Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...
The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.
ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 5/3/2000 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) ThaiGold (05/03/00; 23:57:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 29904) Addendum ... Add Solomon Weaver to that List... .........All:Kindly add Solomon Weaver to that fine List.!.Thanks.ThaiGold==================================================== ThaiGold (05/03/00; 23:51:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 29903) Thoughts From My Kitchen Attn: ALL =======================================================================.........5-03-2000To: ALLIt would be remiss of me, if I didn't post a little-something heretonight in acknowledgement and appreciation to those many fine postersof this Forum who posted Comments addressed to me during the day.Time doesn't permit me to respond individually, because I wish to postthis before the Next-Day-Rollover ... only a few minutes away.So, instead, I'll simply, humbly, address this message to All of You,and especially those on the following list: (A similar list of otherLurkers and Knights awaits me in by e-mail InBox). [The List]ORODKYGMSHIFTYSimply MeSteve HTopazAu BugTheStrangerSkipPeter AsherWhite HillsBeestingEconoclastBalck BladeHarley DavidsonTownCrierCertainly, if that isn't a "Who's Who" of this Forum, then I don't knowwhat is. Add to it, the senders of e-mails, and it rams home the pointto me, that the "M.A.S." is indeed a figment of my imagination.One of the things that strikes me most about this Forum, is it's Decorand Resiliency. Like the proverbial Thai KickBoxers in this paragraph:[KickBoxer Essay--Quote]Often on a stretcher. He will walk/touch beside itdeeply concerned for the recovery of his vanquishedcompanion. There will be no TV interview. Nothingto brag about nor ballyhoo to the fans and media.Just a quiet, somber, elegant exit from the arena.[KickBoxer Essay--UnQuote]And also, like those ever so gentlemanly KickBoxers, we here in theForum often get into verbal fisticuffs, yet somehow, for the good of all,we manage to have compassion, understanding, empathy and concilliation.We have witnessed that, First-Rate, even here, tonight, between Sir Farfeland Sir TheStranger. Let there be no mistake about it: We here in thisForum have our own strong convictions. And we defend those. And yet thruour marvelous resiliency, eventually absorb the thoughts of others andadopt/adapt them into our own in some way. And that a good thing. The wayit should be. The way it is. Here.To be sure, from this outpouring, I shall attempt to remain a small fixtureherein, and post relevance and silliness as seems appropriate or inappropriate,whichever comes first.And too, I'd be especially remiss if I did not, at this time, Reach-Out toFOA/Trail Guide (and to those Knights who strongly believe in his prolificand profound teachings herein). To simply say: He has taught me much, eventhough I often fail to admit that to myself. Please continue, as I apparentlystill have much to learn. From you, FOA. And from your many eloquent fans.So, now, it is time for me to post this heartfelt message to ALL and make:"Just a quiet, somber, elegant exit from the arena."For tonight.My favorite General, Douglas MacArthur said it best: "...I shall return."Oh... I almost forgot: The Kitchen is cooking a wonderfulold traditional Indian dish tonight: SourGrapes and Crow.And now it's ready for me to sit down and eat some.Cordially,ThaiGoldThaiRanch@OperaMail.Com============================================================================ Solomon Weaver (05/03/00; 23:29:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 29902) Willo and others.. WilloTheWarthog welcome to our round table....it is refreshing to see some Euroideas looking at USA from your side...from the very subtle difference in your english usage, I suspect, dear Knight that you are personally translating these tidbits for us...if so, Kudos on the work...wie sooscht chunte wir eppis vo der Basler Zititg uuf English uebercho? (pardon my Walliser diitsch)ThaiGold - great forgiveness for misspellings...and you are a great knight as many have proven to you today. Don't underestimate the extent that your ideas are read and pondered...YGM - gee you sounded today like you are starting to believe too that "silver is the poor man's gold". I am not so sure that silver will ever revert to historical norms of 20/1. But one indicator is that best cash costs for gold mining run in the range of $180 and for silver in the range of $4 which fits today's ratio. My opinion is that any gold bug would do well to have some silver on hand...then if silver makes a large spike (and attracts the beenie mentality sheeple who storm the pawn shops) you can unload silver at a nice premium and "trade" for gold (no taxes). Back in the Hunt days it seems that people would actually accept junk coins as payment and knew the going rate....Imagine what this level of interest would now do to silver!!! Why buy a lotto ticket when you can buy silver...even the poor man loves to speculate....is there less pride of ownership in silver than gold...for the little guy?Stranger, ORO, and all....it seems that NEM owners are stepping up to the plate lately....ORO I am always facinated by your pragmatic approach of physical gold as "insurance" but PM derivatives (including stocks) on shorter term plays (keeps life fun and hopefully profitable) I find this recent trend with NEM very bullish for gold because it shows that stock investors (who do not usually read gold sites) are "remembering" the old "wisdom" that gold does well in times of crisis....NEM is already highly leveraged to an upmove in gold...and now it is even responding even with gold down. Gold getting close to 52 week lows and NEM close to 52 week highs!!!..now all we need are some of those lemming journalists who report on trends belatedly to start making comments on why "gold is the place to be". This also reminds me of the fact that the new "golden dollar" has not a single milligram of gold but it's very name is a subtle "remonitization" of gold....this completely debased coin is a reminder of the myth that never really got destroyed..."gold is money".Town Crier really loved your rock climbing analogy...because rock climbers are fanatics just like gold bugs (smile).Trail Guide would love to hear your opinions about the rumor known many years back that June 99 (and postponed to June 00) would be a "planned shift" in the "freedom" of gold.Good night or good morning allPoor old Solomon Bonedaddy (05/03/00; 23:24:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 29901) May I serve as one of the forum Crack Pots? I really am harmless, but quite mad, just the same. You see, I grew up in a time when cars had large hood ornaments and small monthly payments and families took meals together around the dining room table. People often got turned down when applying for credit. Teenagers took guns to school..., so they could go bird hunting on the way home.Childrens faces adorned silver lockets instead of milk cartons.Boy Scout leaders understood the real meaning of morally "straight".Money was made out of, or backed by, something of value.A haircut didn't look like a social experiment.People dressed as well as they could afford.Babies didn't have babies.Underware was worn "under" something.Perversion could be defined.There was GOLD in Fort Knox.Felons served terms in the big house, not the State House.Sex wasn't fatal.It took a family, not a village.A jar of urine didn't pass for art.Fathers day wasn't so confusing.It was rare to meet a man who had a weak hand shake and a butt wider than his shoulders.I am at a terrible disadvantage in todays America. I still think GOLD is money. Obviously, no one in their right mind would agree. schippi (05/03/00; 22:40:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 29900) XAU Vs select Gold Chart http://www.SelectSectors.com/xaugld3mth.gif 36 out of 38 Select Sectors blood red. only Gold & Food Up! Chris Powell (05/03/00; 21:47:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 29899) Morgan's gold derivative position gets huge http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/446? Reginald H. Howe examines the burgeoning gold derivative position of Morgan Guaranty Trust Co. and concludes that the firm probably wouldn't have taken on such enormous risk without the encouragement of the U.S. government.To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by emailand get them immediately so you don't haveto go look for them, send an email to:gata-subscribe@eGroups.com SteveH (05/03/00; 21:26:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 29898) Very clear repost www.kitco.com repost:Date: Wed May 03 2000 23:12JP (Arby-Your question--Why the Dollar is hitting new high's when the bond and equity markets are ) ID#10841:Copyright © 2000 JP/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedtanking ? The final phase prior to a financial panic is always identified by a rising Dollar,rising interest rates and tanking equity markets. Why? The dollar is rising because of capital shortages around the globe in Dollar debt instruments. Countries just don't have the Dollars to pay their debts. Some will borrow Dollars at any price, some will default. With foreign currencies tanking,foreign central banks are forced to sell their massive hoard of US treasury bills to meet increased domestic demand for Dollars as well as imposing exchange controls to protect their domestic currencies.. When these Treasury bills are sold on the open market,US interest rates will rise and equity prices will decline. Also, Dollar short covering and rising rates will push the Dollar even higher. Gold is getting ready to move substantially higher as the Dow declines because money coming out of equities is seeking safety. We may be seeing interest rates, the Dollar and gold all rising at the same time as stock prices are declining. After the financial panic is over, say the Dow substantially at lower levels and a massive recession is spreading, the dollar and interest rates will decline to some very low levels and gold will keep on rising. canamami (05/03/00; 21:11:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 29897) The Euro I sometimes read Peter Cook of the Globe (though not recently), who often addresses Euro issues, and listen to Don Coxe's telephone conference calls, and he often deals with the Euro. I also have my own training, which addresses certain aspects of the euro.Various points:1. Euroland is substantially a closed economy, so a declining currency is not as serious as one would think. Within Euroland, things are fairly stable, and other countries do want in, notwithstanding the decline in the euro. (An aside: one concern I had with FOA's theories concerning hyperinflation is that the US is also substantially a closed economy, so even a big decline in the $US is not as important....similar to Euroland and the decline of the Euro).2. The euro was created by conservative European governments; the current governments are now almost all (if not all) socialist. They are not as committed to the euro, and if they are committed it is only insofar as they may believe the euro advances their agenda. There may be friction if conservatives start to regain power in several countries. Also, the new leader of the CDU in Germany is an Ossie, and the first Protestant leader of the CDU. She is a nationalist and a populist who wants to take back power from Brussels and Europe generally; more in the old Prussian tradition than in the pan-European tradition of Wessie Catholics like Adenauer and Kohl.3. There are weak links in Euroland like Italy, which only got in because of fudging the books, crafty leadership, times were good, and the others wanted it in. Now Italy can't stay within the Euro criteria. It can't be let go now. Its weakness undermines other countries' political willingness to toe the line, and generally undermines the Euro's credibility.4. Euro is now more structurally rigid and socialist due to pan-European institutions. It is certainly more rigid and socialist than the US.5. Notwithstanding its problems, Euroland runs a trade surplus and has a high savings rate, unlike the US. By these traditional indicia, the Euro is undervalued and should be ready to move up against the dollar.6. The influx of money from Europe helps hold up the dollar, and helps finance the US boom.7. When the Euro goes up, the markets go down. If the Euro is weak, the US markets do well. A sudden rise in the Euro could cause a "babybear" in the markets.8. There may have been signs of capitulation re the Euro; some fund managers no longer bother hedging against its rise. The bottom might be in.9. Re Oro's theory that dollar-denominated debt is being converted to Euro-denominated debt: How does one ascertain whether this is actually occurring? Are there bank statements, etc., demonstating this trend? TheStranger (05/03/00; 20:43:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 29896) aunuggets and Gandalf Actually, I would advise just the opposite. Read all you can get your hands on, learn to remember who said what and then hope to heck you have read enough. I am not sure I can even define common sense, but I sure as heck know what knowledge is. PH in LA (05/03/00; 20:25:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 29895) "... as the euro slides towards zero" ??? http://www.siliconinvestor.com/insight/contrarian/ "The big news today was in the foreign exchange arena, where the euro resumed its slide toward zero, as it briefly broke 89 cents and closed at around 89 1/2 cents. There were some rumblings out of Europe about the potential for a "no" vote out of Denmark, which could be followed by a "no" vote out of Sweden, followed by the United Kingdom abandoning any thought of an EMU referendum. So the crisis is beginning to build for the euro. "The paper it's printed on. . . Regular readers know that after I got head-faked for the first two weeks of the euro's existence, I've been a pretty severe critic of the ECB authorities. As I've often stated, I felt there was a decent chance that in tough economic times the euro would come unstuck, as it was hard to see all the countries pulling on the same oar. The fact that it's behaved so poorly in boom times has always struck me as a harbinger of trouble to come. Recently, the authorities drew a line in the sand at 95 or 96 and I stated at the time that they would be tested, and they are being tested. "The question is: Will they figure out a way to stabilize the euro and turn it into a real currency, or is it going to disintegrate before our very eyes? Obviously, that would have ramifications for gold and the dollar. I also believe that after we finish destroying the euro, the dollar will be next, which seems hard to believe, but I think you can count on that happening as well." William FleckensteinThis looks like a pretty conventional analysis of the Euro as it must be looking to many that don't follow the interpretations offered at this forum. Of course, when all is said and done, much of what powers the markets is little more than perception, anyway. Actually, I greatly prefer ORO's thoughts (even though I often come away with the impression that I only half understand them). And certainly, FOA would hardly concur with most of Fleckenstein's comments. Fleck does have a certain eye-catching turn of phrase, though... "the euro resumed its slide toward zero..."Sure seems like something has to give in this arena, though, and soon. Today's Spanish peseta traded at 186.5 per US dollar, a rate that I have never seen, even since my first trip to Spain in 1985 when I recall a rate of 185 pesetas per US dollar. Here's hoping that FOA shines some light on this subject when he next posts.PH in LA aunuggets (05/03/00; 20:01:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 29894) Farfel - APH is not a happy camper ! Oh, well ! 8^o aunuggets (05/03/00; 19:56:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 29893) Gandalf the White HA HA HA HA HA.....Check mate ! (kidding) As all the others who share their thoughts, ideas, and knowledge here on the forum, I sincerely appreciate all of your contributions. Gandalf the White (05/03/00; 19:23:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 29892) SIR Aunuggets' "challenge" ? I hesitate to dare say that I agree with Thou ?<;-) Farfel (05/03/00; 19:16:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 29891) @AUNUGGETS...APH is not a happy camper APH writes:Date: Wed May 03 2000 20:04APH (re: Farfel) ID#7223:Copyright © 2000 APH/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved Once again farfel posts only half the truth, this time he posted the two ends but failed to provide the middle, he coppied the 4/26 & 5/3 posts but missed, I assume purposely, the 4/29 post referring to the bounce. enough of farfel. Date: Sat Apr 29 2000 13:11 APH ( Trading ) ID#7223: Gold - Anytime in the month of May June Gold will be a major low risk long term entry below 250 with a probable bottom in the 244 area. 272 -270 will provide a bounce but will likely not hold, if the xau were holding or going up now I be more encouraged. The gold funds really are not holding to badly. Any scale in buying now in the funds is subject to a 10% drawdown, you nay want live with that in case of a surprise up move. ---------Farfel Says:But here's the problem, APH, on April 26th, you dramatically declared to all gold investors at Kitco that gold would plummet to below 250 with a dramatic reversal.So if I am operating under your influence as one of your "disciples," then I would have sold my gold/XAU holdings that very day of April 26 and missed this recent nice gold jump.So what good does your little April 29th update do me? Especially since you posted it on a Saturday, a non-trading day?It's too late, APH, as one of your disciples, I've already sold my gold and my XAU on account of your technical babble influences. I did so on April 26 and worse yet, I didn't even bother to read Kitco over the weekend, so I missed your "hedged bet."Now you tell me over the weekend that a bounce is coming?APH, just admit that you often post contradictory forecasts. Of course, most technicians do it, so that way they can pull out any one of several prognostications they've made over a period of several days and say, "See, I predicted correctly and here's my post proving it." It is total duplicity, nothing less.ThanksF* aunuggets (05/03/00; 19:03:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 29890) Gandalf the White My own "common sense" sir, dictates that I occasionally circumvent "political correctness" for the purpose of giving others something to consider. "If we always agreed, one of us would be unnecessary......" (grin) SHIFTY (05/03/00; 19:01:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 29889) N.Y PONZI Nasdaq 3,707.31 + Dow 10,480.13 = 14,187.44 divide by 2 = 7,093.72 PonziThe Ponzi was down 164.56 N.Y Ponzi points ! TownCrier (05/03/00; 18:57:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 29888) Overdue thoughts for Sir ThaiGold... http://www.usagold.com/HallDiscussion.html You remarked recently:"...And I believe that it is essential, nay the obligation, of postershere in this forum to see and hear and debate all sides of the Goldand PM issue. Lest they make dumb mistakes as I did. In spades."And then in a following post you added:"Is it any wonder that many posters lose interest and fade away fromthe Forum. It seems often merely a Mutual Admiration Society, whichremains closed to new-ideas and new-thinkings. Unless a poster is oneof the In-Crowd, or FOA-Worshipper, he is relegated to Court-Jesterstatus, totally ignored, or simply considered a CrackPot."There is no question in my own mind that the dynamic of the Forum is enhanced considerably by the input of new posters, especially those novices that are newly arrived with simple thoughts and questions about the world of gold economics. In regard to your comment that the Forum "seems often merely a Mutual Admiration Society, which remains closed to new-ideas and new-thinkings" I am inclined to think otherwise, and the link I have provided is ample evidence supporting my contrary opinion. Given the unique conditions of the gold market has it has evolved in modern days, there are relatively speaking very few individuals that can lay claim to a reasonable grasp of the general gold market dynamics, and far fewer with comprehensive understanding of the subtle yet important intricacies. Whether they realize it or not, it is my opinion that many of the regular posters here know more about the intricacies of the gold sector than most financial analysts understand their own chosen field of employment. I expect that some of these posters came to the table with their comprehension already in hand, while others attained that grasp while here. I think it is fair to say that they (myself included) have all reached new levels of understanding by the information and opinions shared here. (I am equally certain that there are silent non-posters among us who have the same or greater "expert" status in the realm of gold market comprehension.)As it is, with the aid of the many fine thinkers that willingly share their thoughts, the body of knowledge and insight into the more obscure elements of the gold market and international monetary intrigue has evolved and developed to a remarkable level throughout the brief life of this discussion forum. To the casual observer, the regular posters here may indeed seem like a cliquish (clique-ish?) group of a "Mutual Admiration Society" as you say. But that is understandable given that many of them have been here since the earliest days and are all working toward a common goal of yet greater comprehension with few alternative avenues to get there than reliance upon each other. Such is the nature of this specialized field of study. (That is not to imply that it is beyond the common-sense ability of the world's smallest and humblest people to engage in the prudent and natural act of buying gold as a wealth asset. Such an equation solves itself with little need for debate on the matter.)Seeing that there has been distinct progress in the evolution of the forum's collective fundamental understanding in both scope and depth over a period of time through building upon each others efforts at "stretching the envelope", it should be understandable that some of the "regulars" in the "M.A.S." do not take the effort upon themselves to revisit past items of discussion. This is one area where the newer visitors can provide a very valuable service. By asking the basic questions, they give a chance for some of the others to contrubute to the overall effort of getting EVERYONE over the top. When a team is scaling a cliff, it is up to each man to help the one below. And in monitoring the exchange as these most fundamental issues are revisited, it gives those that are "farther up" a chance to retest or reaffirm the validity of past progress. You just never know when someone "down below" might catch a glimpse of a faster or easier route to the top, thus benefiting the whole team in yet another way. Those who are higher may indeed find that a retracement and redirection is necessary thanks to those who are arriving new to the climb.As for me, I am just the camp director at the base of the cliff, providing weather reports and supplies to the real climbers. And what is the forecast, you ask? The same as it has been for months..."It is a beautiful day to join the climb. Please feel free to join the team and travel at your own pace."Seeing that you have not been satisfied with the efforts/assistance of the others, perhaps I may offer a thought or two. In a recent post you asked:"Would/Could a well-managed GoldMine be of thatcategory.?. Is a GoldMine not the *only* source of new Gold.?.Will the owners/shareholders not be rewarded and partake of that.?.Are they not frequently/regularly paid these dividends of wealth.?.My Newmont shares do so. What of your/his/her/their, Kruggerands.?."I see your point. Please recognize that you are comparing plants to the fruits they bear. It may indeed be satisfying for a person to own some branches of the cherry tree for the dividends of flowers that they provide...which may or may not be successfully transformed into the real weath of cherries. Very few people, however, feel that the cherries they choose to acquire by any means are inferior because they do not themselves pay the dividends of cherry trees. (Although if you think about it, you will surely see that being real wealth, through "capital appreciation" and purposeful intent, cherries can in fact produce a cherry tree if desired by the owner of the cherries.) So it is with gold mines and gold.Your final queston was:"One last (serious) question to ponder, that puzzles me greatly:In the FDR Confiscation Proclamation, (you posted earlier) it *mentions*silver; but silver was apparently *not* confiscated.!. I'm wonder why.?.Can you or anyone in the Forum shed some light on the Non-Confiscationof Silver, back in the 1933 era.?.And so, for those amongst us inclined toward "pre-1933" Gold coins,wouldn't they be wise to possibly consider silver instead.?. Or evenperhaps, yuk, Silver Mining Shares..."To assist with my response, allow me to turn to an e-mail message I answered a number of weeks ago when someone had asked the similar good question: "I understand the point of owning uncirculated pre-33 Liberties and Saints. However, with respect to silver, were uncirculated Morgan Dollars exempted from the government confiscation in 1933? What is your ideas on holding uncirculated Morgan Dollars at this time?"The following text is from my some of my thoughts offered in reply. And as I suggested to this other individual, you may or may not find my commentary to your satisfaction. I hope at the least it serves as a springboard to your further thought and investigation on the matter.The 1933 Executive Order signed by FDR called in the gold coins and bullion,subject to certain conditions and exemptions.Silver coins, circulated or not, were not of interest to the government atthat time, and remained in circularion until the end of 1964. You can verifythat by looking at any jar of older coins you might have. Dimes, quarters,half-dollars, and dollars dated 1965 and later all have a copper center witha nickel-alloy cladding. (From the edge they look like Oreo cookies.) If youhave any dated 1964 (or earlier), they will be solid silver alloy. These are arare find in your daily change because they have been hoarded out ofcirculation. (A phenomenon first described by Sir Thomas Gresham severalhundred years ago...known as Gresham's Law.) Rarity notwithstanding, thevery existance of these silver coins until 1964 is your modern proof thatsilver was not desired by the government...it was simply not needed tosettle international trade, and was not the fundamental source of difficultywhen bank runs plagued the nation in the late 1920's and early 1930's.The only reason silver Morgan dollars (circulated or not) did not surviveuntil 1964 along with all of the other coinage is simply that the governmentchanged the design of the coin...just as they did with many others. Rememberthe old silver Mercury Dimes? They became the silver Roosevelt dimes until1964. Similary, the silver Walking Liberty Half-dollars were redesigned tobecome the silver Benjamin Franklin/Liberty Bell half-dollars until they in turngave way for the Kennedy half-dollar. The Silver Morgans became silverLiberties, (off-hand I'm not sure what year) which then became the Eisenhowersilver dollar, and eventually after the 1965 switch to copper/nickel theywere replaced by the Susan B. Anthony, and now the Sacajawea(sp?).My personal opinion on holding the Morgans is that it is perfectly fine forindividuals that understand the intricacies of the numismatic world (rarecoin collecting). As a bulk investment or diversification into preciousmetals, silver bullion is much more accessible and liquid if silver is whatyou feel you must have. But once again, my personal opinion is that goldreigns supreme. By selecting the competitively-priced historic gold coinsover the modern bullion coins, you simply give yourself the added protectionof coming under the umbrella of precedent against any future attempt at agold confiscation. You would be more likely to lawfully retain ownership andpossession of your gold, and would profit/benefit from any subsequent run-upin the price of gold.[Under government rules of takings, the property owner must be fairly compensated for the value of the property being taken. And unlike standard bullion coins, the owners of historic coins (such as the pre-33 coins offered by MK through Centennial) could easily keep the appraisal process tied up for years arguing over the artistic and historic merits and fair price for each and every single pre-33 gold coin...a hassle the government will not likely invite even in the most urgent and dire of situations. At current low premiums, this is a very small price to pay to accomplish peace of mind against confiscation...much better (in my opinion) that the alternative of owning no gold at all in favor of something else that would be perceived as less desirable for confiscation.]I hope this helps.Thank you for your interest in our services at USAGOLD and CentennialPrecious Metals! Gandalf the White (05/03/00; 18:27:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 29887) aunuggets (05/03/00; 18:21:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 29886) you pontificate "But remember that the "Wizards" cannot give you anything you have had all along........your common sense."******HEAR HEAR !! This Wiz only asks that one uses their "common sense" !<;-) aunuggets (05/03/00; 18:21:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 29886) Farfel, Stranger, others RE: APH and other "forecasts" I think many of us have come to the realization that most "forecasts", whatever their source, when linked to "technical analysis" are usually, at some point, "hedged" with opposing forecasts, blind statements, SWAG indicators (scientific wild assed guessing), ad nauseum. For all the graphs, spikes, heads, dips, spikes, peaks, waves, etc., find ONE that is CONSISTENTLY correct just 51 percent of the time, and you're all set. Unfortunately, technical analysis can only happen after the fact, making it nothing more than "history". Though we may learn as "history repeats", we also learn as "history" does not ! Forecasters and Fortune Tellers are a dime a dozen in all walks of life, and once the "spin" is "technically analyzed" (grin), the little man is magically exposed behind the curtain. But remember that the "Wizards" cannot give you anything you have had all along........your common sense. Harley Davidson (05/03/00; 18:19:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 29885) Stranger... And I just read your latest post. 'Nuf said, I guess.Thanks. SteveH (05/03/00; 18:18:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 29884) Gold up $1.9 Does that make $6 in the last three days? She is moving up under the radar screen. Harley Davidson (05/03/00; 18:16:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 29883) Stranger... Personally, I prefer decorum and truth, and took the opportunity to "vote" my preference. You said "But I would be quick to eject anybody who deliberately tried to mislead." I say, Absolutely! And I'm sure the rulers of this forum can and will speak out as the need requires. TheStranger (05/03/00; 18:07:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 29882) Harley Sorry, Harley. I only just now read your post. I appreciate your support, but Farfel's right. We are old friends. Somebody once said we should take our debates off-site, and maybe they are right. We are both given to hyperventilation but neither means any disrespect to the room. Anyway, thanks for coming to my defense and sorry for the distraction. TheStranger (05/03/00; 17:58:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 29881) Farfel Yes, I agree. From what you have shown us, Mr. APH is revising his record as he goes along. As I almost never visit the Kitco forum, I do not recall the APH handle.However, ANYONE who tries to call day-to-day movements in anything is waisting your time. I posted last night about how I think the next few days in the stock market are going to rattle some teeth, but that sort of thing is always just conjecture, no matter who it is from. I know you know all of this, David. I guess I am just making conversation. Anyway, thank you for making the point. If I had an investment forum I think I would allow lots of hystrionics and maybe even name-calling. But I would be quick to eject anybody who deliberately tried to mislead. To hell with decorum, I want the truth. Harley Davidson (05/03/00; 17:58:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 29880) Sir Farfel... Well, what ever you do...keep that sense of humor. Spanking, indeed! Farfel (05/03/00; 17:48:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 29879) @HARLEY DAVIDSON...re: my banishment from KITCO Resulted from my loss of emotional control, a kind of Tourettes Syndrome that often afflicts long beleaguered, long suffering gold investors.Bart Kitner did the right thing, he has to control his forum and preserve proper decorum.I was a bad boy and when I told my wife, she spanked me.Rather enjoyed it, I must say.ThanksF* Farfel (05/03/00; 17:43:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 29878) @HARLEY DAVIDSON...re: The Stranger No ad hominem intended toward the Stranger, you misinterpret. Sarcasm yes! But defintely no ad hominem.We go way back and have had many interesting fiery discussions on economics topics.In fact, I am expecting the Stranger to arrive for a great dinner my wife just cooked up...the only problem is he is a stranger so I have no idea who we are waiting for.(ho, ho, ho) ThanksF* Harley Davidson (05/03/00; 17:35:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 29877) (No Subject) Well well well. I'm just catching up on the posts from the last couple of days and there sure has been a lot going on and I would like to respond, not in any particular order.Elwood!!!, a sincere well done on your web site. High scores for content and presentation. You deserve a full membership to the secret society of Web Masters extraodinare. Unfortunately, the only other member, that I know of, is our very own Town Crier so you are in good company! Personally, I know just enough to be dangerous. (smile)Sir Cavan Man, your msg# 29799Nicely done, brother. Believe it or not, an accurate definition of "the Church" is not common knowledge. Probably directly proportional to the number of people who read, and study, the bible.The Farfel meister, first I want to say I look forward to, and enjoy, your posts...most of the time. However, when they take on the characteristic of ad hominem attack towards a "fellow knight", I come away disappointed as you are capable of so much more. Such style only detracts from the reason and logic of the argument you otherwise present so well.I doubt that The Stranger is a Barrick guru. I don't believe The Stranger thinks he is a Barrick guru. So such reference is either sarcastic and intended to inflame, or simply inaccurate and ultimately brings discredit to the author. On another thought, I didn't know it was possible for anyone to do anything that could result in being banned from Kitco. I don't know why and its not my business. Just know it would be a loss to many if such were to happen here.Sir Tai Gold, you have probably forgotten more about the subjects discussed here than I will ever know. Sir White Hills put it very well in his msg#: 29847: "Some speak and some listen. To listen is to learn and to speak is to teach. The most amazing part of this forum is that the quality of thought and writing is world class and is only available here and it is free. No where else have I found the TRUTH as offered here. I listen and act." I like to quote others because they usually do a much better job of expressing what I think or feel.Bottom line? Don't judge how much your appreciated by the volume or quality of response you get to your posts. What you have to say touches all of those who read it; those who, like your self, post here as well as the countless people who simply lurk.To all, thank you for all the thoughts and insights you so freely share. Farfel (05/03/00; 17:23:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 29876) @STRANGER re: APH forecast...last point. And the worst thing is this:He completely reinvents his April 26 forecast by stating today: "yesterday's anticipated rally off the low 270's."What is he talking about? As per his post a week ago, he never anticipated a rally off the low 270's, none whatsoever. He essentially believed gold was headed straight for a level below 250. I mean, I can read, can you?No doubt once it reached a sub-250 price, then he would conveniently forget to mention any violent reversal again, and probably offer yet another projection for gold to move toward 210 and so forth and so on.It is nothing more than spin, reshaped constantly in a manner that depends on the forgetfulness of the readers.But call a spade a spade, it is gold short spin cast as neutral analysis.And every time one of these "gurus" is vindicated, another nail is hammered into gold's coffin.Isn't it time to throw out the coffin and make gold purchases because it simply makes compelling sense today especially given the idiocy running rampant in the mainstream stocks?ThanksF* ced_s (05/03/00; 17:11:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 29875) Leigh, thanks, I hadn't noticed It's my feeling TPTB have to hide their manipulations fromthe general public. I would like to see the more giftedwriters in all the gold related forums submitt letters totheir newspapers. Maybe the politicians would be forced to take notice. I hope my letter just broke the ice enough to tempt others to jump in.Thanks again Ed Farfel (05/03/00; 17:06:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 29874) @STRANGER, please closely examine these two APH posts again Date: Wed Apr 26 2000 20:56 APH ( Trading - Gold ) ID#7223: "Its always Darkest before the Dawn" or so they say, it may be true this time. Gold looks sick and going to get a little sicker. I doubt if 272 is going to hold. Based on monthly charts it looks like we are going to test and exceed the monthly lows at 250. But from there should come a new dawn. The best possilbe out come is a spike low ending between 250 - 245. Once the market is in that range I'm looking for a violent reversal back up. This could happen as soon as tomorrow. Keep your power dry, have no fear, pull the trigger on any quick moves under 250. ------------------------------------------------------ Date: Wed May 03 2000 11:11 APH ( Trading ) ID#7223: Gold - Yesterday's anticapted rally off the the low 270s area in the June contract is failing, yesterdays move up did more harm then good, it now allows for more of this endless drift down, sub 50 in the xau and sub 250 gold are still ahead. ----------Farfel says:Now isn't it interesting to note that seven days ago, he declared that gold would dive from 270 and drop under 250, then reverse violently back.However, in fact gold continues to move up (now around 278 spot), negating his analysis.So today he makes another extremely negative gold projection for gold below 250 BUT THIS TIME DOES NOT MENTION HIS EARLIER FORECAST OF A VIOLENT REVERSAL BACK? Why the omission of such pertinent info if he is trying to offer impartial chart analysis? Answer: he wants to scare investors thereby realizing his projections. The sad thing is these guys attain guru status on gold forums and gurus can create self-fulfilling prophecies if they are right enough times and people forget when they are completely wrong. Technicians make so many calls from one day to the next that hardly anybody can remember their predictions.These guys have been doing this now for several years, all the while calling these concerted gold scare assaults: "chart analysis." I say, nonsense, it is gold shorting utilizing biased technical analysis IMHO.ThanksF* ORO (05/03/00; 16:15:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 29873) Wiz - PPT inactive There was no sign of PPT action on the XAU or the HUI. The short squeeze in these stocks at yesterday's last hour (particularly SA ADRs), however, has loosened and put prices back into normal trend.Gold paper markets:Lease rate behavior indicates:There was producer sellingThere was spec short coveringNo sign of massive dumping (yet)Pt and Pd are being driven by a physical short squeeze of the type that closed down TOCOM Pd trading. Paper is being sold into the ground while physical can't be had. Familliar scenario? Did not FOA/ANOTHER indicate that was how gold will go?Stock market saw some possible PPT pumping towards the close.Currencies - still waiting for the next BIS release. If trends continue as before, there should be a 20% expansion in Euro debt and cash outstanding coupled with a further deterioration in the dollar debt position. The dollar spike indicates that the US current accounts deficit is not large enough to substitute for the big float deflation. Non US dollar debt is most probably deflating now, going from the anemic 7% growth rate to negative rates - i.e. contraction. The Big Float X-M3 figure (X denoting outside the US) was contracting by 1.5% in the Q3 statistics. If the last trend held, then we would probably have a further 3-5% contraction at annual rates. This would bring the dollar deficit in the global bank system (outside the US) to a year 2000 deficit of $500 billion to $600 billion. Without an investment fund flow reversal, the US current accounts will supply only some $400 billion, perhaps slightly more if we have another spurt of consumer buying here in the US. The $100-200 billion deficit may end up being covered by financial flows leaving the US. The spike in the dollar is a clear indicator that the current rates of trade deficits and income flow are not enough. Balance would require some unwinding of the foreign investment in the US, or of the carry trades into the US. Alternatively, CB selling of dollars could help. So far, only Italy and France are selling dollars, the Budesbank is refraining from action, just selling its interest income. BOJ was buying like crazy at the end of last year and in the first quarter.Barring a retraction of investment flows from abroad, driven by reversal in relative interest rates or corporate return on assets, (which are both unlikely still, though corporate returns will lag if the stock market stops rising), the US trade and income deficit can grow to $450 billion before dollar weakness would show up. If the ECB or the BOJ raise rates so as to reverse the balance with the US, then the US will suffer a withdrawal of funds that would eradicate the financial markets. In order to maintain a downdraft in the Euro, US rates must rise at least twice as quickly as Euro rates. TownCrier (05/03/00; 15:39:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 29872) Additional remark to MK's morning market report on gold sale totals... USAGOLD (Sir MK) said:"As it now stands, of the 2000 tonnes in gold sales agreed upon by the world's central bankers vis a vis the Washington Agreement, the Swiss will sell 1300 tonnes, the Dutch will sell 100 tonnes this year and another 200 tonnes over the remaining four years of the accord, and the United Kingdom will sell 365 tonnes. That amounts to 1965 of the 2000 tonnes agreed upon. There will be few if any official-sector surprises over the next four years -- a bullish backdrop for gold investors in the weeks and months to come."Not mentioned in the commentary above, but certainly in need of inclusion is the Austrian sales that were also recently announced...largely to feed the Austrian Mint it would seem. Thirty tonnes were allocated to other parties in 1999 on a forward basis, and the indication is that 60 more tonnes must be allocated within the framework of the Washington Agreement prior to September 2004. Given MK's accurate figures, we can see that the 60 tonnes from Austria not only rounds out the full 2000 tonne Washington Agreement allotment, but actually puts the figure over by exactly 25 tonnes...the equivalent of one typical UK auction allotment. Leigh (05/03/00; 15:28:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 29871) ced_s Did you read the latest e-mail from LeMetropoleCafe? Bill Murphy reprinted your letter for everyone to read! TheStranger (05/03/00; 15:01:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 29870) Farfel I respect the decision, too. (I'M JUST KIDDING!)It is their loss and our gain, if you ask me. Still, with respect to Barrick, you are guessing at what you do not know for sure. If you are right, Randall Oliphant may wind up in jail for fraud. And for what? So that he could pull one over on his own stockholders? It doesn't add up.On the other hand, if Barrick is now leveraged TO gold, as their most recent press releases on the subject categorically (your word) declare, then the stock may be a rare value indeed.As to my being wrong "again", I have no idea what you mean. Black Blade (05/03/00; 14:53:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 29869) Thai Guy I just finished reveiwing the last couple of days posts. I would say hang out, let's have a few virtual reality beers, and watch events unfold. I for one enjoy your posts. We all have different takes on how events occur in the PM world. After all isn't it fun to read Stranger's and Farfel's battles of wits and ideas? And you get to glean some very interesting info. Isn't that why we are here? to learn and exchange ideas that is. I think that you get a bit twisted in some posts (I really like it too!). Hell, some of my friends nick-named me incorrigable(sp). We are all twisted! We are gold bugs right? True contrarians that cut against the grain. So take care and stay on board! Christopher (05/03/00; 14:45:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 29868) Cavan man Good afternoon C.M.,I believe that it was FOA speaking about that, and it had to do with the fact that when the Euro came into place there would be no need for the foreign CB's to hold the POG in check(and provide life support for the Dollar.) My understanding was that they would finally step away at some point(coinciding with the EURO?), let the Dollar expire as the paper GOLD carry trade dried up, and allow Physical Gold to find its natural value.If I have mistated the facts, I trust the Knights will step in and point us both in the right direction.Christopher Econoclast (05/03/00; 14:32:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 29867) Thai Gold If you're still around...I loved your post about Thai Gold--very moving story.One reason that there wasn't silver confiscation might have been simple logistics. A few pounds of gold brought into a bank or otherwise confiscated can be quite valuable. Silver on the other hand, is not nearly as precious so maybe the gov't simply didn't want to have to cart around truckloads full of silver when they could simply confiscate a small safe full of gold.Hello Forum Members...I'm here lurking but have been very busy trying to make dollars so I can buy more gold. I am getting the feeling that time is growing short for accumulation. Beowulf (05/03/00; 14:31:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 29866) Interesting day Did Ben over at Gold-eagle do it again? Monday he said 48 hours and the market would tank again. To me it looks like he called it right.I also found it amusing that the manipulators had run out of bullets to fire at us gold bugs and then shake everything up just before opening in the U.S. this morning by throwing a gernade into the crowd and downgrading almost all the major gold miners. Interesting that Barrick wasn't on the list. I guess they are really desperate since that Swiss gold sales stuff is getting old really fast. How many times have that used that in the last two weeks? Nobody cares about the swiss sale anymore and it wasn't scaring people, so Pop goes the pin and they chuck the gernade into the mining sector. All I can say about that is THANK YOU, MAY I HAVE ANOTHER!! Wish I had some money at my broker to pick some shares up cheap.-Beowulf TownCrier (05/03/00; 14:28:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 29865) HEADLINE: Germany's Starbatty Urges Delay of Euro Notes and Coins http://quote.bloomberg.com/pgcgi.cgi?T=markets_newsfeat99.ht=&ptitle=EMU%20Top%20Stories&touch=1&s=AORBmtBPIR2VybWFu After first failing in efforts to block Germany's entry to the monetary union in 1998, economics professor and euro critic Joachim Starbatty is now pushing for a delay of the January 1st, 2002 introduction of physical euro currency, saying, "The clock must be stopped until the currency union is politically and economically sufficiently secured so that a failure can be excluded."Bloomberg indicated that Mr. Starbatty "said the ECB should stop confusing investors with its so-called two-pillar strategy and make up its mind instead whether to target itsrate policy at inflation or at money supply growth."From The Tower's perspective, we can see why the ECB will not allow itself to be pinned down to one particular "guiding light" of monetary policy. Despite the skeptics, the fact remains that the ECB must allow for the potential evolution in use of the euro beyond the euroland region. And to be sure, the montary policy associated with prudent stewardship of a regional currency would not be suitable for the same currency were its role to broaden to that of having a significant presence in world reserves and usage. Cavan Man (05/03/00; 14:15:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 29864) ORO I'm not bright enough to understand why but didn't ORO make the point that US (bullion) banks would be assuming much of if not most of all the gold derivative paper; that Euro baks were (a German Bank) pulling away?Was it FOA and can someone help me understand why?Thanks....CM Black Blade (05/03/00; 14:05:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 29863) SteveH Re: msg #29827 Very interesting account. If this had occurred in England, the Barbarian Brits would have cryed out for the poor robber and demand the incarceration of the victim. Wow! that is interesting. Reminds me of the book and film entitled "A Clockwork Orange". What the Hell is up with that government in England. To top it off, they sell their financial security (aka gold sales) and place themselves at risk if the ecomonies of the world tank. Maybe the Brits enjoy being victimized (sort of like the Peoples Republic of California). Also, I read a report that had the crime report results for Australia. Interesting that the Aussie government is at a loss to explain why violent crime rates have exploded upward since gun ownership was made illegal. Wish that I could find that report again. Maybe some of our friends in Oz could lead me to it. YGM (05/03/00; 14:02:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 29862) JP Morgan & Barrick...... Excerpts from Reg Howe.... Morgan's position alone equals some one and one-half years of total world gold production. Coincidentally or not, the total position now exceeds total official U.S. gold reserves of around 8140 tonnes.............................But even more extraordinary than the increases in total gold derivatives in the last half of 1999 were their increasing concentration in one bank: Morgan. Prior to 1999, Morgan had never held more than about $20 billion in total gold derivatives, nor more than 28% of the total outstanding for all banks. But beginning in the second quarter of 1999, Morgan took on a much larger role in the under one year maturities, possibly presaging the the British gold sales. Then, during the last half of 1999, Morgan more than doubled its total gold derivatives, taking them from $18.4 billion to $38.1 billion, amounting to 43% of the total for all banks. What is more, Morgan's over 40% dominance stretched across all maturities. In the fourth quarter alone, it increased its gold derivatives with maturities over one year by more than 80% to $17.1 billion from $9.4 billion, which may well answer the question of who sold Barrick the calls. Farfel (05/03/00; 14:01:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 29861) @STRANGER, I am banished from KITCO... And I respect the decision.But I discovered that most Kitcoites read USA GOLD, and vice versa. It is my impression gold investors fall into two categories, namely those who deny it and those who admit it.ThanksF* TheStranger (05/03/00; 13:58:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 29860) Farfel If all this is about something being said over at Kitco, why are you posting it here? YGM (05/03/00; 13:51:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 29859) Reg Howe Latest....Don't Miss It! http://www.goldensextant.com/ May 3, 2000." House of Morgan: From Gold Bugs to Paper Hangers" TheStranger (05/03/00; 13:50:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 29858) Cavan Man I don't know very much about silver. Sorry. Farfel (05/03/00; 13:41:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 29857) @STRANGER, one final point re: Barrick Tell me one other thing, my Barrick guru.Who is the counterparty to Barrick's gold call position?If you tell me that it is Goldman Sachs, then it makes me very suspicious.After all, Barrick is a Goldman client. So what if they have made an arrangement?What if Goldman told Barrick to buy the gold calls (in order to get the goldbug investors off its back, you know those goldbug pests who invested in Barrick because they wanted the gold price to RISE someday)? If the gold calls expire worthless since Goldman and its friends make sure gold never breaches the 310 level, then Barrick simply loses its gold call cash premium (I think its around $50 million) BUT MAINTAINS ITS ALMOST FOUR YEARS OF HEDGED PHYSICAL GOLD POSITION! So think of the gold call purchases as a kind of insurance policy that both the party and counterparty hope will never be exercised.Not bad, huh? What's a $50 million cash loss to a major gold hedger especially if (maybe) the loss can be applied to fees owed to Goldman? Is it possible that Goldman and its client made such an arrangement?Hmmmmm? Just wondering, just asking questions. Don't really know for sure. Only thing I do know is this: neither Goldman nor Barrick will win any national integrity awards soon as far as I am concerned.But let me tell you something, if it smells rotten and fishy, then it probably is rotten fish. ThanksF* Black Blade (05/03/00; 13:37:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 29856) PM bear coming out of hibernation? I haven't been around much the last couple of days. It is the time of year when some producers hand out their attendance and safety awards. This is my favorite time of year since I purchase gold at spot. Sometimes they hand out silver. This last couple of weeks I have bought 32.5 ounces of gold from Barrick miners. The typical response is, I've worked for this company for X years and all they give me is a half-ounce of gold! Hey, thats OK, I'll buy it. Farfel will appreciate this, on the front of the coin is an image of 3 (presumably) miners, with the inscription to the effect "Teamwork, Integrity, etc." A few weeks ago I purchased half ounce wafers from Placer Dome. I even got one of their year 2000 rounds. I may be getting some more Barrick rounds, and even some Echo Bay silver rounds this week. My point is that even the miners don't appreciate PMs now. This signals to me that we must be near the bottom of this bear market in PMs. Buy when their is blood in the streets! Buy low and sell high. Or, as the black widow (aka Witch of Wall Street) used to say, "Buy cheap, sell dear". The markets look a bit ragged today. But then gold is up $4.60. I sense that the tide is turning fellow knights and ladies. Farfel (05/03/00; 13:05:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 29855) @ STRANGER....Barrick Gold, STILL a GOLD SHORT... TheStranger (05/03/00; 12:31:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 29852)FarfelThe bottom half of your #29846 is a marvelous example of what you are talking about in the top half of your #29846. Iknow you have a vendetta against these people, but you should take care lest it shade your judgement.Farfel says:No vendetta, I could care less at this point. I am simply posting impassive reality checks, a favorite form of debate common amongst Kitcoites. In other words, I am following these guys and noting when they are speaking BS and providing that info to other gold investors. After all, many there did the same to me for the past few years, so now I am happy to reciprocate.Stranger says: I also know you areaware that the latest public information from this company is emphatically clear on the point that Barrick is now leveragedTO the the market and not against it. Farfel Says:You are categorically wrong, Stranger. Barrick has purchased a relatively small position in gold calls (around $50 million, I believe) at low gold strike prices (below 350) in both 2000 and 2001. If you think that little development suddenly makes a company that has hedged approximately four years of future production a "gold bull," then you are completely full of bull. There is absolutely no compelling evidence to indicate Barrick is desirous of higher gold prices. Until they close their enormous forward positions which require delivery of REAL PHYSICAL GOLD (as opposed to a relatively minor derivative long position in gold that is for CASH SETTLEMENT), then they are and remain a GOLD SHORT, more a hedge fund, less a gold producer, a de faction bullion bank.Sorry man, you're wrong...again.ThanksF*P.S. For those gold investors who wish to stimulate the XAU today, I recommend continued sales of Barrick and conversion into other UN-hedged/largely UN-hedged gold producers on the XAU. Cavan Man (05/03/00; 12:55:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 29854) The Stranger Have you any thoughts on silver? Gandalf the White (05/03/00; 12:33:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 29853) GC00M blasts off UPWARDS at close of COMEX session ! <;-) TheStranger (05/03/00; 12:31:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 29852) Farfel The bottom half of your #29846 is a marvelous example of what you are talking about in the top half of your #29846. I know you have a vendetta against these people, but you should take care lest it shade your judgement. I also know you are aware that the latest public information from this company is emphatically clear on the point that Barrick is now leveraged TO the the market and not against it. If you have proof to the contrary, I suggest you state it or quit defaming this company of which I, for one, am an owner.One thing a successful investor learns over time is to take ownership of his own losses. YGM (05/03/00; 11:43:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 29851) ThaiGold......Silver Comments.... FWIW.....my take on Silver is that those holding the physical could have massive leverage over holding Au..... If memory serves me correct I seem to recall an editorial atGold-Eagle (and also I believe Vronsky once stated) that Silver has historicaly traded on a 20/1 ratio to Gold......... So with that same ratio now @ approximately 55/1 and any major moves in PMs (short squeeze Ted Butler sees in not too distant future) Silver Bugs could stand to reap FAR GREATER rewards......Just my opinion for what it's worth...YGM.....PS:------and then there's the confiscation issue of Gold to think about.......... beesting (05/03/00; 11:23:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 29850) The Main Reason Gold Mining Stocks are Down so far Today. http://biz.yahoo.com/c/20000503/d.html The Brokerage Firm of Lehman Brothers downgraded many Gold Mining companies today from the classification of Neutral to Underperform. See URL.Comment:Doesn't it seem odd that a reclassification occurs after the largest up day on the XAU in a long time?Also the largest total volume on XAU in a long time.If someone could see into the future yesterday and was buying shares enmasse driving the share price up...in a weak "Spot" market....and knew that a downgrade would drive share prices down as soon as it was announced.....couldn't that someone make a killing? Sir Nickel62 is it possible to see who the large buyers of Gold shares were the last few days? Does the SEC watch this stuff??What's interesting is Goldman Sachs stayed clear of the Gold sector on their reclassifications.....could the heat from GATA be having an effect on Goldmans Gold recommendations?Thai Gold, Stranger,Elwood, and ALL:All posts are greatly appreciated by this sometimes poster, however," Time is of the Essence" when it comes to responding I and probably many others just don't have enough of it(TIME).Actually, if everyone responded to every post what kind of a traffic jam would that create???....beesting. MarkeTalk (05/03/00; 11:13:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 29849) Market Musings Stocks are falling rapidly, being sucked down into the next turning point of May 4th-5th per "eclipse theory" as mentioned previously on this site. Personally, I believe the markets could drop until May 10-12th as we all await the probably outcome of Greenspan's next interest rate move. By then, market participants should have a good idea of what he is going to do. Gold and silver are showing signs of life and should be bottoming or have bottomed in this time frame. XAU index jumped 5.47 points (almost 10%) yesterday which is usually a precursor to moves in the actual physical metals. Stay tuned for further market developments. Knallgold (05/03/00; 10:56:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 29848) Nasdaq Why can they participate in the Euromarkets merger??I am highly irritated.No battle between Europe and Wall Street psychos??Or is Another right, Gold and the $ can rise together? White Hills (05/03/00; 10:33:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 29847) Some listen To The Stranger, ThaiGold and others Some speak and some listen. To listen is to learn and to speak is to teach. The most amazing part of this forum is that the quality of thought and writing is world class and is only available here and it is free. No where else have I found the TRUTH as offered here. I listen and act. White Hills Farfel (05/03/00; 10:25:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 29846) Reality Check...Steve Kaplan, Gold Mining Outlook Date: Wed May 03 2000 10:44StevenJonKaplan (GATA update from yesterday) ID#280284:Copyright © 2000 StevenJonKaplan/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved Normally I don't bother responding to commentary by other gold analysts, but I couldn't help saying something after reading the GATA daily update from May 2. The GATA author purports to quote from the Sunday New York Times article in the Money and Business section that compared Barrick with Newmont. The New York Times article mentions that Newmont's share price has been outperforming Barrick's share price, then spends several paragraphs explaining why this is irrational, since Barrick's earnings are much stronger and consistent than Newmont's. The GATA reference mentions the article, but only the part about Newmont's share price outperformance, thus leaving the impression that the New York Times was endorsing Newmont over Barrick. This is as misleading as quoting from the U.S. Declaration of Independence by mentioning the fact of British rule over the American colonies, while conveniently leaving out Jefferson's lengthy argument that such rule was unjust and must be ended.---------------Steve Kaplan's favorite North American gold producer is Barrick Gold, that has effectively hedged over four years of future production. In other words, Barrick is betting (and certainly hoping) for a fall in the price of gold since it is more a hedge fund today than a gold producer and makes profits when the gold price falls where most unhedged gold producers do not.Keep that in mind whenever you read Mr. Kaplan and his urgent cries to sell gold whenever it begins to get any significant upward momentum going.ThanksF* Peter Asher (05/03/00; 10:25:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 29845) ThaiGold (5/3/2000; 4:52:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 29823) No sympathy here for your "Bad Hair Day" I'll trade you for my bald spot. Re your >>>>Which it didn't. And I'm glad. The material was not worthy of inclusion amongst the HOF. I knew that; You knew that; <<<< --- No I didn't "Know " that. While sociologically I am contemptuous of the current Americana, I have been a staunch fan of it's economic prowess and have disagreed with the attitude that the dollar is a worthlesspiece of paper. I thought your post was a superb defense of the capability of the people of the USA to back it with productive capability, present-time lazy, freeloading Sheeple not withstanding. Maybe its because I'm old enough to remember the tide of World war II being turned by "Rosie The Riveter." The two factors that won that war were the ability for the American soldier to think for himself and take the initiative on the battle field when cut of from command, and, the resources and industrial might of "Spacious Skies, and Amber Waves of Grain." Maybe that veiwpoint makes me also one of your "Crack Pots.Finally: re- your >>>Why was Silver *mentioned* in the FDR-Order, but didn't in-fact occur.?.<<< My "Copy" of the executive order of 5 Apr. ‘33 is of the Post office notice put up at the time. Headed at the top by "James Farley, Postmaster General, and signed at the bottom by W Woodwin (Sp. Illegible) Sec. Of the Treasury. I don't find the word Silver any where in it. Is there a more comprehensive formal version of this order. WARNING! This may be a plot to keep you posting. Heh, heh, heh. Farfel (05/03/00; 10:12:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 29844) Gold Technicians Reality Check...re: APH@KITCO On April 26, he called it wrong, declaring we would head down from 270 to 250.Seven days later, he claims he called it right, referring to yesterdays "anticipated rally off the low 270's."(see memorialized posts below)Beware of gold technicians, they are counting on goldbugs to have very short memories. But worst of all, on KITCO they are predisposed to scare gold investors into selling into any rally.Change the perception, Buy and Hold.ThanksF*-------------------------------Date: Wed Apr 26 2000 20:56APH (Trading - Gold) ID#7223:"Its always Darkest before the Dawn" or so they say, it may be true this time. Gold looks sick and going to get alittle sicker. I doubt if 272 is going to hold. Based on monthly charts it looks like we are going to test and exceedthe monthly lows at 250. But from there should come a new dawn. The best possilbe out come is a spike lowending between 250 - 245. Once the market is in that range I'm looking for a violent reversal back up. This couldhappen as soon as tomorrow. Keep your power dry, have no fear, pull the trigger on any quick moves under 250.------------------------------------------------------Date: Wed May 03 2000 11:11APH (Trading) ID#7223:Gold - Yesterday's anticapted rally off the the low 270s area in the June contract is failing, yesterdays move up didmore harm then good, it now allows for more of this endless drift down, sub 50 in the xau and sub 250 gold arestill ahead. Corn - your position should be in place below 2.50 in July, objective still 3.50 in June, its now a hold and seewhat happens. Bellies - your position short from the highs 90's in july contract is being rewarded today "lock limit down" snp - mid range, no trade WilloTheWarthog (05/03/00; 10:10:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 29843) Euro (from Le Monde) http://www.lemonde.fr/article/0,2320,dos-2340-52594-QUO-1-2031-,00.html La hausse des taux de la BCE accentue le recul de l'euroIt remains that the move of the BCE did not make it possible to support the euro, on the contrary. The majority of the analysts estimated, before the meeting, that a rise of the rates of a quarter of point could not probably stop the fall of the European currency. Some awaited a more significant turn of screw (0,5 point). The retreat of the euro, but also of the markets of obligations and actions Europeans after the decision of the BCE, reflects the disappointment of the investors, who estimate that the BCE made the bad choice. This rise is not, in their eyes, sufficient to help the euro but, on the other hand, it will contribute to slow down the economic growth on the Old Continent... and thus to weaken the European currency! The monetary strategy of hardening to support the euro according to them is dedicated to the failure. The dive of the euro after its rise of the rates could lead the BCE to place from now on an intervention on the foreign exchange market in the center of its reflexions, intervention which would be coordinated with the central banks of the United States and Japan. The evolutions of the next days will be determining: Ernst Welteke, the president of Bundesbank, estimated, Thursday April 27, that a euro clearly below 0,90 dollar was " to tell the truth hardly conceivable ". Is this level when the BCE decides to counteract? Farfel (05/03/00; 10:10:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 29842) Gold Technicians' Reality Check....Re: APH @KITCO On April 26, he called it wrong, declaring we would head down from 270 to 250.Seven days later, he claims he called it right, referring to yesterdays "anticipated rally of the low 270's."(see memorialized posts below)Beware of gold technicians, they are counting on goldbugs to have very short memories. But worst of all, on KITCO they are predisposed to scare gold investors into selling into any rally.Change the perception, Buy and Hold.ThanksF*-------------------------------Date: Wed Apr 26 2000 20:56APH (Trading - Gold) ID#7223: "Its always Darkest before the Dawn" or so they say, it may be true this time. Gold looks sick and going to get a little sicker. I doubt if 272 is going to hold. Based on monthly charts it looks like we are going to test and exceed the monthly lows at 250. But from there should come a new dawn. The best possilbe out come is a spike low ending between 250 - 245. Once the market is in that range I'm looking for a violent reversal back up. This could happen as soon as tomorrow. Keep your power dry, have no fear, pull the trigger on any quick moves under 250.------------------------------------------------------Date: Wed May 03 2000 11:11APH (Trading) ID#7223: Gold - Yesterday's anticapted rally off the the low 270s area in the June contract is failing, yesterdays move up did more harm then good, it now allows for more of this endless drift down, sub 50 in the xau and sub 250 gold are still ahead. Corn - your position should be in place below 2.50 in July, objective still 3.50 in June, its now a hold and see what happens. Bellies - your position short from the highs 90's in july contract is being rewarded today "lock limit down" snp - mid range, no trade Henri (05/03/00; 10:07:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 29841) Gold Fields Hammered GOLD today is down 24% a buy opportunity? ss of nep (05/03/00; 10:07:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 29840) For those mathematically inclined : RiskMetetrics ftp://ftp.jpmorgan.com/pub/RiskMetrics/ It appears the BIS has had some part in creating these models.The entire book is about 300 pages.Go to indicated ftp site and you can then access the book contained across files ..TD4ePt_1.pdfTD4ePt_2.pdfTD4ePt_3.pdfTD4ePt_4.pdfTD4ePt_5.pdfAlso,There appears to be a formal organization to handle Riskmetrics info. It's located at http://www.riskmetrics.com/research/techdocs/index.cgiThe site is free but you have to register for access to the files. YGM (05/03/00; 10:02:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 29839) EURO....& England Like a Cat Burgler...In thru the "Back Door"........... British Stock Shares to Be Listed in EurosAnother insult to the pound and Her Majesty.BRITAIN'S largest companies could be forced to list their shares in euros rather than sterling following a merger of the London and Frankfurt stock exchanges which is due to be announced today. The plan would be a massive blow for those campaigning to keep the pound and was attacked last night as a German-led attempt to "introduce the euro by the back door". The euro fell to new lows against the pound and dollar again yesterday and is worth 20 per cent less than it was when it was launched 17 months ago. Such exchange risks could become a fact of life for British investors buying shares in companies such as Marks & Spencer, British Telecom and Barclays Bank unless Britain joins the single currency. If the merger goes through, it is also likely to force leading companies to record their entire financial accounts in euros - adding further momentum to the campaign for British entry. The change is expected to introduce significant extra costs for both businesses and investors, particularly the millions of smaller shareholders who do not usually invest in foreign currencies. Nevertheless, the London exchange is believed to be pressing ahead with plans for a full merger with its German rival which aims to encourage all large European companies to quote their primary share listing in euros. The board of Frankfurt's Deutsche Börse met last Friday to agree the terms of the 50:50 merger and their 14 counterparts in London were expected to rubber-stamp the deal in a meeting last night. The London board includes the Stock Exchange chief executive Gavin Casey and leading City figures such as the HSBC chairman Sir John Bond and Merrill Lynch's European chairman Michael Marks. The Stock Exchange would not comment on the terms of the merger until a press conference this morning, and is expected to introduce the measure gradually. It appears that the top 350 European companies listed on the new joint exchange will be expected to have their primary listing in euros to minimise the exchange risk for institutions wishing to trade in both markets. This would encompass all the FTSE 100 constituents and possibly dozens of second-tier companies such as Scottish & Newcastle and PowerGen. News of the merger terms caused anger among anti-euro campaigners last night and could cause a wider backlash. A spokesman for Business for Sterling said: "There is very serious concern in the City about the terms of this proposed deal. Many of Britain's biggest companies oppose listing in euros and this deal will hit small shareholders. It looks like a lot of expensive bureaucracy and paperwork for little real gain." The merger has been attacked as unattractive from a British point of view since it gives an equal footing to the smaller Frankfurt exchange. The market for established "blue-chip" companies from both exchanges will be based in London while Frankfurt will host a market for newer, high-tech companies. Last night it emerged that America's Nasdaq exchange will take a shareholding in this Frankfurt-based high-tech market, which could undermine earlier commitments to run its European operations from London. Mr Casey is expected to step down in favour of Deutsche Börse's chief executive Werner Seifert, but should receive the bulk of a rumoured £8 million worth of management share options following the demutualisation of the London Exchange. Don Cruickshank, the former telecoms and banking regulator, will become chairman of the new group, which will be based in London. The London Telegraph, May 3, 2000 WilloTheWarthog (05/03/00; 09:53:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 29838) US Markets viewed from Switzerland http://www.baz.ch/wirtschaft/welcome.html (excerpted from today's Basler Zeitung)New Economy: Only propaganda A little leniency of a quite different style spreads from an anonymous Editorial of "Le Monde", into which poisonous arrows towards Washington and London are shot. The enormous communication apparatus of the US capitol paints the new Economy in the most beautiful colours, in order to whitewash the weaknesses like the ridiculous rate of saving or the enormous external deficits. The English and the analysts of the large banks of this world combined also criticized euro country, as if it were still as before limited by state interventionism. USAGOLD (05/03/00; 09:42:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 29837) Today's Report: Euro Woes Could Boost European Gold Demand 5/3/00 Indications Current Change Gold June Comex 277.00 +0.10 Silver July Comex 5.06 -0.02 30 Yr TBond June CBOT 95~24 -0~03 Dollar Index June NYBOT 111.10 +0.97 Market Report (5/3/00): An overseas continuation of yesterday's gold rally was quickly squashed in New York as the euro took a horrendous pounding in the early going and the dollar soared. Gold short-covering in the wake of the the details on the Swiss sales being made public characterized both London and Asian trading. Wall Street itself has not drawn strength from the dollar's rise. Stocks continued their downtrend despite the dollar's strength. Some of the dollar's strength can be attributed to persistent speculation that the Fed will raise interest rates a half-point at its May 16 meeting. If the European Union was ever serious about making the euro a challenger to the dollar for reserve currency status, they have certainly been hampered by the currency's performance over the past four months. This morning it dipped below the 90¢ level. One would think that the obvious weaknesses in the euro system would send European savers scurrying to the pantry for the Rolaids, if not to check if their personal gold stash is still intact. There is little doubt that in an area of the world where currency disasters are part and parcel of the history, and gold ownership remains the time-tested portfolio antidote to such monetary dalliance, that the demand for gold would rise proportionately given the circumstances. This used to be the type of situation on which the thrifty, sound-money Swiss would thrive. Now, it seems they have given up that market for their own reasons, leaving gold the last safe haven in Europe. As it stands now, Europe is the second largest gold buying area of the world. Under the circumstances, it may soon take the number one position. Beyond the tangle of current European politics, we do not attribute gold's lollygagging this morning to the Swiss announcement yesterday. We continue to believe that its the strength of the dollar that's keeping gold in check. The Swiss have repeatedly stated that the gold sales would be conducted in a manner that would not undermine the price. In commissioning the Bank for International(BIS) to handle the sales, the Swiss, at least on the surface, seem to have fulfilled that promise. Many in the gold trading arena believe that the BIS will spoon-feed the gold into the market, or even simply bridge the metal across to other central banks who are in the acquisition mode. As it now stands, of the 2000 tonnes in gold sales agreed upon by the world's central bankers vis a vis the Washington Agreement, the Swiss will sell 1300 tonnes, the Dutch will sell 100 tonnes this year and another 200 tonnes over the remaining four years of the accord, and the United Kingdom will sell 365 tonnes. That amounts to 1965 of the 2000 tonnes agreed upon. There will be few if any official-sector surprises over the next four years -- a bullish backdrop for gold investors in the weeks and months to come. That's it for today, my friends. See you here tomorrow. The May News & Views is now on its way and should be hitting your mail boxes over the next few days. We think you are going to like this issue written during the weekend after the April 14 Wall Street Meltdown. If you are looking for a pro-gold view of the various financial markets as well as a summary of the events affecting the yellow metal, our monthly newsletter might be of interest. News & Views -- Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has been characterized as witty, urbane, intelligent and down-to-earth. Not to mention it's Free of Charge If you want to keep up with gold, this is the way a large segment of the gold owning public does it, and has done it for over a decade. Just click here ---> ORDER FORM <--- and make the appropriate entries. Skip (05/03/00; 09:40:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 29836) ThaiGold I'll echo the others who want you to stay around. Some of your postings are what make this forum worth reading, and I appreciate them. There are probably many lurkers like me who read this forum almost every day but rarely post comments. Certainly most of us have experienced our own emotions almost getting the better of us at times when we realize that our financial affairs have been influenced by a rigged market. It's almost enough to make you want to throw in the towel...but GATA seems to be making great progress bringing this POG manipulation to the attention of the world. Also, this forum is a valuable golden discussion on the internet; and one that I read far more often than any other. (BTW, did others lose their ability to post on Kitco this year? They ignored me when I told them my password no longer worked. But no great loss, as I prefer this forum!)I for one wish to be on the golden train when it finally leaves the station. Stay aboard, as I almost feel like I know some of you.--Skip Cage Rattler (05/03/00; 09:21:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 29835) Intervention and the Euro Central Bank Does anyone know if all 11 ECOFIN Ministers must give prior approval for ECB and national central banks to intervene in the markets? Or, can the ECB can intervene without approval of EU Finance Minsters? I'm trying to get some clarity on the issue as there doesn't seem consensus in the interbank market. Galearis (05/03/00; 08:33:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 29834) A must read: earmarked gold; exports http://www.geocities.com/goldtango/fed_earmarked_gold.htm Gandalf the White (05/03/00; 08:21:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 29833) The Hobbits Observations of the first 13 minutes of the PPT actions. One group of Hobbits were watching the XAU index while another was watching the S&P Futures as indicated by the $PREMX, both on Quotecom/Livecharts. VERY INTERESTING !!The $PREMX group was shocked as the S&P Futures started at near ZERO, bounced to only +4 and then went into negative territory for the first nine minutes. While this was happening the XAU group watched as someone TRASHED the XAU!!It opened down one-half a point (from 61 to 60.5) and then proceeded to be HAMMERED down to 59 within two minutes, and then sliding more to the 58.3 level. BUT, at the 9:43 mark the $PREMX group saw the index suddenly spike from about the 2 level to above the 10 level. The Hobbits conclude that the PPT can not do two things at once !!! The most important action this morning was to KILL the XAU's rise!! (and they did a very good job) All the Hobbits hope now is that ORO can confirm this view of the PPT's morning action.<;-) TheStranger (05/03/00; 07:36:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 29832) ThaiGold My apologies. I had been following your remarks about the implications of Newmont's strength and should have credited your original thinking in my post last night. I am glad you spoke up! I sometimes wonder if anybody reads my stuff too.Recently I asked about this and got a slew of positive responses. I know it is hard to guage the value of your contribution without feedback, so here it is: I read you ALL THE TIME, and apparently so do dozens of others. I think your ideas are an important asset to this forum. pdeep (05/03/00; 07:13:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 29831) The irrational exuberance of the 90's and the excesses of '29 http://www.prudentbear.com/guest.htm Kurt Richebacher weighs in on the '29 and 90's. This is the best and most concise analysis of the two periods I have seen in a long time. His insights on where corporate debt ended up between the two periods is worth the price of the admission. schippi (05/03/00; 06:46:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 29830) XAU Vs FSAGX chart http://www.SelectSectors.com/xaugld3mth.gif Moving Up!! SteveH (05/03/00; 06:37:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 29829) Not our plan TG,For the record, it ain't our plan. We are bought viewers of the big TV screen of the world. (at least it isn't mine). I personally like a strong dollar, I don't like weak gold. Now if that isn't a paradox, I don't know what is. :-) Golden Boy (05/03/00; 06:25:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 29828) Cambior Private Placement @ C$1.45 Cambior just announced they did a private placement for US$5 million at a price of C$1.45 a share, a significant premium over their $0.85 share price. Jipangu, a Japanese gold company, bought the shares at a premium but still at a substantial discount to Cambior's Net Asset Value. Jipangu should be able to help Cambior with their financing problems especially when they have access to very low interest rates in Japan at 1%. This transaction should speed up the process for a potential take-over bid for Cambior, most likely Teck or Agnico-Eagle. Cambior has been killed for their over-hedging, well-deserved, but now the company is trading at unbelievably low levels, this company is very attractive. How would this company look without a hedge book? Probably the best value gold stock out there. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if they were to unwind their hedges now at a low gold price of around $275. SteveH (05/03/00; 05:46:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 29827) Hmm? Euro under 90!and on the protecting gold (jewelery) department:repost:British businessman shoots gunman dead to thwart robbery at Nairobi racecourse By Declan Walsh in Nairobi and Steve Boggan 3 May 2000 A British businessman shot and killed one gunman and wounded a second yesterday when he foiled a robbery attempt at a racecourse in Nairobi. Bob Holt, a former aide of the late media tycoon Robert Maxwell, was held up at gunpoint and ordered to open the racecourse's safe – but the four robbers did not reckon on him being armed with a .38 calibre revolver because of a previous attempt on his life. While the robbers held up staff and took cash and jewellery, Mr Holt, chief executive of the Jockey Club of Kenya, chose his moment before pulling out his gun and shooting two of the gang in quick succession. One died on the spot and the other, who is still at large, fled with two accomplices in a stolen Nissan car with diplomatic numberplates. Blood was splattered on the walls and computers of the offices where the shooting took place. Speaking outside the offices, Mr Holt declined to comment before making a statement to police. However the racecourse chief of security, Shadrack Maluki, described the robbery. He said two smartly dressed men entered the Jockey Club offices at the racecourse at 10am and held hostage Mr Holt, a receptionist and a promotions manager. The men, who were armed with at least one gun but were not masked, demanded the takings from last Sunday's race meeting, estimated at about 200,000 Kenyan shillings (£1,700). After taking a bag of money the robbers moved the hostages into a different office and began to steal their jewellery. At that point Mr Holt pulled his gun from his pocket and shot one of the robbers twice in the chest. Then he turned around and shot the other man, who had been removing rings from the other employees' fingers. The first robber died on the spot while the other, who was wounded in the chest, managed to stagger to the waiting car. They sped out of the compound, menacing security staff and shooting into the air. "There was blood spilling out of the side of the vehicle as they drove off," said Richard Ngui, a security guard. Mr Holt handed over his revolver, which was licensed, to police detectives for ballistic examination. Mr Maluki said he expected the gun to be returned soon. "The robbers were real professionals, acting just like diplomats," he said. "It was a very brave thing Bob did. The killing was entirely justifiable. He only shot in self-defence when a weapon had been pulled on him." Kenyan police were appealing for information on a heavily bloodstained vehicle seen leaving the racecourse. Mr Holt's former wife Linda, who runs Capitol Radio in Nairobi, said: "We are all very concerned about what happened, but the police said he handled it very courageously. Being held up at gunpoint on a Tuesday morning is not the sort of thing you expect. We're all very relieved he's OK." Yesterday's events mark the latest chapter in a fascinating life. As a young man, Mr Holt rode bicycles professionally on the Continent. For nine years, he worked in a variety of executive positions for Robert Maxwell before becoming managing director of the East African Standard in Nairobi in the early 1990s. While there, the paper ran a story that upset some sections of the Asian community. According to a close friend, who asked not to be named, one potential assailant decided to take it out on Mr Holt, firing a shot that narrowly missed his head. The Kenyan government offered him protection and provided a bodyguard for up to six months. "He was also given a gun and taught how to use it by the bodyguard, who had in turn been trained by the Israeli secret service," said the friend. "He was told never to draw his pistol unless he intended to use it. I'm shocked that he has been involved in such an incident, but not surprised that he defended himself. He's a confident man, but not arrogant, and he's a quiet character but very brave." He left the newspaper at the end of last year and was asked to join struggling Swindon Town Football Club as its chief executive. Despite his best efforts, however, the club was too far in debt and went into administration after two months. The club's staff were relieved yesterday when told the news by The Independent. Robin Humby, Swindon Town's management accountant, said: "While he was here he was not a man to be trifled with. His stay was always going to be brief. He resigned after two months because there was nothing more he could do for us." He left in February and had been helping the Kenyan Jockey Club to restructure its finances after a difficult spell. According to the friend, he was working only for expenses and his love of the turf. ***And on the manipulation front:Date: Wed May 03 2000 06:49gwyz (I hear a fat lady...) ID#44161:Copyright © 2000 gwyz/Kitco Inc. All rights reservedhttp://www.siliconinvestor.com/insight/contrarian/ "Barton Biggs notes in his piece today. . .three of the best ( proven longer term money managers - Julian Robertson, Stanley Druckenmiller and Nicholas Roditi ) . . .have quit the game. And he sees this development as a very troubling sign because all three investors are serious, intellectual, very bright people who are serious students of investing [who]. . .had employed all the tools and had matchless resources. He is right to be troubled. No one has yet written a serious article on "what is killing the macro hedge fund managers?" for the Wall Street Journal or the Financial Times. The answer is clear: We are in a period of unprecedented government intervention and manipulation of markets. . .in response to the near ( and forthcoming ) collapse of the international economic regime." Trail Guide (05/03/00; 05:42:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 29826) Comment ALL:I've been working up several new posts and have had no time to place them yet. I talk in depth to a number of people and it can be quite a task. So, am behind reading too. Also wanted to wait until I could post some long overdue replies and comments on the main forum. ORO, your good thoughts always require some commentary from me. Will do so this weekend. Excellent writing by everyone! Elwood, great charts! Stranger, your'er NEM is going up too fast! Only allowed 10% a week (smile).Looks like our long term plan is still working in the right direction! Good news for gold advocates!thanks Trail Guide ss of nep (05/03/00; 05:38:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 29825) Bonedaddy (05/02/00; 19:16:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 29790) http://home.sol.no/~noetic/nagham/gosthom.html I liked your paraphased quote …"To Paraphrase Solomon, he wrote that when wisdom cries out to us and we fail to heed her warning, she will scoff at us later when we fall. "The one I like the best is from the Gospel of Thomas …2. Jesus said, "Those who seek should not stop seeking until they find. When they find, they will be disturbed. When they are disturbed, they will marvel, and will reign over all. [And after they have reigned they will rest.]" Henri (5/3/2000; 4:57:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 29824) The Invisible Hand http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Collection&cid=ZZZNSJCX70C You can get FT but the inner pages require a subscription...not too dear ThaiGold (5/3/2000; 4:52:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 29823) In Rebuttal Attn: Peter Asher (5/3/2000; 3:29:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 29819) =================================================================.........5-03-2000To: Peter AsherWhere to begin.?.Okay: I feel the question(s) I asked about the non-FDR-confiscationof Silver were two-fold:(1) Why was Silver *mentioned* in the FDR-Order, but didn't in-fact occur.?.(2) Wouldn't that imply that Silver would be a good alternative nowadays.?.Your answer, was appreciated, but I felt "skirted" the issues I'd raised,in-that, initially, you spoke only of Gold hoarding, etc etc. And you onlymentioned the impracticality of storing large amounts of Silver. You did *not*put forth a *reason* why (proclamation-mentioned-included-Silver) was notindeed confiscated, regardless of who may have or may-not have had large oreven small holdings of Silver in 1933.My "complaint" was not meant to be "a euphemism for not getting the answerI wanted". Indeed, I had no answer in mind; is why I asked those (logical)questions in the first place. And I'm still wishing someone would answeror roundtable discuss them in this forum. To-date, they haven't, except you.And I appreciate the efforts you have put forth singlehandedly to do so.But I feel the issue(s) are still fully-unanswered and undiscussed here.Next, is (I think) a non-issue, regarding your nomination of my #29602 postto the HOF, if-only the initial paragraph (which you describe, probably quitecorrectly, as "a subtle dig regarding FOA") were deleted. I saw that aspectof it clearly, myself, and fully expected nobody else would consider 2nd'ingthe nomination. None of us are fools, here in this Forum. I myself, wouldhave, and intended-to *decline* any such fully-nominated/2nd'd event if ithad somehow come about. Which it didn't. And I'm glad. The material was notworthy of inclusion amongst the HOF. I knew that; You knew that; And everyonethat *didn't* 2nd (or even respond further to it) knew that. Case closed.So, to conserve bandwidth, I did not respond a "Thank You" to you for the(what would have been) ludicrous nomination. But I will say Thanks, now, ifyou sincerely expected it. And my apologies for not having done so, then.And thirdly, in rebuttal, where you said: "Or did this suggested nomination,which you chose to ignore, merely interfere with your desire to feel sorryfor yourself and beg for sympathy tonight.?"My answer to that, is ... "no". I do not have such foresight, to see that farinto the future to know whether I'd be having a Bad-Hair-Day two nights later,nor if I'd want or need a little or alot or just an average amount of sympathy.As it turns out, I really wasn't needing any. Believe it or not.And lastly, I guess I have to prove the unproveable: Where you said, regardingmy suggestion that an In-Crowd exists in this Forum that tends to ignore thosenon-conformant poster's items: [quote] "is an evaluation without substance. Ifyou can post anything said here, to back that up, I will stand corrected! " [Unquote]Isn't that about the same as asking a man if he has stopped beating his wife?I mean, how can I post "proofs" that were in fact never-posted.?. The ignorethis thorn in our sides guy and he will go away treatment. However, what I *could* do (but won't) is post many many emails that I just received, backingup my "observation", and expressing similar feelings (to me privately) aboutthat issue. It's not something I made up out of thin air. It's a widespreadbelief amongst Lurkers and Posters that do not wish to publicly state intothe Forum. And perhaps wisely so.In summation; We all know what Harry Truman said about Heat, and Kitchens.I love cooking, stirring pots, and Kitchens. To me, the "Heat" is nothing.That's why I include my e-mail address nowadays. And why I'm still here.Petty-bickering like this does not belong in the Forum, and I apologize toMK that is has come to this. Anyone: Please-Please, just badger me via e-mail.It's alot simpler. More gentlemanly. And usually ends happily resolved.Cordially,ThaiGoldThaiRanch@OperaMail.Com============================================================================ ss of nep (5/3/2000; 4:41:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 29822) Cavan Man (05/02/00; 20:44:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 29799) "...we indeed have a "Church of Rome" and then, there is the original version. All is in the history books..."I am still working on reading ALL the history books, manyof them are contradictory, still a long way to go.I think it might help if the Vatican would open its library for world view. Topaz (5/3/2000; 4:20:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 29821) Fess-up time Ok- t'is in the wee small hours and this post may go largely unnoticed, but post it I will:-CONFESSION:I'm out of Funds!!That's right- skint, broke, busted.To date, I've capped EVERY run-up in POG since last March. The BoE sales notification didn't stop that one- "I did" (as I recall a 3 Oz purchase) The Washington Agreement "Hah" (a paultry 6 Sovereigns stopped that run-away train) - and the one in Feb 00 ( now that baby was a doosie- Got set for "several" Oz's at 10am local.--by 10-15 the price rise had faultered- and that same after-noon another dealer rang and offering quantity at A$40 less an Oz.. Price still hasn't recovered to that buy level even in " Sth Pacific Pesos".The message all this conveys is- I'm unable to stop this one. I'm out of fodder- and that, fellow bugs, augurs well for this BULL.NOW--- if only Sir canamami would post & declare a recent sale!!! < big smile> SteveH (5/3/2000; 3:30:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 29820) Elwood http://www.geocities.com/goldtango/analysis1.htm Damn good, Elwood. Excellent anaylysis. All must check it out.snippet--"Today, the upcoming Swiss sales may be providing some psychological impact on the price, however, these are real flows of gold, not psychological flows. We believe the Fed and the US Treasury have lost much of their foreign help in maintaining a low gold price and will face a massive struggle to continue this effort against market forces that have never been defeated in the history of mankind. Once the market realizes that the Swiss sales will never leave the BIS/ECB sphere of control, this will no doubt set the dollar afire. For the Swiss/Europeans to do otherwise will deprive them of much of the high-powered ammunition they'll require to defend their new currency when, as it surely must, their policy changes from one of passive, non-support for the dollar to one of active resistance." Peter Asher (5/3/2000; 3:29:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 29819) ThaiGold (05/02/00; 21:41:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 29802) Let's start with >>>>There was only one response, and that one even skirted the issue entirely. The question remains unanswered.!. <<<<<First I said (Re- silver)"there is the problem of tonnage when confronting the storage of life-saving's sized value." Then in the 2nd post of my two part answer I said: "When you read the Executive Order of 1933, you notice that the key concern stated was the "hoarding" of Gold whilst in the middle of a "Banking Emergency." and: When people had their gold cashed out into dollars, some may still have rushed right back home and put the dollars under the mattress, but certainly a lot were deposited in the bank and thus facilitated the resuscitation of the system." Apparently I should have pointed out specifically that silver was not being hoarded in the quantities per individual that would result in substantial bank deposits if confiscated: and that silver would have been too costly to ship and store and also wouldn't have been of use for international transactions. Also, being an industrial metal it wouldn't be viable as a price controlled monetary metal.I don't think, however that this was "Skirting the issue." Sounds like your complaint is a euphemism for not getting the answer you wanted! Then you say >>>>Yet nobody in the Forum seems to hear my Voice from the Wilderness.<<<<. I call your attention to Peter Asher (4/29/2000; 23:07:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 29607) ThaiGold (4/29/2000; 21:00:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 29602) " Delete everything before Paragraph #3 "for the most part" and I see this as an HOF nominee." --- Was the request to delete the subtle dig regarding FOA so appalling to you that the recognition of the value of your main message was forfeit? Or did this suggested nomination, which you chose to ignore, merely interfere with your desire to feel sorry for yourself and beg for sympathy tonight.?Your >>>>Unless a poster is one of the In-Crowd, or FOA-Worshipper, he is relegated to Court-Jester status, totally ignored, or simply considered a CrackPot.<<<< is an evaluation without substance. If you can post anything said here, to back that up, I will stand corrected! AuBug (5/3/2000; 3:27:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 29818) What's up on the JSE Gold shares up moderately in RSA. You can expect a big correction today in GOLD and HGMCY. Our RSA friends are not pumping gold shares up 30-50% in one day.You Yanks slow down a bit. Rome wasn't built in a day and XAU 140 won't happen this week. Aussies were much more conservative even after the 10% rise in the XAU.http://www.bfanet.com/rtw/nowmain.htm AuBug (5/3/2000; 3:14:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 29817) Is this one for real? I have heard from our RSA friends that the big pop in US PoG shares was short covering during the last hour of trading. Correction tomorrow and then another slow grind into the dirt? Dust to dust...ashes to ashes...They will try very hard to put gold back into the ground.At what point do market forces overwhelm suppression? SteveH (5/3/2000; 3:11:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 29816) ThaiGold I read your posts too. So stick around. Just an aside, the long-term posters here are long-term because they have all experienced your feelings but keep posting anyway. Every post can't be a blockbuster nor get audible applause, but once in a while a real gem is cut. Yours show great glimmer.Stock futures are in the red this morning, early. The Euro is getting hammered, now in the 90s. Gold up 2.0 (June futures) at 279. Crude crossed the 27 line. Dollar at 110.72 and rising.This tells me that oil was taking a breather but is destined higher, gold is following gold stocks, Euro is being attacked, bond yields are likely to rise, and stocks may show some volatility to the downward side for the next few days. In other words, the inflation train is gaining momentum and oil will keep the pressure on and somebody is going to tick off the ECB pretty darn soon. Topaz (5/3/2000; 3:04:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 29815) Thai-Elwood Thai Gold:You have my undivided attention--- please keep posting & speculating.Elwood:Sharefin would be proud ----"The Oxymoronic Oscars"And the winner is------ Nonmonetary Gold (almost pipped at the post by) Dollar Value.Interesting weeks ahead- Keep your heads down gents!! AuBug (5/3/2000; 3:02:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 29814) Thai Gold Your wanting to quit the forum is not sour grapes. It is just another sign that the bottom is in. nickel62 (5/3/2000; 2:14:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 29813) Loved the gold export chart thanks! I wanted to make sure people looked at the gold export chart posted just before by Elwood. I think it raises many significant questions. Simply Me (5/3/2000; 1:34:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 29812) Misspelled "Ruler of the World" Sorry..that's Planetarchis, not Panetar...oh, you know what I mean.simply :) Simply Me (5/3/2000; 1:30:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 29811) NEWS FLASH***** Just heard, England and German Stock Markets to merge. Just one simple line that says volumes. ASIDE..To Thai Gold.Please, continue to post. Your views are appreciated. Some of us who read your posts faithfully simply do not have enough knowledge of the subject to answer your questions or compose an interesting reply. But we count on folks like you to ask those interesting questions.Thanks to all for continued news and education.Hope all you posters and lurkers have your Golden Parachutes ready. There's not much time left to accumulate. I'm pretty sure TPTB are trying to patch the economy together till the Presidential election. They want either a Democrat or a Republican in the Whitehouse (doesn't matter which..they back both sides). If they can't, won't the Libertarians and various other Independent parties have a field day!If it's gonna blow anyway, I want to see it sooner rather than later....before TPTB get either Bush or Gore into the Whitehouse. Aren't they both Skull and Crossbones members?I'm sure Gore is. He's bought and paid for, for sure. As for Bush...well, Daddy paid his way.Alan Keyes for Panetarchis!Sorry...I tend to rant. That's why I don't post too often.Gold...Ready for Blastoff!simply me Elwood (5/3/2000; 1:11:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 29810) GoldTango Exports Analysis Completed http://www.geocities.com/goldtango/ We've completed our analysis of gold exports. Comments welcomed.Elwood ThaiGold (5/3/2000; 0:45:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 29809) Oooops.!. I spelled Solomon Weaver incorrectly. An apology... .........To: Solomon WeaverMy sincere apologies to you, for my error in spellingyour name. I am so-dumb, that I cannot even spell theword "mispell" correctly. Sheesh.Cordially,ThaiGoldThaiRanch@OperaMail.Com((Yesterday, I even misspelled my own e-mail address))======================================================== SHIFTY (5/3/2000; 0:16:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 29808) ThaiGold I think you should stay. Things are just starting to get interesting. ViewYesterday's Discussion.
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.