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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 12/31/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

mikal (12/31/02; 23:42:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 93092)
@RPowell
"At $4.00 -$5.00 the downside is awfully limited" I agree and like I said regarding Sir Douglas, Trail Guide (FOA), the significance is relative performance here, since even George has warmed to Ag and we all know it's significant undervaluation. So the resting place is to be a product of more than just supply/demand and other fundamentals, cycles, technicals, etc.

Black Blade (12/31/02; 23:37:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 93091)
Re: Rich – Silver

The major superconductor manufacturer in the US is American Superconductor Corp. (AMSC). They have several contracts with the US Navy for superconductor wire and coils.

I have silver, gold, and platinum in my portfolio. I tend to be more centered on Gold coin and bullion (24K mostly), though I have Silver coin, bars, and rounds as well. I lean more to uncirculated Morgan Silver Dollars, however, I have quite a number of rounds too.

I did a bit of bargain hunting for Xmas, though I confess I spent less than half what I normally do this year. I got myself a nice Seiko watch (gold tone of course), and a few trinkets for family. I rarely go to malls except for holiday shopping and then it is more of a trip to Radio Shack and the Barnes and Noble bookstore. I did notice the light foot-traffic this year compared to years past.

Silver appears to have a lot of speculator interest these days and there is a lot of commentary on declining supply by a growing number of mainstream market analysts and market newsletter writers. I see that Stephen Leeb of Personal Finance is even recommending the purchase of physical silver for the addition to ones portfolio. Personally I see nothing wrong with holding both Gold and Silver.

Cheers!

- Black Blade


mikal (12/31/02; 23:34:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 93090)
@RPowell
I will dig them up. As for "higher levels"- I can't see FOA's low Ag price warnings as having any significance other than the relative difference when compared with other money and holdings like Gold and Euro.
The perception of silver at the end, as Mr Bill states, will be changed. You see the throttle in action throgh complicity at the highest levels using short derivatives exceeding authorized limits, rule changes, etc. now to keep the gun loaded, even to increase Ag acquisitions for future use and control and to make trading profits using the power of vested casino insiders.
As the price rises in a controlled manner, one or more shakeouts (stings) can be performed, from high lofty levels, until sufficient losses demoralize and condition traders to become sellers. But this will reach it's limit when Ag's investment and trading image changes.

Simply Me (12/31/02; 23:27:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 93089)
Congratulations to the Contest Winners!
Congrats to Sir Donnemuir for winning the Gold! And to Sir's Yellow Jacket and Houston for the Silver. Well done!!

Thanks, too, to Gandalf for keeping all the entrees straight. And as always, thanks to MK for sponsoring the contest.

I've been busier than ever this year but I've been lurking all the while.

May we all be busier than ever in 2003!
Golden Granny


Black Blade (12/31/02; 23:15:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 93088)
Gold's rise may go on into 2003
http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/business/1721320

War, weak dollar push trend not likely to last

Snippit:

NEW YORK -- Gold, on track for its biggest annual gain in 23 years, may rise further in the new year as the threat of a U.S.-led attack against Iraq prompts buying of the metal as a haven, analysts and traders said Tuesday. Gold futures soared 24 percent last year, reaching a 5 1/2-year high near $350 an ounce, as tumbling stocks and a weakening dollar sent investors looking for alternative assets. Prices may rise as much as $50 more, even before any attack, some traders said. "We might go to $380 or $400, but it's going to have a hard time getting over that," said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management, a money management company in Evanston, Ill.

Black Blade: I agree that Gold will continue to rise as it is apparently in a secular bull market now. Once the invasion on Iraq occurs there may be a temporary pull back, however, Iraq is just one issue. The war on terrorism, rising geopolitical tensions elsewhere, a falling US dollar, a secular bear market for equities that will last for several years, and declining mine production will provide underlying support for Gold well beyond Iraq..



R Powell (12/31/02; 23:10:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 93087)
mikal
Your reference of U.S. exported silver hidding in Europe is interesting. All this was done so long ago specifically to "sting the speculators"? And you say you have documentation. Can you share any of it or provide any sources for us to follow.
I have talked with a fellow called endgame who also claims there are huge cashes of silver hidden by unknown but powerful people. He, also, claims that this has been accomplished over many decades with the express purpose of hammering the market at the right moment.
Again, please, any documentation, references, links, news articles old or new? Anything?
It seems the "sting" might work better if these secret silver holders first ran up the price. It would be more profitable to force the POS down from higher levels, the downside from $4.00-5.00 is awfully limited.
Any sources?
Thanks
Rich

Simply Me (12/31/02; 23:09:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 93086)
@sector (12/31/02; 19:55:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 93071)
sector's post:
"Nov-02__175,000_______-489%
Dec-02__2,490,000_______42%
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The Mint's last-minute coin "Sales" figures are not credible given the clear 10-year historic record of past shipments at their website. These December 30, 2002 shipments didn't just happen over the last few days.

The Mint reacts to orders. They do not follow hunches when scheduling coin production. They were far behind normal deliveries in October, November and all of December until the second to last day of 2002 when they [If one believes in the tooth fairy] threw a Hail Mary pass and pulled out 2.90 million coins.

By the way who exactly was it that tricked the Mint into making all those useless silver coins coins in the last seventy two hours? Mahendra Sharma? Monty Python? Pee Wee Herman?"


Simply: It was the Mint's own requirement to order 2 2002 Silver Eagles for every 3 2003 Silver Eagles that caused the December numbers to go up. Big US Mint buyers have been placing their orders all through December under that stupid rule and they hated it!

If the coins were not already minted, why would they place those strange ordering restrictions on their biggest customers?
Simply

Happy New Year in the Central Time Zone!


Simply


R Powell (12/31/02; 22:45:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 93085)
Black Blade
I'm happy to see your interests include the poor man's gold.

I remember reading about the silver coated superconductor electric power transmission lines that were tested in inner-city Detroit. The silvercoated looses very little power over transmission distance and 25,000 lbs of old copper wire was replaced by only 900 lbs of the new wire. I believe the patent is held by an Italian company and the wire is being made by a company located at the old Fort Devens site in North-central Massachusetts. With almost no power loss, uses may include short transmission lines, generators, aircraft and ships, etc.
I read your recent report describing your visit to several different shopping malls. I found the image of yourself at a mall a little out of character. I guess I picture you stalking the wild beasts of the wildernesss rather than stalking the after Christmas sales.
Knowing that you search the news wires daily, may I ask you the same question that I asked of Pizz earlier tonight...but altered a little...Would you keep an eye open for any explanation of silver's price movement OTHER THAN the two old standbys of "technical movement" or "trading with gold". Other than the floor traders scalping points, and an occassional soybean trader having fun in the silver pits, what moves the POS?
Thanks
Rich

mikal (12/31/02; 22:40:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 93084)
@RPowell
In answer to your question, yes the U.S. Eagles full allottment(mintage) DOES get sold each year. That is one reason why the mint is requiring their authorized bulk(wholesale) purchasers to take the old ones with the new ones in the 2 to 3 ratio. To clean out the inventory as required by law. Coin World newspaper deals with this subject, among others.
As for your good question WHY are there leftovers.
The purchaser Mr. Bill refers to, who kept purchasing huge quantities of Ag Eagles up to AND after the Y2K dud calamity(even though all other Eagle and many other categories of bullion coins demand dropped noticeably) keeping Ag Eagle mintages pressing out to meet orders had "plans to make a lot of money on this", as Mr Bill says. So as to reduce the supply until their goal was met in late 2002, whereby they didn't need any more orders- the mint served their purpose, even coining the last Ag Eagles was intended to consume silver.

mikal (12/31/02; 22:26:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 93083)
@Mr. Bill
Your msg. 93075 and 93074 are spot on. Well said sir.
The silver shipped to Europe over a long period of years in the middle of the 20th century, awaits it's destiny, as in "sting the speculators". I have documentation on this. They AREN'T so dumb as we're led to believe with all this "shorts are sweating" and "they're history" babble. Also the accumulation of silver Eagles is just another way to advance the initial bull, by removing available Ag, as you know. But Black Blade did a good job summarizing the awesome demand side which they have accounted for and will take advantage of more than those less informed and positioned.

R Powell (12/31/02; 22:18:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 93082)
GratefulForGold
As far as 2002 vs. 2003 silver coins go, you're right that both look alike (beautiful) and both are one ounce (heavy for the cheap price). We're just curious as to why the Mint is requiring some 2002 coins to be included in 2003 orders. Sometimes there's information hidden in mysteries!


physicalman (12/31/02; 22:12:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 93081)
mr. bill
I agree that silver is an industrial metal but first and foremost silver has always been money and a store of wealth like gold. Silver coinage has been produced as long as gold and historically has been at a 7-1 to 20-1 ratio to gold until the massive US deposits were being mined in the 19th century. All that silver that has been mined is not around for two reasons 1) most silver used in industrial uses from the mid 1920's to the mid 1970's was not recycled
In 1972 i asked my dad to start saving the large contacts from industrial switches (85% silver) Every month he would bring me a 5 qt. bucketful and sometimes some more in a paper bag. He had been throwing them away for 20 years!
2) silver was the joe six-pack money for 2500 years up until the time after WWII ( us until 1964) and lots of coinage received heavy wear which cut down on the silver content significantly. When i was working the silver and gold buying circuit in late 79 some bags of silver that i bought did not smelt out to 715 oz. Many of the heavily worn bags ended up netting only 620 to 635 oz. per 1000 face. I bought by weight not face then because the market was so volatle.
Its estimated that the biggest amount of silver left in the world is in India (3 billion oz.) but it is in the hands of 100's of millions. There are by my unscientific estimates 1 billion oz. here and it is in the hands of 100,000's except for warren buffet and the comex stocks
Black Blade Thanks for all the other info. I knew most of it but all this typing is killing my index fingers

R Powell (12/31/02; 21:54:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 93080)
Mr Bill
Please remember when speaking of the silver short position that for each and every short contract there is a long contract.
How much silver do you guess is in a $2.5 million Minuteman missile? How much will be recovered after that it is used to shoot down a Scud? How many electronical components are stripped down for used silver? Other than in China where cheap labor and a lack of environmental laws make silver recovery from used film possible, how much of that use is recovered.
Of the 6 billion ounces that the U.S. government held 50-60 years ago, where is that now? How did it disappear if it was recovered? At $5.00/ounce the primary miners are going broke and recovery is nowhere near profitable. I'd agree that silver was not "consumed" in any great quantity until about 50 years ago. Since then, a good deal of 5000 years of accumulation have been used and used as in gone.
Recovery and the melting down of silverware and even grandma's tea set are always possible future sources but not at current prices.
Rich

R Powell (12/31/02; 21:32:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 93079)
Does anyone know.....
what the Mint has done in past years with whatever extra coins have been left over?
I find it strange that orders require 2002 coins to be included with 2003. Have they since 1986 sold all coins minted each and every year so there was no leftover?

I always enjoy anything I can learn about gold and silver and this unusual buying requirement presents a mystery but, perhaps we should also remember that the amount of silver used yearly in coins amounts to only about 2% of demand.

CPM's Silver Survey lists (for the year 2001) total supply at 746.5 million ounces with demand at 847.2 million ounces. Of this 847.2 million, only 17 million are listed under the category "coinage". This is not a whole lot of what sector calls "useless silver coins".

Same source as above:
Year 2003 estimates (rough guesses?)
Total production 739.1 million ounces
Total demand 880.7 million ounces

I believe the CPM group has "adjusted" these numbers since the survey was printed last Spring. Both their production and demand numbers were originally based on an optimistic outlook for a recovering world economy in 2002. Apparently, they watch and believe the peoples stock picking television channel.
They have revised their deficit numbers downward citing the disappointing economy as a basis for less demand. However, they made no mention of less production, especially from secondary sources. I guess they are not aware of the cutback in base metal production.

I was amazed that the silver market had no reaction to the government's admission that it has to buy silver to continue a coin program that uses only 2% of total demand. They really have very little or no silver left from the 6 billion (around end of WW2) that physicalman mentioned.
The percentage is probably unknown to most market players and therefore would not downscale their (initial at least) reaction but (imho) even the fact that the bill exists and was signed into law (thus proving the shortage) is probably unknown. POS declined 7 cents on the day the bill became law.
This is the only conclusion that makes any sense to me - namely that the market trades oblivious to any knownledge of the fundamentals or the ongoing deficit- in light of the barely varying price for these last many years. This is an anomaly that may make some people very wealthy.
Agree also that the Mint is no longer buying silver for $1.29/ounce and thus coin prices should rise even if POS does not. Good point.
BN BC and B some silver too
Rich


GratefulForGold (12/31/02; 21:17:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 93078)
Silver Eagles -- 2002/2003??
Although I lack the experience of most of you here, I find myself wondering about the issue of 2002/2003. Aside from any potential numismatic value, to me, what's the big deal?

From the start, when I've acquired bullion, it's been almost strictly for the ounces and purity. I simply don't care if it's 2002, 2001, 2003 or whatever. Just give me the silver!

So, what am I missing?

Black Blade (12/31/02; 20:59:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 93077)
Silver Demand and Uses

Since we appear to be on the subject of silver tonight, I have some info that has come my way on the fundamental case for silver and why silver prices should have a strong upward move.

Silver has a strong industrial demand component due to its unique characteristics. It is irreplaceable in batteries, photovoltaic cells, and energy efficient glass. As emerging markets advance into the modern world the demand for industrial silver will obviously soar. Since silver is used in everything from autos to electronics that demand will increase as the peoples of the Third World increase their wealth. We already know about the increased demand from electronics in spite of decreased demand from circulated coinage and the advent of digital photography. Silver is used in photographic and radiographic film and silver halide in photographic paper accounts for about 44 million ounces annually. However, uses for silver are expanding at a rapid rate and new uses are in the works.

New Uses:

Silver is replacing chemical biocides in water purification systems. It is expected that 11 million ounces will be used for this purpose annually by 2006 and 20 million ounces by 2010. It is also expected that silver-based water purification systems for swimming pools will an more than 5 million ounces annually by 2010. Silver kills pathogens such as legionnaires disease, salmonella, and E-coli on contact and supplements steel utensils in hospitals, restaurants and hotels. This application alone is expected to increase demand by 50 million ounces annually by 2010. Antibacterial impregnated bandages slowly release silver ions. Silver ions also have been used to great effect in the treatment of burn and frostbite victims.

Silver is also replacing the use of lead in brazing and soldering in the electronics industry. 40 million ounces are already used annually and the use will rise significantly as environmental regulations are geared toward reducing environmental hazards of lead products. Japan has already leads the way in mandating the reduction of lead for such uses.

Silver-coated, laser-readable security cards hold 10,000 times the information of magnetic cards. As the US (and other nations) become more security conscious this demand will rise. The INS "Green Card" and Dept. of State ID cards already use this technology.

Ionic silver will soon replace arsenic in wood preservation. The EPA has banned all wood products using arsenic as of December 31, 2003 (exactly one year from today). This will probably mean silver demand will increase by 100 million ounces a year by the end of the decade.

Another growing use of silver will come from the demand for silver-encased super-conducting wire for electricity transmission and large engines. Each kilometer of wire requires about 250 ounces of silver. Demand is projected to be about 10 million ounces by 2010.

Silver Production:

This year (2002) silver production (mined and scrap) will fall by 0.8% to 704 million ounces. For the last 12 years there has been a deficit of approximately 122 million ounces. Silver is being used and most is not recovered – it is "consumed". Silver inventories have fallen from 2.1 billion ounces in 1990 to about 400 million ounces in 2001.

With silver prices below $5 and ounce and since most silver is by-product of other precious and base metal mining, it stands to reason that there is no incentive to explore and mine news deposits until the price rises substantially – in effect when it's "crunch time". As with gold mining it takes approximately 7 years to bring a new mine into production, so once the silver supply is depleted it will be several years before any significant increase in silver production will take place. "Crunch Time" is fast approaching even though we are extremely fortunate to be mired in a crippling recession. Otherwise a booming economy would increase silver demand beyond the immediate ability of producers and recyclers to attempt to meet demand. We simply do not have sufficient silver supply for the present economy, let alone a "recovering economy". Obviously Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, and George Soros already know this and they have positioned themselves accordingly.

- Black Blade

And I haven't even discussed the increased demand from investment silver (coins and bars) and ornamental demand.


GratefulForGold (12/31/02; 20:55:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 93076)
Sierra Madre (12/31/02; 18:55:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 93066)Sierra Madre (#93066)

Thank you for sharing your personal experience of helping someone over to the "other side." I remember when you posed your "hypothetical" question of how to advise such a woman about her investments. It must be very heart-warming to know you've helped someone protect herself (and others) in the upcoming times.

Congratulations and may you and everyone on this enriching and life-saving Forum have a safe, healthy and prosperous 2003!

Mr. Bill (12/31/02; 20:31:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 93075)
@physicalman msg#: 93069
The ratio between gold and silver is there for a reason. Silver is a commodity, gold is money. Although they appear to be joined at the hip, this is only temporary. Someone is planning to make a lot of money on this relationship.

Most of that 41 billion ounces of silver still exists somewhere out there. It has not been consumed. It is only in a converted stage. And it can be converted right back if the price is right.

Those shorts are not idiots. These are some of the brightest people on the planet. And when the game ends, everyone will understand how the game is really played.


Mr. Bill (12/31/02; 20:21:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 93074)
@sector msg#: 93071
Production does not start or stop on a dime. They probably produce at least 2 months in advance. And having seen the August sales figures, they would have been producing like crazy. Except nobody came. They were not "far behind normal deliveries in October, November". They were far behind in sales.

Now somebody has been buying a lot of silver eagles. If you check the sales of gold and silver coin leading up to Y2K and immediately after, you will see that there is something fishy with the silver eagle sales. They did not drop off after Y2K whereas gold sales did. So who is the buyer? Send me a self addressed, stamped envelope, and I will let you know.


melda laure (12/31/02; 20:13:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 93073)
Alye i vinya laurëa loa.
Recent magazine covers

Some days ago a sharp eyed Lady of the forum chanced to note the cover of Fortune magazine. It pictured a nice stack of kilo gold bars. And she wondered what deep nugget of wisdom (if any) might be found between the covers. I can tell you LAST years cover had a blow up of a 50$ 1oz Eagle. It contained virtually nothing about gold save a 1 page ad from the world gold council: "be prepared whatever the forecast". This year's issue is much better, the world gold council is saving their money and advertising elsewhere, (if you find out where please tell us.)

I suppose Fortune magazine does this every year. Perhaps for them, (and many others) gold is very like the elvish word [laure] referring to the color, and not the metal. That is to say, their use of the word is purely metaphorical. They speak of "golden opportunities".. in tech/industrials/yadda/yadda yet heaven forbid you should ever actually OWN a kilo bar. The effect is mildy disturbing.

This year's issue shows a bit more respect for the bear, and the usual gushy optimism. Buy yourself a copy if you want, but you'll find out more about AU on this forum in a single afternoon than you will in a years subscription. elesewhere.


here's wishing a blessed golden year to all.


physicalman (12/31/02; 20:02:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 93072)
sector
The December figures include presells of 2003's

sector (12/31/02; 19:55:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 93071)
Mr. Bill: "Mint was conned into over-producing Silver Eagles"
Since you asked...
Date____Silver Eagles__Y-O-Y Change
Jan-02___913,500_______15%
Feb-02___905,000________6%
Mar-02___797,000_______1%
Apr-02 ___815,000_______31%
May-02___495,000______14%
Jun-02___695,000_______33%
Jul-02____740,000______16%
Aug-02__1,745,000______73%
Sep-02____550,000_______0%
Oct-02___155,000_______-444%
Nov-02__175,000_______-489%
Dec-02__2,490,000_______42%
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The Mint's last-minute coin "Sales" figures are not credible given the clear 10-year historic record of past shipments at their website. These December 30, 2002 shipments didn't just happen over the last few days.

The Mint reacts to orders. They do not follow hunches when scheduling coin production. They were far behind normal deliveries in October, November and all of December until the second to last day of 2002 when they [If one believes in the tooth fairy] threw a Hail Mary pass and pulled out 2.90 million coins.

By the way who exactly was it that tricked the Mint into making all those useless silver coins coins in the last seventy two hours? Mahendra Sharma? Monty Python? Pee Wee Herman?

Wait...I know...It was all those Northern Idaho, bent-vegetable-can-buying, Bushmaster-rifle-with-bannana-clip waving, short-wave radio listening, Red Man tobacco chewing, anti-government redneck skin-heads. They chipped in, went and hired a Gordon Gecko type greasy Washington DC lawyer and fooled the dopes at Treasury...again!

Whoooeeee....are they GOOD or what!






Gandalf the White (12/31/02; 19:45:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 93070)
Thank you Sir Sierra Madre for your message.
Sierra Madre (12/31/02; 18:55:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 93066)
An anecdote for gold-bugs...
===
Sir Sierra Madre, YOU have a GOLDEN HEART !
Happy New Year to you and yours.
<;-)


physicalman (12/31/02; 19:42:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 93069)
mr bill-sector sierra madre
The mint, according to a reliable source had too many 2002 dies and used them up to strike more 2002's then were ordered. IMO the extra dies were produced to make it look like there was a lot of silver. Silver sales were very slow the last ten days of nov. and all of dec.
I do know from a primary that 2003 eagle orders are heavy and that means that a lot of dists. are probably going to have to cut the spread they charge on 2002's to get rid of them. But with average annual mint usage of silver exceding whats left in the pipeline by 40% then they will be purchasing on the open market this year.
Another thing to think about is how severely the world's economies downturn and how a lack of sales and free cash affect total demand. US is the largest silver producer followed closely by Mexico then Peru, Chile and China. A key here is nobody knows exactly how much China produces each year or if they will require imports for industrial needs( they already refine a lot of silver ore from austraila.
I am heavy into silver myself (gold too) and will explain why
1: 5500 years of estimated production
Gold- 4.3 billion oz.
Silver-41 billion oz.
10-1 ratio
ratio on today's spot market 72.4-1
2: US stockpile of silver at the end of WWII
6 billion oz.
Now-a little over 7 million oz.
3: 5 times the shorts on Comex compared to physical holdings plus a few other tidbits that will show themselves very shortly IMVHO
Also talking about family and friends getting the gold fever my parents had me put 10% of their 2% CD's into au,ag and they are up a few G's in the last few weeks. My mom and dad worked until they were 70 and i am afraid that was the only way they were going to protect their hard earned savings
Oh Happy New Year Everyone!!!

Simply Me (12/31/02; 19:33:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 93068)
(No Subject)
@Mr. Bill
Large U.S. Mint buyers DO have to buy 2 2002 Silver Eagles for every 3 2003's they order. That part I know is true. Unless the POS holds the price up, 2002 Silver Eagle prices should drop to clearance sale levels as the big boys try to turn the dead inventory.
January however is always boomtime for silver...during the big FUN (Florida United Numismatics) show in Orlando.
Simply

Mr. Bill (12/31/02; 19:00:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 93067)
@sector msg#: 93060
Where do you come up with this stuff? The Mint got conned into overproducing 2002 silver eagles. You now have to buy 2 2002 silver eagles for every 3 2003 silver eagles that you want. That is what is known as a clearance sale. I would wait and see what the demand is for January before I would make any comments as to where the silver coin market is going. There definitely was no shortage at the end of the year.


Sierra Madre (12/31/02; 18:55:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 93066)
An anecdote for gold-bugs...

The first days of December, I thought I had finally convinced an 89 year old lady, who is a good friend (though crochety) with no relatives except a son who is alienated from her and lives in Europe, that she should not hold her hard-earned accumulated wealth of $375 thousand dollars in the form of a promissory note yielding something like 4%.

On December 9, I purchased, with borrowed money, gold for her at $331.

She took about 10 days to get ahold of her money, and then mentioned that - "Could she make the investment $200 thousand instead of $375?" "Yes," I said. "that's OK. I have the gold and have already made some money on it."

A couple of days later she said, "I read in the PAPER, that gold is exploding". "Well, Jane", I said, "I'm glad you found out from the paper - they don't really have a clue as to what they are saying, your authority is ME, I have been following gold for 47 years at least, but anyway, I'm glad you feel better about gold after reading the paper."

"Yes, I do, and do you think I could have the whole $375?"

"Sure, that will be fine with me. Come to my office and pick up the stuff, put it in a Bank safe deposit box, and give me your check."

She came over to the office and I showed her the stuff. 75 pounds of pure gold! She was awestruck!

We did the figures and she went home the proud owner of 75lbs of gold and $50 thousand pesos for spending money.

She was with my family and me, on Christmas Eve. She fairly jumped for joy when I told her she was $15 thousand ahead at that date.

One more gold bug! That's one lady that will not lack shelter, food, and medical attention till she dies.

2003 may present us with a lot of ugly things, but one thing I feel for sure, it will be THE YEAR OF THE GOLD BUG!
And gold bugs will soon eat hundred dollar bills for breakfast.

Happy New Year to gold-bug posters and lurkers all over the world, from

SIERRA IN ACAPULCO



Sundeck (12/31/02; 18:36:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 93065)
Congratulations to the WINNERS!!!
Dang...if I missed out I was kinda hoping either The Invisible Hand ($8752.5) or, at the very least, Sir Steve H ($1300.0) would have been the winner...sigh!

Happy New Year to all...

balzac (12/31/02; 18:22:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 93064)
A LITTLE RHYME FROM KLAMATH FALLS

To all the BUGS- a Happy New Year-
And if the bullion is getting too dear,

Check out TRC-X on the Globe and Mail charts,
This may help your faint old hearts,

Regards,

Balzac

Black Blade (12/31/02; 18:15:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 93063)
Venezuelan strike leader warns of violence; oil production won't be normal for weeks, officials say
http://www2.bostonherald.com/news/international/ap_chavez12312002.htm

Snippit:

CARACAS, Venezuela - Street violence in Venezuela is becoming increasingly unavoidable, a key leader in the strike to topple President Hugo Chavez warned Tuesday, as the monthlong protest continued choking gasoline supplies and polarizing residents. Labor leader Carlos Ortega also renewed his call on Venezuelans to stop paying taxes, a move that would widen a strike that has already roiled world oil markets, and paralyzed industry and caused food shortages throughout the country. ``The repudiation that Venezuelans have for the current regime can take us at any given moment to a violent situation and the sacrifice of human lives,'' Ortega, president of the country's largest labor confederation, told Globovision television. ``We have acted with tolerance and patience to avoid being provoked.'' On Monday, clashes erupted between Chavez opponents and supporters in several regions of Venezuela, while the strike helped push oil prices to two-year highs. The government acknowledged production at its wells won't return to normal for weeks. Oil minister Rafael Ramirez insisted that Venezuela, the world's fifth largest oil exporter, could restore ``all operations within a month.'' But striking executives at the state oil monopoly, Petroleos de Venezuela S.A, said Monday that would be impossible, even with replacements of field crews, executives, tanker crews and dockhands. Secret police arrested National Guard Gen. Carlos Alfonso Martinez, among the dozens of soldiers who have occupied a Caracas city square for three months in rebellion against Chavez. The arrest sparked protests and a rock fight between demonstrators and civilian Chavez supporters that injured 10 people, said city Fire Chief Rodolfo Briceno.

Black Blade: This situation is looking more like civil war will break out. Also, even if the strike ends it will take several weeks/months to get production back to any semblance of normal. It's not as simple as turning a valve.



Black Blade (12/31/02; 18:14:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 93062)
Venezuela Says Tanker `Blockade' Stops Oil Exports
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Energy%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_energy&refer=topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_all&bt=ad_position1_energy&box=ad_box_all2&tag=energy&middle=ad_frame2_energy&s=APhHTJBVIVmVuZXp1

Snippit:

Caracas, Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuela's oil minister said foreign shipping companies unwilling to dock in its ports have created a ``blockade'' that is preventing oil exports. Foreign tankers are refusing to carry crude oil just as Venezuela starts to resume oil production, Energy and Mines Minister Rafael Ramirez said at a news conference yesterday. More than 40 tankers are lying off ports and refusing to dock, citing safety concerns. ``The tanker issue is our gravest problem,'' Ramirez said. ``We can't move our products abroad.'' The country's storage tanks are full, meaning that Venezuela has no place to put its oil, he said.

Black Blade: Funny thing is Venezuela is importing gasoline and drawing on external supplies and therefore slightly tightening supplies from the world market.




Black Blade (12/31/02; 18:12:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 93061)
U.S. on High Terror Alert for New Year's Eve
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,74291,00.html

Snippit:

NEW YORK — Americans were urged to be extra vigilant throughout the U.S. Tuesday as they gathered to ring in the New Year, but nowhere was security higher than in New York City, where half a million people were expected to mob Times Square for the city's annual celebration.

Black Blade: The world has really changed. "Interesting Times"



sector (12/31/02; 18:12:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 93060)
Cautious About Silver...
What You See ...What You Don't See
The big suppliers are in Mexico. The many deals between Vincente Fox and the President are unknown with respect to silver.

One can see that Mexico is receiving benefits from the US. Their trucks now drive on our highways [With unknown insurance coverage]. Some Mexicans now get Social Security. The border there remains unsecured and wide open even in the face of Al Qaeda infiltrators. So there are Mexican deals being done in Washington.

The Mint silver coin "Sales" which are really shipments for silver are way down in December 2002 compared with previous years even as demand and back orders are way up. So the US Mint is short of metal late in 2002, otherwise they would never let even the appearance of metal exhaustion arise.

The silver picture is clouded by those who wish it to be so. Unfortunately, for the vast majority of longs who speculate in silver the COMEX is a financial slaughterhouse as the silver shorts enjoy special tfreatment from silver longs [See Ted Butler].

And yet silver and gold cannot really be decoupled. Although the bond between them may be stretched.


Black Blade (12/31/02; 18:11:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 93059)
Coalition jets bomb Iraqi facilities
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2002-12-31-iraq-airstrikes_x.htm

Snippit:

WASHINGTON (AP) — American and British warplanes flying multiple missions attacked Iraq air defense facilities after an Iraqi fighter jet penetrated the southern no-fly zone, the U.S. military said Tuesday.

Black Blade: Apparently softening up Iraqi defenses for the eventual invasion.



Black Blade (12/31/02; 18:10:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 93058)
North Korea Vows to Fight U.S. Invasion
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,74282,00.html

Snippit:

SEOUL, South Korea — Just hours after the last two U.N.-certified nuclear inspectors left the country, North Korea raised the stakes in its standoff with the United States Tuesday, stating that war was likely but that invading American troops would be wiped out "to the last man."

Black Blade: Hmmm…. This is interesting.



MK (12/31/02; 18:05:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 93057)
CB2. . .
Please use it as you wish, CB. Taking in a concert tonight -- a Vienna-style New Year's Eve!! Old "One-Ski Rahlves" did it again. Got major coverage here in the Rockies. The Denver Post emphasized how he bested the "perennially strong" Austrian team. We in Colorado owe much to your great country -- our sister state in Europe. Your countrymen played a key role in founding the ski industry in our mountains . . . . . . Happy New Year, CB

The Invisible Hand (12/31/02; 18:01:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 93056)
Britain's Blair admits world economy is in danger

In the most gloomy New Year's message of his five-year premiership, Mr Blair admits publicly what he has already told cabinet colleagues: that fears for the world economy are as serious as the threat to world security posed by looming war with Iraq and the menace of global terrorism.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/story/0,9061,867251,00.html

"The world economy will intimately be affected by world events on peace and security, for good or ill," he says.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2003/01/01/npoll01.xml&sSheet=/portal/2003/01/01/ixport.html

==
So now you know it. There are threats to world security and to the world economy, but if those to world security would be removed, my namesake would apparently somehow remove the threats to the world economy.

R Powell (12/31/02; 17:24:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 93055)
Pizz // government silver buying
http://www.silverinstitute.org/news/pr06aug02.html
Last August 6th President Bush signed Public Law 107-201 into law. This allows the government to purchase up to 10 million ounces of silver to continue the silver eagle and other coin programs. The strategic defense department released the last of its silver long ago and this bill was needed or the U.S. Mint would literally run out in 2003 at current usage.
David Morgan has reported that the Sunshine Mint (the surviving part of the old Sunshine Mining Co.) has already started refining (producing) the rounds that it supplies to the U.S. Mint. I believe the legislation allows for purchase of these only after 1/1/03 (tomorrow). I doubt that any of this silver passed through Comex.
On the day Bush signed the purchase bill into law the POS fell $0.07 which strengthened my belief that Comex trading of silver is totally divorced from any fundamental information (see post 86336 from 10/1/02). I had thought the signing would verify the fact that the government was out of silver- a fact still largely either unknown or not believed by the market.

When was the last time you can recall any mainstream news trying to explain price movement in silver other than "technical movement" or "silver, influenced by gold,..." type statements? What moves the POS? It certainly isn't fundamental information.

Currently I'm looking for increased open interest in both gold and silver as confirmation that new demand (rather than just short covering) is entering. This will be needed for a real, rip snorten run away bull which I think is a real possibility with both. There seems to be never ending questioning of why the POG can rise when the mining stocks are down OR why POG can rise without the dollar going down OR why the dollar can go down without lifting POG, etc. Imho this is a case of being to focused on a much-too-short time frame. The corrolation exists but doesn't always work instantaneously as do laws of physics. Economic reactions are not that straightforward and clear cut. Economics is also the interaction of (pick any huge number) different forces. With this in mind, I can be patient waiting for silver to catch up with gold. Sinclair said recently that his buy stops in silver are at/about the 485 level. I'm guessing these might be sizeable considering his prestige and following, any thoughts on this??

I've recently been questioning my assumption that the so-called safe haven move into gold would include silver, especially in light of the fact that there are even many goldbugs that disdain silver. But, I'm still of the opinion that gold can't move much higher without awakening silver. She should move on her own but, again, no exposure. I've talked to some brokers lately that have reported "company" orders to steer clients away from silver trading. Even brokers think I'm crazy, "buy oil (energy)", they say, "don't you know what's happening in Iraq and South America? Don't fool with silver."

The link above is old but it may still work.
When you mentioned huge orders in afterhours, were you refering to silver stocks (equities) or futures?? Thanks for watching this, I'm not very knowledgable about stocks at all. I watch the XAU and HUI but own no shares. I also know that you have access to information I miss (hint!). Perhaps with a good move above the 500 level we'll hear from Ski, Solomon and some other silverbugs whose presence is missed.

Congrats to the contest winners!! I only missed by $48.00! When does the "Guess the price of silver contest start?"
Not the weekend yet but
Happy New Year (the year of the Bug!)

CoBra(too) (12/31/02; 17:20:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 93054)
Gold's Return and Revenge ...
Exceptionally well put - MK - May I use it?

... and yes happy New Year to all - I'm already there... cb2

MK (12/31/02; 16:58:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 93053)
Happy New Year!!
Just want to wish the very best to all of you for the New Year. Congrats to our winners.

My prediction:

Just as 2002 was the year of Gold's Return, 2003 will be the year of Gold's Revenge.

a nation of one (12/31/02; 16:48:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 93052)
Re: goldenboy (12/31/02; 11:22:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 93035)

You say: "...I disagree on the easiest way out
of this mess. Inflating your problems away is always easier than going through foreclosures and bankruptcies. Sure, the point is taken that there must be winners and losers."

--If all of the losing is confined to those who caused the problem in the first place, the winners will be everyone else.

Genoo (12/31/02; 16:34:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 93051)
Never mind BRAZIL but hey world......HERE COMES LULA....might just start 2003 off with a Bang
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20World%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topworld&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_windex&bt=ad_position1_windex&box=ad_box_all&tag=worldnews&middle=ad_frame2_windex&s=APhEqCxVSR292ZXJu
Boxman #93020 offers this timely 'tidbit' from Bloomberg..see URL above...


Brazil's 26 states are struggling to keep up payments on the 268 billion reais ($76 billion) they owe the Treasury, which took over the states' debts between 1997 and 2001. Santos, the only governor to ask employees to borrow to pay their own wages, is joining other governors to ask incoming president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva for a reduction in the amount they pay the Treasury.

Bowing to such pressure would put Lula at risk of having insufficient revenue to honor the nation's $300 billion debt, investors said.

``I would be very concerned if it becomes a trend that state governments think the new government will be willing to renegotiate their debt and relax fiscal restraints,'' said George Estes, who helps manage $1.5 billion in emerging market bonds at Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo & Co.


Paper Avalanche (12/31/02; 16:03:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 93050)
@ Pizz - Silver
Greetings Sir Pizz!

You mentioned in your post to RPowell that the volume in the aftermarket for silver last night was the higest that you have seen. Is there an online source for this information that you could post? I too would be very interested in watching that daily metric of the silver market.

Thanks!

Paper AVALANCHE

TownCrier (12/31/02; 15:52:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 93049)
As you ring in the New Year and consider your resolutions
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/StocksVsMetal.html
...take stock in the composition of your portfolio and your total exposure to risk. This page might help.

R.

Black Blade (12/31/02; 15:01:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 93048)
Swimming in sea of credit-card debt
http://www.presstelegram.com/Stories/0,1413,204%257E21478%257E1078763,00.html

Snippit:

So you went ahead and bought that new car last summer, not knowing how long zero-percent financing would last. Then you lost your job and started paying your rent with a credit card. You promised yourself you wouldn't splurge on Christmas gifts but there were so many bargains and you didn't want to show up empty-handed at the family Christmas Day party. Congratulations! You've spent yourself into credit-debt hell. After a relentless spending spree brought on by rock-bottom interest rates and a post-9-11 characterization of shopping as a patriotic act, many Southern California consumers are waking up to a hard reality: The party's over.

America is headed for a credit bubble. Credit cards are maxed, personal bankruptcies are shooting through the roof and consumers all over Southern California are rushing to the nearest credit-counseling office. "Right now, we are just booked up," said Susan Bierly-Craig, vice president of Springboard, a nonprofit consumer-credit counseling agency based in Riverside with 35 offices throughout Southern California. "The greatest influx is generally in January and February, so to be booked up in advance of Christmas (was) unusual."

Black Blade: Oops! I just ran across this - "The Party's Over"! That says it all. The Grasshoppers are just beginning to feel the heat. Think Argentina or Japan.



TownCrier (12/31/02; 14:57:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 93047)
HEADLINE: Gold ends 2002 a financial market star
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/1231BUSINESS-MARKETS-GOLD-DC.html
Reuters Dec. 31, 2002

NEW YORK - Gold recovered strongly on Tuesday after bulls swept winnings off the table early in the last session of 2002, a fitting rally for a safe-haven metal that outshone most financial assets in a turbulent year.

The precious metal was a favored alternative investment in financial markets dogged by dollar weakness and jitters about war, terrorism and recession, all of which contributed to the first three-year bear market on Wall Street in six decades.

Spot gold hit a six-year high of $353.75 an ounce on December 19, capping a sustained rally which has taken the metal from $254 an ounce in February 2001.

Slumping stock markets, a raft of corporate accounting scandals and the dollar's dive to three-low lows against major currencies have also brought gold back onto investors' radar screens like no other time in the past 20 years.

...The gold market is minuscule and just a tiny diversion of global investor capital can have a big affect.

--------(article at url)-------

Call USAGOLD - Centennial to place your order and arrange for a shipment of 'the Wealth of Kings' directly to you. Gold and financial security never goes out of style.

R.

Black Blade (12/31/02; 14:53:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 93046)
Gold Lease Rates Rise
http://www.lbma.org.uk/2002gofo.htm

Looks like the lease rates for Gold are quietly ticking up a bit. Fewer institutions are willing to part with Gold as demand grows and worries over ever getting back leased metal cause concern. It should get rather interesting this New Year.

- Black Blade

Off to the gym and then some Hungarian Partridge in orange sauce over a bed of safron rice with a few ice cold Negra Modelos! Happy New Year!

goldquest (12/31/02; 14:49:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 93045)
Congratulations to the Contest Winners!
A special thanks to MK and crew and to Sir Gandalf for an exciting contest once again!
A Happy New Year to all! May 2003 bring lots of Golden sunshine into your lives!
A special message to the cabal from Spot, Spike and Streak: FLEAS-NAVIDOG!

Black Blade (12/31/02; 14:25:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 93044)
Home Foreclosures Soar
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/real_estate/article/0,1299,DRMN_414_1642438,00.html

Snippit:

Home foreclosures in the metro area skyrocketed by about 55 percent in 2002 from 2001, reaching the highest level since 1991. "That is amazing," said real estate consultant and independent broker Gary Bauer. "I thought it would be in the 25 percent to 30 percent rate of increase." Homeowners most vulnerable to foreclosures are those who bought their homes during the past two years and have borrowed heavily against them, wiping out their equity. Many people in foreclosure have borrowed against their homes during the past 18 months, said real estate agent Ray Selix, who has been helping people keep their homes or buying them from them. Bauer said he suspects many of the houses in foreclosure are priced at above $350,000, but Selix said he thinks most are below $250,000. They both agree that the homes are "over-financed." Some people bought homes with 125 percent loans in the past two years, while many more wiped out their equity through second mortgages, home equity loans and lines of credit. "I hate to be pessimistic, but the reality is that if we as a nation do not start getting our budgets under control and start understanding money, we're going to be in big trouble," Selix said. He said too many people are borrowing against their homes for things such as SUVs and vacations. If they lose their jobs, they're in great danger of losing their houses, too, he said. "I think it is definitely a reflection of the economy," said David Binikowski, principal of Real Estate of the Rockies. "People tend to do everything in their power to keep their homes, so it is the last thing to go," Silverstein said. "But foreclosures also reflect lagging data. It could be some people who lost their jobs in 2002 could lose their homes in 2003. So foreclosures will probably get worse before they get better."

Black Blade: Another "grim" report this time from the Rocky Mountain region. The Grasshoppers are going to feel a lot of pain this next year. They frittered away their homes while they drank, sang and made merry during the "good times", and now come the time to pay the piper. As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver for portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.



Ag Mountain (12/31/02; 14:24:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 93043)
It's missing two elements

(1) Once upon a time...
<insert Christian's text here>
(2) And they lived happily ever after.

Christian (12/31/02; 13:50:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 93042)
U.S. in ground gold reserves are sold
The U.S. Treasury and the German Bundesbank swapped gold to make it possible for each country to sell it. Germany needed the money to pay down debt of its East German land purchase to the bullion banks and the U.S. swapped gold was sold to the B.I.S. to settle trade deficits. B.I.S. sold some of that gold to Switzerland and a little to the Dutch. Switzerland then took that gold and sold it to the ECB for favors into entry into the Euro Trade Bloc, while remaining independent as expressed by its citizens. The Dutch sold their purchase to the ECB and in return for a more favorable trade access to the Euro Trade Bloc. Switzerland now has a duel currency, their own and the Euro. Both trade freely and both are accepted in most places of business. England will join the Euro around May of 2003. Our Federal Reserve is a subsiduary of the bank of England. As the US$ losses value, people will try to convert US$ into EURO's. The Euro will then gain more reserve status as the US savers join Euro fractional reserve system. As the US $ dies in value it'd debt value will die with it. In the mean time the U.S. Treasury is borrowing gold from its underground deep storage reserves (gold not yet mined) to pay down it's expanding trade deficit. When the dollar dies the debt value held in dollars will die with it. Then the USA will be forced to borrow Euro's and start over. What happened to Argentina and Brazil will happen here in a few months. Companies like GE, F, GM, Verizon, IBM, and others with a large off balance sheet gold debt will soon be listed on the pink sheets where other frauds like Enron, World Com, Kmart are listed. Gold debt has preverance over bond debt and bond debt has preverance over shareholder equity. Gold is money, where bonds or stocks are not. The dollar is not money unless it is convertible to gold. US citizens will soon learn the value of 0 equity, 0 bank balance and the value of a $ that has no value.

Boilermaker (12/31/02; 13:41:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 93041)
Congrats to the Winners
**** $348.2 **** donnemuir
**** $348.3 **** Yellow Jacket
**** $348.0 **** Houston

This contest was a real nail biter. Advice to the winners; buy some more of the shiny stuff and let your luck run with Spot and Spike this year.

Boilermaker

Pizz (12/31/02; 13:24:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 93040)
Thanks Physicalman
Nothing like some potential buying pressure to help PM's.

Your comment of the government buying direct smacks of a two tier market, as we suspect.

Going to be fun watching the silver stocks for a while. Just a buck or two incresae in the physical makes one heck of bulge in earnings, since they mine in the millions of oz's.

Real hard to invest in silver with any kind of money without playing stocks. . .I will not play futures. I only own as much physical silver as I can carry, and that ain't too much (smile). and it sure won;t hurt the price of gold.

Pizz

physicalman (12/31/02; 12:05:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 93039)
PIZZ-SILVER
I noticed that you were asking another poster about US Mint having to purchase silver and thought i would tell you what i know. At the end of nov. the mint had available to it 7.3 million oz. of silver from the defense strategic stockpile (us mint doesn't hold this silver, just draws upon it) This counts silver in transit to and from its blank producers. The mint has 1.5 mil. 2002 eagles struck since then and is making its primary dists. buy 2 2002's for every 3 2003's they order for the new year. That would mean they are producing at this time 2.25 million 2003 eagles for the soon to come shipments. That will leave 3.55 million oz.of silver to draw upon.
Since they need to buy and plan ahead for a period of 4-6 months and average sales for most years is 500,000 to 800,000 a month they could very well have to start buying at the first of the year to avoid disruptions,BUT do not look for their purchases to show up on COMEX immediataly . They probably will try to buy under contract from miners or smelters just like the silver users assoc. members. With a 10 million oz. a month worldwide shortage between new mining, recycling and industrial usage the key will be when a large user, users start scrambling to get physical when more is being used than can be delivered from ALL SOURCES
thats the **T** date.
Plus the mint has benn paying the old, on the books price of 1.29 oz for the DSS silver. When free market silver starts to go into the eagle program watch the price spread to their dists. go up a few more dollars an oz.IMVHO

Gandalf the White (12/31/02; 11:46:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 93038)
Thanks Sir Hipplebeck!!
I needed that confirmation!!
<;-)

Hipplebeck (12/31/02; 11:31:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 93037)
Gandalf
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7BA129CBFE%2DD5DF%2D458D%2D87D1%2DF4EB1E86BCCB%7D
I think this is it

Gandalf the White (12/31/02; 11:30:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 93036)
TA TA TAAA TA TA TAAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!
THE POG CONTEST WINNERS are ...........................
Sir Donnemuir, with a PERFECT arrow, WINS the GOLDEN Angel!!
While both Sir's Yellow Jacket and Houston WIN a SILVER Eagle!!!!
===
**** $348.3 **** Yellow Jacket (12/24/02; 11:45:35MT - msg#: 92630
**** $348.2 **** donnemuir (12/16/02; 13:48:49MT - msg#: 91726
**** $348.0 **** Houston (12/13/02; 17:38:05MT - msg#: 91536
----
THANKS ALL, for the Guessing posts and sharing your thoughts on the IMPORTANT HAPPENINGS for GOLD in 2002!!!
Would the THREE WINNERS please advise Marie via email of the correct shipping address for your prizes!!!
<;-)

goldenboy (12/31/02; 11:22:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 93035)
@Christian: I really enjoy your posts; but I disagree on the easiest way out
of this mess. Inflating your problems away is always easier than going through foreclosures and bankruptcies. Sure, the point is taken that there must be winners and losers. The easiest losers to attack are the holders of OPM, other peoples` money. Therefore, you are right about the bonds.
The people who own bonds with their own money will be getting out, a process which is ongoing right now. However, pension funds are trapped, legally forced to stay in their certificates of guaranteed confiscation. Ditto social security etc. OPM. I am not saying inflation works, and there are some twists this time; as you point out, we only make 16% of our own stuff; however part of the problem is just too much stuff; too many chickens in every pot so to speak.
By the way, I really enjoyed your forestry posts on the 2 boards. May the thinning go well and Happy New Year to you.

Gandalf the White (12/31/02; 11:07:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 93034)
WOWSERS ---- An advance showing of the FUTURE?????
Here is what I and the Hobbits saw:
At HIGH NOON in NY, SPOT & SPIKE were starting to JUMP, when at 12:09, COMEX showed a sale at $350.0 (NEW HIGH for the DAY) and at 12:10, A TON of PAPER GOLD, 186 CONTRACTS (over half-a-TON), was THROWN at SPOT------
WHICH jammed my CRYSTAL BALL and AGAIN has me in the dark!!!
HELP with reports, PLEASE!!!
<;-)












krash (12/31/02; 10:50:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 93033)
I think gold leasing is the main collateral for the U.S. government's debt
re. my messages 92991 and 92904, I strongly suspect that gold leasing is being used as the main collateral in the U.S. government's foreign borrowing, to cover its huge debt and current account deficit. This would certainly explain the secrecy and irregularities surrounding gold leasing, and the constant fight of the gold cabal to lower POG, and their fight against GATA. Maybe GATA has information on the possibility that gold leasing is the U.S. government's main collateral for debt, as Harold James of Princeton seems to suggest in his FT article. If so, the cabal now faces big, big problems with the rise of POG since the collateral has been covering short positions and trillions of dollars of gold derivatives. The rise in POG may thus mean the U.S. government and its banks cannot borrow much anymore and are on the hook for trillions.

Thanks Goldrush (msg. 92998) for the information about 16th century Spain vs. the U.S. I seem to recall reading once that Spain's gold and silver from the New World caused a slow and steady inflation in Spain throughout the 16th century, which effectively wiped out all of Spain's gold and silver wealth from the New World. This has analogies perhaps to the inflation since WW2 which has greatly eroded the purchasing power of the US$, although the strong dollar policy since 1995 or so may have slowed it down. Now, it looks like the strong dollar policy is ending, either willingly, or unwillingly, as investors flee the US$ and it plunges in value.

BTW, I meant to write "Fort Knox" not "Fort Know" in my last message.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (12/31/02; 10:42:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 93032)
We Offer Gold IRA Rollovers, Large or Small Orders, Portfolio Consultation, Trading Desk, International Service...
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

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