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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 12/31/2003 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Simply Me (12/31/03; 23:44:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 114436) @Waverider RE: Lease rates Just noticed that myself....but, thanks for the heads-up. Another one of the big 'K's chart glitches. Damn!~The paper/physical break isn't here yet. I've been watching for it since 1999. Oh well...someday.....I'll keep watching. Till then, there's good solace in 12 year old scotch and spending New Year's Eve with my family.Warm wishes for all,Simplythe golden granny Caradoc (12/31/03; 23:27:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 114435) Outlook for 2004 As the US dollar collapses, the year 2004 will begin with rollover of federal debt using shortterm bills:http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031231/economy_bills_announcement_1.htmlBusiness as usual in a world where not everyone wishes us well:http://www.khayma.com/iraqihell/1.wmvWhatever the validity of such threats, the government takes them seriously enough to have snipers on rooftops for the Times Square New Years Eve celebration and armed forces on the ground and in the sky:http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/images/30dec03-nypd-timessquare1.jpghttp://www.homelandsecurityus.com/images/1582715_SH.jpgAnd even without such threats, the ongoing economic considerations discussed on this forum indicate that holding physical gold is a wise move for 2004 and beyond.Regards to all,Caradoc Druid (12/31/03; 23:10:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 114434) Happy New Year All I would like to thank each of you caring and giving individuals for your many fine intellectual contributions to this forum. While we may not always agree, I thank each of you for your perspectives because they always expand mine. This last year of "thoughts" has been incredible and continues to be the best reality based reporting concerning all markets, but primarily the gold market, that can be found anywhere, and I do mean anywhere! From an economic and political point of view each of us knows down deep that we are approaching an inflection point in time where our lives are going to be changed in some form or fashion. I'm an eternal optimist who hope's for the best but am trying like heck to live up to part of BB's credo of "preparing for the worse." It is with this optimism that I know that some of our country's best and brightest who reside here at the castle will emerge as future leaders and do what's right for all of us as best as humanly possible. I can honestly see the day where MK's and many others names here at the castle are part of the mainstream business lexicon as they champion the virtues of "honest and sound money." As the battle for the "thoughts" of many unfolds, I will raise my sword and shield to fight for you, as this will be a difficult battle. MK, a splendid job Sir.I raise my goblet to each of you and wish you all good health and a happy New Year! ski (12/31/03; 22:47:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 114433) Gold in 2004 (or other pm's)?? Perhaps a sequel to "Lord of the Rings"???This time, instead of trying to DESTROY a gold ring, the Hobbits must BUILD a silver ring!Their quest for some silver will take them:1. To a host of mom n' pop coin shops ... "WE KNOW OF SILVER AND WE CAN MOST ASSUREDLY ORDER IT FOR YOU ... BUT THE DELIVERY ... THAT, OF COURSE, WILL BE THE DIFFICULT PART." ... But, no silver is to be delivered, no orders filled.2. To the household of Mr. J.Q. Public ... "I HAVE HEARD OF SILVER OFTEN. THERE CERTAINLY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A SINGLE SILVER RING SOMEWHERE ABOUT. UNDER THIS STACK OF BILLS NO DOUBT." ... But he has no silver for the ring.3. To the halls of the all powerful, military empire of the world ... the U.S. Government ... "FOR MANY, MANY A YEAR, WE HAD WAREHOUSES STACKED TO THE CEILING WITH THE WHITE SHINNY." ... but not a tace of the white precious was to be located among the hammering printing presses.4. To the greatest silver trading center in the world where millions of ounces of silver are bought and sold each and every day ... the COMEX ... "COME BACK TOMORROW AND TOMORROW AND TOMORROW ... WE HAVE TONS TO SPARE ... BUT FOR SOME REASON, THE CUPBOARD SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE BARE TODAY." ... again and again ... over and over ... not enough for a single silver ring! Waverider (12/31/03; 22:02:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 114432) Sir Goldilox Very clever (((^O^)))Have you another source for lease rates? I had two sources bookmarked on my other computer that crashed and burned...or Sir Rich...I don't see the link here...TIA! Cheers! a nation of one (12/31/03; 22:00:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 114431) To R Powell (12/30/03; 15:47:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 114343) I am of the darkness. (This is not a joke.) When I encounter convention, it appears to me differently from the way it appears to people well-versed in markets.In all areas of my life I tend to do things which other people sometimes think are extremely unusual.I used to fight this tendency and tried to destroy it.While I was in the most intense aspect of this attempt, I learned that it is the essence of my nature.Carefully and unremittingly, therefore, I cultivate it.As it increases, it emerges as that which I most genuinely believe.One result has been that I like for my actions to be simple. As to how this effects my interest in gold, I have a number of contracts, which I hold onto while pog goes up. As long as I think it will continue to go up, I will do what is necessary to hold onto them. I don't engage in wise or learned conventional market practices. I am only intending to maximize the effect that pog's rise will have on my wealth, according to what I know and can see. I am a man with a self-generated idea, acting on that idea. So far it is working. I don't strive to understand the complex details of markets, any more than a carpenter tries to see the atoms in a piece of wood. I know my tools. And I know only a few other things: the dollar has been falling; more fiat money is being created; these things spell trouble; I have some dollars that I can put somewhere; I can see somewhere to put them: gold is going up. There is more to it than that, but not much.I suspect that Karl von Clauswitz's observation may have been generally correct, that, "Given the same amount of intelligence, timidity will do a thousand times more damage than audacity."Life is war. I have a good military mind. These things I understand. Therefore I do them. Druid (12/31/03; 21:30:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 114430) Belgian (12/31/03; 06:32:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 114385) @Druid "The Gold Trail link (A/FOA) you posted...Could Libya soon become *another* privileged oil-reserve-state, qualifying for Gold-inflow for oil-outflow ?"Druid: Sir Belgian, you know, this thing "economic" in its earliest and crudest form had more to do with total and complete confiscation then anything else. I took what you perceived was yours. Then we moved on or did we? Now you ask, if ANOTHER world leader sitting on black gold is fortunate enough to be holding the latest winning "lotto" ticket whereby we (USA) might deem him "privileged" enough to engage in some sort of "mutual" exchange. My favorite Shaman (Econ. Prof.) would always ask; What governs what? Do markets govern politics or do politics govern markets? His answer was as crystal clear as you could get. It depends. At what point in time in history are you analyzing? The way I am reading the tea leaves at this point in time POLITICAL WILL is primary and markets are secondary. Have a wonderful New Years friend. Goldilox (12/31/03; 21:22:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 114429) Grinches, Glitches, and Glistens To all the Knights and Fair Ladies-Heed not the Grinches who would try to steal your gold. They know the weak will submit, but the strong will prevail.Believe not every datum you encounter, as Glitches occur often. Double check your sources, as they all publish disclaimers to warn of their fallibility.Seek not every glitter thus presented, as the Bard spake:"All that Glistens is not Gold!"Live well and prosper!(:> Sir Goldilox Paper Avalanche (12/31/03; 20:56:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 114428) Happy New Year My thanks to all posters for a year's worth of education that could not be obtained anywhere else. My special thanks to MK and CPM for this terrific forum and educational resource that has changed the way I view life. Mike, you are making a bigger difference in the world than you could ever imagine. Future historians will write books some day about the financial turmoil that lies ahead of us and there will be many, many references to this forum. We are living and making history during "interesting times."Take care and have a bountiful 2004.Paper Avalanche R Powell (12/31/03; 20:36:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 114427) Rates: LIBOR - GOFO Ladies, I too noticed the rate increase but the numbers from the LBMA. do not confirm K's numbers. Below are the one, two, three, six and twelve month numbers from our own link to the LBMA for gold. Who knows which are right? Maybe we just wait a day or two to see. Happy + Safe New Year to All. 0.021% 0.043% 0.066% 0.142% 0.338% Waverider (12/31/03; 20:07:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 114426) To All... I wish everyone here a healthy and prosperous New Year for 2004. Thank you one and all for your thoughts, dialogue, and contributions - each and every thread partakes in the Golden tapestry engraved upon the forum archive pages. All the best to each and every one of you.Simply ~ I noticed the lease rates too this morning. Then upon second glance I noticed that the rates are the same across the board which makes me think it may be a computer glitch...I'm not sure but it seemed suspicious. Cheers!Waverider specie-man (12/31/03; 20:06:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 114425) New Year's Resolutions- part 2 And here is one more thought to help you quit:Do you want some fat-cat lyin' tobacco executive to go laughing all the way to the bank with YOUR money, or would you rather be stuffing your pockets with silver dollars and gold ?I can't think of any stronger incentive than that ! Waverider (12/31/03; 20:02:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 114424) New Year's Haiku for Sir MK Warriors - eat, drink.As Golden Eve melts to DawnVictory is born. specie-man (12/31/03; 19:58:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 114423) Pizz - New Years' Resolutions Good luck with your resolution #1.I've NEVER bought a pack (thankfully !), so I don't know what they cost. Isn't it well over $2 ?Think of it this way -Every three packs or so and one genuine USA Morgan/Peace *silver* dollar goes up in smoke !In other words, just think where else you could be putting your money :) Simply Me (12/31/03; 19:55:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 114422) A joyous 2004 to all! My gold forecast for 2004: Tremendous early gains followed by a pull back and consolidation, at which time CNBC et al. will declare the gold bull dead. Then, after a lot of weak hands have been relieved of their heavy gold burden, a bigger and better gold bull break out. Gold $600/oz by year end.Any body know if our sister site's charts are up to their old screw ups again?Take a look at the current gold lease rates as quoted on the big "k".Gold lease rates:1 mo....1.12 (Change +1.1)2 mo....1.13 (Change +1.09)3 mo....1.15 (Change +1.09)6 mo....1.22 (Change +1.10)1 yr...... 1.46 (Change +1.10)If these rates are true, then the fuse has been lit on a big golden rocket!Silver and palladium lease rates took a big jump too. Only platinum rates were down.A golden new year to all!Simply Cavan Man (12/31/03; 19:53:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 114421) Let the reader understand. Truer words have not been spoken. "The Wild card in all of this for the public, is maintaining some semblance of purchasing power going forward. The Stock Market will not do this, so please do not try. Most serious investors don't only hedge their currency risk, but they hedge the hedge of their currency risk to actually stay ahead of the game(another story). It is becoming apparent that some diversification into the precious metals is needed, just to stay even."The Coin GuyMany thanks for your contributions. specie-man (12/31/03; 19:49:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 114420) Sign Posts along the "Trail" Hello CoinGuy,I think you might be referring to my "Gold Price Countdown" post (also known as "The Fall Of 2005"). If not, then sorry for the lengthy re-post !The next key sign along the Trail will be when inflation rises to uncomfortable levels in Asian countries that are currently buying large quantities of US debt. China is approaching those inflation levels but Japan is holding things up right now. So when Japan "breaks" and is forced to stop dumping Yen for Dollars, look out !Here is the entire post:Gold Price Countdown - the Fall of 2005 A Speculation By "specie-man" - 10 November, 2003In 1997, a mysterious individual began a series of anonymous postings on gold-related internet bulletin boards. This person, and their associate, seemed to have inside knowledge of world gold dealings. The information they relayed indicated, in a somewhat cryptic way, that there were two completely different gold markets in existence.One of those markets is the paper gold market that we all see (COMEX) - a market who's hidden purpose is to suppress the price of gold and to generally manipulate the market in favor of commercial (short) entities, at the expense of speculative (long) entities.The other hidden market was larger, and traded in physical gold only - at prices far higher than the paper gold market. As the theory goes, this market was the vehicle for transferring large quantities of gold to rich oil-producing countries. This arrangement was secretly agreed upon by banks and governments, so that in return, the price of oil (as measured in US dollars) would remain stable even during the economic boom years of the late 1990s. This was at the core of the so-called "strong dollar policy", which the US Government frequently mentions but never seems to be able to explain.The two markets worked together such that the paper gold market would effectively siphon off world gold supply and production at reduced prices, and deliver it to the secondary "hidden" market at a profit. Why would the large buyers acquire gold on this hidden market, rather than buying contracts for future delivery for lower prices in the paper market ? Because it would have been impossible to purchase the desired quantities of physical metal on the limited paper market, and any attempt to do so would send the price of gold much higher on both markets, possibly destroying the paper market and ending the price suppression of gold. This would cut off their supply of relatively cheap gold. Perhaps the intentions of these major buyers are to first obtain large quantities of gold, and then go to the paper market to drive up the price. The individuals responsible for bringing this information to light predicted that at some point, the world price of gold would be revised sharply higher (by orders of magnitude) in conjunction with a move by oil-producing nations to officially reduce their intake of US dollars and increase their intake of other currencies and gold. This monstrous gold price increase would signal the beginning of a new world order. That prediction was made around 1998, possibly to occur in the 1998-1999 time frame.These individuals correctly predicted a badly-faltering stock market and economic malaise. But now, four years later, their predictions about a rapid gold re-pricing event have not taken place. Gold has increased in price significantly in the last four years, but the rise has been relatively gradual. Gold bugs are still waiting for that big event. Will it come and, if so, when ?Before any major gold price upheaval (increase) can occur, certain conditions must first exist. Some have already occurred, and others are developing. Watching the progress of these conditions will be like watching a rocket launch count-down ! Those who are watching will know when their last chance will be to jump on board before lift off. Here is the count-down as towards an explosion in the price of gold (as a result of a crashing US Dollar):12. Rapid expansion of world-wide credit (debt).11. Stock market declines.10. US government, state/local governments, corporations, and households go much deeper in debt.9. US trade deficit expands relentlessly.8. The US dollar starts declining in value relative to other world currencies.7. Long-term interest rates increase relative to short-term interest rates, bond market declines.6. Housing prices level-off and start declining in some areas.5. Other (Asian) countries counter the falling US dollar by working to devalue their own currencies.4. Gold starts rising in price relative to all major world currencies, including the Swiss Franc.<===== WE ARE HERE !3.Inflation/stagflation starts taking hold in Japan, China, and other countries that have a large trade surplus with the US. Bad debts are monetized en-masse (paid off by "printing" large quantities of the local currencies). This is highly inflationary. To forestall hyper-inflation, Asian central banks will be forced to cash in some of their dollar reserves to bail out large debtors (commercial banks, etc.). This will bring an end to the "strong dollar" policies of those governments. Japan, for example, will no longer print and dump as much Yen on the market and buy dollars to weaken the Yen relative to the Dollar.2.Consumption in foreign (especially Asian) economies starts growing more rapidly and oil-producing nations realize that they will no longer have to rely as much on the US market to sell their oil. At that point they won't have to worry about how much oil the US consumes (or how much a barrel of oil costs in US dollars). Due to the world-wide glut of declining-value US dollars, and a revulsion for US foreign policies, some oil-producing nations begin switching their official oil pricing currency from US dollars to another currency and/or gold.1.The paper gold market (COMEX) shows a large increase in speculative long positions. The long speculators have been trounced many times over the years by the commercial (short) traders. This time, however, the ranks of the long speculators will grow and grow. They will hold firm in the face of the commercial shorting onslaught, as if being commanded by General Stonewall Jackson himself. The commercial shorts will break and run as people world-wide attempt to take delivery of gold. Some major financial institutions will fail as a result.0. Blast-Off !Foreign countries no longer have a need for the excessive amounts of US dollar assets (US Treasury bonds) that they hold because it becomes increasingly difficult to purchase oil (and/or gold) with them. Foreign governments do not buy and hold US Treasury bonds out of the goodness of their hearts. The second that they no longer have the need or ability to hold and acquire those assets, or the instant they perceive that their ability to exchange them for something useful is diminishing, they will dump them for something else. A world-wide "crash" in the US dollar will result, leading to a world-wide revulsion of anything and everything US dollar, much higher US interest rates, a severe case of hyper-"stagflation", and higher prices for all tangible assets. The derivative pyramid will crumble. The US dollar will become the "laughing stock" of world currencies - akin to some of the weak currencies of the Central American and South American regions. All this occurs just as the first wave of American "baby doomers" are scheduled to retire. Life will go on in the US and it won't be all bad, but it will be very different and difficult.Right now, the countdown is at 3 and counting. Many of these events have been (and will be) occurring concurrently. What is still lacking is significant world-wide wage inflation (but world-wide commodity prices are now escalating). When you hear the phrase "wages are increasing to keep up with inflation", you will know that the time is very close. Current indications are that the final prerequisites for a blast-off in the gold price are forming. Hints of inflation in Japan, commodities, and elsewhere are starting to appear, as is talk about doing something about the bad debts in Japan, and bad debts rapidly increasing in China. The US Federal Reserve will aggressively fight any significant downturns in real estate prices. They will do anything, even drop cash from helicopters, to prevent consumers from defaulting on their mortgages en masse. The alternative is just to catastrophic.The COMEX open interest in gold is now increasing. Battles between the commercials (short) and the speculators (long) have usually ended in favor of the commercial traders. This time, it will end in a stalemate - a moral victory for the longs. The day when the longs totally rout the commercial shorts is coming fairly soon.History is riddled with unfulfilled predictions of gold's price soaring (and collapsing). Gold is heating up now. But realistically, how long might it be before the price explodes rapidly upwards in an economic upheaval of epic proportions ? That is hard to say. The old saying definitely applies here: "markets always do WHAT they are supposed to, but never WHEN they are supposed to". Such drastic economic realignments are always fought against by governments, and they always take longer than expected.Should all the current COMEX longs hold firm and a quantity of them demand physical delivery, then the countdown could go to blast-off immediately. Other "wild-card" events (war, terrorist attack, major California earthquake, etc.) could ignite the rocket as well. The countdown process started in the mid 1990s and it should last about ten years. The closer the countdown gets to zero, the faster it will tick. Gold will continue to increase in price during the remainder of the countdown. ! Lacking any unexpected triggers, the countdown will finish during the Fall of 2005. Druid (12/31/03; 19:48:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 114419) Operative (12/30/03; 22:06:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 114362) @ Druid Re: Lybia "I wonder if the Lybian leader is a better reader of the "writings on the wall" than Saddam was? Is this recent turn of events showing a two prong effort on the USA's part? The arab world is divided in many avenues. It would be an error to think otherwise. History has shown this to be true. Arab nation vs arab nation. Most arab nations have major conflicts amongst even their own populataions. Has the US declared "war" on the most radical arab countries, and at the same time offered an olive leaf to the one's willing to negoiate thier future?"Druid: Operative, you are absolutely correct in what you stated above about the arab world being divided. It would would appear that our recent military actions might be the common denominator that brings them together to our detriment. Let's see how the "olive" leaf towards Lybia works out. The CoinGuy (12/31/03; 19:05:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 114418) MK,, Appreciate the Reply(ies)... Hanta Yo...to the Physical yellow metal in 2004. "The newsletter writers", as Sinclair is calling this group who had turned bearish in the $390's, will probably get scared at $450. My official call for 2004 is $565-70, technically and fundamentally I believe we are headed there post haste. If my arm was twisted, I would also state, two periods of consolidation will be involved in this process. I never, and I MEAN NEVER, thought I would say this, "buy the dip".Perhaps we are headed to another bend on the Gold Trail in regards to FOA's scenario. As you have commented on the dollar, it has been on my mind alot lately. The dollar decline is becoming quite interesting. The Relentless decline is getting some notice, a bounce might be in order for a good scare to the Dollar shorts who are leaning strongly to one side of the boat, but I'd have to say FOA has/d made a good call. Although, the oil call is the ace in the hole, and I'm betting he is holding a Royal Flush by the time this hand is played out.The Wild card in all of this for the public, is maintaining some semblance of purchasing power going forward. The Stock Market will not do this, so please do not try. Most serious investors don't only hedge their currency risk, but they hedge the hedge of their currency risk to actually stay ahead of the game(another story). It is becoming apparent that some diversification into the precious metals is needed, just to stay even.I'm looking forward to gold rising in all currencies as we go forward. I am in firm resolution to my convictions, as well as my own study of Geo-Politics that I believe we are indeed on the right Trail, so to speak. I recall someone, and I do apologize for forgetting who, posted a list of signs to watch as we move along this trail. Perhaps, this could be "re-posted", I glanced at it when posted and felt it was a fair representation. Whoever did the work, did some homework as well.I understand it is hard to stay on the Trail when the Trail Guide himself is lost, MK ought to get a search party together and find him. Although, if he is never to be found, I believe enough was said, afterall as FOA quipped the story was never about him.I'm heading back into my lair, but I sincerely wish the best for all at USAGOLD for 2004.The CoinGuy2004: War, Gold, Oil and the Dollar. Buongiorno! (12/31/03; 18:42:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 114417) 2003 'item' of the year Gentlepersons, may I respectfuly suggest that there is a difference between Barrick announcing the 'end of hedging as we know it' and Newmont actually covering 10-12MM oz au--somehow, during this last year? Both are significant, but one represents deeds done, while the other represents things to come?I know, a small detail, but (aw shucks) just had to point it out. To all, HAPPY NEW YEAR! "Buon Finalmente, Buon Principio, 'e Buon Anno Nuovo!"Andrea Bocelli is singing for me, my bride awaits an evening of dancing....life is good!Chin-chin--tingBUONGIORNO! TownCrier (12/31/03; 18:15:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 114416) There he is, Spot, ringing in the new year... gads, Mike. http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.html Seriously. That's (almost) criminal.(Just only as long as everyone knows I had no part in it.)No haikus this time, just this: My very best wishes to ALL -- for a New Year filled with inspiration for shaping what lies ahead, and for comprehension of all that unfolds.Randy CoBra(too) (12/31/03; 18:11:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 114415) On the Other Side of Midnight - for almost 2 hours already into 2004.I would like to take the opportunity to wish all of you a great and golden new year. Mike has expressed it nicely in one of his recent posts - 2004, the year of gold's victory. Thanks to all of you and especially to MK and his brilliant team ... and also special thanks to BB for his excellent efforts - cb2, who loves you all ... MK (12/31/03; 18:02:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 114414) Black Blade, Randy, All: The dollar carry trade/What goes around, comes around http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/031231/markets_forex_carry_1.html For years we emphasized that the gold carry trade was the primary drag on the gold price, because through leverage it worked to flood the market with paper gold. Now, stories like the one linked above are beginning to emerge about the 'dollar carry trade' -- a trading opportunity, no doubt, that the hedge funds are very happy to find gift-wrapped and waiting for them on the financial table. The new 'trade' is accelerating the upward movement in the euro no doubt and playing a role in the gold price. One of the more interesting aspects of the carry trade situation, whichever financial instrument is targeted, is the fact that off-shore hedge funds are able to magnify the movement in currency markets far beyond what would occur without the leverage and carry trade locked-in profits. When gold was targeted and Alan Greenspan was pressed on regulating the hedge funds in this respect during Congressional testimony, he begged off saying that the free market should be allowed to be the free market. Now, with the dollar under attack, and people like Soros and Buffett publicly admitting to speculation with massive capital against the dollar, one wonders what the response of the authorities -- particularly the U.S. Treasury and the US Federal Reserve Bank -- might be. The article above implies that the Fed, for one, might be on gold for the entirety of 2004 (an election year). The trashing of the dollar, it would seem at least on the surface, is policy, except of course in Japan.Most of us recall Soros' successful speculation against the British pound, and the impotence of both the British government and the Bank of England in terms of effective reponse to defend the currency. Now the dollar -- the world's reserve currency -- has been targeted. With Japan, a trash currency (as BB points out in his report today) on par with wampum and seashells (I believe is how he put it), there aren't many alternatives out there for this high-velocity, highly leveraged money to make these carry trades worked.I think we may be surprised in the coming year what happens in the gold market. The same leverage that was a blessing for the dollar and bond market in the 1990s may become a curse in the 'oughts' with gold the ultimate beneficiary. Pizz (12/31/03; 17:06:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 114412) Year End As we enter a new year, keep in mind that for all short term, practical aspirations, we gold advocates have had a pretty good year. In fact, a good couple of years, and will more than likely have a good decade relatively speaking.My greatest concern over the next few years is not problems with stocks, bonds, interest rates, trade deficits, budget deficits, debt levels, reserve currencies, derivatives, real estate values, accounting irregularities, resource depletion, global warming, mad cows, SARS, or any of the other myriad of imbalances that have, are, or will occur (We've had a bunch, though haven't we?). Most have all been problems before, have been solved one way or another, and will be again, and again.My greatest concern is the relatively rampant influx of technology into the world and our ability as humans, to be able to deal with these problems psychologically, intelligently, and emotionally.Computers and our information technology have managed to take the business, economic, and social cycles and compress them into immediate awareness. Patience has never been one of my better traits, and I'm far from being alone. Now keep this thought, multiply it a few hundred million times, factor in the Internet and instantaneous monetary reactions to virtually all information available, and you have a macro situation that we, as mere mortals are about as apt to win without SEVERE pain, as a high school football team in the Super Bowl.In the past (prior to 1992 or so), we've had both the time and capital resources to handle economic problems. Oil embargos, dollar devaluations, stock market corrections, etc., etc. have all been weathered, but with time and some pain. Now, when a problem appears, we demand instant solutions, and use up capital that DID NOT just instantly appear. Immediate gratification has caused knee-jerk reactions and politically expedient misallocations of capital, that in times past would have been solved or at least mitigated with the resources at hand, whether social or monetary capital. Is it surprising that the government has had to finally go to the instantaneous creation of capital (printing) to try to keep up?Between the government and citizens of this country, we have used up nearly every nickel of our savings, our home equity, our Social Security funds, borrowed on the future, sold into the future, and are now holding our debt over the heads of other countries. Japan is playing the bungee cord for the dollar. The Euro block will be next as the pain from a too strong of a currency will be too much politically. China will play, but within their own rules and Taiwan will be the spoils. Russia scares me right now, since they've already bottomed, survived, and while we are about to have our own little "awakening".Will the playing field worldwide be able to be leveled to some sort of equilibrium that allows for some type of "living" as we (used to) know it? I have my doubts. Too many people, too few resources, too much greed, and without enough pieces of the pie to go around no matter how thin it's cut. When in doubt, most hedge their bets, and when too many hedge, the hedges have a tendency to be the problem. Derivatives may be a good example, and we'll probably find out first hand.What will history say as to what should have been the warning to all that both the Fourth Turning and the Kondratieff Winter could not be both socially and economically defeated? In my humble opinion, it will be the hedge that our government has created under the guise of . Namely Patriot I, II, and Homeland Security. Keep the presses running, pull out every stop necessary for as long as you can, until. . . . .. I personally think the government has given up on economic solutions. None that will work are politically acceptable (like a gold standard – and it could be done). As in life, business, or government, we the people demand that the problems be fixed, but the fix cannot include anything that affects US in a negative way. Fix it but don't change a damn thing that affects my available time or living standard except to have both go up . . .now just how many times have I been in that situation in my career. . . . . quite a few, and you know, it can't be done.Gold in 2004? The anti-gold crowd will be trying to convince us that we're going to have the mother of all double tops at about 850.Silver in 2004? Going to surprise everyone, and live Rhode Island Reds will become an endangered species as all try to figure out "why".To all, may 2004 be as good or better than 2003. P.S. My resolutions for the year are as follows, in the order of, (and if I failed last year, it goes to the top for this year)1. Quit smoking (been number 1 for a while)2. Be not a borrower or lender (debt free totally by end of 2004)3. Double my physical gold.4. Triple my physical silver.5. Learn how to beat both 2 and 3 into plowshares, bullets, fishing lures, or anything else required in case SHTF.Pizz MK (12/31/03; 16:47:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 114411) Add on to Coin Guy post CG. . .When I posted my reaction to the Barrick story, I ended with the inscription "hanta yo"Hanta yo in the Lakota Sioux dialect translates to "Clear the way!"The Barrick reversal clears the way. MK (12/31/03; 16:42:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 114410) Yes, Coin Guy. . . I see Barrick as the number one gold story for 2003. Right behind it, the devaluation of the dollar. And third the 20%+ rise in the price as the third top story.Happy New Year, CG! MK (12/31/03; 16:39:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 114409) C-Man Happy New Year, C-Man. I appreciate your presence here and friendship. Blessings and Happiness for 2004!No, I see a victory -- victorious battle -- not in the sense of an ultimate victory. The coronation -- ultimate victory -- may come down the road. There is much ahead of us between here and there. As this financial/economic drama unfolds over the coming year, we -- all of us -- will reinvent this forum and website continuously and again as a personal, vital 'tool for the modern era.' Cavan Man (12/31/03; 16:25:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 114408) Hi Mike.... Could be "Return of the King"? I like the ring :>). Happy New Year...God bless all here....CM The CoinGuy (12/31/03; 16:21:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 114407) Barricks Reversal on hedging... MK,The icing on my cake will always be "Barrick's 48hr Reversal".Classic,The (PHYSICAL) CoinGuyP.S. A HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL POSTERS!!! MK (12/31/03; 15:39:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 114406) New Years Message Last year on New Year's Eve I said that if 2002 was the year of gold's return (it was up 24% on the year), then 2003 would be the year of gold's revenge (gold was up 20% on the year). The epitome of that revenge, need I say it, was Barrick's renunciation of hedging and promise to essentially put its book to rest. Gold's revenge was also illustrated by the steady drop in LBMA volumes -- which (those of you who have read my writings over the years already know) represents the paper portion of the gold carry trade in all its manifestations. You will continue to see the banking portion of the gold business shrink in size as the physical business continues to expand on a global basis. So how do I characterize 2004? I'll put it in a nutshell: If 2002 was the year of 'gold's return' and 2003 the year of 'gold's revenge'. Then 2004 will go down as the year of 'gold's victory -- the ascent to its rightful place atop the world of financial assets '. And that will not be the end of it. It will be just the beginning.MK2004To all our greatly appreciated posters who have kept us informed, kept us thinking, kept us in the game through good times and bad, I invite you to post your thoughts and feelings for 'Gold 2004' over the next few days. I think many of us would like to hear from our favorite posters on this subject. Now is a good time to get it on the board. I just thought I'd lead the way. Mr Gresham (12/31/03; 15:04:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 114404) Operative I say "ditto" to your last two posts. New Year's greetings, and a hero's reward. They are both in full keeping with what our fine company shares here each day.And the same greetings to our neighbors, some of whom do stop by to check our thoughts here. You may be like me; I have foregone registering to post at other fine castles, for, my time must be apportioned sparingly, and, I fear I would grow confused if my thoughts were to mingle in the discussions at more than one castle. (I can barely keep up here, to do justice to the efforts you put in.)Know that I read you with much appreciation, and I hope you know how deserved your increased wealth has been this year. Among all who hold real wealth, I know you will use it most wisely. Goldilox (12/31/03; 14:05:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 114403) Failed Manipulation @ Gandalfperhaps the manipulators were too busy helping NASDOG finish 2003 at 2003.xx!! TownCrier (12/31/03; 13:42:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 114402) Eurosystem reserve revaluations On this, the day of the Eursystem's quarterly mark-to-market revaluation of Int'l reserves, the bottom line is that paper has suffered while gold has held firm since the last revaluation on Sept. 30th.Holdings of yen have fallen in unit value from ¥128.8/€ to approx 135 yen per euro.Holdings of dollars have fallen in unit value from $1.16/€ to approx 1.26 dollars per euro.Holdings of Special Drawing Rights have fallen in value from EUR 1.225 to approx EUR 1.18 per each.Holdings of gold, however, have nudged higher, from EUR 329.986 to approx EUR 331 per ounce.The final, official revaluation numbers should be available next Wednesday.R. Operative (12/31/03; 13:26:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 114401) Reflections of Time Past http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/31200212/default.html In reflecting back on this years trek along golden trail, you may wish to start at the beginning, December 31, 2002.Wishing All a Happy New Year, and Blessings For 2004.* Safe trip to Jon W on his homeward bound journey.* Special thanks to MK and staff, for providing this cyber castle where the heart can be warmed, and thoughts engaged.* Offered to each poster is a heartfelt Thank You, for all that is shared within these silver guilded pages with golden thread weaved as binding. I never knew, I knew so little. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (12/31/03; 12:55:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 114400) Real gold, real easy. Delivered to your door. http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html
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