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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/30/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Black Blade (08/30/01; 23:43:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 60581)
Market Recovery Doubtful Anytime Soon Given Rampant Supply of Bad News
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/010831/spiraling_stocks.html

Snippit:

NEW YORK (AP) -- The stock market hasn't just been falling since last Labor Day -- it's been plunging, so much so that last year's levels suddenly don't seem so bad. When the Nasdaq composite index accelerated its decline shortly after Labor Day and lost 10 percent in September, no one imagined the market would still be tanking a year later. But it is, and the selloffs, which had been confined to technology, have spread to the overall market. As if that weren't enough, the selling frenzy shows no sign of fading. ``I see nothing that tells me we are at the end,'' said Gary Kaltbaum, market technician for Investors' Edge Partners.

More quotes:

The numbers themselves are grim.

``All bets are still off. ... I have to wonder if there is a lot more to go,'' Kaltbaum said.

``There is no light at the end of the tunnel,'' Johnson said.

Black Blade: "Grim" indeed! No good news to be found anywhere in this Recession! Sound familiar? Sleepers everywhere have awakened.

Golden Dreams!


Netking (08/30/01; 23:33:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 60580)
"U.S. Iraq attack to involve ground troops" - Debka Intelligence
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=24283
Snippit:
An imminent U.S. attack against Iraq will not be limited to air strikes and missile barrages but involve ground forces, according to sources quoted by the DEBKA-Net-Weekly intelligence service.

U.S. Marines who trained in desert warfare last month were flown to the region this week, according to the report. The Marines were trained in air landings of men, armor and artillery and in combined ground and air operations. They were told in no uncertain terms they could be called upon to move against Iraqi army forces in eastern Jordan and western Iraq.

Signs in Riyadh, Kuwait, Jerusalem and Cairo point to an imminent U.S. operation. U.S. and Israeli spy satellites and planes flying over central and western Iraq last week found Scud B-1 and Scud-C missile launchers deployed at two Iraqi air bases . . . .

Black Blade (08/30/01; 23:09:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 60579)
Asia In Free Fall
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Hammered again. The leaked IMF draft just adds fuel to the fire. There are still persistent rumors that the BOJ is in the market "Big Time" to prop up the Nikkei, but it appears it is not working. "Interesting Times"

RS (08/30/01; 23:09:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 60578)
@ Solomon Weaver - usagold.com msg#: 60571
Quote:
-------------------------------------------------------
And what about he who has $300,000 in an IRA, owes $300,000 on their home...and has $700 in the bank and $9300 in gold...
-------------------------------------------------------

...that sounds about right for the typical American-
minus the "$9300 in gold", that is.


God bless America-
We've traded her for a bowl of pottage...

When all is said and done, we'll find that the grain is owned by others, and that there is a lien on the bowl.
We will no longer have title to enough land to grow more grain, nor have the manufacturing capacity to make more bowls.

"...the borrower is servant to the lender."
Proverbs 22:7

Black Blade (08/30/01; 23:02:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 60577)
JUST IN! IMF REPORT LEAKED! - IMF warns of a significant danger of global recession
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3BOSJX0RC&live=true&tagid=IXLYK5HZ8CC

Snippit:

Economists at the International Monetary Fund have warned of a "significant danger" of a global recession along the lines of the early 1980s and early 1990s. A leaked draft version of the IMF's World Economic Outlook, obtained by Financial Times Deutschland, predicts the world economy will grow by 2.8 per cent this year but states that there could be "a much deeper and more protracted global downturn". Fresh evidence that the IMF's fears might be realised was released in the US on Thursday, as official figures showed the savings rate jumped to a two-year high in July. The news strengthened fears of a sharp slowdown in the consumer spending that has been the principal support for the US economy this year.

The World Economic Outlook is to be published ahead of the IMF's annual meetings at the end of next month. It may be revised after it is discussed by the IMF's executive directors next week but is unlikely to be substantially changed.

Black Blade: LEAKED DRAFT!!! It will likely be a more severe recession. Very "Grim"


Black Blade (08/30/01; 22:41:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 60576)
Sinking stocks threaten a fragile global economy
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010830/n30306098.html

Snippit:

NEW YORK, Aug 30 (Reuters) - A new wave of selling across world stock markets this week threatens to undermine U.S. consumer confidence and tip a global economy already on the cusp of recession into a prolonged downturn, analysts say. The world's three most powerful economies -- the United States, Japan and Germany -- are all essentially at a standstill. The list of countries that are not growing is long and lengthening. The global economy is taking its cues from the U.S. economy, which is hanging by the thread of consumer spending.

Black Blade: The so-called consumer spending has ended as they see the "Bone Pile" growing and they worry about the continuing losses in their retirement plans. There is no light at the end of this pitch-black tunnel. There is absolutely no positive news to be found anywhere. Pied Pipers and Talking Heads are grasping at nonexistent straws. This recession will be truly ugly. Get free of chains of debt, get very selective on investments, and get PM insurance while it's still cheap. Even the US Government will have to admit at some point that the Budget Surplus is nothing but a stupid myth. There has been no surplus since the early days of Lyndon B. Johnson's reign.

BTW, the missing and destroyed IRS refunds that were contracted to Mellon Bank from the Northeast US could now run into the $Billions! That cash won't be in the economy anytime soon. "Government in-action" - "Interesting."

Golden Dreams All!


BR549 (08/30/01; 22:24:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 60575)
Sen. Grassley & the ESF
turkey hunter (msg#: 60574)—

Senator Grassley is one of my favorites. The following in reference to ESF, I think, is from the NY Fed's WEB site. I did a posing on this earlier.

NY Fed-"ESF accounts and activities are subject to Congressional oversight. Monthly reports on U.S. intervention activities and a monthly financial statement of the ESF are provided to Congress on a confidential basis. This is not usually public information. The New York Federal Reserve Bank makes a publicly available quarterly report to Congress. The manager of foreign operations prepares it.
The ESF was structured to be self-financing. The original Congressional appropriation and retained earnings, which are held in both dollars and foreign currency, are the resources for the Fund. The Gold Reserve Act of 1934 initially funded the ESF with resources resulting from the devaluation of the dollar, in terms of gold. $2 billion of the resulting valuation gain was appropriated by Congress to the ESF. Later, $1.8 billion of that was used to fulfill the initial U.S. quota subscription to the IMF.
Securities issued by foreign governments are what the New York Fed invests ESF foreign currency balances. This is because these instruments yield market-related rates of return and have a high degree of liquidity and credit quality. In addition to interest earned on assets, the ESF's balance sheet includes gains or losses on exchange operations as well as interest earned on assets.
ESF accounts and activities are subject to Congressional oversight. Monthly reports on U.S. intervention activities and a monthly financial statement of the ESF are provided to Congress on a confidential basis. This is not usually public information. The New York Federal Reserve Bank makes a publicly available quarterly report to Congress. It is prepared by the manager of foreign operations."

This info is provided to Congress in a confidential manner and is not publicly available according to my understanding or subject to the "Freedom of Information Act". (Similar to the FOMC meeting notes). I have been unable to find out anything about the "manager of foreign operations" or anything else concerning the specific activities of the NY Fed (via my research) on what they do with gold. I know the the NY Fed works as the agent for the Secretary of the Treasury in conducting foreign swap operations which I assume includes gold.

"Turkey Hunter question; If this is the case can the government do anything they want with the gold without congress knowing anything?"

BR-Yes, I think from what I know that the ESF can and do what it wants and not disclose ots activities to the U.S. citizens, for some reason.

I am glad to know that a great Senator is interested. If you need some additional detail, please let me know and I'll dig out my notes.

Regards,

BR549


turkey hunter (08/30/01; 21:44:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 60574)
questions about the ESF
I got a letter from Sen. Grassley Republican Iowa. They haven't got any info about the gold reclassification but they sent me a history of the ESF.

CRS Report for Congress
The Exchange Stabilization Fund of the U.S. Treasury Department: Purpose, History, and
Legislative Activity
Updated Sept. 20th 1999
by Arlene Wilson

Summary

The ESF was established by Section 20 of the Gold Reserve Act of January 30 1934(48Stat. 337,341) to stabilize the exchange value of the dollar. At the time, The ESF received an appropriation of $2 billion from the revaluation of the U.S. gold holdings. Since then, no money has been appropriated; its income has come largely from interest on
investments and loans, as well as net gains made in transactions in the foreign exchange market. As of late Sept. 1999 the ESF had about $30 billion available to lend.
--------------
Turkey Hunter question; Does this mean that all the gold that was confiscated from the people of the U.S. is in the ESF?
---------------
Some congressional concern has been expressed about the ESF's ability to make foreign loans without congressional approval. Appropriation legislation in the 104th Congress
imposed limitations on the use of the ESF (P.L.104-52, Section632 and P.L. 104-208,Section 628), but the limitations expired at the end of the fiscal year 1997. Seven bills were introduced in the 105th Congress which would have imposed restrictions on the amount of ESF loans, but did not receive floor action. Amendment No. 16 (H.R. 4104) restricting the amount of ESF loans was defeated in a House vote on July 16 1998. In the 106th Congress H. R. 1540 (ESF Transparency and Accountability Act) which would impose limitations on ESF Loans, was introduced on April 22 1999 but has not received floor action.
-------------
Turkey Hunter question; If this is the case can the government do anything they want with the gold without congress knowing anything?





Solomon Weaver (08/30/01; 21:37:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 60573)
NEM is different...then it had been in a bull now it is in a bear.
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=^SPC&d=c&k=c1&c=nem&a=v&p=s&t=my&l=off&z=m&q=l
From 1983 to 1987 NEM made a very rapid run up...so some of 87 action was reasonable correction.....NEM generally outperformed the S&P500 until about 1996.

If this link works....it is a real nice picture of something being fishy in the state of goldmark.

POS

goldquest (08/30/01; 21:29:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 60572)
Gold in The IMF
Is the IMF getting nervous? As far as I know, no one asked but the IMF decided to release their policy on gold on 29 August!
http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/gold.htm

Solomon Weaver (08/30/01; 21:20:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 60571)
Randy....a little fun with your number.
93% of net worth in gold.

If gold goes up 5 times...you will only have 98% of your net worth in gold. So it doesn't really change your portfolio much.

And what about he who has $300,000 in an IRA, owes $300,000 on their home...and has $700 in the bank and $9300 in gold...are they as brave as you, from a NET perspective.

I would put at least 25% of your net worth in being the steward of the site...thanks....

. . . . . .

The other factor is what do you NOT have yourself in that many others do???

Hope you have at least 1% in silver.....

Poor old Solomon

BILLYG (08/30/01; 21:09:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 60570)
Gandalf the White (08/30/01; 20:21:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 60566)
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=xau&close_date=11%2F02%2F87&x=0&y=0
<<<<<<<<<<<<BILLYG -- I think that NEM also had an adjustment due to a STOCKSPLIT during this period !>>>>>>>>

That is posible but I also checked out the following from the chart I have posted.

XAU 150 to 90
ABX 7 to 4
ASA 65 to 42

Its been a long time since gold mining stocks where that high. (low :-) ) Have a golden day, Billy G.



BR549 (08/30/01; 20:44:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 60569)
Adding Permanent Reserves
site steward (msg#: 60556)—

R,

RE: Your last post in ref to the Fed adding permanent reserves.

Aside from retiring debt, does Adding Permanent Reserves mean a contraction of the money supply to reduce inflation? What is the significance? What is the difference for repurchase agreements? Where does this Add Res's type of transaction appear on Fed financial statements, under U.S. government securities bought outright as an asset or other? What is the significance of adding to, rather than subtracting from reserves? i.e., what is the purpose and what does it mean to us?

You may have already answered this but if you did I missed it.

Thanks in advance,

BR549


site steward (08/30/01; 20:42:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 60568)
Belgian this morning touched upon levels of gold diversification
You said in the course of your commentary: ---"This brings us finally to the controversial discussion on the percentage of physical gold in your/mine/our/their possession, today! 5% - 10% - 20%...and this is, as far as the most courageous advocates dare to go."----

Your post prompted me to do an approximate summation of my worldly net worth. Judging from your comments, I guess you would probably call me courageous. The percentage of my net worth which is now safely stored in the form of physical gold (valued at today's market prices) is a very comfortable 93%.

The key word is "comfortable". This large position may seem quite extreme by most people's standards, but it has been built over my productive lifetime as my understanding of the evolving global political and economic situation has provided the prerequisite justification for these levels.

This method of operation is probably not suitable for everybody, but it sure works well for me!

Ninety-three percent!! Such is the pleasant peril of knowing a "thing or two" about gold and money!

R.

Gandalf the White (08/30/01; 20:28:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 60567)
A PICTURE of VOLATILITY !!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=c&k=c4&t=5d
<;-(

Gandalf the White (08/30/01; 20:21:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 60566)
BILLYG (08/30/01; 19:38:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 60563)
BILLYG -- I think that NEM also had an adjustment due to a STOCKSPLIT during this period !
<;-)

Cavan Man (08/30/01; 19:48:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 60565)
White Hills and $400K
If I may...

Invest 40% in AU metal and 10% in a mining company that has proven reserves which are unemcumbered. Eliminate all debt (mortgage optional). Buy 5% AG metal. Keep the balance in a short term treasury MM. If the market does nosedive you'll want to wait and see on the energy equities but definitely do include them in your plans. Store your savings in a private storage facility.

Cavan Man (08/30/01; 19:44:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 60564)
"Parlous" current events
Too bad we are compelled to celebrate such poor economic news. Without a war on gold; in the context of free markets and without political economy; the world would be a better place and I personally wouldn't feel so guilty about cheering on the bad news each day.

BILLYG (08/30/01; 19:38:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 60563)
Do you know
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=nem&close_date=11%2F02%2F87&x=0&y=0
Looking back at stock charts for October of 1987 I looked up NEM (Newmont Mining) and noticed it went from 75 down to 30 in 8 days. If the market cracks in the next few months (days) will the some thing happen this time?

Also I remember one of the big problems with the crash of 1987 was getting though on the phones to your stockbroker. I wonder how long it will take their web sites to over load? Interesting times indeed. I love this stuff. Billy G

Cavan Man (08/30/01; 19:26:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 60562)
The Stranger 60531
The article you reference appeared in today's FT.

Black Blade (08/30/01; 19:14:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 60561)
Investors Pull $1.23 Billion From Funds
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/010830/business_financial_fund_flows_dc_2.html

Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors pulled a net $1.23 billion out of stock mutual funds in July amid a stalled stock market and deteriorating fund performance, new industry figures showed on Thursday.

Black Blade: Just the beginning.


slingshot (08/30/01; 19:07:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 60560)
Auspec Msg# 60559
Roger, Wilco, 10-4, Cabiesh, O-kie Dokie, and Good Night Mrs. Calanbash Wherever You Are.
Slingshot

auspec (08/30/01; 18:55:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 60559)
sector, cb2, slingshot {and anyone else in need of a capital letter}
Sector- per your post #60547:
"With JPMC holding $300,000,000,000 in interest rate derivative VAR )value at risk) the cabal will die before admitting wrong headedness. They have bet half the net worth of the bank on these derivatives because they knew interest rates were linked to the price of gold and since the price of gold was controlled they had a perfect money machine." END
Of course you are looking directly into the heart {bowel in this case} of the beast with this IRD analysis. Can you spend a bit of copy on who the counterparties have been to this stacked deck manipulation? These parties have been chronic losers because of the manipulation but stand to reverse their fortunes when the explosion arrives. Who are they?

cb2- You're the kind of guy to give insomnia a good name! Get some rest, man, the future of free-gold may depend on it. I for one am tired of existing behind the 'gold curtain' even though a lifetime's fortune is likely to be made as we wait. Mr. GorbaRubin, TEAR DOWN THAT CURTAIN!! George Bush, too bad you can't put all this on clinton w/o also giving Dad his due, and possibly Ronnie too. Dems or repubs, all seem to cast the same shadow {govt}. Slush funds and smoothies, things got slightly out of hand, one for the history books, and a plague upon the land. Got an anchor?

slingshot- STREET SMART?? How{e} about smart enough to stay the hell away from the street?? Berserk, turmoil, chaos, inferno, historic event, NO? 1929 will no longer be the landmark date of catastrophic economic collapses. Gotta go, fresh out of cliches.
Regards to the faithful,
a

slingshot (08/30/01; 18:53:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 60558)
Blame Game
Who cares? Were in it for the gold. To save our SIX O'CLOCK. At this point it does not matter who but what am I doing to soften the blow to my wealth. Even Goldbugs will not be immune when the pointing begins.
Slingshot

BR549 (08/30/01; 18:51:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 60557)
Separate Vacations?
KarenSue (msg#: 60543)—

I thought that your husband was …"outa here until after Labor Day, except for lurking. My wife is getting lonely. Wants to hit the golf course and talk about Jesus and wonderful things like that."

Is this the same guy you been sleeping with for 34 years? Please don't take offense. Some of my ATR buddies and me are just curious.

Very Respectfully.

BR549



site steward (08/30/01; 18:47:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 60556)
Fed's second straight day adding permanent reserves
Through today's outright purchase of $642 million in U.S. Government debt, the Fed's two-day total in permanent reserves added to the banking system has reached $1.058 billion.

Additional open market operations today resulted in $4.75 billion temporarily added to banking reserves through 7-day repurchase agreements and $2 billion added through 28-day repos.

Fed funds were trading slightly above target at 3.56 percent.

R.

CoBra(too) (08/30/01; 18:39:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 60555)
@ BB - re - Bone Pile
Just occurred to me:
Bush sr.: "Read my lips... "
Bush jr.: " Pink Slips... ?"

Well, waddayaknow ... no go - in da economy - will I meet da same fate as my daddy? Uh, whatta shame, dad wasn't ta blame - nor me, assa somebody before me hassa wrecked de economy ... too bad, dad, let's a start a smart campaign for (am-)bush III - ... who knows he might even grow to be a tree - hopefooley - we'll c2b (aka cb2) - forgive me and I'll spare thee ... tonight - promise and g'night!

Black Blade (08/30/01; 18:34:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 60554)
Nikkei Absolutely Getting Creamed!
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

The Nikkei is falling fast and furious right out of the gate. Now it's a race for sub 10,000 with the Hang Seng yet to open.

BR549 (08/30/01; 18:27:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 60553)
Cornfield Index-Today's Real POG $2,430.22/oz Annualized Inflation=19.09%
http://federalreserve.gov/releases/H41/Current/
New Federal Reserve update out today shows inflation.

Cornfield County Reserve calculates the real price of gold today at $2,430.22/oz.

CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CONDITION OF ALL FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS Release Date: August 30, 2001 in MM=Millions of Dollars

Total Assets-..........$625,160MM…………….Last week-$632,216MM
Less Total Liabilities-$610,367MM…………….Last week-$617,359MM
Less Total CAP.ACC TS-…$ 14,792MM…..…..Last week-.$14,857MM

Value of FRN's-........$579,849MM......Last week.$577,729MM

True Current Value Gold (261.5MM oz div. into $ 579,849 MM) =$2,217.40/oz.last week $2,209.29/oz. FRN* + 10% STORAGE =$2,439.14/oz.last week $2,430.22/oz. Change + $8.92


Inflation on yearly basis Aug 23rd base= .00367 x 52 = 19.09%

(OR) 261.5MM oz. of gold on hand x $2,439.14 real value of gold = $579,849 MM is value-based currency value of FRN's as of today.

(OR) the dollar would be valued at 1 / 2,439 oz. U$ in Gold.

*Assumes current Fed numbers without taking into account some current liabilities and some current assets that under GAAP maybe should be counted. Assumes if current FRN's were to be frozen and liquidated for Gold today. Does not account for the printing of additional dollars which will dilute the price per oz. Takes total gold on hand by total Values computed if US goes back on gold standard and FRN's on hand are exchanged for physical gold on hand at the Federal Reserve today.

(OR) If gold had not been manipulated, then its MARKET VALUE IN FRN'S should be worth $2,439.14 /oz. FRN today.

Comments Welcomed!

Regards from The Bank of Cornfield County




slingshot (08/30/01; 18:17:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 60552)
Auspec Msg# 60549
Berserk is putting it mildly. It would be an advantage to be STREET SMART.
The way things are heating up I had to pull out my fire proof suit.
Slingshot

CoBra(too) (08/30/01; 18:17:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 60551)
@ Auspec - Amen
401K to 1K - are you of the boom(er) generation - generating a gloom(i)er depreciation than Ravi Batra described in the "Crash of the Millenium"?
J. Taylor has a new interview with the author - sorry can't comply with a link (at Bull and Bear), though maybe J.T. will be kind enough to help us out?
... too late to even think about a synopsis ...

zzzz -cb2

Black Blade (8/30/01; 18:04:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 60550)
Forbes Body Count
http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html

The "Bone Pile" grows. More non-essential "space-takers" cast out upon the "Bone Pile." This will get much worse. The Recession is on.

auspec (8/30/01; 17:50:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 60549)
Midas: Right on Cue
In the near future I will be writing a piece on financial integrity and credibility. Wall Street, the bullion dealers and the mainstream press are losing what they had of it fast. As stated in this column many times over the past year(s), the American public's hard earned 401K money is going to turn into 1K money and when that happens they are going to go on the warpath, looking for scalps and scapegoats for their unexpected financial misfortune.

When they realize that the U.S. Government and their own central bank rigged the gold market (and other financial markets) for many years and then let it all blow up out of sheer greed, arrogance and stupidity, they will rightly go berserk. The resulting turmoil will become a crisis of confidence such as one America has rarely experienced.


auspec (8/30/01; 17:25:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 60548)
sector
"Goin down with the ship"
"A fight to the finish"
"Dieing with their boots on"
"Until the last minute of the last day"

Dr. Frankenstein would be proud of what these morons have created!

sector (8/30/01; 16:56:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 60547)
@uponroof Until the Last Dog Dies
With JPMC holding $300,000,000,000 in interest rate derivative VAR )value at risk) the cabal will die before admitting wrong headedness. They have bet half the net worth of the bank on these derivatives because they knew interest rates were linked to the price of gold and since the price of gold was controlled they had a perfect money machine.

If pog rises, interest rates rise to defend the dollar thus putting their low volatility IRDs under water...no one will take the other side of that trade.

It will be a financial armageddon. A paradigm, seismic event almost no one sees coming...even here.

Oh, BTW... the BIS holds $65 trillion in IRDs according to their Annual Report.

Netking (8/30/01; 16:36:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 60546)
ECB says euro will unify Europe
http://www.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/europe/08/30/euro/index.html
Some "Ero-Spin" on the Euro from Wim Duisenberg:

"The euro is much more than just a currency. It is a symbol of European integration in every sense of the word.

"In terms of economic integration, the euro is a symbol of successful enterprise and initiative which has crossed borders and removed barriers to people working, trading and living together.

"In terms of political integration, the euro is a symbol of stability and unity. Countries from a continent which, throughout the ages, has so often been ravaged by war, have together vowed to uphold the values of freedom, democracy and human rights."

He added: "In addition to the economic and political benefits which the euro brings, it will, I believe, help to change the way in which we think about one another as Europeans . . . "
------------------------------------------------------------
Sir Galearis(60540)Good comment. There has certainly been feedback from here & there that physical Ag IS drying up a little & that it's now harder to get what you want. . . when you want it. . . especially if people are a little fussy with their purchase requirement parameters.

I believe we've reached bottom Galearis, all the classic signs are there, yes. The bull always starts off very quietly before he finally charges with an eventual "blow off" top at the end . . . exciting days ahead for gold & silver bugs.
------------------------------------------------------------
Karen Sue - good post & we'll keep pray'in for Sir HBM!

Beowulf (8/30/01; 15:55:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 60545)
C.S.S. Hunley
I just received my last issue of "Civil War Times Illustrated" and it happens to have a good article of the C.S.S. Hunley recovery. The beginning of the article starts out with a huge picture of the 1860 $20 Gold piece that Lt. Dixon had as a good luck charm in his pocket.

I wonder when they'll put this up for sale? Seeing as it has been damaged by someone firing a bullet at it bending it in half and then filed the back side flat and defaced it by inscribing "Shiloh, April 6th 1862, My Life Preserver, G.E.D", I'd give them the melt value for it. (Grin)

-Beowulf

R Powell (8/30/01; 15:45:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 60544)
KarenSue
If HBM has enough silver eagles, soon you may not need extra internet connections. With POS at $40/ounce you may be able to just buy the whole system.
Your post and the response it generated reflect the effort you spent. Well done!
Netking, the silverbugs are increasing in numbers!
Rich

KarenSue (8/30/01; 14:24:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 60543)
RS @ # 60209 (08-24-01)
Sir

I have been pondering the words you used "hope and pray" since the day you posted them on August 24. I have decided to come out of the closet partially. Let me say, "I will stick an arm and a leg out and hope that it will not cause a great disturbance.

I have slept with Hill Billy Mitchell for more than 34 years. I know him better than anyone else in the world. I can tell you that he has many flaws. (smile)

Also let me tell you that he is alive and well, probably due to your prayers.

Only me

KS

PS: I would hope to be judged more for the information provided in my post # 60368 on 08-28-01 (a post upon which I labored dilligently) than for any association I may have with the name, Hill Billy Mitchell. Also, I use HBM's internet connection as I cannot afford my own connection. He has control of the money and has spent great sums on Silver Eagles in recent months, much too much, to allow for that. I think that soon he will head back to gold, thus not much hope for an extra internet connection just to post on USAGOLD.


Old Yeller (8/30/01; 13:55:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 60542)
ORO

Great to see you posting again.

Looks like we may have lost another engine, will we be clipping the treetops soon?

Old Yeller (8/30/01; 13:48:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 60541)
A. Burns;"Your eminence,I beg to differ..."
http://www.prudentbear.com/boards/user/non-frames/message.asp?forumid=4&messageid=66778&threadid=66778

More brickbats for Professor Dornbusch.

All I can say is "Bravo,well done'sir"

Galearis (8/30/01; 13:47:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 60540)
@Netking your # 60535 on silver
My miniscule contribution for the day on the subject: I had the pleasure of seeing (and feeling) the newest top of the line Nikon digital camera and some sample photos from it yesterday, and I would have to say that this mode of photography truly is the way of the future in photography. The images had little grain, were crisp and sharp, and the camera had wonderful bangs and whistles (including zoom) that almost rivaled a modern slr of modest quality. In addition one can purchase a 100 mb card for it and a little zip drive downloader for it to store ones images. The special neutral pH print paper available for your printer now has an archival storage of some 50 plus years (which beats film by a factor of 2.

All this can be yours for a modest $3000. Including printer.

Just in case you thought I was arguing FOR this progress, I am not. Film is the medium for the vast majority of users and will be for many years. Again price will determine this.
I do not expect demand will rise for these cameras faster than the painful elements of economic stresses in the near future and the market will dry up faster than for that of film.

On another matter, silver supply and signs of separation in paper price, if one looks in on ebay these days for a source of silver bullion it quickly becomes apparent that this is no longer a source. I only found 2 "name" bullion items (Englehards etc) in the 54 auctions on-going. The number of auctions has reduced by easily two thirds and the vast majority of this "bullion" appears to be novelty rounds or other items called "bullion" to catch the ride on the search engine. The novelty rounds I now consider as suspect 925 "bullion" and not .999 - even though these items may be marked as .999. Beware!
The final point to make in all this is the price of these items that seem to average at some 15 to 20 per cent higher in price than just two months ago. This with a rapidly declining paper price (that today closed at $4.17).

All in the FWIW catagory, of course.

Best regards,

G.

site steward (8/30/01; 13:42:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 60539)
Let Centennial be your guide in this realm... (see link)
http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/buy.html
Provided with reference to uponroof's lastest post where he wrote:
----"It has just been reported on 'The American Advisor' that a large pension fund has bought into the numismatic market. They are predicting more funds to follow.---"

R.

site steward (8/30/01; 13:36:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 60538)
Dow and Nasdaq continue to slip; plenty of potential downside remains
http://www.usagold.com/goldenchalkboard/gc_stockbubble.html

The anatomy of a bubble. Have a look.

R.

uponroof (8/30/01; 13:22:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 60537)
Engine #3 Flameout
Well the Stock Market has finally given up on "the summer ralley".....poof!.....FLAMEOUT.

Our trade imbalance has been in FLAMEOUT mode for years.

Now we watch the buck sputtering, coughing and wheezing.

TIME magazine is running a very prophetic article, in their Sept 3 issue, on the global economy. It is entitled: Are You Worried Yet?....One Spark Could Ignite a World Economic Crisis"

Folks, it's definitely time to be worried.

Does everyone realize that the world's reserve currency, the almighty king buck, has lost over 8 PERCENT of it's value since the first week of July! THIS IS FAR AND AWAY THE MOST WIDELY HELD CURRENCY ON THE PLANET! DOWN 8% IN LESS THAN 2 MONTHS! (a lot of lost purchasing power!)

We are in a death spiral. If real estate, the last engine, collapses, fasten your golden crash helmets.



I wonder if the cartel will attempt to reverse their multi-layered, interlocking, totally hopeless positions on gold, or simply die trying to maintain short. I suspect the rogues with less complicated positions may move first forcing the hands of those who are 'up to their eyeballs' short. Something is gonna break somewhere. We are getting down to the absolute nitty gritty. Enjoy the show.

BTW-It has just been reported on 'The American Advisor' that a large pension fund has bought into the numismatic market. They are predicting more funds to follow.

Econoclast (8/30/01; 13:08:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 60536)
Nice to see the word "ORO" on my monitor...
I must admit having a bias that is towards "non-condemnation" of the French. I lived there with an upper-class, "politically connected" family for a time when I was younger. I will be visiting the country in the fall and am looking forward very much to having some "grown-up" discussions with them.
The French people are very prideful both in themselves and their country and culture. I can not see them settling for a suboordinate role in the Eurozone. They do have socialist tendencies but their nationalism trumps all (IMHO). I have not been over there for quite a few years and am looking forward to seeing if the country has changed, or if my more developed economic and political views give me a different perspective. But my own personal experience with the country has been nothing but positive (if you're a friendly kid that speaks French, you're not an "ugly American").

Netking (8/30/01; 13:04:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 60535)
Silver, Photography & China / Rich.
I thought this update might be of interest I found at posted recently by 'flash' at K1:
------------------------------------------------------------
Lucky slip reflects challenge

China's largest photographic film maker, Lucky Film, had a near 11 per cent slide in first-half profit, due to a fiercely competitive domestic market.

Lucky, China's standard bearer in a power struggle with United States' giant Eastman Kodak and Japan's Fuji Photo Film, posted interim earnings of 102.19 million yuan (about HK$95.77 million), down 10.7 per cent from last year, it said in a statement published in the Shanghai Securities News.

Competition is intensifying and eroding profit margins in the film and printing paper market as China heads towards membership of the World Trade Organisation, say analysts.

A simmering price war is pushing film prices down and eating into revenue. Analysts say film prices are up to 30 per cent lower in major Beijing supermarkets than they were a year ago.

Mainlanders buy an average of just 0.1 rolls of film a year, while people in the US buy three each, Kodak estimates.

In the short term, Lucky - which has been adding two to three outlets a day to its 2,700 total in a race to match Kodak's 6,000 - will find the going tough but manageable.

Lucky has reason to feel secure, having no shortage of suitors among foreign firms looking to seal a strategic partnership to augment and enhance their relative positions in China.

It is being courted not only by Kodak and Fuji, but also by Japan's Konica and Belgium's Agfa.

http://china.scmp.com/business/ZZZ5FN4ZEQC.html
-----------------------------------------------------------
* The key point, prices of film down 30%, volume of film being sold UP and the biggest user of photograpic film in world with an emerging economy & a huge population base in the middle of a price war. Yep yep yep silver's use in photography is dead for sure(smile) - Netking
------------------------------------------------------------
Rich - Link posted by Rich, AgBull & also Netking, we'll convert 'em all yet buddy!(grin)

escapethematrix (8/30/01; 12:56:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 60534)
Dot.com crash squeezes top insurer
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1516000/1516287.stm
Snippet:

The dot.com collapse and a Brazilian oil rig disaster have combined to squeeze the world's oldest insurer, Lloyd's of London. The insurance market has been forced to increase its projected loss for the last two years to £2bn ($2.9bn).
Now the bankruptcy of a host of dot.com firms, and a very expensive oil rig disaster in Brazil, will once again push the firm deep into the red in 1999 and 2000.

But Lloyds also noted that trading conditions are now improving

Conditions improving?? I wouldn't be so sure of that, boys


BR549 (8/30/01; 12:43:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 60533)
Oil, Euro's & shorts
White Hills-"I am looking for a move in the very near future , 3-6 months, that will have to include the oil producing countries and their acceptance of Euro's in oil settelments."

I could not agree more. First the Russian's go to value-based currency to swap out their hoarded FRN's, next the Euro's along with a 1/4 pt drop. It's world war against the dollar. You and BB's close watch of the fuel that drives the U.S. economy being chopped off at the well cap is what will wreck the $US.

AG & Co. can't really plead ignorance, just stupidity.
As the paper burns, I wonder whom they are going to indict for this campfire that got out of control.

Gold +$1.50. Dow -$221.

Go physical GOLD.

p.s.—White Hills: It was great fun and I for one appreciate your efforts. If we lose a PB every now and then, it's OK, as long as we win the giant Gold lottery in the long run.

CNBC's Chicago Rick-The best of CNBC says that the green arrows that one can look for is that you can make money being short in stocks. He keeps talking like that, there will be an opening at the CBOT announcers booth. I hope not.



R Powell (8/30/01; 12:37:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 60532)
James Paplava interviews David Morgan
http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/Morgan3.htm
I just got in and found this link in the mail.
No comments as I haven't read it yet. It prints out at 8 pages. Also, I haven't read today's entries, if someone has already provided this link we'll have to say something about great minds thinking alike. Or something about how easily sheep are herded as a group?
Rich

The Stranger (08/30/01; 12:11:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 60531)
Dollar Strength Not So Easy to Explain - BOE
I don't know if this has been posted, yet. I also don't know who published it because it was sent to me by a friend who didn't say.
Dollar's rise 'not linked to productivity'
By Ed Crooks, Economics Editor
Published: August 28 2001 20:13GMT | Last Updated: August 28 2001 20:24GMT



The strength of the US dollar in recent years cannot be fully explained by
higher productivity growth or capital inflows, according to a new analysis by
the Bank of England.

Currency market analysts have generally explained the 37 per cent rise in the
trade-weighted value of the dollar over the past five years as a consequence
of overseas investors' enthusiasm for US assets. But in a study published on
Wednesday in the Bank's Quarterly Bulletin, staff economists argue the rise
in US productivity growth can account for a small proportion of the dollar's
rise.

The Bank economists say it is widely accepted that there has been a
structural rise in US productivity growth, particularly in the technology
sector, which has led to higher capital inflows, higher expectations of
future profits, higher investment and higher share prices.

However, they have produced illustrative calculations showing that a rise in
productivity which increased output in the internationally-traded sector of
the US economy by 5 per cent would raise the real dollar exchange rate by a
little move than 2 per cent.

The numbers suggest that the recent pick-up in US productivity has been
nowhere near large enough to justify the dramatic appreciation in the dollar
since 1995.

The Bank economists say an alternative explanation is that the dollar's rise
has been "a purely cyclical phenomenon", caused by the boom in investment and
the fall in savings in the US. If that has been the reason, then as domestic
demand falls and the US economy slows, the dollar will drop.

Richard Portes of the Centre for Economic Policy Research said the Bank of
England study backed the current academic consensus that short and
medium-term movements in exchange rates were impossible to explain in terms
of economic fundamentals. "A significant part of what has been going on has
been market psychology, and market psychology turns," he said. "We may have
to wait for notes and coins to be introduced to see a real change in
sentiment on the euro."

Most market analysts still believe that capital flows are an important
determinant of exchange rate movements. But this year these flows have
appeared to offer less support to the dollar.

In the first quarter of 2001 the net inflow of direct and equity investment
into the US was $24bn, compared to $211bn for the whole of 2000.

Paul Meggyesi of Deutsche Bank said: "The US productivity miracle is being
increasingly called into question - both in its extent and in its durability.
We should expect the dollar to trend lower from here." On Tuesday the euro
was virtually unchanged against the dollar at just below $0.91 - close to its
highest level in five months.




White Hills (08/30/01; 11:57:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 60530)
Market Report
MK, About the Euro, it would seem that a .25% decrease in the interest rate at this time is the wrong move. However as you said yourself it is a political move. If you are going to bring down a king you must strike with overwhelming force and with everything you have ,there would be no second chance. I am looking for a move in the very near future , 3-6 months, that will have to include the oil producing countries and their acceptance of Euro's in oil settelments. This also would include the dumping of dollars as reserves and the touting of gold as a key part of the Euro Monetary system. Remember stability in the Euro is what they are aiming at. Their audience they are playing to isn't the US but the Middle East. Oil is the game and presently the $ is the King. If you want to bring down the King-?---------------White Hills

BR549 (08/30/01; 11:24:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 60529)
Heeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!! Hawwwwwwwwwwwwwww!!!!!

DOW—Below $9,915.00,,,,next stop below $9,700…..How LOW can it go? All Cats are still alive. Here kitty, kitty, kitty……..


CoBra(too) (08/30/01; 10:58:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 60528)
@ USA Gold -
Seems to me there are a few left - thinking like me - ...
Almost thought I'm totally daft and as to understand the "New Economy" you have to pretend to be thinking the opposite of "Old Economy" - as clear cut as pretending not to be brought up to appreciate the cause of the melee!

I thank thee, MK for clear words ... as the world economy is heading for decay - you've still made my day!

Hooray, or not - bigot, you say and may - even right -
no way - cb2

PS: Having a private BBQ with my son - will catch-up later?

USAGOLD (08/30/01; 10:42:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 60527)
EURO INTRODUCED UNDER INTEREST RATE CLOUD
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html
Note: My (almost)daily, on-line Commentary and Review is available to prospective clients on a trial basis by registering at the link above. US-based registrants will also receive a hard copy of our 32 page News & Views: A Quarterly Review of Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. The Quarterly Review will also be available for download here in the near future.

In Brief: Gold was down in
New York this morning trading
for the most part in response
to the ECB interest rate cut.
Though the door is still open
to a policy which would favor
a stronger euro, this .25% cut
appears to be just the
opposite -- a policy move in
tandem with the recent Fed cut
which hints at Europe's
unwillingness to take the
steps necessary to truly
strengthen the euro against
the dollar. It sends the wrong
signal at the wrong time and
it is not surprising that the
euro has fled to the downside.
This looks like more of the
same action which has
characterized currency markets
for the past several years.
Soon we will be talking about
the strong dollar policy again
as the greenback retakes the
high ground. That will be bad
economically for Europe and
bad for the United States and
could signal a deeper
recession than originally
anticipated on both sides of
the pond with all the
attendant negative effects in
the stock market.

In what has to be one of the
more notable historical
ironies of the year, the new
euro currency was unveiled
today in a well-orchestrated
publicity campaign. What might
be gained by such efforts with
the public at large will be
lost among the more studious
investors and money men who
understand the differences
between hoopla and
real-politic, rhetoric and
substantive policy -- not to
speak of interest rate
differentials. Not all the
positive urgings with respect
to the euro in the world (as
we witnessed this morning from
the financial world's top
institutions) will nullify the
obvious lack of resolve on the
part of the European financial
establishment to do something
to engender confidence in its
own currency. If they fail
with the introduction of this
currency, they have only
themselves to blame.

Oh well, my fellow
goldmeisters, at least now we
know the policy adds up to
"inflation-in-tandem" on both
sides of the Atlantic. The
best the ECB can hope for in
this self-imposed damage is
that the euro holds its own
and doesn't crater under the
circumstances. The dollar has
already been over-produced to
the brink of monetary
insanity. What's the
knowledgeable investor to do?
The best portfolio response to
inflation is a little yellow
metal tucked safely away.
Neither official currency is a
real hedge against the other.
Gold is. . . . .

Sierra Madre (08/30/01; 10:36:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 60526)
Maybe some will be interested to know.....

That in the last couple of weeks, media and press have been reporting on incipient guerrilla organizations in Mexico.

This is a new "song" that is being played.

Of course, reporting is absolutely indispensable for a guerrilla movement to grow. Best thing would be to black out all reporting of such subversive movements. But no, there is full reporting.

As a consequence, friends, you can count on Mexico being in the throes of a full-blown guerrilla war in 18 months. You will have a great increase in the number of people wanting to enter the US.

Just in case you care to know.

Sierra

diehard (08/30/01; 10:30:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 60525)
@ Nickel 62, where can I find US Treasury Direct
Howdy,

please let us know what url stands for The US Treasury Direct. You mentioned it on todays postings, please let us know, where we can find it on the net !

Grateful in advance

diehard

White Hills (08/30/01; 09:57:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 60524)
Maybe its me
Just back from Arizona to my computer. Apologies to all who had numbers in the lottery. WE LOST. Will do it again when the grand prize is larger. The ignorance by the general public as to what is going on in the economy and monetary system is very sad. they have no clue. Talked yesterday to a orthopedic surgeon who thought the dollar was backed by GOLD. Also thought the Euro wasn't any good because it was down in the exchange rates to the dollar. I didn't even try to say anything I just handed the latest Postings of FOA that I had been reading in his office waiting room and said no more. If he reads the postings he, of course ,will begin to ask questions, because he has something to lose. If not, at least I tried. From the orthopedic surgeon who thinks that the $ is backed by Gold to the Gold Prospecting shop owner that thinks gold is too expensive to mine and ,of course, it pays no interest. These are but examples of why we are in the mess we are in. Not having the words to say in these situation I have started to give people who are interested selected posts from this forum on these various topics. It seems to be working. The only way that I feel we can affect any of these problems is to somehow spread the knowledge of the type that is presented here every day to as many people as we can. I admire and support GATA in their quest to make everybody aware of what has been happening in the Gold Market. White Hills

escapethematrix (08/30/01; 09:36:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 60523)
Microsoft Faces New EU Probe for Abusing Dominance
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=AO45BMRTaTWljcm9z
Brussels, Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The European Commission expanded its antitrust probe of Microsoft Corp., accusing the largest software maker of using illegal methods to dominate the market for server software that runs local computer networks.
Competition Commissioner Mario Monti also said Microsoft unlawfully tied its Media Player software to the Windows operating system, putting rival makers of software for playing music and video downloaded from the Internet at a disadvantage

Tensions are running high already...Trade War is brewing.

Trailguide: Was the ECB rate cut a surprise?? Do you think we may see another "emergency" cut by US Fed soon if equity markets slide?? What about lease rates returning to such "fraudulent levels?? As always, thanks for all your thoughts and efforts...Perhaps the time might be right to get a good deal on a new computer :)??



BR549 (08/30/01; 09:01:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 60522)
Alan Greenspan, and four other Fed big shots lost a combined $2 million last year.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,33263,00.html


Bill O’Reilly-"According to the Financial Market Center, a private organization that analyzes financial data, Alan Greenspan, and four other Fed big shots lost a combined $2 million last year. Greenspan has most of his money in Treasury bills. And interest rates are going down, so his interest on reinvestment is falling."

Anybody want to get a "Help Alan" donation fund going?

The DOW wins the race---$9,999.97

Watch out for those "dead cat" bounces, however.

agbull (08/30/01; 08:57:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 60521)
Silver in a Recession
http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/Morgan3.htm
JIM: What about the silver market in a recession? I have seen some posts on the web stating that the silver deficit might actually turn into a surplus this year because the demand will be down so much with the economy weakening. Do you buy that?

DAVID: I've seen the same thing. It is basically another case of good spin doctors. Yes, demand is usually down in a recession. I won't argue that. But that is where the truth ends, because the total truth is that the amount silver mined is also less. Since zinc and copper prices have suffered lately. In fact, zinc prices are down about 18% year to date. The amount of byproduct silver is going down -- perhaps more rapidly than silver demand. CPM believes the fundamentals for silver remain attractive and it has raised its 2001 deficit target from 97 million ounces in February to 115 million ounces in the second quarter 2001 report. So what that means is that the deficit predicted for 2001 has just been increased by nearly 20%. So, Jim, this talk about the structural deficit going away this year is just talk!



KarenSue (08/30/01; 08:57:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 60520)
White Rose advice
http://www.usagold.com/halloffame.html
I would recommend this along with the other suggestions offered so far:

1) Click on the link provided for USAGOLD Hall of Fame

2) Scroll down to page 4 and click on: The Stranger (03/02/2001) On Bonds versus Gold

You will find some very valuable information. Probably the most advice knowledgeable available compressed in just a few paragraphs.

Hope this helps.

Only Me

KS


escapethematrix (08/30/01; 08:18:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 60519)
Q's for ORO....RE: #60499, 60495....
Greetings,ORO. I'm glad to see you posting again. Your posts are always very interesting and enlightening. I understand your reservations about the EU, and the socialist tendencies and bureaucracies of Europe.
I agree totally that the restrictions in regard to Internet freedom are shortsighted and unacceptable.
You bring up many valid criticisms of the EU, Germany and France. Rather than trying to defend the indefensible, I'd like to hear your thoughts in regard to the questions below.

Do you really believe that the US Government is any better?

Does the US actually support a free market, or crony-capitalism?

No one can argue that our American fiscal policy has proved fruitful to the majority of Americans, but are we, as a country, really succeeding economically?

How can the markets be seen as free, if the government, for whatever reason, has not only capped the Gold price, but blatantly lies to the Public and Congress about it?

How can there be a true competition between governments, and economies while the US dominates the playing field via the "strong dollar policy" which seems to revolve around blatant and hypocritical Gold market intervention by either the Treasury, or IMF?

You end with---What the French political class fears is being unimportant.

I don't think it is just the French. To simply say that the "political class" in ANY country fears being unimportant would be a more complete picture of political reality.

Thanks for all your past and hopefully future thoughts and contributions. You are a class act in my book.



BR549 (08/30/01; 08:13:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 60518)
With a little bit of cash, some stocks, a few bonds, you can.......
BB msg#: 60515--

Do you think that Charles Slob needs to learn how to "just relax"?


BR549 (08/30/01; 07:44:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 60517)
Conceptual eClownomics—


Net sum zero theories? Trade labour for cash? Not inflationary for individuals because the asset was earned? Would the sum of inflating classes of assets balance the sum of deflating? Thus, because of increasing money supply there must be 'inflation' somewhere? Draw boxes around assets? Draw bigger boxes?

There is a nest of this Conceptual eClownomics theory on both sides of the river that makes sense to you advocates but has little or no value to those who try to understand the world in the "real sense".

If you look at inflation in the traditional Austrian economic sense-it is an expansion of the money supply. If goods and services remain constant, then you have inflation. Deflation is just the opposite. No boxes need to be drawn. No "net sum zero theories needed".

If you have paper assets instead of physical gold, then expect to manipulated out of a portion of it by TPTB. If you want to play the banksters game, then expect to be hosed. You deserve it by the way. If your have pledged your primary residence, whether it is a trailer, or a brick and mortar to the banks, they have a claim on your property. When the banksters choose to own it instead of allowing you to occupy it anymore, you deserve it. Draw a box around debt and it is still debt.

With all of the manipulations for the benefit of the banksters and TBTB, why do you conceptual types attempt to cloud the issues with this "gibberish"? Don't you think that your time would be better spent learning Milton Friedman or even Keynes theories first? Then you can understand what will happen to your assets if the world changes in one direction or another.

Do any of you conceptual's know how to read a balance sheet? An income statement? I have seen brilliant comparisons of Assets on the General Ledger to expenses on the Income Statement. Forget about Generally Accepted Accounting Procedures. You guys don't need them.

I defend anyone's right to post anything that they want. You conceptuals are sometimes "thin skinned" however, IMHO, providing an impediment to the rest of us who live in the "real world" and genuinely want to find out what is going on within it.



CoBra(too) (08/30/01; 07:38:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 60516)
After the Fact of 1/4 percent reduction by the ECB ...
Wim D's Press Conference was a non event.
After telling the world that the US economy's troubles may be more pronounced and of longer duration (surprise) than expected he went on to (not really) answer specific questions - forgetting even most of the q's. What a poor spectacle of a performance...

Fact is he's now inherited the same kind of jargon the FED's Chairman is using, albeit AG is more fluent and convincing. ... and of course, nobody in the EU is trying to
soften the stability pact, as even Mr. Eichel (who has alledgedly called for more flexibility in that respect) has called him on the cell phone, while touring Avignon. - Alledgedly to assure Dim W. that he didn't really mean it.

Reminds me of the bride groom, who gets second thoughts about his flexibility getting curbed when truly married. Well, yes the EU is great and so is marriage, though I'll reserve my right to greener pastures in case you strangle my desires a touch too much.

Core inflation has come down recently, though not sufficiently and the quest. towards the growth of M3 being 6.4% recently vs the targeted cap of 4.5% is not inflationary?

So why the hell did he accommodate the interest cut? - even if the euro went up a notch the SM's turned straight down ... probably disgusted too!

Regrets cb2

Black Blade (08/30/01; 07:01:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 60515)
Charles Schwab Flounders - Laying Off 2000

This just out, Charles Schwab is adding 2000 "Bags of Bones" to the "Bone Pile" as they can't keep their people busy with stock trades. Looks "grim" in the brokerage business these days. We live in "Interesting Times." It will get much worse. Hang on for the ride and get prepared. A little PM insurance could go a long way when all is said and done.

Black Blade (08/30/01; 06:50:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 60514)
DOW - Sub 10,000? - Maybe Today
http://www.mrci.com/qpnight.asp

RE: BR549,

DOW sub 10,000? Yes a definite possibility as early as this morning. Futures are falling fast. Can you say "Grim?" I knew you could. Cheers!

Gotta go help out Kalifornia with their energy problems. Back later.

Black Blade (08/30/01; 06:37:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 60513)
U.S. risks inflation in rebound -Milton Friedman
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010827/l27529151.html

Snippit:

ROME, Aug 27 (Reuters) - The United States should pull out of recession in 2002 but will have to keep an eye on inflation when it does, Nobel prize-winning economist Milton Friedman said in an interview published on Monday. ``With the very unusual Federal Reserve policy of successive interest rates cuts...the key problem once the recession ends in 2002 will be how to control inflation,'' Friedman was quoted as telling Italy's Corriere della Sera newspaper.

Black Blade: Nobel Prize recipient Milton Friedman says - We are in a Recession! I definitely agree. Inflation too? I think maybe so. Rising energy costs must be passed along to the consumer at some point as earnings disappear.


Tommy P (08/30/01; 06:28:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 60512)
Euro, Euro...
http://www.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/europe/08/30/euro/index.html
And a great beast appeared from the seas!! Looks good I hope this gives Wall St the Gitters!!

Black Blade (08/30/01; 06:25:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 60511)
Repossessions, Tight Credit Bog Down U.S. Mobile-Home Industry
http://www.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Economies&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_econ&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_economies&bt=ad_position1_economies&middle=ad_frame2_economies&s=AO4xpJBYLUmVwb3Nz

Snippit:

Ocoee, Florida, Aug. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Beau Jarrell doesn't have to live in the Wild West to see his share of ghost towns. Where are they? Florida's trailer parks. Jarrell, president of All Pro Recovery Inc. in Ocoee, has visited about 200 mobile homes this year to post 72-hour repossession notices on delinquent debtors' doors for such lender customers as Bank of America Corp. and Bank One Corp. The difference between this year and Jarrell's past experience is that now residents aren't paying up, or even sticking around to give Jarrell any lip when he comes back to change the locks. ``Chances are that if you put notice on the door it's already cleaned out by the time you get back,'' said Jarrell, who estimates that only about 10 of the 200 debtors have settled their bills.

Some economists aren't convinced. They argue that as long as unemployment is on the rise, blue-collar workers are at risk of losing their jobs, and their mobile homes. `You're going to see more delinquencies and bankruptcies,'' said Gary Shoesmith, director of the Center for Economic Studies at Wake Forest University's Babcock Graduate School of Management. ``It will get worse before it gets better.''

Black Blade: Yep, but every Bubba and Lew still hangs on to his 4X4 pickup truck with an "Easy Rider Rifle Rack." This is definitely a sign of the times. Best to get out of debt if possible and be "a beholdin to nobody."


Belgian (08/30/01; 06:23:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 60510)
Good Morning II
* Sound expansive global growth with only productive Debt *
is my definition for ^STABILITY^.

- Sound : honest and horizontal.

- Expansive : involving as much people as possible.

- Global : present currency problem.

- Only Productive Debt : determines the speed-cycles of the expansion.

Politics and Economics are out of sync and have to re-adjust !

White Rose Gold : A strictly personal (non-advisory) reflection on "investing" at present.
Argumentation for 100% Gold : Physical Gold in possession !

Intro : The best investment is in the business in wich you were able to generate the confetti. The fact that you were able to generate confetti-surplus is evidence that you are an expert in your domain and therefore succesfull and in the capacity to repeat it or transfer it to the next generation. If not desired, let us have a look at the present alternatives for the future, through systematic elimination.

1/ All bonds and currencies (cash) fluctuate and the final outcome at expiry (consumption use), remains unpredictable. Bonds and currencies are Debt-receipts (certificates)(cfr. TG). Who can predict the purchasing power of your paper within 5 or 10 years ?
Do present interest rates (5%), compensate adequately for such a risk ?

2/ Stocks : No, thank you. We are marching to the end and do not stand at the beginning of something big. Risk/Reward is unacceptable for some years to come. (see link urbansurvival.com)

3/ Other Tangibles : Real Estate / Land / Antiques etc...
Expertise is needed if you are not a gambling type.

If we do agree on the problem of stability and its definition...we must admit that the past speculations/gamblings cannot be projected linearly into the future. If the next expansive growth, needs/demands, the same amount of DEBT...you sign a contract for Hyperinflation. All optimists should watch how fast any plant can grow and produce fruits under extreme favorable conditions and witness how fast and sudden that same plant and its fruits can collapse totally. Challenging the laws of nature is a very, very risky business ! Don't count on me to join them. I want to grow "stable" and natural.

This brings us finally to the controversial discussion on the percentage of physical gold in your/mine/our/their possession, today !
5% - 10% - 20%...and this is, as far as the most courageous advocates dare to go. Even when a wide majority does agree on a highly probable POG of 500$/600$. My question is : what other alternative do you have with golden guarantees (risk/reward) of doubling your wealth within the next 5 to 10 years (compare 5%/IRs)? And what is the probability that your physical gold in possesion will be halved in value, within 5 years ?

I remain all ears (open ears and mind) for any argument against 100% physical gold at sub 300$/ounce today. Thanks !
I think we should have the courage to exchange ideas about this.

Black Blade (08/30/01; 06:16:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 60509)
Tokyo exchange to get ready for negative rates
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010829/t23875.html

Snippit:

TOKYO, Aug 29 (Reuters) - One of Japan's financial exchanges has said it will make its system capable of trades in negative interest rates, one of the more bizarre developments from the Bank of Japan's unusual experiment with free money.

Black Blade: The yen is so good that the BOJ will probably pay people to take it off their hands. You don't see this everyday. Hmmm…


Black Blade (08/30/01; 06:10:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 60508)
European Markets Crumble
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Under the weight of an ECB quarter point rate cut, the markets are tumbling "across the pond."

LeSin (08/30/01; 05:50:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 60507)
Prof. R. Dornbusch Answered By Mr. John Mueller, (Yes/No?)
http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/articles.html?id=010830001521&query=gold


LETTERS TO THE EDITOR: Willing to bet gold will make a comeback
Financial Times; Aug 30, 2001
By JOHN MUELLER



From Mr John Mueller.

Sir, Prof Rudiger Dornbusch always speaks with certainty but not always with coherence ("When the gold standard lost its lustre", August 28). He calls it a "certainty" that "gold as part of the international monetary system is dead" and disparages Prof Robert Mundell's view that gold will ultimately form the centre of that system. Yet Prof Dornbusch alludes to a peculiarity that makes his own prediction highly unlikely: the international monetary system is now based on one nation's currency, the US dollar.

President Richard Nixon's closing the gold window did not, as Prof Dornbusch implies, end the "exorbitant privilege" of the dollar's reserve currency status; it vastly extended that privilege. Thanks to the accumulation of official dollar reserves, mostly since 1971, the US has been able cumulatively to spend and invest at least Dollars 1,000bn more than it has earned. This Dollars 1,000bn of demand without a corresponding supply is the cause of the tenfold rise of the dollar-price level since the second world war - fivefold since 1971 - despite the repeated resort of central bankers to Prof Dornbusch's nostrum of "inflation targeting".

But as the 1929-33 debacle showed, a reserve-currency system can be the engine of deflation as well as inflation. In that episode, nearly all the world's dollar and sterling exchange reserves were liquidated, causing prices to collapse back to the pre-first-world-war level. Ever since, what my company has called the "world dollar base" (US currency and bank reserves plus official dollar reserves) remains an excellent predictor of commodity inflation and deflation, including the 1999-2000 inflation and 2001 deflation of energy prices.

Prof Dornbusch seems to me a lone voice in claiming that the international monetary system is behaving splendidly, thanks to central bankers' fine-tuning. I am willing to bet, with Prof Mundell, that there will not be lasting stability until the world system is again based on a money that is someone's asset without being anyone else's liability.

John Mueller, President and Chief Economist, LBMC, 2 Wisconsin Circle, Chevy Chase, MD 20815, US

Copyright: The Financial Times Limited




LeSin (08/30/01; 05:20:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 60506)
US$ - May only be useful as a History Study of Pictures of Past Presidents
http://top.rbc.ru/english/index.shtml?/news/english/2001/08/30/30121450_bod.shtml

Russian province gets rid of dollars
Citizens of the Russian province are worried about safety of their dollar savings, and they start transferring them in a more tangible form. Contrary to recent pre-crisis patterns, when durable goods were the first to disappear from the shelves, now consumer demand increased for other products.
According to the Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper, citizens of Russia's regions are buying such costly goods as real estate, cars, jewelry etc. Although this increase cannot be called massive yet, certain tendencies are obvious. In Moscow, they are expressed not so clearly, but people in the province seem to have believed the predictions of some media sources about the dollar's collapse in the near future. After a number of economic crises in the past, Russian people became more careful and prudent. And these reasonable people prefer living in four-room flats, sitting on bars of gold and wearing many pieces of jewelry, to having a heap of devalued dollar banknotes. They could still use dollars to study the history of the US presidency, but this is not the most lucrative business.

It is no wonder that Russia's province parts easily with a portrait gallery of American Presidents. The dollar had bad luck in the province. It had to force its way as a means of savings. As a result of economic crises and systematic falls of the national currency, the majority of citizens in Russia's regions realized that it was safer to invest their money in goods (vodka and carpets for the poor and real estate, cars and gold for the rich). Probably, this lack of trust in the dollar makes it easier for Russians to get rid of dollars now.

In recent months, Moscow and Saint-Petersburg have become a place of pilgrimage for those provincials who enjoyed higher incomes than average citizens of these central cities. Most of them were oil and gas dealers and small businessmen, who could afford to buy real estate in Moscow or Saint-Petersburg. According to the Moscow real estate agents, the increased demand caused a 5 percent rise in housing prices.

While heads of households are looking for flats, their wives are "attacking" jewelry shops. According to employees of Moscow's jewelry stores, a demand for jewelry with precious stones rose by 3 percent in August when compared to July. Traditionally, consumer demand falls in summer, because potential jewelry buyers prefer to spend their money on travelling. However, they were replaced by provincial moneybags this year.

It is interesting that it is jewelry that enjoys an increased demand, and not bars of gold. According to a Moscow bank employee, not a single bar of gold was purchased in the past year. And this is quite understandable: a bank is obliged to report every buyer of gold bullion to tax agencies. Not all well-off people aspire to have such an acquaintance.

However, rich Russian people could console themselves with buying prestigious cars. Rumors about the dollar's fall played into the hands of car dealers. According to Moscow's car shops, a demand for new foreign cars shot up. And most of the buyers were provincial citizens. The experts predict that a growth in the demand will continue until the end of the year. Car sales will double this year, compared to 2000, and reach 80,000 to 90,000 cars.

Probably, "provincial" dollars will help dedollarize the Russian economy, and the dream of many economists will materialize. 



Belgian (08/30/01; 05:13:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 60505)
Good Morning
Old Yeller (# 60501): WGC and the professor in the Financial Times.Happy that there was a reaction from WGC...but what a formal and unpassionate (no glow ! their marketing ?), answer, it was. Hate to criticize the WGC, constantly, but, another opportunity to take *Gold* into the public, has been trashed. And it was a free opportunity ! So be it.

Netking : M.E.-war possibility = small (me think so).
Intuition tells me that the world wants to face more economic-oriented probs. Contained local conflicts are more in fashion than rightout wars of some bigger scale.

Soros owning a big chunk of the Andes, Apex, silver miner (R.P.). Why not the metal itself if convinced about its leverage against Gold ? (leverage on leverage-?). And do these Soros-ike chaps, have Gold, and don't want to say it ?
Me confused (still). Must surely have something to do with Mars approaching earth (:-)(-:). Will that super glow be yellowish or silverish ? Smile Sir !

Auspec/Randy/Canuck/Solomon : I suspect strongly the utmost fundamental * PRICE STABILITY * (and currency stability)
must be connected with * GOLD * ! BTW, I've been mentionning already that the aspect "stability" is stressed clearly on each €-statement from any euro-builder on the news, overhere. Is the idea of "real" stability, after the past 30 years of debauche, the exclusive interest of EMU ?
Or does the dollar wants to jump on this bandwagon ? And does the dollar got inspired by what EMU wants to achieve ?
If so...*GOLD* could be the mutual interest and are the WA/SDRs/Custodial/Deep Storage etc - elements, interconnected.
The $ and € have as common cause the detoriated Growth / Debt / Employment problem. But both in a different way.
Both $ and € know very well that they can't evolve, economically, for another decade, linear to the previous past 30 yrs style. The clue is that Permanent Currency Depreciation is devastating as a result of the incapacity to generate growth (and welfare), without the maximum of justified and responsible, productive debt ! Simplier, if you want everything, Now and with taking the path of least resistance...you are condemned to fail. Close encounters of the Debtbergs and the growing Titanics.

The Globalization trend is telling us that this fundamental problem of Debt and Growth, is taken care off, through, big scale management (engeneering). Not everyone on his own, but rather big clusters of mutual interested parties.
Most shocking accidents à la LTCM have been smoothed.

POG management is considered up until now as a negative (value-related). What if the underlying initiative is positively intented (stability) by EMU and US as well ?
Who wants to abandon the past 30 years of materialistic expansion ? This boat is making water and a water-pumping consensus might be found quickly with Gold as the water-pump with a $ and € arm.

Frustrated by the lack of *ANSWERS*, I'm desperately searching for the right big picture to frame all the questions. The "stability"-builders, might be a larger cluster than we suspect up until now. Again, I stress on the fact that confrontation is minimalized and is strongly suggesting that there is more mutual, love and understanding, in order to get out of the post 1971 mess (debt/growth) we all got into. Note that debt/growth/expansion have different meanings for $ and €.

Whatever the outcome...present Gold-Valuation, remains absurd. And in a Good Morning II, I would like to reflect on the Sierra Madre / White Rose thing (#60485).






Canuck (08/30/01; 05:04:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 60504)
@ John Doe
Stellar post.

I understand your 'asset class' breakdown in terms of X-flation. No wonder the continuous debates; a virtuous circle, yes?

May I ask more novice questions?

Suppose there was no printing presses (?) and thus no incoming dollars. Would the sum of inflating classes of assets balance the sum of deflating? Thus, because of increasing money supply there must be 'inflation' somewhere?

Yes, I see that measurement of 'CPI' can be directed towards a deflating asset base. The government measurement of 'inflation' is therefore biased as opposed to 'crooked' as some may suggest. Conversely, inflation measurement in Nasdaq, for example, paints the opposite view.

So back to the 'general' view; inflating money supply does inflate various asset classes and therefore, since apples are still apples, more dollars are required to buy said apples, dilution of currency is the net result, yes?

So, 'deflation' causes assets to become smaller but debt to become larger. Governments have the largest debt so therefore they encourage inflation of 'money supply'; debt become 'smaller' because money becomes 'smaller', assets become larger and they don't give a 'rat's ass' about 'consumer' inflation because they can hide it with their voo-doo accounting schemes.

Further speculating, does it not seem academic then to measure aspects of inflation. How is it measureable? Gathering all the eggs into a basket and discussing the increase of money supply at some 15%, can one safely say
'inflation' is running at that level. Would the sum of all measureable inflations and deflations then be 15%?

Coming from another angle and thinking of the 'net sum zero' theories (Mr Asher I believe) the new net money must be distributed to varying asset classes causing a general increase across the 'board'. When I get a little confused (and this happens regularly) I draw a box around my economic world (my net worth/assets) and compare it to the bigger box of a company and to the yet larger box of a government. I have various assets which when contained inside the 'box' have a 'net sum zero' effect. Stocks change to bonds, bonds change to gold, cash changes to golf clubs but the 'box' does not deviate in 'value'. However, if an asset leaves the 'box' I experience deflation and vice-versa if cash enters the box I experience inflation. Further, if the new cash entering is morphed into T-bills for example I increase net worth.

The problem I see is I trade labour for cash, cash enters box, net worth increases and I don't see it as inflationary because the asset was earned. Looking back at the 'big government box' how is cash (money) earned? It 'prints the money out of thin air' as the statement goes and throws it into the box creating greater 'net worth'. Is this allowed? How does a government become wealthier, surely not by printing money? Posting (selling) a bond allows one to create money at the government level, does it not?

I'm blabbering again.

Thanks for your note Mr. Doe, gets the wheels spinning!!

nickel62 (08/30/01; 03:58:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 60503)
White Rose Some advice from a friend
You mentioned that you have municipal bonds and some bond funds that you inherited. Do not lose much sleep over the municipal bonds themselves. The main exposure that you have is the credit risk of that particular issuer. In this case your broker should be able to provide you with the credit rating of the various municipal issuers. Generally there is little risk of a high grade municipality defaulting even in the dire economic situations that we discuss on this forum. So that should not be a concern. If the municipal bonds are of a very long duration(say more than five to ten years) you might have some exposure to interest rate risk were interest rates in the US to rise dramatically. Since you mentioned that you inherited these bonds I assume they were purchased by a loved one before they died and most likely are fairly close to maturity now. SO don't lose one moment of worry about these municipal bonds. Your concern about the Heartland Bond funds problems is more pressing. Bond funds suffer in a rising interest rate enviroment because of the tendency of the manager to try and produce "better" short term performance in order to keep his job. As intereest rates rise and bond values decline the manager tends to sell the bonds to meet redemptions and is forced to recognize losses that you would not have to do if you as an individual held individual bonds in your portfolio. The Heartland Bond disaster was really of a slightly different character. It was a situation were certain bonds don't trade very often so they are priced daily not from an actual trade but from a matix of prices reflecting the last trades in that security(which might have been several weeks ago) or in some cases from the manager's list of similar bonds that did trade that day. Either way it is a process that is prone to subjective interpretation and can cause there to be a wide variation in the reported value and the actual price at which you could sell the bonds. This is especially true in a rapidly changing market. The Heartland fund is and was a small fund family in the midst of a huge fund market. While this type of mispricing can happen in any size fund it is much more likely to happen in a smaller sized operation. To protect yourself you might want to consider switching to a larger fund if the one you have is on the smaller size or more appropriately switch the money into another income producing asset. The US Treasuries would be a good choice since they are the most liquid market and would get you similar income without having to pay the bond fund management and expense fees. The most efficient way to invest in US Treasuries is to find US Treasury Direct on the internet and follow there instructions on how to buy US bonds directly from the US Government. THis is a GOvernment provided service like the Post Office and provides the ability to buy bonds of any maturity from the GOvernment auctions without paying any of the normal commissions. Rubin and Clinton tried to surpress this group because it took business away from the brokerage community and they closed all the regional offices but it still is available on the net and over the phone. US TReasury Direct or Treasury Direct as it is know has millions of americans who use it to buy their bonds cutting Wall Street out of the transaction. <<<<<< Not investment advice...but suggestions for a friend>>>>>

Netking (08/30/01; 02:39:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 60502)
"Prospecting for Silver" - Morgan
http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/Morgan3.htm
Transcription of interview (from August 27) Between Jim Puplava & PM Analyst David Morgan. (A "must read" for silver bugs - Netking)

Snippit:
". . . commodities often return to the mean or their average. So, if we use the work of Franklin Sanders, he states:

If you had a chart 45 feet long where each foot equaled 100 years, only in the last 15 inches would the gold/silver ratio ever rise above 16:1. In 1941 the ratio shot up briefly to 100 to 1. It occurred again in 1991. It is also important to remember that the last time people sought monetary refuge, that the ratio again returned to 16:1 ($800 gold/$50 silver). What this suggests to me is this time, silver will shine brightly during any economic condition . . . . "

Old Yeller (08/30/01; 01:03:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 60501)
Understated critique of Professor Dornbusch
http://globalarchive.ft.com/globalarchive/articles.html?id=010829001715&query=gold

From Haruko Fukuda of the WGC,no less.With an emphasis on gold's role as a store of value.

Gandalf the White (08/30/01; 00:13:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 60500)
FAR the best minute to minute NIKKEI chart is this LINK
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^N225&d=c&k=c4&t=1d
<;-)



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