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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/30/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

silvester (08/30/02; 21:45:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 84053)
@ Darkhorse

I'm with you Darkhorse. Let's hear some fresh news from the people. All these bank stories just running together.

Real stuff straight from the homelands. Thats what we need.

a nation of one (08/30/02; 21:40:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 84052)
to darkhorse
Gotta go to bed now. Joints are starting to creak.

darkhorse (08/30/02; 21:22:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 84051)
@ a nation of one
Grass roots information, I love it! This is EXACTLY the kind of info needed, but unable to find except places like here. I really don't give a rats hind end about most info reporters dig up; what you've related is invaluable because it's reality! Ladies and gentlemen of the round table, if you don't see that this is the kind of information needed (from EVERYbody in their own locales) more than that of the paid press, I'd be more than willing to provide the funds for the next contest! To me, what's happening to the "guy on the street" is 10 times better than the latest national news from whomever is the hottest reporter/site at the moment. Anybody with a difference of opinion?

a nation of one (08/30/02; 20:57:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 84050)
my rider
to darkhorse
This morning a friend of my neighbor asked me to give him a lift. Usually I would refuse. But this time I was game. There was an indefinite factor which threatened yet peaked my interest. We talked a bit. It turned out that he works for a mortgage bank. On the way to his home odd things happened. When we got there, an African American, who was carrying a pistol, was going to shoot him for stealing twenty dollars from him. Texas. I defused the situation, told him to give the guy twenty dollars, which he did, and I
left in peace. Won't give him a lift again. He had said that he knew some things about the state of the economy but didn't want to depress me. So I told him some. He stayed silent. The house next door to mine has been for sale for more than a month. Only two people have looked at it. In a fast-selling neighborhood. Not overpriced. No other houses for sale around here. There is no noise at night now. Until recently there was always plenty, even in the small hours of the morning during the week. On a nearby big street, there is light traffic after eight o'clock. Previously you could hear the cars drive by all night, packed and thick. Of five large malls I take my walks in, only two are not failing. One grocery store (of ten) close by is selling at extremely distressed prices. Unusually good prices are available at seven of the others. In Central Texas grocery prices in some cases are fifty percent below these. Normally the difference is only a few cents. I know a ninety two year old woman who tells me that she thinks something awful is going to happen. She has all her money in bonds and CDs. Sold her stocks in September of 2000. Got out at the peak. My broker doesn't have a clue to anything. Won't say anything negative unless it soothes his pocket. Everybody's feet are still dancing, but their mouths are closed. And their eyes dart here and there. They say nothing, but their fingers are gripping their wallets. Is this verified enough?

TownCrier (08/30/02; 20:35:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 84049)
"...can you not follow in the footsteps of giants?"
http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER1.html
It's time you rediscover an old friend.

a nation of one (08/30/02; 20:30:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 84048)
(No Subject)
In wanting to find out what is true, a man comes to a useful reality; in subordinating his mind to fulfilling his desires, he loses sight of what is real. Most brokers are salesmen. Extremely few merely broker. If more were to do so, markets would be more reliably prosperous than they are. And a national economy based on such principle, if its enemies were prevented from disenabling it, would be healtheir and would be more likely to endure.

Manipulation plays a destructive role in markets. The intentions are perhaps well, but the outcomes are not.

darkhorse (08/30/02; 20:18:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 84047)
a serious shortage at hand...
I find myself mimicking Johnny No. 5 in the movie "Short Circuit"...I need INPUT! Serious, verified INPUT! I thirst for knowledge, but it seems the summer doldrums aren't limited to the financial markets. This is the wealth of today...without it, we're nothing more than fodder for those that have it!

darkhorse (08/30/02; 19:45:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 84046)
@ a nation of one
what you're talking about is commonly referred to as knowledge and wisdom; either of these alone would make for prosperous times for the one, but both of them together (in the case of a person like your friend) would make for prosperous times for many, if shared! If either/both of these are neglected/ignored, the only thing to be expected is a very temporary personal gain, followed by a longer period of personal PAIN! Your friend should be seeking wise(r) counsel these days (my favorite best seller provides nothing less), but I wouldn't be surprised to find there's nothing more than hostile arrogance.

a nation of one (08/30/02; 18:38:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 84045)
(No Subject)
One reason the investing public can be taken advantage of to the extent that they can is the low esteem in which knowledge of truth is held. A friend said recently that denial works wonders, and he knowingly uses denial to an abnormal extent and often in highly polished ways. But he fails to see that because of this his views of himself and of reality are not dependable, cannot be relied on, and make him unable to predict normally predictable future events. I see clearly how it throws him into trouble, but I can't tell him that; he has a repertory of a million denials and is a virtuoso in making use of them. Stock hucksters commonly expend more time and effort in being able to sell stocks than in being able to understand the dynamics of the world the way it is. These also thereby cultivate in themselves a habit consisting of reliably failing to know reality and to predict oncoming events. Truth has a place. And that place is in our daily lives, not relegated to a shelf only to be taken down for special purposes, but as a tool ever present in our minds and hands. There may be a great appeal in being able to swindle great sums from ignorant masses, but happiness has more to do with knowing what to want, than with getting what you want. For one thing, if more people in our society were to develop a taste for being able to know and understand what a particular truth is, as it relates to their personal interests, markets would function less erratically, more healthfully, and more predictably. Of course this would mean that bubbles would tend not to come into existence. And right now gold would be higher than it is.

R Powell (08/30/02; 17:33:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 84044)
Sierra
Ruby and the Romantics

Sierra Madre (08/30/02; 15:36:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 84043)
Sector: I think you are quite right about gold...
"The cabal knows that it has a mighty fight just to hold $313 so why try to get it back to $300. But more and more speculative sharks are swimming the golden waters these days."

Some months ago I pointed out that this war against gold is rather like trench warfare. The first trench to hold was $270; then the cabal had to fall back to $290. (Remember the Deutsche Bank dictum: "Gold will not rise above $290?") Then they were overrun and the gold forces were taking out $330, but, the cabal rallied and threw their whole weight (of gold) against the gold forces and beat them back, to a hair under $300 (briefly). Now we are back, and have taken the $313 trench again.

Funny thing is, I rather like this war because every time we are "beaten", we have a chance to pick up cheap gold! That's a pleasant war! I'd sure hate to be on the other side.

Important, IMO, is that THE MOOD HAS CHANGED. How many gold bugs are getting laughed at they days? I don't know of any polls, but I can sense we are getting a lot more respect these days. That spells the end for the gold cabal.

Do I recall a song: "Our day will come!"?

Sierra

Blackjack (08/30/02; 15:03:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 84042)
Gold starting to shine in China?
http://library.northernlight.com/FC20020830240000042.html?cb=242&dx=1006&sc=0#doc
SHANGHAI, Aug 30, 2002 (AsiaPort via COMTEX) -- Hing Fund Group, one of the biggest gold processing and sales enterprises in Hong Kong, announced its plan to enter into mainland market in Shanghai on August 26.

Chen Fazhu, chairman of Hing Fung Group told reporter, Hing Fung Group has sign cooperation agreement with Hualian Group, one of the biggest commercial group in China. It plans to open 100 gold and jewelry chain stores in China within 2 years and to open 300 subsidiaries in middle-small cities afterwards.

According to international experience, the reasonable gold store distribution should be one store for every 7000 persons.According to this, China's existing number of about 8000 goldstores is far from market need.

Chen Fazhu revealed, Hing Fung Group will focus on goldprocessing, wholesale, and retailing in China mainland, which isdifferent from its role in Hong Kong as a provider of raw material.

sector (08/30/02; 14:55:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 84041)
Oil Finished Pretty Much at $29
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/chart.cgi?s=NYMEX_CLV2&v=i&w=15&t=f&a=1
Not the sort of thing that the Fed and Administration wants to see, especially after a week's worth of Saudi "We will take up the OPEC crude production slack" jawboning.

Moreover, the SPR is basically full and available to hammer the crude price...but the big boys didn't do it today. Therefore, they are satisfied with $29 oil, for today.

This suggests that they expect much higher oil in the ME war likely future that will THEN require SPR sales to "Manage" the oil price back down to $30-ish per bbl.

Perhaps this is also why pog is still at $313 too? The cabal knows that it has a mighty fight just to hold $313 so why try to get it back to $300. But more and more speculative sharks are swimming the golden waters these days.

At some juncture this Fall the cabal may finally come to the appalling realization that their numerous financial market rigs have become intractable...that further resistance to the forces of the free market is...futile.

At that seismic moment in American history, nothing that follows will resemble anything that came before.


Blackjack (08/30/02; 14:35:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 84040)
CRB Index is rocketing higher
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_CRY0&v=d12
The CRB Index is on a tear. This shows there MUST be some
inflation in the pipeline with regards to commodities.
A recent article indicated that South Korea is considering
interest rate hikes because inflation jumped due to crop
failures. Worldwide drought will put pressure on food prices.
War tensions keeping oil high despite weak demand.

A rising CRB Index should be a strong support for PMs.

Waverider (08/30/02; 14:35:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 84039)
New figures add to Japan's economic gloom
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1028186143084&p=1012571727313
Snip:
"The Japanese economy contracted marginally in the first quarter, instead of growing strongly as originally claimed, extending Japan's worst post-war recession to four straight quarters, according to revised figures released on Friday.
Although growth resumed at 0.5 per cent in the second quarter, the rise was due almost entirely to exports, with capital spending, housing starts and government investment all down. "This shows a new depth of ugliness in the recession," said Richard Jerram, chief economist at ING, who said the figures "made the total dependence on exports very stark".

Waverider: Hmmm...a "new depth of ugliness in the recession" makes Gold all the more beautiful!

Black Blade (08/30/02; 14:11:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 84038)
Unhappy Campers On CNBC

The stock market indices were lower today to finish the month in negative territory. CNBC floor reporter Bob Pisani was visibly uptight as he announced that the DOW finished lower for the month as the DOW went negative for the fifth straight month. The DOW has not had five straight months of negative returns since 1981 when the US was caught up in a crushing recession. Today trading was voltile on extremely light trading as players left the casino early for a long weekend to reflect on their futures (that's Tuesday for these people). Pisani came back on the air to announce that trading volume was the second lightest of the year. It may be interesting that some large investment banks were largely absent today.

- Black Blade

R Powell (08/30/02; 13:47:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 84037)
Sierra Madre
Are you really going to spend the whole $45 billion on gold? Mexico produces a great deal of silver and, I would suggest, that a small allocation of about $2 billion spent on silver might greatly increase the profitability of the Mexican silver industry. By the way, that $2 billion should buy all the presently available silver on the planet. All, that is, if you can entice Buffett into selling his Berkshire Hathaway stash. I've figured in a 10% rise in price as I believe it may be hard to buy it all without raising the price a little.
Two billion buys it all. What a deal!
Rich

R Powell (08/30/02; 13:21:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 84036)
Naughty traders
While the cat is away, the mice will play. And, in the last half hour of a shortened, last trading day of the week before a long, holiday weekend the floor traders played (or somebody did) pulling POG down about a dollar and POS down 6 cents.
I would guess that many had already closed their books and snuck out the side door or never returned after the morning coffee break. Anyway, now notice day for the Sept. contract has passed as has the end of the month account rearranging (window dressing). The light summer trading volume and summer vacations should all fade away shortly into memories. Next week is September, with kids back to school and financial markets hopefully back to full time work. Maybe September and October will tell us whether gold and silver are going to excite us this year or not. I hope we get better results than the Boston baseball team provided this summer. Strike or no, their season is about over.
Happy holiday weekend
Rich

pinetree (08/30/02; 12:54:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 84035)
Blackjack...vanguard
Thanks Blackjack...Your opinion concerning vanguard's policy on fund 53(gold) has merit.

TownCrier (08/30/02; 12:12:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 84034)
Fed Chairmain Greenspan's speech in its entirety
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20020830/default.htm

...we indicated in congressional testimony in July 1999, "... productivity acceleration does not ensure that equity prices are not overextended. There can be little doubt that if the nation's productivity growth has stepped up, the level of profits and their future potential would be elevated. That prospect has supported higher stock prices. The danger is that in these circumstances, an unwarranted, perhaps euphoric, extension of recent developments can drive equity prices to levels that are unsupportable even if risks in the future become relatively small. Such straying above fundamentals could create problems for our economy when the inevitable adjustment occurs."

...The consequent reversal in stock prices that has occurred over the past couple of years has been particularly pronounced in the high-tech sectors of the economy. The investment boom in the late 1990s, initially spurred by significant advances in information technology, ultimately produced an overhang of installed capacity. Even though demand for a number of high-tech products was doubling or tripling annually, in many cases new supply was coming on even faster. ... Returns on the securities of high-tech firms ultimately collapsed, as did capital investment.

...The struggle to understand developments in the economy and financial markets since the mid-1990s has been particularly challenging for monetary policymakers. We were confronted with forces that none of us had personally experienced. Aside from the then recent experience of Japan, only history books and musty archives gave us clues to the appropriate stance for policy.

...we noted in the previously cited mid-1999 congressional testimony the need to focus on policies "to mitigate the fallout when it occurs and, hopefully, ease the transition to the next expansion."

---(see url for full speech)---

The "great lubricant" (or economic "balm") is always the creation and application of more and more money to the problem areas. Hence the need to gold as a meaningful wealth (purchasing power) preserver.

R.

sector (08/30/02; 11:59:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 84033)
SEC gets tough with NYSE-listed foreign firms
Masashi Amano Yomiuri Shimbun Correspondent
WASHINGTON--The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's decision to require not only domestic corporations but also foreign firms listed on the U.S. stock exchange to submit written oaths on the authenticity of their accounting reports reflects its desire to show that the United States is firmly determined to prevent another case of book-keeping fraud.

By doing so, the SEC is seeking to bolster investor confidence in a market tainted by a series of accounting scandals.

European corporations, however, have reacted angrily to the U.S. move, saying that it would discourage foreign firms from listing themselves on the U.S. market, which they say would not serve U.S. interests. The Federation of German Industries, a leading business organization, sent a note of protest to the U.S. watchdog body.

However, the SEC has turned a deaf ear to such objections. Its latest decision also requires U.S. corporations to file their annual financial statements 60 days after the end of the financial year, rather than within the previous 90-day limit.

In addition, it requires U.S. corporate executives to report their transactions involving stocks issued by their firms two days after the trades are completed, rather than within the previous 40-day limit.

These measures reflect the SEC's determination to dispel market distrust in corporate accounting, by making it extremely difficult for corporate executives to falsify book-keeping records or sell stocks issued by their companies.

An SEC official said that if foreign companies are exempted from the requirements and no appropriate measures are taken to check questionable in-house share transactions by corporate officials, the stock market may suffer in the future.

In fact, when the initial round of company oaths were filed by the Aug. 14 deadline, the SEC came under criticism from market analysts for being too soft on foreign companies.

"The lack of confidence in the market still remains (if results certifications are restricted solely to U.S. firms)," an analyst said.

Some Japanese firms have recently begun to agree with the SEC's strict attitude, on the basis that if they continue to oppose the move, investigators may suspect the firms of operating outside the law.

The trend has encouraged commission officers to mandate the compliance of foreign firms with standards identical to those applied to U.S. firms, which are considered some of the strictest business regulation standards in the world.

===

Japanese compliance no problem


Japanese companies currently listed on the New York Stock Exchange will be pressed to comply with the new SEC rules if they wish to operate in the United States according to analysts.

Many company representatives agree with this view.

"We have always reported our financial statements justly and accurately. Following the new SEC decision is just something we would have to do in addition to what we have always been doing," a Sony official said.

"The SEC can inspect our annual report according to the new rules," an official of Nomura Holdings, Inc., said

While companies have shown readiness to comply, Japanese firms listed in New York had not yet been officially informed of the new requirement as of Wednesday.

As companies rush to gather information on details such as the deadline for submission of documents, there has been some confusion. One Honda official said: "We don't know when we have to submit the documents. We haven't yet been officially informed by the SEC."
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Foreign companies getting peeved.

Operative (08/30/02; 11:54:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 84032)
A Few Thoughts
Another interesting week nearly behind us all.
* Gold has fought bravely once again and going into the next few months with promise.
* Millions of pages of new documents will be brought to light as the court rules in regards to the Enron debacle. The dark secrets of the banksters/manipulators are beginning to be laid out for the world to see. My guess is hundreds will forego the pleasures of a long weekend in order to run the shredders non stop.
* August was a month many investors had seen enough and began pulling our of the stocks. September should see a follow up on this no vote of confidence.
* Greenspan begins damage control by pleading a mea culpa and attempting to steer history writers that "there was nothing I could do...." I think his speech today will be the opening chapter of his "retirement book deal".
* The dow struggles this afternoon to close above 8737 in order to avoid the stigma of 5 consecutive months of being down. Something that last happened 20 years ago in 1981. In any event, the great recovery touted by bubblevision is nowhere in sight.
* Commodities continue upward trends. (What inflation?)
I wanted to add to the supplies at the farm this week and filled a pick up truck at Sam's Wharehouse. Get ready folks for some sticker price shocks on groceries. Most of the basics were up 20% or better since I last did my topping off about 4 months ago.

A drive by of the old courthouse and seeing the "old timers" still sitting around discussing politics and the like reminded me to say Thank You to our host for providing a modern equivilant of the "town square". To the knights and ladies of this forum, let it be known each is appreciated and your thoughts used as springboards for my continuing education.

Assuming one lives to see 70 years, take 70 subtract your current age and mulitply by 52. Thats how many weekends you have left to make the most of, on that note I wish each of you a Golden Weekend. (Looking out my window I see some of the leaves are turning a golden yellow. Was a good summer. I think it shall be an even better fall season.)

Enjoy the long weekend!

sector (08/30/02; 11:48:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 84031)
Oil Trading over $29
The buyers of crude are telling us something...
...about the ME instability.

Gold seems to be staying up as well.

Virtually ALL the stock pundits see a DOW slip next week.

Can the cabal force gold down too nexrt week?

The best "Entertainment" there is...

...IF one has small boxes periodically delivered to your door that seem, to the delivery person, to be...well... "Heavy for their size".

TownCrier (08/30/02; 11:20:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 84029)
Greenspan's comments -- always expect good, frank talk at Jackson, WY
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk,&s2=ad_right1_topfin&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APW_F6hX7R3JlZW5z
(Thanks for the Bloomberg article, CoBra(too). Among the many reports available on this item, this is a particularly good one.)

Excerpt:
---
After studying history and their options, Fed officials opted not to try to manage stock prices. Greenspan said he told Congress in 1999 that central bankers would instead focus on policies ``to mitigate the fallout when it occurs and, hopefully, ease the transition to the next expansion.''
---

Bottom line translation: An inflation tour de force!

R.

sector (08/30/02; 11:19:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 84028)
Record 22,910 homes actually available; July report understated mark by 56%
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drmn/real_estate/article/0,1299,DRMN_414_1354844,00.html
'For sale' signs not adding up

By John Rebchook, Rocky Mountain News
August 29, 2002

If you think there are a lot more homes for sale in your neighborhood than reported, you're probably right.

A record 22,910 unsold single-family homes and townhomes are on the market this month. A computer glitch discovered this week revealed a whopping 56 percent discrepancy from the 14,717 unsold homes reported in July.

Because the glut of unsold homes is so much greater than previously believed, it could force sellers to lower the asking price of their homes. Combined with some of the lowest mortgage rates in nearly 40 years, falling prices on a huge inventory of unsold homes could make this an ideal time to buy.

"It is, if you have a stable income," said Byron Koste, head of the University of Colorado Real Estate Center at the Leeds School of Business. "If you don't, you're playing Russian roulette."

In July, 20,005 unsold homes and townhomes were actually on the market, according to a calculation by a veteran real estate agent, Norm Waugh.

A computer glitch at Metrolist Inc. - a real estate information service group owned by the six local boards of Realtors - has been undercounting the number of unsold homes on the Denver-area market since June 2000.

The summer of 2000 is when Metrolist introduced a Web-based system called MyMLS.com, which allowed agents to list their houses on the Internet.

As the Internet became more common, more and more agents started using it, instead of the older, more cumbersome dial-up phone system. But computer software failed to make a "statistical calculation" that included the MyMLS.com figures in the unsold homes on the market, an official at Metrolist confirmed.

The number of unsold homes is far greater than at any other time in Denver history, even when thousands of foreclosed homes bloated the market in the late '80s and early '90s, said Jerry McGuire, an agent with RE/MAX Professionals, who along with son Steve uncovered the error this week.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The Federal Reserve and BES have some company in their shuffling shell game, bogus GDP restatements. It seems that the grass-roots world of real estate sales mopes have figured it out too! It was a computer glitch...yeah...right.

My, My, My! It's already worse than the 80's real estate glut in Denver.

Picture the ghost towns of the old west…or Cape Canaveral in the 70's, that's Denver in the near future.



CoBra(too) (08/30/02; 10:47:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 84027)
Not sure if it works - ....
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk,&s2=ad_right1_topfin&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APW_F6hX7R3JlZW5z
Though AG says FED Policy can't stop SM Bubbles - ...

Pretty sure Sir Allan didn't respond to my latest rant - he'd need another day as he's spent his repo for today - anyway ...

Not fo' u cb2 ...

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (08/30/02; 10:37:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 84026)
Real gold, real easy. Delivered to your door.
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/pre1933.html

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