_unemployment_1.html
Jobless Workers Struggle to Get by
Snippit:
Diane Powell, of Palo Alto, Calif., says she's also been working steadily to find a job since she lost her position as an analyst at Hewlett Packard in late August. A generous severance package, including sessions at a career center has eased the way. Since she's free of debt, Powell figures that with the $230 weekly unemployment checks, she can make it until February without a job. ``I hope I can find a job before the next wave gets laid off,'' she said. ``It's going to be hard. It's getting kind of scary.''
Black Blade: These are just a few tales of those nonessential "Bones" to be flung upon the "Bone Pile." It is going to get much worse and corporate earnings fall and companies get desperate to shed overpaid employees hired during the "Go-Go 1990's Tech and Dot.Com booms. Now we see the rank and file of the US workforce cast aside as the economy begins to crash. In a word - "GRIM"
Gold Trail Update
(11/3/01; 14:39:17MDT - Msg ID:64622)
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
Black Blade
(11/3/01; 14:34:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 64621)
Economy braces for hard landing
http://inq.philly.com/content/inquirer/2001/11/02/business/CASS02.htm
Snippit:
t was, the statisticians tell us, the longest period of uninterrupted economic growth in recorded American history. And now it's just that, history.
Nevertheless, the consensus among academic and corporate economists is pretty clear: The economy has tanked. Business investment, consumer spending and job growth are all falling. Retrenchment will be the theme for the duration of 2001, and probably into the spring of 2002 if not longer.
Black Blade: In a word - "GRIM"
Usul
(11/03/01; 14:30:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 64620)
@Pandagold re Ode to Gold
http://www.hn.psu.edu/Faculty/KKemmerer/poets/gray/cat.htm
I am indeed the poet- except for the introductory verse, which was accordingly in quotes, and as it states it is a quotation from Thomas Gray (1716-1771) - see link for full details.
Your suggestion ("that the last two words of the third line of the last verse could be replaced by the single but two syllable word 'unfold'") sounds good to me.
And here is a weekend brain teaser for you.
Which TV comedy series of the 1970's included a character called "Nausius" who was particularly fond of writing odes?
(A clue- Frankie Howerd was in it)
Regards- and herewith the modified version:
Ode to Gold
"From hence, ye beauties, undeceived,
Know, one false step is ne'er retrieved,
And be with caution bold.
Not all that tempts your wandering eyes
And heedless hearts is lawful prize;
Nor all that glisters gold."
Thus spoke Thomas Gray
About a cat that lost its way
In seeking piscine gold
But some men, oh and women too
Seek by paper profits to pursue
And heed not of risk, when they are told
Some brilliant types wrote a formula of power
Then built a financial Babel Tower
Its value derived from paper
They called their enterprise LTCM
But soon the banks had to help them
Or "pffft!" see all turn to vapor
There is a simple "fact" that many "know"
By owning paper promises they think their worth will grow
Meanwhile more debts unfold
Ignoring recession, layoffs, no profits, war threat
Now listen: Gold is gold and no-one's debt
And that's all that should be told
Black Blade
(11/3/01; 14:00:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 64619)
Deep Into 'Recession' - It's Already Fall, Analysts Say, and Economic Winter Is Around the Corner
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A32679-2001Nov2.html
Snippit:
Now that nearly all economists agree the U.S. economy is in recession, some have moved on to debate where we are in the process. In Churchillian terms, things have probably gone beyond the end of the beginning. Many now believe a recession started during the summer, if not before.
But it's too early to declare this the beginning of the end. The key indicators -- employment, production, profits, incomes - are not only falling, but falling faster than before. Simply put, Americans are now likely in the stomach-churning, confidence-busting, penny-pinching middle of what may turn into the deepest recession in 20 years.
Also indicating a longer, deeper recession in the United States is the fact that economies are also weak almost everywhere else in the world -- the first such simultaneous downturn in nearly 30 years.
Black Blade: This recession will be a long term affair. Silver bugs Warren Buffett and George Soros also seem convinced. I don't see any positive data to even hint at an economic recovery. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Get out of debt, have enough cash for expenses for several months, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, be very "picky" with any new investments, get started on a storage program for food and basic necessities, and hang on for the ride. At the very least you will sleep better at night. We live in "Interesting Times."
Black Blade
(11/3/01; 13:47:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 64618)
The Developing U.S. Recession and Guidelines for Policy
http://www.levy.org/docs/stratan/recess.html
Snippit:
The United States should now be prepared for one of the deepest and most intractable recessions of the post-World War II period, with no natural process of recovery in prospect unless a large and complex reorientation of policy occurs both here and in the rest of the world. The grounds for reaching this somber conclusion are that very large structural imbalances, with unique characteristics, have been allowed to develop. These imbalances were always bound to unravel at some stage, and it now looks as though the unraveling is well under way. There may be no spontaneous recovery because the unraveling that has started is a reversion toward what, in the relevant sense, is a normal situation. This consideration leads us to take issue with some distinguished commentators, such as Alan Blinder (2001) and Laura Tyson (2001), who apparently assume that because a spontaneous recovery will occur relatively soon, any fiscal relaxation should be temporary. The general predicament is made worse by a deteriorating world economy; U.S. exports fell sharply in the first seven months of 2001, when the balance of payments was already heavily in deficit.
Black Blade: It does not look good. The fundamentals are deteriorating and that portends a "grim" future.
Pandagold
(11/3/01; 13:22:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 64617)
The age of Wizardry (variation on a theme)
Don't panic, don't worry, don't even be concerned if you hear this or that is about to run out, or this or that country is about to default, or this or that company is going into liquidation and thousands will lose their jobs.
Why? This is the age of Wizardry and America is the home of the Grand Wizard himself. They are re-laying the road to the Fed, you won't miss it, it's to be paved with yellow bricks.
With his magic wand 'he' (should I spell 'he' with a capital out of reverence?) need only tap the ground, and oil will flow ( to keep the price down). He can touch a stone and it will turn to gold (to keep the price down). He can touch toilet paper and it can become a million dollars - in fact millions, and millions of dollars
How do I know? Because I see his magic everyday. It's a fantastic magical world. No need to go to Disneyland, or Disneyworld (no wonder their shares are down) we have the Magic Kingdom in the whole of America.
Just think of it. America already the world's biggest debtor nation embarks on a military escapade costing millions of dollars a day ( probably a minute), and the dollar rises. The world economy is heading for what should be the greatest depression ever - according to sound economic theory - but the financial markets rise, and rise, and rise.
Yes, I have become a believer. Can't wait for the next Harry Potter book to come out, I want to learn all I can about wizardry - it's the present and the future.
Hail to the Grand Wizard, long may He reign
Want to see where He lives? Just follow the Yellow Brick Road
Black Blade
(11/3/01; 13:16:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 64616)
Pete - RE: McDonald Interview and Oil
I don't see any real contradiction with what James McDonald had to say. The point is that there is a lot of oil but at what price? McDonald said that new projects have come online as the POO rises because these projects become economic. He cites the North Sea as an example and ultra-deep water in the Gulf of Mexico as another. I agree with that assessment. He also describes the Athabasca Tar Sands in BC, and the Orinoco Belt sludges (also known as the "faja").
The first thing that one must remember is that the problem is not how much oil is left, but rather how much oil is recoverable, and more importantly, how much is economically recoverable. Secondly, what is perhaps more important is what happens when production no longer increases or worse, tapers off, while demand increases. Thirdly, the question arises whether or not non-conventional oil, alternative energy sources, new technology, and energy conservation measures can make up for the dwindling conventional oil reserves.
I do find it interesting that McDonald does not include Saudi as an Arab member of OPEC for purposes of the discussion. Nevertheless, it was only a 3% decrease in oil supply during the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo that resulted in long gas lines, 55 MPH speed limits, and darkened cities. In 1979 the Iranian Revolution resulted in threatened oil supply and we got to see Jimmy Carter huddled around the fireplace wearing a Cardigan sweater as he addressed the nation about the problems we were facing at the time. Those were "Interesting Times."
Of course if there were a disruption to Arab oil supply we would still see rising POO in the US. In other parts of the world there would be a bidding war for oil - including our oil. Oil companies are businesses - not charities - and they will sell to the highest bidder just as they did in 1973 and 1979. During those times oil tankers from the ME reversed course with full loads toward Europe because the bidding in Amsterdam raised the POO in Europe higher than the US.
As far as are we running out of oil? Not at all. We are running short on "Cheap Oil" and therefore we will see development of previously uneconomic areas and unconventional sources as the POO rises. The Hubbert Peak model still holds. There have been no large "Super-Giant" discoveries in about 30 years. The Caspian Sea discovery appears to be much smaller than expected. Chevron has recently reported that they have encountered several "dry holes." A rising POO will put pressure on the global economy and also act as a cap to any economic recovery until more sources of "cheap Energy" are developed. Once again we live in "Interesting Times." We can always hope that we will squeak by or even better discover some source of "cheap" and abundant energy.
Cheers!
- Black Blade
jb
(11/3/01; 13:04:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 64615)
rep ron paul
best speech iread from a usa congress man in years and "hit the nail on the head".he is 100% correct.
Statement By Rep Ron Paul, US House Of Representatives
10-27-01
Mr. Speaker, it breaks my heart to see what is happening to our country today. All Americans have grieved over the
losses served on 9-11. The grief for those who lost loved ones is beyond description. These losses have precipitated
unprecedented giving to help the families left behind. Unless one has suffered directly, it is difficult to fully comprehend
the tragic and sudden loss of close friends and family.
There are some who, in addition to feeling this huge sense of personal loss that all Americans share, grieve for other
serious and profound reasons. For instance, many thoughtful Americans are convinced that the tragedy of 9-11 was
preventable. Since that may well be true, this provokes a tragic sadness, especially for those who understand how the
events of 9-11 needlessly came about.
The reason why this is so sad and should be thoroughly understood is that so often the ones who suggest how our
policies may have played a role in evoking the attacks are demonized as unpatriotic and are harshly dismissed as
belonging to the ``blame America crowd.''
Those who are so anxious to condemn do not realize that the policies of the American Government, designed by
politicians and bureaucrats, are not always synonymous with American ideals. The country is not the same as the
Government. The spirit of America is hardly something for which the Government holds a monopoly on defining.
America's heart and soul is more embedded in our love of liberty, self-reliance, and tolerance than by our foreign policy,
driven by powerful special interests with little regard for the Constitution. Throughout our early history, a policy of
minding our own business and avoiding entangling alliances, as George Washington admonished, was more
representative of American ideals than those we have pursued for the past 50 years. Some sincere Americans have
suggested that our modern interventionist policy set the stage for the attacks of 9-11, and for this, they are condemned
as being unpatriotic.
This compounds the sadness and heartbreak that some Americans are feeling. Threats, loss of jobs, censorship and
public mockery have been heaped upon those who have made this suggestion. Freedom of expression and thought, the
bedrock of the American Republic, is now too often condemned as something viciously evil. This should cause
freedom-loving Americans to weep from broken hearts.
Another reason the hearts of many Americans are heavy with grief is because they dread what might come from the
many new and broad powers the Government is demanding in the name of providing security. Daniel Webster once
warned, ``Human beings will generally exercise power when they can get it, and they will exercise it most undoubtedly
in popular governments under pretense of public safety.'' A strong case can be made that the Government regulations,
along with a lack of private property responsibility, contributed to this tragedy, but what is proposed? More regulations
and even a takeover of all airport security by the Government.
We are not even considering restoring the rights of pilots to carry weapons for self-defense as one of the solutions.
Even though pilots once carried guns to protect the mail and armored truck drivers can still carry guns to protect
money, protecting passengers with guns is prohibited on commercial flights. The U.S. Air Force can shoot down a
wayward aircraft, but a pilot cannot shoot down an armed terrorist. It will be difficult to solve our problems with this
attitude toward airport security.
Civil liberties are sure to suffer under today's tensions, with the people demanding that the politicians do something,
anything. Should those who object to the rapid move toward massively increasing the size and scope of the Federal
Government in local law enforcement be considered un-American because they defend the principles they truly
understand to be American?
Any talk of spending restraint is now a thing of the past. We had one anthrax death, and we are asked the next day for a
billion dollar appropriations to deal with the problem.
And a lot more will be appropriated before it is all over. What about the 40,000 deaths per year on government-run
highways and the needless deaths associated with the foolish and misdirected war on drugs? Why should anyone be
criticized for trying to put this in proper perspective?
Countless groups are now descending on Washington with their Hands out. As usual, as with any disaster, this disaster
is being parlayed into an opportunity, as one former Member of the Congress phrased it. The economic crisis that
started a long time before 9-11 has contributed to the number of those now demanding Federal handouts.
But there is one business that we need not fear will go into a slump: The Washington lobbying industry. Last year, it
spent $1.6 billion lobbying Congress. This year, it will spend much more. The bigger the disaster, the greater the
number of vultures who descend on Washington. When I see this happening, it breaks my heart, because liberty and
America suffers, and it is all done in the name of justice, equality and security.
Emotions are running high in our Nation's capital, and in politics emotions are more powerful tools than reason and the
rule of law. The use of force to serve special interests and help anyone who claims to be in need unfortunately is an
acceptable practice. Obeying the restraints placed in the Constitution is seen as archaic and insensitive to the people's
needs. But far too often the claims of responding to human tragedies are nothing more than politics as usual. While one
group supports bailing out the corporations, another wants to prop up wages and jobs. One group supports
federalizing tens of thousands of airport jobs to increase union membership, while another says we should subsidize
corporate interests and keep the jobs private.
Envy and power drives both sides, the special interests of big business and the demands of the welfare redistributionists.
There are many other reasons to make one sad with all that is Going on today. In spite of the fact that our government
has done such a poor job protecting us and has no intention of changing the policy of meddling overseas, which has
contributed to our problems, the people are more dependent on and more satisfied with government than they have
been in decades, while demanding even more government control and intrusion in their daily lives.
It is aggravating to listen to the daily rhetoric regarding liberty and the Constitution while the same people participate in
their destruction. It is aggravating to see all the money spent and civil liberties abused while the pilot's right to carry
guns in self-defense is denied. It is even more aggravating to see our government rely on foreign AWACS aircraft to
provide security to U.S. territory. A $325 billion military budget, and we cannot even patrol our own shores. This, of
course, is just another sign of how little we are concerned about U.S. sovereignty and how willing we are to submit to
international government.
It is certainly disappointing that our congressional leaders and administration have not considered using letters of
marque and reprisal as an additional tool to root out those who participated in the 9-11 attacks. The difficulty in finding
bin Laden and his supporters make marque and reprisal quite an appropriate option in this effort.
We already hear of plans to install and guarantee the next government of Afghanistan. Getting bin Laden and his gang is
one thing, nation-building is quite another. Some of our trouble in the Middle East started years ago when our CIA put
the Shah in charge of Iran.
It was 25 years before he was overthrown, and the hatred toward America continues to this day. Those who suffer from
our intervention have long memories.
Our support for the less than ethical government of Saudi Arabia, with our troops occupying what most Muslims
consider sacred land, is hardly the way to bring peace to the Middle East. A policy driven by our fear of losing control
over the oil fields in the Middle East has not contributed to American Security. Too many powerful special interests
drive our policy in this region, and this does little to help us preserve security for Americans here at home.
As we bomb Afghanistan, we continue to send foreign aid to feed the people suffering from the war. I strongly doubt if
our food will get them to love us or even be our friends. There is no evidence that the starving receive the food. And
too often it is revealed that it ends up in the hands of the military forces we are fighting. While we bomb Afghanistan and
feed the victims, we lay plans to install the next government and pay for rebuilding the country. Quite possibly, the new
faction we support will be no more trustworthy than the Taliban, to which we sent plenty of aid and weapons in the
1980s. That intervention in Afghanistan did not do much to win reliable friends in the region.
It just may be that Afghanistan would be best managed by several tribal factions, without any strong centralized
government and without any outside influence, certainly not by the U.N. But then again, some claim that the proposed
Western financed pipeline through northern Afghanistan can only happen after a strong centralized pro-Western
government is put in place.
It is both annoying and sad that there is so little interest by anyone in Washington in free market solutions to the world's
economic problems. True private ownership of property without regulation and abusive taxation is a thing of the past.
Few understand how the Federal Reserve monetary policy causes the booms and the busts that, when severe, as now,
only serve to enhance the prestige of the money managers while most politicians and Wall Streeters demand that the
Fed inflate the currency at an even more rapid rate. Today's conditions give license to the politicians to spend our way
out of recession, they hope.
One thing for sure, as a consequence of the recession and the 9-11 tragedy, is that big spending and deficits are alive
and well. Even though we are currently adding to the national debt at the rate of $150 billion per year, most politicians
still claim that Social Security is sound and has not been touched. At least the majority of American citizens are now
wise enough to know better.
There is plenty of reason to feel heartbroken over current events. It is certainly not a surprise or illogical for people
working in Washington to overreact to the anthrax scare. The feelings of despondency are understandable, whether due
to the loss of lives, loss of property, fear of the next attack, or concerned at our own frantic efforts to enhance security
will achieve little. But broken or sad hearts need not break our spirits nor impede our reasoning.
I happen to believe that winning this battle against the current crop of terrorists is quite achievable in a relatively short
period of time. But winning the war over the long term is a much different situation. This cannot be achieved without a
better understanding of the enemy and the geopolitics that drive this war. Even if relative peace is achieved with a battle
victory over Osama bin Laden and his followers, other terrorists will appear from all corners of the world for an
indefinite period of time if we do not understand the issues.
Changing our current foreign policy with wise diplomacy is crucial if we are to really win the war and restore the sense
of tranquility to our land that now seems to be so far in our distant past. Our widespread efforts of peacekeeping and
nation-building will only contribute to the resentment that drives the fanatics. Devotion to internationalism and a
one-world government only exacerbates regional rivalries. Denying that our economic interests drive so much of what
the West does against the East impedes any efforts to diffuse the world crisis that already has a number of Americans
demanding nuclear bombs to be used to achieve victory. A victory based on this type of aggressive policy would be a
hollow victory indeed.
I would like to draw analogy between the drug war and the war against terrorism. In the last 30 years, we have spent
hundreds of billions of dollars on a failed war on drugs. This war has been used as an excuse to attack our liberties and
privacy. It has been an excuse to undermine our financial privacy while promoting illegal searches and seizures with
many innocent people losing their lives and property. Seizure and forfeiture have harmed a great number of innocent
American citizens.
Another result of this unwise war has been the corruption of many law enforcement officials. It is well known that with
the profit incentives so high, we are not even able to keep drugs out of our armed prisons. Making our whole society a
prison would not bring success to this floundering war on drugs. Sinister motives of the profiteers and gangsters, along
with prevailing public ignorance, keeps this futile war going.
Illegal and artificially high priced drugs drive the underworld to produce, sell and profit from this social depravity. Failure
to recognize that drug addiction, like alcoholism, is a disease rather than a crime, encourage the drug warriors in efforts
that have not and will not ever work. We learned the hard way about alcohol prohibition and crime, but we have not yet
seriously considered it in the ongoing drug war.
Corruption associated with the drug dealers is endless. It has involved our police, the military, border guards and the
judicial system. It has affected government policy and our own CIA. The artificially high profits from illegal drugs
provide easy access to funds for rogue groups involved in fighting civil wars throughout the world.
Ironically, opium sales by the Taliban and artificially high prices helped to finance their war against us. In spite of the
incongruity, we rewarded the Taliban this spring with a huge cash payment for promises to eradicate some poppy fields.
Sure.
For the first 140 years of our history, we had essentially no Federal war on drugs, and far fewer problems with drug
addiction and related crimes was a consequence. In the past 30 years, even with the hundreds of millions of dollars
spent on the drug war, little good has come of it. We have vacillated from efforts to stop the drugs at the source to
severely punishing the users, yet nothing has improved.
This war has been behind most big government policy powers of the last 30 years, with continual undermining of our
civil liberties and personal privacy. Those who support the IRS's efforts to collect maximum revenues and root out the
underground economy, have welcomed this intrusion, even if the drug underworld grows in size and influence.
The drug war encourages violence. Government violence against nonviolent users is notorious and has led to the
unnecessary prison overpopulation. Innocent taxpayers are forced to pay for all this so-called justice. Our eradication
project through spraying around the world, from Colombia to Afghanistan, breeds resentment because normal crops
and good land can be severely damaged. Local populations perceive that the efforts and the profiteering remain
somehow beneficial to our own agenda in these various countries.
Drug dealers and drug gangs are a consequence of our unwise approach to drug usage. Many innocent people are
killed in the crossfire by the mob justice that this war generates. But just because the laws are unwise and have had
unintended consequences, no excuses can ever be made for the monster who would kill and maim innocent people for
illegal profits. But as the violent killers are removed from society, reconsideration of our drug laws ought to occur.
A similar approach should be applied to our war on those who would terrorize and kill our people for political reasons.
If the drug laws and the policies that incite hatred against the United States are not clearly understood and, therefore,
never changed, the number of drug criminals and terrorists will only multiply.
Although this unwise war on drugs generates criminal violence, the violence can never be tolerated. Even if repeal of
drug laws would decrease the motivation for drug dealer violence, this can never be an excuse to condone the violence.
On the short term, those who kill must be punished, imprisoned, or killed. Long term though, a better understanding of
how drug laws have unintended consequences is required if we want to significantly improve the situation and actually
reduce the great harms drugs are doing to our society.
The same is true in dealing with those who so passionately hate us that suicide becomes a just and noble cause in their
effort to kill and terrorize us. Without some understanding of what has brought us to the brink of a worldwide conflict in
reconsidering our policies around the globe, we will be no more successful in making our land secure and free than the
drug war has been in removing drug violence from our cities and towns.
Without some understanding why terrorism is directed towards the United States, we may well build a prison for
ourselves with something called homeland security while doing nothing to combat the root causes of terrorism. Let us
hope we figure this out soon. We have promoted a foolish and very expensive domestic war on drugs for more than 30
years. It has done no good whatsoever. I doubt our Republic can survive a 30-year period of trying to figure out how
to win this guerilla war against terrorism. Hopefully, we will all seek the answers in these trying times with an open mind
and understanding.
BR549
(11/3/01; 12:29:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 64614)
Maybe it washed in the Hudson River with the other missing WTC Gold
Old Yeller (msg#: 64612)---
Good point!!
RR was at Goldman's also. I'll bet he knows where that Argentinian Gold is for sure.
BR549
BR549
(11/3/01; 12:17:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 64613)
Tannehill (msg#: 64610) &Sir Black Blade @ msg#: 64589
http://www.goldinstitute.org/worldgoldprod.html
FWIW-The above link chart shows Gold production on the increase in the world since 1840. Although I agree that small mines are bing driven out of business because of the cost of production being so far below the POG.
BR549
Old Yeller
(11/03/01; 12:14:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 64612)
BR549;Argentina's official gold
As I recall,Goldman Sachs advised Argentina on establishing their currency board.One of the conditions for implementation was the sale of all of their reserve gold.
Gee,I wonder who they sold it to?
Black Blade
(11/3/01; 12:07:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 64611)
Tannehill
Sounds good to me ;-)
Of course oil is consumed and gold is not. Gold is stored. In the 1930's there was more gold per person. Now there is a much larger world population and even as gold production techniques have impoved and become more efficient, there is less gold per person. So there are many similarities. Cheers!
- Black Blade
Tannehill
(11/3/01; 11:56:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 64610)
Sir Black Blade @ msg#: 64589
none
SUNSET FOR THE GOLD BUSINESS?
hypothetical link and snippit:
<http://www.screwgeologist.com/science/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=666>
So,Sir Black Blade this is how I interpret your msg# 64589, I have taken the liberty to re-word it, more appropriately for the GOLD forum to which you posted. What do you think?
Snippit:
So is the gold really running out? The answer is easy: Yes. Nobody seriously disputes the notion that gold is, for all practical purposes, a nonrenewable resource that will run out some day, be that weeks or months away. The harder question is determining when precisely gold will begin to get scarce. And answering that question involves scaling Hubbert's peak.
M. King Hubbert, a GEOLOGIST of legendary status among depletion experts, forecast in 1956 that gold production in the United States would peak in the early 1930s and then slowly decline, in something resembling a bell-shaped curve. At the time, his forecast was controversial, and many rubbished it. After 1930, however, empirical evidence proved him correct: gold production in America did indeed peak and has been in decline ever since.
Dr Hubbert's analysis drew on the observation that gold production in a new area typically rises quickly at first, as the easiest and cheapest reserves are tapped. Over time, reserves age and go into decline, and so mining gold becomes more expensive. Gold from that area then becomes less competitive in relation to other minerals, or to gold from other areas. As a result, production slows down and usually tapers off and declines.
Since much of the world's gold is now produced in ageing mines that are rapidly declining. Geologists conclude that global gold production would not have peaked five decades ago, if the necessary investments had been made. So how much is necessary? If gold companies are to replace the output lost at those ageing mines and meet the world's ever-rising demand for gold, the geologists reckon they must invest 1 billion ounces of "gold equivalent" in non-GOLD-PEC countries over the next decade alone. Or they could take the alternate route, using CIA satellite spy technology, most of the world's shallow gold resources have been mapped. Now, if they can get "their geologists" into the gold mining companies, these are the geologists that will make the gold discoveries of the future. You know that nothing happens by accident. TPTB are already lining up the future gold finders of the world, so they can be rewarded appropriately. That is -- have someone else do the work, and have your guys get the credit.
Tannehill: It isn't a question of whether there is enough gold and when will we "run out." The question is whether there is an abundant supply of "Cheap Gold" to fuel the economy to recovery and beyond. At the right price, currently uneconomic and unconventional gold resources become viable reserves. More devious plans and schemes will be required to develop new gold production, and higher energy prices will cap any economic recovery. If higher energy prices are going to cap the recovery of gold, then something must be done about those energy prices.
May you live and work in interesting times.
That's all from Tannehill.
Netking
(11/3/01; 11:43:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 64609)
Galearis - Ag / Clinton
I hear what you're saying buddy, we've got to ignore the "Wag The Dog" production on silver (the movie was actually on locally here last night). Eventually there will be ignition of this and the gold market, whichever ignites first will set of the other also.
As Mr Butler has pointed out by keeping the price low(paper) they are actually speeding up the decline of the remaining physical, what will ration the D & S dynamics is P R I C E. In the meanwhile it lets folks accumulate more Ag & Au at insane low prices yes . . . . many will look back at this year and "wish".
------------------------------------------------------------
*** "I'd Do A Better Job" Says Bill Clinton ***
Former President Bill Clinton thinks he's better trained and equipped to be a war-time leader than President Bush. At least, that's what he told Paul McCartney's girlfriend at a party -- and she told the press. According to Heather Mills, she asked him if he wished he was still president. "I said to Clinton, ‘Do you wish you were president now?' and he said, ‘I feel I would be better trained for it, more prepared.' " Just to refresh everybody's mind, President Clinton is the President who attacked the pharmaceutical plant in the Sudan, coincidentally three days after his testimony to a grand jury about his affair with Monica Lewinsky. Whether or not the Sudan and the handful of cruise missiles he sent on a mission that President Bush described as 'million dollar missiles in search of $10 tents' was justified is not the issue. The man who believes he would do a better job than Bush will forever be remembered as the 'Wag the Dog' president. He embarrassed the nation by his actions, and convinced the whole world that Osama bin-Laden was just a cover story. It's possible that's all it was. But if it weren't, it is all the more damning. Without the Lewinsky affair clouding America's real motives, we may have taken the threat more seriously and gone after bin-Laden in earnest, before September 11. A better war-time leader? We think not.
http://www.nypost.com/news/nationalnews/33176.htm
Old Yeller
(11/3/01; 11:20:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 64608)
Open letter from NYC
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0111/S00016.htm
What does this have to do with gold?
Gold represents economic freedom,just as AG has written of in his past.Freedom starts with the truth;in all it's horrible and frightening incarnations.If one believes in a free market for gold,one must work for the truth.
Gold is but a small part of this increasingly complex equation.Then again,with enough time and effort devoted to the cause of opening the deep storage vault to those outside the increasingly toxic inner circle,it could be the catalyst for opening many other doors. Gold threatens the absolute power of the dollar,we know this and so do they.
The media is complicent for the most part in pitching the official line.The people do not have to accept news packaged by high priced PR firms working for the administration and the Pentagon.Why do US taxpayers have to pay a premium for slick packaging of information they expect to come directly and honestly from their employees,the people who are directing this campaign?
BR549
(11/3/01; 11:16:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 64607)
*****Best of the Gold Trail. . . MSG # (120)****
FOA correctly points out the failure of derivatives to produce any type of real value when compared to physical Gold. Once the derivative process begins to fail, the PODerivatives will fall and cause a corresponding rise in the POG. The infusion of billions into the US economy to fight the WAR and prop up a failing economy will cause FRN's to go beyond normal inflation and cause a massive failure in all paper based assets. Derivatives will then not be able to be covered by additional paper and demand will be made for settlement and delivery. Fiat will decline in real purchasing power and the POG for physical Gold coins and bullion will skyrocket.
FOA's words correspond with everything that I have been able to find out about derivatives, not only in Gold, but in other derivative underlying assets.
BR549
FOA (msg#111)--It was close between Walking On Solid Ground and #120 but #111 is outside of the 30 day posting range.
Mr Gresham
(11/3/01; 11:13:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 64606)
auspec
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/corrigan110501pv.html
That was a great Corrigan read, thanks!
BR549
(11/3/01; 10:38:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 64605)
Don't Cry for me Argentina, at least until CitiBank and Bank Boston get their bailout's negotiated
http://www.bcra.gov.ar/english/EFpaginas/e0301a00.asp?bco=AAA30
My theory posted a while back was the Central Banks all over the world are no better than the Federal Reserve when it comes to manipulative practices. The conspiracy is to protect banksters around the world.
In my continuing research into derivatives on an international basis, I went to the Central Bank of Argentinas WEB site and found some interesting information. There are derivative manipulations taking place but not much documentation as to how much Gold is left in their Treasury. That indicates to me that they have none.
According to their link the Bank may:
"a) purchase and sell at market prices, in spot and forward transactions, public bonds, foreign exchange, and other financial assets for the purpose of monetary and exchange regulation;
b) 12 assign to such Trust Funds as the National Executive Power may create, or to such financial institutions as it may authorize, the management and transfer of financial assets and liabilities;
c) purchase and sell gold and foreign exchange. In case it does so on behalf of the Ministry of Economy and Public Works and Utilities, as financial agent for the National State, such losses or income generated shall be credited to or debited from the National Government account;
d) receive gold in custody;
e) act as correspondent or agent of other central banks, or represent or participate in any
international entity existing or to be created for banking, monetary or financial cooperation purposes;
f) receive deposits in local or foreign currency.
g) 13 create financial policies which address small and medium enterprises and regional economies by means of differential reserves or minimum cash requirements."
But where is this Gold they can buy? Unlike the FED, they can also sell their Gold which I think they have done because I can't find it on their balance sheets or financial statements. Maybe loaned, or leased to another CB of to a foreign bank and carried under a different classification? Or I may have just missed it.
Since their main job is to protect their currency and they are in the process of default, who else will be affected via investing into this economy?
Out of their top 10 financial institutions involved in their financial system two of them are:
Top 10 Financial Institutions - Institution List
Code Denomination
00265 BANCA NAZIONALE DEL LAVORO S.A.
00314 BANCO BISEL SOCIEDAD ANONIMA
00007 BANCO DE GALICIA Y BUENOS AIRES S.A.
00044 BANCO HIPOTECARIO S.A.
00072 BANCO RIO DE LA PLATA S.A.
00015 BANKBOSTON, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION
00017 BBVA BANCO FRANCES S.A.
00016 CITIBANK N.A.
00150 HSBC BANK ARGENTINA S.A.
00043 SCOTIABANK QUILMES S.A.
My, my, my--Who was that guy who used to be secr. of treas. under clinton? I think that he lives in Boston now. His name keeps popping up all over my research into derivatives and high risk failures.
I smell BAILOUT.
BR549
Galearis
(11/3/01; 10:30:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 64604)
@Netking
Another oops(!) on silver...
Sorry. My only excuse is that it is Saturday here (smile)
Excuse me: that is a deficit of +10 - +12 million oz per month deficit on 63 million oz (less now) production per month.
I'll stop now while I'm still ahead.
G.
USAGOLD
(11/3/01; 10:25:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 64603)
Argentina Faces Financial Disaster, our Upcoming Quarterly Review, and a CALL TO CONTEST, make that MINI-CONTEST
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html
"Are you worried about South America? Don't! We will print all the money it takes to save any and all US financial interest in that sector." -- FOA, Gold Trail Msg #128
If FOA is correct in his assumption above, then the Fed will need to gear up fast. It looks like the Argentine default is going to run to $132 billion according to a New York Times article this morning. The Times calls it "the biggest financial collapse of any country in history." To give you some perspective, that figure is twice the size of Russia's default in 1998 -- who knows what additional financial carnage this will cause as it rolls over to Wall Street beginning next week. We know though that Wall Street financial houses are up to their eyeballs in Argentine debt instruments.
So we suffer the revisitation of an old Horseman -- the Asian contagion, only this time its right in our own backyard. (Perhaps we should rename it!) The IMF has already backed off from this one. Does that put the Fed on the front line?
The following is a quote from the shrewd and historically erudite James Grant (Grant's Interest Rate Observer). His most recent treatise on gold and the merits of private ownership comprise the lead story for our upcoming Quarterly Review available by registering at the link above. We feel privileged to have received Mr. Grant's permission to re-publish one of the more important essays on gold written in recent years -- rights the Grant Interest Rate Observer does not allow readily. James Grant is generally considered one of the best, if not "the" best, financial writer on the Wall Street scene today. Those of you unfamiliar with his communication skills (and philosophy) will get a feel for it from the extract below:
"Grant's was bullish on gold long before Al Qaeda started getting its name in the papers and we were bullish for the right reasons. . .Following the roll-up of the European currencies, only four basic monetary alternatives present themselves: euros, yen, Swiss francs, gold. Of these, only gold is beautiful to look at and not replicable on a high-speed printing press."
The Grant essay runs for ten of the 32 pages in the upcoming Review complete with graphs and tables. We welcome your registration.
News & Views is now in editing and will be to the printer early next week.
P.S. This issue we also selected one of FOA's posts for a new section: The Best of the Gold Trail. Can you guess which one? Hint: It's not the latest quoted above.
- - - - - - - - - -
Hear ye! HEAR YE! A Call to Contest! A CALL TO CONTEST!
In fact (For all the Gold Trail hikers) let's have a MINI-CONTEST for the weekend. Which essay from the Trail was selected as our very first Best of the Trail and why? Let's keep it Short & Sweet. All who choose the right Trail piece as this Quarter's Best will get a silver eagle. Best short essay get's a one-tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonic. Contest ends Sunday midnight MST. Surround your entry with stars and include "Best of the Gold Trail. . . MSG # (Your choice)" in the Title. The one chosen was posted within the past 30 days. Who knows? maybe your favorite was our favorite. Good luck. One entry per poster.
Galearis
(11/3/01; 09:50:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 64602)
@ Netking
last message
Meant to say (inflation adjusted??!!)
G.
Galearis
(11/3/01; 09:47:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 64601)
@Netking
your Silver - Elliott Wave Int.
Interesting times, indeed! With all those conflicting and non-sensical messages floating about about TAs, that would, on a cursory examination, be sound but are more in line with the new, faddish "New Age" economics, in this new age fundamentals are a separate entity from paper markets TAs and do not count.
I FULLY agree with what you say. We are running out of silver to the tune of some +63 million oz deficit per month on falling world production and less than 100 million oz. of known (documented) above ground supplies and YET the market has to bottom out to a brand new (inflation adjusted) low of $3.48 - or $.50 depending on point of view and end view timeline - unless we run out of silver, of course, in the "mean" time.
As you imply, the New Age economics would seem to mean that commodities now have to completely run out before positive market fundamentals are realized.
Regards,
G.
auspec
(11/3/01; 09:30:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 64600)
Canuck/More Bonds
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/corrigan110501pv.html
.
Interstate
(11/3/01; 08:27:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 64599)
Ole Yeller: More Bush history
In my research I found the following information:
Saddam Hussein had $5 billion loan defaults. The Bush administration had pledged taxpayer guarantees should Saddm default on the loans, which he did after invading Kuwait. More than $360 millon in American tax money was paid to the Gulf Internation Bank in Bahrain which was owned by 7 Gulf nations including Iraq. This was the first of an estimated $1 billion to be paid.
Author Russell S. Bowen wrote "The $1 billion commitment, in the form of loan guaantees for the purchase of US farm commodities, enabled Saddam to buy needed food on credit and to spend his scarce hard currency on the arms buildup that brought war to the Persian Gulf.
On Aug. 2, Bush was asked by reporters if he intended to intervene in Iraq's invasion into Kuwait. Bush said that he was not contemplating such action.
After a meeting with Margaret Thatcher that same day, Bush had a change of heart. Saddam had already told April Glaspie that his only intention was to get Kuwait back as part of Iraq. According to the transcripts of that meeting, Ms. Glaspie stated "We have no opinion of your Arab-Arab conflicts. Secretary Baker has directed me to emphasize the instruction, first given to Iraq in the 1960's, that the Kuwaiti issue is not associated with America."
This meeting was July 25.
After meeting with Thatcher, Bush called the leaders of Saudi Arabia and warned them they would be the next target of Hussein. The Saudis gave as much as $4 billion to Bush and other world leaders as secret payoff to protect their kingdom. This was according to Sheik Fahd Mohammed al-Sabah. Long after the Gulf War, audits found this money had been diverted into a London slush fund.
Bush soon drew a "line n the sand". And what do you know?The line was located between the Iraqi forces and oil interests owned by his son George W. Bush, who was a consultant to and a board member of Harken Energy Corp.
There is more about this War, but I'll leave the research up to you. There is a link called "Bush Watch" out of Austin, Texas that may be of interest.
I am not being critical with this info, and I think that George W. has a handle on our situation now. But I also can tell you that ANY politician carries a closet full of skeletons. Check out Henry Kissinger.
But I am a patriotic American who is proud to be here but one who loves history.
Later, Interstate
auspec
(11/3/01; 08:12:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 64598)
Canuck
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_01/hamilton110501.html
I have yet to complete this particular Zelotes' essay, but thought you might be interested if you have not yet seen it. The bond market does dwarf the stock market in magnitude, and much will be learned from this course of study.
auspec
(11/3/01; 08:05:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 64597)
ORO/Still Hoping/Repost
Good Sir, may I direct a question your direction in regards to the various 'independent' Central Banking institutions across the globe? Please pardon the repost. The pupil is in search of the teacher. Would love one of your extensive and in-depth analysis, but will settle for what you are willing to explain, or even a pertinent reference. These questions have been expressed a couple times in the last week or so w no takers. I have no doubts that you are more than capable of expounding on this issue if you would be so gracious.
Starting with our own Fed, its owners are known and fairly available to a 'seeker'. Of course there is a degree of common ownership between the Fed and the BoE, and I will further venture this 'commonality' extends outwards to Canada, South Africa, Australia, and New Zealand just for starters.
How about the various EU countries? There have certainly been 'mergers and acquisitions' throughout the centuries, no? The simple fact that the same folks keep marrying the same folks speaks for commonality of CB ownership here. Who owns the Bundesbank, for examble? Strictly Germans? Do these same enttities own portions of other CBs?
China is most intriguing to try and figure out along this line of thought. Are they strictly centrally planned w/o outside influences, or have the ancient European and Chinese passages left footprints? Brits to HK to China? Same goes with Russia {even more so} with their previous monarchy.
How about South America, which has deep European ties, being former 'colonies' to a degree at least? Of course there are many methods of 'influencing' a country such as Ecuador into gold market participation, really no point in elaborating right now. Common partial ownership or undue influence wouldn't hurt the cause.
I would guess that the Islamic world of CBs is a world unto itself. How does all this break down?
Are CB ownership 'chips' subject to transfers or M & A's? Hostile takeovers? Can you advance this line of thinking for many of us?
Thank you in advance, ORO.
Kind regards,
auspec
Pandagold
(11/3/01; 07:39:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 64596)
Usual Ode to Gold
Usul: As you didn't give credit, am I to assume you are the poet? If so, excellent. If not, still excellent whoever the person with time on hand to muse and pen.
Might I offer a suggestion that the last two words of the third line of the last verse could be replaced by the single but two syllable word 'unfold'.
The meaning would still be there, and it would perhaps rhyme a little better.
It's only a suggestion, your declining to take up would be no offence.
Panda
Canuck
(11/3/01; 06:01:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 64595)
To students of the bond markets
In the last 6 months I have made an effort to study the bond markets. The announcement of the 30 yr. bond is IMHO very important. Please check these 3 articles, all discuss the implications in varying degrees.
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html#anchor0
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htm
http://216.46.231.211/credit.htm
Upon completion check out FOA as he 'nails' the implication.
http://www.usagold.com/goldTrail/default.html
"Are you worried that our 10 year bond, the new bench mark, will soar and squeeze off any recovery? Don't! We will just remove it from use and move to the 5 year,,,,,,,, to be replaced later by the 2 year,,,,,,,, to be replaced later by the 6 month,,,,,, 1 month,,,,,, 1 week,,,,, 1 day,,,,,, then
CASH!"
'Visibility' gets shorter and shorter.
I believe it was Cavan Man (please correct me CM)last week that mentioned "Re-finance Now!!". This observation may prove to be important.
Usul
(11/3/01; 05:46:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 64594)
Ode to Gold
"From hence, ye beauties, undeceived,
Know, one false step is ne'er retrieved,
And be with caution bold.
Not all that tempts your wandering eyes
And heedless hearts is lawful prize;
Nor all that glisters gold."
Thus spoke Thomas Gray
About a cat that lost its way
In seeking piscine gold
But some men, oh and women too
Seek by paper profits to pursue
And heed not of risk, when they are told
Some brilliant types wrote a formula of power
Then built a financial Babel Tower
Its value derived from paper
They called their enterprise LTCM
But soon the banks had to help them
Or "pffft!" see all turn to vapor
There is a simple "fact" that many "know"
By owning paper promises they think their worth will grow
Meanwhile more debts are owed
Ignoring recession, layoffs, no profits, war threat
Now listen: Gold is gold and no-one's debt
And that's all that should be told
Pete
(11/3/01; 04:58:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 64593)
Black Blade-For every claim there is an equal and opposing claim
http://www.broadcast.com/shows/endoftheline/01archives.html
We are all programmed to believe what the PTB want us to believe. There are those that truly believe what they say is true and there are those that are paid hacks that propound so called rational facts that sound convincing. IOW's, question carefully lest ye be fooled.
Need realaudio program to listen
Click October 8 - 1st hour - James McDonald, Amazing Truth About Big Oil
James McDonald completely contradicts your article. Do we really know the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth???
Black Blade
(11/3/01; 02:52:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 64592)
US crude oil down, OPEC credibility tested
http://www.worldoil.com/news/newsstory.asp?ref=http://62.172.78.184/feeds/worldoil/new/article_e.asp?energy24=243675
Snippit:
With prices well below OPEC's target price and showing no signs of a recovery, the group's officials recently have ratcheted up talk of plans to cut output to lift the price the group's reference basket of crudes to its target of $25 a barrel. The basket price stood at $18.25 on Thursday. On Thursday, OPEC Secretary-General Ali Rodriguez said there is a growing consensus among OPEC members to cut production by 1 million barrels a day. OPEC has cut production by a combined 3.5 million barrels a day, or 13%, this year in an effort to keep the price near its target. The effort was largely successful until Sept. 11.
Black Blade: At current prices OPEC will need to cut production by at least 2 million bbl/day. Should get "Interesting."
Black Blade
(11/3/01; 02:26:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 64591)
Natural gas is back in season.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B8D4CF62F%2D881B%2D4414%2D91E3%2DCBAC4FDF3955%7D
Long-term picture upbeat for natgas
Snippit:
Futures prices for November natural gas climbed in October to $3.20 from $2.21 per million British thermal units, a 31 percent jump based on a third-quarter drop in gas drilling activity and forecasts for a colder-than-normal winter. See Futures Movers.
But the prospects for natural-gas prices and related company issues could begin to perk up even more as the U.S. enters the winter months, with third-quarter output of the commodity down nearly 2.5 percent among the larger producers, analysts said. "All it took was a downturn in (drilling) activity and a drop in the price for fundamentals of production growth to come to a screeching halt and begin to head the other way," said Credit Lyonnais analyst Brad Beago.
If the industry comes out of recession in late spring of next year, demand will start going up and with new power plants on line and deliverability starting to decline from the cutback in drilling activity, natural gas producers will have to increase production to make up the difference, he said. "Once you see U.S. demand start to accelerate again, providing our economy heats up again, then we're going to be short on gas," he said.
Black Blade: The limitations on energy supply will keep any economic recovery in check. AGA data is in question and natural gas in storage could be grossly overstated. The drop in drilling activity ensures that NG prices will remain high. There are nearly 300 new NG-fired power plants due to come online between now and 2006.
Old Yeller
(11/3/01; 02:05:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 64590)
Bush family history
G.W. Bush is the fourth in line of weapon financiers and armed conflict catalyzers that stretch back to WW I.I was shocked to read of Prescott Bush's deep involvement in the rebuilding of the German war machine,which included,among many other shocking revelations;covert support for Hitler's terrorists.It is absolutely amazing to me that he did not spend time in prison for treason.
This family has a documented history of being involved in the defense industry and profiting in terms of wealth and power from blood spilled in wars.They also have a history of suppression of information that could prove damaging to their reputations.One does not have to go much farther than the Carlyle Group to realize this continues to this day.This is more than just coincidence.There is a pattern here.This is the family business;oil appears to be a side issue as a means of diversion from the actual real generator of family wealth and influence.
To question motives of GWB and his gang is not anti-American,unpatriotic or insensitive to the anguish suffered by those who paid such a terrible price on Sept.11.I would put forward that these questions must be answered to protect innocent lives on both sides of this conflict,as it unfolds.In addition,asking your elected representatives
difficult questions about their past conduct in creating the conditions for this tragedy as well their intentions to carry forward with yet more bloodshed is part of the American political process.This is free speech.
The truth,to it's fullest extent and impact,is not being presented to the American people.There are too many interchangable characters in this drama that deviate from friend to foe across a very nebulous demilitarized zone.The exploitation and control of vast oil and gas reserves,coupled with this administrations'connections and influence in this field,is too large of a conflicting agenda not to be examined with the upmost scrutiny.
These people must be confronted on this issue.
To me,this bears an eerie resemblance to the issue of US gold reserves.We are told they exist in their stated form,just as we are told that this is a war on terrorism
and the main objective is the safety of American people.
This society is supposed to be based on open disclosure,honesty,integrity and,flowing from this,the ability to make the best possible decisions in the best interests of all stakeholders in the American dream .
We're not getting that from this bunch.They scare me.
Black Blade
(11/3/01; 01:52:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 64589)
SUNSET FOR THE OIL BUSINESS?
http://www.economist.com/science/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=842272
Snippit:
So is the oil really running out? The answer is easy: Yes. Nobody seriously disputes the notion that oil is, for all practical purposes, a nonrenewable resource that will run out some day, be that years or decades away. The harder question is determining when precisely oil will begin to get scarce. And answering that question involves scaling Hubbert's peak.
M. King Hubbert, a Shell geologist of legendary status among depletion experts, forecast in 1956 that oil production in the United States would peak in the early 1970s and then slowly decline, in something resembling a bell-shaped curve. At the time, his forecast was controversial, and many rubbished it. After 1970, however, empirical evidence proved him correct: oil production in America did indeed peak and has been in decline ever since.
Dr Hubbert's analysis drew on the observation that oil production in a new area typically rises quickly at first, as the easiest and cheapest reserves are tapped. Over time, reservoirs age and go into decline, and so lifting oil becomes more expensive. Oil from that area then becomes less competitive in relation to other fuels, or to oil from other areas. As a result, production slows down and usually tapers off and declines.
Since much of the world's oil is now produced in ageing fields that are rapidly declining. The IEA concludes that global oil production need not peak in the next two decades if the necessary investments are made. So how much is necessary? If oil companies are to replace the output lost at those ageing fields and meet the world's ever-rising demand for oil, the agency reckons they must invest $1 trillion in non-OPEC countries over the next decade alone. Ouch.
Black Blade: It isn't a question of whether there is enough oil and we will "run out." The question is whether there is an abundant supply of "Cheap Oil" to fuel the economy to recovery and beyond. At the right price, currently uneconomic and unconventional oil resources become viable reserves. Higher energy prices will be required to develop new oil production, and higher energy prices will cap any economic recovery.
Black Blade
(11/3/01; 01:08:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 64588)
November Natural Gas Prices Rise on Cold Winter Forecasts, according to Natural Gas Intelligence
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/011102/22155_1.html
DULLES, Va.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 2, 2001--Taking strength from recent forecasts of a colder-than-normal winter for much of the country, spot prices for natural gas to be delivered in November advanced from October levels by more than a dollar to about $1.50, according to the monthly bidweek survey conducted by Natural Gas Intelligence. The benchmark Henry Hub price averaged $3.16 per Mcf, up from advance bids for October of $1.87 and a tally of HH spot transactions throughout last month of $1.93/Mcf.
The two bullish long-lead forecasts in mid-October accelerated the uptrend normally seen as winter kicks in. First Salomon Smith Barney's meteorologist Jon Davis predicted this winter would be similar to the last one and be in the top third of the coldest winters in last 106 years. Three days later the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its own chilly winter forecast, calling for a repeat of last winter's heavy Midwest and Northeast snow, and cold air in the South.
Black Blade: The energy crisis is far from over. Drilling activity has fallen off, AGA storage and injection data is in serious doubt, the AGA abandons storage and injection collection data under criticism from the NG industry due to questionable methodology, and new NG-fired power plants are coming online. A cold winter will draw heavily on supply.
Netking
(11/3/01; 00:57:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 64587)
Silver - Elliott Wave Int.
For the silver bugs . . . forgive me but it's not good news for silver bulls from the Elliott wave forecaster, but don't shoot the messanger ok!
Snippet:
"Silver also reversed in line with our near-term bearish forecast. The highest probable wave count labels the $4.76 high intermediate wave (4) within a still developing Primary wave C . . . . Wave (5) is now underway and should draw prices below $3.48 to complete silvers 21-year bear market. Prices should not rise above $4.76. A push above this high would eliminate the current count and argue for a further rally."
------------------------------------------------------------
So there you have it, a view on the paper market, maybe heading down to around $3.48/oz unless the POS shoots above $4.76, hang in there . . . heck we've almost reached the end of that 21 year bear, not long now then the "big ugly grizzly" will get some lead as the bull wakes & roars. E waves theory's only problem is that the Ag physical is showing "some signs" in "some areas" of being harder to come by. Sir Michael/USAGold are kindly seeing what they can find out for me and Rich. with regards to the extent of Ag shortages as they see it in within the industry.
As for the southern hemisphere city where I live, the refiners & sellers keep advertising buy & sell prices for silver . . . yep it's "business as usual" folks, 1kg Ag bars at a current sell price of around USD$4.10/ounce (coverted from local $ to USD). . . BUT the only problem is they haven't got any to sell! "Come back in two weeks" or "we'll put you on our waiting list" is the common reply unless you order from much further afield and wait 2 weeks+ for delivery.
Something is "wrong" for sure, we are seeing (IMO) a definite gap between the paper & physical markets appearing, or so it would seem. As Sir Black Blade would say, "Interesting Days".
- Netking
Belgian
(11/3/01; 00:41:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 64586)
Combining TG and J. Puplava
Both have been giving us (freely), more than enough fundamentals (facts), to conclude, without any doubt, that the US$, is and must be, at a dramatic cross-point ! Now more than ever before ! My strong intuition is telling me, that the US$, has "already", been abondoned. The US$, has been defended with *all* means, possible. With the elimination of the 30 years debt paper, some of the last indicators of the dramatic undertone, has been removed.
Who wants to issue debt, with the knowledge that he will be repaid with a dramatic declining currency ?
The political will to defend the US$, at any cost, will change into political unwill, when nothing will work anymore. POO / POG / INTEREST RATES / STOCKMARKETS / and last but not least "WAR", are dollar-symbols, that unilaterally pointed in only one direction of (virtual) strength. Cyclical nature of things, has been manipulated into artificial systematics. 365 days of summer !?
The trade deficit and the ever increasing debt, can't disappear with a US$, remaining strong. Lowering *all* interest rates in order to slow down debt-growth (interest on debt) and in a last effort to avoid default, has a limit, when at zero. Tomorrow, Yen and US$, are freely available, and no one wants them ! Because, what are you going to do with it ? What kind of real economic initiative are you going to undertake with this easy, costless money, available with trainloads ? Some more financial gambling ?
Investing in real estate to be sold or rented to the growing masses of unemployed ? Or keep on consuming ?
Ask the 200 million Japanese as economic force N°2, for some advise ?
And here I'm again with that stupid little word of "saturation". Congestive saturation of everything !
Not the start or restart of another era of renewed expansion, growth, peace and prosperity...but the ending process of stucking/suffocating total- mis-management. The path (political will) of least resistance. Laissez aller !
To get rid of the enormous, decades-accumulated, unproductive debt-load of the past...there is only one option left : make it totally *WORTHLESS* ! Hyperlalafladerla !
When Europ was still on its diversity of floating currencies, we experienced what this destructive competition of currency-lala, ment ! A negative spiral from the weakening currencies, around the strong German mark as anchor ! And then the euro. And positive results are to be seen in the previous weak, such as Spain, Portugal and already Greece.
Is there a similarity with the US$ and other weakening (floating) currencies around it ? No, there isn't !
The German mark anchor was (still is) intrinsically strong.
The dollar has to pretend strenght !
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.
|
Centennial Precious Metals Gold coins & bullion since 1973 Denver, Colorado 80246-0009 We educate first-time investors! |
for quotes and purchase information.
|
