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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 1/3/1999
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
redtail
(1/3/99; 21:59:36MDT - Msg ID:1626)
Blue Moons
Michael, not only are there two full moons in January, but there is NO full moon in February, then TWO MORE in March. That oughta be worth something in the Cosmic sheme of things!
USAGOLD
(1/3/99; 21:18:02MDT - Msg ID:1625)
Overherd....On dollar eating mice...
I got a kick out of that too though I wouldn't want to find myself in that unfortunate position. Better comfortable people than fat mice. Just completed the January N&V ....Unfortunately, not much humor in this issue. Perhaps its deep, gray winter setting in -- and an unremittingly bleak, January mood. The Denver Stock Show is starting and the weather is awful...the two usually go together. I'd make a run to the Colliseum to see what's happening with the ranchers (makes us city folk feel connected to the land and all that) but as poet/large animal veternarian Baxter Black said in the Denver Post the other day with great sensitivity: "Agriculture's in the toilet." So drooling cows and cute little lamb are not likely to have their usual cheering effect. (Though there's was one heck of a cowboy painting featured in the Denver Post this morning on display there.) Even ebullient Baxter sounds a little bleak these days....Think I'll find another way to elevate this blue mood in this month of the blue moon.... Don't know if you guys know about that: January will have two full moons this month -- the second is referred to as the "blue moon." The last time that happened was at the turn of the century -- hence the phrase "once in a blue moon -- as in "that happens once in a blue moon." They must be talking about the new currency.
Gandalf the White
(1/3/99; 20:56:10MDT - Msg ID:1624)
NIKKEI first session of the year DOWN sharply !
NIKKEI 225 Index opened down sharply and fell to the 13500 support level where it stayed most of the first session until near the end of the session when it broke the 13500 support level to close at 13415 down 426 on the session !
This is equal to a drop of 3.08% Looks as if the action is picking up !
<;-)
PH in LA
(1/3/99; 20:53:28MDT - Msg ID:1623)
Euro trading results as optimistically reported in Spain
http://www.elpais.es/p/d/19990104/economia/euro.htm
El euro ha iniciado con éxito su primera jornada en los mercados financieros mundiales. En Sydney, la plaza financiera que dio la bienvenida a la nueva moneda a las 19 horas de ayer en Espa--a, las cinco de la madrugada en Australia, la nueva divisa europea se revalorizaba frente a las otras dos grandes divisas mundiales, el d--lar estadounidense y el yen japonés. El euro cambi-- a 1,1747 por d--lar, con una ganancia del 0,68% respecto a la paridad oficial fijada por los Once ministros de Econom'a y Finanzas de la zona euro el pasado jueves, y a 133,200 frente al yen, lo que significa una revalorizaci--n del 0,301%. A la apertura oficial del mercado de Tokio, el euro se mostraba aún más fuerte y se cambiaba a 1,1754 frente al d--lar, según el Banco de Jap--n, lo que significa una ganancia del 0,74% respecto a la cotizaci--n fijada el pasado 31 de diciembre. El resultado final de la primera prueba, sin embargo, no se conocerá hoy hasta que cierren los mercados europeos, Londres y Nueva York.
The Euro started out with success on its first trading day in the worldwide financial markets. In Sydney, the first place to welcome the new currency at 7 PM yesterday Spanish time, at 5 AM in Australia, on the new European exchange the Euro settled higher against the two largest world currencies, the US Dollar and the Japanese yen. The Euro traded at 1.1747 to the dollar, which represents an increase of .68% over the same official price fixed by the eleven economic and finance ministers of the Euro zone last thursday and according to the Bank of Japan at 133.200 yen, which means a gain of .74% over the exchange fixed on 31 December. The final result of the first test (of the new currency) nevertheless, will not be known until the European, London and New York markets close.
OverHerd
(1/3/99; 19:56:17MDT - Msg ID:1622)
Euro and Y2K
The euro debut and the Y2K computer problem are similar in that we know when it will happen and what will
happen. The consequence of these events is the wild card. Considering the uero, will the monetary guidelines of
this new currency be maintained? Even countries that hold the euro in reserve will have to protect their own
currencies? If the US dollars held in reserve drops in value will this not lead to further selling? It seems that all the
things that make up the dollar's value are at their peak, I would think that there is nowhere to go but down. With
the myriad of problems revolving around a modern day currency, a person could wonder why we ever left the
original reserve currency (GOLD).On the subject of the Y2K computer problem I believe it will have an effect, to
what extent I do not know. I have been, for a year, and continue to prepare myself. I am even considering buying
a motor home as that would address the majority of my habitation concerns. The things I find most disturbing
about the Y2K problem is the lack of urgency on the part of most people and the fact that the people who
program and troubleshoot the computers are concerned with this issue.Since the emphasis is on repairing "mission
critical" applications I believe that there will be problems.I also did not consider the Y2A factor but thanks to ET's
post I am aware of that now.It seems I have more questions that answers, so the search continues.PS: MK, I had
to chuckle when I read about the money munching mice.Maybee Russia can use that the next time they meet with
the IMF.( the dog ate my homework excuse)
bmacd
(1/3/99; 19:44:05MDT - Msg ID:1621)
1999
Looking good so far!
USAGOLD
(1/3/99; 19:12:25MDT - Msg ID:1620)
More euro news.......
"Bank of Japan Governor Masaru Hayami said in an interview with business daily Nihon Keizai Shimbun last Friday that he expects the euro to become a 'strong key currency.' He was also quoted as saying that the yen's status may falter, making it necessary to make the yen easier to use."
Tokyo, Jan. 4 (Boomberg) -- The euro rose agaisnt the dollar in its first day of trade on optimism Europe's new single currency will rival the dollar as a reserve for central banks. .. "I expect the euro to be strong in the first half of this year," said Mikiyasu Yuasa, a foreign exchange manager at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi Ltd. "Economically and politically, Europe looks like the most stable region."
Japan is concerned about yen becoming a distant # 3.....
I've read a dozen articles on the euro today -- all similar to what you've just read above. Much has changed since the days when market analysts were telling us that the euro would never get off the ground. So how will the dollar measure up to the new competition? This could get interesting..............
SteveH
(1/3/99; 18:55:44MDT - Msg ID:1619)
Euro must be having a positive affect on gold...now
$290.00!!!
SteveH
(1/3/99; 17:45:12MDT - Msg ID:1618)
Feb gold now $289.60...
There you have it. The official start of the new year. Ok Euro, do your thing.
USAGOLD
(1/3/99; 17:24:54MDT - Msg ID:1617)
Euro up in Australia...
$1.1739 from $1.16675. +.61%
Japanese buying for reserves pushes up new currency, according to Bloomberg.
Gold opens up on Globex 40¢.
turbohawg
(1/3/99; 16:37:27MDT - Msg ID:1616)
random thought
In 1913, the Federal Reserve was created, at least in part, to facilitate the introduction of socialism into the largely capitalist US. In 1999, the EMU is created to facilitate the introduction of capitalist-style monetary reform into largely socialist Europe. Ironic isn't it ??
It appears we're about to see the collapse of the welfare state in America. Europe is apt to share the same fate ... the introduction of the euro is only an effort to treat the symptoms. The socialist governments offer no hope for fundamental capitalist reforms.
This period of change is good, as it promises to destroy the power structure of the puppetmasters and will likely usher in a new period of freedom and prosperity into world history. But getting from here to there is gonna be a bear (no pun). Waiting with anticipation ...
SteveH
(1/3/99; 16:29:02MDT - Msg ID:1615)
Ray
I have been getting lease info. from kitco. Look for Dabchick (I believe that is the spelling). He posts everyday, I think around 4:00, but am not for sure.
Steve
Ray Patten
(1/3/99; 14:38:03MDT - Msg ID:1614)
Steve H:
You have given us updates on Gold lease rates. I used to get them from Kitco but they haven't updated theirs for months. Can you tell us how to get them on the net?
Peter Asher
(1/3/99; 13:47:45MDT - Msg ID:1613)
Embarrasment
That poem was in the memory of our host's computer, author unknown. I removed it once and it popped up anyway. Start reading at "for most of December"
Peter Asher
(1/3/99; 13:36:02MDT - Msg ID:1612)
Oops
Borrowed computer
Peter Asher
(1/3/99; 13:33:55MDT - Msg ID:1611)
Fundamental "X"
Beautiful, you're beautiful, as beautiful as the sun
Wonderful, you're wonderful, as wonderful as they come
And I can't help but feel attached
To the feelings I can't even match
With my face pressed up to the glass, wanting you
Beautiful, you're beautiful, as beautiful as the sky
Wonderful, it's wonderful, to know that you're just like I
And I'm sure you know me well, as i'm sure you don't
But you just can't tell
Who you love and who you won't
And I love you, as you love me
So let the clouds roll by your face
We'll let the world spin on to another place
We'll climb the tallest tree above it all
To look down on you and me and them
And I'm sure you know me well, as i'm sure you don't
But you just can't tell, who you'll love and who you won't
Don't let your life wrap up around you
Don't forget to call, whenever
I'll be here just waiting for you
I'll be under your stars forever
Neither here nor there just right beside you
I'll be under the stairs forever
Neither here nor there just right beside you.Beautiful, you're beautiful, as beautiful as the sun
Wonderful, you're wonderful, as wonderful as they come
And I can't help but feel attached
To the feelings I can't even match
With my face pressed up to the glass, wanting you
Beautiful, you're beautiful, as beautiful as the sky
Wonderful, it's wonderful, to know that you're just like I
And I'm sure you know me well, as i'm sure you don't
But you just can't tell
Who you love and who you won't
And I love you, as you love me
So let the clouds roll by your face
We'll let the world spin on to another place
We'll climb the tallest tree above it all
To look down on you and me and them
And I'm sure you know me well, as i'm sure you don't
But you just can't tell, who you'll love and who you won't
For most of December there has been substantial consternation over the failure of the
Euro and its possible gold backing to raise the POG. Simultaneously, the ongoing Swiss
Referendum indicates that even a nation noted for fiscal conservatism, was considering
liquidating its gold assets to fund social programs. Aligned to this is the fact that the other
EU nations have extensive social costs requiring high taxation. It is not much of a
speculation to presume that the gold in their CBs is a tempting target.
The quantitative fundamental is that while gold earns no interest, if the holder of gold is
paying out interest on debt, than the reduction of that debt by the sale of that gold ,
creates "earnings" by divesting that holding.
Now, per "selling into strength", it can be seen that the increased demand created by the
impending Euro could create the opportunity for a CB to move out a large amount of
gold. The media could even have been "encouraged" to give exposure to the Euro, Chinas
intentions, gold backing etc. It could be that the "mission was not to denigrate gold to
assist the Cbs to buy it, but for the moment, to promote demand, for the CBs to be able to
sell it.
The trading action of the last few months would be more explicable in this theoretical
scenario. My belief is that when a traded instrument moves counter to both fundamental
and technical indicators, there is an unknown other fundamental activity going on. This is
the rational behind the old adage "The tape doesn't lie". Somewhere in the scheme of
things, an event is transpiring that is yet to be uncovered.
So, regarding next weeks trading, the Belgian cat is out of the bag and I predict that other
such events will lay low for a bit, to allow the POG to recover. However, as seeds of
doubt have been sown, I don't see that much recovery.
My estimated Friday close is $292.40
USAGOLD
(1/3/99; 09:29:17MDT - Msg ID:1610)
E-Day, 1999
"More than 30,000 people yesterday joined a street party on the lawn in front of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt to celebrate the launch of the euro and first economic union in Europe since the Roman Empire."
--- Financial Times 1/3/99
"...many analysts believe the euro will prove to be a strong currency and could even end the US dollars long standing dominance in the world's financial markets. The banking community is likely to purchase large quantities of euros in preference to currencies outside Euroland such as the pound sterling or even the dollar."
"...an Indian public-sector bank has already purchased 5m euros and several leading financial institutions in the City of London are believed to have been active in the euro market."
---BBC NEWS 1/3/99
"A recent analysis by the Merrill Lynch investment house cited estimates that investors could shift as much as $US1 trillion into euros, and central bank shifts might convert as much as $US300 billion, if the euro proves highly attractive...
Experts say that if the dollar were to lose some of its unique status, it - and the US economy - would become more vulnerable to the fierce tides of global financial markets. The US now is able to run huge trade deficits without risking investors fleeing the dollar. That is an enviable difference from the plight of emerging nations, whose currencies face ferocious speculative attacks when investors lose confidence in their economies. In 1997 and 1998 they had to push interest rates into the stratosphere to combat investor flight and retain foreign aid.
If an ascendant euro took away some of the dollar's unique standing, goes one point of view, the Federal Reserve would have to weigh the dollar's strength in making decisions about US interest rates - raising them to attract foreign investment, for example, if the dollar were deemed too low.
'We don't normally think about that at all,’ said Mr Kurt Karl, chief international economist at economic forecasters the WEFA Group in Philadelphia. In a world where the dollar is less in demand, "you can't borrow as easily on international markets" without offering high interest rates, added Mr Karl, who expects the euro to become an established, reserve currency along with the dollar, over the next decade. 'What it really comes down to is that money becomes more expensive.’
And, of course, a weaker dollar diminishes Americans' purchasing power by making imported goods more expensive. At the same time, it makes US products more competitive overseas - good for US jobs....
The biggest dollar impact, however, might come from Asia, where financial officials have made no secret of their wish to diversify foreign exchange holdings that long have been concentrated in dollars."
--- Jonathan Peters/Los Angeles Times
"Joseph Yam, chief executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the territory's de facto central bank, yesterday floated the notion of an Asian version of the euro, saying market unity would bolster the region against speculative attack...Asia has flirted with various intiatives, largely led by Japan, particularly since the regional crisis began in July last year."
--- Financial Times 12/31/99
"The markets previously thought a broader EMU meant a weaker euro but the sheer size of the euro zone means that the euro has much more potential to be a reserve currency than many think."
--- Avinash Persaud/J.P. Morgan
"Goldman Sachs, the U.S. investment bank, has chosen volatilities in euro/dollar foreign exhcnage options as one of its 'top 10 trades’ for 1999."
--- Financial Times 12/31/98
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Centennial Precious Metals Gold coins & bullion since 1973 Denver, Colorado 80246-0009 We educate first-time investors! |
for quotes and purchase information.
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