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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/30/2000 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Randy (@ The Tower) (11/30/00; 23:37:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 42583) Answer to Phos--"where does the gold come from" The simplest solution is to expect transfer of title of registered gold to the party requesting delivery from the party tapped by COMEX for the delivery obligation.This action will be transparent from the outside looking in, so do not hold your breath for flashing lights in the sky, nor for massive number changes within the COMEX "showroom floor". If a party did not have gold on hand, they likely would have settled the position along with the rest of the crowd prior to Thursday. Otherwise, they must turn to other sources (such as the physical market) to obtain the necessary goods for delivery prior to the end of December...which WOULD have potential for fireworks. Rational thought says that these non-gold parties already closed their positions in earlier trading days. Black Blade (11/30/00; 23:36:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 42582) The Joy of Hedging - Cambior Still Not Out of the Woods Cambior's lender approve restructuringMONTREAL (CP) - Teetering gold producer Cambior Inc. announced today its lenders have approved a restructuring plan to refinance the teetering miner's debt. The restructuring includes an agreement with a banking syndicate for a new $65 million US credit line, a prepaid gold sale deal for $55 million and the conversion of a $10 million loan into shares of the Montreal company. The arrangements are conditional on the completion of the sale of Cambior's (TSE: CBJ) La Granja copper mine in Peru. The South American mine was sold to global mining giant Billiton PLC of Britain earlier this week for $35 million. The new credit line and the gold sale agreement are scheduled to close in December, soon after the La Granja sale is finalized. Today's announcement follows more than a year of financial troubles for the Montreal company, which almost went bankrupt last year after posting huge losses on its gold hedging program - an insurance plan against falling prices. The company bet gold prices would continue to drop, but instead they rose sharply for a time. The losses forced the company to sell non-core assets to pay its debts, including the La Granja mine. ''After 14 months of effort, we will have repaid and refinanced a total amount of $225 million in financial obligations when all transactions are closed,'' president Louis Gignac said in a release. Under the restructuring deal, ''Cambior will have stabilized its financial position and rescheduled its remaining obligations over the next five years". Cambior said the commitment for new credit comes from a financial syndicate led jointly by The Chase Manhattan Bank of Canada and the Bank of Nova Scotia. The credit line, to refinance Cambior's debt, will be repaid over five years, with the first minimum repayment of $5 million due next year. Under the agreement, Cambior will issue to the syndicate 1.3 million warrants to buy common shares of Cambior at 56 cents Cdn per share, a 25 per cent premium over the closing price on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Wednesday. Shares reached $2.28 during the past year. Robert LaValliere, Cambior's manager of investor relations, said closing the La Granja sale is just a formality. ''It's only a matter of closing,' he said. ''The situation is a lot better than it was 12 months ago.'' Cambior has an agreement with Credit Suisse First Boston, also a current lender, for a $55 million gold sale of 233,685 ounces over five years. Finally, investor Jipangu Inc. of Japan has agreed to convert its $10 million mortgage on Cambior's 50 per cent interest in the Niobec mine in Quebec into equity through a private placement. As part of the plan, Credit Suisse and the syndicate lenders will get equal access to Cambior's assets if the Montreal company goes bankrupt. Cambior will also try to sell its remaining copper assets in Argentina and Arizona over the next year to reduce debt. The company expects to get $30 million from those dispositions. Cambior had revenues of $332 million last year, but had to write down all its assets after the disastrous gold-hedging policy that almost wiped out the company. While Cambior is focusing on its core gold mining operations, the company also plans to keep some key non-gold assets. Last week, Quebec miner Mazarin Inc. announced an agreement to buy a 50 per cent interest in the Niobec mine in Quebec from Teck Corp. for $43 million. Cambior Inc. will continue to own the other half of the mine, which produces ferroniobium, an industrial metal used to harden steel.Black Blade: Seduced by the bankers with sweet lies almost destroys the company. Yet they are still vulnerable after all this pain. A lesson for other hedgers. Black Blade (11/30/00; 23:21:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 42581) Interesting Contest Between Hedger and Non-hedger Nears conclusion - and the Winner Is: Harmony expects to clinch Anglo mines by year-endHarmony Gold expects to conclude the purchase of South African gold mines Elandsrand and Deelkraal from AngloGold before the year-end in a deal expected to total $130 million. Chief executive Bernard Swanepoel says his company is in the final stages of a week-long "black hole" due diligence aimed to spotting any unanticipated problems at the mines. "We have been informed our bid is acceptable and the deal is down the track," he says.Durban Roodepoort Deep (DRD) submitted its own bid, but Harmony's all cash offer is more palatable to debt-laden AngloGold. DRD needs the cash flow, and so one wonders what the long-term future is for that company. It can still bid for AngloGold's Savuka, however, an operation on South Africa's west rand in which Harmony has no interest. There will not be a black-owned business component to the offer to buy Elandsrand and Deelkraal in the short-term, however. "We will look at black empowerment as a part of the strategy. But it's not a requisite of the deal from either side," says Swanepoel. Harmony will build in black empowerment at a later stage.The imminence of the deal is good news for Harmony shareholders who, according to management, can also look forward to record cash operating profit for the December quarter. Analysts believe the acquisition of the two west rand mines will add about $20 million in annualised earnings, a return of about 19 per cent over and above the cost of debt. Swanepoel says the company has been able to raise debt for the acquisition of the mines without recourse to hedging. "We are in a position to put finance in without hedging," Swanepoel says. This means Harmony could see its debt: equity rise to about 33 per cent. How this will cramp Harmony's ability for other deals without locking in hedging is debatable. The company is in line to bid for some of AngloGold's Free State mines, such as Tshepong and Bambanani. But these operations, and two others, Matjhabeng and Joel, are valued at $260 million. The Tshepong B and basal reefs are the same as that worked by Harmony's Masimong No. 5 shaft. This suggests synergies between mines need not be one of contiguity or "sharing a mill", as Swanepoel says. Similarly, Bambanani is based on the same orebody as Harmony's Unisel.Swanepoel says negotiations over buying some of AngloGold's Free State properties are relatively immature. "Who knows what market conditions will be at that time (when those deals are consummated). We could take more debt but if we can't finance the mines we won't do the deal," he says. The feeling among analysts is that Harmony will be forced to consider hedging, a step which would change the risk profile of the group. By: David McKay Black Blade: Harmony beats Durban to the punch once again. Hopefully the profitable Harmony Gold won't resort to hedging as its policy of no hedging is its biggest selling point! Better to remain profitable and unhedged and at the same time to forego any new acquisitions that would require pandering to the bankers with hedges. Hopefully other hedge fund miners such as Barrick would follow in Harmony's footsteps. Black Blade (11/30/00; 23:05:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 42580) Today's NG Report By Gloria Gonzalez, BridgeNews New York--Nov. 30--November natural gas cash prices for next day delivery soared on strong demand for physical natural gas due to cool temperatures in the Northeast and Midwest for the next few days and a tight power market in the West. NYMEX Jan Henry Hub natural gas futures settled up 40.8 cents at $6.589 per MMBtu cents after scoring a new all-time spot month high of $6.730 on a private forecast that called for cooler weather in the Midwest and lingering bullish sentiment about the latest storage data. A break of key technical levels, namely the previous spot month high of $6.620 and Jan's contract high of $6.680, added fuel to the rally. Strong physical demand was seen in the cash market with the Henry Hub trading about 35 to 40 cents higher this morning. "We had buyers coming out of the woodwork," one cash trader said.Natural gas prices at western points are still strong as the power market in the west remains tight, mainly due to outages at several key nuclear units in the region. Topock (Southern California border) prices hit the $20 mark and have traded in a range of $17.50 to $20.50 Thursday due to tight power supplies in California. "I think we had a glorious peak today," another trader said, adding that cash prices would probably slide ahead of the weekend Friday. U.S. Gulf natural gas traded in a range of $6.14 to $6.40 per MMBtu, up 34 to 40 cents when compared to Wednesday's range of $5.74 to $6.06 per MMBtu.Midcontinent natural gas traded at $6.03 to $6.34 per MMBtu, up 32 to 34 cents when compared to Wednesday's range of $5.71 to $6.00. Western gas traded in a wide range of $6.21 to $20.00 per MMBtu, up 60 cents to $2.00 when compared to Wednesday's range of $5.61 to $18.50 per MMBtu. In Canada, day gas at Nova's AECO-C Hub traded in a range of C$8.10 to $8.40 per gigajoule when compared to Wednesday's C$7.80 to C$7.90 range. TransCanada reported Alberta line-pack at 13.647 bcf, with the pipeline packing at a rate of 135 MMcf/d. Relatively cool weather will affect much of the eastern half of the country through this weekend. No extreme cold is expected, but heating demands will be above average in most locations. The western half of the country will experience milder weather and near- or below-normal heating needs.Black Blade: And winter isn't even here yet. Black Blade (11/30/00; 22:56:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 42579) Energy Inflation and PMs There are some interesting moves on the petroleum front today. The price of oil fell as Bill Richardson declared that if the Iraqis stopped producing oil, then the other members of OPEC will step up to the plate Oh really? Natural gas prices have increased, as it has become apparent that there is a true supply deficit whereas oil is not necessarily in deficit, but rather large sources of cheap oil are becoming depleted. The release of SPR oil provided some short term relief but will lead to long term problems. As the US population begins to depend on a government bailout Everytime oil prices rise, then the incentive for increased exploration and production activity is put on hold. Since January oil prices have risen 35%, but NG has risen over 150%! Natural Gas is in shorter supply than oil. The release of SPR oil does nothing to address this issue. In fact it discourages conservation of all energy including Natural Gas. The disconnect between oil and NG today suggests that the situation could go critical very soon. OPEC oil production is at an all time high, and yet oil inventories are near all time lows. In the 1970's and 1980's oil prices were higher because OPEC withheld production. Today it is because there is no excess capacity. This means we need all oil production to come on stream even that from Iraq (sorry Bill). Of course the precious metals have been suffering but that could change soon. Oil has always been priced in US dollars; however, the Iraqis now demand payment in Euros. This could encourage some other less friendly oil producers to follow. If the US dollar fades, then inflation will inevitably follow. Oil and oil based products will become more expensive as well as other imported products. Foreign investment will be withdrawn from US dollar denominated investments and investors would be inclined to seek protection in safe havens such as gold. The fun is just about to begin. Current Market Prices:Natural Gas 6.615 +0.026 +0.39 % Unleaded Gasoline 0.866 -0.0026 -0.3 % Heating Oil 1.0165 -0.006 -0.59 % Crude Oil 33.42 -0.4 -1.18 % Gold 274.1 +0.8 +0.29 % Copper 84.7 +0.15 +0.18 % Silver 476.5 +0.7 +0.15 % Platinum 603.5 -2.4 -0.4 % Tomorrow we might see a suckers er . Relief rally before the Bear Market continues its descent. Currently S&P Futures are positive though anything can happen between now and the open on Wall Street. Sweet Dreams Black Blade Journeyman (11/30/00; 22:21:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 42578) Spot gold at $272.30 according to Kitco @ALL Regards, J. Lois (11/30/00; 21:56:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 42577) LOOK WHAT BUSH WON vs GORE http://www.etherzone.com/henr120500.html Click the link..give up Gore! 16-penny (11/30/00; 21:34:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 42576) currency the fed is changing the currency agin BEP officials say engravers are allready at work on new designs to be released as early as 2003 and no later than 2005 megatron (11/30/00; 21:23:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 42575) gold/platinum action Did anyone else notice the peculiar action today? For the first time since maybe 98 I got the sense that someone got a 'funny' feeling and started actually buying gold. The sense of fear of being caught will show up as strange technical movements on the charts. By being 'caught' I mean short or literally in the criminal sense. This buying will spread to close insider friends of the guilty and so on.This is the true beauty of technical charting. They have nowhere to hide thier behavior. When these people start shredding paper en masse then we should see a good move.The action will be furious. Fear of jail is unbelievably powerful. Silver also did some funny moves this week. Mr Gresham (11/30/00; 21:05:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 42574) Cavan Man 42553 Are you sure Oro is not already THE Fed Chairman? I mean, this much info in one brain could reside only one other place. The Three Faces of Alan? Only guessing, and trying not to sound trite in praising our on-site friend one more time... ORO (11/30/00; 20:21:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 42573) Cavan Man - book is slow There are a gazzillion holes to fill, and things are very slow. I am trying to take gold deposit data out of D Guyat's book - which is a very interesting read altogether - and match it to other economic, financial and monetary data. This matter, however, is as clear as pea soup. The gold markets are rather opaque, particularly the "underground" portion that is off the books.An interesting revelation was the role that central banks play as custodians to large gold account holders. It parallels the role of state museums as custodians of art works and rarities rather than being their owners.Another interesting piece of information was that much of the gold is borrowed by governments and that the central banks and governments take hefty commissions for their service. Also, it seems that governments aid the top echelon of their country's wealthy in the underground markets by blocking competition in the selling and purchasing of gold. Most significant, the LBMA volumes make more sense in the world shown by D. Guyatt where there are some 1 million tonnes of gold rather than 130 thousand. The LBMA transfer volumes are not the whole story, each transfer is preceded by 4 to 10 market turnovers intraday. If volume were reported in the same way COMEX volumes are reported, the 1000 tonne turnover would look more like 5000-10000 tonnes, which is commensurate with currency volumes, as $50-100 billion daily turnover - making some 5%-10% of currency market turnover. There is another item here, where long ago I stated that "old money" takes wealth "off the table" into gold and rarities, someone pointed out - correctly - that reported market sizes leave the gold market as too small by an order of magnitude to absorb the flow I implied. If Mr Guyatt's numbers pan out, then it is not a problem, and the numbers match. Randy:Thanks, and welcome back, I'm happy to see your posts again.The actions of Deutche Bank (Banker's Trust) and HSBC (Republic) in raiding the public warehouse to the tune of some 50 tonnes corresponds to my point as to the EU bankers holding paper issued by the US banks - thus resulting in the corresponding expansion of reported explosive options increases on their books matching the US bank's and the corresponding disappearance of forwards contracts from their books at the same time. This action would have removed their delivery obligations to the US banks, while the options would be allowed to expire worthless if gold prices remained low. Thus the gold liquidity problem would be exclusively that of US banks and that of price exposure would not matter to the EU banks because of their hedging with the US banks. US banks, on the other hand, would have both liquidity (delivery commitments) and price exposure.The latter condition (unlike Howe's supposition of full cooperation between EU and US banks) is in line with the FOA/Another scenario. Phos (11/30/00; 20:04:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 42572) Comex Dec gold delivery Can anyone tell me where the gold is coming from for the 4406 Comex contracts that are supposed to get delivery? There are only 136,000 oz. eligible at Comex which totals 1360 contracts. Where does the remaining gold come from? Henri (11/30/00; 19:19:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 42571) Dutch Kings Clink, Clink Hill Billy Mitchell (11/30/00; 19:06:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 42570) ORA - Magnificent # 42546 Sir OROIt will take me a week to sweat my way through your Post # 42546. I do thank you for this offering. It is exactly what I wanted. You must understand that many of us out here without what you have to offer unless we get it here. You are most appreciated.VRHBM Cavan Man (11/30/00; 19:05:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 42569) HBM MK will advise. Thanks Hill Billy Mitchell (11/30/00; 18:56:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 42568) Excellent suggestion Sir Cavan Man Sir Cavan ManCould you give MK permission to release your telephone # and or email address to me. MK you have permission to give same info about me to Cavan Man.ThanksVRHBM Hill Billy Mitchell (11/30/00; 18:51:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 42567) THE FACTOR I just listened to a disturbing "O'Reily Factor", segment. I have felt for some time that O'Reily was such a good place to find the truth magnified.O'Reily has just exposed himself to be a complete ignoramous concerning macroeconomics. His knowledge of free markets and the need for government non-intervention in the markets could be easily contained in a thimble.After listening to him on a subject of which I have a little bit of knowledge I am overcome with a certain degree of real fear of the media for the first time. I now fear that all that O'Reily has offered in recent weeks was totally devoid of knowledge and understanding as a result of this revelation.We have often spoken on this forum about how Limbaugh will offer expertice in any area including economics regardless of any true understanding of the subject. We can now add O'Reily to the list.The only place I know where an intellectually honest discussion of economics can go forward is here on the USAGOLD Forum.Thanks MK.HBM Randy (@ The Tower) (11/30/00; 18:33:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 42566) From the "For What it is Worth Dept"... Of the 4,405 COMEX delivery notices I mentioned earlier today... 3,505 of them were issued by Deutsche Bank. HSBC issued another 493 of the total.Must depart for a bit. Cavan Man (11/30/00; 18:31:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 42565) HBM If you need a goldmeister to chat with let me know. Randy (@ The Tower) (11/30/00; 18:19:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 42564) ORO, I have just had the pleasure to read your #42546 Nice overview there, chief. Thanks for sharing the effort. John Doe (11/30/00; 18:18:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 42563) @HBM It came out of me head today. Feel free... Journeyman (11/30/00; 18:03:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 42562) Don't worry. Be happy. @ALL Mr. [Albert] Friedberg [famed Austrian economist, currencyspecialist and head of Canada's Friedberg Mercantile Group]points to the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve as thefundamental cause of the currency debacle. He notes that sincethe early 1990s, the Fed [Federal Reserve] has backed a creditexpansion policy that it has exported abroad. He also predictsthat "the crisis will widen. It will travel from Asia to Russia,Greece, Brazil. Eventually it will come back to the UnitedStates." <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/docs/news/19980110/ROBColumn/RCORC.html">-TORONTO GLOBE AND MAIL (January 10, 1998)</a> Sue Herera: ~"Is it possible that the financial crises that have been striking around the world will now strike here?"+No. Having stock prices fall to become more realistically valued isn't a financial crisis. The fall in consumer confidencis a little troubling if it causes the consumers to keep their wallets closed. And there is the possibility of a constitutional crisis. But a financial crisis is a long-shot. -Alan Blinder, Princeton Professor and former Federal Reserve Board Member. -CNBC, November 30, 2000, ~7:46PM ESTThis guy was there at the FED and part of the credit expansion. As far as his opinion, is that "good" or "bad?"Regards, Journeyman Hill Billy Mitchell (11/30/00; 18:02:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 42561) John Doe @ # 42559 Excerpt "the gutted, manipulated, bogus economy they've set in motion "Sir JD, Is the above description of the Clinton economy original with you? I must say one could not cover the subject more completely with a book.When I get my radio talk show going in the not too distant future I'll not fail to give you credit for this while I use it unreservedly.Respectfully,HBM Cavan Man (11/30/00; 17:33:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 42560) canamami Family is thinking of vacationing in and about your neighborhood this summer. Have not been successful in obtaining information over the web. Any insight from you would be helpful. MK knows how to reach me. Thanks...CM John Doe (11/30/00; 16:10:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 42559) WASHINGTON Federal regulators probe mutal funds http://www.dallasnews.com/business/227060_mb1_30bus.ART.html 11/30/2000 WASHINGTON Federal regulators are probing whether some mutual funds use improper possibly illegal techniques to boost performance at the end of a reporting period or to spruce up portfolios on the eve of semiannual reports to investors, a U.S. official said.Gene Gohlke, associate director of the Securities and Exchange Commission's Office of Compliance, Inspections and Examinations, said the agency has requested trading records from some mutual fund companies as part of investigations of the practices dubbed "portfolio pumping" and "window dressing." Academics have published warnings that such activity is occurring, he said, referring in particular to so-called portfolio pumping.InvestmentNews reported the SEC inquiry in its Nov. 27 editions.Portfolio pumping occurs when fund managers try to boost performance toward the end of the quarter or other reporting period by buying more of a stock that a fund already owns to drive up the stock's price. Funds may be tempted to pump up a portfolio's performance because managers' bonuses often are based on the year-end numbers. Funds also cite their performance in advertisements and prospectuses.When a fund company is engaged in portfolio pumping, the value of the stock in question is likely to decline at the beginning of the next reporting period.__________________________________________JD: You've really got to hand it to the Clinton administration. All through the bulk of the past eight years, this stuff is ignored, no, make that encouraged. Then, when the writing appears on the wall, they suddenly "discover" (shocked, shocked I am that gambling is going on here!) that there are "irregularities" in the market place. They benefit the whole time from the gutted, manipulated, bogus economy they've set in motion, and then conveniently deflect blame by appearing to do the "responsible thing" on their way out the door. "Oh brave new world that has such people in it..." RossL (11/30/00; 15:54:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 42558) special weekday update http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm A special weekday update of the Ponzi chart and the SDR currency equivalents chart. The Hoople (11/30/00; 15:48:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 42557) Live.. From Bubbleonia.. It's the dead fish shootout. Abby, Rukeyser, Makempoorer, they're all in the barrel and the shorts are blasting away. And now Mr. Margin Call is knocking on Mr. Bubbleonian's door, but he's hiding in the bathroom hoping he will just go away. Like in Scrooge, the night has only begun, he ain't even seen the three apparitions yet. Time for Mr. Greenspun to save them all with his liquidity laser, but wait, all he has is a pair of brown corduroy pants. Not good. Randy (@ The Tower) (11/30/00; 15:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 42556) Yesterday's COMEX numbers Mentioned in my earlier post today was that 4,405 December gold contracts comprised this First Notice Day's indication of delivery intentions. That was from an eligible pool of 8,100 December contracts remaining in open interest after yesterday's trade reduced the outstanding position by 14,200 contracts.While that December contract settlement was occurring, 10,400 new positions were added to the open interest in the February gold contract. Open interest in the Feb gold futures now stands at 75,500 contracts...each pitting one hopeful long against a short.Now ask yourself, if you were one of many bullion banks concerned for your solvency on the servicing of the physical-based gold loans brokered in the heydays of the gold carry trade, would you seize the opportunity to keep gold off of American investor's radar screens by selling COMEX contracts on an as-needed basis to depress local buying sentiment by the richest nation on Earth?Right now, the thing keeping foreign gold buyers somewhat in check is that many of their currencies have fallen farther against the dollar than gold has, resulting in higher gold prices for them at this time. We are surely the only significant nation enjoying access to gold at near-21-year lows when priced in the local currency.When the "strong dollar" begins to stumble for any of a host of reasons, you will likely see an international rotation out of dollars as the dominant reserve asset--an action that was simply not practicable prior to the recent advent of the euro along with the counterpart trend to employ gold assets marked to market as the best international management practice for such gold reserve assets.But alas, most Americans seem to be asleep at the wheel, numbed by the Wall Street media blitz and the inevitable obsession (lost perspective) that is fostered over recent years. RossL (11/30/00; 15:44:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 42555) Conspiracy? While I agree that there is some sort of NWO global conspiracy, I hesitate to believe that somehow they have been granted supernatural powers and all-knowing wisdom. More likely it is fashioned like an organized crime syndicate where individuals run their own little empires and play by the rules lest they be pulled back in line or else. Martin Armstrong. Edmund Safra. JFK.Some other USAGOLD poster expressed a similar opinion here once before, but I don't remember who it was. AUtistic (11/30/00; 15:33:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 42554) RE: Steve H---#42552 Really? I've been talking that for acouple of weeks@ work. Most people just look at me weird. I think there is little question that this whole election bs is the chance to let the markets tank, & who's to blame? " These silly people just couldn't make up their minds." (Very even race) Actually, since its just about a tie, neither one should advance to the white house, just keep slick in there. ??????????????????? Cavan Man (11/30/00; 15:09:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 42553) ORO I think and wish you'd make a great FED Chairman. Where's the book (I remember)? Thanks...CM SteveH (11/30/00; 14:45:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 42552) Nahhh, couldn't be true I just was wondering. Do you think maybe this election thing is being stretched just to take the heat off the properly blameable persons for the stock market debacle so that the vote-thing is the apparent blame but not the real blame? Nahhhh!??? Hill Billy Mitchell (11/30/00; 14:38:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 42551) I agree with all three of you Several years ago my youngest daughter after listening to me and her mother argue for a while interrupted with this, "Well, I agree with both of you." Of course what she wanted was to bring the 'discussion to a halt and was quite effective.That is not my purpose. Let the discussion continue! I agree with the following statements.Journeyman # 42539 - ..."all this talk of a weakening dollar, repatriation, current accounts deficits, etc., lead me to believe the move to bring the 'strong dollar' down is afoot. Such a move wouldn't have to include the US PTB--maybe FOA's group??--but I have an intuition that it DOES..."Mr Gresham # 42541 - ..."Second-guessing TPTB is a big part of what we're here for, isn't it?"justamereBear # 42544 - ..."If there is a conspiracy, it is to keep the dollar up, not bring it down"..."All three of the above are true. Depends on what leg of the manipulation cycle we are on. Of course the dollar must come down. Of course there must be a replacement reserve for world trade to proceed. The powers that be will no doubt continue to manipulate currencies and other things to their best interests even to the extent of changing directions when the larger market forces overcome them. When the tidal wave comes they will attempt to ride the wave, not overcome it. The day of the Euro is coming and the death of the dollar is near. The cause and effect will not be nearly so transparent as the reality of the irresistable force.Respectfully,HBMPS: I have always considered the phrase,"keep your powder dry to refer to the holding of physical rather than paper metals. Someone correct me if I am wrong. If you ever see a post by me concerning dry powder that is what I will be referring to. Journeyman (11/30/00; 14:27:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 42550) Moral Hazard goes mainstream @ORO, justaMere, ALL - There are currency problems in Turkey, Indonesia and Argentina. Will these play into current problems and cause the FED to ease? -Ron Insanna Yes. In fact there is evidence the whole of Asia may have a mild replay of what happened two or three years ago and there is a good chance Greenspan will ease a lot sooner than people think, perhaps as soon as December. -Stan Jonas FIMAT USA. After Jonas went off-screen, one CNBC reporter said that they were already talking about this on the trading floor and traders already had a name for it: They're calling it the "Greenspan put." -CNBC November 30, 2000, ~3:46PMRegards, Journeyman ORO (11/30/2000; 14:21:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 42549) Journeyman, SteveH - PPT and strong dollar The European side has the cards, the flows are bound to reverse even without the ECB work on raising Euro rates and selling dollars. The PPT action in gold and in the financial markets is just enough to keep things afloat, but that amount of credit injection is at once insufficient to save the markets and the banks altogether and too much to avoid financial asset explosions through the inflation of the money markets. This time is different - the money will flow outwards, not stay in place.The media's "sudden" awareness of the dollar loss of altitude is obviously related to a "plan". The organization, dissemination, and airing of policy by TPTB is much stronger on the US Democrat side and the EU socialist side than on the Republican and EU pro capital side (no one in Europe is for free markets). This currency shift being a political matter with EU socialists at the top, means that the US side has capitulated after the elections, having shifted from a socialist friendly Democrat system to a probably conservatively shaded system less prone to cooperation (e.g. Kyoto protocol on institutionalizing the looting of the US in return for political favor towards Europe from the less developed countries that are untrusting of the EU former colonists just as they are of the less direct looting by the US).I suspect that the negative reaction to the popular gas tax protests in Europe will undo some of the socialists in power. I don't expect to see a "free market" parties get elected, but at least a slight move to the conservative side is likely. I don't think TPTB care much for that, as it would reveal the split among them. The unified front on the socialist side is at odds with the commercial privilege side (see government attacks on bank secrecy, etc. which are needed by the commercial people in order to exercise power over the politicos through the normal channels of bribes and cushy jobs). The old union of the socialists and the big money people looks very shaky and they are taking rather public pot shots at each other. This may turn ugly, particularly with some big money siding with the socialists (see Goldman's Corzine sp?). da2g (11/30/2000; 14:10:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 42548) ORO 42546 Wow. Excellent post.I must say that I usually enjoy reading your thoughts and admire your insight tremendously. I have probably received more useful economic education from you than from any studies that I had in college. However this post, in my mind, is particularly noteworthy for its clarity, timeliness, and usefulness. Perhaps a HOF nomination is in order?Keep up the good work. Journeyman (11/30/2000; 13:59:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 42547) Re: Bringing the dollar down @ORO, TG/FOA, justamereBear, ALL Hi justamere!Your points are well taken. Still, there is often effort to talk a currency up or down, often involving coordinated efforts (including ceremonial buying or selling of currencies by central banks) by many different players.I agree "bringing the strong dollar down" is extremely dangerous under the current circumstances -- but it has to happen at some point. Though neither is attractive, better when you're at 10,000 feet than when you've reached the stratosphere! Maybe TPTB are being responsible??Regards,Journeyman ORO (11/30/2000; 13:36:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 42546) HBM Rate Inversion Euro and dollar "currency war" are part of the reasoning behind Fed actions. I proposed that the Euro's emergence as the debt denominating currency of choice since 1999, would cause the Euro volumes on the international markets to explode while dollars become exceedingly scarce due to a lack of fresh borrowing in dollars abroad. The Euro has moved from 20% of new transnational debt issue in its legacy currencies, to some 75%. The result has been a complete halt to growth in dollar money supply within the international arena. External elements to the international market are drawn upon to supply the missing dollars needed by indebted economies to both pay down debt and pay for oil. These dollars are sought through the sale of exports to US consumers and the elimination of imports from dollar denominated suppliers hence the poor international sales of the US based multinationals. Europe, in the meantime, has undergone an export boom driven by the excess of Euro on the international markets, as most new debt and maturing dollar debt rollovers are in Euro (being a debt currency it can only be created by new indebtedness).The distorted pricing of the dollar that has resulted from this is making the exporters to the US extremely aggressive and the low pricing has brought about a boom in US consumer purchases of foreign goods. The volumes are so massive that the freight system, as reflected in the Baltic Freight Index of 11 transcontinental shipping lines, is now at record highs and is more than double the value at 1998. International shippers are straining for capacity and have started to order new ships from places such as Korea and Poland. The restraint of physical trade volumes made possible through technology savings in inventory management and supply chain streamlining, is done and the last improvements were actually done last year. Since short-term funds are used to finance inventory, raising them would cause inventory to drop soon after. As the Fed raised interest rates once inventories were starting to build particularly as spot shortages in a broad array of producer goods (communications chips, construction materials, specialized labor and other items) brought about a tendency to hoard them at exactly the wrong time (when prices are rising) - the holders of inventory were pressed to sell it. This caused a crash in the prices of those producer goods that had accumulated in inventory over the last few months as inventories were slashed and the markets supplied by this dumping. That is the only real economic effect of the rate "tightening" by the Fed. The effects are late to arrive and are temporary. Once inventory is emptied, the long-term supply problems would reappear. In the meantime, this causes the following (1) as spot shortages brought prices up and caused speculative inventory buildups and double ordering, the buyers lost profit margins, as sellers gained profit margins. (2) As the Fed raised rates, inventory accumulation dropped and then reversed, (3) The buyers lost capital to drops in the value of their inventory, and the suppliers lost margin and sales volumes as their current supply was competing with their prior supply now exiting inventory. As the stock market values attest, the result has been destruction of profit on both supply and demand sides as the supply chain to the consumer lost profitability, first closer to the consumer, then going backwards through the supply chain. The result is a disincentive to investment in the whole of the goods and services supply chain. This will ultimately result in inventory bottoming out just when the lack of investment restricts supply again. The rate hike today will induce a price rise tomorrow.The Fed has succeeded in inducing a slow down in prices at the producer level and a price tumble in some items. Oil dishoarding in the refineries both as a response to higher rates and as a response to higher oil prices is the only element, aside from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve "sales", putting a lid on oil prices. The apparent success in "fighting inflation", is therefore a temporary phenomenon. It does, however, make for good copy and international public relations.The Fed is fighting the demands for liquidity coming from abroad by attempting to curtail supply of dollars to the international markets; this by forcing inventory emptying much of which is imported. Loan rollovers from old dollar loans to Euro require access to dollars and restricting the supply prevents loans from being switched to Euro loans. This is intended to prevent the loss of future demand for dollars for debt repayment, as the international borrower's preference for Euro loans is scuttled he will roll-over more of the existing dollar loans.The Euro group is closing on this by the sale of their dollar reserves. This allows some relief to the dollar debtors, who are then induced to cover the dollar loans and replace them with Euro loans. The ECB absorbs the Euro created by the loans through this same action of selling dollars. The kicker here is the capital market flows. The low Euro rates, which match the EU corporate profit profile, have made US investments much more attractive and brought back in many of the dollars exported through our incredible trade deficit. The ECB's lowest rate is still 3.75%, while the equivalent Fed rate is 6%. At the bottom (coinciding with oil prices bottoming in Q2 99), these rates were 1.5% and 4%, respectively. The spread dropped from 2.5% to 2.25%.Thus short term money is driven to remain in the US, but the US can not maintain the driving force because of the damage to corporate profitability the high short rates are inducing. Long term spreads have dropped even more heavily, from near 2% to under 0.5% on government paper. That is not much of an inducement to buy. Even an EU bank using overnight funds at 3.75% to hold 10 year treasuries at 5.5% is hard pressed, since the transaction leaves less than a 1.5% spread. Short term funds that the Fed has pushed up will keep inducing flows into the US only so long as profitability here remains superior. Needless to say, the Fed action has collapsed the profit margins of the whole of US industry services as well as goods local as well as importing (inventory effects) and exporting (dollar bubble effects) which is now at the point of reversing the foreign flows into the US as the lack of profitability is reducing both the value of equity and corporate debt. The inversion of the yield curve itself has the following local effects:(1) Pushing borrowers to turn short term debt into long term debt through home equity loans and mortgage refinancing.(2) Preventing banks from using Fed source short term funds instead of market funds thus absorbing short term money into bank accounts and money funds. There, the funds remain in shorter term debt which is used to finance the purchase of longer term debt. Mortgages and corporate debt are at 2% and 3% spreads to government debt and are 1-2% above Fed rates, thus this is not a restricting factor on longer term borrowing. Had the rate been raised above the market rates (mortgages and corporate debt rates), we could say the Fed was "tightening" in the sense of restricting borrowing. But it has not done so and shows no intention of doing so.(3) Because of (2) this has the international effect of preventing bank funds from moving out of the US, and through this effect on the lack of dollars abroad, pushes the dollar up and lowers our import bill. This helps in controlling import prices (and the trade deficit), so that overall consumer price levels are restrained because of this factor. (4) Lowering rates to undo the inversion will allow bankers to borrow from the Fed to buy treasuries and high grade bonds and whole loans which would create a "gusher" of liquidity when it comes.I have noted here before that the banking sector needs heavy injections of permanent funds because its assets have fallen close to or below its liabilities. This will induce bank failures soon if not addressed. The only way the Fed can address this is through the monetization of loans and bonds, which it can't do with the current Fed funds rate because it leaves too little margin for banks to play while still allowing the money markets to expand longer term borrowing. Banks will have to have a source of funds that is cheaper than market rates in order to make a profit and avoid insolvency. The Fed will lower rates as a result of this imperative to keep the banks alive. The end of the inventory effects induced by the Fed tightening will soon be completely over on all sides local inventory, import inventory, oil inventory, retail inventory - are all going to turn direction into fresh accumulation as global volumes of trade have hit against the bottle necks in the following areas: oil supply (capacity is not really strained yet in the Gulf, but it is elsewhere), refining capacity, oil transport capacity, natural gas supply and especially transport, import transportation, production capacity abroad for non-durables and low value durables imported to the US particularly specialized labor in Korea, Mexico, Singapore, Ireland, etc , construction materials, heavy engineering project capacity for drilling and shipping equipment, insurance, and much more.The Fed's step down on the interest rate brake will end what little inventory dishoarding can still be obtained and would cause a nearly immediate resumption of accumulation at least for sectors where inventories are at bare bones levels. When this happens, prices will likely move strongly.The downward shift in profitability is now turning into a reduction capital flows and will turn into flight out of the US if Fed rates remain at these levels. This is because the bulk of foreign money is in bonds, equities, and income producing real assets, not within US banks, so that whatever capital flows can be gained by the spreads in central bank funds will be completely overwhelmed by sale of investments and repatriation of funds out of the US. The supply of dollars this would create can tank the dollar on the international markets even without the Fed lowering rates. SteveH (11/30/2000; 13:31:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 42545) ORO PPT seems to be at work right now. DUCK and DOW coming off steep lows and looking like "normal" losses for the day. How drole! justamereBear (11/30/2000; 13:23:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 42544) Journeyman 42539 The Hoople 42536 j'Man Hi thereNo I personally do not think there is a conspiracy to bring down the dollar. The results of a lower dollar are likely to accellerate to an even lower dollar and all sorts of problems. Note, the US is already NOT exporting many goods, and it is my belief that this is not so much from the high dollar as the inability of many countries (consumers) to purchase at any price, so I wouldn't think that US exports would appreciate nearly as much as might be indicated by a lower dollar. Japan is a case in point. There are people dying for lack of ability to purchase basics. And, if it is happening in Japan, what about other countries? (and I have direct, hands on knowledge that this is true)The market forces to lower the dollar have been noted here before, massive debt, current account deficit, etc etc. These forces, in my opinion are now pretty well out of control. If there is a conspiracy, it is to keep the dollar up, not bring it down. But politically sensitive people soon learn to appear to be PUBLICLY moving in the direction of any force that is larger than they are. TPTB are not omnipotent, just very strong. Individual traders learn that no institution is strong enough to go head to head with the Central Bank. Central banks, at least SHOULD, know that they cannot go head to head with the market and win.It is a vicious circle, of the kind referred to in OROs, 42535. Some of beestings thoughts in this context are interesting too.The Hoople 42536 Loved it Got to run, outta here!Best Regardsj'Bear wolavka (11/30/2000; 13:00:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 42543) MISS PIGGY " When the going gets rough, you are obviously in wrong place." SHIFTY (11/30/2000; 12:27:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 42542) Jumpers ? LOOK UP ON THAT LEDGE ....ITS A BIRD...ITS A GARGOYLE...ITSAbbey Joseph Cohen$hifty Mr Gresham (11/30/2000; 11:55:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 42541) Journeyman #42539 Deluded? No, you just remember your history and what the news smells like before a sea-change, better than most.Keep it up. You save me reading a few useless smokescreen news reports and watching a dozen TV talking heads. (which I don't anyway)Second-guessing TPTB is a big part of what we're here for, isn't it? (Even if we have to hold our noses as we shadow their moves -- the PM ones anyway.) SHIFTY (11/30/2000; 11:32:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 42540) A quick check of mid day PONZI Let's look in on the NY Ponzi today.Nasdaq 2547.27 + Dow 10405.77 = 12953.04 divide by 2 = 6467.52 PonziDown 188.28 so far this week and it looks like things are just getting going.$hifty :-) Journeyman (11/30/2000; 11:32:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 42539) Bringing the dollar down @ORO, TG/FOA, ALL The "strong dollar policy" isn't viable, according to BIS, OECD, etc. - - - and common sense.It seems to me that media awareness of the "Sword of Damoclese" nature of the over-hang of foreign-held dollars was essentially nil a month ago. I submit as evidence the following clip I posted nine days ago:-The trade deficit came in at another record high of $34.26billion in September. Mark Hanes (anchor) and Kathleen Hays (bondreporter) banter: Hanes says that the trade deficit thing shouldbe watched, but it confuses him. Kathleen Hays agrees. Hanesdismisses it, commenting that "buying all that stuff fromoverseas is a sign of industrial strength isn't it?" -CNBC, 21November, 2000, ~9:16:48 AMFrom this statement by the "grand old man" anchor of morning CNBC -- and their bond reporter -- they (and the writers & researchers who put their words in their mouths), at least, didn't have a clue just 9 days ago.But now suddenly, everyone's talking about the weakening dollar, foreigners repatriating their money, the dangers of the trade deficit and current accounts deficit, etc. -- and it started just about the time of the election, if I'm not mistaken.I've watched the media enough to sometimes read when TPTB has pulled the trigger on some of their moves. This is discernable in the media by trial balloons, etc. (The grossest example was after USA Corp. and NATO stumbled into an unexpectedly stubborn Serbia and decided they would have to invade and bomb to, they believed, save face. They telegraphed this with spokesmen who actually spelled it out and said, essentially, all the pro-murder spokespeople should hit the airwaves. They did, starting the very next day! It was very impressive.)This is more subtle and thus much more well done. And I could be wrong, of course -- remember I recently predicted Gore would conceede -- but all this talk of a weakening dollar, repatriation, current accounts deficits, etc., lead me to believe the move to bring the "strong dollar" down is afoot.Such a move wouldn't have to include US PTB -- maybe FOA's group?? -- but I have an intuition that it DOES, and that Sec. of Treasury Larry Summers, despite his recent statements (they regularly lie just before such moves) is involved. This is an intuition only.Questions: Anyone else get this read, that there is a conscious, directed move to bring the dollar down? Anyone sense the US power establishment is knee deep in this move?Or am I just another deluded conspiracy nut?Regards,Journeyman wolavka (11/30/2000; 11:12:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 42538) I want the gold Today being the day, and the markets in turmoil, every single american should be asking the question??????????????????????????WHERE'S BALDWIN???????? Randy (@ The Tower) (11/30/2000; 11:00:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 42537) Join the crowd and take delivery, too! http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html Today being First Notice Day for delivery intentions with the arrival of the delivery window for the COMEX December gold futures contracts, an impressive 4,405 contracts (representing 13.7 tonnes of gold) were held up for delivery.Now, you too can join the gold rush and ask for gold delivery to your own door through our latest special online offer (see link above). Our featured "Coin of the Month" (our previous Swiss offer sold out in two weeks!) is the rare Swedish 20 Kronor gold coin featuring Oscar II, a talented ruler who was both a writer and a musician. This is the very first time Centennial has offered this hefty gold coin. Tipping the scales at an impressive 0.2593 troy ounces of fine gold content, these brilliant uncirculated specimens are veritable "manhole covers" among their brethren of European pre-1933 gold coinage.And not to be missed is our *FLASH* offer of Dutch Kings. These handsome Ten Guilder gold coins from The Netherlands feature the more rare King Willem, and will make a nice companion to the more common 10 Guilder Dutch Queens (Wilhemina) that you probably already own in your gold portfolio. They make a nice memento from the same country that brought us the lasting lesson of the Tulipmania.These uncirculated Dutch Kings are priced to move for this FLASH offer, so act quickly to buy one or buy them all--Centennial has secured a small cache of 500, and we have clientele capable of buying the whole offer should they so choose. Given all that, these coins are likely to be "Here today...gone in a FLASH!"Orders will be filled first come, first served on both offers. Feel free to mix and match! The Hoople (11/30/2000; 10:54:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 42536) Tech sale! All items 70-90% Off! Year end clearance of all those designer names you love. Dell, MSFT, H-P, Intel , they're all in the bin. Buy 1 share of Gateway at old bubbleonian prices and get 5 free! Hurry, supplies limited to 15 trillion shares. Sorry, all sales final and please, no margin money, regular funny money only.Just in! Pets.com wallpaper. Formerly stock certificates, these are great for wallpapering Fido's dog house or granny's investment club kitchen. ORO (11/30/2000; 10:39:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 42535) Journeyman - PPT PPT actions have not worked of late. The ND 100 futures buying surges are met with seemingly infinite selling. SP500 is faring much better, but index funds are forced to sell techie stocks as their weighting falls in proportion to price. The techie stocks, due to their massive use of stock option compensation are now suffering from the prospect of having to choose between four ways to meet the problem of retaining high value employees (management, marketing, research, development):1. Increase dilution of stock by repricing ESOP options downward and increasing the number of options to maintain most of the wage substitution value. This will cause a 2-4 fold increase in the rate of dilution, from 2-5% to 6-20% per year, which will have a very negative effect on the stocks going forward.2. Cash compensation instead of stock options, which will show up on the books and be detrimental to reported earnings. In this case, the underlying business may increase cash flows substantially, but reported earnings would fall, possibly into negative (or more negative) territory. Valuations will suffer accordingly.3. Hope that without replacing ESOP compensation key people will remain - rather unlikely, since "old economy" companies and their IT service outsourcers have hundreds of thousands of positions empty and offer higher cash compensation than the young companies in techland can afford.4. Reduce workforce. Since the future sales and profits of the tech company depend heavilly on current marketing and R&D, the prospect of losing these people will being about a loss in all these efforts, and a loss of future revenue. Stock price will be damaged further as a result. Items 1 and 2 will have a more noticeable effect on the smaller and younger companies that have made investments but have yet to see them mature into cash flows. Some will sell out "cheap" and some will close their doors due to the lack of funds to finish the investment phase. Furthermore, as founders are selling stock right along with the ESOP cashing in, the floats of the tech stocks are growing, thus having a disproportionate effect on the stock price as this combines with index fund selling. Expect many tech companies to land in deep discount land. Some are there already. beesting (11/30/2000; 10:28:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 42534) Theory on Currency Manipulations....and Related Subjects! A few weeks ago we had what was called an "intervention" by the mainstream press, to supposedly prop up the value of the Euro,the explanation was" four members of G-7(Japan,U.S.,England, and Canada.) bought Euro's enmasse, thereby shrinking the supply of Euro's and raising the value.Today Sir Journeyman just posted this:[Snip]<<"currency component" included in the price of stocks. The dollar was down a "penny and a half"against the euro, and the dollar was down against every currency except the pound.>>[Unsnip]Well at the time of the intervention I called it a "Manipulation" and here is my theory why:At the time of the previous "Intervention" ALL major currencies listed on the currency converter "Gained" in value in relation to the U.S. dollar.Using the common sense approach one would assume the U.S. dollar "Lost" value(or wealth).How could this possibly happen when U.S. dollars are used as the world currency?Here is one possible sceniaro:Lets use a figure of 50 billion dollars for simplicity.If the U.S. "Lost" 50 billion dollars, or 50 billion dollars of wealth, "Yes" the U.S.dollar would lose value.If the U.S. gave 50 billion dollars to the Euro Central Bank the U.S. dollar would lose value(wealth) and the Euro "ONLY" would gain value(wealth).But, that's not what's happening in these "interventions"!I think the Central Banks(mostly G-7 and G-10 and maybe G-20)are a world "Cartel" manipulating currency values.Here are the facts:The Bank for International Settlements is the Central Bank for all the other Central Banks. Although located in Switzerland, any wealth accumulated or lost at the BIS (currencies or Gold) would not show up on any countries currency value,(The BIS is separated from the Swiss banking system)[[For accounting purposes only, a separate financial "Country" in itself]] simply because the BIS uses the Gold Franc for internal accounting purposes.( 1 ounce Gold=$208 U.S.)Now Sirs Randy(TC) and ORO have explained how,many months ago, the IMF was able to manipulate the value of Gold,to U.S. dollars on a Mexican loan repayment with the help of the BIS.(See Archives???)I think what may be happening on these "Interventions" is the U.S. FED with approval from the U.S. Treasury has an account with the BIS (Numbered account only....Legal in Switzerland) and stashes or withdraws dollars whenever a need arises(or whatever type of wealth is in the account...Switzerland banking practices also allow for the storage of Gold & PM's).If this is true, and please remember all this is only speculation at this point,it could also be where a huge amount of paper Gold and Silver(short sellers) are entering the markets from, using other accounts established with Investment Banking Firms. "THESE TRANSACTIONS WOULD BE UNREPORTABLE TO ANYONE"1. This could be where the "PPT" gets it's funds!2. This could be where the FED makes the above hypothetical 50 billion dollars"Disappear" causing the U.S. dollar to lose value.3. This could be the reason the BIS wants "NO" private shareholders to exist.(Reg Howe are you reading this?)Who could ever find out if this is going on?????Please think about this.Thanks for Reading.....beesting. wolavka (11/30/2000; 10:26:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 42533) ANXIOUS AL open the flood gates cut rates come on man make my day Hill Billy Mitchell (11/30/2000; 10:23:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 42532) TWAWKI - Inversion, Oil Crisis, Constitutional Crisis, Mid-East Crisis Temperature inversion comparison:Rate spread (30yr T-Bond vs FF)1989 = 80 basis points negative1990 = 58 basis points positive1991 = 260 basis points positive1992 = 409 basis points positive1993 = 340 basis points positive1994 = 315 basis points positive1995 = 102 basis points positive1996 = 133 basis points positive1997 = 108 basis points positive1998 = 20 basis points positive1999 = 86 basis points positive2000 = 25 basis points negative ** 01-01-00 thru 11-28-00Note: This inversion has averaged 54 negative basis points from 3-22-00 thru 11-28-00.ORO, I know that you do not consider this situation to be serious. I disagree. Coupling the rate inversion with the looming Oil crisis lead me to believe that we are entering into the 1979-81 economic scenario. One factor which did not enter into the equation 20 years ago which may complicate things further is the near explosive Mid-East instability. I believe that the early stages are hidden from view by the distortion of the facts by TPTB. I also believe that it is possible for things to move much more slowly than they did 20 years ago. If so it should help those who plan to exit PM's in favor of bargain prices in real estate and other durable assets.Although full inversion is no longer in place it is perilously close and could take off. Should Greenspan flood the market with money (1987 style) in order to halt the current market collapse the non-expatriation of this electronic cash coupled with the repatriation of the current foreign investment in the U.S. market will catapult the Euro into the new world reserve currency and all economic hell will break loose in the U.S.Responses requested. Please go easy on me. (grin)Very respectfully,HBM Zenidea (11/30/2000; 9:58:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 42531) Au & Ag 's Itchy trigger fingers pointing from all directions Iraq to halt oil exports From AFP 01dec00 01:45 (AEDT) IRAQ intends to halt its oil exports from midnight Baghdad time today unless companies agree to pay the US50 cent-per-barrel surcharge it has called for, the Middle East Economic Survey said. MEES said in a statement here that it understands that Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organisation (SOMO) has sent a fax to buyers saying that unless they pay the surcharge into a special account from December 1, they will lose their cargoes. wolavka (11/30/2000; 9:40:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 42530) Iraq No more shipments Sad man becomes the sandman, the cold will put you to sleep.Gold will go crazy. wolavka (11/30/2000; 9:36:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 42529) Some guy warned them at the temple. ha ha ha wolavka (11/30/2000; 9:34:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 42528) it's eating its' young margin calls are eating everything in site Hill Billy Mitchell (11/30/2000; 9:28:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 42527) Netking did you buy these options? Sir:I am reposting your # 14558 on 9/29/99 as follows:Netking (9/27/99; 5:02:24MDT - Msg ID:14558)Gold on the GoGood evening all - Some December 2000 call options @ $90 each and at a strike of $360 are looking a good thing to me.An excellent article by Marion Butler (USA Gold) 27th Sep on this site well worth serious contemplation.Above all your getting, get wisdom for she has more value than Gold.I only do this in good fun. If we can't smile at ourselves life would not be worth living. When you posted this I called a friend and asked him if he would be interested in a joint investment in the above-mentioned calls. He declined and as a result I opted not to buy the calls. Just was wondering if the calls looked good enough to you to actually purchase them.Very respectfully,HBMPS: If you prefer not to respond due to privacy concerning your financial affairs I certainly would understand. wolavka (11/30/2000; 9:08:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 42526) watch beans gonna go, need to take silver with them, 2nd time. Journeyman (11/30/2000; 8:45:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 42525) PPT?? and BIG-Float spoor @ORO, ALL CNBC's Bob Pisani explains "turnaround" that happened on the trading floor around 10:20 AM (NASDAQ from about -128 to -78, DOW from about -105 to -65) as a "ripple." Brocade Communications went from -9 to +15, and described it as "the stock everyone wanted." Also mentioned a mild statement from Abbey Joseph Cohen, the well-known bull, to buy. -CNBC, Nov. 30, 2000, ~10:32AMPPT signature??A FEW OMINOUS SIGNS BIG-FLOAT IS STIRRING: An earlier segment explained that people were repatriating their money as it came out of the NASDAQ. In addition to the fall in the value of the stock, the commentaror explained, the foreigners were also losing because of the "currency component" included in the price of stocks. The dollar was down a "penny and a half" against the euro, and the dollar was down against every currency except the pound.Regards,Journeyman Hill Billy Mitchell (11/30/2000; 8:29:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 42524) jinx44 @ # 42489 Sir Jinx, You said:"HBM---Missouri refund.I got my refund today----$2Wonder what the dead man got??"My Response:Now that was a rather astute question!!!I presume by the dead man you mean the dead man who is now "Senator Elect" of the state of Missouri.Chances are that he got no Title X refund. Remember one must have had and paid a tax liability for the year in question. More than likely the 'dead man' received enough non-taxable bennies and subsidies 'while living' though farm tax loss breaks to remove himself from this particular entitlement. Wouldn't it be straightforward for Mrs. Carnahan to make public the amount of their Title X Refund. I'll bet you that it was less than $2.00.Very respectfully,HBM SteveH (11/30/2000; 8:24:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 42523) Gold up $3.00; Euro up 1.30; Gas and oil up too hmmm. If the Duck drops 200 or more today. This will go down as Throbbing Thursday!corrected version.DaveC: noted. thanks. SteveH (11/30/2000; 8:23:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 42522) Gold up $3.00; Euro up $1.30; Gas and oil up too hmmm. If the Duck drops 200 or more today. This will go down as Throbbing Thursday! wolavka (11/30/2000; 8:20:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 42521) Dave c electronic glitch, you know , why not, I've said it a billion times, screw the pits and floor traders, go electronic. miner49er (11/30/2000; 8:18:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 42520) tedw - #42519 On this uplifting subject...I posted a couple of comments about the election, and my sneaking suspicions thereabout over the last week. If you care to take the time, check out:#42403 - 11/28#42096 - 11/24Regards,miner49er tedw (11/30/2000; 8:08:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 42519) Coup De'|Ta in the USA http://www.usagold.com I appreciate the previous post by Dennis Praeger.I listened to an interesting Radio show last night. Are the criminal activities of the present US government,(including possible gold market manipulation)so great, that they will do ANYTHING to prevent a new administration from coming in to uncover the full extent of their corruption? The last few days I have been thinking that the US Supreme Court will set the situation straight.After all, the Bush and Reagan Legacy on the Court is strong.But maybe Im wrong?I can think of several situations which might further aggravate the crisis. What if rioters destroy the ballots in Florida? Remember when Hitler burnt the Reichstag and then used it as an excuse to gain power? How about an administration that refuses to recognize a US Supreme Court decision and refuses to obey its orders? How about Janet Reno sending Storm Troopers to seize ballots away from State Officials for "the protection of the ballots".When you are dealing with CRIMINALS, there are no boundaries they will not cross. Perhaps the Republic is in more danger than I or we think. DaveC (11/30/2000; 8:08:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 42518) wolavka (11/30/2000; 6:39:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 42514) TBond pit.Specify please.I saw that the data feed to my online service was stopped for a while.What happened? Cavan Man (11/30/2000; 7:57:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 42517) The problem with Gateway???? Gateway makes a good product and the custoemr service is teriffic. The problem with Gateway is not the company although Fleckenstein insists there has been a fair amount of creative accounting going on there. Who knows? The problem with Gateway is "irrational exuberance". Earnings do matter and valuations are importtant relative to earnings!!!! Belgian (11/30/2000; 7:17:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 42516) POG and US$ Period 1985 - 1995 : POG and trade weighted exchange index of the US$ vs. major foreign currencies (DXY) :DXY, declined over a full period of 10 years from ATH = 142 to 76. ( minus 46 1/2 %). POG for the same period : 282$ ('85) low, over a 500$ high ('87) to 414$ in 2/'96. IMHO, a very,very poor TIME-correlation between POG and DXYFrom 282$ to 500$ = plus 77% ('85-'87) and 282$ to 414$ = plus 46% ('85-'96). Remarquable is the 2 times 46% ( plus and minus balance).Period 1995 - 2000 : DXY : from 76 to 118 = plus 55%POG : from 414$ (2/'96) to 253$ (9/'99) = minus 39%Time correlation, poor again...and on top a positive divergence for POG : lost only 39% against a dollarindex increase of 55%. Could this mean, we haven't seen POG's bottom yet or is POG already anticipating a dollar decline ?From top 414$ minus 55% = 187$ target ?DXY high of 118 in Fibonacci perspective :142 ('85) - 76 ('95) = 6666 x 0,618 (= golden ratio) = 40,8 + 76 ('95) = 116,8 retracement target. If we accept a small overshooting, this target could be classified as a possible retracement-top for DXY and explains the positive divergence for POG (253$). If POO would shoot to 40$ and dollar demand, increases DXY over 118...then I am afraid that POG = 187$ is still in the cards. Than the 1974 scenario with POG moving in the 100$ - 200$ zone, seems likely. NIA. Only for amusement. Black Blade (11/30/2000; 6:42:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 42515) Gold rising a bit Gold is up $1.50 off the mark. Clawing it's way out of the abyss after yesterday's thrashing by the short sellers. Pd and Pt both have hit there marks at $800 and $600 per ounce respectively. Euro looking stronger, and market look to fall hard today, especially after yesterday's after hours sell-off carnage! NASDAQ could plummet below 2600! getting very interesting. Could be some panic flight to PMs very soon. It would not surprise me one bit! I'm off to slaugter more ducks - also spied some Canadian honkers this morning - who knows. Back later. wolavka (11/30/2000; 6:39:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 42514) bond pit blew up shut down over load ha ha ha gold is next Black Blade (11/30/2000; 6:34:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 42513) Yet another potential problem - "Oil-drilling firms running short of workers" by KRIS AXTMAN, The Christian Science Monitor. MARYNEAL, Texas (November 28, 2000 1:03 p.m. EST http://www.nandotimes.com) - Bruce Williams is a guy who can talk about mud for 40 minutes without realizing that you stopped listening 20 minutes ago. Yes, mud. Drilling mud. He finds it fascinating. He even uses the word glamorous to describe his gritty profession. Meet a true Texas roughneck - a man who, for the past quarter-century, has spent his life drilling holes in the ground looking for oil. But drilling vets like Williams are hard to find these days. The U.S. oil industry has had such a long downturn that, now, when crude prices are high enough to revive exploration beneath America's own fields, it's almost impossible to find workers who know their way around a rig. The result: Companies such as Williams's employer, Ringo Drilling Co. - one of the last remaining independent drilling firms in the Abilene area - aren't able to fully capitalize on the favorable conditions of the moment. Ringo is running six rigs, but it is getting more contracts every day. It has other rigs ready to go, "but we don't have enough people to run them," says Williams. It takes 13 people to operate a drilling rig round the clock. Finding those 13 people is the No. 1 problem facing the industry right now, oil analysts say. Businesses desperate for workers are getting creative. In Oklahoma, field recruiters are waiting for parolees outside prison gates. In Alaska, oil producers are joining forces to find and train employees. And in Texas, songs play on the radio with lyrics like: "Roughnecks, come home. We're busy again." But it's uncertain if or when experienced roughnecks will return. Across the United States, a half-million oil-field-related jobs were lost since the mid-1980s - and most of those workers subsequently went into jobs that aren't subject to the boom-and-bust cycle that afflicts the oil industry. So for every oil veteran who retires or leaves the business, a lifetime of knowledge leaves with them. "I wish there was more people excited about it," says Williams, a drilling supervisor for Ringo. "You could be working in an office all day or a factory, staring at the same four walls. Working on a rig, you get to see different parts of the country, you're outside, you're your own boss. I just can't see anything wrong with that. Why other ol' boys can't see it, I don't know." In the shadow of a company drilling rig, he reaches down and grabs a handful of runoff from the mud pit. Straining it through his fingers, he explains that it is a mixture of shale, red bed and lime. Lime is what you want to see more of - it spells oil in these parts. So the draw works keeps plunging pipe collar into the earth until it reaches that magic depth. In this case, they figure 6,100 feet. One local drilling company is said to be buying all the used rigs available, simply for the men working on them...Black Blade: This is yet another serious problem. When the rush is on, there are no experienced rig workers around. Even experienced geologists have left the business over the years leaving a gaping hole in the petroleum work force. I talked to a rig worker a few months ago, yes he was recently released from prison on a second degree murder beef. He said that the recruiters are desperate and even pay bonuses for referrals. Needless to say, I watched my back! Black Blade (11/30/2000; 6:24:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 42512) "COLD MAY BRING $7 GAS FUTURES" by Gloria Gonzalez, BridgeNews.NEW YORK -- Natural gas futures for January delivery are expected to top the $7 mark at the New York Mercantile Exchange if the weather turns colder next month. The December contract scored a new spot record high of $6.62 last week based on cold weather in the key Northeast consumption area during the latter half of November and on tight U.S. supplies. Northeast residents will pay about 40 percent more for their natural gas and about 25 percent more for home heating oil this winter season because of an expected 10 percent drop in Northeast temperatures and lower-than-normal inventories, according to a study released Tuesday by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration. The EIA also predicted that households heating with natural gas in the Midwest would pay about $1.97 more per thousand cubic feet this winter than last winter, citing strong demand and lower supplies. Any cold snap will make natural gas traders nervous because of the fear that higher demand for supplemental heating fuels will deplete inventories. This results in sharp price spikes, which is why brokers think a $7 price for January natural gas is attainable.Black Blade: Personally I find that analysis rather optimistic. If temperatures drop in the current NG shortage, $8.00 Mbtu at a minimum! Likely much higher as retail customers battle power providers for available gas and the NG marketers have a bidding war on their hands. DaveC (11/30/2000; 6:16:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 42511) SteveH - Warren MI Story www.detroitnews.com Steve, thanks. I grew up in the town next to Warren. I owned a couple of houses in Warren until just two years ago. It's the second largest city in MI population wise, sitting right on the north border of Detroit but in a different county.The south side is lower middle class and the north is middle class. LOTS OF GUN OWNERS.If Prosecutor Marlinga pushes this he will be in big trouble come election time. Macomb County is a VERY blue collar, red neck, area. He better be careful.The local talk radio guys,led by Mark Scott, ex-Marine and my favorite, will whip up the masses faster than you can say "criminal clinton!"Should be very interesting. The Detroit News will provide a lot of coverage on this I am sure. Black Blade (11/30/2000; 6:14:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 42510) Data Conflict Indeed! Mixed supply data offset by Iraq threat to suspend exports NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Crude oil futures prices closed higher Wednesday, as renewed concerns that Iraq may decide to suspend exports next month offset conflicting inventory data on crude and an unexpected rise in distillate stocks. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, January crude futures prices rose 41 cents to close at $34.63 a barrel. December unleaded gasoline climbed 2.77 cents to 90.68 cents a gallon, while December heating oil gained 0.81 cents to 103.18 cents a gallon. January natural gas, another commodity used for heating, slipped 2.6 cents to $6.181 per million British thermal units. See full story.Crude futures found late support from ongoing concerns in Iraq, said Jeff Mokychic, head analyst at Lehigh Valley, Pa.-based BridgetonGlobal.com, following reports that some Iraqi oil loadings are being delayed until December despite assurances earlier in the week that exports would not be halted. Iraqi Oil Minister Amir Rashid warned of consequences Wednesday if the United Nations continued to reject his country's request for a new price formula starting next month. Iraq wants customers to pay a 50-cent-per-barrel premium directly into an account outside of U.N. control. The reports of a delay in oil loadings also offset the American Petroleum Institute's unexpected climb in last week's crude stocks, Mokychic said.API, Energy Department data conflict The American Petroleum Institute said Tuesday that crude inventories, as of the week ended Nov. 24, rose 1.8 million barrels, but the Energy Department reported a decline in crude stocks of 100,000 barrels Wednesday morning. Analysts surveyed by Bridge News expected a decline of 800,000 barrels to 1.3 million barrels, on average. Distillate supplies, which include much-needed heating oil for the winter season, also rose 1.6 million barrels, the API said, and the Energy Department posted an increase of 1.7 million barrels. This compares to expectations for a decline of 400,000 barrels to 800,000 barrels. Black Blade: When government sources "cook the books" and plat fast and loose with the data, they do so in such a way that they have "plausible deniability." It their way of saying, "oops - just an honest mistake" when caught in a lie. Could this be such a case? Some in the industry have called into question whether the slight increase in supply isn't really crude and possibly heating oil destined for European shores. The bulk of the SPR oil release has already be promised to European markets and awaits at US loading terminals. Obviously this should not be counted as US inventory, but then, US government numbers are usually suspect. That is the reason that API numbers tend to be more reliable that EIA numbers. I don't say that there is a conspiracy to "cook the books" for political reasons, but one should always cast a discriminating eye toward any official government data when the numbers don't add up or reasonably compare to independent data. Hipplebeck (11/30/2000; 6:13:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 42509) surplus http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm Sure glad we are running such a surplus so we don't have to worry Cavan Man (11/30/2000; 6:09:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 42508) USAGOLD 42487 (Green Weanie Post) Many thanks to Sir Stranger for his insights and his fine sense of humor!!!! wolavka (11/30/2000; 5:55:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 42507) tax slaves Okay fed up yet.How about a refund on the presidential election campaign funds you sent these suckers on all the returns filed.I'd get on t.v. and ask for more money for the nothing that they give you.How about a valujet full of lawyers for the return flights home. SteveH (11/30/2000; 5:53:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 42506) a comment This morning on both CNN and CNBC I heard commentators saying that essentially buying on the dips in the tech sector is no longer and that it is better to sell now before the mass of people start selling for tax loss season. They said the smart money is already out. Individuals tend to hang on longer and should consider selling. Hmmm. Must be the smart shorts are positioned for more downside. SteveH (11/30/2000; 5:52:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 42505) A repost www.kitco.com An Open Letter to Democrats This time, you've gone too far. BY DENNIS PRAGER Thursday, November 30, 2000 12:01 a.m. EST You finally made a big mistake. You probably never thought you would live to see middle America and mainstream Republicans galvanized to resist your ongoing takeover of America. But like other power-hungry groups in history, you didn't know when to hold back. Your party and its standard bearer, Al Gore, have attempted to thwart an election not in the quiet of the night ( as in 1960 ) but in daylight, before the cameras of the world. And finally we have begun to resist. Most of us have never attended a political demonstration. Most of us are not particularly political, preferring work, family, sports, and communal associations to political activism. But now we are angry. By golly, even Bob Dole is angry. Republicans are actually organizing demonstrations. Such activism is so rare that "conservative activist" is an oxymoron. But for the time being you have changed that. Call it the Chad Revolt. In fact, it is thanks to your changing ballot-counting rules, your emphasis on hand counts in only those Florida districts you dominate, your invalidation of military ballots, your sending of Jesse Jackson to rouse race-based anger and of Alan Dershowitz to smear Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris, that many of us have decided, finally, to fight back. We have watched in silence as you have undermined our children's schools, taking more and more money to pay for union members who teach our children less and less. We have watched in silence as you have taken over our once-great universities, as you have substituted political correctness for pursuit of truth. We have watched radical students in university after university shout down the few conservatives ever invited to speak on campus--while liberal college presidents and deans defend this censorship of speech. We have watched in silence as the fires of racial hatred and anger have been repeatedly stoked by "civil rights leaders" such as Al Sharpton and Kweisi Mfume. Most recently we saw the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People run an ad on American television associating George W. Bush with the lynching of James Byrd. This ad was perhaps the most venomous political ad ever shown on American television, yet no liberal or Democrat offered a condemnation. We have watched in silence as organization after organization has been taken over by liberal and Democratic activists--from the American Bar Association, to the League of Women Voters, to the American Library Association, to the American Psychological Association, and on to virtually every academic association. We have watched in silence as you attempt to destroy the Boy Scouts, one of the only groups helping boys, especially inner-city boys who have no other constructive outlet for their energies. We have watched in silence as you have made war on the "masculinist" culture of the military, leaving a demoralized and less effective military in the wake of your social experimentation. We have watched in silence as you've taken over children's courts and the ranks of social workers. Many of these people believe that children are better off with no parents than with parents of a different race. They believe that children should almost always be given back to blood-related parents, even those who horribly abuse them. We have watched in silence as trial lawyers take over more and more of American life, leaving citizens prey to lawsuits they cannot defend themselves against. We watch them dominate the Democratic Party, and we watch them become judges who substitute their wills for the democratic process. We have watched in silence as the White House and its sacred rooms have been put up for sale to Democratic party donors and Hollywood stars, as the presidency has been degraded to the point where young people could ask the president of the U.S. on national television what type of underpants he wears. We watched Bill Clinton respond to that question. Likewise, we watched Mr. Gore attempt to demonstrate to the nation that a prolonged and probing kiss before a large national audience somehow dignifies the office of president. We have watched in silence as the leading news media have become indistinguishable from liberal spokespeople, to the extent that NBC news anchor Tom Brokaw actually said "we are ahead" when speaking about Democratic electoral gains on election night. We have watched in silence as the Democratic Party has relied on fomenting anger among Americans for its victories. The more that blacks are angry at whites, the more they vote Democrat. The more that Jews fear Christians, the more they vote Democrat. And the more women distrust men, the more they vote Democrat. Given all this silence in the face of your attempt to control America, it is no wonder you thought you could litigate your way to the presidency. And maybe you could. But lo and behold the rest of us are beginning to fight. Not enough yet to take back the schools or the courts or the professional organizations or the news media. But enough to let you know that we are out here. Yes, that large block of America between New York and California that in your hearts you believe to be racist, bigoted, anti-Semitic, homophobic and misogynist, is fighting back. You think that way because, in your arrogance, you confuse liberal with decent. But tens of millions of us have a different view of liberal--as increasingly nihilist. And now, thanks to Mr. Gore not having the decency to do what Richard Nixon did 40 years ago, much of America might still find you frightening, but they no longer find you intimidating. Thankfully for America, you made a big mistake. Black Blade (11/30/2000; 5:34:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 42504) Precious Metals Forecast http://www.mips1.net/MGProph.nsf/Current/8525686D002E1F95802569A40027610F November PM price forecast at the link above. PGMs still look tight as Russia does not have the metal to deliver into the market. The world's auto manufacturers have been drawing down their inventories of the white metals hoping upon hope that the prices for PGMs would drop and that by some miracle Russia would "find" some overlooked PGMs. The Japanese have to be very concerned as the Russians have been shining on their Asian neighbors with sweet talk and neverending promises about deliveries that they knew they could not bring about. The Japanese TOCOM have already defaulted on Palladium contracts once this year, and may have to do so again. If they do default again, any speculator who gets burned will only have themselves to blame. They should have learned vicariously that the Japanese managers at the TOCOM are nothing more than low life criminals who have no honor. What's that old Irish saying? "Fool me once shame you - fool me twice shame on me." The news (actually rumors) that the Chinese are sellers of silver have yet to be proven. It may well be the case as silver supplies could very well be diminishing as touted by several concerned silver bugs suggest (such as the ever vigilant Ted Butler and others), yet the silver price is held in check. The DLA silver supplies are virtually gone as per the announcement this week regarding the last remaining supplies are to go to the mint for silver eagle and special issue coin production. Gold is still under pressure in spite of a yearly supply deficit on the order of 1500 tons. The last minor gold rally was nipped in the bud by several investment bankers, trading houses, and brokers (hedge funds?) as soon as the metal rose above $270.00/oz. There appears to have been a very strong concerted effort as if on cue. Very strange indeed. Coincidence? You be the judge. - Black Blade Canuck (11/30/2000; 5:07:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 42503) "...reduce over-reliance on the US dollar.." http://asia.biz.yahoo.com/news/asian_markets/afp/article.html?s=asiafinance/news/001128/asian_markets/afp/Gold_council_urges_countries_to_reduce_over-reliance_on_US_dollar.html Buy gold...reduce USD holdings... LeSin (11/30/2000; 4:46:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 42502) TG/FOA said "SHOW TIME" or Did He Mean "SHOWS ABOUT TO END"? Time for a review of the present position. So very much is happening. Wild Currency swings. Markets break down.Gold still too cheap. (I like the buy price, for accumulating the real metal)"Political Will" - wow what change! Everywhere one turns.Things are not as before, nor will they ever be for USA & $$I invite the experts to recap and bring us up to date, please. Over to you:MR 'ANOTHER'FOA/TGAristotleMK (Host)- Thank you as always and a thank you to all the posters here, that provide such a wealth of information, new and views. Thank you one and all. "S"Wait, is the fat lady singing? No she was simply clearing her throat. However the orchestra has stopped playing!Look closely They are about to RUN for the Chairs! "S" Hard assets...Easy access (11/30/2000; 4:27:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 42501) Happy Holidays from Centennial Precious Metals and USAGOLD http://www.usagold.com/jewelry/goldjewelry.html All of us here at USAGOLD/Centennial Precious Metals extend our best wishes to you and your families for a restful and fun-filled holiday season. Thank you for making this web site possible with your gold purchases through Centennial Precious Metals. It is you who nourish these pages and we appreciate the opportunity to do business with you!We invite you to take a close look at our Christmas gold coin jewelry offerings. 'Tis the Season, fellow goldmeisters, and what better gift...than the Gift of Gold! If you think these golden beauties are something on the computer screen, they'll knock you over in person. We invite you to contact Marie Ballard and she will be happy to help you select that perfect gift that's sure to please -- bullion coin pendants, historical pendants, gold chains and accessories, all at prices you are unlikely to find at the local jewelry store.Call 800-869-5115 and ask for Marie. . . or visit the link above to get a better idea what we're talking about .......... In order to assure getting your Gift of Gold to you before Christmas, we recommend that you place your order by December 15th. wolavka (11/30/2000; 4:14:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 42500) Fate of Dollar DXH index breks trend line @ 115 today with a washout of duck and we could be on our way.Seeing some big players crying, Ha Ha, time to step on their necks and twist das boot! Topaz (11/30/2000; 3:21:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 42499) Strange contrary emotions Mulling over the scenario I've posted below and sitting here with a "royal flush" Au hand, is strange!I'm wishing/hoping it doesn't, quite happy to wait for the REAL bull thanks! Sadly though - this will cause the real BULL. wolavka (11/30/2000; 2:58:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 42498) Sheriff Shoot the dollar. Topaz (11/30/2000; 2:42:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 42497) Bleeder update (cont) Humph!! pesky womankind, can't even change a fuse in the rain, next she'll be wanting me to MOW!....right, where were we...AH!.. the Paradox!Yes, here we sit us Ozzies - our measily 3% of the "action" on the line, will the specs now move in for the kill? Short the "bleeder" to oblivion. Our RB is skint from previous interventions, the traditional ally - the US is in turmoil, and our Goldminers feverishly delivering into their hedges to salvage "something".OK, to the paradox - anything starting with A$5 is bad news for our hedged miners it seems, 510 is bad, 530 is worse and 550+ - well lets not go there!If they short the A$ to mid 40's and Au stays US$266-270 well we're "there" and some!Our intrepid miners are, as I type, walking on eggshell's and mulling over just such a scenario, having "dug" us to a 600mil surplus last month they are now faced with a CRISIS.Producer buy-back's are about to begin in earnest IMHO. wolavka (11/30/2000; 2:36:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 42496) TORA TORA TORA Usual scumbags made the wash. Who gets the commission!Now base line and remember dec 7th. Low risk. Key is entry Topaz (11/30/2000; 1:52:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 42495) "Bleeder" update Boy-is this plot thickening!Yesterday we all were provided with the "great" news here in Oz that our current account for October (?) was a SURPLUS of 600 million dollars. (the market was expecting a 600 mil defecit) As you can imagine champagne corks popped and back-slapping began in earnest. The bleeder obliged with a 1/2 cent uptick and all was well with the world.Today saw the release of Nett Foreign Debt figures...and they're shockers.NFD is a tick under 300 Billion and 25% came in the last quarter. ie: $15,000/Ozzie. YUK! 49% of GDP, Double YUK!Now dems shortin numbers in my book and here we have the Au paradox! -Family beckons - back soon. SteveH (11/30/2000; 0:36:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 42494) I'm not so sure about putting that on hold Gun owner held in death Man accused of illegal sale in Warren jail killing November 29, 2000 BY KIM NORTH SHINE FREE PRESS STAFF WRITER Terry Walker was nearly 50 miles from the Warren City Jail the night a drug suspect smuggled in a gun and killed Warren Police Detective Christopher Wouters, but authorities say Walker, as owner of the weapon, is to blame for the killing. During his arraignment Tuesday in Warren's 37th District Court, Walker, 49, was charged with involuntary manslaughter. He is accused of failing to legally transfer ownership of his 9mm semiautomatic. He was also arraigned on two weapons charges. Judge Walter Jakubowski read the counts that accused Walker of "unlawfully killing Wouters ...by failing to fully divest himself of the weapon." Under the law, when a gun is transferred, be it sold, loaned or given away, the new owner must register the weapon in his or her name. The former owner must make sure that is done. Walker apparently didn't when he sold the gun five years ago, but that hardly rises to the level of manslaughter, his family said. Walker, a restaurant cook from Capac in Michigan's Thumb, was held in lieu of posting a $250,000 cash bond. When he wasn't standing before Jakubowski, he buried his face in his handcuffed hands. There's no proof that Walker knew or met Ljeka Juncaj, the 29-year-old drug suspect who killed Wouters, but he nonetheless is culpable, said Eric Kaiser, chief trial attorney for the Macomb County Prosecutor's Office. It's also unlikely that Walker sold the gun to Juncaj, Kaiser said. But somehow, the chrome-plated gun landed in the hands of Juncaj, who smuggled it, in his pants, into the Warren police booking room after his Oct. 11 arrest. After killing Wouters, a 19-year veteran and 42-year-old father of three, Juncaj fatally shot himself in the head while struggling with another officer. "It's not relevant if he knew him. He put the weapon into the stream of use, so he is responsible," Kaiser said. "If I have a stick of dynamite in a paper bag and I hand it to you, it might be eight people later before something happens. But it doesn't matter, the damage has been done." Walker's sister, Kay Fitch of Capac said police and prosecutors are desperate for someone to blame. An internal investigation by Warren police revealed their officers forgot to search Juncaj. "He sold the gun to a man in Capac. He trusted he would do the right thing," Fitch said. In addition to one count of involuntary manslaughter, prosecutors brought an alternative charge: felon in possession of a firearm. Because Walker was sentenced to probation in August for felony embezzlement from his employer, he should not have owned a gun. With the alternative charge, a jury -- if the case should make it to trial -- will have the option of convicting Walker of involuntary manslaughter, a 15-year felony, or of felon in possession, a 5-year felony. If they convict him of both charges , the judge is expected to sentence him based on the more serious crime. Walker is also facing a felony firearms charge, which carries a mandatory 2-year penalty, upon conviction. He has requested a court-appointed attorney. His preliminary examination is set for Dec. 7. Macomb County Prosecutor Carl Marlinga said earlier that he wanted to bring charges to send a message to gun owners that they will be held responsible if their weapons are used to commit crimes. "Owning a gun is an awesome responsibility and with it comes the duty to transfer ownership," Kaiser said. Fitch said her brother, the son of the late Lewis Walker, Capac's police chief for 17 years, would agree. But he could not force the buyer to complete the paperwork. "We feel for the police officer's family," she said. "But Terry would not sell to someone like this drug dealer. Someone else did." Contact KIM NORTH SHINE at 810-469-8085 or kshine@freepress.com. ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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