All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Gold Standard (12/30/03; 23:58:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 114370)
Safekeeping @ Lady Liberty
Lady Liberty,
get a copy of Edgar Allan Poe's "Purloined Letter". The best place to hide something is in plain sight.
As you said previously:-
"Am asking for input because it's entirely possible I am missing something really obvious, right in front of my face, or something that has never crossed my mind."
Cheers! GS
Lady Liberty (12/30/03; 23:29:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 114369)
Safeguarding physical holds
Keeping topics separate. Hence two posts.
What are some reliable holds in the home for PMs? Floor safes? Whatever you are comfortable sharing. (I imagine lots of good ideas are already out and about.)
TIA
Lady Liberty (12/30/03; 23:26:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 114368)
Mortgage vs. Physical Holdings?
Learning lots here. Survival thread fascinating. More please! Comments on the natural gas situation?
Have decided to "break" my Roth IRA. 10% penalty tax now will be a whole lot less than later when we are moved (against our wills probably if hyperinflation occurs) into a higher tax bracket.
Spouse has proposed we put the IRA proceeds towards our mortage, cut off 1 year (7 years to go yet). We both are anxious to get house paid off.
BUT.... I don't want to shoot myself in the foot. Should I get gold, as Aristotle is fond of saying? Or go for the mortgage lump sum?
Am asking for input because it's entirely possible I am missing something really obvious, right in front of my face, or something that has never crossed my mind. TIA
Caradoc (12/30/03; 23:21:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 114367)
Adding a thought or two to Solomon's suggestion
I agree completely with Solomon's advice to start with physical metal in hand before (or if need be instead of) looking at precious metal equities. Going further, I'd advocate real items (land, hardware) related to physical security before venturing into equities. The GAB was correct in saying that stored water gets used up, but a reliable artesian spring with gravity flow down to your residence might let you flush while others are carrying buckets on shoulder poles or bartering for water to drink. Even without the luxury of an artesian spring, a couple of solar panels will power one of the new 24-volt submersible deep pumps and deliver a small but steady stream of water for 8 or 10 hours per day. Make it four panels and a couple of batteries and you get that same stream 24 hours per day.
Going even further (and recognizing that various events may get us to the point where "all paper will burn"), there'a a lot to be said for the leverage of numismatic coins over bullion coins. True, a stash of new gold Eagles and pre-64 silver coins ("junk silver") would be better for bartering and so belong in your initial holdings, but I can vouch that the paper dollar price of graded-and-slabbed Saint Gaudens has skyrocketed compared to the 10% increase that gold has seen between the high 370s and today's price.
What follows may sound flakey, but if/when you're ready to look at equities (i.e., you've taken care of what's real and know you're venturing into a realm that's at least slightly unreal), you might as well admit that you're playing a game where the object is to increase the number in the lower right hand corner of your monitor. There's nothing disloyal about selling when a stock is up sharply for 3 days in a row and is banging against its upper trend line. Actually, it frees up cash that you can use to buy back a couple of days later, preferably just after a mid-morning New York smashdown in the price of gold. And there's nothing inherently wrong with options. Yeah, they're "risky and not appropriate for all investors" and it's a cliche that "most options expire worthless." But my bet is that an in-the-money option good through June or July won't decay in value if you're going with a North American gold or silver producer. Instead, for the next few months it'll make that number at the bottom of your monitor grow just as if you actually owned all those shares of stock. The only hard part will be forcing yourself to unload the option on an up day when it looks like you could do even better if you held on for just one more day (as in "pigs get slaughtered.")
Finally, as you succeed in increasing the paper dollar value of your equity account, there's nothing wrong with pulling some money off the top and buying more of the real thing.
Good fortune to all!
Caradoc
Gandalf the White (12/30/03; 23:09:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 114366)
The US$ continues its PLUNGE ! (see the chart at the LINK)
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y&Interval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10
GOLD (and silver) look far better as INSURANCE than other items !
<;-)
seacross (12/30/03; 23:09:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 114365)
Mind over Gold !
Last week I forewarned my colleagues that gold will test 418 when it opens after the new year. I sat amazed at the zooming gold arrow and testing 417 and above on Monday. They all whirled around to my cubicle and shouted 'what now? and where to?' I wanted to say '422 next stop and down a bit' but something tells me, the dollar is in the claw of a collective-monkey-wrench and not to get released early. Meaning no stop at 422 either and is likey to breeze past 425 and to 427 by 11th Jan NY close. Profit booking will dampen this a bit though.
physicalman (12/30/03; 22:55:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 114364)
silver r powell
Glad to see the price of silver cross a 2nd level of adjustment in price. I believe the real pain in the silver shorts will occur when it crosses 7.50 as that will be a multi-year high and will take out the high of 7.11 when Warren finished his accumulation of his 129 mil. ozs. of AG.
From what i understand from some close friends is that Warren has direct control of 86 million ozs of silver and 43 million were left in the system for leasing etc. Of course this would still leave him by far as the largest holder of physical supplies on the planet.
Noticed some articles these last few months about Kodak having cut production of its standard film products because of digital camera sales. You will probably see more propaganda from the silver users now that we are in the 6-7 dollar an oz. range as to do anything to soften the price pressures of the market but they will all be lies. Notice how Kodak talks about their standard film production being down but noone says anything about how much fuji films is up. Also Kodaks i hour film centers and kiosks have upped their business in the last 18 months over 40%. I'll bet that the amount of silver being used in the developing nations is up double digits as the people in those countries have more discretionary income and are consuming products that have silver, copper etc. as a raw material.
For what its worth i have a very large (to me) physical position in silver (and gold) and am pleased to see it rise in value. But the rise is price is really hollow to me as i do not believe that the fiat montary system will survive in anywhere close to it's present form to allow anyone to actually profit in decimal terms. As for the survival discussion earlier i think whether you are alone or with community (friends) will depend on where you reside. If it gets to the point that there are supply disruptions of food, fuel etc. look around you at society and see how many people there are that could make it 40-50- miles in the country on foot and put up a good fight for your provisions. I think the govt.( what there is of it) at that time will do their best to relieve suffering in the metro areas and the rural folks will be on their own. So BB's advice will be of paramount importance to those that live in the rural areas.
Nothing else to add, want to wish everyone a safe, happy, healthy and prosperous new years. Will go back to lurking and will see everyone in a couple of months when my next work project is completed.
Goldilox (12/30/03; 22:54:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 114363)
Writings on the wall
@ operative
It's sooooo much easier to read the writing on the wall when your neighbor's wall has just been blown to smithereens. Given how much in kahoots with the west Saddam's history was, Ghadafi must know his leash is even shorter.
His "reaching out to the UN" has the US scrambling for quick resolutions so that European companies don't get there first for all the cushy deals.
Operative (12/30/03; 22:06:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 114362)
@ Druid Re: Lybia
I wonder if the Lybian leader is a better reader of the "writings on the wall" than Saddam was?
Is this recent turn of events showing a two prong effort on the USA's part? The arab world is divided in many avenues. It would be an error to think otherwise. History has shown this to be true. Arab nation vs arab nation. Most arab nations have major conflicts amongst even their own populataions. Has the US declared "war" on the most radical arab countries, and at the same time offered an olive leaf to the one's willing to negoiate thier future?
Solomon Weaver (12/30/03; 21:41:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 114361)
any change in silver fundamentals
R Powell / Waverider / Mr. Gresham / other silver watchers
My personal interests in silver have always come from a direct comparison to gold, as they are both available in very similar types of bullion forms, only that for the time being, a given dollar amount of silver is much heavier to move around. At the current time, both also seem to offer the property of being a "repository of value", thus, for ones like us, fulfilling the quality of money that it may be used as a form of savings.
The fundamentals in silver, with an multi-decade supply deficit, a global mining industry that has spent very little direct investment in silver rich assets, and a rapidly modernizing China, appear to dictate that the price of silver must rise to a new level which makes it profitable to mine, and that new price must hold for long enough (years) to convince mining companies that it is a real price rise. Thus, conservatively, it seems apparent that silver really needs to be at a minimum in a range of $6-10 per ounce. I think this is a fundamental aspect of the market, and I think that even the silver manipulators (if there are such) see that now, so, IMO, with the dollar falling, most players in silver are buying into that readjustment. (I.e., only fools would heavily short silver now, thinking it will return to recent lows).
Another item to take into consideration. There was a petition created on the web a few months ago, and after it had on the order of 1500 names, it was sent to Elliot Spitzer. I believe that this event was about as significant as the lawsuits initiated by certain large gold coin traders, and by friends of GATA (R. Howe). In particular, it may not have made heads role yet, but it has probably stimulated some house cleaning. In particular, the big short sellers will be forced to keep their COT figures a bit more tame.
Whether or not it is related to silver, I do believe that the end of 2003 is the date when the existing head of the CFTC will formally resign. It is uncertain to me whether the replacement will be a political figure (who can help smooth over and cover-up), or a financier (who would try to improve the integrity)....given that Warren Buffet is purported to still own 130 million ounces of silver, I would hunch that he has been consulted on this.
Furthermore, Warren Buffet has been very quiet over these years about the status of his actual holdings, and it was widely purported that about 1/2 of his 130 million ounces remained leased (probably since calling those silver loans would have lit a bomb in certain banking houses who he is friendly with). Now that Mr. Buffet is admitting to parking $billions of Berkshire Hathaway assets in "foreign currencies", it would seem logical that he is also working behind the scenes to strengthen his position in silver, for example, either beginning to close out leases, or at least lobbying to make sure that CFTC actions don't work against the longs. Although it is uncertain how much silver Mr. Buffet still controls, it seems safe to say that he is still very much on the long side. In my opinion, he cornered the physical market 5 years ago, and has been very patient in letting the world discover that.
Last point, given that much of the "silver rise" is actually a "dollar fall", and given the many and much larger opportunities to hedge and speculate in dollar ups and downs, I would say that it is safe to say that many of the big players who are exposed to a silver rise have been able to hedge by selling dollars, which would mean they would not be getting quite the squeeze one would think. The real problems for them will be when the dollar starts to come back and silver stays strong.....
So, R. Powell, I think in years to come, silver historians will look at year end 2003 and will write about certain fundamentals along these lines.
Poor old Solomon
21mabry (12/30/03; 21:25:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 114360)
(No Subject)
I have just started listening to the Roger Arnold show on the web at the tiger financial news website.Its a daily show and its archived,if you like Jim Puplava,Mark Faber,and Jim Rogers thoughts and interviews you will like this show.He discusses mostly macro econ,world economies,talks about gold,this guy seems to have an excellent handle on the world economy and its workings.21
Solomon Weaver (12/30/03; 20:55:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 114359)
Twincaman - why gold up and gold funds down
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0%2C%2C8211-943853%2C00.html
Twincaman
I post a link to an article which appeared linked by our hosts in today's updates.
I would like to use it to help explain why the price of gold funds may be down a bit, even as gold moves up.
First, I might say that the author of the article has done a reasonable job of catching many of the "themes" in gold this year...although, there are certain false understandings in my opion as well...
Read through that article and tell me if you really understand GOLD INVESTING any better than before you read it.
What stands out in this article is that it is more bullish (or interested) in ways to invest fiat in gold related paper situations. The few references it makes to actual gold ownership tend to make it sound like owing gold is the least interesting opportunity.
In truth, the actual physical metal is usually the least volatile of all these opportunities. For example, if you buy real gold today at about $420/ounce, it would take a lot of time and unexpected events to drive the price back down to $210, such that you would have "lost" half of your investment (when viewed using fiat dollars as the benchmark). The same events would obviously drive the value of various precious metals funds down much lower than 50%, and could return the capital value of certain junior minors back to almost zero.
Continuing the example, were your purchase of today at $420/ounce to rise by the end of 2004 to $480/ounce, you would have about a 15% annual return (again, when viewed using fiat dollars as the benchmark). At the same time, well managed gold funds should in the same period go up even more.
So, there is less "risk" in real gold...so this authors reference to "diverse" gold holdings is (IMO) wrong.
You might also note that much of the apparent rise in the value of gold is when it is marked in dollars...if you were to mark all your wealth back to Euros, those same gold holdings have not done as well. Another way to look at it, gold is now becoming more expensive for Americans to buy, but not much more expensive for Europeans to buy. Many gold mining companies have costs of operations in other countries, and because of this, even as the dollar value of gold rises, their profits in dollars does not rise as fast, and they therefore can even underperform gold.
For the last several months, we have been in an environment where most pundits think that the global economies are improving (so profits made this year in holding gold equities are being cashed out to buy back into mainstream stocks) and so gold funds are losing favor, even as most see that the dollar currency is trending down, and they either buy gold outright, or hedge into it, thereby moving the spot price up.
I make a small personal suggestion to new readers here:
Make sure that a starting core position in your portfolio is real gold (and real silver).....and if you have more to play with, then try some of the gold funds, etc. If you are lucky and make nice profits on the paper side, buy more real metal with your winnings.
Poor old Solomon
Melting Pot (12/30/03; 20:49:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 114358)
Gleaning The Cube
http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=1203
As you can see above, when put against the broad measure of stocks in the US, holding dollars in this manner has been a good method of preserving one's wealth, and goes a long way in explaining the strength in domestic markets this past year. Here's where it gets interesting however, as it is difficult to categorize what has happened in this regard as a 'panic' to date, because over the past several months stock prices have been rising on decreasing relative volume. (See Figure 2)
How can this be? Simple, nobody is selling because when you do, one receives dollars in exchange, and nobody wants more pieces of worthless paper to confiscate their wealth through the depreciation process this currency unit must continue to endure because of the imbalances authorities have now manufactured.
And, based on the fact monetary aggregates were contracting in the fall, but have recently turned higher once again, the real 'panic' out of the USD has probably not even occurred yet, where one can now expect increasing quantities of debt induced fiat attempting to find a reasonable home away from dollars to push not only stocks higher, but of course 'tangibles' also, which has in fact been the primary trend for several years now, spawning new bull markets within this spectrum as well.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/mt/page6.pdf
With what appears to be the bottoming of a short-term credit cycle in December, as evidenced in a renewed expansion of monetary aggregates in the US, price mangers may have finally fully released 'Pandora's Box' in the formula, where most participants will not mind the ride up at first, but may not be so enthusiastic about what happens in 'Weimar Republic' type circumstances latter on. For now though, we are likely to see more and more investors begin to participate in the euphoria most will not even consciously embrace, driving both paper based and tangible equity groups across the board higher in a frenzied fashion, and expanding the mania into commodities, not the least of which affected will be precious metals (PM's). Just take a look at gold against the USD, which is mounting a breakout from its current growth channel into sinusoidal amplitude gyrations. (See Figure 3)
R Powell (12/30/03; 20:33:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 114357)
Waverider // silver
Thanks. There are many of us silverbugs who have waited for a long, long time.
I haven't seen any fundamental news so I'll have to guess that this is a dollar and gold related move. Silver moves in mysterious ways and often at times that aren't understandable even in hindsight. It would disappoint me but not surprise me to see her run up in larger daily moves for a while longer and then, for no apparent reason drop sharply and quickly. Right now she seems strong and maybe about to make a spike upward. Actually, this would not be healthy but sure would be fun to see.
The supply/demand picture has not changed that I'm aware of, deficit still with no one able to guess when that situation will reach the point (market awareness) where price rationing is needed. Interest rates don't indicate any immediate physical shortage.
I don't know. I thought $400 gold would awaken her to approach $6.00. Maybe she just wanted to take her own sweet time. I'm watching for investor interest. This is a very small (total market cap) market and has the potential to really explode. I wonder what Warren Buffett thinks and knows? Hey, Warren, what's up?
Thanks for the chart!
Rich
Waverider (12/30/03; 20:14:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 114356)
Rich...
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=SLV.FX1
...this one's for you!! :)
R Powell (12/30/03; 19:43:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 114355)
And grining a grin......
EagleOne, you asked ...
"Silver just busted through the top of Kitco's chart and is trading at $6.01. Not much word from the table about silver outperforming gold lately. Hows come?"
I can only answer for myself. The problem seems to be that I just can't stop grinning long enough to think of anything witty to say.
Hey, Ski, are you watching !!
Rich
Druid (12/30/03; 19:30:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 114354)
Libya's Lockerbie Deal Sets Potential Bonanza in Motion for Global Oil Companies
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/duarte/122303.html
Snip.
Ghadafi's Gamble
Among the most interesting stories of the week is the $2.7 billion settlement between Lybia, the U.K. and the U.S. in which Libya took responsibility for the Lockerbie, Scotland bombing, and renounced terrorism. And although it is a welcome development by most accounts, as with all political solutions, what is not said is often more important than what is widely reported. Perhaps most important is to ask why Lybia even decided to move in this direction.
Stratfor.com, as usual, seems to have put its finger on the pulse of the situation, as to why Ghadafi made the deal. The intelligence web site wrote on 8-19: "This public relations gambit is driven primarily by geopolitical concerns: Gadhafi, a great survivalist, is hemmed in by two potential threats -- a more aggressive post-Sept. 11 United States on one side and the threat of militant Islam on the other. This has led Gadhafi to a strategy that seeks to resurrect Libya's international image while simultaneously trying to radically reform the state-run economy through privatization and access to foreign investment -- starting with the petroleum sector. These reforms have become a priority for regime survival in a complicated world." More plainly stated: "Libya has no interest in being Syria or Iran, let alone Iraq. A kinder, gentler face from Tripoli will help to keep the country off the U.S. blacklist, as will economic reforms that increase Western powers' access to and interest in the oil-rich country."
And finally: "A stronger economy may help Gadhafi to fend off a potential domestic threat that feeds on poverty, large numbers of disenfranchised youth and unemployment. After decades of economic mediocrity under a state-run system, Gadhafi likely calculates that the quickest road to strengthening the economy -- and keeping constituents happy -- will come through attracting foreign capital. Coincidentally, this also would enrich Gadhafi and his allies -- another fine motivator."
Druid: Dollar Bill, I know you inquired of Belgian for a response about Libya's oil so I thought I would throw this perspective into the mix.
Dollar Bill (12/30/03; 19:04:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 114353)
*>*
Sir Belgian, this latest news of Bush and Blair to visit Lybia, do you have any news from your world that sheds some light on this? How does the arab street see this make sense?
What is Kadafi saying? What happened to him? Did he convert to christianity? There is a story here, maybe you know some of it? I appreciated your idea that Kadafi might play for gain, but to play to the extent of having Bush and Blair visit ! How does he explain that to the Arabs?
You know this, but I just read this take by someone on the web..."The US has consumed the excess production from all parts of the world for the past decade in exchange for what? IOUs written in its own currency, which is has promptly consigned to the trash heap. This means the US was able to consume for much less than they would otherwise and will not shoulder the burden of repayment in real terms!"
EagleOne (12/30/03; 18:40:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 114352)
The steath metal
Silver just busted through the top of Kitco's chart and is trading at $6.01. Not much word from the table about silver outperforming gold lately. Hows come?
Gold Standard (12/30/03; 18:35:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 114351)
Silver blasts through $6.00
Currently $6.01, and climbing.
The rate of change in silver is now apparent as an increase across most currencies.
Could this be the start of something big?
Cheers! GS
21mabry (12/30/03; 18:18:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 114350)
fiat
I was thinking about what makes a counties fiat acceptable to its citizens and the world.I came to the conclusion a countries ability to project military powereither regionaly or globaly is a major factor in its fiats acceptability.A countries percieved economic strength is a given in its percieved global worth,and I am sure there are other factors.The major fiat currencies starting with the U.S.D is accepted because of both economic and military strength of America,the Euro is accepted because of economic strength first and Nato minus the U.S. can not really project its military power outside of europe.The Yen is accepted based entirely on economic strength same with the Pound.The chinese Yuan will be accepted when convertible on Chinas economic strength alone,regionaly it will be accepted because of its military and if China can build a blue water navy it could rival all other major fiat.Then we have gold it has no military force it has no national economy but is the most powerful currency on its own inherent properties and then there is silver which posseses most of golds qualities but to a lesser degree.So the metals stand alone in needing nothing but their own physical properties to be of value.21
Goldilox (12/30/03; 18:16:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 114349)
Weimar hyperinflala
The most interesting correlation of the current US rock/hard place to Weimar Germany is the motivation to inflate their way out of debt. The debtberg imposed by the Allies post Great War retributions left the German gubmint with no other choice. Print the money and pay off the foreign devils.
Let's see, just who is buying all that US Tresury debt?
Once trouble brews, some super hero nationalist icon will lead us to glory. . .
got gold?
Dollar Bill (12/30/03; 17:17:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 114348)
*>*
Towncrier, this is from your link;
"But the government, lacking adequate income, felt forced to resort more and more to creating money. By October 1923, 1% of government income came from taxes and 99% from the creation of new money
Despite the proliferating billions of trillions of marks, the average citizen found it harder and harder to get enough money for necessities. Banks, short of money, could not honor checks. Businessmen were strapped for money to buy materials and meet payrolls. The government faced the same problem. It appeared that there was not too much money around, but rather much too little. The clamor for more money grew on all sides. It seemed that any halt to the printing presses would bring business to a standstill and throw millions of workers out on the street. The government itself would be unable to carry on. Riding a tiger, it dared not dismount. On October 25, 1923, the Reichsbank noted that it had that day printed 120,000 trillion marks. Unfortunately, the day's demand had been for one million trillion. However, it announced that it was expanding production and the daily issue would soon be 500,000 trillion!"
Well no wonder Bereneke feels he has room to inflate the currency.
Clink! (12/30/03; 16:40:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 114347)
@ R Powell
Rich, you said :-
'If the rate of depreciation of the dollar increases, are the views of such people as Hathaway, Russell, uncle "Harry" and Hamilton that the POG may reach four figures that incredible?
If the ride from POG=$400 to $500 takes much less time than did POG $300 to $400, then will there even be time enough to find a seat for the ride from $500 to $600?'
I know a graphing technique which could help you answer that .......
LOL
C!
MK (12/30/03; 16:33:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 114346)
Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Report
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
Just finished reading the AGR -- another outstanding synopsis of market conditions. It 's not hard to see why this report is picked up at so many other sites around the internet. I think one would be hard-pressed to find a better summation of the market on a daily basis than what is found at the link above.
R Powell (12/30/03; 15:57:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 114344)
Townie
Thanks, for the reminder of the amount of great knowledge available here. Other than knowing to cite the source, I'm fairly ignorant of copyright laws but, if not a problem or if satisfied with the proper references and credits, how many books could be materialized from the archives?
Just food for thought in case you get bored. ;>)
Rich
R Powell (12/30/03; 15:47:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 114343)
ANOO
Your words....
"I intend to make the most of the potential for safety that I perceive extant in options, even though others have said there is no such thing. I am not after every penny, though I watch the market as though I were."
Some thoughts if I may: You're talking here of hedging or spending a small portion of the gain to insure the greatest percentage of the gain. There are numerous strategies. I won't get specific at all but will say that such insurance is not much different in intent than homeowners' or life insurance. I often find it helpful to think in terms of positioning so as not losing gains rather than in terms of more gain.
With 87 points (wow!) per contract you have at least doubled the account, no? Be careful. If gold's rate of appreciation increases, I would imagine margin increases will be announced. We play a game in which we can not make the rules and others can change them at their discretion. There may be a tendency now for you to become a trader rather than an investor. These markets are designed more for "knowledgeable gambling" than for buy and hold investing. These are merciless markets and very dangerous. Your broker wants more "action" (read commissions) and will encourage this. Again, congrats, well done!
For the conspiracy believers among us, ANOO is thrashing the shorts!
Questions:
If the rate of depreciation of the dollar increases, are the views of such people as Hathaway, Russell, uncle "Harry" and Hamilton that the POG may reach four figures that incredible?
If the ride from POG=$400 to $500 takes much less time than did POG $300 to $400, then will there even be time enough to find a seat for the ride from $500 to $600?
Rich
TownCrier (12/30/03; 15:38:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 114342)
Understanding the German hyperinflation
http://www.usagold.com/GermanNightmare.html
When you can't get your hands on a book, this commentary in our Gilded Opinion section might be the next best thing: "The Nightmare German Inflation".
see url
R.
R Powell (12/30/03; 15:06:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 114341)
Melting Pot
Thanks for the quotes and the thoughts.
I was reminded of a book called "When Money Dies" by Adam Ferguson which explained and described the currency failure in the Weimar Republic in Germany right after WW1 (early 1920s).
I remember reading that the currency devaluation allowed some farmers to pay in full their mortgages with only a portion of the profits from one harvest. At the same time city folk, especially retired workers and disabled soldiers, living on fixed incomes were sometimes literally starving. There were incidents of "raids" on the farms by hungry city dwellers looking for food. Grand pianos were traded for a pig or a few bushels of vegtables. At the same time the government went broke because by the time taxes were collected, the currency amount collected was almost worthless. Workers demanded daily pay and spent it on the way home. By the time new currency with much larger numbers on it was printed, yes, you guessed it, it was already almost worthless. The rate of depreciation increased at a tremendous rate. Controled dollar decline?? And gold? Yes, it saved many souls.
The book gets a little bogged down in the monetary semantics and political struggles at times but is well worth the read. It's hard to find as, with much that's worth reading, it's out of print.
Rich
TownCrier (12/30/03; 15:02:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 114340)
Haiku fun with 'RotK'
[Warning: there be spoilers]
And so it begins.
Everyone must play their part.
An epic struggle.
~~~
Gandalf takes command.
Gondor's beacons call for aid,
still more is needed.
~~~
The Paths of the Dead.
Strider, Legolas. . . . Gimli.
"The way is shut." NOT!
~~~
Theoden's riders.
Orcs on the Pelennor Fields.
One charge rules them all.
~~~
Some help for Frodo.
Men wage war to buy him time.
At what price, Precious?
~~~
Climbing up Mt. Doom.
A quest to destroy One ring.
<bloop!> "Nooooooooo... 'twas REAL gold!!!"
R.
Operative (12/30/03; 14:53:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 114339)
What He Really Meant To Say
In the movie Thunder Dome, a city called Bartertown may be telling of our foreign policy. Bartertown, run by Tina Turner is at the mercy of a little man who controls the energy for the city. Tina Turner plays the part of the city's leader and is adept at ticking this guy off and he is quick to pull the switch on the power supply showing all who really is in control. Mel Gibson's character is brought into the plot by Turner to remove the energy czar. I use this illustration becuase in the simplist of terms I cannot help but wonder if that is the driving force behind our current administrations foreign policy. Thier appearing lack of concern over having sold the Fort Knox stash may be as simple as if they can control the world's oil/energy structure, then the gold can be replaced at some future later date. I wonder if the spokesman who last week proclaimed, "We got him!", really meant to say "We got it!", meaning the oil. The US as a giant/leader in the industrial age is over. There simply are too many billions of peoples willing/happy to work for a few dollars a day. While our military is still the best, the question begs for answers is how long? How long before China will put forward the largest and most advanced military machine? The Wal-Marts of the world already have the "made in China" labels attached to near darn everything. Is the future to reveal that the US will hold the energy card, Asia to hold the manufacturing card, and the newly formed/forming EU will be left holding the joker in the deck? It would be nice to see the official transcripts of Nixon's visit to China, too bad they will not be made public for a few more decades. Just pondering some thoughts as this year soon comes to an end. And thankfull for that little stash of gold, and the cans of beans. Will help calm the spirits yet to come in 2004.
Liberty Head (12/30/03; 14:50:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 114338)
a nation of one
Thank you kindly for your response. I generally agree with most everything you post.
You have an admirable philosophy. Perhaps we can benefit from more of your posts once you get your laptop?
Best Wishes
a nation of one (12/30/03; 14:22:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 114337)
to R Powell
Today my account is worth twice what I originally put into it. I am sure my broker is waiting to call me at the slightest downturn, to scream that I should sell, as he has done numerous times in the past. And there is a considerable uncertainty at this time, whether to hold. But with the dollar dropping and the other news I hear, and the preponderence of the articles that I read, I think the probable outcomes of holding still outweigh those of liquidating. My goal is not to benefit from the highs and lows of the secondary or intermediate movements, but to benefit from the primary trend, which I believe will be ongoing for at least several more years. My contracts are for December 2004 gold, and I intend to close these out before summer, if the price justifies it, and roll them forward. I am presently covered to 87 points on the downside, should anything happen. I would buy more contracts, but, right now, that would cut my coverage on the downside, and in this object I intend to make the most of the potential for safety that I perceive extant in options, even though others have said there is no such thing. I am not after every penny, though I watch the market as though I were.
I also hold physical gold, in the form of bullion coins. These too are doing well, certainly. And I am likely to get more, as chances arise. Were it not for my contract positions, I probably wouldn't even follow the gold market daily, since I never worry about the physical, just the contracts, and, oh, the shares in Goldcorp and Newmont, that I also bought. They've done well also. But the bullion coins (for anybody who may be considering buying some) are simply great to hold and forget, under these circumstances. I never worry about them. Our host is a good source for these. I speak from personal experience.
Federal_Reserves (12/30/03; 14:05:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 114336)
Missed estimates and bogus markets.
http://www.bullandbearwise.com/FOMOOutChart.asp
Missed estimates.
So today we see these fundamentals get missed (see below), yet the stock market goes up? Certainly a little 1-2%shaving from the 52 week highs would be expected in a logical, free trading, market of stocks.
10:01 ET Existing Homes Sales 6.06 mln vs 6.33 mln consensus : <MISSED>
10:00 ET Chicago PMI 59.2 vs 62.0 consensus : <MISSED>
10:00 ET Consumer Confidence 91.3 vs 91.8 consensus <MISSED>
What happened. SnP Stocks finished green!
What the heck?
OH! The FED was pumping again?
YUP YUP YUP another 1 billion in cash.
OH! That explains it!
LOOK at the mass manipulation FED repo's and market action.
Nice spike in the last 1/2 of trading bought the SnP into the green.
The balls on the roulette wheel are fixed to fall in the green right now. "Throw another billion on the fire."
Its a complete waste of time to study the funnymentals and trade off of that. Even technical analysis doesn't work.
Its up as long as Greenspan and the NYC banks say it is or something happens that pulls their pants down in public view.
Why ask why?
R Powell (12/30/03; 13:57:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 114335)
ANOO
You ended your message with these words...
"Thanks to the increase in gold over the past year and a half, doing so will be a very small matter."
This was in reference to buying a computer. While reading your words before you said as much, I was thinking of the struggle you went through with your "buy and hold" strategy on gold contracts during the last big downturn when POG retracted bigtime and I was guessing at what those contracts are now worth. Well pal, you were right, and those paper contracts have to be rolled at expiration (spread trade) but in so doing, there will be profit credited to ANOO's account. I hope there's plenty there for a laptop and maybe some coins as well. Maybe some gold earrings for the misses. As for coins, I like the silver ones. (You get more weight for the money.) M.K. does not sell computers. Please also refer to my earlier (114318) post concerning taxes.
Congratulations!
Rich
Melting Pot (12/30/03; 13:24:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 114334)
Compare Enron Charts to US Dollar Charts:
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=w
"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." [Human Action, p. 572.]
"By 1929 the speculative imbalances had become so overwhelming that the attempt precipitated a sharp retrenching and a consequent demoralizing of business confidence. As a result, the American economy collapsed." --Alan Greenspan Gold & Economic Freedom 1966
At the beginning the inflow of additional money makes the prices of some commodities and services rise; other prices rise later. The price rise affects the various commodities and services, as has been shown, at different dates and to a different extent. This first stage of the inflationary process may last for many years. While it lasts, the prices of many goods and services are not yet adjusted to the altered money relation. There are still people in the [p. 428] country who have not yet become aware of the fact that they are confronted with a price revolution which will finally result in a considerable rise of all prices, although the extent of this rise will not be the same in the various commodities and services. These people still believe that prices one day will drop. Waiting for this day, they restrict their purchases and concomitantly increase their cash holdings. As long as such ideas are still held by public opinion, it is not yet too late for the government to abandon its inflationary policy. But then finally the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs. The crack-up boom appears. Everybody is anxious to swap his money against "real" goods, no matter whether he needs them or not, no matter how much money he has to pay for them. Within a very short time, within a few weeks or even days, the things which were used as money are no longer used as media of exchange. They become scrap pater. Nobody wants to give away anything against them. It was this that happened with the Continental currency in America in 1781, with the French mandats territoriaux in 1796, and with the German Mark in 1923. It will happen again whenever the same conditions appear. If a thing has to be used as a medium of exchange, public opinion must not believe that the quantity of this thing will increase beyond all bounds. Inflation is a policy that cannot last."—Ludwig Von Mises
"In real terms, an inflationary depression is indistinguishable from a deflationary depression. In both cases production and incomes decline in real terms; in both cases liquidity problems proliferate; in both cases widespread bankruptcies occur. The distinction between a deflationary and inflationary depression is this: in a deflationary depression-- production, incomes and living standards generally all decline both in real terms and in nominal money terms; in an inflationary depression-- production, incomes and living standards generally also decline in real terms while at the same time all of these [categories] show increases in nominal money terms.
Inflation depreciates the purchasing value of the official currency and simultaneously appreciates the value of the officially abandoned real money (gold and silver). Over time the rate of fiat money issue tends to increase, causing a coincident but greater rate of depreciation in the market value of each unit and of nominally increasing total stock of paper currency. This, in turn, forces the officials to increase the rate of counterfeiting again and again in order to try to cover the soaring cost of under funded but already budgeted programs. The process then feeds on itself and ultimately destroys the currency completely, the currency ceases to be money by anybody's definition, and this pushes the paper money price of gold and silver into the stratosphere."—Page 58, "The Coming Currency Collapse, And What You Can Do About It." by Jerome F. Smith, c.1980. Bantam printing Oct.1981.
Goldilox (12/30/03; 13:15:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 114333)
Bush set to visit Libya
@ Operative:
I wonder if Dubya will have Ollie north cover the visit in his new role as "journalist". He certainly would have the most "inside" information. Such irony . . .
With apologies to Mark Russell and Tom Lehrer, my favorite satirists:
"How do you solve a problem like Muomhar?
How do you keep chameleons in the sand?"
Operative (12/30/03; 13:10:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 114332)
Point of No Return?
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=d12
The above link shows the us dollar over a one year period.
Take a look. Take a long look. It reminds me of a moment frozen in time in the life of every bungee jumper. The moment when the cord has reached it's farthest, the jumper experiences a millisecond of zero momentum. And he wonders, does the cord retract propelling him upward, or does it break. Course there is always the unexpected, the cord slips from it's securing, sending cord and jumper to his doom. Which at that point, the jumper will wish for that golden parachute. Hindsight can be too little, too late, and very messy.
Goldilox (12/30/03; 13:04:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 114331)
FED's Folly article
@ Melting Pot
What's more interesting than the rehash in this article is the source.
Thestreet.com is chaired by Jim Kramer, of Heckle and Jeckle fame. While the boss is touting recovery on national cableTV, his minions are more quietly warning of debt risks.
His behavior during the NasDOG boom was similar. He kept cheer leading tech stocks until he could get his hedge fund and advisory website positioned perfectly for the long ride down with bucket loads of puts in hand.
Operative (12/30/03; 12:51:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 114330)
Judge Orders Parmalat Chief Executive to Remain in Prison
http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAJ2E6BUOD.html
Judge Orders Parmalat Chief Executive to Remain in Prison
MILAN, Italy (AP) - A judge on Tuesday ordered former Parmalat chief executive Calisto Tanzi to remain in prison amid prosecutors' accusations he contributed to the dairy company's bankruptcy and misappropriated millions of dollars from its balance sheet.
Judge Guido Salvini rejected the defense request that Tanzi be granted house arrest pending formal indictment for what the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission called in a lawsuit against the company "one of the largest and most brazen corporate financial frauds in history.
Comment: Would it not be a fresh breath for our judicial system if we had a judge like Gudio Salvini? Imagine turning him loose on the likes of Enron, Worldcom, et al. Imagine honest money, or better yet, dont imagine, get you some today. (Hint; it is gold or silver in color, and not very easy to fold)
a nation of one (12/30/03; 12:44:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 114329)
to Liberty Head
My mistake. I didn't know that 401K could be made compulsory. That just makes it worse, in my opinion. When people have to do -with their own money- what other people tell them to, I think that's tyranny.
To all. I have only been following pog for about an hour a day for the past two weeks, since I am in a small town and have only the library here to rely on for Internet access. But from what little I have been able to see, it seems to me an important change has taken place in the action of the dollar in the past few days. I guess the DOW is going up for the reason a wise poster a day or two ago suggested ("artificially low interest rate, and liquidity being pumped into the system at a very high rate" or words to that effect).
From what I've seen, I can't say that the dollar will collapse. But I can say that if it ever does collapse, it will probably look very much like this just before it does.
I think I am going to have to buy a laptop.
Thanks to the increase in gold over the past year and a half, doing so will be a very small matter.
Operative (12/30/03; 12:40:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 114328)
Bush set to visit Libya
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/breaking_1.html
Bush set to visit Libya
in first half of 2004
Tuesday, December 30, 2003
LONDON – Libya is preparing for defense cooperation talks with the United States, leading to a visit by President Bush early next year.
Libyan officials said the United States has agreed to review Tripoli's defense requirements in wake of an agreement by Col. Moammar Khaddafy to eliminate his nation's medium-range missile and weapons of mass destruction arsenal. The officials said the two countries plan to begin formal talks on Libya's defense and security requirements over the next few months.
The officials said Britain and the United States will lift sanctions from Libya by April 2004. They said this would pave the way for a visit by U.S. President George Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair to Tripoli during the first half of next year."
Comment: Perhaps this article sheds some light on the strange geo-political events surrounding Libya in recent days. Perhaps, another oil rich country will soon supply oil to the US. We are moving from "interesting times" into the bizarre. Perhaps, oil priced in Euros is not quite a done deal. ??
Melting Pot (12/30/03; 12:32:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 114327)
Fed's Folly Will Come Due in 2004
http://www.thestreet.com/markets/detox/10134346.html
Led by the Federal Reserve, the world's central banks have spent five years pursuing some of the most reckless monetary policies ever seen in the developed world. Next year, though, their barmy bets will finally start to come undone.
The crackup won't start happening until the end of 2004 -- after George Bush, the market's favorite for president, has been safely re-elected -- but the coming deluge will usher in a period of global economic malaise and dire losses in financial markets.
The fast-declining dollar we see today is an early indicator of the reckoning that Fed Chairman Greenspan has long tried to forestall, using unsustainable measures. America will be the epicenter of the bust, because it is here that debt totals, as well as trade and fiscal deficits, have risen to historically delinquent levels.
More @ above link:
Great Albino Bat (12/30/03; 12:22:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 114326)
Let's look forward a bit...
Let us suppose the dollar continues its plunge further and the Euro rises in response, to say US$1.40/Euro.
Is the ECB going to be able to stand the heat and maintain unchanged policies?
Not bloody likely, in my opinion. European policies will be modified someway.
France and Germany scuttled the "Stability Pact" which they promised to uphold, which stated that they would not under any circumstances run fiscal deficits of more than 3% of GNP. The political going got rough, so - they folded.
No spinal cord in the ECB. At $1.40 to the Euro - maybe sooner - panic may take over. This is (more or less) Jim Turk's opinion. He writes a good newsletter and some extracts are available at goldmoney.com I think this view is possibly correct: "Increase Euro money supply to debase the Euro"
On the other hand, what if Europe sees this as suicidal - which it is.
What about various types of CONTROLS? Exchange controls, capital controls, taxes on incoming dollars? A revival of the concept of "autarky" (Self-sufficiency and isolation)?
The problems faced by Europe as a consequence of a continuing fall of the dollar, will soon take the limelight, in my opinion. What views do Belgian, Ari, CB2, Caradoc, Gresham, MK, BB and others hold on likely responses from Europe to the fall of the dollar against the Euro?
Thanks and I hope to read opinions on this very important upcoming event. Something is going to give - what's it going to be?
The GAB
Gandalf the White (12/30/03; 12:07:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 114325)
WOWSERS !! Another 8 am ----DIVE, DIVE, DIVE ---- command !
http://charts-d.quote.com:443/1002980432830?User=demo&Pswd=demo&DataType=GIF&Symbol=DX00Y&Interval=10&Ht=600&Wd=800&Display=2&Study=MA&Param1=13&Param2=0&Param3=&FontSize=10
That is not a pretty US$ chart !
GOLD must go UP !!!
<;-)
Goldilox (12/30/03; 11:58:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 114324)
holiday trading
@BB, DMR:
"Gold pushed higher on a much weaker U.S. dollar – again – as investors are running like the blazes."
Of course, the spin from CNBC is that "small" traders are having a field day until the Central Banks and gold mines return to the pits in January. I guess they're daring us to hold our positions after the New Year holiday.
G'lox
Black Blade (12/30/03; 11:53:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 114323)
GAB and Drywasher
Actually being prepared gives you a good jump ahead an beats no preparation at all. I'm not calling for Armgeddon here, just some prudent precautions.
It's like the old story of the two hunters being chased by a grizzly bear. One stops to change from his boots to his sneekers. The other says to him: "What are you doing? You are not going to outrun that bear?" Where upon the other hunter says: "No, I just have to out run you". ;-)
- Black Blade
Goldilox (12/30/03; 11:52:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 114322)
simile
@BB:
"Gold pushed higher on a much weaker U.S. dollar – again – as investors are running like the blazes."
My favorite variation on the fire theme is:
"Run like their hair's on fire!"
(:> G'lox
USAGOLD Daily Market Report (12/30/03; 11:46:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 114321)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has been updated.
If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.
Yep, I am still marooned in Utah. Hopefully the roads will be open by tomorrow and then to Idaho for a day. Just my luck the barracades will probably be down blocking the roads in Wyoming. Still, the price of gold and knowing that we are well prepared for come what may warms my heart anyway. Being prepared for danger and unforeseen natural and man made disasters is why we own precious metals - as insurance.
Jon H. Warner
Goldilox (12/30/03; 11:45:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 114320)
Dx drops to 86.99 immediately after gold close.
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0
OK, it wasn't the most difficult call I ever attempted, but I hit it right on.
Melting Pot (12/30/03; 11:44:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 114319)
@Twincaman
http://www.usatoday.com/money/indus...bay-cover_x.htm
The PM stock sector has risen hundreds of percent since the bull began and became oversold. A general correction in this sector was due to validate the current valuations.
Many of these stocks have moved from $1 to $2 a few years ago rising to their current $10 & $12+ per share valuations. Newbies entering this sector are shocked by the quick accelerating valuations, hence they are afraid and scared to invest into this sector at this time as this sector appears very very expensive when compared to 3 years ago.
This is normal bull market action, and should be expected. The PM sector will take a short rest and consolidate in this area before moving much much higher, again to validate and correct the recent price movements.
This consolidation period will soon end and with it the lower priced buying opportunity! Ebay has had a 70% increase in gold searches, it wont be long before J6P begins discovering the leverage that PM stocks offer resulting in an overwhelming display of "irrational exhuberance" in this very small cap sector.....
Good luck and good investing to ya!
NIA/DYODD
R Powell (12/30/03; 11:28:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 114318)
Tax liability reminder !!
Just a quick reminder for paper traders that must pay capital gains taxes on positions that will be marked-to-market, for a yearly number, as of market close tomorrow, that 12/31/03 is tomorrow! The standard advice is to take enough profit out of paper positions to cover the tax. The tax is figured on those year end marked-to-market numbers even if the market moves against you after tomorrow. There aren't too many things more frustrating than paying taxes on profits that disappeared in Jan. or Feb.
Now, I can hear Aristotle thinking, BUY THE REAL THING, and you'll never have to worry about paying taxes on any silly marked-to-market paper gains. Hey, who am I to disagree? I pay no tax to Ceasar on the increased fiat paper value of my physical coins.
Paper trading for fiat gains (hopefully)
The real deal for real reasons.
Two different animals?
Rich
Goldilox (12/30/03; 11:22:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 114317)
Dx chart
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0
Dx 86.x here we come. Probably after gold closes in NY.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (12/30/03; 11:18:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 114316)
Looking to take action? The gold price continues to march higher, waiting for no man. (Nor even for Eowyn)
http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html
:-)
R Powell (12/30/03; 11:11:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 114315)
Twincaman
Hello Twincaman, you asked...
"Can any of you gold experts explain why, despite gold's steady rise over the past several months, most precious metals funds took a significant dip recently?"
I'll give it a go. During the stock mania of the mid to late 1990s many mutual funds reported (advertised) huge percentage gains over a short period ot time, usually just the last year or two. After stock prices fell in 2000, 2001 and 2002 these same companies were still reporting gains (smaller but gains) but now over a much longer period of time so as to include the huge gains of the 1990s. These gains were now needed to offset the yearly loses of the recent years.
Whatever sector you may be interested in, I'm sure you can find SPECIFIC time frames to show gains and other time periods that show loses. The precious metals funds are no different although you'll have to work much harder to find a particular time frame to show a lose because precious metals stocks, along with the real metals, have been on fire to the upside for a few years now. Nothing moves without retractions and backfilling but both the XAU and the HUI have enjoyed tremendous percentage gains over the last few years. Both great bull and great bear markets also tend to be quite volatile at times so that retractions against the main trend can look violent during short time periods. It's the time frame adjustment that fund managers use to make themselves look prosperous. Liars figure and figures lie. Expand the time factors on your charts to get different results. Expanding the scale on the axis can also be done to show different shapes, fiqures like pennants or flags, intersecting lines and such to justify lots of different predictions. It's all part of the puzzle.
Just one man's opinion.
Silver at $6.00? Who da thunk it? (;>
Rich
Goldilox (12/30/03; 11:03:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 114314)
PM Funds
http://www.jsmineset.com
@twincaman
Most PM funds are heavily weighted in PM stocks, who have taken a "Barron's Breather" recently even as gold has been rising more slowly in the last month.
While gold has just risen comfortably over the last month, PM stocks have been more volatile, ramping and correcting in a more pronounced manner. Over the longer haul, they are still closely intertwined.
For some interesting insight into the correlation between them, check out Jim Sinclair regularly for his comments.
Great Albino Bat (12/30/03; 11:00:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 114313)
Thanks to all who have commented on my post early this morning!
I must apologize to Black Blade; I must be more careful in choosing words. I wrote: "Forget about preparation such as Black Blade is recommending."
That was a mistake!
Definitely, do take all the recommended precautions!
What I was trying to say, is that - that's not going to be enough. Water runs out. Batteries become exhausted. Even ammo runs out. Food stores will be consumed long before things begin to get better, count on it.
We have to think much about the social environment that is coming our way.
The GAB
Clink! (12/30/03; 10:50:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 114312)
Survival - OT
http://www.ananova.com/news/story/sm_850885.html
Try surviving this !
C!
MK (12/30/03; 10:25:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 114311)
News & Views
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.html
Updated.
Gold Gallops to 14-Year Highs
Today's headline with thanks to 'Gold Hill' (good find).
___________
You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.
This is the website where serious gold investors congregate and keep in touch with the market. Please bookmark this page.
DryWasher (12/30/03; 10:11:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 114310)
Some thoughts on survival....
Reference GAB (114300), Slingshot (114304), Remarx (114307)
Very thought provoking posts gentelmen. Please let me add a few thoughts on the subject, if I may.
First let me define what I mean by survival. To me survival means much more than just continuing to be alive. It means continuing to be able to live in a reasonably pleasant and secure manner and being able to contribute something useful to others. It most definitely includes some degree of economic security which is what this forum is really all about.
So where does the responsibility for our continued survival rest? Is it with each of us as individuals to look out for our selves? Is it with our families to look out for the family as a whole as well as for each family member? Is it for the community to look out for the interests of it's members? Is it the responsibility of each level of government to work to insure the survival of those individuals which it governs? Does the global community of nations have a responsibility to ensure the survival of all of the worlds individuals? Does each individual have a responsibility to work to help ensure the survival of all other individuals? To me it is absolutely clear that the answer to each and every one of these questions is a very firm YES.
When any of the above responsibilities are not lived up to the survival of each and everyone of us is put at risk. But what can the individual do about any of this? First we should each follow Sir Black Blade's advice, then we should become involved in working to make the needed changes required to make sure that ALL of the above responsibilities are fulfilled. But how? As Sir GAB wrote:
"Goldbugs must think of themselves as apostles of a better world, not as withdrawn individuals who wish to "clam up" within their shells. Start preaching the good word regarding gold, at once! To those who will listen, of course. We, the goldbugs, for the most part understand what has happened, and what must be done. This is an opportunity for leadership which cannot be turned down without the worst consequences. A leader is one who leads, because he can't do otherwise, and not because he particularly wants to lead.
Knowledge is power, and we goldbugs have the critically important knowledge. We must share this knowledge, not keep it to ourselves in the vain hope of surviving when all is going down."
Well said Sir GAB. I could not agree more.
DryWasher.
Twincaman (12/30/03; 09:53:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 114309)
Precious metals funds
Can any of you gold experts explain why, despite gold's steady rise over the past several months, most precious metals funds took a significant dip recently?
Gold Hill (12/30/03; 09:00:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 114308)
Joe Sixpack
In Monday's "USA Today" (money section),an article about eBay lists the top three search items. Number three is gold. "The kind you hide in a wall safe as a hedge against geopolitical or economic disaster."
Is Joe Sixpack waking up? The "barbelic relic" continues to shine.
Thank you CPM for the knowledge taken from this forum in 2003!! May your company thrive in 2004!!
Gold Hill
Remarx (12/30/03; 07:10:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 114307)
@GAB:Survival
http://www.museletter.com
Hear, hear, GAB! Community will be an essential factor of survival in the postcarbon era, both morally and pragmatically.
Richard Heinberg, in his last few "Museletters", has been addressing the need for building community "lifeboats". He is fully aware of peak oil and resource depletion issues that BB raises. Some of his newsletters are online at the link above, but he asks for a small annual subscription to see the full set. It is well worth it IMHO. His perspective may be a bit different than the essentially libertarian view dominant here in this forum, but he is not dogmatic. He is very concerned about furthering healthy, morally grounded community.
His writing is relevant to gold ownership since it helps provide an understanding of the geopolitical world strategy that affects the POG.
Here is the leading paragraph from a February's newsletter:
"With the dawn of the 21st century the world has entered a new stage of geopolitical struggle. The first half of the 20th century can be understood as one long war between Britain (and shifting allies) and Germany (and shifting allies) for European supremacy. The second half of the century was dominated by a Cold War between the US, which emerged as the world's foremost industrial-military power following World War II, and the Soviet Union and its bloc of protectorates. The US wars in Afghanistan (in 2001-2002) and Iraq (which, counting economic sanctions and periodic bombings, has continued from 1990 to the present) have ushered in the latest stage, which promises to be the final geopolitical struggle of the industrial period - a struggle for the control of Eurasia and its energy resources."
slingshot (12/30/03; 02:09:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 114306)
Goldilox Msg # 114291
" Kill them all and let God sort them out"
I can't remember if this is a slogan of the 82nd airborne or the 101st.
Welcome Home if you were "In Country"
Slingshot------------<>
slingshot (12/30/03; 01:27:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 114305)
(No Subject)
My apology to Sir Black Blade for misspelling.
Slingshot-------<>
slingshot (12/30/03; 01:13:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 114304)
Great Albino Bat
Msg. # 114300
I have copied your post and read it a few times to clarify my thoughts I wish to convey.
I find you a Good Soul and commend you for understanding of survival. Yet I wish to point out that the only one you can depend upon is yourself. In the event of any disaster the self preservation is the dominant force and unrational thinking prevails. Only after the initial shock that the need to bind together comes to MIND. This is important and the time laspse between the intial shock and the need to bind together can be a dangerous time.
Do not make the recommendations of Sir Blake Blade trivial.
Preparation and training has saved my life. Fire aboard ship is a paramount experience. You have nowhere to go but fight the fire.
Asked those aboard Forrestal and Enterprise. My experience was trivial to theirs, but no less frightening.
And the need to survive by yourself is important!, for it may be that the only one to save you is yourself.
You can bet the lessons of Gold is prudent here.
Slingshot----------------<>
Great Albino Bat (12/30/03; 01:11:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 114303)
Hello Toomas!
You are at the wrong forum, Sir!
No advertising is allowed here, sorry to inform you.
The GAB
Great Albino Bat (12/30/03; 00:28:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 114300)
Some thoughts on survival....
These are thoughts passing through the mind of the GAB.
May be of interest, perhaps not. For what they are worth:
Survival will not be possible with preparations for exclusively personal survival, in the final breakdown of the dollar and the radically new conditions to be faced, especially by US residents. Forget about preparations such as Black Blade is recommending, in all good faith. They are good, but not enough!
Survival will only be possible as members of a strong group.
Therefore, it behooves those who understand what is happening, to present their views as clearly as possible, to their closest friends. Slowly and prudently, break the news to them, not by making them feel small and foolish, but by making them understand events and the facts regarding real money. As events unfold, those who do this will naturally tend to become the leaders of their groups.
Church groups come to mind. As economic devastation takes its toll, the warnings made previously will begin to make sense. You won't find survival possible, outside of a close group. Together, perhaps it will be possible.
Goldbugs must think of themselves as apostles of a better world, not as withdrawn individuals who wish to "clam up" within their shells. Start preaching the good word regarding gold, at once! To those who will listen, of course. We, the goldbugs, for the most part understand what has happened, and what must be done. This is an opportunity for leadership which cannot be turned down without the worst consequences. A leader is one who leads, because he can't do otherwise, and not because he particularly wants to lead.
Knowledge is power, and we goldbugs have the critically important knowledge. We must share this knowledge, not keep it to ourselves in the vain hope of surviving when all is going down.
The revered bankers will listen humbly, when the goldbugs speak out, for they will know we are right.
We must all form our groups, and do our best to help the members of the group survive along with us. By ourselves, we will not survive. Americans are great at teamwork, it is their specialty, and the world ahead will demand teamwork.
I might add that, knowingly or not, the enemies of gold are the enemies of humanity. And as Ben Franklin once said:
"Gentlemen, we must all hang together, or we shall surely hang one by one."
Such is the guano from the GAB.
slingshot (12/30/03; 00:25:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 114299)
Midas Crusade
The next day Gandalf and Cougar were up with the rising of the sun. Again they moved along the river to find a crossing. As they searched, their hopes diminished for the banks of the Epis become too steep for the wagons and their weight. Another night in the woods, farther away,Gandalf thought. Time, measured by distance, now became a problem.
Cougar could see Gandalfs unrest. We will find a crossing, said Cougar as he watch Gandalf puff on his long pipe and blow smoke rings that passed threw each other as they rose.
And we will, replied Gandalf. Both drew close to the fire as the night become cold.
Then came the sound of a horse's exhale and the breaking of the surrounding brush. Cougar had taken hold of his axe and awaited the appearance of the unknown.
From outside the light of the fire a voice came forth.
Hail travelers. Would you allow me the warmth of your fire for the night becomes cold. A womens voice. Gandalf stood up.
Leona? said Gandalf. It is I,and she come into the light of the fire.
You know her? asked Cougar as he slid his axe back into his sheath.
I do indeed! said Gandalf. Welcome,warm yourself by the fire. It is good to see you, said Gandalf.
She dismounted and the three sat down around the fire.
What brings you here to us? asked Gandalf.
I have dreamed you search for something and I was compeled to come and help you. What do you search for? asked Leona.
Somewhat surprized Gandalf spoke. A crossing of the Epis.
A safe crossing for a large army. Is it possible?
It is! and the crossing is not far from here, but you have to be able to recognize it, she said.
I will show it to you when the sun is at its zenith or you will not find it, she said.
Relieved at this information, Gandalf reached forth and took hold of Leona's hand.
I have lived many a mans life and when all seems dismal and dark, I have been shown a guiding light. And you Leona are one of them. The Old Wizard, had a shining smile upon his face and Leona blushed.
The next day they moved along the Epis and came to a break in the banks. A road, long forgotten and over grown, eased its way down to the river. Two large boulders with a space between them large enough for a wagon to pass between rested in the water. On the opposite shore, two other boulders could be seen at equal distance.
It was early morning and they waited for the sun to rise high.
As the sun rose in the mid day sky the crossing appeared from beneath the silt laiden waters. The crossing was of light colored stone and the sunlight reflected through the shallow water.
But the path was not straight! It was slightly serpentine and the water was dark and its depth unknown.
A TRAP!, to those believing it was straight across as marked by the boulders on opposite shores.
Who made this crossing was lost in history, but it was made in the bend of the river to slow the current. And the depth of the water allowed a safe crossing of wagons, horses and man.
How far to the road? asked Gandalf.
It is not far, only the underbrush hides its entrance, answered Leona.
I ride back to Hammerton! You and Leona mark a trail to the crossing, said Gandalf to Cougar.
Before Gandalf rode off he come to the side of Leona. You have done well, he said.
Gandalf nudged the sides of Shadowfax and they rode off, retracing the path from which they came.
As Gandalf rode, he spoke these words outloud. "Remarkable woman".
The Dark Forces rode hard to reach Hammerton, but they had to rest. Their long journey forced them to take more time to recouperate for their horses were tired and the garrison lagged behind.
Therroth, clenched his fists at the thought of delay.
Slingshot-------------------------<>
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