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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/31/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Black Blade (08/31/02; 23:23:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 84091)
OPEC Majority Said to Oppose Quota Boost
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020831/energy_venezuela_opec_1.html


Snippit:

CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said Saturday his country firmly opposed increasing OPEC oil output quotas, and he added the majority of the oil cartel's other members shared this view. Oil traders have been receiving mixed signals about whether the Organization of Oil Exporting Countries will increase production at its Sept. 19 meeting in Osaka, Japan. "The information that I have up to now is that the majority of (OPEC members) agree to maintain current production levels, including Saudi Arabia," Chavez told foreign reporters at a news conference. "That is the opinion of the majority and our own opinion on the matter is very firm," he said, speaking before flying out of Caracas to attend the Earth Summit in Johannesburg.


Black Blade: There was some confusion as some Saudi reps had indicated that they would increase oil production when the US attacked Iraq. Now oil prices appear to be touching $30/bbl again.



Waverider (08/31/02; 23:12:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 84090)
Sir Gandalf
Touche! My turn to laugh for 10 minutes...a migraine?? Must've been the transmission - yes? And Gandalf....just how DID you know that the dance is called Dance of the Veils???? Now this IS getting EERIE!!!
Waverider


Black Blade (08/31/02; 23:07:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 84089)
Re: steady

Your welcome. It sounds like you got a good start. Using a "bank" is a matter of convenience, though I actually use a local credit union and never use a bank (yeah, there actually is a difference). My money market accounts are actually cash parked in short term US bonds. Other than that, there's nothing like the freedom of having no debt, though I have banks, credit card companies, brokers, finance companies, etc. constantly trying to barrage me with mailers, phone calls, etc.

I always get a kick out of haggling with a car salesman for example (or any salesman), settle on a price, then paying cash or check. They don't get the kick back from a finance company and I don't buy their "special" options and warranty's either. It is actually quite funny as you see they are a bit ticked off knowing that you could've paid more and you just ate into their commision. Hell, I even haggle at stores for goods (usually the managers) and various other places. I tend to get some very good deals. Most people don't know it, but store managers (and some sales people) do have room to cut prices. I probably shave a couple of thousand a year off my purchases. It has become a sport.

As far as the fishing, today was good. However, tomorrow is the start of elk season so no beer tonight, just a quick trout and rice dinner with a cup or two of mate.

Cheers!

- Black Blade


steady (08/31/02; 22:42:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 84088)
thanks
blackblade i have no debt, have a cash flow and started my non perishable food program. for fear i keep my cash stashed not even in the bank, why should i let them make money off me? and untill they get intrest rates above 1% whats the point anyway.
keep up the good work thanks for repsonding . once in a while let some of those fish go as u need a breeding population to sustain you !


Black Blade (08/31/02; 22:42:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 84087)
Re: steady

One more thing - I am not too concerned about colored currency as such. I also have put aside a lot of cash in coin in paper rolls as well. No need to be concerned about ink colors here. Every time I get coins change it just adds up and after a few years I had a few thousand dollars accumulated. So this along with my checking, savings, and money market accounts I have a ready cash stash. As far as precious metals, a good slow and steady accumulation over time can yield a nice "insurance" package. But PMs are just that - "insurance", or as even Alan Greenspan has said the "ultimate currency".

- Black Blade


4gold (08/31/02; 22:41:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 84086)
Thanks
compwiz4u and silvercollector

Black Blade (08/31/02; 22:33:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 84085)
Re: steady – Cash Stash

The reason for keeping a stash of cash, whether in a checking, money market, or debit account is to meet normal expenses. Say for example you are laid off, then a supply of ready cash would be useful while seeking other work or source of income. Constantly dipping into another supply of precious metals may be a bit cumbersome for meeting what are likely to be fixed expenses. A supply of precious metals should be held through thick and thin as the ultimate financial insurance. This is just a common sense approach to hedge against bad times and part of a comprehensive program designed for safety. The same goes for the food and basic goods storage part of this plan. The consistent accumulation of precious metals are for protection against the overall economic, banking and currency collapse (and also possibly for value appreciation in a weakened economy). Staying out of debt is just common sense no matter what the prevailing economic conditions. At the very least try to limit your liabilities as far as debt is concerned.

Following a good game plan geared toward safety will set you apart from those who will suffer when the economy hits bottom (note Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Brazil as the most recent examples). Once you are set up with a good strong safety net, then you might wish to play the paper investment games or other investment alternatives. I have been on the "Bone Pile" for a time now, but then I am not concerned either as I have plenty of cash, food and other items, positive cash flow from investments, and most important – no debt. I know others who are out of work who are very concerned about the future and others who if they were to become unemployed would be in extreme financial difficulty. The secret is to never live beyond your means and develop basic survival skills, Anyway that is my take. Cheers!

- Black Blade


Gandalf the White (08/31/02; 22:02:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 84084)
Siege Engine
Gold STILL above US$300. !!
Waverider (08/31/02; 20:17:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 84080)
Siege Engine (continued)
===
Gandalf, deep in The Valley of Clouds, awoke with a start!
He looked about in the dim glow of the dying campfire and saw only the forms of his loyal steed Shadowfax, and the soundly sleeping traveler Bonfir. Then he realized why he had awakened ! He had a migraine headache !! What was it that he had been dreaming about ? Oh yes, something about ANOTHER great military strategist named Sun Tzu, watching a "Dance of the Vails" OR, was I dreaming ?, thinks Gandalf to himself. NAW, it must be ALL these Clouds ! "I will think about this after my forthcoming meeting", he mutters to himself as falls back to sleep ......
<;-)


darkhorse (08/31/02; 21:45:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 84083)
@Sierra
You stated:

"Bottom line: if there is a war, Bush will have 100% support of the population."

I don't lean much to sector's side, but I disagree with your position also (not that anybody designated me as a referee). There's a bunch of people that don't understand why we would attack Iraq, and even those that do don't like it. The mess we're most likely going to be stepping into in the next couple months is at least an order of magnitude worse than what GW's dad got us into in Somalia. That wasn't about disarming any warlords, it was the UN forces learning how to work with each other for future, more intense actions...wait and watch for coming attractions of it's sequel here !


Sierra Madre (08/31/02; 21:20:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 84082)
Sector: it seems to me your are stretching your imagination too much
You say:"Thus we can be sure that the "Reason" is too big and too important to distribute...just yet. This is hardly the sign of a smooth-running White House."

You mean to say that Secretary of State Colin Powell does not know all the facts? That's a bit much, Sector! Not only much, but totally implausible!

Then you say: "IF there is a war, the internal support will erode fast without some really BIG reason to invade and occupy a sovereign nation."

If there is a war, once it gets started, there will be little looking back, and TPTB can always say, "We were under a TERRIBLE THREAT, Saddam was minutes away from releasing his WMD, we had absolutely no alternative." Who will be able to deny the story? And who will want to? What will be gained at that point?

If the war obtains the erasure of Saddam Hussein, with or without the evaporation of Iraq, and victory is obtained, who will care?

If the war goes badly, there will be so much savage hatred in the air, who will want to inquire whether it was all necessary? If the war goes badly, conditions may be very nasty, and the U.S. populace will only want to get the job over with, bar nothing.

Bottom line: if there is a war, Bush will have 100% support of the population.

JMO

Sierra


steady (08/31/02; 20:17:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 84081)
black blade question
black blade regarding the cash stash for a few months. I think a lil twist on that may be needed. there is concern , although it is small right now, about the new colored money that is in the pipeline will be issued to devalue the federal reserve notes, so why not have two hordes of gold. one that u dont want to tap into . and one that you can tap into and sell if and when the time is neccasary so lets say u have 6 months of cash why not put 1/3 of it into gold to avoid the problems that may arrise when they issue the new paper money. Im leaning towartds doing that myself> i need some feed back, what do u posters here think?

pl


Waverider (08/31/02; 20:17:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 84080)
Siege Engine
Gold > $300.00
As the Knights rested, Sir Gandalf and Shadowfox journeyed into The Valley of the Clouds. Lady Waverider had a preliminary plan which she hoped the council would consider. She reviewed it again in her mind, examining it from every possible angle for a weakness, but could find none. And, yes...still the military strategy had to be determined. She was eager to communicate the plan with Sir Gandalf, and decided she would attempt to expedite transmission via Sir Gandalf's extraordinary powers of telepathy. Even in The Valley of Clouds Sir Gandalf could decipher her thoughts provided she focused and concentrated...she began...Sir Gandalf...the plan...see 8/18/02 # 83231..she focused...concentrated...yes...finally she knew in her spirit that Sir Gandalf had received the plan and now she would peacefully wait for his return, and for the Council's decision. Meanwhile, Sir Slingshot and the Knights continued with their military strategy...

Golden Bear (08/31/02; 20:15:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 84079)
Greenspan the Evil Genie... Sean Corrigan spins a nice yarn.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/corrigan/corrigan15.html
Snippit:

"...In this telling, as you are digging around under the thorn tree, you unearth a stoppered bottle, buried in the damp sand. Taking out the cork, you are amazed that a great cloud of smoke billows out and, before your unbelieving eyes, a turbaned figure materializes in the reek.

‘Ah, Effendi, you have released me from the prison of a thousand years, whence I was confined by a White Magus from the land of Pannonia! I shall satisfy the most urgent of your desires, in gratitude for my much belated liberation.’

Setting aside your astonishment (though half believing this is a delirium brought on by the heat), you tell the Genie you want water – copious, nay, inexhaustible, amounts of fresh, cold water.

‘So small a request for so great a service,’ observes the Genie, chuckling. ‘It shall be as you say. Only show the Spirits of the Place that you desire water and they will furnish you with your Heart's Desire, for, O foolish Mortal, it has only been your own parsimony which has left you in dearth, rather than summoning forth the gratification of your wants by their very expression!’

Who are you to argue with a genie?

You do as he commands and you immediately guzzle the last few pints of your water reserve and hold out the containers in the expectation they will be magically refilled.

But, alas! You have sealed your doom, for this is no benevolent spirit which you have freed, but an Evil Djinn – a demiurge – who was bottled up by the wise old Austrian seer for the very good reason that it was his malice to lead trusting Men to ruin with his nostrums – and so there is no miracle to be had, whereby your waterskins are miraculously replenished.

‘Foolish Man,’ the Djinn cackles as he dissolves into the desert breeze once more. ‘To think that plenty arises spontaneously to repair waste and to gratify desire! How naïve you Humans, truly are!’
---------------------------------------------------

GB: Too bad we didn't keep him bottled...


kasperjack (08/31/02; 20:15:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 84078)
Freeport employed teachers shot up badly

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. Makes
Statement On Shooting Incident in Papua
Saturday August 31, 5:56 pm ET

NEW ORLEANS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 31, 2002--A shooting incident on a
remote section of a mountain road near the PT Freeport Indonesia mining facility
in the Indonesian province of Papua has left three people dead and ten others
injured.

At approximately 1:00pm on Saturday, August 31, unidentified assailants opened
fire on several vehicles transporting international schoolteachers and some
members of their families along the road between highlands and lowlands
communities. Two American teachers and an Indonesian national were killed. Ten
others, including eight expatriates and two Indonesian nationals, were injured.
The wounded individuals were airlifted to medical facilities in Australia and Jakarta
for treatment.

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX - News) and PT Freeport
Indonesia deplore this senseless act of violence and express sincere
condolences to the family and friends of the victims. The schoolteachers were
employees of International School Systems. Several employees of KPI, an
Indonesian logistics contractor, were among the injured. Both companies are
contractors to the PT Freeport Indonesia mining operations in Papua.
_______________________________
Two point six million ounces of gold production is on the line.


Golden Bear (08/31/02; 19:50:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 84077)
Excellent piece by Bill Fleckenstein - Greenspan gets trashed further...
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P28699.asp?special=msn
Snippit:

"....Actually, the minority view of the Fed's incompetence may now be set to encompass Main Street at large. That is suggested by a recent piece in The Washington Post called "Give Greenspan's Fed Its Share of the Blame" by William Greider. Some of the excerpts are just spectacular, so I absolutely must share them.

By now, everyone should have enough background for the article to really hit home. Greider begins:

"With New Economy icons falling all around, the next one may be the Federal Reserve and
its hallowed chairman, Alan Greenspan. When anxieties subside and people examine what caused this debacle, they may grasp that the Fed's policies and proclamations are centrally implicated. Notwithstanding his opaque manner, Greenspan became a cheerleader for the financial-market optimism and implicitly ratified its excesses. The chairman failed to take the timely actions that would have instilled more caution in investors, believing as he does that markets can work things out on their own. Well, they have.

"This is exactly what you don't want from a Federal Reserve chairman. Central bankers are not supposed to be either optimistic or popular. They are supposed to be the national scold - - the economic regulators who worry constantly over what might go wrong and impose restraints before public opinion or the markets see any problem. In that sense, the Federal Reserve went off the rails in the bubbling 1990s. Though still celebrated for wise stewardship, the Fed failed its core function as the disinterested governor.

"How does Greenspan feel, for instance, about the mega-conglomerates in banking that he helped midwife, now that Citigroup (C, news, msgs) and J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM, news, msgs) are in the crosshairs of criminal investigations? The Fed chairman personally approved Citigroup's creation even before Congress made it legal by repealing the Glass-Steagall Act. He approved the 'firewalls' that were supposed to prevent the kind of scandalous conflicts of interest recently revealed. And did the Fed's own bank examiners not notice the funny-money lending to Enron?"

Finally, here is Greider's conclusion:

"But Greenspan's second great error was joining the celebration himself. He suggested that
rising productivity had opened a glorious new era of ever-upward prosperity. His ebullient remarks sounded very similar to the self-congratulations expressed by the Federal Reserve in the late 1920s. Then and now, the Fed's happy talk excited stock-market plungers, large and small. . . . The point is, the nation pays a terrible price for allowing this cloistered governing institution to evade serious public scrutiny and tougher questioning. Financial markets always matter, but finance is supposed to serve the real economy, not the other way around. Until the Fed's distorted priorities are corrected, the U.S. economy will continue to experience deep troubles."...."
--------------------------------------------------------

GB: Wall Street pimps and whores shuffling the chairs on the deck of the titanic, and telling the band to keep playing music...


slingshot (08/31/02; 19:11:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 84076)
Gandalf the White
Msg# 84071
Contest? Looking forward to it. Hope your doing well. Working long hours at the Mill. Next part of the story to post soon.
Slingshot-----------------------<>


Black Blade (08/31/02; 19:04:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 84075)
Treasuries May Gain on Expected Weak Job Growth: Bond Outlook
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APXDVYhXEVHJlYXN1

Snippit:

New York, Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries may rise next week as investors anticipate a government report will show job growth was limited in August, heightening speculation the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at a 41-year low until 2003. Stagnant jobs growth is ``an indication that the economy is not going as strong as we'd like to see,'' and may boost Treasuries, said Alan Day, who helps oversee $8 billion at Banknorth Investment Management Group in Burlington, Vermont. He said he has been buying government notes maturing in two to four years.


Black Blade: We will see higher unemployment over the next several months. As always, get out of debt (and stay out of debt), stash enough cash for several months expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.



Black Blade (08/31/02; 18:49:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 84074)
Comparing the bubble and the crash
http://www.cleveland.com/business/plaindealer/index.ssf?/xml/story.ssf/html_standard.xsl?/base/business/1030786432133680.xml


Snippit:

Jeffrey C. Thomas is obsessed with studying the bubble in stock values that formed in the late 1990s and burst in March 2000. The bubble's pop likely began what Thomas has identified as a "secular bear market." Such markets tend to occur once every 20 or 30 years and are marked by persistent falls in stock prices, as well as by a severe economic recession, Thomas said. The nation's last secular bear occurred from 1929 to 1946, said the president of Alpha Asset Management in Akron. It began with a speculative stock bubble that burst in 1929 with the "crash" of the market. The Great Depression followed.

Some American stock market practices today are eerily similar to those in 1929, Thomas said. Among them:

The idea that stocks earn better returns than other asset classes over the long-term is widely held. In 1925, Edgar Lawrence Smith wrote "Common Stocks as Long-term Investments," likely the seminal work for this idea in the previous cycle, Thomas said. And in 1998, finance professor Jeremy Siegel wrote "Stocks for the Long Run."

"Wonderful prosperity" marks the economy, along with some form of new technology. In the 1920s, it was the roll-out of electricity and the birth of radio. Automobiles also were increasing their presence. In the 1990s, it was the roll-out of fiber optic and wireless communication systems and devices, and the birth of the Internet, Thomas said.

In the late 1920s, "people were sitting around in coffee houses trading stocks for the first time," Thomas said. "That's analogous to people today quitting their jobs to become day traders."

In the 1920s, the Fed acted to stop gold - then the backing for major world currencies - from flowing out of England, Thomas said. In 1998, the Fed acted to ward off the financial flu that caused currency devaluations and stock market plunges in parts of Asia. Given all this, the best-case scenario is stock value growth of about 5 percent in each of the next several years, Thomas said. The worst case is a significant bear market and a severe recession.


Black Blade: Interesting though discussed here before, it is worth revisiting. Much of this is why I refer to today's events as the beginnings of the "New Great Depression".



sector (08/31/02; 18:38:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 84073)
White House: No division in the ranks over Iraq [Except maybe for the Secretary of State]
http://www.cnn.com/2002/US/08/30/powell.iraq/index.html
August 30, 2002 Posted: 11:08 PM EDT (0308 GMT)

Powell doesn't back invasion of Iraq without support of 'key allies'

A person close to Colin Powell tells CNN the secretary of state's view is the United States should not go it alone.

From Andrea Koppel
CNN State Department Correspondent

CRAWFORD, Texas (CNN) -- The White House Friday downplayed any suggestion that there is a split in President Bush's national security team over Iraq, despite opposing views coming from top members of the Cabinet.

U.S. officials tell CNN that U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell and other members of the team met earlier this week at the White House and discussed regional strategies, including those for Iraq.

"The view of the administration is united and one in the same," Scott McClellan, White House deputy press secretary, told reporters Friday in Crawford, Texas. "We are singing from the same songbook."

However, a person close to Powell within the administration says Powell does not believe the United States should invade Iraq without the support of "key allies."

This person, who asked not to be identified but is intimately familiar with Powell's thinking, said Thursday that Powell opposes any action in which the United States would "go it alone ... as if it doesn't give a damn" what other nations think.
+++++++++++++++++++++
The lack of Iraqi war top-level consensus implies that some Administration officials have yet to let in on the real reason for the invasion.

Thus we can be sure that the "Reason" is too big and too important to distribute...just yet. This is hardly the sign of a smooth-running White House.

IF there is a war, the internal support will erode fast without some really BIG reason to invade and occupy a sovereign nation.



Black Blade (08/31/02; 18:37:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 84072)
Reduced Profit Forecasts May Spur Losses: U.S. Stocks Outlook
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk,&s2=ad_right1_topfin&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topsum&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APXDLlRXGUmVkdWNl

Snippit:

New York, Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- The ratio of U.S. companies cutting third-quarter profit forecasts to those raising estimates is the highest in a year, suggesting that stocks may extend losses that snapped a five-week winning streak. ``The market is nervous about earnings for the remainder of this year and, more importantly, next year,'' said Mike Kayes, chief investment officer at Eastover Capital Management, which oversees $220 million in Charlotte. ``Will we see an earnings acceleration? If not, the market is not going anywhere.'' About 2.2 companies have lowered expectations for every one that has raised them, according to Ken Perkins, an analyst at Thomson First Call. Some 373 companies have reduced third-quarter earnings forecasts, compared with 285 at the same point last quarter.

``The natural adjustment from good economy to good profits isn't happening,'' said Kevin Jones, who helps manage $1.9 billion at ICM Asset Management Inc. in Spokane, Washington. For earnings, ``I'd like to see the bar set a little lower.'' The Nasdaq Composite Index declined 4.8 percent to 1314.85 for the week. Intel Corp.'s chief executive officer, Craig Barrett, said demand for personal computers and the semiconductors used to run them may not rebound during the year-end holiday season. Barrett's comments hurt other computer-related shares, which posted the biggest loss among the S&P 500's industry groups.


Black Blade: Earnings and more importantly "earnings quality" have deteriorated and looks to deteriorate more going forward. Everything suggests a global economy in decline. Debt is at all time record levels and growing, consumer spending is slowing, consumer confidence is weak, the U.S. dollar is weakening, global economies are vying for the same shrinking global markets, companies are losing pricing power and are cutting costs by adding to the growing "Bone Pile". It is up to each person to look out for number one. No one else will.



Gandalf the White (08/31/02; 16:01:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 84071)
SUGGESTION to ALL "Lurkers" !!!! <;-)
NOW is the time to make the decision to OBTAIN and register your "handle" and get your password, SO that you can be ready to POST on the USAGOLD Forum !!! In the NEAR future, you will be happy that you have done it now, as Contest Deadlines approach rapidly and The Forum Staff is sometimes unable to process all the late requests ! "COME ON IN NOW", all you "Lurkers". BIG things forthcoming soon.
<;-)


silvercollector (08/31/02; 15:18:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 84070)
4gold
I just picked up 'Gold Wars' last week, ordered through an agent of INDIGO. (MK, not promoting simply answering the question).

I am half through the book, given the cost I am not yet impressed. Lip's theories have all been discussed at great length on this forum.

If you are relatively new to the gold discussion it will be a quick catch-up though.

silvercollector


compwiz4u (08/31/02; 14:30:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 84069)
4Gold: Book Stores
http://www.bestwebbuys.com/books/index.html
4Gold,

Use the above link to go to bestwebbuys.com which will get the lowest price for any book including shipping among 23 on-line bookstores.

The site also compares prices for music, videos, electronics and bikes.

I think you will be impressed and find it really saves you money.


Belgian (08/31/02; 14:09:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 84068)
@ USAGOLD / Deutsche Bank's Troyan horse ?
Did DB knew about the gold derivative portfolio when they finalised the take over deal ? Both answers yes or no might have triggered different or finally some similar deal with "all" parties involved in the derivative package.
Who knows ?
My only reflection is the following : The ECB, a Bundesbank-copy, is an undemocratic institution (Maastricht Treaty !)
Undemocratic in the sense of autocratic and quasi independant (elitist à la BIS). Herein may or may not lay a German secretive agreeement with US-Goldreseves ? The ECB at DB's help (rescue) ?
Resulting in, not-German Goldreserves sales, but only sales of Gold originating from the US ? Imagine what a shock it would be if DB would shake investor's confidence !?

Worse, if JPM/C and DB would be exposed to the Gold mis-management, and linked to US/Euroland's central banks ?
Whoeeeeee ! They both (US/EURO) cannot let this happen...?
Why is it that the Suisse CB, suddenly, stopped selling their one tonne a day through BIS ? Was this official (transparant) announcement made during the DB take over ?

Are we speculating or rightout paranoia about those central banker's (Gold) plays ? We will soon find out if and when a Frenchmen will replace Wim D. I'm betting on intellectual heavyweight Pascal Lamy (EU commissionar for trade)(odds are 14/1) ? But what if Welteke gets the job (odds are 6/1)?

This week, Wim Duisenberg (ECB) demanded more accuracy in Euroland's economic statistics ! The euro is producing some inflationary pressure and this must be countered with a better euro > dollar exchange rate as to compensate for higher POO (and get infla. mildered). Euro up means dollar down with upwards pressure on POG ! And indeed Sir Gresham : NOT ONE (uno !!!) SINGLE REACTION ON OIL FOR EURO ! A_MA_ZING ! This, when it is now, as clear as crystal, that the US will have to go it alone into its desert-oil, adventure, dispite allusions made on Churchill/Hitler or Chamberlain or other moral threats (pressure)!

When reading the French press (Le Figaro) whilst on holidays, the whole week, there was strong debate (positioning) on the Middle East and war. A growing anti-americanism is surfacing, openly. This will translate in a stronger struggle between euro and dollar plus a, coming closer, to the "silent" euro/oil/gold concept. IMVHO, it is the ECB that is managing POG with or without the doctor No's !? Gold is not a God forgotten, obscure, reserve asset that fluctuates to the dollar's exchange rate caprices...but it is THE RESERVE that LEADS the floating confetti market (exchange rates). BBIIIGGGGGG difference !



4gold (08/31/02; 13:38:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 84067)
HELP!
I would like to get the book "Gold Wars". Does anybody know where it can be purchased.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (08/31/02; 10:41:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 84066)
Your onramp to the highways and byways of portfolio diversification
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html

ABCs of Au by MK

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.



sector (8/31/02; 08:49:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 84065)
Doug Nolan's Credit Bubble Bulletin - Greenspan Ripped to Shreds
http://64.29.208.119/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Credit+Bubble+Bulletin&content_idx=15012

[…
It is clear that Dr. Greenspan is adept at crafting reasoning that deflects responsibility from him and Fed policies for the great hardship that has and will be suffered by so many. More troubling, he is determined to espouse only more outlandish disinformation and erroneous/dangerous analysis. To blame "investor psychology" for the U.S. Bubble is ridiculous.

Greenspan has developed into the grand master of spin and instantaneous historical revisionism. This is a great disservice to the public interest and is unacceptable from the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. We have in the past invoked the fable of the "Emperor with No Clothes." Well, it is past time to admit that Greenspan is a man of intellectual nakedness. Can the economic community please cease with the mindless kowtowing and instead commence with an open debate of these critical issues? Today's speech leaves no doubt that Dr. Greenspan is more interested in protecting his reputation than the pursuing the knowledge and analysis necessary to help protect the public welfare. Must we wait for some type of collapse or crisis to begin the learning process? The "Emperor" should step aside. But, regrettably, it is more a case of Greenspan as economic dictator. It is time for an intellectual "uprising" to cast aside the failed thinking and obfuscation from the Greenspan era and usher in a new period of analytical rigor, open-minded impartiality, and intellectual integrity. In this regard, we have an incredibly exciting opportunity. There is much work to be done. ]
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
Doug Nolan at his best.

He reveals specific repo numbers that are mind numbing. There can no doubt that these repurchase agreements are the method of stock market manipulation.

Greenspan's character flaw centers on a revulsion of criticism and therefore hurculean powers of denial coupled with a manic effort to hide and spin mistakes. This piece by Nolan strikes at the core of the Master of the Universe's weaknesses and as such is a beautiful dissection.

Financial Armageddon is an obvious consequence of the Fed's policy bungling…this essay should remove any lingering uncertainty.



Blackjack (8/31/02; 08:40:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 84064)
Saudi repatriated cash moving to Real Estate
http://www.arabnews.com/Article.asp?ID=18212
JEDDAH, 31 August — The real estate market in the Kingdom is likely to witness a big boom over the coming months as a result of repatriation of funds from the United States.

Real estate dealers in Jeddah have told Arab News that a number of major deals have already been signed in the city for sale of land for construction purposes.

Khaled Sultan, head of a real estate company in Jeddah, said the situation in the market was "extremely satisfactory" as a result of growing demand.
__________________
It would be great if the repatriated cash went into Gold.
I'm sure some of it will, but it looks like another RE bubble
coming Saudi style. Hard assets getting popular.


sector (8/31/02; 08:15:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 84063)
Muslims Told to Withdraw U.S. Assets
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 5:56 a.m. ET

BEIRUT, Lebanon (AP) -- Muslims everywhere should withdraw their money from U.S. markets because those funds may be frozen or confiscated, Lebanon's top Shiite Muslim cleric said in a sermon.

Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah also warned worshippers gathered for Friday prayers in a Beirut suburb that a possible U.S. attack on Iraq was designed to assert America's control of oil in the Middle East and elsewhere.

Fadlallah's sermon came days after a lawyer for 700 relatives of Sept. 11 victims filed a $1 trillion lawsuit against the Saudi and Sudanese governments, as well as members of Saudi royal family, banks and charities. It contends that they financed the plot in which some 3,000 people died.

``We must change our mentality in the political, economic and security dealings with America, especially by withdrawing Arab and Islamic investments in America because new laws there have started to represent dangers of freezing and confiscating under decisions resulting from Sept. 11,'' Fadlallah said.

The Financial Times reported earlier this month that Saudi investors have withdrawn $200 billion from U.S. financial markets in recent weeks. The report was denied by Saudi billionaire investor Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, a nephew of Saudi King Fahd, who said that withdrawing such an amount from American markets would have caused a shockwave in the United States.

Fadlallah, 67, is a senior Shiite religious authority and a harsh critic of U.S. policies in the Middle East, a region where many Arabs view America as being biased toward Israel in its conflict with the Palestinians.

On Aug. 12, Fadlallah issued a Fatwa, or religious edict, banning Muslims from assisting the United States and its allies if they attack Iraq.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

If Muslims discover a trustworthy [To them] alternative to US assets, THAT will become their favored weapon of choice in the coming ME war. Gold could easily be the vehicle.

Thinking about it, there are so many unintended consequences to this Iraqi adventure that predictions of a "Victory" by the Administration are foolish.

The post "Victory" phase in Iraq [IF it gets to that point] will be a nightmare of terrorist attacks on what will necessarily be a huge American occupation force. Moreover, the Al Qaeda forces here will be emboldened to carry out the worst of their plans.




Black Blade (8/31/02; 06:15:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 84062)
Re: turkey hunter
http://www.msnbc.com/news/nw-futureenergy_front.asp?cp1=1

I used to get mailers for GSA symposiums, however, I haven't heard from them for years. It is a nice theory but anything can happen. We may develop other energy sources. However, oil will always be available at a price. Those industries that cannot exist at higher prices will use other sources or substitutes will be found. That does not mean that even though other energy sources may be used, oil has critical by-products aside from energy such as plastics, sythetics, herbicides, pesticides, and numerous other petrochemicals. The argument over oil isn't whether we will run out, but rather how much we are willing to pay for extraction (lifting costs) and refining (variable depending on quality).

For more on energy and alternatives see the link above. There are several interesting articles on the future of energy though a lot of speculation. Also, a good book that addresses your question would be: "Geodestinies" by Youngquist. It has a good section on precious metals as well. I don't necessarily agree with all the authors conclusions but he states his case well. Cheers!

- Black Blade


turkey hunter (8/31/02; 02:57:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 84061)
@ Black Blade Olduvai Gorge Theory
http://dieoff.com/page224.htm
Hi BlackBlade. I came across this Olduvai Gorge theory this morning. The jest of the theory says that the Industrial Revolution will end in 2030 for lack of energy. Does the theory have merit or just a bunch of enviromentalism? Thanks . Turkey Hunter


Black Blade (8/31/02; 01:45:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 84060)
Harvest of Tears in Drought-Ravaged Canadian West
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20020823/wl_canada_nm/canada_food_crops_col_3


Snippit:

WINNIPEG, Manitoba (Reuters) - Canada confirmed Prairie farmers' worst fears on Friday in a report that slashed crop production forecasts after one of worst growing seasons since the dust bowl of the 1930s. "Many producers believe that the conditions were the driest ever experienced in the west," Statistics Canada said in its first production estimates of the new 2002-03 crop year. The report, coming from one of the world's top grain and oilseed exporters, was a testament to a horrific season. First, farmers were plagued with a late planting season, followed by severe drought, soaring temperatures, grasshoppers and, most recently, fears of early frosts. The punishing conditions are repeated across the border, with many U.S. farmers facing the same grim outlook. Drought-ravaged U.S. wheat fields are expected to produce the smallest crop in 30 years.


Black Blade: Grain prices are rising fast and ranchers are culling herds. This could stretch into next year as well. Better stock up on beer as barley prices are going up. One point that I keep stressing is to start a nonperishable food storage program, though I tend to think in terms of the growing "Bone Pile", preparing for dwindling food stockpiles is another reason to prepare.



Black Blade (8/31/02; 00:55:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 84059)
Drought Is Seen Pushing Up Power Prices
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20020826/bs_nm/utilities_drought_dc_1

Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A severe drought that has gripped the Southeastern United States for four years is cutting into profits at the region's electric utilities, and may force rate hikes in a region known for its cheap power, industry officials warned. Low water levels have forced utilities in the Carolinas to severely cut back use of hydroelectric facilities -- their cheapest source of power. Meanwhile, cooling water is running low at nuclear, coal, oil and gas-fired plants. "If things don't improve over the course of the winter, if you don't see some of these lakes and ponds and rivers refill, then next year you are looking at a serious situation," said Garrick Francis, spokesman for Progress Energy Inc. subsidiary CP&L.

Other Duke Power fossil fuel plants have had to trim power output because heated water emptying from cooling systems would raise the temperatures of depleted streams and lakes to levels harmful to fish and other aquatic life. "We need a couple years of above average rainfall."


Black Blade: Drought may contribute to an energy crisis. I have been talking to some industry professionals today and tonight about the natural gas situation as well. We in the west have been told that the problem lies in the natural gas "pipeline bottleneck". There is only one major pipeline for natural gas extending from the Powder River Basin. It now appears that there is a growing consensus that the low price for this Wyoming NG (80 cents/Mcf vs. $3.50/Mcf) is a function of no competition between competing pipeline companies. Many companies are simply shutting down drilling and production. This will add to the fast decline of NG supply going into the winter months. If the drought contributes to declining energy production and higher costs from other sources we are looking at another energy crisis like we experienced last year and then the economy will go into a death spiral. "Interesting Times"

BTW, the NOAA is predicting a colder winter this year on account of El Nino.



Blackjack (8/31/02; 00:18:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 84058)
Americas love affair with stocks is Over
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BA0A1D57C%2DF879%2D44E7%2DA69E%2DBCB089B0621E%7D&siteid=mktw
The Main Street crowd, largely disgusted with the stock market and everything that corporate America represents, is near a turning point. As Elliott Wave theorist Robert Prechter Jr. points out in his new book, "Conquer the Crash," the leanings and opinions of ordinary folks set the directions for the stock market, not the other way around as most of us were taught in Economics 101.

Those leanings (Wall Street calls this investor and consumer sentiment) are bordering on lethal. "Not only is the market a ticking time bomb, but so is the global economy," says Jeff Morgan, whose main credentials are an e-mail account, a brain and the eyes to see what others can't. "I'm constantly amazed at how many people are in denial. And we sure don't need to dance with Iraq anytime soon. I don't want a self-fulfilling prophecy, but people had better get their finances in order real soon because the bottom is going to fall out just like a big sink hole."

As we enter the autumn season, America's love affair with stocks shows signs of ending -- after more than 20 years. The light bulbs are starting to burn bright as folks switch off their online brokerage accounts and switch on their common sense. Stock investors -- the ones who have lost half their savings these past 30 months -- are probing Bankrate.com and other services for the safest money-market and cash alternatives.

Plain-vanilla savings bonds, and gold, are in the running for best-performing investment classes. The Commodity Research Bureau's (XX:1864498: news, chart, profile) tally of hard assets -- agricultural, metal and so on -- is at its highest point since June 2001. Organizers says precious metals and contrarian investment conferences set for the autumn season -- in New York, Denver and New Orleans -- are already at overflow.

For the most part, the folks streaming to these fresh investment waves are you and me: our spouses, our fathers-in-law, our house painters, maybe the owner of that dry-cleaning shop down the block. Or your medical doctor, whose self-managed retirement funds and hopeless mutual funds are on death's door.

"As of today," individual investor Bruce Allen tells me, "I am again long the gold market. I don't know if I'll turn another quick 45 percent profit, but with all of the screwy stuff going on in the markets, I'll take my chances with gold."


Black Blade (8/31/02; 00:13:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 84057)
Bye bye, bull - Gold funds regain their luster
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B7BEC3C65%2DD497%2D488D%2D9673%2DA43AE49C56BF%7D


Snippit:

"With gold still viewed to some degree as a safe harbor, and with rhetoric about U.S. and Iraq ratcheting still higher, it's no wonder gold has found support above $300," observed Erik Gebhard, an analyst at Altavest.com.

Black Blade: Precious metals are important enough as portfolio insurance that anyone who does not prepare and suffers terrible losses in the equities markets probably deserve it. Some learn by experience and the more intelligent of the specie learn vicariously and through reason and logic.



Black Blade (8/31/02; 00:12:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 84056)
Slow School Shopping
http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml;jsessionid=NOQSQNTLUAFRMCRBAELCFEY?type=businessnews&StoryID=1393269


Snippit:

Most retailers who reported positive earnings in their latest quarter cited inventory controls that offset slower sales. The back-to-school shopping season has started off slowly, and one concern is that a weak fall quarter could foreshadow stagnant holiday shopping. "Back to school and holiday are slightly separate, because one effects a certain segment of the population and holiday shopping is more widespread," said Korn Ferry's Remick. "But it'll be a simpler holiday. People will continue to shop but will be more conservative about what they purchase."


Black Blade: Scratch one economic recovery. "Interesting Times" ahead.




Black Blade (8/31/02; 00:11:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 84055)
Jobless on Labor Day
http://money.cnn.com/2002/08/30/news/labor/index.htm


The holiday honors American workers, who might prefer something more substantial -- like a job.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - America honors its workers with the annual Labor Day holiday Monday, but parades and picnics won't do much to ease the pain a recession has caused the labor force -- and the unions that started Labor Day likely won't help much, either. The most obvious problem facing the work force is stagnant job growth. Since March 2001, when a recession in the broader U.S. economy began, nearly 1.7 million jobs have been lost, and more than 3.5 million people are drawing unemployment benefits.

"The job market is going to get worse -- this is a jobless recovery," said Anthony Chan, chief economist at Banc One Investment Advisors, who said he expected the unemployment rate to climb to at least 6.1 percent this year. And the NAM agreed, saying its survey of manufacturers -- who cut the most jobs during the recession -- found most planned to continue to gradually lower payrolls this year, helping keep the total unemployment rate near 6 percent until 2003. With jobs scarce and corporate profits suffering from a broader economic downturn, not only are the aggressive employee recruitment tactics of the late 1990s long gone, more basic employee perks such as raises and bonuses are also under pressure.


Black Blade: Unfortunately this is too optimistic. I would expect job losses maybe somewhere between 8% to 12% next year and who knows after that. The "Bone Pile" continues to grow as the economy weakens and companies cut costs. Companies cut costs by firing nonessential workers. As always get out of debt (and stay out of debt), stash enough cash for several months expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.



Black Blade (8/31/02; 00:10:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 84054)
The Conjoined Twins of Real Estate
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/paulos083002.htm


Housing Bubble?

Snippit:

One of the most ballyhooed statistics in real estate is the percentage of homeownership among the eligible population. It currently stands at a record 68% of adult US population. This same statistic proves that most of the demand for owned housing has now been satisfied. One cannot assume that all of the remaining 32% will ever purchase a home. Many people prefer the mobility of rental, and many others will never qualify. This leaves the smallest percentage of the population ever as potential new homebuyers. Economically, this means little latent (unsatisfied) demand left in the market, another negative for home prices. Many of the demographic trends that have supported rising real estate prices are in danger of reversing. If even just one or two of them reverse, prices may decline. Demographic trends are getting weaker as a source of housing demand and will reduce upward pressure on home prices.

The perception of low risk in real estate has been cultivated from decades of almost uninterrupted inflation in home prices. General declines in home values don't happen very often, but they have occurred. Many of the long-term demographic trends that have driven home prices are now starting to flatten out. Therefore, it would be difficult to imagine double-digit price gains continuing into the distant future. No matter how low interest rates go, home prices cannot outpace income gains forever. The best possible scenario for buyers, sellers, owners, and lenders alike would be a flattening out of the market and a return to home price inflation that about equals the general inflation rate. With inflation and interest rates at 40-year lows, this would be a difficult equilibrium to maintain. If the inflation rate goes negative (deflation), the highly leveraged real estate market could easily shift into reverse. If interest rates tick up, real estate will be negatively affected. A flat real estate market in this environment would be sitting on a knife-edge.

The consequences of even a modest decline in average home prices would be serious. So many industries are dependent on real estate (construction, landscaping, remodeling, furniture, lumber, appliances, municipal governments, etc.) that a slowdown might become self-reinforcing and cause a widespread economic decline. A general home price decline will almost certainly lead to higher foreclosure rates. Most people would work hard to keep their homes, even if the market price declined below the purchase price. But there are many highly indebted homeowners with little or no equity who could be forced to sell into a weak market. If the home sells for less that they owe, these people would be liable for thousands of dollars at the closing table. Few people would pay to sell their homes, the only alternative being foreclosure.


Black Blade: A very good article that presents several scenarios and the very likely possibility of a weakening real estate market. Given the declining economy, rising layoffs, record level consumer debt, weaker consumer confidence, weaker consumer spending, etc. it is no wonder that the real estate bubble is in danger of popping. With 2/3 of American adults as homeowners it would appear that the market for new home owners is very limited. In a word – "Grim".





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