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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...

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The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

 

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 9/30/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Simply Me (9/30/01; 23:32:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 62729)
****The World Is a Different Place Today Than It was 9/10/01 ****
TRUE.

The world changed on September 11, 2001 because the American people changed. This giant and powerful United States is motivated by it's people. That's one of the reasons it takes so much to move this country in any direction. When we feel safe we squabble about ideals and political theories and dividing the fiat and the territory.

On September 11th, no one in the country felt safe anymore. And no matter where you were in the world on September 11th, the world became a more dangerous place. It doesn't matter who planned the attack. It doesn't matter who carried it out. What matters is that on September 10th, the sleeping giant (the people of the US) was feeling healthy, safe and secure. It's only worry was (the giant thought) a normal and temporary economic downswing. On September 11th, the giant was feeling wounded, angry and violated. And when the safety of the people of the United States is threatened, entire world became less secure. It was the sudden realization that if such a massacre can be inflicted on the wealthiest and most powerful people in the world, then anyone anywhere can be subjected to the same fate, or worse.

On September 10th, the less secure parts of the world were investing in the sluggish but "safe" United States. In secure times, people invest in homes and commerce. Wealth is trusted to the hands of others.

On September 11th, there was no safe place left in the world...so investment was pulled out of stocks and put under mattresses or turned into gold. In insecure times, people pull their wealth back to their own hands. When the survival instincts are awakened, people want quick liquidity and portable wealth, ie: cash and gold.

The people...the grassroots, where ALL investment begins...did not read all the anti-gold articles and hear all the anti-gold reports, they just did not hear gold being recommended. And, as Trail Guide/FOA has said many times, gold is embedded in the every-day man's psyche as true-wealth-in-hand through thousands of years of proven use. So, when survival instincts were awakened, gold (and silver) was the first thought after immediate family safety. And it was CHEAP safety, because the paper market had made it so. But the paper market cannot get liquid so fast at these prices...and so the price of gold rises, driving the paper shorts out. And as the paper shorts get out, the price rises more! And as the price of gold rises, the dollar falls, drawing even more interest in gold. And so the cascade of events goes.

It was trickling in that direction on September 10th. Yes, on September 10th, the stock market was already headed downhill. Yes, the dollar was already beginning to lose value. Yes, we were seeing upward pressure on gold. But on September 11th it became a barely manageable flood. And just as soon as another event reinforces our fears, the flood will overflow the "short" levies and the paper market will fall.

The markets run on emotions even in the best of times. And when emotions turn fear, anxiety and insecurity...the money runs to gold.

simply me


Canuck (9/30/01; 22:24:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 62728)
Why the massive buildup?
If the western alliances are looking for small patchy groups of rogues hiding in caves and barren terrain why the massive buildup?

The proportionality of 'us' versus 'they' seems to be rather disporportionate, no? Reminds me of the statement in the paper Friday of "dropping million dollar bombs on ten dollar tents".


DOCDPB (9/30/01; 22:19:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 62727)
****The world today is a different place than it was 09/10/01****
False

The world is the same. It is our perception that has changed. Pre 9/11/01, Americans could be excused for thinking that the world was not a dangerous place. But just as a volcano stores up its energy over time, so too has much of the world stored up its resentment against us, only to be unleashed at an unexpected time. Indeed the world has not really changed, only our perception of the world has changed.

For the past several decades, gold's value has increased in a way that has outperformed every other investment bar none. But as ANOTHER would say, "Can you not see this?" It all depends on your perception. With today's paper pricing system, we do not see this. But just as we did not see the terrorists coming, so too will we not see the explosion in the gold price until it is too late.


Canuck (9/30/01; 22:12:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 62726)
@ Beer Man
With the amount of gold in that tree I don't think I could be so lucky! ;)

On the other hand I may have to erect an underwater 'scarecrow' to chase away the fish staring at my anchor. They are drawing attention!!

Canuck.


Netking (9/30/01; 21:48:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 62725)
"When nothing glitters, there's always Gold" - Times Of India
http://www.timesofindia.com/articleshow.asp?art_id=424530413
Snippet:
MUMBAI: When stocks are beaten to a pulp, when bond holders are wringing their hands, when interest rates have crashed, when the speculative bubbles in high-tech stocks have burst, where does one go?

Gold, interestingly, is turning out to be the investment of choice. India being one of the largest consumers of gold in the world, (with over 900 tonnes bought annually), analysts state that consumers are making a beeline to shore up on the yellow metal.

Following the September 11 attacks on New York and Washington, the price of ten grammes of 22 carat gold has skyrocketed by about ten per cent. Share prices, analysts argue, have fallen by more than 20 per cent in the aftermath of the attacks. . .

Jewellers state that in a likely ‘‘war scenario’’, the price of the metal fluctuates practically every hour.

As a city-based jeweller points out, ‘‘If war breaks out, the dollar will be weakened further. Today, investors look towards the dollar and the yen for easy appreciation. And gold is the next best alternative.’’

‘‘When assets such as stocks, treasury bills or bonds see an erosion, gold comes in as the saviour, for it can be encashed anytime, anywhere,’’ said one gold trader, speaking to this paper on condition of anonymity. He pointed out, ‘‘Right now, there is a nervousness in the market and a long-drawn battle in the desert may see the price of gold vault over the Re- 5,000 level.’’
------------------------------------------------------------
Rich(62719)"Another FOMC meeting Tuesday, can the buck withstand another rate cut???"
Netking > My "best guess" is that we will not see another rate cut at the next meeting, but maybe the one after. They've been pouring in money to prop & strength the markets (maybe $100 Billion)since 9-11, I think they may go for a "steady as she goes" response to the rates this time & keep a real close eye on things . . . and keep pouring in money . . .


Maiden Fan (9/30/01; 21:07:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 62724)
****The world today is a different place than it was 09/10/01****
True,

The world is a different place than it was since the tragic events of 09/11/01. Americans should be asking themselves "why do they attack us and not other western countries?, why is America the object of such hatred throughout the world?". Do we as Americans have the courage to ponder these questions honestly? Can we think for ourselves a little and question the conventional wisdom that they hate us simply because they envy our freedom and democratic government? I believe that one of the most powerful forces in human nature is the anger that develops when one has been taken advantage of in an economic sense. When one looks back at history, the most peaceful eras have been those that have had honest money (gold) as the basis for society. Is it any wonder that in this current era of 100% dishonest money controlled by America (fiat dollar) that we have the sort of resentment and anger in the world that shows up in the form of suicidal terrorist attacks against us. The events of 09/11/01 will make us think.


Curious (9/30/01; 19:57:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 62723)
******* The world today is a different place than it was on 9-10-2001*******

False. Although the world today is the same world that existed on 9-10-2001, the people's perception of that world has changed drastically and some are now aware for the first time of the terrorist threat to our way of life. This was reflected in an instant major decline in the stock market when it reopened and a rush by some to buy gold and silver coins as insurance. TPTB tried to hold the gold price down, drastically increased the money supply and reassured the sheeple that all is well. The vast majority refuse to recognize reality and are waiting for this dip to reverse so their stock market gains will continue as before. Its not gonna happen.

Some of the experts are fooled. My sister's son in law issued an alert to the effect that all is well, this is a temporary decline, stocks will recover etc. and he told her to hang on. He was a college economics professor before he became a stock market advisor. Would he B S his own family?

There are at least two schools of thought out there. The believers in Big Al and the Clinton Miracle say hang on while the believers in the Austrian School with the old conservative mindset believe that the laws of economics do not change and that although the government can manipulate the numbers for a while, eventually they will return to normal and the further they rise, the further they will fall.

The main problem is the people on this site are one to three years ahead of the market and did not realize the stupidity of most investors who will hang on until they have lost it all and are then forced to sell. The automatic investment of 401k funds also supports the market even if the owners of these retirement funds are skeptical.

Another and FOA will probably be proved right in the end but if the timing is later than was anticipated, we have lost money in the meantime. Perhaps they did not fully appreciate the impacts of the manipulation of gold or the extent and dollar volume of the derrivatives exposures. Who knows the date of the big change? One week, one year or five years in the future? It will happen suddenly and if one does not have gold and silver, it will be too late with no additional specific warning. Better a year early than a day late. We live in interesting times.


Shermag (9/30/01; 19:55:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 62722)
****The World Is a Different Place Today Than It was 9/10/01 ****
True. In a word, we are now at WAR! And this one promises to entail all that is ruinous of wars. It will kill soldiers and civilians alike. It will destroy capital and wealth. It will be inflationary. It will likely be protracted.

This war also has a new dimension, or at least an old one not seen for a long time. The enemy is not clearly defined and poorly identified. He will be evasive and scattered. As we strike back, we risk forging a new resolve in our enemy. And no matter how we strike, we will likely create many new recruits in our enemy's cause. (That is not to say that we must shirk from a forceful response, for there is also a cost to inaction.) IN short it will be a difficult one to end without great cost.

All this, at a time when the worlds financial structures are very weak, will hasten the demise of king dollar, and usher in a renewed prominance of gold as an asset of wealth and trade settlement.


Mr Gresham (9/30/01; 19:41:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 62721)
Bugos at his best
http://www.safehaven.ca/GB-GIC/GIC092901.htm
What a mind! And we need subtleties like his to weave our way through the morass we've been led into these past years.

Interstate: I wish I had an easy answer for you. They (FOA/A) do not provide statistical correlations to the pictures they paint for us. They talk about worlds (oil, central banking) whose doors we do not walk through, and we are really still neophytes in them.

The "proofs" of their predictions are, so far, mostly peripheral confirmations of trends unwinding. And yet, the very picture they paint is one that would be "TOO LATE" to get on board if you wait for the last brushstroke to be filled in. The market events will have none of the usual time elements, because the events are the cessation of certain markets themselves.

They are presenting a picture, not a guarantee. That is why you have to do your own work. And let your own skepticism keep you moving, and looking over your shoulder, as we all do. Perhaps YOU are the one to bring us certain tidbits to confirm or question some parts of the picture. I admit I haven't pursued some of my curiosities with enough diligence.

"OCICBW" is an Internet expression that many include as a reasonable part of collegial discourse. I hear this whispered in much of what FOA brings us, but, I believe he is so excited at the discoveries he is making in the world of international finance, that it would be trite for him to literally include it. He conveys his enthusiasm and excitement to many of us.

It is always a precarious question to learn from another, as opposed to first-hand experience. I did it in college economics, and here I am, back for more. Re-reading the "professor's" text, he may seem more brilliant with each pass, as you understand his point of view better each time. It's hard to say if that makes for "accuracy".

At this stage in life, we should be able to correlate those understandings with our own life experience, but for me -- neophyte in much of this area -- it still rests on : "I like the way these guys' 'THOUGHTS' grow on me, with each re-reading." Whether that qualifies as market forecasting -- hey, I'm a neo except for my experience here! It's the best I have to go on. We'll see, won't we?

And, I believe he is telling us that "if what I'm projecting here does not happen literally as I suggest, then something equally or more immense is afoot, and you would do well to prepare for it." For that, for making me think, I am grateful.


Netking (9/30/01; 19:37:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 62720)
"Don't step in front of Silver on its way up" - Leonard Kaplan
http://www.futuresource.com/news/news.asp?story=i4188783649785511937
"Gold and silver were supported by safe-haven buying right in front of the weekend," Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Ill., noted.

He said he didn't believe news that U.S. special forces had already begun to carry out operations in Afghanistan in an effort to root out terrorist enclaves connected to the Sept. 11 attacks had anything to do with the gains.

He pronounced the move in silver a technical breakout above $4.65 an ounce that ignored somewhat negative technical charts and fundamental factors.

"The market is thin and if the funds get ahold if it and the public could get ahold of it and once it gets going, it could run much higher," he said, noting that buying by commission houses and speculative funds was driving prices
higher.

He added that, after twenty years of playing the market, he had learned not to step in front of silver on its way up and said he was a buyer on the close. . . . "


R Powell (9/30/01; 19:37:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 62719)
Netking
Now, if we could only convince the auto makers to offer their cash-back deals in the form of gold and silver coins. I've always thought everyone sees the world from a unique perspective, maybe the trick is to change the general perception of everyone's outlook so that gold and silver are viewed in a more favorable light. Coin-back offers might help.
Greed (that which all are innately endowed with a full sufficiency at birth) and fear are two emotions that constantly alter the unique perception everyone has. Greed will cause some to want to possess gold. Fear will motivate others. The current investment atmosphere appears to have both. Take your pick. Personally, I'm motivated mostly by greed for more and fear of want.
Another FOMC meeting Tuesday, can the buck withstand another rate cut???
Rich


AllanC (9/30/01; 18:51:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 62718)
*****The world today is a different place than it was 9/10/01*****
False

The US and the west have for so long dominated and manipulated the world's resources to satisfy their selfish ends. The IMF forbids the backing of any nation's currency with anything save the US dollar. Because of this IMF policy, the US and the oil consuming west benefits at the expense of resource and labor rich countries who have to compete with each other to sell their products and resources "on the cheap" for our "paper chits".

We import a lot of the world's best brains because of this "illusion of plenty" and this brain drain further benefits us. Our financial system benefits because of the depth and liquidity of our markets. After all, the US has control of the world's reserve currency.

We live a life of luxury using products sold to us for the "paper promises" of a massive US trade deficit. We drive around in gas guzzling SUV's consuming more than our fair share of the world's oil while most of the world's population slaves for us at $5 per day and can't afford a motorcycle let alone the gas needed to power it.

We look after our own interests first, and among them are cheap oil. That's what keeps the present US dollar system going. We do not want anyone from the third world to rock the boat. We do everything in our power to prevent this.

And we wonder why this WTC tragedy happened. And we want revenge.

No the world has not changed since then, but it might well evolve in a different direction based on our perception of how the world sees us.


Netking (9/30/01; 18:43:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 62717)
Perception to gold changing . . .
A goldbug called 'The Beeger' commented; "Just saw a TV ad for Pizza Hut that said "Cash, credit, or Gold". The perception is a changing!"

Netking > Is this something y'all have seen happening more in recent times, or some Pizza makers just being innovative?


Interstate (9/30/01; 18:37:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 62716)
Another/FOA
I am an occasional lurker and poster and I cannot figure out why A/FOA are so revered. Could someone explain? I have read MOST of The Trail postings and I don't understand their standing on this forum. I do not intend to be rude or inconsiderate or offend anyone. I would just like to know. Thank you.

Mr Gresham (9/30/01; 17:41:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 62715)
M1
http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-perl/bbs.pl?read=186921
How'd dey do dat?

Steve H -- We have been at this so long, that I think we have projected them as having more layers of control over gold as the inflation indicator than they really do. (Didn't FOA say that the Dollar pushers were even themselves surprised at their success at keeping its value after massive printing, due to the uptake from world trade and currency exchange?)

They have just lost one or two of their degrees of freedom in suppressing gold price discovery, and expended more of their arrows that have worked in the past, to lesser result.

It may turn out to be just a simple two-variable model: investor demand (now armed with fresh-printed moolah and remnants bailed out of mutual funds) and abandonment of the paper POG market. The variable they used most effectively: TIME, with which they wore us down (and mowed down the ranks of paper buyers). The day before that variable, TIME, hits zero, looks just like any prior day. Controllable POG range, "no inflation here, folks". Next day: moonshot. Sorry, no more tickets available...


Mr Gresham (9/30/01; 17:24:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 62714)
Fed buys stocks...
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=16432602
Some thoughts from a poster at Silicon Investor at link above...

G: I've always carried with me this multi-sided hydraulic model of the Fed & others patching up the economic roller-coaster machine with various devices, both psychological and liquidity-based, but here we have a recent case. (It could use more fleshing out, but maybe in weeks ahead?)

And it seems they are balancing it perfectly as it careens downhill, not letting one little bolt go awry, until the entire machine crashes into a wall at the bottom. The Maestro's Triumph of Econometric Modeling...

Also building up a Ninth Ninth Wave ahead for gold, which is left as the only already-known player standing after such a fiat game ends. No wonder the Euro-makers have had to play their entry so very carefully, and not be swamped themselves in the wake of the sinking USD.


SteveH (9/30/01; 17:18:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 62713)
*****The world today is a different place than it was 9/10/01*****
Usul quoted, "...Increasing gold prices are considered an important indicator of inflationary pressures, and an indication of loss of confidence in paper money and stocks. By corollary, a loss of confidence in paper will lead to a growth in interest in the ultimate store of value, which is gold...."

Comment:

In a market in which gold is heavily shorted and "manipulated" does the lack of increase of gold prices -- due to the above -- tell us something of 1) the manipulators and 2) of the act of manipulations, specifically, the underlying reason for the manipulation? It would seem that the above act of manipulation can have but one outcome: when the dam breaks equilibrium will be found quickly. CB gold is much like an overflow tank in a hydraulic system or closed loop system that requires a source of liquid in order to keep the system sound. It is time to fill the overflow tank now, but the source of fluid is all but dried up and the overflow tank is about dry too.

In short, the act of manipulation or of shorting gold, especially with paper and not physical gold, is in itself a temperature gauge as to the closeness of the eventual rise in gold prices and as to the degree of adjustment. In proportion to the amount of manipulation (and there would appear to be more than in any known period of history) and degree of depletion of official reserves, the greater and more violent the eventual price adjustment.

Further, the closer this unavoidable event becomes the greater the manipulation and desperation of those in charge of the manipulation. The US political landscape was ill suited to stave off or prevent this type of market phenomenon because the act of electing leadership every four to eight years defers to the short term plan and not the long term necessity. As such we find ourselves at a time when history shall make an adjustment in the value of gold and all currencies tied to it (whether anyone wants to admit that tie-in or not).

It is not coincidental in the least this convergence of events that has hit the heart of the US financial district and not even ironically buried the very overflow tank of the discovery market for gold and silver. Kinetic inflation and potential inflation are not the same now. Potential inflation or its measure (the degree of manipulation, including the willful destruction of the overflow tank) is at a peak, as reflected by the Dow to gold ounce price charts we have often seen or been privy to. Kinetic inflation is soon upon us -- made worse by those who sought short term political gain and those who sought the destruction of a way of life, so dear to many of us.

So, to address the above first paragraph quote. A rising gold price is a reflection of kinetic inflation. Rising and ridiculous levels of gold and silver market manipulation are a reflection of the build up or potential inflation about to be unleashed. The DOW-Gold chart is already adjusting itself at a very rapid pace. Either gold rises to $4500 to $8500 within a year or two, probably sooner, or the Dow falls to 600. If the DOW is not allowed to fall to meet gold then gold will simply have to rise to meet wherever the DOW may find itself. It appears unavoidable.


Humble Pie (9/30/01; 16:56:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 62712)
*****The world today is a different place than it was 9/10/01*****
FALSE The world is the same ,but our perception of everything has changed or been altered a great deal.We have gone from a spend yourself into prosperity mind set to a survival mind set ,a hunker down mode if you will.50+ years of DOLLAR HEGEMONY has brought all this to a head and where it's going to lead us only The Almighty knows.We have unparalled prosperity in this country at the expence of the rest of the world where Despair and Poverty looms for many . Is it any wonder that the event of 9/11 took place ,if not at the WTC then somewhere else,the pressure cooker had to blow somewhere. The fiancial markets have been in a down mode since April of 2000 with a few rallys here and there.The readers at the USA Gold fourm have had a blueprint of this carnage in the fiancial markets ,thanks to ANOTHER/FOA writings on this fourm.To be more specific Another stated in very clear and unequivical terms that ALL PAPER would BURN. How many of us really beleived that statement.If we could only go back and liquidate all the trash we held onto and put that money in GOLD coins. Gold did just what it was supposed to do in that time frame ,protect your capital.I'm glad I have some in Gold,but you never have enough of a good thing.On a lighter note Geo. Burns once said "that having sex at 90 is like shooting pool with a rope" ,well Allan Greenspan'9 interest rate cuts looks like they are pushing on a string.It's not working.Gold is by far the only way to go with all the turmoil in the world today.

Mr Gresham (9/30/01; 16:27:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 62711)
Prospector
http://www.thebulliondesk.com/Reports/prospector.htm
Kaplan's interesting lately, and this one has him peering anxiously ahead:
"It will be strictly and solely the investor in this market, and not the producers nor the users, who will determine the value in the next few months. ...

"Lease rates in gold remain low, which would generally belie those reports of high demand for gold worldwide. However, please be advised that while it is true that gold is being bought, in size, by investors globally, it is not being bought as physicals. Investors are rightfully buying futures, options, or other derivatives and not a great deal of physical product for delivery. This is leaving the physical market well supplied and lease rates very low. We may be entering a time period where just a quick notation of the lease rate picture will cease to be a reliable indicator of the future of the gold price. Please take this into consideration in all your trading decisions. "

Oh, to be an "expert"!





Mr Gresham (9/30/01; 16:14:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 62710)
mannfm11 fans
http://www.prudentbear.com/boards/user/non-frames/message.asp?forumid=4&messageid=75655&threadid=75651
Here he is today, on how the Credit/Money Bubble was built, and how the dominoes tumble... The bro' is cookin'...

"People don't put their money in banks and the banks lend it out. That is a childs fable we believe. Instead banks create credit and we put it in the banks. Banks hate cash because they have to liquidate their base assets to provide cash ..."

His prose really launches forward forcefully from his keyboard -- it ain't Joyce, and it ain't Hemingway, for sure. But somebody with a lot to say, from his combination of experience, and thought.

Kind of like Oro, eh? Someone head and shoulders above the everyday blather. Without the Net, would we have ever encountered such as these...?


annie (9/30/01; 16:05:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 62709)
My Posting Entry
****The World Is a Different Place Today Than It was 9/10/01 ****

True.

For days now I have been wrestling with whether I wanted to take the "True" or "False" side of this debate. To many people it was as if the attack came out of nowhere. America was safe and prosperous on one day—then beset with dangers the next. I had grown up under the threat of atomic war and the "Red Scare". I reached adulthood during the Viet Nam War. I saw years of the "Cold War". And I always knew in my heart the world was a dangerous place.

That is why I purchased a modest amount of gold as soon as it was re-legalized for American citizens. Close friends and family—those who knew of my little "nest-egg"—tried to respect my decision to hold a "failed investment." But I never agonized over the ups and downs in the price because I always knew that it offered me and my loved ones a type of security that nothing else could. Gold gave me courage in the face of the worldwide uncertainty that I saw as ever present.

But. Even though the world was always a dangerous place and the attack only exemplified that, I have chosen to write my essay on the side of change precipitated by the attack. And a major role was played by two of the victims: Todd Beamer and Jeremy Glick. I'm sure everyone is familiar with the story by now, but I just want to tell it again--in my own words.

Jeremy Glick's wife received a phone call from her husband, who was on Flight 93. He told her of the hijacking and of his love for her. She told him of the two planes being used in the attack on the World Trade Center Towers. During the 30-minute conversation, her father was able to contact the FBI and they were able to monitor the last of the phone call. He told his wife that there were some on the plane who had a plan. "We are all going to die," he said. "But we're going to do something about it." It was about then that the phone went dead. But the last words heard were those of Todd Beamer: "Let's roll!"

*****

Although our nation has been accused of being something of an international bully, our citizens themselves have been trained to passivity. We have been told in case of a robbery not to resist. In cases where citizens have resisted, many were put on trial and a few found guilty of using excessive force. Property is not worth the taking of a human life. The right to own guns and other means of self defense has been under attack for years. Surely, one of the reasons that foreign tourists in Miami became prey of criminals was that they were known to be unarmed—after all, they had just come into the US via international flights. But the mainstream media never mentioned this. The unwritten, unspoken rule of the media has been to do nothing that would discourage the passivity of the American people. In all ways, the citizens have been conditioned to follow—passively.

Slowly, over several generations, we have been taught to ignore the wrongs we see and to isolate ourselves from the doings of the establishment. When the American people have become aware of wrong doings—usually by means other than the mainstream media--they have been treated like naughty children--children who just didn't understand the real world. So what if the president had an affair with a very young woman—an intern. The undercurrent was familiar: They all do it and it's none of your business. Your interest in it shows your own wicked curiosity. WE, the adults in America, scold you for being so immature—so ignorant of the ways of our world. And for the most part, we passively accepted it.

National pride of citizens of other countries was seen as honest and pure—but of Americans was seen as elitist. A spirit of nationalism was discouraged in our schools in favor of "multi-culturalism". Nationalism was placed in virtually the same category as racism, and those who wanted to limit immigration were accused as being hateful toward one group or another. It was made so "dangerous" to be against the open immigration policy, that again, people chose passivity.

And. There still remains a remnant of the hatred for America that was spawned by the Viet Nam era—a self-hatred by our own citizens. I have seen opinions expressed that whatever is done to America is the result of our own perverted foreign policy decisions. I, myself, have disagreed with many as being "interventionist". But the time for second guessing our foreign policy, the time for expression of our self-hatred as Americans is past. We are regaining a patriotism--even though tainted by some who would sacrifice freedom for "security". I for one welcome the patriotism, but highly distrust any sacrifice of freedom.

*****

One reason we gold bugs have felt somewhat isolated from our fellow citizens is that we are open to ideas that most Americans don't even want to think about, much less actively consider. These are referred to collectively as "conspiracy theories". The first one that I remember was the Kennedy Assassination: We were assured that Oswald was a "lone gunman". The highly esteemed Warren Commission confirmed this for us.

Then there was Waco. In the days before the attack on the compound housing the Branch Davidians in Waco, we were plied (meaning manipulated) with stories of how David Koresh was a child molestor and how dangerous his group was, with their stockpiles of weapons and kooky ideas. Well. I guess we put an end to that, all right!

We question what really happened in Oklahoma City. Some of us have seen the tape showing early coverage of the Oklahoma City bombing, indicating that there was more than one explosion; and experts saying that there would have to have been more bombs inside the parking garage. We heard rumors of ATF employees not showing up for work. And we wondered why the "crime scene" (that cannot even be photographed by citizens in the WTC bombings) was so quickly bulldozed. But committees and subcommittees have assured us that Tim McVay acted virtually alone.

Vince Foster's "suicide" was never proven to us. The first witness on the scene was banned from telling his story for months. By the time he reported the inconsistencies at the scene, nobody was really interested—the media, least of all. Where are Woodward and Bernstein when you really need them?

And our own special "Gold Bug Conspiracy Theory": How could we have an enormous trade deficit year after year and still be able to maintain a "strong dollar"? And even more amazing: How can the dollar continue to strengthen year after year in its relationship with gold?. Some of us have referred to the American people as "sheeple" because they have passively followed our leaders, practically deifying Alan Greenspan and Company. But Gold Bugs are different. Most of us bugs are independent in spirit; many of us are full-fledged survivalists. None of us are passive. We were the last frontier for the propagandists. And the Forums were the thorn in their flesh.

*****

I remember in high school learning the Dylan Thomas quote: "Do not go gentle into that good night". I will never forget the way it was explained to us as students: "You will hear it quoted as ‘Do not go gently…’ because people assume that it should be an adverb describing the verb ‘go’". But it is actually an adjective describing the understood subject of the sentence: "you".

I think that the same idea, in modern terms, might be expressed as "Don't be passive in the face of death."

This is where I come back to the actions taken by Jeremy Glick and Todd Beamer. They chose to "not go gentle", and they set an example for the rest of us as well. Because of them, those of us who frequent such sites as this are not quite so isolated from the general public as we were before. Others are starting to stir and realize that their survival and that of their loved ones may depend on actions that they must take now. That the "strong dollar" may not be invincible and our unprecedented prosperity may not last forever. And that our government cannot be relied upon to take care of us in all situations.

The American people have the choice to "not go gentle" into the future. They have been stirred from their slumber—the sleep induced by the longest run of prosperity in our history. It is time for them to wake to the dangers in the world. And now I would say to all of them, for they are now listening: "DO NOT GO GENTLE: BUY GOLD"

Okay, you gold bugs. Let's roll!

End of essay.

Thanks for the opportunity. annie


wolf (9/30/01; 16:00:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 62708)
Spin Masters
Near all on this Forum believe in the gold price manipulation and see thru the spin of the politics and the mainstream medias.
Why should we believe all the spin about the "terrorists" and the WTC we get from the same people.
Who benefits - we shall see in short time - and you find the enemy, probably within the USA.-
Poor souls who have to fight for the big boys and get the hot potato out of the fire, for others still in the dark.-


Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD (9/30/01; 15:46:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 62707)
Hard assets... Easy access!
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html

sovereigns
Gold Sovereigns Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In this global marketplace, a single event on the far side of the world can suddenly and adversely affect the performance-credibility value of the commercial positions within your investment portfolio.

Gold has no employees, no overhead, and no financial statement to balance. It cannot go bankrupt. Gold is wealth itself.It is valued worldwide on the basis of its uniquely reliable form and function -- a steadfast financial commodity which is immune to the contagious collapses to which all financial paper is prone.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?



Rockgrabber (9/30/01; 15:06:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 62706)
Beer Man Good Thinking
I wondered if the tree would crush the glass and transport the gold through itself. (That is the kinda things that happens to me.

Beer Man (9/30/01; 13:30:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 62705)
GOLD TREE
CANUCK-$$$$-I live in a deep forest--I do like the way you think---do you think that xtra conductivity will draw lightning--\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\@$$tree

Netking (9/30/01; 13:30:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 62704)
Simply Me - Saudi Arabia
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010930/wl/attack_saudi_bases_dc_5.html
Lady Simply Me(Golden Granny)Your post #62636(debka)may have been too soon maybe? . . . . this story through from Reuters (Sunday 1:23 PM ET) with regards to the Saudi's & there on again, off again offers of bases for the U.S.-led coalition. I understand there are different Saudi bases, however the U.S. want the new 'state of the art' one with all the extra intel that would give them against the Saudi's Muslim neighbours. At the end of the day, what is the truth, it appears to change real quick yes
- Netking
-----------------------------------------------------------
" . . . Saudi Arabia pledged Sunday to support a U.S.-led coalition against ``terrorism,'' but insisted it would not allow foreign forces to launch attacks against fellow Muslim Afghanistan (news - web sites) from its territory.

``This is out of the question and no one has discussed anything of this sort with it (Saudi Arabia),'' Interior Minister Prince Nayef told a news conference.

He did not rule out the possibility that Saudi Arabia might allow America to use its airspace or territorial waters for some other purpose in the upcoming campaign. . . . "


tedw (9/30/01; 13:16:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 62703)
The terrorists
http://www.usagold.com

The terrorists want war. They dont,however, just want war between themselves and the western powers; they want war between all of the west and Islam.

That being the case, I would expect to see attacks resume against Isreal, and soon.And when they do Lebanon, Iran, Syria, and Iraq will do nothing since they view these terrorists as freedom fighters.

This is the golden opportunity for the terrorists to plunge the middle east into war, and that is what they want.



tedw (9/30/01; 13:10:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 62702)
Indian ex duty premiums
http://www.usagold.com
Can someone translate the following into English with a proper explanation:


Indian ex duty premiums: A.M. $1.21, P.M. $2.91
with world spot at 291 and $289.50. Too low for legal imports.



Beer Man (9/30/01; 13:06:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 62701)
ELK
I would give a small bit of gold to go, I need to wait till mid- nov. for wt. tail in the mid west. In Colo. I went I saw but never got a good shot -- I did have fun & clear the head. Hope you put some in the freezer. What do you use to take them? Good luck from the BEER MAN!!!!

Black Blade (9/30/01; 11:46:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 62700)
Exchange Stabilization Fund
http://www.ny.frb.org/pihome/fedpoint/fed14.html

A nice Sunday read. I am off for a couple of days. I shall sally forth and slay an elk (I hope). Cheers!

- Black Blade


Hipplebeck (09/30/01; 11:40:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 62699)
****The World Is a Different Place Today Than It Was 9/10/01****
http://education.jlab.org/itselemental/ele079.html
True
But then the world is a different place every day isn't it?
We humans live in a constant state of change, ironically that is the one thing that does not change.
Throughout time people have tried very hard to build a concept of stability that protects them
from this scary reality. We build institutions and monuments out of limestone and granite to give the illusion of permanence. We trust in the belief that our God is eternal and does not change.
We even deceive ourselves into believing that we are the same entity that we were as a little baby when it is obvious we are not. In our desire to build up a concept of stability so that we can have some bearings on what life is all about, we must acquire for ourselves those things we observe that offer those qualities.
That is why man has chosen gold as the stabilizing foundation for the concept of money. It endures. It has physical weight that one can directly feel. It doesn't waste away. It is rare and desirable, infinitely divisible and permanently beautiful. It takes effort to retrieve it from the earth. Nothing else serves this purpose as well as gold. We all know instinctively that gold will still be here when our paper dreams are not. Isn't that why we call it treasure?


USAGOLD (9/30/01; 09:44:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 62698)
REMINDER: Posting Contest Ends Midnight Tonight
CALL TO CONTEST!! CALL TO CONTEST!! CALL TO CONTEST!!
Knights and Ladies:

A POSTING CONTEST CALLING ON YOUR MOST REFINED SKILLS
(And I'll bet you think I've forgotten how much fun these
contests can be. . . .)

We have endured much over the past several weeks, and we have not
had a contest in a very long time -- two good reasons for a
little diversion, or maybe that's the wrong word. For what this
contest demands of its participants is some "soul" searching. . .
some "political economy" searching. . . some "belief" searching.
As such, many will not think it relaxation, but a call on our
greatest skills in erudition and posting. This, it no doubt will
be. There are those who might think this is not the time for a
contest, but I would say there could not be a better time. As we
reach into the depth of our own souls perhaps we can help our
fellow goldmeisters, our friends and associates.

The statement brought to this Table Round is as simple as it is
direct, and to start each post it must be answered "True" or
"False". All else follows.

The statement is this:

The world today is a different place today than it was 9/10/01.

TRUE or FALSE.

Each entry must bring the discussion around to gold (naturally)
and must be at least 50 words in length, though you can post as
much as you wish. One link in the customary place to illustrate
is both encouraged and allowed.

Each entry must be marked in the subject box as:

****The World Is a Different Place Today Than It was 9/10/01 ****
(Surrounded by stars)

Ignore gold and disqualify your entry.

The winner will receive a pre-1933 gold British sovereign from
the Royal USAGOLD TREASURY. The runners-up will receive each a
one-tenth ounce gold U.S. Eagle -- two will be awarded.

Each first-time poster --either in the price guessing contest or
the posting contest -- will receive a U.S. Silver Eagle. If you
are a first time poster, you must e-mail the
sitemaster@usagold.com notice that you are such. Please do not
try to slip one by us, each claim will be checked. We very much
encourage our lurkers to take this as an opportunity to
participate in the discussion. Silver has motivated many of our
best posters to post the first time. May it motivate you.

(Marie, to the vaults! Make ready the coin! Count up our stacks!
The Contest is About to Begin. . . . .)

The posting contest will go from this moment until Sunday,
September 30, 2001 midnight mountain time.

Only one entry per category per contestant.

I wish you all well, my friends, and good luck.

May the best poster win.


Grubstaker (9/30/01; 07:52:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 62697)
the point of no return...



26 September 2001

In a statement, publicized through the al-Jazeera Arab news network, terrorist leader Osama Bin Laden said that he
would support the orphans of those Pakistanis who were killed by Pakistani police during anti-American protests in
Karachi. Bin Laden wrote that he asks Allah "to accept them as martyrs and to join them with the prophets, the
caliphs and the martyrs and those of goodwill…" However, Bin Laden is not satisfied with only their deaths, rather
"[w]e hope that these brothers will be the first martyrs in the battle of Islam in this era against the new [infidel]
Jewish and Christian crusader campaign that is led by the Chief Crusader Bush under the banner of the cross."

According to the terrorist leader, individual martyrdom is still just a start. He expects "the Muslim nation in Pakistan
[to] die defending Islam…" In order to prevent his demise or arrest, Bin Laden calls on all of Pakistan, which he says
is "on the front line," to be willing to emulate the Afghani Mujahadeen of twenty years ago, who were "defending
[Afghanistan] and Pakistan during the Russian invasion…" He insists that "our Muslim brothers in Pakistan… use all
their means to resist the invasion of the American crusader forces in Pakistan and Afghanistan."

"If Allah allows you to win, there will be no defeat; if he chooses that you
will be defeated, nothing will allow you to win; therefore, depend on Allah," Bin Laden advised. Removing any doubt
as to who he sees as representing authentic dependency on the will of Allah, Bin Laden wrote that he and his cadres
are "steadfast in the way of jihad… under the leadership of our prince, the warrior Mullah Mohammed Omar [leader
of the Taliban]."

<SNIP>...watch for more than one front to erupt once the fireworks begin...there is absolutely no reasoning in this (insane) situation...truly a catch 22 ..


Usul (9/30/01; 07:49:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 62696)
****The World Is a Different Place Today Than It was 9/10/01 ****
http://www.cross-currents.net/charts.htm
FALSE

The world may indeed appear to be a different place today,
but what has really changed is not the world but the
perceptions and behaviours of its people. People haven't
changed, as a study of the writings of ancient
civilisations will show:

"The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be
refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of
officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the
assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed less Rome
become bankrupt."
- Cicero (106-43 B.C.), 63 BC

He also said, apparently, "You must look out in Britain
that you are not cheated by the Charioteers"- I guess you
have to substitute for the word "Charioteers", otherwise
little has changed.

Something has nevertheless changed, and it means that
future historians may very well date the beginning of the
next Depression from the terrorist attack on the United
States, even though the stock markets began to roll over in
Spring 2000. However, this bear market has begun, not with
a terrifying Wall Street crash, but with stealth and hopes
for a "V" bottom and a quick recovery. Why has the ongoing
bear market failed to register with many people with the
seriousness it deserves? It can be summed up in one word,
confidence.

Back in the 1920s, people were supremely confident, until
their illusions of permanent wealth and prosperity were
shattered in October 1929.

Herbert Hoover's 1928 campaign promised
"A chicken in every pot and a car in every garage."
The spirit of confidence was expressed by Irving Fisher
(Yale University economist) who said:
"The nation is marching along a permanently high plateau of
prosperity."
People were confident in the economy, confident in Hoover's
governance, and confident in the stock market as an
indicator of the strength of the economy and a source of
profits.

But eventually, between Black Thursday (October 24) and
Black Tuesday (October 29), the Wall Street Crash knocked
out that confidence. Hoover lost the people's confidence
in him, and lost the presidency in 1932 to Franklin D.
Roosevelt. Loss of confidence contributed hugely to the
banks' problems; no longer confident, people rushed to take
cash out of the banks and by 1933, around 11,000 of
America's circa 25,000 banks had failed.

Alan Greenspan noted in the July 1966 issue of The
Objectivist:

"The excess credit which the Fed pumped into the economy
spilled over into the stock market -- triggering a
fantastic speculative boom.
Belatedly, Federal Reserve officials attempted to sop up
the excess reserves and finally succeeded in braking the
boom. But it was too late: by 1929 the speculative
imbalances had become so overwhelming that the
attempt precipitated a sharp retrenching and a consequent
demoralizing of business confidence. As a result, the
American economy collapsed...
The world economies plunged into the Great Depression of
the 1930s."

A long economic cycle links today with the 1920s and 1930s-
this is best illustrated by perusal of the charts presented
by Alan M. Newman, editor of H. D. Brous &
Co's "Crosscurrents"- particularly "Dollar Trading Volume" (link).

Since 1995, there has been a runaway bull market in stocks
centred on Wall Street. Easy money- the plentiful supply
of easily obtained credit, and the FED's willingness to
lower interest rates at the slightest provocation, has been
fuel for the growth of a speculative mania built on easy
debt rather than savings, in a similar fashion to the
excess credit of the 1920s, and the resulting debt burden
and the desire to rebuild savings will keep the bear market
going for longer than most people suspect.

In the 1930s, people compensated for their feelings of
insecurity and loss of confidence through the escapism of
radio and movie musical entertainments. As people turned
to the radio, the sale of physical records suffered as
people could listen to music without paying for every
record. Today, people can download their music of choice
without restriction to a playlist or timetable. The growth
of the internet has closely followed the recent bull
market, as the growth of Microsoft mirrored the growth of
RCA in the 1920s.

In 1932, Bing Crosby sang this poignant verse:

"Once I built a tower, up to the sun,
brick and rivet and lime.
Once I built a tower, now it's done --
Brother, can you spare a dime?"

Since the attack on the World Trade Center, thousands have
been laid off, particularly from the air transport
industry, which in the 1990s had been growing steadily.
Just as in the 1930s, as illustrated by Crosby's song, the
people who helped build up that industry have now been let
down:

"Once I built a railroad, I made it run,
Made it race against time.
Once I built a railroad, now it's done --
Brother, can you spare a dime?"

The sudden shock of the WTC disaster and the forthcoming
uncertainties of the War on Terrorism (just as the Iraqi
invasion of Kuwait of August 2, 1990 and the ensuing spike
in oil prices gave a sudden shock to the confidence of
American consumers), will dampen spending and push the
economies of the Western world further in the direction of
recession. But we have been promised anything but a quick
end to the uncertainties of the War on Terrorism.

Consumers have now become fearful of flying and are
reluctant to go shopping for anything that might be
considered discretionary, as jobs cuts spread from aviation
through to dependent industries. The University of
Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 81.8 in
September, the worst drop in confidence for 11 years.

With an atrocity on their home ground unseen in the 20th or
21st centuries, people in America, and many other countries
whose people worked in the WTC and will be involved in the
War on Terrorism, have suffered a shock to their confidence
in their safety from threats of further terrorism, chemical
and biological attacks included.

Many people have been touched by a tragedy far beyond those
who lost their lives on September 11th. There are close
relatives, friends, business associates, customers... of
those people, and also of those who have lost jobs in the
following loss of confidence in air travel.

Yet despite the widespread perception that "the world has
changed" since September 11th, the truth is that the
retrenchment of the stock markets had already been in
progress, and confidence had already begun to be lost. On
September 3rd, the director of the UK's Confederation of
British Industry, Digby Jones, said:

"Clearly the economic slowdown facing the UK is now
spreading beyond the internationally exposed sectors
typified in UK manufacturing."

And on August 28th, it was reported that:
"U.S. consumer confidence fell unexpectedly to its lowest
level in four months in August as a weakening job market
weighed on consumers and threatened to undermine
retail spending".

East Asia's loss of confidence led the West's, in the wake
of the Asian financial crisis- as was illustrated by these
headlines:

Business confidence drops due to Asian Crisis - December 1997
Hong Kong's lost confidence - January 1998
Crisis of confidence despite rally - January 1998
Japan economy stalls as confidence wanes- - MOF head - January 1998
Asia leads to crisis of confidence - January 1998

We can clearly see the effects of lost confidence in
Japan's Nikkei, still falling from its high in late 1989.

Here are a few more things for people to be uncertain about now:

Will deficit spending and skyrocketing money supply after
September 11th set fire to inflation?
Will conflict in the Middle East cut off oil supplies,
sending energy prices soaring?
Will the financial infrastructure survive the loss of the
companies in the WTC?
Will deliveries and just-in-time business models disrupted
by grounded transportation cause shortages and price
inflation?

A strong economy depends for its continued health not just
on the availability of finances, but also the confidence
of people that their money is safe in the bank,
and the confidence of trading counterparties that payments
due will be honoured. Without confidence, people are
inclined to withdraw their money from anything that may be
perceived as risky. Early to go are the high-risk
investments (junk bonds). Financiers are less inclined
to lend to business ventures; funding for new business
development dries up. Businesses let people go. The
economy slows, and the willingness of the high street
consumer to spend is sapped by their awareness of
industries suffering and other people losing jobs.

Consumer confidence may well have peaked in January 2000 -
"Consumer Confidence Is Highest Ever" said the press.
Consumers had no fears about the valuations of the stock
market and demonstrated their confidence in profligate
levels of spending while savings hit an all time low.

In a speech by Paul A. Volcker, on January 27th, 2000,
he said:

"A world of convertible paper currencies, a world that has
long since abandoned the discipline of gold, and a world in
which money can move so freely, necessarily requires high
confidence in its basic monetary institutions"

By Spring 2000, however, most of the stock market indices
in the West had seen tops that have not since been bested.
The technology-laden Nasdaq index began to fall heavily in
April 2000, as confidence began to be lost in the earnings
potential of high technology companies. Until the WTC
tragedy, it was generally hoped that the loss of confidence
was confined to the speculative high technology area.

The masters of banking systems try to maintain confidence
by maintaining liquidity, but confidence itself is more
fundamental. If people have lost confidence, no amount of
urging them to borrow and spend will work. If they
perceive a high risk of redundancy, a threat to their
sources of income, they will want to keep as much of their
personal wealth in reserve as possible, no matter how low
interest rates are lowered.

MIT economics professor Paul Krugman said in May 1998:

"... if people have low expectations about their future
incomes, then even with a zero interest rate they may want
to save more than the economy can absorb... And in that
case, no matter what the central bank does with the current
money supply, it cannot reflate the economy sufficiently to
restore full employment..."

Efforts need to be made to encourage investment in
businesses that have a sound plan, proper control over
spending and debt, not businesses that promise the earth on
sketchy concepts, only to suck in large amounts of
financing and waste it on frivolous purchases and
ineffective business models. And this will not be achieved
simply by making it easy for businesses to obtain funding.
There needs to be a weeding out of the unsound businesses,
bad debts, and establishment of financial stability
and sound control of credit. And nothing encourages
financial stability and sound control of credit better than
an economy firmly linked to gold.

When on May 1st 1821 the Gold Standard, with a fixed price
for gold, was formally established in Great Britain, there
followed a long period of price stability with monetary
policy, in effect, on auto-pilot.

As George Soros pointed out in December 1997,
without a currency fixed in some way- to a relatively
stable currency, or gold, the currency of a heavily
indebted nation can depreciate in a self-reinforcing
process, because this aggravates the problems of repaying
the external debt and further undermines confidence. And
not even Soros could say how far that process would
move away from equilibrium. When a currency depreciates,
the value of an investment denominated in that currency
falls, and the currency buys less goods from abroad.
Of course, wealth held in gold instead of depreciating
currency would be preserved.

Increasing gold prices are considered an important
indicator of inflationary pressures, and an indication of
loss of confidence in paper money and stocks.
By corollary, a loss of confidence in paper will lead to a
growth in interest in the ultimate store of value, which is
gold.

As Adrienne Roberts of the Financial Times pointed out on
September 29th, "Gold has risen 7 per cent since the attack
on the US while oil and base metals have fallen.
Gold has also outperformed equities, illustrating its
negative correlation with most other asset classes"

President Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard in
1971. The US national debt subsequently began to grow
exponentially (a graph may be perused in the U.S. National
Debt Clock FAQ), until today it exceeds $5 Trillion, a
colossal debt.

How does gold give us confidence? Let me quote the French
central bank governor Jean-Claude Trichet, who said in an
interview with Central Banking magazine in February 1998:

"Gold is a very important element in the credibility of the
currency in the eyes of our people. It is one of the
elements on which confidence in the currency is based,
particularly in the eyes of public opinion. It is often
viewed as the ultimate reference asset."

Here's another quote, from Peter L. Bernstein in September
2000:

"And because gold is chemically inert, it doesn't ever
tarnish, it gives people a sense of being in touch
with eternity. I think this is the magic of it. It stands
for security and assurance"

And another, from Alan Greenspan in May 1999:

"Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the
world. Fiat money in extremis is accepted by nobody.
Gold is always accepted."

Gold, therefore, is clearly excellent compensation for loss
of confidence in the paper economy.

One of the greatest gold fields of modern times, the Rand,
began with the discovery of the aptly named "Confidence
Reef" on the land of a Dutch farmer, about twelve miles
west of Johannesburg.

Gold is no-one's debt; the only financial asset that is not
a liability on someone else's balance sheet.
Its value derives ultimately from the labour required to
mine it from the earth- relative to the labour required to
obtain more common substances. Gold buried in the time of
the Roman Empire can be dug up today, after the rise and
fall of several civilisations and their paper currencies,
and it not only holds its bullion value, but also acquires
numismatic or historical artefact premium.

Hold gold, and its value will never collapse like a
speculative dot-com stock.
Hold gold, and its value will endure; even the most highly
regarded companies, (Marconi for example) can fall from a
high profit, cash rich status to a loss-making debt-owing
skeleton by the imprudent decisions of its controllers.


Cavan Man (9/30/01; 07:30:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 62695)
USAGOLD
Mike, what is on your mind?

The Invisible Hand (9/30/01; 03:06:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 62694)
Nostradamus
http://www.sunday-times.co.uk
For those still interested in Nostradamus, an article in the Terrorism section of today's London Sunday Times:
In times of trouble we turn to a fortune teller who never got anything right, says Roland White.


Belgian (9/30/01; 03:03:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 62693)
FOA Question :
Sir FOA, glad and relieved, to hear, y're back, save and sound. Allow me some fundamental questions, please.

The past 6 to 7 years, we experienced, irrational, financial (not economical) exuberance, in parts of the US-markets in particular. Was this anomaly, pré-meditated and did it happen with a well defined puropse (other than ordinarry profit-seeking), through an identifiable coalition of forces ?

What is the true mood of the ruling, global, financial actors on the state of the financial universe ? Is there any indication (wich) that they know we are sinking (financial collapse-desintegration) and keep on pumping ? Or is there still some large amount of "genuine optimism/realism", left ?

What is the most important to the big five (5 1/2) (US/Japan/Europ/China/ME/Russia): The dollar as such or global economic expansion/contraction - survival and continuation ?

In wich *ivory tower*, can we find the best answer ?

Thanks for eventual opinion and indication of where we stand at present in the unfolding-process. Respectfully student.



Black Blade (9/30/01; 01:11:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 62692)
Gold to shatter $300 level
http://m1.mny.co.za/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256AD4004E6C30?OpenDocument&ByLine=Laura+Clancy

Snippit:

Thompson said the likelihood of the gold break-through was a certainty: "I wouldn't be surprised to see it get through $300 - certainly by the end of the year," he said. He also believed demand for gold was mounting, particularly for gold coins and the long-dormant market of Krugerrands. "It's suddenly appeared again [the demand], and we are seeing institutional interest in buying gold, which we haven't seen for a long time. The interest levels are way, way higher than we've seen for some time," he said.

Hedging

Another trigger to gold demand will be the liquidation of gold hedges once gold gets through a certain level: "There's a huge hedge position that's been established over a number of years by most of the major producers, and most of that has a mark to market break-even value of somewhere between $290 for the Australians, $300 to $310 for the South Africans, and somewhat higher for some of the North Americans. But as soon as the gold price goes much higher, it puts pressure on those hedge positions. They, theoretically, go under water," he said.

Black Blade: Then it's "Lights Out" for Hedge Funds Barrick (ABX) and AngloGold (AU).


Black Blade (9/30/01; 00:45:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 62691)
The Taleban's winter ally
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/south_asia/newsid_1567000/1567390.stm

Snippit:

If there is to be American military activity in Afghanistan, it will run into a problem that has always plagued armies there - the winter weather. Afghanistan's ongoing civil war usually stops from November to April.

Black Blade: Very interesting article that outlines the complexities of warfare in Afghanistan. The Mujahadeen beat the mighty Soviets into submission and they fled back to the Soviet Union. Not a promising sign for the US military.


Black Blade (9/30/01; 00:30:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 62690)
Threat to global recovery if Opec cuts output again
http://www.business.scotsman.com/news/headlines_specific.cfm?section=OE&headlineid=18665

Snippit:

LAST week witnessed the steepest drop in oil prices since the Gulf War, but on Friday US oil prices ended on a high note after the Saudi-dominated Opec oil cartel, which remains the world's largest supplier of oil, announced it may cut output in coming weeks.

Black Blade: Defending a minimum price target of $22.00/bbl, "above all circumstances." This Recession will be a long difficult one. Accumulating Gold and Silver is a good move. Once the Talking Heads and Pied Pipers pronounce "Recession" we could see PM prices move higher as certain powers find it impossible to cap the price. Some of these budding Rocket Scientists still refuse to acknowledge that Wall Street indices signal "Bear Market." Hmmm…


Black Blade (9/30/01; 00:17:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 62689)
Venezuela: President Chavez says OPEC must defend oil prices
http://hoovnews.hoovers.com/fp.asp?layout=displaynews&doc_id=NR20010929670.2_0aa500032116d269

Snippit:

President Hugo Chavez insisted [on] Wednesday [26 September] that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) defend oil prices over and above all circumstances and said he was considering calling a presidential meeting of OPEC members. We have to defend our (oil) prices at all costs and if this warrants a presidential OPEC summit I am prepared to call it, Chavez said.

Black Blade: Higher oil prices above all circumstances. The economy runs on "Cheap Energy" and we are in the beginning stages of a severe Recession (possibly total economic collapse). If the terrorists wanted to really cripple the US, all they had to do was take out about a half dozen refineries. The US has not built a new refinery in over a quarter century and due to environmental liabilities it is very unlikely any more will ever be built. The terrorists really missed the boat (or refinery) this time.




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