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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 5/30/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

GoldenShower! (05/30/02; 23:55:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 77144)
When it rains ...
There's no hiding from it ... $$$329.3$$$ ... Gold is as good as mother nature, and she will have her way ...

Guided (05/30/02; 23:46:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 77143)
Contest Entry $$$$$ 335.20 $$$$$
May be a wild day on May 31 2002. A 10 dollar day.

YGM (05/30/02; 23:43:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 77142)
I'm going to tickle your funny bone while you await the "Bell"
Don't Mess With YGM's Granny! or is it "Yours"
Charges were dropped yesterday against Ruth "Grammy" Gordon, an 83-year-old wheelchair-bound grandmother, who was originally charged with assault and battery, and assault with a deadly weapon, because an altercation she had last week with six airport security guards, that left all six hospitalized.

"Justice has been served," said the 95-pound mother of three and grandmother of six, as she sat in her wheelchair, aided in her breathing by an oxygen bottle. "Now I'm going to sue every fool in the federal government for ignorance, stupidity, and just plain general incompetence. I'm an American, and I won't be treated like this."

The problem began last month as Gordon was attempting to board an airplane. "These guys are supposed to be some kind of professionals," she said, "but they're dumber than rocks. Here they were letting guys who looked just like terrorists walk through without searching them, and then they pull me aside and tell me they're going to search me? I don't think so."

According to one witness, Bud Cort of Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio, one guard, "who weighed about 300 pounds, looked like he was drunk, and had his shirt out, told this woman she couldn't board the plane unless they searched her. He was really rude. That's when the trouble started."

Videotapes showed that Gordon ran the guard down with her motorized wheelchair, then sat on top of the screaming man while spinning her chair in circles. "Doofus was so fat he couldn't get up," said Gordon with a giggle.

One guard who attempted to pull Gordon's wheelchair off of the screaming man from behind was hit over the head with an oxygen bottle and knocked unconscious. A third guard, who approached Gordon from the front, was also left dazed on the floor. Witnesses said she was cackling, "Put your hands on an old lady, will you?" as she bashed both guards.

The tape also showed a fourth guard attempting to grab Gordon's wheelchair. Gordon removed a knitting needle from her purse and stabbed him in his left buttock. "What a wimp," she told reporters. "He started screaming and grabbing his butt and running like a puppy that someone kicked."

"It was amazing," said another witness, a Scott Ryan. "The whole crowd just stood there cheering and clapping. I mean, she was whupping butt."

A fifth guard that attempted to grab Gordon had the seat of his pants set on fire with a cigarette lighter than had escaped detection. "He just went whoosh across the concourse, screaming and slapping at all these flames flying out of his rear," said Ryan.

A sixth guard did finally manage to get Gordon in a body hug. "I think that was the wrong thing to do," said another witness, who declined to be identified. "She just grabbed him by his greasy hair with one hand and cracked him across the jaw with her skinny fist. And down and out he went."

After all this, Gordon's chair was still sitting on top of the first guard. The tapes clearly showed her leaning over and yelling, "Apologize to me, you fat sumbitch, or when I'm done with you you'll just be a greasy spot on the floor!"

As the crowd roared, the guard cried, "I'm sorry, I'm sorry! Uncle! I won't do it again!"

Finally, Gordon surrendered without further incident, and was taken to jail and released on her own recognizance. "We didn't have any choice," said an unidentified officer of the court. "Over 200 people showed up to support her. I think if we had demanded bail, there would have been a riot."

Over 20 lawyers offered to defend her for free. However, realizing the precariousness of the case, Gordon was not charged with anything. "I doubt there's a jury in the whole country that would have found her guilty of anything," said one of the lawyers.

"I'm flying again tomorrow," Gordon told reporters. "And I suggest no one at the airport so much as look at me wrong."


**ROTFLMAO....

Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 23:41:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 77141)
TICK TOCK --- LAST CALL for POG Contest Entries !!!!
TWENTY minutes to go !
<;-)

Boilermaker (05/30/02; 23:24:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 77140)
POG Contest
$$$$$$329.10$$$$$$$$

One of the few numbers left and Spot is getting frisky tonight. It seems goldbugs are coming out of the woodwork.

Many thanks to MK and Gandalf for this contest. May the best bug win!

YGM (05/30/02; 23:23:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 77139)
Spot Jump
Hung Fat is in Hong Kong for the weekend......
So he's buying there tonite...Dr No is still in NY so we'll see his moves in the AM....Wonder if they'd like some help carrying all that Yellow or maybe a body guard????

Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 23:21:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 77138)
<;-)
SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH !!! Thanks YGM !!
Maybe YOU will help me next time ?
<;-)

Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 23:17:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 77137)
Sir Tarzan-- It was also TAKEN -- TRY AGAIN (Third time is a CHARM) !!!!
Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 22:57:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 77131)
ATTENTION Sir Tarzan === PREVIOUSLY taken Entry !!!!
Tarzan (05/30/02; 22:53:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 77128)
Gold Contest
My guess in the contest is $325.30
---
Tarzan (05/30/02; 22:59:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 77132)
Gold Contest
My guess in the contest is $325.90
===
Please TRY AGAIN !


otish mountain (05/30/02; 23:16:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 77136)
pog contest
$$$$328.60$$$$
Why? I feel spot price will runup to and maybe break $330 before falling back to close at my guess.Probably some short covering tomorrow will ramp up price in the AM then selling will begin late in the day.

YGM (05/30/02; 23:15:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 77135)
Gandalf the White
Decorated for Bravery?
Gandalf...the Lord of the Castle should decorate Rock #76254
YGM #76256 and Graefin #76257 (first 3)for Bravery for posting on day one in and that we were so brave (foolish) to post immediately on day one....Maybe a Buffalo Nickel or a wooden one :>} Next time I'm gonna wait til 5 to 12:00 :>}

Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 23:05:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 77134)
BTW --- Did you notice that SPOT is start to JUMP AGAIN ?
<;-)

Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 23:01:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 77133)
TICK TOCK -- An HOUR to GO !!!!
PLEASE TRY AGAIN (3rd time) -- Sir Tarzan !!
ENTRIES in Contest (sorted by Price) !!
====
$$$$ 29,999.0 $$$$ mikal (05/30/02; 22:10:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 77117

$$$$ 8,752.0 $$$$ The Invisible Hand (05/24/02; 05:39:59MT msg#: 76471

$$$$ 777.0 $$$$ LimitUp (05/30/02; 22:47:08MT msg#: 77126

$$$$ 440.2 $$$$ goldquest (05/22/02; 14:17:02MT msg#: 76261

$$$$ 366.0 $$$$ Canuck (05/30/02; 17:43:06MT msg#: 77071

$$$$ 365.2 $$$$ Husky (5/29/02; 13:19:04MT msg#: 76876

$$$$ 360.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (05/24/02; 12:29:56MT msg#: 76497

$$$$ 355.9 $$$$ darkhorse (05/22/02; 21:25:11MT msg#: 76317

$$$$ 354.0 $$$$ Henri (05/24/02; 09:18:51MT msg#: 76490

$$$$ 352.5 $$$$ White Hills (05/22/02; 19:23:20MT msg#: 76300

$$$$ 350.0 $$$$ ROSEBUD99 (5/28/02; 10:32:46MT msg#: 76775
$$$$ 349.9 $$$$ perform (5/30/02; 04:05:13MT msg#: 76970

$$$$ 349.2 $$$$ Pizz (5/28/02; 10:07:10MT msg#: 76771

$$$$ 348.4 $$$$ techbull.... (05/30/02; 15:27:22MT msg#: 77058)

$$$$ 348.0 $$$$ White Rose (05/25/02; 22:03:47MT msg#: 76569

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ sstins (05/30/02; 15:20:56MT msg#: 77054

$$$$ 343.0 $$$$ ji (5/25/02; 06:23:45MT msg#: 76533

$$$$ 342.0 $$$$ neer-do-well (05/24/02; 08:20:19MT msg#: 76484

$$$$ 341.0 $$$$ spike (05/30/02; 16:59:34MT msg#: 77066

$$$$ 339.9 $$$$ R Powell (05/30/02; 16:13:36MT msg#: 77063

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (05/22/02; 16:32:28MT msg#: 76278
$$$$ 338.9 $$$$ Siochain (5/28/02; 09:41:22MT msg#: 76766

$$$$ 338.2 $$$$ silvester (5/29/02; 20:57:16MT msg#: 76920

$$$$ 337.5 $$$$ wiley (05/23/02; 10:49:37MT msg#: 76386

$$$$ 336.6 $$$$ zorro (5/23/02; 16:42:43MT msg#: 76420

$$$$ 336.0 $$$$ Creosote (05/22/02; 19:38:52MT msg#: 76303

$$$$ 335.6 $$$$ Kodie (05/26/02; 09:59:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 76588

$$$$ 335.1 $$$$ Gold Standard (5/27/02; 05:32:52MT msg#: 76663

$$$$ 334.7 $$$$ RobotGuy (5/28/02; 10:38:00MT msg#: 76777
$$$$ 334.6 $$$$ GuyGold (05/30/02; 22:25:20MT msg#: 77120


$$$$ 334.4 $$$$ BILLYG (5/29/02; 01:36:25MT msg#: 76832
$$$$ 334.3 $$$$ Believer (05/22/02; 16:19:37MT msg#: 76277

$$$$ 333.3 $$$$ Tevye (05/22/02; 13:58:29MT msg#: 76258

$$$$ 332.8 $$$$ AUthentic (5/29/02; 14:59:17MT msg#: 76886)
$$$$ 332.7 $$$$ BLUENOSE (05/30/02; 18:42:47MT msg#: 77074

$$$$ 332.5 $$$$ gvc (05/30/02; 11:23:44MT msg#: 77016

$$$$ 332.3 $$$$ Neubie (05/30/02; 14:42:55MT msg#: 77043
$$$$ 332.2 $$$$ Goldfinger 2 (5/28/02; 11:20:26MT msg#: 76779

$$$$ 331.9 $$$$ Paper Avalanche (05/30/02; 13:24:29MT msg#: 77032

$$$$ 331.7 $$$$ sangrelli (05/30/02; 20:07:51MT msg#: 77094

$$$$ 331.5 $$$$ Camel (5/29/02; 08:40:15MT msg#: 76861

$$$$ 331.3 $$$$ auenboy (5/29/02; 22:04:32MT msg#: 76934

$$$$ 331.0 $$$$ DOWNUNDER (05/24/02; 22:40:53MT msg#: 76522

$$$$ 330.5 $$$$ Cumber (05/30/02; 08:31:17MT msg#: 76998

$$$$ 330.3 $$$$ Brahms (5/28/02; 00:16:44MT msg#: 76734
$$$$ 330.2 $$$$ Christian (5/27/02; 07:40:31MT msg#: 76666

$$$$ 330.0 $$$$ Shanti (05/30/02; 09:43:25MT msg#: 77004
$$$$ 329.9 $$$$ The Victorian (05/30/02; 20:41:49MT msg#: 77101
$$$$ 329.8 $$$$ Tate (5/28/02; 13:15:44MT msg#: 76790
$$$$ 329.7 $$$$ goldroadlx7 (5/28/02; 15:57:31MT msg#: 76802

$$$$ 329.5 $$$$ Waverider (05/30/02; 15:10:43MT msg#: 77053
$$$$ 329.4 $$$$ Clint H (5/23/02; 19:18:44MT msg#: 76436

$$$$ 329.2 $$$$ Max Rabbitz (05/30/02; 12:22:39MT msg#: 77023

$$$$ 329.0 $$$$ Voyager (05/30/02; 11:44:36MT msg#: 77019
$$$$ 328.9 $$$$ Zhisheng (5/30/02; 06:53:01MT msg#: 76982
$$$$ 328.8 $$$$ Hektor (05/30/02; 18:58:55MT msg#: 77079
$$$$ 328.7 $$$$ The CoinGuy (05/30/02; 21:39:34MT msg#: 77110

$$$$ 328.5 $$$$ HopeingII (05/30/02; 22:04:27MT msg#: 77115
$$$$ 328.4 $$$$ Slowman (05/24/02; 07:37:27MT msg#: 76479
$$$$ 328.3 $$$$ miner49er (05/30/02; 09:56:43MT msg#: 77006
$$$$ 328.2 $$$$ Troy Boy (05/30/02; 08:16:10MT msg#: 76995
$$$$ 328.1 $$$$ Humble Pie (05/30/02; 12:02:41MT msg#: 77021
$$$$ 328.0 $$$$ Nomad (5/29/02; 21:26:48MT msg#: 76925
$$$$ 327.9 $$$$ Goldilocks 1 (5/29/02; 19:51:51MT msg#: 76913
$$$$ 327.8 $$$$ tedw (5/29/02; 23:38:18MT msg#: 76951
$$$$ 327.7 $$$$ goldenpeace (5/28/02; 03:52:15MT msg#: 76749
$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ timbervision (05/23/02; 09:17:25MT msg#: 76369
$$$$ 327.5 $$$$ koala bear (5/29/02; 13:03:51MT msg#: 76874
$$$$ 327.4 $$$$ Canuck Gold (05/30/02; 12:23:48MT msg#: 77024
$$$$ 327.3 $$$$ The Hoople (05/30/02; 13:35:47MT msg#: 77034
$$$$ 327.2 $$$$ vermillion (5/23/02; 19:19:38MT msg#: 76437
$$$$ 327.1 $$$$ purist (05/30/02; 20:43:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 77102*
$$$$ 327.0 $$$$ Solomon Weaver (05/25/02; 21:59:46MT msg#: 76568
$$$$ 326.9 $$$$ Achilles (05/24/02; 04:29:15MT msg#: 76466
$$$$ 326.8 $$$$ Hipplebeck (05/23/02; 06:07:51MT msg#: 76357
$$$$ 326.7 $$$$ ProGold (05/30/02; 13:22:18MT msg#: 77031
$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ slingshot (05/24/02; 19:24:09MT msg#: 76519
$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ turkey hunter (05/30/02; 15:43:58MT msg#: 77061
$$$$ 326.4 $$$$ Kevin$ (5/29/02; 21:34:57MT msg#: 76929
$$$$ 326.3 $$$$ Yukon (05/30/02; 11:34:08MT msg#: 77018
$$$$ 326.2 $$$$ Econoclast (05/30/02; 20:35:31MT msg#: 77100
$$$$ 326.1 $$$$ Chap "X" by TC (05/30/02; 21:07:26MT msg#: 77107
$$$$ 326.0 $$$$ Broken Tee (5/23/02; 15:38:46MT msg#: 76416
$$$$ 325.9 $$$$ Simply Me (05/30/02; 22:49:03MT msg#: 77127
$$$$ 325.8 $$$$ ore stone (05/30/02; 12:52:11MT msg#: 77027
$$$$ 325.7 $$$$ OZ (05/26/02; 23:20:25MT msg#: 76635
$$$$ 325.6 $$$$ Artie Farkle (05/30/02; 14:08:01MT msg#: 77040
$$$$ 325.5 $$$$ steady (05/24/02; 15:26:22MT msg#: 76503
$$$$ 325.4 $$$$ Renny (5/28/02; 18:39:54MT msg#: 76809
$$$$ 325.3 $$$$ Frosty (5/28/02; 17:48:48MT msg#: 76806
$$$$ 325.2 $$$$ Black Blade (05/30/02; 12:32:15MT msg#: 77025
$$$$ 325.1 $$$$ Au-some (5/29/02; 19:43:11MT msg#: 76912
$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Around The Corner (5/23/02; 02:17:38MT msg#: 76350
$$$$ 324.9 $$$$ THX-1138 (05/22/02; 16:45:28MT msg#: 76279
$$$$ 324.8 $$$$ Yellow Metal (05/22/02; 16:51:55MT msg#: 76280
$$$$ 324.7 $$$$ Gimli_ (05/30/02; 14:28:18MT msg#: 77042
$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Graefin (05/22/02; 13:33:35MT msg#: 76257
$$$$ 324.5 $$$$ Q (05/30/02; 10:44:28MT msg#: 77013
$$$$ 324.4 $$$$ Bound Spirit (05/30/02; 10:40:25MT msg#: 77011
$$$$ 324.3 $$$$ Shermag (05/30/02; 14:58:38MT msg#: 77048
$$$$ 324.2 $$$$ Rock (05/22/02; 13:06:37MT msg#: 76254
$$$$ 324.1 $$$$ jlfletc (05/30/02; 17:04:49MT msg#: 77067
$$$$ 324.0 $$$$ Golden Bear (05/30/02; 07:46:42MT msg#: 76987
$$$$ 323.9 $$$$ Alchemist (05/30/02; 08:11:16MT msg#: 76993
$$$$ 323.8 $$$$ Knallgold (05/30/02; 09:38:57MT msg#: 77003*
$$$$ 323.8 $$$$ Yellow Jacket (05/30/02; 20:49:01MT msg#: 77104
$$$$ 323.7 $$$$ Trurl (5/29/02; 21:07:00MT msg#: 76922
$$$$ 323.6 $$$$ VanRip (05/22/02; 21:58:11MT msg#: 76323
$$$$ 323.5 $$$$ TKC (05/30/02; 22:26:47MT msg#: 77122
$$$$ 323.4 $$$$ kramrich (05/30/02; 22:57:04MT msg#: 77130

$$$$ 323.1 $$$$ goldenboy (5/30/02; 07:24:16MT msg#: 76983

$$$$ 322.6 $$$$ misetich (5/23/02; 03:05:56MT msg#: 76351

$$$$ 322.0 $$$$ Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 21:48:50MT msg#: 77113

$$$$ 321.5 $$$$ RobertG (5/23/02; 19:23:59MT msg#: 76438

$$$$ 320.4 $$$$ Jimbo (05/22/02; 14:31:21MT msg#: 76264

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ 18K (5/23/02; 03:47:11MT msg#: 76353

$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (05/22/02; 17:52:38MT msg#: 76284

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ YGM (05/22/02; 13:29:47MT msg#: 76256

$$$$ 319.3 $$$$ WW Oracle (05/30/02; 22:19:44MT msg#: 77119

$$$$ 319.0 $$$$ Houston (5/25/02; 12:57:47MT msg#: 76551
$$$$ 318.9 $$$$ Jon (5/29/02; 15:05:27MT msg#: 76888

$$$$ 318.5 $$$$ EagleOne (05/22/02; 21:26:49MT msg#: 76318

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ onlychild (05/22/02; 15:10:37MT msg#: 76269

$$$$ 317.5 $$$$ balzac (05/23/02; 07:33:25MT msg#: 76363

$$$$ 317.2 $$$$ Tommy P (05/23/02; 07:00:52MT msg#: 76361

$$$$ 317.0 $$$$ nickel62 (05/26/02; 09:20:46MT msg#: 76585

$$$$ 316.5 $$$$ cwa (05/24/02; 08:04:10MT msg#: 76481

$$$$ 316.0 $$$$ luckypierre (05/25/02; 15:52:53MT msg#: 76555

$$$$ 315.8 $$$$ Brett Woods (05/27/02; 21:19:19MT msg#: 76720
$$$$ 315.7 $$$$ law (05/27/02; 23:56:54MT msg#: 76732

$$$$ 315.4 $$$$ ausome (05/22/02; 18:51:28MT msg#: 76296

$$$$ 314.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (05/22/02; 17:51:17MT msg#: 76283

$$$$ 314.5 $$$$ Pippin (05/23/02; 07:14:36MT msg#: 76362

$$$$ 313.5 $$$$ Topaz (5/25/02; 08:44:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 76541

$$$$ 312.5 $$$$ AUtistic (05/22/02; 17:50:02MT msg#: 76282

$$$$ 308.6 $$$$ kludge (05/23/02; 08:11:29MT msg#: 76365

$$$$ 298.5 $$$$ Mexican (05/27/02; 15:33:32MT msg#: 76690


Tarzan (05/30/02; 22:59:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 77132)
Gold Contest
My guess in the contest is $325.90 . I think that will be fairly close to the value of gold at this weeks closing. Tarzan

Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 22:57:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 77131)
ATTENTION Sir Tarzan === PREVIOUSLY taken Entry !!!!
Tarzan (05/30/02; 22:53:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 77128)
Gold Contest
My guess in the contest is $325.30
===
Please TRY AGAIN !

kramrich (05/30/02; 22:57:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 77130)
contest
whoops$$$$323.40$$$$

I think the dollar will close up a little tomorrow after a brutal week for the dollar. Some shorts closing out their postions ahead of the weekend pushing the dollar up a little. Also I think the Dow will close some for the same reasons. This will probably make gold price track sideways to a little down tomorrow, thus my guess at 323.40.

323.50 was already taken.

kramrich (05/30/02; 22:54:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 77129)
contest
$$$$323.50$$$$

I think the dollar will close up a little tomorrow after a brutal week for the dollar. Some shorts closing out their postions ahead of the weekend pushing the dollar up a little. Also I think the Dow will close some for the same reasons. This will probably make gold price track sideways to a little down tomorrow, thus my guess at 323.50

Tarzan (05/30/02; 22:53:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 77128)
Gold Contest
My guess in the contest is $325.30 . I think that will be fairly close to the value of gold at this weeks closing. Tarzan

Simply Me (05/30/02; 22:49:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 77127)
$$$$ 325.9 $$$$ My entry for the POG guessing contest
It's a craps-shoot! A roll of the dice. But I figured to let all the logical spots be taken first, and go with a number that was left. Why not? My reasoned guesses have never won.
Simply

LimitUp (05/30/02; 22:47:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 77126)
Contest
$$$$$$$$777.00$$$$$$$$$$$ Because here in Oregon we "fix" our own price of gold. We don't need a bunch of banksters doing it for us. So there!

miner49er (05/30/02; 22:45:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 77125)
It's the euro, stupid...
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2001/200111302/

Having fired off that post this morning, I went back and decided I wanted to flesh out the dollar/euro thing a bit more, as I really did kind of race over it, earlier... I believe there is a salient point to observe in the association of the dollar exchange rate of the euro, and its influence on the splitting of the gold contract pricing regime, from the "spot" price of open physical off take. Here is my thinking:

From the quote (and the discussion found in the article to which the link refers), Alan Greenspan provides the crux of the issues at hand in viewing the struggle between two currencies vying for international demand. Allow me yet again to insert this quote.

"Because the attractiveness of any vehicle currency grows as its liquidity increases, an international currency has a tendency to become a natural monopoly.

"If the underlying demand for one of two competing vehicle currencies falters for a reason not clearly perceived to be transitory, and its bid-ask spreads, accordingly, increase relative to its competition, demand will shift to that competitor. But that shift, in turn, will widen the bid-ask spread of the faltering competitor still more, inducing a further shift of transactions to the alternative currency. This process ends with the demise of the weaker currency as a competing vehicle and the stronger of the two becoming the sole surviving vehicle."

One of the keys to a successful world currency in today's world is its liquidity. Therefore one of the principal strategies of the dollar faction must be to deny the euro, as much as possible, a chance to grow. I believe one of the chief initiatives (in retrospect of course) behind the virulent, and obsessive efforts of the dollar faction to destroy the gold price from 1998 on was in anticipation of the euro. Seeing that it was not going to be stillborn, it became critical, even vital to the dollar that the euro become an under-nourished, malformed thing that would repel investors, and if lucky, cause enough damage to the euro zone economies, that they would demand some kind of referendum and reject it outright.

Since something like 10-15% of the ECB reserves are comprised of gold holdings, a cheaper gold price can make a decent difference in the total assets marked on their balance sheet, as the ECB quarterly revalues their gold assets to the market. This total is especially noticeable when considering the contraction of the fractional reserve process that goes with it. This effect is further compounded by the pure economic ramifications that a contraction would have on the euro zone. To offset this, the ECB would be pressured to apply the quick fix remedies of the conventional wisdom, and make the euro more plentiful by making it easier to obtain, hence devaluing it in respect to reserves, or building reserves with additional debt, and likewise endangering the EU membership's 3% deficit limitation. In any case this would likely involve lowering their short-term interest rate targets.

Should they give in to this pressure, they would foremost compromise their strict public stance that they would avoid political entanglements; their goal being the integrity of the currency (maintained by targeting inflation), and their benchmark being the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). Giving in would discredit them pretty much right out of the gate, and cause not insignificant damage. Secondly, lowering rates would keep giving the dollar breathing room, as the divergence between comparable instruments in dollars or euros would be kept to a minimum, either set of instruments yielding about the same, and therefore not further inviting investors to move to the euro.

As I mentioned some time back, one of the dollar's goals in this conflict was to cause the euro to act like the dollar. Since the euro is not designed like the dollar, it would only be able to act like the dollar inefficiently, if at all, thus promoting the dollar by contrast. And if it should choose to behave like the dollar, then why not just keep using the dollar?

So, I believe a choice was made to systematically lower the gold price against every big player's expectations, and probably much to their ire. I speculate here, but in order to allow this in the short term, sweeping concessions have probably been made across the political/financial spectrum to keep certain players from taking action that would upset the apple cart.

Now what this has to do with the euro exchange rate is that it compelled it to go lower. To be sure, there were significant market dynamics in play independent of this that pressured the euro downward. But at the end of the day, a euro staying too strong in terms of the dollar, and hence gold (so long as the dollar markets determine the price), would cause a systematic quarterly downward revision of their balance sheet as long as gold declined. So any efforts to support the euro could not be deployed during this phase. If anything the euro was best served by further depreciating, as this would make gold more expensive in euros (having to base it on the dollar price), thereby maintaining its value on their balance sheet.

The vicious circle this created for the euro is that these efforts only further strengthened the dollar, and encouraged more dollar investment, and made dollar debtors even more desperate to obtain them, as their debts became more expensive daily (which provided plenty and cheap products to the U.S., and allowed us to run up those inane current account deficits each month). All this just put even more dollars in play (extra liquidity), all the while keeping the illusion of price stability, and fostered a somewhat good-as-gold valuation in the eyes of the world -- which substantiated the validity of this additional liquidity.

I believe we made (and are still making) a conscious decision to sacrifice our manufacturing and other export sectors as a necessary loss, in order to sustain this face off. Here we stand eyeball-to-eyeball, toe-to-toe, bad-breath-to-bad-breath. Who will blink first? We are sacrificing our industrial heart and soul, and running up unfathomable debt, to fight a battle of attrition. Time (i.e., having enough of it) is our only hope. Europe must wrestle with its political element clamoring for easier money, to offset the higher cost of imports brought on by the strong dollar -- especially oil. The dollar wants the euro to flinch and try to act like the dollar (which is a trap, as it is not a dollar), and the euro is seeking to gain liquidity, without depreciation, but is hampered by the gold/dollar chain around its neck, whereby it cannot show any muscle, as appreciation in a down gold market offsets its efforts with a contracting reserve asset base.

Any overt attempt to break this stranglehold in the gold markets by the big players would have cataclysmic results. Certainly the price of gold would jettison beyond anyone's expectations, but the entire global dollar infrastructure would disintegrate, and the fission-like reaction from the subsequent derivatives disaster would invite far too many unknowns from the sudden and violent instability. The euro faction even has to be careful in how it encourages its public into physical gold ownership. Too obvious an emphasis would send equally powerful signals, and cause a torrential exodus from dollars to gold too suddenly.

So it is probably the decision of the cool heads in these circles to stay the course, and commingle bad breath with the dollar forces, while subtly encouraging public gold awareness, and subsequent physical gold ownership. This is necessary, as best laid plans of mice and bankers will come to naught ultimately unless the public is on board. The benefits of public gold ownership to the euro create a virtuous circle in that the euro does not compete with gold. So those who own gold are happy not to have to constantly fight with their currency's handlers, and those who own euros benefit indirectly from any appreciation in gold. The exact opposite exists in the dollar camp. And subsequently, gold ownership is nowhere encouraged in its ranks.

The risky part about this strategy of slowly changing the mindset of the public to gold ownership is that it is a choice from which there is no turning back. Even if immense physical gold off take were taking place at the highest circles and done in such a way that no one knew it was happening (it probably happens like this every day...), reversing course is no real big deal, as you are dealing with a few known entities, and the ground rules are generally understood, and the participants proficient at their trade. Allerlei political strategies, and financial machinations are at their disposal. We on the ground would remain eternally clueless of what went on.

When the genii of a sea change in public opinion is let out of the bottle, however, it is not easily returned. So the countless efforts to encourage physical gold ownership (gold markets in Dubai, and China, e.g., and China effectively removing VAT from gold purchases, the new German gold coin, the coming gold euro, etc.), combined with the forceful and sudden interest in gold due to systemic problems (e.g., Japan -- with its trillions, count 'em, trillions of available yen), and you have a tremendous force placed against the price of gold -- and brought on by real, paid for, delivery demanded, off take.

This will eventually pressure the contract markets by constant and wearying bouts of backwardation until one or both of the following happen: 1) the strength, will, and resources of the shorts give out, and price spikes expose them, causing default and discrediting of the market, with contract pricing becoming worthless; 2) longs bail out first -- those seeking delivery recognizing they won't get it here, and those playing the price action, recognizing the game's over.

In any case, the evisceration of the paper pricing mechanisms in dollars will unleash the physical price of gold, and this in turn will allow the euro room to appreciate without jeopardizing its balance sheet. Indeed as gold begins its steady, no turning back ascent, it will only enhance the ECB asset base further. This will permit large amounts of new and viable debt to be issued, and increase euro liquidity. This will further devalue the dollar, which will only inspire a further exodus from it, and further encourage the price of gold higher.

In an all out effort, we are going to pump and pump and pump our system to try and bring investor interest back to the table. We (I hazard this as speculation) are probably desperately, and now recklessly going to provide any cash backing possible to invite short interest to the gold markets, to throw as much water on the fire as we can. The big guns are exhausted, and it's time to call up the reserves. There is no gold at all, whatsoever behind these shorts, and this is known up front. But this is a last ditch effort. Everything is up for sacrifice here, as it is winner take all. If this last ditch effort works, then all these shorts will never be called, as the price of gold is beaten back, and the euro is forced again to stay on its tight rein. I'm not a technical guy, so I can't tell you exact floors or ceilings, but when I say they need to convincingly drive the price sustainably back to the 290 area, you get the picture of the task at hand. This would cause the euro rise of late to halt, and would have the effect of both decreasing the euro, as well as causing a reversal in the dollar back to its ever-strengthening mode.

The purpose of this is to apply pressure again, and again until hopefully the euro forces crack. Time is the dollar's only ally, but it is running out. Who can fathom all the intrigue and details of this sordid affair? Who can truly declare when and if and how?

So for the average man, it seems to make more sense to stay out of the fray, and hold one's savings in the actual metal itself, and not have to endure the house-of-horrors surprises that one awakens to on any given day, as this or that of their favorite equity, or highest flyer, suddenly goes belly-up on some untimely news.

I prefer to walk in the footsteps of the giants (and quietly way in back of the line, at that...).

Not a comprehensive treatment of the subject (phew!), but I hope this clarifies...

miner




Chris Powell (05/30/02; 22:37:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 77124)
The top 10 ways GATA could spend that $70,000
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1131
The top 10 ways GATA could spend that $70,000
contribution from Afrikander Lease:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1131

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
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Hektor (05/30/02; 22:32:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 77123)
Gandalf
Thanks very much for your gracious handling of my guess. It was obviously too complicated for my unassisted efforts.

TKC (05/30/02; 22:26:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 77122)
Guess on POG
$$$$$$323.5$$$$$$$$

The powers in control, do not want the price to be above 325 for now and this is the first avaliable price below 325.

Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 22:26:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 77121)
Lady Linda's Questions (msg#: 77118)
linda (05/30/02; 22:13:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 77118)
Questions
Would we loose all our money in the stock market?
===
Welcome Lady Linda ! May I begin the answer session with a "thought" that rings in my ears whenever I see this question that you have ask. A very good friend of mine, Peter the Great, would tell you that "There is NO MONEY in the stock market!!" The pieces of "ownership paper" are only worth what someone else will pay you for them, IF there are any buyers. Think about ENRON or Royal Oak Mines. Perhaps even ABX !!!
Then ask The(physical)Coinguy!
<;-)

GuyGold (05/30/02; 22:25:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 77120)
POG Guessing Contest
$$$$334.6$$$$
Taking in Mahenra Sharma's predictions+James Sinclair and Harry Schults comments+a gut feel and some hope is how I derived my guess.

WW Oracle (05/30/02; 22:19:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 77119)
Contest
$$$$ 319.30 $$$$

Short-term correction due, and pushed by those who would be under water if May ended with gold over $320.

linda (05/30/02; 22:13:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 77118)
Questions
Hi all—

I just finished reading the: ‘ABC of Gold Investing’ and would recommend anyone who wants to understand or/an learn about Gold investing to start with this book.

After reading the book it made me think about a lot of things and I have a lot of (dumb) questions if someone can help me out?

Are there any other good books regards understanding/educating oneself regards gold investing?

After reading the book, I had a couple of questions I wanted to ask:

Can the US gov't EVER pay out the debt? How did the debt originally start and how does it accumulate and by whom?


Can the US gov't devalue the US dollar? Who would be able to devalue the dollar (public or private agency) Under what circumstances?

What are the signs of a weak market, gov't and economy?

Can the US gov't claim bankruptcy? How would they do this? What would happen to the stock market (collapse, corp. bankruptcy (i.e. Enron?) what would the signs be? Would we loose all our money in the stock market? What would happen with the banking industry that is FDIC insured? Would the money be null? Would people loose business and jobs? How would the people get paid? To whom are the American people paying the debt to (public/private?)

If the US gov't can never pay out its debt, could it claim bankruptcy?

Who is the Central Bank? What is the Central Bank compromised of?

Page 72 mentions, To this day, the US gold reserve of roughly 260 billion ounces ostensibly is valued at $42.22 per ounce. despite the fact the face market price is closer to $400...
Which agency has allowed valued the gold to $42.22 per ounce despite the market value? Who would the US gov't sell the gold to for the above price? If gold were to be confiscated how would the gov't compensate the people?

Page 26, Why by banning the import of Krugerrand the gold premiums dropped? What is the definition of premium?

What about gold derivative?

I am still unclear how the pre-1933 coins are valued? Can the pre-1933 coins ever loss its value?

How can one avoid gold confiscation?

Any helpful answers/responses are welcomed!





mikal (05/30/02; 22:10:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 77117)
Contest Entry
$$$$29,999$$$$ This is the result of a simple diagnosis of an average cabal banker, belonging to the species- tyrannareekus megalomanius. Beginning with listening to the number of expletives, whines, or demands issued per minute: avg.=34. Add to the avg. weight, in pounds= 580 plus avg. pulse rate in 2002 in beats/min.=29,337, finally topped off with the avg. # of lifetime, productive hours contributed to public service= 48.

Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 22:06:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 77116)
ATTENTION SIR Boxman AND "Pilgrims Gold"
The following Entries were DUPLICATES and require RE-ENTRY !
===
Boxman (05/30/02; 17:55:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 77072)
---
Pilgrims Gold (05/30/02; 15:26:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 77057)
===
Tick Tock
<;-)

HopeingII (05/30/02; 22:04:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 77115)
CONTEST GUESS
$$$$ $ 328.5 $$$$ My guess is based primarily on three consideration.

1) The powers that be can no longer "easily" push the POG down.

2) Investors today face a multitude of negatives. The ongoing terrorist threat, the declining US dollar, the escalating US spending, Japan's banking situation, deteriorating stock markets, decreasing consumer onfidence, wars and rumours of war,SEC investigations, just to name a few. Certainly not all, if in fact any of these negatives are going to disappear quickly. Without doubt some are only going to get worse in coming months and possibly even years. Investors will become increasingly nervous.

3) After many years of almost none, Gold is receiving an increasing amount of positive commentary from some of the main stream press and investment analysts. This, in IMHO is very important.

I believe the currently underway shift of some portion of investor's funds into Gold will continue for some time to come.


TownCrier (05/30/02; 21:52:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 77114)
Gandalf, you're welcome!
All in a day's work. Always a pleasure to be "at your service" where hobbits are concerned.

R.

Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 21:48:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 77113)
$$$$ 322.0 $$$$
Thanks TC for the discussion item for Sir Chap !!! That has revised the Hobbits thinking and they have now come up with their collective "Guess" on the Settlement Price at the COB tomorrow !

Solomon Weaver (05/30/02; 21:43:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 77112)
Just posted today item discussing the investment value of silver....done up nicely in Jim Pupluva's usual brilliant format.
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/morgan052902.htm
Perhaps an item to print out in color for friends.

POS

Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 21:43:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 77111)
NEAR FINAL UPDATE --- a little over 2 HOURS remain !!!
ENTRIES in Contest (sorted by Price) !!
====
$$$$ 8,752.0 $$$$ The Invisible Hand (05/24/02; 05:39:59MT msg#: 76471

$$$$ 440.2 $$$$ goldquest (05/22/02; 14:17:02MT msg#: 76261

$$$$ 366.0 $$$$ Canuck (05/30/02; 17:43:06MT msg#: 77071

$$$$ 365.2 $$$$ Husky (5/29/02; 13:19:04MT msg#: 76876

$$$$ 360.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (05/24/02; 12:29:56MT msg#: 76497

$$$$ 355.9 $$$$ darkhorse (05/22/02; 21:25:11MT msg#: 76317

$$$$ 354.0 $$$$ Henri (05/24/02; 09:18:51MT msg#: 76490

$$$$ 352.5 $$$$ White Hills (05/22/02; 19:23:20MT msg#: 76300

$$$$ 350.0 $$$$ ROSEBUD99 (5/28/02; 10:32:46MT msg#: 76775
$$$$ 349.9 $$$$ perform (5/30/02; 04:05:13MT msg#: 76970

$$$$ 349.2 $$$$ Pizz (5/28/02; 10:07:10MT msg#: 76771

$$$$ 348.4 $$$$ techbull.... (05/30/02; 15:27:22MT msg#: 77058)

$$$$ 348.0 $$$$ White Rose (05/25/02; 22:03:47MT msg#: 76569

$$$$ 345.0 $$$$ sstins (05/30/02; 15:20:56MT msg#: 77054

$$$$ 343.0 $$$$ ji (5/25/02; 06:23:45MT msg#: 76533

$$$$ 342.0 $$$$ neer-do-well (05/24/02; 08:20:19MT msg#: 76484

$$$$ 341.0 $$$$ spike (05/30/02; 16:59:34MT msg#: 77066

$$$$ 339.9 $$$$ R Powell (05/30/02; 16:13:36MT msg#: 77063

$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (05/22/02; 16:32:28MT msg#: 76278
$$$$ 338.9 $$$$ Siochain (5/28/02; 09:41:22MT msg#: 76766

$$$$ 338.2 $$$$ silvester (5/29/02; 20:57:16MT msg#: 76920

$$$$ 337.5 $$$$ wiley (05/23/02; 10:49:37MT msg#: 76386

$$$$ 336.6 $$$$ zorro (5/23/02; 16:42:43MT msg#: 76420

$$$$ 336.0 $$$$ Creosote (05/22/02; 19:38:52MT msg#: 76303

$$$$ 335.6 $$$$ Kodie (05/26/02; 09:59:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 76588

$$$$ 335.1 $$$$ Gold Standard (5/27/02; 05:32:52MT msg#: 76663

$$$$ 334.7 $$$$ RobotGuy (5/28/02; 10:38:00MT msg#: 76777

$$$$ 334.4 $$$$ BILLYG (5/29/02; 01:36:25MT msg#: 76832
$$$$ 334.3 $$$$ Believer (05/22/02; 16:19:37MT msg#: 76277

$$$$ 333.3 $$$$ Tevye (05/22/02; 13:58:29MT msg#: 76258

$$$$ 332.8 $$$$ AUthentic (5/29/02; 14:59:17MT msg#: 76886)
$$$$ 332.7 $$$$ BLUENOSE (05/30/02; 18:42:47MT msg#: 77074

$$$$ 332.5 $$$$ gvc (05/30/02; 11:23:44MT msg#: 77016
$$$$ 332.3 $$$$ Neubie (05/30/02; 14:42:55MT msg#: 77043

$$$$ 332.2 $$$$ Goldfinger 2 (5/28/02; 11:20:26MT msg#: 76779

$$$$ 331.9 $$$$ Paper Avalanche (05/30/02; 13:24:29MT msg#: 77032

$$$$ 331.7 $$$$ sangrelli (05/30/02; 20:07:51MT msg#: 77094

$$$$ 331.5 $$$$ Camel (5/29/02; 08:40:15MT msg#: 76861

$$$$ 331.3 $$$$ auenboy (5/29/02; 22:04:32MT msg#: 76934

$$$$ 331.0 $$$$ DOWNUNDER (05/24/02; 22:40:53MT msg#: 76522

$$$$ 330.5 $$$$ Cumber (05/30/02; 08:31:17MT msg#: 76998

$$$$ 330.3 $$$$ Brahms (5/28/02; 00:16:44MT msg#: 76734
$$$$ 330.2 $$$$ Christian (5/27/02; 07:40:31MT msg#: 76666

$$$$ 330.0 $$$$ Shanti (05/30/02; 09:43:25MT msg#: 77004
$$$$ 329.9 $$$$ The Victorian (05/30/02; 20:41:49MT msg#: 77101
$$$$ 329.8 $$$$ Tate (5/28/02; 13:15:44MT msg#: 76790
$$$$ 329.7 $$$$ goldroadlx7 (5/28/02; 15:57:31MT msg#: 76802

$$$$ 329.5 $$$$ Waverider (05/30/02; 15:10:43MT msg#: 77053
$$$$ 329.4 $$$$ Clint H (5/23/02; 19:18:44MT msg#: 76436

$$$$ 329.2 $$$$ Max Rabbitz (05/30/02; 12:22:39MT msg#: 77023

$$$$ 329.0 $$$$ Voyager (05/30/02; 11:44:36MT msg#: 77019
$$$$ 328.9 $$$$ Zhisheng (5/30/02; 06:53:01MT msg#: 76982
$$$$ 328.8 $$$$ Hektor (05/30/02; 18:58:55MT msg#: 77079
$$$$ 328.7 $$$$ The CoinGuy (05/30/02; 21:39:34MT msg#: 77110)

$$$$ 328.4 $$$$ Slowman (05/24/02; 07:37:27MT msg#: 76479
$$$$ 328.3 $$$$ miner49er (05/30/02; 09:56:43MT msg#: 77006
$$$$ 328.2 $$$$ Troy Boy (05/30/02; 08:16:10MT msg#: 76995
$$$$ 328.1 $$$$ Humble Pie (05/30/02; 12:02:41MT msg#: 77021
$$$$ 328.0 $$$$ Nomad (5/29/02; 21:26:48MT msg#: 76925
$$$$ 327.9 $$$$ Goldilocks 1 (5/29/02; 19:51:51MT msg#: 76913
$$$$ 327.8 $$$$ tedw (5/29/02; 23:38:18MT msg#: 76951
$$$$ 327.7 $$$$ goldenpeace (5/28/02; 03:52:15MT msg#: 76749
$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ timbervision (05/23/02; 09:17:25MT msg#: 76369
$$$$ 327.5 $$$$ koala bear (5/29/02; 13:03:51MT msg#: 76874
$$$$ 327.4 $$$$ Canuck Gold (05/30/02; 12:23:48MT msg#: 77024
$$$$ 327.3 $$$$ The Hoople (05/30/02; 13:35:47MT msg#: 77034
$$$$ 327.2 $$$$ vermillion (5/23/02; 19:19:38MT msg#: 76437
$$$$ 327.1 $$$$ purist (05/30/02; 20:43:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 77102*
$$$$ 327.0 $$$$ Solomon Weaver (05/25/02; 21:59:46MT msg#: 76568
$$$$ 326.9 $$$$ Achilles (05/24/02; 04:29:15MT msg#: 76466
$$$$ 326.8 $$$$ Hipplebeck (05/23/02; 06:07:51MT msg#: 76357
$$$$ 326.7 $$$$ ProGold (05/30/02; 13:22:18MT msg#: 77031
$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ slingshot (05/24/02; 19:24:09MT msg#: 76519
$$$$ 326.5 $$$$ turkey hunter (05/30/02; 15:43:58MT msg#: 77061
$$$$ 326.4 $$$$ Kevin$ (5/29/02; 21:34:57MT msg#: 76929
$$$$ 326.3 $$$$ Yukon (05/30/02; 11:34:08MT msg#: 77018
$$$$ 326.2 $$$$ Econoclast (05/30/02; 20:35:31MT msg#: 77100
$$$$ 326.1 $$$$ Chap "X" by TC (05/30/02; 21:07:26MT msg#: 77107
$$$$ 326.0 $$$$ Broken Tee (5/23/02; 15:38:46MT msg#: 76416

$$$$ 325.8 $$$$ ore stone (05/30/02; 12:52:11MT msg#: 77027
$$$$ 325.7 $$$$ OZ (05/26/02; 23:20:25MT msg#: 76635
$$$$ 325.6 $$$$ Artie Farkle (05/30/02; 14:08:01MT msg#: 77040
$$$$ 325.5 $$$$ steady (05/24/02; 15:26:22MT msg#: 76503
$$$$ 325.4 $$$$ Renny (5/28/02; 18:39:54MT msg#: 76809
$$$$ 325.3 $$$$ Frosty (5/28/02; 17:48:48MT msg#: 76806
$$$$ 325.2 $$$$ Black Blade (05/30/02; 12:32:15MT msg#: 77025
$$$$ 325.1 $$$$ Au-some (5/29/02; 19:43:11MT msg#: 76912
$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Around The Corner (5/23/02; 02:17:38MT msg#: 76350
$$$$ 324.9 $$$$ THX-1138 (05/22/02; 16:45:28MT msg#: 76279
$$$$ 324.8 $$$$ Yellow Metal (05/22/02; 16:51:55MT msg#: 76280
$$$$ 324.7 $$$$ Gimli_ (05/30/02; 14:28:18MT msg#: 77042
$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Graefin (05/22/02; 13:33:35MT msg#: 76257
$$$$ 324.5 $$$$ Q (05/30/02; 10:44:28MT msg#: 77013
$$$$ 324.4 $$$$ Bound Spirit (05/30/02; 10:40:25MT msg#: 77011
$$$$ 324.3 $$$$ Shermag (05/30/02; 14:58:38MT msg#: 77048
$$$$ 324.2 $$$$ Rock (05/22/02; 13:06:37MT msg#: 76254
$$$$ 324.1 $$$$ jlfletc (05/30/02; 17:04:49MT msg#: 77067
$$$$ 324.0 $$$$ Golden Bear (05/30/02; 07:46:42MT msg#: 76987
$$$$ 323.9 $$$$ Alchemist (05/30/02; 08:11:16MT msg#: 76993
$$$$ 323.8 $$$$ Knallgold (05/30/02; 09:38:57MT msg#: 77003*
$$$$ 323.8 $$$$ Yellow Jacket (05/30/02; 20:49:01MT msg#: 77104
$$$$ 323.7 $$$$ Trurl (5/29/02; 21:07:00MT msg#: 76922
$$$$ 323.6 $$$$ VanRip (05/22/02; 21:58:11MT msg#: 76323

$$$$ 323.1 $$$$ goldenboy (5/30/02; 07:24:16MT msg#: 76983

$$$$ 322.6 $$$$ misetich (5/23/02; 03:05:56MT msg#: 76351

$$$$ 321.5 $$$$ RobertG (5/23/02; 19:23:59MT msg#: 76438

$$$$ 320.4 $$$$ Jimbo (05/22/02; 14:31:21MT msg#: 76264

$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ 18K (5/23/02; 03:47:11MT msg#: 76353

$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (05/22/02; 17:52:38MT msg#: 76284

$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ YGM (05/22/02; 13:29:47MT msg#: 76256

$$$$ 319.0 $$$$ Houston (5/25/02; 12:57:47MT msg#: 76551
$$$$ 318.9 $$$$ Jon (5/29/02; 15:05:27MT msg#: 76888

$$$$ 318.5 $$$$ EagleOne (05/22/02; 21:26:49MT msg#: 76318

$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ onlychild (05/22/02; 15:10:37MT msg#: 76269

$$$$ 317.5 $$$$ balzac (05/23/02; 07:33:25MT msg#: 76363

$$$$ 317.2 $$$$ Tommy P (05/23/02; 07:00:52MT msg#: 76361

$$$$ 317.0 $$$$ nickel62 (05/26/02; 09:20:46MT msg#: 76585

$$$$ 316.5 $$$$ cwa (05/24/02; 08:04:10MT msg#: 76481

$$$$ 316.0 $$$$ luckypierre (05/25/02; 15:52:53MT msg#: 76555

$$$$ 315.8 $$$$ Brett Woods (05/27/02; 21:19:19MT msg#: 76720
$$$$ 315.7 $$$$ law (05/27/02; 23:56:54MT msg#: 76732

$$$$ 315.4 $$$$ ausome (05/22/02; 18:51:28MT msg#: 76296

$$$$ 314.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (05/22/02; 17:51:17MT msg#: 76283

$$$$ 314.5 $$$$ Pippin (05/23/02; 07:14:36MT msg#: 76362

$$$$ 313.5 $$$$ Topaz (5/25/02; 08:44:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 76541

$$$$ 312.5 $$$$ AUtistic (05/22/02; 17:50:02MT msg#: 76282

$$$$ 308.6 $$$$ kludge (05/23/02; 08:11:29MT msg#: 76365

$$$$ 298.5 $$$$ Mexican (05/27/02; 15:33:32MT msg#: 76690
===
<;-)




The CoinGuy (05/30/02; 21:39:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 77110)
$$$$328.70$$$$
Hello Gandy, All...

Looks like i got back in town just in the nick of time...

In the past, I've used TA to determine which way I thought the paper contract was headed, and this method turned out to be a losing proposition. Thought I'd go with guessing, like most others.

The(physical)CoinGuy

steady (05/30/02; 21:27:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 77109)
contest
cant we end the contest with todays close.

FYI -- the June COMEX Contract SETTLEMENT price today (Thursday) was $325.5 ----BUT the range on the day was
between $326.7 and $323.5 !!!!!!!!!!!!!

id have won.

what are the chances of 325.5 two days in a row/ about as good as the cabal winning this battle i say>
as someone once said here the war is won , yet the battle rages. go gata!

Solomon Weaver (05/30/02; 21:18:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 77108)
Gandalf....a nomination on letting purist ahead of me in line.
I notice that purist (new poster) has chosen a slot which is already taken...but that the slot above me is still empty.

I would be highly honored to have this new fellow be given the 10 mark above me....

Poor old Solomon


TownCrier (05/30/02; 21:07:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 77107)
$$$$ 326.1 $$$$
I am posting this on behalf of a chap without a password who e-mailed just moments ago, justifiably concerned that there would not be time to get a posting handle assigned to him before the deadline. He's promised us that he will join the discussion in due course. Let's hope he does.

He didn't provide a commentary for his choice of prices so I will do one for him to make this a valid entry. Ahem... here it is:

Friday being first notice day for the June contract will result in a brief bit of selling pressure as longs with small pockets are washed out. Additionally, with August now becoming the active month, buying pressure on the June contract will abate, therefore the price tomorrow will settle much nearer the earth than the moon, somewhere in the vicinity of the optimistic price this gentleman has selected.

R.


Cavan Man (05/30/02; 21:07:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 77106)
Hung Low and Dr. Fat (did I get that right?)
Why no upward movement in Asia? Why is the upward action in western markets? What's up with that? $325 appears to be the new Maginot line eh?

Cavan Man (05/30/02; 21:04:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 77105)
Hey R Powell....
Yes, it is getting exciting. BTW, I can only watch and wait. I think GATA et al is likely on the money but who really knows? Since gold is and always will be political dynamite IMHO, the real market is opaque. Good luck...CM

Yellow Jacket (05/30/02; 20:49:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 77104)
PRICE GUESS
$$$$323.8$$$$
Dollar and stocks due for a one day bounce...maybe.

Yellow Metal (05/30/02; 20:48:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 77103)
re :A Perennially Praiseworthy Protagonist of PM's Permutations
R Powell said.

"Properly prepared plump poultry propitiously
processed produces prophetically perfect price predictions.
Good luck to all.
Rich"

Nuthin like a man of letters ( well one letter "P") to point the way !

Loved the post !
As Tiny Tim said."God bless us every one"
A little silly celebrating may be in order.


purist (05/30/02; 20:43:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 77102)
The real thing?
$$$$$327.20$$$$$

After lurking here for 3 years, finally I post something. I am amazed at the diversity and creativity of the posts here. I also use this site as a quick check of important world events or websites of interest. I gave up on the "other" website after discovering this one, due to the respect most posters show for each other here.

Why my choice? Judging by the orderly increase in the POG over the last few weeks, I suspect it is still being controlled in some manner. This a gradual rise is underway. No surprises.

My theory is that one of two things is underway:
1. The lack of volatility might be a way for some big players to change their positions without getting slaughtered. Then the POG will stay high indefinitely.

2. Or, perhaps the gradual change is necessary so that the masses aren't alerted that the rise has begun, and by the time they'll realise it, the parties that have been buying on the way up can sell back to them and net a handsome profit. Then some country (it's getting kind of lame, but it seems to do the trick) will announce finding a pile of gold that the intend to put on the market, to run the POG down again.



The Victorian (05/30/02; 20:41:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 77101)
gold price guess
Okay, I may as well take a stab at this. If the following number is not taken I shall guess $$$$329.9$$$$
No particular reason, just wishful thinking, as I would love to see POG crash through the 327 barrier and continue upwards once again.

Econoclast (05/30/02; 20:35:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 77100)
$$$$$$$ 326.20 $$$$$$$$
I decided to take a stab since there are so few openings left around the current "price".
I think we will stay in a tight range tomorrow. The time for fireworks is close but I just don't feel it's here quite yet. JP Morgan says this rally is stopping at $330. For the recent past, they've had the final word, therefore, that's the number I'm looking for. When we pass that, all bets are off, we're off to the races.
Can the shorts/banks take it below 325? That was my question to myself. The next number open on the downside is $1.70 away. I chose to be mildly bullish in the paper sense. This thing really is getting away from them. We've all been waiting and watching patiently, is everyone truly ready for what's coming? I'm not, but I think it's coming anyway.

Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 20:30:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 77099)
THANKS ALL !!! My QUICK count to this point is -- 121 Entries
WOWSERS --- Thanks for the FLOOD of entries ! I am sorry, but as Black Blade has said "the line in the sand" is being defended by the Cabal and the ORCS are coming in droves to be slaughtered by the Goldhearts !! I was rather busy today, but happy to see that you all did well. Only two entries that still have to be "solved".
NOW, to the small TABLEROUND as the BOSS says that, "IF I do not come now", it shall be given to "SPOT" and "SPIKE" !
<;-)

R Powell (05/30/02; 20:29:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 77098)
Cavan Man
The markets may just be as screwed up as you and those you mentioned think. If the price skyrockets, margin calls will force many out, rules concerning margin will probably change and the market makers may even intervene with liguidation only orders. There may be some newly thought out interference.
Still, I think the exchange will survive and can be traded, carefully, very carefully! There may come a time to get out entirely but, pardon the expression, I always hedge my bets. Again, just one opinion. I don't always search for the safest or most secure and still believe there's nothing guaranteed other than death and taxes. I'm not even entirely sure of these. "Only my dying will tell" Blood, Sweat and Tears.
It is getting exciting, no?
Rich

Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 20:14:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 77097)
Since you are (I believe) DOWNUNDER and may be asleep ----
Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 18:55:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 77078)
NOTICE to Sir Knallgold !!! Duplicate Entry - PLEASE try again!!!
Knallgold (05/30/02; 09:38:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 77003)
$$$$$323.9$$$$$$
======
How about the available $323.8 ?
<;-)

Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 20:11:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 77096)
Thanks Sir Sangrelli --- GOT YA !
sangrelli (05/30/02; 20:07:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 77094)
2nd try

Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 20:09:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 77095)
COUNTDOWN to Midnight in Denver !!
Less than FOUR HOURS to go in the POG Contest !
FYI -- the June COMEX Contract SETTLEMENT price today (Thursday) was $325.5 ----BUT the range on the day was between $326.7 and $323.5 !!!!!!!!!!!!!
<;-)

sangrelli (05/30/02; 20:07:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 77094)
2nd try
ok $$$$331.7$$$$
I feel the fear factor is going to meet the stong bull players. The bulls (Dr No Hung Fat or whoever); are ready to make em sweat bullets. The bulls know gold has been getting attention and just a little push will cause new blood on the sidelines to jump in if we surpass a major resistance point. Plus, an added bonus of short covering will kick in. So, the extra money it costs to challage the shorts is peanuts compared to what's going to happen when the public (albiet desperate for a fix (new sector to make em money))jump in. The planets are alligned in the house of the golden bull; this rare phenonom happens only once in an investers lifetime. A caveate being any pullback ie DROOY falls below $5 you may encounter a margin call if you are pushing it.
cheers
gs

Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 20:00:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 77093)
ATTENTION Sir Sangrelli !! Previously Entry -- Please TRY AGAIN !
sangrelli (05/30/02; 19:09:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 77080)
my guess
I would have posted earlier but it took a while to get my password.I say $$$$330.0$$$$, we may have a massive number of contracts trade tomarrow. A good 5 point or more jump is in the cards. I think gold bugs have been beat for so long, that their naysayers by nature.I will also guess that gold will hit $400 by October.
best o luck & I like the fourm.
gs
===
WELCOME -- Glad you made it, but sorry someone had the same idea.
<;-)

Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 19:56:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 77092)
ATTENTION SIR Boxman -- You are so correct and so late !!
Boxman (05/30/02; 17:55:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 77072)
Contest
$$$324.40$$$ Not to scientific, not much was available in the $324.00 range.

Not to be a buttinsky, but Hektor (77047) and Pilgrims Gold (77057) may have a problem with their guesstimats, as my understanding is the amounts are to be rounded in dimes.
===
Your choice was previously taken !! PLEASE try again !
You are soooo CORRECT about the two entries -- they must be in TENTHS !
Thanks -- NOW TRY AGAIN, Please
<;-)

Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 19:53:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 77091)
Sir Hektor --- since it was the second try -- I moved it to the open spot!
Hektor (05/30/02; 18:58:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 77079)
$$$$328.90$$$$
Since it has to be rounded to the dime. Hope that isn't taken.
==
How about 328.8 !!
<;-)


Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 19:42:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 77089)
WOWSERS -- You are fast in CORRECTIONS Sir Canuck --THANKS
Canuck (05/30/02; 17:43:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 77071)
POG guessing contest
I see Mr. Pie has 328.10. A new theory. They lose it large tomorrow and June closes at $366.00

Yeah, that's what will happen, TSHTF tomorrow and POG hits....................

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$366.00$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 19:41:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 77088)
NOTICE Sir Canuck -- Previously Chosen Price -- Please try again !!
Canuck (05/30/02; 17:36:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 77070)
POG guessing contest
$$$$$$$$328.10$$$$$$$$
Might be an interesting day (haven't they all been lately?). I think 328 is a 'line in the sand' as well as 325, 330, 337, etc.etc. I believe we will be between 325-328; too much pain yet for the 'managers'.
===
This was taken previously!!
<;-(


Chris Powell (05/30/02; 19:36:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 77087)
Another MiningWeb story about AfLease donation to GATA
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1127
TheMiningWeb.com reports again about the big
donation to GATA from Afrikander Lease:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1127

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 19:33:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 77086)
NOTICE to SIR Pilgrims Gold == INVALID entry ! Please Try Again
Pilgrims Gold (05/30/02; 15:26:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 77057)
$$$$ 327.45 $$$$
my uneducated guess
===
Must be in TENTHS and all in that range were preciously taken !
<;-(


Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 19:28:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 77085)
SIR Strad Master's MYSTERY Question !
(05/30/02; 15:00:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 77050)
Mystified
How is the final price for the contest winning going to be determined? The INO listing at the left of the USA Gold page fixed the POG at $325.40 while the Kitco chart fixed it at $326.20 Why is there such a discrepancy? Which can be relied upon to be correct? Is there a better place to find a reliable POG price?
===
Please read the RULES slowly !! The COMEX JUNE Contract Settlement Price is the CORRECT PRICE AND WINNING Number!
OK?
<;-)

Cavan Man (05/30/02; 19:27:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 77084)
4th to nomination
Good show miner49er!

PS to R Powell: My friend, if the gold market is as screwed up as GATA, Howe, Veneroso, Sinclair and HS say it is than one must honestly admit that in an expolosion deriving its' fury from any one or combination of different sources, ALL BETS ARE OFF. Good luck....CM

Cavan Man (05/30/02; 19:23:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 77083)
Hello miner49er
After three years of vary careful study and analysis, I have reached the same conclusions. I cannot thank you enough for your recent contribution here; sophia! Good luck and Godspeed to you in each and every future endeavor.
Sincerely......CM

Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 19:23:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 77082)
NOTICE to Sir Hektor --- INVALID entry -- Please try again !!
Hektor (05/30/02; 14:49:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 77047)
(No Subject)
$$$$327.87$$$$
They will try to hold it down to $325, but will not be able to keep it below even $327.
===
Tenths only please, and all were taken in that range !!
<;-(


R Powell (05/30/02; 19:13:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 77081)
3rd to the nomination
Of miner49er's 77006.
YGM initiated the nomination and the Mr. Gresham from western MA. seconded it. May I provide the third.
I don't agree entirely with everything predicted in the essay, as I believe the markets will survive even if the price of physical trading off market usurps for a time the price determining power of gold. Much (quantity) is exchanged that never passes through the exchange but whatever the market determines as the price and from whatever source makes that determination, the markets will reflect it. They have to, if they are anywhere near free markets. If POG was innately worth more in dollar terms than the market price, the market would immediately reflect this when large numbers of longs stood for delivery. As long as delivery is allowed then the price will adjust accordingly. If there is more demand than supply, then price rationing in unheard of amounts may occur. Only if there is no product to be traded will the market close. No facts here, all opinion only.
However, this is one man's opinion and in no way detracts from the fine thought and presentation of miner49er's work. Well done!
Rich

sangrelli (05/30/02; 19:09:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 77080)
my guess
I would have posted earlier but it took a while to get my password.I say $$$$330.0$$$$, we may have a massive number of contracts trade tomarrow. A good 5 point or more jump is in the cards. I think gold bugs have been beat for so long, that their naysayers by nature.I will also guess that gold will hit $400 by October.
best o luck & I like the fourm.
gs

Hektor (05/30/02; 18:58:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 77079)
$$$$328.90$$$$
Since it has to be rounded to the dime. Hope that isn't taken.

Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 18:55:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 77078)
NOTICE to Sir Knallgold !!! Duplicate Entry - PLEASE try again!!!
Knallgold (05/30/02; 09:38:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 77003)
$$$$$323.9$$$$$$

kramrich (05/30/02; 18:54:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 77077)
password test
is working

Henri (05/30/02; 18:50:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 77076)
We in the US have just become less free...again
http://news.attbusiness.net/articles/D7JRBD2G2.html
Fascism creeps in at night wearing black velvet slippers

Paper Avalanche (05/30/02; 18:49:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 77075)
the silver spread is back
when I originally posted my observation of the silver bid/ask spread I noticed that the spread decreased back to the normal 4 cents immediately after I posted. I just checked thebulliondesk again to find that the $4.95/$5.09 spread has remained for the last 20 minutes.... hmmmm

Thanks Rich for your read on this. POS will at least follow, if not lead, gold.

When the paper avalanche has run its course, all will gaze upwards to the top of the mountain to see that only silver and gold remain.

Buy you some gold from our good and gracious host.

PA

BLUENOSE (05/30/02; 18:42:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 77074)
GOLD GUESSING CONTEST
My guess is
$$$$$$$332.70$$$$$$$$ or the next available (higher)

Gold is going to jump tomorrow and then really take off in June. The Cabal is going to lose control in the very near future. All GATA's great work is finally showing positive results. I also feal that the world situation is deteriorating daily which scares me very much.



R Powell (05/30/02; 18:09:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 77073)
Bid-ask spreads // liberty
I have noticed that the speculative investors have an extremely large long position in both gold and silver. The commercials have an extremely short position with very few long contracts left to sell as offsets. The specs don't want to sell as long as prices are trending up so the commercials are the only selling source to fill buy orders, (outside of profit takers). I wouldn't be surprised if they become more and more reluctant to sell, especially if it means holding more naked short positions (as opposed to selling a previously bought contract or offsetting). We may see this reluctance in greater bid-ask spreads. The same amount of excess buying as compared to selling, if it continues, should exert more and more upward pressure on prices- Or - the prices may collapse and then the specs will unload their huge long position by selling bigtime. Imho, explosion imminent, direction unknown. We might get to see the outer hull integrety fail and a full worp core breech.
I don't favor technical trading or price prediction based on technicals but the COT numbers now show positions tightly wound. I'd guess something has to give before too long and the bid-ask spread may give a little warning. It may become much larger.
Those who read Adam Hamilton's work have probably noticed his excitement at being a witness to what he calls a post bubble burst market decline. His enthuasism is wonderful. If the specs hold their long positions, we may be able to witness a metals market meltup. It has the potential to produce a mania. No prediction here, just think the potential is present. Hopefully, all those predicting dire economic results of higher POG and POS will be proven wrong. Shake up maybe, armageddon?, I hope not.
I guess this is just a rehash of the good guys vs. the shorts that we read here daily. Free markets versus manipulation. Honest money versus fiat debt. Limited government versus out of control deficit spending. Liberty versus fascism. Perhaps I see and describe it a little differently from a trader's point of view. It's all politically connected.
Any thoughts?
Rich

Boxman (05/30/02; 17:55:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 77072)
Contest
$$$324.40$$$ Not to scientific, not much was available in the $324.00 range.

Not to be a buttinsky, but Hektor (77047) and Pilgrims Gold (77057) may have a problem with their guesstimats, as my understanding is the amounts are to be rounded in dimes.

Canuck (05/30/02; 17:43:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 77071)
POG guessing contest
I see Mr. Pie has 328.10. A new theory. They lose it large tomorrow and June closes at $366.00

Yeah, that's what will happen, TSHTF tomorrow and POG hits....................

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$366.00$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Canuck (05/30/02; 17:36:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 77070)
POG guessing contest
$$$$$$$$328.10$$$$$$$$
Might be an interesting day (haven't they all been lately?). I think 328 is a 'line in the sand' as well as 325, 330, 337, etc.etc. I believe we will be between 325-328; too much pain yet for the 'managers'.

I hope Invisible Hand shows up with his bulldozer to remove the beach!!!!!!

Mr Gresham (05/30/02; 17:33:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 77069)
Randy: miner49er
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/hommel052902.html
Thanks for putting his posts up on the chalkboard. Did I hear a Nomination that I could second? (I feel like I should give someone else a chance -- it might seem too automatic coming from a "miner fan" like me ;-)

Jason Hommel wrote a pretty good one "Impending Gold Futures Default" over at neighboring Castle GE, which sounds like he's read FOA thoroughly plus filled in some of the connective thinking himself, with the great line ("They bet a bank run will happen..."), that had me LOL in the Libary:

"The coming rush into gold will be like another bank run that precedes the next gold contract default. Waiting for the delivery date of a gold futures contract that is two months away would be as foolish as standing in the line that's two months long during a bank run that you are betting on will occur. Why put yourself at the end of the line of a hoped-for bank run, when you can get in front of the line by buying gold in the spot market? Literally, that's what gold futures contract longs do. They bet a bank run will happen, and then they get at the very end of the line. And if and when the time and opportunity comes that they get near the bank window and they might be next, they jump right to the end of the line again as they roll over their contracts. I believe it's total insanity to do such a thing. "

And, yes, I will distance myself from an essay that refers to the "Protocols..." document, which might be read for sociological, financial, or pathological insight, but is of questionable lineage, which Hommel, to his credit, alludes to.

R Powell (05/30/02; 17:22:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 77068)
Paper Avalanche
That large bid-ask spread may have simply been an error. Or, in the extremely thin trading in silver at this hour, it may have reflected a sell at 5.09 or higher order. Sometimes limit orders are placed just to see if there are any takers. If someone placed a buy at the market order and the 5.09 was the only sell order, then the buy would be filled at 5.09. This is unusual in spot prices or current months but sometimes happens in obscure trades like, maybe, the bid-ask in the March 2003, $350 gold call. I sometimes leave baited traps like these lying around. Who knows, maybe I'll catch some shorts desperate enough to buy at any price. Paper games. Fun, but dangerous!
Paper trading has many hazards and imho requires extreme care and limit orders. Market orders are always dangerous.
Rich

jlfletc (05/30/02; 17:04:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 77067)
Contest
$$$$$324.10$$$$$ I think POG is going to pull back a bit tomorrow. I think the two day pullback in the XAU might be telling....

spike (05/30/02; 16:59:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 77066)
Carl H
Vatican Gold

Re message 77015 regarding the Vatican being coerced to part with their gold by Bush. According to Vatican Assassins, Eric Phelps 2001, the Jesuits are at the apex of the carbal pyramidal structure.

Black Blade. I live in the peace and quiet of NZ but with access to cable tv CNBC Europe, Asia, US, CNN, internet, newspapers etc but prefer to get my news from you. Thanks for the amazing effort. If you ever make it out to kiwi land I will love to buy you a beer.

I think gold will break free any day now $$$$$341.00$$$$ because increasing numbers are becoming aware of the dangers of fiat munny as a store of value.

Spike


TownCrier (05/30/02; 16:34:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 77065)
Talking the "strong dollar" talk
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Currency%20Europe&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=euro_currency&s=APPaFxxUdV2hpdGUg
You know trouble is brewing when obligatory "official speak" becomes frequent and runs counter to the evidence.

Excerpts:

Washington, May 30 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar has fallen 6.3 percent against the yen and 5.1 percent against the euro so far this year, weakening even as U.S. officials continue to say the administration supports a strong dollar.

``The Bush administration's position on the dollar has not changed,'' AFX quoted Lindsey as saying. ``Markets on a day-to-day and week-to-week basis are going to go up or down. I don't think that constitutes a trend.''
------(click URL for full text)-------

The trick is to find a way to preserve your official reputation after many denials or proclamations are laid bare as being baseless.

Will you be a gold owner when it shakes free, or will you be chasing it, perhaps paralyzed by frustration in awaiting the next "buying opportunity" when there are no dips? It could unfold that way at any time.

R.


Paper Avalanche (05/30/02; 16:25:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 77064)
Big bid/ask spread for silver
I just checked thebulliondesk and saw that the bid for silver is $4.95 and the ask is $5.09. What does such a large bid/ask spread mean?

Thanks.
PA

R Powell (05/30/02; 16:13:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 77063)
Contest
$$$$$$$ 339.90 $$$$$$$
As is my custom for proper price prediction I selected the plumpest Rhode Island Red chicken I could find and red the entrails at midnight last. I fear however my readings will lack accuracy as the new moon was the 12th. Any readings taken on any day other than the new moon must be adjusted and with an adjustment of over two weeks, well the chances of astrological error are ..astronomical.
Be that as it may, $339.90 is the adjusted figure.
When reading entrails, please remember the primordial prescription premise,
Properly prepared plump poultry propitiously
processed produces prophetically perfect price predictions.
Good luck to all.
Rich

Chris Powell (05/30/02; 16:03:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 77062)
Interview elaborates on huge donation to GATA
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1126
Interview at TheMiningWeb.com with Quintin George
of Trinity Holdings, a big stakeholder in Afrikander
Lease, elaborates on the company's huge donation
to GATA:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1126

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

turkey hunter (05/30/02; 15:43:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 77061)
gold price contest
$$$$$$$$ 326.50 $$$$$$$ I think they will hold it close to the 325 level. But I think they could lose control anytime.

goldfool (05/30/02; 15:41:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 77060)
Black Blade - Line in the sand
A more appropriate analogy would be "Defending a line in a ledger (hedger) book."

Black Blade (05/30/02; 15:29:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 77059)
Quick Notes
http://test.crbindex.com/crb/quotes_crbcomp.asp

Stradmaster: Try the link above. It isn't spot but closest month contract. Also, bulliondesk can also be a source for the POG.

Jimbo: The Fed will raise interest rates in order to stem the flow of cash out of the US by offering "attractive" rates of return. However, the weakening USD is likely to continue partly due to the excessive increase in money supply. Money growth rate was at about 10% last time I checked (though I don't know what the growth rate is now). Some analysts like Larry Kudlow use Gold as a barometer for determining where rates should be (though I think that is a rather simplistic view).

Central Asia -

Note: The Pentagon has formulated plans for a mass evacuation of about 60,000 US citizens in Central Asia should war break out in the region. The State Dept. is expected to make the call to US citizens soon. Meanwhile Defense Donald Rumsfeld is in the area to talk down the antagonists – will it work? Not so far! Dubya is now making public noises about the conflict.

Also, the government (Pentagon maybe?) has announced that Al Qaeda may have shoulder launch missile capability. Hmmm…

Note: Of sideline interest – A Black Hawk helicopter crashed on Mt. Hood while trying to rescue amateur climbers. Impressive footage of a tragic accident was just shown on TV. Three amateur climbers have died this last week in a snowstorm on the mountain.

"Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

Gotta Run - Back tomorrow



techbull.... (05/30/02; 15:27:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 77058)
$$$$ 348.40 $$$$
I think shorts might want to cover a liitle before the weekend.

Pilgrims Gold (05/30/02; 15:26:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 77057)
$$$$ 327.45 $$$$
my uneducated guess

Pilgrims Gold (05/30/02; 15:24:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 77056)
TEST 1ST SIGNON
TEST
1ST SIGNON

TownCrier (05/30/02; 15:21:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 77055)
Strad Master's "price of gold"
I've tried previously to point out to our readers how the "spot price" for gold is largely a derivation from the dominant market in "paper gold" and "future gold". That the kitco price and INO price differ slightly should come as no surprise as each independently attempt to arrive at (distill) a viable "spot" price.

The contest is Gandalf's baby, but I think I'm safe in saying that our contest is not based on the "spot" price, but rather on Friday's settlement price for a specific instrument known as the June gold contract traded on the COMEX exchange. Today it settled at $325.5.

You can monitor its the "price" of this contract using the "24-Hr Quotes" link found to the upper right corner of the forum, three links over from the link that allows you to "Post a New Message". Do you see it?

R.

sstins (05/30/02; 15:20:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 77054)
$$$$345.00$$$$
Gonna be fun tomorrow??? Bullion has got some ground to make up on the stocks.

On the flip side...
What continues to bother me are the past BOE sales and the bold statements of analysts like Kaplan and that Smith guy. You'd think that the BOE would have little more of a clue than the most. In other words they would not have sold if they felt like the POG would maintain a sustained rally. I can't help but wonder if the BOE will be vindicated in the near term. Outfits like the BOE are just not that stupid are they??? That along with the unwavering negative bias of the two aforementioned esteemed gold analyst tends to unnerve me.

Here's to $345





Waverider (05/30/02; 15:10:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 77053)
***** $329.50 *****
USAGold - Sir Kosares - thank you for your generosity in running this price guessing contest.

I ran a multiple linear regression with my predictor variables being the USDollarIndex, South Asian war fears, Japanese Gold buying prior to Moody's downgrade on May 31st, and short covering. I calculated POG should rise 1% by tomorrow's close, hence $329.50! :)

Gandalf - thanks for your attentiveness and work to make the price guessing contest happen! I'm (again) tied up the next few days with a conference so should my guess be a duplicate, then please accept $329.60. Cheers!

Black Blade (05/30/02; 15:09:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 77052)
Re: Jimbo

The Rand is strengthening and may have some influence as the costs are in Rand and the product (Gold) is sold in US Dollars. However, the more overriding influence is the fact that many investment houses have downgraded Gold investments (I think most here know why) and there is also a rush to lock in profits. However, the trend for Gold is clearly higher. In the case of HGMCY there are two things going on, one is a threat of continued strikes and but yet they have hedged the Rand vs. the US Dollar. So obviously there is something more than the currency exchange rate going on here. It is more likely psychological than anything else. As far as GFI is concerned, I think that it is a similar concern as they are more diversified around the globe. There is genuine fear among the bankers and the major investment houses as the POG must be kept in check. If the derivative positions and hedge books of certain institutions and producers go tits up, then we will see an economic calamity that will make LTCM a mere footnote in the annuls of Wall Street.

- Black Blade


Jimbo (05/30/02; 15:04:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 77051)
Have one on me!
Have a beer (or two) on me, Black Blade. You deserve it after writing that excellent response to my post ("Inflation and US Dollar"). Actually, my question was prompted by a recent editorial by Brady Willett (fallstreet.com), in which he says...

"Quite frankly, if a U.S. economic rebound can continue to be patched together and the Fed is preparing to raise interest rates come August (stable to strong dollar) the gold bull run will be over. By contrast, if the expected unexpected happens the gold bull will live on. Only one thing is for certain: the U.S. stock markets (economy) and the gold bull market cannot survive together for very long."

Made me wonder why the Fed raising interest rates would end the gold bull?

Strad Master (05/30/02; 15:00:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 77050)
Mystified
How is the final price for the contest winning going to be determined? The INO listing at the left of the USA Gold page fixed the POG at $325.40 while the Kitco chart fixed it at $326.20 Why is there such a discrepancy? Which can be relied upon to be correct? Is there a better place to find a reliable POG price?

Black Blade (05/30/02; 14:59:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 77049)
Merrill may just have buried itself
http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/fpcomment/columnists/story.html?f=/stories/20020528/362779.html

Evidence from Spitzer probe will trigger lawsuits

Snippit:

Diane Francis - Financial Post

In my 20 years as a business journalist I have never seen such an immoral, and serious, case as the one settled last week between Merrill Lynch Inc. and the New York State Attorney General. It is simply the tip of an iceberg that will see many Wall Street players put out of business or go to jail.

The evidence is so egregious that there's no doubt that class-action lawsuits will bury the firm and its partners. What follows, if they all are proven to be fact, are examples contained in the affidavit by Eric Dinallo, chief of the investment protection bureau and counsel to Attorney General Eliot Spitzer. The SEC is investigating.


Black Blade: My thoughts exactly. Also I had stated as much previously. These Pied Pipers of Wall Street have led (and continue to lead) many unsuspecting investors to financial ruin. I count on massive shareholder lawsuits and Merrill Lynch is not the only one. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Solomon, and many others are in the same mess up to their collective necks. Even though the SEC and the NY AG have dropped the ball, the shareholder may now hold all the cards as the regulators and criminal prosecutors have dug up the evidence.



Shermag (05/30/02; 14:58:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 77048)
$$$$324.3$$$$
The line in the sand seems to be around 325. If they hold it another day, this is the closest open spot.

Hektor (05/30/02; 14:49:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 77047)
(No Subject)
$$$$327.87$$$$
They will try to hold it down to $325, but will not be able to keep it below even $327.

Jimbo (05/30/02; 14:48:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 77046)
Stronger Rand, weaker GFI, HGMCY?
I call upon those of you with vast investing experience in gold to answer this question: Is the improving Rand creating declining SA gold profits, particularly for stocks such as GFI and HGMCY? Since joining the NYSE a few weeks ago, GFI has lost more than 20 percent of its value. HGMCY isn't far behind. Is this normal profit taking, or are SA gold stocks in for a rough time?

Graefin (05/30/02; 14:48:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 77045)
9/11 = 9911 Coincidence or More?
Take a look at the Dow official closing number today = 9911.69 Any thoughts?
- Gräfin

Black Blade (05/30/02; 14:47:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 77044)
Dollar's Wobbly Foundation Becomes Apparent
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Latest%20Columns&touch=1&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_bbco&T=markets_fgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=blk&s=APPT1lBUjRG9sbGFy

Snippit:

Analysts are currently united in the view that the dollar is set to fall; the only question is how far and how fast. While such unanimity of opinion is generally a red flare for contrarians, the dollar does seem to have lost its supports. Or, more correctly, the foreign-exchange market collectively has just started to acknowledge the wobbly pegs.


Black Blade: The current account deficit as a cause is also cited. A nice article for Jimbo and everyone else to peruse in light of the weakening US Dollar and how it will affect the markets and by inference the POG.



Neubie (05/30/02; 14:42:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 77043)
Contest
$$$$$ 332.30 $$$$$
It's what my wife told me to guess!

Gimli_ (05/30/02; 14:28:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 77042)
$$$$ 324.70 $$$$
I think we'll slide below BB's proffered 'line in the sand' of $325. Anyway, the closet I can still get is $$$$ 324.70 $$$$ with the space that is left. I recently converted 2/3 of my PMM shares to fiat becasue I expect a short slide. Hope to buy them back for les soon. :-)) Gimli

TownCrier (05/30/02; 14:21:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 77041)
Fed injects funds to liquify banking system
With the fed funds market trading more than 0.1% above the FOMC target, the Fed's trading desk today added $16 billion in new reserves to the nation's banking system.

Of that, $5 billion were under terms of 28-day repos, $5.5 billion through 5-day, and another $5.5 through overnight RPs.

Bottom line: it's the same old same old. Everything I've said previously on this business (when I was in the habit of giving these updates daily) still stands, but here's an opportunity to put a topical spin on it all.

An FOMC voting member, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert McTeer, said today in a speech to the Montreal Economic Institute that he was worried about the "jobless" aspect of the currenct economic "recovery". In hoping that businesses might get to the point of rehiring unemployed workers, he went on to say, "We need to have investment rebound. The consumer can't continue to carry the whole burden of the U.S. recovery, and for investment to rebound we need for profit prospects to improve."

For our purposes here, as we contemplate our most prudent level for gold diversification, it is important to recognize that the condition for "profit" that president McTeer refers to could be met notionally, without regard for the purchasing power of that nominal "profit".

All the more reason to diversify into gold as a means to preserve your purchasing power against an environment in which the dollar will likely be brought to its knees -- officially if needs be, if not done otherwise.

R.

Artie Farkle (05/30/02; 14:08:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 77040)
(No Subject)
$$$$325.6$$$$
Just seems like good place to be.
PS Just got a coworker to buy her first 2 oz. of AU

YGM (05/30/02; 14:06:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 77039)
The Times' They Are A Changin!
CTV News 1...Canuck News Channel...(biz News Segment)
Analyst interviewed just now predicts Gold @ $510.00 in 18 months...Stated PDG/Aurion merger was bad biz...Aurion hedges(5.5 mill oz)coupled with PDG (8+ mill oz)was too much. PDG buying more liability....Nice to hear reality on TV Media for once!

Graefin (05/30/02; 13:50:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 77038)
Black Blade...msg #77036
WUNDERSCH... N post! Prima!
Gräfin

Graefin (05/30/02; 13:40:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 77037)
GoldnSilver2002...
Thank you for your "Enter the Dragon" commentary to bring us back to reality!
Peace!
- Gräfin

Black Blade (05/30/02; 13:40:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 77036)
Re: Jimbo – Inflation and US Dollar

It follows that if Alan Greenspan and the Fed raise interest rates then inflation may heat up. However, Gold rises in an inflationary environment and that is one function of Gold as portfolio insurance due to its wealth preservation value. Gold is undervalued as an asset and within a period of inflation it is quite possible that Gold could explode to the upside at a rate several times the rate of inflation as seen in the 1970's through 1980. Of course interest rates also hit double digits at the time.

The dollar has replaced gold for international trade obligations and especially so since the end of the dollar-gold link. The ultimate reserves that other countries hold are generally US dollars with a minor holding of Gold and other world currencies (although that is changing some with the intro of the Euro). The foreign countries pay their obligations in dollars. The worlds most valuable commodity id oil and oil is priced in US Dollars. What if the US Dollar weakens? We certainly cannot easily store a few barrels of oil. Though it has been suggested that many OPEC suppliers demand a form of payment in Gold.

The US Dollar is playing the role of gold for now. However, the US Dollar is also the currency of the United States of America and its value is subject to what happens in the U.S. economy whereas Gold is outside the system. It is a stateless currency without obligation to any country and it has a different role from the dollar. Whenever the US Dollar is threatened by the forces of inflation, Gold really "shines" since the value of Gold is denominated in US Dollars. Because of this unique relationship Gold will likely outperform any other investment when the value of the US Dollar declines in face of the ravages of inflation. That is the insurance that Gold provides. It also holds for periods of economic uncertainty such as deflation.

The US Dollar used to be "good as Gold" when there were stringent regulations tying Gold to the US Dollar. That link was broken and the ravages of inflation were seen in a rapidly rising POG. The gold standard was a rigidly enforced system of exchange rates that didn't vary. Speculating in currencies was difficult at best. Those days are gone. However, it is the strength of Gold that led to the break in the link between the US Dollar and Gold. Gold constrained politicians from spending money they did not have. Now they can spend with abandon until the system cracks under the weight of crushing debt. The major problem now is that the US Dollar is vulnerable due to the horrific account deficit. Once US investments fall and the S Dollar weakens, what foreigner will keep his cash in the US markets? He will lose value in the declining market value and be on the losing end of the exchange rate.

What about deflation? Well Gold was illegal for private ownership except with collectable coin and jewelry as per Franklin D. Roosevelt's executive order I 1933. The POG rose from about $35/oz to $42/oz after the Gold confiscation order was given. It was essentially an onerous tax on the American people. This was during the ravages of the Great Depression. However, if I may use an example. Though Gold was illegal, some people held shares in Homestake Mine as a sort of proxy. While the investments on Wall Street such as RCA, General Motors, etc. fell from hundreds of Dollars to pennies, the shares of Homestake rose several hundred percent. However, since the US Dollar was held in check and linked to the US Dollar (the Gold Standard) the US Dollar was actually considered "good as Gold". Today that link is broken. And as I just heard Robert Hormat of Goldman Sachs mention moments ago on CNBC – "Gold is the money of last resort" – in reference to the people of the Indian subcontinent. That's right, the ultimate money – or as I would say, "Portfolio Insurance".

Anyway, I am getting off the track here. Gold will perform its traditional function as insurance against the ravages of inflation, deflation, stagflation, war, etc. Gold is money when all other "money" fails. It does not require some government "policy" to function as money. 9,000 years of history won't be so easily brushed aside because some clown decided to call Gold a "Barbarous Relic". That is why so many modern day economists today are left stroking their sloped foreheads with there mouths agape wondering what's up with Gold.

I don't know if I answered your question but this was all off the cuff as I am in the process of getting ready to take off for a meeting (actually a street party with hopefully lots of free beer) with petroleum people in Gillette, WY tonight.

Cheers!

- Black Blade


TownCrier (05/30/02; 13:36:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 77035)
Bretton Woods receding in the rear view mirror
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020530/markets_forex_deutsche_1.html
HEADLINE: Deutsche Bank introduces new Forex indexes

NEW YORK, May 30 (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank has introduced a new set of indexes that track the performance of key currencies in global markets, part of an effort to treat foreign exchange as its own asset class.

At a conference on global foreign exchange on Wednesday, Fergus Lynch, Managing Director and head of index development at Deutsche, said the new "family" of indexes underscores the bank's belief "in the emergence of foreign exchange as an asset class." Therefore, he added, "it needs a set of analytics in its own right."

The indices are comprised of currency pairs of the five major global currencies: the U.S. dollar, euro, yen, Swiss franc and sterling, which are crossed against the units of 11 other industrialized nations.

---------(click URL for full text)------------

Despite a growing "coming to terms" by the marketplace with an infrastructure of floating currencies, gold -- PHYSICAL gold -- is still not priced correctly due to a legacy of dilution remaining from its days spent in monetary "officialdom". Old practices linger on and die hard... such is the effect of path dependence and historical inertia. But we're getting there. Each day is one step closer to a free market in gold.

Don't be caught at the end of the line.

R.

The Hoople (05/30/02; 13:35:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 77034)
$$$ 327.3
Sorry Gandalf, Canuck must have posted while I prepped mine.I'll be short this time so this will rush to the forum !!

YGM (05/30/02; 13:30:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 77033)
Yukon....
http://www.ude.net/verse/verse.html
Love your posting handle...So in keeping with it here's a link for you. Hope you find time to add your thoughts here more often...Helps to connect the dots...YGM.

Paper Avalanche (05/30/02; 13:24:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 77032)
$$$$$ 331.90 $$$$$$
Many thanks to miner for his contribution to the board today - that is definitely one for the hall of fame!!

Regarding the POG guessing contest, I think that things begin to get out of hand in early trading in asia tonight and we may see POG at $329+ on CNBC in the morning, then I believe we will see the noraml Friday afternoon rally upward past $335, but TPTB will use one of their few remaining "silver" bullets to keep things from getting too out of hand heading in to the weekend.

Limit-up days are literally only weeks (maybe only days) away, IMHO.

The paper avalanche has started.

PA

ProGold (05/30/02; 13:22:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 77031)
Gold Price
$$$$326.7$$$$$ Because gold and the truth are being set free...up, up and away!



Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 13:07:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 77030)
OOPS --- spoke too quick !!! NOTICE to The Hoople !!!
Sir Hoople --- You have duplicated an Entry !

PLEASE Try again and check the prior entries
==
Thanks
<;-)


Gandalf the White (05/30/02; 13:04:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 77029)
A BIG THANKS !! for really watching your Entries !!!
I can only check in and see that all Entries to this time, ARE GREAT !!! No duplicates !!!
Keep up the GREAT effort. Please check the prior listing and entries up to your entry !!
I shall return this evening to update the listing, AFTER the ORCS have been "descimated"
<;-)

The Hoople (05/30/02; 13:03:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 77028)
$$$ 327.4 $$$
We are witnessing an historic event unfold. What transpires the next few weeks or years could drastically affect the rest of our lives. No matter the current price of gold in dollars, fiat as a medium of wealth always fails. Every dollar higher is a recognition of further fiat failure. Tomorrow's COMEX close is but a small step in the relentless march down the fiat highway to hell. The rigging and suppressing is doomed to fail. I am priveledged to watch things unfold with astute people here at th