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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 9/3/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
SHIFTY
(09/03/00; 23:33:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 35975)
PPU Periodic Ponzi Update
Nasdaq 4,234.33 + Dow 11,238.78 = 15,473.11 divide by 2 = 7,736 PONZI
UP 118.90 from last week
The bubble grows!
Got Gold?
$hifty
:)
Believer
(09/03/00; 23:17:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 35974)
US confiscation during the 1930's
Does anyone know what the official positions of other countries around the world was towards gold confiscation in the 1930's? Mexico? Canada? European countries? others?
Was the US the only country that did this?
Black Blade
(09/03/00; 23:11:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 35973)
Thanks all. Great Day for Closing Out Summer!
HI-HAT (#35931): Your absolutely right! This petroleum crisis is coming. There's no doubt about it. This is not a man made crisis, but rather a simple case of available supply, the ability to process it, and the limited ability to produce it. The result is not only some inflationary event, but also rather an event that has the potential to seriously impact our lives, as we know it. I'm fortunate enough to live where I can live off the bounty of what nature provides. But most in this country don't have that luxury. The best that one can do for him/herself and family is to be prepared for any and all contingencies. Certainly it is wise to have supplies of the necessities no matter what, whether it is because of a family health crisis, employment crisis (layoff), national/international economic disaster, energy crisis, etc. If one were to be in an earthquake prone area for example, it would only be prudent to prepare for a serious disruption to one's daily life. What we are facing is more real and quantifiable than the perceived Y2K crisis. Either way you slice it, there is nothing wrong with the peace of mind than should there be any crisis situation arise, then it is possible to provide for one's self and family. I'm not what you would call religious by any measure (probably due to my extensive background in the earth sciences perhaps;-)), though I know that there are some religious folk here, they may be able to compare the necessity of preparation for such events to Jacob in Egypt and the 7 years of plenty vs. following 7 years of famine. Gold and Silver are a means to transfer wealth over the great divide, for portfolio insurance, and as the currency of last resort. Remember the persecuted in WWII and in Kosovo who had gold as opposed to those who didn't.
Shermag (#35937): DITTO! Once the government creates an agency, it becomes institutionalized. You just can't get rid of it. When it is no longer necessary, you need the pin it down and drive a stake through its heart. And even then it probably won't die. Look at the Bureau of Alcohol and Tobacco (BATF) in the US. It used to be the Department of Prohibition. Once alcohol prohibition was repealed, they became an agency in search of a mission (much as today). They are now nothing more than a bunch of incompetent "keystone cops". These crooks in the Federal Mafia only know to extort the proceeds of the productivity of the citizenry at the risk of creating a financial disaster. Power is more addictive than any drug (including tobacco, alcohol and heroin). They get involved where they are not wanted or needed. And they work to please the majority by stomping all over the rights of the minority for votes and to keep a grip on power.
Bonedaddy (#35954): I think that you and I are in somewhat similar career tracks. I have been involved in the oil and gas business in the past and keep my contacts there. However, I am now in the mineral and metals exploration and mining business. I think that it is clear to many that the developing situation in petroleum is more a fundamental case of supply and demand. The refining capacity is the major limiting factor. No matter how much oil is pumped, there is no more real refining capacity. With capacity at 95%+, any little disturbance at any refinery or necessary shutdown for maintenance will be felt. The only possible source of increased production is from Saudi where they have maybe 5% extra capacity. NG, however, will be the big story and is really being overlooked. The 3 year backlog for NG powered turbines, the EPA constraints on coal and oil powered power generation plants (along with their allotted EPA mandated "carbon credits"), and the political opposition to nuclear, wind, and solar power generation means that NG as the only viable source for "clean" energy will come under severe pressure as the production capacity and infrastructure simply does not exist. The only other sources of petroleum are from heavy oils, asphalt tar sands, biomass fuels, and oil shales. These are all much more costly for the production of petroleum. Prices for everything as a result are bound to be passed along to the consumer, resulting in inflation. It will be next to impossible to bury this (very real) inflation in so-called "hedonic statistics" and other manipulative bogus and increasingly meaningless CPI and PPI numbers.
Canamami: You're right. I hope all is well with Stranger. Perhaps he is on holiday. Perhaps when MK and the guard at the castle sent him an issue of "News and Views" they might want to put in a note to ask if he is well. I will be in his part of the country soon for a couple of days. Hope he's OK.
Buena Fe (#35969): Yikes! " …dry wine during a feast of tender lamb, garlic mashed potatoes, sautéed snowpeas/onions and peppers!" Talk about bringing out the Basque in me1 should add a little mint jelly and garlic bread to that! ;-)
All: Been a great day! Caught a 9 pound rainbow!!! Though it looks as if the pine nut crop will not be so good this year. Oh yeah, I let that monster go. I didn't want to, but I was only interested in stocking the freezer with pan-size. Besides, dove season is about to begin, and I love deep fried dove breasts.
Trail Guide
(09/03/00; 22:16:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 35972)
(No Subject)
law (09/03/00; 22:12:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 35970)
I'll discuss tomorrow.
thanks
Trail Guide
(09/03/00; 22:13:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 35971)
(No Subject)
Simply Me (09/03/00; 21:54:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 35967)
Hello Simply Me,
It just could be that it's being discussed with Mr. Clinton this week.
I have to go now.
Trail Guide
law
(09/03/00; 22:12:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 35970)
Trail Guide: Questions concerning your recent posts!
First of all, a very WELCOME BACK...it appears you had a most fruitful and enjoyable sojourn.
I too, have had a very busy summer and have not had the available time to continue my previous and consummate lurking and occasional posting...but I'm trying to catch up with the thoughtful and intelligent commentary of the many wonderful posters who frequent here.
My Questions:(08/20/00 msg#30)
You stated, "If this continues further, and now with the blessing of Europe, it's the paper longs that may be had as the shorts are let off the hook as the market is destroyed!"
After having read Howe's excellent commentary and also Murphy's, is it your implication that Deustch Bank is absorbing the derivatives in order to prevent Euro "bleeding" or is there another context to this statement?
Also: (09/03/00 msg#34) Concerning the "two ways (or a combination of both):"..."one or two government and /or private entities to pull the cord"...or..."The price of oil rises until price inflation can no longer be contained."
In the first way: Who would have the INTESTINAL FORTITUDE! IN THE "OPEN"! To "pull the cord"???
In the second way: Will the oil producers be able to withstand the political pressure that will undoubtedly be placed on them?
Strad Master: I was very disappointed in missing your concert...my problem---not enough network bandwith???
Black Blade: Very fine commentary!!!
ORO: Where are you??? Miss yours!!!
Rgds to ALL
Buena Fe
(09/03/00; 22:11:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 35969)
tin boxes and new beginnings
Ramble on my (our) friend TG, these discussions are as satisfying as a fine, dry wine during a feast of tender lamb, garlic mashed potatos, sauteed snowpeas/onions and peppers! (apologies to any vegetarians among us)
My mother holds a family hierloom (?) that I'm sure many here would enjoy to look at and ponder its story.....a small tin box......hand painted......that held her parents (my grandparents) mobile-wealth (gold jelewry etc.) as they fled Russia 1919.......everything else was lost....but what was in that box bridged all chasms and enabled a new beginning!
Trail Guide
(09/03/00; 22:07:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 35968)
Comment
Buena Fe (09/03/00; 21:24:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 35964)
(No Subject)
Trail Guide, do you percieve that the fuss over Jerusalem and its holy sites (et al) ??
Buena Fe,
Oh, It's all part of our travels through life. Jerusalem has and will always be a problem. I think it will be many generations before that area is finally worked out.
On your note about Britons and the Euro? Ha! Ha! Life is good! I'm getting closer to winning my dollar bet from Michael K.!
Thanks
Trail Guide
Simply Me
(09/03/00; 21:54:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 35967)
@ Trail Guide, RE: Is Euros for Oil a done deal?
Hello! Lovely day for a hike! Thanks for pointing out the unfamiliar flora and fauna along the way!
I have a question. Maybe I'm just dense, but the Euro and the Dollar cannot be equal world reserve currencies unless they can both be traded for oil, right? So, when was the Euros for Oil trade deal announced, or did I miss it?
Thanks for your time and your patience,
simply me
Trail Guide
(09/03/00; 21:48:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 35966)
Comment
Hello Buena Fe,
I'm sure you will keep your soul, my friend. I think mine is still safe,,,, I think? (smile)!
But, truly,,,, our gold bankers were only following behind a political wave that's changing things. No different than the hard money crowd that has tried to follow behind a gold move. One group was on the correct side and the other was on the wrong side. Nothing more.
How many local and international traders you know that would not have shorted gold for all they were worth if they knew how the game was being played? Even with a pro hard money stance, I bet they would have borrowed all the gold a CB would lend,,,,, and sell it down with the best of them. Further, how many big bankers do you think are personally very long physical,,,, even as they voice their evil projections of gold being worthless?
It's no different on the mining front. Most (but not all) investors went long shares or pumped money into the business for the leverage it could produce,,,,,, not the wealth preserving qualities so many of them proclaimed of bullion. The same as if someone tells everyone that will listen how their life will not be the same without a new ford,,,,, then he goes without a vehicle himself to allow the purchase of ford stock for himself?????? The examples of these traits are all over if we look for them. Not just in the possession of bankers!
Every so often a change comes along that makes old fashioned ideals and concepts look like something only a genius could understand. Yet, it's just recognizing where we are on the trail and doing what has to work instead of what will work the most.
Physical gold, as simple and stupid that holding may be,,,,, will outwork all the brains on our planet. Like keeping cash in a shoe box,,,, under the bed during the great 1930 bank failures,,,,, the leverage in gold today is a thousand times greater.
I ramble on.
Trail Guide
Buena Fe
(09/03/00; 21:46:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 35965)
Evolution?
http://www.faz.com/IN/INtemplates/eFAZ/docmain.asp?sub={AFE5369A-1A96-11D4-B984-009027BA226C}&doc={D8097BF3-6F80-11D4-B993-009027BA226C}
Life for Britons Beyond the Euro May Soon Be Coming to an End
By Christian Schubert and Bettina Schulz
Will Britons now finally be forced to join the euro? This debate has been re-ignited by outside sources. Japanese carmaker Toyota just announced its intention to renegotiate current contracts and stipulate in all new contracts that its British suppliers must invoice solely in euros. Otherwise it might consider closing its production sites in Britain.
The exchange rate has made Toyota's British production location no longer competitive. ...............
Buena Fe
(09/03/00; 21:24:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 35964)
(No Subject)
Trail Guide, do you percieve that the fuss over Jerusalem and its holy sites (et al) has any bearing or influence on the present currency/banking/power conflict before us? Men have fought over ideologies probably just as often as wealth, and the conflict over Jerusalem is truly much older than the present currency one.
Also, big shindig going on at the U.N. this week, 185 leaders form around the world comin to visit and all. I hear that Bono (of U2 music fame) is presenting a petition signed by some 21million people, supporting further debt relief for the poor.........go Bono GO! I'll vote for you.
Buena Fe
(09/03/00; 21:09:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 35963)
Trail Guide (09/03/00; 20:39:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 35961)
Further, I fully well expect the entire bullion banking sector to be frozen by official decree and settled in an understated cash price. Even as the physical trades onward and upward. This will devastate many mines, investors and hedgers but save the banks. We shall see!
"SAVE THE BANKS".......NOW I KNOW WITHOUT A DOUBT THAT YOU UNDERSTAND THIS CHANGE OF A LIFETIME BEFORE US!
HEY ALL...I'M GOING TO BECOME A BANKER.....I'VE GOT GOLD...HEE HEE.....ON SECOND THOUGHT I THINK I'LL KEEP MY SOUL.
Trail Guide
(09/03/00; 20:49:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 35962)
(No Subject)
Cavan Man (09/03/00; 20:30:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 35959)
Cavan Man, I do try to use a #2 iron but it's rough on my ego! (smile)
Trail Guide
(09/03/00; 20:39:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 35961)
Reply
Al Fulchino (09/03/00; 19:38:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 35953)
Trail Guide
I many have missed a response to the post below, I have searched a couple of times, but to no avail.. However....any comment would be appreciated.Al Fulchino (08/21/00; 19:16:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 35277)
--------------------------------------
Hello Al,
I often write or refer to the Comex and their future contracts. But in reality, I'm just as much pointing out the whole system. With that in mind:
Every month or so a very large collection of open interest builds up in a leading futures month. From almost as long as I can remember, the vast majority of these contracts are worked off thru either cash trading or cash settlement. This is what I refer to as "running from a contract" because
they don't want physical delivery. There is nothing wrong with some of this because a portion of these traders use the system as a hedge. But, Comex trading is nothing compared to the whole world of gold paper and all the physical traded doesn't require this much hedging. Obviously, by a wide margin most of these transactions do not involve the transfer of bullion. As I said before, by trading and settling in cash, this huge paper pool has created not only an illusion of physical demand but a much larger illusion of physical supply. It is never tested for price validity by settling in physical and does understate the true price of bullion. Therein is the system for controlling the perceived value of gold. In this format, supply can equal and overcome any demand built on currency inflation because the supply is a function of the same fiat liquidity.
But this is yesterday's news. That period is ending with this end run from oil! We should prepare for the destruction of our dollar gold markets now.
Further, I fully well expect the entire bullion banking sector to be frozen by official decree and settled in an understated cash price. Even as the physical trades onward and upward. This will devastate many mines, investors and hedgers but save the banks. We shall see!
thanks
Trail Guide
Buena Fe
(09/03/00; 20:39:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 35960)
black gold
http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/newsecon.htm#one
Saudi prince to meet Clinton for oil price talks
Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, Saudi Arabia's crown prince, was due to meet with US President Bill Clinton later in the week to discuss effective methods of lowering the international price of crude oil, according to local media. Prince Abdullah, who effectively runs the kingdom, arrived in the US to begin a one-month tour. The two leaders were also expected to discuss the Middle East peace process and Iraq. Mr Clinton earlier called on oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, to maximise their output capacity in a bid to calm escalating prices to somewhere between $20 and $25.
THINGS MUST BE GETTING INTENSE BEHIND THE CURTAINS......FOA, THANKS FOR YOUR CONTINUES CONTRIBUTIONS!
Cavan Man
(09/03/00; 20:30:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 35959)
Trail Guide 35952
You know I agree. How's your #1 Iron?
Chris Powell
(09/03/00; 20:27:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 35958)
Another blast from Frankfurt at market manipulators
http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/520
European central bank officials are waking
up to market manipulations in the United
States, and GATA is the alarm clock.
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:
gata-subscribe@eGroups.com
Journeyman
(09/03/00; 20:18:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 35957)
The truth shall set you free @Bonedaddy
"Know the truth and it will set you free. But first it will make you damn mad." -M. Scott Peck, M.D.
Regards, J.
OverHerd
(09/03/00; 20:13:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 35956)
Hello To All
Strad - BRAVO, BRAVO -Unfortunately I missed the beginning due to the need for an over 4k update. What I did get to hear sounded wonderful, thank you for this Sunday night treat.
MK - I hope Marie and her husband are feeling better and a speedy recovery is in the future.
Trail Guide - Did I miss any of your posts I noticed that 1-5 and 31-33 are not represented, I have a hard enough time understanding what is happening without missing puzzle pieces. I imagine as long as I continue to call Mr. Kosares on a periodic basis I will be safe.
SHIFTY
(09/03/00; 19:56:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 35955)
Kitco Chart
Gold up $1.20 tonight!
Bonedaddy
(09/03/00; 19:46:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 35954)
Black Blade
Keep it comming man! I am building my own archive of your posts on the energy situation. Your post are important to me for (at least) two reasons. First, I'm trying to warn my friends and family that inflation will soon ravage America again. And second, I loathe revisionist history. By printing your well sourced posts I am documenting the causes
for later generations. Let's face it, if Bush wins the election, the economy is still going to hell in a hand basket. The Clinton News Network (CNN) will be sure to hang everthing on the evil oil men, Bush and Cheney. It won't be long before the text books pick it up.
To others here at USA GOLD: Consider printing and filing some of the other excellent posts that appear here.
What if something were to happen to the on line archives?
Many of the statements made by BB, Another, FOA, Stranger, Aristotle, et al, will make much more sense after the pages have yellowed with age. Jessica Fletcher won't solve this mystery in a half hour program. And the carnage may last for generations. This is truly the information age, if we live in ignorance, it's only because we refuse to see. You shall know the truth, and the truth shall set you free.
Al Fulchino
(09/03/00; 19:38:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 35953)
Trail Guide
I many have missed a response to the post below, I have searched a couple of times, but to no avail.. However....any comment would be appreciated.
Al Fulchino (08/21/00; 19:16:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 35277)
Trail Guide
Could you flesh out in further detail the last two sentences of the paragraph from your most recent posting. And one other point, if the long and shorts *already* scramble to settle, why isn't there more price volatility. Thank you.
"A fraud? To say that the shorts have sold a metal contract that they cannot deliver against,,,,,, holds no more meaning than the fact that the longs cannot pay for metal they have contracted to take! As proof, watch as both sides always scramble to close out the majority of contracts for cash before they must settle. Betting on the price movements of something is not buying real wealth and running from a contract should prove it in the open to changing "Western Thinkers". Waiting for the shorts to be had, in order for your paper investments to gain value may be a long wait indeed. If this continues further, and now with the blessing of Europe, it's the paper longs that may be had as the
shorts are let off the hook as the market is destroyed!"
Trail Guide
(09/03/00; 19:38:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 35952)
Comment
Cavan Man (08/29/00; 18:36:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 35715)
Trail Guide/FOA...RE: ix What do you make of the OM bid for LSE as reported in the FT today?
Hello Cavan Man,
I think OM Gruppen would be a better platform for Euro Land trading. They are way ahead of the rest. It makes no difference who takes the lead politically, in developing future market infrastructure. What counts is the whole Euro thrust at the moment. Who buys or merges with LSE is not all that important, OM will be a European player whether alone or with another. So will London, they just have a hard time digesting that fact right now.
I bet shares will be quoted in Euros. What say you?
Trail Guide
SHIFTY
(09/03/00; 19:35:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 35951)
canamami
canamami: did you check his web site? I don't have the address but I remember he posted it one time with photo's and family stuff. There may be something there .
Trail Guide
(09/03/00; 19:18:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 35950)
Reply
Mr Gresham,
Ha! Ha! I never thought it would be picked up the way you saw it. Yes, I meant to imply that "it was driving bad money into circulation"! You are right, I put it in a context that could be easily seen as reversed. Hope everyone can understand it?
When I say Gresham law is not working; I wanted to point out how the dollar price is not reflecting this "good money" (gold) accumulation as it drives our fiat dollars into circulation. It's doing this because what we as Western Style investors assume to be gold is really paper.
Oh well, it's my poor use of thought direction.
Also,
I think the waiting is finally over. Everyone is accepting that crude is going higher and not from any fundamental reasons. This surge in perceived value of oil has become so blatant that it's obviously not just from demand. This will play out as a fall in all currencies relative to oil, but once it breaks $35 to $45 (or sooner) the dollar will begin to roll over. That's because producers are prepared to
bid the excess profits for both gold and Euros! By the time crude gets that high the US trade deficit will be truly explosive,,,,, and no one is willing to guess the impact.
Further, without a corresponding plunge in perceived gold values, using paper gold as the measure, the dollar will be going into it's first real free fall. I think Europe will allow a swift default cascade in gold banking, but only because they now have major buying support shaping up and it's being voiced from dollar reserve holders. That support will be aimed squarely at spot physical. A prospect that was not legitimate with cheaper oil.
We shall see!
thanks for your comments on my post, I'll try to word things a little more clearly.
Trail Guide
The Invisible Hand
(09/03/00; 19:01:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 35949)
Gold Confiscation in Europe
CoBra Too and 714,
Thank you for your reassuring words.
I'll definitely sleep better now.
canamami
(09/03/00; 18:57:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 35948)
Further Inquiry re the Stranger
Has anyone heard from the Stranger, in reply to private e-mails. I have sent him a couple of messages lately, but no reply. Let us hope and pray he is alright. His e-mail address still appears to be functioning, so that is a positive sign.
JMB
(09/03/00; 18:53:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 35947)
JavaMan
Thank you so much, Sir.
To Kitco: Sorry guys, my bad.
JavaMan
(09/03/00; 18:44:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 35946)
(No Subject)
CoBra(too), your " x-change some more of your respective currency for reality"... is a great one liner!
JMB, the link works for me so I think the good folks at Kitco are in the clear. If you go to the Trail page, hold down your Shift key, and Refresh your browser, all should be ok, no?
R Powell
(09/03/00; 18:38:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 35945)
deregulation of Chinese gold market
http://chinadaily.com.cn.net/bw/history/2000/08/b1-3gold.827.html
Hope I got this link right.
Article is called, Golden Comeback Launched
Happy holiday to all!
PS I found this while looking for news of the Chinese cotton crop which I've been discussing at cottontrading.com
JMB
(09/03/00; 18:37:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 35944)
I like a good mystery...don't you?
It's either a mystery or I'm getting older faster than I realize.
I hit the Gold Trail link as instructed...sure enough there was Trail Guide's latest post...but I'm feeling a little pang of hunger, so it's off to the local eatery for a bite...I return with a full belly (thank God...if Sen. Lieberman can do it, so can I) and much to my consternation the Trail Guide's post has been stolen. I'll tell you whom I suspect...KITCO, yep, JavaMan used Gold Brick's kitco post so they've retaliated...the nerve of those guys!
It's either that, or my judgement is being affected by a real bad gas attack (Steak Cesar Salad with Onions and Garlic Bread).
Now it could be that I'm hitting the wrong buttons...I need some help, please. Where do I go to see the Trail Guide's latest post and how do I get there?TIA
Mr Gresham
(09/03/00; 18:33:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 35943)
FOA -- The Trail
FOA -- I'm no expert on the original Mr G, since I picked my name in the Y2k bank run context last year, and I've had to learn a lot since then.
But, I think what he said HAS held true, and you had it reversed: "Where government decrees it to be used as a legal tender, the bad money drives good out of circulation."
In this case, people are stashing their gold, a la Martin Armstrong (maybe not right in their hall closets, however) and spending, first, their credit e-money, second their e-bank deposits of their paychecks, and third, the paper green stuff that might survive the first two categories.
Of course most of them have no gold, but, instinctively, they're loading up on credit purchases (houses, cars, etc.), spending each others' IRA's out of those money market funds, and generally waiting for the whole house of cards to come down (gotta go - guests -- put in appearance so I can next catch Strad Master on Internet radio in 25 minutes, too -- OK?)
Canuck
(09/03/00; 18:29:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 35942)
Hussein has cancer and is dying
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/middle_east/newsid_908000/908930.stm
Saddam Hussein has lymph cancer, trouble breathing, memory loss, poor eyesight and lack of concentration. Sources say he's been like this for a long time.
CoBra(too)
(09/03/00; 18:24:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 35941)
... and I forgot to add somewhere in last post -
Nor was the posession of gold illegal - at least to my knowledge - even under the Hitler regime I'm not aware of such a measure - for the "general" public, if there such left.
cb2
CoBra(too)
(09/03/00; 18:16:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 35940)
@TIH - from the "Austrian"
Well, Sir, we've all probably read everything there is to read about and into the latest FAZ articles, including the really great comments by Reg Howe and others on the main gold fora.
I personally have been expecting a second tranche, leg or whatever on the WA and posted here and on the cafe chat some weeks back about my notions. Well, it did happen, since the feeling is it was BuBa (Bundesbank) sending this volley, aimed at FED and TSY, aagainst further gold- and as a consequence $-manipulation. Though BuBa wouldn't go it alone anymore - meaning they would have covered their back at least by other leading euro cb's and ECB (id est WA).
To my knowledge, Europe never officially confiscated gold, nor madethe acquisition of at least old and/or bullion coins illegal - though in some countries you couldn't buy bullion bars, or say Krugers for different reasons as economic boycotts -vs f.i. SA, or in era's of foreign exchange regulations, like post WWII, or tax or tariff considerations - otherwise the acquisition of gold and gold coinage by the public was mostly eendorsed and wellcomed by european states throughout history, since it was and still is a profitable business to the usually still gov. owned (not anymore everywhere, though)mints and the tax man.
As the typical last century European has lost all his currency savings at least twice, gold was always a part of the overall asset equation for the more affluent and may still be, though maybe "restricted" to the older generation now, as our stock markets are not too far behind the US X-changes.
In the aftermath of the Soth East Asian and Russian crisis there was a noticeable pick up in bullion sales throughout Europe, never followed by Y2K or any other concerns. So the complacency over here is matching the US, with the exception of ever lessening acceptance of the euro.
Being a contrarian (or hoping to endure) I should pick up some more euro currency (smile), though I'd rather pick up some more gold - even if it's still at $-inflated "contract"
value. The difference may prove to be negligible - x-change some more of your respective currency for reality - best cb2
JavaMan
(09/03/00; 17:58:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 35939)
(No Subject)
http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/news/pages/sti/2000/09/03/stifgnnws02001.html
Some time ago, I posted about a visit I made to the Olin/Flinchbaugh facility in York, PA where they manufacture the "Tank Killer" armament that was used successfully in Desert Storm against Iraq. It's a high-speed round of depleted uranium that goes through tank armor like a hot knife through butter.
The link above takes you to info about a "minor detail" I wasn't aware of until now. Thanks to GoldbBrick at Kitco for the heads up.
Gold Trail Update
(09/03/00; 16:27:21MDT - Msg ID:35938)
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
Shermag
(09/03/00; 13:42:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 35937)
Black Blade, Kyoto Treaty as good as dead
I have believed since its inception that Kyoto never would be implemented as agreed. Too costly both economically and politically. What concerns me greatly is the opportunity it provides for our governments to do that which they do worst. Among the possibilities:
- Create new expensive and permanant bureaucracies, enlarge the existing ones.
- Impose a new or increased tax in the name of providing the correct incentives.
- Impose more regulations on all.
- Increase its redistributionist activity.
- Increase its direct activity in the market.
No good will come of it.
Shermag
(09/03/00; 13:16:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 35936)
Journeyman's two Questions of the Day
Journeyman posed these two excellent questions yesterday:
QUESTION 1: Why wouldn't increased energy prices show up as "inflation" if we were on a true (convertible) gold standard?
QUESTION 2: What WOULD happen?
My response:
1. Inflation, properly defined as an increase in the money supply, is held in check by the convertibility to gold. Energy price rises do not create more gold, and since the currency in question is tied closely to the available gold on deposit, the money supply is more or less held stable.
Inflation, otherwise defined as a general rise in prices, would not occur, as there would be a corresponding price decline of other goods. Sort of like saying the same amount of money now chasing some goods (energy) more than others.
2. An energy price rise , first of all, would reflect some change in the market condition, such as a depletion of more easily exploitable reserves and a shift to more costly energy sources, some technological development that increases demand (the jet engine spawning a huge air travel industry for example), or possibly some shift in consumer preferences (the proliferation of air conditioning comes to mind).
This rise in prices would cause an adjustment in the economy on numerous fronts some of which are:
a) As mentioned above, there would be a shift away from consumption of other goods.
b) There would also be a decline in the currently established consumption patterns of energy. People would drive less for example.
c) There would be capital invested toward more efficient energy utilization (building insulation standards increased).
d) A shift in capital would occur toward exploration for more energy, and more complete utilization of existing reserves.
e) There would be a shift to less costly energy sources.
In short life would go on, and the economy would absorb the reality of more costly energy in the least wasteful manner.
BTW, I thought JMB had a great response, especially to the second question (lol).
Strad Master
(09/03/00; 12:10:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 35935)
Mr. Gresham
http://www.KKGOFM.com/playlist&kmozart%20live.htm
Itr was still Saturday for me when I posted. Sorry about the confusion.
Strad Master
(09/03/00; 11:59:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 35934)
Mr. Gresham
http://www.KKGOFM.com/playlist&kmozart%20live.htm
Yes, that's right. "Sunday's at 6" is the name of the show. The Pacific Trio is the name of my Trio. The concert is today -Sunday the 3rd - at 6 PM. Hope you can listen in. It's good luck that I looked in on USA Gold this morning to see your message. Thanks for providing the opportunity to make things crystal clear. See y'all later...
Mr Gresham
(09/03/00; 11:50:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 35933)
Strad Master #35907 -- Your Concert
http://www.kkgofm.com/log_files/kkgolog7a.htm
You posted just after midnite -- are you scheduled for Sunday (link above -- "Sundays at Six: Pacific Trio"), or Monday?
Trail Guide to post later today -- oooh boy -- only (almost) thing that can keep me inside on a sunny afternoon.
SHIFTY
(09/03/00; 11:05:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 35932)
Gold Markets
Is the rest of the world trading gold tonight and tomorrow?
$hifty
HI - HAT
(9/3/2000; 10:05:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 35931)
Black Blade___Town Crier__________Sovereign Individuals
Civil Defense Stance Is Exercise In Common Sense
The running of each household, as if it were a soveriegn little country, is by far, in addition to the holding of precious metals, the cement that is needed to enhance and safeguard your lives, fortunes, and future.
Everyones level of dependance on the "system", going just right, needs to be looked at very carefully.
This is the time to get a grip on procrastination, and lay in supplies and fine tune operating proceedures to ensure
that you will continue to wake up and smell the coffee.
Knallgold
(9/3/2000; 9:26:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 35930)
@Trail Guide (or is it now guise??)
What is your take on the intercontinentalexchange?This seems not the new physical market we are hoping for (no smile).
But it seems they were in a hurry as their webpage has a lot of bugs built in.
Black Blade
(9/3/2000; 9:12:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 35929)
Nothing Wrong with a Bit of Insurance and Preparation. - Irregardless of How it all Plays Out!
In a nutshell - Now would be an excellent time to prepare for the coming energy crunch. Prepare as some did with the percieved threat of Y2K, get stocks of necessities, Gold and Silver, good defensive stock positions, and hold on for the wild ride. If you prepared for Y2K, then you're already a step up on everyone else. Nothing wrong with preparation. Remember Aesop's fable - "The Ant and The Grasshopper"
Going fishin' - later, Black Blade.
Black Blade
(9/3/2000; 9:07:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 35928)
Oil Price and Depletion - Very Interesting analysis!
Oil Price and Depletion by iNet News Manager
Oil Crisis News from Around the World source: The Coming Global Energy Crisis
•• June 6, 2000 •• SolarQuest® iNet News Service •• Movements in the price of oil may be delivering a message beyond the simple balance of supply and demand. [by C.J.Campbell]
Starting from a low of about $10 in February 1999, price rose consistently in a well defined band to a High of $34 around March 10th 2000. This rise may in fact have represented the unseen iron hand of depletion rather than any particular OPEC action. The High triggered a certain panic in Washington and general outrage in the USA, even with calls for military intervention. The Secretary of Energy then toured the world trying to persuade the producers to produce more. His efforts were met with sympathy, of which the market got wind and started marking down the price in anticipation of the critical OPEC meeting on March 27th. Five days before this, the US Geological Survey made (or was persuaded to make) a Press Release of an unfinished report that not only exaggerated the size of the undiscovered and the scope for reserve growth but increased radically the potential of the three countries of North America. Observers may be forgiven for concluding that this was politically motivated to undermine OPEC confidence.
OPEC did make a conciliatory gesture, declaring a policy to hold price in the $22-$28 band. Significantly, Iran declined to sign. The reason may have been - not so much that it disagreed with the OPEC position - but that it did not want to admit that it could not physically meet its quota, which would have diminished its political stance in the region.
Oil price fell to about $25.50 by the March 27th meeting, but then strengthened briefly because the OPEC offer was not seen as being generous enough. Oil price then plunged again, reflecting the arrival of a large number of tankers, which had been dispatched previously to give weight to OPEC's gesture. Some of these tankers drew their cargoes from floating storage in the Gulf rather than increased production.
Oil price bottomed at about $21.50 around April 10th, when the impact of these deliveries passed, and began to firm hesitantly until the end of April. It then became evident that supply was not going to be enough to both meet demand and replenish depleted stocks. Price then soared to $28, and began to breach the OPEC ceiling, at which point it also entered again the long term band that has been developing over the past 12 months.
So far as the movements over the next few months are concerned, we may speculate as follows.
Price will dither around $28 to see if OPEC will or can increase production to hold its declared range of $22-28. Within a matter of weeks it may become doubtful if it can. Price will then pass through the emotional $30 barrier. That will trigger another political spasm in Washington, and new calls for military intervention will be voiced. There will be pressure on Norway, Mexico and Venezuela to increase production to counter what is wrongly perceived in certain quarters as the Muslims holding the West to ransom. There will be a lot of rhetoric of a very damaging type. It will soon however become evident that these three countries cannot physically increase their production rapidly.
We should also not forget the position of Russia and the Caspian. Russia is now facing serious food shortages, which force it to increase imports. This is a heavy burden on its foreign exchange, almost all of which comes from the export of oil. By the autumn, the harvest will be in reducing the pressure to export oil, which is in increasing demand internally as the domestic economy improves. Falling Russian exports will be further pressure for higher world oil price.
It seems that the Kashagan East well in the northern Caspian has made a discovery of about 10 billion barrel (another Prudhoe Bay) in an immensely expensive operation. It is however a solitary huge structure and does not herald further major discoveries capable of having a world impact. The potential of the Caspian has been generally exaggerated in a pitiful example of wishful thinking as the West dreams of countering Middle East control. Confirmation of this discovery may however cause a temporary emotional fall in oil price. It may also trigger further tensions about the ownership of the Caspian. Russia and Iran have claimed that it is a lake not a sea and that it is owned jointly by the contiguous countries. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan naturally claim that their offshore extensions belong to them. Russia or other neighbouring countries they have a lever to impose their will as the pipelines have to pass through their territories. The US will likely want to get embroiled in this affair with the carrot of financial help and the stick of military intervention, possibly related to the Chechnyan civil war, but it may end in another failed policy.
Gradually the market will perceive that there is neither an OPEC ceiling nor a roof above it. Prices will soar into the $40s. That in turn will trigger a stockmarket crash and another Asian recession. By year end, all of this may have curbed demand sufficiently to allow oil prices to fall back to the mid $30s. In any event, the days of cheap oil are well and truly over.
The US situation seems to be particularly serious because this oil crisis will coincide with serious gas shortages. Gas depletes very differently from oil due to its higher molecular mobility and recovery factor. Instead of following a bell curve, production is capped by the limits of the pipeline and the market. In an unregulated market, such a plateau runs its course with few signals that it is about to end, it being often cheaper to produce the last cubic foot than the first. The plateau ends not in a slope but in a cliff. The United States may now be looking over the edge of this cliff.
For all of these reasons, the new President will face some kind of economic discontinuity.
We are not running out of oil, merely reaching the peak of production. Peak is not the end of the world. But the perception that the fuel that has driven the economic prosperity of the last 50 years is getting expensive and in short supply will have a radical impact on business decisions and investment strategies.
It takes no feat of intellect to see these patterns and pressures. But it is a picture that no one wishes to see, which explains the scale of denial and obfuscation. In this context, we may note that the President of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (which is colluding with the USGS) launched an editorial against a study of depletion in the May issue of the AAPG Explorer. He sought to discredit it, but in fact confirmed it when he stressed that the production of non-conventional oil and gas could be stepped up in North America. This is expensive stuff, and no one produces it if there are abundant supplies of cheap conventional oil. In other words, the hoped-for growth of non-conventional oil and gas implies the peak of conventional hydrocarbons and a radical increase in price. But why does the AAPG not discuss the obvious implication instead of pretending that there is a seamless transition? Incidentally, the new USGS study claims that new discovery will amount to 724 Gb between the years 1995 and 2025. It means that it is already short almost 100 Gb, and cannot possibly catch up with its totally implausible target.
We can expect this denial and obfuscation to continue, but while it misleads many, it also offers great investment opportunities to those who are not deceived and have the courage to plan for the inevitable.
Black Blade
(9/3/2000; 9:01:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 35927)
Natural Gas: The Five Stages to Market Panic by Ilan Goldman
Natural Gas is Going to be the Real Big Problem!
Oil Crisis News from Around the World source: The Coming Global Energy Crisis
•• Aug. 10, 2000 •• SolarQuest® iNet News Service •• (This report by Charles T. Maxwell, Senior Energy Analyst (maxwell@weedenco.com) was posted by Ilan Goldman.)
The low natural gas reinjection numbers we have seen so far this spring in the US tell their own tale. We are not on our way to putting three trillion cubic feet of gas, or anything like it, into storage for use next winter. From a low of one trillion cubic feet (and nearly 50 % of that is facility and line "fill", i.e., is not usable), we would be fortunate now to bring stored supplies up to 2.3 Tcf by early next November, the start of the gas consuming season. Given the presumed retreat of the La Ni--a weather pattern, the strong US economy, and the substantial number of new natural-gas-fueled base-load generating plants using combined-cycle technology coming on stream over the next six months, I have had to revise my estimate for peak gas storage down a bit from the 2.5 Tcf number I was using two months ago.
In practical terms, unless the coming winter approaches the highly-unusual, +13% warmer-than usual season we have just passed through, US gas storage numbers are accumulating in a potentially disastrous pattern of insufficient gas to take this country through the full span of cold weather to April of 2001. There is the possibility that we will be forced to allocate gas supplies to private homes, government departments and public institutions, to defense installations and to schools, universities, hospitals, and so on. To the degree that is necessary, gas will have to be allocated away from manufacturing industry.
Hit hardest, in such a period, would be sectors of the economy that use a high proportion of natural gas in their fuel mix such as cement plants, glass works, heat-treating and metal-shaping plants, heavy chemicals, steel, copper and aluminum makers, and so on. Subsequently, problems of insufficient production of component parts and intermediate materials could quickly spread to car and aircraft manufacturers, commercial construction and machine assembly industries. In short, the use of natural gas is so widespread in our manufacturing system that shortages of it for, say, a two month period from late January of 2001 to late March would wreak havoc on many areas of our economy.
It would surely slow national GDP growth, and heavily penalize the profits of many industrial firms. However, all this is theoretical. It really couldn't turn out this way, could it? Yes, it could. And, unless the trends I see in place now of close to 3% incremental natural gas consumption in the US vs. flat or slightly down natural gas production are reversed for some reason I cannot now perceive, the "disaster scenario" outlined above must be considered the most likely one.
Perhaps the most intriguing part of the emerging outlook for a shortfall in gas supplies is not the fact that the crisis has arrived (after all it has been predicted for years, and, up to now, nothing serious has occurred), but rather the point that we are advancing deeper and deeper into this energy problem and no one, other than a few Wall Street analysts, are making any warning noises about it. The media is quiet.
It is either non-believing or unimpressed by the dimensions of what is visible. Government, at all levels, is complacent. There are no public outcries even from executive figures in gas consuming industries that are heavily dependent on the fuel. We are becalmed in a sea of silence on this issue as we pass into summer. The weather is fair, and the "livin’ is easy". And, when winter comes? It's just another season, following summer. Nothing to worry about.
However, a few important people in the system quite plainly see the outlines of what is to come. Their traders are bidding up the price of natural gas dramatically (now 100% higher than the last year's $2.10 per mm btu price at this season) in order to secure supplies for storage now - supplies that may not be available next February when many industries could be facing downtime. These gas buyers are doing their homework. And, it is their lead that investors should be following.
Still, I am ahead of the story in my surprise that the media has not yet picked up on the coming crisis. For over the years (and I have a good many of them), it has been my experience that there is a repetitive cycle to how these "threats" to the system are understood and acted on by different parts of our society.
In the case of the emerging shortage of natural gas, to take the example before us, the first group to identify it was the industry specialists (apart from many natural gas production company managers who had spotted it years in advance), in particular a small group of Wall Street analysts who were doing their weekly storage sums and saw that behind the façade of last winter's warmth was a highly worrisome picture of an industry failing to convert its greater effort to find supplies (some 650 rigs drilling for gas this year vs. some 380 drilling for gas last year at the same time) into rising output figures. Across the board, analysts in the oil and gas industry are now convinced there is a substantial problem ahead.
This is Stage One, and it is nearly completed.
Stage Two is the tricky one. Analysts must convince their portfolio people that the problem is real, and direct them to what areas of the market to buy and what to avoid to maximize investment returns. But, portfolio managers are resistant to these arguments (they have heard them before) . So, only a few comprehend and accept the fundamental story, then take action. But, those brave souls start building upward momentum into the limited group of gas producing stocks that can be bought in size by the institutions (APC-53, BR-45, UCL-38, APA-60, DVN-60, and EOG-32, in order of descending capitalization) . Then, that section of institutional portfolio managers which cannot yet grasp the play itself but which is attuned to moving into stock groups with rising upward momentum in the market (for whatever reason), can be expected to swing onto the story. In this case, the natural gas producing group has recently come up on everyone's charts as being in the lift-off stage.
Finally, the remaining portfolio managers, still not convinced, are forced to act in order to maintain their performance rankings, and they belatedly enter the game.
We are better than halfway through Stage Two now, as I make it out. The fundamental players are "in", and the momentum players are starting to react. But, as to a general capitulation of portfolio managers to the natural gas shortage concept, that will be reserved for quarter-ending rallies in June and September yet to come, if I am reading the tea leaves correctly.
As I have previously noted, the media have not yet focused on this problem. That will be Stage Three.
There is a substantial story to tell here. Outages in industrial plants across (mainly) the Midwest and Northeast, with tens of thousands of workers staying home, is a major development. When TV reporters, newspapers and magazines eventually pick up the trend, perhaps several months will have passed and the situation may well be seen as more grave. Having professionally worked through the period of Energy Crisis I and II, it would not surprise me if the media termed the new "threat" as Energy Crisis III.
However, I don't think that this natural gas problem will have the public impact of the first two crises. Lack of gasoline (read mobility) and long waiting lines to obtain it may be more effective in influencing the American psyche than 100 industrial plants being shut down. However, Energy Crisis III is a convenient name, and at least it has the advantage of catching people's attention. Stage Three is a big step in the development of a crisis mentality in the market for gas-related stocks. But, we are not yet into this stage.
On the basis of widespread (future) media attention, Stage Four would involve governmental reaction to this, on all levels. By late summer and early autumn, we will be into the late days of the Clinton Administration's time in office. It certainly could be a political problem to admit that something this important had been allowed to develop, unbeknown to all, into a significant threat to the system.
On the other hand, the issue cannot be easily swept under the carpet because its effects are too close to breaking through into public consciousness. Moreover, the Gore-Bush pre-election debates should be in full swing by then, and Bush would be well guided to raise points, such as this, in which he has had some practical experience and for which no anticipatory consideration has been made in the non-existent national energy plan that President Clinton never formulated (nor did any other previous US president). As I see it, the Government will be forced to confirm the size and scope of the gas problem, and will further alarm industry by referring to the possibility of gas allocation on a national, state or local level.
Stage Four could well occur in September and October of this year. Its outcome would logically lead to Stage Five, the final rush to panic and overexposure. This would be the result of heightened media attention, followed by effective governmental confirmation that the problem was real and might not be easily fixed except through significant sacrifices on the part of the public. Stage Five would represent a general recognition that we could be entering a difficult period of fuel shortages and that the effects might be more serious than mere "inconvenience". It should be noted that under any allocation formula, those organizations and industries that could switch from natural gas to propane, butane, heating oil or residual fuel oil would be asked to do so. And, subsequently, these products might themselves run short under the impact of unexpectedly high demand. They might also advance dramatically in price.
Stage Five would also imply a highly visible case for investing in companies that might be best positioned to assist in solving the natural gas shortage. The final run of small investors’ funds into the natural gas producers might represent a "tsunami" of money seeking entry to a play already suffering from limited capitalization, thus forcing gas producer share prices into the "blue yonder".
Stage Five, perhaps occurring in mid-to-late autumn, would, of course, be immediately followed by the actual onset of cold weather. By then, investors would also have full knowledge of the country's three-quarter-filled gas storage position. Early outages might start to occur, for coincidental reasons, in late January of 2001. However, the main weight of the shortfall would be expected to fall when different major storage points in various consuming regions of the country ran out of supplies in February and March of next year. That is when companies, facing closedowns for lack of fuel, should be most pressured to bid for gas to avoid the termination of output and temporary disbandment of their labor forces. So, we have assumed a peak to natural gas prices in February of 2001, probably in the $6.00 - 7.00 per mm btu range following a prolonged period of cold weather.
This could be the high point of fear, when many businesses could be driven to uneconomic decisions just to survive.This would logically be the exit point for experienced investors. With all five stages of the play completed, and the axe of cold weather fallen, this would be the time to collect your chips and leave the game. Conditions will likely not be so desperate or so uncertain again for some time, experience teaches us. Of course, the natural gas problem itself will not suddenly go away. It will take many seasons to find an answer to it. But, we will solve the problem, as we always do. And, as we move through the crisis and consider our options, all kinds of answers will present themselves. Meanwhile, the stock prices of natural gas producers would be expected to start down as early desperation gave way to later resolution.
What will be the eventual answers to the natural gas shortfall? Think about a higher range of prices, application of additional technology, new generations of sophisticated drilling rigs, more LNG receiving terminals, and what can come south from Alaska.
JavaMan
(9/3/2000; 8:58:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 35926)
Good morning All...
Hello Journeyman, you said..."Of course, in fairness I must admit that the real goal of the Federal Reserve Act wasn't to keep the banks in line, at least not from the customer's viewpoint. It was quite the opposite -- to allow them to counterfeit "redeemable in gold on demand" paper certificates without the rather immediate "run-on-the-bank" consequences caused by customer scrutiny on unsafe banking practices during the preceding "free banking" period."
And let's not forget what is perhaps the most significant feature of the Act, "the Bailout", which transfers the cost of failures when they do occur, because of bank runs, bad bank loans, etc. to the American tax payer!
Bonedaddy, your msg#: 35865...what an excellent question. I say, What an excellent answer! If one is to come away with only a single thought, it is surely this: "In 1913 We The People appointed a ruling class that has since enslaved us by our own greed." Can you say..."Hotel California"?
Al Fulchino, as I go along the journey, all too often kicking and screaming, your msg#: 35843 re: the Refiners Fire, causes me to stop and take pause. Thank you, sir.
Journeyman
(9/3/2000; 8:42:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 35925)
Which attitude? @714
714: "Journeyman, I am puzzled by your attitude. First you say,
'You're looking in the wrong place for historical data on gold
"smuggling" circa 1933.' I did not know you were aware of where I
may be researching for information on the history of gold."
J-man: Ya got me there fair and square, podner. Since smuggling
is generally perceived as bringing goods INTO a jurisdiction
against gubbmint edicts, I ASS-U-ME-d you were looking in that
historical direction, rather than at gold smuggled OUT of US.
714: "Second, you say, 'It's only necessary to know...' Sir, I am
a simple man, a seeker of truth. It is NEVER 'only necessary to
know...' It is necessary to understand, with an open mind.
Always."
J-man: In general, I agree with you -- I always prefer to
understand as many minute details as I am able and have time for
- - - and believe it or not, I also try to keep an open mind --
because perhaps in that stance, my understanding will evolve.
But in communication and chess, often we have to settle for
heuristics -- short-cuts or substitutes to understanding --
because we lack time or band-width for more. I was merely
observing that persistent price differentials for "the same" item
can only persist, especially in the "modern" world only as a
result of gubbmint intereference in trade. There was indeed a
price differential in gold that persisted, and human nature being
what it is, you can be relatively sure _someone_ was exploiting
it.
Perhaps you wish to quibble with my description of the resultant
exchange activity as "smuggling" since it was done by the same
constituted authorities who call it "murder" if you do it but
"national security" if they do. But because such a quibble is
consistent with the common perceptions which excuse governments
for all crimes, I'll accept that quibble as understandable.
714: "Currently I am researching legal cases involving miners who
sued the government for the right to set their own prices for
their product. I will endeavor to extend that effort to uncover
any cases that involved the smuggling of gold out of the US."
J-man: It's clear you're a heavy dude. Look forward to learning
from you!
"714 values truth more than gold...."
Damn good! Me too. I suspect we're allies.
Regards,
Journeyman
Black Blade
(9/3/2000; 8:41:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 35924)
Geologists anticipate an oil crisis soon
Source: Science News
By R. Monastersky
Cheap oil has helped fuel the economic boom of the 1990s. But petroleum prices will jump drastically in the near future, as the world starts to feel the pinch of tightening hydrocarbon supplies, according to several forecasts.
Some see the shock coming in only a few years, while others put it off for more than 2 decades. Nonetheless, these pessimistic predictions agree that oil production will soon peak and then start sliding downward, even as demand for oil continues to climb.
"For over 150 years, mankind has been used to an ever-growing supply of cheap and abundant energy," says Colin J. Campbell, a former exploration geologist now doing studies for Petroconsultants in Geneva. His analysis calls for production to peak in less than a decade. "The implications of this on industry, world politics, and economics seems to me to be enormous," he said this week at the annual meeting of the Geological Society of America in Toronto.
Campbell and his colleague at Petroconsultants Jean H. Laherrère reached their conclusion by estimating the remaining underground reserves of so-called conventional petroleum -- oil that is relatively easy to extract. Such oil accounts for 95 percent of the 800 billion barrels of oil that the world has burned thus far, says Campbell.
Going country by country, Campbell and Laherrère started with published tallies of oil deposits and made adjustments in cases where industry data indicates that nations had inflated their figures. Extrapolating from these numbers and past oil-discovery rates, they estimate that roughly 1 trillion barrels of oil remain in known and undiscovered fields.
Production will peak, they hypothesize, when the quantity of oil already burned equals the amount yet to be extracted. They expect that point to come within a decade but project oil prices to jump even sooner. The economic impact will occur when nations in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries gain control of the market after production begins to drop outside the Middle East.
When worldwide production starts falling, nations could tap into nonconventional sources of oil, such as heavy oil, tar, and hydrocarbons locked in shales. But these will cost more to extract and process, say the researchers.
Numbers only slightly more optimistic appeared in a March report by the International Energy Agency in Paris, which estimates there are 1.5 trillion barrels of conventional oil in reserves. The agency predicted that production would peak before 2015, so by 2020, demand will exceed supply by 17 million barrels a day.
At this week's meeting, John D. Edwards of the University of Colorado at Boulder estimated that 2 trillion barrels of oil exist in known and undiscovered fields. Though he pushes the production peak back to 2020, his result "should urge us now to consider replacement energies."
Some energy analysts, however, dispute such worrisome forecasts. Thomas S. Ahlbrandt of the U.S. Geological Survey in Denver, who leads an ongoing federal effort to estimate global reserves, finds hope in new technologies that allow companies to pursue oil in the deep sea and other areas previously unexamined. "Since 1990, the area available for exploration has doubled in the world."
Advances are also helping companies after they locate oil. Three-dimensional seismic imaging has improved the mapping of fields, and whereas engineers once bored only vertically through Earth's crust, they now can steer their drilling, even horizontally.
In its 1998 International Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration concluded that "technologies continue to evolve that significantly enhance both exploration and production capabilities." It does not forecast production to peak during the time frame of its analysis, which runs to 2020.
Economist Morris Adelman of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology challenges the practice of estimating oil reserves. "Nobody knows how much hydrocarbon exists or what percentage of that will be recoverable," he says.
Judging from the histories of other geologic commodities, Adelman sees reasons to expect an increasing petroleum supply. "The tendency to deplete [a resource] is counteracted by increases in knowledge," he says.
From Science News, Vol. 154, No. 18, October 31, 1998, p. 278.
Black Blade: That time has come! Time to hedge is upon us.
Black Blade
(9/3/2000; 8:34:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 35923)
History About to be Repeated!
Source: Reuters
Are Fast-Rising Oil Prices Economy-Killers?
Last updated: 02 Sep 2000 18:05 GMT (Reuters)
By Pierre Belec
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Is it fair to call soaring oil prices economy-killers? Some experts say yes, yet Wall Street has been relaxed about the explosion in oil prices and the prospect that energy may be a expensive item for a long time. Indeed, this year's surge in crude oil prices to a 10-year high has changed the inflation script. Gasoline prices at the pump reached record levels this summer and heating oil and natural gas prices are forecast to go through the roof this winter. With the stock market chugging along nicely, investors seem to be hoping that the economy will be miraculously lucky in avoiding the nasties from oil's spike. Something else has changed. The interest-rate environment is no longer as favorable, now that the Federal Reserve has pushed up the cost of borrowing by 1.75 percentage points to a nine-year high. The central bank's goal is to zap consumer spending, which has powered the economy's expansion to a record 10th year. The concern is that such long-running growth could spark a cycle of inflation. Faced with this new economic landscape, the Nervous Nellies say higher interest rates and oil prices are a bad mix that may slam the economy. "We remain concerned that rising energy prices will spill over into non-energy prices, raising core consumer price inflation and the need for higher interest rates," says Gail Dudack, chief investment strategist for UBS Warburg.
RIGHT OR WRONG? CHECK IT OUT.
"Certainly, higher interest rates, higher energy costs and slower job growth suggest that the economy cannot keep up its previous pace," says Allen Sinai, chief global economist for Primark Decision Economics Inc. "The 175-basis-point increase of short-term interest rates (by the Fed) and $75 billion to $100 billion equivalent tax hike from higher energy prices must slow the economy. But how much so is not clear," he said. Others cited the psychological negative that soaring energy prices will have on the consumer and producer price indexes through year-end. With the PPI and CPI trending higher, the bigger the odds of more interest-rate increases as inflation-fighting Alan Greenspan, the Fed chairman, turns up the noise about the damage that escalating oil prices will have on the economy.
GOODBYE TO ERA OF ULTRA-LOW INFLATION
"You'd never know there was a crisis on Wall Street," says Stephen Leeb, editor of Personal Finance, a financial newsletter. "Like the rest of America, the investment community thinks the high price of energy is just temporary. Prices are not going to come down. In fact, they are going to continue to soar." Oil prices have more than tripled since February 1999, climbing from an unusually depressed $10 to more than $30 a barrel. Heating oil prices galloped to a 10-year high this week and now stand at twice the level of the winter of 1999, at more than $1 a gallon. There's more bad news for heating oil customers. Abnormally low supplies will keep upward pressure on prices. U.S. heating oil stocks are down 39 percent from a year ago and in the Northeast, the world's largest heating oil market, reserves have plunged to 20 million barrels from 45 million in 1999, according to the American Petroleum Institute. In another twist of 'Our gain is your pain' theme, U.S. producers of heating oil are shipping heating oil to Europe because prices are higher on the Continent. Natural gas producers, meanwhile, are asking state regulators for double-digit price increases with natgas already costing more than twice as much as a year ago. The summer wasn't a walk in the park for the automobile-dependent Americans. Gasoline prices climbed to a record high of more than $2 a gallon in some areas of the country. After a two-month slide, gasoline prices are again climbing because of skyrocketing oil prices.
FAIR TO GIVE ENERGY PRICES AN ECONOMY-KILLER STATUS?
"Most economists have too short of a memory -- or they don't have one because they did not live through it -- but the last period of hyper-inflation in 1974 was started by rising energy prices, which crept into all other goods and services," says Ned Riley, chief investment strategist for State Street Global Advisors in Boston. "Back then, most people excused away the inflation pressure because it was energy-related and clearly OPEC was going to break down and crumble and we would not have an inflation problem," he said. "Inflation peaked around 1980 and it showed that it was not a short-lived thing, but rather a quite significant period of protracted rising prices and wages catching up with the cost of buying goods," Riley said. Rising energy prices also caused or aggravated recessions in the 1980s and 1990s. For the last half-decade, cheap oil may have boosted global economic growth by keeping inflation low. But the great times came to an end in the spring of 1998, when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, known for its lack of discipline, finally got its act together and started cutting back on supplies. The concern now is that the global economy may be seeing the start of a fundamental change in the oil market. If so, energy costs may stay high for a long time, or until OPEC infighting starts again, or a global recession causes the world to gag on excess oil production. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation gauges have been mysteriously tame this summer, despite record gasoline prices. But the impact of fast-rising oil prices may take up to 1-1/2 years to fully snake through the economy. Sinai said Greenspan does not have as much elbow room as in 1999, when inflation was missing from the radar screen. Last year, the core rate of inflation, which excludes the wildly fluctuating food and energy prices, edged up just 1.5 percent -- under the Fed's tolerance of 2.0 percent. This year, the core rate has risen to 2.5 percent. "Any ratcheting-up from here would put the Federal Reserve in a very difficult position in terms of maintaining price level stability, which is the Fed's stated goal," Sinai said. The explosion in energy prices may be more damaging to the economies of other industrialized countries because they pay for oil in U.S. dollars, which is a currency that is strong against the weak euro. Yet some experts say energy prices are not as much of a factor in this 'New Economy' because technology has transformed how business is done. In other words, technology has rendered historical inflation extinct. Others disagree. In 1990, when Iraq invaded Kuwait, oil doubled to more than $40 a barrel and U.S. inflation shot up to more than 6 percent from 4.6 percent in 1989. Ten years later, can the "Great Technology Revolution" have so radically changed the way the economy works that it will be immune to leaping oil prices? That seems to be the hope on Wall Street.
Black Blade: Really lays it on the line. Stephen Leeb made his mark in the oil run-up in the 1970's. He is bullish on petroleum, energy, and PMs. History does repeat itself, no matter what the "New Paradigm" people say. How many times have we heard throughout history that it's different this time? In the late 1800's it was the telegraph and railroads, the early 1900's it was the automobile and utilities, in the 1920's it was radio, in the 1960's it was "tronics" and synergies, in the 1960's to early 1970's it was the "Nifty Fifty", and now it's tech and dot.coms. But history does repeat itself! Every postwar recession was preceded by an increase in oil prices!
No one took the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo seriously until it was too late. Just like Aesop's fable of the " Ant and Grasshopper", those who recognized oportunity did well and prepared for the consequences. The drones who continued on in blissfull ignorance were caught unawares.
- "Those who do not remember are condemned to repeat it" - George Santayana
Canuck
(9/3/2000; 8:24:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 35922)
Overvalued stock markets
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_00/hamilton090400.html
I have reading and researching for almost 2 years now and have come across this article which, in my opinion explains in great detail and with exacting clarity how and why stock markets are overvalued.
This is a phenominal read, I highly recommend.
Trail Guide
(9/3/2000; 8:03:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 35921)
Onward!
Hello Everyone,
Sorry I couldn't make it for our hike yesterday! I was waiting for some input before taking up the walking stick and heading out onto the path. Because this is a big American weekend, most readers will have more time than usual,,,,, and some major things are happening,,, a longer walk is warranted (smile).
Will be posting later and joining the main forum.
Trail Guise
Journeyman
(9/3/2000; 7:48:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 35920)
Forward to the Past @Cavan Man msg#: 35880, ALL
"PS: I do not think we will ever return to a pure gold standard.
This concept of "freegold" is much more logical." -Cavan Man
(09/02/00; 09:27:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 35880
You could be right. But Keynes didn't really think we'd ever get
OFF the classical Gold Standard, which had evolved over 20
centuries or so! The question is _should_ we return to a
classical gold standard?
Now a little conceptual legerdemain: When was the "classical
gold standard?" Was it during A. the Federal Reserve/USA Corp.
money cartel beginning about 1913? Or was it B. during the "free
banking" era which predated that bankster inspired and controlled
cartel? During the "free banking" era, there was no official US
Government fiat currency; each bank issued it's own competing
redeemable & convertible gold-backed (mostly) certificates.
The answer is B. And the "free banking" era is remarkably
similar to what Trail Guide suggests as "Free Gold." With one
glaring exception: There was no banking cartel to retain monopoly
paper-money issuing power, and as a result, history shows that
inter-bank competition kept the banks in line _very_ well, and I
might add, predictibly kept them in line much better than did the
Federal Reserve.
Of course, in fairness I must admit that the _real_ goal of the
Federal Reserve Act wasn't to keep the banks in line, at least
not from the custormer's viewpoint. It was quite the opposite --
to allow them to counterfeit "redeemable in gold on demand" paper
certificates without the rather immediate "run-on-the-bank"
consequences caused by customer scrutiny on unsafe banking
practices during the preceeding "free banking" period. The
"Roaring Twenties" and the "Great Depression" were the rather
immediate result. Followed recently by the Mexican meltdown, the
Asian Contagion, and the imminent dollar debacle when
"foreigners" finally decide to send BIG-float back home to us.
So, if you accept my analysis, SHOULD we return to the free-
banking "Classical Gold Standard?"
If not, why not?
Regards,
Journeyman
P.S. If you don't think so, consider the implications of a BOE
target FLOOR for inflation as per the following:
"Higher rates have also pushed up British inflation, which had
threatened to drop below the Bank of England's target '_floor_'
of 1.5%." -London Sunday Times, September 3, 2000, BUSINESS, Oil
Skid Ahead http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/news/pages/Sunday-
Times/frontpage.html?999 [&Thanx to The Invisible Hand (9/3/2000;
5:35:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 35914)]
P.P.S. To the extent people understand they are targeted to be
robbed of a MINIMUM of 1.5% of their fiat holdings per year, I
suggest they will opt, with internet access available to all, for
some version of "freegold" free-banking --- such as available
from e-gold.com --- and without the PLANNED robbery of a minimum
of 1.5% of their holdings inherent in government vapor paper.
714
(9/3/2000; 7:44:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 35919)
Correction...
...my previous post should have read "...but I can find no history of gold confiscation in Europe, outside of war..."
Thank you.
714
(9/3/2000; 7:20:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 35918)
@The Invisible Hand @Journeyman
http://www.trumanlibrary.org/oralhist/bernsten.htm
Invisible Hand, the odds to me seem low that gold confiscation would occur in Europe, particularly France, one of the largest holders of gold. From the aforementioned link:
"In the course of the discussion, Morgenthau brought up the problem of France's ability to pay for the planes and other war supplies that France was buying. That led to a discussion of France establishing a foreign exchange control because the French people don't readily accommodate themselves to the Government coming along and controlling their financial affairs."
This is a quote from an interview with Bernard Bernstein, an attorney with the US Treasury Department from 1933-1942, and gives us some indication of the common folks' attitude there towards government. Perhaps it has changed in recent times, but there is no history of gold confiscation in Europe, outside of war, when it was forcefully taken by invading forces, as when Hitler confiscated the gold in the Czech National Bank.
*********************************************************
Journeyman, I am puzzled by your attitude.
First you say, "You're looking in the wrong place for historical data on gold "smuggling" circa 1933." I did not know you were aware of where I may be researching for information on the history of gold.
Second, you say, " It's only necessary to know..."
Sir, I am a simple man, a seeker of truth. It is NEVER only necessary to know..."
It is necessary to understand, with an open mind. Always.
Otherwise, thank you for your input. You have given me a line to work on. Currently I am researching legal cases involving miners who sued the government for the right to set their own prices for their product. I will endeavor to extend that effort to uncover any cases that involved the smuggling of gold out of the US.
714 values truth more than gold....
SteveH
(9/3/2000; 6:56:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 35917)
Fact or fiction?
www.kitco.com
This is too unbelieveable...
-- repost
Date: Sun Sep 03 2000 06:45
FoolsGold (Goldman Sachs...Going Under?..Ass Up ?...hope so) ID#334200:
Copyright © 2000 FoolsGold/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Home Page Sherman H. Skolnick Email: ...1187 more words.
Cavan Man
(9/3/2000; 6:52:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 35916)
Leigh
Technical problems prevented me from bringing the marshmallows yesterday eve. I've kept the bag though for our next fireside chat. Have a wonderful day.
Journeyman
(9/3/2000; 5:43:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 35915)
Smuggling@714
Sir 714,
You're looking in the wrong place for historical data on gold
"smuggling" circa 1933. It's only necessary to know that the
"official" gold price was $32 in 1933 and that it increased
(currently at ~$275) to know that the equivalent of smuggling
gold happened. At the point the establishment admitted there was
an "official" price (the official $40/oz. recently abandoned in
the wierd accounting "revaluation" scam by IMF is one of the corroborating
fossils of that time) and a "market price" and they weren't the
same, the establishment admitted as much, and that they had
completely lost control of it.
Of course, this was an atypical kind of smuggling: Usually
smuggling happens when governments are trying to keep prices of
protected goods high, not low, and they want to keep foreign
competing goods OUT, not domestic goods IN. Attempting to keep
national treasures IN a country when those outside want to buy
them is a similar "reverse smuggling" situation. Thus, you'd
have to look for smuggling of gold OUT of USA.
And since the Federal Reserve/USA Corp. scamsters at that time
had just stolen most of our ancestors' gold, there wasn't much in
the hands of the American _people _for them to smuggle out.
_Foreigners_, however saw the possibilities - - - and took
delivery of that "national treasure" (just stolen from our
ancestors) in ever increasing amounts, and "smuggled OUT" to them
by the Fed Reserve/USA Corp. scamsters. Until Nixon closed the
gold window to foreigners in 1971 - - - and the official vs.
"black [free] market" prices separated, never to meet again.
Regards,
Journeyman
The Invisible Hand
(9/3/2000; 5:35:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 35914)
$50 a barrel.- ECB interest rates X 2 in 1/2 y - upcoming recession
http://www.sunday-times.co.uk/news/pages/Sunday-Times/frontpage.html?999
London Sunday Times
September 3 2000
BUSINESS NEWS
Prices are set to rise again this winter. By David Smith and David Parsley
Oil skid ahead
JUST 18 months ago the oil sector was bemoaning a low oil price and the doomsayers were predicting that the crude price, then below $10 a barrel, might hit a new all-time low of $6 a barrel.
Oil majors such as Royal Dutch/Shell, BP Amoco and Texaco were demanding cuts in petroleum revenue tax (PRT), the government's main North Sea tax, so they could make a profit on the oil they were producing. The situation, we were led to believe, was dire.
Today the oil price has bounced decisively back above $30 a barrel, despite the efforts of Saudi Arabia and some of the other members of (the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), to steer it lower.
The fear, indeed, is that prices could head even higher over the winter months. Oil stocks are low, just as the big consuming countries move into winter. Earlier in the summer petrol shortages in America helped to push crude prices sharply higher as the refiners scrambled for supplies. Now, say analysts, the same thing could happen again because of a supply squeeze in the heating- oil market. And if Europe and America look to be heading into a severe winter, the upward spike for oil prices could be sharp, with some predicting $40 or even $50 a barrel.
"We know that there is plenty of oil in tankers, steaming towards the main markets, and we know that $3 or $4 of the present price reflects pure speculation," says one industry executive. "The question is whether the oil gets there in time to head off further speculative rises in the price."
Part of the problem has been created by the dynamics of the market itself. For the oil majors that hold most of the stocks, the sharp rise in crude prices has made it expensive and unprofitable to do so. They have had an incentive to operate on low stock levels until spot and futures prices for crude move back into line.
Opec, meanwhile, seems no better at controlling the market at a time of sharply rising prices than it was when oil was tumbling in value. Last week Saudi Arabia called for a "suitable" increase in output to be agreed when the cartel meets on September 10. It has pledged a 500,000 barrel a day rise in output to try to calm the market.
Not all Opec members are, however, sympathetic, fearing that increasing production would play into the hands of the West by pushing prices sharply lower. Iraq's recent output has been low.
Whatever the prospects, the economic effects of higher oil prices are already apparent. The European Central Bank, which on Thursday raised the cost of borrowing, has presided over a near-doubling of interest rates in little more than six months, because the combination of dearer oil and a weak euro has pushed inflation above its target ceiling of 2%. Higher rates have also pushed up British inflation, which had threatened to drop below the Bank of England's target "floor" of 1.5%.
Some believe that the economic impact of the latest spike in oil prices, which is now taking on an air of permanence, has further to run.
More than a quarter of a century ago, oil derailed the global economy when Opec quadrupled crude prices. Some economists believe that history could repeat itself.
Andrew Oswald, a Warwick University economics professor, notes that every previous episode of sharply higher oil prices has been followed by recession - in the 1970s, early 1980s and early 1990s. Recent signs of an economic slowdown in America, he believes, could be the signal that a similar oil impact is starting to show through now.
The most visible effect, meanwhile, is at the petrol pumps. Last week Laurent Fabius, the French finance minister, announced cuts in the cost of domestic heating oil and in motoring taxes to offset rising oil prices. The pressure on Gordon Brown to follow suit by cutting petrol duties will intensify in the run-up to his pre-budget report in November.
....
SHIFTY
(9/3/2000; 4:47:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 35913)
Peter Asher
Any word from The Stranger?
Maybe he is still reading ORO's long post!
he he he
:)
Back to bed.
$hifty
Knallgold
(9/3/2000; 4:08:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 35912)
my last post,missing words
the leading conservative/liberal...NEWSPAPER OF GERMANY
Knallgold
(9/3/2000; 4:05:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 35911)
FAZ
http://www.faz.de/IN/INtemplates/Verlag/default.asp
Awhile back I wrote in this Forum of the FAZ "showing the middlefinger" to the establishment-bureaucrats when they announced that they will use from now on the old spelling again (in the german speaking countries there was a widely discussed "Rechtschreibereform","new spelling reform",the people were against it but it was then introduced without asking us).
The leading conservative/liberal(in the european Hayek sense!) is again shooting against the current politically left establishment with the Goldmanipulation articles.Something must have changed!
@Leigh: Socialist and Gold, your concern recently about "collectivation of Gold": maybe the revival of Gold will kick socialists out of office?A political revolution?A rebirth of conservative ideals,family'spending only what you have etc.?
Peter Asher
(9/3/2000; 3:35:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 35910)
Part of the problem
http://www.newsmax.com/commentarchive.shtml?a=2000/9/2/113957
Frightening article: what he doesn't say is how the companies described, suvive financially.
When Work Leaves the Workplace
John L. Perry
September 2, 2000
Excerpt >>> They see a swelling gaggle of younger applicants for
employment who show up, dressed more
appropriately for vacation than work, demonstrating
no visible curiosity about the company or what it is
trying to achieve, concerned only about benefits,
hours, vacation days, "personal" days, how often to
expect raises, when promotions are handed out and
whether the company will pay to further their
education.
They are not interested in work; what they want is a
job.
The Invisible Hand
(9/3/2000; 2:04:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 35909)
Confiscation in Europe
start quote -
Date: Sun, 03 Sep 2000 06:50:51 -0000
Subject: [GATA] European banks may be ready for showdown over gold
...
The danger, of course, is that soaring gold prices could trigger
sharp and mutually reinforcing sell offs in stocks, bonds and the
U.S. dollar.
...
- end quote
Has anybody some (Austrian perhaps, smile) thoughts about gold confiscation in Europe? Yes, I know it would be "Europeans" would trigger the POG rise, but this would result in a dramatic fall of (European) stocks and bonds, and then the politicians will assume they have to do something to save I-don't-know-what and could well follow the example across the Atlantic?
Chris Powell
(9/3/2000; 0:53:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 35908)
European banks ready for showdown over gold?
http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/519
Latest from Reg Howe, analyzing the
recent stories about GATA and gold
in the Frankfurter Allgemine.
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:
gata-subscribe@eGroups.com
Strad Master
(9/3/2000; 0:40:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 35907)
Final reminder
http://www.KKGOFM.com/playlist&kmozart%20live.htm
Since we are in the midst of a slow holiday weekend evening I thought I'd take this moment to post a final (off topic) reminder about my concert tomorrow night at 6 PM (Pacific Time). I hope many of you will be able to catch my performance over the net at the above link. Don't forget to account for your local time zone. Those of you in the LA area can listen on KMZT (FM 105.1). I hope this concert will serve to warm the cockles of the hearts of all the lords and ladies of this esteemed round table. I'll be thinking of you all. Gotta get to bed now. Night all...
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