ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 6/30/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Zhisheng
(06/30/02; 22:50:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 79563)
Nomad's China
Nomad,
I enjoyed your China piece. Hope we see more such in the future. I lived there for a time years ago, and have become a bit out of touch with the economic situation there, but what you wrote is certainly consistent with what I do know.
YGM
(06/30/02; 22:36:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 79562)
Nomad....
Thanks that was very interesting......
It's not often one gets a look inside from a westerners point of view w/o buying a book....Now I'm left wondering what Soros might think of as a good investment in China. Energy, Mines,?? You can bet it will make him richer because as I've said he's a Bilderberger and in the know with the Upstairs Crowd (borrowed phrase from Christian)
.....Whatever...China "IS" the next frontier for making the "Gnomes of Zurich" richer. Maybe they'll have their own 70% European owned Central Bank system in China one day, & just have to give the Godless Commie Leaders the other 30%. How many Billion depositors was that? 1.3? :>}
..........YGM.
Nomad
(06/30/02; 22:24:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 79561)
One last China thought ...
I think one of the biggest incentives for China to behave itself over the next few years is the 2008 Olympics. This is an umbelievably important opportunity for them. We in the west view the Olympics as yet another sports event, but for the Chinese, it's a chance to showcase their country and I think they will do nothing whatsoever to jeopardize that chance.
On the flip side, though ... once all the hoopla is over, if the problems in China are near as bad as I think they may be, pay spcial attention to the one or two years after 2008 as they could see the biggest changes in the county's political stance.
JMO
Nomad
Nomad
(06/30/02; 22:12:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 79560)
China Financial Update
I'm taking YGM' advice (thanks) and posting a bit on what I see currently in China from and economic and Gold standpoint ...
As most of you know China recently was accepted into the WTO. While most locals here originally saw this as a positive step, feelings are beginning to change as the high cost of compliance and the opening of previously closed markets is beginning to dawn on business and government.
By far the vast majority of Chinese are farmers, and a principal tenet of the new agreement is the expansion of imported agriculture products. This will devastate the locals most of home are quite poor and farm at basically a subsistence/organic level. The increased market penetration by huge agri-business concerns (especially those supported through massive farm susidies like in the USA) are going to result in something approaching economic warfare and possibly approaching genocide ??? as approximately half a billion chinese struggle to find a new way to support themselves.
Even now the government has relaxed the decades old 'hukou' (residence permit) system allowing freedom of movement much the same as in western countries. The problem with all of this new found freedom is that dispossesed farmers will have no where to go except to the already large cities.
Fortunately the godless Communists (joke) were at least smart enough to pass the 'one child' policy about 20 years back and this will turn what once would have been a completely hopeless situation, into one which may have the potential for averting a major crisis.
So, in a nutshell, problem number one is the effect increased competition from the more efficient west will have on the technologically backward huge population of lao-tar (country people).
Problem number two is the banks. Chinese banks have, for the last ten or twelve years engaged in a practice of basically giving loans to anyone who wants them .... especially real estate loans. This has resulted in a construction boom, the like of which I have never seen before. In my home city as an example, there are still new (huge) buildings being constructed on a daily basis all over the city. Every available square block is being shorn of it's old brick shacks and replaced with modern tall apartment and business complexes. The problem is ... no body can afford to live in them. The vacancy rate for housing and business buildings in this city has to approach better than 50-75 percent, and yet the building continue to pop up like mushrooms. And since the banks are government backed, NONE of the RE loans are being repaid, or EVER will be repaid.
So who is paying for all this ? The answer is the government backed banks. And the main reason they can get away with all this insanity is that the Chinese currency (the RMB) is not convertible. Which means the banks are insolvent to a degree unimaginable in the west.
Unfortuately, full implementation of WTO will force the baks and the government to 'fess up' resulting in some massive financial problems starting in about 3 or 4 years when full implementation of WTO opens the financial markets to western finance companies.
Problem number three is the global economy. The reason that most Chinese look up to and respect the west is simple : this is where ALL the money in China comes from. ALL of the successful people in China have made there money from either the bank/real estate scam, OR from low-cost manufacturing of cheap goods, shoes, clothes, etc. When was the last time we of the west ever wore a shirt, or shoes or used a tool that was made in our own countries ??? Not in a decade at least, because ALL of it is made in China. The end result is that China is the drug supplier (cheap goods) and we, in the West are the addicts who are hooked. There is NO possible way for China and the west to have any kind of prolonged disagreement as both sides are tied to each other by economic bonds so tight that any suggestion of
breaking them would wreak havoc on all.
Adding to China's problems now is the very real possibility of a prolonged economic slump (depression/recession) in the west. The result of which is that China's economy will suffer even more than the west in such a situation as the lifeblood of China bound hand and foot to the continued consumption binge by citizens of the west. Poor economic conditions in the west aggravate greatly China's current and future social problems.
In my opinion, China has reached it's current economic peak. Over the next few years, barring a renewed western economic situation, China will slip further in economic power, and in about 4-8 years could reach a flash point where lots of internal problems are redirected to have an external focus.
There is nothing new to this concept, 'leaders' have
always used the possibility of war/conflict to redirect attention away from internal social problems to a much more politically expedient 'enemy'. Witness Dubya and hi dad, they're experts at this particular game. Look for China to do the same. Unfortunate, but likely.
Based on this scenario, I hope to be able to stay here for the a few more years, then I feel I will be forced to move my family to safer zones, of which I cannot include the USA. I think problems there will be as bad or worse. Not a good alternative.
One last word in regards to gold. While I have spoken on this subject to many here, it is a 'new' idea to most and I do not see it taking much affect until the possibility of free exchange of the RMB currency occcurs. At that point all bets are off. The black market has been suppressed in the last year by the goverment being willing to compete by upping the legal rate to shut the BM down. Look for it revive dramatically and the possibility of an explosion of gold ownership when (not if) the Chinese lose faith in the RMB. The plunge in the dollar over the last few months has begun this process, as the Chinese just like other foreigners have considered the dollar the ultimate safe haven. Obviously that is no more. I see a role for gold in a few years, but not now. The upside of all this is, of course, that when gold does begin to play a major role here (and I am sure it will, eventually) having these huge inflows into the market (1.3 billion is a LOT of potential buyers), it should truly explode.
Just a note from the far east, with my opinions. Take them with a grain of salt (as even I do :)
Nomad
Black Blade
(06/30/02; 21:01:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 79559)
Russians Turning to Surging Euro
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2002/07/01/045.html
Snippit:
Staff Writer With the euro surging to two-year highs against the U.S. dollar, the ruble and Central Bank reserves are sliding in value and some panicky Russians are switching to the euro. On the back of scandals swirling around U.S. giants WorldCom and Xerox Corp., the euro peaked at 99.90 cents to the dollar on Friday, its highest level against the U.S. currency since February 2000. A handful of banks, anticipating a further strengthening of the euro, started selling euros last week at rates equal to or higher than the dollar.
"The demand for euros has increased dramatically over the past several days," said a cashier with the EnergoSberBank currency exchange office on Pyatnitskaya Ulitsa, which has one of the highest rates for euros in town, according to business information service RosBusinessConsulting. EnergoSberBank was selling 1 euro for 31.9 rubles on Friday, while its dollar rate was set at 31.57 rubles. "Demand is exceeding supply and Russian banks are having difficulties meeting it," the cashier said. "As you might guess, people are making orders for quite significant amounts, as it is not a problem to change $100 for euros if you are going on vacation."
Black Blade: Even Russians want euros. They would likely be better off to accumulate gold.
Black Blade
(06/30/02; 20:51:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 79558)
Asia Starts Off Negative
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u
Asia begins the week in the red. The tech heavy Taiwan index is getting a thrashing tonight. Japan is slightly negative (perhaps due to market intervention and the weakening Yen). Also, the rumor is that Russia is adopting the euro as a larger reserve holding over the US dollar. This could be the beginning of a trend. Several ME oil producers are questioning the wisdom of pricing oil in dollars now. This could get "interesting".
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(06/30/02; 20:43:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 79557)
Mixed Indicators
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
Gold is lower, USD lower, Oil lower, and Market Index Futures lower. Looks like it is shaping up to be another "entertaining" day on Wall Street.
- Black Blade
sector
(06/30/02; 20:41:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 79556)
$USD Edging Below 106
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/chart.cgi?s=NYBOT_DXY0&t=f&w=1&a=1&v=s
Expect the assault on gold to continue this week.
Use it to load up.
Find solace in the steeply plunging, unsupported European stock markets.
Black Blade
(06/30/02; 20:36:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 79555)
Re: Canuck - House of Mirrors - Stephen Roach (New York)
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20020627-thu.html#anchor0
Canuck, you're lucky the link is still up.
Snippit:
Lest I be accused of piling on, read no further if you're looking for the next WorldCom. I don't have a clue. But I do know that Corporate America is not alone in cooking its books. Washington statisticians seem poised to join the restatement sweepstakes with a stunning rewrite of the recent performance of the US economy. So much for the boom!
Each July, when many of us head to the beach, the guys with the green eyeshades are hard at work in Washington. They are compiling the so-called benchmark revision of the national economic statistics -- an annual restatement of recent economic history based largely on more complete (and presumably more accurate) samples of underlying activity. This particular benchmark revision is slated to be released on 31 July. Mark that day on your calendar.
There are already some important straws in the wind that hint at what can be expected in the upcoming benchmark revision of the national statistics -- a significant downward adjustment to GDP growth over the three-year revision period, 1999-2001. The government actually pre-releases some of the source data that form the basis of this statistical exercise. Based on this intelligence, downward revisions are likely on three fronts -- capital spending, foreign trade in services, and personal income.
Rest assured of one thing -- these downward revisions are not likely to be trivial. For example, shipments of nondefense capital goods are now estimated to have increased only 5% in 2000, half the previously estimated 10% gain. In addition, the surplus in services trade for 2001 was lowered by more than 10%, from $79 billion to $69. Moreover, the reductions in private wage and salary disbursements could be at least $100 billion in 2000, enough to slice more than one percentage point off the growth rate of total personal income. The precise magnitude of the revisions, insofar as their impact on overall GDP growth is concerned, is hard to determine at this point. The real GDP growth rates of record currently stand at 4.1% for both 1999 and 2000. Based on back-of-the-envelope calculations, it wouldn't surprise me at all if aggregate growth were lowered by at least one percentage point in either or both of these years.
Black Blade: Very "interesting" reading and a lot is said between the lines (if you get my drift). This years revisions could be, shall I say "stunning". If the BLS doesn't jerk us around, we could see some fireworks over this one.
Mr Gresham
(06/30/02; 20:34:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 79554)
Canuck: Roach
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20020627-thu.html#anchor0
Is this it?
Mr Gresham
(06/30/02; 20:31:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 79553)
Contrary Investor
http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm
Their free page is up for July -- I still haven't gotten to the June one -- I usually don't give an excerpt because the whole thing is such a good view of the large economic picture, kind of hard to pick one phrase out once I'm into the whole thing -- now off to read that, and Noland...
Canuck
(06/30/02; 20:22:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 79552)
Roach's latest
I haven't seen a posting of Stephan Roach's article detailing the July 31st restatements.
Does anyone have that link?
TIA
Black Blade
(06/30/02; 20:14:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 79551)
HK Closed, Tokyo Open - Gold Down
I almost expected to see Gold drop when the Tokyo market opened and since Hong Kong is closed it's easy for Gold opponents to push the price ahead of European trading in order to set market sentiment. Also, the Japanese are extremely desperate to strengthen the US dollar as they are nothing more than a factory on a couple of islands. They have no resources. They assemble trinkets for exports and that is all they have. They must have the weaker currency to stem the losses of their export driven share of the global market. It is an act of desperation that will likely fail. They are simply flushing billions of Yen down the crapper. When it all ends, we could easily see the POG rebound sharply.
- Black Blade
mikal
(06/30/02; 19:28:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 79550)
@a nation of one
Nice post! A perusal of revisionist history of modern South Africa and the role of the Dutch(& German) Boors provides some valuable and documented perspectives. S. Africa was considered uninhabited(or very sparsely populated). The blacks were immigrants from either remote or neighboring lands, becoming citizens and sharing many rights and privaleges unheard of in many countries. The British drove out the Boors with their advanced weaponry and concentration camps, bringing greater segregation, discrimination and their own version of history that our public schools are fed to this day.
Black Blade
(06/30/02; 18:44:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 79549)
Accounting concerns focus on GE
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_2076000/2076235.stm
Snippit:
With every major US corporation apparently now in the crosshairs of investors suspicious about accounting practices, the spotlight is now in US industrial and financial icon General Electric. The company, nursed to near-legendary status by former chief executive Jack Welch, reportedly made $2.1bn (£1.4bn) in profits from its pension fund in 2000 and 1999 - despite the fact that the fund has been losing money thanks to sliding stock markets.
The practice has become common among large corporations, and helps them to meet Wall Street's expectations for earnings, but it is now coming under fire amid the hailstorm of criticism directed at US corporations' accounting practices. Billionaire investor Warren Buffett, for one, has said that GE, General Motors, Exxon and other heroes of USA Inc are basing their pension fund profit contributions on "pretty heroic assumptions" about future performance.
Black Blade: The next "Scandal Of The Day"? It looks ugly, however, I had warned of this type of scandalous bookkeeping as well. Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT) has been an ardent defender of this corrupt practice. Of course don't expect to see this on CNBC as the network is owned by GE. Who was the auditor? Could it be Arthur Andersen? Hmmm…
YGM
(06/30/02; 18:43:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 79548)
AYN RAND'S HYMN TO MONEY..............Antal Fekete
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_02/fekete070102.html
Excerpts:
The Only Substitute for Gold Money is the Muzzle of the Gun
Run for your life from anyone who tells you that money is evil. That sentence is the leper's bell of an approaching looter. So long as men live together on earth and need means to deal with one another - their only substitute, if they abandon money, is the muzzle of the gun.
Excerpt:
Paper Money Is Mortgage on Wealth That Doesn't Exist
Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying gold money, for it is man's protection, and the base of a moral existence. Destroyers seize gold and leave to its owners a counterfeit pile of paper. This kills all objective standards and delivers men into the arbitrary power of an arbitrary setter of values. Gold is an objective value, an equivalent of wealth produced. Paper money is mortgage on wealth that does not exist, backed by guns aimed at those who are expected to produce. Paper money is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it bounces, marked: "account overdrawn".
When you have made evil the means of survival, do not expect men to remain good. Do not expect them to stay moral and to become fodder for the immoral. Do not expect them to produce when production is punished and looting rewarded. Do not ask who is destroying the world. You are.
Black Blade
(06/30/02; 18:29:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 79547)
The Big Picture About To Be Revealed?
Not long ago I had said watch for the revision of GDP data on July 31st (on one of the recent DGMR's?). Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley suggests investors should mark July 31st on their calendars. This is when benchmark economic statistics are supposedly going to be revised on the basis of more complete and accurate stats. And according to Roach, the revision this year is likely to result in "a significant downward adjustment to GDP growth over the three-year revision period, 1999-2001." This data will impact capital spending, foreign trade in services, and personal income. Roach expects these to be significant downward revisions. However, I don't trust those clowns at the BLS. If they are honest (and I have no reason to expect this to be the case), then we will see huge downward revisions. Curiously there are a missing half million workers from the "non-farm" employment rolls over the last 6 months. Where did they go and why are they not counted? Back to the Roach assessment, he expects to see capital spending over the last couple of years revised downward, serious revisions to the trade surplus numbers, and a $100 Billion downward revision for personal income. We could see a real shocker on July 31, however, don't be surprised if there is a lot of positive accompanying spin and possibly even massaged data. Still, keep this date marked on your calendars.
- Black Blade
The USD looks like it is weakening a bit again. It will be difficult to get a look idea until Europe trades as Hong Kong is closed for reunification celebrations.
YGM
(06/30/02; 17:56:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 79546)
Positive note for Mining in China......
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200206/29/eng20020629_98779.shtml
China Welcomes Foreign Investors in Gold Mining
China welcomes foreign investment in its gold production, according to an official with the State Economic and Trade Commission (SETC).
China welcomes foreign investment in its gold production, according to an official with the State Economic and Trade Commission (SETC).
Cheng Fumin, head of a gold administrative bureau under the SETC, made the statement at the Sino-South Africa trade fair on gold production and technology held in Zhaoyuan City of east China's Shandong Province.
China formally lifted the ban on foreign investment in gold production in March this year.
China's gold production technology and management is backward compared with major gold production countries in the world, so it is eager to introduce advanced technologies and management expertise, Cheng said.
The country now has gold reserves of 4,000 tons, of which about1,000 tons cannot be developed with China's current technology, but could be with advanced biological technologies already being used by other countries, he said.
China's industrial and public demand for gold far exceeds the country's own production. Local gold enterprises badly need good management and sales expertise. Both these factors offer vast opportunities to overseas investors, Cheng said.
The trade fair is jointly sponsored by the Gold Association of China, the Ministry of Trade and Industry of South Africa and the city government of Zhaoyuan, the most important gold mining area in China.
Over 30 South Africa businesses, including its largest gold enterprise, Gold Fields Limited, took part in the three-day event.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
** Yup, just call "all those who think" the peaceful, gentle, intellegent, hard working race of a few Billion oppressed peoples can or will change the mindset and historical pattern of their leadership 'delusional'.
Personaly I'd worry more about the Nations who control peoples in the name of God than those who worship Budda.I cannot imagine how the masses of Chinese peoples can be held back forever. The 21st century may just bring many changes unforeseen in the 20th....And there may be more good change than bad in those who've adhered to the Communist doctrine for so long.
Time moves change very slowly for some parts of this world, but it moves nonetheless.....I prefer to remain the eternal optimist and when, after all else fails and the time comes to stand and fight, my Guns are cleaned and loaded....
.......FWIW......YGM.
a nation of one
(06/30/02; 17:26:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 79545)
South Africa
tedw stated in message 79524: "The new law will require companies now mining in South Africa to apply to the bureaucracy to have their "old order rights" converted into "new order rights" While the head of mining regulation in S. Africa says that all companies are expected to win approval, there is still much fear and uncertainty. The SA constitution requires the state to pay compensation for expropriated property, but many questions remain regarding how this will apply to the new bill. The bill is vague on to what extent existing property mineral rights are really "property" in a legal sense.
Remarks: It is interesting that the new government in South Africa is manifesting its character in ways that show up on this forum, by putting into effect laws which would nullify previously acceptable concepts of private property, and that these impact gold. It seems clear to me that white South Africa was a colony founded on the African continent by white Europeans, initially for the purpose of making the most of natural resources, but ultimately also as a means of expanding our genetic pool, as many different peoples tend to do, and which has earned its validity in the pragmatic nature of the world. What we are seeing then, if this is correct, is the failure of that colonization, or at least its compromise, ostensibly by the efforts of the aboriginal people there, who are imposing their own values onto the white colonists in the form of laws. The significant thing, in my opinion, is that they did not wrest the power to do so away from those who were already in power, but that the colonists themselves stepped aside because they felt it gallant or morally -or politically- necessary to do so, and thereby gave their power away to those from whom their ancestors had originally siezed it. In other words, what is happening in South Africa is with the consent of the whites, not because the whites there have been defeated by a superior physical force. The force that is defeating them is philosophical and involves their own mute acquiesence. Whereas outspoken moralists tend to favor universal freedom and equality for all, I will be surprised if there is not some argument to be found which will exempt the gold industry -and some other industries as well- from such delicate niceties.
JJ
(06/30/02; 17:06:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 79544)
Gold @ $270 ??
Well, unfortunately it looks as though I was right about the weakness in gold/gold stocks - not that I can take credit for the prediction, I was just repeating what I'd read.
Now it looks as if $270 is possible.
jinx44
(06/30/02; 15:43:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 79543)
COMMUNIST CHINA---Nomad
China is a godless marxist dictatorship. Their avowed purpose is to destroy the west. We ignore that at our direct peril. All the mushy thinkers here that equate the individual chinese peasant with the stated aims of the communist regime that rules the country are deluding themselves, as they always do. The problem is, their delusions will help defeat us as a nation, just to make them feel better about themselves. Useful idiots is how Marx referred to them. Cheers mate.
Jon
(06/30/02; 15:29:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 79542)
Black Blade msg 79520
CNN reported this afternoon that suspect is a contract firefighter and not a Govt employee.
USAGOLD
(06/30/02; 14:57:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 79541)
Add on to last post. . . .
I pulled the $100 figure out of the air -- to make my point, so don't take it the wrong way. I can't envision anyone on this planet having the muscle to force that low a price. In fact, I think we've already seen the lows on gold; the damage in the mining industry may have already been done; and, large quantities of the physical taken down by both the Giants and the rest of us -- in all areas of the globe. I agree with Soros that the dollar is headed much lower -- just on a cyclical basis. Can you imagine an odder circumstance? Here we have the currency of one country (the United States) being defended by another country's central bank (Japan). To me that's indicative of the craziness now becoming part of our daily fare. It's becoming all too evident that something is drastically wrong in the world economy -- that the Dark Vision is probably the right vision (unfortunately) -- and when people like Soros are going public with it you can bet the words follow some heavy guage market bets. (Misetech: Should we count the Soros article as his entry into the contest??) Financier turned philanthropist. Give me a break. Hold onto the gold and buy on the dips. . . . .We had a surge of business on Friday as the price dropped. No amount of on-stage market theatrics can disguise what's going on behind the camera. We expect demand to continue running high given what's going on around the world.
By the way, I want to thank all our participants for the best contest to date. We are working diligently behind the scenes to try to sort out the winners. We have the best posters on the internet right here at USAGOLD. It is extraordinary. . . .as someone so accurately pointed out here the other day.
Black Blade
(06/30/02; 14:51:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 79540)
No Record of Martha's Claim
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/020630/martha_stewart_imclone_1.html
Probe Finds No Record of Sell Order Between Martha Stewart and Broker
Snippit:
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Congressional investigators reviewing documents concerning Martha Stewart 's sale of ImClone stock have found no credible record of an arrangement with her broker to dump her shares when the stock fell below a certain price, according to a magazine report. House Energy and Commerce Committee investigators are examining whether Stewart had inside information when she sold nearly 4,000 shares of ImClone on Dec. 27 and have obtained her account through her lawyers.
Black Blade: Looks like another CEO could be shown on TV being led off in handcuffs. Decorating tips for a 5’ x 9’ room? Hmmm…
Off to the gym
Black Blade
(06/30/02; 14:36:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 79539)
Zimbabwe Decries Mining Company
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/020630/zimbabwe_crackdown_3.html
Zimbabwe Leader Accuses Mining Giant Anglo-American of Hoarding Salt, Threatens to Seize Assets
Snippit:
HARARE, Zimbabwe (AP) -- President Robert Mugabe has accused mining giant Anglo-American Corp. of hoarding salt amid Zimbabwe's hunger crisis and threatened to seize the company's local assets, state media reported Sunday. In a speech to ruling party officials Friday, Mugabe attacked National Foods, which he described as "an Anglo American company of Nicky Oppenheimer," the chairman of the mining giant. "They have been hoarding salt. ... They want people on the streets against our government. What kind of mischief is this?" he said, according to the state-owned Sunday Mail. "We will take over their enterprises." More than 6 million Zimbabweans, about half the population, are in danger of starvation after a drought and government seizures of white-owned commercial farms nearly destroyed this year's grain harvest, according to the United Nations.
Black Blade: It looks like the mine seizures in Zim are about to begin. A few well-paid mercenaries along with opposition party members could probably restore a more reasonable government. It shouldn't take much to whack Mugabe. In the old days African mining companies used to quite efficient in this regard. Of course in the old days the US would embargo countries like Zim for human rights abuses too. "Interesting Times"
USAGOLD
(06/30/02; 14:14:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 79538)
Towncrier. . .
Chronology. . . .
Now, if I were the head of the Bank of Japan and I wanted to devise the ultimate strategy based on my county's needs, I would keep the dollar high, ratchet up exports, and recycle the dollars into the gold at the contrived price by encouraging the local citizenry to load up (a neat twist to the DeGaulle strategy). If the bullion banks didn't do it for me (with respect to the dollar price), I would do it myself in the futures/forward market. After all, as Soros, says this is The Age of Anything Goes. The fact that it might be the bullion banks doing BOJ a favor acts only as a convenient happenstance -- just as the chess-master employs pawns at the vanguard of his/her ultimate strategy. As a matter of fact I always thought the best strategy for the gold advocates of the world would be to short the market and buy physical when the price dropped and sell the options to make the paper profit. Keep doing it until you drive the price to $100, put the mining companies out of business, and then sit back and watch as no gold came on the market and the only gold around was what you/we held. . . . .Result: $1000/2000/3000 gold. Sound farfetched?? Maybe. Maybe not. After all, what Soros is talking about encourages exactly that type of strategy! Looking back at what has happened over the last 12 months, I might be willing to speculate that some may have seen the potential in this strategy long ago. . . . . .
I'm not saying that's what Japan is doing; I'm just saying that looks like an effective (and bold) counter-ploy based on the stimuli presented. If I'm being set-up to eat more than my fair share of worthless currency, I want to garner as much protection as I can, as cheaply as I can, for as long as I can. And I'm not the only one thinking it. I wouldn't be surprised to find out that the Bank of Japan and Soros both had similar thoughts in this timeframe.
Isn't this similar to what Another attempted to posit a long time ago . . . .as the strategy of the Giants?
Just a thought. . . .on another hot, smoky day in the Rocky Mountains.
misetich
(06/30/02; 12:53:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 79537)
Soros reiterates dollar could fall by a third; attacks US business morals
http://www.ananova.com/business/story/sm_618987.html?menu=
Snip:
Financier-turned-philanthropist, George Soros, said that the developing 'Bush bear market' is to blame for waning faith in US economics and business.
He also reiterated his prediction that the dollar could conceivably drop by a third against major world currencies on top of the already heavy declines seen in recent months.
Its tumble has placed it at almost at parity with the once struggling euro and at two year low against the pound as mounting worries about the spate of corporate failures such as Enron, Worldcom and Xerox has been reflected in currency market disarray.
"People have lost confidence in America," Soros told the BBC as he gave a frank assessment of business morality during George Bush's tenure as president.
Soros said he believed that in part the large number of US corporate failures was "normal fall-out of the preceding boom", though he also blamed them on the "anything goes culture", which he said is now entirely ingrained in US finance and politics.
"The fact it is so widespread raises more far reaching issues about the values that guide us - not just in business, but in politics and life," he told the Breakfast with Frost Programme.
............
Asked whether America's corporate contagion could spread to Europe, he said: "It could occur, there are always excesses." But he conceded that Europe does not have the systemic problems of the US.
He said the US system of rules-based accounting was to blame and he that there had been a roaring trade in what he called "rules avoidance", which have led to the crushing lack of faith in US accountancy.
"The rules avoidance industry is a very large industry pursued by the most respectable people in finance," he said.
Misetich
Soros on the attack, uuhmm - Back on the Trail
Got gold?
misetich
(06/30/02; 12:38:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 79536)
US government figures showed Corporate Earnings were inflated - "They" did nothing..now
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_2075000/2075864.stm
Snip:
The recent spate of accounting scandals in the US has left many investors dismayed and perplexed.
It was not so long ago that US companies were routinely reporting double-digit growth in their earnings as the stock markets soared repeatedly to new heights.
But in truth, even then it was not difficult to see that US corporates were their cooking the books. Investors did not have to look far to realise that the profit figures put out by many companies in the late 1990s were inflated.
The government's own profit figures detailed in the national accounts, showed that companies were never making the money that they claimed.
During the last five years of the bull market, the companies that make up the S&P500 reported that profits had risen by 96.2%.
...............
By contrast, the government's own figures revealed that corporate sector profits had only risen by 36.1%. The figures implied that US companies could be overstating profits growth by more than 150%.
Inconvenient facts
The national accounts figures were hardly a secret.
But they were largely overlooked by analysts who wanted to believe that the US was enjoying a profit boom on the back of a productivity renaissance.
The facts were too troublesome for those who vehemently believed that the US economy had been transformed by corporate restructuring during the early 1990s.
So instead it was claimed that the national accounts data cover the entire gamut of quoted and unquoted companies.
The data, the argument went, was therefore not representative of the select companies that made up the S&P500.
................
Pandora's box
Now the chickens are coming home to roost, investors are entitled to ask how many more skeletons may be lurking in the cupboard?
.............
If we believe the national accounts data, then company profits are currently showing an increase of 31.4% since the turn of 1995.
However, the broad stock market has still risen by 121.8% in price terms, and by 204.6% in market capitalisation terms.
Depending on which benchmark you choose, share prices have still risen by between 4 and 6.5 times corporate earnings.
Some analysts will no doubt point to the fact interest rates are at a 40-year low. But record low borrowing costs have not done anything for the Japanese stock market.
For choice, there is every chance the Dow could be trading in the low 8,000s before the end of the summer, taking the FSTE down below 4,000.
Thereafter, the Fed may well cut interest rates down towards 0.5% by the autumn, as the US economy lurches back towards recession.
No doubt we will then have a year-end rally. But the bear market is not going to go away that quickly.
Investors have been duped, and it is going to be a long time before they can trust corporate America again.
Misetich
Fraudlent CEO's, investment bankers, greed, corrupt politicians and appointed government and goverment agencies officials are the enemy from within. Reminds us of the famous Julius Augustus, a country falls from within before it falls from without.
Lets hope we can cleanse this abhorrent corruption and re-establish free markets -
Free gold now!
TownCrier
(06/30/02; 12:34:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 79535)
CHRONOLOGY - History of central bank intervention
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020628/chronology_history_1.html
I am sure this will be of great interest to some of you.
LONDON, June 28 (Reuters) - The following is a chronology of intervention in foreign exchange markets by major central banks on the dollar, yen, mark and euro....
(click URL)
TownCrier
(06/30/02; 12:30:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 79534)
HEADLINE: Argentine leader slams U.S. 'ignorance'
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020630/argentina_1.html
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, June 30 (Reuters) - Embattled Argentine President Eduardo Duhalde hit out at the United States on Sunday, saying U.S. "ignorance" was his crisis-hit nation's biggest hurdle to securing vital aid.
Duhalde, drafted in by Congress after the elected government fell amid deadly food riots in December, said Argentina was being discriminated against by a U.S. government more interested in keeping oil flowing from the Middle East.
"The North American's do not consider themselves responsible and are prioritizing conflicts in other parts of the world in which the flow of oil to the West is at stake," the president said.
"We suffer serious discrimination from the United States," Duhalde added, criticizing the U.S. among others for what he described as hypocritical protectionist policies in the agricultural sector...
...With half of the population living in poverty, unable to buy basic food and clothing, and 24 percent of the workforce out of a job, Argentina is a social pressure cooker.
--------(click URL for full article)--------
Bottom line: Do you REALLY think the U.S. dollar has global political support in its current battle with the euro for usage supremacy? Don't count on it. And don't let your portfolio suffer needlessly for it in the future. Diversify now into gold.
R.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(06/30/02; 12:21:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 79533)
Hard assets... easy access! Call monday for help with your diversification strategy.
"Without waxing philosophical, a few words are helpful concerning the mind-set with which you pursue your interest in gold ownership. Some enter the gold market to make a profit, others to hedge disaster, some to accomplish both. No matter into which category you fit, make sure you understand why you are going into the gold market. Convey that understanding to the individual with whom you are structuring your gold portfolio. The whys have quite a bit to do with what you end up owning.
"Frequently investors will say that any kind of gold will do because after all gold is gold, isn't it? This type of attitude has helped a great many coin shop owners unload unwanted inventory they hadn't been able to get rid of for years. This is probably a good deal for the coin dealer, but it could spell disaster for you. In the same vein, I have talked to hundreds, probably thousands, of investors in nearly a quarter century in the business. Quite often, potential investors have no more reason for buying gold than 'everybody else is doing it.'
"In Chapter 16 on portfolio planning, you will find some details on this important subject. For now, consider the inscription over the entrance to the temple of the ancient Delphic Oracle: 'Know Thyself.' Study. Read. Learn what's going on around you. Call a few gold firms and ask questions. There's nothing like conversation to stimulate thinking. Take time to lay a little groundwork. Then make your move. The political and economic situation being what it is, there is no better time to start than now. Know thyself -- your goals and needs -- and you will be a more confident, happier gold investor." (more)
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