All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
elevator guy (12/30/02; 23:41:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 92987)
Where does the USA borrow its money from?
I often hear that we borrow money to go to war, and that the US national debt stands at 6 trillion.
So my question is, who do we as a nation, borrow money from?
The Federal Reserve? International bankers?
What is the collateral? The gold in Fort Knox? The property and lands of the USA? Our freedom from tyranny?
Anybody know?
physicalman (12/30/02; 22:53:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 92986)
test
test
physicalman (12/30/02; 22:52:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 92985)
test
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physicalman (12/30/02; 22:52:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 92984)
test
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LeSin (12/30/02; 22:04:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 92983)
TEST
TEST
TEST
LeSin (12/30/02; 22:03:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 92982)
TEST
Test
Test
canamami (12/30/02; 21:20:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 92981)
Forum down?
eom
canamami (12/30/02; 21:19:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 92980)
Forum down?
eom
canamami (12/30/02; 21:19:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 92979)
Forum down?
eom
Black Blade (12/30/02; 21:15:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 92978)
From The Mailbag
An interesting snippit of something that came into my email courtesy of Bill Bonner at DailyReckoning.com:
The financial media is making predictions for the year to come. Investor's Intelligence reports that twice as many advisors are bullish as bearish. They've almost all been wrong for the last 3 years. But that doesn't stop them. People such as Abbey Cohen and Ed Yardeni seem to have no sense of dignity or shame. Cohen expects the Dow will end 2003 at 10,800 - a nice 27% rise. Yardeni puts it at 10,500.
Of the 8 seers to whom Barron's posed the question, 6 said stocks would go up in the year ahead. Only one expected them to go down - a modest decrease to 7572. Richard Bernstein of Merrill Lynch said they would stay about where they are. Where's the surprise, we ask ourselves? That the Dow will fall? Or that it will fall much more than anyone expects? Stocks are still preposterously high...with the S&P trading at near 30 times earnings. The late, great bull market was the biggest ever...shouldn't the following bear market be equally impressive?
Profit margins are the thinnest since the Great Depression. And debts are the fattest they've been in many decades...perhaps ever. In the manufacturing sector, interest expense has risen from just 23% of profits in 1997 to almost 100% today. It was in 1949, if we recall correctly, that stocks recorded their lowest-ever P/E, below 6. If the Dow were to fall to '49-style P/Es, it would have to sink to below 2,000.
Black Blade: Corporate debt is wallowing at record levels and most is not likely ever to be paid off and many companies are in dire straights as credit ratings (Moody's and S&P) are cut clipping access to needed financing and calling in greater collateral for existing loans. We are more likely headed for a New Great Depression than we are likely to see a new bull. The perma-bulls like Goldman Sach's Abby Jo Cohen have no self respect (they are best described as legends in their own mind) as they have been so horribly wrong in recent years. They have access to some of the best data available and yet they spew out such tripe on a daily basis. It is shameful that they would prey on those who can least afford such blatant absurdities. These Wall Street boiler rooms fed the dot.com and tech bubbles knowing full well that many of those dot.bombs (now dot.gones) and tech shells had no chance of survival. Now it appears that these cockroaches are once again playing the American investors as fools. Now there are fewer "fools" left. I look for the US equities indices to fall sharply as the strain of crushing debt and falling earnings take a devastating toll.
And then there's this also from the mailbag:
DEFLATION VIGILANTES
By James Grant
The imaginary scene is the festive Christmas party of the Federal Reserve Board. "Do you realize," one of the distinguished governors says late in the evening, his words slightly running together, "how much more money we could print if we cut down just one minor national forest? We could paper the whole damn world with C-notes." The others laugh till they cry.
Essentially, this was the theme of the talk given by Fed governor Ben S. Bernanke, one of Alan Greenspan's new hires, at the National Economists Club in Washington on November 21. Bernanke, a leading monetary scholar, called attention to a potent anti-deflationary technology. Using a device called a "printing press," he said, the government can "produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost." The accuracy of that observation is indisputable. The question is why a sitting Federal Reserve official would choose to make it. The United States is a substantial net debtor to the rest of the world. The enviable American standard of living depends on the willingness of foreign creditors to regard the dollar as more than a piece of paper that can be printed "at essentially no cost."
Editor's note: James Grant is the founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, and author of several books including Money of the Mind: Borrowing and Lending in America from the Civil War to Michael Milken, and The Trouble with Prosperity. He is also a frequent economic commentator and columnist for Forbes, the Financial Times and various financial services.
Black Blade: Obviously foreign investors were not amused by Fed governor Ben S. Bernanke's remarks. While Toto is pulling back the curtain to expose the US dollar for what it is, Ben stoops down to give the little pooch a helping hand. If I were a foreign investor looking for safety and I was invested in US bonds and stocks, I would be very concerned. In fact I would be cashing in and running like hell for something more stable like oh I don't know Gold maybe? "Interesting Times"
ha_tey_o (12/30/02; 20:34:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 92977)
test
Where are today's messages?
darkhorse (12/30/02; 20:19:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 92976)
am i missing something?
is anybody else having problems with todays message board, or is it just me and mine?
steady (12/30/02; 19:45:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 92975)
test
test!
steady (12/30/02; 19:44:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 92974)
test
test!
cyberbat (12/30/02; 19:44:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 92973)
TEST
Testing to see if forum is on.
Elwood (12/30/02; 19:14:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 92972)
Test
Test
Gandalf the White (12/30/02; 18:59:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 92971)
HELP!!!!
WHO turned out THE LIGHTS???
<;-(
silvercollector (12/30/02; 18:41:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 92970)
Heeelllllloooooooooo!
Anybody home?
a nation of one (12/30/02; 18:21:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 92969)
?
?
Artie Farkle (12/30/02; 18:15:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 92968)
TEST
TEST
Artie Farkle (12/30/02; 18:15:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 92967)
TEST
TEST
slingshot (12/30/02; 17:59:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 92966)
test
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TownCrier (12/30/02; 17:56:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 92965)
test
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Paper Avalanche (12/30/02; 17:37:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 92964)
The lemmings are staring to catch on
A long-time co-worker and friend of mine mentioned to me last week that he was now giving greater credence to my earlier admonitions to bail out of the stock market and paper assets for the true value of gold and silver. Two years ago I was subtley rebuffed at the company Chrsitmas party when discussing the implosion of the credit/dollar bubble and the future of gold and silver. Now my phone rings. I do not post this to win the praise of my fellow goldphiles, but rather to provide some indication that the temperment of "Joe Sixpack" is changing significantly. The discussion of gold is no longer relegated to this and other sites. It is becoming the topic of discussion over martinis and at social events. The lemmings are closing in on our coat tails and will drive the "price" of gold to absolute new highs in short order.
My only hope is that I am able to convince my loving parents to extricate themselves from their soon-to-be-doomed paper ponzi scheme investments in time. I have been trying to do so now for two years now. No success. They will likely buy in at Dow 4,000 and POG 2,000.
The next 12 months will be the most cataclysmic that we have ever seen IMHO.
Paper Avalanche - CNBC sucks
Paper Avalanche (12/30/02; 17:36:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 92963)
The lemmings are staring to catch on
A long-time co-worker and friend of mine mentioned to me last week that he was now giving greater credence to my earlier admonitions to bail out of the stock market and paper assets for the true value of gold and silver. Two years ago I was subtley rebuffed at the company Chrsitmas party when discussing the implosion of the credit/dollar bubble and the future of gold and silver. Now my phone rings. I do not post this to win the praise of my fellow goldphiles, but rather to provide some indication that the temperment of "Joe Sixpack" is changing significantly. The discussion of gold is no longer relegated to this and other sites. It is becoming the topic of discussion over martinis and at social events. The lemmings are closing in on our coat tails and will drive the "price" of gold to absolute new highs in short order.
My only hope is that I am able to convince my loving parents to extricate themselves from their soon-to-be-doomed paper ponzi scheme investments in time. I have been trying to do so now for two years now. No success. They will likely buy in at Dow 4,000 and POG 2,000.
The next 12 months will be the most cataclysmic that we have ever seen IMHO.
Paper Avalanche - CNBC sucks
Paper Avalanche (12/30/02; 17:36:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 92962)
The lemmings are staring to catch on
A long-time co-worker and friend of mine mentioned to me last week that he was now giving greater credence to my earlier admonitions to bail out of the stock market and paper assets for the true value of gold and silver. Two years ago I was subtley rebuffed at the company Chrsitmas party when discussing the implosion of the credit/dollar bubble and the future of gold and silver. Now my phone rings. I do not post this to win the praise of my fellow goldphiles, but rather to provide some indication that the temperment of "Joe Sixpack" is changing significantly. The discussion of gold is no longer relegated to this and other sites. It is becoming the topic of discussion over martinis and at social events. The lemmings are closing in on our coat tails and will drive the "price" of gold to absolute new highs in short order.
My only hope is that I am able to convince my loving parents to extricate themselves from their soon-to-be-doomed paper ponzi scheme investments in time. I have been trying to do so now for two years now. No success. They will likely buy in at Dow 4,000 and POG 2,000.
The next 12 months will be the most cataclysmic that we have ever seen IMHO.
Paper Avalanche - CNBC sucks
Paper Avalanche (12/30/02; 17:35:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 92961)
The lemmings are staring to catch on
A long-time co-worker and friend of mine mentioned to me last week that he was now giving greater credence to my earlier admonitions to bail out of the stock market and paper assets for the true value of gold and silver. Two years ago I was subtley rebuffed at the company Chrsitmas party when discussing the implosion of the credit/dollar bubble and the future of gold and silver. Now my phone rings. I do not post this to win the praise of my fellow goldphiles, but rather to provide some indication that the temperment of "Joe Sixpack" is changing significantly. The discussion of gold is no longer relegated to this and other sites. It is becoming the topic of discussion over martinis and at social events. The lemmings are closing in on our coat tails and will drive the "price" of gold to absolute new highs in short order.
My only hope is that I am able to convince my loving parents to extricate themselves from their soon-to-be-doomed paper ponzi scheme investments in time. I have been trying to do so now for two years now. No success. They will likely buy in at Dow 4,000
The next 12 months will be the most cataclysmic that we have ever seen IMHO.
Paper Avalanche - CNBC sucks
Paper Avalanche (12/30/02; 17:35:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 92960)
The lemmings are staring to catch on
A long-time co-worker and friend of mine mentioned to me last week that he was now giving greater credence to my earlier admonitions to bail out of the stock market and paper assets for the true value of gold and silver. Two years ago I was subtley rebuffed at the company Chrsitmas party when discussing the implosion of the credit/dollar bubble and the future of gold and silver. Now my phone rings. I do not post this to win the praise of my fellow goldphiles, but rather to provide some indication that the temperment of "Joe Sixpack" is changing significantly. The discussion of gold is no longer relegated to this and other sites. It is becoming the topic of discussion over martinis and at social events. The lemmings are closing in on our coat tails and will drive the "price" of gold to absolute new highs in short order.
My only hope is that I am able to convince my loving parents to extricate themselves from their soon-to-be-doomed paper ponzi scheme investments in time. I have been trying to do so now for two years now. No success. They will likely buy in at Dow 4,000
The next 12 months will be the most cataclysmic that we have ever seen IMHO.
Paper Avalanche - CNBC sucks
Paper Avalanche (12/30/02; 17:35:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 92959)
The lemmings are staring to catch on
A long-time co-worker and friend of mine mentioned to me last week that he was now giving greater credence to my earlier admonitions to bail out of the stock market and paper assets for the true value of gold and silver. Two years ago I was subtley rebuffed at the company Chrsitmas party when discussing the implosion of the credit/dollar bubble and the future of gold and silver. Now my phone rings. I do not post this to win the praise of my fellow goldphiles, but rather to provide some indication that the temperment of "Joe Sixpack" is changing significantly. The discussion of gold is no longer relegated to this and other sites. It is becoming the topic of discussion over martinis and at social events. The lemmings are closing in on our coat tails and will drive the "price" of gold to absolute new highs in short order.
My only hope is that I am able to convince my loving parents to extricate themselves from their soon-to-be-doomed paper ponzi scheme investments in time. I have been trying to do so now for two years now. No success. They will likely buy in at Dow 4,000
The next 12 months will be the most cataclysmic that we have ever seen IMHO.
Paper Avalanche - CNBC sucks
Cavan Man (12/30/02; 17:30:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 92958)
Hey, it's gotta go up next year or....
WAIT TILL NEXT YEAR (A Cubs fan's lament)
Stock markets down third year in row
By Michael Morgan and Deborah Hargreaves
Published: December 30 2002 21:22 | Last Updated: December 30 2002 21:22
World stock markets will draw the line on Tuesday under a third consecutive year of losses which, taken together, represent the most severe bear market since the Great Depression more than 70 years ago.
The MSCI World total return index has lost 20 per cent in 2002, its worst yearly performance since 1974. In the early 1970s crash, the Dow marked the most severe falls. The declines of 2002 have been spread across the globe with UK, Japan and, particularly, Germany leaving the year in deeply negative territory.
This year's falls would deliver another blow to the equity culture, said Robert Buckland at Schroder Salomon Smith Barney. "Only the most experienced investors and brokers will remember a time when losses have been as severe as they have been this year, " he added.
Many insurers are already steering away from equities and looking to other investment classes. Some analysts now fear a wider fall-out, with market declines overflowing into the wider economy. -
"This is a crisis unfolding as badly as the Great Depression," said Albert Edwards, head of global asset allocation at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. "The economy doesn't feel like it yet but, in a year or so, it may do."
Cumulative losses for the FTSE World index since the start of 2000, after the bursting of the technology, media and telecoms bubble, total 43 per cent.
That was the worst three-year performance since 1929-31 when world markets fell 58.8 per cent, according to indicative indices calculated by researchers at London Business School. By comparison, world markets lost 39 per cent in 1973 and 1974 at the height of the world oil shock.
Weak economic growth, corporate scandals, bankruptcies, profit warnings, dividend cuts, asbestos litigation scares, the forced selling of equities, volatility and fears of deflation and conflict in the Middle East have all conspired to spook markets.
While the downturn in world markets has prompted one of the most dramatic liberalisations in monetary policy since the second world war, some equity market strategists believe further action is needed before many institutional investors are tempted back to buying shares.
The three-year downturn has slashed pension fund values for most individuals.
On Wall Street, the Dow has fallen 17 per cent, its worst performance for 28 years. The technology weighted Nasdaq composite has done even worse with a fall of 22 per cent. London is down 25 per cent. This month, London's FTSE 100 index extended a losing streak into eight consecutive sessions, its longest sequence of falls since its inception in 1984.
Tokyo rings out 2002 with a 19 per cent decline in the Nikkei 225 average. The market sank to a 19-year low in mid-November and suffered the ignominy of losses over nine consecutive trading days earlier this month, its longest losing streak for 11 years.
The European bourses suffered their worst year since 1974 with a fall of 22.1 per cent in the MSCI Europe index. Germany has lost almost 35 per cent as hopes for a recovery were frustrated.
Not to worry, we've the "PRINTING PRESS" eh?
Cavan Man (12/30/02; 17:23:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 92957)
Townie and all...
Thanks for doing the math. The article at Daily Reckoning today written by James Grant, DEFLATION VIGILANTES is a must read and might be worthy of enshrinement here at USAG.
Discard that crystal ball and back up that old F150!
TownCrier (12/30/02; 17:05:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 92956)
Euro eye on gold price
The price of gold has been rightly getting its share of attention for its movements these past couple months. Tomorrow we can tie a bow on it for the year with the latest Eurosystem of Central Banks quarterly mark-to-market operations for reserve assets.
Last quarter (end of September), each U.S. dollar held in reserves was valued at EUR 1.01; and gold was valued at EUR 326.98 per ounce.
From a U.S. perspective over this time period, we've watched the $322 price of gold hurdle to $350 per ounce.
The dollar, however, has fallen in relation to the euro, sinking from a Sept value of EUR 1.01 to EUR 0.95 today.
As alarmed as some may have been by today's tiny slide in the price of gold, they may be comforted (or perhaps more surprised) to learn that today's US$344 price, on the eve of the eurosystem revaluation, corresponds to a euro price of EUR 327, just a shade over the official book value carried this past quarter.
Currently (as of Dec 20th), the Eurosystem has a net position in foreign currency of EUR 240 billion.
Eurosystem gold and gold receivables total EUR 131 billion.
It may be instructive to make to crude approximations and assumptions. First, we will assume no significant portfolio adjustments have occured to change these figures during this past two weeks by eurosystem members. Second, we will (crudely) approximate that 100% of the position in foreign currency is in U.S. dollars (or at least assets that echoed its performance).
Using today's figures as an test case for tomorrow's real deal, the dollar slide from EUR 1.01 to EUR 0.95 represents a foreign currency position loss valued at EUR 14 billion.
Meanwhile, today's drop in market price of gold to match last quarter's EUR327 price provides no counter-compensation for the mark-to-market paper losses. For full compensation via the gold reserves, the eurosystem would need to see gold's free market value climb (overnight) by EUR 35 per ounce, corresponding to a year-end price of gold at EUR 362. In dollar terms, that is $381 per ounce.
I doubt that we will quite get there overnight, but as I stated, this exercise was meant to be merely instructive, being built quickly as it was on several crude approximations. At the very least, you should see in this the motivations behind euroland's position (political will) on the free gold market in the face of failing dollars.
Take heart, goldmeisters. Retracements in the price of gold are surely to be trifling and temporary. There is too much at stake to allow the perception of gold's value to be fed to the wolves upon the taint of its illusory derivative abundance.
When pricing opportunity and fincances allow, call Centennial and make arrangements to back your truck up to the loading bay... if you get my meaning.
Randy
Camel (12/30/02; 16:48:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 92955)
Golden Rule
A peaceful and prosperous New Years to all and thanks for the great education.
For what its worth, my feeling is that the US should not attack Iraq at this time. A real invasion would probably cause several hundred thousand Iraqi casualtiies, and it just doesn't seem justfied by the present circumstances.Enhanced security has allready been accomplished by the military buildup in case something more serious happens, such as fundamentalist coup in Pakistan, or finding Bin Laden .
Lets hope that Bush has sense enough to back off. The Golden Rule seems to apply to the present situation for the immediate future, or as Confucious would have said " Do not do to others what you would not have them do to you"
If there are any rogue nuclear bombs floating around it doesn't seem like attacking Iraq would do much to stop it now,. and if the Golden Rule doesn't work you allways have Mutually Assured Distruction.
If , as some have said ,the US is doing this to insure a supply of cheap oil then that seems even more reprehensible.. Any one with a pea for a brain saw all this energy crisis a stuff coming 30 years ago and nothing was done.
There still is a huge amount of pro-western sentiment in place like Iran. ,Pakistan ,Eygpt. Maybe somthing should be done to find something in common with them.
The camel for instance . It is not widely appreciated but the camel is evolutionarally speaking, an animal of exclusively American origin, That is something the two cultures have in common. The camel is also the animal most closely associated with conservation., and probably the animal most closely associated with gold. The lion may be linked by Astrology with gold;but as far as an animal having any real historical association with gold it would have to be the camel, when the civilizations of the ancient world had an insatiable appetite for silk and great quantities of gold flowed to China which had the world monopoly.
I have not read Sun Tzu carefully but I think it was he who said. " Every force carries with it an equal and opposit counterforce. Therefore when waging war use only the amount of force necesary to achieve your objectives"
Goldrush (12/30/02; 16:23:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 92954)
Possible Tax Revolt in Venezuela
CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuela's opposition threatened on Monday to add a tax revolt to a strike that has blocked oil exports and jolted world energy markets but so far failed to make President Hugo Chavez resign.
The leftist leader has thumbed his nose at massive marches, one of which brought a million demonstrators onto the streets of Caracas, and at a 29-day-old strike that has closed down shipments from the world's fifth-largest oil exporting nation.
"We're bashing up against a wall," one of the protest leaders, Carlos Fernandez, president of Venezuela's main business chamber, Fedecameras, told Reuters.
The opposition demands immediate elections and has refused Chavez's offer of a referendum on his rule in August, saying that if it waits that long he will wreck the country. Chavez says under the constitution August is the earliest date an election may be held to assess popular support for his rule.
"Today we are taking the road of legitimate civil disobedience," said another strike leader, union boss Carlos Ortega. "We will refuse to pay taxes to a regime which renders no accounts and squanders the money of the people."
The opposition could also call an assembly to rewrite the constitution, Fernandez said, adding that the law allows for such a move if it is clearly shown to be the will of the people.
Tax evasion is rife in Venezuela at the best of times.
Chavez, a former paratrooper who was jailed after a botched coup in 1992 but was elected in 1998, has fought hard against the strike, firing executives from state oil giant PDVSA and ordering troops onto halted oil tankers.
In a major role-reversal for the oil-rich nation, he has imported some gasoline to ease lines hundreds of cars long at filling stations. The government said that oil output would climb back to a third of normal next week, but PDVSA rebels said efforts to kick-start petroleum production were failing.
The squeeze on Venezuelan exports, which normally provide 13 percent of U.S. oil imports, have spooked world energy markets already fretting about a possible war in Iraq. U.S. crude futures jumped to a two-year high early on Monday before sliding sharply to $31.45 a barrel as the OPEC cartel indicated its readiness to come to consumers' rescue by boosting output.
The opposition, backed by business and unions but attracting support from most Venezuelans, accuses Chavez of authoritarianism, corruption and economic incompetence in what they say is a quest to establish a Cuban-style dictatorship.
Chavez condemns as "fascists" his opponents, who also backed a failed coup against him in April. His class war rhetoric and lengthy speeches that ramble from references to his grandmother to threats against his enemies make Venezuela's educated elite apoplectic.
The president, whose term is due to run until 2007, has seen his popularity plunge, even among his core constituency, Venezuela's poor majority. But, with about 30 percent support, he is more popular than any individual opposition figure.
Meanwhile, the country's economy is suffocating without petroleum, which normally provides 80 percent of exports and 50 percent of government revenues.
MARKETS COULD PANIC
While Chavez points to $15 billion in Central Bank reserves to allow him to withstand the strike, analysts say the economy, already in deep recession, could buckle if world financial markets panic about Venezuela in the new year.
Caracas-based political analyst Janet Kelly said she has hoped an agreement would be reached before economic pressures explode. But she said personal animosity between Chavez and the strike leaders was a barrier.
"Chavez is crazy, but like a fox. I wouldn't underestimate him. A critical rule of negotiation is never reveal that you're willing to give in tomorrow," she said.
"The opposition has equal problems, because if they really bring the country to a total crisis, of economic isolation, there is a point at which the country turns against them."
The opposition still holds cards it has yet to play, such as a march on the presidential palace in the Chavez stronghold of central Caracas. Many fear this could lead to violence, remembering the 19 deaths during a similar march before last April's coup.
Strike leaders are also organizing a nonbinding referendum in early February, although Chavez says he will pay no attention to the result even if 90 percent vote against him.
While holding firm around its petroleum core, the strike was fraying around the edges, with many smaller companies and restaurants opening their doors.
Several hundred thousand opposition supporters marched in Caracas on Sunday, but the protest was a fraction of the size of a million-strong demonstration a week earlier.
Talks between the opposition and the government, brokered by the Organization of American States, have made little progress. In public, communication between the two sides is largely limited to threats and insults.
"Chavez treats this like a war. He's a soldier and soldiers think of war as victory or defeat. If he were a democrat, which he isn't, he'd be giving some," said Fernandez.
_____________
Silvercollector-Oil prices dropped because OPEC said they might
pump more oil in mid-January. That affects CRB that affects
PMs-my guess
silvercollector (12/30/02; 15:54:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 92953)
So we were whacked at 12:10 this afternoon.....
Any news or anything to be concerned about?
Goldrush (12/30/02; 15:40:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 92952)
BB- just found this alarming story that relates to FBI search
http://dynamic.washtimes.com/twt-print.cfm?ArticleID=20021227-131928
"The BIG One"
U.S. intelligence officials say there are signs terrorists are planning a major attack during the holiday season. But the signs are not specific enough to issue a warning to the public.
Increased chatter among terrorist groups associated with the al Qaeda network has been a common indicator in the past. Intelligence agencies have been picking up signals since early December from terrorist suspects indicating that an attack is being planned.
"They are talking about 'the big one,'" an intelligence official tells us.
U.S. government public warnings about terrorism over the Christmas and New Year's holiday have been limited to overseas-travel advisories.
The latest intelligence says a major terror attack could be carried out in the United States, the officials said.
The FBI warned this week that terrorists may attempt to blow up an airliner using explosives-laden shoes, similar to the attempt a year ago by accused shoe-bomb suspect Richard C. Reid.
CIA Director George J. Tenet said in a recent speech that the al Qaeda network is preparing terrorist attacks. He noted that recent taped messages by al Qaeda leaders were "unprecedented in their bluntness and urgency."
Black Blade (12/30/02; 15:33:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 92951)
Breaking News - FBI Search For Terrorist Suspects Expands
Just out is news that the FBI is looking for 19 suspects of ME origin who entered the US illegally. They only have pictures of the five previously announced. The FBI is "very concerned" though they do not say they are suspected of terrorism activity. Quite a statement that raises a few eyebrows.
- Black Blade
Off to the gym!
Black Blade (12/30/02; 15:25:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 92950)
Getting precious
http://cnniw.yellowbrix.com/pages/cnniw/Story.nsp?story_id=35510994&ID=cnniw&scategory=Metals+%26+Minerals%3APrecious&
Snippit:
Something is putting a new glint in the eyes of private investors and city speculators, something as old as history. It is the gleam of gold: the oldest precious metal known to man, coming back into its own as investors forsake the fluctuations of stocks and bonds and even paper currency for an ancient bulwark against uncertain times. Earlier this month, the price of gold went over $350 an ounce, the highest level for six years. The price had fallen to around $250 an ounce during 2001, but amid the economic uncertainty in the wake of 11 September, gold, which traditionally does well when other types of assets are floundering, is coming into its own once again. City analysts and speculators who had formerly spurned what John Maynard Keynes mocked as "a barbarous relic" now seem to be turning away from the stock markets to go for gold.
Black Blade: Yessiree Bob! Gold is the investment of the future though the article points out that Gold was the investment of the past as well. A good article though.
Goldrush (12/30/02; 15:22:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 92949)
States desperate for revenue eye internet tax
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1035776065929&call_pageid=968350072197&col=969048863851
SACRAMENTO, Calif.As American states struggle with deficits well into the billions, many officials are beginning to eye sales taxes on online shopping which may seem like chump change but could spare countless government programs.
In California alone, such taxes could raise at least $200 million (U.S.) yearly. Nationally, local and state governments could add billions to their coffers.
"We can no longer ignore an entire segment of the retail marketplace," said Pat Leary, lobbyist for the California State Association of Counties and a frequent online shopper herself.
Internet shopping is expected to climb to $40 billion this year, from last year's $30 billion, according to New York-based Jupiter Research.
It could reach $105 billion within five years.
This year's tally includes $10 billion for computers and accessories, $4.7 billion for clothes and $2.8 billion for books, and much of that is untaxed.
Collecting sales taxes won't be easy, though.
Under a U.S. Supreme Court decision, a state cannot force a business to collect sales taxes unless it has a physical presence, or "nexus," in that state.
Without such a requirement, many online retailers balk at having to compute the hodgepodge of local and state sales taxes across the nation.
Most customers duck their duty to pay the sales tax themselves and most states don't go after them.
Though Congress could authorize states to collect these taxes for other states, lawmakers have never done so and in fact have approved a moratorium through Nov. 1, 2003, on Internet-only taxes, including a sales-tax structure that would apply only to e-commerce.
Now, the issue is taking on fresh urgency in state capitals, where last fiscal year governors collectively sliced $13 billion from state programs and are preparing to whack billions more, according to the National Governors Association.
California's Legislative Analyst's office concedes the state which has a projected $35 billion budget deficit has few options if Congress doesn't change its tune.
But the state can at least force retailers with stores in California such as Borders and Barnes & Noble bookstores to collect taxes on Internet sales to state residents. Those stores currently do so for a few states, but not California.
Estimates vary widely on how much governments are losing.
One widely cited study by the University of Tennessee says states, cities and counties nationwide lost $13.3 billion in revenue last year from uncollected e-commerce sales taxes.
That's about 3 per cent of total sales tax revenues that year, a percentage projected to increase to 6 per cent by 2006. For a handful of states, it could approach 12 per cent by 2011.
Another study, for the Utah-based Institute for State Studies, predicted annual losses up to $45 billion by 2006.
By that analysis, California last year lost $1.75 billion in revenues, while Texas and New York followed with about $1 billion each.
_________
Goldquest-I noticed the dollar dip under 102 -wow
I wonder when we might hear a news blurb about the feds
having to buy silver this year for the mint?
Black Blade (12/30/02; 15:15:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 92948)
Can Investing in Gold be the "golden opportunity" for you?
http://biz.yahoo.com/twst/021230/raw400.html
Snippit:
New York--December 30, 2002-- In an in-depth (11,700 words) Roundtable Forum, John Bridges, an Analyst at J.P. Morgan Securities, Victor Flores, a Senior Analyst with HSBC Securities, John H. Hill, an Analyst with Salomon Smith Barney and David Mallalieu, a Gold Analyst for Scotia Capital, examine the outlook for the sector and share specific stock recommendations. This interview is part of a 102-page Investing in Gold Issue featuring in-depth interviews from five analysts, two money managers and top management from nineteen sector firms.
Mr. Bridges: It's really a play between the strength of the dollar and the gold price. In the first half of 2002 the gold price went up strongly as a result of the weak dollar. That was great until May/June when the dollar decided it had declined enough. We first had a big pullback, and it was very encouraging for the bulls of gold stocks and the metals that even though the gold price didn't come back to the $330 high that it hit in May, the gold stocks came back in anticipation of a stronger gold price and continue to be firm.
Mr. Hill: As we survey the landscape, we would say that the drivers have been pretty well advertised and they're extremely powerful. We have had three consecutive down years in US equities, which we haven't seen since the late 1930s or early 1940s. We have a combined, somewhat nightmarish mix of inflationary and deflationary scenarios - in either case, we think gold does well. We see an intransigent situation of dual deficits, both on the trade front and in terms of the federal government's outlook. Also, there's the fragile dollar, as John pointed out. I don't have anything original to add as to whether there are consumer, credit, or housing bubbles, but these issues do affect the gold market.
Mr. Vail: I think so. You have to go back to the supply issue. We have three major producers, AngloGold (AU), Barrick (ABX) and Newmont (NEM), that cannot replace the gold that they produce every year, so where do they get it from? Either they go out and look for it, and we said they can't do that because the price isn't high enough, or they buy it on the stock exchange. I think reserve and production replacement has been driving the consolidation that we've seen and continue to see.
Black Blade: Some interesting comments here and what many of us already know. So I would say those of us here at the forum are well ahead of the curve. However, this is only part of the report and perhaps there is more pertinent info within. There is a major shift in favor of gold as far as the sentiment by major players. Today's price drop was merely a sideshow event as speculators rebalanced the books and is the whole scheme of things is really a non-issue. The fundamentals strongly favor gold even as the global economy is in a shambles. This report is offerred for $175, but I suggest you save the $175 toward a gold or silver purchase as you can get a quality Gold Education right here. I look forward to a "Golden New Year".
TownCrier (12/30/02; 15:13:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 92947)
HEADLINE: Brazil's Central Bank Doubles 2003 Inflation Forecast
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Economies&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&middle=ad_frame2_all&s=APhC5ehV6QnJhemls
Brasilia, Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's central bank more than doubled its 2003 inflation forecast to 9.5 percent, signaling it may raise interest rates for a fourth month in January to stem price rises.
The inflation estimate is higher than the 4.5 percent the central bank forecast in the previous quarterly report on Sept. 30 and lower than economists' forecasts of as much as 14 percent for next year.
President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who takes office Wednesday, must slow inflation now running its fastest pace in six years in order to stem the currency's decline and restore investor confidence the country won't default on $320 billion of debt, analysts say.
Siobhan Manning, a sovereign debt strategist at Caboto USA Inc. said Brazil may raise rates in January by another 100 basis points ``as the central bank team recommits to price stability.''
Lula's administration, which has vowed make fighting inflation a priority at the central bank, today announced measures to address rising consumer prices.
--------(article at url)-------
A time comes when you must simply step away from the game. Cash in your chips for gold. Centennial is here for you -- help is one easy phone call away.
R.
VanRip (12/30/02; 15:09:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 92946)
Warren Buffett's Golf Game and Pro Forma Earnings
There was a short article in yesterday's Financial Times about Warren Buffett (sorry, no link). He blasted pro forma earnings saying among other things that they were earnings before the bad news.
He went on to say that his golf score was often below par on a pro forma basis. He said he was restructuring his putting so he only counted the swings he took to reach the green.
Goldrush (12/30/02; 15:07:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 92945)
I don't remember, I can't recall
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APhC_HxUrSi5QLiBN
New York, Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Vice Chairman Donald Layton testified that he didn't recall a 1998 e- mail detailing oil and gas trades with Enron Corp. when he called similar transactions ``disguised loans'' six months later.
``I don't actually have a recollection of learning about it,'' Layton told a federal jury in New York.
Layton said he didn't know about the Enron oil and gas trades in May 1999 when he ordered a full review of the internal accounting of transactions in which the bank prepays money to a client for future delivery of commodities. Layton, who referred to the transactions as ``disguised loans'' in e-mails, said he didn't recall getting an e-mail in December 1998 about the Enron trades.
Layton took the witness stand today in a civil trial in which the No. 2 U.S. bank is seeking to force 11 insurers to pay $1 billion on surety bonds that guaranteed trades involving Enron, the bank, and an offshore company. The insurers, including Chubb Corp. and CNA Financial Corp., refused to pay after Enron's collapse, claiming the bank tricked them into backing loans, not trades.
J.P. Morgan has posted net income of more than $1 billion in just four of the last 10 quarters. The bank has classified the bonds as nonperforming assets and said it won't write off the money unless it loses in court. Losing the $1 billion would erase almost a third of the $3.1 billion in profit before taxes the bank earned in the first nine months of this year.
Layton is the highest-ranking bank employee to testify in a trial that began on Dec. 2. U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff ruled last week that the Layton e-mails may be admitted into evidence, rejecting arguments by J.P. Morgan lawyers that they should be excluded because they might prejudice the jury.
TownCrier (12/30/02; 14:56:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 92944)
Brazil central bank sells dollars
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?mnu=news&ptitle=Currency%20World&tp=ad_uknews&T=news_storypage99.ht&ad=world_currency&s=APhCGGxYNQnJhemls
Sao Paulo, Dec. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's currency weakened for the second day in three as some companies bought dollars to pay debts, expenses and dividends overseas before year-end.
The currency weakened 0.4 percent to 3.5505 reais per dollar at 12:43 p.m. New York time.
Limiting declines, the central bank sold dollars to bolster the real today after its nearly 35 percent plunge against the dollar in 2002, traders said.
The low volume of currency transactions caused the foreign exchange rate to be volatile throughout the session, investors and traders said.
``It wouldn't take much money to change the direction of the currency today due to the low volume,'' Battistel said. ``I had a few clients buying dollars to pay debt abroad but also had clients selling dollars from exports to make cash in reais and pay costs.''
---------(article at url)-------
After a tough year for the Brazilian currency (down 35 percent against the dollar), the central bank has now doubled its forecast for 2003 inflation. More dollars to be forthcoming through intervention... a politically passable excuse to trim the holdings of the wasting U.S. currency?
R.
goldquest (12/30/02; 14:51:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 92943)
US Dollar
quietly slipped under 102!
mikal (12/30/02; 14:47:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 92942)
Daily Market Report
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon Warner
December 30, 2002 (usagold.com)
Excerpts:
U.S. public companies have shattered bankruptcy records for a second straight year as accounting fraud and the last decade's debt spree brought down corporate giants, and experts are bracing for more such woes. All told, 186 public companies with a staggering $368 billion in debt filed for bankruptcy in 2002, according to tracking service BankruptcyData.com. That is the largest asset total ever, sweeping past last year's record $259 billion. Bankruptcy experts are bracing for a new crop of failures by companies that depended on companies that went bust. "I don't think we're going to see any dip in bankruptcy filings," said Alan Feld, a bankruptcy attorney with Manatt, Phelps & Phillips in Los Angeles. "I think it's going to get worse before it gets better.".....
Comment: Gold took a hit in late trade on the Comex today on profit taking in thin conditions as institutional and individual investors rebalanced portfolios ahead of year-end book squaring. The current selling activity is essentially a sideshow and the real test will be how gold performs going into the New Year. Gold fell in tandem with other commodities as profit taking was across the board. Petroleum prices fell sharply on statements from OPEC that they may increase production in mid January to force down prices. This obviously had an impact on the precious metals. However, the precious metals remain well supported on a weaker U.S. dollar, weaker equities markets, grim economic data, and rising geopolitical tensions. Traders also appear anxious to cover short positions on price dips as seen today when gold fell over $8 an ounce and quickly recovered some losses. Another plus for gold is the strong global physical demand as evidenced recently by consumer buying in the newly liberalized market in China and a resurgence of buying in Japan. Gold producers continue to unwind forward sales positions in a vote of confidence for rising gold prices and an expectation of greater gains with a full exposure to the gold price. There has been a slight increase in exploration activity in the gold industry, however, any viable mining operations that result are still several years off ensuring a tight supply going up against rising demand. End snipitts
Thanks Black Blade!
steady (12/30/02; 14:38:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 92941)
market movement!
with a higer price of gold comes a higher price of price swings. no big deal!
Sovereign (12/30/02; 14:11:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 92940)
Who are the "High Contracting Parties" to the ECB?
Thanks for the web address, Goldfly.
That address was www.ecb.int/pub/legal/escbstatutes_en.pdf
According to this information, The European Central Bank is, I guess, 'contracted into' (meaning owned, I presume), by the so-called "High Contracting Parties" (in turn, meaning the national European central banks).
If the owners of the ECB are the respective European CBs, then the question becomes, who OWNS the CBs that own the ECB?
I think this is a matter of utmost importance, don't you all agree? Do any of you know who owns the French, English or German central banks? None of them are apparently headed by persons who wield real authority anyway. (I remember watching that Trichet chap on TV when I was in France on a holiday trip; he is a French central banker, whose name means something like cheating in French, if I'm not mistaken. A very pale copy of Greenspan; even mousier).
Yes, WHO PULLS THEIR STRINGS?
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (12/30/02; 13:31:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 92939)
"Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"
Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?
Probably not. But that is precisely what you have done if you own
stocks, bonds, cds, money markets or anything denominated in U.S.
dollars.
Sooner or later gold is going to react strongly to this simple dynamic:
The dollar has been continuously devalued without stop for the past 57 years. It has
not appreciated against goods and services once -- not even once -- in that entire time period.
There are periods when this policy has not been fully reflected in the price of gold.
Is "Now" one of them? "Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"
If you've received your initial information packet from us, you qualify to
receive this important report FREE OF CHARGE.
Please call 800-869-5115 if you would like us to send it to you --
Contact:
George Cooper Ext 102
Jonathan Kosares Ext 110
Marie Ballard Ext 106
We look forward to your inquiry.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (12/30/02; 13:19:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 92938)
Why gold? Why now? (And how to get it...)
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/aboutcpm.html
