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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 12/30/1999
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
View Yesterday's Discussion.
Peter Asher
(12/30/99; 23:50:47MDT - Msg ID:21883)
Elevator Guy
I long ago forgot how to calculate it but I don't believe 600 MPH creates enough tangential velocity relevent to the earth's curvature to create a perpendicular force vector anywhere near 32' per second per second.
Peter Asher
(12/30/99; 23:33:47MDT - Msg ID:21882)
Elevator Guy
They didn't have any frame of reference for kinetics, 100 years ago. This was long before E= MC squared, 12 years before Kitty Hawk, When Mongomery the California Glider builder was getting funds from his father "Humoring" his insane son.
How does their absolute ignorance of today's common knowledge, relate to what we are totally ignorant of at this moment that, will be simple truths a hundred, or even a few,years from now.
Got concepts?
Peter Asher
(12/30/99; 23:23:20MDT - Msg ID:21881)
Sometimes, when I'm talking to one of the others privatly
I find somthing that seems to warrant posting. I think the context is self evident. This is from personal conversations in the last few weeks.
>>>> The goldilocks economy appears to be selective in where it exists.
One would think that second homes and improvements would be booming with all this "Spend in Abandon"
Lady on the plane has plans to remodel her whole house but is doing nothing because she puts everthing extra in the market. Holding for retirement. Will probably build when market is no longer percieved to be rapidly rising. Assumes contiued job earnings in biotech.
Waterfront Condo Builder, Central Floriday coast, "This year, can't give them away."
Oregon Coast ocean front and ocean view land and lots: Dead market.
Yet, Lake Superior Waterfront Developer, "Business booming, as Detroit retireies sell out at Astronomical prices and build posh retirement homes and have cash left over.
There is somthing to be worked out about the meaning of this data as regards who will have purchasing power after the millinium shake out. --- I'm just cogitating at this point. <<<
elevator guy
(12/30/99; 22:59:26MDT - Msg ID:21880)
@ Peter Asher
The first fallacy of that article on flying trains is, that trains depend on traction between the driving wheels and the track, in order to sustain forward motion. Assuming there was sufficient power available to propell that much mass fast enough to create enough centrifugal force to overcome the gravity while traveling over the very gentle curvature of the earth, it would settle back down immediately, seeing how it would lose its forward motion as soon as the driven wheels got off the track.
I know that you also know this, but I just wanted to be the first to de-bunk it.
Too much time on my hands, I guess. Please indulge me, as its a new sensation.
Vox
(12/30/99; 22:58:35MDT - Msg ID:21879)
No bank runs here (yet)
FWIW I visited four bank branches in Portland OR on business on 12/28 and 12/29. Only one had the average activity and the other three were very quiet. I talked with the tellers with whom I have had several years of interaction. They all said that no one was withdrawing much if any cash and that they had had very little business this week. It was easy to tell that they were being sincere and not just giving the company line.
At the local Wal-Mart and Fred Meyers stores, there was a different story. Gas cans, flashlights, batteries, water and food were being swept up in a frenzy. Better late than never! Glad I'm not participating in that experience.
Best wishes to all for the new year! Hopefully we will meet the unknown with grace and style. And, hopefully, we will do more than survive; perhaps we can even thrive and grow wise!
Peace be with us..........Vox in deserto
elevator guy
(12/30/99; 22:50:41MDT - Msg ID:21878)
@Al Fulchino
Thanks for your reply!
Interesting couple of days/weeks ahead of us, eh?
Peter Asher
(12/30/99; 22:31:11MDT - Msg ID:21877)
And you thought we have worries
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPcap/1999-12/31/065r-123199-idx.html
>>>>> There is one natural force which must be taken into consideration when the
improvement of railroad travel is considered. This is gravitation.
Tremendous speed means the overcoming of gravitation. It will be
necessary, therefore, when we reach the really rapid schedule of 600 miles
an hour to devise some plan of preventing the cars from flying into space.
This can be done, of course, and will be done, just as all other problems
have been met and conquered in the past. <<<
Excert from a New Century article in the 1900 Washington Post.
This is a great read!!!!
Peter Asher
(12/30/99; 22:12:41MDT - Msg ID:21876)
Harris poll, as of now including my vote
How long do you expect Y2K glitches to linger?
Just the weekend
12% => 3677 votes
One to two weeks
20% => 6066 votes
About a month
18% => 5553 votes
As long as a year or more
19% => 5640 votes
I don't expect any Y2K glitches
22% => 6642 votes
Don't know
5% => 1697 votes
Current Vote Tally: 29275
elevator guy
(12/30/99; 22:10:18MDT - Msg ID:21875)
Heres my observation from So. Cal.
Sams is out of water. Gas cans disappear as soon as Home Depot gets a pallet. People are making last minute preparations. Well, duh, right?
.
But on the local news, they say banks have plenty of cash, and grocery stores are full. (Contrast this happy face report with TC's Fed repo activities, and tight money supply)
.
The news showed a local place with no problems. But the stores where I live are showing empty shelves.
.
I'm beginning to think, that if we had a riot, with marauding looters in the street, the news crews would shoot mountainous scenes, and calm rivers with little tweeting birds.
.
I guess its no surprise that TPTB are squashing any and all Y2K hysteria before it starts, by trampling the POG, and making it seem that all is well. And this may be a wise thing, because just imagine what would happen if we all ran to the bank, and took out our cash? MELTDOWN OF THE ILLUSION.
.
What is the general concensus out there in Internet land? Is your local store well stocked? Is your credit card working? (Our AMEX isnt)
Al Fulchino
(12/30/99; 22:04:46MDT - Msg ID:21874)
Elevator Guy
Exactly my point. And your are correct in adding that a computer may be made anywhere. So I wonder if they must adhere to a code, when stamping times as reference points? I can see it now, ABC NEWS goes off the air when covering the Ball Drop in NYC, all because their computers were made in countries *east* of our time zones. :)
elevator guy
(12/30/99; 21:57:21MDT - Msg ID:21873)
@Al Fulchino
I agree, Al. If a clock or embedded chip is manufactured using the time and date of the place of manufacture (Let me add here that I do not know if this is how it is done)
But anyway, it would seem that the 00 rollover would not occur, then, until the date rolls over in the counrty of origin.
There may be more to this than the black and white I'm presenting, but it seems likely, then, that for sure embedded systems made in the US wont rollover until the US does. If my time+date/manufacture origin theory is correct.
Are there any embedded chip designers out there who can shed light on this?
Another thing to remember, is that many chips are made in Taiwan, and other countries around the globe. So we may have some embedded chips or time clocks that rollover earlier than others, spreading the effect around the globe with some degree of uniformity.
Ray Patten
(12/30/99; 21:54:54MDT - Msg ID:21872)
Web sites to monitor tommorrow.
A recent article in the Wall Street Journal suggested some web sites to watch for minute to minute updates on Y2K happenings around the world...just in case CNN doesn't want to give us the whole story.
1. www.jrwhipple.com/z2k...................................
2. msnbc.com...............................................
3. www.y2k.com.............................................
4. www.y2k.gov.............................................
5. www.year2000.ca.gov/main................................
6. www.das.state.ut.us/100days/index.html..................
7. www.dir.state.tx.us/y2k.................................
8. www.iy2kcc.org..........................................
9. www.y2k.gov.nz..........................................
10. www.nerc.com...........................................
11. www.att.com/year2000...................................
12. ipnetwork.bgtmo.ip.att.net.............................
13. www.davislogic.com.....................................
14. www.onelist.com/messages/y2k...........................
The extra dots are only to fool the controling computer into leting me make a column.
I can't possibly watch all these sites, but as a concerned community of LADIES & KNIGHTS we can do it... and keep each other informed.
Happy Y2K, everyone.
canamami
(12/30/99; 21:38:16MDT - Msg ID:21871)
Y2K - Ross Perot's Suggestion
I saw Perot on Larry King some time ago. He said that if Y2K gave problems, one would just have to convince the computer that it's 1972 (same dates as 2000), and everything would be OK on a temporary basis. I ran Perot's theory by this girl who is an amateur techie, and she said it wouldn't work, because there are all sorts of implied calculations which Y2K could throw off. Y2K is a possible problem for older (and perhaps more current) mainframes, many of which are still in use, and the manner in which such mainframes "talk" to the system (I'm lost big time here). However, almost everybody's PC is fine - few Y2K problems are expected re PC's. FWIW.
Al Fulchino
(12/30/99; 21:23:20MDT - Msg ID:21870)
Thank u Netking ....but....
...maybe I have not understood you. Let me retry here. Say I set the clock at 12 AM and it isthe year 1984 Jan 2. I am in the US's Eastern Time zone. I sell this computer with its stamped date/time sensitive chip or clock to a company in Great Britain. I am not sure of the time differential, but lets say it is five hours. Would not this rollover occur in the computer five hours after the actual rollover in Great Britain? Rescpectfully submitted to u.
Netking
(12/30/99; 21:13:38MDT - Msg ID:21869)
Al Fulchino (12/30/99; 21:02:03MDT - Msg ID:21868)
Sir Al Fulchino (21868) - I believe the time zones would not be relevant in this instance buddy,
nor logical to any uniform disruption based on USA time, and then which USA time zone?
The thing that matters is the actual time itself on the clock
Al Fulchino
(12/30/99; 21:02:03MDT - Msg ID:21868)
All: Chew on this.
A large portion of the worlds computers were originally programmed here in the USA. If you were "stamping" the date on the internal clock or chip, wouldn't you be stamping a time from the US time zones?.Afterall, you would not necessarilly know where the computer would end up. Suffice to say that, *if" there are y2k problems in time zones to the east of the States, wouldn't they happen during the times of our shifts into the rollover?
Obviously, I am excluding other y2k trigger points such as software precipitated events. But I thought it was an interesting theory.
Early Light
(12/30/99; 20:50:57MDT - Msg ID:21867)
Troubles and Bubbles
www.jimlord.to
In the past months I have greatly enjoyed reading the postings here on USAGold. Until now I have been what you all refer to as a "Lurker." I guess this is my official coming out posting.
I am a many year stockbroker living in a small Oregon city/town who found your community quite by accident while looking for gold stock ideas. I began looking for those ideas in the Spring of this year after convincing many of my clients that we were indeed entering a bubble phase in the markets and that Y2k (which my partner and I have been researching since 1997) might well be the proverbial "pin" that will burst this thing.
While educating my clients concerning the Y2k problem and the interconnectedness of the world's financial infrastructure, I became aware that this was an issue they simply could not face. I watched as client after client drew back from the information I presented, and simply relagated the very idea that Y2k could be a problem to the same safe closet of denial where airline crashes, automobile collisions, and deadly illnesses reside. I began to realize that the majority of people, in order to live their lives in some state of peace of mind, must believe that devastating events simply cannot reach them or their loved ones. If they couldn't believe this, then they would simply be forced to stay at home and be safe. I suppose that when it comes to everyday threats like Planes,Trains, and Automobiles, I am very much the same. But not with Y2k.
In the Spring of 1998 our community had the priviledge of having the first Y2k town meeting in the country. In fact, Jim Lord made his first Y2k public appearence at this two day conference which was organised by my partner. At this event we had over 500 attendees including most of the town council members and several Mayors from towns in the surrounding area. It was an overwhelming success. Because of this we have been "in the loop" with Jim Lord (see attached link) for the past two years. Through Jim we have been kept current to this day on the true state of Y2k preparedness not just in the USA but overseas as well. In a nutshell, "the news ain't good folks". We are about to enter a very hard time.
The main purpose of this post is to encourage you all to read Jim's final 1999 newsletter which is posted on his website. In it he covers every sector of the world's infrastructure and predicts with an 80% certainty that the "big suprise" of Y2k is that it is the catalyst for the beginning of World War III. Before you disregard this as paranoid rantings, please know that Jim is a 20 year retired Naval officer, who in his subsequent civialian life, has on several occasions held the highest level of official clearence granted by the US Government. Jim still is extremely well connected in "military circles." His newsletter is simply a must read. In many ways it validates the recent posting by Infomagic. You will find it very informative, but I'm afraid not very encouraging.
This post has gotten much longer than I had intended so I will end here wishing you and your loved ones a safe passage into 2000.
Early Light
Cavan Man
(12/30/99; 19:43:59MDT - Msg ID:21866)
ORO
Truly, no one knows yet. I asked your opinion because you have earned my humble respect certainly and the respect of this forum. I understand your correspondence here has a purpose but nonetheless, I sincerely thank you for furthering my education here and, BTW, I think most of us myself included take everything posted here with a grain of salt. Some posters are better than others the competition being teriffic. You are one of those. Good eveniong...CM
ORO
(12/30/99; 19:34:36MDT - Msg ID:21865)
Mr. Gresham - Y3K
I would like to point out that Y2K is by no means my area of expertise. Most of this thinking is not my own, and is far from a thorough review. Once I realized that the effect is limited in scope, I took some precautions and kept tabs on developments.
I have refrained from comment on the matter unless asked outright, because it is not in the main thrust of my thinking, and I could not devote enough attention to it to become an expert.
Take it for what it is, a light thought on the matter - in the way of a rough estimate of "most likely events". It may sound frightening, but it is no worse than what a Malay or Taiwanese (less so in that case) or a Greek experience on a daily bassis.
The credit market and banking aspects are the issues of greatest concern, since the only thing industry will need is gobs of new credit to facillitate the needed build-up of inventories to cushion the slower delivery times.
If the Fed doesn't get too scared of price inflation, disruptions will not be great. If the Fed is too scared, what industry will need is bankruptcy attornies, and we will need to pile up our own goods.
Considering past experience, the Fed is not ever reluctant to pump up credit when stability is at stake.
K Golden
(12/30/99; 19:15:00MDT - Msg ID:21864)
For the poster on "where are the y2k whistle blowers?"
who asked the question "where are the whistle blowers"
Here's one for you...a utility vice president....
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/business/1205y2k1.shtml
Will James, former VP of PSCO and co-chair for the governors y2k task force has a few warnings to offer. Please note that he is no longer employed at PSCO, in part due to his concerns over the lack of diligence in the utility's remediation efforts.
This amounts to the gentleman's way of raising a red flag on bad news.
TownCrier
(12/30/99; 19:11:19MDT - Msg ID:21863)
The GOLDEN VIEW from The Tower
For what it's worth, we did some preliminary number crunching to get an idea in advance of the next European Central Bank financial statement what to expect in regard to the value of the ECB's official gold assets. At the last ECB quarterly gold revaluation, we were on the cusp of both the Washington Agreement and the IMF's plans to revalue their own gold holding to market prices instead of conduction "sales." Gold had recently risen to $300 per ounce, each euro was going for $1.07. That translated into European System of Central Bank gold reserves being officially valued during this quarter at €280 per ounce. Turning to today's values, the London market closed with gold priced at $290 and the euro was priced approximately at $1.01. This translates into an increase in the ECB's per ounce book value to €287 per ounce through the next quarter. The ECB gold assets continue their track record of higher valuation each quarter...exactly as it should be when priced by a fiat currency. Can you see the beauty of this system, and can you project that someday all currencies must be valued this way? We knew that you could.
As mentioned earlier, London and COMEX metals markets will be closed tommorrow through Monday for the New Year holiday. Whether poised on the threshold of new year or simply looking forward to a new day, the future is always "The Great Unknown." Intelligent people have little difficultly accepting this notion, and make little fuss when they accomodate that same notion in their daily actions as they provide for the future security of themselves and their family. That's what we like best about our association with the gold sector...it brings us into contact with so very many bright and responsible people such as populate this Round Table. Raise a toast to yourselves as you usher in the new year!
Gold prices stayed in their recent range today, providing a great value to those that are inclined to take all that the market will give them. The value shoppers were rewarded for their procratination today with spot prices settling lower in New York trade, last quoted at $287.80, down $2.40 on the day. February futures contracts traded on the COMEX shed $2.80 in price per "ounce," ending the day (and year) at $289.60.
Take a careful look at today's review of the oil market, and the comments by traders. In large part they could be applied equally to the gold market (except for the rather steep fall in price, which gold avoided with only a small loss.) Similar to the metals markets over the holiday, the NYMEX and London's IPE are both closed tomorrow thru Monday, also.
OIL (& GOLD)
February crude futures suffered a steep selloff today, closing down 87˘ to $25.60 per barrel. A report by FWN quoted one broker's musings: "People may have been looking at the inventories and the way everyone's been stockpiling and say I come in Monday if nothing happens I don't want to be selling with everyone else." That jives with the mentality we suggested earlier in the day might be held by the gold futures traders who managed to trade gold lower on this last day of the year. And like gold, the losses in the oil market were said to exaggerated by thin trading volume. How thin? Another broker was quoted saying, "You could pretty much have your way with this market, it's that thin."
Although price was pressured lower by expectations for mild temperatures in the U.S. Northeast, there was a degree of support when Venezuela's president Hugo Chavez offered an alternative to his oil minister's earlier suggestion for increased production to fund disaster relief. President Chavez said Venezuela would not be changing their supply level at least until the March production-cut deadline has been reached.
Perhaps because our lights are still on despite the proximity of Y2K, traders have cited a diminishing concern regarding Y2K-related supply disruptions as a source of downward pressure on the price today. A broker said it rather well when he told Bridge News, "The market came off hard today, but you could walk in Tuesday and find out (supplies were disrupted) it could be almost anything."
Here at The Tower we hope you have postioned yourself to your satisfaction in order to have a relaxing New Year's celebration...with no need for financial anxiety come what may. The Future is ALWAYS unknown, after all. Remember that, act accordingly, and you will surely prosper throughout a long and well-lived life.
And that's the view from here...after the close.
Netking
(12/30/99; 17:47:49MDT - Msg ID:21862)
Live link from first Western Y2K country.
http://7am.com/2000/
This page link will provide you with a minute-by-minute update of celebrations and more importantly any Y2K-related problems from New Zealand - reporting direct from the first western country in the world to pass into the new millennium.
Going live at the following times;
11:30 pm NZST
10:30 GMT
2:30 am PST
5:30 am EST
On December 31, 1999
Cavan Man
(12/30/99; 17:27:14MDT - Msg ID:21861)
FOA 21859
"....power belongs to the swift of heart and mind. This world waits for no one as power flows from peoples to peoples. Even the strongest emperor knows to occupy the high ground before the flood. The powerful in tomorrow's future will own gold today".
FOA, that is one of your best IMHO. But wait a minute, what about our erstwhile, closet goldbug, Mr. Greenspan? What will one of the strongest emperor's do?
RossL
(12/30/99; 16:50:33MDT - Msg ID:21860)
Liberty
Economist and gold advocate Ludwig von Mises has been named
"Libertarian of the Century." This article is from the January 2000
issue of the _Libertarian Party News_
Who is the Libertarian of the century?
Famed Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises, says _Liberty_ magazine.
"We chose an individual whose intellectual achievment surpassed [all]
others, [and] whose contributions to the development of libertarian
social theory was greatest." said Liberty editor R.W. Bradford.
Von Mises, who was born in pre-World War I Austria-Hungary and died
in 1973, was selected by a vote of more than two dozen contributing
_Liberty_ editors. The selection was announced in the January 2000
issue.
Von Mises is perhaps best known as the author of Human Action (1949),
which "provided a rational means of understanding how the market
economy actually functions," said Bradford. He also wrote Liberalism
(1927), Omnipotent Government (1944), and Socialism (1922), which
critiqued nationalism and the failed experiment of socialism.
Von Mises was "a great economist and an original political thinker"
who "never abandoned or softened his intransigent advocacy of
laissez-faire and of political liberty," said Bradford.
Coming in a close second to von Mises for "Libertarian of the
Century" honors were Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman,
iconoclastic author and professor Murray Rothbard, economist
Friedrich A. Hayek, and novelist Ayn Rand.
FOA
(12/30/99; 16:38:17MDT - Msg ID:21859)
Reply
Hello and welcome Permafrost,
I'll comment on your items in order:
------------------------------------------------------------
PERMAFROST (12/29/99; 3:21:27MDT - Msg ID:21765)
FOA Msg ID: 21734
Dear Sir, Based on your logic, two outcomes are possible.
1) If you're right and we are witnessing the re-monetization of gold than all those that benefited from the fiat money scheme will lose their power. ------------------
Mr. Frost,
Not all of them! Only the ones that did not hedge their power effectively. Surely the Euro will carry some of the same political agendas the dollar currently does. Only, it will be controlled more so by the cross currents evident in the various old world countries. Let's face it, we all need a dollar like currency if our modern economy is going to function. What we don't need is a single reserve
currency that precludes any avenue of escape if it hurts other countries.
If gold is trading in a free physical market, no one is going to run to gold as a single currency and leave the Euro entirely. Indeed, a free world economy needs and demands a currency that can expand and contract with changing conditions. The curse of the old gold standard was that it didn't allow this latitude and always created a crisis when needs required this flexible money supply. Only a separate gold market can offer a means to truly measure the success of the money creating treasuries. This is the direction we are heading, for better or worse.
-----------A gold backed and restrained financial system (An oxymoron, in my belief) will simply preclude them from accumulating goods and services against monopoly money -- the source of their power.--------------
Well, the power you speak of can also be held through the use of gold itself. Many a king and monarch ruled the land with the effective use of bullion. Your oxymoron is not in the restraint of the monopoly money, rather in the present lack of a free choice between "gold wealth" and "dollar
wealth". The blending of these concepts will create a new power block that must conform to the needs of all.
----------2) If you're not and gold is merely being used as a relatively-untapped "new" source of non-debt-backed dollar creation, than it's a very old game we're playing, indeed. Was not gold itself responsible for one of the greatest INFLATIONARY explosions in History when the Conquistadors "expropriated" Aztec gold and brought it all to Europe to consume (chaseafter) a "limited amount of goods and services"? Colombus turning over in his grave? -------------
During the time of the Conquistadors, we must consider that goods were not being inflated in price, rather gold was being devalued! At the very least gold did not disappear as bank notes do. No, the coming run in gold will be a reflection of the tremendous dollar inflation already in the system. It's only in the eyes of the Western dollar saver that this price inflation is unwarranted. Again, they are
only loseing something they never had. An illusion of wealth on a grand scale.
------QUESTION: Do you know of any emperor (I think you called them 'Grandees' here on this forum) who's willingly abdicated power--Besides God himself?------------
My friend, power belongs to the swift of heart and mind. This world waits for no one as power flows from peoples to peoples. Even the strongest emperor knows to occupy the high ground before the flood. The powerful in tomorrow's future will own gold today.
Thank you, FOA
Mr Gresham
(12/30/99; 16:10:48MDT - Msg ID:21858)
TB2000 Forum
http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a.tcl?topic=TimeBomb%202000%20%28Y2000%29
TB2000 Forum is back up; host says enough donations have been made/pledged to a no-kill animal shelter for him to be willing to dip in his own pocket to continue it.
Mr Gresham
(12/30/99; 15:57:49MDT - Msg ID:21857)
Oro #21848
Do not -- repeat, DO NOT -- skip over Oro's message. (As if you would...) This is as good as it gets. He has read widely and absorbed much this year, distilled the best that was put out from the inside views (matching the best I saw amidst thousands of pages read over two years), and added his own knowledge and experience. If it resists the simplification everyone would prefer, it is because the picture on Y2k-Eve is such a full range of possibilities.
But he brings it to a real-world fleshing out, pulling back from the Mad Max movie scenarios and the BITR (bump-in-the-road) optimism, and shows us what the MOST people will be living with as Y2K effects next year.
When the details follow, to be shared by us here throughout next year (and having ramifications on gold and economics issues), those details will be the fill-ins for the general outlines Oro has given us.
Mr Gresham
(12/30/99; 15:43:03MDT - Msg ID:21856)
Y2k prediction
Y2k was always a bell curve with x-axis (horizontal) showing Stakes/outcomes/effects and y-axis (vertical) showing odds of any particular level of outcome happening. The exact shape and placement (lumpiness?) of the curve were yours and yours alone to guess. There was no one Right Answer, even today, one day before.
The programming industry/art/"science" is a black box, and contained within the belly of large bureaucratic (and punitive) organizations, it was unlikely to emit an accurate picture of its remediation efforts. Except for a sterling PR effort dictated from on high, the black box is still as sealed today as it was a year ago. TO be opened shortly.
Predictions of public reaction are separate from likelihoods of computer behavior. All you have seen to date is public (non-)reaction. When the computers have "spoken", then the picture will be much more complete. The general public has no more idea of the internals of a computer program than they do brain surgery on one another.
The crisis has been well-managed by TPTB. They have many more ahead of them, some aggravated by the lead-up to this one.
Y2k preparation did not depend on the gift of y2k prophecy. There is a third "Z-axis" to the graph, and that is the COST of preparing for any particular outcome on the x-axis. Since that cost was reasonably low (and the acquisitions consumable or re-sellable) up to at least the middle of the x-axis, it was folly not to prepare to a level that was likely even HIGHER than your actual expectation of disruption.
In geometric terms, you were covering the volume of a solid bounded by the chosen budget (Z) you allocated to cover the risk of loss (X) times the probability (Y) your budget could carry you up to. The total Utility you received is the solid area created by those three points. Yes, I'm a little rusty on geometry of solids as applied to economics; shoot holes if you've got the time, but the idea of logical preparation stands. It's just the emotions of worldviews being challenged that got everyone all in a snit.
TownCrier
(12/30/99; 14:59:16MDT - Msg ID:21855)
Housekeeping stuff...
A reminder (as we are currently busy evaluating the good contest entries) to the first-time posters that made themselves eligible for a complementary silver Eagle coin for making their first post during the last week's contest period (Mon. Dec 20 thru Sun. Dec 26)...be sure to e-mail MK at cpm@usagold.com to let him know which post was your first one. He'll take care of you and your new ounce of silver.
TownCrier
(12/30/99; 14:41:56MDT - Msg ID:21854)
Price of real money
The traders of gold derivatives sold their paper gold lower today in New York after London finished for the day. The contract on February's gold price was sold down in New York's Commodity Exchange by $2.80, giving us a spot price last quoted in NY $2.40 lower than yesterday at $287.80.
Both London and New York gold markets will be closed tomorrow and Monday. The price fall on the COMEX derivatives was likely due to speculators seeing that the public at large has shown no signs of a year-end panic, therefore assuming that the price of gold will turn lower when trading resumes in the New Year and thin trade exaggerated the move. That strikes us here in The Tower as a decidedly narrow viewpoint...a viewpoint to be expected among those trading the leveraged futures derivatives to begin with. We wish them the best of luck in the new year.
Meanwhile, those interested in using this opportunity to stake their claim on inexpensive metal will want to keep in mind that Michael Kosares and Co. at Centennial Precious Metals / USAGOLD will be closing for the long weekend today at 5:00 Mountain Standard time (7:00pm Eastern time). They will be opening again in the New Year on Monday, January 3rd at 9:00 am MST.
If you're interested in locking in these good prices, MK is your man! Give him a call at (800) 869-5115 and start your New Year on the right foot...with eternal money on the way.
K Golden
(12/30/99; 14:01:38MDT - Msg ID:21853)
The wisdom (or rantings, if you are a y2k non-believer) of Ed Yourdon...
Having read his most recent essay at
http://www.yourdon.com/articles/y2kiknow.html
then re-read his response to a critism of his letter to Alan Greenspan at
http://www.yourdon.com/articles/y2khoffmeister.html
then re-read his recent Computerworld article on y2k whistle blowers here
http://www.yourdon.com/articles/9911cw.html
has helped somewhat to clear any doubts I had about this event being a yawn. Hold onto your shorts, folks.
Canuck
(12/30/99; 13:40:37MDT - Msg ID:21852)
To the Fed
Nice job.
Last trading day of the millenium, in the last dying hour, the price of gold drops from 291 to 287.80. I wonder who is responsible for this?
Y2K bugs are already appearing internationally and locally
and you really expect people to believe gold is dropping?
Private citizens like myself and dozens that I know and millions that I suspect, don't believe you.
There are laws on this planet, I am a little guy, in a little town and I can't do much but I am sure that some day,
maybe sooner than later, the crooked, miserable, lying, cheating sons-of-bitches will pay.
I just checked several of the stocks that I own and not one has budged. The filthy, rotten, detestable game that is being played has not irked the shareholders one bit.
No one believes you, no one on this planet. I will not slander you or anyone else but I will say something, Y2K will rear its ugly head in a day and a half, then the exploitative policies that honest investors have witnessed,
will have to be dealt with.
Within 60 days gold will have its day, and then I hope someone has the balls to stand up and tell the world what
happened. It didn't have to be like this, someone in power has caused this mess and I hope for the sake of our planet
you can fix it.
SHIFTY
(12/30/99; 13:07:00MDT - Msg ID:21851)
kitco gold spot
Gold took a hit just before the end.
$287.80 close Whats up with that?
YGM
(12/30/99; 12:16:08MDT - Msg ID:21850)
Hot Off The Press
NY Daily News.............
Secret Plan to Safeguard City
NYPD would mobilize,
seal site of an attack
By JOHN MARZULLI
Daily News Staff Writer
<Picture>ith New Year's Eve a day away, the NYPD is ready to combat any terrorism threat with the most far-reaching fast-response plan of any police department in the nation. The secret plan's top level of action " Condition Omega " calls for lightning action minutes after any incident, with thousands of New Yorkers being stopped and questioned and entire sections of the city being closed off.
<Picture: cityhall.jpg (9644 bytes)><Picture>1000 feet of chain link fencing surrounds City Hall park.
A copy obtained by the Daily News depicts an extraordinary panorama, with police scuba divers going into the water near the United Nations, a cordon of heavily armed cops protecting police armories and officers combing subway tunnels. The News is withholding numerous specifics of the plan in the interest of public safety.
Mayor Giuliani and other officials have said planning is a necessary precaution and have stressed that they do not expect any attacks during the city's Y2K party. "Under the ball is probably the safest place to be," one police source said. "That's where the most cops are positioned. It's harder to control things as you move further from there."
But already, with just a day to go, the Police Department is using elements of the plan as it prepares for the big night. Sources said preparations include:
•One hundred officers trained to use gas masks and suits would be the only cops allowed into areas affected by a biological or chemical attacks. "If a terrorist uses some chemical or biological agent, we immediately establish a 'hot zone' in that area which nobody enters except the people who have that special expertise," the source said. •Police Emergency Service Unit trucks will be equipped with anthrax-antidote kits. •All five police helicopters will be in the air as the clock strikes midnight. They will have high-powered surveillance cameras to zoom in on small objects. •Nearly every available cop will be on duty. In fact, sources said, the department is out of bodies if any new postings are required. About 8,000 will cover Times Square. •Giuliani will monitor events from the Office of Emergency Management's downtown command center before heading to Times Square for the change in centuries. •The Federal Aviation Administration has banned aircraft from a 3-mile radius around Times Square below an altitude of 4,000 feet from 6 p.m. Friday to 2 a.m. Saturday. An FAA spokeswoman called the move a safety measure for the large crowds below.
But these measures pale in comparison to the Citywide Security Assessment Plan, which was finished last year.
<Picture><Picture: guiliani.jpg (8250 bytes)>Mayor Rudy Giuliani and city officials have stressed they do not expect any attacks over New Year's.
It calls for four levels of alert: Alpha, Bravo " the level at which the NYPD is at now " Gamma and, finally, Omega. Marilyn Mode, a police spokeswoman, refused to discuss the planning.
Condition Omega would go into effect immediately after a terrorist attack " and calls for a sweeping, citywide, militarylike response that would involve every cop in the Police Department.
"At [OMEGA] level, all possible resources and manpower are utilized to address a large-scale disaster or a highly volatile incident ...," the document says.
One facet is Operation Archangel, in which ESU personnel, anti-sniper and heavily armed counterassault teams and cops trained in handling hazardous materials, would race to any incident.
The Traffic Division would establish checkpoints at vulnerable locations and tow nearby vehicles as extra cops are deployed to bridges and tunnels.
Cops would be placed at both ends of underwater subway tunnels, at the old City Hall subway station, under the United Nations and at major subway switching stations. Face-to-face relief of officers would be mandatory, meaning that the posts would not be left uncovered.
The NYPD scuba unit would establish a so-called "frozen zone" along the East River in front of the United Nations and Gracie Mansion. They would use side-scan sonar to search for explosives attached to pilings. Police boats would monitor the situation on the surface.
Tomorrow night will be unique. Because virtually the entire department already will be on duty, there will be no need to call in extra cops, as required in the plan.
Original Publication Date: 12/30/1999
Cavan Man
(12/30/99; 11:53:06MDT - Msg ID:21849)
ORO
Thank you for taking the time to explain your thoughts on the subject. Understand completely. Sounds like widespread disruption to "business/economy" as usual. Sounds like inflationary pressures which cannot be masked. Sounds like rising interest rates. Sounds good for gold.
What better time to make a political stand "for all to see"(think I quoted FOA/Another correctly) than at the point when it is crystal clear for all to see that gold is a store of true value and the oldest form of money the world has ever known not, a "barbarous relic". Why make that stand when misunderstanding about gold rules the day.
Thannks again. I'm off to exercise my 2nd amendment rights at the range; have a couple of new toys from Santacorp.
Kind regards....CM
ORO
(12/30/99; 11:23:45MDT - Msg ID:21848)
Cavan Man - A short glimpse at my Y2K take
First, overbudget and late is the description of the time and cost aspects of the concept "project". No need to specify software. In the case of software for networks and small workstations, the "cowboy" US programmer is more likely to create ad hoc solutions to problems and provide cursory documentation.
Infomagic has the management attitude and the resulting employee and middle rank behaviors down pat. Fortunately, there is some reason to expect remediation efforts to have accelerated markedly in the latter half of the year because of the experience gained.
One of the things programmers do as their experience grows, is to collect a set of standard chunks of code that are pasted over and over into the software. Once a set of programs is analyzed and the various "chunks" of code used become familliar to the remedial programmer, the fixing accelerates significantly. Whether that is enough, I don't know. I assume not. I do expect massive failure of the "brownout" type, where software replacements fail and workarounds take time to provide recovery.
Do I think it all fails at once? No. The obvious has been tested and duly failed the test. The last iteration of the fix is probably still in the works and will be tested in real time. It will fail in unexpected ways, and not on new year's.
Output will be hurt badly, as purchasing managers phone up their orders and collect the orders from the floor and inventory and find out how imperfect they are. Most supply chains will see delays and breakdowns that will delay and in some cases prevent product from going out the door. Checking inventory will be done manually rather than through computer records, hard copies of which are probably being printed as we chat here.
Industries that will not see any significant problems are the capital installation and construction industries, which have met the problems early on. This is so because of their much longer time horizons making their supply planning hit trouble years before most had the slightest idea of what Y2K will bring. Same with banking and most other finance and financial services organizations - that hit the problems early on, while planning cash flows. Similar issues were dealt with in the capital goods industries where such planning must have brought some awareness early on.
The small business arena is less reliant on computers, though the computers are used for accounting functions and work flow organization, they are replaceable with manual operations for the most part. Hitches will be minimal - of the recurring difficulty type - annoying but not a disaster.
The problems of companies like those of Hershey foods are going to crop up relentlessly, leading to delays in shipping and many - and widely distributed - disruptions to everything from McDonalds to GM parts suppliers and the perrenially reorganizing Boeing. Your grocer's ordering system and inventory tracking will suffer as well. How bad will it be? Who knows. At a minimum I would expect delivery time to be stretched by 25% or more by Feb. It would probably get worse till Apr. At some point deliveries would likely be delayed better than 40% of the time. Productivity will fall. Prices would rise with the decline of available goods on time.
This is bad but not terrible. The disruptions are still low enough in scale to prevent problems from being intractable.
Where things really bother me is in the chemical and oil industries where automation dates back to the 1920s and computerization goes back to the use of analog controllers from the 50s. Digital control is centralized in the computer control stations where some things have not changed from the day of installation some 20 30 years ago.
The things that have changed were patch like. Embedded systems are a great unknown, since all have some sort of time control, but the logic does not necessarily use the date. Actually, it rarely uses the date. But the central computer uses the data stored by the control and measurement devices and may find some of that data unusable. Some of it will simply get erased because of a common procedure where old data is erased - and guess what, data from 1900 is perpetually the oldest. Usually, this data is backed up in archives for long term analysis and record keeping - so that is remediable within hours.
Process optimizers are a problem, since these computer calculations often do use dates, and search for cyclical relationships that are time dependent. A slight error is enough to turn their instructions to the plant into gobbledygook.
Now, the main issue for the chemical industry is that nearly everything, but for maintenance, is done on a real time bassis with less than a day - often less than a couple of hours - residence time in the plant. Things can go haywire in a few seconds. Much of the design of these operations is geared to automatic shutdown in the case of malfunction. This, and the trigger happy operator are the greatest dangers to operation of the chemical industry. Most operations should be on partial or complete shutdown at some point in Jan. Optimization programs may be put offline during the date transition and this will cause a drop in production efficiency, but will raise reliability of operations and lower the likelyhood of stoppage. I don't know that this will indeed be a problem on a large scale if most of the controll automation is put offline and replaced with manual operation.
Of the many operations closing over the end of the month period, nearly all should be partially operational by the end of Jan, with most operating close enough to optimum.
Again, the most significant issue I can point to is the likely occurrence of spot shortages of oil based and chemical commodities. How bad? Up to 3-4 week delays in delivery, 10% to 30% discrepancies in delivery (less delivered than ordered, or wrong quality level or grade).
The rest of the Industrial and retail system should fare better with on-time delivery at 70s standards (less than 50% on time - in many industries it was 20% on time, 50-60% late, 10-20% wrong items, and 10-20% never delivered). As delays bubble through the system and inventories are drawn down, prices will rise and limit some buying demand. Operations will likely experience hick-ups rather than disasters. Expect hoarding, i.e. inventory building, to exacerbate shortages in key chemical commodities where disruptions were really bad. This will also feed prices.
Canuck
(12/30/99; 10:06:18MDT - Msg ID:21847)
My email to friends
My friends,
We have kidded around about Y2K; I offer my true opinion.
I have read hundreds of reports and articles regarding Y2K, they range
from 'nothing will happen' to the 'end of the world'. I personally haven't the foggiest idea what is going to happen, no one on this planet knows what will happen; speculation runs rampant.
It is for this very reason that I have prepared for any problems. I
have prepared for the possibility of Y2K failure and its derivatives.
The food I have bought will be eaten regardless of the events that unfold. The water I have bottled was free. The wood that I have accumulated was free. I have restocked on medicine and hygienic needs;
again, it will be used. My preparations will be at no cost (over a period of time). I may be able to sell the wood (if not required) to end up on the positive side.
I am not a 'doomer', I just don't see the logic in not preparing.
Preparing is a no-lose scenario, if Y2K is nothing, great; if Y2K brings disruption you are ready, please consider the POSSIBILITY.
TownCrier
(12/30/99; 9:57:27MDT - Msg ID:21846)
Fed provides additional $7.555 billion to bolster banks' reserves today
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991230/fw.html
This was done through 14-day repurchase agreements.
Check this out...the target rate for interbank lending of available reserves (known as the Federal Funds Rate) is currently 5.5 percent, established at the FOMC meeting November 16th. Analysts are not only expecting a rate hike at the next meeting in February, but some are forecasting a hike of half a percent, raising the Fed funds rate to 6 percent.
Yet, today it appears that cash has become nearly as good as gold. At the time of the Fed's repo operation, Fed funds were trading at only 3.5 percent.
Interpret the meaning of this for yourself. For the past 24 hours the occupants of The Tower have argued two sides sides of this without either side gaining the upper hand. I have escaped to the rooftop for a break from the discussion, but regardless the outcome, you and I can always be sure that gold is the king of the currency world.
Nightrider
(12/30/99; 9:44:59MDT - Msg ID:21845)
Y2K Shopping
Good Morning everyon I have be doing some Y2K shopping latly this like large cans of Stew,Chile,Soup and even Spam :) along with bottled Water and Propane.
Every time I ask the checker at the store If they have Noticed a Increase in purchases of these Idems and Every time the Answer is the same YES! we have!.
It looks like that people are stocking UP a little bit Just in case.
USAGOLD
(12/30/99; 9:22:23MDT - Msg ID:21844)
Today's Gold Market Report: End of Year Trading Quiet Thus Far
Market Report (12/30/99): Gold was off slightly this morning on minor
profit taking and low volumes. The gold market appears to be taking a
break as we go into the New Year holiday weekend. FWN reports the
potential for more year end short covering. London trade was
characterized by one trader as steady but thin. Gold was also firm in
Hong Kong overnight in light trading. In general, there was a lack of
gold news this morning as preparations begin for the New Year.
We wish everyone a Happy and Golden New Year.
Short & Sweet (12/30/99) Five million workers in the United States
will be manning their stations New Years Eve in case of Y2K
failures...........The Y2K problem in Britain with credit card
electronic processing machines freezing up has been "resolved" according
HSBC Holdings, the bank group which experienced the problem. They
characgterized the lock as a "minor blip"............The Rocky Mountain
News ran headlines yesterday about a Y2K buying panic in the Denver area
with shoppers "clearing the shelves." This morning the newspaper
recanted saying that the citizenry, according to a poll, is not all that
concerned...............66% according to USA Today/Gallup Poll said they
are unlikely to change their behavior because of the millennium
bug........Meanwhile, FWN reports that fax machines and integrated
circuit recorders made by Japanese companies are non-compliant. They
previously passed compliance tests, according to the news
service......AP reports that "Federal prosecutors today linked a
Canadian woman arrested at a remote Vermont border crossing with an
Algerian man taken into custody at the border in Washington state. A
prosecutor said in court documents that Lucia Garofalo and Ahmed Ressam
were in the same cell of 'a violent Algerian terrorist organization'
known as GIA."....... In what appears to be a Freudian slip which
reflects how athletes are coming to be viewed in light of the rash of
criminal acts among famous athletes, ABC News Wire ran this headline
about Tom Landry, Tony Gwynn and Wilma Rudolph entering the Sports
Humanitarian Hall of Fame: THREE INDICTED into HALL OF FAME..........It
seems we have become used to the words "athlete" and "indicted"
occupying the same sentence....Former Beatle George Harrison was stabbed
four times in the chest after an intruder attacked him and his wife in
their UK home. It appears they put up a fight against the intruder,
according to a Financial Times article this morning. The Harrison's are
reported to be in stable condition......The NASDAQ topped 4000 yesterday
with investors pouring money into high tech stocks.......On line
Christmas sales quadrupled over last year according to a survey by
Shop.org..........That's it for today, fellow goldmeisters. See you here
tomorrow.
ORO
(12/30/99; 9:12:00MDT - Msg ID:21843)
SteveH - NASDAQ race into the wall
--->In your latest you content that bonds and interest rates will break this pattern sometime in the first quarter of next year, thus causing the above fall in stock values that will break the momentum of the option excercising pattern discussed above.
The weight of options being excercised being so overwhelming this coming year is the one source for trouble, the second is the bond market. The third element is the dollar. The high dollar has made the import of low priced components and software talent from Asia a driving force in controlling costs and creating an appearance of productivity in these industries.
--->In this readers viewpoint, the market valuations would seem to be narrowly sustainable and that for every percent rise now in these indices causes a further step to their own demise. In other words, the crescendo of rise is briskening rapidly towards its own demise and that to believe the vast majority of people involved in this seemingly impossible event will come out with their cash in hand doesn't seem ring the bell of truth or justice or common sense, for that matter.
The main point is that the indices are rising in a way that is totally disconnected to their operations as businesses in the real economy. The transition to their being stock trading businesses was gradual - becoming significant only in the period after 1995. The current situation is such that the stock generated benefits have hit a point of overwhelming revenue. Next year, many tech companies will see the benefits of options go so far past revenues that the real economy and even the financial economy will be both challanged to come up with the cash to buy the stocks thrown into the market and may even find it hard to borrow enough for this purpose.
--->Isn't the law of "if it is too good to be true, especially for the greatest amount of people" about to kick into overdrive fairly soon?
Yes indeed- the balance has shifted so far that it will be nearly impossible to support the absorption of these stocks.
If the Fed is aware of this situation, they will offer the markets the necessary liquidity to buy both the stock sold by employees and the put options that major tech corporations will be supplying to the markets. (The arbitrage between the put options sold at discount to fair value by the corporation and the stock bought on margin requires substantial liquidity for next year, on top of the index arbitrage which has consumed over 1/2 $t from late 98 into summer 99.)
TownCrier
(12/30/99; 9:09:02MDT - Msg ID:21842)
Fifth Horseman exacts a toll... HEADLINE: FedEx to implement 3 percent fuel surcharge
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/991230/ka.html
This article shows you directly how the cost of oil is factored into just about everything. Prices of goods and services can't for long ignore the rising cost of oil.
The chief financial officer of FDX Corp said in a news release, "Fuel costs remain high. In order to continue to provide the unmatched service and reliability which FedEx customers rely upon, the price of our services must appropriately reflect our increased costs."
K Golden
(12/30/99; 8:49:06MDT - Msg ID:21841)
Robot spiders
Hi JCS. Robot spiders are simply website capturing software that will download onto your harddrive an entire website including links for later reference. My guess is that since Gary North extolled the virtues of this unique software a few months ago, several people decided to copy the timebomb website at the last minute for its content.
It takes anywhere from 3-10 hours to download depending on your computer's memory etc., so these folks decided to start late an night, as I would too.
The problem I see is that they should have taken the hint that they were responsible for the shutdown of the server and nixed their plans. Instead, when the server came back up last night, they tried it again. That is either out of ignorance or out of malice. I guess we won't really know.
Yourdon, on his site is stating that he and the other moderators are looking for another home for the forum right now. They would like to see it up and running for the rollover.
elevator guy
(12/30/99; 7:31:04MDT - Msg ID:21840)
@Cavan Man, msg id # 21827
Thanks, Cavan Man, for your recognition.
Hope you have a secure and peaceful transition to 2000!
JCS
(12/30/99; 6:47:19MDT - Msg ID:21839)
Mr Gresham (12/30/99; 3:
I wonder where those "robot spiders" are originated from. Perhaps from Gov't. sites? Maybe Big Brother doesn't want that information about the status of oil and y2k to get to the general public, or to anyone for that matter. I happened to have printed the material and to say its scary is a gross understatement. Clinton, at all costs has avoided panic, at least at the end of the millenium. Doubt that they will be able to avoid it early on in the new millenium.
BTW, anyone seen any followup to the recent GATA article on the "missing" US gold?
Thanks and Happy New Millenium,
JCS
Cavan Man
(12/30/99; 6:43:30MDT - Msg ID:21838)
Hello FOA and, Many Thanks
Please consider this:
I am 42. Will I live to see it and perhaps enjoy the knowledge that I made the right decision???????????
FOA
(12/30/99; 6:40:45MDT - Msg ID:21837)
the finish?
Well, I didn't quite get this one right. Must be Y2K! Here it is again.
"Gold, The Wealth Of Nations; Gold, One's Future In Our Hands"
Be back later
FOA
(12/30/99; 6:30:21MDT - Msg ID:21836)
Reply
Cavan Man (12/29/99; 8:55:03MDT - Msg ID:21777)
FOA 21774
"The whole reason for allowing gold to return to its free market physical price value is to use it as a background official/private currency". Hello FOA. Isn't gold an official/private currency for central banks, ME oil, large blocks of wealth etc today? What I mean to say is; gold for those "in the know" and fiat for the masses? Thanks.
-----------------------------------------------
Happy Y2K C Man (and to everyone (smile),
Consider Historic Reality:
Yes, gold has for some time been accumulated as a savings / reserve currency by people "in the know". What do they know as opposed to the masses? They understand how gold gains in value directly in proportion to the amounts a currency is inflated. Even though the long term inflation of
our paper money has yet to be reflected in real goods prices, gold holds these gains "before the fact" of this price inflation. Hidden from view to the masses, these (gold) gains date back decades and form a kind of savings account that always balances once the currency begins it's final timeline.
A Dangerous Trail; walked by many people nations in the past:
The quest to "get something for nothing" is what the modern "Western View" is built upon. Sold by a political machine, this concept nourishes this grand illusion. An illusion that requires leveraged paper wealth administered by a super leveraged paper currency. This quest for wealth from leverage is what drives the "Fiat for the masses" mentality.
We Walk This Trail Today:
The balancing of this "Western" bubble by a revaluing of the currency will not break the dollar system as most think. The US and it's dollar will continue, yet it's only the illusion of this bubble wealth that will meet world reality. That reality will be in the form of a super price inflation that demonstrates the real buying power of "something for nothing" saving / investing! Denominating your wealth in today's dollars is like numbering your savings with commodity futures contracts. Truly Dollar credibility is completely dependent on others delivering physical goods against our dollar contract when we demand real delivery! Many will find their dollar assets in "Force Majeur" from this new and changing world.
The Leverage Of Physical Gold Against Dollars; it dwarfs the grasp of a Western Mind:
Today, the (gold) price making function of the dollar based gold market is affording the opportunity to trade an "illusion of nothing" for "something". A process of lowering the paper price of gold until physical delivery is no longer an option. All in an effort to buy time for the dollar. We may have already reached that point (dollar price) where physical gold will be purchased no lower.
Or more Western gold hoards may yet come to market in exchange for the fraud of paper gold. In time, the holders of leveraged gold paper will find themselves caught in a maelstrom of events that crush the the entire concept of our modern gold market. This firestorm will burn through any entity that makes this marketplace it's financial lifeline. We have seen only a tiny beginning of this today.
When the gold market break's, it (the rushing price of dealer physical gold) will lead the downturn of the dollar and mark the great price inflation that follows. Gold will run in dollars as never before seen in history. It will become the investment few "Americans can understand". A
savings account already full with the years of interest and gain. All equal to the past printing and leveraging of dollars world-wide. As a people, citizens of Western Thought and investing concepts are free to choose their future wealth. Some will buy a value that is not expressed today, yet as real tomorrow as rain from clouds in the spring.
"Gold, The Wealth Of ations, Gold One's Future In Our Hands"
As Another would say;
"We watch this new gold market together, Yes?"
Thank you all for reading and thinking,,,,,,,,, FOA
More later.
Bonedaddy
(12/30/99; 6:17:06MDT - Msg ID:21835)
Don't worry
I just picked up this excerpt for a Washington Times article on Y2K. "Nancy Moses, a spokeswoman for Pepco, which provides electricity for the city and most of nearby suburban Maryland, yesterday said the utility is ready and not asking customers to gird for anything unusual. "We've spent $12 million over the past five years to be sure that the system is ready and will work," she said. "Our recommendation is for people to plan as if it's a three-day holiday weekend." Bonedaddy- 'Scuse me mam. But it IS a three-day holiday weekend!
This kind of "preparation" usually involves getting out the skis or backpack and heading out for some R&R. Essentially, Ms. Moses is advocating no preparation at all.
Millenial celebrations world wide are being cancelled in fear of terrorism. Terrorism is rampant only because most of the people of this age are easy to terrorize! It is much too late to do anything about this now, nature will have to run it's course. We live in the "Age of the Wimp", to borrow a phrase from Jeff Cooper. Theodore Roosevelt once stated, " the appropriate response to a dynamite bomb is delivered with a Winchester rifle."
Ah, but we have grown squeemish. Our currency is backed by nothing. GOLD ownership is considered a "bad investment".
Rather than getting excercise we participate vicariously while atheletes entertain us in ever more violent exploits.
The book of Ecclesiastes cautions us that there is a time for every purpose under heaven. Get your gold now! Govenment officals are already bragging about the lack of bank runs. Of course there have been no bank runs! Those who knew enough to prepare got their cash together a long time ago! The bank runs won't happen unless the herd figures out what Gold Bugs have known all along. This could be several months into the new year, due to the fact that people are really dense these days. Y2K may or may not be a trigger. But, eventually there will be a trigger. When the seasons turn, you'll need gold, food, faith, and alot of good old American Spirit. Look at Bill Clinton. Our goverment is corrupt at the highest level. They won't save us, they will enslave us! The founders of this great nation warned of this! But, I suppose they where probably just a bunch of gold hoarding conspiracey theorists.
SteveH
(12/30/99; 4:12:44MDT - Msg ID:21834)
Protecting gold
I wrote this to a friend in MI.
original --
Larry,
We are in basic agreement. Here is my take on it.
The Second Amendment is a Natural and Individual right guaranteed by not presented for the first time in the Bill of Rights. The MSA 28.426 CCW law is a violation of the Second, Fifth, 14th, and two Civil Rights laws. The MSA 28.432a (f) exemption of non-MI citizens as being the only one allowed to carry CCW in MI is wholly unfair especially in view of how the AG got the State Circuit court to rule judicial contruction on it.
Most state and Federal Gun Control laws are built around the muster of the US v Miller case that alludes to the Second Amendment being a collective or State right. Under that ruling only a National Guard or military reservist has an individual right to say that a CCW is reasonably related to self-defense of the member and is in a small way preservation of the Reserve, as it preserves or protects the member drilling or not drilling.
The Miller case appears to not have been a well-thought out or comprehensive Second Amendment ruling but it was the only one most folks in the judicial system did or would sink their teeth into. It is an unfortunate lesson of history that is just now becoming common knowledge of Second Amendment followers, at least this one, anyway.
US v Emerson is significant because it is a back to basic ruling that did look comprehensively at the Second Amendment. I have read all the briefs posted at the www.saf.org web site on the US v Emerson appeal. I am of the opinion that the Judge was correct in his interpretation of the Second Amendment. Clearly, the gansters of the 30's, the drug lords of the 70's and onwards have led law enforcement and legislatures to mandate gun control as a means capture the criminal, whose ways and means of crime often make it difficult to get them 'for the crime' so they get them for possession of a weapon or at least have that option.
The problem with that thinking and the reason the issue is now finally coming to a head in Federal Court is because few people realized exactly how far the whole restriction of gun rights has gotten out of hand. I am of the opinion and will likely be vindicated on this, but every person who has ever been arrested for carrying a weapon illegally, for a purpose of self-defense is a political prisoner or political victim. The reason? Because they were just excercising their right to bear arms. That the system became totally out of hand as a convenient scape goat of misdirected responsibilities is only testimony to the frustration that legislatures and law enforcement must have with the more serious problems in society. But it is not right for any one or all of them to use the Second Amendment right to bear arms, an individual right, as the solution to the serious problems of society. Just as abortion is an unpopular topic and a liberty issue, our society needs to come to grips with the knowledge and wisdom of the founding fathers and mothers who knew first hand the reason for the Second Amendment, which is that the protection of all the bill of rights through an armed and responsible people or (at that time) militia. They knew that if a government, be it the evolution of their own government or another government tried to take away the right to bear arms it needed the protection of the Bill of Rights, to 1) make any judge use strict scrutiny in any decision having to do with Second Amendment and 2) to send a message to those people who remain true to the roots of the Constitution and this country that the right to keep and bear arms is sufficient right to sue for Civil Rights violations by those in authority who would care to take them away.
I am not saying that the Second Amendment is a completely unlimited right. I am saying that it is now time to ask ourselves: is the Second Amendment's purpose to protect our liberties and our rights from the usurption of governmental control, much like nuclear weapons are a deterrance against war? In my opinion and in the Judges opinion in US v Emerson, the answer is yes it is.
In that regard then, it is now time for all Americans, including legislatures and judges to stop the gun control, return the rights to its citizens, educate the children on the proper care and use of arms. Give back the respect for the Second Amendment that has been slowly eroded. Give back responsibility to law abiding citizens and the right to protect themselves with deadly force, if need be, when another citizen sees fit to break the contract of mutual respect for each others well-being.
There will always (unfortunately) be people who abuse a solemn right such as this. That is even more reason why reacting and not proacting is the wrong answer. Just because the power of the media can focus in on an issue and make it seem as though guns are the problem: they are not the problem. The problem is not giving each citizen the right to bear arms as a deterrance against crime, against violence, against tyranny. Americans have not lost the right to bear arms, only a few have forgotten and worse yet, a few people and organizations are trying to take the right away as a matter of expediency in trying to save us from ourselves. That is not possible. No one can save us from ourselves. Being American is being responsible for ourselves and others too. Take away our right to be responsible through legislated irresponsible gun control is to say that the cost of freedom is superceded by removing more and more freedoms until all freedoms are gone. That is the sad state of affairs, as I see them now.
As unpopular as this thought is, there is a cost to liberty that is being measured by gun-control proponents. Their thought is that any death is not worth liberty. I say that this is not correct. Just as abortion kills thousands, as cars and airplanes kill thousands, as medical malpractice kills thousand, as guns kills thousand, each of these, sadly and unfortunately, serve a societal purpose for which society has deemed is the price to pay in an unperfect world. That is not to say that the reduction or elimination of death caused by these isn't a worthy goal, but at what cost to society? Should we ban cars because it cause the death of one child? No. Why then should we have unreasonable gun control then? Is it because guns only purpose is to kill? No, guns are a deterrance for liberty. They protect the other rights. They make those charged with enforcing the law think twice about risking their lives to enforce unjust or unwise laws or to over-enforce just laws. For proof of that that just look at Waco as that is exactly the issue.
No, guns are our friend. The bearing of arms for those that choose to do so, is a liberty right, a natural right, an individual right that needs our protection, all of our protection. It is a deterrance against abuse, it is a protection against foreign powers who might think us pushovers and weak, it is a right of rights. Forgetting that, is to pave the way to forget other rights. Stop the abuse now, prevent more gun control, educate our childred on the proper use and handling of guns. Don't make our children afraid of guns or the generation who knew nothing but fear of guns and thus are the ones who, when in power, take guns away from their children. That is a mistake that Americans can not let happen.
No body said you had to like guns, only respect them for what they are: the right of rights, the right to use force, if necessary to protect all rights. A right like that must be protected and not be taken away because it cost lives. Certainly, limiting the right to only certain places, certain times, or certain individuals only serves to diminish a right that our Bill of Rights says "...shall not be infringed."
Finally, the way I see it. For a person to have the right to vote, to freedom of speach, only has that right because of the Second Amendment. How would any of us like it if someone said you can't have air anymore because it is what carries sound waves. You can say what you want, but you will not be heard because we control the air you breath. What if someone invented a soundless air and replaced real air with this new soundless kind? What if only certain people could use sound-enabled air, but others couldn't because they weren't allowed to for fear of hurting someones feeling with words. The same goes for cars. What if speed limits were lowered to 10mhp? Speed limits are now only 10mph because more accidents happen above 10mph. What if someone said, you can vote, but we are taking away computers, pencils, and paper. Well, that is what is happening with the Second Amendment. You can have the right to bear arms, but oh by the way, we took all the arms away. Guess what is happening? There is a cost in lives to liberty. Don't take away the right to bear arms or the guns to bear because there is a cost in lives. It is a sad and a high price but the right to bear arms has been paid for many times by our fathers and their fathers, our mothers and their mothers in all the wars, including the revolution.
The battle for gun control right now is in the courts. Certain parties have decided to go after guns and ammo and they are using the courts to do this. This is a dangerous weapon because it is using the justice system to infringe our right to bear arms for without arms, how can we bear them? The courts are being used by certain parties to terrorize gun manufacturers into getting out of the arms supply business. Can this not be seen for what it is? This is greedy lawyers who succeeded against sueing the tobacco industry, now they are going after the gun industry. There is one large difference. The gun industry is protected by the Constitution. How can you use the color of law or the judicial system to violate the right of rights? It is happening right now. There are laws against frivolous law suits. Lawyers can be sued. Gun boards who deny permits can be sued. Public official and Attorney Generals can be sued for using the color of law to violate the right of rights. When a public official uses the color of law to deny or oppress rights, including the Second Amendment right to bear arms, it is a Civil Rights violation and allows the person filing a suit to request legal fees and damages. Few people know this, even fewer act upon it. Now we all know.
At 02:26 AM 12/30/99 -0500, wrote:
> Steve,
> This can only be done in Federal Court or have a Federal Judge strike
>down [M.C.L. 28.426] as unconstitutional then the State of Michigan has no
>choice but to make the issuing of CCW permit "Equal for every person" or No
>one can carry a concealed weapon including all LEO's and bigot bureaucrats.
>The real legal teeth of this issue, contrary to what some people will tell
>you, is very simple so please follow me, I will try and explain it.
> The U.S Federal Supreme Court and the lower Federal Courts have been
>very consistent on their rulings on this issue. Here is where Michigan can
>not win this case in Federal Court. In 1927 when Michigan made "M.C.L.
>28.426, the issuing of CCW permits, they broke the Supreme Law of the Land".
>[This Constitution and the Laws of the United States which shall be made in
>Pursuance thereof; and all Treaties made, or which shall be made, under the
>Authority of the United States, shall be the Supreme Law of the Land; and
>the Judges in every State shall be found thereby, any Thing in the
>Constitution or Laws of any State to the Contrary Notwithstanding.]
>Source, The Constitution of the United States of America of 1776:
> In other words if a State or Local Government, makes a Law or Public
>Act, that is Contrary or Conflicts with the Constitution of the United
>States and the Bills of Rights, as with Michigan's "M.C.L.28.426" it is
>notwithstanding. Therefore these Laws or public Acts are Illegal and can
>not be forced upon the Citizen of the United States.
> Every Law or Public Act of any State Must Conform to the Constitution
>of the United States which is the [SUPREME LAW OF THE LAW] or it is Illegal.
>Larry:
> SteveH wrote: Larry, Just a thought, the 14th Amendment states, in
>part, "...No State shall make
>or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of
>citizens of the United States...." The AG abriges our right to bear arms by
>denying MI-citizens the right to
>use out of state permits. The Boards deny it by not considering
>out-of-state permits as other proper reasons, by not consider mere
>self-protection as other proper reasons and basically not considering other
>proper reasons. If Emerson wins at the Appellate level, I believe the above
>will hold
>complaint-level strength, if you get my drift. At 10:30 PM 12/29/99 -0500,
>>Steve, Thank You. You can share my fox hole any day.
>>Larry Wright
>>
>>SteveH wrote:
>>
>>> Larry,
>>>
>>> You got the point. The point is simple. What is the cost of liberty
>>> guaranteed by the right to keep and bear arms? The cost of the right to
>>> medicine is 96K lives, the cost of automobiles is 25K lives, the cost of
>>> liberty is xx lives?
>>>
>>> Now how does one reduce the cost of lives without infringing our liberty
>>> right to bear arms?
>>>
>>> Right now, the answer seems to be "to hell with liberty" just get rid of
>>> them-there guns. Wrong answer.
>>>
>>> Correct answer: guarantee the liberty, don't infringe it, and lets work
>>> together to save lives. Education, training, responsibility.
>>>
>>> At 06:40 PM 12/29/99 -0500, xx wrote:
>>> >How about the 96,000 people that doctors kill every year in this
>country. I
>>> >haven't seen any doctors being lynch yet or the Federal Government
>>> stepping on
>>> >this people. Perhaps I missed something, if I did please point it out.
>>> >
>>> >SteveH wrote:
>>> >
>>> >> I laughed when I saw that. A vocal minority dictating gun policy to the
>>> >> silent and contra-majority who believe in guns and their purposes,
>>> >> especially the Second Amendment.
>>> >>
>>> >> We must ask, if arms (including knives) guarantee our liberty in the
>United
>>> >> States both from outside and inside enemies, is this worth the cost of
>>> >> lives it costs to maintain that liberty? Society has already agreed that
>>> >> 25K lives per year in the US is worth the privledge of car
>transportation.
>>> >> I believe the issue is just that simple.
>>> >> >"Not that I'm particularly fond of online polls, but APB Online has
>>> >> >another good one at."
>>> >> >
>>> >> >http://www.apbnews.com/talkaboutit/index.html
>>> >> >As of 1000 hrs est
>>> >> >81% Yes
>>> >> >17% No
>>> >> >2% undecided
>>> >> >----------------------------------------------------
Mr Gresham
(12/30/99; 3:23:33MDT - Msg ID:21833)
TB2000 Forum
TimeBomb 2000 forum was shut down by its host at MIT; says robot spiders were copying the site repeatedly and overloaded his server. Two days before...
Its founder, Ed Yourdon, and the sysops and the forum's regulars are gathering in various sites trying to re-connect. Hoping to quickly acquire a location for information to be collected and distributed as the rollover happens.
Appreciation for the generosity of a reliable host in difficult times...
Netking
(12/30/99; 2:57:03MDT - Msg ID:21832)
2K Outlook
NY Post; Cindy Adams quoting Paula Roberts this week;
Stock Market > "Stock Market 30% dip early on. Mid-year correction to within 10 percent. Year's end, big rally.
Gold > Options low until March. December bonanza"
Simply Me
(12/30/99; 0:18:16MDT - Msg ID:21831)
Flu Shot or Not
Just a very localized observation, but...
Spouse got a flu shot a month ago, now very sick with the flu.
Myself and children got no flu shot, so far we're healthy.
Our home is a 120 year old (remodeled) farmhouse directly under the landing path of a National Gaurd Post. (Might bother some, but I really enjoy watching the jets fly over.)
Point is...many, many criss-cross contrails on every clear day (too low to be REAL contrails).
Who knows what the outcome will be. Is spouse now immunized against some unknown threat?...or are the rest of us because we are not sick.
National Gaurd proximity during Y2k problems could mean protection or invasion. Who knows...I don't.
My fondest wish for 2000 is that we can all meet here to discuss gold...and that the POG is our biggest worry. God Bless Us..Every One.
simply me
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