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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 7/3/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

schippi (07/03/00; 21:46:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 33134)
Select Gold Chart 120 Days
http://www.SelectSectors.com/fsagx.gif
FSAGX trend remains Up

Happy 4'th Of July to ALL

Jason Happy (07/03/00; 19:47:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 33133)
Netking: Silver Coins vs. Bars (Today)

These days, you can get more silver for your dollar in coin form than if you prefer .999 fine bar form. Many coins came out of long term private storage in the pre y2k scare, when the coins became scarce, and prices jumped up to $7-10 oz. while silver rose to a mere $6.50 or so? However, the new purchasers were largely y2k hoarders, who have since dumped their silver back onto the market becasue y2k fears never happened. Supply and demand...

At about $5.00/oz, a 100 oz. .999 fine bar might cost $530, which is a $30 primium over spot, or $5.30/oz for the silver content.

At about $5/oz., I was able to buy $253.25 face value silver (times .72) or 182.34 oz. for $940.00, which comes to $5.15/oz for the silver content.

The coins then:

Cost less, no more is being made, comes in small & easily recognizable pieces with a large canvas bag... and you get more silver for your money... and has the potential to raise in value faster than actual silver due to collector value... seems a no brainer.

Call our host, and order today:
(prices vary daily, shipping may cost extra)
(primium percentages may drop with larger size orders)
(this is not a paid advertisement)
(I just know that this is how it all works...)
(800) 869-5115 toll free phone

ORO (07/03/00; 18:47:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 33132)
beesting - copies of discussion with Aristotle
Feel free to use my portion of this discussion, I hope Aristotle will allow you to do so as well.



SHIFTY (07/03/00; 18:28:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 33131)
Back from the movies
I was late and did not want to miss the first few min.
Will have to go tomorrow!
Better to see it on the 4th!

$hifty

beesting (07/03/00; 18:18:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 33130)
To Sir ORO msg#33113...."The Lie".
Sirs Aristotle and ORO,,,Real,Real,Real Great discussion!
ORO,with your permission I would like to make a few copies to give to friends.
Thanks in Advance....beesting.

beesting (07/03/00; 18:01:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 33129)
Value of an Old Coin!

Received my Sept. 2000 copy of Coin Prices Magazine today, and besides the usual listing of modern U.S. Coins and values, was a listing of coins used in the days before the United States declared its Independence from England.
Here is one that cought my eye:
HIGLEY OR GRANBY COPPERS:
DATE......GOOD......VG......FINE:
1737.....$8500.....$10,000..$12,500:
DESCRIPTION:
Looks to be about the size of a modern day U.S. quarter or a little bigger, one side has what looks like three torches en-circled by;" I AM GOOD COPPER".
The other side of the coin has what looks like a deer en-circled by;"VALUE ME AS YOU PLEASE".
(my comment:I love it!!!)

Now, Granby Connecticut is located about the middle of the state just below the Massachusetts state line and about(guessing)60 to 80 miles from Boston Bay, where the famous "TEA PARTY" was held.On the map it looks like a still rural area. If I could only talk my wife into going there for a few days with a metal detector and sneaking into some of those old historical spots.....hhhmmmmmmm.....onward!

If the maker of these coins marked,"VALUE ME AS YOU PLEASE" knew that by the year 2000 the value of "ONE"would equal:
About 40 ounces of Gold or,about 40 good horses,or about 250 calves, or about 100 chords of firewood, but would only buy a very small piece of land,might not be enough for a wedding,funeral, lawyers fee, or doctors fee,don't you think he/she may be surprised?
Food For Thought....beesting.

ET (07/03/00; 16:37:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 33128)
PrudentBear.com
http://216.46.231.211/credit.htm

Several quotes:

"Now that May data is available, we see that Fannie
Mae and Freddie Mac sharply increased credit
creation. For the month of May, these two powerful
credit creators had gross mortgage purchases of $32
billion, this compared to $17.5 billion during April.
In fact, May was the most aggressive month of mortgage
purchases since September. Perhaps it is coincidence
that these two periods of aggressive purchases
coincided with bouts of considerable financial
stress. Remembering back to September, spreads were
widening substantially, liquidity was disappearing in
the credit market, and the gold derivatives market
dislocated spectacularly."

"The fact that the GSE's returned to rampant credit
creation (joining the banking system!) the same month
that the Fed moved "aggressively" to increase
interest-rates 50 basis points, reinforces our
contention that Federal Reserve monetary policy has
become largely irrelevant."

"Apparently unappreciated by the Fed, it is the nature
of credit availability, and not the price of credit,
that has become the key issue for the great U.S.
financial and economic bubble."

SHIFTY (07/03/00; 16:10:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 33127)
Off to the movies!
Going to see The Patriot. Will let all know how it was later tonight. :)

$hifty

Turnaround (07/03/00; 15:13:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 33126)
Lacons
Journeyman (07/03/00; 10:29:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 33122)
Re: Theory of Money 1 @Turnaround msg#: 33115

"Sir Turnaround,

VERY intriguing paragraphs!!

A couple of impertinent and largely irrelevant questions:

1. Why did you use as your subject, "I don't trust you that much"?

2. Are you Martin Shubik?"

Dear Sir Journeyman,

1) The subject header was intend to provide a one-line rebuttal for a
two-volume work (MIT Press, I think?) How's that for economical? (smile)
I trust people in general, some more than others, but am quite unwilling to
allow just whomever to carry my wallet for me.

I posted this thinking perhaps Aristotle and others would find it of interest.
I don't have the order price of his book in 2002 dollars, perhaps under a $billion.

For myself? I view this work as yet another example of the debasement of intellect
that attends a debasement of what MS calls "money"- part of the "debauchery" our
predecessors spoke of.
Santa Fe Institute has a lot of wonderful people and has enabled fantastic contributions
in a variety of sciences, it saddens me to see them stoop so low for grants. From what
I read of the synoptic paper, MS needs some further grounding before attempting
this project. I wish we could ship ORO et al down there, but I don't think NSF grants
contain a gold clause.

2. See 1. ;-)



Leigh (07/03/00; 13:52:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 33125)
Al Fulchino
Dear Al: Just last month I was asking Peter (via e-mail) if he thought Aristotle was William Simon, the former Energy Czar and Treasury Secretary who died in early June. It had been many weeks since we'd heard from Aristotle, and when I saw poor Mr. Simon's list of accomplishments I couldn't help but think that he must have run around in the same circles as Aristotle. It was such a relief to have Ari post again, which proved he was indeed alive!

Peter would never have told you that story (he's a gentleman), but since you brought up the subject, I just thought I'd tell you about my wild guess!

Al Fulchino (07/03/00; 13:14:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 33124)
NetKing/Aristotle
Does anyone suppose Adam Hamilton is our Aristotle?

Journeyman (07/03/00; 10:34:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 33123)
Did markets and the people choose paper money over gold?

Question 3: Did markets and the people choose paper money over
gold? If not, who did?

It was the market which in a selective process, going
on for ages, finally assigned to the precious metals
gold and silver the character of money. For two hundred
years the governments have interfered with the market's
choice of the money medium. Even the most bigoted
etatists [statists -j.] do not venture to assert that
this interference has proved beneficial.

-Ludwig von Mises, Human Action A Treatise on Economics, Third
Revised Edition (Chicago, Illinois: Contemporary Books, Inc.
1966), pg. 422 [XVII. INDIRECT EXCHANGE 6. Cash-Induced and
Goods-Induced Changes in Purchasing Power -available also from
http://www.mises.org/humanaction.asp]

Regards,
Journeyman

In case you tuned in late, this post is Mises "answer" to
question 3. of the following six posed in an earlier post:

1. Why has the word "inflation" become confusing? What are the
results of this confusion?

2. What did Charles DeGaulle mean by "extravagant privilege?
What's another little-used word for it? What would happen if
"the privilege" were exercized world-wide?

3. Did markets and the people choose paper money over gold? If
not, who did?

4. Does government/Federal Reserve monetary control serve the
common good?

5. Is there enough gold for the world to go back on the gold
standard?

6. Is gold too expensive to be efficient for use as money?


Journeyman (07/03/00; 10:29:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 33122)
Re: Theory of Money 1 @Turnaround msg#: 33115

Sir Turnaround,

VERY intriguing paragraphs!!

A couple of impertinent and largely irrelevant questions:

1. Why did you use as your subject, "I don't trust you that much"?

2. Are you Martin Shubik?

Regards, j.


Leland (07/03/00; 07:03:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 33121)
Sharks are Cicrling, Beware...Got Gold?
July 2, 2000, 3:46PM

Big guys will be muscling into financial planning game

By SCOTT BURNS

His name IS Frank Terrelli. He is standing before a screen ablaze with a PowerPoint slide, his fingers
spread and pressed against each other, carefully addressing an assembly of some of America's
smartest and most successful financial planners -- a veritable brain trust of financial planning.

The occasion? The second Wealth Management Symposium sponsored by Undiscovered
Managers, a Dallas mutual fund and research boutique.

The fund's prime mover, Mark Hurley, rocked the boat last year when he published a paper
asserting that individual planners would soon be competing with, and perhaps overrun by, large
financial services firms. A transformation would sweep the industry as large companies tried, quite
literally, to capitalize on vast new wealth, Hurley said.

By Hurley's estimate, a client with $1 million worth of investment assets would provide a financial
services company with $7,500 in gross revenue per year and a startling $5,000 in profit. That profit,
in turn, would be worth $60,000 in new market capitalization for a publicly traded company --
enough to create a financial services gold rush.

As Hurley sees it, the opportunity for market capitalization will pit large companies against the small,
highly personal and idiosyncratic individual practices that have characterized financial planning in the
past.

Terrelli, dressed in a black three-button suit that barely allows sight of the silver-gray silk tie, may be
part of that transformation. With his black hair pulled back into a short ponytail, Terrelli looks like he
and actor Steven Seagal share the same tailor and barber.

The former accountant is telling the financial planners how myCFO.com will serve the very, very
rich.

How much money should you have to be considered very rich?

Lots. As you may suspect from the parking jams of personal jets at airports, the new market for
completely furnished, turnkey mansions and the clutter in yacht basins across America, the idea of
"rich" is a rapidly moving target these days.

Trillions in "new money" has shoved aside the quaint conceptions of wealth embodied by "old
money." Remember, "semi-affluent" is now defined as a net worth of $1 million to $10 million. (For a
column on the new categories of wealth, visit www.scottburns.com-

/991017SU.htm. To see where you rank for wealth, by age and percentile, visit
www.scottburns.com/000604SU.htm.)

"Technology will commoditize all those functions that people do that don't bring value added,"
Terrelli said. "I firmly believe that the Web and the Internet will change the way we live and work."

His words echo what presenters from Fidelity, AXA and American Express have said earlier about
reaching clients with less money.

Most of the skills that individual financial planners use will be trivialized by technology in the next two
or three years. Online advisers such as Financial Engines and others are automating the Web to
design portfolios for individuals with far less than $1 million.

Terrelli described how the myCFO Web site will provide complete, segmented management of your
finances so that the captain of your yacht (held in a corporation) will see all bills related to the yacht
on his portion of your Web service and approve them for payment. He won't, however, have access
to any other part of your financial picture.

Similarly, the executive director of your personal foundation will do the same with bills for the
foundation. Ditto your houses, investments, trusts, etc.

No one ever said being rich was simple.

MyCFO, Terrelli said, will replace the traditional "family office."

One of the planners asks who myCFO has in mind as customers? How wealthy should they be?
And what will his firm charge?

Terrelli says that a net worth of $20 million is the minimum, with $50 million "ideal." A client with a
net worth of about $100 million would pay an annual fee of about $400,000 for the service, he said.

The room suddenly bristles with raised eyebrows.

Does this mean anything for you and me?

Yes. Buy a larger mailbox now and avoid the rush later. While few will be solicited by myCFO, all
of us can expect as many offers for wealth and asset management from financial services firms as
we've had credit card offers from credit card companies.

(Thanks To Scott Burns, And Fair Use For Educational/Research Purposes Only.)

Leland (07/03/00; 05:35:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 33120)
USS John F. Kennedy, Part of Operation Sail 2000
http://www.inr2000.navy.mil/JFKpage.html
.

wolavka (07/03/00; 05:34:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 33119)
bp 1s' post is correct
Those I know have been moving into all forms of gold in taiwan. Watch asia.

Leland (07/03/00; 04:39:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 33118)
Sacagawea "Golden" Dollar -- An Update
http://foxmarketwire.com:80/062800/dollar.sml
"The scarcity of the new coins is not caused by impracticality. MEI coordinated
with the U.S. Mint to ensure the new golden dollar would work in vending
machines already rigged to take the Susan B. Anthony. Both coins have the same
weight, the same size and even the same electromagnetic signature." (More)



Netking (07/03/00; 03:57:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 33117)
Jason Happy
Jason Happy (33093)
A good narative for silver. However why not buy silver in bars eg 1kg etc, why the coinage as a preferred method of holding silver?




bp1 (07/03/00; 03:43:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 33116)
Some musings on Independence weekend
http://www.usagold.com
Title: gold--wealth--the transfer of wealth--the rise and decline of empires:

Sometimes we are so caught up with our daily worldly schemes,we become confused, perplexed when we can not discern certain phenomenas. The current world of gold is a perfect example. you know, I know, the CBs know, the people in the know know that gold IS true representation of wealth--not just another industrial commodity; and the current price of gold in terms of U.S. (fiat)dollar is cheap, dirty cheap. The major printing houses, that is, the important CBs in the world are selling their gold hoard( Australia, Canada, Belgium, Dutch,England, and maybe U.S.A.) Are these central bankers gone mad, insane or without any common knowledge of the past, the current and the future?

A little history, plus a little philosophy will help us escape the traping trees, thus see the whole forest.

About 200 years ago, Great Britain defeated China in a war dubbed as " opium war". As war compensation, China gave millions ounces of gold and silver to Britain, plus the territory of Hongkong ( actually it was a lease ), and Great Britain continued to export opium to China for silk, china, tea, and of course for gold, silver. After this opium war, the once mighty, proud Chinese empire declined, eventually collapsed. The rising of British empire truly established, and reached its peak in due course.

Now about two hundred years later, in 1997, Britain returned its crown jewel ( Hong Kong ) back to China. In 1998, Britain announced the shocking news of selling its gold hoard.

About two weeks ago, the People's Bank of China announced the purchasing of gold through a South African investment firm.

We know all the sales of gold from European countries have to go somewhere. Which country, nation and people has the monetary and spiritual strength defying the current fiat money regime to accumlate gold? The answer is obvious by now: the greater China ( mainland, Taiwan, HongKong ). The only difference between China now and Britain then is one used gun and warship, the other is using trade surplus.

Can we see the history evloving? Gold, the true wealth, is moving to its current destination. The flow and transfer of wealth, the decling of one empire and the rising of another.

" CBs are ready to release increasing amount of gold'should its price rises "; the selling of years accumlated gold by using the DUTCH auction method;the leasings; the hedges; the derivatives. They are all pieces of puzzles in the almighy GOD's hands. What goes around, comes around---Ying and Yang.

The sad thing is: People who are losing gold know they are losing the real wealth, the war, but still can not stop it! Actually they have to facilitate it. Thus they are called the cabal. That's called history!

For the true goldbug, your day will come, maybe sooner than you think, just have to wait for this part of history finished.

Turnaround (07/03/00; 02:11:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 33115)
I don't trust you that much
http://www.santafe.edu/sfi/publications/Working-Papers/00-03-021.pdf
This essay is purposely written without mathematical symbols and without references, 1
except for one. That is my two volumes on the Theory of Money and Financial Institutions
March 24, 2000

THE THEORY OF MONEY 1

Martin Shubik

Abstract: The basic role of fiat money in a dynamic economy is considered. Its role as a virtual
asset whose store of value properties are the outcome of the dynamics is explored and the role the
limits on the money supply and the bankruptcy laws in bounding prices are considered. The
actions of the government may serve to bound individual expectations.

THE CENTRAL ASPECTS OF MONETARY DYNAMICS

There are three basic aspects to the understanding of the central role of fiat money in a
modern economy. They are (1) the understanding of the violation of symmetry in the initial
injection of outside or government money into the economy; (2) the understanding of the
laws conservation of money and how and when they may be violated and (3) the understanding
of the dynamics of the mix of trust, custom, law, communication and information in maintaining
the worth of "worthless" paper or a mere abstraction of value in a dynamic economy.
Abstract money is a substitute for trust in trade. The rules of the game provided by the
laws and customs of the society using a symbolic fiat money can, under the appropriate
circumstances support a system dynamics where individual expectations that other individuals
will accept this intrinsically worthless paper or cypher will be self-fulfilling. The dynamics may
provide for the reinforcement of these beliefs which will provide for monetary stability.
2
The beliefs have two components and work on two sets of information. They are the
beliefs of the individual agent in the acceptability of the money to other agents and the beliefs of
the individual agents about the trustworthiness of the "referee" or the central bank or other agent
for the government which controls the money supply.
The central government is a critical differentiated agent in the running of a modern
economy even if its only role is to guarantee the soundness of the currency and maintain the rules
of the game (such as the commercial code) required to facilitate individual trade. An important
feature of the central government is that it is implicitly or explicitly in direct communication with
every economic agent in the economy. In contrast, in the generation of private credit between
two individual agents much special information must be generated. "Due diligence" is
performed to determine credit worthiness. Reputation helps to decide on prime names and lesser
names. Bank money is a form of credit where information and communication are more
routinized than in the arranging of individual credit. It is provided by a set of agents differing
both from individuals and the government. The banks and other financial institutions are larger
than mere individuals and smaller than the central government. They are far more visible in an
information and communication network than are individuals, but they are less visible than
government.
The acceptance of government money depends on the beliefs of a predominant part of the
society that the government is not going to run the printing presses. In a stable and reasonably
honest society it is cheaper and easier to trust the government that random strangers. In return
for this trust the government is able to provide a symbolic commodity which is accepted as a
means of exchange with the system dynamics converting it into a store of value. It becomes an
ideal transferrable paper gold or a substitute for the need for individual trust. If the central
government does not "cheat" this (possibly invisible) money behaves as though it were an ideal
gold.


Netking (07/03/00; 01:18:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 33114)
Gold boiled in oil...
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_00/hamilton070300.html
Gold boiled in oil...an interesting paradox....in Biblical days they boiled some of the Saints alive in oil until dead.....now it appears gold(looking 'dead') may boil in oil until alive.


ORO (07/03/00; 00:41:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 33113)
Aristotle - comments, installment 2
The "lie" has four components, the "barbarous relic", central bank, the stability of paper money, and obfuscation of the disparate nature of savings and investment. The dismissal of gold and free banking as a monetary system is often used as to avoid having to discuss its workings, which are self correcting. The damage that a central bank does to money and interest rate setting in the markets (whether paper or gold+paper gold) is so thoroughly ignored in today's bull market for the Fed, that seldom does one hear any discussion of a world without central banks. Paper debt money is capable of smoothing out ripples inherent in banking, but only at the expense of creating enormous imbalances that later induce collapse. The cycle is roughly 20-25 years of credit expansion followed by a 10 year adjustment through stagflation. Often, the cycle is as short as 5-6 years on the upswing. With much external support, the dollar has managed to survive another 20 years after the stabilization by Volcker - it does not mean that the apparent stability is here to stay, it only means that the current system is ripe for collapse.

Savings are not investment. When savings, a non-entrepreneurial allocation of resources, are deposited at a bank that is part of the central bank system, they automatically go into the entrepreneurial arena, and immediately start the process of wasting resources. In a paper money system savings can not be had at all, unless done in the form of goods purchased for later consumption and stored within reach. Banks, being entrepreneurial, invest the deposits (in gold banking with a central bank) entrepreneurially while diluting gold values with derivative substitutes. The existence of a central bank imposes the valuation of gold derived from inflation of paper gold as the competition among banks for solid credit is eliminated by the central bank's reward of emergency loans to the irresponsible bank that found itself over-leveraged – thus preventing the elimination of the irresponsible bank's fiduciary media. Since these are not eliminated, the volume of "good" fiduciary gold does not fall and the dilution becomes permanent. The savings that people hold at banks are not treated by them as investments, but that is what they are. They contain risks of default on top of the risk (rather than calling it risk we should call it certainty) of depreciation of fiduciary media.

Bonds and savings are contradictory terms. So are modern "savings accounts" one does not save promises, one saves assets; land, gold, housing, collectibles, equipment. The bulk of bank accounts are viewed by the depositors as savings, while treated by the banks as investments. The main tool of savings in the past, were gold and silver. The displacement of these with paper promises causes dilution during the long periods of monetary expansion, and causes a return to fair value only during the short periods of deflation of the paper gold.

In a world of debt currencies, where gold is not allowed legal tender status, currencies are only capable of providing the function of savings when they are paying sufficient interest so as to prevent people from saving in goods on-hand. The interest rate on savings media must only be sufficient to cover the saver's expectations of price inflation rate less that for storage costs (space, spoilage and effort), to induce the continued use of currency for the purpose of savings. When interest rates do not reach these levels, the saver will choose to replace currency accounts with basements stuffed with goods. This switch, once started, can not be easily reversed.

Investment is not savings. Investment is the putting of resources at risk for the prospect of future reward. By eliminating gold and silver as apparently effective means for savings (by the dillutive effects of paper versions of them), all people are forced to invest by putting their funds in a bank account and having banks invest the funds in a portfolio of loans. Alternatively, savers can put funds in government and other bonds. None of these solutions are true replacements of savings, since all are investments.

The various elements of the lie – the "fraud of paper money" – are there for you to contemplate. The smooth running of a Ponzi scheme during its expansion is not evidence of it being anything but the fraud that it is, it is only evidence of the fact that the fraud has not been exposed. One would expect that the fraud that is structurally inherent in the current monetary system (gold and its paper markets included) to survive longer when the dozen governments with the greatest resources act to keep it going. The fact of apparent "smooth running" is not at all a sign of the system being workable over the whole of a generation. So far, no monetary system other than straight precious metal accompanied by free banking (or without any banking at all) has ever survived more than 25 years without going through a deflationary or inflationary crisis. The period just before the system crumbles is usually one of high speed prosperity and of high rates of debt accumulation. The fact of apparent prosperity is not an indication of future conditions. Your exasperation, shared by may gold bugs, is to be expected, but is still misplaced.

I have said before that any debt money system can have its life extended at the cost of having a greater collapse when such a collapse is not avoidable. The cumulative damage done by debt money to the economy is not revealed spontaneously until the collapse. The central bank may attempt to slow the rate of damage and extend the "reckoning" to a later date, however, it has not the option of avoiding the damage, nor of preventing the "reckoning" at the end of the process. Failure of debt money systems is structurally assured, what remains uncertain are the timing, the rate of change, and the ultimate degree of damage.




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