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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/30/1999 All times are U.S. Mountain Time View Yesterday's Discussion. FOA (4/30/99; 23:30:04MDT - Msg ID:5426) Reply JA (4/30/99; 0:02:50MDT - Msg ID:5365)FOAHello JA, I see your point. Much of what I have said is in the context of a much larger point. That is, that gold never did become a commodity just because the dollar was taken off the gold standard. It's used as a currency to buy "credibility", influence events and provide financing for speculative investments. Much in the same way as companies use their stock as currency, so do governments use gold! Say a company knew of a major break thru that would eventually increase it's stock value many times. Then, say they offered you that stock to purchase your natural resources at what appears to be a ridiculous price. All of your piers think you are nuts to take the offer, until the company stock explodes in price. Then it looks as if your sale was appropriate! This scenario happens every day, yet, the stock isn't called a currency and the deal isn't looked upon as a conspiracy. My point is that some people still look at gold as a currency that is so undervalued it's ridiculous. They accept it with the (inside?) knowledge that the dollar is going to plunge. Not because politicians will force it down, but because politicians have forced it up for so long. The true conspiracy was in the dollar reserve standard, not gold. The world often values things wrongly, because people as a group invest using their present life experiences as a guide. They learn using a continuation of "present trends" established during their short existence, instead of allowing the real results of history to teach them. The present lawsuit by mine stock owners is a good example. It's not about gold, but about getting their money back because they invested using the wrong "interpretation" about gold. They did not think it would be managed as a currency, because they thought it was a commodity! Now, as the gold currency is sought after by many, as a replacement for a failing dollar, they will find themselves wrong again. Will they then bring legal powers to bear as gold soars from manipulation by the buying public?thanks FOA Julia (4/30/99; 23:27:51MDT - Msg ID:5425) Ageless Al - So glad you enjoyed it.Julia Julia (4/30/99; 23:24:31MDT - Msg ID:5424) Thanks To Stranger, msg 5241, AEL, msg 5235, Jon, msg 5230 and Aristotle, msg 5229 - Thank you all for taking the time to respond to my msg 5226. It is a busy time around this house with baseball practices and /or baseball games almost every night. It seems I have to find time in the wee hours of the morning (here) to write. Aristotle - I appreciated your simple answer on M1, M2 and M3 very much. Is one a more important indicator than another? Thankyou.Stranger - Thankyou for sharing the importance of M3. I'm still not sure if M3 is a more important indicator than the M1 or M2. Can you shed some light on this?AEL - Glad to know there's another wholistic thinker out there. Thanks for your comments on Y2k.Jon - We'll watch this y2k together.Julia Voyager (4/30/99; 22:57:17MDT - Msg ID:5423) Beowulf Welcome to the Forum. I am also an admirer of Rush. When I first started to listen, I was delighted to find someone who could express many of my feelings and expose liberalism for what it truly is. I was also interested in the advertising by a gold company on his program and bought my first gold coins (Eagles) from them. I knew nearly nothing about gold coins at the time and relied on their advise. However, they soon changed to a more persuasive mode to be investing in very expensive gold coins and coin sets. At that time I new absolutely nothing about the subject and my defense mechanism's went into high gear. I was not about to "invest" that kind of money in something I did not understand. At this round table there is much to be learned everyday.Michael - I am also an admirer of William Bennet. His book The Death of Outrage is on my list to read. Al Fulchino (4/30/99; 22:39:06MDT - Msg ID:5422) (No Subject) My Bruins just won in double OT and the Patriots just nixed the Conn. deal. So I guess I have to keep my tickets.What a silly comment right? When I sit and read the posts here and then read them again, I have to really put things in perspective. Those sports teams had a place in my life as my boys had/have an interest in sports, which is natural of course. Now I am at a point where I must lead them into manhood and my daughter to womanhood (all while my wife tries to lead me...lol). Gold has a place now in my life. It started in the seventies when gold was making its run. I did some research, tried to engourage my Dad to get involved with PM's, to no avail, but I watched. Now I am the Dad. Now I must pay attention. I cruise around on the net. I thankfully discovered this haven.I was originally going to comment on those that responded to my questions earlier, Tomcat, Aristotle and Stranger. You all taught me today. Thank you. I am not in a position to teach any of you. I certainly wish I was. Time however might just show me something in the future that will be worth something to all of you. I will watch for that. And I will share in return.I sense that FOA is in the forum ready to post more of his thoughts if he hasn't already.I stand in the forum, my name and face shown...listening...prepared for my families future, financially, morally I hope and for y2k...prepared to be your friend in return...-Al FOA (4/30/99; 22:35:57MDT - Msg ID:5421) Euro? http://www.iht.com/IHT/TODAY/FRI/FIN/think.2.html Paris, Friday, April 30, 1999 Euro's Decline Is No Cause for Worry FOA (4/30/99; 22:33:18MDT - Msg ID:5420) Reply USAGOLD (04/30/99; 10:08:12MDT - Msg ID:5389)Insights.. FOAMichael, Hello again! I'll reprint the item you committed on:"This points to the odd circumstances that require America to free up gold through the IMF so they can benefit. Whereas, the ECB has but to only let the price rise! When one puts on a political thinking cap, that statement does say a lot! Why else would the ECB establish a precedent of routinely "marking to the market" their gold (and the gold of the Euro System banks also). Then add to that your remark of:"becomes clear that this is a very risky business and that they are being asked to sacrifice theirgold to defend another country's currency."Suddenly, we see who's gold was really at risk, all along! Are we in the last days of the dollar, as the US agrees to politically drive gold higher to benefit the IMF? And by extention, world dollar reserves as expressed in dollar debt! Will the US be forced to drive it's own dollar down against gold in an attempt to save it's reserve status? Dynamic times, indeed! FOA FOA (4/30/99; 22:10:57MDT - Msg ID:5419) "to your safe return"! High Density (04/30/99; 11:22:37MDT - Msg ID:5393)"Soon I must depart this table and continue the age old toil I have committed myself to: liberating the yellow metal from its entombment. But I will do so now with a zest!"Hello HD, While digging for metal, do not forget to mine the USAGOLD forum for knowledge. Let us know where you go, the trail traveled and what was learned? Thank You FOA FOA (4/30/99; 21:59:59MDT - Msg ID:5418) Gold ALL, I am watching Comex gold trading now, because this should be the place where local (US based) funds attempt to reduce their exposure to any future rise in gold (perceived or other wise). Private investment funds, that have raised capitol through any form of gold short securities, may be asked to expose their "risk". The full group of investment entities may also be expanded to include "any" other parties that have dealings or actual exposure to these funds that are short. In essence, every major player in the gold market could be looking for a way to "neutralize" their books to scrutiny. Even though your exposure may have come from the unregulated part of the OTC world gold market, if one is "hedged long" on a "politically acceptable" exchange, then your position is "politically not at risk"! The books stay closed. So why watch Comex, open interest? If a certain political faction suddenly changed direction and wanted to revalue gold as an asset to lend money against, the fasted way to do it is to drive currency traders into the paper gold traded on comex. When looked at in this light, gold takes on a very different appearance than the commodity we thought it was. Think about it and perhaps we can discuss this further. If you notice, on Thursday, Comex gold traded app.. 45,000 contracts and rose $3.00+. Yet the OI dropped 11,000+. Today, a friday, some 60,000 (estimated) contracts were traded and it rose $.50. This general trend should continue, in that every time there is a major closing of speculative positions, the next day should show high volume. The major players are taking advantage of shorts closing and buying "insurance". Over the next months, OI should increase greatly! We will watch and learn. FOA FOA (4/30/99; 21:57:13MDT - Msg ID:5417) Reply The Stranger (04/30/99; 07:20:53MDT - Msg ID:5379)FOAI confess, I was originally put off by your posts. I thought your and Another's writing style was unnecessarily cryptic and even pseudo-mystical. I am quickly coming to recognize your insight and appreciate your contributions to the dialogue. If misery loves company, so does delight. Yes, we do watch this market together....as friends.Stranger, Another writes the way he does because he is not interested in teaching. He wants others to think, consider and conclude (right or wrong) for themselves. We will never be allowed to prove him right or wrong, rather "time will prove all things" as "events" will be your teacher! That concept, my friend is a favorite of his. When we consider it, which is better, to "follow in the footsteps of giants" or " learn to leave your own impressions upon the ground we walk"? Indeed, .....as friends, we watch this new gold market together" FOA Al Fulchino (4/30/99; 21:34:20MDT - Msg ID:5416) Julia Beautiful. Thank you. - Al Julia (4/30/99; 21:28:16MDT - Msg ID:5415) Ageless I received this e-mail today from my husband who had received it from a friend, who had received it from......... you get the picture. I pass it along to all here. Like gold, it is something of substance and value to those who appreciate it.What We Learn Through Our Ages:I ve learned that I like my teacher because she crieswhen we sing Silent Night . Age 6I ve learned that our dog doesn t want to eat my broccoli either.Age 7I ve learned that when I wave to people in the country, they stop what they are doing and wave back. Age 9I ve learned that just when I get my room the way I likeit, Mom makes me clean it up again. Age 12I ve learned that if you want to cheer yourself up, youshould try cheering someone else up. Age 14I ve learned that although it's hard to admit it, I msecretly glad my parents are strict with me. Age 15I ve learned that silent company is often more healing than words of advice. Age 24I ve learned that brushing my child s hair is one oflife's great pleasures. Age 26I ve learned that wherever I go, the world's worstdrivers have followed me there. Age 29I ve learned that if someone says something unkind about me, I must live so that no one will believe it. Age 39I ve learned that there are people who love you dearlybut just don t know how to show it. Age 41I ve learned that you can make someone s day by simply sending them a little note. Age 44I ve learned that the greater a person s sense of guilt,the greater his or her need to cast blame on others. Age 46I ve learned that children and grandparents are natural allies. Age 47I ve learned that no matter what happens, or how bad itseems today, life does go on, and it will be better tomorrow. Age 48I ve learned that singing Amazing Grace can lift myspirits for hours. Age 49I ve learned that motel mattresses are better on the side away from the phone. Age 50I ve learned that you can tell a lot about a man by theway he handles these three things: a rainy day, lost luggage, and tangled Christmas tree lights. Age 52I ve learned that keeping a vegetable garden is worth amedicine cabinet full of pills. Age 52I ve learned that regardless of your relationship withyour parents, you miss them terribly after they die. Age 53I ve learned that making a living is not the same thingas making a life. Age 58I ve learned that if you want to do something positivefor your children, work to improve your marriage. Age 61I ve learned that life sometimes gives you a second chance. Age 62I ve learned that you shouldn t go through life with a catchers mitt on both hands. You need to be able to throw somethingback. Age 64I ve learned that if you pursue happiness, it will elude you. But if you focus on your family, the needs of others, your work, meeting new people, and doing the very best you can,happiness will find you. Age 65I ve learned that whenever I decide something withkindness, I usually make the right decision. Age 66I ve learned that everyone can use a prayer. Age 72I ve learned that it pays to believe in miracles. Andto tell the truth, I ve seen several. Age 75I ve learned that even when I have pains, I don t haveto be one. Age 82I ve learned that every day you should reach out andtouch someone. People love that human touch - holding hands, a warmhug, or just a friendly pat on the back. Age 85I ve learned that I still have a lot to learn. Age 92I ve learned that you should pass this on to someone you care about. Sometimes they just need a little something to make themsmile. Ageless.Julia SteveH (4/30/99; 20:05:19MDT - Msg ID:5414) Momentum picking up... www.goldminingoutlook.com CNBC, next, we hope Moneyline. This just in from above link (Kaplan):The current outlook for gold and gold shares is STRONGLY BULLISH (SIGNIFICANTLY BULLISH for North American gold shares) due to the following factors, in order of importance: 1) the volatility in the U.S. financial markets, including several in what will surely be a long series of hedge fund failures, which will spur a small but critical and inevitably growing mass of investors to seek out alternative places to put their money; 2) the successful retesting and recapture of the long-term triple bottom in the XAU, demonstrating that skeptical or non-committed investors finally decided to bail out at the bottom in late August 1998; 3) an accelerating worldwide trend toward cutting short-term interest rates to prevent a severe recession, thus lowering the carrying cost of gold as a competitive investment and stimulating the economy without regard to its potentially inflationary implications; 4) strongly bullish traders' commitments for gold, though they have retreated significantly from recent record highs; 5) unusually bearish forecasts for precious metals and their shares by major brokerages, combined with a completely indifferent public suffused with internet mania, as is typical of the early stages of any major bull market following a long-term bear market; 6) traders' commitments in other commodities that correlate positively with gold and which are showing net commercial accumulation, in the following order, strongest first: Swiss franc, German deutschmark, Japanese yen, U.K. pound sterling, cotton #2, sugar #11, cocoa, soybeans (especially soyoil), coffee, frozen concentrated orange juice, rough rice, milk, and the CRB index; 7) significant insider buying by corporate executives of gold mining companies; 8) a recent substantial rise in long-term interest rates around the world, reflecting increased inflationary expectations and higher corporate borrowing costs, which will lead to decreased corporate earnings; 9) a recent moderate though accelerating rebound in commodities; 10) a recent worldwide trend of asset reallocation, away from high-P/E Nifty Fifty U.S. brand names into companies of any nation whose profits are growing faster than their P/E ratios; and 11) competition for the U.S. dollar from the euro as a reserve currency, likely to intensify in the future, which is important since the U.S. dollar has a historically strong negative correlation with the price of gold. THX-1138 (4/30/99; 17:42:47MDT - Msg ID:5413) CNBC Report This Morning Before I left for work this morning, I turned on CNBC to check the current Gold price. A few minutes into watching there was a report about Gold stocks and a "shortage of Gold". I Couldn't believe they used the G word and shortage in the same sentence. The first time I had ever heard that mentioned on TV. TownCrier (4/30/99; 17:32:33MDT - Msg ID:5412) US on trade war path http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_332000/332752.stm Rolling downhill and picking up speed. TownCrier (4/30/99; 17:27:25MDT - Msg ID:5411) IMM currency futures end mixed, dealings moderate http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990430/bc3.html End-of-week tea leaves (leafs?). Doesn't tell much about the future, but the tea was sure good. Gold could do no wrong. TownCrier (4/30/99; 17:03:10MDT - Msg ID:5410) Bridge NY Precious Metals Review By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge News New York--Apr 30--As palladium was bathed in a sea of red, platinum, gold andsilver all managed to end the day in positive territory. Some had expected profit-taking today after a sudden rally late inThursday's session had carried silver and gold sharply higher. However, the bigjump in the US gross domestic product, reported this morning, was supportive forthese metals, said traders. Although some economic analysts suggest that today's GDP figures show thecombination of vigorous growth and low inflation will persist, some marketplayers said that the figures "hint" at inflation. The US first quarter GDP was up 4.5%, exceeding expectations of 3.4% growthdue to very strong consumer spending. If gold manages to climb above the 40-day moving average at $290 "it couldbe very bullish" said one trader, although pointed out that it will encounterstrong resistance as it tries to reach this level. Jun gold settled up 50c at $287.80 per ounce today after edging up to $289per ounce, its highest level in 6 weeks. Many are expecting a slow start next week in precious metals with Londontraders absent Monday due to a UK bank holiday and Japan traders out during theGolden Week holidays. TOCOM is set to resume trading May 6. --Jun gold (GCM9) at $287.8, up 50c; RANGE: $289-286.8Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:http://www.crbindex.com/reviews/index.htmNo further reproduction without written permission myego33 (4/30/99; 16:17:01MDT - Msg ID:5409) Pounds As recalled from the 60's going there in B-47's there were 20 shillings to the pound and 14 pence to the shilling a crown was 5 shillings and a haypenny was half a penny also remember a half crown The Stranger (4/30/99; 15:28:40MDT - Msg ID:5408) "And the Last Shall Be First" Bob Pisani reported on CNBC this afternoon that gold and silver mining stocks were the #1 performing stock group in U. S. markets this week. Until now, the media insulted us by their indifference. (I'll bet Pisani rechecked his numbers twice before going on the air). Get used to it Bobby. In a few weeks, we will be more than just performer number one. We will beTOPIC NUMBER ONE! The Stranger (4/30/99; 15:05:30MDT - Msg ID:5407) Richard By now, you have probably found beesting's excellent explanation of British currency posted earlier today (#5396). I wish I had been as thorough and accurate as he, but at least you get a complete answer.Incidently, I'll bet all of those terms are in your dictionary. Your friend,Stranger Goldfly (4/30/99; 14:40:48MDT - Msg ID:5406) Gee whiz, no wonder the empire collapsed.... http://www.britishadventures.com/britmony.htm Richard, found this. The fourth paragraph gets down to it.GF TownCrier (4/30/99; 14:32:49MDT - Msg ID:5405) Oil mixed as analysts fear sharp price correction http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19990430/news/current/futures.htx?source=blq/yhoo&dist=srch Silly boys, the rising price IS the correction. TownCrier (4/30/99; 14:26:37MDT - Msg ID:5404) Treasurys Crushed http://cbs.marketwatch.com/archive/19990430/news/current/bonds.htx?source=blq/yhoo&dist=yhoo An avalanche of selling from West Coast fund TownCrier (4/30/99; 14:12:46MDT - Msg ID:5403) Brazil intl reserves dip $247 mln to $42.415 bln http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990430/52.html Yet another in a continuing string of forex operations. Richard, Oregon (4/30/99; 14:03:46MDT - Msg ID:5402) Stranger - More Info Stranger - thanks for the British money info but I have just a little more: 1)A Pound(aka "quid") = approx $1.60US; 2)A Pence = 100th of a Pound; sooo . . . 3)A Shilling (aka "bob") is no longer used BUT what DID it use to be? and finally 4)A Crown equals __? If you can help again, thanks! CoBra(too) (4/30/99; 13:38:34MDT - Msg ID:5401) a response and apology to a AIP (as I presume) kindred spirit .... Feeling the urge of overall information on the favorite subject I am a reader of all info on gold as I can come across and, of course I drop in on Kitco as well. Admitting, that I knew there was a handle CoBra at Kitco, that's why mine (I like mines -golden) is CoBra(too). For me it always was my password to certain internet sites I've subscribed to and as memory fades while getting on in life I used the abbreviation of two gold co's I'm directly involved with. @ CoBra @ Kitco no imitation nor plagiate intended. BTW CoBra - what's a ZEBRA?No bad feelings, I hope! ...26 sizes larger than an *A*BRA! TownCrier (4/30/99; 13:31:30MDT - Msg ID:5400) FWN Closing N.Y. Metals New York-April 30-FWN--Justice Litle,futures and options specialist with Commodity ResourceCorp, noted that gold has been somewhat surprising thisweek, with the June futures rising from a low Tuesday of$281.60 to a high today of $289 that was the strongest levelsince March 16. It did this even though early in the week,U.K., U.S. and Japanese officials called for sales ofInternational Monetary Reserves to the tune of 10 millionounces, more than the market had been expecting. "The last couple of days, it has responded by pickingup $5 or $6," said Litle. "When you see a bullish reactionto bearish news, that's a sign of some hidden strengththere." Some technical buy signals appeared to be touched asthe metal moved through around $287. "When you have bearish news fundamentally and you havea strong reaction, that indicates a couple of things," saidLitle. "First of all, a lot of the bearish news was alreadypriced into the market. And the fact that we're seeing aresurgence in strength without any real good news coming outis a sign that the fundamentals are stronger thananticipated." Litle did note gold backed down from today's high,however, on likely profit taking. The June contract finishedwith a 50-cent gain for the day at $287.80. Support for June gold was put around $282 to $283,while resistance was pegged around $290.[The following is included in today's report because a knighthad asked about the PGM's--T.C.] Palladium prices finishedsharply lower here today, tumbling after worries thatRussia's export program is in full swing. Fund selling and ageneral lack of buying was cited. June palladium at one point fell to $295, a loss of$92--or a shade under 24%--from the high of $387 that wasreached just nine days ago. Losses began last week on a report from Swiss Customsshowing that some Russian platinum group metals had madetheir way into Europe recently, then continued on news thatDegussa had developed an auto catalyst that uses platinuminstead of palladium. The decline continued around themiddle of this week when a Russian Norilsk Nickel officialconceded that "massive" quantities of metal had beenexported recently to beat a 5% export tax that went intoeffect on Wednesday. (c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtmlNo further reproduction without written permission from FWN. TownCrier (4/30/99; 13:05:44MDT - Msg ID:5399) U.S. Treasury bond falls more than two points http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990430/5k.html No buyers for future U.S. currency...essentially. USAGOLD (04/30/99; 11:58:49MDT - Msg ID:5398) Scallion Interview I want to thank client Roberto for passing this along. I post simply as a matter of interest for those who follow Gordon Michael Scallion.----------------------TRANSCRIPT OF GMS' APPEARANCE ON THE ROSEANNE SHOW MARCH 4, 1999 Dear Mr. Scallion: Here is a transcript from your appearance on the Roseanne Show on March 4, 1999. Although I caught your appearances on the earlier Roseanne show and the Art Bell show, I unfortunately do not have a tape to transcribe. I intend to tape all of your appearances from now on. We look up your web site for daily news every single day as earth changes have interested us for years. Thanks. Janis Cates, Waterloo, IL. Roseanne: Now also on today's show, Todd and I have one of our very favorite people back, Gordon Michael Scallion. Did you all see that show? It's so scary. It's scary because he's like, known as the modern day Nostradamus, you know. check this out. When he appeared on my show last January 19, he told us all of this stuff was going to happen, like, okay, he predicted the death of Pope John Paul II this year, which we don't know. but, anyway, traumatic earth changes that will change the North American continent as we know it, not to mention killing millions of people, probably like us. And we got such a tremendous response. Some people thought he was crazy and everything, but two things already came true! Check this out, he said that earthquakes would start to rock the glove, specifically in South America and that would signal the start of big quakes here in California. So then on January 25, a 6.0 quake rocked Colombia, killing 878 and injuring more than 3,000. And he also said that World War III was going to begin in Turkey, starting as a Holy War. So, check this out. On February 15, Kurdish guerrilla leader, Abdulla Oshalem was arrested and brought back to stand trial in Turkey where more than 30,000 people have already been killed in terrible fighting and as a result of Oshalem's arrest, violent protests have erupted around the world. I mean, this guy is scary. It's like, right on, you know. Now when this all happened, I wondered, what is next? So I asked Gordon back. Here he comes from Florida, where he is on vacation. Where are you? Where is he? HI! Gordon Michael Scallion: Hi, Roseanne. R: Hi, Gordon. GMS: Hi, Roseanne. R: He's on the monitor there. Well, now we're really scared. GMS: Things are starting to happen, aren't they? R: Yeah. Things are starting to happen. What else can you... you've got some new stuff going on in November of 1999? GMS: Later this year. November is a crucial month for two things. The first thing I see is a severe economic downturn and I believe it's going to be caused by a run on banks globally, a lot of it due to the fear of Y2K, which we spoke about the last time I was on the show. R: Right. GMS: the other thing I see is... R: So you don't think there's really going to be a Y2K problem, just the fear and dread that it might happen. GMS: There will be problems, but it's not going to be a global shutdown electronically. Third world countries will not do very well. The United States will have some intermittent shutdowns, but I do not see it being the global complete meltdown. I do see it, however, emotionally driving the markets as well as the trade deficit in this country. Those are two elements I see affecting the stock markets or all markets in November. R: What else do you have about us finding a new power source at the end of this year? GMS: That's perhaps one of the greatest things that I've seen. My background is technical, so I'm always interested in seeing things that are technical. but I believe before this year's out, we're going to see or the announcement will come of a design that they can transmit power wirelessly. In other words, without power lines, and then we'll start to see this new technology emerge because the current power grid that we now have, in November and December, is going to be shocked. We're going to have some major blackouts in this country. R: Is there anything that any of us can do to prepare ourselves for the things that are coming at the end of 1999? GMS: The best things that we can do is to prepare now as if we were going to have a hurricane or some natural disaster. It's the communities that are going to survive, people who come together. And it's more of a case of looking and re-evaluating your value systems. You can do the basic clothing and food and medicine survival, but the real survival comes with family and the family unit in your community. R: So you're saying that like we got to get it together, because if we get it together, then we're going to be able to help each other through it rather than just sitting there on top of our wads of money all by ourselves? GMS: The wads of money in the world are going to go away very soon. A good portion, more than 50% of the wealth of the world is going to dissolve by the end of this year and so money is not going to have the same value system. What will have the same value system is working in community and groups. R: So more barter, right? GMS: Barter will be very big. R: Wow. GMS: As well the basics of gold and silver and food and clothing and commodities. these things will have... R: Well, I have to tell you, I'm buying a whole, like two years' worth of food. I'm keeping it and I guess I'll not tell anyone where it is 'cause I don't want anyone to come and eat it. but maybe I'll share. Do you think I should buy more food and share. GMS: You'll share. R: Thank you for being here. Weird, scary stuff to think about. GMS: My pleasure. R: We're going to stay on top of it, too. We're going to stay on top of it, because every time something he said happens, it just freaks me out. It's amazing. He's an amazing person. All the bestRoberto ss of nep (04/30/99; 11:41:11MDT - Msg ID:5397) ramblings ..... I was weaned on soybeans between 1980-1982.I used a particular commodity trading system,Development by a Dallas based firm.Anyway, Gold has a trading cycle of between21 and 28 days duration mean 23, that goesup-down, up-down ( approx. ). The top of the1-st up-down has a mean occurrence at day 7.An interesting (BUY) Entry technique goes this way:1) The High, on the day of the trading cycle Low must be exceeded.2) Price must then drop below the low of the preceding day.3) Price must then close above the preceding days close and the current days open.The above must occur within 9 days.1) occurred 26 Apr (the Low was 281.60)2) has not yet occurred( as at my last look today)now 2) and 3) may occur on the same day.The technique seems to work for many commodities,And is good about 80% of the time, sometimes by theTime the conditions are met, the entire UP move is completeSo watch out.So, now that I know that 2 of you posters out thereAre former brokers, Have you ever heard of the above before ?I heard today of another conspiracy book"The New World Order and The Throne of the Antichrist"written by one Professor O'Driscoll, of the University of Toronto,who apparently disappeared between Jan-Feb 1997 after the book was published.Has anyone heard of this book ? beesting (04/30/99; 11:35:43MDT - Msg ID:5396) @ Richard,Oregon-better late than never. From World Coins book 1999 Edition:On English Monetary System: (until 1970)4 Farthings= 1 penny12 Pence= 1 Shilling2 Shillings= 1 Florin5 Shillings= 1 crown20 Shillings= 1 Pound (Sovereign)I don't think Farthings are used anymore same as U.S. 1 Mill used to be 10 Mill=1 penny in U.S. money.1 Penny BRONZE coin =1.6 U.S. Cents2 Pence Bronze coin =3.2 U.S. Cents5 Pence Copper-nickel=8 U.S. Cents(like a U.S.Nickel)10 Pence Copper-Nickel=16 U.S. Cents(like U.S. dime)Shilling no longer used.20 Pence Copper-nickel=32 U.S. cents(no U.S. equivalent coin)Florin no longer used.50 Pence Copper-Nickel=80 U.S.Cents(like a U.S.half dollar)Crown no longer used.1 Pound=$1.60 U.S.---Coins were minted, but similar to U.S. recent dollar coin issues are probably not in wide circulation.(fiat paper from here on up with bigger numbers representing more value)U.S.conversion rates fluctuate so the 1 Pound=$1.60 U.S. rate(that Stranger supplied)was used.Hope this makes the new English movies easier to understand.It won't help to much with pre 1970 movies.With over 190 countries in the World each with their own monetary system do you see how confusing travel can be? Banks can convert currencies quickly with the aid of computers,but try to travel to third world countries,where CASH is king and do it on your own with only a battery powered calculator. Thats why I believe strongly in a Worldwide uniform bimetalic(Gold-Silver)floating system.(It would take the power-wealth away from the banking cartel and distribute power-wealth rightfully to the ones that created the wealth.IMHO thats what the original U.S. Constitution implied.FWIW.......beesting Al Fulchino (04/30/99; 11:27:46MDT - Msg ID:5395) Nice People Michael, I just took some time off from work and called yourcompany for some information. I wanted to tell you what you likely already know. You have very pleasant people working for you.All: thanks for your posts in the last two days. All are very informative and appreciated <Aristotle, sorry for the blisters may I recommend bagbalm? :) Also your post was NOT for naught it was excellent and I am sure that there are lurkers who also will find it very useful.I wil have some time later this evening to post response to all who wrote. FOA and Another: I have not read enough of your posts and have a history here to have the same respect that others here are according the two of you. However, I can plainly see that it will grow...my respect that is.... thank you both for taking the time to post here and the same goes to the others like Aristotle, Stranger and others...gotta get back to business sorry if I left out the other names..the last grain of sand has fallen for me today.Al Al Fulchino (04/30/99; 11:26:30MDT - Msg ID:5394) Nice People Michael, I just took some time off from work and called yourcompany for some information. I wanted to tell you what you likely already know. You have very pleasant people working for you.All: thanks for your posts in the last two days. All are very informative and appreciated <Aristotle, sorry for the blisters may I recommend bagbalm? :) Also your post was NOT for naught it was excellent and I am sure that there are lurkers who also will find it very useful.I wil have some time later this evening to post response to all who wrote. FOA and Another: I have not read enough of your posts and have a history here to have the same respect that others here are according the two of you. However, I can plainly see that it will grow...my respect that is.... thank you both for taking the time to post here and the same goes to the others like Aristotle, Stranger and others...gotta get back to business sorry if I left out the other names..the last grain of sand has fallen for me today.Al High Density (04/30/99; 11:22:37MDT - Msg ID:5393) IT HAS BEGUN... I too have been watching.And listening to my fellow knights.To the wisest of the knights, who must include FOA and ANOTHER and KOSARES, I yield to your wisdom, mine insight could never see so distant with such clarity. Soon I must depart this table and continue the age old toil I have committed myself to: liberating the yellow metal from its entombment. But I will do so now with a zest!I salute the future. It has begun. Tomcat (04/30/99; 11:21:30MDT - Msg ID:5392) The Stranger and more on deflation You wrote:"Now, here is a real deflation scenario: prices rise BEFORE y2k because of stockpiling. Then y2k turns out to be a big yawn, and, for awhile, those who stockpiled don't need to go to the store. For a time, at least,maybe that would reduce prices, but I don't think it will work out that way, and, in any case, it isn't what you are predicting."I agree that this could happen and it would be deflationary. It doesn't appear to be happening either in industry or with consumers. I also agree that it will not work out this way.My major point had to do the the computerization of the Just In Time Inventory system. There is not way to prove that this system will collapse. My claim is that it is threatened enough be take caution and to prepare. USAGOLD (04/30/99; 10:48:05MDT - Msg ID:5391) Correction: I used the wrong word in my previous post. Where it reads: "increasingly difficult for the world's central bank's to defend the dollar with their gold (through loans) as itbecomes clear that this is a very risky business and that they are being asked to sacrifice their gold to defendanother country's currency."Please change the word "sacrifice" to "risk".Thanks. MK The Stranger (04/30/99; 10:18:19MDT - Msg ID:5390) One More Thought on Y2K If anybody thinks Y2K is going to cause systemic damage to the economy, why not buy the one investment that will trounce all others: non-perishable food. Your family will be safe from hunger, and you may find yourself selling peas at $50/can.As for me, I will take my chances. USAGOLD (04/30/99; 10:08:12MDT - Msg ID:5389) Insights.. FOAIf Another lets go of any other little insights like this:"This points to the odd circumstances that require America to free up gold through the IMF so they can benefit. Whereas, the ECB has but to only letthe price rise! Another pointed this out to me and it does make the situation more clear."Please let us know!The only way the U.S. can defend the dollar with gold readily is to talk the IMF into selling? I think this is right and it might be the last chance for the gold shorts to re-fuel before gold's adversaries head into the financial desert. I don't think Congress would authorize U.S. Treasury gold sales under current circumstances. There is quite a pro-gold group now in the Senate and House nurtured in America's grass roots. No such constituency existed in the 1970s -- the last time there were IMF/U.S. Treasury gold sales. Interesting too, that Alan Greenspan years ago was one of the people responsible for educating a whole generation of Americans as to the value of gold as money. I've been around long enough to remember when he was a featured speaker from time to time at gatherings of gold advocates. His writings on the merits of hard yellow metal have circulated among its advocates for as long as I can remember. Another idea that has been rattling around in my mind with all the hulabaloo about gold sales recently is that it will become increasingly difficult for the world's central bank's to defend the dollar with their gold (through loans) as it becomes clear that this is a very risky business and that they are being asked to sacrifice their gold to defend another country's currency. And current mine production is pretty much spoken for -- much of it sold way in advance. (AngloGold -- the world's largest producer -- announced today that they had sold almost two years production forward.)Dare I say that, in short, it seems like the anti-gold group is running out of options?Before I get too enthusiastic about the whole idea, I am going to sit back, enjoy the unfolding Spring, and watch what happens. I am content to continue accumlating those hefty, little gold coins at bargain basement prices of which many of us have become so fond and watch financial history take its course here at the FORUM. In the company of my fellow travellers, knights and ladies -- the members of this Table Round.........let the ideas and conversation fill this hall. The Stranger (04/30/99; 09:57:25MDT - Msg ID:5388) Tomcat As they say, differing opinions make a market. To me, deflation is too little money chasing too many goods. Isn't this precisely the opposite of what would happen if we had an accomodative Fed plus production and distribution bottlenecks caused by malfunctioning technology? When that produce starts to rot, vegetables will become scarce and prices will skyrocket. This is very much like the inflation caused by inefficiencies of the Soviet system, is it not? Likewise, when gas stations are down to those last gallons, why on earth would they LOWER their prices? And why would other industries be any different? Off hand, I can't think of a single item that would be produced into overabundance under your scenario, except money.Now, here is a real deflation scenario: prices rise BEFORE y2k because of stockpiling. Then y2k turns out to be a big yawn, and, for awhile, those who stockpiled don't need to go to the store. For a time, at least, maybe that would reduce prices, but I don't think it will work out that way, and, in any case, it isn't what you are predicting. USAGOLD (04/30/99; 09:19:56MDT - Msg ID:5387) Today's Gold Market Update MARKET UPDATE (4/30/99): Gold registered a small gain in today's early going after yesterday's break out late in the session which pushed spot gold past the $285 resistance level and into fresh territory. Yesterday's break came after the release of open interest data which showed the highest number ever for a gold futures contract -- news which touched off a wave of short covering. Also, sparking the short covering were reports from Washington that both the Democratic administration and Republican Congress were interested in regulating hedge funds both here and abroad. Rumors have abounded in the gold market that hedge funds, like the troubled Long Term Capital Management, are heavily involved in the "gold carry-trade" wherein the funds borrow gold at a very low interest rate, sell it and then use the proceeds for highly leveraged speculative investments. In an ancillary development Senate Banking Committee chairman James Leach questioned the bailout of LTCM by a consortium of banks and investment houses as a possible violation of anti-trust laws. Any unraveling of LTCM could include an unraveling of a rumored gold loan position of between 300 and 1000 tons which in turn could cause a wild scramble for physical gold in the open market. Standard Charter Bank of London has now moved the resistance level for gold to the $288-$290 area. Bridge News reports an interesting statement by South Africa's Anglogold which blames gold's malaise not on talk of IMF and Swiss sales but on the banking and investment sector that "seems to ignore any and all good news on gold and which follows a policy of recommending selling on every improvement in the gold price, no matter how modest." Crude oil moved still higher this morning to its highest level since December of 1997 ($18.83/bbl June). The gold market is also reacting to the fact that the major G-7 nations were unable to come to agreement on IMF gold sales earlier in the week and the realization that any sales by Switzerland would be extended over a ten year period so as to no hurt the overall market. That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. Have a nice weekend. Please go to our ORDER FORM or call Marie at 1-800-869-5115 for a Free Copy of News & Views -- our widely read monthly newsletter -- and introductory packet on gold ownership. TownCrier (04/30/99; 09:18:28MDT - Msg ID:5386) CURRENCIES: Yet more dollars; Dollarisation commentary by S. Brittan http://www.ft.com/hippocampus/qbeeaa.htm Registration required for this site, but you've already done that, right?The in's and out's of dollarisation TownCrier (04/30/99; 09:02:08MDT - Msg ID:5385) Former Brazil bank chief to testify http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_332000/332080.stm This situation in Brazil exemplifies the reason that those with information, namely CB-types, tend to remain obscure and secretive.This link gives background on Brazil's currency crisis, though not on the elements of scandal, which became apparent later in time.http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/the_economy/newsid_270000/270363.stm(or while at the first story's page, click on the "Relevant Stories" 02 Feb 99 link on the right side margin) Tomcat (04/30/99; 08:52:11MDT - Msg ID:5384) The Stranger and the subject of deflation and y2k In your post your asked:"If Y2k were to disrupt manufacturing and distribution, wouldn't some products become scarcer and,therefore, more expensive? Wouldn't the Fed respond to any economic weakness with monetary stimuli?Why would one expect deflation from this scenario?"Yes, some products would be come scarce and more expensive; Just like in the depression when all products did not lower in price. Yes the fed would respond with and inflationary printing of money. Let me explain my view of deflation. Please feel free to criticize because they are my personal views of how I see the economy work.Deflation is a result of slow moving and accumulating inventories. Inventories could be products, produce or manpower. As inventories over-accumulate firms lower prices and cut profits and lay of workers who buy less of the inventories. Competing firms with normal inventories see their sales drop and inventories rise and they get sucked into the dwindling spiral. Stock prices drop and investment capital, which normally would provided a buffer for the losses, become more scarce and finally companies fail increasing inventories even more by dumping their remain products on the market at fire-sale prices. Bankruptcies spread and the dwindling spiral accelerates.This is not the opposite of inflation where money inventories are too high and can be eliminated with the stroke of a pen by raising interest rates. The fed, who is really an inflation creator and an inflation fighter, is somewhat helpless because they have no mean of instantly disposing of large inventories. In the past, it is believed by some, that only war could mobilize a country fast enough to eat up those inventories.So what does the Fed do? The only thing they know how to do; they print money. If the inventory dwindling spiral has not gone out of control the money stimulation acts as a temporary fix. Many weak companies that should have failed are saved but their presence makes the next deflationary cycle worse because debt is now higher.OK. Now enter Y2k. If in Dec 99 and Jan 2000 many computers mess up then the Just In Time Inventory system comes to an immediate halt. The world inventory system is computer based. Inventories start to sit. Produce rots. Y2k is an inventory nightmare. Thus, y2k is a deflation creator.Whats the solution. I don't know of a solution. However, to stem the flood of bankrupcies the Fed will print money like their is no tomorrow. Eventually, the deflationary corpses will be covered with inflationary corpses. Inflation will be the failed solution to a deflationary nightmare. Before the inflation hits, however, currency will be king if only for a matter of months. To get basics of survival many will sell their BMWs for small amounts of currency or gold. Gold and silver, being a currency, will also be in demand. For a short while, holders of currency and and gold will be bedfellows. Eventually the currency will be printed in such volume that only gold and silver and highly needed items will be the items of value. CoBra(too) (04/30/99; 08:48:15MDT - Msg ID:5383) Options, futures, gold mines, bullion Stranger I agree with your recent post on above subject and would personally like to add, that there are a lot of junior explorers out there, with absurdly low prices, suggesting their going out of business alltogether. Some are surviving quite nicely and never stopped exploring & developing reserves - see Argentina or Sutton as recent examples. A number of todays pennymines in the right areas may well become the next Argentina Gold's. In the meantime'subject to careful research, they may be bought as options or futures, probably even cheaper and they only expire in case of bankruptcy, rare because they are usually equity financed at this stage. TownCrier (04/30/99; 08:32:55MDT - Msg ID:5382) Surprise GDP gain may speed Fed rate hike http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990430/ou.html America goes on a shopping spree while analysts bite their nails. TownCrier (04/30/99; 08:25:33MDT - Msg ID:5381) U.S. Treasuries fall further, funds said selling http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990430/pd.html Hedge funds selling "future dollars"...Seems to jive with what we're seeing here at the forum for the obvious reason. FOA (04/30/99; 07:33:13MDT - Msg ID:5380) OI on Comex! Michael, I think the Open Interest gained some 4,000+ again. Some entities may be trying to lay off their exposure, quickly? Also, we must remember, the ECB now "marks to the market" their gold reserves (every three months or so?) and the US cannot because it belongs to the treasury (not the Federal Reserve). This points to the odd circumstances that require America to free up gold through the IMF so they can benefit. Whereas, the ECB has but to only let the price rise! Another pointed this out to me and it does make the situation more clear. I must go now,, FOA The Stranger (04/30/99; 07:20:53MDT - Msg ID:5379) FOA I confess, I was originally put off by your posts. I thought your and Another's writing style was unecessarily cryptic and even pseudo-mystical. I am quickly coming to recognize your insight and appreciate your contributions to the dialogue. If misery loves company, so does delight. Yes, we do watch this market together....as friends. FOA (04/30/99; 07:11:28MDT - Msg ID:5378) Gold discussion? USAGOLD #5339Michael, Something is in the works and I only hope these "maneuverings" are forced to become more transparent. Then everyone will be able to interpret these events in their own way. This is a "new gold market" with far reaching implications. I hope to be here much later ( late Atlantic Time) for some discussion and reply's to recent posts! thanks FOA FOA (04/30/99; 06:52:21MDT - Msg ID:5377) Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil producer and exporter, spearheaded the March agreement. http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990429/62.html ALL: "only one oil producer counts, only one" The political picture is changing and it will impact gold!Thursday April 29, 12:31 pm Eastern TimeBy Michael GeorgyDUBAI, April 29 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia is certain that OPEC and oil producers outside the group will fully comply with output cut pledges made under a March agreement to rescue petroleum prices, a Gulf source said on Thursday.``Saudi Arabia is sure that there will be a 100 percent compliance in May, and for the rest of the year,'' the Gulf source told Reuters.``What has to be taken into account is that there is a new spirit of cooperation among all of the countries (OPEC and non-OPEC), like Oman, Mexico and Norway. Anything that is done will be done collectively,'' added the source, who is familiar with Saudi thinking.He said Saudi Arabia did not expect any violations of the agreement, even if prices, which have shown recovery since the deal was signed, rose further.``Saudi Arabia is not very worried,'' he said, when asked if there was danger if prices rose too quickly.``We are trying to bring balance back to the market, to bring stock levels to normal levels of 1996 and 1997. We are dealing more with fundamentals,'' said the Gulf source of oil producers.June international benchmark Brent traded at $16.35 by 1300 GMT on Thursday, down five cents from Wednesday's close.The Gulf source said Saudi Arabia believes compliance in April was ``high'' but declined to give a figure, saying accurate judgment of implementation of the pact could only be made one week or so after the month ended.``Maybe there was not full compliance because of contract problems. But Saudi Arabia thinks compliance was high. There is no point in guessing now,'' he said.OPEC and other producers in March agreed to remove 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) from glutted world oil markets in a third bid to prop up prices since last year.Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil producer and exporter, spearheaded the March agreement.Violations of previous pacts undermined efforts to rescue prices, which hit 12-year lows in the months before the March agreement.Analysts have said the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) seemed to have complied with the cuts so far and would continue to do so for the short term.According to preliminary data from consultants, OPEC cut oil production by 1.35 million bpd in April after agreeing to the new limits that took effect at the start of the month. That translates into 81 percent compliance.The Gulf source rejected those assessments, saying it was impossible to accurately track all loadings from ports and make a judgment before the month in question ended.``Some people like to create doubts whatever OPEC does. They are negative. If we talk about guessing, I can guess what oil production will be two years from now,'' he said. The Stranger (04/30/99; 06:49:53MDT - Msg ID:5376) Al and Tomcat Al....Options- You can make a lot or lose it all, depending on your timing.Futures- You can make a lot or lose your gas stations, depending on your timing.Gold Mining Stocks- You can make a lot (the group has already risen 50% since last August, bullion will have to get well above $400/oz. to catch up) or you can lose a lot. No expirations means timing is far less important.Bullion- lowest risk, lowest reward. Feels great in the hand, too.Y2K- Disasters,(Pearl Harbor, Kennedy assassination, etc.), do impact the markets. But this one is widely predicted and widely prepared for. Let it season your thinking. Do not let it shape your investments.Tomcat....If Y2k were to disrupt manufacturing and distribution, wouldn't some products become scarcer and, therefore, more expensive? Wouldn't the Fed respond to any economic weakness with monetary stimuli? Why would one expect deflation from this scenario? Christine (04/30/99; 06:48:50MDT - Msg ID:5375) JA--Conspiracies http://38.201.154.103/articles/?a=1999/4/23/70143 Doctrine of International Community--by Tony BlairText of speech given by British Prime Minister Tony Blair in Chicago a week ago. He made no outlandish specific suggestions, but the whole tone and text of it sounds like One World Order to me--very bizarre I thought. Thanks for the book citation; I have heard of others, but not this one. I try not to have preconcieved ideas about conspiracies, but more and more coincidental things keep developing. I came to the internet a few months ago being moderate to slightly left moderate politically. I have been interested in gold because I believe in economic cycles and thought it was overdue for bull market several years back. Then I started noticing that every time gold would start to recover even a little, some central bank would announce that it was going to sell gold, right on the very day gold would show some life. I started saying to a few people like my brother that I thought the price of gold was being manipulated by governments, as I had watched these very "timely" CB announcements for several years. Of course, my brother said I was nuts-- he thouht I was nuts for owning gold also. I had not the foggiest idea why governments would be doing such a thing. I was very naive about governments, banking, money, and financial power only a few months ago. FOA (04/30/99; 06:45:35MDT - Msg ID:5374) The $1.5 trillion gamble http://news.bbc.co.uk/low/english/business/the_economy/newsid_331000/331877.stm ALL: This item was the short killer!"disclosure by financial institutions of any material exposure to hedge funds "AND: These are the BIG GUNS behind it! All of this started many months ago. "the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, which brought together officials from the US Treasury, the FederalReserve Bank, and the Securities and Exchange Commission, which regulates the stock market." JCTex (04/30/99; 06:07:33MDT - Msg ID:5373) SteveH these two e-mails should be of interest to you.email #1:Le Metropole members,A little excitement today in the precious metalsarena. Gold was up $3 and silver was rocking onceagain and closed 15 cents higher.Yesterday, one day after my trip to Washington to visit with Jim Saxton, Chairman of the JointEconomic Committee in the U. S. Congress, he issued this press release:April 28 - Platts - New York - 6:55 PMProposed - IMF gold sale draws US Congress Opposition"A proposal supported by the President Clinton to sell more than 10-mil oz of gold from the 103.4-mil oz held by the IMF will intensify Congressional opposition to the idea," said Jim Saxton, vice-chairman of the JointEconomic Committee of US Congress. Proceeds of the proposed sales are intended to help some of the world'spoorest nations pay their debts. "The recent statments( by President Clinton and Cabinent members ) presumingthat gold sales will definitely take place ignores thefact that the US government has made no commitment andcan do so only with Congressional approval, " Saxton said."The administration is supporting this proposal, but thereare serious bipartisan reservations. This bipartisan concern guarantees that this proposal will face toughscrutiny".The very visible and well followed gold market commentator,Andy Smith, had this to say about the press release fromhis bullion dealing, Mitsui perch:"I'M For sales, continued: 'Hell no' from Congress-enhancingIMF gold sale idea?........ vice chairman of Senate JointEconomic Committee Jim Saxton ( he was mugged by the conspiracy theorists visiting Washington yesterday ).............Le Metropole CafeAll the best,Bill MurphyLe Patrone-mail #2:Le Metropole members,I am beginning to become indignant with the press. Theyare either a bunch of mushballs or something is very, verywrong. I was just advised of the complete Jim Saxton press release,which NOT ONE wire service carried in its entirety. NOT ONE.Platts, thank goodness, gave us a partial. But, comparewhat Chairman Saxton said to what even Platts put out. Likeweeds compared to roses. ( see below )The pro IMF gold sale proposal coverage by the press is unrelenting. It goes on and on and on. A major player like Saxton, who is a heavy hitter in Congress, comes out with a statement that does not fit into "pablemville" and none of the wire services will even carry it. What is going on here? Something is rotten in the State of Denmark.GATA will not let this go on without a fight. This is anoutrage! I have to think about the best way to handle this,so perhaps I should not say too much more at this point, butI can say this.The Congressional Committee members that I met in Washingtonwant to really know all the information we can give them aboutthe gold loan situation, etc. Our team is stepping up the plate.Jim Blanchard's, Jefferson Financial Inc., has just fed exedFrank Veneroso's 1998 Gold Book to to key committe members.Frank Veneroso is the foremost authority on the gold loansituation in the world. Congress has asked me to try and helpthem get up to speed on this issue, ASAP.We have responded with swift action. We thank Brien Lundin ofJefferson Financial and Frank Veneroso for reacting to ourcall so promptly. The senior macro economist of the Joint Economic Committee wants to understand what we have to say about the danger to the banking system so that he can reportto the Banking Committee. Once they have read Frank's 1998 Gold Book, they intend to query Frank further and I am surethey will want to meet with him.Today, Jim Leech, Chairman of the Banking Committee was on TVtalking about Long Term Capital Management. GATA may have steppedinto a hornet's nest as we were down there giving them ourtake on what should be looked into. They were all ears. We havesuggested that they investigate the bullion dealers that were part of the LTCM bailout. You will be surely hearing aboutwhat Leech has to say in tomorrow's papers.By the way, the Senior Counsel of Long Term Capital Managementsaid that he was sending GATA's counsel a letter that they had noinvolvement in the gold market. That was one week ago. NO LETTERHAS SHOWN UP AT BERGER & MONTAGUE TODATE. We welcomed theirletter. The fact that it has not come has us on the warpathagain.As cafe members, you know that GATA is no "mellow yellow"outfit. Congress is listening to us and the committee membersthat we met with want to know what we can tell them aboutthe gold loan situation ASAP. That is because we have toldthem that this is a potential Savings and Loan crisis. Fora crisis to be averted, something has to be done now. Theseloans must be curtailed. The greedy Wall Street institutionsthat are creating this potential financial nightmare ( like they did with Long Term Capital Management ) mustbe put in their place.Thus, our new mission is to find someone in the press who isnot a wimp. Someone who can say, this story needs coverage."Press 54, where are you?"Enough for tonite. The following is the actual ChairmanSaxton press release:PROPOSED IMF GOLD SALES UNDERMINEIMF REFORM AND STIR GROWING BIPARTISANCONGRESSIONAL OPPOSITION-- Subsidized IMF Loan Interest Rate Stands at 3.5 Percent-- WASHINGTON, D.C. – The sizable expansion of proposed gold sales by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will intensify congressional opposition to the idea, Vice Chairman Jim Saxton of the Joint Economic Committee (JEC) said today. Over several months, advocates of gold sales have increased the proposed level of such sales from 3.5 million and 5 million ounces to 10 million ounces. According to the latest news reports, there is now a new proposal to sell over 10 million ounces of IMF gold. The gold sales would purportedly be used for debt relief, but the lack of details and transparency typical of IMF policy initiatives makes it unclear exactly what is being proposed to Congress. "The recent statements presuming that gold sales will definitely take place ignores the fact that the U.S. government has made no commitment and can do so only with congressional approval," Saxton said. "The Administration is supporting this proposal, but there are serious bipartisan reservations in both the House and the Senate. This bipartisan concern guarantees that this proposal will face tough congressional scrutiny. Majority Leader Dick Armey has asked me and my staff at the JEC 'to carefully examine the economic and financial issues involved,' and our review is already well underway. "IMF gold sales are not the proverbial free lunch that some may think. The gold held by the IMF must be reviewed in the context of IMF finances and loan policies. The IMF itself has acknowledged that its gold holdings add strength to its balance sheet. With about 25 percent of its outstanding credits owed by Russia, it is reasonable to ask whether further erosion of the IMF's balance sheet now is desirable. Furthermore, other borrowers, apart from HIPC, may seek debt relief through expanded gold sales in the future. "There are a number of available alternatives to gold sales. An end to the IMF's policy of deeply subsidized interest rates is one alternative that should be given a high priority. The IMF's current standard loan interest rate of 3.5 percent is indefensible on economic grounds. This rate is far below the interest rates available in international financial markets to creditworthy borrowers. It is also far below the interest paid by U.S. taxpayers on their mortgages, car loans, and credit cards. "An end to IMF interest rate subsidies would provide much more resources for debt relief than would the proposed gold sales. Furthermore, if Congress were to approve the gold sales, this could be viewed as sanctioning the current IMF policy of interest rate subsidies. Instead, the IMF should be forced to explain why it insists on using inefficient, costly, and counterproductive interest rate subsidies. "In conclusion, the congressional reforms passed last year mandated increased IMF transparency and use of market interest rates in IMF bailouts. It is not yet clear whether the IMF intends to fully comply with these reforms, and Congress must ensure that its actions facilitate IMF compliance with U.S. law, " Saxton said. For more information on the IMF, please visit the JEC website at www.house/gov/jec/. All the best,Bill MurphyLe Patron of this noisy Cafe SteveH (04/30/99; 04:50:06MDT - Msg ID:5372) June gold now... $287.00.Watched Moneyline on my way to the pillow last night. I waited for a mention of gold, gold stocks, or even commodities (except Exxon) or precious metals. Nada, nada, nada. Not one mention. They talked of Amazon.com, they discussed Exxon and other DOW stocks holding the DOW up. They didn't mention that the XAU is up, what? 45% since August. Impartial they are not. In fact, they so well avoided the above that it was obvious that the subject is taboo. For a subject to be taboo means there is a gag order. Now why would anyone want to put a gag order on a market segment that just rose 45%?It was ok to say that the DOW was up 16% for the year, that NASDAQ was up ??% for the year but the XAU up 45% since August, the VSE or the VSE mining index is up 10% or better for the year, or the Australian dollar is rising in value against the dollar. Nada. "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines" -- Ralph Waldo Emerson Gandalf the White (04/30/99; 03:51:55MDT - Msg ID:5371) JA's revelation ! " --- JRRTolkien just wrote a very long FAIRYTALE." WHAT??? --- Did you hear that Aragorn III ?<;-) Tomcat (04/30/99; 03:20:17MDT - Msg ID:5370) Al Fulchino and financial strategies Dear Al, Your last post really caught my interest. You asked about financial strategies. I would like to share my strategy with you with the hope that others do the same. I realized from your post that one of my major reasons for coming to this forum was to expand the depth of my strategy which I consider somewhat strong in some points but very shallow otherwise.I believe that Y2k will be an event to reckon with and plan for. I am a cross between a Polly and a Doomer. I believe that Y2k will impact the US and all countries negatively but, relatively speaking, it will impact the US the least and, just before the digits hits the fan, that the dollar will be the currency of choice. If there is a run on the banks I believe there will be a run for the dollar more that other currencies. I belive the following sequence will occur.Phase 1: People will start to get hurt in the market on individual stocks due to y2k or for other reasons. This will be a period of volatility and transition in the market. I believe we are entering this phase now. Oil and gold start to rise and large institutions starting to change their investment strategy. Longers swithching to the short side in the market and shorters in gold trying, to cover and if possible to go long. This period will be filled with a lot of good y2k news. Most firms and utilities will show they are quite ready. The ones that aren't ready will be the problem and they will remain silent. Phase 2: The market falls, recovers, falls, recovers but over all the market begins to tank. A minority investors switch to Treasury notes, CBs and a few into US currency. This amplifies the current international confusion as the confidence in the US starts to erode. Y2k become more of an issue because by now it is starting to leak out that many companies will not be ready. Business owners dealing with currency begin to hold their currency and instead deposit checks from their saving accounts. This is not a currency bank run, it is a withholding of currency that never gets deposited.Phase 3: Nov/Dec of 99. Many firms that need insurance to operate find that they cannot renew, due to y2k, and confusion is added to confusion. Firms that are not y2k ready start to have major problems with their softwear. They announce the will close the last week in Dec and open up in mid Jan. Some ships are called to port and some oil tankers will take a break from the high seas. Foreign firms, utilities, and govts see that they have not made it y2k-wise. Foriegn oil firms are in trouble and are candidate to be gobbled up by compliant and healthy oil giants. The price of oil is high now despite a predict loss of demand. The flight to the dollar starts despite the falling market. Foriegn bank runs occur and that shakes up some of the investors in the US. Bank runs in the US may occur in this phase but I can not say for sure. More confusion but the US is relatively strong.During Phase 2 and 3 I believe that there will be a demand for inflated US currency. POG relative to foriegn currencies will rise but in the US the demand for dollar currency and gold will happen together.To prepare for this I have my money currently spread between gold, pre 65 silver, US currency, and a savings account with Schwab which allows me to sell short when I want to. Phase 4: After Jan 2000 I see that possibility of the rise of a New Financial Order where the US will reign. The dollar will be weaker but the US will still reign. During this time demand for oil will drop and its availability might drop as well. Their will be deflationary pressures as companies need cash and go bust and this will be mixed with inflationary pressures as the printinting presses roll to keep a troubled system alive. I do not predict what will occur in this phase other than say the US will come out stronger than other countries. It could be a recession for the US and a depression for other countries. I could be a depression for the US and a deeper depression elsewhere. It won't be until March of 2000 that we know much. In the US I do believe that there will be electricity and working utilities at about the 90-95% level.I hold gold and silver. I do not hold gold and silver because I expect to use it as currency. I hold it to preserve wealth through very bad times. If rough times hit I do not want anyone to even know I have gold and silver let alone bring it into the market place and expose my ownership! I keep a supply of currency for day to day transactions. Yes, inflation might devalue this currency but this will be offset in the rise in the POG. I also have a supply of items that will great for barter. These will hold their value. This is my plan and it is how I came to this forum. I am learning through FOA and Another that I have not taken inflation into account. I don't even understand FOA's inflation theory and I am very weak in this area. I do not understand the relationship of the dollar to the euro or even gold or oil. Yes, I have a surface understanding but be assured, I do not think on my own in these areas. I parrot other peoples ideas because I lack real understanding. For these reasons I come, like you, trying to learn about the strategies of others and how I can stregthen my own plan. Tomcat (4/30/99; 1:56:32MDT - Msg ID:5369) JA and "Who is in power?" Thank you for your three enlightening posts. I have been a believer in Carrol Quigley's view for some time. Your summary of his views is a good one. The point I was making earlier was this. I appears that our govt is going after the chaps who sit at the top of financial system. It looks as if the govt is going after the very people Mr. Q says are the ones that hold the power. This seems inconsistant with Mr. Q's view and thus I asked: Who is in power? I must be missing something very big here. Aristotle (4/30/99; 1:38:03MDT - Msg ID:5368) Al Fulchino (and others)--I have unnecessary blisters on my fingers! Too much typing inspired by your original question, all of which is of no use to you now that I see your follow up. I sure hope Plato got some mileage out of it.Arizona Hiker should have responded to you directly rather than responding to me. It was your question, after all. As Arizona points out additional ways to use options as an investment tool, I assure you there are a host of other combinations of basic and exotic use. Essentially, how many tasks can you acomplish with a lever, a pulley, an inclined plane, a rope and a wheel? Such are commodities, stocks, cash, treasuries, futures, options, derivatives. When you know how each works, you can put them to use if you discern them to be to your immediate advantage. I know these tools, and I know the PERSONAL task I have at hand. The tools suited to one man's endeavor can't be expected to work without alteration for another.Al, you seem to know these tools well. Where I (and many others, I imagine) would come up short in an attempt to offer the assistance you seek is in the inability to grasp the uniqueness of Al Fulchino and his lifestyle, and his task at hand. Case in point: You ask about Y2K. A good point of concern, certainly. But what of Y2K? Your question/comment "I bring up options and how to handle them especially with y2k as a factor" leave us pretty wide open. What element of Y2K are you seeking to mitigate? Bank runs? Gold runs? Power outages? Social unrest? Stock mania? Stock collapse? Public indifference? Rising interest rates? Falling interest rates? Or pure pprofit potential given the most likely of the above? My guess, Al, is that as sharp as you are, you will never be as satisfied with someone else's strategy (even if designed with their perceptions of your needs in mind) as you would be with one you develop for yourself. Having read your several posts, I have full confidence in you.And please, don't anyone misunderstand my past messages...I am not one to stand at the checkout counter at a grocery store and whine that they won't accept my Gold coinage for payment. I would no sooner do that than I would whine that they won't accept a fractional portion of my land, or some of my stock certificates, or derivatives thereof. I fully know the value of dollar cash and money in general. I have no latitude to be a hackneyed rube nor a fanciful splurge. I know my business, in fact a leader in my profession, and as such I have been twice solicited by the Federal Emergency Management Agency with offers of employment this past year. I turned them down flat, as it would have been counter to my personal objectives in life.I am no different than the other knights at this round table in having a wider perspective on the world than commonly witnessed in the population at large. In the end, using all the knowledge and tools at my disposal, I work to buy the necessities and small pleasures of life, and excess cash is preserved for the future in a manner that seems most prudent and harmonious with my life's objectives. Without hesitation, my excess cash is swapped for Gold. And if there were ever a time in the past century when a single strategy could be found to best serve most people, the time is surely now, and the strategy is surely Gold. Without hesitation.Gold. Get you some. ---Aristotle(Glad to hear from you, Beowulf!) JA (4/30/99; 0:15:42MDT - Msg ID:5367) One last little story then I am off to bed. The firm I keep a futures trading account with offers a free hot line. Last night he was down on gold and was recommending a sell. Tonight he say's he was wrong and one should consider Gold's recent low as a near term bottom. What a difference a day makes. It would seem he was also mistaken about the potential for Sugar and Cocoa to move up, two commodities I am currently long in. I listen to him but don't necessarily follow his advice. He says this was one of his worst trading weeks ever and the markets must be in a transition phase. I think he is right about the transition phase part. JA (4/30/99; 0:06:01MDT - Msg ID:5366) Christine &Tomcat Christine &TomcatSeveral of your recent posts were the impetus for the following:A former Georgetown University Professor named Carroll Quigley wrote a 1,348 page book published in 1966 in which he described in detail the creation of a "secret society" by Cecil J. rodes and his companions in late 19th Century England. Quigely said concerning is knowledge of this society "I have studied it for twenty years and was permitted for two years to examine it's papers and secret records." Professor Quigley noted, the goal of these would-be imperialists included the establishment of "a world system of financial control in private hands." Once achieved, this would system would constitute the vital stepping stone enabling these few "to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole." Quigley thought the idea had great merit and therefore never termed it a conspiracy. He preferred the term "network" while fully admitting that it was secret. The network detailed became the Royal Institute of International Affairs in England and the Council on Foreign Relations in America. On page 324 of the book "Tragedy and Hope" Dr. Quigley writes: "The powers of financial capitalism had another for-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at n frequent private meetings and conferences."But then who knows maybe Professor Quigley, like JRR Tolkien, just wrote a very long fairytale. JA (4/30/99; 0:02:50MDT - Msg ID:5365) FOA FOAThanks for sharing the "The End of the Golden Age" article by John H. Makin, I found it very informative.In several of your posts you have mentioned the events impacting gold as not a conspiracy."It's not a conspiracy, JA!"Yet your description of events about to occur come across to me as if men, CB's and governments are conspiring to affect the price of gold under a guise of secrecy. I have copied several of those statements below:"Will it's price still be manipulated in Euros?" (Msg ID:5224)"This is why they want to free up and leverage the IMF gold. The other world CBs are not selling so the only way to force it out, for paper liquidity creation is through an existing IMF structure! The game continues. FOA""During the last twenty or thirty years, the public has been conditioned to think of gold as a commodity only, not a currency or money. This conditioning was so well done that when people even consider gold as a financial refuge"Phrases like "Will it's price still be manipulated," "the game continues" and "the public has been conditioned to think" all come across to me as a conspiracy if done illegally or in a way to harm or injure others.I would be interested in your comments on the above. Click Here to view yesterday's discussion.
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