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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 10/3/1999 All times are U.S. Mountain Time View Yesterday's Discussion. Chris Powell (10/3/99; 23:05:16MDT - Msg ID:15342) S. African mines plan fatal blow to gold leasing http://www.egroups.com/group/gata/228.html? Big news from GATA. onlychild (10/3/99; 23:04:52MDT - Msg ID:15341) Clint H Great piece! I wish I had time to sit down and write an essay such as yours, but I don't. So can I borrow it? I think it may be closer to reality than we would care to know. By the way, there are two US shoe companies that I buy from: Mason Shoe and Danner. http://www.masonshoe.com/catalog.html http://www.danner.com GFD (10/3/99; 22:23:41MDT - Msg ID:15340) Risks For what its worth, I would like to suggest that it is very unlikely that the den of thieves and rapists otherwise known as COMEX will ever be alowed to default. Too damaging to public confidence in the markets. Now the Fed may rightly want certain operators in COMEX to suffer a well deserved demise but will only do it in a fashion that is discrete and efficient. The risk in this game is having too much paper and not enough physical. Gandalf the White (10/3/99; 22:20:21MDT - Msg ID:15339) Jump SPOT ! -- Jump! $308.40 now and getting ready for another jump !<;-) ET (10/3/99; 21:43:10MDT - Msg ID:15338) One more thing - I love a good rumor! http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001Vqz IMF Declines Comment on Report Camdessus to Resign as Managing Director By Heidi Przybyla IMF Spokesman Declines Comment on Report Camdessus to Resign Washington, Oct. 2 (Bloomberg) -- An International Monetary Fund spokesman declined comment on reports that Michel Camdessus plans to resign as IMF managing director. ``I'm not commenting one way or the other because I don't know,'' said Graham Newman, IMF chief press officer. Newman was responding to a report today in the Independent newspaper in London that Camdessus will quit the IMF's top job by Christmas. The Independent cited unnamed Washington sources as saying that Camdessus met with senior officials last week to tell them of his intention to resign. Talk that Camdessus might resign circulated in Washington this week, where IMF officials were meeting. Camdessus gave the reports short shrift when asked about them at a press conference Thursday. ``I hear that (an IMF spokesman) keeps repeating that I enjoy my job,'' said Camdessus. ``I must confirm it.'' Francisco Baker, another IMF spokesman, said Camdessus has previously denied plans to step down. ``He has already denied this several times,'' he said. Baker suggested nothing has changed since Camdessus' comments Thursday. ``You think he is going to say something Thursday and then change his mind?'' Baker said. Camdessus, a former chairman of the European Economic Community and French finance minister, has been in his current position since 1987. A Bank of France spokesman said he had ``no comment on the (resignation) rumors,'' which to his knowledge ``have no basis.'' goldnbones (10/3/99; 21:21:25MDT - Msg ID:15337) chinese silver http://www.reuters.com/news/ nope, the link takes you to the Reuters headline page. However if you change the business news window from "top stories" to "commodities/energy" and hit the refresh button, the headline linking the article will become available.I hope that works for anyone foolish enough to try to follow my directions. ET (10/3/99; 21:17:41MDT - Msg ID:15336) Turbomeister, Al, Canuck, CM Hey guys - I wish I had more time, I'm off to Michigan early tomorrow so I'm getting ready tonight. Thanks for the kind words Turbo, I'll leave you with a passage this evening from F A Hayek, as it seems appropriate for Mr. Al. I'm making some good progress on this Linux deal but the main reason I'm doing it is so I have some other skills to fall back on come the new year. I'm trying to relearn some C++ I used to know and pick up Perl and Java. These PC's will still be around and maybe even relied on further in the future than now. It can't hurt.Canuck - I'm sure the options traders at least see the other side of the story now. As they always tell you when you first start out, only trade with money you can afford to lose. They never tell you that you can think you won but still lose anyway! I agree, the first priority is hard assets in your pocket.CM - I hope AEL's list helps you out. I don't have anything to add except that finishing up your preps while the dollar still buys a lot is crucial. We seem to be fighting two different deadlines here.Here's the Hayek from 'The Road to Serfdom', 1944;"If we are to build a better world, we must have the courage to make a new start - even if that means some reculer pour mieux sauter. It is not those who believe in inevitable tendencies who show this courage, not those who preach a 'New Order' which is no more than a projection of the tendencies of the last forty years, and who can think of nothing better than to imitate Hitler. It is, indeed, those who cry loudest for the New Order who are most completely under the sway of the ideas which have created this war and most of the evils from which we suffer. The young are right if they have little confidence in the ideas which rule most of their elders. But they are mistaken or misled when they believe that these are still the liberal ideas of the nineteenth century, which, in fact, the younger generation hardly knows. Though we neither can wish nor possess the power to go back to the reality of the nineteenth century, we have the opportunity to realize its ideals - and they were not mean. We have little right to feel in this respect superior to our grandfathers; and we should never forget that it is we, the twentieth century, and not they, who have made a mess of things. If they had not yet fully learned what was necessary to create the world they wanted, the experience we have since gained ought to have equipped us better for the task. If in the first attempt to create a world of free men we have failed, we must try again. The guiding principle that a policy of freedom for the individual is the only truly progressive policy remains as true today as it was in the nineteenth century."-- end Hayek.It's a good read. I highly recommend it. Talk to you guys later this week.ET Leigh (10/3/99; 21:13:42MDT - Msg ID:15335) Clint H Dear Clint: I feel, from reading Christian prophecy books about the "last days," that I know the end of the story (i.e., the "beast" who controls all commerce, mandatory biochips, major food shortages, horrifying devastation all over the world). What I don't know is how far we are from those last days, and just how the story will play out until we get there.What I REALLY believe is that there are powerful forces in the world which want to see humankind subservient to an elitist ruling class. I believe they've been plotting and working toward this for many years now and Y2K will be the catalyst that sparks it off. How we'll fare as gold owners, I don't know. I do think we're in the best position financially we can be in. But the rules could change on us. goldnbones (10/3/99; 21:11:50MDT - Msg ID:15334) chinese silver http://www.reuters.com/news/ I hope that link works. It doesn't look very specific. This article talks about China partially deregulating its silver market, with gold to follow. mike55 (10/3/99; 21:11:08MDT - Msg ID:15333) Eagles vs. Phillies Since I can only get here on a catch-as-catch-can basis, I ask forgiveness if this has been adressed before. I seem to remember a question (discussion?) on US Eagles versus Austrian Philharmonics. The face value of 2000 Schillings at the current exchange rate is about $156 compared to an Eagle at $50. Perhaps face value is a moot point depending on currency fluctuations or devaluations that are difficult to predict. What are the pros/cons of the Eagle versus Philharmonic relative to taxation, reporting requirements on purchase/sale, etc? I'm clear on the pre-'33 coins, but am thinking I may want to shift my modern bullion mix one way or the other. Comments or suggestions, anyone? Thanks in advance. THX-1138 (10/3/99; 21:09:48MDT - Msg ID:15332) Gold coins, and other thoughts Well I went and bought two more coins Saturday. The regular coin dealer wasn't there and won't be in until Tuesday. (Death in family or something...can't remember exactly). Because that person also is the stores coin buyer, (others just run the counter) they couldn't tell me much about Canadian Mounties or their prices. All they could quote was US Eagles ($330), Maple Leafs ($330), Krugerands ($326). I decided to purchase the Maple Leafs. The shop worker said they should be in by next Saturday.Regarding sending US into Dark Ages:If you were a foreign country hostile to the USA, what would you do to attack it?The easiest way I thought of was to cause social unrest and internal strife.The best way was to Crash the Stock Market and wipe out the "savings" of over 50% of the US population.Hey, if one wacked out day trader in Atlanta went on a shooting spree from losing $500k, what would happen if more that 30 million lost their life savings? Think about it.A foreign country wouldn't even have to set foot in the US and it would be hard to trace who caused the crash. Clint H (10/3/99; 21:00:00MDT - Msg ID:15331) Cavan Man, Leigh, Tomcat Cavan Man, You wrote,<<<What does it profit the world to devastate the US economy so as you describe? It doesn't. Perhaps I misunderstand. You use great deductive reasoning and good logic but methinks your theory is implausible.>>>I don't know. It's just scares me that this could happen and no one is preparing for it. I hope I'm wrong and you are right. Leigh<<<Clint H: Did you really write that? It sounds plausible to me. Another excellent reason to have gold.>>>Thanks. It's just a thought. We need to kick it around. If I'm right how do we prepare or prevent some of it from happening?Tomcat, you wrote <<Call it fiction if you will but that piece you just wrote really hits home.>>Thanks for the comeback. It scares me. If I'm right the recovery time for America will be much longer than the "30s." We are not self-sufficient any more. Leigh (10/3/99; 20:35:51MDT - Msg ID:15330) Cavan Man FOA said last Sunday that gold owners would be sought after and encouraged to spend their gold to get the economy going again. Another said the same thing in his "Thoughts!" Remember, he said holding gold would be smiled upon and holding Euros would be frowned at.Though FOA did imply we'd be taxed in a big way. I've been thinking about taxation lately, because I have heard the IRS is having Y2K problems. Does anyone think this will usher in a national sales tax instead of an income tax? It would make record-keeping a lot easier for the IRS. mike55 (10/3/99; 20:34:13MDT - Msg ID:15329) Cavan Man, AEL, Leigh http://www.usplastic.com Cavan Man -- The link from AEL is the best overall checklist I have found in the last year. While some may consider it a little over the edge, depending on your perspective, it does hit all the areas and causes you to think of basics you may not have considered.AEL -- Your 15309 post is what I've discussed before. The government is walking the fine line between adequate and timely disclosure versus "everything's fine". If the potential extent of problems were disclosed, people may just pay attention and cause "panic" that would bring the fractional reserve system and the equities markets to their knees. They've missed the boat on spreading the word over an extended period of time that would allow orderly transition of investments and supply preparedness.Leigh -- I've dealt with United States Plastic Corp. in Ohio earlier this year and have been very satisfied with their products, prices, and delivery. Try the link I posted (hope it works or I'll have to get one of my kids to show me how to do it). :-) Gandalf the White (10/3/99; 20:28:01MDT - Msg ID:15328) SteveH Quote.com shows Dec Gold (GC9Z) at 308.6 with a 30 min lag and FOREX.com shows SPOT the Dog at $307.20 at 7:26 PDT.<;-) Cavan Man (10/3/99; 20:26:34MDT - Msg ID:15327) nouveau riche "System" crashes and gold owners provide investment capital pool(s). Sound like a headline?Why wouldn't big bro allow the physical holders to rise? After all, the important people will more than likely be taken care of anyway yes? Cavan Man (10/3/99; 20:19:21MDT - Msg ID:15326) SteveH http://www.kitco.com/gold.live.html Steve,I use the above. It now shows $309 Cavan Man (10/3/99; 20:17:50MDT - Msg ID:15325) Tomcat What do you buy? Cavan Man (10/3/99; 20:14:30MDT - Msg ID:15324) ClintH Pardon. I meant to tie both paragraphs together with the statement, "Why send the US back to the Middle Ages"? The Scot (10/3/99; 20:12:37MDT - Msg ID:15323) Cavan Man Gas Masks CM, I live in Texas and you can usually find them at the Gun Shows, I don't remember where you live but that would be my suggestion. Sincerely, The Scot Tomcat (10/3/99; 20:12:00MDT - Msg ID:15322) Liegh, Canuck, Cavan Man Leigh: Peter Asher wanted to me to tell you that his lines are down and he couldn't continuew communicating.Canuck: Thanks for the nice compliment. It is a great group we have here.Cavan Man: I expect silver to take some heat as gold is sorted out. I then expect it to go above $8 (fairly soon). I holding for the long run. All physical. No paper. Cavan Man (10/3/99; 20:11:43MDT - Msg ID:15321) ClintH After the city of Rome was sacked and surrendered for the last time about 432 AD, the western world entered the dark and then the middle ages culminating in the renaissance and next, the reformation. What does it profit the world to devastate the US economy so as you describe? It doesn't. Perhaps I misunderstand. You use great deductive reasoning and good logic but methinks your theory is implausible. Leigh (10/3/99; 20:07:50MDT - Msg ID:15320) Cavan Man, Goldspoon Dear Cavan Man: My father-in-law, who is 79, remembers his great-aunt telling about that earthquake (she lived through it). If I can get him to tell me the story again, I'll write it up for you.Where is Goldspoon? He must be out riding his Horse with No Name. They're far in the lead this evening! SteveH (10/3/99; 20:04:30MDT - Msg ID:15319) Cavan Man CM,Where you getting your prices (real time)?SteveH Cavan Man (10/3/99; 20:02:52MDT - Msg ID:15318) Leigh Thanks. We live in an area that has a fault that when last moved, reversed the course of Big Muddy. With all the quake action, we're just waiting here. Tomcat (10/3/99; 20:01:04MDT - Msg ID:15317) Clint H Man, you can really communicate. Call it fiction if you will but that piece you just wrote really hits home. Cavan Man (10/3/99; 20:00:03MDT - Msg ID:15316) Tomcat 15286 What do you advise regards holding silver? Thanks. Canuck (10/3/99; 19:56:26MDT - Msg ID:15315) Elevator, Cavan, Mike, and boys Pulling your leg with the $404/oz. I'm sorry, the week-end is over, Sydney is open, no more kidding around.Let's have a good week!! (Hopefully $404 at the end of the week) Leigh (10/3/99; 19:56:02MDT - Msg ID:15314) Cavan Man, AEL, Clint H Cavan: I have seen these advertised at www.watertanks.com. Unfortunately, that site is down tonight. I have purchased 55-gallon water drums from this company, and they delivered them quickly.AEL: Thank you. Can you believe all this is going to happen in less than three months? I started preparing in earnest last December, and it seems like no time at all. And the whole subject is still a mystery.Clint H: Did you really write that? It sounds plausible to me. Another excellent reason to have gold! Cavan Man (10/3/99; 19:53:04MDT - Msg ID:15313) SPOG Now, $309.50. AEL (10/3/99; 19:51:11MDT - Msg ID:15312) Cavan Man: gas masks I picked up one of those Israeli masks at a gun show for about 12 bucks; extra filter cannisters for about 5 bucks. I've seen them in army surplus stores at higher prices. Not a bad idea to have some things like this around. I've also got some very fine-pore masks used by painters and asbestos workers. I hope to God(dess) that I'll never need stuff like that. Cavan Man (10/3/99; 19:51:06MDT - Msg ID:15311) SteveH Steve,What the heck is an upper 60 minute bollinger? SteveH (10/3/99; 19:48:32MDT - Msg ID:15310) All Upper 60-minute bollinger for Dec. gold is $310. She is at $308.80 now. Should it hit $312 then I believe it will track up to (possibly) $320 tonight or tomorrow. AEL (10/3/99; 19:38:51MDT - Msg ID:15309) authorities "why authorities are discouraging people from preparing..."Not discouraging really, Leigh, just profoundly unenthusiastic and dismissive about the whole thing. And to the extent that there is awareness, the orientation is to stress the "3 day storm" scenario so as to prevent panic -- which is a real risk, vis a vis the banking system, etc. 'Course, far as I'm concerned, the banking system *ought* to be brought down... by a dynamic and engaged citizenry, demanding an end to the fraud of fractional reserve banking, the federal reserve system, debt money, etc. But more likely would be the banking system brought down by paniced and disengaged individuals, all seeking to get their own dough out and to hell with the consequences to anyone else. Quite understandable, and I don't blame anyone, but it would be nice to think that we could figure an equitable and fair way out of such a mess, as a society. Impossible as long as there are no leaders of integrity and moral sensibility -- as there are not. (Geez, how did I get off onto that rant?)Anyhoo, the authorities (naturally) want everyone to think that everything will be A-OK in order to avert panic, which would result in mass bank withdrawals, mutual fund redemptions, etc., etc., (mass movement out of paper and intangibles) which could/would in turn precipitate a stock market collapse, mass insolvencies, etc., etc., you fill in the blanks. The whole financial casino/"system" could possibly blow up before the rollover, which would make the actual computer-related problems much worse. This has always been my second-biggest fear, after national electrical grid shutdown of any significant duration (which now -- happily -- looks pretty unlikely). Clint H (10/3/99; 19:36:58MDT - Msg ID:15308) A bigger puzzle? Sorry. This is the last part of the previous post that did not post. If this happened to the US, will it be the same in all countries? Are all central bankers playing this game? Will they also demand collateral that will eventually give them tittle to most assets in foreign countries?While all the attention is on the stock market and gold, the Fed is moving all the wealth of our nation out the back door. I know this is fiction. I made it up. Could it be true? Is there any discussion? If not, I will drop the subject but I am afraid for the US of A. I have gold. Will I be able to buy a shoe factory with it? All my shoes are foreign made at this time. What the US of A sells is information. I can't wear or eat information and I need a tractor to plow my farm. Got gold? Clint H (10/3/99; 19:29:59MDT - Msg ID:15307) A bigger puzzle? In our euphoria of watching the gold market breakout, we may not have noticed the largest asset transfer in US history. This transfer is being foisted upon the American people by the Federal Reserve Bank.What is the pattern for disposal of fiat currency during times of hyperinflation? Spend the currency as fast as possible on any asset at almost any price in order to get from paper to things of value.The Fed has announced that they will accept any collateral in exchange for FRNs sent to the banks as "liquidity injections." Pine trees and ink in exchange for assets of value. If the subject bank thought it worthy collateral for a loan, it must have some value.Most people have accepted the action of the Federal Reserve Bank as necessary to keep local banks liquid. It will keep the local bank liquid but at the expense of transferring the title to all local assets to the Federal Reserve.Picture a local bank in Anywhere USA. It is run by Mr. Joe Banker and was run by his father before him. Local Bank has been the lender for our area for two generations. They hold mortgages on farms, ranches, homes, commercial property, tractors, earth moving equipment, cars, motorcycles etc. Any of this has value but is also the infrastructure for the local economy.Who is the largest employer in your area? Has Joe Banker loaned them money? If he has, then there is a mortgage.Local Bank run by Joe Banker has only 2% reserves but not to worry. The Fed will ship him all the pine trees and ink he needs to stay liquid. The Fed will accept any collateral the bank has for the paper exchange (FRNs.)Joe Banker draws down 100% liquidity to return all deposits to his customers. Joe Banker surrenders all the collateral to the Fed because he is sure all his customers will be redeposit the withdrawn cash and he can redeem the collateral from the Fed. No one gets hurt or so we are led to believe. The money is not redeposited. Joe Banker has paid all his depositors and has retained his good name but Local Bank has no deposits and no collateral to bring in income. Local Bank is now out of business with "no one getting hurt." Joe Banker came thru for them. What about all the local assets? They are now held as collateral by the Federal Reserve Bank. If the payments are made on time the assets remain in the local economy. If not, foreclosure.Will 90% of the assets in the US revert to the Federal Reserve in the coming crises? Pine trees and ink (FRNs) was all it took to transfer the wealth of a nation to these bankers for one last fleecing.What do they do with the assets? The real estate will be sold into the market after a new monetary system has been established. This will be a 10 - 20 year process.How about equipment, factories, cars, boats, motorcycles, tractor, earth moving equipment, etc?Much of this will be put on ships and sold in world markets for EUROs. What a way to change worthless FRNs into EUROs. Is this possible? If a Harley Davidson motorcycle will sell for $50 thousand US now in Europe, will it bring $20 thousand EUROs under fire sale conditions? All it cost the Fed was pine trees and ink.Is the local steel mill needed in the US during a severe depression? No problem. Lay off the 700 employees, ship the equipment to (?) in exchange for EUROs and use it to manufacture steel that the US can purchase at a later date. There is a world market for all the inventory also.Garment and shoe factories have already left the country. Anyone can list many products that our parents helped to manufacture that are now imported. Much of the equipment to make the imports is the same equipment our parents labored over to make the very same product and at the same time a living for their families. How about the excavation and road building company near you? What would their dozers, scrapers, maintainers, etc. bring in EUROs if the used equipment was loaded onto a ship and exported? All it will cost the Fed is pine trees and ink. They will pay labor to load the ships in the same FRN currency, pine trees and ink.Does the forgiving of poor nations debt have anything to do with this picture? Is it part of the fleecing of America? Yes, These "POOR" nations will now be free to purchase vital equipment (to our nation) exported from the US. They can then use our previous industries to export products to the US of A as our economy recovers. Since we have no equipment, factories or industrial facilities we are at their mercy. It will be a long, painful and expensive experience. Will the Federal Reserve Bank care if their money making charter is revoked? If it is, they still walk away with most of the assets that were formerly our national wealth.Summary:- The Federal Reserve Bank exchanges FRNs for title to any and all assets as banks are forced to ask for printed notes to stay liquid.- The Fed will then acquire clear title to most of the assets in the US as defaults occur. This includes real estate, factories, vehicles, boats, motorcycles and any thing else that is valuable enough to carry a mortgage.- The Fed can then export factories, equipment, cars, boats, etc. to other countries in exchange for EUROs. This could also be in partnership with the Fed in overseas plants. - It will be many years before the US can recover any manufacturing capability especially if the remaining industrial equipment is exported.- All central banks, including the Federal Reserve Bank need the debt forgiveness for "poor" countries that is now talked about. This would allow a clean slate for establishment of exported industry and equipment in foreign countries. All this will be done in EUROs or any currency except FRNs. What a way for bankers to transfer from the $US to safer currencies. It appears that in less than one hundred years, the Federal Reserve bankers have managed to fleece the American people of our entire national wealth. We are now a third rate country with the best military in the world. However this is only for a short time because we are broke. If this happened to the US, will it be the same in all countries? Are all central bankers playing thi Cavan Man (10/3/99; 19:16:38MDT - Msg ID:15306) AEL RE: Air FiltrationI am looking for the type of "gas masks" I have seen used in Israel. Anyone know where these can be bought? Thanks..CM Cavan Man (10/3/99; 19:12:12MDT - Msg ID:15305) AL You're not alone (ranger). It breaks my heart more than I can tell. AEL (10/3/99; 19:08:40MDT - Msg ID:15304) Cavan Man -- list of supplies http://www.provide.net/~aelewis/gold/y2kstock.htm try the above link SteveH (10/3/99; 19:01:53MDT - Msg ID:15303) Dec. Gold up 3.00 at $308.30.Thanks Al. Al Fulchino (10/3/99; 18:54:44MDT - Msg ID:15302) Steve H Thanks for the post regarding confiscation. I am in total agreement with Justice Scalia. I had a thought earlier, that more than concerns me. I fear that I have lived during the generation that watched its freedom and country get lost in its comfort. Leigh (10/3/99; 18:42:20MDT - Msg ID:15301) Fort Knox Would someone mind straightening me out in reference to something in Chris Powell's story? I thought the gold in Fort Knox was never to be touched, at all. How can Goldman Sachs or any other firm even think of getting their paws on it? The gold belongs to the U.S. citizens; doesn't Congress have to give permission for it to be sold? Was that a joke in the story? Cavan Man (10/3/99; 18:42:15MDT - Msg ID:15300) AU Kitco shows $308.3. Market is just opening up. Cavan Man (10/3/99; 18:40:07MDT - Msg ID:15299) mike55, Canuck, ET Can you suggest a foodstuffs list or other essential items IYHO? Thanks. elevator guy (10/3/99; 18:37:46MDT - Msg ID:15298) Spot $404? Canuck, can you tell me where you are getting this info? I've been using quote.com/livechartscom/, and they show something like $306 right now, and the exchange has the letter code "g". What exchange is that? I think the New York market letter code is "w". (That refers to the COMEX, right? And of course its closed right now) And what is the letter code for Sydney?Some help, please? Chris Powell (10/3/99; 18:28:43MDT - Msg ID:15297) Karachi exchange suspension was caused by default http://www.egroups.com/group/gata/226.html? Latest from GATA. RossL (10/3/99; 18:23:33MDT - Msg ID:15296) Sydney just opened $307.40 in US dollars Canuck (10/3/99; 18:19:20MDT - Msg ID:15295) Sydney just opened Spot:$404/oz. Canuck (10/3/99; 18:15:57MDT - Msg ID:15294) To Tomcat Just wanted to mention that your messages in the last week to 10 days have been extremely informative. A couple weeks ago I was not following you at all. Thanks. elevator guy (10/3/99; 18:14:24MDT - Msg ID:15293) AEL and ET Just to let you know, I use Explorer, on a T1 connection, and USA GOLD Forum just appears instantaneously.So I don't think its the browser that is the biggest issue, although I'm sure there are subtle differences between some of the browsers on the market. Leigh (10/3/99; 18:02:57MDT - Msg ID:15292) AEL Dear AEL: Thank you for posting your friend's report. I was wondering what he would say about why authorities are discouraging people from preparing. That's something I CANNOT understand. Unless there is some diabolical plan to make everyone subservient to the government for food and power, it would be in their best interest to make sure people are well-fed and comfortable. The other day I went to the base housing office to ask about their Y2K preparedness. I wasn't confrontational; I was earnestly trying to find out what preparations they have made so I could fill in the gaps. The head of the office smilingly assured me that the power companies in the Northeast WOULD NOT FAIL because they run on older operating systems. Western systems, which are newer, might have trouble for a few days. Therefore, he said, they have made NO plans at all because nothing will happen. As we were saying goodbye, he told the clerk to make sure she got my name. WHY? Will my house be raided first by the military police? I lie awake at night in fear of having my house searched and supplies taken.You know, if things like food confiscation and so on do happen, people are going to be horrified. Bill Clinton will make himself the most hated person in America, and he will risk assassination. I honestly can't imagine what is going through the minds of these policymakers.Did anyone see the message last night on Gold Eagle about the man who was told by a bank teller that in two weeks they would stop giving out cash? Canuck (10/3/99; 18:00:44MDT - Msg ID:15291) ET 15266 'In my opinion the greatest risk today is not the trade itself but the clearing of the trade. Remember, your profit is only someone elses loss if he has the money or can borrow it from someone else.' --------------------------------------------------------This is the tail end of ET's message, please review and contemplate the A/FOA messages of 12 months prior. Review the past 2 days posts in reference to 'option' problems.IMHO, this is not the time to hedge, speculate, bet on 'futures', buy an 'option', liquidity is the key, you must have physical in hand, physical in hand dictates your position, you control the price. Be careful, be confident,hold it in your hand, the price IS going up, do you want to be in a position of buying or selling? mike55 (10/3/99; 17:54:53MDT - Msg ID:15290) Cavan Man, Tomcat, Canuck Cavan Man -- What offense? Certainly none taken. I apologize if my post was construed by you to be directed at anyone on this site. My comment of "naysayers" was related to co-workers, a lot of the general populace, and unfortunately, even some of my family members. Since the fact is that "no one knows for sure" what may happen, being prepared with the basics, including gold, seems to make sense to me.Tomcat -- Thanks. We're on the same page.Canuck -- Choose the industry: oil, food, finance, medical, raw materials/finished goods....let's hope for the best. If it's non-eventful and there's certain goods I have in surplus, I'll use what I can and donate the rest to elderly neighbors, shelters, and soup kitchens that are always in need.Gotta' go -- three sons in need of the computer for homework. Thanks all! AEL (10/3/99; 17:44:38MDT - Msg ID:15289) Cottam on Y2K Here, in response to a couple requests, is the full writeup that I mentioned earlier. It is a bit long, but very well-documented; a neat piece to clip and mail to friends who shrug off Y2K. It is not anywhere on the web that I know of. I got it by email. -----------------------------------------------Date: Thu, 23 Sep 1999 11:34:09 -0400From: Terry Cottam <di238@freenet.carleton.ca>Subject: Oil Disruptions May Crash Markets In January 2000OIL DISRUPTIONS MAY CRASH MARKETS IN JANUARY 2000-------------------------------------------------By Terry Cottam, Ottawa, Canada, 23 Sep 1999 Revised, expanded from an article for Peace and Environment News,Oct 1999IN THIS ARTICLE: -- Markets could crash -- Long-term food shortages likely -- The "Lucy factor" -- Authorities fight efforts to prepare -- What's Next?OIL IS OFTEN OVERLOOKED in all the seemingly good news lately on Y2K. TheInternational Energy Agency (IEA) warns "vulnerabilities still exist at all levels ofthe oil supply chain." [1] A survey by Gartner Group revealed U.S. companies have "notbeen providing accurate disclosures" on their Y2K risks. The IEA says this could have"serious implications" for oil supplies. [2] Another oil industry observer expects"multiple embedded systems going down on each oil well" with no parts or replacementsystems available "for quite a long while." [3]Canada exports to the US, which in turn imports half its supply. The Maritimes dependentirely on imports. But the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers surveyed itsmembers and says 100 per cent "expect to have mission critical systems tested andcompliant ...before year-end 1999." [4]Such Y2K self-reporting is usually unaudited and therefore unreliable. The NationalEnergy Board (NEB) has quietly imposed a requirement for third-party Y2K auditing for"all major regulated pipelines." However other NEB-regulated companies are only"required to file quarterly progress reports." [5] We should watch for more details inupcoming Y2K hearings, shortly after House of Commons resumes sitting on Oct 12th.They are open to the public only for viewing, and are barely publicized. Please see mywebsite below for updates on time and place.The American Petroleum Institute (API) says "Americans can expect few, if any,shortages," [6] and says major oil exporters such as Venezuela and Saudi Arabia willbe prepared. [7] More credible sources such as the Gartner Group [8] suggest OPECcountries are far behind in Y2K oil preparations. The API also claims the industry"has no plans to ration fuel and foresees no need to do so." [9] In fact, OPECproducers are increasing the risk of shortages by deliberately CUTTING PRODUCTION TOKEEP PRICES UP even though Y2K fears may "cause consumers, processors and distributorsto stockpile crude oil and products." [10] Oil may still be enroute from the Arabian Gulf for the first 35 days of 2000. [11] Butby mid-January, if the tankers are loading less oil, this foretells rising oil pricesand gasoline rationing. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve could supply 3.9 millionbarrels per day for 90 more days. [12] At worst, the reserves would run out in May2000. The U.S. General Accounting Office questions whether the reserve "would beavailable or sufficient in case of shortages," and says U.S. companies "haven'testablished a cooperative nationwide contingency plan for Y2K problems, such as supplyshortages or disruptions." [13]MARKETS COULD CRASHThe stock markets may react within days of the first reports of serious oil shortagesin January 2000. They are already unstable, having been weakened by governmentcontrols which encourage stock market speculation. Says Mark Germine, an Americanexpert in systems theory: "If the market were in a stable position, the Y2K phenomenonwould have only a minor, transient effect. However, we are already in an overinflatedmarket of the same magnitude as accompanied the crash of 1929. Our current 'control'of the market, is, paradoxically, what has caused us to reach this position of loss ofcontrol." [14]If the markets crashed, then "we would suddenly be in a very different world" sayscurrency expert Bernard Lietaer. "In 1929, the stock market crashed, but the goldstandard held. The monetary system held." But now, power has shifted drastically fromgovernments to financial markets. Lietaer cites the Roman Empire collapse, which endedRoman currency. "That was, of course, at a time when it took about a century and ahalf for the breakdown to spread through the empire; now it would take a few hours."[15] In the Depression, economic suffering prompted people to start up localcurrencies. This may again become a desirable complement to federal currencies if theybecome destabilized. (For a new way to quickly launch local currencies, please seehttp://communityway.org.)Why this fragility, especially since the financial sector is widely deemed a low Y2Krisk? For starters, "sectors it totally depends on like energy and telecommunicationsare at high-to-medium risk" says Roberto Verzola. As depositors and fund managers gettheir funds out of high-risk areas, they would likely seek "real, tangible assetswhich do not lose their value so easily -- land, production facilities and tools,goods, precious metals, and so on." But for years, governments have allowed banks toissue dubious loans using new money. As a result, "$20 to $50 of money or itsequivalent is circulating today for every dollar of real goods and services." Ifnervous investors try to convert all these floating dollars at once into real goodsand services, "we'd have the equivalent of some 20 cars racing for the parking spacefor one." [16]LONG-TERM FOOD SHORTAGES LIKELYMay 2000 is also planting season in the Northern Hemisphere. Economist Ed Yardeniasked the U.S. Senate: "Will disruptions in our energy supply chains (electric, oil,and gas) hamper the ability of farmers to grow their crops and feed their livestock?"[17] According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the whole food chain isvulnerable. "Basic inputs like seeds and fertilizers could be threatened - as well assupplies of irrigation water and electricity." However, "most experts pinpointtransportation as the weakest link." [18] Food requires on average 2000 km ofmotorized transport from farm to fork. [19] Supermarkets hold just three days supplyof food. Here in Ottawa, Canada, unlike other cities, we have no food warehousingfacilities. THE "LUCY FACTOR"Many people assume that governments and corporations won't let Y2K affect their holdon power. But Jim Lord notes that "over the past thirty years and more, six of everyseven large software projects are either finished late or cancelled. Meanwhile, Y2K isthe largest and most expensive software project in history and it has an inflexibledeadline." [20]Lord refers to the "Lucy Factor" after the running gag in the Peanuts comic strip."What makes this gag so funny is that Lucy always assures Charlie that THIS TIME shewon't move the ball. Good old trusting Charlie always believes her but she alwaysmoves the ball. And down goes Charlie." The authorities are Lucy. We are Charlie Brown. Decades of managerial incompetencebrought us the Y2K problem in the first place. In 1960, Robert Bemer, an "IBM wizard"joined 47 other industry and government specialists in lobbying for the four-digitdate standard. But in 1970, the U.S. Department of Defense, the largest computeroperator on earth, set the industry standard by refusing to adopt the four-digit year."For bigger-bang-for-the-buck reasons, it was unshakable on the subject of year dates:no 19s. 'They wouldn't listen to anything else,' says Harry White, a D.O.D.computer-code specialist and Bemer ally. 'They were more occupied with ... Vietnam.'"[21]People have been fooled by the official "happy talk" on Y2K into assuming business asusual. For instance, last week, over 1,000 organizations from 80 countries demanded ahalt to talks in Seattle by the World Trade Organization (WTO), fearing it is becominga "secret world government." [22] But this won't happen if cheap, plentiful oil comesto an end. The WTO, its giant corporate clients, and nation-states of any size allrely completely on "bug-free" technology, including oil-based transport, to maintaintheir organizational integrity. Meanwhile, it's a safe bet that few of those 1,000citizens groups are planning for any disruptions in grants, fundraising, transport,faxing, email or phones next year, or anticipate their staff, volunteers and donorswill suffer loss of food, water, heat, money or other essentials. AUTHORITIES FIGHT EFFORTS TO PREPAREThe Cassandra Project is widely acclaimed as the pioneer of Y2K community preparednessgroups. Its mottos are "Individual preparedness is for those who can. Communitypreparedness is for those who cannot" [23] and "The best security is a preparedneighbor." [24] But across North America, grassroots organizers report that "verylittle progress has been made" with local governments since January. Public interest"began to plummet" in March. Since then, community organizing has become "increasinglydifficult." [25] Boulder County, Colorado remains a notable exception. There, Kathy Garcia spearheadeda successful model of neighbourhood organizing. It has been spread far and wide byUtne Reader's Y2K Citizens Action Guide, an invaluable, practical little booklet. [26]But cynical reviewers found it naively upbeat. [27] In retrospect, the guideunderestimated opposition to community organizing. READY-2000, our local Y2K "public/private partnership" declined a request by our Y2Kcitizens group that they distribute the guide. They did not allow us to join theirplanning process. True, we have some of the best prepared municipal services in NorthAmerica. Hence their slogan "we expect little or no service disruptions." But fewresidents bothered to attend their poorly publicized "community forums." [28] Theydismissed our arguments that we cannot trust unverified, self-reported assurances onoil, food and other critical outside dependencies. Because Ottawa experienced the ice storm, READY-2000 suggests that residents stock upfor 4-7 days of problems. But the proportion of residents intending to purchase extrasupplies has dropped by half, from 50.1% in January to 23.1% in July, even though foodand other goods may never be this cheap again. [29] Almost everywhere else,authorities discourage stockpiling for more than a "three-day winter storm." Beyondthat is deemed to be hoarding and panic. [30] WHAT'S NEXT?With just 100 days left until the year 2000, we now have the benefit of somedisturbing hindsight. Many city residents will not prepare until after they sufferdisruptions. If the economy crashes, Ottawa may still avoid the riots and lootingwhich will undoubtedly hit large U.S. cities. If oil becomes scarce or very expensive, only a fortunate few may own or drive avehicle. After a difficult winter, we may see more urban food production. Thepopulation may shift towards food and water supplies. The city may be forced to becomelike rural areas, more prepared and mutually supportive. The Cassandra Projectcautions, "you can't get away from this problem. You're safer and better off in anarea you know well... No matter how bad it gets, problems will eventually pass. We'realways stronger and better able to handle any emergency if we all work together." [31]But for now, working together is precluded by the implacable opposition of bigbusiness and big government. Please see http://y2k.inode.org for more references on oil, money, Y2K preparedness,and the upcoming Y2K federal hearings here in Ottawa. -------Terry Cottam can be emailed at y2k-ottawa@inode.org, or tel. (613) 236-6433 (yourfeedback is much appreciated). He has researched the Year 2000 computer problem for 15months, informing local residents with support from the Ontario Public InterestResearch Groups at Carleton University and the University of Ottawa (OPIRG-Carleton,OPIRG-Ottawa). He co-founded the Y2K Centretown Preparedness Group in November 1998.It went region-wide in February 1999, then dissolved in July 1999. --------------------------------------------------------------------------Endnotes:1 International Energy Agency, "Update on the IEA's Y2K Activities," July 1999http://www.iea.org/ieay2k/homepage.htm 2 International Energy Agency, "IEA Working Paper: The Year 2000 Problem and the OilIndustry, Preliminary Findings," Mar 1999 http://www.iea.org/ieay2k/html/Prefind.htm3 Gold-Eagle - The Internet's Premier Financial Magazine, Oil and Natural Gas: AreThey the Real Problems in Y2K? - Jun 21, 1999http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_99/rc062199.html4 Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), Canadian Gas Association (CGA),Press Release: "Year 2000 Readiness; A Status Review of Canadian crude oil and naturalgas producers plus related natural gas transmission and distribution systems." May1999 http://www.cga.ca/PressRelease/cgacapp.htm 5 John McCarthy, Business Leader, Operations, National Energy Board, (403) 299-2766,jmccarthy@neb.gc.ca. Emailed response, 21 Sep 19996 American Petroleum Institute, "Y2K Questions and Answers for Consumers," August 161999, http://www.api.org/ecit/y2k/faqs/consumer.html#available7 American Petroleum Institute, "Imports Will Flow to the U.S. During Year 2000Conversion," 06/28/1999 http://www.api.org/ecit/y2k/whitepapers/imports.html8 Lou Marcoccio, Research Director, Gartner Group, cited in "Y2K could affect flow ofU.S. oil imports," Kate Snow, CNN, March 21, 1999.http://www.cnn.com/TECH/computing/9903/21/bigpicture.y2k.hln/9 American Petroleum Institute, "Y2K Questions and Answers for Consumers," August 16,1999, http://www.api.org/ecit/y2k/faqs/consumer.html#ration10 World Bank, "Global Commodity Markets, Summary," July 1999http://www.worldbank.org/prospects/gcmonline/summary.pdf See also "Special Feature,Anticipating Y2K," July 1999http://www.worldbank.org/prospects/gcmonline/y2kfeature.pdf11 American Petroleum Institute, "Imports Will Flow to the U.S. During Year 2000Conversion," 06/28/1999 http://www.api.org/ecit/y2k/whitepapers/imports.html12 U.S. General Accounting Office, "Year 2000 Computing Crisis: Readiness of the Oiland Gas Industries," May 19, 1999, pp 3-4http://www.gao.gov/monthly.list/may99/may9913.htm#413 E. L. Core, "IEA, USS, GAO, DJN, NYT: Fear-Mongering, Panic-Baiting Y2K MoneyGrubbers?" June 2, 1999, http://www.wbn.com/y2ktimebomb/Media/lcore9922.htm 14 Mark Germine, M.D. (publishes e-journal Dynamical Psychiatry) "Y2K Crash: Why this?Why Now?" On the website "Book of Eli" (an anonymous author),http://www.bookofeli.com/photo.htm 15 Bernard Lietaer, "Beyond Greed and Scarcity," Interview by Sarah van Gelder,Editor, Yes! A Journal of Positive Futures, Spring 1997http://www.futurenet.org/2Money/Lietaer.html16 Roberto Verzola, "Y2K: The Homestretch,"http://www.inode.org/y2k-news-archive/msg00031.html 17 Dr. Edward Yardeni, Chief Economist & Managing Director, Deutsche Bank Securities,one of eleven unanswered questions on Y2K and the Food Supply in his "Statement to theU.S. Senate Committee On Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry, Hearing on the Year2000 Problem and Agriculture," July 22, 1998http://www.senate.gov/~agriculture/yardeni.htm 18 U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), "The Millennium Bug threatens foodsupply systems - developing countries are also vulnerable, FAO warns," 19 April 1999http://www.fao.org/news/1999/990302-e.htm19 Donella H. Meadows, adjunct professor, environmental studies, Dartmouth College,Nova Scotia, "Y2K and the Average Bite of Food," 2 July 1998, The Global Citizen,http://iisd1.iisd.ca/pcdf/meadows/y2k.htm20 Jim Lord, "The Real Y2K Problem," April 12, 1999,http://www.wbn.com/y2ktimebomb/Tip/Lord/lord9915.htm21 Robert Sam Anson, "The Y2K Nightmare," January 1999, Vanity Fair,http://www.bookofeli.com/Y2Kstockmarket.htm22 "NGOs Mobilise Against WTO," BRIDGES Weekly Trade News Digest, Vol.3, Number 37, 20Sep 1999, http://www.ictsd.org/html/newsdigest.htm orhttp://www.flora.org/flora.mai-not/1387523 Paloma O'Riley, "Individual Preparation for Y2K," 2 Feb 1999. Cassandra Project,http://cassandraproject.org/indprep.html24 Paloma O'Riley, "Individual Preparation for Y2K," XI. A. "Your Neighborhood"25 Y2K Grassroots Community Preparedness Survey, 20 May 1999,http://www.nhne.com/y2kgrassrootssurvey/index.html26 Utne Reader Citizens Action Guide, http://www.utne.com/aY2K.tmpl27a Christina Spencer, Editorial Pages Editor, Ottawa Citizen, review of Utne ReaderY2K Citizens Action Guide, 1999/01/04http://www.ottawacitizen.com/columnists/spencer/990104/jan4.html27b James Poniewozik, Salon online magazine, "the world is ending -- LET'S GET TO KNOWOUR NEIGHBORS!" 1999/01/05, http://www.salon.com/media/poni/1999/01/05poni2.html28 "APOCALYPSE (maybe): What if someone called a calamity and nobody came?" OttawaCitizen, 1999.05.30, The Citizen's Weekly, C5 http://www.inode.org/y2k-news-archive/msg00021.html29 Corporate Research Group Ltd., "PERCEPTIONS 2000 - #2, JULY 1999; Awareness of Year2000 computer problem," survey of 407 adults in the Ottawa-Hull area, week of July26th, 1999, http://www.inode.org/y2k-news-archive/msg00032.html30 "Letter to [CBS] 60 Minutes from the Food Industry," posted on the Web by the U.S.Department of Agriculture, June 1999 http://www.usda.gov/aphis/FSWG/60minutesltr.html31 Cassandra Project, "Year 2000 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ),"http://cassandraproject.org/y2kfaq.html turbohawg (10/3/99; 17:37:32MDT - Msg ID:15288) ET >Now if we could just find some more reps like Ron Paul.<Right you are ... the potential is there, but as you undoubtedly know, those potential reps reside in the Libertarian Party, as AREM points out, and the LP just can't seem to get any traction. Recent figures do show, however, that the LP has multiplied both it's membership and contributors on the order of eight-fold in just the last 4 years or so.It's interesting that in this Klinton-conceived New Era economy <cough><hack>, that the major parties appear to be fracturing. The anointed Democrat, VP Gore, is facing a challenge from Bradley, with others possible (Warren Beatty ?!) The Republicans are seeing defections (Buchanan, Bob Smith). Even the Reform Party now has the American Reform Party splintering off.Peering into my crystal ball (I can't claim my crystal ball has the clarity of Gandalf's), I see the LP being pulled into the mainstream when hard times hit and persist and the masses become desperate for answers ... wishful thinking perhaps.>At least we won't be stuck with a national id when we want to exchange our gold for Euros, eh?<Indeed !! But they'll likely have some pernicious scheme up their sleeve. Therefore, one might want to consider hedging against the dollar in other ways too, such as an account held in another currency (as touched on the other day by gidsek and PH in LA) or in the Franklin-Templeton Hard Currency Fund, which protects against a weakening dollar by investing in other currencies (when last checked about a year ago, it was about 75% in the mark, franc, and yen, I believe). Keep us updated on your experience with Linux ... that's interesting.By the way, given your talent for providing an appropriate Mises quote for any situation, have you considered doing a regular snippet of Mises quotes ?? How 'bout it ?? I even have a name to suggest !! Mises Pieces !! (Apologies to Reece's). Canuck (10/3/99; 17:34:36MDT - Msg ID:15287) Tomcat, Mike55, AEL, DD Y2K........ 10% left. Glad you guys responded to my message last night.Y2K will be a terror, make no mistake about it. The financially elite have and will deal with it (ie: countries,corporations and individuals). The financially strapped are forced with 'FOF'. How does that grab you? The oil industryhas seen low margin prices for a long time (say up to 10 months ago), they have not had time nor money to 'anticipate' Y2K remediation. The USA imports nearly 30% of its oil from S.A. Can you begin to imagine if the USA receives 70% of its required oil in Jan. 2000?I was aimlessly walking about the ranch today when it dawned on me that coffee is going to go through the roof.Coffee is S.A. Chocolate bars, hmmmm, caramilk bars, I told my kids I'm buying 1,000 caramilk bars just in case of Y2K.My son said, "What if Y2K is nothing and you have a 1,000 caramilk bars, what are you going to do with them?"I'm going to eat them, son; and if Y2K is fearsome, I will eat half and sell the other half for $7.95 each!Thus my friends, is the no-lose scenario for Y2K, which co-incidentally involves purchasing LARGE BAGS OF GOLD. Tomcat (10/3/99; 17:28:49MDT - Msg ID:15286) Ted Butler on Silver http://www.gold-eagle.com/research/butlerndx.html My positive position on silver has been, over time, highly influenced by Ted Butler, the author of the above linked article.When reading the above post, which sounds a bit wild, keep in mind who the author is. The author, Ted Butler, was exposing the gold/silver short scam when many of us did not have a clue. He preached and talked and wrote when many could care less. In April of 97 he wrote a public letter to Mr. Greenspan and Mr. Rubin exposing the scam directly to them. This year he took on the commodity regulators. Ted knows commodity trading and is tough. I respect him. Gandalf the White (10/3/99; 17:14:30MDT - Msg ID:15285) Hey GOLDFLY ! Time to wakeup SPOT and SPIKE !! -- and see what you started at the FORUM, --- Tis looking more like MoTown or Country Hoedown boards now. -- Get Au or get the Blues.<;-) schippi (10/3/99; 17:00:27MDT - Msg ID:15284) It doesn't get much better then this! Regression analysis of all 39 Fidelity Select sectors which collectively act as a proxy for the market, show: Precious Metals (FDPMX) and Select Gold ( FSAGX) to be in First and Second place on the 30 day regression table. Also FDPMX is First on the 60 day table and FSAGX is Third. FSAGX & FDPMX Hourly Gold chart: http://www.SelectSectors.com/agpm70.gif Ps: Even if you hate mutual funds, The Select Gold sectors have less noise than the XAU, and therefore are better/easier for prediction. Tomcat (10/3/99; 16:37:21MDT - Msg ID:15283) Turbo, Mike55, ET, DD, Peter A, Chicken man, AREM, MK Turbo: Your post on the national ID card was very helpful. I was wondering if that bill would go through. Mike55: I remember out earlier communication. The information you presented about that manufacturing company could, IMO, very well be a representative example of a firm's preparadness. Scary.DD: If more people could experience the BS, unethical actions, and fraud that occurs in the last 10% of a project then we would would have a lot more people prepared for y2k.Peter Asher: I lived in Hollywood and worked in Burbank for over twenty years. Got to know a lot of people in the music and film industry. You would do great there with your creativity. Chicken man: Great perspective on who is liable. But what happens if we have four or five LTCMs? Perhaps the expression is Doomer Rumor Tumor! Can the FED print money that faster then the tumor spreads? AREM: I am checking into the Libertarian Party. Got to do something. Hope we have elections next fall!Leigh: I read and enjoy your posts. Nice to have you hear.Cavan Man: Didn't see anything that would be taken as offensive. Always get something out of your posts and questions.AEL: Do you have a link to your friends's post?MK: Just started reading your recommended "The House of Morgan". So far so good. One of the first things that I notice is that the Morgan interests have been super close to the FED and they are one of the groups who are very short on gold! Makes one wonder.The Stranger, Aristotle, Aragorn III et al: Where are you?All: Should be a very interesting week which we all will share. Chicken man (10/3/99; 16:22:38MDT - Msg ID:15282) Peter Asher - Yep...! The way I read it ...till the CFTC sorts out everthing ...it's frozen....the question is ...when would they get around to "sorting" things out....? after the market peaked..?.and leave one high and dry without any profitsThis could change the tears of joy to tears of sorrow....something a person "remembers for a lifetime"...! why take a chance on a under-capitalize firm to save 5 bucks..? AREM (10/3/99; 15:50:52MDT - Msg ID:15281) To ET (10/3/99; 9:42:39MDT - Msg ID:15266) and other friends of Liberty http://www.house.gov/paul/openingpage.htm You said: <<<Turbo - thanks for that bit about the National ID card. Good to see that at least some can see the freedom and liberty ramifications from that bit of bs. Now if we could just find some more reps like Ron Paul. At least we won't be stuck with a national id when we want to exchange our gold for Euros, eh?>>>Check out Congressman's Paul home page at the above link, called PROJECT FREEDOM. Be sure to read his biography.The following is from his web page: The Congressional Record (House)May 16, 1997Voting for libertarianism is voting for Liberty[Page: H2862] (Responding to criticism from two members, both saying that Ron Paul is too consistent.)(Mr. PAUL asked and was given permission to address the House for 1 minute.) Mr. PAUL. Mr. Speaker, we have just finished the debate on the jobs programs bill, and in the discussion I was referred to as a libertarian, but a very consistent one that voted the same way on each type of legislation. I would like to remind my colleagues that voting for libertarianism is voting for liberty. Also it is a very consistent vote with the doctrine of enumerated powers. It is said in the Constitution that we can only do here in the Congress which is enumerated by the clauses within the document. So therefore, if it is said that I am very consistent and want to be labeled as libertarian, that is one thing, I do not deny that. But in the other sense, I am a strict constitutionalist that obeys and listens very carefully to my pledge to the Constitution as well as paying close attention to the ninth and tenth amendment. -------------------------------I also urge everyone to check out the Libertarian Party web site at http://www.lp.org/ and be sure to take the World's Smallest Political Quiz.AREM Angel (10/3/99; 15:38:16MDT - Msg ID:15280) Leigh, Peter Leigh...I love it and I would love to be a judge but I don't have very much time today. # 2 son is coming home on leave from the Navy and I have spent all day cooking his favorite foods and getting ready......maybe later tonight after we have had time to catch up.Peter...so glad you deceided to post. As I told you last night I smell Grammy.All: I certainly hope we aren't offending anyone with all this levity. We still have hours before the overseas markets open on what may be the start of the BIG GOLD RUSH.Besides I would really like to see Goldfly tackle something like "Bad To The Bone". I should have known he wasn't a Roberta Flack kinda guy. Peter Asher (10/3/99; 15:31:42MDT - Msg ID:15279) ChickenMan, Ray et al Chicken ManIf I read you right, The money owed by the option writer is secured by his credit and margin with his Brokerage outfit and that ALL positions that firm has with the Comex are subject to being held as collateral. BTW Remember several months back, they HALVED the margin requirements on option writing. That is a perfect example of braiding your own hanging rope. Chicken man (10/3/99; 15:15:14MDT - Msg ID:15278) Ray - Beware of the rumor tumor...! This is first of many "tumor rumors" (COMEX is terminally ill)....there will be more too..! as to the health of the COMEX....they are bent in a pretty bad way about now,but they won't go busted....they can't go busted right now, the FED needs them....if the US loses their "gold market",then where is gold going to be traded in the world....and what "influence" could the FED have on the POG...? they have their "ways" of healing theirselves.....GS could "dump" all their gold they have been accumilating,nice profit to boot....the floor could increase volitility to the upside first to get all the boys standing around the water cooler to buy the hottest thing going (gold calls)....then "beat the living daylight" out of the metal markets......and increase the margin due to extreme volitility.....this would give the floor a great chance to get on the right side of the market...eh?The game being played at the COMEX is a zero sum game....for every $ "won" , some poor ole soul lost a $.....I don't look for the COMEX to belly up as much as I do all the little dot. com. commodity trading firms.....if you don't get your margin call to your brokerage firm,they have to have sufficiant capital to cover their traders loses overnight.....every brokerage has to play "bank" ....the COMEX does not play "bank"...in a case where a brokerage firm can't cover their loses ,all accounts are frozen (ie, Griffin Trading Co,Dec,98, London)...this comes from the Mar99 issue of FUTURES mag.....The point I'm trying to make is don't worry about the COMEX....worry about the firm that is "holding" your money...ps...I'm in the process of transfering my account to a "large" firm...What was your first trade 28 yrs ago..? Peter Asher (10/3/99; 14:53:41MDT - Msg ID:15277) Leigh and All I must confess to being the "Agent Provocateur" to Leigh's decision to be the leader of the Forum Glee Club. I wrote this for a post last night, and then chickened out and sent it just to Leigh and Angel. ----Personally, I could use some distraction between now and tomorrow's Comex openingToday, inspired by our new member, Angel, we bring you the first unauthorized broadcast of the Forum "New Gold Oprey"First to the tune and following lyrics of Baez's "Copper Kettle"Get you a cooper kettle, get you a copper coil.Cover with new made corn mash, and never more you'll toil.(Chorus)You'll just lay there by the juniper, while the moon is bright,Watch them jugs a filling, in the pale moonlight.My daddy he made whisky, my granddaddy did too,We ain't paid no whisky tax since seventeen ninety-two.*****We have the Commodities E-trader theme song ----Get you a copper future, get you a future in oil.Cover your short sale corn cash, and never more you'll toil.Chorus:You'll just stay there by the computer, trading through the night.Watch those orders filling, though bid and asked are tight.My daddy he traded risky, my granddaddy did too.I've been taking profits, since nineteen ninety-two.Chorus ---Then we have, to a tune and words you will all remember,The "Short Seller's Lament. Oh, I missed the trend we're on, didn't know the Gold's all gone.You could hear me screaming loud, "Five hundred dollars?"(Chorus)Five hundred dollars! Five hundred dollars! Spot Gold's got me by the collar. You could hear me screaming load, "Five Hundred dollars?(Then the second stanza works as written!!!)Not a shirt on my back, not a penny to my name.Lord, I can't a'go on living this a'way. ------ Leigh (10/3/99; 14:30:45MDT - Msg ID:15276) Forum Songwriters OK, let's liven things up a little bit here. Let's write songs! I'll start:GOLDBUGS' GLOAT TO OUR STOCKHOLDING FRIENDSIf you miss the train we're on,You will know the gold's all gone.Lord, it's 500 now and to the moon!To the moon, to the moon, to the moon, to the moon,Lord, it's 500 now and to the moon!Not a shirt on your back,Not a penny to your name.Lord, you don't have a home left, anyway,Anyway, anyway, anyway, anyway,Lord, you don't have a home left, anyway.Would anyone care to add lyrics, or write new songs? Angel, would you like to judge our feeble little efforts? No prize or anything, just a break from boredom. DD (10/3/99; 14:01:02MDT - Msg ID:15275) Tomcat -- Y2k/90% Complete Tomcat - Well said. Having consulted with a number of software/high-tech firms, projects generally are on time until 90% of the budgeted time has elapsed. Then, if the project isn't cancelled, it's rushed to "completion" in order to minimize the number of months the project will slip. All sorts of corner cutting is promoted, particularly in testing, and the product is put into production/shipped to the customer. Then, the phone starts ringing off the hook as users scream bloody murder that the stuff doesn't work. This causes huge amounts of fire fighting resources to be chaotically flung upon the mess. This is called in Y2k terms, "Fix on Failure". Good luck with this strategy in a globally interconnected system of systems that nobody understands or could ever hope to. I think there's two questions we should be asking ourselves -- in this order. Prepared for Y2k? Got gold, too? Best, DD ET (10/3/99; 12:46:32MDT - Msg ID:15274) Cavan Man Hey CM - offense? What offense? Like Tomcat has said, the big test is yet to come! Only one test matters and that is the one at the end of the year when it all tries to work together. Only then will one know if he made the right call, eh? Just like this gold thing, when everybody knows what to do, it's too late to do anything! We're all speculators at this point, some seem to be a bit more conservative than others. Who was it that said, 'Time will prove all things!'? <g>ET ET (10/3/99; 12:37:41MDT - Msg ID:15273) Ray Hey Ray - 38 years! How many times have you made a fortune and lost a fortune? It seems to me the Comex is already bankrupt. They can't cover these positions and they know it. The floor traders have had it and if I'm not mistaken the only backup they have is the exchange itself. I suppose they'll have to get in the ever-increasing-in-length line at the Fed for their bailout. It makes you wonder if they'll be able to find a chair of their own when the music stops. I think what people forget is the fact that gold isn't just 'any' commodity. It is real money and when the world starts demanding real money an exchange such as this will never have the liquidity to keep the market stable (or even open for that matter). - got liquidity?ET Cavan Man (10/3/99; 12:25:38MDT - Msg ID:15272) Tomcat, mike55, ET I did not mean to offend any of you with regards to your feelings on Y2k. I am very prepared myself. I even bought some KI just in case. Need H2O filter and porto-potty and a little more food then I am done. Sorry to all.....CM Ray Patten (10/3/99; 11:30:48MDT - Msg ID:15271) Possible Comex bankruptcy. On Thursday, my commodity broker said that only market orders were allowed in the Gold options pit...no limit orders. I scaned my 38 years of commodity trading experience to try to remember a similar occurance, but I could not. I thought "These guys must be desperate." Then I looked at the numbers. As of Thursdays close, there were about 525,000 Gold calls outstanding. The floor traders or locals are the people who usually wright or sell us options. They have been getting our money for the last three years. As of September 21st, the committment of traders report said that the large traders were long only about 25,000 contracts. That means that the locals could be naked short over 400,000 calls. With an open interest of just over 200,000, where are they going to find the liquidity to get hedged. If Gold were to go up to $400 per ounce, their loss could be upwards of $4 billion. That could be enough to bring down the exchange.I've had the idea for a long time that if Gold was ever freed, it would go straight to about $475 without a decent thechnical correction. It now looks to me like it will be there before the end of this month. It's pay back time, but i'm not going to stay for the last tick. It may be that if the exchange closes, I may get nothing. ET (10/3/99; 11:19:51MDT - Msg ID:15270) AEL Hey AEL - you want me to explain it? Beats me! If I load the Netscape browser and attempt to load the forum it takes about 3 seconds. Now just testing from the desktop it took 2 seconds. Could be some overhead involved or different cache sizes, I'm not familiar enough with the system to know but maybe after a few weeks of learning how it functions I can tell you. The difference is insignificant at any rate.After having spent a number of hours over the last week playing with this thing I can see that in the future this might give Microsoft a run for their money even at the single user level. It's not quite there yet unless you have some background with these things and it lacks the application base that Windows has. It hasn't quit on me however and it's been up and running since last weekend. I've had problems with Windows dropping ISP connections and locking up requiring reboot (of course this always seemed to happen right before I hit the 'Post Message' button). <g> It has some rough edges yet but from a stability standpoint seems to be quite excellent. I've reviewed the list of applications that come with this version and from a cost/benefit basis it can't be beat. Fifty bucks buys an enormous amount of built-in's including two complete office setups, several development languages, graphics, games, multimedia, network/internet, and a host of nifty utility packages. Online documentation is adequate but I went ahead and bought the Que book ($40) anyway.Maybe we can get old Tomcat to test it for us and give us a real insiders view, eh? Thanks for the response.ET AEL (10/3/99; 10:40:10MDT - Msg ID:15269) linux -- ET ET (10/3/99; 9:42:39MDT - Msg ID:15266):"I can pull up USAGold forum in about 2.5 seconds as Ino longer use a browser such as Netscape"???I had understood this to be a bandwidth deal, not a matter of which (or whether) browser. The 50K or 100K (or whatever) worth of gold forum text comes thru the line at whatever speed it comes thru (28k, 56k, or DSL-speed, or T1-speed, or whatever); the browser cannot slow things down appreciably, I dont think (?). Explain. SteveH (10/3/99; 10:21:44MDT - Msg ID:15268) Canamami and emerson This is a July 1999 ruling and as such stands (for now). I would doubt an Appelate Court would rule against it or that the state would move it up the ladder as based on my reading, it was extremely well written with very sound logic. The state would take a chance of it holding precedence to a much wider range of cases or it possibly being picked up by the Supreme Court and I believe that they wouldn't risk that. My opinion. Leigh (10/3/99; 10:02:54MDT - Msg ID:15267) AEL Dear AEL: Would you mind either posting the whole article or printing a link for it? I'd like to read it. Thank you. ET (10/3/99; 9:42:39MDT - Msg ID:15266) Tomcat, Turbo, AEL, options traders Hey guys, how's it goin? TC - excellent piece! You're right, with all the gold excitement, etc., nobody is paying much attention to that big bear sneaking up behind them. More and more candid responses to readiness are making the news but they're being downplayed or reported on page D34. I heard the the Feds are going to try to improve readiness amongst the populace starting this month as they've been accused of downplaying the situation to the point of complacency. Apathy reigns. Maybe knocking a few thousand off the Dow would get people's attention, eh? Probably only wishful thinking on my part!Turbo - thanks for that bit about the National ID card. Good to see that at least some can see the freedom and liberty ramifications from that bit of bs. Now if we could just find some more reps like Ron Paul. At least we won't be stuck with a national id when we want to exchange our gold for Euros, eh?AEL - hey buddy, this is posted from the Linux platform. You gotta get it to believe it! I'm working on loading the Linux version of PGP today. I can pull up USAGold forum in about 2.5 seconds as I no longer use a browser such as Netscape because the desktop of KDE (the GUI interface) is a browser. The platform treats http files just like any other file and can be iconed to the desktop just like any other program or file. Pretty cool and very fast!Options traders - good luck you guys, I think you'll need it. I've been trading futures and options for a long time and as of the first of this year I stopped trading altogether. The reason for my pullback from these markets is liquidity. Last fall when everybody was loading up on the Dec 390 calls my broker buddy in Chicago called and we talked about the situation for a couple of hours. He is one of the principle's in a very large trading firm there. We have talked several times since. He says and I quote, 'People don't understand how thin some of these options markets are'. In other words, just because you have bought a put or call DOESN'T mean the guy on the other side of the trade has any money! Believe it! The only way you can get paid is if the markets trade within their normal volatility because that is how the options are priced initially. Once markets move outside this average window of volatility to any great degree, the market will cease to trade as some have found out this week. You have to remember, brokerage houses are going to try to protect their big clients (read - option writers (of course, this is where all the money has always been made in this racket)), before they try to help the little traders (read - you guys). Imagine this scenario - market moves against big trader big time, broker gets call, 'Hey Bob, I need a few days to cover that position, can you help me out?' 'Sure Ed, but I can't put the firm at risk, so instead of loaning you your margin maybe we can slow down the execution for a few days and hope that the Fed can intervene enough to slow down the move.' Now, you have to believe that this is exactly what is happening as traders and clearinghouses search for any liquidity they can find to keep from going belly up and closing the markets. If the clearinghouses can't or won't cover these trades the markets will not open the following morning. Believe it! In my opinion the greatest risk today is not the trade itself but the clearing of the trade. Remember, your profit is only someone elses loss if he has the money or can borrow it from someone else.This trading game is getting more like y2k everyday. This following bit of wisdom from an unknown author is appropriate, 'It's not the odds, it's the stakes'.ET mike55 (10/3/99; 9:40:18MDT - Msg ID:15265) Tomcat & The Last 10% Tomcat,We're in full agreement. The potential for an economic slowdown and related social problems have a fairly high probability IMHO. You and I had the discussion here several months ago regarding manufacturing systems, JIT, SPD, interconnectivity, etc. In the one of the major manufacturing businesses that are left in the US, last month's review on Y2K remediation at just one manufacturing plant gave me cause for concern. The report went something like this: "...381 programmable controllers replaced, 217 programs fixed, and 244 tools/machines with known problems that will not be corrected due to time, money, resources,etc. The date codes in these programs will be rolled back to a January 1999 date in December 1999, and we'll fix the problems in 2000. Still have xxx hundred machines to verify for compliance, which will be done by 9/30/99." This is only ONE component plant of dozens that supply many larger plants at only one manufacturer. These plants in turn deal with thousands of suppliers. If there's only 1% failure in the last 10%, there will be problems. I know the possible effect of this is hard to grasp if one doesn't work in a business sector or industry that is so reliant on interconnectivity and good data. As some naysayers have suggested, you might be able to go back to manual methods in some areas, but this would have the same effect as ******* in the wind. The time lost in material and cash flow alone in these tight systems will quickly cause the related economic slowdown. Then as sales slow, so does employment, and the cycle becomes self-fulfilling. We need to fix the problems, not go back to the pre-industrial days. To the manufacturer's credit, at one of dozens of plants, they will try a full plant date roll-forward sometime before the end of this year to see how the remediation to-date will work. They're working to prepare for the worst, and now hope for the best.Tomcat said it well, "Get your gold while you can but recognize that gold is not enough. Get prepared." AEL (10/3/99; 9:19:24MDT - Msg ID:15264) oil, food, Y2K Here's the first paragraph of a very interesting article by a friend of mine -- Terry Cottam, a Y2K activist in Canada. I can post the whole article if you all would like (do not want to spam the board with Y2K stuff). Terry is a tad hysterical, but only a small tad; the risks are very real; this article is nicely documented......-----------------------------------------------------------Date: Thu, 23 Sep 1999 11:34:09 -0400From: Terry Cottam <di238@freenet.carleton.ca>Subject: Oil Disruptions May Crash Markets In January 2000OIL DISRUPTIONS MAY CRASH MARKETS IN JANUARY 2000-------------------------------------------------By Terry Cottam, Ottawa, Canada, 23 Sep 1999 Revised, expanded from an article for Peace and Environment News,Oct 1999IN THIS ARTICLE: -- Markets could crash -- Long-term food shortages likely -- The "Lucy factor" -- Authorities fight efforts to prepare -- What's Next?OIL IS OFTEN OVERLOOKED in all the seemingly good news lately on Y2K.The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns "vulnerabilities still existat all levels of the oil supply chain." [1] A survey by Gartner Grouprevealed U.S. companies have "not been providing accurate disclosures"on their Y2K risks. The IEA says this could have "serious implications"for oil supplies. [2] Another oil industry observer expects "multipleembedded systems going down on each oil well" with no parts orreplacement systems available "for quite a long while." [3]........ AEL (10/3/99; 9:14:36MDT - Msg ID:15263) the last 10% I has been said, by those in programming, that 90% of large programming projects are 90% completed for about 90% of the time during which they exist. Tomcat (10/3/99; 8:10:54MDT - Msg ID:15262) The Y2k End Game and The Fallacy of The Last 10%. Canuck, said in #15243: "...the company I work for will miss Y2K targets by 10%. Time, money and resources have and will dictate the outcome, not Y2K itself. I fear 10% of other companies will miss targets by 10% and this is the essence of why Y2K will be what it will be."I agree with the statement above. In fact, they will be lucky of they only miss the deadline by 10%. I used to work in testing of large engineering systems. When we got to what looked like the last %10 percent on a project, only the old timers know that we were nowhere's near the last 10%. What happens is that there is a transistion near the end of projects that go from many isolated subsytems (that are being built) to the joining of these subsytems into a large system whose parts must work in harmony. Most of the employees are involved in the subsystem building and they indeed are at the 90% completion stage. Each subsystem manager sees only 10% left in his subsystem budget. They are the ones the set in the idea the the overall project has only 10% to go. Then the days of full system testing start and this is time of the wildcard. All sorts of things go wrong a this stage and it is not until the full up system is turned on and tested that you have any idea of how far along you entire system is. This "all up" full system testing is just beginning in many companies. They are just now getting a handle on where they stand. They are finding out that they are way behind.For many, tracking Y2k progress has become a bit of a bore. However, now is the time when all the important data is coming on line. Get re-involved. Read the data. They are finding that the most frequent form of errors are numerical errors that are transfered from one subsytem to another that won't cause a shut down but will cause an infection. If too many of these numerical infections spread there will be no way to stop the spread of the infections. Get re-involved. Read the data. You have your own castle to watch over so get on watch. Don't look back on these days and let it be said your castle went down on your watch.We are entering an era we will never forget.Get your gold while you can but recognize that gold is not enough. Get prepared. Cavan Man (10/3/99; 7:32:37MDT - Msg ID:15261) David Tice & FOA www.prudentbear.com In Friday's commentary, Mr. Tice speaks of the growing independence of the ECB vis a vis their gold pronouncement and, the likelihood of an increase in interest rates there. canamami (10/3/99; 6:53:30MDT - Msg ID:15260) Reply to SteveH _ #15429 SteveH,Thanx for the link to the Emerson case. Do you know if this was appealed to the Circuit Court of Appeals? I've devoted some of my spare time to developing an argument which would protect Canadians' right to own firearms, based on pre-Confederation and other statutes. At present, most of the provinces are taking part in an proceeding to strike down the federal government's new gun registration system, but I doubt they're invoking the arguments I would use, and given the biases' of the extreme liberal-leftist Supreme Court of Canada, the provinces will lose. (Being a government employee, I won't have the chance to make these arguments unless I go back into private practice). I used to be a rah-rah Canadian patriot, but I'm so demoralized by the actions of the SCC and the various governments that I would emigrate to the US if I were just a touch younger (could have trouble getting in now). The US has many of the same problems, but at least one can cut out and protect a private space for oneself in the US. Leigh (10/3/99; 6:20:07MDT - Msg ID:15259) Granny Dear Granny: If you're worried about your Gold Eagles arriving in a timely manner, perhaps you could call your dealer and ask him to substitute another coin, like Maple Leafs or something. It would be better than getting stuck with nothing if the market goes down!I'm not going to post much today because I'm sick, but I was lying in bed thinking about your Eagles and wanted to let you know that you can do this. That's what I'd do anyway. Peter Asher (10/03/99; 00:49:12MDT - Msg ID:15258) RossL The future you sell must be the one that your option CALLS.Confusion comes from the fact that in-between months on options are the right to buy the next months future, but expire a month earlier. This confusion is further compounded by the option carring the same monthly designation as its callable future, expires the month before. Example:: A Dec 300 gives you the right to buy the Dec future for $300, but only till the second Friday in NOVEMBER . The Nov 300 (In-between month) Gives you the right to buy that same Dec future, but only till the second Friday in OCTOBER. elevator guy (10/03/99; 00:42:15MDT - Msg ID:15257) More gold songs! Hopefully you know the tune to Guns and Roses "Sweet Child of Mine""Sweet gold of mine"Its got a shine, that it seems to me,Gives us a chance at prosperity,And by the grace of God,We'll enter a bright new day.Now and then, when I'm feeling down,I'll take out my stash, of golden crowns,And with the gains they've seen,It really blows me away.Chorus: Whoa, whoa, whoa, Sweet gold of mine,Whoa, whoa, whoa, Sweet gold of mineThey're serving bear steaks on the trading floor,While Goldamn Sachs, makes for the door,And the rapist shorts, They got no where to hide. Change will come, to our economy,When only real gold, is good currency,'Cause without Europes' banks,The dollar's on a downhill slide.Chorus: Whoa Whoa Whoa, Sweet gold of mine,Whoa Whoa Whoa, Sweet gold of mine. Another good candidate for revised lyrics would be Collective Soul's "Shine" Someone wanna take a stab at it? RossL (10/03/99; 00:12:05MDT - Msg ID:15256) Exercising options P.S. The future you short MUST be the sane month as your call option! RossL (10/03/99; 00:06:08MDT - Msg ID:15255) Exercising gold call options (revised) A quick refresher on the pros and cons of exercising your gold call options that are now in the money.Basic principles1. Managing time value is one of the keys to options trading.2. Determining the proper strike is one of the keys to options trading.3. Deep in the money options lose their time value.4. Exercising options erases the time value.5, If your time horizion is timing the markets to the minute, then you should be trading futures instead of options. An exercised option converts to a future at the open of the next trading day. Your best sale price may be had by shorting a future at today's peak price and giving your broker instructions to exercise the option during the same day.For example, lets say that spot is 310 on Monday. A June 2000 call at the strike price of 280 is deep in the money. Lets say I predict a continuing bull market in gold and I think gold will hit 350 by January and 400 by May.Determinations1. I need to calculate my return, based on my predictions, of holding the option until May.2. I need to calculate the current time value and intrinsic value of the option.3. I need to calculate my return, based on my predictions, of exercising that call for one futures contract.4. I need to calculate my return, based on my predictions, of selling that call and buying several out-of-the-money June 400 calls. The price of June 400 calls is pure time value and no intrinsic value.5. I need to consider the lack of customer service that now exists at the COMEX.Generally, options will be better off sold than exercised unless they are due to expire within the week. My opinion is that I would be better off selling the call right now and buying as many June 350's or 400's that I can with the proceeds.Check out some of these scenarios before you exercise that call! Leverage is able and waiting!Feel free to critique this analysis or add to it. Click Here to view yesterday's discussion.
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