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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/3/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
YGM
(01/03/01; 23:49:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 44991)
A subject not discussed....(unless I missed it)
Currency outflows from 11 nations about to exchange for new Fiat??
How much cash is being socked away in Dow & Duck, Bonds etc and Gold before the six month exchange period ends? Interesting I think....YGM.
YGM
(01/03/01; 23:44:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 44990)
Euro Tax Man Comin....
HOW MUCH GOLD WILL BE BOUGHT FIRST?>>>>>LOTS!!!
Euro swap will trap French tax evaders
FROM CHARLES BREMNER IN PARIS
GOVERNMENTS across Europe are quietly preparing to trap money-launderers and tax evaders when a mountain of cash emerges for exchange into euros on the launch of the new currency next January.
France, which has a long tradition of cash-hoarding by bank-shy citizens and tax-averse tradesmen, is leading the way with plans to monitor the origin of big sums when people turn up with suitcases of francs in the six-month changeover period. As much as £15 billion, half of all notes in circulation, are believed to be stuffed under French mattresses, in drawers or in private safes, according to banks.
Financial institutions and the tax authorities are hoping to reap a windfall from the currency changeover. Tax authorities and banks in all 12 euro states are bracing for the emergence of billions of pounds in hidden cash when citizens are forced to convert notes before they become worthless. If handled right, the exercise will provide a windfall opportunity for banks to collar savings and divert them into investment and also for the taxman to nail "dirty" money.
However there are fears that the confusion of the mass changeover will be used by criminals to launder illicit cash holdings. The impact could be spectacular in Italy, where a fifth of the economy is officially estimated to run on cash, much of it beyond the reach of banks and the taxman. The country's antiquated banking system will make it hard for the authorities to keep tabs on people turning up with suitcases of lire, Italian officials say. In Germany, which has a smaller black economy and a tightly regulated banking system, officials still fear that criminals could use the confusion of the changeover to launder cash.
"It is going to be boom-time for drug dealers and criminals trying to shed their holdings," a Berlin official said. Belgium, which also operates heavily on cash, is taking steps to check the origin of big sums.
France, with its old tradition of cash-hoarding, is taking the toughest measures to monitor the expected flood of big-denomination franc notes, which cease to be legal tender on February 17 next year. Thrifty French countryfolk and cash-only tradesmen were told yesterday to expect attention from the taxman. Keeping a nest egg in a bas de laine, or woollen stocking, is still popular among older French, especially in rural areas. Up to 80 per cent of all Fr500 (£50) notes are said by the Banque de France to be out of circulation. With French taxes among the highest in Europe, a substantial share of the banknote mountain is assumed to be held by artisans and small businessmen who operate au noir — on the black — to stay free of the taxman and the VAT man.
The franc-euro exchange will be free, but the catch for illicit cash-holders is that all but relatively small sums must transit through an account, even if withdrawn immediately in euro notes. The ceiling on non-account conversions has not yet been fixed.
Consumer groups are fighting the rule on transit through accounts, saying it is unfair. The banks are chafing under sweeping laws that require them to notify authorities of all "suspicious" transactions.
The campaign to acquaint France with the future currency took off this week. Citizens are being advised to get used to buying a baguette for 61 cents rather than four francs.
Polls show the public and small businesses to be resisting the idea of scrapping the franc, but the Government is banking on the revival of the euro against the dollar to help to convince a reluctant country that the changeover will be worth the effort.
JMB
(01/03/01; 23:37:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 44989)
The Dope Addict
Your typical doper could care less about the cost of his junk. However, he is very concerned about the supply.
If our masters are going to keep the addicts pacified the upcoming credit and money growth should be astounding.
Detox is going to be a bitch!
Black Blade
(01/03/01; 22:41:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 44988)
It's a Jungle Out There!
While George Dubya was in Austin, TX entertaining a few of America's CEO's, Cheeta went ape**** and threw out a 50 basis pointed banana. That is his way of telling George Jr. who is in charge and not to get too big for his britches. However, there still remains the problem of a slowing economy, higher energy costs, declining retail sales, etc. In fact December's retail sales figures come out tomorrow, and this is one of Cheeta's favorite sets of data, so obviously he got a peek at the numbers and he was scared s***less. We are likely to see several more acts of desperation as more bananas are thrown. In other words more rate cuts are forthcoming. Of course there is the developing energy crisis that continues to eat into the pocket books of American consumers. The old chimp is going to be under a lot of pressure to head off stagflation. Consumer liquidity is almost nonexistent as most are simply tapped out. Tomorrow could be interesting. I suspect that Cheeta will soon be throwing whole bunches of bananas before long. I saw that the financial media did their part by trotting out analysts galore to shout loudly that now the bad news was out and everything is just peachy now. Sorry, but I figure if there is one cockroach, then there are likely to be many more! Besides, nothing has changed. The fundamentals still stink. The only question left is now that the FED has tossed out a banana, what will the monkeys at the ECB do now?
Zenidea
(01/03/01; 22:23:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 44987)
Old news ? Interesting read anyway :)
http://www.drfurfero.com/readings/crashof1929.html
Still reading it, immm twice now.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(01/03/01; 22:19:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 44986)
Loosely organized thoughts that might help you ponder this further, mhchuck
http://www.usagold.com/halldiscussion.html
What you are currently driving at in your (usagold.com msg#: 44980) is an important topic, indeed. So important, in fact, that I instituted the link above (found within the Hall of Fame) as a permanent reference mark for many fine thoughts on several sides of this issue. I encourage you and all others to review this material as time allows, and bring forward your additional thoughts.
As FOA/Trail Guide has indicated his scant time available for posting at the current time, perhaps this link (which contains many of his thoughts on the matter) and my following words will satisfy some of your desire for a dialogue on this.
You said to FOA, "I am confounded because you speak of gold as wealth, but not as money."
In truth, I believe a more accurate appraisal of FOA's sentiment is that "gold", "wealth", and true "money" are akin. It is the term and function of "currency" that is specifically the odd man out. So to correct the sentiment you offer, it seems more proper to say that FOA speaks of gold as wealth and speaks of gold as money, but does not speak of gold as currency. Those are by-gone days for the foreseeable future....but who knows what lurks beyond what is foreseeable?
You ask, "Isn't a system of "wealth" denominated in gold, but a commerce conducted by ever depreciating fiat akin to having your cake and eating it too?"
Marvelous thought, is it not?
Further, you ask, "Isn't this the exact system in place today, except that gold is not recognized as a wealth asset? And if it were, would not EVERYONE want to measure his or her wealth in gold and abandon fiat to an extent?"
In official operations, it has been institutional support of U.S. Treasury securities as assets that has obscured the picture somewhat for what you describe being "the exact system that is in place today". And yet even under the current scenario, we do not see everyone want to measure their wealth in these U.S. bonds and subsequently "abandon fiat to an extent". Reserves (and wealth) serve a purpose that not always meet the objectives and functionality of currency. In practice, we do tend to use "the right tool for the right job"!
You ask, "Is this not the reason why gold is "held down" in the first place?"
While it may look as though gold has been in a 21-year grinding bear market when seen through the traditional "market eyes", (or else look conspired against by "powers greater than thou"), what has transpired over the past half of the century--and particularly the past three decades--can be more aptly be described as the "work out process" of this latest monetary phase of mankind's economic evolution. After the separation from use as currency, it was necessary for gold to be lost and forgotten for a time (and seemingly languish under a mantle of paper) in order to re-emerge in the role for which it is uniquely suited...that of an uncheatable wealth reserve asset.
Such are my thoughts, and to that end, I perceive the future for gold in this new modern usage to be brighter than it has been at any time seen by those who have tilled the fertile soil before us. Change IS good...else we would be yet doomed to the mundane doings of hunters/gatherers.
PH in LA
(01/03/01; 22:03:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 44985)
Inflation updates
http://www.fuckedcompany.com/
Easy Al pulled his head out of his *ss long enough today to ascertain that there is no inflation out there anywhere so he cut interest rates. Funny, I guess he missed that piece all over ABC news yesterday about downsizing the packaging contents without cutting the price. Must have missed both of the following items also. Just where has his head been, lately, anyway?
Pricing
Online bank WingspanBank.com, mailed a letter to current customers announcing a number of
"pricing improvements", including a higher balance requirement, higher service fees, new
charges for online bill payment, lower rebates, and longer hold times on deposits. Keep those
improvements coming!
When: 1/2/2001
Company: WingspanBank.com
Also:
http://www.larouchepub.com/ref_NF1443_weimar.html
Dec. 20, 2000 (EIRNS)--A group of Washington State-based industries, including Boeing, one of America's largest companies, last week petitioned the Washington Utilities Commission for emergency relief from high electricity prices. According to Melinda Davison, the group's attorney, one company in the group paid $60,000 for one day's worth of electric power on Dec. 11, 1999. For that same day this year, that company faces a cost of $6 million, an increase of 100 times, or 9,900%, in only a single year. Most of that increase came in the last two months.
Increases of 500%, or 5,000%--even above 10,000%--in electric and gas prices, are and have been occurring across the country during the last year. Since energy is the lifeblood for the economy, skyrocketing prices devastate industry and agriculture, infrastructure, and people... (more)
mhchuck
(01/03/01; 21:04:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 44984)
Cavan Man
oops, sorry about that.
mhchuck
(01/03/01; 20:47:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 44983)
Cave Man
Bravo! A perspicacious observation on your part.
Cavan Man
(01/03/01; 20:07:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 44982)
Rate Cut
Mr. Greennspan's January surprise coming as it did, should underscore the fact that the US economy is in the danger zone both now and in the forseeable future. Smart money knowing that any rate cut however gratuitious and generous will take time to adequately oil the wheels of commerce should take this opportunity to lighten up. I expect a down day tomorrow for that reason and, if that happens, a minor rout for the DOW index to ensue. (everybody's got one)..CM
The Hoople
(01/03/01; 19:50:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 44981)
Tears of Joy (?)
Easy Al no doubt took his marching orders from his CB bosses. They saw non-performing loans,bad debt exposure,equity liabilities and God knows what else as a financial system on the brink- again. Excessive paper money creates cheap credit, which creates equity bubbles and manias for goods. It is essentially robbing forward production from the economy. We have built and financed millions and millions of homes,cars, and everything. Unless they can figure out a way to be destroyed (wars usually did the trick in the past) they will slow the economy for decades to come. Every rate cut and goosing of the money supply only adds to the hard time the economy must serve. It seems if you could only make one financial decision that would have to suffice a lifetime would you choose a paper asset or gold/silver? While this is preaching to a choir,few people understand they are making decisions that could affect their children and maybe grandchildren. As a side note I would not be surprised to see gold let off its chain and run wild for a while should GATA start hitting raw nerves in discovery. They might try to embarrass GATA by "proving" its free market. Trouble is, you can't put a genie back in a bottle.
mhchuck
(01/03/01; 19:49:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 44980)
Trail Guide
Yourself and Another have always been consistent in your vision of the future. You have consistently maintained that the world will not go back to a gold standard. That particular part of your message has caused me much distress. I attribute many of the problems in the world today to the proliferation of fiat money. For instance, the tearing apart of the social fabric of the United States directly mirrors the proliferation of fiat. And it seems whenever greatness in the past was achieved by different cultures or countries, it was accompanied by "honest" money, and whenever a country declined precipitously in standards of value and the citizens became debauched, it was also the case that the currency was simultaneously being debauched. It seems to me then, that monetary policy greatly influences the attitudes and actions of citizens as well as the health of cultures. Fiat being associated with cultural decline, and "honest" money being associated with cultural ascension. "Golden Ages" occurred when the circulating medium of exchange was "as good as gold."
I know you speak from the perspective of what these "Giants" are supposedly doing and have provided the readers of this forum incredible insights. I am confounded because you speak of gold as wealth, but not as money. In the same way, I am confounded that Doug Noland, from Prudent Bear, who writes probably the most informative letter in the world about credit expansion, and how it will ultimately destroy the world economy, said in a recent offering, "I'm not here to advocate a gold standard." I sat there thinking, "Doug, then tell me, what else on earth can harness unbridled credit expansion?"
While I would rather stand in the Footsteps of Giants than not, I believe strongly that currencies must have backing or their values ultimately decline to zero. Isn't a system of "wealth" denominated in gold, but a commerce conducted by ever depreciating fiat akin to having your cake and eating it too? Are they not mutually exclusive? Isn't this the exact system in place today, except that gold is not recognized as a wealth asset? And if it were, would not EVERYONE want to measure his or her wealth in gold and abandon fiat to an extent? Is this not the reason why gold is "held down" in the first place? If such a system evolves, would not gold become the "true" barometer measuring fiat debasement, relentlessly increasing in value to reflect unrestrained paper money creation?
I have posted quotes in the past from Ayn Rand that accurately depicted the problem. The Austrian School of Economics has accurately described the problem. Representative Ron Paul of Texas, seems to have isolated the problem, as last year he introduced a bill in congress to abolish the Federal Reserve System (how he continues to be re-elected must rank as the eighth wonder of the world, and is a testament to the many friends of freedom he has made). I have posted many quotes by John Meynard Keynes, whose convoluted thinking is used as a blueprint for today's monetary system that benefits the few at the expense of the many. It seems Mr. Keynes, and many other Prize-winning economists have their brains up their sleeve….. and up to this point, the Euro, as I see it, is the first currency said to exist without ever existing, for nobody has ever seen or touched a Euro. I am reticent, at this point, to think of the Europeans as the "good guys" in terms of reestablishing gold's value despite the following quote from Another.
ANOTHER: "The Dollar is today, strong in nature of a low gold price. Tomorrow, it will be the Euro that will find strength in a low gold price! Perhaps these dollar "gold loans" will be called in to become "Euro gold loans"? Gold priced in many thousands of USD's does not change this currency, it changes your perception of wealth."
Your contention that the "paper" gold market will fail, I think, is accepted by just about everyone, and rightly so, since yourself and Another, informed the world with great accuracy the mechanism that was being used to "corner" gold. I'm on shaky ground here, but I can't perceive what would cause the ultimate default? In other words, who is going to demand the gold and foil the master plan? That plan being discouraging gold use as a measure of wealth, and the obliteration of gold from having anything to do with currency in circulation.
I doubt any political or legal action can put an end to the greed that is concomitant with this Fiat system that reeks of injustice and corruption. I do find solace however, in the knowledge that it contains the seeds of it's own destruction, and that the misguided (just being kind) natures perpetrating it will eventually be found out. They can buy decades as Mr. Greenspan seems to think, but I have no incertitude in stating that one day the world will return to gold backed money. On that day, a new "Golden Age" will have begun.
Sincerely,
mhchuck
turbohawg
(01/03/01; 17:58:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 44979)
But, Peter ...
... everyone *knows* rates cuts are always inflationary, don't they ???
Trurl: Good post. There's lots of holes in that (continued) hyperinflation argument aren't there. In an exchange with FOA awhile back, traveller detailed very comprehensively the ultimate ramifications of the problems you are zeroing in on. If you missed it, perhaps someone can direct you to where it can be found.
R Powell
(01/03/01; 17:42:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 44978)
Re ORO's Nasdaq and Futures
If I'm interpreting properly, ORO suggested in #44964 that Put options were sold by banks to institutional investors (read mutual stock funds). The funds bought these for insurance (a hedge) to offset stock price loses in the event that prices fell. Failing stock prices reflected in the Nasdaq index number would greatly increase the put options' value, offseting stock loses.
Questions please,
Did the liability assumed by the banks from these sales place the banks in jeopardy?
Did the resulting rising price of purchasing these puts (hedge insurance) cause the mutual fund selling of stocks as holding them unhedged was too risky? If so, then are index number derivatives (options) a stabilizing, necessary (as insurance) element of the big money investors (funds)?
ORO's words "Any additional reduction in premiums as a result of reduced volatility expectations would assist in lowering the price of protective put options." Cheap insurance is more affordable than high premium insurance but after the ups and downs of the Nasdaq recently, I would quess both put and call premiums are now very costly. Even so, I have to admit that a well timed S+P or Nasdog put might be lots of fun if Friday's employment numbers are not favorable. Will we see more fund stock selling if index hedging remains too expensive in light of capital returns on stocks?? If so, it would seem the line of least resistence is down as soon as the rally falters.
Also, if A.G. did raise rates because there is a "dead body" about to be discovered (another LTCM?), how long can this kind of news be kept hidden? Faltering point?
One last question, if I may,
If the dollar's strength today was, as ORO suggested, the result of capital flow into stocks, then if stocks reverse lower and retract to just where they were before the rate change, then nothing is gained but the dollar has been weakened by the rate reduction (causing the smile on T.G.'s face). Will the dollar start back down again as soon as the market stops going up?
Any and all thoughts over any length of time welcome, especially from ORO. I hope I haven't misread or misrepresented your thoughts.
Thanks
Rich
MarkeTalk
(01/03/01; 17:24:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 44977)
Hedge fund(s) debacle in the making?
Today's "surprise" rate cut by Alan the Greenie ("genie" to some people) makes me think back to 1998 when hedge fund, Long Term Capital Management, was upside down and threatened to take down the whole financial system. With declining stock prices over the last six months, I suspect that some big boys on Wall Street were breathing their last. Bush's meeting recently with Greenspan plus today's "economic summit" in Austin, Texas all add up to emergency action to head off disaster--at least for a while. Remember, in bear markets, you SELL THE RALLIES. And rally the stock markets did do. However, no one noticed that the bond market cratered--down about 2 full points. This is in line with cycle predictions for bonds courtesy of Eric Hadik of Insiide Track newsletter.
Final thought: While the U.S. Dollar did a knee-jerk rally, I suspect that European and Asian money managers are looking at Greenspan's move today as desperation to breathe life back into a moribund economy. Keep an eye on the course of the U.S. Dollar. And how does all of this relate to gold prices? As the Dollar drops, imported goods become more expensive, thus pushing up the CPI. All other Dollar denominated commodities become more expensive, thus pushing up the PPI. From a timing perspective, next week is a full moon/lunar eclipse on January 9th. For whatever reason, markets turn on such events about 82% of the time. My opinion is that gold's day in the sun is just around the corner.
auspec
(01/03/01; 17:11:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 44976)
Paul
Welcome Aboard!
Glad to see your input today and look forward to frequent posts! These guys have been magicians for years as all their "desperate" moves have patched up and kept intact their dollar hegemony games. How long and how many patches ?
YGM
(01/03/01; 16:43:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 44975)
Pandagold....
If the story could be told....
I'm interested in the whole story as always....By email or post links if you would.....Never to old or wise to learn!
Thanks....YGM
yukongold@yknet.yk.ca
Cavan Man
(01/03/01; 16:38:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 44974)
canamami
Why, that is not a paranoid thought. That is the stuff of epic screenplays!
Cavan Man
(01/03/01; 16:37:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 44973)
venerable Holtzman
"He is the One we should love. He made the world and He stays close to it. For when He made the world He did not go away and leave it. By Him it was created and in Him it exists. Wherever we taste the truth, God is there. He is in our very inmost hearts, but our hearts have strayed from Him. Think well on it unbelieving hearts, and cling to Him who made you. Stand with Him and you shall not fall; rest in Him and peace shall be yours. What snags and pitfalls lie before you? Where do your steps lead you? The good things which you love are all from God, but they are good and sweet only as long as they are used to do His will. They wiill rightly turn bitter if God is spurned and the things that come from Him are wrongly loved. Why do you still choose to travel by this hard and arduous path? There is no rest to be found where you seek it. In the land of death you try to find a happy life: it is not there. How can life be happy where there is no life at all?"
Augustine of Hippo
"Confessions"
Book IV:12
canamami
(01/03/01; 16:34:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 44972)
Trail Guide - Best Wishes
Trail Guide,
I hope you and your family are well, and that matters resolve in a positive and desired-for manner.
I am pleased to see your recent posts, and to learn your "take" on current developments. Your posts cause one to look at matters beyond the parameters of the current mainstream paradigm.
Re Greenspan blinking. Question whether Greenspan is the agent of Ayn Rand's final revenge against mixed-economy pseudo-socialism and the fiat money system. Perhaps he's the ultimate mole-cum-fifth-columnist, subverting the system from within? Perhaps the way to destroy the fiat money system is to inflate it into oblivion? Maybe he's fulfilling his dream and plan, instead of blinking. Just a paranoid thought, upon which to reflect.
Cavan Man
(01/03/01; 16:28:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 44971)
Mr. Greenspan
is now playing their game in their house.
Cavan Man
(01/03/01; 16:25:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 44970)
ORO
IMHO, the "temporary advantage" for Euro zone is in fact a breakout strategy for ME OIL for precisely the reasons you propose. Alternative energy sources (needing infrastructure or not) are in fact waiting in the wings. A way will be found to power this world we live in. This new life gold is taking on will yield incredible leverage to ME gold holders and displace oil as the #1 natural resource. I do believe their endgame is to become a permanent and dominant fixture in global banking within the context of a new monetary regime. Those that have physical gold will participate and ride the coattails of FOA's giants. The Euro zone will never effectively compete economically (long term) with the USA--NEVER. A zebra cannot lose its' stripes. Pain ahead for the US but, we will emerge stronger and hopefully wiser than ever.
Pandagold
(01/03/01; 16:24:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 44969)
Journeyman: (#44951)
A quote from your posting, in reply to mine, reviewed
"And I'm aware of the Rothschild scam after Waterloo. Etc. It's just that "they" don't have nearly that control or power anymore. Things are too complex. There are too many players now days and too many wild cards can bollix up their plans.
Further, it was "their" ancestors who, for relatively short-term gain threw not only us, but their progeny into the paper furnace we're burning in. They had no coherent long-term plans that have held-up very well that I can see."
-----------------------------------------
Quite the opposite my friend; quite the opposite. What we are 'in' today is exactly because their power is greater today. far greater, than ever it has been. It is a network built over centuries. If it were a physical disease, it would be akin to an advance stage of terminal cancer. The long-term plans have held up excellently. Complex the situation is - yes. This is why very few can understand. The complexity is, and has been, integral to its growth and survival.
I believe you have the ability to 'see'. Just sit quietly sometime, free from distraction. Unfetter your mind, and let it expand. You have no doubt seen enough so called 'Mafia' movies. Forget the wide brimmed dark hats, and cigars, or cigarettes dangling from the corner of the mouth and any of the other clichés.
Think of the structure, then put in a little refinement and expand on it. Think network and globalisation but not just in a present day context. You need to encourage competition between your units - that makes for strength, just so long as there is unity when needed.
You need 'front men’ who do not belong the 'inside'. For instance, when the 'Mafia - the Mob' wanted to take over places in Las Vegas, they used Mormon bankers as front men.
Because I have used the word 'Mafia', and referred to some of their doings, do not lock onto this and think my subject is Sicilian mobsters or a la Hollywood gangsters . That is NOT what I am on about. It is the basic principle of organisation I am concerned with here.
Whether in the final analysis, that is, when the agenda has reached its final stage of total world control via economics (and these people do believe they have been charged with this responsibility) it will be a good thing, or a bad thing, I don't know. Maybe it will be a positive. Maybe it will end wars for good. It will almost certainly bring in a form of communism by the back road.
Yes, I know, it all sounds so unbelievable. I can understand anyone not comprehending (or even wanting to). It is a bit like having cancer - do you really want to know, or would you prefer to live out what life you have left free from the knowledge?
The best way to use the knowledge is not to worry about it, or waste your time trying to change things. A greater man than you or I tried to two millenniums ago, and look where it got Him. Use it by 'seeing' where things are going
and recognise the power that is behind it, then use that power to carry you along. Go with the flow. Learn from King Canute and don't argue with the tide.
As I have said, if this is all above you, I understand. One day, I am sure you will.
( Hope this has not been too heavy, it's hardly a piece of
dust on the full story, if it could be told)
canamami
(01/03/01; 16:16:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 44968)
Oro - re post# 44964
Oro,
You gotta force yourself to write that book...just put it down on paper, a speed demon first draft. The revisions won't be as extensive as you fear. Many apologies in advance if I'm being presumptuous, but I'm only writing this because I admire your work. Heck, a collection of your USAGOLD posts would perhaps be publishable (sic).
A quick question, and I hope you haven't already answered it on a previous post I missed (I'm not here much, anymore). You accept FOA's scenario of Arab support for an EU/Euro gambit (which I suspect is true), but also the necessary caveat that Arab oil's backing of the Euro may not be enough to carry the day for the Euro in its efforts to supplant the dollar. Does your scenario guarantee a role for gold in the future, IYHO? Assuming both the dollar and the Euro survive as major international currencies, could this mean that instead of gold being the alternative to the dollar, the Euro will be the alternative? In other words, instead of restoring gold to its former role as the ultimate money, could the Arab-backed Euro supplant gold re gold's more recent role as the dollar alternative?
tg
(01/03/01; 15:56:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 44967)
(No Subject)
How serious is the problem when "steady eddy" Greenspan, the man who has previously only changed rates by 25 point increments in the past, today decides to go a 50 point change.
Even during the LTCM debacle he made only 25 point changes,even if it was 3 of them in quick succession.
Is there something really serious about to happen
Trail Guide
(01/03/01; 15:54:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 44966)
Comment
Randy (@ The Tower) 13:32:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 44957)
-- surprise rate cut was in the works. Any other rabbits up your sleeve?------
Hi Randy,
Your post made me comment!
Ha! Ha! Allan blinked first and a small few knew it! Picture him and the ECB standing head to head, not moving an inch. He moved and now the dollar is lost. With all the quick short covering on the stock and currency markets, "noone" noticed how much the long bond got smashed.
------ A 30-year bond fell a whopping 2 10/32 to 111 2/32 to yield 5.48 percent -----
Now our strong dollar support system is fracturing away. This year the dollar will lose it's reserve status to the Euro. Or at the very least share it. Nothing is going to fall again as a "Real" inflationary bias begins to build in our dollar world. Stocks, real estate and even basic economic activity will all feel the effects of a super dollar expansion. Done only to keep the dollar status somewhat in the game. Deflation will not be allowed. Nor will the gold derivatives markets be sustainable in dollar terms. Everyone in the world will be selling paper gold short in an effort to make some hay as it's structure crashes. It's called piling on!
This move by Allan is as important as the Washington Agreement because it marks the first time we are forced to action by a "competing" financial system. This game is well known to some and it's outcome is being positioned for. The Gulf producers, Europe and the BIS have been doing so for many years.
TrailGuide
Journeyman
(01/03/01; 15:44:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 44965)
Where expanded credit (as from a FED easing) goes -- as if we didn't know! @ALL
The objective of credit expansion is to favor the
interests of some groups of the population at the expense of
others. This is, of course, the best that interventionism
can attain when it does not hurt the interests of all
groups. But while making the whole community poorer, it may
still enrich some strata. Which groups belong to the latter
class depends on the special data of each case.
+
The idea which generated what is called qualitative
credit control is to channel the additional credit in such a
way as to concentrate the alleged blessings of credit
expansion upon certain groups and to withhold them from
other groups. The credits should not go to the stock
exchange, it is argued, and should not make stock prices
soar. They should rather benefit the "legitimate productive
activity" of the processing industries, of mining, of
"legitimate commerce," and, first of all, of farming. Other
advocates of qualitative credit control want to prevent the
additional credits from being used for investment in fixed
capital and thus immobilized. They are to be used, instead,
for the production of liquid goods. According to these plans
the authorities give the banks concrete directions
concerning the types of loans they should grant or are
forbidden to grant.
+
However, all such schemes are vain. Discrimination in
lending is no substitute for checks placed on credit
expansion, the only means that could really prevent a rise
in stock exchange quotations and an expansion of investment
in fixed capital. The mode in which the additional amount of
credit finds its way into the loan market is only of
secondary importance. What matters is that there is an
inflow of newly created credit. If the banks grant more
credits to the farmers, the farmers are in a position to
repay loans received from other sources and to pay cash for
their purchases. If they grant more credits to business as
circulating capital, they free funds which were previously
tied up for this use. In any case they create an abundance
of disposable money for which its owners try to find the
most profitable investment. Very promptly these funds find
outlets in the stock exchange or in fixed investment. *The
notion that it is possible to pursue a credit expansion
without making stock prices rise and fixed investment expand
is absurd*.[6] -Ludwig von Mises, Human Action A Treatise on
Economics, Third Revised Edition (Chicago, Illinois:
Contemporary Books, Inc. 1966), pg. 795 & 796 [XXXI.
CURRENCY AND CREDIT MANIPULATION, 5. Credit Expansion
available also on-line from
http://www.mises.org/humanaction.asp]
+
[6] Cf. Machlup, The Stock Market, Credit and Capital
Formation, pp. 256-261
Regards,
Journeyman
ORO
(01/03/01; 15:44:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 44964)
Nasdaq and futures. - dollar and Euro - competing with the EU
By my rough calculation, the nasdaq buying is lagely futures and index (QQQ) related which have come through with some 60% of the funds.
The intensity of the Fed decision (1/2 point instead of 1/4)may have to do with the coming January expiration of a couple of weeks hence. The nominal drop on the ND 100 (the hedge vehicle sold by the banks to institutional investors) was over 55% from the top, and the quarterly drop was 40%, and nearly 50% from the summer rally peak. The year over year loss came in at about 40% as well. The maximum tolerance for drops of this kind on Nasdaq is some 30% by my estimate, therefore a major drop such as we have seen is too great for the banking system to tolerate. Thus once futures purchases did not work anymore at the current interest rate. Despite broker's (not investor's) margin debt rising beyond the levels seen at the market peak, the Nasdaq continued to deteriorate rapidly. The pace of decline and its persistence in the face of major price support efforts meant that put option trades were conducted at a loss that threatened some or all of the bank's financial viability.
Because the trades were too heavy on losses, and levels had accumulated so very sharply so far, it became necessary to lower the cost of the futures and the arbitrage into them to overcome the historically high friction (difference between realized and expected prices in executing an arbitrage trade) and the absolute magnitude of losses.
The heavy block trade selling yesterday and on the last trading day last year could have something to do with the inability of the banks to sell puts at a price that instituitonals could pay given their expectations for possible investment gains going forward. Not being able to hedge, they started dumping stock in order to reduce exposure. The rate cut would allow a drop in the effective cost to the bankers of conducting price support operations by 7-8%, and lower the cost of hedging to institutions by a similar proportion. Any additional reduction in premiums as a result of reduced volatility expectations would assist in lowering the price of protective put options.
Related to this is the heavy selling of stock by insiders now that cashing out of vested stock by selling rather than through guaranteed payout contracts. A large volume of insider stock was hedged and borrowed against over the years by insiders using a variety of brokerage and bank services. Through this system, insiders could lock in their income from stock grants and options while avoiding capital gains taxes. The cost was reportedly about 15%, including interest expense, providing a savings of 30% relative to after tax gains. The put option's portion of the cost of the contract was around 5-6%. At current volatility levels and interest rates, a comparable cost for the same strategy would have been 25% or so, since premiums on puts had risen 3 fold in the tech (and other high growth stocks).
Financial corporations selling thes hedge and loan packages have met heavy strains as their hedge strategies were met with illiquid markets and price gaps on opening of trade that made the hedge strategy nearly impossible to implement profitably.
The "Dead Body" that the bond market is looking for to explain the rather sharp Fed action in their announcement of Dec. and the current surprise action was still missing from public view. Needless to say, there must have been one and the corpse must have given off quite a heavy stench at the Fed's undertaking facilities.
The dollar reaction is a resumption in capital flow into stocks. The Fed and the Bushes might be thinking of working towards a continued capital drain on Europe, something not consdered by the Clintonites who tended to cooperate, and at times lead EU (particularly French) attempts at capturing international income by taxation. The attempt has been made by the Clinton IRS to capture all the income information and sources for income generated in the US financial system. They, and his Justice department have been extremely aggressive in their pursuit of financial information. The Clintonites were cooperating with the OECD efforts (led by French and some German interest) out to prevent governments from competing internationally on tax rates, regulation, and government services, namely protection of property rights.
As detailed in a post of a week ago, there are alternative options available to the Bushes that the Clintonites, being the socialists that they are, could not follow because their interests were too heavily intertwined with the preservation of a large and expanding government power. It should be pointed out that Clinton stood slightly to the left of the middle of the Democratic delegation to Congress, thus putting him to the left of at least 75% of Representatives and Senators. I am sure that many Democrats in Congress were apalled at the extent and depth of the Clintonite power grab, and were even distressed at the arrogant disregard of them that Clinton displayed in his practice of substituting executive orders for legislation - much of which did not have support of a majority of his own party's congressional delegation.
I am ever so slightly hopeful that the Bushes take apart the Clintonite barrage of executive orders and move policy away from cooperation with the EU socialists to competition - which the EU would lose because of the rigid economic and power structures.
Even with an oil backed Euro - meaning that the EU can print up its oil supply just as the US had done since 1971 - getting oil at a cost to third party countries - the EU would still face the fact that tar sands are profitable at $30-35 on a large scale, and coal based liquid fuel breaks even below $45 (numbers are a bit old, but costs were rumored to be falling), fuel cells from nuclear energy sources are also profitable at about $100 oil, and most of the cost is infrastructure - thus once it is installed, running use is very low in cost. Remember Yamani's warning to the Saudis that the "stone age did not end for lack of stones".
Europe will only be able to garner a limited and temporary advantage from the arrangement with Arab OPEC. Considering structural limitations to European management talent reaching its optimum positions in corporations, it stands to reason that the advantage would be squandered.
Note that the debtor is always the one coming ahead in a default. The debtor suffers recession - the creditor undergos a depression as existing export facilities are converted to local use, and some of the historical investment is lost. In the debtor's economy, the housing and warehouses remain and are as useful as ever, investment remains intact, just that the economy shifts from moving around imports to producing replacements for them.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(01/03/01; 15:09:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 44963)
If you follow some of the commentary at USAGOLD, you will recognize good corroborating evidence in this Brige report
[Bridge News] London--Jan. 3--COMEX Feb gold futures managed to trim some of their
losses, ending down only 70 cents at $269.30 per ounce after initially
extending Tuesday's fall and slipping to a one-month low of $267.60. Like
Tuesday's session, Wednesday's trading proved to be another puzzle, as
gold price moves appeared to defy the usual market logic.
.........As well as weakness in gold,
the Commodity Futures Trading Commission commitment of traders report
provides some clues on why the price is slipping lower, said David Meger,
metals analyst at Alaron Trading. He said that it shows small speculators
are heavily long and trading against commercials and funds, which are
short. "You tell me who you think's going to win that battle," he said.
--------------
If you are a hedge fund that has previously borrowed gold from a bullion bank in order to raise a source of low interest funds for investment purposes, please marvel how very easy it is to offer the short side of futures contracts as necessary to create the stagnation in this realm of price discovery as needed to buy the time (and metal!) to unwind the prior gold loans.
Simply put, some financial "chapters" are written for the benefit of the overall book. Use their weight and effect to your own advantage and buy gold for yourself at these bargain prices. This condition will not last forever...for reasons previously stated.
Journeyman
(01/03/01; 14:46:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 44962)
Define or be defined -Thomas Sazsz @Mr Gresham
http://csf.colorado.edu/longwaves/2001/msg00000.html
Mr Gresham (01/03/01; 14:09:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 44959)
Interesting link, Mr. G!!
The guy's got a lot correct, but over-all he's hopelessly confused because he confuses "free-markets" with fascism of the merchantilist sort.
And he seems to think that problems caused by collusion between businesses and governments can be corrected by, well, MORE collusion between businesses and governments.
Just goes to show you what havoc can be wrought by simple confusions of terms.
Regards,
Journeyman
Randy (@ The Tower)
(01/03/01; 14:35:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 44961)
Stock markets...spending currency...on what???
Historically, commercial banks have turned to the Fed Funds market for needed currency, shunning the Fed's direct discount window as though it were a self-admission of trouble and weakness. And yet, from the Fed's action and statement, we see that the Fed "stands ready to approve a further reduction of 25 basis points in the discount rate to 5-1/2 percent on the requests of Federal Reserve Banks."
As we watch stocks climb today (much short covering?) and devine the future, we must ponder why a person with an account of ready, spendable currency would use it to buy stock. After all, stock ownership can be seen as a bet on the company and its management to enjoy future prosperity. Is such prosperity likely in an environment in which the Fed finds this sudden need to help liquidate the banking system?
It is such official tinkering ostensibly "for the common welfare" that kills a fiat currency faster than what would be its natural course toward the inevitable death. So as I sit here typing this with a gold sovereign lightly clenched between my teeth (for the proper effect for the historian photographer), it strikes me as fundamentally clear that the Fed's rate cut may make dollars easier to come by, but does nothing to loosen the Earth's grip (nor the grip of other gold owners) on its preciously rare gold. As such, gold remains the supreme reserve asset honored and respected the world over...past, present, future. Call Centennial to get some for yourself at a very appealing price; with dollars that are made easier to come by, it will not always be this way. Upon what is your wealth built? Get real. Get gold.
Beowulf
(01/03/01; 14:14:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 44960)
FED
I wonder if this rate cut by the FED was due to them seeing information that is about to come out later this week. It must be really bad news to pull this stunt without the talking heads on CNBC analyzing Greenspans suitcase and whether it looked big enough to offer a rate cut.
Mr Gresham
(01/03/01; 14:09:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 44959)
Fed 50bp cut
http://csf.colorado.edu/longwaves/2001/msg00000.html
How prophetically timely...
"This explains why the record of Greenspan's recognition of market trends has been consistently six months late. Yet the Fed cannot afford to wait for market discipline to correct a credit crunch. And because of the recognition time lag, coupled with the diminished ability of the Fed to
affect market decisions, and the compressed chain reaction time of collapse, each subsequent intervention would need to be escalated or overshot to achieve comparable effect, which in turn increases moral hazard to fuel the next abuse. It is intervention inflation, similar to the narcotic syndrome of pushing towards the edge to reach new highs which always leads to fatal overdosing."
Peter Asher
(01/03/01; 13:32:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 44958)
@Pandagold
I have not doubted you for a minute about the "Big Fix."
Today is a perfect example: Gold spends several days in a down-draft with all sorts of theorizing as to why.
Answer: The inside money knew the event was coming, simple as that.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(01/03/01; 13:32:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 44957)
Press Release from the Federal Reserve on today's rate-cut decision
January 3, 2001
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 6 percent.
In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 25-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 5-3/4 percent, the level requested by seven Reserve Banks. The Board also indicated that it stands ready to approve a further reduction of 25 basis points in the discount rate to 5-1/2 percent on the requests of Federal Reserve Banks.
These actions were taken in light of further weakening of sales and production, and in the context of lower consumer confidence, tight conditions in some segments of financial markets, and high energy prices sapping household and business purchasing power. Moreover, inflation pressures remain contained. Nonetheless, to date there is little evidence to suggest that longer-term advances in technology and associated gains in productivity are abating.
The Committee continues to believe that, against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future.
In taking the discount rate action, the Federal Reserve Board approved requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Cleveland, Atlanta, St. Louis, Kansas City, Dallas and San Francisco.
-------------------
Bottom-line: The banking system will at all costs be kept afloat in a sea of liquidity at the peril of bringing the demise of the "strong dollar". The material distinction between currency units that merely grease the wheels and the actual wheels themselves (real wealth) will become ever so much clearer for all to see and appreciate.
FOA,
today you posted on the Gold Trail at 10:50 Eastern Time "Michael and Randy, today is a very good day! A very good day, indeed! (smile)"
It nearly leads me to fancy that you saw in advance that this surprise rate cut was in the works. Any other rabbits up your sleeve?
Wild Hare
(01/03/01; 13:20:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 44956)
Health food GATA
http://www.deepblacklies.co.uk/main_page.htm
I was thumbing through a magazine in a local health food store and was taken aback to see an article on Euro/Dollar/Gold/GATA. I didn't buy the magazine but did check out the website and was directed to the link posted above. I'm not sure if you can access the full article on-line or not. My apologies if this is old news.
The magazine was Nexus Magazine (nexusmagazine.com).
Peter Asher
(01/03/01; 13:18:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 44955)
It's not the principle,
it's the interest!
Put in simplistic terms, it is not the amount of unfungible (Good post, Turl) debt outstanding, but the monthly (Fungible?) cost of servicing it that controls the fate of the debt bubble.
Hopefully I'll have time tonight to post on why this will NOT be inflationary. Right no I'm out the door to manipulate some doug-fir and cedar.
John Doe
(01/03/01; 13:12:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 44954)
If I had an interest lever, I'd lever it in the morning (or afternoon), I'd lever it in the evening, all over this land...
Ah, the free market...we had one once. I'm so glad AG sees "inflation contained", otherwise, there'd be real cause for concern. I guess AG means inflation is contained to only the Fed, the banks, the GSEs, and Wall Street pumping the money supply. A colander would qualify as a more convincing "container". The only thing worse than not having a central bank is having a central bank.
Paul
(01/03/01; 12:42:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 44953)
Alan Greenspan must be really scared
"WASHINGTON -- Faced with a cooling economy, the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut interest rates Wednesday.
The central bank's move, slashing its key federal-funds target by one-half a percentage point, came four weeks before Fed policy makers were set to meet." - Wall Street Journal
Alan Greenspan must be really scared to go to this extreme. This is not an indication that Greenspan can engineer a soft landing, this is a glaring indication that the US economy is facing serious problems, most likely related to the debt explosion of the past ten years. If the economy slows down it is going to become increasingly more difficult to service outstanding debt.
Yesterday, the first trading day of 2001, both the Dow and NASDAQ declined ominously. Today's rally is one of the best examples of a sucker rally I've seen in years.
It appears as if 2001 is going to be a very interesting year, if nothing else. I hope we will all be able to prosper in spite of the financial turmoil that is likely to unfold.
Keep your eye on the gold price. A slowing US economy should lead to a declining dollar and that in turn should cause the gold price to rise.
Happy New Year,
Paul van Eeden
ORO
(01/03/01; 12:42:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 44952)
Fed begins supplementing Treasury and Fannie+Freddie
Obvious panic at Greenspan's map room.
Amazing instantaneous response to the instantaneous 7.5% drop in cost of short term Fed Funds. Response is an initial 11% on the Nasdaq, 16% on the Nasdaq 100. 3.5% jump in the Dow. Obviously we have a short squeeze not unlike the October 1998 mother of all short aqueezes.
Could it be that cost of funds to the bidders at the stock market is the Fed Funds? Meaning that bank trading desks are doing the buying?
Nasdaq 100 jumped vs. the five year note rate by 20%. The Nasdaq composite went up 15%, and the Dow is up 6% vs the note's interest rate. (The five year note is the first measure of returns alternate to stocks. Thus an investor putting funds into stocks is giving up the available return on a 5 year treasury - implying he foresees a rise in the stock greater than the interest paid by the treasury.)
To put things in perspective, the ND 100 has fallen 66% intraday relative to the 5 yr note yield from its high on the year in March. The SP 500 was down 39% by the same measure from its relative high at the same time. This provides a picture of the drop in investor expectations of future returns after the discounting rate is taken out of consideration.
Not to be outdone by the stock market, the bond market reacted with its own idea of happy times - higher rates.
I was just working out my estimates for projected bottoms in the Treasury papers. I had 5.37% for 30 yr, 4.86 for the 10 yr, 4.53 for the 5 yr with alternates 4.67 and 4.40. Since the Fed panicked, I can't be sure those rates would all be reached. The 30 year definitely did get there and then some, the tenner hit it on the dot as well, and the fiver hit 4.71, though not all the way to my favored 4.53% projected bottom value.
Looks like mortgage rates held back on continuing their trend. It may now be time to refinance if you have a high mortgage rate.
Journeyman
(01/03/01; 12:36:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 44951)
Only because he's a so-called "leader" @Pandagold (01/03/01; 10:05:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 44936)
Hi Panda!
Actually, there are two un-worthy reasons I "picked on" Saddam.
1. He's a so-called leader, nearly all of which these days don't pay their way. They don't risk their lives in defense of their group. Not even for their own dominating ruling oligarchy, let alone the taxpayers who's bones they pick. I could as easily have used Slobodan Milosevic or Bill Clinton -- or Tony Blair.
2. People tend to dislike Saddam because of said Brit-American propaganda -- and thus using Saddam tends to reinforce my point rather than detract from it.
AS I said, unworthy reasons, chosen to shortcut to a quick point.
Whoa, there Panda. I'm mostly on your side in this. You will not find me excusing modern "leaders" their sins, no matter who their victims are.
And I'm aware of the Rothschild scam after Waterloo. Etc. It's just that "they" don't have nearly that control or power anymore. Things are too complex. There are too many players now days and too many wild cards can bollix up their plans.
Further, it was "their" ancestors who, for relatively short-term gain threw not only us, but their progeny into the paper furnace we're burning in. They had no coherent long-term plans that have held-up very well that I can see.
Globalization, yes -- if done "right." But of course it isn't and won't be. Too many competing "mafias." Who won't give up power. Look how long it took to get the euro. And true "union" is still at least decades away.
Regards,
Journeyman
YGM
(01/03/01; 12:15:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 44950)
Not the Dollar....
Oil Costs/Shortages (very possible) & Hedge Books...
Two keys to rate cuts...IMHO...Buy Physical and soon, cause they're (Cartel & Fed) out of control now.....YGM
YGM
(01/03/01; 12:06:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 44949)
Selling The Rally...
Is it the PPT?
Maybe they are getting back on-side, but you can bet your boots alot of others will also sell into the rally....I'll be surprised if this Excuberence lasts 48 hrs....YGM.
miner49er
(01/03/01; 12:01:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 44948)
report from the ground...
used to be... certain times of the year you'd find the guys all standing around a radio in the break room, ears turned to the speaker, brows knitted, listening... listening to the intense moment of some championship game or match, for the next play, the next pitch...
right now, i've just finished observing several people (not just the guys anymore), all huddled around someone's computer, eagerly clicking 'reload' every few seconds to see how high we are now...
i have heard several audible 'hurrahs' and applause coming from several areas of the office floor. i actually observed two guys give each other high-fives.
sometimes i long for a more simple time when such behavior was reserved for a no-hitter, or a bases-clearing homerun in extra innings.
at least mr. blade can go 'kill some ducks.' i... i will just resort to going to get another cup of coffee...
YGM
(01/03/01; 11:42:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 44947)
A CONTEST!!!
Is what we need......
"Name That Fund"...LTCM, Tiger, Princeton.....Which Fund will go next. It undoubtably will be BIG and WILL bring Wall St to it's knees.....This in my opinion is the greatest fear of the Fed. The dollar is still at great strength, but somewhere there's more than a few Derivatives Traders out there sitting on (or add the 'h') "Razor Blades"
There's many out there w/o Delta safety.......YGM.
Knallgold
(01/03/01; 11:37:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 44946)
Paper decouples from physical-it is here!
-China opens new physical Gold market,next June(!) or so,this is now confirmed-Paper POG does not anticipate higher demand as it used to do (hey,there are only a billion humans!?)
-Stockmarket is in a serious bear market,no POG reaction exept down
-euro up,already close to parity,no POG reaction exept down
-and the most important thing,the Dollar has been hit hard lately and no POG reaction exept down
Investors,especially Goldbugs are totally clueless.If they would be used to FOA glasses,they could see it clear like Swiss rock crystals
We knew the Comex-POG didn't reflect real Gold demand for some time.But now,the Comex-POG has decoupled from the currency markets!!!It goes down with the Dollar!Comex paper Gold is not anymore an alternative to the $!The heat is on now on the physical market.The year of change...
YGM
(01/03/01; 11:32:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 44945)
Rate Cut of Fed.....
Kinda like a "BANANNA" Republic move....
in Brazil to calm market jitters. Similarly lets some institutionals off the hook,"Temporarily"....Greenspans Airbus is flying on fumes.......YGM.
Mr Gresham
(01/03/01; 11:27:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 44944)
Uh-uh-uhhhh
Somebody was in trouble. Somebody's Delta got outa whack, I'll bet.
OK, who threw that spitball? Was it you, GS? You, JPM? DeutschBank, get back in your seat!
miner49er
(01/03/01; 11:25:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 44943)
never mind...
just got the rate cut newz...
Mr Gresham
(01/03/01; 11:24:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 44942)
Fed 50bp cut
http://www.bloomberg.com/welcome.html
Well, aren't we having fun!
Alan does love to play with his toys.
Hmmmm, save the markets? Or save the dollar? Eeeny-meeny-miny-moe.
Now we'll see. Now we'll see... (how long it works)
(Not long, says FOA, not long.)
YGM
(01/03/01; 11:23:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 44941)
Greenspan & Fed
Just Provided the Lift Off For Large Sucker Rally...
Half point rate cut....Whoopee paper lift off. Now the debt load can become even more "Irrational"....Fools rush in and
"wise money gets an escape route".......YGM.
miner49er
(01/03/01; 11:19:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 44940)
go look at the djia/naz/sp500 in the last few minutes
vertical ascent... i'm dizzy... who's up to mischief?
TheStranger
(01/03/01; 10:55:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 44939)
Protect Your Savings
Gold is now within a few dollars of its 52-week low. Ten-year U.S. government bonds are within a few basis points of new 52-week highs. The Dow Jones Utilities Index was at a new all time high on Friday. Clearly, all of this is happening because the popular big money bet these days is as follows :
"There is no inflation danger, but, to be sure things stay that way, Greenspan has over-tightened credit and thrown the economy into a recessionary spell which, if anything, will mean slight deflation and lower interest rates in the months ahead."
If you believe this scenario, then you must not be a buyer of gold. Like the rest of the crowd, you have been dumping technology stocks and buying government bonds, utilities, etc. Like the rest of the crowd, your portfolio is perfectly up to date...perfectly up to date, that is, and headed for a fall.
Yes, there has been a lot of discounting on Main Street recently. And such things as Christmas mark-downs and fire-sale PC prices are bound to impact inflation indices for a while, at least.
But money has not been tight. Money has been loose, VERY loose. This is why, despite six Fed rate hikes and constant reassurances by the "experts" that inflation is not a problem, price indices last year recorded their biggest jump in a decade.
From Wall Street to Washington, almost no one will believe it. Take yesterday for example. When the National Association of Purchasing Manager's report of economic activity was released, it was accompanied by the biggest prices-paid component increase in five months. Yet the media uniformally dismissed the number as being immaterial; so great is the public's faith in Alan Greenspan and his delusive rate increases.
I have argued in these pages for the past two years that higher interest rates would not, could not, deter this economy from its rendezvous with inflation if money itself was allowed to grow out of sight. When I started, the U.S. dollar was experiencing a mild bout of deflation. At that time, no one in this room would agree that things were about to change. But, since then, quarter by quarter, inflation in America has climbed steadily back up to where it is today.
Now, even skeptics admit there is no quick fix in store for higher energy prices. For two years, they argued that energy didn't count like it used to. It simply wasn't as pervasive as before. Yet, now we are all being inundated with stories about companies cutting operations due to higher energy expense and products at the supermarket being downsized, again because of higher energy prices. The list will get bigger, believe me. Recent monetary data prove conclusively that this Fed does not have the courage to slam on the brakes.
Believe what you wish. But, if you are to protect your savings in the year ahead, you must understand this simple word of advice. Money is loose in America again. Inflation is on the rise, and it is destined to get a lot worse before it gets any better.
Thanks
Knallgold
(01/03/01; 10:54:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 44938)
TrailGuide,BlackBlade
TrailGuide-maybe your magnificent teachings has finally allowed us to walk the golden trail for ourself,I mean there are now too many footsteps visible to miss the way,like in a catalytic chemical reaction:without the catalyst,no reaction at all.Adding the magic,often precious metals containing catalyst,the reaction kicks off easily,and in the end you'll rediscover the catalyst unchanged.
The only thing different with you is that you might have grown a few grey hairs extra because of us (smile)
BlackBlade-thanks!I hope you are right as I thought to read Swanepoel's own words of worry on "how to explain it to our investors".As if Chase warned him not to close the hedges.But you are right,there is no reason to own a hedged HGMCY,except the stolabars sales program.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(01/03/01; 10:15:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 44937)
Trurl (usagold.com msg#: 44920) -- Splendid!
"...the physical vs. paper gold controversy. During normal polite times, they may certainly appear similar. The net sum of paper shorts and longs may be a reasonable, manageable number. But the general assertion at this site it to not count on this remaining true during the times you really, really want the attributes of gold."
Yes, indeed! As I have tried to stress before, if a person is looking for a diversification or safe haven outside of their national currency, a position in paper gold (derivatives) amounts to little by way of accomplishing the objective as it is only a variation of the paper debt-based theme. Only physical gold is free from the risk of default or bad national monetary policy.
Get real. Get gold.
Pandagold
(01/03/01; 10:05:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 44936)
Journeyman - Why pick on Saddam?
YOUR QUOTE:
"And likely as not, those who SHOULD suffer retribution will escape largely unscathed. Saddam, while his people's children starved, almost certainly never missed a single banquet or meal."
From where do you get your reasoning that Saddam does not care about his children, his people? That is the picture put out by our media, time and time again (US and British).
Yet people who have got close to him, and who have no ulterior motives or axe to grind, do not see him this way.
Why did he really invade Kuwait? Why did Galtieri (Argentina) invade the Falklands? Why do some of the other Arab Sheiks not like Saddam? Why are the people of Iraq prepared to suffer again and again this humiliation we meet out to them? Why are so many Palestinians prepared to die without direction from their government? Why do they love and respect Saddam? Find the real answers not the ones put out by media and ‘backed’ historian writers.
Just because Britain, and some other countries sold their soul for some pieces of silver, there are others who are prepared to die to preserve their culture, and their heritage, and their beliefs. They do not want to be the 51st 52nd 53rd state of the US, official or unofficial, or any other international entity that operates via the US.
Did the US president, at the time, care about those poor wretches he sent into the hell-hole of Vietnam. Most of them were almost children and many from deprived areas. The man America made president skulked in Britain while they fought and died. Then he abused his office by screwing around with a young intern, beside all the other shenanigans
both he and his wife got up to.
Yet, just because the people behind the scenes printed money like there was no tomorrow (besides other financial manipulations) creating an artificial prosperity, he gets lauded as though he is a saint. Now he will be proclaimed the great peacemaker, no doubt.
From what little I know to make judgement, Saddam is no better, nor no worse than most, but from his feelings for his people - and the whole Arab people, he is probably better than many.
To make judgements on what the media tells us is probably the greatest disservice we can do yourselves. If you believe
the media is 'free', then what else can I say. Your mind is closed.
When our media tells us so and so is 'bad' - ask yourself one simple question, especially when they keep pressing the point - Why do they really want me to believe that?
Remember, at the close of world war 2, your most revered and decorated general - Patton, when he was able to get close to his enemy, and also 'see' who was really about to benefit from the war said " I think we fought the wrong people" Now here was a man who had given his all, and was closer to the truth than anyone. Oh! by the way, a few weeks later he was dead - from an 'accident’ of all things - how surprising
Randy (@ The Tower)
(01/03/01; 09:21:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 44935)
Clarification to readers of my previous post
In the event that it seemed strange that I referred to U.S. trade deficits for both OPEC and euro-land that were "on pace" for annual shortfalls of $48 billion each for a year that is ALREADY over, please understand that trade figures have only been released thus far through the month of October.
-------
FOA...I enjoyed your latest contribution to the Gold Trail. Thank you again for all that you do, for the time and effort expended in selfless assistance to the greater understanding of your fellow man. Long health and happiness to you and all those near and dear.
Randy (@ The Tower)
(01/03/01; 08:59:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 44934)
Currency and trade
From yesterday's article on the summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council regarding the unification efforts for the currencies of the six states Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates, it was reported "The group has an $18 billion trade deficit with its largest trading partner, the European Union."
While recognizing that this group represents just a subset of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, it can be said that OPEC sells to the world but does a bulk of its own shopping in Europe. America is on pace for an annual trade deficit with OPEC reaching $48 billion, and America also does considerable shopping in the euro area, too, also running a trade deficit on pace for $48 billion for the current year.
It is not lost on officials of other countries that the U.S. has enjoyed the privilege of simply creating the international manna from the new issue of U.S. Treasuries while others must labor to earn these same currency units. With the U.S. running perennial trade deficits, on the whole it should seem apparent that the primary utility of our excess dollars shipped abroad is found in its use for reserves and for the international repayment obligations on past debts.
On point, when looking at current human productivity and the balance of modern trade rather than the debt-legacy of our fathers, the deck is stacked toward euro strength and dollar weakness as we move forward. If various nations such as those seen here are earning dollars but spending euros, you can see where a falling dollar exchange rate on the forex market might be ill-tolerated by those in a position to "name their price". In the end, it is goods and services rendered that pay for goods and services consumed. Meanwhile, the currency units are just digital blips that simply keep time to the music of commerce among the international orchestra, and can change suddenly "for" or "against" your position depending on external factors and on your own reliance upon these blips. Do not mistake these blips as equivalents to real wealth.
Gold is the single internationally-respected hard asset that moves freely in financial circles to provide a liquid reserve (savings) alternative -- protecting its holders from bad management of, or fading confidence in, their own local currency. Call Centennial to find out how easy it can be to...get real. Get gold.
Gold Trail Update
(01/03/01; 08:50:38MDT - Msg ID:44933)
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
Orville Goldenbacher
(01/03/01; 08:41:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 44932)
Saddam is dead(?), long live Uday!!!
http://www1.sky.com/news/world/story7.htm
could it be????
Better get ya some more gold, the price is sure right!!!
miner49er
(01/03/01; 08:28:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 44931)
Journeyman - #44929
Excellent, excellent... thank you for the little slap around the ears. Point well taken!
Best regards,
m49r
Pandagold
(01/03/01; 08:10:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 44930)
Face up to reality
My dear Sir Black Blade, and others, who keep filling your minds with this clap-trap put out by Reuters et al, and the two bit analysts that abound. Even if they new the truth, they would not tell you.
I know you mean well,I also know you don't really believe them, but so many of you are like drowning men ready to grasp at any straw, even though you know it won't support you.
Many of you know the reasons in your heart of hearts, just as I do, why gold is not moving, or going to move ( and we are not talking of a few dollars here and there). Yet you keep rehashing this bullsh*t which you don't believe. This is masochism pure and simple.
Face up to reality. When gold does make a move, it will appear to be for no apparent reason (though some will be suddenly found) - no crisis. It will be slow and gradual - and, in its small way, volatile. But then it will be good for trading.
Meanwhile, wait for those dips, study the quality gold mining stocks carefully, get to know them like the back of your hand, study their trading ranges. Buy on the severe dips and accumulate.
With the best mines (costs)trimmed to the bone and expanding, free from deadwood, gold won't have to move much to make them VERY profitable. Good mines also have a habit of taking care of their shareholders, so besides capital appreciation there will be good dividends.
So come on fellows - stop letting your enthusiasm, and excitement rise and fall with each little movement, or analysts forecast, or GATA statement. The people who are running the show, and controlling that psychological metal, and real money of the first and last resort are far more powerful than you could even begin to get your minds to imagine.
Ian Fleming was (probably on more than one occasion) asked if he didn't think he had made his stories of 007 and the secret services a little bit far fetched, and that people found them a bit hard to believe. His reply was that if he (ex-secret service) told everything that went on - the real truth, they would have been absolutely, unbelievable.
The same can be said about what, and who, is moving this world.
Journeyman
(01/03/01; 07:58:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 44929)
Free psychoanalysis @Black Blade, Journeyman, MANY
Hi Black Blade, Journeyman, MANY!
I've been meaning to write this for awhile, but I can procrastinate with the best.
There are many of us here who see "the system" as evil and secretly rooting for retribution, though we well know that we will likely be one of the vicitms of any retribution -- and many of our innocent countrymen & women, guilty of nothing more than a little facilitated (or possibly induced) ignorance and a bit of laziness.
And likely as not, those who SHOULD suffer retribution will escape largely unscathed. Saddam, while his people's children starved, almost certainly never missed a single banquet or meal.
But there's a deeper problem with hoping for justice and retribution where they are due, and that is, like other forms of revenge, it tends to cloud one's judgement. One tends to excerpt the bad things that are happening to the perceived miscreants and project them indefinitely into the future --- and to ignore little details --- like, for instance, most Iraqis hate Saddam even worse than some of us dislike Clinton.
If we're bett'n folks -- and as you may know, from my viewpoint we ALL are whether we know it or not -- this can skew our bets from cool, rational probabilistic prognostications toward betting against the SOBs.
While emotionally satisfying, it can easily lead to economic suicide.
I say this as much to remind myself as anyone.
Regards,
Journeyman
Black Blade
(1/3/2001; 6:30:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 44928)
Weak dollar, stocks seen lifting gold--but not yet
By Sara Marani
LONDON, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Falling U.S. equity markets and weakness in the U.S. dollar have so far failed to inject life into the gold market but analysts said on Wednesday that a positive knock-on effect could come soon. ``Gold's weakness has been a bit surprising -- we expected the upside to be capped but not the downside to be tested,'' said Merlin Marr-Johnson, analyst at HSBC. On Tuesday, the NASDAQ index saw losses of seven percent after manufacturing data reinforced fears of rapidly slowing growth in the United States and triggered a dollar sell-off. ``The dollar is weakening, the scope for an interest rate cut is here, and all this cannot be positive for the U.S. stock market,'' said Frederic Panizzutti at MKS Finance in Geneva. ``Investors will be repatriating flows and since most of the money invested in the U.S. is from Europe, it will come back to Europe and contribute to pushing the euro higher.'' The euro hit five-month highs against the dollar on Tuesday, rising as far as $0.9544, while the Australian dollar broke through the U.S.$0.56 level to set four-month highs. Once producer and consumer currencies strengthen, gold is more affordable for non-U.S. buyers and it is less attractive for producers to sell. ``The strong euro and Aussie have had a positive impact on physical demand, but the problem is that the physical buying interest was matched with non-physical selling which was not really currency related -- probably some long liquidation -- and that's why we didn't have the normal schoolbook reaction,'' explained Panizzutti.
RECOVERY DOWN THE ROAD
While traders and analysts agreed gold would never manage to recapture fully the safe haven status it once enjoyed, they expected to see some evidence of a flight to quality soon. ``While more liquidation and more downward pressure is possible short-term, we still have positive consumer confidence here (in Europe) so at some stage we expect this to have a positive impact on the gold price,'' said Panizzutti. The spot bullion price was expected to dip to around $260 a troy ounce before ticking back up towards $275-$280 at the end of the first quarter. ``We still have a positive year view and conditions for gold look better this year than last. Conceptually we're looking at about $280 for the quarter,'' said HSBC's Marr-Johnson. At 0940 GMT gold was quoted at $268.70/$269.20 a troy ounce, just up from Tuesday's New York close at $268.65/$269.15. Another factor which could contribute to an upturn after a possible price dip was Indian demand. India is the world's largest gold consumer and traders said many buyers were waiting for the price to fall to $265. ``Most of the Indians are looking to buy at $265 and once that happens things should pick up,'' said one trader. The 1999 agreement between 15 European central banks to limit gold sales and gold lending could also support the price, but only once demand shifts up a gear. ``The accord is a very positive step if we are in a demand market but we are still in a supply market and the tightening effect they (the banks) tried to create hasn't happened,'' said one analyst. ``If we move into the higher demand market, anticipated at the time of the accord, then the price will pick up.''
Black Blade: That does it! I'm going to go kill some Ducks! Later.
Journeyman
(1/3/2001; 6:24:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 44927)
Good thinking, excellent context @Trurl (1/3/2001; 3:56:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 44920)
Definitely a context worth developing and refining! Maybe you should become an economist -- or audition to play one on TV!
High regards,
Journeyman
Black Blade
(1/3/2001; 6:20:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 44926)
Everything Favors Higher Gold Prices, but....
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm
US Dollar is crashing against most currencies, markets overnight flounder, futures are lower for all indices, and yet - PMs sink lower. Curious isn't it? Very difficult to believe that there is no "Malign Forces" holding down PMs.
Pandagold
(1/3/2001; 6:04:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 44925)
He (they) who have the MOST gold, make the rules
The price of oil is dropping after the sudden surge upwards.
In spite of the recent bloodshed in the Middle East, and the apparent intransigence of Israel, they are still 'hopeful’ of 'Creepy Clinton' pulling it (a so called peace deal)off.
Saddam has had a sudden 'heart attack'
Oh hum. Isolated incidents? Not on your Nellie.
Remember what I have always pushed home - He who has the (most) Gold makes the rules. Who has the most gold? The USA? think again, and again, and again.
Who do you think has been soaking up all this gold that has been dumped over the past decades? Don't be fooled by which country appears to be buying or selling. When you are international - every country is your home - but you owe allegiance to none.
The oil price was raised partly to put pressure on getting 'the best deal' they could at the table. The recent flair up of bloodshed in the M-East was likewise.
All parties know there is some settlement in the cards, but it is NOT Clinton who has been doing the talking. Only MONEY talks. If you believe otherwise - quit now, you've no chance in this dog eat dog world.
If any deal is done, you can bet your bottom dollar that a lot of financial assurance has been given, a few palms have been greased, a few Swiss bank accounts stocked up (we are not talking about the odd million or two). And, with whose money? - YOURS, and mine, and all the other poor wretches of this world. Money that could have built hospitals, educational establishments, better roads, and kept down crime, or raised the standards of those third world countries that have been bled to death. But the real price has yet to be paid by the common man - the bill is about to arrive.
If it isn't done, watch the price of oil move up again. Watch for a few other horrors as well, like a few leaders being toppled in the M-East.
The pressure is on now; something is about to snap. You can feel it at every turn. We have to thank, in no small way, those raggy a*sed stone throwing Palestinian 'Davids' who have, with little moral support - and none from the media, stood up to Goliath armed with technology and armour that could outclass by far, especially considering size - a land of six million people, and with no natural resources (not a drop of oil), any other power in the world.
So, if a deal IS done, give not one drop of credit to Clinton, though the media, for its own ends will push the world to believe that.
Journeyman
(1/3/2001; 5:58:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 44924)
Deregulation???? @ALL
The media, including CNBC who SHOULD know better, continually explains the power debacle in California was the fault of "deregulation, and in fact the teaser from which I excerpted the clip below, repeated at least four times, included that PG&E was in trouble because of "deregulation:"
- In an interview with Ron Insanna, the Chairman of P G & E, the California
electric power utility that's under extreme pressure because of power
shortages, revealed the cause: ~"We have to pay $.40 per kilowatt-hour but
because of regulations, we can only charge $.05 for it when we sell it to our
customers." If the situation isn't remedied, P G & E will be bankrupt within
six weeks. -CNBC, Jan. 2, 2001, ~6:47PM EST
Does this sound like deregulation to you?
Regards, J.
SteveH
(1/3/2001; 5:54:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 44923)
Inheriting the ESF, a hot potato
http://www.newaus.com.au/us174gold.html
So, who would want to inherit the ESF when it is now more widely known that said organization or fund (or whatever) is involved in the manipulation or alleged manipulation of commodities (to wit: gold, silver?) and possibly S&P futures?
If I were the incoming administration with a lawsuit hanging over my Treasury department, I would want to clean laundry quickly and put the blame squarely where it belongs.
I would think the job of gold afficiandos would be to keep the pressure on this particular suit and alleged dealings of the ESF. Only in that manner could one assure oneself that they had done everything that can be done, to set the gold market straight.
Tally ho Gata!
Black Blade
(1/3/2001; 5:10:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 44922)
The Grasshoppers Learn About Procrastination and the Costs of NIMBY
Gas suppliers refusing sales, PG&E unit says
The cash and credit squeeze created by the electricity crisis in California has prompted 15-20 natural gas suppliers to decline to sell gas to the company beyond current commitments, said Pacific Gas & Electric Co., a unit of PG&E Corp. The California utility also said it could have kept gas prices down if the California Public Utilities Commission (PUC) had permitted the company to build more in-state storage and lock in capacity rights on various pipelines that deliver gas to California. The company said Friday it had purchased enough gas for its customers' projected use in January, as long as temperatures do not drop, increasing demand above forecast levels. The utility delivers natural gas to 3.8 million customers, including residential consumers. January gas bills will be 60% higher than December, the company reported. Market prices in January are expected to reach record levels, following dramatic increases in November and December due to cold weather and record demand by natural gas-fueled power plants. The average residential bill will rise to $125 in January, compared with a December average of $77. In January 2000, before prices began to spike, the average residential bill was $50.
Gordon R. Smith, CEO of the utility, said it will not be able to finance the high cost of natural gas spreading it out over several months because of the company's present financial position, resulting from the "outrageous" wholesale electric prices the company is paying on behalf of its customers. "What should be noted is that many of the companies who have declined to sell us natural gas are the same companies who own power plants in California and are currently charging as much as 30 times what it costs them to generate the power," Smith said in a prepared statement.
If Pacific Gas & Electric Co. had not taken mitigating measures such as storing gas in the summer, average January residential bills could have been as high as $162, the company said. In the past, the PUC discouraged investment in gas pipeline assets. If the utility had been able to take other mitigating steps, customers' bills would have required a small surcharge, but compared to today's astronomical market prices, the surcharge would have seemed minuscule, it said. Pacific Gas and Electric also reported it has asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to impose price caps on gas delivered to the California border and points within the state. And the company has requested FERC to suspend contracts between El Paso Natural Gas Co. and its wholly owned affiliate that Pacific Gas & Electric Co. alleges have allowed those companies to manipulate prices in the California gas market.
Moody's Investors Service weighed in on the controversy surrounding the creditworthiness of PG&E Corp. and Edison International. These utility holding companies accumulated more than $8 billion in debt from unrecovered purchased power expenses in California. The investor-owned utility holding companies were also under a threat last week that Standard & Poor's would downgrade their ratings to "junk" bond status pending action by the California Public Utility Commission.
Black Blade: "And the Grasshoppers danced, sang, and played all summer…" These leeches just don't help themselves at all. They knew this day would come, yet they procrastinated and figured on stealing from others. Let em’ freeze in the dark! Sounds cruel? How else will they ever learn?
The US Department of Justice filed suit against Duke Energy Corp. on behalf of the Environmental Protection Agency, charging that eight of the electric utility's power plants illegally released massive amounts of air pollution. The DOJ alleges that Duke Energy violated the Clean Air Act by making major modifications to all of its coal-fired power plants in the Carolinas without installing the equipment required to control smog, acid rain, and soot.
Black Blade: Yeah, shut down those big bad polluters! Besides, who needs all that electricity anyway?
auspec
(1/3/2001; 4:59:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 44921)
Clinton Lovers: Read No FurtherA Multi-Cultural Farewell Salute To
A Multi-Cultural Farewell Salute To
The Child King
Dear Bill,
Thank you William Jefferson Clinton for a most entertaining eight years of Presidential Capers. The 22nd amendment to the Constitution, our country's current favorite, is still in effect and so you must now vacate what we used to call the White House. It will need to be properly cleaned and whitewashed for your predecessor's progeny's prestigious and pristine possession. There is little doubt that you have left your mark (stain) (scent) on this esteemed estate and you will, unfortunately, not soon be forgotten. The State of the UNIONS has never been so public or sleazy. We have been contacted by multiple international citizens that eagerly join us in this celebration of the termination of your tenure. The Nations ARE United and we extend to you these heartfelt and earnest, global messages:
French - Finalment il est parti! On en est enfin de`barasse`s!
Portuguese- Ainda bem one vais embora!
Thailand - Kob - Kun!
Philippine - Sa lamat umalis na!
Romanian - Bine ca au plecat!
Italian - Finalmente se ne va!
German - Gehe zum teufel!
Polish - Dziekuje oni poszli!
Spanish - AM__!
Ebonics - Get to steppin!
Dutch - Ga naar de vaantjes!
English - Good………….……Mr. President. Good Grief!
Goodbye! Good Riddance!
There has been much speculation as to what you will do, at such a young age, to wile away the hours/days while you patiently await a post-Presidency Noble Piece (spelled right) Prize, of which your subtle lobbying efforts are sure to pay off. Could we offer a few second career suggestions for your consideration? You do have vast talents, contacts, and experiences upon which to draw, and it would be nice if they finally could be tapped
Suggestions:
1. The Robert Rubin School of Arkansas Economics needs a Dean of
Student AFFAIRS. Experience required, yours should suffice. You could in fact, be a bit over qualified, but RR can fix most anything.
2. How about starring in a komic strip called Klintoon? Actually a
Kontinuation of the last 8 years' debacle. Reruns only will be required,
PLEASE.
3. You might consider becoming a fundraiser for the American Conservation
Union. You and your Boss (Ms.) are the best thing that ever happened to
them. How is that little matter of their audit progressing?
4. Please spend some time apologizing to your not-ready-for-prime-time
apprentice, Algor, for blowing his chances to also become "One of our
greatest Presidents". You screwed up the quid pro quo. That was some
real teamwork boys, the folks back home in Arkansas And Tennessee are
real proud of you two. DelusionAl just needs a few more cycles of The
Lanny Davis School of Endless Repetitive Spin and maybe he won't give
up so easy next time. Did he sleep through too many of his Saturday Night
Live assignments? Poor Al had to pretend he hardly knew you, Bill, after
all your selfless years of service.
5. Lobbyist for the New World Order - unless that is getting a bit stale and
tiresome. You and Pinocchio have more in common than just the nose
complications. Those strings seem like they could be a bit annoying?
6. Selling franchises of the Ken Starr Emission Inspection Stations. Cost-Up
to $55 Million per inspection. You cannot run a VRWC {Vast Right Wing
Conspiracy} on a shoestring budget.
7. You could do tobacco ads on TV and expound on the benefits of not
inhaling or taking personal responsibility for your actions.
8. How about pooling your resources with O.J. to jointly get to the bottom of
Nicole and Vince Foster's untimely deaths?
9. You could just totally retire as the Founding Father of Illegitimate
Presidencies and Children. Put out to pasture so to speak (You must stop
drooling, Sire).
10. There has to be a immense demand for Hair Salons on airport runways
called- I'm Stylin' You're Waitin'! Number 42, you are clearly a pioneer
as well as an entrepreneur. The free markets await your participation and
vision.
11. Your plans for a friendly (chummy actually) takeover of Tyson Chicken
should fully succeed. You will be able to sort out all the right wings and
personally handle EVERY breast, leg, and thigh.
12. Clinton Crisis Counseling Clinic for abused women - mostly just ice
patrol!
13. Challenge Charlton Heston for NRA Presidency based on your starring
role in "The Ten Commanding Scandals". We have almost forgotten
who your Best Supporting Actress was.
14. You could mediate some more serious global problems like you did in
the Middle East recently with such great success. Move over Jimmy!
Next time if you will quit giggling every time you say the name Yassar
you might have more success.
15. Hollywood is much too obvious to even mention. Barbara Streisand is no
Marilyn Monroe, but on the other hand, she's no Monica or HRC either.
You could do a remake of "Trading Places" starring both you and
Hillary. Stand-ins could be used for the love scene, no problem there.
How about a series called "I BEG YOUR PARDON" which would
showcase { the hopefully coming} Bush Presidential etiquette?
16. Kofi is Kalling. Go feel his pain and take Ted Turner with you!
17. The PGA tour might accept you, but I doubt they will be willing to let
you keep your own score. You have assuredly hit on more ladies in the
gallery than even Gerald Ford did.
18. Much time can be spent simply waiting for the coming official
Republican apology for YOUR IMPEACHMENT. Check your e-mail
regularly. What were those guys thinking with this "rule of law"
nonsense?
19. Every Law School Library needs a Lexicon for multiple
meanings/interpretations/applications for two letter English words.
20. Your own weekly television show on FOX (in the chick house) TV,
government reforms oriented. Geraldo can lend a helping hand.
21. You will have time to write an autobiography. I should not
require much work and we can actually save you a lot of trouble
as one rather large word will suffice:
Coverupsubpoenabimbosnortscamliesmenacigarbluedressraisetaxesfbi-
Indulgentcheatdnaderivativesroselawfirms&lsaxpaulasexbentapistray-
wagdogembarrassdonnaeconomystupidiceovalmanagersjuanitashilloral-
danlassiterfilegatecopresidencyisdeceitbribestarrasprinfactorylucianne-
#^*!&%healthcaregrabjimguybubbletrialmcdougalsimpeachedlegacy-
spinpuppetdesksusanhoovernosedepositionragincajundenialwebster-
naftatrippstallnoshameparsebuddyteflonpredatorchinagateforcetroopers-
septumhousesenateoathespyronbrownmonicahedonicsgoldbuster-
internlipsmovingdraftsociopathsomaliadollyfelonyperjurerenemies-
rogerdodgerhush$stonewallsecretservicecocaineaddictivepersonality-
glibpollslincolnbedroomdysfunctionalOhellUgettheidea!
Please let me know if you need any more help on this project.
22. Find a new country in which to practice law. Sri Lanka comes to mind.
Alan Derschowitz could also stand an extended sabbatical. Why can't his
Doctors get his medication right? Is he the best you can do?
23. You will have beaucoup opportunities to try out your precious Executive
Orders in your various trailer park soirees. Hoping you do not experience
any more FEMA failures.
24. You could spend the rest of your life paying back favors for Lady Reno
TSE {Trouble Shooter Extraordinaire}. Will she remain on the payroll
indefinitely?
25. Ever thought of starting a Dream Team of X-Presidents? Andrew
Johnson, RMN, and WJC, not necessarily in that order. Looks like a
clear LEGACY from this angle, but you are welcome to write your own
history books and who could stop you anyway?
26. Permanent Dependent Counsel for your estranged wife, Scandal - in –
Waiting, Senatorium Hillary Rodham? Is she prolific or what? You
could play the scorned man next go- around, it worked so well for her.
Any truth to the rumor that Hill-Rod makes more than A-Rod ]
{unofficially of course}?
Global citizens are nervously holding their breath in anticipation of your next adventure; we will soon get to quit holding our nose. The world is beckoning you now, Mr. X-President; some call you Slick Willie, some Comeback Kid (Puleeeze NO), some Boy President, some Bubba, I now call you GONE! We're happy for you, Bill, but mostly we're happy for us. Sounds like the fat lady (with the beret) is vibrating her vocal chords. And no, Sir, you do not get to take the ESF {Exchange Stabilization Fund} with you!
A final word - Get some help somewhere.
Respectfully,
Auspec (FOB) (Farewell Old Boy) - Hope we haven't hurt your ego too much - - - Better get some ice on that.
Permission is hereby extended to copy, fold, bend, staple, mutilate, or forward this article. No additions please-I do NOT want to run the risk of offending our political leaders!
Trurl
(1/3/2001; 3:56:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 44920)
Debt is not fungible
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI&d=my
I would like to present some ideas for discussion. This started for me with the realization that maybe a good case could be made that literal hyper inflation has been on the scene for some years. I am not an economist, nor do I play one on TV; thus I'm ready to be corrected and instructed.
Consider this case for hyper inflation:
Look at a linear graph of the DOW30 over time:
Goto http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI&d=my and download the spreadsheet version. Note that the chart displayed is a log scale, and the line seems without understanding this to be a somewhat straight line. BUT-- Import the numbers into a spreadsheet and graph the data in a linear scale.
If you didn't know what you were looking at, you could swear it was a graph of the value of the old German mark during the Weimar Republic.
This got me thinking…
MK and CPM have had various contests to name a previously overlooked factor which, to put it mildly, may cause future problems.
There is no contest now, but here would be my entry: Debt is not fungible. "Everyone" treats it like it is.
The US dollar is currently a unit of debt. I do not yet have a graph to display, but I will make the assertion that if you make a graph of the sum of personal, corporate, and governmental debt over time, you would end up with an exponential growth chart far worse than even the DOW30 chart.
In this respect, it is unclear as to what the M1, M2, and M3 money supply numbers represent. If the dollar == debt, they are an expression of some liquid debt available for immediate use. Debt that is parked in traditional fiat "stores of value", such as money market accounts, bank deposits, etc. So. They say nothing of the magnitude of outstanding debt. They say nothing of the actual positions of the market players. They are only a strange sort of net sum of debt interpreted according to an earlier age when the dollar was not debt.
In measuring outstanding debt, I believe you need to be consistent. To measure the absolute value of outstanding debt, you need to add the value of all debt. Not add the sum of debt owned and subtract ( double negative? ) the debt owed. To do that would only be meaningful for individual participants, and only then if debt were fungible.
I have only discussed traditional debt denominated directly in dollars. Until recently, many tech companies liked to boast how their stock was a great currency for buying other companies. This is literally true. Or was true. Here is another source of "money" that isn't detected by traditional government measures, yet was being used as money. Perhaps stock isn't debt, and yet:
It has been observed that junk bonds bridge the gap between traditional stocks and bonds. Often they trade at a discount that reflects the current perceived prospects of how likely the company will be able to service the bond. That is, their market value varies based on the company's performance, just like a stock.
I'm not going to develop this thought further but I believe a good case could be made that with the fact that most stocks no longer pay dividends, but rather retain earnings, and with employee stock options and other derivatives, stock is more a debt ( future promises ) based store of value than is often acknowledged.
The bottom line in an individual example is this: Suppose I have a second mortgage from Bill for $10000, and Jill has a note from me, also for $10000. My net position is zero. Yet it is clear that I can't depend on Bill ALWAYS sending me the money when I need it to pay Jill. In normal, polite times, yes. As long as rates of change for various factors aren't too great, as long as Bill has a job, as long as the macro picture doesn't bump up against some limit.
In the bigger picture, each market participant may have a manageable position of debt owned vs. owed. Yet each market participant can at the same time have large debt positions which he is assuming are offset.
So picture this huge interconnected matrix of debt. Yet with all the types of debt issued by different players, with all the varying liquidity, with all the variation in likelyhood of actual payoff factors, in no way can debt be considered fungible. Thus each debt should be subject to continual revaluation.
Except things wouldn't work that way. That is why banks don't recognise losses, or mark their assets to market value. They must pretend debt is fungible in order to keep the game going.
Because "money" is officially measured as only some debt parked in certain accounts, and because people look at the net sum of debt owned less debt owed; and not the absolute value of debt outstanding, the magnitude of debt has been growing without causing alarm. Remember, the dollar is a unit of debt, thus indeed a good case can be made that the dollar has been in hyperinflation for some time.
The picture as presented here is very similar to the physical vs. paper gold controversy. During normal polite times, they may certainly appear similar. The net sum of paper shorts and longs may be a reasonable, manageable number. But the general assertion at this site it to not count on this remaining true during the times you really, really want the attributes of gold.
Comments?
Black Blade
(1/3/2001; 3:35:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 44919)
PGMs still look hot!
Palladium is up another $7.00 after being up $17.00 yesterday. Currently the metal is at $970.00/oz and counld easily surpass $1000.00/oz. from here. The Russians are out of metal. It's going to be fun if anyone at any of the exchanges try to collect some physical metal. This could be a good preview of the gold market once the metal is "allowed" to float free of manipulators hands.
Pandagold
(1/3/2001; 2:11:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 44918)
Our time WILL come - Bank on it!
Your faith, and patience, WILL be rewarded if, from now, you quietly add some GOOD QUALITY gold mining shares to your portfolio ON THEIR DIPS (and there WILL be MANY of those).
Ignore the negatives that will be put out ((and there WILL be MANY of those) - that's all part of the game.
Have a GREAT year!
Incidentally:- The GOOD QUALITY stocks are not hard to find - they have flashing neon signs all around them.
Black Blade
(1/3/2001; 1:34:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 44917)
DJ Asia Precious Metals: Spot Gold Regains Some Losses
And a bit of "Monkey Business" in the gold market.
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Spot gold edged a little higher Wednesday in Asia from its late New York level Tuesday, but it failed to recapture overnight losses. The metal saw heavy selling from funds Tuesday in New York, causing the metal to break technical support levels at $272.00 a troy ounce and $270.00/oz, a trader in Singapore said. Asian dealings were thin Wednesday in the absence of Japanese participants. Light short covering was believed to have lent support to the metal Wednesday in Asia. At 0643 GMT, spot gold was trading around $269.75 a troy ounce, up from its late New York level Tuesday of $268.90/oz. It remains, however, down 1.3% from its late Asian level Tuesday at $273.20/oz.
"Funds were big sellers last night," a trader with a European bank in Singapore said of the market late in New York. Market sentiment was cautiously bullish Tuesday in Asia with some participants expecting gold to benefit from a stronger euro and the Australian dollar. However, sentiment turned bearish following the sell-off in gold by fund managers. "Fund selling will continue," he added. "Price movement in the first three months of the year is usually indicative of price direction" of gold, the trader added. "With selling coming quite forcefully like yesterday...it will continue. The general trend (in gold) is weakish," he said. Spot gold, he said, could slide further to $265/oz later Wednesday. Dealings in the rest of the precious metals was negligible Wednesday.
-By Hamisah Samad, Dow Jones Newswires; 65-421-4834; hamisah.samad@dowjones.com
Black Blade: It's always the same old story – some unnamed trader/analysts says that some unnamed "fund" is selling. Then they continue to talk down gold, yet the fundamentals are somewhat Bullish for gold. Very curious indeed.
Black Blade
(1/3/2001; 1:25:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 44916)
Gold shares climb as prices fall
http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B0A46818C%2DF0B8%2D4551%2DADE6%2D3D589FC64365%7D
By Myra P. Saefong, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 4:15 PM ET Jan 2, 2001
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Shares of gold companies closed higher Tuesday, following three days of declines, lifted by a weakness in the stock market. Over the last nine months, "the gold index has tended to do very well on severe down days on Nasdaq," said Chad Williams, an analyst at TD Securities, who's based in Toronto.
Fundamentally, investors are discounting a flow of funds out of the U.S., he said, which will eventually result in a lower U.S. dollar, implying a later rise in gold prices. "Investors are betting on higher gold prices in the next few months or so," he said. In the equities market, the CBOE Gold Index (GOX) rose by 2.1 percent to 30.66 and the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) climbed by 0.7 percent to 51.78. Individually, shares of Newmont Mining (NEM) added 88 cents to close at $17.94 and shares of Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM) gained 38 cents to $6.38.
In other related news, Freeport McMoran Copper and Gold (FCX) said fourth-quarter operating results at its principal mining unit, PT Freeport Indonesia (PT-FT), will top previous estimates because of improved ore grades. Q4 output is expected to top 500 million pounds of copper and 875,000 ounces of gold. Shares of Freeport rose to an intraday high at $9, but closed at $8.31, down 25 cents. The company also announced that PT-FT resumed normal mining operations at its Grasberg pit mine. The unit had been operating at limited production over the last eight months as the government conducted a study related to environmental issues.
Gold futures prices fall
Gold futures prices fell, weighed down by weak demand for the precious metal over the holiday season. On the Commodities Exchange division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, February gold fell $3.60 to close at $270 an ounce after dropping to its lowest level in five weeks. March silver shed 4 cents to $4.595 an ounce. Physical demand and sales over the holiday season, especially out of India, were "relatively disappointing for precious metals prices," said Ross Norman, director at TheBullionDesk.com in London. Over on the supply end, Comex gold warehouse stocks were down 83,055 ounces to 1,701,224 ounces as of late Friday, and silver stocks rose 7,631 ounces to 93,983,167 ounces. Meanwhile, March palladium climbed $14.05 to $968.50 an ounce, while April platinum rose 80 cents to $608.90 an ounce. In other metals news, March copper slipped 3.15 cents to 81.15 an ounce. Tuesday morning's NAPM report revealed a slowdown in manufacturing, an indication that the need for copper in the industry may begin to fall Early Tuesday, London Metals Exchange warehouse stocks were flat at 357,225 metric tons.
Black Blade: Gold share movements tend to precede gold price movements. The apparent price manipulation gains steam as the physical price should have moved much higher in tandem with a weaker US Dollar and significantly higher demand. Meanwhile, Palladium continues to climb higher as it becomes ever more evident that the metal simply will not materialize out of Russia this year.
Mr Gresham
(1/3/2001; 1:17:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 44915)
Mr Moto's Money Report
http://www.piraz.com/wmre.htm
"All the money got nowhere to go..."
-----The Beatles
Black Blade
(1/3/2001; 1:15:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 44914)
Spot Price NG
http://www.piwpubs.com/gasprice.shtml
Most areas of the US have much higher NG prices than the quoted NYMEX contract prices.
Black Blade
(1/3/2001; 1:12:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 44913)
U.S. to Repay Millions to Exxon, Marathon
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20001229/bs/lawsuit_outerbanks_dc_1.html
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. government has been ordered to reimburse Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) and Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO) $78 million each for 19-year-old drilling rights they were denied because of an environmental protection law, lawyers said Friday. The U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington, D.C. on Thursday also ruled that the Department of Interior (DOI) is liable for interest payments, said Allan Ripp, attorney with Sidley and Austin who represented the companies. In 1981, Mobil Corp., and Marathon each paid the Department of Interior (DOI) $78.2 million for drilling rights off North Carolina's barrier islands, the Outer Banks. But in 1990, Congress passed the Outer Banks Protection Act which forbade drilling where the companies had paid for the rights. The DOI will pay Mobil which merged with Exxon in November 1999, and Marathon in January next year, Ripp said.
Black Blade: God forbid we become less dependent on foreign oil!
Mr Gresham
(1/3/2001; 1:10:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 44912)
TBTF, and more
http://csf.colorado.edu/longwaves/2001/msg00000.html
This is a fine, well-written essay on some of the excesses and malformed developments in US financial structures now...
Black Blade
(1/3/2001; 1:08:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 44911)
USD Growing Weaker!
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.htm
Euro is climbing again – up +$0.15 at $95.33, and USD index down -0.16 at 108.48. Would be nice to see some follow through on gold, but we may have to wait until the current Potomac Gangsters vacate the White House. Also, if the bright lights are pointed in the direction of those cockroaches, maybe we will see what has happened behind the scenes as the new Gangsters crack open the ledgers. Gonna get fun after January 20th!
Black Blade
(1/3/2001; 0:56:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 44910)
US NG Map with NG Prices!
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/business/DailyNews/wnt010102_naturalgas.html
For NG prices, follow the link above. First read the NG story. Then click where it says in detail at the bottom of the page, a map of the US will pop up, then click on your state to find out how much more you're likely to spend on NG this winter. I think it's a bit low on the prices in some areas, but then hope springs eternal.
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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