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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...

 

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FORUM ARCHIVES
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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 7/31/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Belgian (07/31/02; 23:57:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 82004)
@ Steady
Some reflections on your question :
The interventionist FED, colluding financiers, corporations AND the general public...had a fantastic joy-ride, for the past 30 years. Today, the above groups are entangled in a "struggle". An increasing confrontation and conflict of interests. And it is *only* the general public that is "victimized" and will ultimately pay for the joy-ride .
Yes, yes, yes...we definitely landed into a huge monopoly game ! The huge saturation of FALSIFICATIONS cannot be undone or unwinded into an orderly manner. More and more falsifications are needed to cover up for the existing ones.
Some falsifications are exposed but therefore not eradicated...on the contrary, they are given another life.

The general public starts to catch a glimpse of some of the large listings of falsifications. But it are only the minor ones, promoted to be the most spectacular ones. But how does one tell the general public that the biggest "systemic" falsifications are almost perfectly hidden under the one and only paper price of GOLD ? Cooking books and all other creative stuff, means *nothing* against the systemic falsification of the Permanent Currency Depreciations, proliferating relentlessly !

The inevitable attack on Iraq has to be postponed to allow the financial brotherhood to do some *repairing* work. Read cover up and restoration of confidence as to continue the monopoly game. Cynical isn't it ?

Oh yeah...The Breaking point...!? Answer : when financial "fatique" breaks the wings or tail of the joy-flier. When : as the vibrations increase in frequency and amplitude. Is happening now and another try is going on to dampen it, again. One day it want work anymore. This within your and mine lifetime.


Gandalf the White (07/31/02; 23:31:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 82003)
The Hobbits wish to be Agents on this "Serial".
"Siege Engine" (A Serial of Many Chapters !)
NOW with both Sir Slingshot and Lady Waverider weaving the story, the Hobbits are going back and gathering ALL the prior Chapters to send copies to the Publishers for BIDS !
(ONLY FREE GOLD Bids accepted of course !)
<;-)



Black Blade (07/31/02; 22:31:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 82002)
Colombian banks exercise dollar options
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020731/markets_colombia_options_1.html


Snippit:

BOGOTA, Colombia, July 31 (Reuters) - Financial institutions have exercised the remaining $63 million out of $180 million in dollar-purchase options auctioned this week by the Central Bank, the Central Bank said Wednesday, in an announcement that could herald more intervention to support the peso.

Black Blade: Another SA country on the verge of economic collapse. The FARC has the advantage in the country side, minor right-wing paramilitaries hold small pockets, and the government is confined to the cities. Looks like a country about to collapse both politically and economically.



Black Blade (07/31/02; 21:57:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 82001)
Williams in talks to avert bankruptcy
http://biz.yahoo.com/ft/020731/1028126229150_2.html

Snippit:

Williams was in talks late on Wednesday with Lehman Brothers and MidAmerican Energy on ways the US energy trader could obtain secured financing to meet $800m (£510m) in debt payments this week and stave off bankruptcy, according to those close to the talks. Oklahoma-based Williams has been seeking a $1bn secured bank loan after failing last week to renew a $2.2bn bank line, leading ratings agencies to downgrade its credit to below investment grade. If Williams fails to make the payments, analysts expect it to be forced to seek bankruptcy protection from creditors.


Black Blade: Another one close to the abyss. Perhaps this one too will bite the dust. It looks a little shakey. With all these bankruptcies, earnings restatements, and scandals galore, where is the second half recovery that the primates trotted out on CNBC and CNNfn have been touting for the last three years? Perhaps the media will get silverback Abby Jo to drag her knuckles across the stage floor to an open mike at CNBC to tell us how the S&P 500 will reach 1350 by year end. Hmmm…



Black Blade (07/31/02; 21:46:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 82000)
Alcoa Cutting U.S. Output, Sees Charge
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020731/minerals_alcoa_7.html

Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Alcoa Inc. (NYSE:AA), the world's No. 1 aluminum producer, on Wednesday said it would idle or eliminate production at three U.S. plants, cutting 377 jobs, because of high energy and labor costs.


Black Blade: Let's see, this is Paul O’Neill's old company and he is telling us that the US economy is just humming along in grand fashion. I wonder if he sold all his Alcoa shares yet. Hmmm…



slingshot (07/31/02; 21:37:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 81999)
Waverider
Siege Engine
Wonderful.
What took you Ladies so long? I knew sooner or later you would chime in. Your part of the story is so fluid. Mine is kinda herky jerky. The battle has just begun and plenty of twists and turns will be involved.

Think I can make a living as a writer? :0)
Slingshot-------------------<>


Waverider (07/31/02; 21:19:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 81998)
If I may....Siege Engine cont...
The horse had arrived without its messenger, for he lay face down and wounded in the emerald field. Blood oozed from his wound but he was still alive...he turned his head...he saw the sun blazing down on him as he drifted in and out of consciousness. It hurt to breath but he was determined to rejoin his men..."Think...clearly...what to do?" Suddenly, from the periphery of the battle field a solitary figure on horseback flew at a full gallop towards the messenger. Her thick black hair blew in the wind and matched the grace of the horses mane. She provided support to the army, tending to the wounded and providing encouragement when circumstances seemed bleak. She couldn't stand the sight of the messenger lying helpless in the field and knew she had to assist him, being closer to him in physical proximity than anyone else. As she approached the messenger, she reined in her horse and jumped to the ground in a single, fluid action. The sudden gust of wind aroused the messenger and as he opened his eyes she was already assisting him to his feet. With a sudden surge of strength she hoisted him across the front of the saddle, being careful not to disturb the arrow lodged in his back. She positioned herself behind the messenger, knotted her reins, and secured him with only her hands. The arabian mare turned in an instant and galloped back towards the edge of the forest. They had escaped...the messenger would survive...and now she had to focus on how she would remove the arrowhead...

Golden Bear (07/31/02; 21:08:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 81997)
slingshot (msg#: 81992) Siege engine
Sir slingshot,

Simply wonderful storytelling... keep up the good work.

Cheers.


Boxman (07/31/02; 20:27:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 81996)
Martha Stewart may be grilled.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/story/7202p-6694c.html
The congressman leading the probe into the ImClone insider-trading scandal said yesterday he wants to grill Martha Stewart - but not at a public hearing.

Boxman- She saved herself $240,000.00 by dumping her ImClone stock, and her net worth has dropped $300 million due to her company stock being cut by more than 50% as a result of the disclosure. If it is proven that she was forewarned of ImClones problems, this may go down in history as one of the most idiotic financial and personal blunders of all time.

There are still some people that the country and even the world admire so much that they cannot afford to make even small mistakes. The big mistakes will make them irrelevent and the object of derision for the rest of their lives. Martha may just be one of those personalities.



Waverider (07/31/02; 20:15:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 81995)
Steady
I hope that someone with more understanding of the international markets than what I have responds to your question, but I'll just add this little tidbit from Keynes, "The Economic Consequences of the Peace" 1919

"...by a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate secretly and unobserved an important part of the wealth of their citizens...There is no subtler, no surer means of overthrowing the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose".

I think your proposal has some validity...and that diagnostic ability quotient could stand some improvement - yes? Cheers,
Waverider


Boxman (07/31/02; 20:10:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 81994)
AOL's second federal probe for the second time in as many weeks
http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=businessnews&StoryID=1277805
NEW YORK (Reuters) - AOL Time Warner Inc. AOL.N has been targeted in a federal probe for the second time in as many weeks, disclosing on Wednesday that the U.S. Department of Justice has started an inquiry into accounting practices at its America Online division.


It will be interesting to see the spin on this. If they are real creative, the market will move up (Not)


Black Blade (07/31/02; 19:59:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 81993)
Market Wrap Up - Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm


Three BIG Words: Revision, Recession, and Intervention

Snippit:

Three words can best describe today's markets: revision, recession, and intervention. The morning began with the government's report on GDP for Q2 and the revisions for years 1999-2001. First a look at the Q2 numbers which show the economy has weakened considerably from the first quarter. The rate of economic growth slowed down to only 1.2% versus economists’ estimates of 2.4%. In addition to the slump in economic growth, another report by the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for July showed a sharp drop in manufacturing activity. The Chicago CPM Index fell to 51.5% from June's 58.2%. A reading below 50 indicates the economy is contracting. Like the GDP numbers, which fell short of expectations, the CPM Index came in far lower than expected.

In addition to these numbers, the Fed's periodic Beige Book report showed the economy expanding modestly and unevenly across the country. The Fed used words such as "stable," "steady," "modest," or "moderate" to describe economic conditions. Four of the Fed's districts in New York, Boston, Atlanta and Dallas show that economic activity is tapering off. Six other districts reported marginal growth; while only two regions of the country, Cleveland and St. Louis, showed signs of growth. Retail sales are mixed, and in most regions of the country there are visible signs that consumers are starting to retrench on their spending plans. Labor markets are weak and real estate was mixed.

Other snippits:

We are now in a corrective process that is taking some of the froth out of the gold markets from second quarter. Once these excesses have been taken out, and gold has been transferred from weak to stronger hands, the stage is set for the next advance of what I believe will be a decade-long bull market. At the moment, gold and silver are climbing a wall of disbelief by both bulls and bears. By fall, and finally by winter, much of this disbelief will turn to conviction. There is nothing like a strong price move to new highs to create new converts. A spike in prices is going to depend, to some extent, on what happens to the dollar and Treasuries. If they both plunge, which I suspect they will, then you are going to see some very large gaps in the price of gold and silver.

Wall Street was jubilant that the markets finished on the plus side given all of the negative news. Just a sample listing of a few of the stories: economy begins to slump, economic numbers revised lower, Adobe sales drop for the fifth straight quarter, Brazil's currency plunges on debt default concerns, Allianz abandons profit forecast for the year, Verizon loss widens, Cooper Tire sanctioned for withholding documents, AOL Time Warner hit by 2nd Federal probe, Democrats covering up for Rubin, suicide bomber kills seven in Jerusalem, and Saddam Hussein in process of acquiring nuclear bombs. Given all of this cheerful news, the markets staged one of those miraculous last hour recoveries as it went out for the day in glorious fashion on a huge number of statistically improbable up ticks. Whoever was buying didn't care about the price. They were just buying in a maniacal fashion. So we went from one up-tick to another, rising like a submarine desperate for air until the markets finally went positive.


Black Blade: Tonight's update is well worth reading for a feel of the lunacy in today's markets. The PM markets are still surprisingly strong in spite of the strength in the US dollar and the rising stock markets. However, these rising stock markets are trading in a very bizarre manner and I suspect that something is definitely not kosher here. The market trading has taken a different tone since Dubya gave his "The Markets Will Rise" speech a couple of weeks ago, and sure enough the markets rose in spite of horrific revelations of fraud, downward revised data, piss poor earnings (or even no earnings), grim corporate outlooks, scandals galore, continued geopolitical tensions and terrorist acts. I also have noted the very strange sudden upsurges in market index futures activity prior to the market opening on Wall Street. The markets are defying all the fundamentals with jerky spikes and up ticks as though one major investor was running the market action. There appears to be no pretense of these major players for covering their tracks anymore. Very bizarre indeed.



slingshot (07/31/02; 19:47:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 81992)
Seige Engine
Gold above $300.00
There was nothing more to do except retire for the day. Each side knew what tommorrow would bring.War councils would be convened, stratagies planned and orders issued for the battle. Fires burned bright into the night. Men sharpened their swords and inspected bow strings and arrows. When they were finished they gathered around the fire to tell stories and watch the embers rise into the night sky. Laying down to sleep, many would think to themselves of all the events which brought them here, wondering if is was worth the endurance of this tribulaton.

Before dawn the Goldbugs awoke. In the dark near the edge of the forest, they would wait for early light to show their presence. Battle preparations complete, all that was left to do was step into history.

The cool of the morning air was pleasant, but the heat of the day was forthcoming. Knights on horseback come from between the trees and men followed them. Banners unfolded and they waved on the breeze.
A single Horseman had come out in front of the line of men.
The rider turned. Sir Howe, stood before them. Taking a moment to look at his army, then spoke.
" We have come here today to fulfill what is in our hearts. It is that cause that binds us together and makes thirst for victory. Make no mistake, some will die, while others will live, but all of you will be remembered. We will discard the yoke of lies and broken dreams. So breathern, strike with your sword a mighty blow and may your arrow hit its mark.
For we have come to FREE GOLD!

Instantly, the battle cry , FREE GOLD, FREE GOLD, filled the air.
Sir Howe was then joined by Sir Murphy and Sir Powell. They looked into the faces before them and their mens eyes told them the men were ready for battle.

After a small conference, a messenger was dispatched to the Lord of the castle.
Under a flag of truce, the rider arrived and asked for the Lord of the Castle,
" What is you message?"asked the Lord.
Sir Howe, asks that you Free Gold from its chains and give back to the people what is rightfully theirs.

"Tell Sir Howe, my answer is still the same", Said the Lord.

The rider swung his horse to return and as he started to ride back. The Lord of the Castle said to an archer, "Kill Him"

The archers arrow took flight, hitting the unsuspecting messenger and he fell from his horse in to the emerald field.

"That should convey our answer firmly don't you think?", said the Lord of the Castle.
The riderless horse reached the lines of the Goldbugs.

A single arm was raised and with a forward motion lowered.
The first row of men stepped forward silently.
After some distance from the trees, a second row appeared and moved forward.
And again a third line appeared.

The army of Goldbugs were now crossing " The Field Of Years"
So named for the years Gold was held in chains.


PH in LA (07/31/02; 19:34:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 81991)
Two Years Into the Worst Financial Crash in History
http://www.larouchepub.com/other/2002/2929two_yrs_crsh.html

"With the worst financial and economic collapse in history now playing out with thinly veiled hysteria in the daily media reports, it is useful to remind your neighbors that what is happening is the tragic culmination of a process—economic, political, and cultural—which has been playing out for three decades...

"We are now two years into the worst market crash in world history, with the major stock markets already down some 50% from their peaks in 2000. The markets are now back to their 1997-98 levels, but carrying half a decade's more debt, leverage, and speculation. In market terms, we have crossed the peak and are now headed down the back side of a very steep mountain. How far and how fast we fall, is largely a matter of actions taken, or not taken, on fundamental economic policy. As long as the Bush Administration and the Federal Reserve maintain their Hooveresque "the economy is fundamentally sound" stance, we can expect sharp plunges, punctuated by futile attempts to bail out fictitious and unsalvageable market values.

"...The U.S. stock market bubble was actually a global phenomenon, financed in part by huge flows of investment capital into the country. Money poured into the United States during the go-go 1980s, though that flow ebbed a bit when the U.S. banking system went under (the Fed secretly took control of Citicorp and arranged shotgun marriages for the big banks) after the real estate market collapsed. To save the day, the financiers unleashed the derivatives market, unpayable debt was rolled over, and financial deregulation escalated. Changes in the tax codes allowed money that previously would have been paid in taxes to instead be gambled in the markets, and corporations used money that should have been invested in their business activities to support their stock price. The bubble soared, but the physical economy suffered, as health care, education, transportation, goods production, and research and development were all choked back in order to feed the bubble..."


steady (07/31/02; 19:34:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 81990)
i have a question!
I have read heard, that many companies have off balace book transactions. that got me thinking, if a company does it whats to keep a government from doing it. So is it possible governments do off balance sheet transactions? now if a government does do that, what would keep it from printing money off balance sheet for financial gian or even terror. Many currencies are not strong enough to compete directly with the dollar , but some can compete/dominate/influence curencies that are weaker than there own. i guess what im getting at can a government work to attack a currency to devalue it? u know just like how the feds intervien just enough to kick start the momentum on the stock market to trigger buying, why not do the same but in the opposite way with others currency ? if so could that be what is happening in s.America some foreign entity bent on the destruction of the us dollar attacking it indirectly by causing the domino effect in south america? heck why worry about the monroe doctrin,and the roosevelt coralary to it when u dont even need to send anyone over there just have the presses runnin to provide the ammo,and enough traders to short or do whatever they do to make it the notational value of a currency fall enough to cause failure and bingo, there goes the south america, one right after the other and the props holding the imf and the fed together disapear and its exposed for what it really is a ponzi scheme Is this possible? i would think it is when u really are dealing with monopoly money! just asking. does this sorta thing happen?

Black Blade (07/31/02; 19:32:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 81989)
SMOKING MEMO
http://www.nypost.com/business/53726.htm


Snippit:

Handwritten notes revealed at a congressional hearing yesterday seem to show senior Merrill Lynch officials were aware that a deal they cut with Enron was helping the now-defunct energy trader cook its books. Merrill Lynch's senior finance chief James Brown wrote on Dec. 12, 1999 that Merrill's tentative deal with Enron to invest in the so-called Nigerian Barge power generators represented "reputational risk i.e. aid/abet Enron income stmt [sic] manipulation." The note was scrawled on a fax cover sheet by Brown, just days before the deal was inked that handed Enron a cool $12 million for their bottom line. "The document is extremely damaging. It's a memo that is potentially incriminating," said John Coffee, securities law professor at Columbia University School of Law. "The documents showing that Merrill Lynch executives foresaw the risk that could be viewed as assisting Enron's fraud could lead prosecutors to say this is a knowing violation," Coffee added.


Black Blade: There's also a video taken by Merrill Lynch of former CFO Fastow giving a presentation on how to scam the cash offshore. It looks like Merrill Lynch is dead in the water if the Governmnet wants to pursue this, however, as large contributors of bribes, ….er, I mean campaign contributions, I wouldn't expect much more than a slap on the wrist for Merrill Lynch. In fact, ML shares were up for the day. Hmmm…



misetich (07/31/02; 19:16:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 81988)
SEC attacked anew over auditor conflicts of interest
http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/07/31/rtr682870.html
Snip:

WASHINGTON, July 31 (Reuters) - Dealing another blow to the besieged U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Democratic Rep. Ed Markey on Wednesday branded the regulator "inconsistent" and "dead wrong" in its handling of IBM's (nyse: IBM - news - people) bid to buy PricewaterhouseCoopers Consulting.
The Massachusetts congressman said PricewaterhouseCoopers <PWC.UL> should not have been allowed to serve as the computer giant's auditor while the two companies were negotiating the purchase of PwC's consulting arm.

"This ... is contrary to the 'get tough' attitude coming out of the SEC and only deepens investors' skepticism about the integrity of the financial information they receive," Markey said in a statement.
.............
But Markey said the agency had undermined its own efforts, just one day after President George W. Bush signed into law a bill limiting the range of consulting services auditors could offer their clients.

"Today we learn the SEC allowed an auditor to offer its client an entire consulting company. The SEC's decision was dead wrong," the congressman added.
...........
In buying the consulting arm of the world's largest accounting firm for $3.5 billion in cash and stock on Tuesday, IBM made its largest ever acquisition.

But Armonk, New York-based IBM is paying only a fraction of what its competitor Hewlett-Packard Co. (nyse: HPQ - news - people) bid in 2000 for the unit -- $18 billion -- before pulling out of talks.

Markey noted that PricewaterhouseCoopers was Hewlett-Packard's accountant during the 2000 maneuverings but in that case both companies had decided the audit firm could not be considered independent.

"The SEC's recent decision is inconsistent with the position the Commission took when PwC was negotiating with ... Hewlett-Packard, which calls into question its intention to aggressively monitor accounting industry practices," he said.

*************

Misetich

The more things change the more they stay the same. Pitts will soon join the Bone Pile!

Got gold?


Black Blade (07/31/02; 19:12:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 81987)
Mirant Made Accounting Errors
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A23452-2002Jul30.html

Energy Trader Hires Law Firm to Review Bookkeeping

Snippit:

Energy producer and trader Mirant Corp. said yesterday that "mistakes" in its 2001 financial statements caused it to overstate assets and liabilities for that year by as much as $253 million. Mirant said the company may have overstated natural gas inventories and accounts receivable -- both assets -- by $85 million and $68 million, respectively, last year. It said it also may have overstated accounts payable, a liability, by $100 million. The company noted that the amounts "represent a fraction of Mirant's $22.8 billion balance sheet."


Black Blade: Another one is begging off the August 14Th deadline by restating earnings. And the big revelation – "nonexistent natural gas reserves"!!! How many other natural gas companies have done the same and leave the US exposed to a potential energy crisis late this year or early next year? Apparently Enorn also had "phantom" NG supplies as well. Let's see here, "phantom" NG supply for "Phantom" trades for "phantom" offshore companies".Hmmm…

You don't think that the Gold traders are doing the same thing do ya? Nahhh..... ;-)



Waverider (07/31/02; 19:10:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 81986)
Rock, RobotGuy, Black Blade
You guys are amazing, and I sense the fortitude yet the resiliency of a willow tree in all of you. Your stories today remind me of a book I recently read - "The Alchemist" by Paulo Coelho. It's a short little novel set is Spain, Tangiers and the Egyptian desert, and is about the wisdom of listening to and following our hearts and dreams, and reading the omens strewn along life's path. What does this have to do with Gold? Everything and nothing...many of the Golden Treasures in life have nothing to do with the physical... Cheers!
Waverider


misetich (07/31/02; 19:06:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 81985)
Foreigners sell Japan stocks in July; repatriation
http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/07/31/rtr682968.html
Snip:

TOKYO, Aug 1 (Reuters) - Foreign investors were net sellers
of Japanese stocks in July for the first time since February,
Ministry of Finance data showed on Thursday, as U.S. institutions
repatriated funds to make up for losses on Wall Street.

The ministry said foreign investors sold 227.3 billion yen
($1.90 billion) of Japanese shares during the week of July 22-26,
bringing their net selling so far in July to about 402 billion
yen, with three trading days remaining.

The latest weekly figure was about 10 times the net selling
in the previous week when foreign investors dumped 21.2 billion
yen ($177 million) of Japanese stocks.

"I think this shows one of the driving factors behind the
dollar's rise to 120 yen," said Soichi Okuda, senior economist at
Aozora Bank. "There is no other reason to describe the jump."

****************
Misetich

We wait patiently for the next leg down in US stocks! More ammunination is being consumed -

They are fighting the markets and economic conditions!

Got gold?







sector (07/31/02; 18:17:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 81984)
Accounting controls on EU budget 'unreliable'
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1028126224771&p=1012571727085
Financial Times
By George Parker and Francesco Guerrera in Brussels
Published: July 31 2002 21:56 | Last Updated: July 31 2002 21:56

Accounting controls over the European Union's € 98bn budget have been criticised as insecure and unreliable in a scathing leaked paper from the EU's court of auditors.

The paper, obtained by the Financial Times, supports claims made by Marta Andreasen (pictured), the Commission's former chief accountant who was acrimoniously removed from her post in May after four months.

++++++++++++++++++++++

The whole European Union appears to be as corrupt as Wall Street, the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve.

It should come as no surprise to anyone here.

Ms. Andreasen must have made the fatal mistake of having integrity and telling the truth...too bad for her!


silvercollector (07/31/02; 17:45:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 81983)
Towny
Canuck is out of town for a couple weeks, was talking to him today. He wants to know if the deal is a go?

silvercollector


R Powell (07/31/02; 17:21:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 81982)
ski
Concerning POS,
Only new fundamental change is that the silver purchace bill for government buying for the coin program was signed last Tuesday. USA has become a buyer after years of supplying the mint from stores built up after WW2.

The breakdown in price is probably the trend following big speculative fund managers bailing out of what was an extremely large long position. We may see this continue until this selling is exhausted, hopefully soon.
What wilderness is entertaining you?
Watch that dome of high pressure over heartland America. Drought?
Rich


Rock (07/31/02; 16:35:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 81981)
Thanks for the feed-back Blade.
I know what you mean when you say you want to get paid what your worth. But like yourself I could afford to take the hit in salary to change careers at least for now. Nothing like a little extra time off however to take care of oneself. Not everyone can afford such a luxury as most Americans have to get right back into the system to keep those bills paid.

I'm by no means rich either, I'm just your average joe sixpack. I live simple like someone here at the round table once said. I learned to live within my means and the way I set up my program was to be able to operate at full capasity on either the wife or my income. That way if an accident or layoff were to occured with one of us we would be covered thus avoiding the panic button.

When my wife lost her job she bounced right back into the market like Robot Guy's intending to do. She started back looking for work immediately, even applying for positions she had never held before. She was probaby back to work within 2 weeks after she got the ax starting out part time at one company with free training then after getting experience in a new trade she went full time at another bigger company where got paid more and had gobenifits.

As for me when I was added to the bone pile 9 months ago I enjoyed some special time for myself and I still am. When George W added a three month extension to unemployment benifits I told the wife, guess what honey I got three more months of vacation!

Theres a really good book that I read quite a few years ago written by Vicky Robin and her husband and the book is called "Your Money Or Your Life." True story, Her husband was a big wall street investor and he spoke of how jumping through all the hoops wasn't worth trading off his life for. In other words he had the Mercedes Benz, he lived in an expensive high rise condo in Manhattan, you know the secinaro.

Bottom line after he added up all his expenses against his earnings and so forth and the "time" he spent to keep the ship afloat he said he averaged about $3.00 an hour. Anyway he ended up quiting his job and selling all his material wealth, got a little home and now he rides his bicycle to work down at the corner store. He echos what someone said here, "Live Simple," you'll sleep better and live a more riching an more enjoyable life.

It was really a good book the way he crunched the numbers and all but since I read that book over 7 years ago I can't remember some of the other details. What I really took from that book is to live within your means and don't keep adding to your toy pile unless you can afford to pay it up front because working as a slave to the banking system to make those credit card payments isn't worth it.

Take care,

Rock


misetich (07/31/02; 16:34:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 81980)
Pimco giant Bill Gross sours on corporate bonds-and worries that companies' inability to affordably raise cash threatens the health of the U.S. economy.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/020731/financial_pimco_gross_2.html
Snip:
By Jonathan Stempel
NEW YORK, July 31 (Reuters) - The world's most powerful bond mutual fund manager has soured on corporate bonds, and worries that companies' inability to affordably raise cash threatens the health of the U.S. economy.
Gross, a managing director at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, says he bought corporate bonds too soon, and got singed.

"We ... make mistakes -- witness our premature entry into energy and telecom bonds in order to cyclically increase our corporate debt exposure," he said in his monthly investment outlook, completed before Tuesday and posted on Pimco's Web site. "We at least have the common sense to recognize a long-term sucker's bet when we see one.

The $3.9 trillion corporate bond market, he said, "is close to full tilt, half frozen.... It's just fair warning that with a tilting corporate bond market, the economy itself may not be far behind."

................
TOO EARLY

Gross worried that corporate bond yields may need to rise because lending banks have changed from being risk takers to risk avoiders.

"The banks' retreat from the corporate lending arena has left a void that will take time and higher yields to fill," he said.

He said he still likes the investment-grade bonds of Sprint, the No. 3 U.S. long-distance phone company, though their price had fallen to 60 cents on the dollar from 95 cents. Sprint's 10-year notes rose to about 76 cents on Tuesday after the company said it obtained a $1.5 billion bank credit line.

Though "double-A" consumer products giants Gillette Co. (NYSE:G - News) and Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE:PG - News) this week sold bonds yielding less than 4.4 percent, Gross said many lower investment-grade companies would have to shell out double-digit yields to sell bonds, while even some high-rated companies may have trouble selling.

This, he said, might sour financial markets and hurt the U.S. economy, making it harder for Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to maneuver, with short-term interest rates already at a 40-year low.

****************

Misetich

Lets repeat that again shall we:

The $3.9 trillion corporate bond market, he said, "is close to full tilt, half frozen.... It's just fair warning that with a tilting corporate bond market, the economy itself may not be far behind."

Banks and bondinvestors have become RISK AVERSE -

How much more can the financial system take without succumbing?

Got gold?


ski (07/31/02; 16:19:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 81979)
Help please
Hello everyone, Duty calls and I have been in the wilderness for the past week and a half. I have noted that the POS has taken a severe dive in recent days. Could someone briefly tell me what happened as I am expected back and don't have time to do any digging now?? Thanks



misetich (07/31/02; 16:18:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 81978)
Summary of Commentary on Beige Book - July 2002
http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/BeigeBook/2002/20020731/default.htm
Snip:

Labor markets were characterized as slack but relatively stable in most Districts; New York and Kansas City indicated some softening, but Richmond noted modest improvement. The pace of wage increases generally remained subdued, but many Districts noted continued escalation of non-wage benefit costs, most notably health insurance. Prices of raw materials were generally stable, though prices of steel, plastics, and lumber have risen noticeably. Prices of finished goods and services were generally flat.
............

There were spotty reports of increased hiring in particular occupations, such as engineers, skilled nurses, skilled construction workers, and mortgage processors. While most Districts indicated little change in labor markets, New York and Kansas City reported some softening since the last Beige Book, and most contacts in the Cleveland and Minneapolis Districts indicated that they had no plans to increase hiring.
...............
However, there were widespread reports of escalating non-wage benefit costs.
..............

Prices for most goods and services were steady, with the widely noted exceptions of insurance (particularly health insurance), building materials (particularly lumber), steel, plastics and paper.
**************

Misetich

Costs are rising - inflation remains "subdued" - corporations earnings also remain "subdued"
Hirings remaain 'subdued"

It is this type of report that must make Walter Mitty's graduates - O'Neil, Greenspan, Bush, Lindsay - optimistic

Will foreingers keep on pouring funds in the US? Will they disinvest US stocks and bonds?

Got gold?



Cavan Man (07/31/02; 16:11:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 81977)
".....the foreigner must be willing to accept dollars for wahatever he is selling."
THE EUROPEANS
by Bill Bonner


Among the obscure financial reports that have more pages
than readers is one from the Bank for International
Settlements. The staff economists had toted up the
figures and found a massive black hole in the universe
of money movements. In order for one country to run a
current account deficit some other country must run a
surplus. Money flows between nations is a zero sum
business. By definition, what goes into one set of
national accounts has to come out of another.

It is impossible for the entire Earth to run a current
account deficit, just as it is impossible for everyone
to have above-average income or uncommonly smart
children. And yet, there it is, according to James
Grant, a negative $213 billion worldwide net current
account deficit, as if the money had been wired to Mars.
We draw no particular conclusion or inference from this
bizarre figure, nor do we take any offense. The missing
billions are probably in a desk drawer in the accounting
department of the BIS for all we know. Besides, $213
billion does not seem like a lot of money to lose in a
$31 trillion world economy.

More interesting in the BIS report were the relative
figures - the amounts of money changing hands from one
nation to the other owned from one nation to the next.
For there, the numbers are bigger...and likewise
preceded by minus signs. In 1997, the U.S. ran a current
account deficit of $140 billion. That is the difference
in the goods and services sold by Americans to the rest
of the world and those sold to them. By 2002, the
deficit had risen to $435 billion.

Both sides took it as a fair trade. Americans got
automobiles, champagne and geegaws. Foreigners got
dollars. But as Americans bought more and sold less, the
rest of the world accumulated dollars. By the end of
2001, foreigners had $9 trillion in U.S. dollar assets,
reports Dr. Kurt Richebacher.

Pity the poor Europeans, says Richebacher. As much as
Americans might have admired their New Economy of the
late '90s...the Europeans admired it even more. Now they
are the major holders of dollar-based assets outside of
America...and are stuck with them.

The Frenchman cannot sell dollars to Americans - for
what would Americans exchange for them; all they have is
more dollars! All the foreigners can do is trade their
greenbacks amongst themselves, like used polyester cargo
pants...and hope they don't go out of fashion.

But who knows? The Frankfurter banker...the baker in
Milan...or the fund manager in Amsterdam might begin to
favor corduroy...or maybe tweed. Why he might do so is
the subject of the rest of today's letter.

"The single worst threat not only to the U.S. economy
and its financial markets but also to the world economy,
implying to foreign investors huge currency losses on
top of their huge houses in stocks and bad loans,"
writes Richebacher, is a "looming dollar disaster."

"When the dollar's plunge develops in earnest," he
predicts, "it will...be brutal for the U.S. financial
markets, which have become hostage to massive foreign
capital inflows."

Foreign-owned assets in the U.S. rose by $895 billion in
2001 after increasing by more than $1 trillion in the
year before. Much of this money went into stocks,
providing "the single strongest support for America's
stock market during these critical years..."

The poor Europeans were clueless.

"No European would ever dream of taking equity out of
his home," says Richebacher. "And Europeans don't have
credit cards either...they just have debit cards."

Nor could the eurolander imagine what would happen to
him next. His Nasdaq stocks lost 70% of their value. His
S&P stocks fell by 40%. Even his Dow stocks dropped 30%
of their value. And on top of that, the dollar fell off
by another 15%.

He thought he had placed his money in the strongest,
most flexible, and most dynamic economy on the globe.
(The poor frog's own economy seemed as stiff as a dead
republican. It was so rigid, regulated and soooo
'80s...as G.W.B. reminded the English, he didn't even
have words in his language to describe the
entrepeneurial, laissez-faire economy of America in the
'90s).

And then he discovered that the U.S. companies he bought
had cooked their books and went bankrupt...and that the
U.S. federal budget surpluses that were supposed to reach
"as far as the eye can see" disappeared overnight...and
that G.W.B. had gone a little mad in his War Against
Terror...that the suburbs were a wasteland...the food
was inedible...the average American was too fat and too
much in debt...

...and heck, he didn't look good in cargo pants anyway!

And so, he begins to feel like "un pigeon" - a French
fool, a Danish dupe, a Czech chump, or a Polish patsy.

What will he do now?

Not only does he finance the Americans' current account
deficit - running at about $1.5 billion per day - he
also bankrolls Americans' investments abroad. Europeans
are not the only ones who may want to flee dollar
assets. But with no current account surplus, Dr.
Richebacher explains, Americans can only diversify into
foreign holdings by importing capital from foreigners.
Unless the BIS really has discovered a black hole in the
system of international capital flows, the foreigner
must be willing to accept dollars for whatever he is
selling.

"These U.S. foreign investments amounted to $439.6
billion in 2001, after $581 billion in 2000,"
Richebacher elaborates. "There results a need for
capital inflows into the U.S. between $900-$1,000
billion per year just to keep the dollar stable and the
U.S. financial system afloat.

"Our nightmare is that continuous bad news about the
U.S. economy and an associated continuous fall of the
dollar will sooner or later induce a significant part of
foreign investors and lenders to pull out of the
dollar."

Here in Paris, we Americans sleep soundly - even at our
desks. But all around us, heaving, tossing and
turning...Europeans must fear for their money.
Will they switch from polyester to tweed...if only to
sleep more soundly? We think so.

Zzzzzzzzz,

Bill Bonner



misetich (07/31/02; 16:07:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 81976)
Japanese electronics brace for long recession
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1028039815675&p=1012571727088
Snip:

By Mariko Sanchanta in Tokyo
Published: July 31 2002 9:55 | Last Updated: July 31 2002 9:55

Japan's biggest consumer electronics companies reported mixed first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, although most cautioned that Japan's recovery from economic recession would be prolonged.
..............
The company, however, warned that the "employment environment and personal income situation are continuing as severe as ever" in Japan, and that the country was moving toward a "limited recovery". Sharp left its full-year forecast for the year unchanged, at Y37bn.

**************

Misetich

From one continent to ANOTHER - we find global economic growth not meeting expectations

Got gold?


misetich (07/31/02; 15:59:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 81975)
Manufacturing Firms Report Marked Slowing of Growth
http://www.phil.frb.org/media/newsreleases/071802.html
Snip:
July Survey...
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Senior Economic Analyst Mike Trebing summarized the survey:

"Results from our Business Outlook Survey this month suggest a slower pace of growth in our region's manufacturing sector than that indicated in June. Nearly all of the broad indicators remained positive, but declined from their high readings in the previous month. Employment indexes, however, remained negative. Overall expectations remain optimistic despite the reported slowing this month."

*************
Misetich

"Overall expectations remain optimistic despite the reported slowing this month."

Must be a graduate of the Walter Mitty school of economics

Got gold?


misetich (07/31/02; 15:54:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 81974)
Empire State Manufacturing Survey-indicates that conditions in New York State's manufacturing sector grew worse from June to July.
http://www.ny.frb.org/rmaghome/regional/mfg_survey/index.html
Snip:

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions in New York State's manufacturing sector grew worse from June to July. The survey's main indicator, the general business conditions index, fell from 12.7 to -5.5, dropping below zero for the first time since December 2001.

*********

Misetich

The Bush Economic Team + Greenspan predicts US economy to expand 3 1/2 to 4 % in 2nd half 2002- in fairness they didn't see a recession coming in 2001 either- and just last week they were boasting that the recession lasted only one quarter

The markets must have doubts on their leadership and creditability.

Got gold?


misetich (07/31/02; 15:41:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 81973)
You Can't Say That!Western banks, you may, think have enough on their plates – what with nearly one in four Telecom junk bonds,
http://www.capital-insight.com/dailyExecutive.asp
Snip:

Western banks, you may, think have enough on their plates – what with nearly one in four Telecom junk bonds, and one in ten of all other speculative grade securities, having exploded this year - implying who knows what, in addition, for the actual worth of the loans which supplement these.

With concerns also rising about the tottering US power sector, together with commercial real estate to worry about, not to mention airlines and the suspect condition of most of the giant car companies, adding Brazil to this Bonfire of the Vanities might seem a little superfluous therefore, but, never fear.

***************

Misetich

The US jobless recovery has "stumbled" in the 2nd qtr - and may get worse (double dip recession) going forward as the carnage of last weeks global stock market trillions trim has diminished consumer confidence -

How long can the almighty US $ holdup?

Got gold?




misetich (07/31/02; 15:30:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 81972)
Upturn? What Upturn? Tech execs expect their customers to keep a lid on spending until next year
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/02_31/b3794080.htm
Snip:

But the high-tech bounceback--which tech execs and analysts widely expected in the second half of 2002--is behind schedule. More than half of chief information officers who took part in a June Morgan Stanley survey don't see the economy improving until 2003. Only four months before, only 16% of CIOs felt that way. Moreover, more than half of corporate IT buyers say they will conserve their tech budgets for the rest of '02, according to a survey released July 11 by Goldman, Sachs & Co. And on July 23, Merrill Lynch & Co. downgraded the stocks of 11 chip companies because it felt they had been too bullish about potential orders. "The change in sentiment has been dramatic," says Michael Shulman, director of research at ChangeWave Research. "It even calls into question the kind of growth you'll get in the first half of 2003."
.............
With the economy on the mend, why the trouble in Techland? Because demand for high-tech products simply hasn't materialized as expected. The uncertain economy and continued market woes are prompting companies and consumers alike to put major buys on hold. "There is just not a lot of business being done in the IT market," says Thomas M. Siebel, CEO of Siebel Systems. "We don't see any reason why it should get better in Q3 and Q4."
.............
This all points to tech spending slightly outpacing nominal gross domestic product in 2003, according to Goldman Sachs. But hopes for a recovery any earlier than that are fading fast.

******************

Misetich

The "goal posts" are being moved once again - the recovery in tech has been post-poned once again to ANOTHER year - 2003 -

The stock markets are overvalued. ANOTHER downward re-adjustment is likely to occur.

The stock market bulls are unshaken "determined" - keeping on playing the game that worked well from 96 to 99 - incorporating rosy scenarios in stock values - the "good times" are over - yet the allure of the easy buck is powerful-
It is that attitude that makes them easy pickings for the bears as economic reality hits home

Got gold?



misetich (07/31/02; 15:13:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 81971)
Major airlines take staggering blow to bottom line
http://www.usatoday.com/travel/news/2002/2002-07-30-big-six.htm
Snip:

By Marilyn Adams, USA TODAY
While low-fare airlines keep growing, life has been brutal this year for the Big Six carriers.
............
The Big Six have laid off thousands of workers, cut flights, parked planes, halted commissions to travel agents and cut salaries. Four recent attempts to raise fares failed when at least one airline didn't match the increase.

This month, most major carriers except Southwest and Alaska posted large second-quarter losses. Revenue is off 20% from a year ago.

***************

Misetich

No economic recovery in airline industry - consumers are opting for low cost fares - business travel is down- as BB would say, the picture is "Grim"

The Bush Economic Team is losing credibility - just last week O'Neil emphasized that recession lasted 1 Qtr, Greenspan, Bush etc have stressed sound economic fundamentals - yet the US economy growth with the exception of Q1 2002 has been in negative or little growth,( on average about 2%) for the last 6-7 quarters.

How long will foreigners keep on financing the US?

Got gold?




Got gold?



Aquarian (07/31/02; 15:08:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 81970)
thanks white rose

I understand what you're saying, while i'm not a financial expert--i completely understand the game is one of smoke and mirrors (euphemistically) or more simply of lies (pejoratively). i also understand the our environment is subject to constant change and that those changes, however slight, could crash the game. however, would not a grand scale restatement of earnings by a number of companies be enough to trigger the collapse of investor confidence? i guess the question i'm really asking is this: obviously there has been speculation that the accounting irregularity problems are not just limited to the firms already outed, but should we lend credence to this speculation? does anyone know, to a reasonable degree, that the accounting problems are in fact widespread and not just limited to "bad apples"?


misetich (07/31/02; 14:49:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 81969)
Fed Report: Economic Growth Modest
http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=businessnews&StoryID=1276861
Snip:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said the U.S. economy grew modestly in recent weeks but the job market showed relatively little improvement, underscoring the recovery's sluggishness.
...........
"District reports suggest that the economy expanded modestly in recent weeks, with an uneven performance across sectors,"
...........
"Labor markets were characterized as slack but relatively stable in most Districts ... The pace of wage increases generally remained subdued," the Fed said.

.............
Retail sales were described as "mixed," with four regions reporting weakness and five seeing strength. Overall, retailers were optimistic, however, about the near-term sales outlook.

Misetich

The euphoria expressed by O'Neil (who claimed just last week "if you want to call 1qtr of negative growth, a recession, go ahead", Greenspan, Bush ( the economy is sound) appear hot air.

The Bush Economic Team has lost all credibility. Things may get worse before they get better.

Got gold?



White Rose (07/31/02; 14:46:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 81968)
What is the trigger point?
Most players in the financial field have some idea that there is only smoke and mirrors holding up confidence. It would only take a modest event that showed that the game could not go on to really cause a reaction. This event may be significant or very minor. I suspect that it will be an event that was not forseen, that shows that there is no "insurance" against disaster. Then there is a rush to the exits.

For example, lets say that we do something major against Iraq very soon (in the next 2 weeks). This may cause a credible revolution in Saudi Arabia. If the US goes to war against Iraq and Saudi Arabia, the reaction in the Middle East and the world may not be containable. Yet Bush is stupid enough (and/or the American empire is in such dire straits) to try something like that.

My gut feeling is that when confidence fails, it will fail because of something so minor, even we will not recognize it as significant until afterwards.


Black Blade (07/31/02; 14:45:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 81967)
Re: Rock and Robot Guy

Hey, when life tosses you a lemon, make lemonade (or a couple of shots of tequila). Since I have nothing better to do right now, I am just enjoying this time off to get into shape (health maintenance), get in some fishing, hopefully a lot of hunting, and possibly some skiing. Why to listen to the Trolls and Primates on CNBC we should all be working ourselves into an early grave with the "robust" economy. Anyway, I am not concerned as I always say: get out of debt while you can, stash cash for expenses, have a secure stash of precious metals for portfolio insurance, and store up nonperishable food and basic necessities. I can get by for a long time without much problem though my more extravagant lifestyle has been slightly curtailed. I could work for less if I wanted, however, I am determined to get what I am worth. Anyway, I am enjoying my time "away from the office" as I was getting burned out. Now it's time for less work and more play. I even have considered taking a few classes at the local college (mostly for fun) and possibly taking up another line of work, at least until the economy improves. I hope that all goes well for you guys. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Off to the gym!


Black Blade (07/31/02; 14:43:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 81966)
GE to expense stock options
http://www.msnbc.com/news/788149.asp

Snippit:

July 31 — General Electric Corp. said Wednesday it will treat employee stock options as an expense beginning in the current quarter, as it announced several other changes in its corporate-governance practices.

Black Blade: Companies are falling over themselves to expense options (as they should!). However, some like Cisco and Microsoft won't as they would show no profit if they did, and if they also did not engage in "synthetic leasing" they would be in worse trouble. Don't expect several companies to follow up by expensing options. There would be a serious drop in earnings if they did. Hey – an amazing bit of magic on Wall Street today – they managed to pull another rabbit outta their hat.



misetich (07/31/02; 14:33:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 81965)
Brazil's real tumbles 5 pct, hits new trading low
http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/07/31/rtr682536.html
Snip:

SAO PAULO, Brazil, July 31 (Reuters) - Brazil's embattled currency plunged to new record lows on Wednesday, battered by a cash crunch as dollars remained in tight supply.

The real <BRBY> sank 5 percent to end the day at 3.470 per U.S. dollar, its eighth straight record low closing price. In early-afternoon trading, the currency tumbled nearly 9 percent to an all-time low of 3.605, its weakest point since it was introduced in 1994. Its slide also hurt currencies across Latin America.
The currency market took a beating again today," said Sandra Utsumi, chief economist at BES Investimento, a research firm in Sao Paulo. "The Central Bank intervened at least twice today, but it was almost the only source of dollars in the market."

Misetich

Lets stay on this TRAIL - its getting interesting

Got gold?


Aquarian (07/31/02; 14:20:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 81964)
possible trigger

i've heard rumors that the crash could come sometime before august 15th, when CEO's will be required to report adjusted earnings statements. what is everyone's take on this? is there any validity to this or could they avoid the truth just as they have before?


sector (07/31/02; 14:02:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 81963)
FBI Crack Terrorist SWAT Team at Work...Again
Suspect in Sept. 11 ID Case Flees
The Associated Press
Wednesday, July 31, 2002; 1:54 PM

PATERSON, N.J. –– A man who authorities said sold fake identification to two of the Sept. 11 hijackers apparently fled to Egypt Wednesday morning, hours before authorities raided his home and businesses, officials said.

Mohamad El Atriss, who has been living in Union Township, operated businesses in Paterson and Elizabeth where he sold the IDs, said Passaic County Sheriff Jerry Speziale. Authorities raided his home and business Wednesday afternoon and were told Atriss had took a flight from Newark to Egpyt earlier that morning, Speziale said.

Atriss sold a fake identification card to Khalid Almihdhar, who was on Flight 77 as it hit the Pentagon, and to hijacker Abdul Aziz Alomari from Flight 11, which hit the World Trade Center, Speziale said.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++

Let's see...the FBI is watching a suspect with direct connections to the 9/11 terrorists, a connection closer than Moussaui and they watch him get on a plane and leave the US.

Or maybe they were busy filling out FBI and FEMA paperwork between their doughnut breaks.

Also looks like the FBI has a mole that tips off terrorists as to coming raids.

What a country!


Rock (07/31/02; 13:59:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 81962)
Robot Guy added to bone pile.
Sorry to hear that Robot Guy. I was also added to that bone pile casualty list recently. Don't fret or fear my friend there's a reason for everything and it looks like its lifes timing for you to advance and take it to the next level.

Check this out, my wife got laid off after 18 years with the same company only two years before she would have received a pension check for life. Then the same year I was added to the bone pile after 10 years with the same company selling dental products.

My wife moved on and has been at her new carreer and job now for the past two years and as for me I said screw the sales pressure and stress and since I spend a lot of time at the healthclub like Sir Blackblade I became a personal fitness trainer at the ripe age of 47. Talk about change huh.

You know what they say, "when the going gets tough"....

Cheers anyway,

Rock


Operative (07/31/02; 12:43:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 81961)
U.S. considering bill to halt Saudi weapons sales
http://www.menewsline.com/stories/2002/july/07_31_2.html
Do you think such action will help bring down the price of oil? Also just read a story where we are applying pressure on Jordan. I suppose using some strongarm tatics will aid in building a coalition. Then again, does anyone else think the world may soon tire of our antics? This "fer or agin us" may raise the stakes at the international poker table. I truly wonder if we have the strong hand in the game or is it more like the phoeny accounting reports...a lot of hot air. I have the 5 G's. Now trying to acquire patience to have the 2 W's. Watch 'n Wait.

steady (07/31/02; 12:38:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 81960)
dominoes anyone?
SANTIAGO (Dow Jones)--Chile's peso closed sharply lower Wednesday because of the financial turbulence affecting Brazil and Uruguay, traders said.
The peso swiftly fell through CLP701.50 technical support after Uruguay declared a banking holiday to stave off the collapse of its banking system and Brazil's real again fell to historic lows.
Chile's currency ended at CLP706.50, very close to the intraday low.
Tuesday, it had changed hands at CLP698.90.
Worries about the financial stability of South American countries sparked safe-haven dollar buying, traders said.
"The uncertain climate in the region is affecting the flow of hard currency to South America and, despite the stability of the Chilean economy, you can clearly see that reflected in the peso's exchange rate," a Santiago trader said.
Fresh positive news for a possible free-trade agreement between Chile and the U.S. failed to prop up the peso as it had in previous sessions.
The crises in South America's biggest economies have kept the peso's international value at relatively low levels in recent weeks.
-By Stephan Kueffner, Dow Jones Newswires; 562-460-8546;


RobotGuy (07/31/02; 12:37:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 81959)
..., and grammar


RobotGuy (07/31/02; 12:34:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 81958)
Forgive my spelling mistakes, ..


RobotGuy (07/31/02; 12:30:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 81957)
Hello!,..?
I had guests until the wee hours of the morning, actually probably the late hours of the morning, I think the sun was coming up when I went to bed. Either way, I had way too much to drink, my eyes are still red.
RobotGuy is oficially unemployed, and I suppose there must have been reason to celebrate,.. either that or self destruction. I spent the entire day yesterday handing out resumes. Generally it isn't that difficult for someone in my trade to find work, but I think it will probabaly take a couple of weeks given market conditions. What exactly is happening??? DOW is down, U.S dollars are up, and POG took a drop?? I've got to stop sleeping in! Yes, yes,.. let's all have a pity party for RobotGuy,.. boo hoo.
Really now, what exactly is going on with the economy, I'm confused!!! Shouldn't gold be skyrocketing???
I recall seeing for the first time some positive incentive for buying gold yesterday on my national news station yesterday! They actually mentioned old yeller for the first time, and said that advisors are saying gold is going to be a shining investment over the next few quarters. So,.. my fellow canucks, what the %!*# is happening with our currency? I regret to say that I suggested buying gold a week ago, because now would be a much better time. I really hope I don't regret saying this a week from now.

Well wishes to all of the nobles here in this forum! May your investments serve you well!

RobotGuy.


Operative (07/31/02; 12:17:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 81956)
Lieberman to subpoena Rubin ??
http://www.washtimes.com/national/20020731-980104.htm
Would'nt count on it, but at least pressure is building to try and get Rubin to answer some questions. Only problem is as someone points out in the article is Rubin is very good at giving meaninless answers. Kind of reminds you of someone else so near to our pocketbooks,....uh..I mean hearts. <grin> You think Greenspan and Rubin practice on each other to invent new ways to hide the truth?

Rock (07/31/02; 12:03:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 81955)
Mr. G, I agree
Mr G What you stated as usual is true, knowledge is only good if you act on it. That's what separates the spectators from the movers and shakers. Have a fine day all!

Rock



USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (07/31/02; 11:48:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 81954)
With an eye to Uruguay and the South American Contagion
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

gold sovereigns
Empires rise and fall, as do economic freedoms,
and common fortunes fade away
like memories of common events.

Why should YOU buy gold Sovereigns today?

Because no one else will do it for you.

Centennial is here to help.
1-800-869-5115



Belgian (07/31/02; 11:44:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 81953)
@ Cavan Man
Yes Sir, he who has the Gold reserve, is holding the trump card. But it is an ambivalent one !
Rising or high interest rates are a contradictio in terminis with low and declining Goldprices. This globe was and still is in desperate need for very low interest rates, due to the suffocating debt load. The ECB must maneuver very carefully with its trump card. The dollar-block already lost her Gold(reserve)card (21.000 tonnes >>> 8.100 tonnes with ???) Using POG to force euro supremacy over the dollar is a two edged sword not to be played unnecessary and recklessly. Gold is the savior of last resort. Gold is easely available for all Eurolanders but this must NOT be encouraged at present. Americans must be kept off the Gold for their own (paper) sake. The colluding bankers consider their Gold/paper-management as a patriotic virtue and will certainly not understand or admit their wrongdoing.

The FED managed to get interest rates down from 17% to 4% over an extended period of more than 20 years ! All this for the general public's good. Individual Gold accumulation must be discouraged with all means as to not expose the IR falsifications, hiding the Permanent Depreciation of the reserve currency. Only those Giant Gold Gods are allowed to accumulate the Physical as they do it according to the state of the art without rocking the price into a clearly visible and INVITING (rising) trend.

Gold is by definition a "reserve" and must be used as such.
Generating wealth and preserving wealth are two different things. The dollar has most probably lost the bulk (if not all) of its (currency)reserves and is condemned to generate false wealth by printing more of the same. See the 30 year dollar/Swiss F -chart from the Aden sisters. This, while 13.000 tonnes of American Goldreserves were shipped to Euroland.

The ECB is prepared to compensate dollar loses with Goldreserves. But what with all these dollars circulating with the general public and business ? How do they have to compensate dollar loss ? How does one CB manages the correct flows into Gold and euro that wishes to expand at the appropiate rate ?

Gold-Derivatives are used to set the appropiate price of Gold for different central banks.Irregular and increasing, Physical uptake, is most disturbing in this type of price-setting (and price-timing). The Gold-Play remains a very subtle one. After the intense bullish Gold-Analyst parades on the financial media...POG was knocked down ! Do you think this was a co-incidence ? Haha...very, very subtle indeed !

Why does Gold and its derivatives "remain" so secretive ?
Is it because all central banks want to get rid of their Gold reserves as cheap as possible ? Elementary, no ?
So all those nonsense about CB sales/leases and other ranting about barbarous relic is very tiring. Central Banks fight currency wars with Gold and Interest Rates. High IR mean that your currency is increasingly depreciating, as is a rising POG, indicating that your currency is going down in purchasing power. The ECB and the FED operate through their banksters as real Godfathers do.

Gold will be allowed to be free as soon as all financial towels are thrown into the ring. When the debt-tide breaks the financial dams. When profits are an infinitesimal fraction of total debt. When the Western economies have to restart it all over. When the dollar has to give way.
So you want this to happen today ? Have you already enough Gold ? One has never enough of it as things stand today. Maniacal Paper Overvaluations ! Obscene Gold Undervaluation ! No recipe at all for an ordely exit.




steady (07/31/02; 10:27:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 81952)
havent you heard this somewhere before............ umm right here!
http://www.datekrt.newsalert.com/bin/story?StoryId=CpuDGWbWbrevxmdeZ
Economic Recovery is Jobless, Tenuous - Kelly Services Advance Comment On Friday's Unemployment Rate Announcement
PR Newswire - July 31, 2002 12:13

Carl Camden, president and chief operating officer of staffing provider Kelly Services and member of the Labor Advisory Committee of the Chicago Federal Reserve, offers the following advance comment on Friday's unemployment rate announcement by the U.S. Department of Labor. The current unemployment rate is 5.9 percent.
"If we are in an economic recovery, it's a jobless recovery at present. Our two prime concerns about this recovery are its fragility and the lack of strong demand for staffing services. It would not take much to stall or derail a weak recovery. It's quite possible that the recession, widely considered to be over, still has a pulse.




Mr Gresham (07/31/02; 09:43:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 81951)
YGM
"Gophers are tasty critters and all you need is a piece of string..."

Now, are we going to have to ask Randy to set up a special page ("The Gopher Trail"?) for gopher recipes?

Let's see if I can remember the "4 G's". God, Gold, Guns, & Gophers?

Or was it Generators? (Should I still hang on to that unused China Diesel gathering webs out in the barn?)

I know the management here probably doesn't want this to turn into an "Emergency Preparedness" discussion board, but with Randy's editing talents, already shown elsewhere, perhaps a page of links to some of the better sites compiling --what else? -- links to valuable information on, uh, "Independent Living" would be appreciated by many stopping by...


Mr Gresham (07/31/02; 09:25:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 81950)
Rock
Head can only take us so far. It is those who join in with heart, and feel free to speak up, who make this what it is. Thank You.

Cavan Man (07/31/02; 09:06:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 81949)
Belgian
The trump card is in their hand; or , is it?

Belgian (7/31/02; 08:24:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 81948)
*** SYSTEMIC COLLAPSE *** !!!???
A dramatic title for the catastrophic situation we are living at present. Euroland's financial markets, panicked !
Banks, Insurances, Funds and major brokerage houses sounded the alarmbells. Fear for systemic collapse was expressed loud and clearly. And guess what the heads of the financial brotherhood demand ? They want the ECB to act as the FED has been doing for quite some time now ! The ECB is urged/demanded and expected to INTERVENE on a substantial scale as to avoid...the unavoidable systemic collapse.
This is another piece of (indirect) circumstantial evidence on the enormous scale of FED intervention.

In other words...Euroland can't but compromise to a certain extend on the BAD management of the dollar block, for reasons of the past deep infiltration of the dollar-currency and the cross participation (holdings) of dollar assets (financial and other). A lot of "savings" fiat is at stake. Savings = postponed consumption and not wealth storage.

At present, the $ AND € must act together (condemned to) for an orderly progression to the financial exit. Read, proper valuations of all paper and tangibles. A gigantic job, thanks to the FED's orchestrations. It was (still is) the 7 years "abnormal" and artificial decline of Interest Rates, by the FED, that were/are the main reason for the total mess w're in. The financial brotherhood used/abused the declining IRs to organize higher and higher returns on their oceans of funds. Millions of western "savers" lured into THE financial trap. Lured into their own systemic collapse.

A larger and larger part of the general public starts to smell something rotten in the financial state (not of Denmark). Denial of the fraudulent interventions, evolve to acceptance of it and POG must be knocked down to avoid capitulation on the appearance of a very visible trend of non-confidence expressed in a rising POG-trend. WHO and HOW it is effectuated doesn't matter to me anymore. I'm convinced about the WHY'S and that's more than enough wisdom for a limited amount of grey cells.

At the peak of the panic (SM-slump), Tony Blair aluded on not invading Iraq and the colluding financial media issued statements on more crude output to come before OPEC's meeting. All hens on deck ! Today the dollar-promotion-machine is back to perform in all media shows and the exchange ranges are indoctrinated, again : €/$ >>> 0,95 if FED AND ECB co-operate...or 1,20 if ECB wants to evidence that its euro-management is better (less worse) than the dollar's.

Today, I see the euro using CB's Goldreserves (POG) to indicate that the ECB's management desires to be better, despite been taken hostage by the dollar's deep infiltration. POO seems to be the euro's ally (+ 1%).
Welteke wanted to copy the FED's management. Up until now, I do believe it is not going to happen on that same monstrous scale by the ECB. Note that (covered) inflation is creeping up in Euroland. Reason the more for the euro to outperform on its dollar/euro exchange rate in lockstep with crude's price.

Can the FED and ECB organize an orderly re-balancing of their respective currency and safeguard saver's money (fiat) at the same time ? And does this go together with genuine economic-supportive management ? Hope you don't mind, me, saying : FORGET IT !!!
Thanks financial fraternity for having us robbed at the paper-gun's point. My Gold jacket is bullet free ?


The Hoople (7/31/02; 08:20:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 81947)
FCC: WorldCom might be able to unplug web
WSJ 7/31 snippit: The nation's top telecommunications regulator said the government might be unable to prevent WorldCom Inc. from abruptly terminating its Internet services, prompting calls in Congress for potentially sweeping legislation to expand the Federal Communications Commission's authority.

Hoople: Does this concern anybody else? WorldCom delivers over half of all internet trafic. What better way to silence sites such as our trusty USAGOLD ? Expanding FCC authority would be an added bonus treat to fascist thinking. This seems ominous and worth following in the days ahead. Better enjoy free thought (what's left of it) while we still have it.


The Hoople (7/31/02; 07:57:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 81946)
Pointers from Putin?
5 consecutive quarterly GDP's revised downward. What are the odds of that? Methinks Bush got some pointers from those meetings with Vladimir Putin on Russian style economic reporting. Maybe a little help from comrades Rubin and AG.

Rock (7/31/02; 07:28:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 81945)
The Coin that never was mine as quoted by Steady.
That blew my mind that a single coin, just one Double Eagle gold coin could be worth 7.5 million dollars. My question is why then is it unreasonable to think that gold in general can't take a mild spike to $10,000 an ounce? Thats nothing compared to 7.5 million for 32 grms of gold or however many grams are in a troy ounce.

Meanwhile, White Rose (msg 81852) your not a kook my friend, you are trying like the rest of us here to steer those you know and care about into a truthful direction. I remember Y2K not to get mixed up with one of our notorious posters YGM, I took a verbal beating for stocking up on food, water ect for Y2K.

But my wife never questioned or doubted the decisions I made, not only concerning Y2K but also adding PM's to our porfolio which was quite costly but now that all is said and done I don't regret (nor does the wife) one decision I made because we can sleep a little easier at night knowing if we wake up one morning with a stock market crash for example or no pure water to drink because the water was poisened by some crazy terrorist that at least we can buy some time and avoid a population panic of sorts.

Serria Madre (I like that name) on a post you recently wrote a few days ago (I forgot the msg number) you were speaking pretty profoundly on the subject of life and why things happen and is "chance" involved?

You asked a hard question for some to answer and an easy one for others to answer.
For me the answer to that question comes down to your theology. "let the wise listen and add to their learning" proverbs 1:5. The answer my dear at least from my understanding of the Bible is that there is no such thing as chance because when you have a soverign God like the Bible teaches and Christians believe nothing gets by God without his divine authority meaning there is a purpose and reason for everything under the heavens even if we don't humanly understand it.

Ok enough preaching for one day. Hey all, thanks again for all the free intelligence I have gained from this fourm. I could list at least ten names or more of brilliant individuals I have learned from on this site. I don't have to list those names because everyone who reads USA Gold knows full well who the big hitters are at the round table and I'm darn glad to be able to absorb at least some of the crumbs of truth that fall into my lap.

Thanks again,

Rock


Black Blade (7/31/02; 07:14:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 81944)
Bureau of Economic Analysis - GDP Press Release
http://www.bea.doc.gov/bea/newsrel/gdpnewsrelease.htm

The long version of the GDP data is available (see link). The percent change at an annual rate in real GDP was revised down from 1.3 percent to -0.6 percent for the first quarter of 2001, was revised down from 0.3 percent to -1.6 percent for the second quarter of 2001, and was revised up from -1.3 percent to -0.3 percent for the third quarter of 2001.

We were right all along! The data paints a very ugly picture. In a word - "Grim", actually two words - "Very Grim".

- Black Blade


Graefin (7/31/02; 07:07:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 81943)
Sweet 16...
Willkommen Molly! This little Gräfin grew up in South Dakota (Sioux Falls and a long time ago when Senator Daschle was still wet behind the ears), but now I live in Deutschland! Welcome aboard!
Peace!
- Gräfin


misetich (7/31/02; 06:41:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 81942)
Europe's energy firms meet as U.S. credit woes bite
http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/07/31/rtr681751.html
Snip:

By Stuart Penson

LONDON, July 31 (Reuters) - Energy firms from across Europe met in London on Wednesday to swap views on proposed changes to gas and power trading terms as companies throughout the region fought to cut their exposure to crisis-hit U.S.traders.

In a move prompted by last year's collapse of Enron <ENRNQ.PK>, traders discussed draft plans to standardise methods of calculating net trading positions between counterparties and coping with contract defaults, industry sources said.
The meeting, called by industry umbrella group the European Federation of Energy Traders (EFET), came as concerns about the stability of U.S. traders, particularly Dynegy (nyse: DYN - news - people), Williams (nyse: DYN - news - people) and Aquila (nyse: DYN - news - people) sent jitters through European gas and power markets still recovering from the demise of Enron.

"It's panic stations out there for some people," said the trading manager at a large investment bank. "
.............
Dynegy and Williams, hampered by sliding credit ratings in a crisis of confidence sparked by Enron's demise, have been forced to halt most of their European trading as counter parties scrutinize contracts and ask for extra credit guarantees.
.............
Europe's energy market descended into chaos last December after Enron's European arm defaulted on hundreds of gas and power contracts.

Confusion followed as traders argued over which method should be used to calculate their net exposure to Enron -- how much they owed Enron, and how much Enron owed them.

PricewaterhouseCoopers is in dispute with several energy companies across Europe over issues including net exposure to the bankrupt trading giant, according to industry sources.

Copyright 2002, Reuters News Service

Misetich

Who is the next Enron to get caught?

Got gold?


Black Blade (7/31/02; 06:41:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 81941)
GDP Revisions

Second quarter only 1.1% - much lower than expected. Revised for last quarter is 1% lower as well (5% vs. 6.1%). Market futures are dropping fast! The last several quarters are significantly lower showing that the recession was worse than we were told. There were three negative quarters! The Primates on Wall Street were lying to the bipedal hominids all along (gee what a surprise). They were constantly denying that there was a recession at all. This proves that the primates that were trotted out by the media Trolls were nothing but liars. Of course we here were not fooled as we contested the tripe they presented on a daily basis. Well, there it is – the market has been weaker and the economy was (and still is) in a deepening recession.

- Black Blade


misetich (7/31/02; 06:28:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 81940)
Are our investments secure?The Life Insurance industry in the UK is facing an unprecedented combination of falling stock markets and tightening margins.
http://www.creditman.biz/uk/members/news-view.asp?newsviewID=808&id=1&mylocation=News&chksrc=NNow4251
Snip:

Jul 31 2002
An Ernst & Young survey into the Life Insurance market throws up some uncomfortable home truths for many of the main players.

The Life Insurance industry in the UK is facing an unprecedented combination of falling stock markets and tightening margins. Consolidation in the market place is inevitable and is likely to be welcomed by regulators.

The Ernst & Young 2001 Capital & Solvency Review of UK Life Insurance companies reveals another significant reduction in the free asset ratios of 31 of our leading with-profit offices. Excess assets have reduced from £80bn in 1999 to £55bn in 2000 and £34bn in 2001. Free asset ratios have reduced to an average of 7% of liabilities compared to 18% in 1999. Falling equity markets worldwide have driven this decline.

The decline in stock markets has encouraged companies to turn to alternative forms of capital – £13bn of it – that help mask what is in reality an even more serious decline in free assets. The FSA has launched an investigation into the reliance of Life Companies on the use of subordinated debt, contingent loans, financial reinsurance and implicit items.

What does this mean for the policyholder – are our investments secure?

***************

Misetich

Got gold?


misetich (7/31/02; 06:23:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 81939)
Goldman Sachs Tells Investors to Boost Stock Holdings (Update1)
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Stock%20Market%20World&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=world_stocks&s=APUedERaQR29sZG1h
Snip:


Frankfurt, July 31 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman, Sachs & Co. told clients to raise their holdings of global stocks because equities are likely to rebound from recent losses as economies and earnings recover and companies step up share buyback programs.

Investors should buy shares until they represent 65 percent of their portfolios, up from its previous recommendation of a 60 percent holding, Goldman said. The broker cut its recommended bond holdings, without giving details.
...........
``We believe global equities are very attractively valued,'' said Goldman analysts Neil Williams, Alain Kerneis and Joseph Hickey in a note to investors. Stocks may also gain given the outlook for inflation and interest rates and as U.S. pension funds switch into stocks, they said.
.............
Phone-equipment, telecommunications, computer-related and insurance stocks may be the best performers in a global stock market rebound, the U.S. bank said. Goldman prefers stocks in emerging markets, the U.S. and Japan to their European counterparts.

Misetich

Chronology of events

To July 23 - Global stock markets suffer heavy losses

Wednesday - July 24 secret meeting of Feds, O'Neil, investment bankers, brokers

Wed July 24 to July 29 - US markets make "stunning comeback" almost 1000 Dow points
Gold and gold shares take pounding

July 29 - JP Morgan recommends purchases of Global stock markets

July 31 - Goldman Sachs -recommends purchases of Global stock markets

It appears an "orchestrated' effort - Custer's last stand-

Got gold?


misetich (7/31/02; 06:01:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 81938)
The Revenge of Reality
http://www.mises.org/fullarticle.asp?control=1007&month=46&title=The+Revenge+of+Reality&id=46
Snip:
by Frank Shostak
With the recent meltdown in stock prices, some economists have said that there is no need to be concerned because the stock market does not reflect what is happening to the economy. (Curiously enough, when the stock market was going up, it was held by most experts to be the leading indicator of a strong economy.)
..............
Furthermore, neither corporate scandals nor corporate failures are the main causes of the current stock market turbulence; these are just the symptoms of the disease brought about by the loose monetary policy of the central bank.

A fall in the rate of growth of money M1 adjusted for sweeps and nominal economic activity, i.e., excess money M1 points to more difficulties ahead for stocks (see chart).

...............
In this regard, history provides us with an important reminder. The excess money M1 rate of growth accurately captured the October 1929 stock market crash.

...............
It also accurately captured the October 1987 stock market crash.

.............
Whenever a central bank loosens its monetary stance, it sets in motion an economic boom by means of diverting real funding from wealth-generating activities toward various false activities that a free, unhampered market would not facilitate otherwise. When monetary pumping slows, this also slows down or puts to an end the diversion of funding toward false activities, and that, in turn, undermines their existence. In short, the trigger to boom-bust cycles is central bank monetary policies.

The severity of a recession is dictated by the intensity of the previous boom that was brought about by monetary pumping and the associated artificial lowering of interest rates--i.e., by the percentage of "false activities" relative to total activities. The larger this percentage is, the more severe the recession will be, since more liquidations will have take place.

..............
Also, the interest rate differential between the yield on the 10-year T-Bond and the yield on the three-month T-Bill narrowed to 2.7 percent, down from 3.1 percent at the end of June and 3.6 percent at the end of March. This narrowing in the differential doesn't bode well for economic activity in the months ahead (see chart).

.............
Moreover, based on a prolonged slide in the income-to-consumption ratio, we suspect that the pool of real funding could be in trouble (see chart).

...............
The June production data show that the capital goods-to-consumer goods ratio stood at 1.34 against a similar figure in May. This ratio would have to fall to around 0.8 before a sustained economic recovery could emerge (see chart).
.............
The severity of distortions in the economy is also depicted by growing debt. The outstanding consumer debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 0.753 in Q1 from 0.74 in the previous quarter and 0.71 in Q1 2001 (see chart).

...........
Also, the home mortgages-to-GDP ratio climbed to 0.53 in Q1 from 0.52 in Q4 2001 and 0.49 in Q1 2001 (see chart).

...........
Our analysis continues to indicate that the pace of economic activity is likely to decelerate sharply by the year's end--if not earlier.
.........
Also, a flattening in the yield curve points to a likely softening in economic activity in the months ahead.
...........
There is a high likelihood that the real pool of savings--the driving force of the economy--is in trouble. Without an adequate buildup in the real pool of savings, no sustainable economic recovery is possible. In short, if real savings are in trouble, then regardless of what the Fed does, economic activity will decline.

Misetich

Got gold?


misetich (7/31/02; 05:40:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 81937)
MBA survey - U.S. mortgage refinancings jump in week
http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/07/31/rtr681690.html
Snip:

NEW YORK, July 31 (Reuters) - The number of Americans applying for a loan to buy a home or refinance a mortgage to save on borrowing costs rose last week, even though U.S. mortgage interest rates rose slightly, industry trade group reported on Wednesday.

Refinancings have helped consumers carve away at monthly borrowing costs and this has helped support consumer spending to buttress an anemic economy. At the same time, buyers of homes are expected to be big spenders as they equip their homes with appliances and furniture.
...................
The industry group said refinancings accounted for 67.6 percent of the week's activity.

Misetich

Mortgage interest rates rose slightly and refinancing represented 67.6% of the week's activity -

A wondering mind could say those refinancing coincided with the equity markets shortfall-

Got gold?


misetich (7/31/02; 05:35:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 81936)
Senator Says Merrill Lynch Helped Enron 'Cook Books'
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/07/31/business/31ENRO.html
Snip:

By RICHARD A. OPPEL Jr.


ASHINGTON, July 30 — Using internal documents, e-mail messages and even a videotape as evidence, lawmakers on a Senate panel argued today that Merrill Lynch, one of the nation's largest and most respected brokerage firms, repeatedly cut corners and compromised its business practices to win more investment-banking fees from Enron.

.............
"Merrill Lynch helped Enron artificially and deceptively create revenue," Senator Carl Levin, the Michigan Democrat who is chairman of the panel, said today. "Enron couldn't have engaged in the deceptions it did without help from a major financial institution," he said. "Merrill Lynch assisted Enron in cooking its books."
..............

Misetich

JP Morgan, Citi, Merrill and the rest - accomplices - in investors being defrauded by the likes of Enron -

Who's is the next Enron to get caught?

Got gold?




misetich (7/31/02; 05:25:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 81935)
Intel sees China passing Japan in PC market in 2002
http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/07/31/rtr681588.html
Snip:

KUALA LUMPUR, July 31 (Reuters) - U.S. chip behemoth Intel Corp said on Wednesday China will overtake Japan as the world's second biggest PC market this year, earlier than expected and underscoring the weak demand in Asia's most mature market.
.............
"The trend is the same worldwide, with matured markets flat or down and emerging markets still growing," Morales told a news conference in Kuala Lumpur.

"Things can only get better when companies' bottom lines get healthier. When that's going to happen ? At this point in time, that would be speculating."

Last week, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co sparked a sell-off in global technology stocks when it reported disappointing profits and warned that the July-September quarter might get even tougher.

All of the world's top three chipmakers have cut back on their spending plans in just the past two weeks, citing softening demand for electronics in many markets.

Intel lowered capital spending plans by $200 million to $5 billion and announced another 4,000 layoffs, but said the cost-saving measures would not affect chip-making capacity plans.
...............

Misetich

US markets are expecting earnings growth in 3rd qtr in the 14% range and 25% in 4th quarter

We wait patiently for the downward revisions and market adjustments

Got gold?



a nation of one (7/31/02; 05:15:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 81934)
gold reserves
"The world's total recoverable gold reserve is estimated at approximately 1,000,000,000 troy ounces (31,103,000,000 grams). Of this, the gold resources in the fields of the Witwatersrand system in the Republic of South Africa are estimated at more than one half of the total, or 500,000,000 oz. The gold reserves in the Soviet Union, although not made public, are also believed to be very large. According to the Bureau of Mines, U.S. Department of the Interior, a preliminary estimate of domestic gold reserves, based on data compiled in a study of the nation's gold potential, shows a total of 20,000,000 oz. of gold, virtually all of which is recoverable under current economic and technologic conditions."

The quote is from the Encyclopaedia Britannica, 1970 edition. (According to my government pamphlet on Copyright Law, this is fair use.) The same article states: "Four countries produce a total of over 85% of the world's gold. Of the estimated 50,000,000 troy ounces produced annually, [and it goes on to say a lot of other things]."

From this, anyone can see that, since one billion divided by fifty million is 20, no gold has been produced anywhere in the world since 1990. What an elaborate conspiracy we are witnessing! Oh. Wait a minute. Darn! There's another way this information can be interpreted. Maybe the billion ounce 'estimate' was incorrect. Let's see, what does the word 'nominal' mean? I'll look it up. "nominal, ...[definition] 2: (of a price, consideration, etc.) named as a mere matter of form, being trifling in comparison with the actual value; minimal." Now we know why gold is still being sold in public markets; it's still being mined. It seems reasonable to conclude, therefore, that the one billion ounce figure was never intended to be realistic. That makes sense. If I was mining gold, say from under my front walk for instance, I wouldn't want anyone to know how much I thought was there. Besides, nobody even knows where I live. Opps! I forgot about USAGOLD! They know my street address! Well, no matter. There isn't that much gold remaining under my sidewalk, only about five or six thousand ounces at most. Really..., if that.



misetich (7/31/02; 05:14:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 81933)
Japan tax revenues sliced by recession last year
http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/07/31/rtr681620.html
Snip:

TOKYO, July 31 (Reuters) - Japan's tax revenue fell short of the government's target by 1.68 trillion yen ($14 billion) in the last business year as corporate profits were pinched by recession,
...........
But the Finance Ministry is anxious to stop Japan's debt mountain -- which has prompted a series of credit downgrades by ratings agencies -- getting bigger, and wants to see any cut in its precious revenues matched by tax increases elsewhere.
..............
Japan's public debt is forecast to rise to some 693 trillion yen, or 140 percent of gross domestic product, by the end of the current fiscal year -- the biggest debt pile among industrial countries.
...............

Misetich

Japan's economic, banking, market problems are mounting -

Lets stay on this TRAIL

Got gold?


misetich (7/31/02; 05:03:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 81932)
BIS's Crockett - US deficit - an "almost unavoidable" impact on the dollar,
http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/07/31/rtr681636.html
Snip:
Wall Street loses have also been accompanied by a sliding dollar, partly blamed on investors worry at the size of the United States' current account deficit.

Crockett said that it was not a question of if, but when the deficit adjusted and this would have an "almost unavoidable" impact on the dollar, which would be no bad thing.

"It would be nice to see it happen [a fall in the dollar] along with a strengthening of demand outside the US, in Europe in particular but also in other countries," he said.

Misetich

Thus far only gold and Euro have strenghened against the US $, -other meaningful export/import markets for the US have remained the same.
We wait patiently for the next leg down for the US $

Got gold?



Black Blade (7/31/02; 04:58:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 81931)
Breaking News – Another Bombing

Just over the wire is yet another bombing in Jerusalem. This time the report is that casualties are mounting as a bomb exploded at Hebrew University. No details yet.

- Black Blade


Black Blade (7/31/02; 04:51:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 81930)
Correction - Market Indicators Are Stronger

All the indicators including Gold are strengthening. This is quite strange. Asia was mixed just like yesterday's US markets.

My My, look at them market futures go.

- Black Blade


misetich (7/31/02; 04:49:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 81929)
Brazil's Economy Falters as Companies' Payment Arrears Grow
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APUdiIxVwQnJhemls
Snip:

``We're in a critical situation,'' said Tiscoski, president of Higie Bras Industria e Comercio Ltda., which sells its detergent and disinfectants to some of the nation's biggest supermarkets. ``We're not strong enough to challenge them.''

The slump in businesses such as Tiscoski's, brought on by a four-month slide in the currency and plunge in bond prices, may undo a decade of progress that helped fuel average growth for South America's largest economy of 3 percent a year and draw more than $150 billion in foreign direct investment, analysts said.
...............
Misetich

Brazil is one of the largest importers of US goods and services -

Got gold?


Black Blade (7/31/02; 04:48:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 81928)
Monkey See Monkey Do In Asia
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp

The Precious Metals are still holding higher, Petroleum is higher, the USD is strengthening, and US market index futures are surging (well above "fair value"). The Wall Street primates are lining up on CNBC and CNNfn to give the all clear. The sheep are being lured in for another shearing. Looks like an "entertaining" day is in store.

- Black Blade


Black Blade (7/31/02; 04:42:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 81927)
European Markets Rocket Higher
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

The Euro markets are rocketing higher on the back of surging US market index futures this morning. Rumor has it that a major investmnet bank is making another big run on the futures ahead of the GDP data release this morning. Do they have a crystal ball or is there a mole releasing information? This is strange indeed. No such thing as market manipulation? Hmmm...

We shall see. Less than 2 hours to go.

- Black Blade


Black Blade (7/31/02; 03:37:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 81926)
AngloGold cuts hedge book in second quarter
http://biz.yahoo.com/ft/020731/1028039812622_1.html

Snippit:

AngloGold, the South Africa miner, said on Wednesday it would reduce its hedge book by 2.4m ounces to 10.5m ounces in the second quarter as it reported a 10 per cent rise in operating profit. The miner attributed the "significant reduction" in the company's hedge book to more positive medium to long-term prospects for the gold price.

Black Blade: I am becoming more impressed with AngloGold. Hopefully they will unwind that hedge book quickly then I might be interested. The sooner this hedging issue is put to rest the better. This hedging monster must be killed and a stake driven through its heart!



Black Blade (7/31/02; 03:26:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 81925)
AOL Under DOJ Scrutiny
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020731/media_aol_probe_3.html

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Justice Department is investigating accounting practices at AOL Time Warner Inc, according to a report in Wednesday's USA Today. Federal prosecutors in Virginia, where the company's America Online unit is headquartered, were working in tandem with the Securities and Exchange Commission, according to the newspaper, which cited a source with knowledge of the probe. The SEC opened a fact-finding inquiry into AOL's accounting practices after a recent Washington Post article raised the possibility that AOL may have inflated revenues in 2000 and 2001.

Black Blade: Another domino to fall. Also, Qwest is rumored to be ready to file chapter 11. We shall see. So far WorldCon and Global Crossing are the two other large telecoms to bite the dust.

BTW, this morning we see the second quarter GDP and the revised data (8:30 EST). Should be fun! Of course the data will be under new rules of "rigging". The last time the government "rigged" economic data we ended up with "hedonic deflators". So who knows. I see that CNBC is already spinning stories that Wall Street has proven thta it is ready to ignore bad news. Hmmm...



Black Blade (7/31/02; 03:15:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 81924)
Gold & Silver Derivatives as Tools of Money Laundering by James Sinclair & Harry Schultz
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/sinclair/073002.htm

Snippit:

Silver, but primarily gold, has been used for many years to effectively, secretly and safely transport money from one place to another. This same technique has also been used to drain money from one place and to lodge the same money elsewhere. It is sophisticated, secret and common to those that live in the international trading circle. It has been used to evade taxes, to commit bankruptcy fraud and to just plain steal. There is a strong possibility, bordering on a probability, that at the heart of recent corporate illegalities, amongst public companies that have trading, as one of their activities, and non-gold producers who have leased gold for cheap financing, that an ILLEGAL transport of money has occurred via gold derivatives.

Black Blade: An interesting scenario presented by Sinclair and Schultz. I have considered such schemes before. It does sound reasonable though in light of Enron, JP Morgan Chase, and Citigroup.



Black Blade (7/31/02; 02:58:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 81923)
Oil stagnates on war talk
http://www.worldoil.com/news/newsstory.asp?ref=http://62.172.78.184/feeds/worldoil/new/article_e.asp?energy24=253029


Snippit:

US oil prices stagnated Monday amid press reports that the government is planning to attack Iraq. The New York Times reported that the Bush administration is considering a pre-emptive military strike against Iraq that would start with an attack on Baghdad and one or two key command centers and weapons depots. Quoting senior administration and Pentagon officials, the newspaper said US military planners hoped the strategy would cut off Iraq's leadership and lead to quick collapse of the government. Iraq is a major source of oil, though its exports are sporadic. Theoretically, Iraq exports around 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) under a UN-supervised oil-for-food program designed to ease the suffering of its sanctions-stricken population.


Black Blade: Are we any closer to war with Iraq? I don't know, however, my brother has just been called to active duty – he's in the Army Reserve. I heard that another acquaintance has also been ordered to report in a couple of weeks. Maybe something is up.



Operative (7/31/02; 01:38:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 81922)
A Few GOOD Men
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/07/30/national/30HIJA.html?ex=1028692800&en=5740f855b0e563f2&ei=5038&partner=ASAHI
The past few months have brought headlines of excessive greed by American corporations and executives, aided and abetted by those in high places like JPM, Citicorp, and Chase. Questioning the government has become a daily event in watching many of our freedoms disappear in the name of a war on terrorism, war on drugs, war on protecting children, war on crime, so many wars. One of the signs of end times is there will be many rumours of wars. I think we have arrived at this signpost. What I need today, is news of a few real, true, heros. People who self sacrifice to make the world, our nation, safer or better. The attached link provided the news I needed to see/hear.
It reminded me that all is not lost, that all hope is not yet extinguished.

In the quietness of this early morning I can almost hear the battle cry, "Let's Roll!" as a group of people, unknown to each other, banded together and fought bravely, courageously, against evil.


steady (07/31/02; 00:02:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 81921)
the coin that was almost mine
GANDALPH THE WHITE
9 min and 58 seconds into the auctio i though it was all mine at 7,589,999.99. thats what i get for watching my pennys aughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.




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