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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...

The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 10/31/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Black Blade (10/31/01; 23:29:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 64482)
Oil fuels U.S. economy
http://www.washtimes.com/op-ed/20011031-79003836.htm


By Gale Norton and Terence M. O´Sullivan

Snippit:

In the aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks, Americans are asking our government to strengthen national security. The immediate focus must be to secure our homeland from future attacks, but we also must focus on decreasing our dependence on foreign oil. True national security must also take steps to safeguard the long-term health of our economy, the livelihood of America's workers and our environment.

It would also give America greater energy independence at a time when more than half of our nation's oil comes from foreign sources, a figure that is rising and could exceed 65 percent imports by the year 2020. The United States will always need oil imports, but the current crisis underscores the importance of having our own healthy domestic supply. A conservative estimate is that ANWR would yield 7.7 billion barrels of oil, an amount roughly equal to 20 years of imports from Saddam Hussein's Iraq. The higher end estimates equal 50 years' worth. ANWR could easily provide more than 20 percent of our domestic oil production.


Black Blade: Notice the authors of this article. Gale Norton is secretary of the interior. Terence M. O'Sullivan is general president of the Laborers' International Union of North America. Strange bedfellows indeed. The article is fairly accurate though.


Black Blade (10/31/01; 23:07:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 64481)
ORO - Middle East and Oil - OK, even coal.

I think that Marshall's position has been vindicated by recent events. I call that "forward looking." At that time if ME oil supply was jeopardized there would be competition for oil from any source (including that in the western hemisphere), and that by default embroils the US in the ME oil supply situation. As far as the Soviet military complex supplying arms to the Middle East powers, it should be noted that some of these countries such as the Saudis and Iranians had approached the US to purchase arms first. They were rebuffed and only then did they turn to the Soviets to purchase vastly inferior weapons.

I see no benefit to choosing any side or becoming involved in foreign conflicts that have no compelling US interest. In effect let them "duke it out" to the finish. Natural Selection is wonderful in its simplicity. The occupants of the Middle East appear to have learned nothing in the last 8,000 years and are not likely to learn much more in the next 8,000 years. Our involvement has cost several thousand American lives so far, and will very likely cost many thousands more. Unfortunately it is now a moot point as we are probably going to be at war for several decades against an enemy that believes they have nothing to lose and apparently do not fear death.

I agree that many of these people are not likely to be friends with the west and that includes both Arab and Israeli. Arab terrorists have murdered Americans (ex. WTC, Pentagon, etc.) and so have Israeli Terrorists (ex. USS Liberty massacre). Is one state sponsored terrorist better than any other? No matter who it is that pulls the trigger, the result is the same - you're just as dead. As it is we have "Reaped the Whirlwind" and now we have no choice but to get more involved in the ME.

- Black Blade

BTW, the US has huge resources of coal. Much is inaccessible due to environmental regulation and special interest payoffs to campaign contributors such as the Clinton-Gore executive order that places the worlds' largest reserves of low-sulfur coal (Escalante Staircase NM) off limits. There is one other such resource in Indonesia under ownership of Lippo Bank (illegal contributor of Clinton-Gore campaign funds). It is estimated that in the US there are about 350 years of coal reserves. Most low-sulfur coal is in the western US. However, there are environmental restrictions on coal-fired power plants that limit the amount of carbon emissions releases. Clean coal technology has a long way to go. Coal prices also tend to rise and fall in tandem with the price of petroleum.


John Doe (10/31/01; 22:34:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 64480)
tedw
http://www.gilder.com/AmericanSpectatorArticles/DeflationPrint.htm

That's a keeper, print it out and reread it often.

I'm not sure I agree with all the relationships and cause/effect presented, but it largely rings true -- as good an argument for a return to the low-tax gold standard upon which, arguably, the freest, most successful economy in history was founded (and I'd bet we wouldn't be rummaging all over the planet constantly in search of trouble, to boot).

The beauty of the arguments herein is that they completely refute both the current monetary order and the proposed, supposedly free-market, floating-gold Euro system, which, though a nominal improvement over dollar hegemony, will probably degenerate into a similar morass (or worse).

Maybe, after another 10-20-30 years of increasing global unsustainable boom, endless recession, deflation, inflation, speculation, lawlessness, and general stagnation, Wanniski's arguments will be acknowledged and adopted as a last ditch life preserver...then again, probably not. Jude's not saying anything here that prior history hasn't already proven. It's just that a lot of really bad ideas and reasoning have interposed themselves over the years, and that, IMO, has been no accident. TPTB know full well what a functional and fair financial system consists of -- and so what's the fun in that? To have a world of free, independent, secure, self-actualizing human beings?...TPTB already dodged that bullet.

BR549 (10/31/01; 22:25:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 64479)
The Academy Award Nominations are in for the top derivative manipulators. And the winners are……" Envelope please, rat-rat-rat-tat-tat-tat: Citigroup is still the leading firm, but the results will also please the newly merged JP Morgan Chase. UBS and Deutsche Bank complete a "big four".
http://www.riskwaters.com/risk/investor/end_user/index.htm


From the current issue of Risk Magazine: (The Rogue's Gallery is here and proud of it)--

"Risk's 2001 end-user rankings confirm that the JP Morgan Chase combination is punching at a heavier weight than either Chase Manhattan or JP Morgan had achieved before. Chase, which had built and advertised itself as a wholesale market-maker among over-the-counter derivatives dealers, and JP Morgan, an investment bank that had reinvented its traditional lending business with structured derivatives, lagged well behind Citigroup in last year's end-user rankings. These were dominated by the success of Citigroup, which was then still in the process of absorbing its acquisition of Salomon Smith Barney."


Well the results are in and according to the criteria for good risk management firms: (Let's see who was the former Secr of Treas under Clinton and he owns what?):

Citigroup still comes top overall in the 2001 rankings, heading a total of 21 product categories out of 95. But there was a big difference between the voting patterns of the two categories of respondents to the survey. Citi is ranked far higher by non-financial companies – who placed it first in 17 product categories out of 53 – than it is by asset management customers, who placed it top in only four product categories. JP Morgan Chase was placed top in 14 product categories, including forward rate agreements, by non-financial companies and, again, four product categories by asset managers.


JPMC How are you doing?: (Can the two of you out manipulate any three of your manipulative competitors?):

"Chase Manhattan had a broad client base, while JP Morgan has long been known for its innovations and depth of reach," says Bill Winters, co-head of global markets at JP Morgan Chase. "End-users come to us because we can now provide a one-stop shop for all their needs. Citigroup is the only counterpart with a broader reach than us, but then, JP Morgan Chase has only been around for six months."


Who are the best derivatives Asset Managers: (The German's win by a paper avalanche):

"The top-ranked firm among asset managers is Deutsche Bank, which won 11 out of 42 categories, including exotic currency options for the US dollar, euro and yen. Bank of America is another dealer heading the rankings this year. Among asset managers it was placed third behind Deutsche Bank and UBS overall, with five top-place product rankings."


What makes for a great derivatives dealer: (Well first you sell used cars, then you get your securities license then...)

"So how do end-users choose their dealers? Risk asked end-users to weight a range of factors according to their importance on a scale of zero to five – zero being unimportant and five being most important. The factors were: keen pricing for deals, speed of transaction, quality of advice, the ability to provide liquidity, the ability to innovate, the quality of collateral management services and – finally – an e-trading capability"


How dare they propose new accounting rules effecting
derivatives: (We don't need no stinkin’ accounting rules):

"Fifteen per cent said they had reduced use of financial derivatives due to the US financial accounting standard 133 (FAS 133) and international accounting standard 39 (IAS 39). Among US companies reporting reduced derivatives activity, several said they were dropping their use of complex options in favour of plain vanilla hedging tools, such as currency forwards, that more easily qualify for FAS 133 hedge accounting treatment."


How are these firms chosen: (I have more of my assets at risk than you do, No you don't, I do):

"Risk defines an end-user as one that uses derivative products for the original purpose for which they were structured, rather than to speculate on the price."

That philosophy will never fly.

And the problem with derivatives is……….

Regards,

BR549

sourdough (10/31/01; 22:18:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 64478)
Jipangu query
"Jipangu is the only pure gold company in Japan and its goal is to become one of the top 10 gold producers in the world. Jipangu is becoming a vehicle for Japanese investors to participate in the global gold market without currency exposure and is focusing on bringing the gold industry to the Asian investor.".....
Is anybody aware of how much capital this guy has to work with? He`s been buying up a lot of gold shares.
Anybody think he could gender a large enough investor following to "move" the market when he`s ready.
The investment money is certainly available if he can convince those "savers" to put it in his hands.
Maybe that`s the opportunity the Japanese need to get people spending again. A great windfall from gold.
There must be quite a few Japanese gold bugs already invested with Jipangu, licking their lips and salivating about the "good old days".


Black Blade (10/31/01; 22:18:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 64477)
EIA to issue weekly gas storage data, replacing AGA report
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=125004

Snippit:

WASHINGTON, DC, Oct. 31 -- The US Department of Energy late Tuesday confirmed its independent statistical agency, the Energy Information Administration, will soon provide weekly gas storage estimates. The move comes a few weeks after the American Gas Association announced it would discontinue its own weekly gas report at the end of the calendar year. DOE did not say when EIA's survey would begin, only that the department "is working closely with AGA to avoid any lapse in coverage of this important market indicator." DOE told analysts last week it planned to take over the report. But it was not immediately certain whether EIA would require companies to furnish the storage inventory numbers, as it requires some energy companies to do for other market reports. Currently, weekly gas inventory data is collected by AGA on a volunteer basis.

Black Blade: This has to be better than the AGA data. It was widely speculated by industry players that the AGA data was grossly overestimating injection and storage data as evidenced by several data revisions of as much as 1600%. There were even rumors of AGA complicity in NG price manipulation (where have we heard that before?). Not that any government agency is any more reliable or even honest. The EIA has had its own blunders over the years. However, if the industry was required to provide the data with 100% compliance the NG data should be somewhat reliable. The information will also likely be more reliable and available to the public "Free of Charge" as is the EIA and API petroleum inventory data.


ORO (10/31/01; 22:08:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 64476)
Black Blade - Coal - not oil, Israel - not oil
First, the issue of US support to Israel came with the territory of political protection of oil supplies. At the time Marshal spoke the US did not imbibe in ME oil. The Europeans and the Brits, later the Japanese did. US oil companies, however, did do a very nice profit on the oil biz from Saudi to Europe.

Marshal was wrong in that he was backward looking: thinking that a tiny group would be able to control a vast empty land surrounded by potential enemies anxious to obtain the oil. He was thinking in collonial terms while the Brits were being thrown out of India unable to simply kill the peaceful resistors the way they had done before because of what it would do the the English character. If collonialism was dead, the stability of the rickety governments had to be maintained externally. This made all of them inviting targets for Nazi and then Soviet penetration and toppling over. Which is what happened in Syria and Iraq as well as in Egypt, where versions of the pan Arabian nationalist movement known as the Baath party took over, a result of technical secret service and Military support left over from the Nazis taken in and funded by Saud.

The State department and the secret services did take Marshal's side and ignored Israel or supported its enemies. When Nasser took over the Canal, the Brits and French joined Israel in fighting into the Sinai in hopes of regaining the Canal and preventing further terrorist attacks from it. Nasser called on Saud and both called on the US to peel the Brits and French off of Sinai. The US State department and the secret services spied on Israel and gave Nasser the troop movements. All of this while France and Britain were supposed allies, not to speak of Israel.

The Soviets were cultivating Israel during this time, as were the French. The Soviets hoping to get a toe hold in the region and were very impressed with Israel's success in thwarting Jordanian Egyptian and Syrian attacks with much more powerful armories and with the best training oil money could buy. Later the French and Brits wanted a chance to reestablish actual presence and supported Israel a short while for this purpose, particularly DeGaulle who wanted to stick it to the Americans.

The US did not stand squarely on Israel's side till AFTER the 67 war, despite Kennedy's assertions to the contrary and Golda Meir's playing him against Krushchov (sp?). During the '67 war, the US sent intelligence from its off shore spy boat to Nasser, by then already a Soviet client, and after ignoring many requests from Israel to shut off the flow of intel on its troop movements to Nasser, they blew up the boat.

In the 3 sided war of West, Soviets, and Oil, the US took the side of oil every time. Against the West, with the Soviets, and against both.

Even in 1973, at the risk of actually having Nasser and Assad without any resistance between them and the oil fields, the US State department and CIA gave Nasser (a wholly Soviet client) satelite surveilance of Israeli troop positions, and refused Israel all the assistance it had promised as condition for Israel's support of the project to arm and train China and for Israel's not competing with US military development programs in air, missiles, and tanks, which would have supplied Europe with up to date equipment without need for American technology (and its high prices, and the same for South Africa and anyone else willing to pay the price - e.g. Iran's Shah). Furthermore, the arming agreement was intended to provide a carrot to prevent Israel from deploying nukes. Israel was running out of bullets as Kissinger and the CIA tops blocked ressuply. They were circumvented by a surreptitious approval for the shipments from lower level operatives just days before Israel was ready to nuke Cairo Damascus and Baghdad in a last ditch effort to prevent its final demise. Once the first planes landed outside Tel Aviv, the damage to the relationship with the Saudi crackpots was done and there was little to lose by continuing.

Eventually, the US had to press Israel to stop 101 km from from Cairo and not too far from Damascus. The Saudis threw a fit when arms continued flowing and Israelis were racing towards the two big Arabian capitals. They called for an embargo and managed to get crude prices back to only half its historical ratio to coal, quite a pathetic showing.

Despite all of Kissinger's attempts to prevent Israel from retaining the Suez canal, and to avoid opportunities for Israelis and Egyptians to meet, it was the first time Israelis and Egyptians sat together without intermediaries. The thrust of direct negotiations eventually led to peace.

It was a continuous Saudi Royal familly tantrum around the issue of Israel that brought the US to do a Lao Tsu (sp?) "keep you friends close and your enemies closer" by taking Israel into its busom. By intervening in all negotiations of Israel and its neighbors, the US had prevented (NOT PROMOTED) peace. Kissinger's role was not to bring about peace, but to assure continued war so that Saudis would not have to face Israel with money alone, but with heavy help from Egypt and Jordan. When they made peace, (BY EXCLUDING US INTERMEDIARIES), the Saudis threw another fit and financed Saadat's assasination.


In short, the US had taken a largely anti-Israeli position throughout all of the relationship. The only exception being Truman's overriding State department entreaties against it on the UN vote, and the deals cut with Israel in Kennedy and Johnson's time in order to prevent repeats of 1956 where Suez control could have returned to Anglo or French hands. And after 1967 when deals were done to use Israel as a local anti Soviet arsenal, and to prevent its further development of military technology - its biggest export at the time.


By the way, it was Saudi money earned from sales of oil to Europe that bought Nasser, Saadat, and Assad their Soviet arsenals. It was the traditional Saudi way to play Soviets against Americans as it had previously played Americans against the Brits and against Hitler. The house of Saud was allways unreliable, fickle, backstabing, and malicious. It considered Americans a threat in their open manner and pluralist approach, not an ally, and allways at arm's length.

Marshal was wrong because there was never a possibility of friendship of any sort with anyof the myrriad despotic Arabian leaderships, because they are natural enemies of everything this country stands for, including our "Western way of thinking", much opposed by Arabian throwbacks to a time before Byzantium fell.

The only question has been at what cost do we avoid a Western or US-Anglo war to take the oil and keep it, and whom would we have on our side (Europe, Russia, China...).


In the State department and the CIA, the answer was always "anything" so long as we are not thrown out, because war is very risky business and would definitely stop oil flow for a while, and thus stop oil company and banking profits (where the revolving door leads to).

Black Blade (10/31/01; 22:01:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 64475)
US natgas pipelines aim to add 32 bcf/day capacity-EIA
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011030/n30282392_2.html

Snippit:

WASHINGTON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas pipelines could add capacity of as much as 32 billion cubic feet per day by the end of 2003 to meet the growing needs of electricity plants, especially in California and the Northeast, the Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday. The planned increase would dwarf the average 5 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/day) of nationwide capacity added annually during the past three years, the EIA said in a report on natural gas pipeline trends. The steep rise reflects new pipelines planned to move gas from production fields in the Rocky Mountains to markets in the West, and more capacity to feed the New York and Boston markets, the EIA said.

The increase in nationwide pipeline capacity has been driven by a 17 percent jump in U.S. natural gas consumption during the past decade, due mostly to new electricity generating plants. Each new 100 megawatts of gas-turbine power generation requires at least 8.8 mmcf/day of natural gas fuel, the agency said. In 2002, an estimated 50,000 megawatts of new gas-fired power plants will be installed in the United States. ``That figure translates into 4.4 to 5.6 bcf/day of new mainline pipeline capacity likely to be needed for these plants,'' the EIA said.


Black Blade: Even so this is too little too late. In order to emerge from this recession we need a massive building frenzy to establish new power plants, pipelines, and transmission grids. We are probably years away from economic recovery. The energy crisis pushed the US into recession as has been the case in every postwar recession. Solving the root cause - abundant "Cheap Energy" is what will get us out. Oil and natural gas (energy) is the Life Blood of the economy. Without energy (oil and natural gas) the patient (the economy) is dead.


Black Blade (10/31/01; 21:49:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 64474)
A Few Overlooked "Bones"

Hewlett-Packard to cut more jobs, Gulfstream grounds 200, Telect snuffs out 210, Travel agency Thomas Cook plans to cut 1,500 jobs in Britain, Incyte Genomics Inc. prescribes lay off for 400, Aer Lingus clips wings on 2,000 (the luck of the Irish), Modine Manufacturing Co.loses 270, Swedish construction group Skanska on Wednesday said it will cut 3,500 jobs, Acterna Corp. disconnects 500, Deutsche Bank will more than double its planned job cuts to around 6,000, Singapore's biggest bank, the United Overseas Bank, said Thursday it may eliminate about 2,000 jobs, and the list goes on and on and on and on …..

The Global "Bone Pile" grows higher day by day with no end in sight. In a word - "GRIM"

- Black Blade


uponroof (10/31/01; 20:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 64473)
Innocent?
Pandagold-I greatly enjoy your posts. Allow me one more try at making my point then I'll leave you alone.

Please go back and read: goldfan (10/31/01; 15:18:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 64452) I believe this may be the best explanation I've read regarding satisfying intellectual liberal concerns on this matter. I only wish I had typed it.

Nevertheless, let me address this little broadbrush job done on 'innocents':

(10/31/01; 15:55:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 64453)
"Strange, how if we kill 'innocents' that is acceptable.
But when our enemies, because they are fighting something which they see as wrong kill 'innocents' then they are 'terrorists' and fiends of the worse kind."
************************************************

There is a distiction needed here.

Americans are killing innocents BY ACCIDENT as they persue an enemy, who by all accounts, has certainly drawn first blood.

Afghanis are killing innocents.....period. No persuit of military targets, just killing innocent civilians (foreign and domsetic).

BIG DIFFERENCE.


There is no defense for a culture which executes their women in public for the crime of 'showing their faces' as they demand civil rights. I have zero compassion for these cold blooded murderers. 3 days ago 16 Christians in a Pakistani Church were executed by gunman who were associated with the Taliban. They left the message that for every Afghan killed, 2 Christians would be killed. Would you please state a case in which American or British forces have committed such incredible injustices.

My friend, there is no middle ground here. It's a very plain case of kill or be killed. If you are a Christian, you are defending someone who wants you and your family dead. Please explain.

Black Blade (10/31/01; 20:18:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 64472)
Get ready for bad news
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/134360602_dunphy31.html

Snippit:

Hang on, we're about to see some real evidence of an economic downturn over the next few days that could shake the stock market, put pressure on the dollar and further undermine consumer confidence. Many economists have a sharp "V" shaped economy in their forecasts over the next year. Get ready for the sharp downward path of that forecast. The unanswered question is whether the decline will be so steep that the economy will have trouble righting itself next year.


Black Blade: Many data releases are coming over the next several days that should shed some "Interesting" facts on the state of the US economy. So far it looks really dismal and projections look even worse. Time to lock in hard asset portfolio like gold and silver while still cheap. There is a change in the air.


Black Blade (10/31/01; 20:10:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 64471)
Forbes Body Count
http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html

The Bodies still keep adding up. This tracker has been missing a few. Unemployed now number over 3.65 million. Tomorrow is the Jobs report and on Friday is the Unemployment Claims number. It is expected to look rather "GRIM"

Black Blade (10/31/01; 20:06:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 64470)
Cavan Man - Athabasca

Both Suncor (SU) and Syncrude should do well with their technology for separating the contaminant and oil. Suncor's operations were down for a few days for maintenance. I haven't followed these companies too closely as I don't hold any shares. My contention is that at the right oil price and restriction of supply, Canada could very easily become the North American OPEC with nearly a Trillion bbl of oil locked up in Tar Sands. Right now only a fraction is economic. Then at the right price - oil shales in Utah/Colorado/Wyoming become - shall I say "Interesting?" Cheers!

- Black Blade

auspec (10/31/01; 20:05:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 64469)
Research Department!
We have one, yes? Please tell me WHO owns the CB of Australia, RBA {Reserve Bank of Australia}? From tonight's Midas: "It appears that the vaults of the RBA are effectively completely devoid of any gold."

Let me just take a WILD guess, just for the sake of sticking one's neck out completely. Could it possibly be those that inhabit an Island nation, that also brought us the 'boyz from Liverpool' w the mop-tops? History tells the story of a failed empire that refuses to give in. Try to tell me that the Fed is not owned by los mismos. Once we can 'connect the dots' of WHO owns the various fraudulant fiat fornicators we will solve this fracus. Whoever owns the 'independent' CBs of the Phillipines, Finland, and Portugal need to return to 'Suches Up School', you've been had. I'm sorry, I mean your people have been had. You are second or possible even third tier 'wannabees'. Maybe next time. Maybe a corporate takeover?
You're {personally} OK, they're OK, quid pro quo rules. Everyone does what is right in his own eyes and everyone has his price. 1st, 2nd, and 3rd world {especially} be damned.

Pray tell me there is not a link in CB ownership among the Golden Isles, US, Canada, Australia, South Africa, New Zealand, various South American countries, China{?}, and who knows who else. Somebody please let me know when I start sounding too much like Christian! Tis not an Iron Curtain nor a Bamboo Curtain, merely an Elitist Curtain, and it shall be split from top to bottom!
Who are the sharks and who is the chum? Sri-Lanka and Ecuador, may I put this to you gently: Stay out of the waters!
Bad timing when we are at "war'? Sorry, little respect has been earned, NO benefit of the doubt. Silence is YOUR friend, TRUTH is aligned with the Constitution, the Bill of Rights, and the America that used to be, and which YOU oppose.
Homeland Security? Please spend greater than 'equal time' securing our American heritage, a heritage eminently superior than what originated from this great land.
Pleasant dreams,
auspec

The Invisible Hand (10/31/01; 20:03:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 64468)
he consequences of withholding the golden barometer from the economy
http://www.telegraph.co.uk
Breaking news on the Telegraph's site:

Bank urged to peg interest rates
Interest rates should be kept on hold until more information about the economy becomes available, the Bank of England is advised.
The Shadow Monetary Policy Committee, a group of economists who meet quarterly, said the economic situation was now highly uncertain and rates should be kept on hold in the short term.
"Whether the next change should be up or down is not yet clear," the SMPC said.
The SMPC added that it agreed with the decision by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee - responsible for setting interest rates each month - to cut the cost of borrowing in the aftermath of September 11.
The Bank cut rates by a quarter point on September 18 and by another quarter point on October 4 - meaning rates are now at their lowest level for 37 years, at 4.5%.
The SMPC's view follows a report by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, which said unless the economic situation worsens further, there was no need for the Bank to cut rates further.
However, economists are broadly expecting the Bank to cut rates by another quarter point when it meets again in November.

Cavan Man (10/31/01; 19:43:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 64467)
Remember the good old days? (Y2K)......
http://www.anbex.com
What's on my "A" list this morning?

1. Call Dr. ____ about possible smallpox vaccinations for family.

2. Check supply of potassium iodide (see link)

3. Continue triage on residential mail.

4. Kyrie Eleison, Kyrie Eleison, Kyrie Eleison





Cavan Man (10/31/01; 19:35:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 64466)
Hello Black Blade
Have been looking at SU and athabasca etc. SU seems a might pricey these days. Any thoughts on companies that supply the SU's of the world. Best....CM (thanks for your contributions)

auspec (10/31/01; 19:25:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 64465)
CM
Most interesting theory on the long bond. Will we refinance this shack for the fifth time, having started out at 13 & 1/4? Works for me, could be the closest to Japan I ever get. Midas thinks the long bond is being abandoned right before the vigilantes arrive, with the last 5 weeks of annualized MZM at over 28%!!!!!!!!!! I sure hope these presses are receiving regular check ups. Who would buy a 30 year with this level of dilution? Who would buy a 10 year with this level of dilution? Who would buy a ............?
We shall soon see, friend, and my bet is that this rabid/rapid FRN rescue resource relays reality.

I will sleep well tonight knowing that RR, Peter Fischer, and our crack State Department are working for our interests. On 2nd thought maybe a sleeping pill is in order.
Speaking of vigilantes, we need to watch this current crop of tumors more so than any in the last 225 years. Theirs is the end game.
No apologies for the cynicism, wish that I could, the deeper one looks the more cynical one becomes. Should have just stayed with Peter Jennings, but NO, the 'conscience' will not not play along.
Let's continue this discussion over a few rounds some time soon, eh? Maybe we can make it an international event?
Best to the Man from Cavan

Canuck (10/31/01; 19:20:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 64464)
So what's this Afganistan thing all about?
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/caspian.html
Snip:

An additional way for Caspian region exporters to supply Asian demand would be to pipe oil and gas south. This would mean sending oil and gas through either Afghanistan or Iran. The Afghanistan option, which Turkmenistan has been promoting, would entail building oil and gas pipelines across war-torn Afghan territory to reach markets in Pakistan and possibly India. The Iranian route for gas would pipe Caspian region gas (from Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan) to Iran's southern coast, then eastward to Pakistan, while the oil route would take oil to the Persian Gulf, then load it onto tankers for further trans-shipment. However, any significant investment in Iran would be problematic under the Iran and Libya Sanctions Act, which imposes sanctions on non-U.S. companies investing in the Iranian oil and gas sectors. U.S. companies already are prohibited from conducting business with Iran under U.S. law.

In almost any direction, Caspian region export pipelines may be subject to regional conflict, an additional complication in determining final routes. The Uzbek government is dealing with the threat of rising Islamic fundamentalism in Uzbekistan, Afghanistan remains scarred by over 20 years of war, the Azerbaijan-Armenia war over the Armenian-populated Nagorno-Karabakh enclave in Azerbaijan has yet to be resolved, separatist conflicts in Abkhazia and Ossetia in Georgia flared in the mid-1990's, and Russia's war with Chechnya has devastated the region around Grozny in southern Russia.


Nevertheless, several export pipelines from the Caspian region already are completed or under construction, and Caspian region exports are already transiting the Caucasus. While the hope is that export pipelines will provide an economic boost to the region, thereby bringing peace and prosperity to the troubled Caucasus and Caspian regions in the long run, the fear is that in the short-term, the fierce competition over pipeline routes and export options will lead to greater instability.


-End-

Excellent review; who's involved and why.

Black Blade (10/31/01; 19:08:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 64463)
US Reliance On Middle-East Oil - "Reaping the Whirlwind"

Here's the big problem. The Worlds producers of crude oil are still close to maxing out their capacity to produce in spite of cutting nearly 2 million bbl/day. Should the Global Economy rebound the demand for oil will also increase. The US does depend on Middle-East oil. The point is quite clear when a mere 3% reduction in oil to the US during the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo resulted in severe economic turmoil. Again the Iranian Revolution reduced global supply enough the effect the US oil supply. Each time energy prices spiked causing the US to experience two prolonged recessions. Today we import nearly 16% of our oil from the Middle East. We are now in a much more precarious situation should the Arab OPEC member decide to severely restrict oil supply. They have us by the "Boo-Boo."

Now we have an even more difficult situation, as the Arab OPEC members are not all that impressed with US insolence in dealing with the Middle East. The US has chosen sides politically and militarily in the region in a conflict that is absolutely none of our business. Is it any surprise then that desperate people should engage in unspeakable acts against the people and government of the US? I am only surprised that something such as the Sept. terrorists attacks haven't happened much sooner. We had our chance to wash our hands of the whole mess and let the chips fall where they may. Alas, it is too late now. Gen. Marshall (architect of the "Marshall Plan") warned Harry S. Truman of the dangers in recognizing and supporting Israel. He knew then that we would pay the price by 1) jeopardizing western oil supply, and 2) making several hundred million people despise the US and therefore become potential enemies. We were in effect begging for Sept. 11, 2001. In other words - we "Reaped the Whirlwind."

I know - before I hear the usual absurd refrains of "chosen people" - "God's will" and Anti-Semitic accusations, I only state that this analysis is purely detached from emotion and religious fervor. The type of terrorist activity we saw on Sept. 11, 2001 is far from over. In fact I believe that it will last long past our lifetime and that of the next several generations.

"Interesting Times"

- Black Blade


Cavan Man (10/31/01; 18:53:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 64462)
@cb (too) and US 30 Year Products
Thirty years is a long time to wait in a world where the next letter you open could be your last.

Prediction: Mortgage rates moving much lower.

Theory: There is a demand for 30 year paper but considering the parlous times we live in, that demand is diminished somewhat. UST is exiting that market to indirectly effect liquidity in home refi 30 year products. Customers for 30 year paper will go right to to mortgage product with no UST product to compete. Financing will be available and plentiful now that there is no competition in that segment.

You cannot refi at 1% if there is no lender/investor.

UNLESS THE BOND MARKET TANKS MUCH LOWER RATES COMING INCREMENTALLY AND SOON. (IMHO)......CM (believe it)

Netking (10/31/01; 18:44:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 64461)
I & II WTC - Silver & Gold recovered?
Re: "AFP - The bulk of the $US240 million ($A477.61 million) of gold and silver stored under the ruined World Trade Center has been recovered, New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani said. "I think we have most of it. I'm not sure we have all of it," he told a press conference, referring to a cache of the precious metals that financial officers with the New York Mercantile Exchange said last month backed up contracts trading on the market."

Sooo . . . is this a mis-print, mis-calulation, was there never more than $US240 million underneath or is there still more to find somwhere . . . . down the Hudson? - Netking

CoBra(too) (10/31/01; 18:34:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 64460)
Rick Ackerman serves a probability for Market Behavior -
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/ackerman/ackerman103101.html
- and there is nothing as sinister as a Plunge Protection Team - it's only the big boyz milking the sheeple and making the best of a bear market by (ab-)using futures.
It's just normal procedure to suck in the public, in order to get rid of unwanted positions - after all, the big boyz have to survive - so pass on the future non valeurs to the average guyz!
As it's not our fault, that they may default - since we've given 'em Zillions, made a bundle on the side, as our investors were taken for a ride.
Jeff Bezos, for instance had the fabulous idea to sell books without a store. He used the net to set up an international concept of virtually delivering prose, qu'elle chose, amiably, though highly non-profitably. Sad, or just too bad, as seemingly the Amazon.Com is akin to a river of no return, while Jeff is not a streetcar, nor without desire.
While i can't figure, why the economy is going "to hell in a hand basket", a mysterious acronym, or synonym for bust - after a boom, or bubble ... no trouble, the malinvestment of funds seems a "basket case" - ... also, see bubblevision CNBC and the quarterly of JPM/Chase - and the rest of the financial industry! ... Too big to fold?

Get your gold now and don't wait until you'll feel it's too late ... never is, mate - cb2






auspec (10/31/01; 18:10:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 64459)
ORO #64417 & 64434
Well done, as always, good Sir! I have entered a contest in which the winner gets to play 20 questions with the person of his choice. You are on my list.
Thanks, from someone peeking in and out of these 'parallel' worlds.

auspec (10/31/01; 17:28:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 64458)
TS
Keep speaking your mind, man, as long as you are able. That is as American as Monica Missles {just kidding}.
Again, the question demands an answer; Why do they hate us so?

Any relation to TS{HTF}? Just kidding again.
Best to you,
auspec

Mr Gresham (10/31/01; 16:52:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 64457)
Oro
Thank you for pulling so much history together for us. The game behind the news becomes so much clearer once you have awakened that thought faculty in each of us.

R Powell (10/31/01; 16:41:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 64456)
Panda 64453
How true and everyone is guilty of viewing the world through his/her own special, peculiar bias and then altering reality accordingly. No matter which side receives your allegiance, you can be sure God is on your side. He/She must be tired of fighting against Himself. Among the concerns of men, there is no truth.
Perhaps the earth deserves better than mankind as it's dominant resident.
I thought the Dow close today was a good omen for gold and silver. Perhaps soon.
Rich


Pandagold (10/31/01; 16:36:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 64455)
Written more than 3 years before the attack on NY
AMES RISEN, "Russians Are Back in Afghanistan, Aiding Rebels," New York Times, July 27, 1998
------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON -- In February 1989, the last Soviet troops wearily crossed the Amu Darya River bridge out of Afghanistan, a defeated army walking home to an empire on the verge of disintegration.

Now, nearly a decade later, the Russians are back, secretly engaged in the new Afghan war, according to U.S. and foreign officials.

This time, though, the Russians are after oil, as well as protection of their borders. In what senior U.S. officials believe may be part of a larger Russian strategy to reassert influence over Central Asia and its vast oil reserves, Moscow has begun to play a major supporting role on the side of a rebel coalition fighting a civil war against the Taliban, the militant Islamic group that controls most of the country.

While it has not committed troops to a country where at least 13,000 of its soldiers died during a nine-year occupation, Russia is supplying heavy weapons, training and logistical support to the Northern Alliance, the rebel group that is hanging on to the mountainous northern tier of Afghanistan. The Russians find themselves in loose collaboration with Iran in countering the growing power of the Taliban. U.S. officials and other experts say Iran is now supplying even more arms, fuel and other resources to the anti-Taliban rebels than is Russia.

Squared off against Russia and Iran in this post-Cold-War confrontation are Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, both of which are backing the Taliban.

And in a land of constantly shifting and often murderous alliances, the Russians are supporting rebel factions controlled by former leaders of the Afghan mujahedeen, the Islamic guerrillas who fought the Soviet Army in the 1980s with the backing of the CIA. A prime beneficiary of Russian support is the rebel group led by Ahmad Shah Massoud, who was once one of the most aggressive and effective mujahedeen figures in the CIA's covert program against the Soviets in Afghanistan.

The irony of the situation has not been lost on Massoud's one-time U.S. backers. "Massoud was the pointed end of the stick, the man we went to when we really wanted something done against the Russians," a U.S. intelligence official said.

Yet as the Russians move back into Afghanistan, the United States' role in the country seems to be diminishing. The United States, which took such an intense interest in Afghanistan in the 1980s when the Reagan administration viewed it as a crucial Cold-War battleground, is only a marginal player in the country today, overshadowed by the more direct involvement of U.S. oil companies, according to independent experts and officials from other countries.

The Clinton administration supports neither side in the war. It has harshly criticized the Taliban for its militant policies, especially its treatment of women, and refuses to recognize it as the government of Afghanistan.

The administration's involvement has been limited to support for international negotiations to end the war, which has intensified since the Taliban captured Kabul, the capital, in 1996. In May, Bill Richardson, then U.S. representative to the United Nations, visited Afghanistan to try to jump-start the peace talks. Yet Western analysts say the United States has not made an aggressive effort to curb foreign intervention.

A State Department official disagreed, saying the issue had been raised during U.S. efforts to mediate a peace accord. "We have been very clear that arms shipments must stop," the official said.

Russia has decided to develop a broad, strategic relationship with Iran, partly because of their overlapping oil interests in Central Asia, U.S. officials say.

Support for the Afghan rebels serves Iranian and Russian economic and political interests. The Northern Alliance acts as a buffer between the Taliban and the Afghan border with the former Soviet republics, while the continuation of civil war in the country prevents Western oil companies from building pipelines across Afghan territory.

Both Russia and Iran fear the potential spread of the radicalism of the Taliban. Moscow wants to insure that Islamic fundamentalism does not spill into the former Soviet republics to the north, while the ruling Shiite Muslims of Iran see the Sunni Muslims of the Taliban as bitter rivals. "The Russians and the Iranians are very concerned by the possibility of victory by the Taliban," a State Department official said.

At the same time, Russia and Iran would like to influence how the oil and gas riches of the Caspian Sea region are channeled and exploited. In fact, U.S. officials believe that Russia has decided it must curb the influence of the United States and of U.S. oil companies in the Caspian oil basin.

U.S. officials also say they believe Iran and Russia want to insure that many of the planned Caspian oil pipelines traverse Iranian or Russian territory. As a result, the Iranians, and to a lesser extent the Russians, have an incentive to block efforts to build pipelines across Afghanistan to the Indian subcontinent.

With peace talks stalled and the two sides gearing up for more war, frustrated executives from Western oil companies appear to be playing a more active role as mediators than the Clinton administration is. Unocal Corp., which leads a consortium that hopes to build a pipeline to transport natural gas and oil from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan to Pakistan, is financing a University of Nebraska program to train Afghan workers and teachers in regions controlled by both sides, and has paid for Taliban members to visit the United States. Bridas Corp., an Argentine company that is a Unocal rival and has its own plans for an Afghan pipeline, also has representatives in the country trying to cultivate both Northern Alliance and Taliban leaders.

Yet both Unocal and Bridas executives have said they cannot proceed until the fighting ends and an internationally recognized government is established.

Moscow denies that it is arming the Afghan rebels, and Massoud has said in interviews that he receives much of his equipment from the Russian mafia, not the Russian government. U.S. officials believe the rebels do acquire equipment on the international arms market, but are still convinced that both the Russian and Iranian governments are directly involved.

U.S. intelligence officials say both the Northern Alliance and the Taliban now field such impressive arsenals that they could not acquire, maintain and operate them without foreign assistance. Both sides have hundreds of T-54 and T-62 Russian-designed tanks, along with towed artillery, multiple-rocket launchers and MIG-21 and SU-17 fighter aircraft, according to U.S. intelligence estimates.

While the abundance of surplus weaponry left over from the Soviet-supplied Afghan army is being used by both the rebels and the Taliban, the demands for spare parts, regular maintenance and training have forced the two sides to seek outside support.

U.S. officials and others say Masood's rebel faction, perhaps the most formidable single group opposing the Taliban, now has a major supply center at an air base in neighboring Tajikistan, a former Soviet republic where some 20,000 Russian troops are stationed and where Moscow retains enormous influence.

From the air base, which they said was in Kulob, weapons and other supplies are airlifted into Massoud's forces in Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, Russia and Uzbekistan, another former Soviet republic, are supporting a rebel group led by Abdul Rashid Dostum, a former Afghan army general who has switched sides several times in his career.

Russian military instructors are also said to be working with the rebels, and one U.S. official said Iranian personnel are also on the ground.

A former Russian intelligence officer said in an interview that Russia's intelligence services are also playing a covert role in Afghanistan on behalf of the rebels. The former officer, who has defected to the United States and has been resettled by the CIA, said Russia's foreign intelligence arm and the military intelligence service have operatives working in northern Afghanistan with Masood and Dostum. The military intelligence service is responsible for at least some of the clandestine shipments to the rebels, he added.

"Massoud was one of the bitterest enemies of the Soviet Union, but the situation is now very clear," the Russian said. "He is the lesser of two evils. The real fear of Moscow is that the fall of the Northern Alliance would boost fundamentalism into Central Asia and even into Russia itself."

In addition to providing support to Masood, Iran is also providing weapons, equipment and fuel to a Shiite Muslim rebel faction known as the Hezb-I-Wahdat, analysts said.

"The Iranians have an ideological commitment to the Shias, but their broader strategic goal is to support anybody but the Taliban," said Barnett Rubin, an Afghan expert at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

Rubin and other Western analysts believe the Iranian and Russian support for the Northern Alliance was prompted by the backing given to the Taliban by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

The Taliban, with its base among the Pathans, Afghanistan's majority ethnic group, wase formed in 1994 in rural southern Afghanistan. The Taliban finally took Kabul in September 1996, ousting the Massoud forces and the government of Burhanuddin Rabbani, part of the guerrilla coalition that had ousted the Soviet-backed government in 1992.

Pakistani and Saudi support have been crucial to the Taliban's success. U.S. officials say Pakistan is providing arms and other military assistance, while the Saudis have offered fuel and financial backing. In one recent sign of Saudi support, Prince Turki al-Faisal, the chief of Saudi Arabia's intelligence service, visited Afghanistan for talks with the Taliban, according to Taliban officials.

The heavy commitment by their foreign sponsors has led to a military stalemate between the Taliban and the Northern Alliance, especially in the last year, during which the Taliban have been unable to dislodge the rebels from their northern strongholds.

"The flow of arms, money and other supplies into Afghanistan from outside has continued unabated," a new U.N. report on the situation states. U.N. officials, the report adds, have evidence of large arms shipments to both sides. The officials have witnessed air deliveries of weapons and ammunition by unmarked aircraft to the northern alliance, which are arriving at a rate of at least four to five a week.

On the other side, the U.N. report said the Taliban were getting foreign arms shipments that include the delivery of tanks and armored personnel carriers. A 200-truck convoy of military equipment recently arrived for Taliban forces, the report noted.

U.N. officials in Afghanistan also reported seeing foreign military advisers aiding both sides.

"The problem is that the Afghans still see that the solution to their problems come from fighting," said a U.S. official.
------------------------------------------------------------------------


site steward (10/31/01; 16:32:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 64454)
More on the WTC gold rescue/salvage effort
http://www.canada.com/news/story.asp?id={92BDCA71-AA63-4E74-8958-97DE3D8E8ADE}
NEW YORK (AP) - Most of the $200 million US of gold and silver buried under a ruined building at the World Trade Center site has been removed so the remainder of the building can be demolished and cleared away. "I think we have most of it. I'm not sure we have all of it yet," Mayor Rudolph Giuliani told reporters Wednesday.

The precious metals in a Bank of Nova Scotia vault at 4 World Trade Center were being taken away "because authorities need to demolish the building," said Pam Agnew, a spokeswoman for the Toronto-based bank. "For safety and security reasons, I don't want to give away any details that could put people's lives at risk."
-----

Seeing this level of attention serves as a very good reminder that the business of gold is serious business. Unfortunately, it often seems that that fact is lost on a great many people, both here and elsewhere.

R.

Pandagold (10/31/01; 15:55:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 64453)
Oh would some power the gift to give us .......
...to see ourselves as others see us, it would from many a wrong turn free us and foolish notion ( Burns, translated from the Scots)


Strange, how if we kill 'innocents' that is acceptable.
But when our enemies, because they are fighting something which they see as wrong kill 'innocents' then they are 'terrorists' and fiends of the worse kind.



goldfan (10/31/01; 15:18:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 64452)
@ ORO msg#: 64451, TS, on choices in oppression
In psychological analysis, a sane person is one who can live his/her own individual creative life and yet not irritate his neighbors to the point where they seek to expel or exterminate him/her. An open democratic society is one whose people are very tolerant of the individual eccentricities of their neighbors. Even in such societies, which comprise most of the Western world, when a person gets to the point where their individual eccentricities sufficiently irritate the neighbors that they want to be rid of him, he is said to be insane, or a criminal, and he gets expelled or locked up. I believe the same analysis can be applied to nations and cultural or religious groupings. On these grounds, therefore, the Taliban, and other groups allied to them, or militant fundamentalist religious groups that export their violence, are insane. And I am only happy that there exists some power, the United States, that for whatever its own good or bad reasons, has the military might to exterminate them, or at the least, bottle them up in their own habitat.

ORO As always, I really appreciate the time you take to post your insights.

FWIW
Goldfan

ORO (10/31/01; 14:21:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 64451)
TS - propose alternatives
There is a problem in supporting dictatorial or otherwise oppressive regimes in a variety of countries. Here is the old connundrum of Soviet days: what do you do in the case of a friendly home grown Fascist dictator being threatened by Soviet supported communist or far left socialist insurrection? Let him fall? Go in and defend freedom by going democratic when the oppressed public is leaning towards the dictator's former enemies even though they are commies?

What do you do if you have the same situations with military dictators fighting off "militant Islam"? What of Saudi that has been funding and exporting immams and anti Western hate?



jb (10/31/01; 13:47:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 64450)
ts(#6447)
ts becareful what you say on the forum or the master will kick you off.i heard of others say what you are stating and have been booted.
i see gold making a lower high again.the cabal sure worked hard this a.m. in n.y. stock market takes recession news "very well".when will this all end?
seems to me the usa is very confused on what is happening, andspending $$$$ like no tomorrow to cover up the confusion.they really have no plan .they are reactive and certaintly not proactive.

Netking (10/31/01; 13:45:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 64449)
Gold Should Perform "Phenomenally Well" Over The Next Five Years
http://home.flash.net/~rhmjr/index.html
An Interview with the smart Mr David Tice provokes some interesting comment, in a nutshell "Dump shares/paper and get gold NOW". You know who to call today, not Ghost busters but your friends at USAGold!

Some snippets:
Bugos: That sure can take a long time, particularly if the Fed continues to finance the bullish case (fighting the trend if you will). How long and how far do you see this bear market declining?
Tice: It will take years to correct the excesses. Borrowing a quote, we like to say that policymakers shouldn't mess with Mother Nature, and if they do, then they can either pay now or pay later. They continue to defer the cost of intervention into the future. This whole process could take three to five years to complete, and the Dow will fall to below 4000, and maybe to as low as 2000. (Ouch! read that again - Netking)

Bugos: Oh my goodness, who would have guessed that politics has anything to do with the stock market. What is your outlook on gold prices over the next five years?
Tice: I believe that gold prices will skyrocket. Gold should perform well in either an inflationary or deflationary period, and I am still uncertain as to how this will play out but I am very very (the double positive is not a typo) confident that the US dollar will decline in value relative to gold.

Bugos: Should investors transfer a portion of their wealth into bullion - why, or why not?
Tice: Yes they should. As already mentioned before, gold represents an outstanding investment in either an inflationary or deflationary scenario. Gold is the one asset that is also not someone else's liability. The central banks of the world will pull out all the stops to prevent the crisis from intensifying, and this will probably involve creating more credit, which again will be good for gold.

Bugos: Let's take you to task on that. If the investor had to allocate assets between two hypothetical options, neither of which were negotiable until maturity - physical bullion or a five year US government treasury bond - how would you suggest they allocate, assuming they are both redeemable for US dollars after five years?
Tice: I would allocate all to bullion. Gold should perform phenomenally well over the next five years.
------------------------------------------------------------
White Hills: Yes, the stage is set. I believe you will see Eurozone (the new emerging power base) playing a much more important roll in this and in the bigger picture in the days ahead . . . the script is already written my friend.
- Netking

sourdough (10/31/01; 13:35:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 64448)
First the shares then the physical to make them profitable?
INTERVIEW: Gold Ready For A Boom Led By Japan - Jipangu

By Jim Hawe
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Tamisuke Matsufuji has developed a
knack for making outlandish predictions that have a way of
coming true.
The president of the gold mining and investment firm,
Jipangu Incorporated, and author of numerous bestsellers
on contrarian investing, has forecast everything from the
collapse of Japanese real estate and stock prices to the
failure of Yamaichi Securities.
But recently his crystal ball has taken on a decidedly
golden hue. According to Matsufuji, 46, gold prices are
now sitting on a powder keg - and he is expecting Japan to
light the fuse.
"The price of gold is ready to take off. It could go
up to Y3,000 or even Y4,000 (per gram) easy...and Japan could lead the way,"
Matsufuji recently said in a recent
interview with Dow Jones Newswires.
Matsufuji said the rally "could happen soon."
Gold at Y3,000/gram is roughly equivalent to $764 per
troy ounce. Gold, which hit a high of $875 an ounce in
1980, has long been languishing in the doldrums.
April 2002 gold futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange
was trading Wednesday at Y1,054/gram at 0615 GMT. Spot
gold at 0615 GMT was at $272.10/oz.
The man the Economist magazine once described as "rich
and rude" admits that he is in the minority, as gold's
21-year bear run has scared away most backers.
"But I see the Dow falling sharply, the dollar
plummeting to Y80 and bond prices crashing. Eventually,
the only safe alternatives will be gold and shares in gold
mining companies," said Matsufuji.
"That is why I founded Jipangu. It's a kind of
'insurance' company." Jipangu was set up in 1995.

Preparing for the Coming Golden Age

Matsufuji was evasive when pressed for specifics to
back up his predictions, and prefers to fall back on
historical models.
"When U.S. stocks crashed in 1929, prices of gold and
shares in gold mining companies soared, and the same thing
is about to happen again," he said.
Matsufuji is so convinced of the coming gold boom that
he has been putting his money where his prognostication is
- and in a very big way.
Through Jipangu, he has been snapping up major stakes
in mining companies around the globe. He already has a 24%
stake in High River Gold Mines Ltd., a 22% stake in
Cambior Inc. and a 24% stake in Claimstaker Resources
Ltd., all three based in Canada, and he also has the
option to buy a significant stake in South African mining
giant Harmony Gold Co. Ltd.
Altogether Matsufuji has his hand in some 40 projects
around the world. Based on his own estimates, some 20
million ounces of gold, or 622 tons, are now under his
control. That is more than twice of Australia's 2000
output of 295.7 tons of gold. Australia is the world's
third biggest gold producer.

Japanese Investors Seen As Key

"I want to give Japanese investors the opportunity to
invest in gold and gold mining companies around the world without exposure
to currency risks," said Matsufuji, who
sees Japanese investors as a key element in the new golden
age.
Japanese investors will use yen to invest in
yen-denominated shares of Jipangu, which would then give
them an indirect stake in the various mining companies
affiliated with Jipangu, he said.
If they were to buy stocks in these mining companies
directly, they would have to buy the shares on, for
example, Canadian equity markets using Canadian dollars
exposing them to currency risk, he added. Through Jipangu
their investment is kept in yen.
"Japan is the world's largest creditor nation.
Individual assets total more than 1,300 trillion yen. If
just 1% of this money could be moved into gold, that would
instantly account for five years worth of global
production, and gold prices would skyrocket," Matsufuji
said.
"Japan has the potential to really move the market,"
said Matsufuji, who hopes Jipangu will serve as the
vehicle for pumping more Japanese money into the gold
market.
Matsufuji explained that the word 'Jipangu' was first
bought to the West by Marco Polo as a term describing
Japan as an "island of gold".
"That is why I named my company Jipangu. I want Japan
to again be full of gold."
-By Jim Hawe, Dow Jones Newswires; 813-5255-2950;

TS (10/31/01; 13:35:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 64447)
go bomb them all?????
Guess I am curious as to how different sets of beliefs get chosen. As goldbugs we have daily witnessed machinations to benefit the "connected" bullion bankers and their cronies; machinations that most of us believe will be the un-doing of the US financial system, or at the very least a tremendous source of suffering for citizens of this country. Few in the mainstream are aware or wish to focus on them. What makes anyone who accepts the fact that there is a disinformation champaign and manipulation of the precious metals markets, accept the view that has mobilized this country's military at a enemy who is?? What is this business of switching bedpartners randomly? one minute it is Noriega, Sadam, Ben Lauden all supported and equipped by Uncle Sam; none of the brutalities they committed when they were CIA assets were generating media champaigns to get em. If some one is evil, you don't have business relationships with them and you definitely don't support them. The neutrality advocated by our founding fathers has never been truly followed. Please don't throw Hitler and WWII out there as a rebuttal. The facts are that some wealthy US families, bankers, industry etc...supported his rise to power (some US companies continued to do business with him even after this country was in the war. The military path being pursued would eventually require the killing or subjugation of every person in the middle east; as long as there is a person alive who has lost a loved one to a cluster bomb, we have a potential enemy/"terrorist" that will one day be big enough to strap a bomb on themselves. Yet, when we talk of the tragic events of 911, I see some on this forum take the company line,that we've got to go get them (whoever they happen to be this time) despite the facts that we see historical patterns of this country's government involved in supporting/financing regimes that have committed brutalities on their own or at the very least are unpopular and have been forced upon the people of that country. The loss of life here was tremendous and tragic, but we do need to know the root causes. I think it is wrong to lable those who are questioning the what happened and why/how as unpatriotic or agents of Arab interests.

Tommy P (10/31/01; 12:58:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 64446)
the Gold found at the bottom of the WTC
http://www.mostnewyork.com/2001-10-31/News_and_Views/City_Beat/a-130434.asp
For Gold only being valued at $278.00 approx an ounce, its very interesting on how many officers were working security, and what is the CIA DOING THERE?

Clint H (10/31/01; 12:53:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 64445)
uponroof msg#: 64443)
uponroof
You write such great thoughts and I will always read and reread them. There is just one little distraction. The word "gummint" spoils the flow of your good expressions.
Thanks for your efforts.


White Hills (10/31/01; 12:41:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 64444)
The stage is set
Netking, Miner49`er, The stage is set and we await the players. Nothing the US can do that will change the way the Arab countries feel about us. Bomb or don't bomb it makes no difference except that they would love us to stop bombing so they can prepare and repair some of the damage we have done and also increase the propoganda war aimed at the American people. Time after all, it seems , is on their side. But, I would remind the world that when faced with the destruction of this country we will do what is ever necessary to keep our freedom and our way of life. One only needs to go back in history to figure out what we are capable of doing.---- Netking, in defense of President Bush in the Gulf war. It was Congress that forced the deal that we wouldn't go into Iraq and finish off Saddam. And , of course our Allies, after seeing the Divided Congress, thought that was a good idea. If he made any mistake it was agreeing to that stipulation. You must remember that Congress was run by the Demos who would have refused congressional approval without said stipulation. I feel the only mistake we can make is not what we are doing but what we might not do. White Hills

uponroof (10/31/01; 12:28:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 64443)
Old Yeller
http://www.newsmax.com/showinsidecover.shtml?a=2001/10/24/232724
Thanks for that link. I am aware of homegrown evidence and I understand your point. The NWO is coming.

For now I am thinking that this homegrown is not gummint deployed to thin the masses, or the actions of those related to the ultra right, rather those among us who are of Afghan/Arab descent and aligned with the terrorists. They speak our language, they are going to our schools, work in our hospitals, shop in our stores, eat in our restaurants, etc etc. They have been here for years holding each other accountable for their ultimate mission. This gummint developed anthrax could have been aquired by these people given their level of domestic infiltration. I will keep my mind open however. Thanks.

Mr Gresham (10/31/01; 12:26:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 64442)
"Safe" Paper
http://www.savingsbonds.gov/com/comi0501.htm
If you were going to advise someone who needed to buy a paper investment, it would be I-bonds, whose yield today at 5.92% will probably go down TOMORROW on its twice-yearly repricing. Also, for college tuition's tax-free interest earning from savings bonds, it has to be purchased in the name of the parent, not the child.

(I wonder if today's T-bond move was aimed at nudging the 5-year base rate a little lower before this pegging is done? Nah-h-h-h-h...)

Of course, with the word "gummint" applied to this paper, you and I know better, but each takes the steps he can...

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD (10/31/01; 12:10:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 64441)
A Halloween Message: Own gold... because things go *BUMP* in the night

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