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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 9/29/2003
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

otish mountain (09/29/03; 23:54:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 109594)
Sounding the Alarm/Gary North;
http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north211.html
Thanks Clink

Black Blade (09/29/03; 23:38:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 109593)
134,000 Lost Jobs in August 'Mass Layoffs'
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A2082-2003Sep25.html

Snippit:

More U.S. workers lost their jobs in large layoffs in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported yesterday, another sign that employers are continuing to trim payrolls even as the economy strengthens. The BLS tracks what it calls "mass layoffs," or firings of more than 50 workers in a single month by a single employer, by compiling reports on initial claims for unemployment benefits filed with state agencies. The numbers include temporary and permanent firings. About 134,000 workers lost their jobs in 1,258 mass layoffs nationwide last month, up from the 128,103 employees who were fired in 1,248 such actions in August 2002, the bureau said.

The mass-layoff report is a snapshot of monthly employment changes across the country. Manufacturing took the hardest hit of any sector in August, accounting for nearly a third of all mass layoffs and more than a third of the number of workers who lost jobs, the report said. Job losses were also reported in transportation equipment, textile mills, machinery and food manufacturing.

Lewis Siegal, a BLS senior economist, said the overall numbers are not as bleak as they appear, because in many cases they do not represent "long-term layoffs." He said that 7 percent of the claims, for example, occurred in temporary-help services, and those jobs are, by definition, short-lived. And employment in some industries, such as movies and recording, fluctuates according to production schedules. But some economists say many manufacturing jobs, such as those formerly held by textile-mill workers in North Carolina, are probably gone for good.


Black Blade: Interesting how the BLS dodges the questions and tend to brush off unemployment data that is ALWAYS upwardly revised.



Aristotle (09/29/03; 23:22:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 109592)
Clink! -- my dearest ploughman!
As you bust sod on that abominable Equity Gold Trust Form S-1, amendments and exhibits, I'd like to put a special favor to you.

Keep your eyes peeled especially for occurrances of text that distinguish between Allocated and Unallocated holdings. Please report back to us what you see using this patented device which I like to call the "Aristotle Junk Filter."

Thanks in advance, buddy!


To Belgian:

If there's anything I can do to lift your spirits out of the dim depths of "posting fatigue," just say the word and I'll enlist whatever help necessary to procure a ladder and a light or whatever it takes. I think I know the feeling only too well myself so I'm all the more keen to see you through it. I can probably speak for a couple of your friends here that the sooner we can boost you over this parapet the sooner you can in turn give us a hand up for a better look around and prepare for the next stage of the journey.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Black Blade (09/29/03; 23:02:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 109591)
Market Wrap Up � Puplava
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

Snippit:

The Silver and Gold Train Wreck

There is not a day or week that goes by that precious metals investing isn't grabbing a headline. Investing in precious metals is going main stream as an asset class. There is growing recognition from the investment community that precious metals and commodities are an attractive asset class that balances out investments in stocks and bonds in a portfolio. Recent studies have shown that investments in commodities can add diversification and help to increase portfolio returns. As an asset class, commodities can run contra-cyclical to asset groups such as stocks and bonds. Over the years commodities generally have a negative correlation with the stock market.

In flooding the markets with money and credit, the Fed has been setting the foundation for the next bull market in commodities, especially precious metals. Gold bullion prices and gold and silver equities have risen for the last three consecutive years. The primary drivers of this new bull market in commodities are monetary debasement and supply and demand fundamentals.

Unlike the last bull market in precious metals during the 1970s, this bull market will be driven higher by supply constraints. During the 1970s, central banks held on to their gold reserves. The U.S. government had a large reserve of silver. That is not the case today. The U.S. stockpile of silver is gone. Central banks have sold off or leased half of their gold reserves if not more. There are no large stockpiles of gold and silver lying around. Central bank vaults are now half empty.

For more than a decade both gold and silver have been running supply deficits. These deficits have been made up by above-ground stockpiles. Central banks have sold off or leased out large quantities of gold from their vaults. In the case of silver, there hasn't been one year in the last 25 years where mine production has been able to satisfy demand. The silver markets are heavily dependent on secondary supply which comes primarily from recycled film or photography. In the case of gold supply, deficits have been made up primarily by central bank sales. Without that supply, gold prices would have risen a long time ago.


Black Blade: Good coverage on precious metals tonight in Puplava's market Wrap Up. I have covered the exploration and development of new mine supply in the past but definitely worth a read again. Note that much of CB gold supply is gone � simply not there anymore. Any CB sales are simply to "clear the books" of nonexistent gold. If it's been loaned out and it can't be returned they must do something about it and that is to call it a sale. Simple enough.



21mabry (09/29/03; 22:24:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 109590)
(No Subject)
The minds here at this forum offer a far better education than the university.Its ashame MK can"t offer a degree in PM studies.Im sure with the posters we have here he could get together a faculty.21

Gandalf the White (09/29/03; 22:11:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 109589)
THANKS, Sir Sundeck !!
Sundeck (09/29/03; 19:28:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 109581)
Sundeck (09/29/03; 19:28:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 109581)
===
I told SPOT and SPIKE about the new shipment's projected arrival -- they are salivating !
GREAT observation about the Three Red "O"'s !!
It does look like the exhause flames of a ROCKET !
All we need is the ROCKET !
AND, if your chart reading is correct -- the top of the next run will be +$40. from the $380. --- OR at least $420.
I can accept that !
<;-)

21mabry (09/29/03; 22:11:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 109588)
steady
Steady thnx for the welcome back.I had been letting my school work slip was spending to much time on this sight and the others.I let my studies slip and my first exam showed it.The sad thing is I learn so much more at sights like this than I do at school.Its a shame that all this world wants to see is that diploma.They do not care about what you have learned.21

neer-do-well (09/29/03; 22:00:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 109587)
Bl;ackouts
Could be HARP...could be intentional...could be..could be..maybe?

Cytek (09/29/03; 21:23:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 109586)
The SUN won't be shinning tomorrow
Sun to Post Deeper First Quarter Loss
Monday September 29, 10:01 pm ET
By Duncan Martell


SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Sun Microsystems Inc.(NasdaqNM:SUNW - News) on Monday warned of a larger loss in the current fiscal first quarter than Wall Street had expected, leading it to record a $1 billion tax charge and revise its previously reported fourth-quarter results to show a loss.

Analysts said they were more concerned with signs of weak sales and tough competition in the current quarter than with the noncash charge to fourth-quarter results. Sun's revenue has declined for nine consecutive quarters.

"The tax issue is interesting, but it's more interesting that here's another quarter where they're going to miss revenue and earnings per share," said Dan Niles, an analyst at Lehman Brothers. "The slow bleed continues."

Cytek

Analysts are finally concerned with signs of weak sales, go figure. All i can say is Dan Niles has got it right " The slow bleed continues"..........


misetich (09/29/03; 21:12:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 109585)
Central Bank: China Foreign Reserves Rise
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-China-Foreign-Reserves.html
Snip:

BEIJING (AP) -- China's foreign exchange reserves have risen by nearly 20 percent this year to $364.7 billion, the country's central bank said Monday.
..................

The latest figure was for the central bank's reserves at the end of August, which it said had risen $8.2 billion from the end of July. It represented a 19.8 percent increase from the start of the year
**************
Misetich

Asia's "foreign" reserves of US $ is bloating - The global misalignments continue unabated -

All On Board The Gold Bull Express





misetich (09/29/03; 20:58:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 109584)
UPDATE 1-U.S. Treasury blasts rumors on dollar policy
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=TC1SEL0TTY5GCCRBAE0CFFA?type=bondsNews&storyID=3527086
Snip:

WASHINGTON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - A U.S. Treasury spokesman said on Monday that U.S. dollar policy was unchanged, and blasted market rumors cited by traders as a key influence in foreign exchange movements earlier in the day.

The dollar sank in value against other major currencies, touching a three-year low against the Japanese yen.

Traders in New York said one reason behind the dollar's drop was an unpublished report by advisory group Medley Global Advisors that would supposedly criticize U.S. dollar policy cited at a Group of Seven meeting in Dubai last week.

Treasury officials reacted angrily.

"We are not going to respond to every goofy market rumor on currencies," Treasury spokesman Rob Nichols said in response to questions. "Of course, there is no change in policy."
***************
Misetich

"Of course, there is no change in policy." -

Treasure department should be reminded, that in English usage, policies are "made" and "implemented" in the same way that decisions are made and implemented. Yet it is possible to have policies that are not or cannot be implemented,

The strong US $ policy can no longer be implemented even if so desired- it is the end of a short lived era. It is only "conceptually alive" in the minds of the Walter Mitty's

All On Board The Gold Bull Express





steady (09/29/03; 20:53:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 109583)
nice timing
21 marby welcome back almost missed ya.
lets keep our eye on the golden ball!

misetich (09/29/03; 20:45:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 109582)
Groups sound warning on large U.S. budget deficits
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=TC1SEL0TTY5GCCRBAE0CFFA?type=bondsNews&storyID=3527569
Snip:

"The coming decade is likely to rank as the most fiscally irresponsible in our nation's history," said Robert Bixby, executive director of the non-partisan Concord Coalition.

The coalition, along with the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and the business-backed Committee for Economic Development, said that official budget projections mask the extent to which the fiscal outlook has deteriorated.

While the Congressional Budget Office forecasts deficits totaling $1.4 trillion over the next 10 years, the groups projected a $5 trillion toll. They said their projection better reflected likely policies, such as the possibility recent tax cuts would be made permanent.

.......................
"We're not talking about something that's going to go away when the economy recovers," Bixby said. "Hard choices are going to have to be made on tax and spending policies."
....................
********************
Misetich

Incredible variance between estimates - and comparatively to the "trillions" of surplus projected only a couple of years ago

To boot they're counting "...when the economy recovers" as ifthe current problems, which have prevented (or preventing)the sought economic recovery... would miraculously disappear, vanish, poof...and the "good old days" of the bull market of 1995-2000 return, resolving all problems

Failure (denial) to understand that the SM bull of the last 20 years or so was fuelled by the building of debt at all levels, consumer, corporate, government

The starting point of debt is not "1980's " any longer but current staggering levels -

The buzz work nowdays is UNSASTAINABILITY of previous/current patterns such as twin deficits, govenrment debt,

Music Maestro please...

Debt To The Penny is currently being reported as being $6.5 + trillions, lets add the projected $5 trillions as noted in the posted article... add some annual interest cost, a little GSE's debt, a touch of State and Municipal Debt, a little dose of Consumer debt, topped by a sprinkling of Corporate Debt and you're assured of a potent debt cocktail that surpasses any other, ready to be served to all those still "dancing" in the Financial Titanic

All On Board The Gold Bull Express





Sundeck (09/29/03; 19:28:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 109581)
Gandalf's Three Red "O"s - Oh No!
Oh no...oh no...oh no!
Not three red "O"s.
...but then no-one knows
if three red "O"s
Are really on the nose,
Or just the way things goes...


Take heart, Sir Gandalf!

Look what happened after the last occurrence of three red "O"s...gold rose and rose from $352 to $392...

Perhaps it is an "O"men?

Ouch!

P.S. The next consignment of roo meat is from big red kangaroos (yes, like on Qantas' tail)...you should see those guys leap! (Don't tell Customs.)

;-)

Sundeck





Great Albino Bat (09/29/03; 19:15:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 109580)
Blackouts - not just "accidents"

That does it, NEMO! Thanks for the info on Sweden and Denmark blackouts. (Today I found another site - address not available at the moment - where POLAND was named as probable next victim.)

The blackouts cannot be a series of accidents, ladies and gentlemen. This is deliberate work of sabotage, I no longer have any doubt. It will take some time for most people to come to accept this.

Notwithstanding the fact that the GAB lives in the recesses of a cave and gets around in darkness, there is a generator installed in his home. He is ready for the blackouts.

When the fact that the blackouts originate in Islamic reprisals finds its way into the consciousness of the populations of the USA and other "coallition" countries, fear will strike their hearts.

The GAB is not pleased that millions will be fearful, but this is what these coallition countries have brought upon themselves, by being accessories to US/Israel actions in the M.E.

Fear=flight into gold=higher prices. Beat the crowd - buy now!

the GAB







glennh10 (09/29/03; 19:06:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 109579)
Re: Big Silver Melt
I found the book at the L.A. library.

Gandalf the White (09/29/03; 18:52:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 109578)
Oh OH !! Those RED "O"'s are BAAAAAAACCCCCCCKKKKKKKKK !!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$GOLD,P
I DO NOT BELIEVE IT !
Those THREE RED "O"'x are BACK !
I did not see the drop below $380., but they saw it did !
Perhaps another error !
<;-)

---
Please forgive my POOR memory ! <;-( BUT, I have forgotten whom ask what P&F charts were !
BUT, here is the definition on Stockcharts.com
===
"Prices of entities rise and fall due to changes in the supply and demand relationships between buyers and sellers of the stock. The causes of the changing supply and demand relationships are many, but the effect of these changes shows up in the changing stock prices. Point and figure (P&F) charts are a method of charting prices that tries to identify the prices levels at which these relationships change or have the potential to change. The alerts on our Classic P&F charts are meant to alert you to these changes in the supply/demand relationships."
===
I hope that this helps ! One other thing that is easily see on a P&F chart is that while TIME is one of the two chart axes, it is not scaled !! Time is shown in months in the field of the chart by the months numbered 1 => 9 and the letters A, B & C for the months of Oct. Nov. and Dec. and shown in YEARS on the x-axis.
<;-)


21mabry (09/29/03; 18:49:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 109577)
silver melt
Glenn10, I tried to order it at a bookstore but they said its out of print.They can not get it.I have been thinking of buying it of the big web retailer used but really do not know how the used book section works on their site or if its trustworthy.One thing I have read is during the big melt people were not getting the spot price because of smelter back logs.For example when spot was $50 people were only getting $37.A few years ago when Buffet spiked silver our local bullion was paying no premium on silver eagles people brought in.I know there are reasons for these things but sometimes these circumstances are confusing.21

Goldendome (09/29/03; 18:43:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 109576)
Black Blade your 109574 on unemployment.
Yes-War is a terrible, but effective way to drive down unemployment. Heck, in WW2 it was driven down so much, that the country even had to put women to work--in the factories...

It's just too bad this country doesn't round up some of the drug addicted, criminal deadbeats, from off of the street corners and send them over to those God forsaken hellholes, instead of always sending the best of our youth.

----Gdome

glennh10 (09/29/03; 18:38:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 109575)
Re: 21Mabry, Silver in Dollars
I am not sure, but, it could be. For circulated coin, I prefer the 90% over the 40% because you've got more silver per overall bulk and weight. Either way, refining costs might enter in at sell time however, especially if the silver shortages that have been predicted by the silver bugs come to pass, causing the need for melting and refining. I believe that today, the bags of silver coin are trading as is. BTW, have you read "The Big Silver Melt", by Henry Merton (1983)? A good (true) story!

Black Blade (09/29/03; 17:21:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 109574)
How Bad Is Unemployment?

Well I just saw a report on record enlistment in the armed forces because the jobs are disappearing. They profiled one young guy with a wife and two kids who enlisted because the factory he worked for closed up shop. Not an encouraging picture on the employment picture but then it is a "Jobless Recovery". Hmmm...

- Black Blade

21mabry (09/29/03; 17:21:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 109573)
Silver in dollars
Glenn10 I agree with your post I was just thinking outloud.I cant rember who posted on the 40 % halfs.Do you have to pay a premium to smelt those because of lower silver content? 21

Cavan Man (09/29/03; 17:07:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 109572)
Gold and China in Another perspective
But let's look at the big scheme of things. While 400 to 500 tons of gold sounds like a whole lot, it comes to only about $6 billion to $6.5 billion. If the Chinese wanted to kill two birds with one stone, they could tell the G7, "You're done," buy the 500 tons, and give the central banks dollars. In so doing, the Chinese would have valuable gold and a lightened load of dollars, without having pressured the yuan/dollar exchange rate.


Bill Fleckenstein


NEMO me impune lacessit (09/29/03; 16:37:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 109571)
Great Albino Bat
You already got four blackouts.
Southern Sweden and capital of Denmark had a total
blackout last week (ca: 5 millions were affected).
Blackout lasted for 6-8 hours.
"They" had a hard time to find out what happened.
Said it was some sort of grid problem.
Nemo

Boilermaker (09/29/03; 15:53:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 109570)
Great Albino Bat (9/29/03; 10:09:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 109553)
I do not have the privilege of hosting a "Great Albino Bat" in my home but I do host a colony of lesser bats, I think Brown Bats. They do keep my farm relitively free from mosquitos and for that I am thankful. I am not so pleased with the guano but such is life.

Do not fear the blackouts my goldbug and bat friend, it is your milieu.

Cheers,
Boilermaker

Mr Gresham (9/29/03; 15:14:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 109569)
Fleck making the gold case
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P59638.asp
Headliner on MSN's Money site, most of the basics you already know, but here's the public being given the bait.

DummyANI -- I forgot how you chose that name, but you're the smartest dummy I've ever heard, and our voice from Japan. Thanks for being here.

glennh10 (9/29/03; 15:06:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 109568)
Re: Maple Leafs and Dollars
Some thoughts.
My focus here at this forum concerns gold and silver, as opposed to legal tender. I really don't care what dollar value is stamped on a gold or silver coin. This is based on what I understand of the Constitution and the original coinage act, the Coinage Act of 1792. The dollar value of the (silver/gold) coin is to be based entirely on its weight. A coin of full weight retains its full dollar value. A coin of lesser weight (worn, holed) has a dollar value based on its remaining weight. In fact, in the days of circulating gold, commercial banks used scales for weighing worn coins. And, private mints and assay offices produced bars with their weight, fineness, and often, dollar value indicated.

My interest and investment in gold and silver is separate from legal tender. The fact that the U.S. stamps $1 on the silver eagle, has no greater relevance than the fact that they stamp $50 on the one ounce gold eagle. The gov't doesn't relate gold or silver to its concept of "legal tender", only (its version of) dollars. So, if they were to issue an edict declaring only (their) "dollars" to be (a) legal tender, would that mean that your "$50" one ounce gold eagle would only be legally good in the world marketplace for $50? Ha! On the other hand, if you try to declare to the IRS your one-ounce gold eagle at a value of $50, that won't fly either (unless gold drops/dollar gains to $50/ounce) Ha!

I would forget the dollar values that are stamped on the bullion coins. After all, the coins are bought for their gold/silver.

And besides, "legal tender" laws are always subject to revision. You'll never beat them at it (recall the gold-clause cases). We're all going to win, but it will be with our gold and silver itself, not due to legal tender edicts.

Cheers.


Liberty Head (9/29/03; 15:02:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 109567)
On The Money Trail, Formula 1 Style
I just got back home from Indy :-)

Formula 1 auto racing is one of the best examples of a truly international sport. It is a big money sport as well.

Like any other business, Formula 1 promoters must go where the money is. They are quick to leave places where the money isn't. Perhaps that's why they can live in Monaco and why Michael Schumacher is the world's highest paid athlete.

So, if we wish to walk in the footsteps of giants, all one need do is look at the annual Formula 1 race calendar. Here, at a glance, we can see where the international money trail goes.

Next year Sakkir, Bahrain and Shanghai, China have been added to the calendar. Canada is out next year and the U.S. will likely be off the calendar by 2005. Silverstone in England is on thin ice as well.

The Formula 1 race calendar also moves toward free-markets and away from controlled markets. Countries like Belgium, Canada and the U.S., that ban certain types of advertising fall off the calendar quickly.

None of this should come as a surprise to any of us who have followed this wonderful forum provided by our kind hosts. I heard it first right here. The Formula 1 calendar independently confirms much of what I've read here.

Best Wishes


Clink! (9/29/03; 14:46:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 109566)
The devil in the detail....
I have been following the discussion about the ETF, and while I can understand the points of view, I thought that we needed some hard information about it before coming to any firm conclusions. Well, now we have some more details in the form of the S-1. Maybe I'm paranoid, but does this phrase make anyone else VERY nervous ? "The investment objective of the Trust is for the shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the trust's expenses." Not "reflect the value of gold bullion" but the price (in fiat) performance. You don't need bullion to reflect a paper price.
OK, I'll plough through the S-1 and see if it is just an unfortunate turn of phrase.
C!

Gandalf the White (9/29/03; 14:36:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 109565)
Sir Dr. Zhisheng -- I wish I could tell you -- BUT, I know not why !
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0
Zhisheng (9/29/03; 12:03:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 109561)
Dollar Drop
Gandalf, I've been curious to learn what caused this.
--
I reckon the shorts had to spend a bundle to keep gold from rising more than it did today. ****TRUE TRUE !!
---
"Gandi der Weise", ****I only wish !
<;-)

Henri (9/29/03; 14:33:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 109564)
Former BIS private shareholders get BONUS!
http://www.bis.org/press/p030922.htm
Probably still won't make up for the difference in value those shares would have represented after the BIS engineered revaluation of gold. Former shareholders disenfranchised? youbettcha! Yet another example of how a global organization can just change the rules on a whim if it looks as if some individuals might actually have capitalized on a farsighted investment risk.

USAGOLD Daily Market Report (9/29/03; 13:30:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 109563)
Page Update!
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Including interesting comments by Bill Fleckenstein, president of Fleckenstin Capital on precious metals.

Great Albino Bat (9/29/03; 12:22:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 109562)
Further comments on "China's Gold Rush"
http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-09/25/content_267390.htm


"The introduction of individual traders, ["prominent gold experts and officials"] say, would kill four birds with one stone, by invigorating flagging consumption, slashing the foreign trade surplus, trimming conspicuous foreign exchange reserves and easing international pressures on China to appreciate its currency."

Let's start with the last point, "easing international pressures on China to appreciate its currency."

What this probably refers to, is Treasury Secretary Snow's unfortunate recent attempt to influence Chinese monetary policy during his visit to China.

"So you want to influence our policy, Mr. Snow? � How's this for size?"

The Chinese people are great savers. ["Outstanding individual bank savings in China hit � US $1.28 Trillion at the end of July"] The Chinese government has tried "in vain to encourage a high growth rate in private spending".

So now, the Chinese government is going to allow the Chinese to "spend" - on gold! The Chinese dearly love gold, and now that it will be OK for them to "spend" on gold for investment, the result will surely be overwhelming. This is the answer to US pressure to stimulate internal consumption in the economy of China, rather than emphasizing exports. Blow No. 1!

Of course, if the Chinese are going to "spend" on gold, they have to get it from the rest of the world, either from accumulated stocks of gold, or from gold miners all over the world. Note that the Chinese traditionally, were never great importers. In old times they used to say: "What do you offer, that we do not have?" They wanted silver and gold for their exports, not manufactures; the British discovered something else the Chinese desired � opium, banned by the Emperors - and so were born many British and American fortunes: the opium trade was the foundation of Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) and also, for instance, of the Delano family fortune, a family which bore Franklin Delano Roosevelt. So now, the Chinese return to their ancient ways: "China does not need your manufactures. However, we will quite happily take your ridiculously undervalued gold. You can export your gold to us, and thus, we will reduce our trade surplus, about which you complain so bitterly." Blow No.2!

"By spending on buying your cheap gold, we shall reduce our overload of foreign exchange reserves, which you and I both know are worthless papers."
Blow No. 3!

Three strikes and the International Monetary System is on the ropes, if not totally kayoed at this moment.

This message coming out of China is totally bullish for gold.

The GAB


Zhisheng (9/29/03; 12:03:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 109561)
Dollar Drop
@Gandi der Weise
Gandalf, I've been curious to learn what caused this. About all I've found is "on speculation U.S. officials may seek a weaker currency to boost corporate profits and extend an economic recovery" in a Bloomberg article, and this is hardly news.

I reckon the shorts had to spend a bundle to keep gold from rising more than it did today.


TownCrier (9/29/03; 11:50:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 109560)
Will you be the paper tiger's lunch?
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Thom+Calandra's+StockWatch&dist=nwtwatch&siteid=mktw
HEADLINE: Gold fund on track, new filing shows -- 'Paper gold' security seen hitting NYSE within months

By Thom Calandra, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Sept. 29, 2003

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - A controversial proposal for an exchange-traded gold fund is back on track, according to a fresh filing with the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission.

The World Gold Council's chairman, Chris Thompson, told me Monday morning he and the trade group declined any and all comment on the proposed issue.

"The trust holds gold and will from time to time issue baskets in exchange for deposits of gold and distribute gold in connection with redemptions of baskets," the S-1 filing says. "The investment objective of the Trust is for the shares to reflect the performance of the price of gold bullion, less the trust's expenses. For many investors, the shares will represent�a cost effective investment in gold."

...At present, there is no exchange-traded fund representing a commodity that changes hands in the United States.

Yet the gold council's efforts, spearheaded by its chairman, Thompson, the former chief executive of South African miner Gold Fields Ltd., and by new council CEO Jim Burton, hit a brick wall this past summer. Equity Gold Trust got caught in a hornet's nest of regulatory issues, including concerns about the custody of stored gold, as well as the fund's tax status and a head-butting turf battle with the Bank of New York, which hopes to lead the way in the field of securitized commodities.

Now, with Bank of New York named as the trustee, gold council members and fund managers tell me the proposed fund is on track to generate enough demand for several hundred metric tons of the metal, and perhaps more. The fund's backers are still shrouding their marketing plans in secrecy, crossing their fingers that the new registration statement with American regulators sparks no more new questions.

"All the World Gold Council types were pretty tight-lipped in Denver," Tocqueville Gold Fund manager John Hathaway told me. The council had hoped to tell members at the Denver Gold Show last week that the new fund would begin trading on the NYSE imminently. "They are taking no chances on any leaks."

The World Gold Council's Equity Gold Trust would mark the second commodity-linked security to grace the floors of a stock exchange. The first, Gold Bullion Ltd.'s Australia-traded security, is already meeting brisk demand for so-called "paper gold."

The prospect of paper gold has gold believers titillated. But the administration of such a product required coordination among bank vaults, electronic data centers, custodians, trustees, buyers, sellers and regulators.

At the heart of the day-to-day running of a gold exchange-traded fund would be Bank of New York, the trustee. The bank, according to the prospectus, would have to "monitor the trust's on-going expenses and sell the trust's gold as needed to pay the trust's expenses (gold sales are expected to occur approximately monthly in the ordinary course), calculate�the net asset value of the trust and receive and processing orders from authorized participants to create and�redeem baskets and coordinating the processing of such orders with the custodian and the Depository�Trust Co."

-------(see url for (what seems to be) the latest fad in a long line of watered-down assets and property rights)------

R.

steady (9/29/03; 11:32:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 109559)
gab/ blackouts
relax its just the ptb letting hte world know large elecrtical grids will be/are becoming obsolete. look for distributive power.
thats the keybuzzword. its coming thanks to nimbys and large power plants not being able to be located where tehy need to be.


Paper Avalanche (9/29/03; 11:13:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 109558)
ETF News from Calandra
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Thom+Calandra's+StockWatch&dist=nwtwatch&siteid=mktw
Informative article

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (9/29/03; 11:13:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 109557)
Construct your financial foundation with building materials priced right, free shipping on 25oz.
http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html





e-mailer (9/29/03; 11:04:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 109556)
up and down
As a person who was margin invested (long) in gold during the famous stock market selloff in October, 1987 (I believe the Dow was down more than 20% in one day), and got "hammered" the following day when gold was hugely sold off to meet Dow type margin calls, I ask forum posters to address the following question.

Should the broad market sell off sharply in the future, similar to 1987 (I believe it will), will the U.S. dollar be sold by foreign holders of U.S. stocks such that the benefit to the gold price and/or gold stocks will offset any downward pressure due to physical gold, gold stock, and "paper gold" sales to meet Dow type margin calls?

I consider this issue to be extremely important and hope others will as well.

tyro (9/29/03; 10:27:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 109555)
Vietnamese Bankers Worried
http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/030929/16/3ejji.html
snip: Monday September 29, 1:04 PM
Vietnamese Bankers Worried About Fallout From Gold Price Rise
HANOI, Sept 29 Asia Pulse - The relentless rise in gold prices is keeping experts on tenterhooks about the possible fallout on interest rates and inflation.
The State Bank of Viet Nam's Banking Development Strategy Department chief, Le Xuan Nghia, pointed out that the price rise would cause an increase in gold savings, a popular haven in the country, accounting for 40 per cent of all savings.
This, in turn, will put pressure on commercial banks to raise interest rates to attract deposits, opening a Pandora's box which was only recently closed.
With savings chasing after gold, experts are also worried about possible inflation. Both the real estate and stock markets are strongly influenced by gold prices fluctuations.
The former has ground to a halt with transactions put on hold after gold prices began climbing two weeks ago. As for the stock market, investors could pull out and make a beeline for the yellow metal.
Nghia also warned that the dong may come under pressure since the local economy is greatly influenced by psychological factors.
He said, however, that the State Bank has so far not decided to intervene since there are no efficient measures considering local prices follow international trends.
But there is cause for optimism as world gold prices have shown the first signs of declining, reaching US$385 per ounce (US$463.9 per tael) against US$388 (US$467.5 per tael) on Tuesday.

tyro: If some bank is actually talking about it out loud, I wonder what's being said behind closed doors.


Gandalf the White (9/29/03; 10:27:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 109554)
WOWSERS !!! The US$ just FELL off a CLIFF !!! STRAIGHT DOWN !!
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0
Look at the chart a the above LINK !
<;-(

Great Albino Bat (9/29/03; 10:09:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 109553)
Blackouts: fishy business?

The GAB is showing signs of paranoia. What is his latest persecution mania centered on? - The Blackouts.

The first one, August 14th. Then came London and Southeast England. Now, on Saturday, Italy was entirely blacked out (except for Sardinia).

One more blackout, and the GAB will have no remaining doubt that these events are provoked. Three in 45 days is the limit.

****

By far the most important news these past days, has been the reported advice from Xi Jianhua, the Bank of China's gold business expert, in favor of allowing individuals to trade gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange.

If the GAB reads this correctly, China is throwing down the glove in a challenge to the international monetary system. The USA's bluff is called. This is "checkmate" for paper. This is what Mr. Snow got for his efforts!

Next three months should see impressive fireworks.

Guano from the GAB.

CoBra(too) (9/29/03; 09:28:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 109552)
Just to say Hello!
In Particular to the Wiz, Gandalf, Rich and Belgian ... and thanks for your remarks.

I'll be working some more (hopefully)on meaningful responses towards the end of the week, as I'm travelling intermittantly.

Nice to see the "bop" was very short lived-at least for now and may have been the fear to let too much of physical go at the futures expiry last week. Looks like the cartel is running out of "friendly" usurpers. After all, they've had to drag out again the SNB to sell, what they've already agreed?, or better embezzled to sell anyway.

What a pathetic strategy these guys are presenting to the world at large. It seems like the US and its dollar reserve currency has put itself into a box - and from here on there seems to be no escape - as the US and its dollar is now at the mercy of their lenders.

Ok, no-one wants a meltdown of the international dollar system right away, though the US is pushing it too far already. The breaking point is out there, for all to see, and it won't last for much longer at the pace the FED (US) is pushing their paper down our throats.

I also suggest that Belgian is correct about the "confetti" � paper currency, though it's not as inundated in debt, vis a vis the US dollar, YET! Though, don't laugh at Mahatir's Gold Dinar and/or China's answer to Snow-man to liberate gold as money...

Buy the golden dips ... cb2



admin (9/29/03; 09:24:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 109551)
Gold Commentary & Review
http://www.usagold.com/AMK/MK-gold.html
Updated.

New QuickNotes

New Important Links

New Stein

_________

What this might mean to future gold demand is illustrated in the following quote from the article: "As much as 300 billion yuan (US$36.15 billion) in private money is estimated to flow into the gold market, creating demand for about 3,000 tons of gold. A market demand for 300 to 500 tons of gold will be created by individual traders in the initial stages.".....Annual world gold demand now stands at roughly 4000 tonnes with roughly 65% of the supply coming from new mine production. A surge of 3000 tonnes -- a near doubling in demand -- would jolt the market into demand driven chaos......

Gandalf the White (9/29/03; 09:21:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 109550)
WOWSERS --- LOOK at the early VOLUME !!!! <;-)
Dec 03 COMEX Contract 9/29/03 PROGRESS REPORT as of 10:44 NY time !
Open $381.3 HIGH $384.0 low $380.2 LAST $383.8
Change +$2 VOLUME = 57,420
Friday's Settlement = $381.8 and Open Interest = 204,664
PS: note that the low was ABOVE $380.0 !!
NO RED "O"'s today !
<;-)

Clink! (9/29/03; 09:12:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 109549)
Right too soon ? Gary North
http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north211.html
For all those who might worry about being right too soon !




Waverider (9/29/03; 09:04:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 109548)
Zhisheng
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1
So is Spot 'n Spike....

Boilermaker (9/29/03; 09:04:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 109547)
Italian Blackout
Here's a little more on the Italian electric blackout first posted by Waverider.

Italy's Energy Authority has launched an investigation into Sunday's massive power blackout, the authority said Monday.

Italy's grid manager GRTN that Italy was cut off from the European network in four seconds at 3.25am CET Sunday because of line problems in the French and Swiss network. The power system was unable to contain Sunday's failure to a specific area because the drop in power was so "huge and unexpected" and Enel spokesman said Monday.

When the outage occurred Italy's power demand was 24GWW. Within seconds, 6GW of imports disappeared and Italy's plants weren't geared up to step in and meet the shortfall because operators were only programmed to produce about 18GW at that time.

"It's not an Enel problem, it's a system problem," he said. The sudden shortfall "was such an unexpected and freakish event that there was no way they could get it together and respond." Enel "had no way of meeting that shortfall. The plants automatically shut off for safety reasons, otherwise there would be physical damage to them."

comment; Sunday is not a day when electric grids are at peak loads so this event was probably due to human error, ie., a dispatcher threw the wrong switch or a transmission equipment failure. This again points out the vulnerability of large interconnected systems that can cascade into darkness.
Boilermaker



Zhisheng (9/29/03; 09:03:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 109546)
Euro Pop.
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/money/cur/index.html
The Euro is acting like someone lit a fire cracker under it.

Calidor (9/29/03; 08:06:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 109545)
Diamonds as a Store of Wealth ???
http://edwardjayepstein.com/index.htm
There was some discussion on CPM about diamonds a while back. I cannot recall the particulars but as a result, I found Ed Epstein's "The Diamond Invention" to be very enlightening � about the control, marketing, and the intrinsic value myth of diamonds perpetuated by the industry (De Beers). After I read reading "all about it", it's highly unlikely my wife will see another chunk of crystallized carbon. You will find some diamond resale surprises in chapters 21 annd 22.

A couple of "Off Topic" items:

I went to my 25-year class reunion this past weekend � Virginia Military Institute. Very nice time. However, I told one of my classmates someone that I had gotten out of investments and into gold. He didn't chastise me but did give me the look that I SHOULD BE INSTITUTIONALIZED. Unfortunately for him, he is on Black Blade's bone pile, previously had worked for an investment firm in NY City.

Last month there was a lot of discussion here on the GDP, government budgets, and Information Technology spending. The Army organization I work in had already purchased 80 plus new PCs, 20 new laptops, 3 VTC gizmos, and some server do-dads. Last week my division chief started scrambling. He just received 300k to spend on IT goodies before 30 September. I don't know if it's printing press or "keystroke" money but hey, we're just doing our part to keep the economy chuggin� along.

MK � thanks for the timely delivery of gold. Those extra ounces kept us weighted down during Isabel. Fortunately we were not hit hard but the storm made Black Blade's admonitions even more relevant.


THE DIAMOND INVENTION
Snippet:
The diamond invention was an ingenious scheme for sustaining the value of diamonds in an uncertain world. To begin with, it involved gaining control over the production of all the important diamond mines in the world. Next, a system was devised for allocating this controlled supply of gems to a select number of diamond cutters who all agreed to abide by certain rules intended to assure that the quantity of finished diamonds available at any given time never exceeded the public's demand for them. Finally, a set of subtle, but effective, incentives were devised for regulating the behavior of all the people who served and ultimately profited from the system....

The invention is far more than merely a monopoly for fixing diamond prices; it is a mechanism for converting tiny crystals of carbon into universally recognized tokens of power and romance. For it to ultimately succeed, it must endow these stones with the sort of sentiment that would inhibit the public from ever reselling them onto the market. The illusion thus had to be inculcated into the mass mind that diamonds were forever-- "forever" in the sense that they could never be resold.

The invention itself was a relatively recent development in the history of the diamond trade. Up until the late nineteenth century, diamonds were a genuinely rare stone (and) the entire world production of gem diamonds amounted to only a few pounds a year.

In 1870, however, there was a radical change in this situation. Huge diamond "pipes" were discovered near the Orange River in South Africa.

These were the first diamond mines ever discovered. Now, rather than finding by chance an occasional diamond in a river, diamonds could now be scooped out of these mines by huge steam shovels. Suddenly, the market was deluged a growing flood of diamonds. The British financiers who had organized the South African mines quickly came to realize that their investment was endangered: diamonds had little intrinsic value .......


DummyANI (9/29/03; 07:56:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 109544)
@Mr Gresham (9/28/03; 09:47:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 109506)
Sir Mr Gresham and Sir cockerel1, the following is my opinion.
Japanese answers:
Japan experienced a stock-bubble, a land-bubble, and a bond-bubble at this sequence.
An investment for a land is the most expensive, and an investment for a stock and a bond is not so expensive.
During a bull-trend of the stock market(its top was Dec. 1989), there is no reverse investment trust of stocks in Japan. But since 1995-year, many reverse open investment trusts of stocks are generated in Japan.
At the last June, 2003, I think a bull-trend of Japanese government bonds-market was ended after the 13-years top (0.43 percent).
Current top ten of investment trusts are all contained reverse government bonds.
But no pension funds include investment trusts of reverse government bonds.
Consequently, I conclude that some money must be invested in the investment trusts of government bonds, according to the bull-trends or the reverse-trends under self-control. Government bond-market is generally more mild than Gold-market.



cockerel1 (9/29/03; 07:46:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 109543)
Gandalf the White - msg#: 109538

Sir Gandalf, being from Alberta, I think I can say with all honesty that if American Eagles were presented for payment, any "goldwise" business or individual would gladly "deal".

As far as "Legal Tender", the only institutions that do NOT recognize U.S. coinage are banks and government institutions. U.S. coinage, at par, is plentiful in the money system throughout Western Canada. As tourism is a large part of our economy in both B.C. and Alberta, we do not impose restrictions on too many things. We even import American Beef!

P.S. and the coinage is worth 36% more than the Canadian equivalent.

DummyANI (9/29/03; 06:55:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 109542)
@misetich (9/28/03; 10:01:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 109507)
Sir Misetich, Sir Dollar Bill ,Thanks for your comment.

A financially serious part quoted here.
�gFor eight years, the bank's management - like every other financial institution in Japan - kept playing for time by concealing its problems, hoping that the economy would recover and make the problems go away. But the recovery never came, and in 1998 LTCB became the world's biggest bank failure. It had at least $50bn of bad loans on its books - shocking by any measure, but only a small part of the $1,000bn-plus of bad loans recently seen in the Japanese banking system.�h
D-ANI---comment: The $1,000bn-plus of bad loans recently seen in the Japanese banking system have not been diminished substantially at all since 1998, they are buried land-mines, and they are recently combined with bond-market crash.
Nevertheless, G-7 Dubai meeting declared a rising-Yen policy, in which I am very glad at a strong Yen as Japanese, in the case of Japanese banking crash a foreigner having Yen will be damaged seriously like as Argentine.
An axiom of economics is very simple, and an ordeal of GOLD is very severe.
Any banks which have not a gold are bad banks. These banks conceals something. Bank of Japan has only 1.66 percent of gold-reserves for her foreign currency reserves.
If Japanese commercial banks can buy a gold instead of Government bonds, they can survive current money-wars.
D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen


Operative (9/29/03; 04:14:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 109541)
Clark Parlayed Military Background Into Budding Business Career Before Bid for President
http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAAWRE36LD.html
Clark Parlayed Military Background Into Budding Business Career Before Bid for President

snips

Clark's relationship with WaveCrest is just one example of how he has parlayed his 35 years of military experience into a budding business career in the three years since retiring from the Army as a four-star general.
He serves on the boards of at least four other companies, worked as a military consultant for Cable News Network and started his own consulting firm in his hometown of Little Rock, Ark.
Clark's entry into the business world was facilitated by the Stephens Group, the parent company of a privately held family financial giant in Little Rock that operates one of the largest investment banks off Wall Street.
The influential company has been on the periphery of several Washington political scandals in the past three decades, from the resignation of former President Jimmy Carter's budget director in 1977 to the campaign fund-raising investigations of the mid-1990s.
Clark joined the Stephens Group as a managing director for merchant banking in mid-2001. That December, Acxiom Inc., a Little Rock data analysis company, signed a $300,000 contract with Stephens to obtain Clark's help in lobbying the government for homeland security business.
Clark joined Acxiom's board at the same time, and after leaving Stephens earlier this year, he signed another $150,000 consulting agreement with the company. That contract was terminated when he announced for president, according to Acxiom, but he remains a paid board member.
en d

Comment: Stick a fork in it, America is done. This article points out that the people behind the power in this country will only serve up more of the same when it comes to choices for our leaders. "they" whoever they are control the govt, and Wall st. Most Americans are 1. too stupid 2. dont care enough to know. 3. dont have the guts, or all the above to change what has to be done. Gold/Silver will only cure a small part of what ails this country and its citizens, but at least we still have the chance to buy/hold the last vestige of freedom. For how long? I say, not long.

DummyANI (9/29/03; 01:38:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 109540)
Mitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:
Date: Net short changes Pre.COMEX-close
Sep. 11 27,754�c plus0512 �c 381.1(Dec.2003)
Sep. 12 27,810�c plus0056 �c 380.8
Sep. 15 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....376.9
Sep. 16 28,672�c plus0862 �c.375.6
Sep. 17 32,011�c plus3339�c.. 374.6
Sep. 18 26,405. minus5606�c...377.3
Sep. 19 29,971�c.plus3566�c...377.7
Sep. 22 29,705. minus0266�c...382.9
Sep. 23 .. nil�c ..�cnil�c �c�c....388.3
Sep. 24 27,807. minus1898�c...387.0
Sep. 25 31,971�c plus4164�c...388.4
Sep. 26 34,212�c plus2241�c...385.9
Sep. 29 36,535�c plus2323�c...381.8

D-ANI:TOCOM is the most cheap gold-market of the world.

D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen


Black Blade (9/29/03; 00:02:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 109539)
Silver Maple
A few years ago when silver threatened to fall below the $5 Canadian level I recall the mint said they would only honor the value of the silver and not the face value.

- Black Blade



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