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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 7/30/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Golden Bear (07/30/02; 23:13:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 81920)
Fallen idol...(not mine!)
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_PrintFriendly&c=Article&cid=1026143578795
Snippit:

"...WHEN THE "greatest central banker who ever lived" coins a sound bite, count on the world to sit up and take notice. It's tough to understand this phenomenon, given that Alan Greenspan was one of the pied pipers of the New Economy, whose collapse has wiped out several trillion dollars in shareholder value. But there he was last week, accepting a hero's welcome from U.S. senators and congressmen who still revere him as a genius. And never mind that the booming economy of the 1990s, presided over by the longest-serving chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, is fast fading into memory..."

GB: When so-called heroes begin to be discredited, the end is not too far away...

YGM (07/30/02; 22:39:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 81919)
CATS....OK?
So should we short them or go long?
Or maybe we should corner the antacid market....Ugggh! Now Gophers are tasty critters and all you need is a piece of string or a snare wire then a stick and a fire....Now I know I've lost it....Gonna take a week off & go back up in the hills and listen to mother nature.....YGM

soooo... "GO GOLD & GO GATA" keep the Castle tower manned Oh Wizardous one...

YGM (07/30/02; 22:30:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 81918)
Trapper....
That's quite a line you invented.....Worth repeating.....& remembering.....
Quote...."Too many people who want to pratice charity with wealth which they did not produce"....sounds like the socialist state and Canadian Politics....Good one...YGM

Golden Bear (07/30/02; 22:26:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 81917)
Consumers have hit the wall...
www.investech.com
"...Consumer (Un)Confidence

Are we on a "Confidence" collision course? The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence release today does not bode well for Greenspan & Company. With a 9+ point drop in the Consumer Confidence Index (top graph) and an even larger drop in Future Expectations (11+ points) the question of the hour is, of course... Has the fed lost control? Future Expectations Minus Present Situation (bottom graph) turned lower which has, in the past, been a leading indicator of a recession. The unstable Consumer Confidence levels signals heavy repercussions for the Fed and their inability to soften the blow of the popped bubble...."

Gandalf the White (07/30/02; 21:18:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 81916)
The Hobbits missed the BID by that much <->
===========================================================
NEWS IN NUMISMATICS
===========================================================
-- 1933 $20 St. Gaudens Sets New World-Record
Price of $7,590,000! --
===
<;-)

Trapper (07/30/02; 21:16:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 81915)
Jayzee
I lived in Atlanta GA for about 9 yrs, just moved back to Michigan. Too much big city and the heat was hard on a fat yankee. I say the article posted by Misetich on the Tenn. income tax. I listened to Neal Boortz expound on that last one it was great. To hear this guy in the article it seems he likes taxes, most progressives ( socialist/ communists )do. What he didn't say is the tenn goverment has tried several times and even at midnight once to get this tax passed. Hold the line for all us freedom loving people. It is hard to keep them at bay living as we do in post constitutional America. Too many people who want to pratice charity with wealth which they did not produce. Tenn-care should demonstrate to all the nation what is going to happen with the new medicare drug plan. Problem is we already have our 5% income tax. Live small.

Black Blade (07/30/02; 20:32:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 81914)
Brazil Currency, Bonds Fall as Government Seeks New IMF Aid
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APUax.hR4QnJhemls

Snippit:

Rio de Janeiro, July 30 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's currency plummeted and bonds fell for a seventh day on concern the government is running out of options to avoid defaulting on 1 trillion reais ($305 billion) of debt. Concern about default is now so high that the government today said its sale today of 1.2 billion reais of floating-rate bonds used to roll over existing debt will mature in just five to seven weeks. In October, the government was able to lure investors into buying bonds due in five years.

Black Blade: Another domino is set to fall. They are spinning the tread mill faster and faster.

Pizz (07/30/02; 20:30:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 81913)
Musings
Going to be a long cold winter. While the government tells us we're still expanding at a 3% or so clip, I don't think they're too far off base, but where the problem is right now is gross profit and cash flow. The expenses and debt service are fixed, but the profits are way down. Most leveraged corporations ( and that's a lot) are right on the edge and won't survive the winter. I've got my headhunter looking for a position more in the sticks and out of the metro area. We're so bad right now I'll probably be on the bone pile in 90 days. Without cash flow and beans to count, I'll be downsized.

My feelings are that the national economy is going to implode rather drastically for four or five months real soon. It will be something like we've never seen before. Small business is holding on by their teeth. That's why they've rushed the BK bill through, with, as I've seen posted a couple times, a netting provision for derivitives so the the BK court can't come in and clean out just the above water off - sets. Something I think history might name as the JPM provision????

Cavan Man: I'll take a Leap (put) on all of South America

Mr. Gresham:

My .02?? My Sicilian heritage was watered down by a quarter Scotch (and not the booze - at least tonite - yet - but that does sound good) a quarter Irish, and a quarter German. Makes for a real mellow temperment - right? (Course you've read a few of my rants. . . .)

Now, with regards to current corporate crooks, most aren't smart enough to carry a good Sicilian's pasta pail. . .

YGM - Haven't had time to post anything more than a couple market thoughts during the day - the economic realities of our current "recovery" are taking up the best part of my time.

Darn, out of Scotch, and the wife's cooking dinner - darn cat eats better than I do, but that's OK, she didn't read Sierra's post.

Pizz

Cavan Man (07/30/02; 20:28:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 81912)
If there's any truth to FOA.......
......might the gold/oil hand be forced into action?

July 31, 2002

Anti-euro mood hardens among Britons
By Lea Paterson and Gary Duncan

PUBLIC support for UK membership of the euro is ebbing even though more than a third of the population has now used the new European notes and coins.
A poll for Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) revealed that opposition to the single currency has risen sharply in Britain, dealing a blow to pro-euro campaigners who had hoped that familiarity with the new notes and coins would fuel enthusiasm for UK entry.

The survey of 1,000 adults, conducted for CSFB by Martin Hamblin GfK, showed that just 35 per cent now believed the UK should join the euro in the next two to three years. This was down from 42 per cent in January. The proportion opposed to entry rose from 46 per cent at the start of the year to 55 per cent, according to the poll conducted earlier this month.

The hardening attitude comes despite the fact that 35 per cent of the population have now used the new currency. Robert Barrie, chief UK economist at CSFB, said: "A further increase in (euro) use over the summer might be associated with an increase in support, but that's not been the pattern so far."

The poll comes against a backdrop of increasing antieuro sentiment on the Continent. Anger at euro-related price rises have caused resentment in Germany, where surveys suggest that more than half of the population want to switch back to the mark.

Pro-euro campaigners, however, maintained that greater exposure to the euro would change UK attitudes. Simon Buckby, campaign director of Britain in Europe, said: "When people go to the eurozone they can see that anti-European scares simply aren't true."

Black Blade (07/30/02; 20:21:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 81911)
Vanguard Air Plans Bankruptcy as Loan Is Rejected
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APUa0CBSaVmFuZ3Vh

Snippit:

Washington, July 30 (Bloomberg) -- Vanguard Airlines Inc., a discount carrier that never made an annual profit in six years as a public company, plans to seek bankruptcy protection after the government rejected its request for a loan guarantee.

Black Blade: And another one bites the dust. No recovery to be seen here.

Black Blade (07/30/02; 20:16:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 81910)
Junk Bond Defaults at Record - Moody's
http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=businessnews&StoryID=1263898

Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Eighty-nine companies defaulted on $64 billion of bonds in the first half of this year, including a record $42.6 billion in the second quarter, Moody's Investors Service said on Monday. The dismal second quarter led Moody's to revise its projected year-end 12-month junk bond default rate to 8.8 percent from 7 percent, largely because of defaults by telecommunications and non-U.S. companies. The rate in June held near 10.3 percent for a fourth straight month, after peaking at 10.7 percent in January. David Hamilton, Moody's director of default research, said it is not yet clear whether companies face a full-blown credit crunch. "It's a good question, one I've been asking myself," he said. "Access to risky credits is increasingly shutting down. I don't think we're in a credit crunch quite yet, but the makings of one are there."

Black Blade: And this is only the tip o' the iceberg. The pace will accelerate as standards are tightened and lenders become more concerned about recouping from investments and investors become more skittish in this uncertain economy. Just another nail in the coffin.

Black Blade (07/30/02; 20:09:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 81909)
Banking crisis grips Uruguay
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2162050.stm

Snippit:

The peso's value is falling and the economy shrinking. Uruguay has closed all of its banks, as the country's economic crisis tightens its stranglehold. The Central Bank announced that it had suspended all banking operations, in an eerie echo of similar moves that took place in neighbouring Argentina.

Black Blade: Yep, and I got some of their Gold 1930 Uruguayan pesos too. Thanks USAGOLD. Paraguay is already a mess, however, Brazil is on the brink as I outlined quite some time ago, while Venezuela and Colombia are on the verge of similar problems. So far Chile and Bolivia have been fairly stable. Mexico did make some rumblings that these problems could affect their economy as a result. The dominoes could soon fall. The smart ones will find some Gold and Silver for protection.

Black Blade (07/30/02; 20:01:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 81908)
Bernie Schaeffer: Gold Still Precious in My Book
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/sentiment/observations.asp?ID=5864

Snippit:

I turned bullish on gold on December 18, 2001 and my opinion has not changed in the wake of the recent pullback in gold and the even sharper decline in gold shares. From a fundamental perspective, I believe the case for gold remains sound. In fact, my assessment is that the financial markets do not currently assign sufficient weight to the possibility of major negative developments such as a dollar collapse, a stock market crash that takes out the recent "bottom." a U.S. debt implosion, foreign market contagion, war and terrorist attacks. A position in gold and gold shares is an intelligent hedge against such developments. My advice to those who are long gold and/or gold stocks is to hold their positions. If you have not yet made any purchases in this sector, the sharp correction off the May peaks presents a good opportunity for you to leg in.

Black Blade: I agree. The recent pull back in gold prices is an opportunity to add to your position. I am surprised at how well Gold has held up in what is usually a very slow time of the year for precious metals. Even with the equities markets moving higher (though due to intervention), Gold has been quite strong. This Fall we could see the price of Gold move much higher when the Asian Wedding Season and Holiday buying picks up.

Truthcaster (07/30/02; 20:01:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 81907)
Historical Charts Of Interest
www.sharelynx.net/Charts/Historical.htm#US
Hello-
I thought you all might like to see this link.
But you all probably have been to this site.
But I thought some of you might not have.
It's really cool it shows the DJI crash of 1929
and all sorts of gold charts and bear and bull markets
in silver and gold and stocks from the 1800s to 2000
it's well worth the look. Truthcaster...

Cavan Man (07/30/02; 19:42:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 81906)
Thanks Boxman
I like the part about how hoarding gold "undermined" the nation's financial system. What a hoot!

PS: Ever seen a BHS gator?

Black Blade (07/30/02; 19:40:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 81905)
History of bull markets rife with folly
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={263184BC-93AE-458F-AA70-48D11950BB44}&siteid=mktw

Commentary: The worst of this episode isn't behind us

Snippit:

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Wall Street says the worst of the stock market is behind us. The brokers' highly paid strategists, sweating bullets, are urging America to buy early and often. History will demonstrate the stock market's cheerleaders are premature. Just look at the three great bull markets of modern history. The biggest one we know all about: it ended two years ago, and its aftermath has bankrupted thousands of companies and erased $7 trillion or more of American wealth. The other two great bull markets? One was during America's roaring 1920s, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 400 percent. "The Jazz Age was wicked and monstrous and silly. Unfortunately, I had a good time," newspaper columnist Heywood Broun once said. The dancing and drinking of those follies came to a sober end in 1929, marked in red ink by the October crash. History's other great bull market in stocks was in Tokyo during the 1980s. Japanese stocks (and real estate) pumped fresh air into the term "market bubble."

Raging bull markets, when they crash, always end lower than where they started. Yes, Wall Street most likely will enjoy the kind of snapback rallies we are seeing, when the Dow stages 400-point-plus rallies. The upside volume on the New York Stock Exchange Monday amounted to 91 percent of the total -- a testament to the power of program trading, corporate buybacks, short-covering by profitable hedge funds and individuals who pray the worst is over for their fading portfolios. America's 500 biggest stocks are selling for anywhere between 25 and 40 times one year's earnings, depending on how one accounts for nonrecurring charges. Even at the cheap end of that range, the S&P 500 is still selling for more than twice the historical average for a bear-market low.

Black Blade: The Crash of 1929 and through the Great Depression, the stock markets rallied occasionally. I wish I could post a chart for effect, however, the markets would see-saw in a general downward trend. Even with these one-day rallies and dead cat bounces, we are still well below where we started on July 1st. "Interesting Times"

Cavan Man (07/30/02; 19:38:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 81904)
sector
Wednesday, July 31, 2002 10:27 a.m. JST

Govt May Change Policy, Keep Full Protection Of Deposits

TOKYO (Nikkei)--The government will consider maintaining full protection of deposits if used exclusively for settlement purposes, creating a special exception to the end of the full guarantee on all deposits in April. _Read More...

Need subscription for full article.

Black Blade (07/30/02; 19:31:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 81903)
Tuesday's Stock Market WrapUp
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Spin Cycle

Snippit:

They are all turning out to be one-day wonders. The markets explode on the upside with no follow through. One day up and the next day down. The financial markets have recovered from one of the worst months for the stock market in decades. However, the recovery has been in one-day explosive spurts rather than an orderly advance. They are becoming known on the Street as intervention rallies. They are sparked by big movements in the futures markets followed by heavy buying in key selective stocks that drive up the indexes. Yesterday it was the financials and the semis that rose explosively to the upside. The move in semiconductor stocks was prompted by an upgrade of the sector by Goldman Sachs following the firm's purchase of 10,000 calls on the SOX the night before the upgrade.

Black Blade: The Goldman Sachs issue could be a blatant example of manipulation, however, as a member of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, they are exempt from the law if working under the direction of the executive order.

Snippit:

In the same piece last night, the well-respected anchor, Lou Dobbs, said it amazed him that gold had been going up in this kind of low inflationary environment. He was flabbergasted by the fact that investors were buying gold. Dobbs doesn't understand that gold does well in either an inflationary or deflationary environment. The financial community has failed to take into recognition that gold is rising in all markets across the globe. Gold is rising against the yen, the euro, the Swiss frank and the dollar. For the first time since the 70's, investors are fleeing paper assets and heading into things, especially gold and silver. There has been a synchronized rise in gold prices against major currencies around the globe. This movement reflects an inflection point in the markets that runs counter to prevailing investment attitudes towards the markets. The rise in gold is signaling that major trouble lies ahead for the financial markets and the banking system.

Black Blade: I see this as a result of the "Currency War". As nations work hard to debase their currencies, they are attempting to devalue against each other, however, how can this be effectively done against Gold which has no allegiance to any government? The "Currency War" will work to Gold's advantage. Even President Herbert Hoover Jr. and his buddies cannot prevent the inevitable.

Boxman (07/30/02; 19:24:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 81902)
I am having technical difficulties.
http://www.cnn.com/2002/US/07/30/double.eagle/index.html
Something about the 3rd time?

Boxman (07/30/02; 19:19:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 81901)
Here is the link.
http://www.cnn.com/virtual/editions/europe/2000/roof/change.pop/frameset.exclude.html
Sorry about that.

Boxman (07/30/02; 19:18:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 81900)
Isn't she a beauty? The 1933 double gold eagle is autioned.
Kind of takes my breath away. Good artcile concerning the interesting history of this coin.

admin (07/30/02; 19:10:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 81899)
Sweet 16. . . . .
Please note:

We cannot edit portions of a post while the forum is active. We have to eliminate the entire post in order to get rid of the partial address. Also, we have not received a request from Sweet 16 or other family member, but since we are a family oriented channel, we would comply (needless to say) with whatever the parties wanted. Thus it stands. We are happy to alter the post if that is what either Sweet 16 or the family wants. Please contact the Sitemaster for further action.

R Powell (07/30/02; 19:04:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 81898)
A question for Mr. Morgan
I'm guessing that both he and other silver analysts read what catches their interest here and at other metal information internet sites. I hope so, but I've also sent him this question via e-mail. If anyone else can help, please do so!

Thanks for the newsletter and hello again.
I also saw the news on the passage of the silver buying bill in which the 10 million ounce/year coin usage for the past 16 years (length of silver eagle coin program) is mentioned as having depleted the strategic stockpile of 730 million ounces. However:
10 million ounces x 16 years = 160 million ounces
730 minus 160 = 570
Where did the this other 570 million ounces go?
I'm glad to see the coin program continued and happy that the bill has finally been passed and signed even though the market seems oblivious as usual to any fundamental supply/demand silver news. But, curiousity asks, where did the government use the other 570 million ounces???
Thanks
Rich Powell

slingshot (07/30/02; 18:45:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 81897)
ADMIN
ATTENTION
Please read Gandalf the White Msg#81856 and Mr Gresham Msg# 81873 For small edit request. Slingshot-----------<>

YGM (07/30/02; 18:10:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 81896)
Rich...
You're Welcome.....
Well buddy it's mostly all over my head as is eternally obvious! Sometimes I feel like a damn disc jockey who hasn't yet come out of the sixties but keeps the music going for the new generation with all that entails....But then even an ol' miner like me can see the writing on the wall and have the good sense to buy all the "Real Money" I can afford....Now back to pouring cement on the Cabal Graves huh! You can do the finishing trowel work...YGM

"GO GATA"

Cavan Man (07/30/02; 17:56:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 81895)
Mr. Gresham
Shalom to you my friend. If you are ever in Thesalonikki you can venerate the relics of St. Demetrios; they are fragrant. Yes, it's true. Best...CM

YGM (07/30/02; 17:31:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 81894)
OPEN LETTER TO US SENATE SUB-COMMITTEE ON INVESTIGATIONS
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/matisse_table.cfm?cfid=315783&cftoken=79777856&pid=2391

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

July 30, 2002

Dear Alex,

My colleagues and I noted Chief Executive Officer William B. Harrison's response to the United State Senate's Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations. It was notable for what it did not say.

J.P. Morgan Chase and Citigroup have been unlawfully manipulating the price of gold for many years, according to the findings of The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, of which I am chairman. Our evidence of that manipulation may be reviewed at www.GATA.org.

Your committee might want to query Morgan and Citigroup (chairman Sandy Weill) about their gold derivative positions, as related to your investigation. According to the Comptroller of the Currency, two-thirds of the total gold derivatives at their reporting banks are concentrated at these two institutions. Significantly, the gold derivatives at Morgan and Citi jumped in the first quarter of this year in stark contrast with the other reporting banks.

J.P. Morgan Chase and Citibank:

OCC Q1 2002 Derivative report

Gold derivatives increased in Q1 2002.

Total Gold Derivatives Q4 2001 $63.413 billions
Total Gold Derivatives Q1 2002 $71.174 billions

12.24% increase in the quarter....

JPM Q4 2001 $41.049 billions
JPM Q1 2002 $45.234 billions

10.20% increase in the quarter......

Citibank Q4 2001 $7.843 billions
Citibank Q1 2002 $11.246 billions

43.39% increase in the quarter......

Other 372 banks Q4 2001 $14.521 billions
Other 372 banks Q1 2002 $14.694 billions

1.19% increase in the quarter......

These are some questions you might like to ask Mr. Harrison. He should have no problem answering them, since he stated the following in his written response to your committee: "As the largest corporate lender in the world, transparency is key to our business."

1. Has J.P. Morgan Chase, its subsidiaries, Special Purpose Entities, related companies or agents acting on its behalf conducted any gold-related transactions with the U.S. Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, Exchange Stabilization Fund, or any other U.S. government entity, either directly or via an intermediary in the last 20 years?

2. If the answer to the previous question is yes, specifically what transactions did J.P. Morgan Chase conduct with either the U.S. Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury or the Exchange Stabilization Fund or another U.S. government entity?

3. Do such arrangements continue to exist? If so, what is their status?

4. What is the size of such transactions?

5. To the best of J.P. Morgan Chase's knowledge, what was the purpose of such transactions? Were they conducted for investment reasons, or was there a stated or implied intent to artificially depress the price of gold, either for spot or future delivery?

6. According to the Q1 2002 derivatives report from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the notional value of gold derivatives on the books of J.P. Morgan Chase stood at $45.234 billion, a 12.24% increase from the Q4 2001 figure of $41.049 billion. Specifically what can account for this large increase? Is the expansion of the gold derivative book the result of increased gold borrowing/swapping from one or more central banks?

7. Does the figure of $45.234 billion effectively represent the size of J.P. Morgan Chase's gold loan book? Furthermore, does this figure represent position data indicating the size of J.P. Morgan Chase's gold loan book at a point in time, or is it transaction data representing the turnover of various gold derivatives?

8. Is J.P. Morgan Chase aware of any effort on the part of either one or more bullion banks or central banks aimed at depressing the price of gold, either for spot or future delivery?

9. Has J.P. Morgan Chase, including its predecessor, subsidiary and related companies or related entities ever engaged in a gold swap with the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, the Exchange Stabilization Fund or another government entity? If so, what was the size of such a transaction and what was its purpose? Does such an arrangement continue to exist?

10. Has any government entity, be it domestic or foreign provided a written or oral guarantee to cover losses suffered by J.P. Morgan Chase in the gold market? If so, specifically what guarantees has J.P. Morgan Chase received? Did J.P. Morgan Chase engage in any gold-related transactions with the prior knowledge that a government entity was prepared to cover any future losses incurred?

11. JP Morgan Chase maintains the largest gold derivative position of all US banks at $41 Billion. Does JPM carry those gold derivatives as balance sheet assets?

12. What entity is the original source of gold necessarily used for those derivatives? What records exist of those loans or swap transactions?

13. Was the gold purchased? If so, where, when and at what price? If the gold was borrowed how is it the JP Morgan gold derivatives are now listed as balance sheet assets?

14. Are the JP Morgan gold derivatives predominantly established to enhance the counter-party's short or long side of the commodities trade?

15. Was Enron ever a counter-party to any of the JPM precious metals derivatives?

16. Did JP Morgan's long-standing precious metals derivatives trading manager [Dinsa Mehta] recently leave his duties? Why?

17. How much in terms of troy ounces and US dollars are JP Morgan's direct, indirect and contingent liabilities to pay gold? What is the maturity of each of those liabilities?

18. Also, I believe that JP Morgan Chase is a subsidiary of the bank holding company. Therefore, you might want to expand the investigation to the non-bank parent as well as the bank subsidiary, to something like the following:

* Has J.P. Morgan Chase (to mean the holding company and banking subsidiary), its subsidiaries, Special Purpose Entities, related companies or agents acting on its behalf conducted any gold-related transactions with the U.S. Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, Exchange Stabilization Fund, or any other U.S. government entity, either directly or via an intermediary in the last 20 years?

19. Was JP Morgan ever formerly implicated in inappropriate metals market trading practices? Did it pay a fine? In that inappropriate metals trading activity [Hamanaka, Sumitomo 1993 Copper Market], did JP Morgan utilize offshore accounts similar to those in the Enron operations? What was the design goal of the trades... to enhance the counter-party's short or long side of the trade? Did JPM or Sumitomo's Hamanaka first suggest the offshore account technique?

You might also like to ask Enron the following questions:

1. Did Enron possess a precious metals trading license from the London Bullion market Association? What did that license cost?

2. What was the nature (Which metal) and magnitude (Quarterly size) of the precious metals trades?

3. Were the precious metals trades integrated in any way to Enron's energy trades?

4. Were the Enron precious metals trades facilitated, in any way, by JP Morgan Chase or any its offshore affiliated entities such as Mahonia or any of the other offshore entities? Which JPM entities were involved? To what quarterly magnitude?

5. Who first suggested that Enron get involved in precious metals activities? When was this suggestion made?

6. Was Enron ever a counter-party to any of the JPM precious metals derivatives?

7. Did JP Morgan's long-standing precious metals derivatives trading manager [Dinsa Mehta] recently leave his duties? Why?

It would be my pleasure to go Washington to meet with your committee on this matter.

All the best,

Bill Murphy
Chairman
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

Please send this letter to the following:

http://www.senate.gov/~gov_affairs/psi_members.htm

Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations

Majority
Minority

Carl Levin, Michigan
Chairman

Daniel Akaka, Hawaii
Richard Durbin, Illinois
Robert Torricelli, New Jersey
Max Cleland, Georgia
Thomas Carper, Delaware
Jean Carnahan, Missouri
Mark Dayton, Minnesota
Susan Collins, Maine
Ranking Member

Ted Stevens, Alaska
George Voinovich, Ohio
Thad Cochran, Mississippi
Robert Bennett, Utah
Jim Bunning, Kentucky
Peter Fitzgerald, Illinois

Carl H (07/30/02; 17:30:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 81893)
@misetich Organized Crime and Bankers
Yes, there are a couple differences.

1. The Organized Crime types are probably afraid of the bankers.
2. The Organized Crime types break the laws. The bankers simply pay to have them rewritten.

misetich (07/30/02; 17:29:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 81892)
Global: Global Aftershocks -Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20020729-mon.html#anchor0
Snip:

This summer's firestorm in financial markets spells downside risks to the global economy. It's just a question of degree, in my view. Around the world, our economists are tinkering with their models, preparing for the inevitable downward revisions to their growth forecasts. In the works is the first significant recasting of our 2003 global growth outlook since we unveiled it late last year.

..............
Suffice it to say, America has sneezed. Dick Berner has now sounded a clear note of caution and is preparing to mark down his long-standing 4% growth forecast for the second half of 2002. The revisions are likely to be relatively modest -- maybe 0.5-1.0 percentage point lower -- and stop far short of the double dip that I still think is in the cards before year-end. But Dick has now made it clear that he is worried about more than just a minor hiccup on the growth front (see his most recent Forum dispatches, "Tipping Point?" of 22 July and "Hesitation Watch" of 26 July.) Recent reports of a deteriorating capital-spending picture -- as evidenced by weakening trends in nondefense capital goods orders and shipments for June -- only underscore those concerns. So, too, does the vulnerability of the American consumer that I continue to believe will make or break the case for a US double dip (see my 26 July dispatch. "Last Line of Defense"). And revisions to the US growth prognosis will undoubtedly be complicated by the upcoming statistical recasting of history about to be unveiled by Washing statisticians -- a so-called "benchmark" revision that I continue to believe will result in a significantly weaker assessment of US economic growth in 2000-01 (see my 27 June dispatch, "House of Mirrors"). Until those numbers are in hand -- they are slated for release on 31 July -- I agree with Dick that it doesn't make much sense to issue a formal revision of the US growth forecast.

...........
Our Euro team is leaning the same way. The transmission of financial market disruptions into the real side of the Euroland economy is different than it is the United States. Banks are more central to the credit intermediation process in Europe, whereas capital market intermediation now plays a disproportionate role in America. Conversely, stocks are less widely owned in Europe than in the US, suggestive of smaller equity wealth effects. Notwithstanding those contrasts, Eric Chaney, co-head of our Euro team, concluded in his 25 July dispatch ("Euroland: Bending Not Breaking") that "the slump in equity prices is unambiguously negative (for European growth prospects)."
.............
Jul 29, 2002

Global: Global Aftershocks
United States: The High Stakes of a Regulatory Backlash
United States: Review and Preview
Euroland: Bending but Not Breaking
Europe - All: Stress Points
United Kingdom: Wealth Effects -- A Shock to the System
Japan: The Fastest CRIC Cycle Yet (Part II)
Japan: Removal of Depo Guarantees, While Avoiding Bank Failures?
Switzerland: A Dire Message
Asia Pacific: Recoupling?

Global: Global Aftershocks

Stephen Roach (New York)

This summer's firestorm in financial markets spells downside risks to the global economy. It's just a question of degree, in my view. Around the world, our economists are tinkering with their models, preparing for the inevitable downward revisions to their growth forecasts. In the works is the first significant recasting of our 2003 global growth outlook since we unveiled it late last year.

Globalization has its pluses and minuses. But the cross-border connectivity of world financial markets that it has spawned is the stuff of a potentially lethal contagion. We saw that with a vengeance in 1998, and we're seeing strong hints of it again today. The impacts, of course, differ from country to country and region to region. But the combination of negative wealth effects, dislocations in credit markets, and heightened volatility and uncertainty have put deteriorating financial market conditions on a collision course with recovery in the broader global economy. Moreover, the increased linkages on the real side of the world economy -- still dominated by a striking US-centricity -- only serve to magnify the problem. Gone are the days when asynchronous business cycles in various countries provided natural offsets for the global economy at large. In an era of globalization, the world is more synchronous and, therefore, more prone to extremes. That's the stuff of both virtuous and vicious circles.

That's especially the case when the engine of the world economy -- the United States -- starts to sputter. With America continuing to play the predominant role in shaping aggregate demand for the world at large, a faltering in US growth prospects has profound global implications. In my travels around the world in the past several months, there's only one question that seems to come up in client discussions -- the outlook for the US economy. Despite all the work we have done in analyzing the macro-dynamics of Europe, Asia, Latin America, and Emerging Europe, the conversations these days always seem to start and end with an examination of US growth prognosis. With America having accounted for approximately 40% of the cumulative growth in world GDP since late 1994 -- double its share of global output -- it's not hard to figure out why. Outside of the US, the world economy is still lacking in autonomous sources of domestic demand vigor, leaving it very much dependent on the US-led external demand of the global trade cycle. And so when America sneezes, the rest of the world quickly catches that proverbial cold.

Suffice it to say, America has sneezed. Dick Berner has now sounded a clear note of caution and is preparing to mark down his long-standing 4% growth forecast for the second half of 2002. The revisions are likely to be relatively modest -- maybe 0.5-1.0 percentage point lower -- and stop far short of the double dip that I still think is in the cards before year-end. But Dick has now made it clear that he is worried about more than just a minor hiccup on the growth front (see his most recent Forum dispatches, "Tipping Point?" of 22 July and "Hesitation Watch" of 26 July.) Recent reports of a deteriorating capital-spending picture -- as evidenced by weakening trends in nondefense capital goods orders and shipments for June -- only underscore those concerns. So, too, does the vulnerability of the American consumer that I continue to believe will make or break the case for a US double dip (see my 26 July dispatch. "Last Line of Defense"). And revisions to the US growth prognosis will undoubtedly be complicated by the upcoming statistical recasting of history about to be unveiled by Washing statisticians -- a so-called "benchmark" revision that I continue to believe will result in a significantly weaker assessment of US economic growth in 2000-01 (see my 27 June dispatch, "House of Mirrors"). Until those numbers are in hand -- they are slated for release on 31 July -- I agree with Dick that it doesn't make much sense to issue a formal revision of the US growth forecast.

Our Euro team is leaning the same way. The transmission of financial market disruptions into the real side of the Euroland economy is different than it is the United States. Banks are more central to the credit intermediation process in Europe, whereas capital market intermediation now plays a disproportionate role in America. Conversely, stocks are less widely owned in Europe than in the US, suggestive of smaller equity wealth effects. Notwithstanding those contrasts, Eric Chaney, co-head of our Euro team, concluded in his 25 July dispatch ("Euroland: Bending Not Breaking") that "the slump in equity prices is unambiguously negative (for European growth prospects)." He also believes that a "soft credit crunch" could actually be starting on the Continent. Recent declines in European business confidence surveys -- especially for Italy, Belgium, and Germany -- underscore the linkage between financial market uncertainty and corporate sentiment. Reflecting these concerns, our Euro team has issued a warning that it, too, is leaning toward lowering its assessment of growth prospects for late 2002 and early 2003. The likelihood is that we'll initially slice about 0.3-0.4 percentage point off our relatively anemic baseline forecast that currently averages just 2.2% real GDP growth over this two-year interval -- short of a double dip but not leaving much of a cushion against additional shocks.

Robert Feldman is sending a similar message regarding Japan (see his 25 July dispatch, "The Fastest CRIC Cycle Yet (Part I)" and Part II in today's Forum). Post-bubble Japan, in Robert's view, has been unable to extricate itself from the vicious circle of Crisis, Response, Improvement, and Complacency. The complacency of recent months -- manifested in the form of a cyclical rebound in both the Japanese economy and its equity market -- is now coming quickly to an end, in his view. This reflects an ominous confluence of events -- a sharp recent weakening of the Japanese stock market -- with the TOPIX index falling well below previous record lows -- renewed concerns about banking reform, deepening worries about the life insurance industry, and an export-led shortfall in economic growth.
...........
Nor can any offsets be counted on in the developing world. That's certainly the case in crisis-torn South America -- especially Brazil and Argentina. But the biggest risks are probably in Asia excluding Japan -- a region that we would judge as remaining very much a levered play on US domestic demand. With the exception of Korea, there is little inherent vigor to the region's autonomous sources of domestic demand growth. Almost by default, that leaves it heavily dependent on global trade. Moreover, the Korean consumption boom now seems to have run its course, prompting Andy Xie recently to cut his 2003 growth forecast for that economy to 4.9% (from 5.5%). In addition, there are now signs that Taiwan's IT-led export boom is in trouble; at least, that's the verdict from a host of economic indicators as well as from the recent profit warning of one of its biggest technology companies, TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company). All this is symptomatic of what could turn out to be a surprisingly vulnerable Asian economy. Under the worst-case scenario of a US double dip, Andy believes the baseline 2003 GDP growth forecast for the region would have to lowered to just 3.3% (from 5.9%); by way of comparison, that's only slightly faster than the 2.1% gain recorded in 1998, when Asia went through its worst crisis of the modern era.

On balance, there can be no mistaking our shifting assessment of global growth risks. Based on the tentative assessment of our economics team, I expect that we will shortly be cutting our 2003 estimate of world GDP growth by at least 0.3 percentage point, to 3.7% (from 4.0%). In the context of my long-standing concerns about a US double dip, I would personally place the downside to global growth for 2003 in the 3.0-3.5% range. That means that this revision to our global prognosis could well turn out to be the first of several more to come.

************

Misetich

Got gold?

Mr Gresham (07/30/02; 17:13:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 81891)
Misetich
"Is there a difference between Organized Crime and Investment Bankers?"

I'm shocked -- SHOCKED! -- that you could even post such a blatant question on a proper forum such as this!

Now you're gonna have me going out and renting the Godfather series and Goodfellas and Sopranos for the rest of the week... ;) Complete my banking education right there, most likely.

(Actually -- while I'm probing deep ethnic gulfs tonight --didn't they both originate somewhere in the region of Machiavelli? I mean, how far IS Venice from Sicily, -- sorry, Pizz -- get your .02 in if you want -- and really, my point is not some ethnic connection, but the fact that Man has devised various systems for exploiting other Men. They ARE interesting to study, and to compare. Especially the invisible ones...)

Following up with the quote (not Will Rogers, but a California S&L commissioner) about the best way to rob a bank being to own one...

misetich (07/30/02; 17:13:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 81890)
Property bubble kept afloat by rising house prices
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1027953272652&p=1012571727304
Snip:

By Alison Beard in New York
Published: July 30 2002 5:00 | Last Updated: July 30 2002 5:00

Sceptics who believe theUS housing market is a bubble waiting to burst seized on last week's news that existing home sales dropped 11.7 per cent from May to June.

But, with prices up 7.4 per cent year-on-year and new home sales set to top the 1m mark for the first time in 2002, housing bulls still have the most support.

"Declines in confidence ought to be damaging to home sales but we haven't seen that materialise," said John Lonski, chief economist at Moody's Investors Service. The new data may suggest "an impending peak" but not a bursting bubble, he said.
..............
The forces that powered housing through the stock market slump and the recession are still in evidence. The 30-year mortgage rate continues to fall, hitting a 37-year low as measured by its spread over 10-year Treasuries last week, according to Moody's. "That has helped to maintain affordability despite the run-up in prices," Mr Lonski said
............
But homebuyers should be cautious. High-flying markets are likely to see some drop-off in prices this year. "With rapid price appreciation in the last few years and lack of job creation . . . there is the potential for a bubble," Mr Lonski said.

The apartment market shows signs of weakness, and falling rents - combined with an uncertain economy - may convince potential buyers to hold off. Another recession could force highly-leveraged recent and low- income buyers into default, depressing the entire market, according to the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University.

***************
By excluding "housing" from the CPI - the manipulators can claim non-existent inflation - as a house is considered an investment

Greenspan does not recognize a housing bubble - at least publicly -

Lets stay on this TRAIL

Got gold?

Mr Gresham (07/30/02; 16:59:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 81889)
Cavan Man ;)
Watch out there, bub! That's my in-laws yer talking 'bout there! ;) (And, so also, my kids.)

Actually, it's gettin' so confusing around here -- don't know whether to take 'em to synagogue, or St. Patty's Day parade, or St. Demetrios festival, or St. Anthony's, or Scottish Clans gathering, so maybe as a compromise, I've settled on Kwanzaa this year. ;)

It used to be so much simpler when it was just Thanksgiving, and Grandma's house was still just a harpoon's throw from Plymouth Rock. But, then I found the genealogy exploration gettin' to be just a little TOO easy, know whudda mean? With us all bein' cousins 'n' all. Those same four guys kept poppin' up all over the top of the charts...

New blood has been good for us, if not for the former occupants who lacked resistance to our viruses. My blood stirs too at the slaughters which decimated innocent villages, of whom my ancestors were, of course, the survivors. By Odin, I thought (when I was a kid), I'll avenge them all!

Now I know I can do my part better by just making sure my kids learn about Gandhi, Pasteur, and Margaret Sanger, and hope they take their cues from there. Peace.

misetich (07/30/02; 16:58:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 81888)
Providian to Cut 1,300 Jobs
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=580&ncid=580&e=8&u=/nm/20020730/bs_nm/financial_providian_earns_dc_1
Snip:
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Credit card issuer Providian Financial Corp. on Tuesday said it would close three facilities and cut 1,300 jobs, or about 16 percent of its work force, as it reported lower quarterly earnings.

*************

Misetich

Yep the jobless US economic recovery continues-as the Bone Pile gets bigger

Got gold?

misetich (07/30/02; 16:46:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 81887)
Is the difference between Organized Crime and Investment Bankers?
http://www.forbes.com/newswire/2002/07/30/rtr681142.html
Snip:

"I don't consider that to be cooperating with the subcommittee at all," said Minnesota Sen. Mark Dayton, adding that he suspected Kelly Martin -- the only witness to answer questions -- was chosen to talk because he knew so little.
...............
The subcommittee produced hundreds of documents and a video recording of Enron's former chief financial officer, Andrew Fastow, in its attempt to show that Merrill, the world's largest brokerage, helped Enron to deceive public investors.

"Merrill Lynch assisted Enron in cooking its books," said subcommittee Chairman Carl Levin, a Michigan Democrat.
.................

The former Merrill executive, Robert Furst, and a current executive, Schuyler Tilney, invoked their constitutional right against self-incrimination, refused to testify and left. Tilney was placed on leave by Merrill on Friday over his refusal.

Misetich

Organized Crime uses set up "legitimate" businesses to hide their dirty deeds - so do investment bankers and the Enron's of the world

Got gold?

misetich (07/30/02; 16:31:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 81886)
BOND OUTLOOK -This has a familiar and Japan-like ring to it!
http://www.euromoney.com/index.html
Snip:

Two questions are preoccupying us this week:

Will the slide in share prices have a negative impact on the real economy?
Is the economic outlook tending towards inflation or deflation?

Since the bursting of the dot.com bubble, households, rather than corporations, have kept the US economy going, at the cost of an enormous and unsustainable trade deficit. We continue to be amazed at the Americans' insouciance about spending in the face of rising unemployment and stock market losses. The Administration is playing every card to keep consumers spending. However, when "paper losses", amounting to some $2 trillion in the last fortnight alone, are seen to wash through to the real value of pension funds, then consumers are likely to start saving again. Increased saving, good, even essential, in the long run, will mean decreased demand in the coming months.

On the corporate front, few companies are investing. Greenspan states, "Evidence for a sustained recovery will include a pick-up in business investment, so far elusive". Telecom companies have massively over-invested, as have media firms. Banks and insurers are suffering directly from the market slide and the absence of M&A and underwriting business. Banks are no longer willing to lend, the commercial paper market has shrunk, and the corporate bond market is resistant to new issues. The corporate world on both sides of the Atlantic is in the paradoxical situation of suffering a credit squeeze, even though there is so much liquidity around. Those who want to borrow cannot, while those to whom the banks would like to lend do not want to borrow. This has a familiar and Japan-like ring to it! The IPO market pretty much dried up about three months ago, and rights issues are at fire-sale prices (e.g. Ericsson). Currently, therefore, corporations have very little access to debt or equity funding, and cannot even sell off their unwanted subsidiaries at a decent price (e.g. WorldCom and MCI, or SwissLife and Banca del Gottardo). There is a lot of securitised debt around plus outstanding derivatives; much of this is collapsing in value from WorldCom and knock-on effects, but it is not even clear who is exposed. There is every likelihood of class actions against banks, against which, in the current anti-bank atmosphere in the USA, the banks will not stand a chance. Rarely can the need for caution in investments have been greater.

So, yes, we do believe the current financial market crisis will have a negative impact on the real economy, although this is all part of the great disillusionment that the USA is now going through and to which the rest of the world can scarcely remain indifferent. How symbolic of the loss of confidence in US financial institutions is the fact that even J.P.Morgan and Citibank are now following Andersen along that bumpy road from pillars of the establishment to subjects of criminal investigation.

The answer to the second question follows from the first. Corporations cannot raise their prices. Imported goods to the USA will cost more, but that is part of the rebalancing of the external deficit. Although the trade gap is enormous (4.3% of GDP), as a percentage of the economy as a whole, imports are fairly small (15% of GDP) with only modest inflationary effect. In the USA therefore we expect low inflation to continue. The starting point is so low (a mere 1% per year at consumer level), that, even though import prices will push up the rate, the absolute level is likely to stay modest (e.g. 2.5%), and there will be a long delay until further tightening. In Europe the stronger euro is helping dampen inflation, while Japan still has falling prices. Between the twin risks of inflation and deflation, we see deflation as the greater and more serious.

Misetich

The bond boys and girls are sounding the alarm bell- who's listening?

Got gold?

Cavan Man (07/30/02; 16:29:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 81885)
misetich
What's next? Short Chile.

misetich (07/30/02; 16:22:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 81884)
Amid deepening economic crisis, Uruguay calls banking holiday
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2002/07/30/financial1513EDT0187.DTL&type=business
RAUL GARCES, Associated Press Writer Tuesday, July 30, 2002
(07-30) 12:20 PDT MONTEVIDEO, Uruguay (AP) --

Uruguay ordered its banks closed at 1 p.m. Tuesday in an attempt to stanch the flow of capital in the midst of a growing financial crisis.

The stock market also closed early after the government earlier in the day suspended banking by Banco Montevideo and Caja Obrera for "the non-fulfillment of regulations."

The amount of capital in many banks has fallen dramatically in recent weeks, as hundreds of millions of dollars have been taken out of the financial system.

As rumors of a banking holiday spread, long lines began to form outside the capital's main banks, as people sought to take as much of their savings as possible from automatic teller machines. The government later announced that ATMs would be shut down.

Meanwhile, newly appointed Economy Minister Alejandro Atchugarry met with the Central Bank president and senior bankers in an effort to work through the crisis.

Uruguay's banking system has been badly shaken by the deep economic crisis and financial system meltdown in neighboring Argentina, which has made savers jittery and made it hard for the country to raise credit. The country is also laboring through its fourth year of recession.

**************8

Misetich

Who's next?

Got gold?

misetich (07/30/02; 16:01:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 81883)
Amid deepening economic crisis, Uruguay calls banking holiday
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/2002/07/30/financial1513EDT0187.DTL&type=business
Snip:

(07-30) 12:20 PDT MONTEVIDEO, Uruguay (AP) --

Uruguay ordered its banks closed at 1 p.m. Tuesday in an attempt to stanch the flow of capital in the midst of a growing financial crisis.

The stock market also closed early after the government earlier in the day suspended banking by Banco Montevideo and Caja Obrera for "the non-fulfillment of regulations."

The amount of capital in many banks has fallen dramatically in recent weeks, as hundreds of millions of dollars have been taken out of the financial system.

As rumors of a banking holiday spread, long lines began to form outside the capital's main banks, as people sought to take as much of their savings as possible from automatic teller machines. The government later announced that ATMs would be shut down.

Misetich

Who's next?

Got gold?

R Powell (07/30/02; 15:15:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 81882)
YGM // silver
Thanks for thinking of me.
It's an interesting article but I think Mr. Savoie gives the shorts too much credit for the current low appraisal of silver. Using up what the world had stockpiled over 5,000 years took some time.

Supply leased and then sold into the market or supply simply sold (without the lease) into the market both are entered as "supply" on the yearly balance sheet. The end result is the same with the only difference being that leased silver has to be "repaid" at some point. I've asked David Morgan whether leased silver must be repaid in metal. He answered that he had never seen any lease agreements and did not know for sure. If metal is not available, will fiat be accepted (at a higher price of course)?

The last 12 years supply/demand deficit has been recorded for all to see in GFMS annual Silver Surveys. Is anyone watching? If word of a big order for corn or wheat became known, the price of each would rise immediately but the passage of a government buying bill has gone unnoticed by both the market players and analysts. Leasing has certainly added to supply and has created a huge OTC short obligation but this is not well known or Comex connected. It's almost like a side bet between friends at a paramutual race track. In that it wasn't recorded, it doesn't change the odds on the tot board. What it may eventually do is greatly increase the demand for metal if leases include penalty clauses for fiat, rather than silver, settlement.

What I find most intriguing is that the deficit remains year after year with ever decreasing existing supply (as opposed to yearly production) having now reached the point where, depending on the exact size of coming deficits, it is almost assured that demand will exceed ALL available supply in the foreseeable future! This should have caused price rationing and increased production spurred on by higher prices. The market seems oblivious to this just as Nasdog investors became oblivious to the fact that they were investing in overvalued companies that held no assets, made no profits and paid no dividends. Markets are not wrong, investors often are. The markets simply reflect the players opinions.

For whatever reasons (and I have some theories on the whys) the POS is not reacting to market fundamentals, it seems to me like a good opportunity for investment. Neither Joe Kennedy nor Jessie Livermore cried out about the market mania they saw in the summer of 1929. Instead, each went about his business of shorting the Dow and each made millions. Perhaps we can make a buck or two with silver.

I intentionally avoided manipulation "supposins" here as imho when there is not enough physical silver for even industrial and photographic demand, whatever manipulation exists will become unsustainable. Indeed, it will supercharge the price explosion with some OTC borrowers trying to repay with silver. It has helped to set up what may be a once in a lifetime opportunity. As for Comex rule changes, an extremely volatile market will immediately require greater margin requirements as there will be greater risk. Other changes may occur as in the past. Hopefully, we're not too greedy as to be caught if "liguidation only" orders are instituted. Hopefully, physical will be safe and paper market players take their own risks. Nothing sure but death and taxes?
Thoughts?
Rich

goldfool (07/30/02; 15:10:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 81881)
Gandalf, sector, YGM
Sweet sixteen - Code name used by members of a secretive liberal swat team formed under the Clinton/Rubin administration dedicated to exposing and terminating right wing radical subversives who are trying to bring down the American banking system by spreading the truth about their evil ways and by investing in and promoting the virtues of gold. You've been duped! Just kidding, HAH!

NEMO me impune lacessit (07/30/02; 14:52:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 81880)
@Operative - Thanks
Thank You for adding some substance to my foggy news.

Very best to You
Nemo

Black Blade (07/30/02; 14:50:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 81879)
Gold Coin Auction

In about an hour the 1933 double eagle will be auctioned at Sotheby's. It is expected to fetch about $6 million. I don't think my bid will be accepted so I am off to the gym.

- Black Blade

Old Yeller (07/30/02; 14:40:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 81878)
Latest on Brazil's debt woes
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk,&s2=ad_right1_topfin&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APUbc9BYiQnJhemls

Some pretty large numbers being tossed around here.

Operative (07/30/02; 14:30:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 81877)
Big Money In Gold Stocks
http://iw.thomsonfn.com/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_active?sec=&ind=134&mgp=134
A good link to track the big bucks in the gold stocks.

Cavan Man (07/30/02; 14:13:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 81876)
Mr. Gresham
My people were slaves also. We were the filth of the world washed upon upon these shores. We were ridiculed, persecuted, discriminated against, mocked and spat upon. We made it. We built a large portion of this country. We are Americans and we love this country. Our history is something to be proud of and something to abhor. Our history remains in the books and our baggage has been checked at the door. Today, upon these lands where we live, we are Americans and we stand alongside those who profess the same sentiments.

Mr Gresham (07/30/02; 13:39:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 81875)
Cavan Man
You're right. Before, all they really, really REALLY had to do was to locate the 200 or 300 planted operatives from ME nations, -- poorly-blended into American society -- who were waiting to create further mischief.

Now, as Malcolm said, the "chickens [of slavery] have come home to roost."

I have had this conversation before: Knowing my personality make-up, if I had grown up a Black Man in America, I would have had quite a challenge finding the inner resources to maintain my peaceful and tranquil disposition amidst all the insults around me.

We had some reaching out -- to Islamic Americans -- to do before. Now, we've really gotta go back and review some histories and meet some people we hardly even know exist.

YGM (07/30/02; 13:38:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 81874)
Rich Powell...Here's one for you.....
http://www.silver-investor.com/SILVERSTORMINWASHINGTONDC.htm
Excerpt.....
SILVER STORM IN WASHINGTON D.C.

Copyright August 2002 Charles Savoie

True to form as predicted in the previous silver essay hosted here, the informational media remains as silent as a gagged man in an undiscovered cave concerning what various of them undoubtedly know is nearing---the unavoidable cataclysm in the silver market. Naked short sellers and industrial users have had their way with silver for long years, and some of them thought it could go on forever. With the COMEX, CBOT and CFTC having the attitude towards the users and the bullion bank shorts of "do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the law" they were free to raid the candy store for a generation, with the deficit covered by the central bank leasing shenanigan. Now we tell them, keep the price suppressed, if you can, when supplies of interest rate sensitive (leasable) silver are as extinct as the passenger pigeon! This arrogant band of manipulators with their egotistical attitude like the kept press, which has covered up their termite-like activities will have to send its most glib talking representatives to Congressional hearings once the Senate and House are forced to start public investigations of the silver shortages. The struggle for honest information is soon to commence. Expect the media to edit out those parts of Congressional hearings, which would depict short sellers and the users lobby association as having created the shortage. They have inexorably done so by consistently making silver mining profitless by rigging the price at fraudulently low levels. Expect also that proposals will be entertained to force Americans to sell their bullion and coin silver at a fixed price of $5 per ounce to some Homeland Security Agency. Indeed, such a bill has probably already been drafted (in Manhattan) and ready to be launched! I propose instead, that for justice to be had, that those culpable for the shortage---naked short sellers---the CFTC and COMEX has their exact identity, and the Silver Users Association, be assessed the cost of procuring a new national strategic silver stockpile of perhaps 300 million ounces. If the price spikes to $200 an ounce, let these entities be assessed the entire $60 billion in costs and be forbidden to pass the loss along to consumers by elevated product prices.

Recall that Jerome Smith in his 1983 book, "The New Boom In Silver," predicted silver would reach $200 per ounce by 1986. What he hadn't figured on 19 years ago was, central bank "leasing," now over or very soon to be, with something on the order of 1 million silver ounces vanishing into the black hole of the deficit every three days! Silver leasing is an act whose time is OVER; so, I suggest we will see the $200 price projection fulfilled on the not too distant horizon!

Cont'd at Link....YGM. (thanks Cam)

Mr Gresham (07/30/02; 13:31:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 81873)
Randy/TC/admin
Did you catch our Wizard's request back there?

#1 rule: The Pack protects its own...

Cavan Man (07/30/02; 13:28:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 81872)
Uh Oh....This is a REAL PROBLEM. (Read on.)
These two guys are Afro-Americans who became Muslims
Feds Arrest Al Qaeda Suspects With Plans to Poison Water Supplies
Tuesday, July 30, 2002

By Carl Cameron

WASHINGTON -- Federal officials have arrested two Al Qaeda terror suspects in the U.S. with documents in their possession about how to poison the country's water supplies, Fox News has learned.

The first case involves James Ujaama, 36, who surrendered to the FBI last week in Denver. Sources say they found documents about water poisoning among several other terrorism-related documents in his Denver residence.

Sources say the government has additional evidence that prior to Sept. 11 James Ujaama acted as a courier delivering laptop computers to the Taliban. Federal agents seized two computers and two floppy disks from the house where James Ujaama had been staying when he was arrested as a material witness to terrorist activity, his brother said.

James Ujaama's brother is Mustafa Ujaama, the founder of the now-closed Dar-us-Salaam mosque in Seattle. The FBI has been investigating activities and officials from the former mosque for several months.

Investigators believe officials and members of the mosque were trying to establish a terrorist training camp in Bly, Ore., Fox News has confirmed. Investigators say there is evidence that Mustafa Ujaama visited Bly to check it out as a possible facility location.

The Ujaama brothers are also known to have helped establish several Web sites for radical Islamic clerics worldwide.

Another former member of the mosque is also now in custody and suspected of plotting terrorist attacks. His name is Semi Osman and he too is accused of having documents about poisoning water supplies in his possession when he was arrested.

Sources say the Ujaama brothers and Osman are all tied to a prominent radical Muslim cleric in London named Sheikh Abu Hamza Al-Masri. Al-Masri is a one-eyed mullah who is often seen preaching at Finsbury Park's North London Central Mosque and is wanted in Yemen on terrorism charges.

Investigators say they have evidence indicating that Al-Masri supplied the information about poisoning water supplies to both James Ujaama and Semi Osman.

Furthermore, sources say Al-Masri's Web site was designed by the Ujaama brothers.

James Ujaama was arrested Monday at his grandmother's home. Mustafa Ujaama said he did not know what was on the disks that were taken from the home. One of the computers belonged to Mustafa Ujaama and the other was his son's, he said.

FBI spokesman John Lipka confirmed that agents went to the grandmother's house but would not say why. "We are in furtherance of an active investigation," he said.

Holding a person as a material witness -- someone believed to have important information -- allows federal authorities to keep him in custody indefinitely.

Federal authorities speaking on condition of anonymity have said authorities believe James Ujaama took computer equipment to an Al Qaeda terrorist camp in Afghanistan. They said authorities also were investigating whether James Ujaama trained at the camp.

Earlier news reports said James Ujaama was taken to Virginia after his arrest, but his lawyer, Daniel J. Sears, said he was jailed in Denver. Justice officials have refused to confirm where he was being held.

Sears said James Ujaama had not been charged with any crime. He said a hearing has been scheduled to review the legality of the detention, but he could not say where or when. He said his client is outspoken and has publicly disagreed with the government on Middle East issues.

"I hope we have not advanced to the point in this country where we are jailing people because the government may disagree with their beliefs," Sears said.

Agents arrived at the home at about 5 p.m. and spent about two hours inside. Mustafa Ujaama said they had a warrant.

The brothers moved to Denver this month from Seattle. Mustafa Ujaama was detained briefly on Monday when his brother was arrested.

Their aunt, Robin Thompson, stood outside the home during the search.

"They could have done this in Seattle. We are Americans. I don't know why they're doing this," she said.

The brothers were born James Ernest Thompson and Jon Thompson and grew up in Seattle. Some community leaders there have credited them with helping to rid their poor, black neighborhood of drugs and prostitution by recruiting former gang members and others into the Dar-us-Salaam mosque.

jayzee (07/30/02; 13:24:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 81871)
Tennessee - Banana Republic
Observations and opinions in response to msg.#81842 from a Tennessee resident.
Our governor was a Democrat who switched to the Republican Party in order to get elected. In his second term he showed his true colors by trying to pass a 5% income tax. This was needed to finance socialist spending such as Tenn-Care which increased 22% last year.

In the past, our state has attracted income earners (workers, professionals, corporate people, etc.) because of no income tax, but lately we have an influx of welfare people who get more benefits here than in neighboring states.

Some Dems. have stated that this 5% tax will solve all our problems and probably never be increased, but most of us did not believe this crap! I notice that California has a 9% income tax and want to increase to 11% because of a 22 billion budget shortfall. (This is from memory, and may not be accurate.)

I got a good laugh about the Clinton administration honesty and the prosperity and balanced budgets, etc. Most of us at this site know about the Ponzi type scheme (borrowed gold that must be paid back) of gold and stock market manipulations to produce the appearance of greater prosperity than normally would have occured.

YGM (07/30/02; 13:20:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 81870)
SWEET 16....
GIRLS CAN KICK BUTT!!
I have 2 daughters and I've taught them to believe that Girls can change the world and do anything else they put their mind to....and you're welcome to any help you need or links etc....Now watch out there may be a swarm of GoldBug Posters sons trying to take over the forum with a Sweet 16 lady aboard :>}}

Tommy P (07/30/02; 13:15:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 81869)
Saudi prince
Sounds like a conspiracy to me! Story has way to many holes to be legit. Maybe there is a cou-dayta happening in the rich oil fields, interesting mmmmmmmmmmmm.

SWEET 16 (07/30/02; 13:08:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 81868)
YGM
Sorry, I didn't read your message before posting. I am catching on. Thanks for helping me. I feel good just trying to help out.

Sweet 16

Operative (07/30/02; 13:04:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 81867)
@ NEMO: Saudi Prince Story
http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_28319,0005.htm
Saudi prince found dead in desert
Agence France-Presse
Riyadh, July 30

Saudi Prince Fahd bin Turki bin Saud al Kabir has been found dead in his
country's searing desert, the official SPA news agency said early on Tuesday,
adding that the prince apparently died of thirst.

The report said the 25-year-old prince had been travelling in Rimah province,
south of the town of al Ammaniya.

It gave no further details.

Prince Fahd was the third member of the extensive Saudi royal family to die in a
week.

Prince Sultan bin Faisal bin Turki al-Saud, 41, died in a road accident on July 23
as he was driving from the coastal resort of Jeddah to the capital Riyadh for the
funeral of his cousin Prince Ahmed bin Salman bin Abdul Aziz, 43, who had died
the day before of a heart attack.

SWEET 16 (07/30/02; 13:02:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 81866)
gandalf and sector
Thanks y'all for the advice and encouragement. Dad told me there were good people at this site.

Since I do not know any other people to write to, could someone suggest the name and email address of anyone who might help us? I will try to do my part and write to them too.

Thanks again.

YGM (07/30/02; 12:59:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 81865)
SWEET 16 (Molly) and "ALL"....Gold Believers................
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/Ni2/CentralBanks.html
Way to go Molly...Good to see you posting here...You sound more grown up & wiser than some adults I know...Here's something you can do if you wish to further your cause and maybe some others will follow suit...Send this letter to Central Banks and to Senators and Congressmen/Women also...
I salute you, wish my 19 yr old daughter showed the same interest and spunk.....Best Regards to you.....YGM

PS: the link has a list of Central Banks addresses....
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
A new letter to be sent by gold advocates to all major

Central Banks

By James Sinclair & Harry Schultz

Dear Mr.

1. Do you know that Enron has been reported to have many derivative transactions in gold?

2. Do you know that gold producers represent only 11% of the notional value of gold derivatives reported on the books of the international commercial banks by the International Monetary Fund? Therefore, approximately 89% of the ultimate beneficiaries of gold you have leased have no gold production with which to replace your gold?

3. Do you know who has been the ultimate benefactor of all the gold leases you have been party to?

4. Do you know that in time you might be revealed to have inadvertently financed corporate crimes? (a la Enron)

5. Do you realize that it is impossible at present market level for the gold that you have leased to be returned as gold?

6. Do you know that the ultimate beneficiaries of the gold you have leased are poor credit risks and getting worse?

7. Do you realize that as the investigations into the affairs of the corporate criminals progress, you may well have lost all the gold you have leased, financed crime, and failed a national trust?

It is your obligation, as head of a Central Bank, now that you are informed, to investigate the practices of gold leasing and take appropriate measures to stop financing crime.

Sincerely yours,

To contact Harry D. Schultz www.heletter.com & James Sinclair at www.tanrange.com

NEMO me impune lacessit (07/30/02; 12:36:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 81864)
(No Subject)
Ohhhhh... I love those links...

NEMO me impune lacessit (07/30/02; 12:33:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 81863)
Gandalf, had my crystal ball this morning...
http://www.ask.com/main/metaAnswer.asp?t=ai&s=ai&MetaEngine=directhit&en=te&eo=4&o=0&frames=True&url=http%3A%2F%2Fask%2Edirecthit%2Ecom%2Ffcgi%2Dbin%2Fredirurl%2Efcg%3Furl%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Espa%2Egov%2Esa%2F%26qry%3Dsaudi%26rnk%3D4%26cz%3Dc3884269f5a9a7d4%26src%3DDH%5FASK%5FSRCH%26uid%3D03679d669eb2d64d3%26sid%3D1ff90e669eb2d64d3%26u%3D&ac=4&adcat=trvl&pt=Spa+%3F%3F%3F&dm=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Espa%2Egov%2Esa%2F&io=3&qid=A38045CF9EF7C64986897D81416130A3&back=ask%3Dsaudi%26o%3D3033%26x%3D13%26y%3D13&ask=saudi&dt=020730124501&amt=
..... but can�t find it now.
The news was on the official Saudi newsboard (SPA- se link)
The news-bulletin it self is deleted.
The swedish news on TV-text still got it as a head line,
this evening.
Is it not puzzling- and sparks of some thoughts.
NEMO

Jon (07/30/02; 11:17:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 81862)
ATT: ARAGORN - punishment of corporate crime
That is what we are continually hearing from GMB of late. Any comments?

WAC (Wide Awake Club) (07/30/02; 11:15:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 81861)
Banking crisis grips Uruguay
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2162050.stm
Uruguay has closed all of its banks, as the country's economic crisis tightens its stranglehold.
The Central Bank announced that it had suspended all banking operations, in an eerie echo of similar moves that took place in neighbouring Argentina.

In Argentina's case the move was seen as the only practical solution to prevent a run on the banks after consumers lost confidence.

WAC: First Argentina, now Uruguay. Who's next?

Pizz (07/30/02; 11:12:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 81860)
Sierra Madre
Re: Pet Food

Made a deal with my wife, if it gets that bad, she gets to carry the cat food. Then our own food chain goes like this:

We eat the stuff I've got first, the cat second, then the cat food third (it'll keep longer than the cat.)

BTW, your right, 99.9% of the people don't know what hard times are. I'm old enough to remember farmhouses without running water, out houses, and during periods of my father's unemployment, a peanut butter sandwich was a luxury. And right now, some in Argentina would give parts of their body's for this senario.

Let's hope for the best, but as most know here, it's unraveling from the bottom up pretty fast, country by fiat country.

PM stocks and the metal look firm in here. Maybe the big boy's were able to load up enough and cover enough derivitives for the next gold level of 330 - 355. My gut tells me they have, but the PM stocks I watch usually consolidate in pennant triangles, and the ones forming right now are pretty large, so I'm expecting more volitility.

Who knows, in psycho markets like these, coin tosses work about as well as technical and fundamental analysis.

Pizz

sector (07/30/02; 10:57:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 81859)
@ Molly [Sweet Sixteen] Don't Change a Word
The facts regarding precious metals manipulation...
...can be found at http://www.goldensextant.com

The sordid trail of official government corruption in this rig job leads all the way to Alan Greenspan, Lawrence Summers [Chancellor of Harvard University, former Treasury Secretary] President Clinton and both Presidents Bush.

The reason they rig the gold and silver price is to hide inflation and their artificial paper money's weaknesses. They do this by selling US gold bullion to crooks at JP Morgan Chase Bank [JPM]. These crooks then make paper gold and silver and sell it on the gold markets to keep gold down. The rest of the World is happy to buy this cheap gold while the US treasury is drained. Alan Greenspan says we have $11 Billion in gold...it is a lie. His own top lawyer, Mattingky admitted to swaps of gold in official transcripts at the Fed's FOMC committee meetting in Feb 1995 [Available at the link above].

The top crooks have thugs that help them. Goldman Sachs and Citi Bank to name two. Robert Rubin, also a former Secretary of the Treasury is the head of Citi Bank. He was the ring leader along with Summers and they got Clinton to buy off on the rig job. All the "Bubbles" were built upon this single rig.

The people who produce gold as their main export [Sub-Saharan Africa] have been deprived of fair prices. Their economies have been devastated and they face terrible famine and disease. They would have been much better off with fair prices for their gold exports. They would have been able to fend for themselves.

The once great United States of America has been reduced to rigging world markets in order to prosper. It is wrong. You may not appreciate it yet but your letter from your heart will hit Senator Daschele as if it were an H Bomb.

God bless you.

The CoinGuy (07/30/02; 10:53:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 81858)
For Those Interested
CNN will have a feature on the 1933 St. Gaudens coming up for auction. It is coming up next.

The CoinGuy

Sierra Madre (07/30/02; 10:34:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 81857)
Pet food....
The other day I scanned a list of things one should have in preparation for a crisis. Walking shoes, among the stuff. What really caught my eye was "Pet food supply for your pet".

This is amusing. Mister, in a CRISIS, you are not going to feed the pet, you may just wind up EATING him.

A person I knew, now deceased, was a vet in Vienna, Austria, in the winter of 1948, and she used dog grease for cooking. Things were that bad.

The conceptions we have of what a crisis is, are vague. We cannot really conceive of crisis conditions, nor how we are going to handle them. All the preparation in the world, will be of relatively little use, WTSHTF. Of course, we must make preparations for difficult times, regardless.

But - food for the pet...that's one thing I'm not worrying about.

Sierra

PS Maybe a pig would make a good pet.

Gandalf the White (07/30/02; 10:25:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 81856)
OH MOLLY ! AKA "Miss Sweet 16"
May I suggest that you learn to be a little more INVISIBLE, like me. <;-)
Thanks for sharing your letter. (BUT perhaps TOWNIE can edit it for you !!)
Mail Boxes get enough "Junk Mail" !
<;-)

SWEET 16 (07/30/02; 10:15:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 81855)
Goldentrill & Gandalf
Hi Guys,

Sure is hot and dry in South Dakota. How are you doing? My car is being painted pink this week, I am so excited!

I just wrote a letter to my Senator, Mr. Tom Daschle.

tom_daschle@daschle.senate.gov

and want to share it with you. I just wish everyone would write to him and urge him to help us.

Here is my letter:

Mr. Senator Tom Daschle,

I am a 15 year old, soon to be 16, girl living in your state, South Dakota. I am presently, at Dad's persistent urging, trying to understand the markets. He says that if I become good at it, it will enable me to follow my dreams. I want to be an artist. I think he is right, but I am having a problem. You seem like a very smart man and can probably help me out.

Dad has put my savings, Dad calls it my nestegg, into silver stuff (stock and bags of round things). For several years I have been listening, trying to understand him. Lately, he has been jumping up and down angry about what some businesses (they have a bunch of letters instead of names like jpm and cftc) have been doing. Dad says they are crooks and that you are about the only one who can save us. I think he writes to you too.

Mr. Daschle, is it true? Are they crooks? Will you help me? I have lost half of my nest egg and do not know where it went. Maybe you know who is responsible and can make them give it back. It is not theirs. My nest egg started the day I was born when Dad took 18,000 pennies he was saving and started it. We have both been adding to it ever since.

Dad says that most people just won't get involved and if I want to see something happen, I need to make it so (kind of like Captain Picard of Star Trek). Can you make it so?

I have to go mowing now. Thanks for listening.

Yours Truly

Gandalf the White (07/30/02; 10:06:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 81854)
WOWSERS Sir NEMO (me impune lacessit) !!!
ARE you SURE that you do not have a Crystal Ball ?
The Hobbits are very interested in your NEWS Breaking Posts recently, BUT would like to delve into the news a little bit further. Do you have any LINKS to this Saudi news items ??? IF so, please just "Cut and Paste" into the LINK Box on this message posting page, and then the Hobbits can get all the other details also.
THANKS !
<;-)
BTW, any news of the Hobbits card$ playing bud, Saudi Prince Bader?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (07/30/02; 10:00:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 81853)
Put a Foundation Under Your Portfolio
http://www.usagold.com/ProductsPage.html

Get the Legendary SECURITY of a Swiss Account...

...Delivered to Your Door.

Call Centennial for Arrangements
1-800-869-5115

White Rose (07/30/02; 09:56:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 81852)
I do not mind being a "kook", I try to educate as many as I can
I have tried to give accurate information about the state of the economy to others. My brother hates me, and calls be obsessed. He says he will use whatever is left of his S&P index fund retirement account, so shut up. But to others, I try to explain things, often using recent news stories as a basis of explanation. The Enron affair gives a rich range of examples and mataphors.

I do not care if others know who I am, and that I advocate for gold. I have handed out lists of web site to many people. While I am aware that only a very small number may act on the information, it is important to me that many people know the basics. Otherwise, I feel that I have useful information that I am not sharing simply because I am being greedy.

Paper Avalanche (07/30/02; 09:47:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 81851)
The daily moral dilemma
I was at the bank this morning to put my most recent PM purchase in the "safe" deposit box and was speaking with a very nice customer service person who I took the liberty to show one of my gold coins. She then wnet on to say how she has 100% of everything that she has in the stock market. I was then posed with the following internal question: Do I try to implore her to educate herself with respect to market history and suggest that she diversify her holdings to have at least something left over for her retirement years when this whole revaluation is finished? She appeared to be in her early fifties. I then found myself agreeing with her that now is a good time to buy since the markets had lost so much recently. I essentially lied to prevent myself from being seen as a kook. I have been doing that alot recently as I am in sales. I simply pacify those who want positive affirmation that the stock market will always come back and everyone will retire to a life of luxury. I hope that this doesn't get me any closer to hell, purgatory maybe. I do want to scream to the sheeple to break away from the heard, but my own experience tells me that to do so invites ridicule and rebuke. I would be curious to know what the most interesting story each poster on this board has regarding an incident where he/she tried to enlighten another person to what is going on.

Oh well. Back to trying to scrape together some more FRN's to get completely out of debt.

Paper Avalanche

YGM (07/30/02; 09:21:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 81850)
Even The "Enemy"....
Knows Gold was oversold....
GOLDMAN UPS GOLD SECTOR WEIGHTING TO "MARKET OVERWEIGHT" FROM "MARKET
WEIGHT"

GOLDMAN UPS BARRICK GOLD <ABX.TO> RATING TO "TRADING BUY" FROM "MKT
PERFORM"

GOLDMAN UPS FREEPORT-MCMORAN<FCX.N> TO "RECOMMEND LIST" FROM "MKT
OUTPERFORM"

YGM (07/30/02; 09:14:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 81849)
Pizz...
Missed you around here....
Looks like this is the "REAL" time of wild gyrations in markets that the older set of market players and economists speak of when markets are near a crash mode...Looks like some PM players with guts to sell near highs (Sinclairs advice) have done well cause this will could be turnaround Tues and many I know bought back into PM's last Fri...People will need strong will to weather a crash if we get one cause the PM's stocks will go under also at some point and yet will be first for major violent upswing...Now when will the next Dow -400 day come? Me I prefer to live small and just accumulate what little more Physical I can afford...Exciting times for all Gold Believers huh?....Regards...YGM

"GO GATA"

YGM (07/30/02; 09:02:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 81848)
Black Blade (7/30/02; 00:39:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 81829)
Sounds like you're WELL prepared....
and living the life of the best of both worlds...Homesteader and Modern man...Also sounds like you were prepared as I for year 2k which fizzled to naught...I am glad I went thru the Y2K thing for naught...It taught me a good lesson in awareness, plus it started a program that I'll always continue...Being prepared! BTW...as in most foothills areas from Colorado to N'rn Alta we get Deer right in the frontyard almost daily (smiles)...Cheers

Pizz (07/30/02; 07:50:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 81847)
TheCoinGuy
Thanks for the info, going to be some teed off weak holders that either sold or got stopped out.

Such is the game. . . .

Pizz

Cavan Man (07/30/02; 07:46:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 81846)
Headline of the Day
Saw this on an AM run in the St. Louis Post Dispatch (aka the daily circular for the May Co.): "Markets Post Biggest Gain Since '33". That's the point "Dear Reader" as Bill Bonner is wont to say. Comprendez-vous s'il vous plait?

The CoinGuy (07/30/02; 07:33:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 81845)
Pizz
Goldman upgraded the sector to outperform. FWIW, we covered our shorts in this sector last week.

The CoinGuy

Pizz (07/30/02; 07:31:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 81844)
PM Stocks Headded back Up?
Couple of PM stocks are up 15% in premarket.

Probably mid east tension related, going to be fun to see if they can hold gold down over the next two days. Got to keep the derivitive positions controlled for month end???

Stocks usually lead the underlying commodity - we'll see.

Pizz

Pizz (07/30/02; 07:05:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 81843)
It's not just Public Companies
Early last year the owner, in his magnaumus wisdom, quit taking salary as his contribution to company austerity.

We then preceded to cut staff and salaries, and all the "guaranteed" year end bonuses were canceled (mine included).

Late last week I set a trap and caught him in a vendor kickback scheme.

Really great for moral when the owners are willing to pay grossly inflated vendor costs to line their own pockets tax free.

I've only got corporate cash for two months, but Im told not to worry, we're reorganizing. Right. Time to ask him what part of the word "guaranteed" he doesn't understand.

Nice thing, if you can call it that, is that in my position, I usually have notice, in one way or another of my impending addition to the bone pile.

Time to start looking for a stronger company that may need some help trying to survive the next few years. Hmm, maybe a chain of used horse lots??? (smile)

Just love anticipating a yelling and screaming boss as I give notice right before crunch time. Better to give ulcers rather than recieve them. . . . . .

Pizz

misetich (07/30/02; 06:28:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 81842)
Our Banana Republics
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/07/30/opinion/30KRUG.html
Snip:

By PAUL KRUGMAN

New Jersey has always been a good state for scandals,
.............

The other -- further revelations about the way dishonest budgeting by former Gov. Christie Whitman crippled the state's finances -- has dire implications for all of the state's eight million people, who face the prospect of higher taxes on their houses, more potholes in their roads, fewer teachers in their children's classrooms and worse medical care for their parents. This story received no national coverage at all.

Experts already knew that the Whitman administration had used creative accounting to justify a series of tax cuts. Last year New Jersey Policy Perspective, a local think tank, released a study of fiscal policies in the 1990's titled "Take the Money and Run." Among other things, the state stopped contributing to its pension funds. This made the budget look a lot better, but created a financial hole. In an attempt to fill that hole Governor Whitman violated the basic principles of pension funds by having them engage in stock arbitrage, borrowing money to speculate on the market.

Now the state's taxpayers must make up for an investment loss of $22 billion, most of a year's tax receipts. But don't cry for New Jersey; Mrs. Whitman wasn't alone in her misbehavior.

As the current issue of Business Week explains, the pension time bomb involves large numbers; I'd say it's the equivalent of at least 50 WorldComs.

Furthermore, Mrs. Whitman's policies were by no means the worst among the states. That honor may fall to Tennessee, though Alabama, where a cash crunch stopped all jury trials for awhile, may run a close second.

The fact is that in recent years many states have been run like banana republics. Responsibility gave way to political opportunism, and in some cases to mob rule. When Tennessee considered a tax increase last year, legislators were intimidated by a riot stirred up by radio talk-show hosts. Only when lack of cash forced the governor to lay off half the work force did the state, which has the second-lowest per capita taxes in the country, face up to reality.

The only reason Tennessee doesn't look like Argentina right now is that it isn't a sovereign nation; since the federal budget was in good shape until recently, there's a safety net. And the federal budget was in pretty good shape because the Clinton administration, unlike state governments, behaved responsibly. Budget projections were honest -- if anything, too cautious -- and boom-year surpluses were used to reduce debt.

But the responsibility era is over. Even as state governments face up to the consequences of cooked books in the 1990's, the Bush administration is following in their footsteps.

The latest antics of the White House Office of Management and Budget have even the most hardened cynics shaking their heads. It's not just that projections for fiscal 2002 have gone from a $150 billion surplus to a $165 billion deficit in the space of a few months; it's not just that the O.M.B. projects a much smaller deficit next year, when everyone else -- including the Republican staff of the Senate Budget Committee -- says the deficit will increase. It's also the fact that O.M.B officials simply lie about what their own report says.

"The recession erased two-thirds of the projected 10-year surplus. . . . The tax cut, which economists credit for helping the economy recover, generated less than 15% of the change." So reads the agency's press release. Yet as the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities points out, the actual report attributes 40 percent of the budget deterioration to tax cuts, only 10 percent to recession. Maybe dishonesty in the defense of tax cuts is no vice.

State governments turned into banana republics in part because voters didn't realize that a charming, personable chief executive can also be an irresponsible opportunist, seeking political advantage through policies that ensure a fiscal crisis on someone else's watch. Now the same governing style has moved to Washington. And this time there's no safety net.

..............

Misetich

Lets stay tuned and wait patiently as the Bubble continues to deflate

Got gold?

misetich (07/30/02; 06:19:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 81841)
JP Morgan Turns Bullish
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=580&ncid=580&e=18&u=/nm/20020730/bs_nm/financial_jpmorgan_dc_2
Snip:

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - JP Morgan Securities has moved to an overweight position on global equities from neutral due to attractive valuations and is underweight in bonds and cash.
"Previously, equities in all global regions have been expensive.
On our earnings/bond yield models, world equity markets are now cheap," the securities house said in a July 29 strategy report from London.

"Even based on our conservative earnings expectations, we now see 15-20 percent upside to global markets to reach our end-of-year fair values."
............
"Any inflation fears have dissipated. The probability of rate cuts, rather than rate tightening is rising," it said.

Misetich

Japan's economy is in recession
US jobless recovery is anemic - earnings for 2nd Qtr are up 1% from same period a year ago
Europe consumer confidence is pointing downwards
Latin America economy is in crisis mode

Why then is JP Morgan so bullish?
" The probability of rate cuts, rather than rate tightening is rising," it said.

Eleven rate cuts, tax cuts, government spending hasn't aided corporate earnings or spending - unemployment is rising - consumer confidence is waning

Got gold?

misetich (07/30/02; 06:08:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 81840)
US Chain Stores Sales Fall
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=580&ncid=580&e=10&u=/nm/20020730/bs_nm/economy_retail_btm_dc_1
Snip

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Sales at U.S. chain stores fell last week as consumers guarded their wallets, reversing the previous week's sales gains, a report on Tuesday showed.

U.S. chain store sales fell 0.4 percent in the week ended July 27 after a 0.4 percent rise in the previous week, the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi and UBS Warburg reported in their Weekly Chain Store Sales Snapshot.

Those stores include J.C. Penney, Sears, Target, Kmart, Wal-Mart, Federated Department Stores Inc. and May Department Stores Co. The BTM/UBSW index measures sales growth with the year 1977 equaling 100.

Misetich

Lets stay tuned and follow the US jobless economic recovery in progress

Got gold?

misetich (07/30/02; 05:29:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 81839)
U.K. Split-Capital Trust Investors See Their Savings Collapse
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APUZSuRXpVS5LLiBT
Snip:

By David Clarke

London, July 30 (Bloomberg) -- British investors are reeling from holdings in funds called split-capital trusts, which attracted about 10 billion pounds ($15.6 billion) in the 1990s. Some of the trusts are now almost worthless.

Aberdeen Asset Management Plc yesterday picked receivers to close Aberdeen High Income Trust Plc, which had about 195 million pounds of assets at its peak in June 2000, because the fund can't meet bank payments. Trading in Yeoman Investment Trust Plc was suspended, the 11th fund in two months to halt operations after its stock lost 95 percent of its value over the past 12 months.

``My wife was told by an adviser these things were cheap as chips and safe as houses,'' said Nick Harvey, an information technology consultant in London. His family put about 250,000 pounds in split-capital trusts including BFS Investment Plc's Geared Income Investment Trust Plc. The investment is now worth ``next to nothing,'' he said.

Misetich

Nick Harvey and investors like him believed the cheerleading of people like Greenspan

-innocent investors who believed all the nonsense are paying the price - defrauded by crooks

Will the Nick Harveys' return to the stock market?

Got gold?

misetich (07/30/02; 05:18:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 81838)
Qwest Accounting Lapse May Lead to Bankruptcy, Investors Say
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APUZT1xXdUXdlc3Qg
Snip:

Chief Executive Richard Notebaert is selling the phone-book unit to cut debt and avoid violating a $3.39 billion bank loan at year-end. Accounting mistakes may slow a sale or reduce proceeds from the business, valued at as much as $10 billion, investors said. Qwest may be unable to repay debt as demand slows for the long-distance network it built with borrowed funds, they said.

...................
Misetich

Debt defaults - is it the achilli of the "new economy"?

Got gold?

Black Blade (07/30/02; 04:46:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 81837)
"Scandal Of The Day" - Qwest Insiders Made Millions
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020730/tech_qwest_report_8.html

Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Executives at Qwest Communications International (NYSE:Q - News) made about $500 million selling company stock from 1999 to 2001, as the company was releasing results it now says were exaggerated and based on improper accounting, The New York Times reported on Tuesday.

Black Blade: Now this could raise a few red flags. I smell a Congressional hearing with more CEOs and CFOs pleading the fifth.

Black Blade (07/30/02; 04:31:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 81836)
Market Indicators
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp

Gold is up a couple of bucks, the USD is sliding again, petroleum prices are higher, and market index futures are lower. Looks like another "entertaining" day on Wall Street. The Pimps, Trolls, Pied Pipers and other Wall Street primates will surely be out thumping their chests on CNBC, CNNfn, and Bloomberg today.

- Black Blade

Black Blade (07/30/02; 04:21:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 81835)
Breaking News

Just across the wire - another bombing in Jerusalem resulting in numerous casualties. No details yet. Earlier two Israelis were shot and killed near Nablus while delivering fuel for sale. It appears that the war is about to heat up again between the Israelis and Palestinians. Expect more counter attacks by the Israelis and more attacks by the Palestinians.

- Black Blade

Black Blade (07/30/02; 04:00:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 81834)
The Barbarous Relic Files - Rumors of buried gold draw treasure hunters, even to downtown parking lots
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020730/ap_wo_en_po/taiwan_urban_gold_rush_1

Snippit:

TAIPEI, Taiwan - Rumors die hard, especially where supposedly buried treasure is involved. In dozens of places across the island, treasure hunters are digging for gold and other booty they believe Japanese troops buried before their hurried retreat from Taiwan after World War II. One of the most unusual digs is going on in a parking lot just blocks from the Presidential Office, where a backhoe spews smoke into the night air as its claws crack through the asphalt. The dig was the idea of a mysterious and grumpy retiree who only gives his surname, Yang, and claims to be a former air force officer. After getting government approval to start prospecting for the gold, Yang attracted little attention until China Times Weekly magazine did a story recently and prompted a media frenzy. "Go away, you're disturbing us," Yang recently said as he shooed reporters from the site.

Black Blade: Sure is a lot of work to look for a "barbarous relic". Hmmm...

Black Blade (07/30/02; 03:37:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 81833)
Not A Good Start - Pathetic Showing Of Confidence Of US Corporate Executives
http://www.sec.gov/rules/extra/ceocfo.htm

CEOs and CFOs of 945 major corporations are required to personally vouch for and sign off on their corporate financial statements by August 14th (see link for the list). So far only 9 have (that's less than 1%). If they are found to be lying they will be prosecuted. Yesterday Qwest said "oops! We made a clerical error -- we need more time". They overstated earnings ane will restate earnings for the last three years!!! I think that we could see more of this. Hmmm...

- Black Blade

Black Blade (7/30/02; 03:07:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 81832)
State seeks crisis talks with mining industry stakeholders
http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?click_id=343&art_id=ct20020730062950535P263457&set_id=60

Snippit:

Johannesburg - The government called an urgent meeting of stakeholders in the mining industry today after the leaking of its empowerment proposals - aimed at giving black business 51 percent control of all new mines - again wreaked havoc with mining stocks yesterday. Andile Mazwai, the chief executive of Mazwai Securities, said: "From what is outlined in the leaked charter document it is not unjustified to see the market fall this much. It puts forward a strong agenda on redistribution but with very little on how this will be achieved. "Investors value stocks based on their future earnings but mining companies may now have lost a degree of comfort to start new projects," Mazwai explained.

Black Blade: This is "interesting" news. Whether there is any substance to the proposal or not, the fact that it was even discussed should be of concern. The stock markets are fickle enough without ominous threats of government forcing a major change such as this. Stock markets are heavily influenced by rumor. I had sold off my Gold Fields when they applied to have the option to dilute their shares by as much as 20% (21 million shares), and I had whittled down my Harmony shares taking profits. However, on Friday I cleaned out the remaining shares. I am outta Africa, there are other companies around the world just as good where sane governments have control. Harmony is a good company with excellent management and has been very profitable to me, but I just don't need the aggravation of these latest revelations especially with the defiant "Mugabe-like" attitude of SA Mining Development Association. There are other fish to fry.

NEMO me impune lacessit (7/30/02; 02:39:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 81831)
Saudi-prince
Prince Fahd bin Turki bin Saud al-Kabir dead in the desert.
Died from thirst - they say.

NEMO me impune lacessit (7/30/02; 02:30:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 81830)
(No Subject)
3:rd Saudi-prince dead in a week.

Black Blade (7/30/02; 00:39:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 81829)
Re: YGM -- Food Storage

Actually as I am currently sitting atop the "Bone Pile", I have been living off of my food storage, fishing, trust distribution and dividend checks. Putting together a good storage program is actually kinda fun and you can always try to get a bit innovative about it too. I could sit back for a couple of years supplementing my stores with wild game. Of course I came to the conclusion that storing up for lean times after being in the "boom-bust" natural resource industry for a few years. As the energy and mining industry is likely to be shutdown more or less for a couple of years I decided to bide my time with hunting, fishing, and working out until the boom cycle begins again.

I have dry goods such as navy beans, kidney beans, and rice in large 5 gallon plastic sealable containers. There are also pasta noodles and even ramen noodles. Before you close them up you could place some dry ice on the top to help preserve and protect the product. I also have several canned goods like sweet corn, chili, tuna, salmon, stew, beef, various vegetables and fruits. I also have everything from light bulbs, candles, toiletries, soap, etc. I usually replace a little at a time as I find a case lot of a particular item on sale. Many people have access to a warehouse type store like Costco or Sam's for example.

Fortunately I have prepared financially and for the most basic necessities like food. I continually stress the importance of preparation -- therefore my constant advice to "get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough cash for several months expenses, to get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and to start a storage program for nonperishable food and basic necessities". I have no debt and plenty of cash for expenses. In spite of having no business right now -- "Life is good". It does not take much to realize that most people would not be able to last very long if they were to suddenly have no income. Most are burdened with debt, have no stores of food or basic goods, and have very limited cash reserves. They would use up whatever investments they have tucked away and then the real pain begins. It is especially disturbing when they have families to take care of. The Argentines and now Japanese are current examples of what can happen. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Nomad (7/30/02; 00:11:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 81828)
Oil Iraq War
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/07/30/international/30COST.html

Last Nov. 13, a month after the United States began bombing Afghanistan to dislodge the Taliban and Al Qaeda, the president's advisers debated whether Iraq should be the focus of phase two of the campaign against terrorism. Mr. Bush directed Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham to add more than 100 million barrels to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Since Jan. 1, oil shipments into the reserve have reached record levels, about 150,000 barrels a day. One oil strategist in London noted that United States government acquisitions for the reserve were accounting for more than half of the growth in demand for oil this year.

Nomad :

I know everyone feels bad about the drop in the price in gold ... and you can include me on that list as I lost a bundle these last days. But one of the things I noted in the last few months is that, other than the one day wonder bump just before the last drop, the gold price mostly went up when war tensions were highest in India-Pak. Tensions eased, gold dropped. Now we are setting up for round 2. I would have to say I am waiting for the price to drop more. I want to get in again at a lower price because I believe that now (July/August) is just a temporary lull in the storm and that the next few months have the potential to be devastating worldwide.

I don't have a crystal ball, but it is obvious to me that Little Bush is going full speed ahead with his Saddam vendetta, in spite of most of the world telling him it's not a good idea.

I know some of you are fans of astrology, and I am too. However, I believe that it is not so useful for telling the future, but it is quite useful for determining the overall personality characterisitics of individuals. As a lark I looked up Bush in my favorite book and at the end of each of the personality outlines in this book it has 2 short lines summarizing the very Best personality characteristic and the very Worst personality characteristic of that person.

For Bush, they are BOTH the same ...

it says ' Gets His Way !'

:)

YGM (07/30/02; 00:00:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 81827)
Read on another Message Board
"Corning"... today was relegated to Junk Bond Status...
by S&P and Moody's....Probably many more to follow suit...

ViewYesterday's Discussion.

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