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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 12/31/2000 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Golden Truth (12/31/00; 23:46:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 44801) To Black Blade. Howdy Black Blade, you are truly the "Bee's Knee's" in case you don't know by now, I love reading your stuff,and yes I do read every word of it!!! The last U.R.L you couldn't completely state was just perfect and the Grasshoper analogy just cracks me up :-))) Happy New Year to all the fine Souls who take the time to post and read here. HICK-up, hick-UP, oopps sorry it's all those Golden bubbles %%%%%%%%%% ;-} G.T Perplexed (12/31/00; 22:55:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 44800) Thanks Peter I appreciate your post to HBM explaining the different versions of truth, you hit me right on the head. Quote:Some of us believe that we are spiritual beings, sort of trapped in earthly bodies but capable of recovering our spiritual knowingness beyond the confines of our immediate life. This is not a concept of being a body that ‘has' a soul, but rather that of being a soul that has a body. This is not a popular believe in a materialistic society because it suggests that one is RESPONSIBLE for the condition they are in. I spent many years in Christainity and heeded the admonition to study to show my self approved of God, a workman who need not be ashamed, righly dividing the word of truth. Well guess what, the "Bible" is not the sole source of truth. Because it may be interpreted to prove almost any religious belief I quit discussing itWhen this word of truth tells me that I am created in the image and after the likeness of my Creator I believe it. And because my creator is Sovereign it stands to reason that I inherited that Sovereignity. God in a statement to another God states "Let us create man in our image and after our likeness and then declares after the fact that Male and Female created he them in the likeness of God. The only way this makes sense is if the Godhead is comprised of both sexes, an arrangement necessary to complete mankind. Why have I been told all my life that God is only comprised by good and that all evil is imbodied by "Satan?" when in the 16th chapter of Samual we are told that the spirit of God departed from Saul to be replaced by "an evil sprit from the Lord"I departed from my rule only as an example of why the Bible is not an appropriate topic of discussion for this forum. If you chose to promote your interpretation it will be more in keeping with the spirit of consideration for your fellow members to met in private e-mail, which I have done with several members. Thank you.Perplexed JMB (12/31/00; 22:00:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 44799) Hill Billy Mitchell Well if this doesn't take the cake...New Year's Eve and I'm reading Ezekiel 38 & 39 trying to find where it says Russia gets wiped out by Israel. It ain't there. Maybe you had another verse in mind.Also, from what little I understand about the Bible, it's my understanding that FAITH is something God gives to those He saves. It's not something you reason-out or get out of a Cracker Jack box. God gives it to you, free!One last thing. Don't worry about Sir Holtzman. God's in charge of this 'night club' and He'll save who He wants and when He wants to.HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE Peter Asher (12/31/00; 21:59:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 44798) USA Gold, Michael:I would say it's more of a contemporary western evolution of the Judeo-Christian ethic, and certainly not a female one. We would, in our family, one male and four female, all agree with you. I suspect your wife was making a philosophical joke with a straight face?Thanks for the tip on the cabbage, but I'm afraid we have no store open out here till Tuesday. We'll have to wing it the hard way till next year. Peter Asher (12/31/00; 21:46:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 44797) HBM, You have done a thorough job of explaining the viewpoint of the Bible as gospel. Holtzman has done likewise with the viewpoint of man as nothing more then a genetic entityNow, when you say "Part of the point of the Bible is that we cannot save our souls, else we would not need a savior." I think you state the crux of your philosophical/theological belief. Actually though, There are more then your and Holtzman's two theological viewpoints out there in the world What surprises some folks, is that within the majority of the peoples of Planet Earth that do believe they are spiritual beings, the western bible viewpoint is a rather small percentage. There are religions that believe we go through whatever earthly lives are necessary to "get it right" so as to move to a higher plane eventually reaching Nirvana. There are beliefs that you have one life to get it right and that determines your eternity. (I read a few years back {in western mainstream media, no less} that 80+% of this planet's population believes in past and future lives).Some of us believe that we are spiritual beings, sort of trapped in earthly bodies but capable of recovering our spiritual knowingness beyond the confines of our immediate life. This is not a concept of being a body that ‘has' a soul, but rather that of being a soul that has a body. This is not a popular believe in a materialistic society because it suggests that one is RESPONSIBLE for the condition they are in.What troubles me about needing a savior and the way that belief appears to be applied , is that one can do a lot of harm out there and then "Accept" the Savior and be redeemed solely by virtue of that acceptance. USAGOLD (12/31/00; 21:12:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 44796) To All: Best wishes for a Golden New Year. On this day in Roman Catholic liturgy, my wife tells me tonight, Jesus spends three days with the Rabbis astounding them with his knowledge and interpretation of the scriptures. Upon coming home (after three days out and about), his distraught mother asks him where he's been. Jesus responds, "I've been with my Father." I say he was obviously trying to say "I am not of this world." My wife says he was obviously a twelve year old child trying to stay out of trouble with his mother. The male viewpoint. The female viewpoint. And the essence of the Judeo-Christian ethic. Don't you think? With a smile and a Happy and Healthy New Year to all. P.S. We usually spend amateur night at home. Make sure you bring a cabbage into your home by tomorrow dinner time -- Tradition dictates that it will bring good fortune for the new year. SHIFTY (12/31/00; 20:58:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 44795) Hill Billy Mitchell Thank you both. Give her a kiss for me!$hifty Hill Billy Mitchell (12/31/00; 20:50:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 44794) SHIFTY @ # 44792 Sir $hiftyMy wife and I will be praying that you will not have to be squeezing juice tomorrow. Please feel hopeful. I truly believe that my wife's prayers rise above the ceiling though I cannot express the same confidence in my own prayers.HBM Peter Asher (12/31/00; 20:49:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 44793) Genoo (12/31/00; msg#: 44791) I see the same thing. I have already said that whatever special interests are being served by the new regime, there is a thrust towards creating more product, not more freeloaders to suck the producers blood. It's still a big guy's game, but we have a true fighting chance as individuals in this kind of setup. SHIFTY (12/31/00; 20:41:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 44792) Happy 2001 Happy New year Everyone!Still freezing my butt off and trying to keep my orange and grapefruit trees from freezing. The temperature is down to 28 again tonight. They made it through last night so I am hopeful they will be OK. If not I guess I'm squeezing juice tomorrow.$hifty Genoo (12/31/00; 20:03:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 44791) (No Subject) this GW dude Hey, we're drifting, let's focus if only for a minute, being, as it were on the very brink of a new millenium, and on the events that are going to start us along our new path.I don't know about you folks, but this one, north of the border as he is, is beginning to understand the GW team, and is beginning to get excited...which I know is dangerous and a setup for great dissapointment eh?Nevertheless, this W dude is obviously from the school of the horizontal heirarchy of power visa vi BClin who was of the vertical school [puns intended].GW apparently sees himself not only as the designated leader but IMO, more important, as just another player on the team, freely designating power. Further, the GW team being assembled is beginning to take on a powerful feel ie. this is a very skilled and experienced bunch...in no way are they random choices or token this or that. Maybe even powerful enuf to change the way it's become with markets all over the place, gold included...you know, when you can't quite put your finger on it, but you know your being f--ked with. Hill Billy Mitchell (12/31/00; 19:48:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 44790) Peter Asher @ # 44788 Sir PeterThe prophecy is in the Old Testament. God's word never fails. If God's word says that the purpose of the attack will be for spoils, it will be for spoils, regardless of whether we we see the spoils at the present time.Whether or not anything is pre-ordained by God and or we have total and complete control over our own destiny is an entirely different subject.I was fore-ordained to be born in the particular family that I was born in. I was fore-ordained to be born in the U.S. In neither case was I in control.Part of the point of the Bible is that we cannot save our souls, else we would not need a savior.VRHMB Perplexed (12/31/00; 19:39:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 44789) YGM Spell of the Yukon Thanks for the posting "The Spell of the Yukon." I have been considering posting it myself in dedication to you. I and my wife have enjoyed it, as well as "The Shifting Whispering Sands" as narrated by Jim Reeves for the better part of 40 years, it is an inspiration to the spirit everytime I hear it. May you and yours, Micheal and the Staff of Centennial and all friends of the forum enjoy a very happy and profittable New Year.Not Perplexed tonight Peter Asher (12/31/00; 19:01:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 44788) Hill Billy Mitchell msg#: 44785) Actually, I have read very little of the New Testament; I don't want to spoil the movie. (:<))I see the Biblical prognostications as projected conclusions of where the foibles of Homo-Sap will lead him to. I believe we are constantly in control of our destiny, that nothing is fore- ordained. That is how good may triumph over evil. A stacked deck would not enable us to save our souls.BTW, re Israel, what spoils? I think of them as a Nation whose primary resource is people. Now If Ness Corp. Does strike that biblically predicted, giant oil pool 25,000 feet under the Dead Sea than prophecies will be somewhat vindicated and the Nation could really be a target for forceful acquisition rather than hateful destruction. Hill Billy Mitchell (12/31/00; 18:54:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 44787) @ Cavan Man # 44782 SirSpending the evening with family. CM cooking dinner. You are Just too cool.HBM Hill Billy Mitchell (12/31/00; 18:48:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 44786) Mr Gresham SirI consider you to be one of the finest Gentlemen I have ever not met. Maybe, someday, many of us on this forum will get the privilege of meeting in person. I fear that I will disappoint many.VRHBM Hill Billy Mitchell (12/31/00; 18:43:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 44785) @ Peter Asher # 44783 Sir PeterI know that you are aware, according to Ezekiel 38 and 39)that at some point in the future Russia and her allies will attack Israel to take the spoil, yet they will suffer tremendous defeat. That event preceeds the time of the end, I think.HBM Mr Gresham (12/31/00; 18:31:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 44784) HBM Thank you for taking a thoughtful and respectful approach to tackling your difficult subject. I always appreciate when someone sticks his neck out, as you both have done. We build upon that, as we work together and come to trust each other.The schisms that make our world seem so hopelessly divided (read Israelis and Palestinians today) are only bridged when we can speak our minds freely, and then still be there for each other tomorrow.I trust you both, and your words about VALUES shine more brightly than ever. Peter Asher (12/31/00; 18:25:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 44783) @HBM Cavenan http://asia.dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/entertainment/afp/article.html?s=asia/headlines/001231/entertainment/afp/Russians_tune_up_for_Soviet-style_start_to_the_New_Year.html In another obvious break with Communism, God is mentioned in the new anthem's second verse,which celebrates Russia as a "holy country" that is "protected by God." Cavan Man (12/31/00; 18:15:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 44782) (No Subject) Spending the evening with family. CM cooking dinner. My friends, it has been an enjoyable year kibbutzing with all of you (you too PH :>). They tell me a 1000lb. Waterford Crystal ball will be descending in Times Square tonight. I hope it was made in Ireland as Mr. O'Reilly is fond of using other "host" countries. May the wind be at all of your backs this coming year and see you next...CM Hill Billy Mitchell (12/31/00; 17:28:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 44781) Journeyman @ 44241 Sir JourneymanYou are quite right! The word "crap" is permissible on this Forum, if by using the word one means, (Webster's Seventh New Collegiate Dictionary) "to throw a seven while trying to make a point. (Smile) Of course, you being the gentleman that you are I gave you the benefit of the doubt.VRHBM Hill Billy Mitchell (12/31/00; 17:21:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 44780) Sierra Madre @ # 44719 SirYour post was very enjoyable and informative.You say we are in an age of Capital Consumption.I think maybe you have nailed something for me with this comment. I knew for sure that we, in the US at least, had a problem with consumption. I just did not put it in this perspective.It seems to me that when the populace consumes more than they produce through debt because they have no savings (capital) that the end is soon. Of course we have consumed more than we have produced for some time because other nations have been willing to absorb it through debt, holding FRNS, hence a $400 billion balance of payments decifit.I for one would not lend to an entity that continually consumed more than it produced once that entity's debt approached the utility value of its total assets, unless of course, I had a sure-fire way of forclosing on that entity.The end is coming if it is not already here.My small pile of accumulated physical is looking mighty big lately.Thanks again for your contributions to this forum.Very respectfully,HBM Hill Billy Mitchell (12/31/00; 16:45:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 44779) Peter Asher @ # 44777 Sir PeterWe already are really be in trouble!HBM Cavan Man (12/31/00; 15:52:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 44778) Sierra Madre I truly enjoy reading your thoughts. I used to have a friend who lived in Queretaro, Guanajuato who once said:"English is the language of business; Italian, love; French, politics; but, my friend; if you want to speak directly to God, you speak Spanish."We're doing a good job these days continuing to lose our collective soul. As I was fond of saying on the rugby pitch, "nicely done lads". Lamenting and thinking....CM Peter Asher (12/31/00; 15:43:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 44777) HBM, Holtzman Sir Holtzman says:"American voters did not elect the candidate they really wanted because they did not think that honesty could win..."HBM rebuttal:"I beg to differ. Americans did not elect a truly honest person for president because they did not desire a truly honest person for president." No! A truly honest person would never get the financial or power broker backing to even begin to build a meaningfull voter base. If such a person did get that far through personal or group financing, the Media would attack unmercifully with cynical disbelieve and mal-intent. Those who live by the twisted word could never imagine the feeling and beingness of honesty.If such a person could survive even that, then some other Shiran-Shiran will be manipulated and assisted into the campaign hall kitchen along with a shill to route the candidate his way.To paraphrase Sir Walter Scott: "Breaths there a man with soul so dead, who never to himself hath said" I would like to be led by an honest man.True HBM, the freeloaders and the financial criminals would not want an honest man for president, but the majority woul, still. When that ceases to exist, we will really be in trouble! Cavan Man (12/31/00; 15:15:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 44776) Sir HBM I'll come back tomorrow or sometime soon and read the whole of your reply to Holtzman. I thank you for your time in responding to Holtzman. I've been wanting to take a run at him myself on numerous occasions but simply cannot take the time away from family and job. Certainly would like to make your acquaintance some wintry day.Put me in the camp of caring that Holtzman "doesn't care".Kyrie eleison; blessed be our God now and forever unto ages of ages. Amen +...CM Peter Asher (12/31/00; 15:13:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 44775) J-Bear, Still can't get there from here Your E-mails arrive but the replys still bounce."Settling down" in this case means the job is up to where subs can move forward independent of my own "hands on" work.I am at the point where every time I start a post, thesubset of it leads to the full spectrum of our topics and I start writing "The Book."Money truly defined, Inflation truly explained, Debttruly delineated. Fair Exchange expounded on; It all comes together under the common denominator of Fiat being a record of entitlement.I am now looking at the empirical defining of debt as"Product received in advance of contribution." My personal thrust is to circumvent the Monetarist process of evaluation as I see that as reviewing the statistical results rather then cause and effect.Prediction is a whole other endeavor entirely. I see the Dow is maintaining my forecast of gyrating around the 10,600 pivot. YGM (12/31/00; 15:13:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 44774) For my "Secret Valley Family" & All Miners of Gold & 'Truth' Bard of the Yukon...... The Spell of the Yukonby Robert W. Service--------------------------------------------------------------------------------I wanted the gold, and I sought it, I scrabbled and mucked like a slave.Was it famine or scurvy -- I fought it; I hurled my youth into a grave.I wanted the gold, and I got it -- Came out with a fortune last fall, --Yet somehow life's not what I thought it, And somehow the gold isn't all.No! There's the land. (Have you seen it?) It's the cussedest land that I know,From the big, dizzy mountains that screen it To the deep, deathlike valleys below.Some say God was tired when He made it; Some say it's a fine land to shun;Maybe; but there's some as would trade it For no land on earth -- and I'm one.You come to get rich (damned good reason); You feel like an exile at first;You hate it like hell for a season, And then you are worse than the worst.It grips you like some kinds of sinning; It twists you from foe to a friend;It seems it's been since the beginning; It seems it will be to the end.I've stood in some mighty-mouthed hollow That's plumb-full of hush to the brim;I've watched the big, husky sun wallow In crimson and gold, and grow dim,Till the moon set the pearly peaks gleaming, And the stars tumbled out, neck and crop;And I've thought that I surely was dreaming, With the peace o' the world piled on top.The summer -- no sweeter was ever; The sunshiny woods all athrill;The grayling aleap in the river, The bighorn asleep on the hill.The strong life that never knows harness; The wilds where the caribou call;The freshness, the freedom, the farness -- O God! how I'm stuck on it all.The winter! the brightness that blinds you, The white land locked tight as a drum,The cold fear that follows and finds you, The silence that bludgeons you dumb.The snows that are older than history, The woods where the weird shadows slant;The stillness, the moonlight, the mystery, I've bade 'em good-by -- but I can't.There's a land where the mountains are nameless, And the rivers all run God knows where;There are lives that are erring and aimless, And deaths that just hang by a hair;There are hardships that nobody reckons; There are valleys unpeopled and still;There's a land -- oh, it beckons and beckons, And I want to go back -- and I will.They're making my money diminish; I'm sick of the taste of champagne.Thank God! when I'm skinned to a finish I'll pike to the Yukon again.I'll fight -- and you bet it's no sham-fight; It's hell! -- but I've been there before;And it's better than this by a damsite -- So me for the Yukon once more.There's gold, and it's haunting and haunting; It's luring me on as of old;Yet it isn't the gold that I'm wanting So much as just finding the gold.It's the great, big, broad land 'way up yonder, It's the forests where silence has lease;It's the beauty that thrills me with wonder, It's the stillness that fills me with peace--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Happy New Year! and may God Bless!......YGM. YGM (12/31/00; 14:46:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 44773) Some Thoughts for The New Year....... "In this life we can do no great things: Only small things with great love." Mother Teresa "The best portion of a good man's life is his little, nameless, unremembered acts of kindness and of love." William Wordsworth....."Finish each day and be done with it. You have done what you could; Some blunders and absurdities have crept in; Forget them as soon as you can. Tomorrow is a new day; You shall begin it serenely And with too high a spirit To be encumbered with your old nonsense." Ralph Waldo Emerson..... Work Let me do my work from day to day, In field or forest, at desk or loom, In the roaring marketplace Or tranquil room: Let me find it in my heart to say, When vagrant wishes beckon me astray, "This is my work; My blessing not my doom; Of all who live, I am the one by whom This work can best be done In the right way." Then I shall see it Not to great nor small, To suit my spirit and prove my powers; Then I shall cheerfully greet The laboring hours, And cheerfully turn, When the long shadows fall At eventide, to play and love and rest, Because I know For me my work is best. Henry van Dyke..... I N S T R U C T I O N S F O R L I F E-Dali Lama 1. Take into account that great love and great achievements involve great risk. 2. When you lose, don't lose the lesson. 3. Follow the three Rs: Respect for self Respect for others and Responsibility for all your actions. 4. Remember that not getting what you want is sometimes a wonderful stroke of luck. 5. Learn the rules so you know how to break them properly. 6. Don't let a little dispute injure a great friendship. 7. When you realise you've made a mistake, take immediate steps to correct it. 8. Spend some time alone every day. 9. Open your arms to change, but don't let go of your values. 10. Remember that silence is sometimes the best answer. 11. Live a good, honourable life. Then when you get older and think back, you'll be able to enjoy it a second time. 12. A loving atmosphere in your home is the foundation for your life. 13. In disagreements with loved ones, deal only with the current situation. Don't bring up the past. 14. Share your knowledge. It's a way to achieve immortality. 15. Be gentle with the earth. 16. Once a year, go someplace you've never been before. 17. Remember that the best relationship is one in which your love for each other exceeds your need for each other. 18. Judge your success by what you had to give up in order to get it. 19. Approach love and cooking with reckless abandon YGM (12/31/00; 14:40:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 44772) BEST WISHES & HOPES FOR THE NEW YEAR! TO ALL WHO READ & POST HERE REGARDLESS OF BELIEFS........ ...and special "Thanks" for all you do Randy "The Watchman" in the "Tower".....AND you Michael K.(USA Gold).....May we all find the world in peace next year.....Go Gold, Go Howe & GATA and "GO PHYSICAL"......YGM..................................................DESERATAGo placidly amid the noise and haste, & remember what peace there may be in silence.AS FAR as possible be on good terms with all persons. Speak your truth quietly & clearly; and listen to others, even the dull and ignorant; they too have their story.Avoid loud & agressive persons, they are vexations to the spirit. If you compare yourself with others, you may become vain & bitter; for always there will be greater and lessor persons than yourself. Enjoy your acheivements as well as your plans.Keep interested in your own career, however humble; it is a real possession in the changing fortunes of time. Exercise caution in your business affairs; for the world is full of trickery. But let this not blind you to what virtue there is; many people strive for high ideals; Be yourself. Especially, do not feign affection. Neither be cynical about love; for in the face of all aridity & disenchantment it transcends time and space.Take kindly the counsel of the years, gracefully surrendering the things of youth. Nurture strength of Spirit to shield you in sudden misfortune. But do not distress yourself with imaginings. Many fears are born of fatigue and loneliness. Beyond a wholesome disipline, be gentle with yourself.You are a child of the universe, no less than the trees & the stars; you have a right to be here. And whether or not it is clear to you no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should. Therfore be at peace with God, whatever you conceive God to be, and whatever your labors & aspirations, in the noisy confusion of life keep peace with your soul. With all its sham, drudgery & broken dreams, it is still a beautiful world. Be careful. Take Care. Strive to be Happy. Hill Billy Mitchell (12/31/00; 14:05:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 44771) Holtzman @ # 42604 Response to Holtzman - Part 1Sir Holtzman, you say:"Those comparatively few of us who post at this forum have an obligation to the many who read …By clearly and thoroughly challenging suppositions until their truth or falsehood is made plain, we provide a service which hopefully improves the lives of those who partake of it."Mr Holtzman:I accept your challenge:You have made some suppositions (to use your language) concerning which truth or falsehood should be made plain. I shall perform my obligation. I shall attempt to clearly and thoroughly challenge your position concerning the existence of God. I certainly cannot prove that you do not care if God exists. I care that you care. I should say something about myself because I am going to argue from the very position which you hold to be frightening and dangerous, that of FAITH.I am not a pastor, preacher, or learned theologian. I have no formal education in this area whatever. I have gathered unto the Lord Jesus with small groups for 29 years. I have avoided the traditional church, which has never satisfied my need for worshiping and remembering the body and the blood of Jesus Christ. My only qualification is that I have studied the Bible many hours before and after I became an unquestioning believer in the WORD. I have a couple of rules for myself. First of all I disregard all that man has ever taught me as best I can when I study the Bible; start with a clean slate so-to-speak, removing all preconceived ideas as best I can. Secondly I stick to the King James without asserting infallibility as to the translation. Thirdly I read the King James by omitting all words which are italicized simply because the are words inserted by the translators, words which were not in the original Hebrew and Greek manuscripts. When I quote scripture you will note that I leave out the italicized words as I have found that often the italics put limits to the meaning more often than not and for this reason I simply leave them out.In my younger days I took an approach similar to yours, Sir Holtzman, concerning the personhood of the Holy Spirit. I could not discover enough information to convince me that the Holy Spirit was a third and separate person apart from God, the Father, and God, the Son. I did not put my position into your words; however my position effectively was that I basically did not care whether or not The Holy Spirit was a separate and distinct person from the Father and the Son. It was easy for me to be satisfied with the existence of a common spirit shared by both the father and son and ultimately those humans who would be filled with that same Spirit. One day I discovered that the Holy Spirit was a separate and distinct person of the Godhead. I came upon this truth unexpectedly. I came upon this information not because I was in pursuit of it but because God chose to show it to me. I am a very simple man, not involved in clerical activities, and have little to offer in an authoritative way. I can, however, state with certainty that when God shows one something directly by His Spirit, something which one may not even care about, that person will never again doubt the truth of the matter. Sir Holtzman, you say:"The best word I've found to describe myself is apathist: I simply don't care whether there is a god or not." (I found it interesting that you chose not to capitalize 'god'.My response:I must say that I was taken aback by your revelation to the readers, those to whom you express such an obligation. I do not know what you mean to accomplish by such a forthcoming. What you have put forth is the most disturbing religious argument I have ever heard. It is disturbing not because of any profundity but rather because it is cloaked in words which seem to be so innocent. I can tell you that I do not consider any theological position innocent. The word cloaked as I use it entails deception for, you see, I am certain that such a position involves deception. There is, I believe, a type of deception which is not intentional. Let us call that type of deception self-deception. We are warned to avoid this type of deception by the writer of 1st Corinthians - Let no man deceive himself!Now when one posits that he does not care as to the existence of god there are corollaries which follow:1) He cares not whether the Bible is true or false. It makes no difference.2) He cares not about the consequences of his position one way of the other.3) He has a purpose in making such a position public, else he would keep his thoughts to himself. In other words any non-reflex action has a purpose. He must have some reason for telling others that he doesn't care. What could his reason be:a) To convince others of his persuasion?b) To stimulate a discussion of the matter?c) To cast doubt upon those who would disagree?d) To evangelize? To make converts? To proselyte?4) He has not been able to come to the knowledge of the truth of the matter and is wearied with the pursuit of that particular truthAt least one issue must be addressed: - Are there and consequences for being unconcerned with the existence of God, should God not only exist, but also hold one responsible for the acknowledgement of His existence?HBM Hill Billy Mitchell (12/31/00; 14:03:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 44770) Holtzman @ # 42604 Response to Holtzman - Part 2Sir Holtzman:When I was approximately 17 years old I wrote a poem entitled, "Ode to a Cow". The poem was written to satisfy a requirement in my high school English IV class. I do not remember the words of the poem nor the theme I attempted to convey. I expect that I will run across it in my mother's memorabilia when she passes on. I do, however, remember the title and my high school teacher's comment, in red pencil, when it was returned to me with just a passing grade. My teacher's comment about the poem was this: -- "Very philosophical in a shallow kind of way". Some 35 years have passed and I still remember the exact words. The words contained in my teacher's comment embarrassed me at the time. Today I cherish the wisdom of my teacher's mild rebuke.Again I embark upon a philosophical writing. This writing is in response to your post # 42604 which was, in my opinion, highly philosophical and powerfully written.I am going to excerpt parts of your post in a manner which actually results in paraphrase. How you say what you say prompts me to use this method. I do so in order to communicate my gleanings from your post. I will attempt to exercise great care so as to avoid any distortions of your thoughts. I realize I run great risks when I remove excerpts from the full context of what you have written; however I can find no other way to get this done apart from re-posting your words in their entirety.I will first post several "paraphrased excerpts" by my assigned #. Then I will follow up with a repost of each "paraphrased excerpt" along with my comments and a rebuttal in some cases.Please forgive me if I do badly and misconstrue your thoughts by my method.Paraphrased excerpts # 1:"...off-topic...subjects of discussion...provide very good insight into...motivations...the appearance of such off-center commentary gives the rest of us a chance to see what motivates...while...embarrassing and annoying but not quite intolerable...such postings provide the rest of us with far more than their authors intended. Such postings allow us to see into their hearts and find out what makes them tick...my Doubting Thomas view has served me quite well to date..."Paraphrased excerpts # 2:"...I am neither Christian nor Jewish nor Muslim nor am I an Atheist...The best word I have found to describe myself is apathist: I simply don't care whether there is a god or not...I care about...I care about the prospects of a happy life...good intentions and good acts matter...the belief system is not matters...the end justifies the means...no matter what one believes what matters is only the intent and actions inspired by that belief system...I disdain bad intentions and bad acts no matter the belief system...Paraphrased excerpts # 3:"...the vast majority of humans are quite willing to faithfully believe anything they find in print...Faith does not require clear thinking...a frightening large number of people have a view in which historical fact is irrelevant... blindly accepting as fact a single source of words...or a person's interpretation of those words...never feeling the need to seek corroborating evidence...in the world of questionable conclusions...equally faithful folk come away from their Bibles with opposite interpretations...nothing rational can be said...which will have the slightest impact because minds are so firmly made up that they do not hear you.Paraphrased excerpts # 4:"I am not certain about the correctness of my impressions...I am a Doubting Thomas...so far I am pleased with the results of my Doubting Thomas view...I try to look at the world for what it really is, an exciting and dangerous place...but not a world which is specifically out to get me..."Paraphrased excerpts # 5:We are all wolves and we are all sheep...I find Machiavelli's point of view refreshing because he saw this dichotomy of human nature and laid out clearly how to make the best of it...We are all wolves in sheep's clothing...one must embrace this dichotomy, and even rejoice in it..."Paraphrased excerpts # 6:"...there is a self-blinkered mindset...who will not listen to rational argument...these people worship a man...Jesus declared that one ought to render unto God that which belongs to GodParaphrased excerpts # 7:"...every one has an outside and an inside...it is not easy to tell when one is lying excepting of course children and politicians...American voters did not elect the candidate they really wanted because they did not think that honesty could win..."End of Paraphrased excerpts. Separate posts to follow for comments and rebuttal of the 7 items.Respectfully,HBM Hill Billy Mitchell (12/31/00; 14:02:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 44769) Sir Holtzman @ # 42604 Response to Holtzman - PART 3Paraphrased excerpts # 1:Sir Holtzman says:"...off-topic...subjects of discussion...provide very good insight into...motivations...the appearance of such off-center commentary gives the rest of us a chance to see what motivates...while...embarrassing and annoying but not quite intolerable...such postings provide the rest of us with far more than their authors intended. Such postings allow us to see into their hearts and find out what makes them tick...my Doubting Thomas view has served me quite well to date..."My comments on paraphrased excerpts # 1:While neither "embarrassing" nor "annoying", your post may have "provided the rest of us with far more" than you intended yet I believe that you did intend for us to see the real you. I commend you for your honesty and your openness. You may have "allowed us to look into your heart and to gaze upon that which makes you tick." I must say that you are one complex and provocative individual. What I see is a highly philosophical and religious seeker of the truth. What I see is an individual who has done some real thinking over a long period of time. I also see an intellectual religious skeptic who is not going to buy any phony orthodox creed and is willing to go the route of the so-called heretic rather than compromise integrity of heart.I take your offering as an invitation to look into your heart as best we can. By doing so we can discover, in a small measure, what makes you tick. And knowing this we can see where you are coming from. We can place your thinking along-side our own and find insight into the causes of our agreements and disagreements concerning many topics. For example, to some gold is physical. To some, gold is political. To some gold, is philosophical. To some, gold is safety. To some, gold is religious. To some, Gold is God. To most gold is a mixture of several of these. To God, whether or not one cares if He exists, Gold is the money, the only perfect medium of exchange and store of physical wealth provided by Him to man.My rebuttal:None.Very respectfully,HBM Hill Billy Mitchell (12/31/00; 14:00:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 44768) Sir Holtzman @ # 42604 Response to Holtzman - Part 4Paraphrased excerpts # 2:Sir Holtzman says:"...I am neither Christian nor Jewish nor Muslim nor am I an Atheist...The best word I have found to describe myself is apathist: I simply don't care whether there is a god or not...I care about...I care about the prospects of a happy life...good intentions and good acts matter...the belief system is not matters...the end justifies the means...no matter what one believes what matters is only the intent and actions inspired by that belief system...I disdain bad intentions and bad acts no matter the belief system...My comments:I must say that this statement of faith or should I say, the lack thereof, was the catalyst to all of my efforts concerning your post # 42604.I was so taken aback by your reputed lack of concern as to whether there is a God or not.I had never heard the word, Apathist before. I was amazed to find that the word exists in my word processor but could not be found in my Webster's Seventh New Collegiate Dictionary.I did look up the word, apathy, and found that its root is "pathos" (feeling, emotion) and that preceding it with A- we get Apathos a lack of feeling or emotion: impassiveness, lack of interest or concern: Indifferent, impassive, spiritless.My rebuttal:You indicate that you are totally unconcerned about the issue: - If God is, so be it, if God is not, so be it. Certain corollaries follow such an impassive position:1) One must reject the infallibility of the Bible, for the Bible asserts the following: A) God is the beginning, and God is the end. Jesus is the Alpha and the Omega. When two things are equal to each other the laws of congruency demand that those two things are not just equal to each other but rather that they are the same thing. Simply put, Jesus is God.B) God cares whether one acknowledges His existence for He chooses to reveal Himself as the Great "I AM". If God did not care it follows that He would not bother to reveal Himself.C) Faith is substance and it is evidence. (Hebrews 11:1) God cares that we acknowledge His existence for He wants us to please Him. (Hebrews 11:6) Else He would not reward us for diligently seeking Him (Hebrews 11:6). There is no way to please Him without FAITH. (Hebrews 11:6) In order to come to God one MUST believe that "HE IS", we MUST believe Him when He says, "I AM"(John 8:24, 58) and we MUST believe that HE is a rewarder of them that diligently seek Him. It is by faith (the SUBSTANCE of the things we hope for and the EVIDENCE of the things which we have not seen with our eyes) that we expect to obtain a good report with GOD. The substantiation of the existence of God is accomplished by the substance called FAITH, according to the Bible. When one rejects FAITH as an option, it is true that one is without substantive evidence of God's existence, and one could naturally conclude that it really doesn't matter.D) This is the condemnation, that LIGHT is come into the world and men loved darkness rather than LIGHT. (John 3:19). He that doeth TRUTH cometh to the LIGHT. (John 3:21). The inverse of this Bible assertion is that, "He that DOETH NOT the truth COMETH NOT to the LIGHT.There is light enough for those who wish to see & Darkness enough for those of the opposite disposition-- Blaise Pascal, PENSEESE) The Father (GOD) seeks worshipers. (John 4: 23) If GOD did not care that we care, as to HIS Existence, He certainly would not seek us to worship Him.F) The work of GOD. (John 6:28-29) Jesus was asked the specific question, 'What must we do that we do the work of GOD?' and His specific answer was, 'The work of GOD is to believe on Him whom He hath sent.' No doubt about it. One must reject the infallibility of the BIBLE as GOD'S truthful word in order to be an APATHIST. 2) One must be unconcerned with any possibility of life after death. One must be unconcerned with any possibility of supernatural existence whatsoever. One must be content with this physical life only and disdain any hope of something after this life. To eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die and after that there is no resurrection would logically follow such a position. Not a new position at all but certainly a very clever way of stating an ancient philosophy.3) One must be unconcerned as to the affect such a publicly stated position will have on others who have not contemplated the approach. One must not be concerned with the possible consequences of being wrong and or the possibility of leading others along the wrong path. How can I say this more clearly? One must not care as to whether there are any adverse consequences to such a position either for one's self or for those who might be influenced by the putting forth of such a position. To this sort of mental gymnastics the Lord, Himself declares, "Woe unto you, lawyers! For ye have taken away the key of knowledge: ye entered not in yourselves, and them that were entering in ye hindered." (Luke 11:52) to Machiavelli the word of GOD clearly responds, "The wisdom of this world is foolishness with GOD. For it is written, he taketh the wise in their own craftiness." (1 Corinthians 3:19)4) The absurdity of such a position is self-evident: - If one does not care why should one give the matter even the slightest time of day. Why should one comment upon a subject about which one is totally unconcerned.Mr. Holtzman's, position is not neutral, it only appears to be so. It is against the teachings of Jesus, who said, "if ye believe not that I AM ye shall die in your sins (John 8:24). Couple this with the plain teaching that, "The Lord is not willing that any should perish" (2 Peter 3:9) and the only conclusion is that God cares, and thus so should we.Sir, you hold yourself out not to be neutral but an enemy of Jesus, for he very emphatically stated, "He that is not with me is against me…" (Matthew 12:30) and again, "Your words have been stout against me; saith the Lord. Yet ye say, What have we spoken so much against thee?" (Malachi 3:13)HBM Hill Billy Mitchell (12/31/00; 13:58:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 44767) Sir Holtzman @ # 42604 Response to Holtzman - Part 5Paraphrased excerpts # 3:Sir Holtzman says:"...the vast majority of humans are quite willing to faithfully believe anything they find in print...Faith does not require clear thinking...a frighteningly large number of people have a view in which historical fact is irrelevant... blindly accepting as fact a single source of words...or a person's interpretation of those words...never feeling the need to seek corroborating evidence...in the world of questionable conclusions...equally faithful folk come away from their Bibles with opposite interpretations...nothing rational can be said...which will have the slightest impact because minds are so firmly made up that they do not hear you. My rebuttal:I would take exception to what I consider to be a brutal attack concerning FAITH. I must admit that I am quite guilty of your charge in part. It is true that I accept as fact a single source of words, the Bible. It is not true that I accept the Bible in blindness. When I was younger I rejected the Bible as the infallible truth for the wrong reasons. I rejected many truths because I did not like what the truths had to say. I picked and chose what I liked to be true. I was not thinking at the time. I had not discovered what the Bible had to say about FAITH until much help was received from the Giver of FAITH. (Philippians 1:29 "For unto you (IT IS GIVEN) in the behalf of Christ...(TO BELIVE) on him..." One can never have any measure of FAITH unless he receives it from the GIVER.When the scales were removed from my eyes (for I was blind and could not see) I was slowly taught, not by man but by the Spirit of God, something as to what FAITH really is.Hebrews 11:1 "Now faith is the substance of things hoped for, the evidence of things not seen."1) Faith is substance (Hebrews 11:1)2) Faith is evidence (Hebrews 11:1)One does not need empirical evidence to see (understand) things which cannot be seen with the naked eye: I submit that substance and evidence are necessary to the thinking man. I submit that one could miss the truth by limiting one's self to evidence that can be seen by the naked eye.We are very clearly instructed by the Word of GOD not to depend upon our understanding without FAITH (Trusting in the Lord). (Proverbs 3:5-7) "Trust in the LORD with all thine heart; and lean not unto thine own understanding. In all thy ways acknowledge him, and he shall direct thy paths. Be not wise in thine own eyes: fear the LORD, and depart from evil." (Proverbs 1:25-26) "But ye have set at naught all my counsel, and would none of my reproof also I will laugh at your calamity; I will mock when your fear cometh."Hebrews 11:3 "Through FAITH WE UNDERSTAND that the worlds were framed by the word of God, so that THINGS WHICH ARE SEEN WERE NOT MADE OF THINGS WHICH DO APPEAR." - These words were penned many long years before the microscope came into use. The empirical evidence, (corroborating evidence as you call it) which came along later proved nothing. It only confirmed that which was already in EVIDENCE by FAITH in the word of God - we are made of molecules, particles, etx. Which cannot be detected without an insturment to enhance our vision.I also take exception to the contention that ("a frighteningly large number of people) blindly believe the Bible. I can assure you that, as a believer of the Bible, I find myself in minority. To the contrary I would suggest that you, my dear sir, are in the great majority (a growing majority) and that for this reason you have nothing to be frightened about. We few who "blindly" believe are of no threat to you.Luke 11:52 "Woe unto you, lawyers! For ye have taken away the key of knowledge: ye entered not in yourselves, and them that were entering in ye hindered."I would suggest that the key to the door of spiritual knowledge is "FAITH". Hebrews 11:6 "But without FAITH impossible to please: for he that cometh to God MUST BELIEVE that HE IS, and MUST BELIEVE THAT he is a rewarder of them that diligently seek him."Sir, you may not care, that there is GOD, but if you are wrong, then you are crossing HIM by refusing to seek Him for, if He did not want you to care, He would not offer the reward for seeking Him." I say this again, not in an attempt to change your mind, but to caution those who would be tempted to follow in your steps.Again I take exception to your statement; "nothing rational can be said...which will have the slightest impact because minds are so firmly made up that they do not hear you."It is not true that nothing rational can be said nor is it even true that nothing logical can be said which will impact a person of FAITH. A person of faith hears you. Just because he does not agree with you does not mean he does not listen. Many things seem to be rational and logical but may not be so at all. People are easily deceived, yes, and accept things to be rational or logical when they are not. I find that the best way to detect when something is not true no matter how rational or logical it may seem is to test it with the infallible WORD of GOD. If it comes into conflict with the word I allow FAITH in the WORD to be my guide and reject anything which would disagree with it.Now a short word about interpretation. You are correct that many mishandle the WORD and twist it to please them. You will have to simply take my word for this: - I simply do not do this. I once did it and, though I did not understand my error, I acted as if I did not really care about the truth. You could almost say, "I did not care if there was a GOD", for my actions and my self-deception indicated it to be the case.To those who wonder what point I am putting forth: - I am not refuting that Mr. Holtzman does not care. I take him at his word. He does not care, at least not at present. My point is one of caution. This position is, in my opinion, a foolish one. It is or at least appears to be an easy path. I have been down a similar path. Problem is if one stays on such a path too long he might eventually discover too late that it is a path that leads to destruction. HBM Hill Billy Mitchell (12/31/00; 13:57:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 44766) Holtzman @ # 42604 Response to Holtzman -Part 6Paraphrased excerpts # 4:Sir Holtzman says:"I am not certain about the correctness of my impressions...I am a Doubting Thomas...so far I am pleased with the results of my Doubting Thomas view...I try to look at the world for what it really is, an exciting and dangerous place...but not a world which is specifically out to get me..."Rebuttal;"Whatsoever is not of FAITH is sin."(Romans 14:23) When it comes to the word of God there is no room for doubt. One MUST believe, and not only that, one MUST also believe that He wants you to believe ie. seek HIM, else no offer of reward. (Hebrews 11:6) "But without faith impossible to please: for he that cometh to God must believe that he is, and he is a rewarder of them that diligently seek him." (Amos 5:6) "Seek the LORD, and ye shall live; lest he break out like fire…and devour… (Job 5:8,12-13) "I would seek unto God, and unto God would I commit my cause: He disappointeth the devices of the crafty, so that their hands cannot perform enterprise. He taketh the wise in his or her own craftiness: and the counsel of the froward is carried headlong."(John 8:55) "Yet ye have not known him; but I know him: and if I should say, I know him not, I shall be a liar like unto you: but I know him, and keep his saying."God, if there be one, and if He is the author of the Bible, which I do not DOUBT, considers doubt as a lack of FAITH, and he considers a lack of Faith to be SIN which thing displeases Him and He does not let sin go unnoticed.Sir Holtzman, you say:"...I try to look at the world for what it really is, an exciting and dangerous place...but not a world which is specifically out to get me..."In fairness to Sir Holtzman I must say that his definition of the world and the definition to which I refer in what follows may not be exactly the same; however, just in case it applies I feel compelled to include the following:I do not doubt that what you have said is quite true. The world is not specifically out to get you; however the world is specifically out to get those who belong to Jesus Christ. I do not say this because I am paranoid. I say this because I believe what the Bible says. (1 John 2:15-16) "Love not the world, neither the things in the world. If any man love the world, the love of the Father is not in him. For all that in the world, the lust of the flesh, and the lust of the eyes, and the pride of life, is not of the Father, but is of the world." And again, James 4:4 "Ye adulterers and adulteresses, know ye not that the friendship of the world is ENMITY with God? Whosoever therefore will be a friend of the world is the ENEMY of God." And then we have this comfort, (Psalms 21:8-9) "Thine hand shall find out all thine enemies: thy right hand shall find out those that hate thee. Thou shalt make them as a fiery oven in the time of thine anger: the LORD shall swallow them up in his wrath, and the fire shall devour them."Scarlet O'Hara, in "Gone With the Wind" was apt to say, 'I don't want to think about that today, I will think about it tomorrow.' This idea of not caring seems to me to be a convenient way of putting off the inevitable. It is human nature to not want to face very difficult things now in order to pursue one's temporal desires. It may have served well so far but the very expression, so far, implies that there is further to go. It may not serve well in the future. If there is no life after this then the future is now; however if there were to be life after this life what we care about now may very well have a bearing on our happiness after this life. Problem is the next life may not be so short.HBM Hill Billy Mitchell (12/31/00; 13:54:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 44765) Sir Holtzman @ # 42604 Response to Holtzman - Part 7Paraphrased excerpts # 5:Sir Holtzman Says:"We are all wolves and we are all sheep...I find Machiavelli's point of view refreshing because he saw this dichotomy of human nature and laid out clearly how to make the best of it...We are all wolves in sheep's clothing...one must embrace this dichotomy, and even rejoice in it..."My response:I suppose that if it is allowable to post the teachings of Machiavelli, then it will be allowable to post the contrasting teachings of the Bible. The Bible teaches that human (carnal) nature is depraved, that it is one-sided. The dichotomy appears only in those who have had the spiritual rebirth, but have not yet been delivered from the depraved human nature. The deliverance from the carnal nature (the body of this death) occurs at either the death of the body or at the translation of the saints when those who are alive at the return of Christ will be changed into His likeness and will be clothed with an incorruptible body. Those who have not the Spirit of God are none of His, cannot please Him and are one-sided in that they cannot please God because they are without FAITH. (Romans 8:6-8) "For to be carnally minded death; but to be spiritually minded life and peace. Because the carnal mind enmity against God: for it is not subject to the law of God, neither indeed can be. So then they that are in the flesh cannot please God." (Proverbs 1:11,15) "If they say...let us lurk privily for the innocent without cause...My son, walk not thou in the way with them; refrain thy foot from their path."(Proverbs 1:25-26) "But ye have set at nought all my counsel, and would none of my reproof also will laugh at your calamity; I will mock when your fear cometh."(Jeremiah 5:26) "For among my people are found wicked: they lay wait, as he that setteth snares; they set a trap, they catch men."Proverbs 30:5-6 "Every word of God pure: he a shield unto them that put their trust in him. Add thou not unto his words, lest he reprove thee, and thou be found a liar."What Machiavelli teaches about the dichotomy of human nature is the opposite of that which the Bible teaches. If one is true the other must be false. If one claims that Machiavelli teaches the truth in this area he is in effect claiming that what the Bible teaches is false. If one claims that the Bible teaches the truth in this area he is in effect claiming that what Machiavelli teaches is false. It is possible, I admit, that they can both be false but it is not possible that they can both be true since they arrive at opposite conclusions.There is no brotherhood of man. Man apart from regeneration by the Spirit of God is desperately wicked (Jeremiah 17:9). (Romans 7:15) "For that which I do I allow not: for what I would that I do not; but what I hate, that I do." There is certainly no way to "make the best of it." One can only hope to be delivered from it by Christ, Himself. (Romans 7:24-25) "O, wretched man that I am! Who shall deliver me from the body of this death? …Jesus Christ our Lord…"We cannot be both wolves and sheep. We are either one or the other. We cannot embrace that which makes us wretched. We cannot rejoice in it.Proverbs) 30:12-14 "A generation pure in their own eyes, and is not washed from their filthiness. A generation, O how lofty are their eyes! and their eyelids are lifted up. A generation, whose teeth swords, and their jaw teeth knives, to devour the poor from off the earth, and the needy from men."And again, (Isaiah 13:11) "And I will punish the world for evil, and the wicked for their iniquity; and I will cause the arrogancy of the proud to cease, and will lay low the haughtiness of the terrible.Rather let this be our prayer: (Psalms 131:1) "LORD, let not my heart be haughty, nor mine eyes lofty: nor let me exercise myself in great matters, or in things too high for me." (Romans 12:16) "Be of the same mind one toward another. Mind not high things, but condescend to men of low estate. Be not wise in your own conceits (eyes)."(Isaiah 57:15) "For thus saith the high and lofty One that inhabiteth eternity, whose name, Holy; I dwell in the high and holy, with him also of a contrite and humble spirit, to revive the spirit of the humble, and to revive the heart of the contrite ones."(Colossians 2:8) "Beware lest any man spoil you through philosophy and vain deceit, after the tradition of men, after the rudiments of the world, and not after Christ." (1 John 5:9-10) "If we receive the witness of men, the witness of God is greater: for this is the witness of God which he hath testified of his Son. He that believeth on the Son of God hath the witness in himself: he that believeth not God hath made him a liar; because he believeth not the record that God gave of his Son."I have no choice, I must earnestly contend for the faith once delivered unto the saints. (Jude 1:3)HBM Hill Billy Mitchell (12/31/00; 13:52:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 44764) Sir Holtzman @ # 42604 Response to Holtzman - Part 8Paraphrased excerpts # 6:Sir Holtzman says:"...there is a self-blinkered mindset...who will not listen to rational argument...these people worship a man...Jesus declared that one ought to render unto God that which belongs to God"My comments:Sir, you declare that Jesus is a man. I take you to mean that He is not God (Deity). I must say that, if you are right, we who believe Him to be man's savior are in deep trouble. For the whole point of salvation of man is that man needs God to do something for him that he cannot do for himself. If man could save himself from the consequences of sin man would not need Deity to do it for him. If Jesus is not Deity then He would turn out to be the greatest fraud the world has ever known. Should you believe that Jesus is not God, it is understandable that you would not believe the Bible to be true, for that is the message of the Bible. God has become like unto one of us without divesting Himself of His Deity so that He can reveal Himself as God to mankind. Of course it goes without saying that to accept Jesus as God requires FAITH. You have already indicated that you consider FAITH to be for only those who do not think clearly. The purpose of the rebuttal which follows is not to change your mind, but rather, to defend, or should I say "contend for the FAITH once delivered to the saints." Because I do believe the Bible to be true, I am compelled to contend for FAITH when I see it under attack. By so doing I hope to deter you from leading some into the pit of destruction.My rebuttal - God's word speaks clearly on the Deity of Christ:(Exodus 3:14) "…Thus shalt thou say into the children of Israel, I AM hath sent me unto you."(John 1:1) "In the beginning was the WORD. And the Word was with GOD and the WORD was GOD."(John 1:3) "All things were made by Him (the WORD) and without HIM was not anything made that was made."(John 1:10) "He was in the world, and the world was made by Him, and the world knew Him not."(John 1:14) "And the WORD was made flesh and dwelt among us…"(Hebrews 11:3) "Through faith we understand that the worlds were framed by the WORD of God, so that things which are seen were not made of things which do appear."Now any 'thinking man' would assume that if the WORD is GOD, and the WORD (the Logos in the Greek, Jesus, Himself, is the creating agent, and the WORD became flesh, that the Bible is clearly proclaiming here that Jesus is GOD. Only a 'thinking man' can see what the Bible claims here. Only a man of FAITH can believe it to be true. Further confirmation:(Hebrews 1:1-2) "God…hath in these last days, spoken to us by His Son…by whom He made the worlds…being the brightness of His glory and the express image of His person.(Colossians 1:13-16) "…His dear Son. In whom we have redemption…Who is the image of the invisible GOD (cannot be seen, therefore the evidence of things not seen, FAITH, is required)…For by Him all things were created…visible and invisible…all things were created by Him and for Him…"(Isaiah 43:9-10): …let them hear and say, it is truth…Ye are my witnesses saith the Lord…that ye may know and BELIEVE Me. And understand that I He: Before me there was no God formed, neither shall there be after me. I, I, the Lord, and beside me no savior."Now to the 'thinking man', the Bible reveals Jesus' claim that He is the Great I AM referred to in the above quote of Exodus 3:14 as follows:(John 8:23) "And He said unto them…I am from above…I am not of this world"(John 8:24) "…If ye believe not that I AM, ye shall die in your sins."(John 8:58) "Jesus said unto them, verily, verily I say unto you, before Abraham was, I AM"(John 9:9) "…He said, I AM"(Hebrews 11:6) In order to come to GOD one MUST believe that HE IS.It is by FAITH not by physical evidence that I believe that Jesus IS and always WAS God. I believe that He had no beginning and that He has no end.My simple choice to believe this will not harm any other person. No one should be frightened by my choice to take the Bible to be true in every respect. Sir Holtzman, you have not offended me and I hope neither to offend you nor frighten you. You cannot help your being a skeptic and I cannot help but believe. It appears that we are both helpless in our condition. We cannot hurt each other nor can we change each other's mind. Problem is we can both influence the choice which some others make. I do not see any possibility of harm should I influence to believe only to find out that I am wrong. I see the possibility of harm to those who would be persuaded to follow your way, should you happened to be wrong. HBMPS: You may ask, "where in the world is this man coming from. Now I am certainly no Moses. I am a worm in comparison to him. However, to those who would ask who sent me, my response would be the same one provided by Moses - "I AM sent me." Hill Billy Mitchell (12/31/00; 13:51:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 44763) Sir Holtzman @ # 42604 Response to Holtzman - Part 9Paraphrased excerpts # 7:Sir Holtzman says:"...every one has an outside and an inside...it is not easy to tell when one is lying excepting of course children and politicians...American voters did not elect the candidate they really wanted because they did not think that honesty could win..."My rebuttal:I beg to differ. Americans did not elect a truly honest person for president because they did not desire a truly honest person for president. I knew a man, dead now for several years, whose life was an open book. He was not any different outwardly than he was inwardly. Of course I know that you were referring to people in general and the exception that I refer to does not disprove what your generalization postulates. I think, maybe, you, also, are an exception to the general rule. I mean that as a high compliment. I pray God that I might not be a practicing liar.(1 Corinthians 8:2-3) "If any man think that he knoweth anything, he knoweth nothing yet as he ought to know. But if any man Love God, the same is known of Him."HBM Hill Billy Mitchell (12/31/00; 13:49:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 44762) Sir Holtzman @ 42604 This post will be followed by several others, which will be posted in reverse order so that those who might be interested will be able to read them in their logical from top to bottom. The posts are not long posts but are parts of what would be too long a post for this forum. I find that reading several short posts tend to be a bit less laborious than one long post. Also response to a specific portion is easier for those who wish to take exception or add to the discussion. It will also facilitate the passing over of those posts, which are of no interest to the reader and read only the ones, which are of interest to the reader.HBM Peter Asher (12/31/00; 13:28:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 44761) Sierra Madre #44719 Very very good observation "I think that Reason is many times an expression of character, unbeknownst to the reasoner, rather than a strict logical set of premises and conclusions." MO VER MEG (12/31/00; 13:25:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 44760) Black Blade 3 reasons corn might be a wise investment:1. Corn requires a significant amount of energy to produce (as you have repeatedly mentioned).2. Because of high production costs, many acres will be planted to soybeans instead of corn (my best guess).3. Weather patterns seem to signal drought.Higher production costs, fewer acres and lower yields would make Sept. corn options attractive. Personally, I will plant beans and buy corn options.Happy New Year! Shermag (12/31/00; 13:08:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 44759) Seven Million Canadian Criminals? At the stroke of midnight tonight, it is estimated that up to seven million Canadians will become criminals, subject to up to five years in prison. Their heinous crime? Failure to acquire a license from the federal government for the possession of a firearm.It is disputed as to how many Canadians actually own guns, with the governments own estimate revised to a lowered 2.2 million, but it is known that only 1.8 million are expected to file for a license by the deadline. With the National Firearms Association's estimates of between 7 and 9 million owners, this yields the potential for a hugely unprecedented increase in the criminal element in this country.Who are these soon-to-be criminals? The vast majority are law abiding responsible people who may own an old squirrel .22, or a shotgun for bagging a few ducks each fall. They include many who have kept an old pellet gun, acquired in their youth. The reasons for failure to comply vary, with apathy and misunderstanding among them, but it is believed that most refuse to comply with an unjust, ineffective and extremely expensive law.In the face of such a large civil disobedience, it is widely expected that enforcement will be lax, and the feds will be forced to eventually back down and rescind the legislation. In the meantime, many of us will choose to be at odds with one of the laws of the land.Shermag ET (12/31/00; 12:24:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 44758) Sierra Madre Hey Sierra - yours is one of the finest posts I've read here or anywhere for that matter. Thanks for taking the time to express your thoughts, they are appreciated.Happy New Year and may you gain your two percent in the coming year. Thanks! Mr Gresham (12/31/00; 12:18:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 44757) Golden Wishes I wish you all a Golden Millenium.(Actually, the past one was pretty golden, too. So it's mostly just the past Century that needs cleaning up after.)It has been an unexpected privilege to spend the past year and a half in your company. Thinking back to my best memories of college, I'll venture that learning together forms some of the strongest bonds we can ever know. You have been excellent classmates and I believe you are making that kind of impression on me and on others by participating here.Change your ideas, change your beliefs, change your underwear, even. But never give up your PRINCIPLES. Old Yeller (12/31/00; 11:37:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 44756) Thoughts from Placer Dome's CEO Placer Dome chief serves up more goodies from the hedgers big book of excuses and bafflegab.With excerpts from a National Post article from December 30,2000On the subject of reducing exploration budgets by 50% for the years 2000 and 2001."In an oversupplied market,does it make sense to find more?",Mr.Taylor asks.Cue up the hedgers lullaby-Annual gold production is running about 75% of demand-but the difference is satisfied by central bank selling and other stockpiles.Yada, yada,yada,we've heard this tune a few times.Next statement"the whole industry is chewing through reserves at an incredible clip",Mr. Taylor said.Is it me,or are the two quotes somewhat contradictory.The industry is running through it's reserves at an unsustainable rate, yet why explore for more since the market is oversupplied? Perhaps Mr.Taylor is unaware of the possibility that paper gold from "mysterious" sources may be clouding the big picture somewhat;perhaps not.Later in the same article-With nearly US$400 million in cash and US$500 million in it's hedge book,Placer Dome is ready to consider more acquisitions or major exploration projects but, Mr. Taylor said,not much of what is available is attractive."Those large deposits that are undeveloped are undeveloped for a reason," he said.Boy,with friends like these...Could it be that large proven deposits all over the world are dormant because the gold industry has done such an incredible hatchet job on the selling price of it's product?Could it be that because of such factors as "US$500 million in it's hedge book",they have painted themselves into a corner and no longer want the product they produce to reflect it's true value in the world market?Could we not have a teeny-weeny problem here,Mr. Taylor,i.e.;sharply reduced exploration spending,deposits that could be developed,mothballed,as well as huge lead times for finding and building new mines?Let's hope the new century brings about a little more truth and openess about the actual state of affairs in both this market and in all aspects of financial and monetary matters.Happy New Year,all. auspec (12/31/00; 11:15:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 44755) Predictions The Woman Who Would be Queen I might as well get an early start on the New Year!THE YEAR OF THE WRINGER--1st year 2001--Hillary will get snared by the WRINGER! {She can't seem to stay away- she is not as lovable as Bill and therefore has much thinner teflon}.2nd year 2002--Queen H will become bilaterally ensnared in the dreaded WRINGER.3rd year 2003--This will be an OFF year for Madam H!This must have something to do with the markets/gold and I will let you know as soon as I can figure out what it is.Happy New Years to all. We're gonna have a lot of fun next year! Black Blade (12/31/00; 10:50:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 44754) Dot.Com to Dot.Bomb to Dot.Gone! For a good look at the current state of affairs in the Dot.Com fiasco, here is a web site that pretty well lays it on the line. The only problem is that the name is somewhat offensive and would violate the rules. To spare some forum members who might be offended, fill in the blanks, and type in the URL and open to see how the so-called "New economy" is doing. I must leave for now - so enjoy! Happy Holidays all!http://www.f***edcompany.com ET (12/31/00; 10:39:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 44753) Journeyman http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=578&FS=American+Anarchism Here is a great article concerning individual anarchism. Hope you and others enjoy. From the article;"This afternoon I want to take a very basic look at one of the traditions that underlies modern libertarianism--namely, 19th century individualist anarchism in America. "Before doing so, however, I want to define what I mean by modern libertarianism. Namely, the body of political thought that emerged from and continues to develop through the synthesis of the best theory from four schools of thought. The synthesis was accomplished when Murray Rothbard took the radical anti-statism of the individualist anarchists and wed it with Austrian economics, the foreign policy of the Old Right (isolationism) and the natural law tradition. "Of these threads that were woven together, the least appreciated or understood is individualist anarchism. And I think one reason for this "oversight" is that, at first glance, individualist anarchism doesn't seem to share a key characteristic common to the others: that is, it doesn't seem to argue for the free market." lamprey_65 (12/31/00; 10:25:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 44752) A Long Nor'Easter Weekend http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/transcripts/ Well, kind of a disappointing storm up here in NH - only got about 10 inches.While watching the snow fall yesterday, I found my way to the above URL and began downloading FOMC meeting transcripts from 1992-1994. (Unfortunately, they wait 5 years to release).Downloading is SLOW. I'm saving the pdf's to my computer - makes searching for keywords easier.I was curious about conversations during the 1993 rally in gold. So far I've only found one mention of the metal - in the February 1993 meeting. As soon as the word "gold" is uttered, the conversation is broken and Greenspan begins talking - was the rest of the gold conversation edited out?Wouldn't surprise me.Nevertheless, thought some would find these conversations interesting - even if they may not be totally accurate! Black Blade (12/31/00; 09:54:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 44751) History Isn't that nice? What better way to start off the New Year than to study and ponder the possibilities? Are we headed into a repeat of 1970's stagflation? If so, what will Cheeta do? Will high-energy costs throw the US and global economies into disarray? If history repeats - did we learn anything?- Black BladeBTW, "Happy New Year Everyone!" CoBra(too) (12/31/00; 09:51:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 44750) A Golden, Prosperous and Happy Y2K and One to all the Forum - and in particular to MK and his kind and efficient associates - and thaank you all for your great efforts in education. Cheers 2001 to all of you - cb2 Black Blade (12/31/00; 09:48:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 44749) Paul Volker - Part 2 Brian TrumborePresident/Editor, StocksandNews.com "It's easy for a central banker to be popular during euphoric financial times. But the political perils are severe when tough measures are needed - measures that extract a high short-term toll in the interest of longer-term economic health - as they were in the late 1970s."--Economist Henry KaufmanAs we pick up our story of former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, it's the fall of 1979 and Volcker has recently been named chairman, putting his mark on Fed policy by raising the discount rate a full percentage point while emphasizing that killing inflation was his number one priority. Volcker realized he risked putting the economy into recession.Interest rates soared. While the 3-month Treasury Bill was climbing from 8% in September of '79 to 12.5% by year end, the Fed wasn't counting on long-term rates rising as well, from the 9.2% level in September to 10.1% by December 31st. [In most normal environments, as the Fed is increasing short interest rates (the only thing they can influence directly), the longer end of the yield curve responds positively. Since the longer end represents "inflation expectations," by raising short rates you would expectto eventually slow the economy and dampen inflation fears. Thus, the premium that investors demand for buying longer-term instruments should narrow, not widen.]Into early 1980 interest rates across the board continued to rise and the economy tipped into recession (a mild one but an important one as far as the presidential election of 1980 was concerned). By the end of the first quarter, the long bond was yielding 12.3%. Treasury Bills were to peak that year in the second quarter, 15.6%. The inflation rate for the first quarter of 1980, as measured by the CPI was 14.6%. Awful news. But what we didn't know at the time, as is often the case during events such as these, was that the back of inflation had been broken. By the middle of 1981, it was running at a 9.7% clip and for the year it was below 9%. Volcker was winning.But the times were tough on the chairman. Henry Kaufman went to visit him in 1980 and he observed that construction bricks were filling an outer office, yet no renovation appeared to be taking place. It turns out that the Brick Layers Union had sent them over, along with a note saying that they were no longer needed. A rather vicious reminder of the troubled economic environment.1980 was a miserable year for President Carter as well. Inflation, unbelievably high interest rates, a desultory stock market, and the Iranian hostage crisis. Carter went against the policy of the Fed and instituted his own policy of "special credit controls" whereby special requirements were placed on the reserves of banks and credit card companies. Volcker sat by, not wanting to be seen playing politics. Like the price controls of President Nixon, the credit controls worked for a spell and rates declined, only to soar anew.Reagan won the election that November and, as soon as the votes were tabulated, Volcker began to tighten interest rates more. The federal funds rate, which had averaged 11.2% in 1979, peaked at 20% in June 1981. The prime rate rose to 21.5% in '81 as well. Treasury Bills hit 17.3% and the long-term bond was on its way to 15.3%.Upon taking office, Ronald Reagan said that the country faced the threat of economic calamity. But many would say his preferred policies of tax cuts would encourage spending and investment and thus hamper Volcker's effort to kill inflation, once and for all. Reagan, though, certainly understood the importance of ending the inflation threat and he was willing to endure a deep recession to accomplish this. Already, early in 1981 there were reports that he would be a one-term president. But while Reagan would remark at cabinet meetings, "Why do we need the Federal Reserve at all?" he let Volcker operate with little interference. By July 1981 the nation was in recession, and it would be a long, ugly one. [Economists choose November 1982 as the month the recession ended.] The manufacturing sector was decimated plus the combination of high interest rates and an expensive dollar sharply reduced American exports, particularly hurting farmers. In 1982 the unemployment rate hit 9.7%.Reagan didn't waver. He insisted that if the nation "stayed the course" it would emerge healthier and more prosperous in the end. Meanwhile, Paul Volcker stuck to his own guns, convinced that firm control of the money supply was the key to a sound economy. And inflation was heading lower. A CPI that registered 13.3% for 1979 was to plummet to 3.8% for all of 1982.The stock market, which had reacted positively to Reagan's victory in November 1980 with the Dow Jones closing at 953 on the first trading day after the election, was to become a victim of the deep recession of '81-'82 as well. By the summer of 1982 the Dow would plummet to 776 on August 12. But Volcker was increasingly convinced that the time was near to reverse course.And another figure who was about to turn positive economist Henry Kaufman of Salomon Brothers. Kaufman's pronouncements on the financial markets were legendary back in the late '70s - early '80s. When Henry spoke, people listened. I started my career in the financial services industry working in the same building where Salomon's headquarters were. I used to ride the elevator with Mr. Kaufman as our companies were in the same elevator bank. He always looked so glum and we felt like saying, "Hey, nice comment Henry!" as the market tanked after a particularly negative missive. But by the summer of 1982 Kaufman was becoming increasingly convinced that a significant interest rate decline lay ahead. The recession, financial blockages and intense international competition augured for a more favorable environment in bond land, and by inference, the stock market. Kaufman decided to become bullish. On August 17 Kaufman issued a memo proclaiming the worst was over. The financial markets went ballistic. The Dow Jones rallied 38.81 that day (792 to 831) or 4.9%…the largest single- day rise in the markets history. A near record 93 million shares changed hands and there were 10 stocks up for every 1 down. And in the bond pits, short-term rates fell about half a point…in one day! The Fed cut the discount rate in August and the great bull market that we are still technically in had commenced. Ironically, as the Fed relaxed policy, money supply growth soared. The Reagan budget deficits began to soar as well. Interest rates were to take another hit to the gut in 1984 as the yield on the long bond hit 14% but, as the realization was also sinking in that inflation was not going to return to the levels of 1979-81, rates fell and the great bull market in bonds was under way. Paul Volcker stayed on as Fed Chairman until his retirement in June 1987, to be replaced by current chairman Alan Greenspan. While Volcker has remained active in the financial arena, perhaps his highest profile stance since his Fed days was taken during the Long-Term Capital Management fiasco of 1998. Volcker questioned the "bailout" of LTCM by the consortium of investment banks. "Why should the weight of the federal government be brought to bear to help out a private investor?"I guess they were just too big to fail, Paul. A nasty precedent. *The Fed is adamant that they were not involved in the LTCM bailout and that this was not government interference in the free markets.Sources:"New York Times: Century of Business," Floyd Norris andChristine Bockelman"Monopolies in America," Charles Geisst"Wall Street: A History," Charles Geisst"The Pursuit of Wealth," Robert Sobel"On Money and Markets," Henry Kaufman"The Presidents," Henry GraffBrian Trumbore Black Blade (12/31/00; 09:44:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 44748) Paul Volker - Part 1 Brian Trumbore President/Editor, StocksandNews.com"Paul Volcker stands out as one of the great central bankers of the twentieth century."--Economist Henry KaufmanFor the next two weeks we are going to take a look at a giant in the financial world, the former Federal Reserve Chairman, Paul Volcker. We will also detour once or twice to examine some of the players who helped shape the Volcker era. But first, the following are some definitions of terms that may make it easier to understand these pieces:Discount Rate: The interest rate charged by the Federal Reserve on loans to its member banks.Federal Funds Rate: The rate of interest on overnight loans of excess reserves among commercial banks. M1: Measurement of the domestic money supply that incorporates only money that is ordinarily used for spending on goods and services. M1 includes currency, checking account balances, and travelers' checks.M2: A measure of the money supply that includes M1 plus savings and time deposits, overnight repurchase agreements, and personal balances in money market accounts. Thus, M2 includes money that can be used for spending (M1) plus items that can be quickly converted to M1.Money Supply: The amount of money in the economy. Since the money supply is considered by some to be a critical element in determining economic activity, from time to time the financial markets place great importance on the Federal Reserve's reports of changes in the supply. For example, consistently large increases in the money supply can lead to future inflation. [But, that hasn't proven to be the case, yet, in analyzing the Wall Street of the last few years…and today.]Prime Rate: A short-term interest rate quoted by a commercial bank as an indication of the rate being charged on loans to its best commercial customers. While banks frequently charge more than the quoted 'prime rate,' it is a benchmark against which other rates are measured.---Paul Volcker was a career civil servant and central banker who, among his various positions, served as Under Secretary of the Treasury under Richard Nixon and then president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank.Volcker was an imposing figure, 6'7" to be exact, and a major player on the world financial stage as the year 1979 unwound. With his broad background, and the international markets in a state of flux, it was time for him to take the spotlight.1979 was a bleak year for America. The economic news was not good: soaring interest rates, inflation, and a rising foreign trade deficit led to a moribund stock market.Events overseas were attracting attention, particularly in Iran, where in January, the Shah had been toppled and a fundamentalist Islamic dictatorship installed under the rule of Ayatollah Khomenei. By November, Islamic revolutionaries seized the U.S. embassy, taking 90 hostages.It was a time of malaise. Optimism was not in strong supply. And within the Carter administration, there was a lot of infighting over the nation's economic policy. Inflation was to hit 13.3% in 1979. Treasury Secretary Michael Blumenthal advocated higher interest rates to bring inflation under control. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve, G. William Miller, thought monetary policy was just fine and resisted raising rates. Miller thought that inflation would eventually peter out all by itself.In these situations, arguments between the Fed and the administration are not to be carried out in public. There is a history of upholding the Fed's independence and to de-politicize their role as much as possible. But Blumenthal and Miller took their differences of opinion outside. They exchanged barbs in speeches and in publications from about April to July.Through it all, Wall Street was losing confidence in Miller. The stock market was in the midst of a long period of mediocrity. In recovering from the '73-'74 bear market low of 577 on the Dow Jones, the market had peaked at 1014 in September of 1976. From there it was a steady drip, drip down and by the summer of 1979, the market had been trading in the 800's for months. [Actually, outside of two days in November, the Dow, as measured by the closing average, traded in the 800's all year!]So on July 19, President Carter decided that it was time to make a change, and Blumenthal was fired (as well as three other cabinet members, with a fifth resigning) to be replaced at Treasury by Miller. Then on July 25 Carter nominated Paul Volcker to be the new chairman of the Federal Reserve. Wall Street celebrated by rallying 10 points that day, 829 to 839. Historian Charles Geisst comments:"Volcker was selected because he was the candidate of Wall Street. This was their price, in effect. What was known about him? That he was able and bright and it was also known that he was conservative. What wasn't known was that he was going to impose some very dramatic changes."[As I read this passage, I was struck by the similarity with the process of selecting Supreme Court nominees. Presidents often think they know where a particular judge stands before they are selected. But then often the "conservative" becomes a "liberal" jurist, and vice versa.]Volcker was confirmed by Congress on August 2 and then sworn in on August 6. He got to work. While the U.S. economy was growing, when you took out inflation the growth was minimal. It was a period of "stagflation," inflation with slow to zero growth. As the data rolled in, Volcker made it clear that inflation was "public enemy number one."On October 4, the September Producer Price Index showed a rise of 17%, the largest increase in 5 years.On October 5, the Labor Department said unemployment had declined slightly to 5.8%.Meanwhile, the money supply had been expanding rapidly. The markets grew increasingly skittish. And overseas, investors were uneasy over the U.S. seeming inability to solve the inflation problem. The dollar was weak and the trade deficit was soaring.Volcker commenced an attack on the money supply as soon as he took control. He began to set a target for the growth of money, in the hopes that demand for credit would begin to dry up. The federal funds rate was increased in the hope that banks would eventually cut back on their loan lending. If it became difficult to find new capital, company's expansion plans would be put on hold.Then on October 6, Volcker acted even more forcefully. Holding a rare Saturday night news conference, he unleashed his own version of the "Saturday Night Massacre." Pointing to the recent economic releases, Volcker said, "Business data has been good and better than expected. Inflation data has been bad and perhaps worse than expected."The Chairman announced that the discount rate was being increased a full percentage point to a record 12%. "We consider that (this) action will effectively reinforce actions taken earlier to deal with the inflationary environment."But Volcker wasn't just looking to slow inflation, he was seeking to smash it! It was just the start. And the Carter administration was none too pleased. And neither were the financial markets.When the Dow Jones opened on Monday, October 8, it fell from 898 to 884. Within a month it would be below 800. [Those two aforementioned days in November.] Meanwhile, in the bond pits, rates soared. The 3-month Treasury Bill, yielding around 8% in late September, climbed to 12.5% by year-end. One sidelight to the market maneuverings around the October 6 Fed announcement. On October 5, IBM had brought to market the largest corporate bond offering ever, $1 billion. Of course, the fixed income market was roiled that following Monday. Many of the 225 investment banks in on the deal were left with large amounts of inventory. [Not having anticipated any problems, the firms had taken down positions in the IBM bonds in the full confidence that it would be easy to resell them to their clients. The sudden rise in rates on Monday, and the commensurate decline in the value of bonds, meant that some firms faced large losses on their positions of unsold paper. Ironically, Salomon, the co-lead in the offering, had sold virtually all of its bonds before Volcker's announcement, thus losing little, which fanned speculation that they had inside information. This was never proved to be the case.]Sources: "New York Times: Century of Business," Floyd Norris andChristine Bockelman"Monopolies in America," Charles Geisst"Wall Street: A History," Charles Geisst"The Pursuit of Wealth," Robert Sobel"On Money and Markets," Henry Kaufman"Wall Street Words," David ScottBrian Trumbore Black Blade (12/31/00; 09:41:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 44747) History Lesson Since most of us know that history has a tendency to repeat and people have an inability to learn from history, I think now is a good time for a history lesson. The events that are unfolding now have happened before. There were the days of the "Nifty Fifty" - stocks that couldn't fail no matter what, and then an oil crisis, a few short years later another oil crisis. Today, The "New Economy" where "trees grow to the sky" mentality is the norm. And again, a developing energy crisis. In the past there was a man who was given the job of Fed Chairman when inflation (actualy stagflation)was rampant. His name - Paul Volker. What comparisons can we make between him and Cheeta (AKA Alan Greenspan)? In a two part lesson we can draw our own conclusions. Let the chips fall where they may.- Black Blade Pandagold (12/31/00; 07:56:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 44746) Dollar,Euro,Gold - the Three Cabilleros We are in a transition from the dollar to the Euro (at least for some time). This should be obvious already to the discerning, but if it isn't, it will be as the new year progresses.This is not Europe fighting the US. It was planned many moons ago (all part of the agenda).It should be remembered that it is a transition from the old well-tried, to the new boy on the block. During any transition the situation is tenuous and sensitive. Also, because of the whole manipulated financial structure, we have a severe aggravated situation, that, if things went wrong, would topple the whole pack of cards.If, once the dollar weakens, money were to flow into gold instead of the Euro we would have a worst case scenario, and this is why TPTB will enure that it does not.Once the Euro is up and running, and steady on its feet, then, and only then, will the tight reins on gold be relaxed. Black Blade (12/31/00; 07:48:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 44745) Gadhafi suggests OPEC could halt oil supply - A Modest Proposal? http://www.cnn.com/2000/WORLD/africa/12/25/energy.opec.libya.reut/index.html December 25, 2000(Reuters) -- Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi suggested on Monday that OPEC could stop pumping any oil for a year or two as a last resort to keep world crude prices high, Libyan news agency Jana said. Gadhafi was responding to a call by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to "go to battle" to defend the price of oil, which has slumped by 30 percent in the past month. "The last means for us might be to stop the oil supply altogether for one or two years, although that is not in the interests of producing countries and consumer countries," Gadhafi said in a message to Chavez that was reported by Jana. "Libya is backing Venezuela's position calling for cutting oil production," Gadhafi said. OPEC agreed informally this year to a price target mechanism, under which it lifts or restricts output if world prices move outside the range of $22 to $28 per barrel. OPEC's export price fell to $21.64 per barrel on Thursday. Chavez has assumed a leadership role in the cartel after hosting the first OPEC summit in 25 years. Black Blade: What a novel idea. Stop production for one or two years? Yeah, that should just about do it ;-) Black Blade (12/31/00; 07:37:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 44744) RE: Sancho There was a time, not long ago, when most in the US were able to care for themselves. During the Great Depression for example, families were closer together. They depended upon one another and pooled their resources. A large portion the US public still lived on family farms. They were able to at least grow food and raise animals. Somehow, most were able to pay some debt such as a mortgage on the family farm. Today, there isn't that "luxury." Many are about to experience hardship beyond that of our parents and grandparents generations. I would venture to guess that many think that meat magically appears at McDonalds and KFC, and the Jolly Green Giant raises vegetables. You're right of course, many in the US would simply starve as they have no simple survival skills. In fact, many of them despise farmers as "abusers" of the land in some strange notion of environmentalism. There is a certain irony in that and what the future likely holds. Black Blade (12/31/00; 07:27:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 44743) Energy: Utility says the companies fear it may not have money for future contracts. It is asking state for rate hikes. From LA Times By CHRIS KRAUL, Times Staff WriterMore than 15 natural gas suppliers are refusing to sell gas to cash-squeezed Pacific Gas & Electric beyond their current contracts for fear they won't be paid, the utility said Friday, a reflection of its precarious financial condition and potential bankruptcy filing in the near future. Experts in bankruptcy law say the reluctance of natural gas purveyors to contract with PG&E is typical in cases where bankruptcy looms. Suppliers have a better chance of getting paid on contracts signed after a customer files for protection from Bankruptcy Court than before. PG&E, the state's largest utility, has said it faces bankruptcy unless it receives immediate rate relief. PG&E and Edison International's Southern California Edison unit are each asking state Public Utilities Commission for emergency rate hikes they say are crucial to avoid insolvency. Three major Wall Street debt-rating agencies say they are poised to downgrade PG&E and Edison debt unless the PUC signals Thursday that it will significantly raise rates. "It's like a house of cards," said Kenneth Klee, a Century City bankruptcy lawyer and UCLA law professor. "If the PUC gives a favorable ruling, the company can obtain financing, and then suppliers will sell it all the gas it needs," Klee said. "But if the rate increase is not sufficient, we might see the first steps of bankruptcy strategy whereby the company files for bankruptcy in order to get the financing it needs to purchase gas. That's what suppliers might be anticipating," Klee said Although the utilities' bid for a rate increase is aimed at helping to pay $11 billion in wholesale electricity costs that consumers haven't been billed for, their cash crisis is also discouraging PG&E's "gas suppliers from selling to us," spokeswoman Staci Homrig said. "Wall Street has made it clear that a rate increase would ease their concerns about our credit-worthiness, and that's what is causing gas suppliers to have concerns about selling to us." In a statement late Friday afternoon, PG&E said it has enough gas lined up from outside suppliers to serve all its 3.8 million gas customers only through January "as long as temperatures do not drop, thereby increasing demand above forecast levels." PG&E has enough gas in storage to meet only part of its projected February and March demand, Homrig said. PG&E, which is based in San Francisco and serves Central and Northern California, has only one generation plant that uses gas and "it doesn't run very often," a spokeswoman said. So, any gas shortage would not affect the utility's ability to deliver its own gas-generated electricity. Edison has sold all of its natural gas-fired power plants in recent years. The utility said its average customer gas bill will rise in January to $125, up 60% from this month. The worst may not be over yet for gas customers: Many analysts expect gas prices to continue to rise through February and March because of under-average inventory levels and cold-weather forecasts. Consumer advocate Harvey Rosenfield, president of Foundation for Taxpayer and Consumer Rights in Santa Monica, said PG&E has "in the process of scaring officials into a bailout also begun to scare their own suppliers." "The company has made the threat of bankruptcy to leverage a bailout, and that was directed at the politicians," Rosenfield said. "But other companies read the papers too." Black Blade: "And the Grasshoppers danced, sang, and played all summer…" Belgian (12/31/00; 07:26:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 44742) Sierra Madre....mama mia ! What a splendid text on " DEBT ". Is it a coincidence that people's understanding of the actual, very nature, of debt and gold are totally abonded ? No it isn't !Debt is financing the "bread and games", mentality to this generation of Boom-Boomers and the next one. One night stand billionaire - gladiators are providing the spectacle.No-o-o-o, this is not gloom and doom. But biting realism, stubbornly denied by all actors and participants.The past wealth-rythm and increasing speed-momentum of blind euphoria is an UN-natural, process. The brutal arrogance of the evidence-blind-masses, is preventing "the change".Going into 2001...I keep on questionning myself, why POG declined for such a long time and why it still isn't able, to revalue itself. A possible part of the answer : Physical Gold is the exact opposite of Debt. The illusiory Ponzi-wealth is in full contradiction with tangable Gold. A clear incompatability.Stockmarket volatility + currency / interest rate speculations and the Derivative monster have evoluated into an omnipotent Dragon. Gold became progressively speechless.Fast-money is the name of the narcotic, that poisonned the Gold-Giant. Derivatives, carry-trades and other financial circus acts, capped the shining glow, of what used to be the ultimate anchor and beaken. Previous Gold-investors-speculators, were seduced one by one into the paper-euphoria, through the same old stadia of Denial, Acceptance and Capitulation.From the above, it is very easy to understand, why Gold profiteers, could abuse the fundamental functions of Gold and the POG. The above also explains, why the "modest" Gold-investors-speculators, abanded ship, progressively. It still doesn't explain why the "strong" and powerfull Gold-movers, were changing the Goldboat into a Pirate-ship.Imagine a simple world advertising campaign for Gold, by the goldproducers : DEBT versus GOLD ! Are they afraid that a possible, positive respons of POG, will cause a renewed production/exploration-goldrush ?Or, is it not simplier to organise a Hedge-stop, and give an unmistakable signal to Gold and its price ? But the communication with the Gold-producers remains a deaf man's conversation. So I will stop yelling in the desert. Time might come, we do understand why "they" remained silent.Dow and SP-500, are still evidence of full Denial. Maybe a possible januari-effect will add to that. Are we in for a reverse Dollar / Euro carry-trade ? POG isn't giving any price-sign to (loosing) Dollarholders. Do they remain under Goldnarcose, up until Dollarindex, breaks the 105/100 zone ?Or is the GATA-pinch-bite, going to do the job ?If Gold, needs a panic-shock, to awake from its narcose...why don't we induce such a shock with a massive DEBT propaganda ? Or will Debt in itself amount to such degree that we don't need to explain it anymore ?Sure it will ! Sooner, rather than later. More than enough evidence, already.Howe's " horizontal price fixing agreements", will be exposed with a dramatic POG move or vice versa ?Dollar-Debt-evolution, remains the alternative allied force.Nick Leeson, was able to bancrupt, a 200 year old solid bank, overnight, with only one wrong choice. What do we need to have the same story happening to GS+JPM ? Let's ask Nick ?More than enough imponderabilia left to step into 2001 with a Golden Trust. Happy New year to all Goldactivists. Sancho (12/31/00; 07:25:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 44741) (No Subject) Black Blade: I like your posts. The increase in fuel prices to the farmer may well reslt in an eye-opener to the mostly ungrateful 97% who are so well fed at present by the 3%. Whereas the Russians apparently do not mind working and not getting paid enough to live, the western farmer will not be equipped financially or otherwise to continually produce at a major loss and still cope with burgeoning governmental regualations as well. They do not have to quit and go home. They are home but will quit. Do the bureacrats and currently contented others have the slimmest grasp of how to grow food? Black Blade (12/31/00; 06:52:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 44740) The Greenspan Illusion An Entertaining Article from "Mogambo Guru" about Cheeta, Nov. 28, 2000"There are a couple of new books on Alan Greenspan. They were both apparently written by mere scribblers, neither of which knows anything about economics, or they would have at least mentioned that any dimwit off the street could do what Greenspan has done: provided unbridled liquidity out the wazoo. Even a 6-year-old kid can figure out that providing unlimited liquidity will cause a boom in anything. Ergo, it was impossible for the economy to do anything else than to boom and cause massive inflation in something.In the current case, that ‘something’ turned out to be the stock market, the bond market, government services, and ‘collectibles.’ (beanie Babies anyone?) Indeed bond prices have been bid up so obscenely high that, net of taxes and inflation, they are actually guaranteeing themselves to lose money. Unfortunately, bloated stock market and bond prices are not included in calculating classical inflation.The stuff that government ‘inflation experts’ measure is, essentially commodities. Wheat, gasoline, heating oil, milk, clothing, and so forth. And many of these items are being supplied by foreigners who are working for cutthroat subsistence prices via NAFTA.So the good times are based on illusion. A borrowing from future prosperity. And simply running to Greenspan for more liquidity just makes the problem worse. There is a price, a very large price, to be paid for such foolhardy mismanagement, and that will be the sad epilogue to the story of the most vainglorious Federal Reserve Board chairman in History." Black Blade: I'm glad that someone said it! I couldn't have said it any better! How long can Cheeta keep up this shell game? Better get some PMs. Black Blade (12/31/00; 06:14:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 44739) RE: Bloomberg article Ted Arnold, Gold Bear analyst of Prudential Bache, used to work for Merril Lynch (I think), before they became bullish on gold this last year. People seem to fall out of favor and end up somewhere else depending on their masters sentiment. Same thing happened to Gold Bear Andy Smith (now of Mitsui?). It does not matter, analysts tend to be either completely wrong or they arrive late to the party once the bull has run. They are effectively irrelevant as they only work to serve the wishes of their masters. The only difference is that the gold market appears to have some curious constraints that suggest manipulative measures are in effect. These constraints do not appear to be as evident in other markets. Curious isn't it? That analysts never offer sell recommendations! Why is that? Could it be that they fear losing a potential customer? Hmmmm... Take anything you hear or read from an analyst with a grain of salt. I have used them as contrary indicators for years and have profited handsomely. - Black Blade SteveH (12/31/00; 05:55:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 44738) Bloomberg article http://www.bloomberg.com/cgi-bin/feedback99.cgi?template=homefeed.ht&version=homefeed.txt From the looks of that article, the gold-lie has been institutionalized and people are willing to be used for larger purposes in seemingly their best interests. Which would lead one to believe that those quoted gain from a down gold market (shorts?). If you are inclined to tell them how this article is missing the big picture and serving the interests of bullion banks and those short the gold market may do so at:http://www.bloomberg.com/cgi-bin/feedback99.cgi?template=homefeed.ht&version=homefeed.txt.Use link under subject. Black Blade (12/31/2000; 5:34:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 44737) Gold Hedge Fund Masquerading as Gold Miner to "Bite the Dust" Soon! http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/001228/n28449324_2.html Cambior creditors extend deadline for financial plan(UPDATE: All figures in U.S. dollars)TORONTO, Dec 28 (Reuters) - Cambior Inc. (Toronto:CBJ.TO), trying to recover from heavy debts from a gold hedging program that went wrong last year, said on Thursday creditors agreed to extend the deadline for its financial restructuring plan by two weeks after delays caused by the holiday season. The Montreal-based company, once one of Canada's biggest gold producers, was forced to sell its assets to pay back $225 million in debt as a result of hedging -- a common practice among larger producers to cushion the effects of a falling gold price by selling future production at a fixed price. Cambior said in a statement on Thursday that creditors agreed to extend the deadline to Jan. 12, 2001, and postponed the closing of a new $65 million line of credit and a $55 million prepaid gold forward sale agreement. It said there would be no additional financial charge or costs to Cambior. The company said it had already completed the payment of $35 million to creditors on Dec. 8 from the proceeds of the sale of its stake in La Granja copper project in Peru, and the conversion of a first-rank mortgage by Jipangu Inc., a Japanese company focused on the gold sector, into a $3.7 million subordinated debt and equity through a private placement of $6.3 million. Black Blade: "All the Kings horses, and all the Kings men…" Cambior (CBJ) is toast, if you got it - sell it! Same with Ashanti (ASL). I know - a little late for tax loss selling (wash rule). Barrick (ABX) and other forward sold producers, look into the face of Forward hedging (CBJ and ASL) and see your own future. Black Blade (12/31/2000; 5:17:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 44736) Huge gas bills heat up tax cut argument http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/cdh/20001230/lo/huge_gas_bills_heat_up_tax_cut_argument_1.html By John Patterson Daily Herald State Government WriterSPRINGFIELD - Heating bills of $400 and $500 - often times twice as high as last year's - have begun showing up in mailboxes, outraging consumers and leading some state lawmakers to renew their push for a temporary cut in the state's tax on natural gas, heating oil and propane. An emotional debate on what help the state can provide is expected when legislators return to Springfield on Jan. 8 and 9 to finish up any outstanding business before newly elected members are sworn in on Jan. 10. Budget concerns, however, continue to be blamed for the failure of any tax cuts proposals to advance in the General Assembly. That's why a continuation of the cut in the sales tax on gasoline is not being extended beyond the end of the year. And it may also be the reason why a cut in natural gas taxes is given only lip service. But striking similarities exist between the latest situation and those of this summer that led to the governor and legislators agreeing to cut taxes on gasoline. Short supplies of both commodities caused prices to reach unheard of levels and put public pressure on politicians. With gasoline, however, it wasn't until Indiana moved to reduce its state tax that Illinois Gov. George Ryan budged from his initial opposition to doing the same. The natural gas market does not offer the opportunity for homeowners to shop elsewhere, and therefore the same pressures do not apply. "This is a critical situation," said state Rep. William Black, a Danville Republican and the sponsor of the heating fuel tax cut proposal. Although Democrats blocked the plan in committee, he said he will push its approval upon returning to Springfield. Black said he plans to remind opponents that had they voted for his plan, the savings would have already shown up. If the tax cut had been approved during the fall session, it would have gone into effect Dec. 1. The average savings per household are estimated at up to $20 a month. It would reduce by about $45 million the amount the state would have to spend, Black said. Several suburban legislators have signed on as supporters. "I really believe for an average Illinois family, this is an unexpected and exorbitant increase," said state Rep. Mary Lou Cowlishaw, a Naperville Republican. "It's only fair that the state not contribute to the problem." However, House Speaker Michael Madigan, a Chicago Democrat, remains unconvinced that the plan will help. Madigan opposed the gasoline sales tax cut, arguing that motorists never saw the full savings and it merely put money into gas station owners' pockets. He has a similar position on this proposal. "Based on our experience with gasoline, we know it will have no effect on prices," said Madigan spokesman Steve Brown. He also said Gov. Ryan "was opposed to that type of legislation," referring to proposals that reduce the amount of money the state has to spend. But Nick Palazzolo, a Ryan spokesman, said the governor has only expressed his concern about the potential $360-million hit on the state treasury the gasoline sales tax cut would have been. As for the natural gas and heating fuel proposal, Palazzolo said the governor "has a wait-and-see attitude."Black Blade: NG crisis heads east! Thank God that energy isn't counted in the core rate! LeSin (12/31/2000; 5:11:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 44735) HAPPY NEW YEAR! HAPPY NEW YEAR - ONE AND ALL ON THIS EXCELLENT FORUM.THANKS TO USA GOLD! MAY GOD BLESS US ONE AND ALL AND PHYSICAL HOLDERS @ 1000 TIME PLUS. "S" LeSin (12/31/2000; 5:07:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 44734) Gold's Days Gone Forever? Spin Cont. " NOT QUITE ME THINKS!" http://www.ardemgaz.com/today/biz/G1bgold31.html Gold's days seem gone as a force in marketsVLADIMIR TODRESBLOOMBERG NEWSLONDON -- Oil prices have more than doubled in the past two years, and world stock indexes are on track to finish the year down in some cases by more than a fourth. The world is filled with news that historically lifted gold. A decade ago, when oil touched an eight-year high and spurred U.S. inflation, gold staged a one-month, $60 rally to $413 an ounce. Now gold is at $275, a 28-year low after adjusting for inflation and on track for its first annual drop since 1997. "My greatest concern is that people may start ignoring gold completely," said Peter Fava, head of precious metals at HSBC Bank Plc, one of London's top five gold-trading companies. "If some of the really committed central banks, like Germany and the U.S., start to sell it, that would be the end." Instead of a hedge against bad times and a bulwark of the financial system, evidence is mounting that gold is just another commodity as central banks from Argentina to Australia sell their holdings. Gold trading volume in London plunged to a record low in November, according the London Bullion Market Association, which oversees the market. Investment banks such as UBS Warburg are reducing the size of their trading staffs, while some of the most important gold traders are leaving the business. Gold stock indexes in Johannesburg, South Africa, and Philadelphia, which contain many of the world's top producers, are down more than 20 percent this year. In the past, accelerating inflation, declining stock markets and political uncertainty have caused investors to buy gold. Inflation in the United States and Europe this year is running at the highest rate in at least three years. The benchmark U.S. Standard & Poor's 500-stock index this year has lost 10 percent, on track for its first annual decline since 1994. Japan's Nikkei index has slid more than 25 percent, while the Dow Jones Europe Stoxx index is down almost 5 percent. In the Middle East three months of clashes in Israel that have left more than 350 dead raised concern of a larger regional conflict in that oil-producing corner of the world. The U.S. presidential election had been unsettled for more than a month. Gold traders ignored it all. "Gold just doesn't react to anything," said Adrien Biondi, a gold trader at Rabobank in London. "At best, it edges up a bit -- only to fall immediately." How times have changed. A fabled king Midas used to increase Phrygian gold reserves simply by touching other materials and turning them to gold. Now many of the world's central banks are dumping their bullion to buy assets that offer better returns, such as government bonds. Banks from the United Kingdom to Uruguay have accelerated selling and lending gold this year, but stalwarts such as the United States and Germany have held their stash. Private investors, too, are showing little interest. Sales of gold coins and bars plunged 30 percent to 89.6 tons in the third quarter, the producer-funded World Gold Council estimated. U.S. investors, who kept gold coins last year in case of computer malfunctions after the change to 2000, are selling them now. In all, gold prices this year have fallen almost 5 percent. While the past few years have seen much debate about gold's role as an investment, the end of 2000 may settle the question. "The market for gold is dreadful," said Ted Arnold, an analyst at Prudential Bache, who, after 24 years of following precious and industrial metals, now focuses almost exclusively on copper, aluminum, nickel and similar metals. Some of the biggest traders are calling it quits, while investment banks are reorganizing their trading desks. UBS Warburg is relocating its spot gold trading to Zurich, Switzerland, said Sarah Small, a spokesman for the bank. As part of that, the bank will cut its gold desk by about one-fifth by transferring staff to other divisions, a person familiar with the plan said. Small declined to comment on that change. The most prominent recent departures included the resignation of James Riley, who headed gold trading at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s J. Aron & Co. in New York. Timothy Jones, who held the same position at the Bank of Nova Scotia in London, also left to pursue opportunities in private equity. Both companies denied the resignations were linked to the state of the gold market. Riley said he's going to "relax." Those remaining in the gold industry privately bemoan the fact that that some of the best talent is choosing other options. While finance officials stand behind gold, many recognize that its importance has diminished. "Gold's importance as a monetary anchor came to an end with the emergence of more rigorous monetary policies," Antonio Fazio, governor of the Bank of Italy, told a gold conference in Rome last month, though was quick to add that in his opinion the metal should hold its role as a guarantee in the event of a crisis. Even the disputed U.S. election did not bolster the gold market. Geneva, Switzerland-based trader and refiner MKS Finance on Nov. 10 raised its target price for gold by $10 to $272 an ounce amid presidential vote recounts in Florida, citing "political concerns." Over the next week, the metal gained just 50 cents. "We thought uncertainty around the vote might move gold higher," said Frederic Panizzutti, head of strategy at MKS Finance. "But the market ignored everything." This article was published on Sunday, December 31, 2000 Black Blade (12/31/2000; 1:23:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 44733) Natural Gas Forecast - Matt Simmons http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research/docview.asp?viewnews=true&newstype=2&viewdoc=true&dv=true&doc=100 The latest Matt Simmons take on NG. Well worth the read. Preparation is a must, and that includes portfolio insurance with gold and silver (bullion and numismatics). Wouldn't hurt to get a supply of food and water on hand. Those of you with wood burnibg stoves - you got a leg up on most. This winter is only the beginning of a long decaying spiral toward reality. Black Blade (12/31/2000; 1:08:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 44732) Hydro-Carbon Man's Addiction Goes Far Beyond Energy One point that we haven't covered much on the "Life and Times of Hydro-Carbon Man" is that of food. That energy junkie that we all now know as Hydro-Carbon Man and his western cousin the Grasshopper, not only like to keep snug and warm, but they also like to eat cheap mass produced food. Without cheap natural gas, food will be in short supply. How you ask? Simple, natural gas is a primarily raw material in the manufacture of nitrogen based fertilizers. Oil and oil by-products are used to manufacture pesticides. Have any here ever seen a hoard of locusts in action? I have worked in the North American west for several years. I have only twice seen locusts in action. These were the glossy black "Mormon Crickets." Them damn things bite too. After they make their way through an area, the vegetation is stripped bare. Ravenous pests used to be a problem the world over, until methods of eradication and control through the use of pesticides. The result was cheap and abundant food (at least in the US). But just as important is the use of fertilizer. As the ground is spent and vital nutrients are used up as crop after crop are harvested, these or similar nutrients must be replaced to insure a continued yield. Well now, that may be a problem. Let me explain. Many of these specialty chemical and fertilizer plants were built close to natural gas fields in order to take advantage of cheap and abundant NG for the manufacture of nitrogen based fertilizer. A funny thing happened. Everybody wanted NG to power clean burning power plants and so the price sky-rocketed to unprecedented levels. New pipelines came on line and the NG was easily piped off to market. The fertilizer companies suddenly faced much higher prices, and with farmers operating on razor thin margins at best, raising fertilizer prices was out of the question. What to do? Simple, layoff workers, shut down the chemical and fertilizer plants, and sell the contracted NG at a profit. Recently, Methanex Corp., the world's largest producer of methanol, or methyl alcohol, a NG derivative, mothballed it's plant in Kitimat, BC, and shifted production to it's facilities in Trinidad and Chile. Fertilizer producers Sherritt International Corp., closed up shop in Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta, and ditto for Agrium Inc. in Redwater, Alberta. Agrium is considering the closure of three other plants in Alberta, and one in Texas. So not only do we have to worry about heating our abodes in the winter, cooling them in the summer, and keeping the lights on, now we might need to consider if we will have enough in the cupboard. Sure, some production will take place on foreign shores where NG prices are lower, but that was already intended for other markets. The next few years could get quite "interesting." Bon Appétit! - Black Blade Black Blade (12/31/2000; 0:32:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 44731) Five reasons why there will be less Russian pgm supply in 2001 Article from MiningWeb.com There is one safe bet on next year's supply of Russian platinum group metals (pgm). There is going to be less. So much less, in fact, that it won't matter whether deliveries start in January, or are delayed until May. Here are the five reasons for betting that in 2001 Russian supplies of palladium will be below 4.8 million ounces: RecentralizationSince the beginning of this year, the administration of President Vladimir Putin has slowly but surely reclaimed control of the production of pgm, the export trade, the stockpiles, and commercial operations (including swaps with European banks) by the Central Bank. This process has reduced the personal profiteering that was characteristic of the sector during the Yeltsin period, and increased the significance of national interest policy criteria. The process has been led by Valery Rudakov, chief of Gokhran and Deputy Minister of Finance. He has Kremlin backing – and a growing number of enemies and rivals. They have launched efforts to force him out of office, and to look for (or create) pretexts for his dismissal. For the time being, Rudakov is winning. Optimizing the value of the pgm stockpilesFor many years through 1999, the Finance Ministry emptied its pgm stockpile by selling directly on to the market through Gokhran, and by "selling" to the Central Bank in exchange for rouble emission to cover monthly budget deficits. In this fashion, more than half the palladium and platinum Russia delivered to market each year came, not from current mine production or reprocessing, but from stockpiles. The ostensible justification for that was the government's financing requirement. The Central Bank tried to negotiate some palladium swaps in the earlier years, but did not succeed until 1999. Transactions of that kind are allowed, according to the law on the Central Bank, to generate a profit, which the Bank can retain on its books for a full year, and only half of which must be repaid to the state treasury. Fees associated with Central Bank transactions can be earned indirectly by Bank officers, while Bank profits may be lodged in banks in which Bank officers have personal positions. The Central Bank stocks that remained at the end of last year were reclaimed by the Finance Ministry by February 2000. A swap transaction was carried out at the time on government instruction, and no further stockpile sales have taken place. Rudakov camouflaged this for as long as he could, driving spot prices to records, as the market waited and speculated on when export quotas and export licences would be signed. Now that process, which has produced five months of delay at the start of each year, is no longer necessary. Even if quotas and licences are issued before the new year starts, there will be no exports from stockpiles in 2001.Supplies traded by Almazjuvelirexport – the single-channel marketing agency under the Finance Ministry – will be priced in line with the spot market. The traditional distinction Almazjuvelirexport made between customer contracts (80% of volume) and spot market sales (20%) has disappeared. Now all sales are linked to the spot market price. This trend will keep Russian supplies tight in 2001, and boost prices. If the market realizes what's up, palladium could hit $1,000 by Christmas.Reorganization of state agenciesThe replacement of Valery Borisoglebsky as head of Almazjuvelirexport several weeks ago brings to an end the period of loose control over Russian pgm trading. His replacement has not been formally appointed, and acting in his stead is Rustam Usmanov, an Almajuvelirexport veteran and specialist on diamonds. The change means much stricter supervision of pgm export pricing, and the elimination of the profiteering that occurred in the past. It also means an end to attempts by Norilsk Nickel to end the state monopoly on export trading of pgm by buying out Almaz USA Inc. the US outlet for Russian pgm. Norilsk Nickel says it is still hopeful of making the acquisition. The outcome has already been decided. The effect is less Russian pgm on the market.Reorganization of the Central BankThe process of reorganizing Russia's Central Bank has already started with first reports indicating that all commercial operations of the Bank are to end. This should stop the Bank's efforts to swap pgm and earn private profits and personal kickbacks – a process which has been going on for several years.The expansion of Vneshtorgbank, a state-owned bank run by a close associate of the chairman of the Central Bank, and Vneshtorgbank's entry into platinum trading, provide an alternative outlet. But so far this is limited to a small volume of platinum, and no palladium at all.Turning the screws on Norilsk NickelThe company is under investigation by the government watchdog, Federal Securities Commission, for illegally managing a swap of shares between the old RAO Norilsk Nickel holding and the new Norilsk Mining Company. It is facing criminal charges from the federal tax police. The Moscow city prosecutor has opened a case on how the company was privatized between 1995 and 1997. Parliament is ready to intervene, if the courts aren't tough enough. Vladimir Potanin, the oligarch who controls the company, has been targeted by the Kremlin, and cannot hope to survive without paying open and hidden penalties. Among the so far undisclosed penalties is the likelihood that Norilsk Nickel will have to cede some of its platinum export quota to the alluvial producers of Russia's Fareast.Gokhran officials hint that Norilsk Nickel is already obliged to deliver palladium to replenish state stocks, and may have to contribute a bigger volume next year.Add up these five points, and what do you get? A palladium price approaching $1,000 – at least until shipments start next year. In the recent past, the driver for price increases has been market uncertainty on two scores – whether Russia had depleted its stockpiles to the point where it could not deliver at past levels, especially for palladium; and whether the internecine conflicts between the major producer, stockpile agency, and Central Bank would be protracted past the first quarter of each year. That uncertainty has now been replaced by certainty. Russia will not deliver at past levels, and will manage supply contracting and deliveries in such a way as to sustain high to record high prices. By: John Helmer Black Blade: Curious isn't it? I have been harping on this for over a year now, and it is finally coming to light. With gentlemen such as John Helmer at MiningWeb.com, perhaps we can continue to shine the bright lights on the cockroaches. The PGM supplies began to get squeezed during the last years of communism as the need for hard currency became acute. Though I'm no fan of communism, they certainly had more control over the PGM stockpiles. Once Soviet communism collapsed, there was still the need for hard currency, however, the criminal overlords surfaced and became more brazen as the Soviet Union collapsed into the Confederated Independent States (CIS). They and corrupt government officials stole anything of value – that includes the PGM stockpiles. Even the largest producer – Norilsk Nickel was not immune. Now the investigation of how Vladimir Potanin got such privileged treatment is under investigation. This is far from an isolated incident of course. The whole country is corrupt from top to bottom. After 70 years of a morally and economically bankrupt political system, once communism collapsed, it was as if children were set loose in a candy store. They had no idea of how a free market economy is supposed to operate. The PGM stockpiles were ravaged by the corrupt influences (primarily corrupt government officials and organized crime). The collapse and default of the Russian bonds only served to accelerate the raids into the pgm stockpiles for hard currencies. Any Russian PGM supply that comes into the open markets will of course have to come from current product – provided it too isn't stolen. The only consolation is that most of that metal will eventually make it to market through less that legitimate means. Palladium didn't quite make it to $1000/oz. By Xmas, but may yet hit that mark and beyond as the realization that Palladium supplies are not likely to be forth coming. How often over the past year did the Russians make the claim that PGM deliveries were just around the corner, only to disappoint? I would also suggest that the NYMEX will likely delist Palladium from the futures trade in the coming months (my New Year's prediction). Black Blade (12/31/2000; 0:31:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 44730) RE: Mo Ver Meg, SHIFTY, and Golden Truth Mo Ver Meg: You're right about denial of the energy crisis. In terms of inflation adjusted dollars, oil would have to be priced about a $100.00/bbl to be equivalent to a $30.00/bbl oil in 1973. The real story that continues to unfold is Natural Gas. In terms of barrel equivalent Natural Gas, the price is at $100.00/bbl. There is a crisis unfolding and the few people that are feeling the pressure are the Grasshoppers in California. They brought this upon themselves, so feel no pity for them. The unfortunate result is that this crisis is spreading to other regions where people have prepared by building power plants, natural gas pipelines, continue to utilize coal and nuclear power, and are now asked – no told, to sacrifice for the large voting majority of Grasshoppers who didn't prepare. They don't just call them green for nothing. Until they are weaned from the "forced" welfare of others, they aren't going to conserve energy at all. I've seen this all before with these Grasshoppers. I remember when there was a drought not long ago in California. Because the majority of voters live in southern California, the northern Californians had to forego watering lawns, washing cars, and were asked to conserve water with a variety of techniques. What happened? The southern Californians continues to fill their swimming pools and frolicked, danced, sang, and played all summer…SHIFTY: Alcohol fuel, for the body and the car I suppose. I know that in Brazil, there were vehicles, Volks Wagen Beetles I think, that were powered by alcohol manufactured from sugar cane by product. I am not sure if that program is still in effect. I know that in the US there has been legislation that requires the manufacture of ethanol for use in some fuels. This has been a help to corn farmers, however, it is not all that cost effective. There are some powerful senators and representatives from the Midwest, so it is likely to actually increase the cost of gasoline slightly. I'll raise my glass of sour mash to your glass of ethanol – On the other hand, I think I'll siphon some Brazilian fuel. Cheers!Golden Truth: I went to spend Xmas with family, so I had been gone a few days. I had just returned only to come down with a bout of malaria. The hazards of working in SE Asia. I am on the road to recovery though. Glad you enjoy reading about the trials and tribulations of Hydro-Carbon man. It will get much worse before it gets any better. I suspect that the greens will lose a lot of support once people begin to suffer because of their policies. BTW, I don't hear a lot of talk about the myth of man induced Global Warming anymore. Remember last year when Al Gore was standing in the bright sunshine and declared "What more proof do you need of Global Warming?" Now with blizzards along the East Coast, to paraphrase the VP, "what more proof do you need of Global Cooling?" Hmmmmmmmm… ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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