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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/30/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
compwiz4u
(04/30/02; 23:56:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 74661)
The idea is to create wealth not paper profits.
http://www.compwiz4u.com/images/gold.gif
Thanks for noticing my first post Mr. Gresham.
It's nice to be recognized when you enter a group.
What a rush this past week was, huh? This week's pullback is to be expected, however depressing it may feel.
I'm really enjoying these exhilarating up moves, especially now that we've broken through some major resistance at $305-310 with $300 proving it is now a support level for Gold.
This time sure looks and feels differently, as the mining shares’ expected price corrections are shallow and don't last long. Looking at their charts, it appears they are starting to go parabolic, as trend lines are getting steeper. A good example is Gold Fields, Ltd. (See Above link) It just shot through major resistance at 10 in a parabolic rise with short, shallow corrections as it broke through a 14-year downtrend.
I think we can forget most technical analysis tools now, as I believe a paradigm shift is occurring.
Aside from the nice technical breakout, I have a few reasons why I like Gold Fields.
Of course, most of us know they have good management, superlative assets & a decent dividend, but in the coming bull market, Gold Fields should be piling up incredible earnings and their dividend payout will be huge. On their Website, goldfields.co.za, they state: "It is the company's policy to pay around 50 per cent of its cash earnings as dividends." Therefore, you should get all your investment back in dividends before too long and you'll still own the stock. Finally, their listing on the NYSE as GFI, starting today, will put them among the elite and increase their liquidity and visibility immensely.
Of course, there are many other excellent miners like GG, MDG, & AEM, but GFI is my favorite.
There are so many short and long-term social and economic trends in gold's favor now that it seems like GFI and other miners are sure bets. However, we have to be careful of governmental intervention at some point. We must be sure to take profits along the way, but not too early. Set some goals and stick to them. Don't get greedy expecting even higher prices the next day as they may evaporate as Bullrider (04/30/02; 20:40:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 74649) stated in his Gold Essay about the end of the 1980 move. Use logic, not emotion. The idea is to create wealth not paper profits. The toughest part will be knowing when to sell, so plan now.
I dread the thought of an excess profits tax on the miners or a mine buyout by the US or other governments as their needs for real currency will be enormous with the coming depression. What would that do to your planned profits? As Bill Buckler says as a prelude to his excellent weekly Gold Commentary at the-privateer.com: "In any discussion of the future of Gold, or of the price of Gold, the first thing that must be realized is that Gold is a political metal."
If you take Bullrider's essay to its logical extreme, we could see a similar 25-fold increase from last year's $255 to $6,375 an ounce sometime this decade. After all, it went from the fixed price of $35 an ounce to $875 in 1980, if only for a moment.
The system is bankrupt so anything is possible.
Finally, I thank God for the internet, which at little or no cost, has allowed us to gather thoughts from the best minds in the world, research many government documents and bring us to the point where we can see what is actually occurring to the world's financial system. If we are wise, we can take advantage of that knowledge.
(Thanks to bigcharts.com for the GOLD chart.)
YGM
(04/30/02; 23:44:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 74660)
OCC, Derivatives Report 4th Q /01
http://www.occ.treas.gov/query/oop/qfullhit.htw?CiWebHitsFile=/ftp/release/2002%2D19.doc&CiRestriction=%20Derivatives%20Report%20&CiQueryFile=/query.idq&CiBeginHilite=%3CB%20CLASS=HIT%3E&CiEndHilite=%3C/B%3E&CiUserParam3=queryhit.htm&CiHiliteType=Full#CiTag0
Noteworthy Excerpt...
O NEWS RELEASE Comptroller of the Currency Administrator of National Banks,NR 2002-19,, FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: Kevin Mukri March 7, 2002 (202) 874-5770 OCC Reports Derivatives Volume Falls Below $50 Trillion WASHINGTON -- U.S. commercial banks saw earnings from cash instruments and derivatives activities drop $805 million, to $2.65 billion, in the fourth quarter of 2001, while the notional value of derivatives fell by $5.9 trillion, to $45.4 trillion. The drop in the notional value of derivatives from the previous three months was attributable to the merger of Chase Manhattan Bank and Morgan Guaranty Trust Co. Despite the elimination of contracts between those two large institutions, derivatives activities at U.S. banks rose slightly during the quarter, said Michael L. Brosnan, the OCC's Deputy Comptroller for Risk Evaluation. "The notional volumes at the other U.S. banks engaged in derivatives transactions increased $1 trillion during the quarter, reflecting the continued interest by customers of banks in risk management products," Mr. Brosnan said. In its fourth quarter report on bank derivatives, which was released today, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency noted that while the notional amount of derivatives is a reasonable reflection of business activity, it is not an amount at risk. The risk in a derivatives contract is a function of a number of variables, such as whether counterparties exchange notional principal, the volatility of the currencies or interest rates used as the basis for determining contract payments, the maturity and liquidity of contracts, and the creditworthiness of the counterparties in the transaction.
Noteworty Excerpt...
Total credit exposures for the top seven banks decreased to 158 percent of risk-based capital in the fourth quarter of 2001 from 322 percent in the third quarter. "The significant decline in notional volumes was the primary reason that current mark-to-market -more- exposure declined $19 billion and potential future exposure decreased $58 billion," Mr. Brosnan said. During the fourth quarter of 2001, banks charged-off $296 million from credit exposures associated with derivatives. "We expected charge-offs to begin to rise as the downturn translated into corporate bankruptcies and defaults," Mr. Brosnan said. "Most large companies use derivatives, so even though banks have collateral on lower rated exposures, the probability for charge-offs increases during economic downturns.
Noteworthy Excerpt...
The top seven commercial banks engaged in derivatives trading account for 96 percent of the total notional amount of derivatives in the commercial banking system, with more than 99 percent held by the top 25 banks.
Complete copy @ Link....
YGM
(04/30/02; 23:32:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 74659)
Risk Based Capital, OCC Bulletin.....From 100% to 20% w/ new Qualifications.
http://www.occ.treas.gov./ftp/bulletin/2002-13.txt
Excerpt...
OCC 2002-13
OCC Bulletin
Subject: Risk-Based Capital
Description: Final Rule
Date: April 9, 2002
TO: Chief Executive Officers of All National Banks,
Department and Division Heads, and All Examining
Personnel
PURPOSE
This bulletin transmits the final rule, "Risk-Based
Capital Standards: Claims on Securities Firms" that was
published in the Federal Register on April 9, 2002. The
rule permits banks to reduce the risk weight on certain
claims against qualifying securities firms from 100
percent to 20 percent.
Cont'd @ Link.....
YGM
(04/30/02; 23:10:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 74658)
More Tightening of Credit....
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APM9q6xWBVS5TLiBC
05/01 00:11
U.S. Banks Curb Corporate Loans in Steepest Decline in 30 Years
By George Stein
New York, May 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. banks have been hitting the brakes on loans to companies harder than at any time in at least three decades, tightening standards and refusing to finance businesses that don't retain them for other services.
Citigroup Inc., J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. and others loaned companies $1.02 trillion during the first quarter, down 7.4 percent from the first three months of 2001, according to U.S. Federal Reserve figures. The decrease followed a 6 percent year-over-year drop in loans to U.S. companies in last year's fourth quarter.
**Cont'd @ Link....
Rockgrabber
(04/30/02; 22:47:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 74657)
Operative (post # 746540
I believe Saudi Arabia has seen this all coming for some time. With all the physical gold they have, why not make what they have been saving what its worth and then some? Rip up the paper markets. Their wealth that they have collected for their gold will be made known. Then we will see just how costly this oil we have been using really is. I think their dependency on our dollar has been great, but is being made less everyday. With the Euro as an alternitive, and good support from its creator, might as well cash in their paper dollars for paper Euros. Allow China cheap oil, to devolop a dependency now. Do it by cutting oil production to the west. That will only do good things for Saudi Arabia. They dont have to have their dollars, matter of fact they are better off by cutting dollar ties and sending inflation soaring out west. Their Gold that they have been collecting will be valued so high that they will be very mighty and proud. Just thoughts.
Rocketman
(04/30/02; 22:26:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 74656)
Bullrider & your gold essay
Thank you, Bullrider, for your interesting essay! I appreciate your insights though I'm not sure I'll be able to part with my gold when if as you say many more pieces of paper called dollars will one day be required for each piece of gold.
Gold is much more to me than pretty yellow pieces of metal to look at. It represents what is just true and right while paper currencies are critical tools governments use to disposess and control their own people. Paper currencies are part of the greed/theft game whereby the sheeple think they will gain more than they loose.
It is with government backed paper currencies (the lure of easy money) that the enslaving ring is deftly hooked into our noses, and the masses are led about, allowing our lifes to be slowly traded for money which in turn is devalued.
Slavery used to be more honest. A person was actually physically taken. Now thinking we are free, we voluntarily trade our lives for pieces of paper (money) from which the value is slowly squeezed out. In essence we become voluntary slaves. Or perhaps some of you like paying taxes and having your hard earned savings devalued.
Gold is more than a pretty yellow trinket. It is the store of wealth of all freemen and I won't volunarily trade mine for paper.
YGM
(04/30/02; 21:18:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 74655)
@ Pizz.....& Black Blade.....
Thanks....
Pizz...
Your explanation tho basic (simplified for the likes of myself :>)) was very understandable....AND 3 for 3 seems very possible seeing all three have direct correlation to each other....Dominoes anyone! Thanks again.
BB...You've made me want to explore further your Nordic Gods & legends. Also 1/2 of my descent. Does that account for my preoccupation with Gold, Grog, Women, Adventure and
the High Seas for most of my life?? Maybe there's a little Viking ancestry in us all!.......YGM.
Operative
(04/30/02; 21:10:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 74654)
Refreasher on Saudi Oil
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=27445
Snip:
"The Saudi government needs
cash, and needs it fast.
Economic growth has not
kept up with population
growth over the last decade.
The result is plummeting per
capita income, around $7,000
today compared to $25,000 in
the mid-1970s.
Unemployment has grown
along with social discontent.
Oil revenues supply more
than 75 percent of the Saudi
budget – which is focused on
placating the public with jobs
and services – and the
government issues debt to
cover any shortfalls. Over 55
percent, or $114 million, of
the 2000 budget was spent on
salaries for government
employees. Millions more are
spent on healthcare,
infrastructure and free
education. The Saudi
government must also spend
tens of millions to buy
support from the scheming
uncles and power-hungry
cousins within the fractious
royal family. "
Nomad
(04/30/02; 20:47:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 74653)
Communism
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/05/01/international/asia/01CHIN.html
For those interested, this is as accurate as anything I have read about the state of Communism on China. Especially the part about people looking at you weird ...
(you'll need to register I think)
Nomad
Cavan Man
(04/30/02; 20:44:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 74652)
Canuck
That quote is one year old. Don't take your eye off the ball.
Black Blade
(04/30/02; 20:41:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 74650)
Re: R Powell – My Gods
Odin
Odin - Leader of the Aesir. Odin had a myriad of names including Allfather, Ygg, Bolverk [evil doer], and Grimnir. He also had many functions including being a god of war, poetry, wisdom, and death. His halls were called Gladsheim Valaskjalf and Valhalla. Odin's high seat, Hlidskialf, was in Valaskjalf. It was from this throne that he could see over all the world. Valhalla is where he gathered his portion of the slain warriors, Einheriar, whom the valkyries had chosen.
The valkyries would serve mead which forever flowed from the udder of Odin's goat, Heidrun. They also served the warriors meat that came from the boar Saehrimnir, which the cook Andhrimnir would prepare for eating by boiling it in the cauldron Eldhrimnir. The boar magically came back to life before the next meal. After eating, the warriors would go outside the hall and fight each other to the death. They were, of course, brought back to life before the next feast. All of this fighting was practice for when Odin would lead the Einheriar in the final battle, Ragnarok.
Odin had a spear named Grungir which never missed its mark and a bow which unleashed ten arrows with every pull. He also owned a magic ring called Draupnir which created nine of itself every night. It was this ring that Odin laid on his son Balder's funeral pyre and which Balder returned to Odin from the underworld. Another one of Odin's prized possesions was his wonderful steed named Sleipnir which had eight legs.
The horse was the offspring of Loki, who in mare form seduced a giant's horse named Svadilfari. Sleipnir could travel to the underworld and through the air. Odin also had two wolves, Geri and Freki, and two ravens, Hugin [thought] and Munin [memory]. He sent his ravens out every day to gather knowledge for him.
Odin sacrificed himself for knowledge by hanging on the world tree, Yggdrasil, which means Ygg's horse. Ygg is a name for Odin and horse is a metaphor for the gallows. He thereby learns the runes. Another sacrifice he made for wisdom was his eye. He gave it up in order to drink from the Well of Mimir which bestowed great knowledge. Because of this, he is typically depicted as having one eye. He is also depicted as wearing a cloak, being old, having a long grey beard, and wearing a wide brimmed hat down low over his face to conceal his one-eyed visage.
Odin was destined to die at Ragnarok; Fenris-Wolf swallowed him. Knowing his fate, he still chose to embrace it and do battle. Showing the true warrior ethic. He was the god of warriors and kings, not the common man. Many heroes genealogies start with Odin, including Sigurd. His name is not found in many place names and therefore it is believed that not many people worshipped him. He was thought to be a traitorous god, as shown in the sagas, who would strike down a warrior at his whim.
Loki
Loki - is a giant. He became a member of the Aesir when Odin made Loki his blood brother. He is the god of mischief, a trickster, and very cunning. After causing the death of Balder, he was bound by the gods until the Ragnarok, at which time, he will be freed.
Thor
Thor - the son of Odin and a member of the Aesir, he was the god of thunder and the main enemy of the giants. He would smash their heads with his mighty hammer Mjollnir. To wield this awesome weapon he needed iron gloves and a belt of strength. Mjollnir would return to Thor's hand after being thrown and was symbolic of lightning. Thor would ride around middle-earth in his wagon drawn by two goats, His abode was Thruthheim [Land of Strength] and his hall, Bilskinir. His wife was Sif.
He was foremost of the gods to the common man, who would call on him to ensure fertility, and widely worshiped. Hammer shaped amulets, a symbol of Thor because it was his weapon, were worn about the neck well into the christianization of Scandinavia. There are molds from that time which contain both cross and hammer shapes, side by side. His name occurs in numerous place names, and it was his statue which was central in the great temple at Uppsala. Thursday is named for him and he was associated by the Romans with Jupiter. Donar was an early version of Thor among the early Germans. The anglo-saxons worshiped a thunder god named Thunor.
My favorite: Aegir
Aegir - The meaning of his name is associated with water. He was also called Hler and Gymir [the Blinder] (the name of Gerd's father -- it is not known if they are one and the same). Aegir was the god of the seashore or ocean, and called the ruler of the sea by Snorri. He was a personification of the ocean, be it good or evil. Aegir was one of the Vanir and a giant.
Aegir brewed ale for the gods after Thor brought him a big enough kettle. Every winter the gods would drink beer at Aegir's home. He was, therefore, famed for his hospitality. Instead of having a fire, gold was put onto the floor of the hall to provide light. Gold is therefore called Aegir's fire. The cups in Aegir's hall were always full, magically refilling themselves. Aegir had two servants in his hall, Fimafeng [Handy] and Eldir [Fire-Kindler]. According to Lee Hollander, Aegir's function as the gods' ale brewer was suggested by the ocean's foam.
And so these are some of my Gods. I can't speak to Crom (although I think that Arnold Schwartzenegger may have mentioned him). Now I shall grab a horn of ale. Cheers!
- Black Blade
Bullrider
(04/30/02; 20:40:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 74649)
Gold Essay
Here's my latest essay which was first published earlier today at another website. Hope you find it both entertaining and informative...
Riding the Golden Bull
(and knowing when to get the hell off!)
"Do you think IÕve missed most of the run-up?" a young friend asked me the other day, referring to goldÕs recent price increases.
From a big-picture perspective, the question is laughable, of course. But for those investors too young to remember the late Ō70s and early Ō80s, the question seems meaningful. After all, for them gold is a merely another metal used in crafting jewelry for body piercing. For the younger generations, goldÕs use as an investment is about as meaningful as a Jennifer Lopez film: nice to look at, perhaps, but without any lasting value.
The question got me thinking, though, about what we gold and silver bugs might expect when the next true gold bull market begins. How high is high? For that matter, how do we know for certain when the bullÕs run has actually begun? And, finally, what signs do we look for to clue us in on when the bull has ultimately run its course?
IÕll attempt to bring some light to these questions and some related issues. IÕll even give you a few "magic numbers" to look for when things really get moving. Because itÕs important to know ahead of time approximately when you plan to exit a position. Formulating a game plan after the opening kickoff just doesnÕt make much sense. ItÕs best to know right up front when youÕll get out.
But before I tell you about the magic numbers, let me share with you some important background information. I like to keep things really simple, so IÕll stick to the gold marketÕs performance over the past 25 years only. Sure, we could go back 50 or even 100 years. For that matter, we could go back to the days of ancient Egypt. But for the purposes of this article, letÕs just focus on what we might call "modern" times, since our society doesnÕt really bear much resemblance to that of the Pharaohs or, as far as that goes, even to the days of Lincoln or Hoover.
Of Tulips and Technology
To begin with, how do we know when a gold bull market has actually started? In answering that question, itÕs important to make a crucial point and one which all precious metals investors should understand clearly: bull markets always begin for a reason (or, more likely, for several reasons). In other words, a commodity doesnÕt increase drastically in price just because it appears to be undervalued. Or because it holds sentimental value (think of the poor fellow who purchased gold at $400 per ounce in the late Ō80s or early Ō90s, only to watch it languish for the next decade or more!). And it certainly doesnÕt rise just because it appears inexpensive relative to its chart history.
No, my friends, gold will never rise merely because a group of diehard investors wants it to rise. It will rise in value, as all other commodities from T-Bills to tulips, from pork bellies to belly dancers, from bonds to Buicks, for one reason and one reason alone: perceived demand begins to exceed perceived supply. Until that happens, expect the price of gold to remain relatively stable and range-bound.
Why do I use the word "perceived"? Because it is the average investorÕs perception that motivates him to invest (or dis-invest). When the Dutch tulip mania was unfolding, there was never an actual shortage of tulips -- only a perceived shortage. The average investor, not understanding the situation, concluded that there just werenÕt enough doggoned tulips in the world, and he began paying outrageous sums of money for them. As with all manias, reality ultimately asserted itself and proved, after all, that tulips were in quite plentiful supply relative to actual demand, and the price came plummeting back to levels which few investors imagined they would ever again witness only weeks prior to the inevitable crash. (The old saying is that trees donÕt grow to the sky. Evidently, this is equally true for tulips.)
We need look back no farther than 1999 and early 2000 to see a modern example of a classic mania: the now-infamous NASDAQ "bubble." Here was a situation where the perceived need far exceeded the perceived supply. To use just one example, investors (be honest now: were you one of them!?) were crawling over each other to buy up all the telecom and fiber optic companies they could identify, because everyone "knew" that there just wasnÕt enough fiber in the ground. We all know now, of course, that the actual supply/demand fundamentals were a far different story. But we didnÕt realize how overbought this and other tech sectors had become (unless we were members of LeMetropoleCafe!) until hundreds of billions of investor dollars had been squandered forever on various telecom, biotech and other technology-related "investments."
So what do the prices of tulips and tech stocks have to do with the present-day gold situation? Just this: as the GATA camp has been shouting from the treetops for years now, the artificial price manipulations of the gold and silver markets have given investors the perception that gold and silver supplies far exceed gold and silver demand Š the exact reverse of the situation which develops in a mania. The reality is, both gold and silver usage are increasing annually while supplies are actually declining! "Holy Conspiracy, Batman! The Joker is secretly confiscating their wealth while the citizens of Gotham dance in the streets!" And before you know it, investors around the world, believing they were investing in a legitimate free market, were WHAMMed, BAMMed and KA-POWed out of their hard-earned dollars, rubles, pesos, francs and rupees.
I provide this little historical vignette only to emphasize that leverage works both ways. When demand is artificially exaggerated to the upside, the result is an unnatural swing upward in price. When that demand is artificially exaggerated to the downside, as in the present gold/silver situation, the resulting price is also exaggerated downward. But just as Nature abhors a vacuum, She also isnÕt very fond of artificial imbalances. Thus, we can be all but certain that when the Gold Cartel finally loses control of its manipulation scheme, the subsequent explosion upward will likely be both drastic and violent. This never could have happened in a free market, but now that the cards have been played, thereÕs no pulling them off the table. And those of us who know about the Big Scam may as well profit from it.
Modern HistoryÕs Most Shining Example
Which leads me back to my original point: what are the characteristics of an emerging Š and a dying Š bull market in gold, and how do we make a buck or two from the historical lessons?
First, if we look back at the most famous gold bull in modern history from August 1979 to September 1980, we find that its foundation was being laid far earlier, beginning about mid-1977. To re-emphasize, bull markets happen for specific reasons, and the reasons back then were legion: economic imbalances, high unemployment, high interest rates, large trade deficits, etc. Other than the high interest rates, do any of these things ring a bell today?
We certainly donÕt have to look far these days for such trigger points. Even an Enron CEO can see that sky-high consumer and corporate debt, low savings rates, high unemployment, record trade deficits, record levels of circulating paper currency (many of them experiencing frightening rates of decline in value!), and growing worldwide economic and nationalistic tensions can hardly lead to stability -- either politically or monetarily. Add to this the unnatural suppression of gold and silver prices for several years running, and you can readily see that we have a textbook recipe for both economic disaster and unprecedented profits.
Assuming, then, that the great gold bull market of Ō79-Õ80 actually began quietly igniting in mid-Õ77, with baseline gold prices much lower than the baseline prices of today, it doesnÕt seem unreasonable to conclude that the next great bull market will last at least as long as that particular 3-year run. Moreover, assuming that the triple-bottom of early last year around the $255 mark was, indeed, the beginning of this bull run, I believe we can reasonably conclude this trend will last well into 2004 (perhaps longer) and that we ainÕt seen nothinÕ yet!
Additionally, we can look back on our 25-year gold chart and see that, after the big selloff from the 1980 conclusion of "the big one," another bull market in gold began in mid-1982. While this one lasted only about seven or eight months, again the price increase was substantial: nearly 70% from trough to peak (just under $300 to just over $500). Can you imagine what such a move these days would do to your current precious metals portfolio!? Many gold and silver equities have risen four- to six-fold on a gold price increase of just fifty bucks!
So, do I think youÕve missed most of the run-up? Ha! ThatÕs a good one! Did Ken Lay maximize shareholder value?!!! Are all priests celibate? Do Wall Street analysts have your best interests at heart? Will Colin Powell create peace in the mid-east? Not only have you not missed most of the run-up, the run-up hasnÕt truly begun!
The Amazing Leverage of Equities
LetÕs proceed on to the subsequent gold bull market after the big run-up in Õ82. After the price of gold again fell back to the $300 level in 1985 (are you beginning to notice that the $300 mark is goldÕs modern-day floor price and not its ceiling!?) we see, once again, yet another 3-year bull market commence, beginning in March of 1985 and continuing until the end of 1987. In this impressive run, gold climbed fairly steadily and persistently until, once again, it was back to the $500 level. Another 70% climb!
Not to belabor the point, but consider how magnificently the precious metals stocks have performed in the last 12 months with gold merely rising to the pathetic $300 mark and lowly silver still below a measly five bucks! These stocks are spurting 10% a day in some cases on price moves in the metals of only 1--2%. Can you imagine what will happen when you wake up one morning and gold is up $20, $30 or even $50 an ounce! Can you imagine what the prices of these stocks will be if gold were to climb to just $500/ounce!!!???
Given the prolonged and unnatural manipulation of the gold and silver markets, it isnÕt even beyond consideration that the two metals could make historic highs before the results of the artificial contortions so long imposed can finally be wrung out of the markets. While resisting the cerebrally dancing sugarplums, itÕs nevertheless mouthwatering to consider the wealth-building possibilities such an historic run would create. Who knows Š we might even be able to pay off our credit cards!
Dangerous Ideas that can Wipe You Out
After 1987Õs stock market washout in October and the 20-year bull market in equities resumed, modern-day investors began "learning" a very dangerous concept Š the myth of "buy-and-hold." In each instance, until the big POP! in the NAZ a couple of years ago, investors had, indeed, been rewarded for this long-touted strategy of Wall Street. Never mind that the Wall Street insiders have never subscribed to the buy-and-hold theory themselves. Why should they? For them, "pump-and-dump" has worked infinitely better Š just ask folks like Abby Joseph Cohen and Henry Blodgett!
But the late, great bull market in equities has also persuaded most investors to adopt two other equally perilous concepts: 1) that paper currencies are actual money and 2) that gold is no longer of any value monetarily. I find it astounding that almost every generation is forced to learn anew the single outstanding lesson of economic history: nearly everything a government touches turns to sh*% -- ultimately including every paper currency in the history of this planet! YouÕd think after a few thousand years of clear historical evidence of this proposition that we humans would be a little more wary of trusting our future prosperity to politicians (or central bankers) of any brand!
It isnÕt that I believe every politician or central banker is out to screw us. That wouldnÕt be a fair assessment. But as the saying goes, itÕs always the 95% of politicians that give the other 5% a bad name! ItÕs just that, when it comes to spending other peopleÕs money, very few human beings are prone to wise and honorable action. ItÕs as if they suddenly believe theyÕre playing a big game of Monopoly and the money is fake (in a way, I guess it is). Soon, theyÕre implementing and experimenting with plans and schemes so incredibly lunkheaded that only a highly educated person -- or a bureaucrat -- could ever have thought them to be good ideas in the first place. It reminds me of the old joke about the famous last words of a redneck ("Hey, yÕall, watch this!"). I swear, sometimes I wonder, as the latest political huckster stands behind the podium ranting, if these folks really believe this stuff theyÕre spouting, or if theyÕre merely trying to impress their dates.
Every time I witness a political rally with hundreds or even thousands cheering on the candidate du jour, it makes me want to grab each and every one of them by their shirts and demand to know, "What has any politician ever done to make your life better!? When did any politician ever spend your tax money in a way he would spend his own!? When has any politician in recent history ever actually reduced overall government spending, reduced the overall size of the government or actually implemented a government Ōof the people, by the people and for the peopleÕ!? Did the politician you cheered for in the last election do so!?" Perhaps things will change when we cease electing so many elitists and multi-millionaires to high office.
Is This "The Big One"? Š Magic Numbers to Look For
But I digress. As most of you reading this article are no doubt aware, paper currency is not real money, and gold has not lost its monetary value. Given that several currencies around the globe are losing large percentages of their value even now, it certainly seems to make sense to keep some of your wealth in precious metals and related equities.
So meandering back to my original questions, how do we know when a genuine, bona fide gold bull market has begun? ItÕs easy to answer, "Well, silly, the price begins to rise!" But a few months of gradually rising prices does not necessarily comprise the makings of a powerful bull market! Then what else do we look for? Well, for one thing we look for the "magic numbers" I promised you earlier.
Once again, letÕs take a look at our most recent modern-day examples. One of the characteristics we find when examining gold bulls over the past 25 years is that the first -- and most violent -- wave of the great Ō79-Ō80 bull market (which, youÕll recall, actually began forming in mid-Õ77) contained at least four subsequent monthly highs within a six-month period. These new highs need not occur in four consecutive months; they just need to occur within a six-month timeframe. In other words, after the bottom of the cycle in June of Õ77, there was a new high established in July, another in September, a third in October and a fourth in November. Again, I want to emphasize that this pattern applies only to the first and earliest stage of a newly forming major gold bull market (such as the one I believe we are entering right now).
Have we established four subsequent new highs within a six-month period since the triple-bottom lows last year? LetÕs take a look. Since the third occurrence of those lows in April last year (around $255), a new high was established in May. A second new, subsequent high was not established until September. So even if a new high had occurred in October (which it didnÕt), it wouldnÕt have mattered, since it would have been only the third new high in the series and October was the six-month deadline after the first new high in May.
But what about this year? After the double-bottom lows in November and December a new monthly high was established in January (high #1); another new monthly high was established in February (high #2). No new high was established in March. Then, this month (written in late April), a third new high has been established (just last week). Now, we need only surpass it one time between May 1 and June 30 to have our fourth monthly high within six months. Remember that the first high in this series was presented to us in January, thus making June 30 the six-month deadline. Should a fourth new high occur on or before June 30, itÕs a strong indication we are, indeed, in the early stages of a powerful new bull market in gold. This would apply to silver as well, since it always follows gold in the major moves.
A Rare Occurrence Happening Before Our Eyes
Just to put this rare four-highs-in-six-months phenomenon in perspective, the last time the gold market established four or more subsequent new monthly highs within six months was nearly a decade ago in 1993! Even during the buying frenzy ensuing after the announcement of the Washington Agreement, gold put in only two subsequent monthly highs before the Cartel "managed" the price back down to below even pre-Agreement levels. So, the bottom line is this: we now have two full months to establish a fourth new subsequent high above AprilÕs final high. DonÕt forget, though, that after this initial stage of the early gold bull market, this indicator becomes worthless.
How High Can Gold Fly?
Once a gold bull market gets going in earnest, it makes sense to ask the next logical question: how high is "high"? Here, we can make use of a few more additional "magic" numbers. The first is $400. Since 1989, which was the bottom of the downleg of the last great gold bull market begun in 1987, gold has met consistent resistance at, or just above, $400 per ounce. This was the case in Õ89, Õ90, Õ93, Õ94, Õ95 and Õ96. Since we now know that the Gold CartelÕs ongoing indiscretions have created serious imbalances in the gold market and that a higher-than-normal price increase is likely, weÕll assume that gold can, indeed, blow past the $400 level. If it does, the next serious resistance point is $500, as shown in Õ82, Õ83, and finally in Õ87 Š the last time gold ever sold for $500. Since then, it hasnÕt even been in the same zip code, much less in the neighborhood.
But what if there really is justice in the world and the Gold Cartel has its head handed to it on a platter? What if the price of gold really soars? Well, then, we have two more "magic" numbers to watch for. The first is $730, which represents the peak price of gold after the 50% retracement of the original tsunami wave increase, which took gold to around $875 per ounce. Should the $730 level be taken out, I suppose you could theoretically view the all-time high of $875 as "resistance," but to do so would be exactly that: mere theory. Because in todayÕs anything-goes, derivatives-laden, cheap-money environment, were gold to explode upward of $730 we would be navigating uncharted waters and anything would be possible.
Planning Your Exit Š the Most Important Number of All
Every chess match has an endgame, of course, and the coming gold party will be no exception. Whether the gold scenario plays itself out in two years or twenty, no one can say for sure. If history is to be trusted, the fireworks display we expect will likely be drawn out over 4 to 6 years. But history rarely repeats itself. Rather, like a politician trying to rework someone elseÕs old material, it tends to paraphrase. No doubt this time around the market will throw in a few surprises. In any case, weÕll have to "know when to fold Ōem," as any good "gambler" must. Once again, thankfully, we have a "magic" number to help us determine when to scoop up our chips and leave the casino. It may be the most important "magic" number of the bunch: That number is 25%.
Let me explain. When "the Big One" hit in 1979 and took gold from about $215 to more than $850 in 12 months, there were three months (September and December Õ79 and January Ō80) when gold moved up about 25% or more in one month! These three big moves all occurred within a 5-month period. (Are you beginning to see now why Bill Murphy has so often cautioned traders in the gold market to be careful? ItÕs easy to get caught without a position only to watch the market skyrocket almost overnight, leaving you standing knee-deep in swamp water!).
Later, after the initial 50% retracement of the first huge run-up, gold resumed its ascent in mid-1982. Once again, this time for each of three consecutive months, gold climbed about 25% or more in only four weeksÕ time! That, my friends, is how you know youÕre in a gen-yu-whine bull market!
DonÕt Get Caught at the Top
And that, too, is how weÕll know when to get out. Because just as a charging bull knows no bounds, neither does a dying one take any prisoners. Once again referring to the 25-year gold chart, we see that once gold made its initial stunning ascent to the $875 level, it promptly began declining at equally breathtaking rates. Even bull markets in gold have their share of greater fools, and once all the fools had bought at $800 and above expecting gold to proceed on to $1,000, they were promptly slaughtered in the ensuing decline! (Anyone buying in right now wonÕt lose money in such a scenario, of course; but you could certainly risk forfeiting the bulk of your profits.)
Notice that gold opened in January 1980 at roughly $565, climbed in stellar fashion to the peak at $875 (a stunning 55% increase in less than one month!) and then immediately began plummeting. It closed the month at $680 (a 22% decline in just a few days!), and less than eight weeks later was back down to $450 (an additional 34% decline). For those who bought at the top, nearly half their wealth had disappeared (or perhaps more than half if they were leveraged) Š all in fewer than 90 days!
The point is, the first time you see a 25% (or greater) decline after a serious bull run has unfolded, begin protecting your positions. For those bolder investors who are willing to take the chance, it is possible to wait out a decline and hope to get out on the 50% retracement back up. But while they did indeed take place in the bull markets weÕre studying, such retracements are only theoretical, and thereÕs no guarantee theyÕll happen. I suspect there are plenty of Lucent, Global Crossing, Enron, and millions of other high-tech investors waiting for 50% retracements that never happened Š and never will!
To put the 25% number in perspective, were gold to decline 25% from
Operative
(04/30/02; 20:32:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 74648)
El Nino may factor in
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/magazine/stories/mag24.htm
Attn Black Blade, El Nino may be adding to the stress factor in the coming months. (Response to your earlier post,
"Black Blade: Puplava nails it. It will get worse (there's absolutely no doubt about it). Actually
I think that the real sleeper is natural gas where the US has not taken the initiative to prevent
a replay of the California energy crisis. All it will take is a warmer than usual summer and
continued lack of production. Then – "lights out"."
Leigh
(04/30/02; 20:22:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 74647)
Canuck
That sounds like Bob Chapman. He's always talking about his intelligence sources.
silvester
(04/30/02; 20:15:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 74646)
@Canuck
Was'nt it last year about this time that we heard this? But it seems they had until the end of June and the message was delivered by him at one of his regular scheduled meetings. It could have been the year before.
What is the source this time?
Black Blade
(04/30/02; 20:13:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 74645)
Crude under $27 as oil supply rises Gold futures close off less than 1% on Nymex
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B2F752866%2D5970%2D406F%2D87B5%2D20AC5D156C36%7D
Snippit:
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Selling pressure continued to weigh on crude futures Tuesday after the American Petroleum Institute reported a sizable build in petroleum stocks in the latest week, well above the market's expectations.
Crude slumped below $27 in overnight trading after the API reported a "huge surprise" in inventories in the latest week. The API reported a 7.6 million-barrel build in supplies vs. the expectation of a draw of 5 million barrels to a build of 1 million barrels. It was the second week in a row for the API to report a large rise in crude inventories. "This turned out to be very negative for crude," said Phil Flynn, Alaron.com's senior market analyst. "Where is all this oil coming from?"
Gasoline supplies, the API reported, fell 1.6 million barrels in the latest week. Expectations ranged from a draw of 3 million to a build of 2 million. "This is at a time when you'd like to see them build," Flynn said. "Last year, we were at 198 million barrels and now we're at 210 million barrels. That's just a 12-million barrel lead over a year ago -- one day's consumption." Refinery output rose to 95.8 percent from 92.9 percent a week ago.
In precious metals, gold futures ended lower on what market players attributed to profit taking. The June gold contract came off session lows to close at $309.20 an ounce on Nymex, down $2.30.
South Africa-based AngloGold Ltd. (AU), in reporting quarterly results earlier Tuesday, offered a relatively upbeat outlook on the pricing environment for gold, noting "a number of favorable circumstances" that have supported prices.
These include Middle East tensions, the weakening of the U.S. dollar against the euro, the South African rand and the Australian dollar, and the Japanese government's recent withdrawal of savings deposit guarantees, AngloGold said.
Black Blade: On the Oil front – OPEC producers and Russian producers have been cheating on quotas. It was inevitable and all production cut agreements have broken down in the past. Still, oil inventories are only up a mere 12 billion bbl and with refineries running at capacity – remember we were at this stage during last years energy crisis and "driving season" has not even begun yet. On the Gold front – the fundamentals are still very positive for Gold. The corporate earnings picture is extremely "grim" as earnings have failed to materialize. There are many positive earnings outlook "guidances" given by the corporate community, yet this is the same story that was given last quarter, the previous quarter, and the one before that. The strong dollar must be reined in or US manufacturers will suffer as a result and the "Bone Pile" will grow more. Foreign goods are cheaper and that will place a greater burden on US manufacturers. The US stock markets will continue to flounder. The result is less consumer confidence and a "flight to quality" – Gold.
Canuck
(04/30/02; 20:01:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 74644)
Third time in as many weeks
Where is this coming from?
Strong rumour again
(322) Apr 30, 14:11
"Our intelligence sources have informed us that Alan Greenspan has given the bullion banks until the end of May to clear up their hedging and outstanding
gold derivative positions."
Nomad
(04/30/02; 19:40:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 74643)
Oil & China
After reading the article regarding oil and China I thought some general comments my be in order :)
For those of you who don't know, I live in China. I've been here off and on for several years and been in most of the major cities. Several items that you might want to factor in :
1) Chinese cities are SMALL. Physically that is. I lived in Shanghai most of last year and I could easily ride my bicycle from the outskirts of the city to the center in about 20-25 minutes. This is a city of roughly 15 - 17 million people. The city I live in now has 5 million people (a small town by chinese stahdards :) and is about the same size the small TOWN I grew up in the midwest (pop : 15,000).
2) The vast majority of the 'rich' I know in China got that way through trade with America. This means that the Chinese economy is intimately linked with that of the USA. As a result you would be interested to know that information about the USA and it's people is in high demand here. It's one of the few places in the world Americans are stilled liked and appreciated :)
3) People who are rich enough to have cars generally do NOT use them for long distance travel. They are primarily status symbols. I took a trip a few weeks ago between two major cities with a decent highway between them and you could count the number of private cars on one hand. Most people take airplanes or use the excellent train system.
3) As a result of the above China will NEVER have a thriving auto industry, in spite of what any of the pundits say. IT IS NOT PHYSICALLY POSSIBLE to allow millions of city residents to own cars. There is no parking, there are not enough streets and already in some cities traffic jams are a big problem. And by extension, gasoline usage may rise but not to the extent all predict.
Remember this is the country that has a one child per family policy. Restricting the number of auotmobiles will be a forgone conclusion. This has already occurred in Shanghai where a fixed number of licenses are given out each month via auction. And recently, for the first time all licenses went at the minimum bid. i.e. no buyers.
China's transportation system and city layout is so good that only those 'highly' concerned with keeping up with the 'Joneses' (or Wong's in this case :) would bother getting a car. For less than $3 I can go anywhere in the city (usually it's about $1) by taxi and 12 cents by bus or trolley.
And one last thought. Because of the huge population and because of the central government planning of the last 60 or so years, the result is highly compact and EFFICIENT city layout. Thus, in the coming energy crunches (and I agree with BB, they ARE coming) China will fare well.
Unfortunately, their economic relationship is that of a symbiote (or parasite depending on your view) with the west and specifically with the US. Thus, the Chinese (and especially the Chinese workers) will suffer greatly as the USA economy slowly tanks and as a result of the WTO reforms.
Look for them to possibly take a page from Dubya's playbook and demonize outsiders to take the sheeple's minds of problems at home, especially in the time period around the full implementation of WTO (around 4 to 5 years from now).
just my 2 cents.
Nomad
R Powell
(04/30/02; 19:34:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 74642)
Blake Blade
If I recall right Odin is the father of Thor and Loki but is Odin also kin to Crom of Cimmeria?
Interesting too that none of these gods promised any kind of peace, happiness or everlasting life.
The longer I live on this earth, the stronger becomes my belief that my death will be a great blessing- mostly to myself. This is a blessing I hope to anticipate for a good deal longer.
Coveting (good religious term) gold and silver has never been restricted to any one race, religion, nationality or creed. In political terms, sort of unilaterally recognized by the believers of all the different gods and by those who believe in none.
Rich
Black Blade
(04/30/02; 19:23:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 74641)
Iran renews its call for oil embargo to support Palestinians
http://www.oilandgasinternational.com/departments/world_industry_news/apr02_embargo2.html
Snippit:
(4/30/2002 - OGI: Cairo) Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, the Iranian Minister of Petroleum, has once again called for an embargo of oil exports to Israel and its supporters, according to IRNA, the Iranian news agency.
Zanganeh was quoted as saying such an embargo would serve as a symbolic move and be influential in relieving the suffering of the Palestinian people. He asked that both "OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries support the call for sanctions in word and deed as a humanitarian gesture."
Although only Iraq has put such an embargo into effect, Iran has called several times for a concerted action by all Muslim countries that produce oil. Earlier in the month, both Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Iranian Supreme Leader, and Iranian President Mohammad Khatami voiced their support for suspending exports to all supporters of Israel for a symbolic period of one month.
Black Blade: Ho hum. Maybe, then again maybe not. I am watching a news-commentary show that states some members of the US administration has plans in place for an Iraqi invasion early next year. "Interesting Times"
Black Blade
(04/30/02; 19:17:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 74640)
Security fears shut down 8 ChevronTexaco Nigeria oilfields
http://www.oilandgasinternational.com/departments/world_industry_news/apr02_security.html
Snippit:
(4/30/2002 - OGI: Lagos) ChevronTexaco has closed eight of its producing oilfields in Nigeria's Imo State due to security fears following a failed negotiation with community leaders. According to reports in Nigerian newspapers, Chevron Nigeria, the ChevronTexaco operator in the country, was unable to reach a compromise with spokesmen for the local community and decided to shut down the fields to prevent damages or injuries in the event of unrest as a result of the impasse.
Black Blade: Less Oil coming to market.
Black Blade
(04/30/02; 18:55:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 74639)
Tuesday's Stock Market WrapUp
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:
One of the ironies of the economic world was amplified in today's Senate hearings in Washington on energy. The Senate was looking into gasoline price spikes and accusing the industry of conspiring to keep gas prices high by lowering supply. Today was a perfect example of how economic illiteracy permeates much of Washington. This is the same Senate that just over a week ago vetoed a bill that would expand oil and gas exploration in Alaska on the bogus idea it would harm the environment and the Caribou. Not once in the testimony headed up by Democratic Chairman Carl Levin did the hearings touch upon the myriad of government regulations and red tape that have led us to this crisis. Nor was it ever mentioned that during the first quarter of the year refinery margins and profits fell. If the industry was gouging consumers, it certainly wasn't reflected in the industry's bottom line. Profits fell during the first quarter across all sectors of the energy business. The drop in prices occurring over the last half of 2001 was caused by a dramatic drop in the number of rigs now operating and drilling for oil and natural gas.
Black Blade: Puplava nails it. It will get worse (there's absolutely no doubt about it). Actually I think that the real sleeper is natural gas where the US has not taken the initiative to prevent a replay of the California energy crisis. All it will take is a warmer than usual summer and continued lack of production. Then – "lights out".
Canuck
(04/30/02; 18:52:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 74638)
@ BB
Good job buddy, finally someone calls a spade a spade.
I have been reading theories on Bush being 'goated' into getting involved at the last minute. Now we wait the Arab retaliation?
There are as many radical, self-interested theories from one side of the fence as the other. Who is right and who is wrong? Well apparently decades of fussing have accomplished jack diddly.
The US has made the mistake of 'picking sides', well since a spade is a spade, the numerous theories of the 'cause' of 911 comes to mind. Maybe playing a little 'Switzerland' and watching from the sidelines instead of 'introvention' would be a novell approach.
Apparently, and this is highly speculative, Saudi is not pleased that Bush entered into the array late. Could it be now that a herd of 'oil producers' have a hard-on for the US?
Time will tell if the belated introvention has back-fired.
There might be some merit in that old expression, play big or stay at home.
Pizz
(04/30/02; 18:43:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 74637)
YGM
RE: Derivitives and Interest rates
Here's my understanding of how interest rate derivitives work in a simplified manner. The actual workings are much more complicated and formal.
Company A issues a 1M bond for 1 years @2%. Interest payments will be 20,000 per year.
Company B issues a 1M bond for 10 years @6%. Interest expense 60,000 per year.
Company A has lots of cash (or cash flow) and has the ability to borrow short term because of a high credit rating.
Company B is not as finacially strong and is limited to longer term financing. (To borrow short term you have to be able to prove you can pay the principal back in a short period of time).
Now the two companies do an interest rate swap (derivitive contract) that in effect says that for one year company A pays company B 40,000, the differecnce between the interest, with the understanding that company A will in the second year pay the difference between the, then, short term
rate on the new 1 year bond that replaces the current one.
(Company A may also gets a fee for the swap, since the less credit worthy company is the one trying to mitigate his higher interest expense - more earnings per share).
So the net effect is company A has the effect of 6% long term money, and company B has the effect of 2% short term money (plus a fee?).
Short term rates spike to 10%, and instead of receiving 40,000 from company A in the second year, Company B has to pay 40,000 to company A, the difference between the 6% long term bond and the new 10% 1 year bond.
Interest rate swaps put the risk back upon those least able to pay.
Now it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out why the companies do it. The less credit worthy company is trying to pump earnings using short term financing rates, and the credit worthy company is getting a better than market rate on their short term bond by way of the fee AND THE TRANSFER OF THE INTEREST RATE RISK INHERENT WITH SHORT TERM FINANCING. they can put their cash to work longer term and into less liquid investments - like capital expenditures.
If the FED cranks the rates too quickly, the weak company's stock crashes due to the earnings problem and/or they go bankrupt. All due to the pressure to keep EPS up. Even the credit worthy company may have a problem if they used the money for plant and equipment, the economy goes south, and they have to go back into the credit markets at higher rates to replace the short term bond that was swapped.
Now can the economy crash with higher interest rates? Only if foreigners bail out of our paper assets, we get another terrorist strike, or if the cabal can't hold gold prices in check. We could get three for three and the derivitives game will be over, IMHO.
Pizz
IGWA
(04/30/02; 18:36:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 74636)
Black Blade
O.K. But the real point is the conflict will be much wider than the ME. It won't be "them over there". It'll be everywhere. We live in interesting times.
Anyway, I don't mind a drop of Odin & Thor myself, when my real god, J. W. Black Label is unavailable.
igwa
Black Blade
(04/30/02; 18:30:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 74635)
The China Factor - Why Won't Crude Oil Prices Come Down?
http://www.oil-gasoline.com/default.asp?id=645
Why Won't Crude Oil Prices Come Down?
Snippit:
For the past few months, crude oil prices have hovered above OPEC goals despite increases in the availability of additional production. Initial research into the problem suggests a shortage of transportation capacity. It appears that although all refineries are able to obtain as much crude oil as they need to operate, they are not able to import additional crude oil without bidding prices up. It's not good business to pay a higher price for something you intend to store in the future unless you are sure prices will increase. In recent months, refiners seem to be betting on crude oil prices going down. But spot prices continue at high levels. A slightly deeper look into what's happening suggests prices may not go down for two or three years. In fact, they could peak well above current prices unless the international refining community makes some very important operational changes.
The Problem is China's Rapidly Emerging Economy
China's emerging economy is in the process of changing the entire oil supply-demand picture. Until now, the US was the country that provided the marginal demand in the crude oil market. But that was when China produced enough oil to satisfy it's relatively meager demand. Recently, things have changed in China.
Black Blade: I have hit on this before. And it gets even better – China has been in negotiations to "import" oil from Iran because they are unable to meet growing demand. As the Chinese economy grows and its 1.2 billion people improve economically and they demand their "fair share" of the worlds energy, we will see energy supply become tighter. Also, do not forget the large population of India (fast approaching 1 billion). They too will make the same demands on energy. The POO is not likely to decline to the levels of 1998 ever again. A very good article that outlines that and other problems with the economic boom in China.
Black Blade
(04/30/02; 18:13:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 74634)
Gold and Petroleum Falling
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp
It must be that oil inventories (as per API) are surging as the POO and NG are dropping in after hours. It appears that the POG is also falling in tandem with petroleum prices.
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(04/30/02; 18:08:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 74633)
Re: IGWA – Middle Eastern Affairs
I think that you may have missed my point. I don't really care who wins or loses in the region. I doubt that the majority of Americans do. There are certain realities that people tend to miss because they are too focused on emotion (or religion). As a non-believer (I guess that makes me a Godless infidel – OK, so be it, at least my Gods are Scandinavian – Odin and Thor), I am in a position to use common sense and logic as I have no "emotional" ties to either side. The reason that Muslim and Israeli radicals attack the US is because unlike other nations, we (the US Government) interject ourselves into their affairs and support the enemy of one side over the other. We have more to lose by playing these games. The best thing to do is leave them alone to destroy each other until they either come to an agreement to live together in peace or simply exterminate one side or the other.
Either way who really cares who wins? The only concern for the US is a steady supply of oil. The victors will sell the ME oil for a price as greed exceeds all variables. The western nations depend on oil for our very economic survival and to jeopardize that supply (in the face of denial and a lack of commitment for energy independence) for a few votes from a certain constituency and the "soft money" that accompanies it is just foolishness. In fact all sides (both Arab and Israeli) despise the US. One side call us "goyem", the other side calls us "infidels", and both refer to us a "cockroaches". If anything all out warfare would be beneficial for the POG and hopefully settle the issue once and for all.
- Black Blade
YGM
(04/30/02; 17:43:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 74632)
IS THIS NEWS?........"GOLD TRUST RECIEPTS"
Or have I been asleep at the wheel again?
Excerpt from Dow Theory Letter, Apr. 30.......
Russell
The gold industry has been holding discussions with various stock exchanges including the NYSE about issuing "gold trust receipts." These could be bought and sold like stocks. Each gold trust receipt would be backed by part of an ounce of actual physical gold. Thus, they wouldn't be leveraged with depositors' assets the way banks are. When you buy one of these receipts it would show that you actually owned an measure of gold, and this gold would be taken off the market and held in a bank vault. Result -- an inexpensive liquid gold investment that would create some physical demand for the metal without the investor worrying about where to keep his gold.
Russell comment -- a good idea, and I think it's going to happen. The negative -- a lot of skeptics want to keep their gold off the record and in their own hands. Gold is anonymous if held by you. As soon as you buy a receipt, the government can know who has the gold and how much they have.
**Comment**....Sure they'd be honored just like the Gov Gold Certs after the "Great Confiscation" (THEFT) of the 30's....Ahh well some fish will bite a hook with no bait even.... and this gives you 'Part' of an ounce, HA >>>>>
IGWA
(04/30/02; 17:33:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 74631)
Black Blade: Mess 74585 "Jews & Muslims? Who cares?
After 9/11, Black Blade, I would have thought that you (and the USA) cared. You can no longer let them 'fight it out' (and I appreciate you were being somewhat flippant..I hope..) They (Muslims) won't let you stand on the side lines.
This post is very much about gold so bear with me.
Look around the world's trouble spots and what do you find? Muslims killing non Muslims, mostly.
The Koran states: "when you meet unbelievers, smite their necks, then, when you have made wide slaughter among them, tie fast the bonds" (Sura 47:4-7)
and
"slay the idolterers, wherever you find them, and take them captive and beseige them and lie in wait for them in every ambush". (9:5,6)
Clear enough? Better be, 'cos that's what's starting to happen as Islamic fundamentalism takes hold throughtout the world.
In Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim country, (and just up the road from where I live) the mass murder of Christians by Muslims is an almost daily occurance. Just because they are Christian. (and yes, the Christians do reciprocate -just like the Jewish state does when its citizens are murdered).
In Europe - France particularly - Arab/Muslim "immigrants" are the main cause of serious crime.
Here in Australia gangs of - listen to this - SECOND GENERATION Arab/Muslims gang-rape Australian girls BECAUSE THEY ARE AUSTRALIAN..
They are involved in serious crime - murder, rape, robbery, drugs - out of all proportion to their numbers. A day doesn't go by without a report of serious crime committed by "men of Middle Appearance".
Well excuse me, sounds like they're a bit different. Different culture, different values. Certainly otally different to mine, and totally unacceptable to me.
And in case anyone acuses me of a little xenophobia, my wife is a wonderful Asian girl; smart too, with a Masters Degree. I have great respect for different values & cultures. But I judge them by their actions, and Muslim culture, by it's actions is c***. IMHO, of course. Read what Jinx 44 eloquently said in his post of 74578. He tells it 'like it is',the truth, far better than I can.
So back to the point. I believe we're at the start of what may turn out to be a 50 or 100 or 200 year long conflict - Muslims v. the rest.
And I understand, Balck Blade, that there are around 3 million Muslims in the USA. Most - the vast majority I'm sure, are good people and want to live their lives in peace and do the best they can. Just like the rest of us. But if only a tiny fraction are radicalised, then my friend, you have BIG problems. As will have the rest of the world. (In France, there are great concerns about North African black migrants who integrated into French society, and are now DIS-integrating from society as they take up radical Islam. Ring any bells over there in the good 'ol US of A??)
9/11 expressed Muslim hatred against the USA as the representation & personification of Western/Democratic/Christian-Judeo valaues. You 'aint seen nothin' yet....
As this conflict grows and expands it'll have a dramatic effect on the POG. Along with all the other factors. You can start cheering now, but when gold hits $5,000 oz, the world will hardly bear living in. That's when the World Council will step in and 'save us from ourselves' and ban gold. Happy days, folks, enjoy while you can....
igwa
YGM
(04/30/02; 17:25:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 74630)
Pizz.....Anyone?
Interest Rates
The same with derivitives, if there's no short end to hedge the long, you better hope for stability......
Question: Stability?
*So then a sharp rise in Fed Interest Rates could become a death toll possibly sending another fund etc to the bone pile?.....YGM.
YGM
(04/30/02; 17:13:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 74629)
Pizz.....Thanks......
....for the run down...I should have caught our friend
sharp "Blade's" link but missed it somehow...Like you say the derivative world is very murky. I'm just suprised more anti-cheerleading analysts don't spend more time focusing on this area. I guess those in the know "Already Know" and have invested and re-acted accordingly. If the grip of the so called Cabal can control the major media w/ respect to Gold they could do as much or more when it comes to info that would/could cause no small amount of panic in the Banking world. I'm still trying to get a handle on Bank exposure to Derivatives at present. I would not be at all surprised to see the same 500/700 times capital asset base positions by the top 8 US Banks as I had found 3 yrs ago. The site where I found this info (Graph) that I posted on the GATA forum in the early days does not exist today.....
Now that's not a surprise?? When one considers there are some experts predicting that if the truth were known, the Exposure (Deriv) could be +/- 140 Trillion dollars, then that makes the PPT indispensible and a mighty force w/ every power short of God backing them up.....Interesting and fraudulent times we live in.....Well this sheeple keeps very little in the system. My Bank is the "Creek Bank"....
...among other places...YGM.
Rock
(04/30/02; 15:51:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 74628)
CNBC Boots another one!
Black Blade
I as Pizz liked Marci Rossell a bit because she seemed to me to go against as you say the cheer leading mantality. Oh well another one off to the bone pile.
Sir Rock
Pizz
(04/30/02; 15:45:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 74627)
Black Blade
I was just starting to like that gal just a bit. Maybe she had enough character to tell them where to put it, in economic terms of course.
Wonder how long before they'll go to T & A to keep their ratings, course that means a few more replacements.
Cold beer only two hours away PDT.
Pizz
Black Blade
(04/30/02; 15:25:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 74626)
CNBC Boots Another One
I see that resident economist Marci Rossell has been "allowed" to spend more time with her family. I noticed that something was amiss when she was suddenly missing from the network commercials (the same ones that she was originally in). She has been more critical of Wall Street and the bogus reports from the government agencies (such as the BLS) lately. Apparently shecould not deal with palying the part of brainless cheerleader anymore.
"Interesting Times"
- Black Blade
Pizz
(04/30/02; 14:52:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 74625)
YGM
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htm
We've discussed derivitives off and on, but not too much lately.
Main reason is there is no difinitive data to analyze, since the bulk of the derivitives that we need to worry about are all "netted" out on the financials and you can't tell who's exposed where, how. and when. The other problem is that most of them are not exchange regulated (I know that's a bit of a joke) or exchanged traded and the terms can be whatever the two parties agree to.
I think Blake Blade found the above link a few days ago, and Puplava estimates current outstanding derivitives notional value at over 100 trillion.
Will this be what sends us over the edge. IMHO yes. It's only a matter of time (as Puplava states) before the whole mess comes unglued.
It's kind of like the biggest gambling game in world. Hundreds of thousand gamblers placing bets, some laying off the odds, some naked, and everybody's computer models say everyone is going to win. Can't happen.
It will come apart as soon as the liquidity and capital dry up, and it's already starting. The smart big players are cutting back activity (due to Enron), and the short duration derivitives will be the first to be covered. The problem with this is that there are many longer term players laying off (offsetting) with short term positions. Without the ability to renew or roll the short term positions, we'll have many players naked on their derivitives, and a couple spikes (rogue waves as Puplava like to call them) will start the end game.
JPM's backing away from major short term lines of credit for a good reason. A month or so ago Tyco drew down on something like 12 billion of bank lines right out of the blue. If you can't hedge your derivitive portfolio, you better have the cash, or if you know your're going to need it, best get it while you still can. Borrowing short and lending long only works if you can predict, hedge, and or control the short end. The same with derivitives, if there's no short end to hedge the long, you better hope for stability.
Pizz
YGM
(04/30/02; 14:03:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 74624)
Many Pages from Google search on 'Derivatives Collapse'
http://www.google.ca/search?hl=en&q=+site:www.gold-eagle.com+Derivative+Collapse
I find it interesting that few discussions here ever delve into the world of the Derivatives mess....YGM
Black Blade
(04/30/02; 13:55:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 74623)
Sorry - The Missing Link
http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,2763,707555,00.html
The link is to the previous snippit.
Black Blade
(04/30/02; 13:53:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 74622)
Sharon Takes Us Back To 1948
Snippit:
Indeed, there is even an ironic symmetry in the fact that Ariel Sharon's old "special" forces Unit 101 was as active in Jenin this month as it was half a century ago in the attack on the Palestinian village of Qibya in October 1953 when 69 civilians were killed, their houses blown up over their heads as the future Israeli prime minister oversaw the operation in person. Jenin can thus be seen as the latest episode in a long-running Israeli attempt to break the back of the Palestinian national movement by attacking its soft civilian underbelly. Sharon's ongoing assault on the authority in many ways represents a return to the raw existential confrontations of 1948 in the land of Palestine, albeit with an even greater imbalance in tools of confrontation available to each side.
Sunday's apparent resolution of the impasse over Arafat's imprisonment in Ramallah should not be misconstrued: Israeli rightwing triumphalism is in full swing and its appetite for colonial expansion and a "greater Israel" whetted again. Even before the latest violence, 34 new settlement outposts had been established by Sharon on the West Bank and plans are apace to expand into densely populated areas of Hebron and Arab Jerusalem. The apparent defeat of the authority can only serve to fire the right wing's enthusiasm for yet more radical solutions - including a return to the basics of "transfer", or ethnic cleansing, supported by about 50% of the Israeli electorate, according to opinion polls. Sharon is now likely to extend his war to Gaza and is still bent on the political, perhaps physical, elimination of Yasser Arafat. His ultimate goal is no less than the total subjugation and dissolution of the Palestinian national movement.
Black Blade: As I said, this conflict will never end. The whole region is a tinder box and US involvement only jeopardizes the US economy by putting our Oil supply at risk. We have nothing to gain and everything to lose. The whole Israeli invasion is the same as the US invasion of the West and subjugation of the Native peoples by forcing them onto slivers of usually the most worthless land. When the American Indian resisted we did not call them "terrorist", we called them "savages". The victor gets to write the history books.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,2763,707555,00.html
YGM
(04/30/02; 13:52:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 74621)
A Question For The "Wiser Forum Minds Here".....
http://www.credit-deriv.com/crenewsaug01.htm#argentina_enron
LINK...Credit derivatives News Aug 2001 to Date.
Question:.........Will Derivatives Market and exposure to same be the "Big Trigger" to financial Armegeddon????
Known Derivatives Exposure held primarily (estimated at 85/95%) by US Banks and their Holding Co's.....(Approx. figures all)
27+ Trillion $ in 1996
29+ Trillion $ in 1997
33+ Trillion $ in 1998
44+ Trillion $ in 1999
*I'm currently looking for 2000/2001 stats at treasury site.
RobotGuy
(04/30/02; 13:51:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 74620)
It just occurred to me,... North Americans seem to think that they aren't susceptible to suffering a long term recession....Hmmmm.
Just because the past follows a somewhat regular pattern of ups and downs, doesn't mean the future will duplicate that pattern. Perhaps hindsight may be 20/20, but forsight is completely blind.
mikal
(04/30/02; 13:43:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 74619)
@White Hills
Double, double, toil and trouble Paper BURN and cauldron BUBBLE Round about the cauldron go Witches chant the spell they throw Seeds of death and bodies plow Barren land and bloody brow Tobacco chew and bloody scarab Finger of babe and retching Arab Demons dance, watch it BUBBLE
YGM
(04/30/02; 13:37:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 74618)
Derivative Thread....
http://www.credit-deriv.com/crenewsaug01.htm#scandal
Excerpt--
Credit derivatives market had priced Enron collapse long before it was public
Next time, you need to predict the bankruptcy of a company, you do not have to run Altman's Z-score: simply look at the way the default swaps on the company's name are quoting. It is either a case of the credit derivatives market being used as a premonition for impending bankruptcies: it appears that good 2 months before the actual news of the collapse of Enron was out, the default swaps market had already begun pricing it.
An article in Forbes of 4th March says that on Aug. 15, the day after Enron's chief Jeffrey Skilling abruptly resigned, the default swap price on Enron moved up 18%, though there was no impact on the stock prices. On that day, default swaps were priced 185 basis points By Oct. 25, the default swap price had soared to 9000 bps which essentially meant the protection seller would get 90% to guarantee a 100% repayment of Enron's debt. The article says that even at that price, it was a great deal buying protection. Several banks did buy protection.
YGM
(04/30/02; 13:13:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 74617)
Press Release....Reg Howe Fights On....
With "Big Name Law Firms".....'Upping The Volume'
Berger & Montague, P.C. and Reginald H. Howe
Sue Kinross Gold Corp. And Related Persons
on Behalf of Unaffiliated Investors in Kinam Gold Inc.
PHILADELPHIA, April 30 /PRNewswire/ -- On April 26, 2002,
the law firm of Berger & Montague, P.C. and attorney Reginald
H. Howe, through the Nevada law firm of Kummer Kaempfer
Bonner & Renshaw, filed a class action suit against Kinross
Gold Corp. ("Kinross") (Amex: KGC - news), Kinross Gold
U.S.A. Inc. ("Kinross USA"), Kinam Gold Inc. ("Kinam")
(Amex: KGC.pb - news) and Robert M. Buchan, Chairman
& Chief Executive Officer of Kinross, in the United States
District Court for Nevada on behalf of all persons or entities
unrelated to Kinross who now hold Kinam Preferred Stock
or who tendered Kinam Preferred Stock to the issuer
tender offer (the "Tender Offer") by Kinross USA effected
February-March 2002.
A copy of the complaint filed in this action is available from
the Court, or can be viewed at (http://www.bergermontague.com)
or at (http://www.goldensextant.com).
The Complaint alleges that defendants, over an extended time
frame and in numerous separate steps, breached the terms
of the Kinam Preferred Stock, breached the fiduciary duties
owed by control persons and major shareholders to other
shareholders, violated the "best price rule" promulgated under
Section 13(e) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the
"Exchange Act"), violated anti-fraud provisions of rules
promulgated under Sections 10(b), 13(e) and 14(c) of the
Exchange Act, violated the anti-racketeering law set forth
in Section 207 of the Nevada Revised Statutes, committed
common law fraud, and violated New York Stock Exchange
Rule 311.03.
Since the 1998 merger pursuant to which Kinross acquired
control of Kinam, as alleged in the complaint, Kinross has
consistently and repeatedly acted to impair the value of
Kinam Preferred Stock in order to facilitate a subsequent
purchase at an unfair price, culminating in the coercive
and illegal Tender Offer of February-March 2002.
If you now hold shares of Kinam Preferred Stock, or if you
tendered shares of Kinam Preferred Stock to the Tender
Offer, you may, no later than 60 days from today, move
to be appointed as a Lead Plaintiff. A Lead Plaintiff is a
representative party that acts on behalf of other class
members in directing the litigation.
If you hold or tendered Kinam Preferred Stock, please
contact Berger & Montague, P.C. at investorprotect@bm.net
for a more thorough explanation of the Lead Plaintiff selection
process.
The law firm of Berger & Montague, P.C. has over 50
attorneys, all of whom represent plaintiffs in complex litigation.
The Berger firm has extensive experience representing
plaintiffs in class action securities litigation and has played
lead roles in major cases over the past 25 years which have
resulted in recoveries of several billion dollars to investors.
The firm is currently representing investors as lead counsel
in actions against Rite Aid, Sotheby's, Waste Management
Inc., Sunbeam, Boston Chicken, and IKON Office Solutions
Inc.
The standing of Berger & Montague, P.C. in successfully
conducting major securities and antitrust litigation has been
recognized by numerous courts. For example:
"Class counsel did a remarkable job in representing the
class interests." -- In Re: IKON Offices Solutions Securities
Litigation. Civil Action No. 98-4286(E.D.Pa.) (partial settlement
for $111 million approved May, 2000).
"...[Y]ou have acted the way lawyers at their best ought to
act. And I have had a lot of cases ... in 15 years now as a
judge and I cannot recall a significant case where I felt people
were better represented than they are here... I would say this
has been the best representation that I have seen." -- In Re:
Waste Management, Inc. Securities Litigation, Civil Action
No. 97-C 7709 (N.D. Ill.) (settled in 1999 for $220 million).
If you now hold shares of Kinam Preferred Stock, or if you
tendered shares of Kinam Preferred Stock to the Tender Offer,
please visit our website at www.bergermontague.com to view
the complaint and join the class action. If you have any questions
concerning this notice or your rights with respect to this matter,
please contact:
Merrill G. Davidoff, Esquire
Jacob A. Goldberg, Esquire
Kimberly A. Walker, Investor Relations Manager
Berger & Montague, P.C.
1622 Locust Street
Philadelphia, PA 19103
Phone: 888-891-2289 or 215-875-3000
Fax: 215-875-5715
Website: http://www.bergermontague.com
e-mail: InvestorProtect@bm.net
-END-
Jefreypeterson
(04/30/02; 13:04:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 74616)
HELLO FOLKS, Gooday to you all.
This sure is an informative and interesting forum, I'm happy I found it.
White Hills
(04/30/02; 13:04:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 74615)
Black Blade, Sierra Madre
The USA was attacked on 9/11. we have, and rightly so, launched an attack on world wide terrorism. The 9/11 attack was also economic and more such actions are threatened. An old saying seems appropriate, THE ENEMY OF MY ENEMY IS MY FRIEND. We have only one friend in the ME and that is Isreal. The fact that they are Jews is beside the point. White Hills
Cavan Man
(04/30/02; 12:50:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 74614)
@YGM
If wishes were horses beggars would ride.
Rock
(4/30/02; 12:32:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 74613)
Goldquest I agree with you buddy!
I don't worry about the gold dips because when gold spikes it spikes hard. You have to expect some down play here and there just like todays market is up pretty good but again it won't be sustained. I watched gold go from 260.00 to where it is today so I don't fret the days it dips a bit. All we need is one straw to break the camels back to change things in a moments time. Cheers to all,
Sir Rock
Pippin
(4/30/02; 12:02:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 74612)
"Flight from the dollar": Interesting article fom James Turk.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Turk/apr302002.html
First two paragraphs of a long article:
Quote
One of the most basic premises about which I have been writing for years is about to be tested. Will we get a flight from the dollar or will there be some other alternative? The moment of truth is rapidly approaching.
It has been one of my basic contentions that arguments about inflation or deflation have been misguided. Like generals who prepare for the future by fighting the last war, those who argue that we face inflation or deflation are looking backwards at past events to extrapolate their vision of the future. I see something different. I call it a flight from the dollar.
UnQuote
YGM
(4/30/02; 11:07:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 74611)
'Last 12' should read...
16.5 % in last 12 Months....
Nobody is better at double talk and B>S> than a Banker....
YGM
(4/30/02; 11:03:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 74610)
Get an Idea Of Where The Cabal "EXPECT" to Hold Gold Price for 3 Yrs.
SURE, OK!...4.2% for /02, 3.4% in /03, 4.5% in /04. = 12.1% for 3 yrs, How about 16.5% for LAST 12!
Deutsche ups 3-yr gold price forecasts
2002-04-30 16:00:44 GMT (Reuters)
LONDON, April 30 (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank said on Tuesday it was raising its forecasts for the average prices of gold over the next three years because of political tensions, strong market fundamentals and current high prices.
Deutsche lifted its forecast for the metal for this year by 4.2 percent or $11.90 to an average of $296.90 a troy ounce from its previous $285.
The bank added $10 or 3.4 percent onto its original forecast for 2003 to average $300 from $290 previously, with their assessment for 2004 rising by $13 or 4.5 percent to $305 from $292 an ounce.
"With prices closing on April 29 in London at their highest level since February 8 2000, our rising price profile built around a marked change in the dynamics of producer hedging and increased investment demand has already been exceeded," Deutsche Bank said.
"This has largely been the result of renewed strength in safe haven investment buying in the face of rising political tensions in the Middle east, mounting inflationary concerns fuelled by a weakening U.S. dollar and rising oil prices, continued investor concern about the security and stability of the Japanese banking system and weakness in the U.S. equity market," Deutsche said.
Traders have separately identified Israel's military incursions into the West bank, rising oil prices, the campaign to flush out Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters in Afghanistan, the threat of U.S. military attacks on Iraq and brittle U.S. equity markets as driving the price of gold to its present levels.
Gold ended in London on Tuesday at $307.30/307.80 a troy ounce, 16.5 percent higher than at this time a year ago.
Belgian
(4/30/02; 10:37:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 74609)
The Time is Right........(Aristoteles)
My intuition strongly says...it is !
The dollarblock has been pushing (postponing) the (currency)troubles away, with all the efforts possible, by drawning the yellow saviour. Euroland will manage its coming problems exactly the opposite way by praising Gold, again.
Different central bankers (US><Europ) have been managing Gold Reserves in quite some different ways for different (opposite) reasons. The result was a misleading kakofonie (potpourri). None of these central bankers will ever tell the general public what they were (are) up to. We can only extrapolate the possibilities by just acting as if we were running in their shoes during the different episodes of the management.
It takes quite some time before a currency has accumulated enough ballast from mismanagement before the final and sudden total collapse. Very analog with the management of stockmarket paper, managed with printed confetti.
The US$ as a currency is as falsified as its peer stockmarket paper(s). Tired, falsified, profitless and intrinsically worth much less as indicated ! Euroland's stockmarkets are priced much more reasonably than the US market. So is the intrinsic value of the euro.
Overvaluations are therefore systemic and general.
Those central bankers know VERY well what they have done and are doing with the intrinsic parameters of their respective currency and its reserves. They never forgot about Gold's utmost importance. But there is an appropiate timing and ritme/pace of development for everything.
I bet that the UK entrance in EMU (very soon) will enhance the intensity of Goldreserve's use. I even do suspect (false hope ?) that Japan might jump onto the euro/gold/oil concept to escape dollar-dictate as to survive in the midst of Asian's flaming rise. Japanese finance ministry complained, today, about the credit ratings on japanese debt! The US might possible have to retreat /regroup within the americas for dollarization. Argentina, Chili, Suriname and maybe a few others might chose for the euro-concept ?
The growing currency disorder is evolving into currency chaos and Gold will gradually rise and present itself again as the saviour. No pool of any kind can hold this for ever.
The central bankers have already anticipated the coming chaos with their respective positioning on Gold. And there must certainly be some very powerfull private identities having done the same. Evidenced by the yearly offer/demand deficit, agreed on by friend and foe. Regards to you Aristo.
goldquest
(4/30/02; 09:06:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 74608)
Spot Dive
Just shaking out the weaklings before the climb back. $315+ or- by close Friday!
darkhorse
(4/30/02; 08:45:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 74607)
?
Kitco's chart has spot at just above $307 and on a most uncomfortable looking dive...who's the bad guy today?
Mr Gresham
(4/30/02; 08:11:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 74606)
Black Blade
Just to repeat myself, one more time, again: In that squeezed 15-minute interval between when I wake up, and others wake up, it's a treat to read "The Morning Blade", rather than the Morning Blab.
You oughta stop and think about all the paperboys you're probably sending off to the Bone Pile? (They never really had a very good shot at our front porch anyway...)
(Shall we plan on a Cinco de Mayo "Negrafest" this weekend? Sierra Madre? Someone invite Hugo Salinas-Price? Time to celebrate many of Mexico's gifts to our economic understanding, and to thank it for never imposing a fiat currency in place of real value.)
Tommy P
(4/30/02; 06:55:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 74605)
adding to the bone pile
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk,&s2=ad_right1_topfin&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APM6NpRNcU2FudGFu
Internationally that is .
Henri
(4/30/02; 06:31:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 74604)
Spring Gobbler season is upon us
I'm off in pursuit of the elusive and noble prey, that would have our national symbol had Ben Franklin had his way.
Uh oh I've lapsed into rhyme, cb2 is contagious
Grubstaker
(4/30/02; 06:10:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 74603)
A GOLD "WHODUNNIT"....
Missing gold bars strike note of discord
Sherilee Bridge
April 30 2002 at 12:02AM
Johannesburg - Harmony Gold Mining's management team was left scratching their heads after two 1-ounce gold bars went missing at a presentation of the gold producer's March quarter results yesterday.
The case of five gold bars, all with the Harmony logo, were passed around during the presentation but returned to the owners two bars short.
Fearing a hoax, management waited for the bars to be returned but they failed to surface. Harmony director Ferdi Dippenaar said last night that the new bullion bars had still not turned up.
....Old precious yellow is known to do strange things to normally upright folks....
The ounce bars were valued at R3 283.50 at yesterday's spot price. Their value could rise with global political uncertainty. - Sherilee Bridge
Black Blade
(4/30/02; 05:06:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 74602)
Women continue with ‘gold rush’
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow.asp?art_id=8111425&sType=1
Snippit:
HANDIGARH: Women of the city are not bored with buying gold chains and bangles. Despite the rate of the precious metal soaring to Rs 4,900 for ten grams in the past few days, sales have increased to almost double, which proves that the fascination for the metal has not waned, but on the contrary has increased as the glittering metal becomes dearer. ‘‘Women of the region have a fetish for bangles and gold chains.The sale of these ornaments exceeds sales of all other ornaments,’’ says Arvind of Bhola jewellers, Sector 8 as orders pour in at his shop.
Although the excuse offered by buyers is that traditionally it is auspicious to buy gold during the navratras, jewellers are ecstatic about the rising trend in buying gold as an investment and speculate that this trend is here to stay. ‘‘People are once again confident that gold is not a dead investment and although prices are rising, they are nonetheless buying more of the precious metal,’’ revealed Sunil. ‘‘Gold as an investment is simple to buy and easy to dispose of and once again people's faith in it has been revived by the rising prices,’’ he added. An additional reason for city residents going back to investing in gold is also quoted as the cause behind erratic prices of immovable property.
Black Blade: Good article that states in no uncertain terms that demand for Gold has increased along with the price. The higher the price – the higher the sales.
Black Blade
(4/30/02; 04:56:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 74601)
From The Barbarous Relic Files
http://www.busrep.co.za/html/busrep/br_frame_decider.php?click_id=335&art_id=ct20020429221309906P650888&set_id=60
Missing gold bars strike note of discord
Snippit:
Johannesburg - Harmony Gold Mining's management team was left scratching their heads after two 1-ounce gold bars went missing at a presentation of the gold producer's March quarter results yesterday. The case of five gold bars, all with the Harmony logo, were passed around during the presentation but returned to the owners two bars short.
Black Blade: A lot of noise over a barbarous relic. Hmmm…
Black Blade
(4/30/02; 04:47:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 74600)
Crying Argentines
I just saw an interesting segment on the Argentine crisis. The first one was about the banking mess. they are going to have other segments today. The next segment will be about the barter trades. In a word - "GRIM"
If only they had some of those Gold Argentinos.
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(4/30/02; 04:40:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 74599)
The Price of Gold Is Shining. Hedging of Gold Is Not.
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/04/28/business/yourmoney/28PORT.html?ex=1020657600&en=ffab17332a27b772&ei=5006&partner=ALTAVISTA
Snippit:
The performance of Barrick Gold's stock shows that the sentiment of the gold market has swung sharply against hedging. Randall Oliphant, president of Barrick, said the battle over hedging "is a bunch of nonsense." But it is not, because it is having an impact on his stock.
Hedgers and anti-hedgers have been battling for years. Hedgers lock in the current price of gold, plus a premium, by borrowing gold, selling it and then investing the proceeds. They say this is good management and smart protection against a price decline. Anti-hedgers are more bullish on gold, saying hedging prevents a company from reaping the full benefit of a price rise. They talk much less about the downside risk.
Black Blade: The "Day of the Hedger" is over. Good article worth reading.
Black Blade
(4/30/02; 04:23:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 74598)
Chancellor Brown Loses US$700 Million Of UK Assets Through Gold Sales.
http://www.minesite.com/archives/features_archive/2002/April-2002/brown300402.htm
Snippit:
Let us hope that some keen gofer in the Treasury Office remembers to append the price of gold on a daily basis to the vital information arrayed on the Chancellor's desk when he enters his office in the morning. It will serve to remind him that his obstinacy over selling UK gold assets is costing the country more and more each day as the gold price rises and the US dollar falls. According to the calculations by Minews the sum is now US$ 700 million - a sum which could buy two or three hospitals and pay nurses a bit more.
Black Blade: This just gets better doesn't it? Looks like "stunning" results from the home office all right. I guess they may take the crown jewels from the queen next and sell them at Sotheby's.
Aristotle
(4/30/02; 04:16:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 74597)
Of course!! Thanks for the awakening rap on my noggin, Sir Belgian!
It's the ****Suits**** on the Board of Directors that are running scared! In that old post to you I completely overlooked the fact that even the smallest, grubbiest group of engineering-dominated mining companies will often have access to the Big League mentality via the Suits sitting on the Board. That makes many of these darling juniors of the Gold investment world more than the hapless followers of the Biggies that I made them out to be. It puts them right in the thick of the battle, many fighting for their tired old jobs rather than for the Right Market structure for their product -- Free Gold! Sheeeeeeeesh!! Will they ever learn?
Apparently they like to keep their executive positions where people will return their phone calls. Ha! Do they forget that raw massive wealth is persuasive and attractive, too, when it comes to having your calls returned? Personally, I'd rather take the days off -- load up on Gold having sold my stake in the company, and then do the media circuit spouting every chance about a Free Gold market. The time is right, wouldn't you say? Wouldn't you say that the primary central bankers are "open and receptive" to the idea, to put it in plain vanilla?
Maybe Chris Thompson, stepping down from a job well done at Gold Fields, will become the visible hero on the talk show tour while us "anonymous nobodys" remain in the shadows, smiling, nodding, and watching our Gold swell with recognized value. Whaddaya think...will anyone return our own calls? <smiling>
Ya know, that good old boy FOA was a helluva lot smarter than anyone openly gave him proper credit for. I'll bet he's got an answering machine that can't keep up while he's in the garden, the rascal. You think?
Sir Belgian, thanks for sharing your latest keen insights from Europe. Were they carved in stone, they'd be worth their weight in Gold -- double-spaced and with wide margins!
Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
Black Blade
(4/30/02; 04:09:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 74596)
Worldcom CEO Resigns - May File Chapter 11
Just over the wire is that Worldcom CEO Bernie Ebbers has resigned ahead of a possible Chapter 11 filing. The stock has fallen from $64 to $2.39. Reportly Ebbers has been asked by the board of directors to return hundreds of billions of dollars in company guaranteed loans. This should be "interesting" as I am sure his stock options are under water and he does not have the cash on hand. It should be noted that the company is under investigation by the SEC for "accounting irregularities". Hmmm...
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(4/30/02; 03:59:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 74595)
Media Gold Bears
I see that the financial media is bringing out the Gold Bears again. The latest was Howard Patten of Barclay's Capital. The usual line that central banks will sell Gold and that Gold is not a good investment, yada yada yada...
You get the picture. Meanwhile Gold is down almost $2.00 an ounce. Petroleum and the USD are relatively unchanged. However, the market indices are higher.
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(04/30/02; 03:35:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 74594)
Credit card late payments hit 5-year high
http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/credit/2002-04-29-late-payments.htm
Snippit:
Legions of less affluent consumers are falling behind on credit card bills, pushing late payments to the highest level in nearly five years and losses from uncollectable debt to an 11-year high. Charge-offs, the amount of bad card debt that banks write off, climbed to 6.59% in March, up from 4.74% a year ago and highest since February 1991.
Yet many consumers are reining in card use. In the first two months of the year, revolving debt, which is mostly credit card debt, grew at an annual rate of 1.2%, compared with 20.8% a year earlier, according to Federal Reserve data. Low interest rates help to explain the slowdown in card debt. Many homeowners have used low-interest home-equity loans or cash back from refinancing a mortgage to pay off higher rate card balances.
Black Blade: Looks like a recovery to me (yeah right). Consumers are tapped out and now many are putting their homes at risk. What insanity! Get outta debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, get a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program started.
CoBra(too)
(04/30/02; 03:35:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 74593)
@ R. Powell - Re: Gold Wars
Hello, Rich - see that Belgian has already answered. I may only state in addition that Ferdi Lips has been a staunch Gold Advocate throughout his career.
He has had the distinction to "found" the Rothschild Bank of Zurich in the late 60's or early 70's, where he has served as CEO for several yeras.
Ferdi went on to found the Lips Bank, which again was heavily involved in PM's. Have ordered his newest book too- regards cb2
Black Blade
(04/30/02; 03:25:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 74592)
Qwest faces new probe
http://money.cnn.com/2002/04/29/technology/qwest/index.htm
States said to investigate deals reportedly made to keep rivals quiet about expansion.
Snippit:
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Regulators in six states are investigating Qwest Communications International Inc. for making secret deals with rival telecom firms that agreed not to oppose Qwest's expansion of its long-distance operations, according to a published
Black Blade: Yep, another scandal on Wall Street. Glad I sold that dog (Qwest).
Black Blade
(04/30/02; 03:20:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 74591)
DuPont to Cut 2,000 Jobs, Close Parts of Two Plants
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APM12IBO5RHVQb250
Snippit:
Wilmington, Delaware, April 29 (Bloomberg) -- DuPont Co., the inventor of nylon, will eliminate about 2,000 jobs in its textiles unit and close portions of two plants in New York and Virginia as it prepares to shed the business.
Black Blade: And so it goes, the "Bone Pile" grows.
Belgian
(04/30/02; 02:53:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 74590)
@ Spartacus
The Brits are stepping up their Euroland adherence campaign, not because they suddenly became so continental minded...but because they feel/smell the dollar-block final reckoning. Euroland doesn't pushes the UK to speed it up because we are so in love with old time rulers...but we need them to finish off the new dollar imperialism.
Gold waits patiently in the background, whilst political events take a much higher profile over the strict monetary underlyings. And the economical aspects only come third in the row. The US external policies show a close analogy with european ambitions (wars-expansionism) in the periods 1914/1918-1940/1945. Remember TG saying that the US is rolling downhill and Euroland climbing uphill.
British citizens will accept (with reluctance though) to change side and the UK will remain the go-between of Euroland and the US. Tony has already been acting this way.
The present power struggles are currency battles for supremacy. Globalization has provided the same economic tools to all who want to participate and have therefore equal chances. The currency imbalances are the only obstacle left to be removed for having 100% equal economic arms/tools and chances. GOLD will be the arbiter !
Belgian
(04/30/02; 01:55:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 74589)
Hoi Randy
Euroland's debates on the "Le Pen" - effect(s) of anti-Euro stirring : The passionate (nationalist) French, waking up and in full defense (!!!) of the Euroland AND EURO (!!!)- CONCEPT(S). Yes, Sir...all debates conclude on that single one and most important aspect of *STABILITY*. Currency stability that is ! Yes, Euroland is concentrating on its euro-currency through thick and thin.
And here I do refer to the recently mentioned (discovered) Ferdinand Lips (Rich-GATA / Thanks). The Swiss *Another* and Gold-illumunati. The syntax (pdf) of his "Gold Wars", already says it all. Indeed, Lips even adds much more side aspects to Gold than I ever dared to contribute to it.
GOLD is the choice between Peace and Prosperity or war and chaos ! And all misery or happiness is currency related (simplified of course).
Today Sir Lips F. increased my personal deep affection for Gold with a quantum leap. Conclusion : He who dares and is able to bring GOLD back into its right monetary perspective is the winner. The globe can never walk away from GOLD too long and MUST always embrace it back with much regrets and feelings of guild.
Little note for Aristoteles : F. Lips is a former Rothschild executive and on board of several miners !?
Remember your question if and why miners are so scared of their own product * GOLD * ?
Spartacus
(04/30/02; 01:04:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 74588)
Prodi
http://markets.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3F9D8QM0D&live=true&useoverridetemplate=ZZZ6MJPM90C&tagid=IXLTN37YICC&subheading=currencies%20&%20money
Prodi attacks British ambivalence to euro
The president of the European Commission has sharply criticised the UK for its ambivalence over the euro and its emphasis on ties with Washington but stepped back from some of the most biting attacks in his prepared text.
"Perhaps Britain sees the special relationship with the US as giving it that extra leverage in the world," Romano Prodi said on Monday in a speech at the Said Business School in Oxford. "I don't think that is the case." He added that a decision on joining the euro was "a matter of political will and courage".
Arguing that "the UK's stance in Europe has often been too defensive", Mr Prodi said: "In a world of globalisation . . . no country can hope to be a global player if it stands alone. This political dimension has been understated and misrepresented on this side of the Channel."
The Commission president steered away from previously leaked prepared comments that Britain was "constantly . . . dragging its feet on vital issues" and was "happy to be a junior partner in a transatlantic relationship but afraid to take its rightful place alongside its European allies".
Brussels officials said the remarks were from an earlier version of the speech. Such drafts are often used to float ideas not present in the final text.
However, Mr Prodi did not stint from comparing the UK's predicament to the long decline of Venice after its peak as "a world centre of international finance and one of Europe's real powers". He concluded: "If you don't change and you don't adapt to the new reality, you simply disappear."
Black Blade
(04/30/02; 00:44:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 74587)
Asia Flat - Except Taiwan
Most Asian markets are flat, although the tech heavy taiwan market is hammered on lowered estimates of semi-conductors. It appears that the rest of Asia is in a holding pattern. Meanwhile petroleum is flat and Gold is lower by 30 cents.
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(4/30/02; 00:20:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 74586)
Chaos as Argentine banks re-open
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1957000/1957796.stm
Snippit:
Argentina's banks and financial markets reopened on Monday after a 10-day emergency shutdown. The first day of business as normal was predictably chaotic. The peso surged almost 9% due to the cash shortage and rumoured action by the central bank to prevent collapse. And the leading stock market closed the day 7% lower as investors showed increased nerves about the corporate outlook in the recession-stricken country.
Today's Argentina looks very different, with unemployment rates topping 25%, millions now relying on barter to feed and clothe their families, and shanty towns multiplying. The once-prosperous middle class is now protesting in the streets, and 27 people have died in food riots and other disturbances. Inflation in April is likely to run at 10%, boosted by the effects of the plummeting currency, while the economy is likely to contract as much as 15% this year. Four presidents and five economy ministers have come and gone, and Argentines appear to see no sign of improvement.
Black Blade: This is only the beginning. Japan will soon follow, perhaps as early as next year. Japanese are being setup just as the Argentines in order to salvage the insolvent bankers. Oh those poor people, if only they took personal responsibility and held Gold and Silver and kept enough cash on hand for several months expenses.
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