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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 6/29/2003
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Waverider
(06/29/03; 23:54:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 105233)
S&P affirms Japan ratings, outlook still negative
http://feeds.bignewsnetwork.com/redir.php?jid=9ec9f04457aacdab
Snip:
"Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today affirmed its 'AA-/A-1+' sovereign ratings on Japan. The outlook remains negative, reflecting continuing difficulty for the government in addressing its most pressing economic problems. In the short term it will be very difficult for Japan to deal with its pressing problems: to overcome deflation; to improve banking sector nonperforming loans; and to stabilize fiscal deficits and the debt burden. If deflation is not contained, banking system NPLs and government's finances will deteriorate and undermine the ratings on the sovereign," said Takahira Ogawa, credit analyst at Standard & Poor's. Standard & Poor's expects Japan's general government deficit to remain about 8% of GDP for several years. With continued weak growth prospects and deflation, Japan's current fiscal stance will prove to be an ever-growing burden. "Adjustment, if any, is only likely to occur after 2010, when Japan's gross general government debt will have risen above 200% of GDP, unless there is monetization of fiscal debt through inflation," said Mr. Ogawa."
TownCrier
(06/29/03; 23:17:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 105232)
No surprise from China
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030629/economy_china_bank_1.html
excerpts:
HEADLINE: China's c. bank does not see yuan revaluation
BASEL, Switzerland, June 29 (Reuters) - China's Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said on Sunday he did not see the possibility of the yuan being revalued higher.
Asked if the yuan would be revalued soon, Zhou told Reuters on the sidelines of an annual meeting of the Bank for International Settlements: "I don't see the possibility of yuan revaluation. We have some control over our capital account."
U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow repeated on Thursday that China should be encouraged to move towards a more flexible exchange rate and that he would back any plan to do so.
China's central bank and the State Foreign Exchange Administration have dismissed calls for a revaluation.
[Randy's note: Seems that China knows very well how to let an "opponent's" own pressure and momentum work against the rival. Could it ever get to the point where Snow actually asks the world to drop the dollar as reserve currency? I doubt that far, but you get the point.]
Elsewhere, commenting on China's huge foreign exchange reserves, Zhou said: "We _had_ lost some money on the euro, but we've determined to have a quite significant portion of euros as our reserves."
China's foreign exchange reserves, above US$300 billion as of end-May, are the second biggest in the world after Japan's.
There is increasing speculation in the foreign exchange markets that central banks have finally begun to increase the share of their foreign currency reserves denominated in euros, following the European currency's spectacular rally since last year to a record high above $1.1930 in May.
At end-2001, the IMF estimated the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves at almost 70 percent, dwarfing the second-placed euro's 13 percent.
-----(see url)------
A seventy percent dollar fraction means this and this only -- there is little room for the dollar to gain, and LOTS of room for the dollar to fall. This is one good reason to diversify your portfolio with supreme gold.
Call Centennial Monday for easy access to this ultimate hard asset.
R.
Goldilox
(06/29/03; 22:47:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 105231)
Newmont Yandel Offer news
From Newmont's press release:
snippit:
DENVER, Jun 27, 2003 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via Comtex/ -- Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM, Trade) today announced that it has received tenders totaling $196.8 million (representing 83%) in response to its offer through its subsidiary, Yandal Bond Company Limited (YBCL) to acquire the $237.2 million in principal amount of the outstanding 87/8% Senior Notes (the Notes) due April 2008 issued by Newmont's Australian subsidiary, Newmont Yandal Operations Pty. Ltd. (Yandal), not already owned by YBCL. Yandal is the former Newmont Yandal Operations Limited and Great Central Mines Ltd.
YBCL will purchase all tendered Notes. YBCL will now hold a total of $259.6 million of the full principal $300 million of the Notes, including the $62.8 million YBCL already owned prior to this offer.
YBCL has given notice to the depositary that it has received valid tenders of Notes and consents to the proposed amendments to the indenture pursuant to which the Notes were issued from holders of a majority in principal amount of the outstanding Notes not currently owned by YBCL. Under the terms of the offer, those who tendered no longer have withdrawal rights. Yandal has advised YBCL that Yandal and its subsidiaries that have guaranteed the Notes will promptly meet with the trustee under the indenture to sign a supplemental indenture effecting the amendments to the Notes and the indenture.
To allow bond holders more time to assess these developments, YBCL has extended the consent payment deadline and the expiration of the Note offer by five business days to close at 5:00 p.m., New York City time, on Thursday, July 3, 2003, with respect to Notes not validly tendered on or prior to June 26, 2003. In accordance with the procedures set forth in the offer to purchase, on or before July 1, 2003, YBCL will pay the purchase price of $480 for each $1,000 principal amount and consent payment of $20 for each $1,000 principal amount of Notes validly tendered on or prior to June 26, 2003.
YBCL's offer to acquire the hedge positions of Yandal's only hedge counterparty that did not accept YBCL's previous May 29, 2003 offer to the counterparties expired at close of business in New York City today. The hedge counterparty has not extended its agreement to forbear demanding payment from Yandal of the amount that would be due if an early termination event occurred under Yandal's hedge contract. This counterparty has not yet demanded payment. Through acceptances of the counterparty offer, YBCL currently holds Yandal hedge positions of $154 million of the total of $202 million negative mark-to-market liability of Yandal's entire hedge positions as of May 22, 2003. Thus, YBCL holds approximately $413.6 million of obligations owed by Yandal.
glennh10
(06/29/03; 21:47:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 105230)
Re: Liu, Euro vs. Dollar
He seems to be describing a "sustainable" parasite/host type of relationship, where those who are export-benefitting from the U.S. (Europe, Japan, for example) are expected to internally bear the cost of not "killing off" the host (dollar). Those who are proposing this arrangement are assuming that these countries will submit to this, rather than face the loss of the U.S. import market via a dropping dollar.
The whole theory seems like hogwash, though, because, either way, they're going to lose. It seems a lot more likely that they would take action at some point to save their own skin, while the opportunity still existed.
Goldendome
(06/29/03; 19:16:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 105229)
On the road to Zero Bound
http://www.jsmineset.com/s/Home.asp
Thanks to Gresham and S.C. for pointing out the significance of the article again linked above.
James Sinclair states that in an all-time blunder Chairman Greenshpan indicated in May that the Fed. was prepared to buy bonds in all the sprectrum of maturities to support bond price and cap interest rates. Says Sinclair, when you make a boast of this nature, you had better be prepared to back it up. Sinclair says the Fed. failed the bluff test last week when the Japanese for a change were net sellers of bonds. The Fed. was not there as promised and the bonds were sold into a falling market of rising interest rates. Sinclair indicates that this type of behavior could get the Fed. buried if the markets percieve the bond put promise as just so much more hot air and nervous holders decide to be among the first out the door.
Sinclair goes on to add that even if the bond put is effectively used, the increasing monetary aggregates created by their purchase in large numbers will effectively drive the dollar lower, thereby inducing more sellers who want their money back before the dollar drops any lower. At some point the whole thing could accelerate down as the dollar drops lower; posibly bankrupting the country.
Dollar Bill
(06/29/03; 19:12:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 105228)
*>*...............-l-..............
Liu is actually guessing at this, and historically he is incorrect.
"It is the equivalent of the Romans' brilliant strategy
in making a dissident Jew a Christian god, to pre-empt the domination of Judaism over the Roman empire"
R Powell
(06/29/03; 18:02:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 105227)
Belgian
If I'm understanding right, Liu is convinced that those that have accumulated dollars via trade imbalances will eventually need to support the value of those accumulated dollars. Doesn't this imply that they will hold those dollars even though there is a threat that the dollars' value is depreciating? Is Liu assuming that the dollar holders can't / haven't / won't exchange them for something/anything else?
I've read opinions that there is simply too much (too great a store, trillions) of dollars held so that any mass liquidation would bring down the house. I find this hard to believe. I guess I'm just too sceptical to believe that there is that much co-operation among a world full of dollar holders. Imho the dollar holders will exchange them if they perceive the need/fear/advantage. I'm not saying it won't happen, in fact I wonder why it hasn't already. I just wonder why defending the dollar value will become necessary instead of simply exchanging them?
Rich
Ten Bears
(06/29/03; 17:07:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 105226)
Mr.Gresham...McFadden
Thanks for the kind words...McFadden had much in common with the late Congressman Wright Patman ( 1st District, Texas)...an interesting populist philosophy from the late 19th century, influenced by the New Deal programs of the 1930's. Patman claimed the FBI rifled through his files on a regular basis. His views are worth the read, and may be found through Google search engine.
Belgian
(06/29/03; 16:33:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 105225)
@ Old Yeller
Right you are : Something - Somebody has to give...Because we are ALL risking to fall prey of a general "Liquidity Trap" !!! AKA, a sudden lack of enough *market*, increasing the risk premiums ! Not an encouraging event for the dollar-system, at present when monetary and fiscal policies don't give a iota !
We are all heading into the extremes of *** POLITICAL ECONOMIES ***. Economies completely dominated by politics through ever increasing interventions. There is NO such thing as a brilliant strategy, applicable to this anymore.
Cfr. Fekete's choice between Scylla (global deflation) and Charybdis (global runaway inflation) ! Wich one is the ugliest ?
A FREE MARKET FOR GOLD will be the basis for the next system. The debt incubus saddling the world is sapping the vitality of the world economy !
Belgian
(06/29/03; 16:07:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 105224)
Old Yeller - Liu 's response to the gang8
Liu :... By allowing a trade surplus denominated in dollars to be accumulated by non-dollar economies (yen-euro-yuan), the cost of support the value of the dollar is then shifted to these non-dollar economies, wich manifest in low wages and weak domestic consumption in these economies...
It is a (dollar) strategy to make the EU a structural supporter of a rising dollar in the long run.
I am wrestling with the translation of this brilliant "strategy", seen by Liu. Help wellcomed.
A temporary declining dollar as to secure a later long run dollar-rise ? A gifted "trade surplus" as a Trojan horse ???
Or to put it in other words, another wave of expanding dollarization into Euroland, China and Japan ?
More dollar-flooding = prolonged dollar-use !?
If this is effecting in low wages and weak domestic consumption into the main tree to be dollarized evermore...is it implicating that wages in the US will rise and consumption will increase ?
Where does Liu's sudden demonization of the anti-dollar "crowd" comes from, when it is exactly him who is constantly emphasizing the colonial effects of dollar hegemony ?
How is a rising dollar in the long run going to hold the dollar-system together with a rising trade deficit ???
Rising deficits = printing more of the same !? Common Liu !
Thoughts anyone ? Please !
Old Yeller
(06/29/03; 15:56:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 105223)
ANOTHER
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gang8/message/8755
Interesting post from Henry CK on Japan's and other dollar
chasing exporter's dilemmas.
"The current round of global deflation is caused by weak
demand resulting from the effects of dollar hegemony as
sustained by a global central banking regime regulated by
the BIS."
Something,or'somebody,has to give.
CoBra(too)
(06/29/03; 15:07:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 105222)
Re-Silver at Jim P's Broadcast
@Mikal & R.P.
First of all it was towards the end of the show that it was brought up.
Don't exactly know who of the gents answered the ag question with stating that ag has outperformed gold 10:1 before - and it easily could happen again.
Jim Puplava also mentioned he's just in the process of writing a piece about silver, which should be online soon.
The overall conclusion of the round table was that the usual 5-10% of PM portfolio insurance might not be sufficient at this time and it was recommended to double that segment up to 20%.
I'm personally invested up to 60% in PM's and other hard assets, like energy and water issues and have nil other exposure to financial assets. Except some cash, a few essential bbl's of - no, not oil - single malts and have my own fresh water well. Chug a lug - cb2
Old Yeller
(06/29/03; 14:32:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 105221)
Henry CK Liu,Dollar vs. Euro
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gang8/message/8912
A stealth Plaza Accord,formulated,in time,to make the euro
subservient to the USD?
GoldCoaster
(06/29/03; 14:29:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 105220)
(No Subject)
www.gulf-news.com/Articles/news.asp?ArticleID=91392
Non-resident Indians (NRIs) now heading home for the holidays know this and, therefore, buy their gold in the UAE. The NRIs also find that just as the holidays approach they are deluged with requests from friends and relatives to bring gold
Belgian
(06/29/03; 13:26:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 105219)
@ Henry
Same story for the ugly, unwilling, ungratefull Belgian dwarfs coming into the states. Many on the next flight out !
Now that Afghanistan and Iraq are under control (?)...what's the reason for keeping up such a high level of (counterproductive) security ?
How do you interprete this ? More invasions to follow ?
What is de "real" purpose of the constant high alert ? TIA.
R Powell
(06/29/03; 13:10:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 105218)
CoBra(too)
Regarding that Paplava interview you said....
"Towards the end Jim P. asked about silver - the positive echo was almost deafening"
I'm aware of his interviews but, alas, my computer does not speak. Did any of them offer anything new?
Thanks,
Rich
Mr Gresham
(06/29/03; 13:08:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 105217)
Yes, but do you think he disliked the Fed? ;)
http://www.agora-inc.com/reports/RCKN/Speech/
McFadden is always a fascinating read (kinda matches Gen. Smedley Butler in the international relations dept.), and you just have to be moved by the passion.
If I had witnessed the events below, and we yet may, I might have the same vision of evil conveyed by McFadden. For now, all I can see it as is a scheme, an abstraction upon people's need for a money and their faith in paternal government, and a traveling con show that is about to pack up and leave town, with all of the citizens' jewelry already shipped on ahead.
Just amazing that it lasted this long, but then, it had a sheltered, productive land, and an industrious people to prey on. I think the enormity of the con is what makes it hard for us to believe, as when we first read Griffin's book, and many of us report the initial shock, and how long an interval it takes to sink in. McFadden is another installment in that chain of peaks from which we view the game plan below. (Is FOA "Another" such peak, me wonders?)
(I still can't figure out how all those bank branches, on just about every street corner, support themselves, _except_ by some such scheme as this...)
"Recently in one of our States, 60,000 dwelling houses and farms were brought under the hammer in a single day. 71,000 houses and farms in Oakland County, Michigan, were sold and their erstwhile owners dispossessed. The people who have thus been driven out are the wastage of the Fed. They are the victims of the Fed. Their children are the new slaves of the auction blocks in the revival of the institution of human slavery.
"The Scheme of the Fed
"In 1913, before the Senate Banking and Currency Committee, Mr. Alexander Lassen made the following statement: "The whole scheme of the Fed with its commercial paper is an impractical, cumbersome machinery- is simply a cover to secure the privilege of issuing money, and to evade payment of as much tax upon circulation as possible and then control the issue and maintain, instead of reducing interest rates. It will prove to the advantage of the few and the detriment of the people. It will mean continued shortage of actual money and further extension of credits, for when there is a shortage of money people have to borrow to their cost.' "A few days before the Fed passed, Senator Root denounced the Fed as an outrage on our liberties. He predicted: 'Long before we wake up from our dream of prosperity through an inflated currency, our gold- which alone could have kept us from catastrophe- will have vanished and no rate of interest will tempt it to return.'
"If ever a prophecy came true, that one did."
Shapur
(06/29/03; 12:22:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 105216)
Silver
Silver made a low back in 1993 I believe (someone can check it out) at 3.80 or so. It has not made a fresh low below that low so far, where as gold made a low in the 250 range in 1998/1999. So silver has not been in a bear market longer than gold during the past 12 years.
Silver will move when the last obvious ounce is used up. And I do not believe in secret surplus piles or other hidden areas of supply.
Shapur
(06/29/03; 12:16:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 105215)
@mikal regarding silver
So far silver has held its own versus a dollar that has gone from 122 to 92. I would say silver has done very well!!!
silvercollector
(06/29/03; 11:52:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 105214)
Iraqi elections cancelled by U.S.
http://torontostar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1056838210022&call_pageid=968332188492&col=968793972154
silvercollector
(06/29/03; 11:50:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 105213)
Death on the road to Basra
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/3025800.stm
"She tells me how she saw her 11-year-old brother, Muhannad, had run up to an American military convoy trying to sell something to the soldiers, but was run over as he crossed the road.
The Americans did not stop. "
mikal
(06/29/03; 11:46:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 105212)
@CoBra(too)
I see where you have mentioned their conclusions regarding gold, bonds, the dollar and stock markets. But can you say why they think silver would be a comparable investment to gold, given it's underperformance recently? That is, have they unearthed something new, or can I continue to have faith in just the myriad of other arguments for Ag? It's a relative question for me personally as I attempt to maximize my ROI in both metals by periodically trading silver for gold(after years of trading incrementally from Au to Ag).
I and others as you know, have made a case for gold over silver, but never advocated holding only gold. Reasons include hidden stockpiles of foreign Ag, superior gold investment, banking and monetary demand(i.e. Euro, Dinar, possibly Yuan, Yen, Dollar, etc.) and possible gold media hype. But I look forward to any opinions, which I may sieze upon gleefully if not convulsively, chanting over and over: "Finders keepers, losers weepers".
silvercollector
(06/29/03; 11:39:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 105211)
Blix packs his bags
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3029470.stm
Mr Gresham
(06/29/03; 11:24:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 105210)
Fekete archive
http://www.goldisfreedom.com/Archives/feketearchives.htm
I know better than to get started reading this on a Sunday morning -- there goes the rest of the day! But for you more daring types...
GE is also chockfull of some interesting looking headlines beckoning me to let the grass grow another weekend.
HENRI -- good to see you back in the saddle.
TEN BEARS -- Your word of life is still strong. I reckon so.
Sinclair seems to have gotten us rolling again -- Treasuries topping out are his fifth element he's waiting for. Then, as he explains this time, gold takes the place of T-bonds as the safe haven. The bull market in bonds slides on over into gold. (He says it much better than I.)
And, Fekete has explained why there WERE these bond bull markets, both in the 1930s, and recently. I don't think anyone else has presented that element of the bigger picture. Too bad we can't get ALL of our "wise men" together to explain these "Endgame" moves of Al G.
mikal
(06/29/03; 11:24:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 105209)
@Cobra2
What were some of the highlights of the interview? TIA.
CoBra(too)
(06/29/03; 10:57:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 105208)
Silver? The Poor Man's Gold ...
Hey Rich,
wonder if you've listened in to Puplava's brodcast this Saturday. It was a two hour round table conference with real heavyweights as Richard Russel, Keenedy Grammage, Peter Eliades and Tim Wood.
All of the expect gold to rise, the dollar and the SM's to tank and the bond and RE bubbles to deflate.
Towards the end Jim P. asked about silver - the positive echo was almost deafening.
Cheers cb2
Boilermaker
(06/29/03; 10:55:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 105207)
Spotlight
Good to hear from you and I echo others who have welcomed you. Clearly you have seen and learned alot already. Many of us on this forum have various forms of non-physical precious metal investments. In my case it's a trying to squeeze a little more leverage on a "sure bet". But when the day of reckoning comes and gold takes off most of the mines will become nationalized or "profit controlled" through excess profits taxes as was oil when the crunch came in the 70's.
In my limited knowledge of securities, convertible bonds have two main components of valuation, interest rate and underlying stock value. Belgian mentioned the liklihood that IR's will "skyrocket" so that that component of CB valuation will be declining rapidly possibly offsetting the underlying conversion value. But with 80% physical and at age 82, we will allow you to make up your own mind.
Cheers and God Bless,
Boilermaker
R Powell
(06/29/03; 10:48:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 105206)
Joanne
From post 105198, your question.....
"Regarding silver, I keep remembering a post I think I read here (I learn EVERYTHING here) about Bush going to visit Fox in Mexico City and ever since then, the silver price barely moving, the theory being that silver is coming into the US from Mexico but not through the usual exchanges and at a much better price than four-something. Is this a possibility?"
Anything is possible but I find it highly unlikely. I believe the president has many, much more important issues than the supply or demand of silver. Gold maybe, but not silver. I believe the rumor you are refering to may have been started by a fellow called Endgame. He also has stated that because the POS has NOT reacted to these many years of a perceived shortfall between supply and demand that, (and therefore) the reported deficit very likely does NOT exist. I take my fiqures from the GFMS Silver Survey but even these numbers are suspect and always succeptible to revisions. These numbers confirm the ongoing deficit. If there is a better or more reliable source of information, please let me know.
Actually, Mexican silver production fell recently but further examination brought to light that some Mexican ore was being refined in Texas, thus distorting the "production" numbers of both countries. Over the years many have searched for an answer to why the POS does not react to decreasing supplies. Endgame and others feel there must be large unreported stores available to the market. I do not agree for many reasons. Others like Morgan and Butler look for evidence of a conspiracy of manipulation to keep the POS low (below primary mine production costs!) Again, imho, I do not agree. I have put forth some speculation as to why the POS does not react to the fundamental numbers but even this opinion is full of unsubstantiated conclusions. It is a great puzzle!!
I guess with for any speculation to offer a great return, there must exist an anomaly in price, whether much too high or too low. I'm always playing devil's advocate trying to find the flaw in the agruement that the laws of supply and demand will eventually (soon?) take the POS much higher. I haven't been able to refute this basic premise.
Any thoughts?
Happy weekend !
Rich
Ten Bears
(06/29/03; 09:38:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 105205)
Sir Isaac's quote ...The Invisible Hand
I am not certain to which part in my last post you are referring with Sir Isaac's quote. However, if it is the fact that current borrowings may be repaid with devalued dollars (not the same unit of measure), point conceded.
However,it is necessary to remember that a depreciating currency is a tax on savings which falls most heavily on the elderly and retired. Considering the current demographics in the U.S., the largest segment of the population is at the most risk from current policies.
mikal
(06/29/03; 09:02:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 105204)
Amended link
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/siebholz062903.html
Correct link
mikal
(06/29/03; 08:55:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 105203)
Bullion banks, derivatives, Barrick, debt...
http://www.gold-eagle.com/edtorials03_/siebholz062903.html
Barrick's Hedge Book - A Recipe for Disaster?
Dietmar Siebholz
"Derivatives - Weapons of financial Mass Destruction" -Warren Buffet -Excerpt:
"...The ongoing accumulation of physical gold in the Eastern hemisphere leads to a factual re-distribution of real gold holdings from West to East. He who has the gold makes the rules…
The extremely low interest rate environment has all but destroyed the advantages of the gold carry trade.
The delivery and cover obligations in kind are still binding for the hedgers and shorting hedge funds.
Weak US dollar will lead to forced short-covering according to risk management rule without gold necessarily rising against competing currencies. In the longer run, however, it may be expected that gold will appreciate against all currencies as competitive de-valuations, known as beggar thy neighbour policies, will be adopted.
The Blanchard vs JPM/Barrick suit may well shed some light onto the risk distribution between the 2 parties on their mutual forward sales contracts.
The new Maginot line for gold at 370$/oz, defended as it seems in the moment, will give way rather sooner than later. If the Blanchard suit proceeds to discovery and the Yandal deal becomes known in its gory details, it may be sooner than many think."
The Invisible Hand
(06/29/03; 08:42:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 105202)
One more quotation for Ten Bears
"In applied mathematics, you must describe your unit." - Isaac Newton
Henri
(06/29/03; 08:31:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 105201)
Most Disturbing
Don't know how long it has been going on or whether it was a recent innovation, but while standing at a bank teller's window with at least eight TV monitors trained on me, I made a simple transaction. A simple advance of $100 on a VISA card. Along with my card, I was asked to supply two picture ID's. Since I did not have an account at the bank. I was also asked to place my thumbprint on the credit ticket! Twice both copies. As if my ID's and my signature and my TV smile were not sufficient.
I harbor no illusion that my prints are not already on file everywhere from every thing from gun permits to nuclear plant access, However, this is the first time I was required to submit one by a non-governmental agency.
Seems a bit of an invasion or just govt easy fix on how to collect biometrics on the entire population. Constitutional?
They said if I had an account they wouldn't need the FP. I wonder if I need an FP to open an account?
gotta laugh for the cameras anyway
Ten Bears
(06/29/03; 08:25:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 105200)
Scattershooting while wondering what happened to ORO and PANDAGOLD
"The only explanation for (Greenspan's) lack of insight is the extraordinary low level of scientific understanding which managers of fiat currency have or might have", Prof. Fekete (6/24/03)
There are those who disagree with the good professor's contention that a lack of foresight is the reason for the disastrous Fed policies over the last fifteen years.A previous poster to this site (Panda gold) noted that the rulers have a very long-term agenda and are in no way lacking in knowledge,insight or ability.If one accepts this view, the question becomes "Why are policies pursued which have led to the exportation of the American manufacturing base,the importation of poverty via immigration rules,a general declining standard for eighty+ percent of Americans,a 90's stock mkt. scam bubble which filched trillions from the middle and working classes and will lead inevitably to a severe dollar decline? Anyone listing can clearly hear the "great sucking sound" referred to by Ross Perot in the early 90's. The apparent attempt to replace lost manufacturing and export earnings with easy loans has just about run its course, since borrowing increases current consumption at the expense of future consumption. The most obvious explanation for the disastrous policies pursued over the last three decades (and at an increasing rate for the last 15 years)is that those with the franchise are intent on reducing the consumption level of Americans to more closely approximate the level of less developed countries.
"In times such as these, educated men should not refrain from stating the obvious." Lord Keynes
"When in doubt, tell the truth. It will confound your enemies and astound your friends." Mark Twain
"The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. Both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists." Ernest Hemingway
Belgian
(06/29/03; 06:23:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 105199)
@ Spotlight
I don't see any special advantage in holding a (modern-?) convertible bond of a good miner or any other non goldmining company. These convertible bond-products are more of the same derivatives (on derivatives). Have you already been reading the "small" texts on many of these convertibles ? Often, they contain very nasty, unexpected surprises. The main succes of these convertibles was due to the fact of ever declining IRs and the general public was ready to accept much more (unknown) risks for relative higher IRs ! Convertible bonds are NOT produced with the purpose of providing "you" with an extra, charitable profit.
I would prefer to *gamble* on a *good*, reliable and undervalued miner ! Emphasis on "gamble" ! Before, it was generally called, speculation. Goldmine gambling has always been a risky business and the risk reward factors have increased-detoriated,... as always imvho.
Sure, many savers are looking-shopping for IR-income ! I've sold all my fixed income some time ago FOR PHYSICAL GOLD.
With only one exception of the goldminer GFI, providing a relative safe and nice dividend on my purchasing price, when undervalued below 4 € per share.
Haven't been adding since.
I remain convinced that IRs will skyrocket (double) again in the not so very distant future. Higher IRs = higher POG !
and price-inflation...hyper-inflation. Not exactly a nice environment for holding bonds, at present, if ever again ?
Sometimes it is better to do nothing than to jump up and down with mounting losses and rising risks.
Be careful Sir ! Congrats with your vitality !
@ Silvercollector : As a mean of retaliation for the Blair-attacks, BBC was excluded from having interviews with Putin on his visit to the UK. Paul Bremer stated he wants to catch Saddam ASAP. Accumulating evidence that the Iraqi affair was (is) that first of maybe many more steps too far. This remains a heavy mortgage on the dollar that will not go away. It was not a coincidence that the low profile Britisch troops were brought under the spotlight (not the poster of course) with another atrocity on men, simply doing their job.
The Middle East, Arabian oil, is evolving into a very important factor, affecting the euro-dollar relationships.
Joanne
(06/29/03; 06:20:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 105198)
R. Powell
Regarding silver, I keep remembering a post I think I read here (I learn EVERYTHING here) about Bush going to visit Fox in Mexico City and ever since then, the silver price barely moving, the theory being that silver is coming into the US from Mexico but not through the usual exchanges and at a much better price than four-something. Is this a possibility?
silvercollector
(06/29/03; 05:02:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 105197)
Blair has impaled himself on the horns of an American dilemma
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/opinion/27_06_03_b.asp
..post-Iraq opinion..
ge
(06/29/03; 04:16:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 105196)
Links to some free e-books
"Fiat Money Inflation in France" by Andrew Dickson White, is a book mentioned in the recent commentaries of The Mogambo Guru:
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_headline.cfm?id=3281
Free e-text from Project Gutenberg
http://onlinebooks.library.upenn.edu/webbin/gutbook/lookup?num=6949
There is also a free e-version of "Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" by Charles Mackay,
http://www.econlib.org/library/Mackay/macExContents.html
spotlight
(06/29/03; 04:03:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 105195)
Silver
R.Powell
I have been luke warm on silver, altho I have a position in physical. It just seems that supply must be coming from somewhere. That situation existed even before China started exporting. I don't like mysteries. I've heard reports for years about the shotage of silver. However, my gut feeling tells me it should have shown up by now.
Gold,on the other hand, can be used to stave off a monetary collapse, which is, I believe coming right about the time James Sinclair has projected. In the mean time, we all have to use cash in our daily lives. However, that doesn't mean we have to keep large amounts in banks or even T-debt accounts. As I stated before, if one has already acquired the insurance physical Gold and Silver can provide, I believe that a good convertible bond in a good producing gold mine is a wise place to place excess cash. I also do not believe it should be crime to mention this on this site, as long as I have stated the case for physical as a first choice, which I firmly believe.
Belgian
(06/29/03; 02:51:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 105194)
INTEREST RATES
We are provided with insights as to "how" IRs are lowered and we get a daily menu, full of possible reasons-justifications, "why", low/lower IRs are oh so good.
Now, that it becomes obvious to many, that low/lower IRs, AREN'T resorting any effect, wrong effects...we better start looking for the "real" reasons for the organized IR debauche.
My amateuristic conclusions : 1/ A "refinance" carroussel and 2/ A nice, official, present to the broader financial brotherhood (banks included) under the form of guaranteed profits !
Any general price-inflation goes with rising IRs ! The past/present, price-deflation was/is not organized or an effect of the policies, but the result of a "coagulating" global economy that reached a saturation point in healthy offer/demand balance, burdened-accompagned with unsustainable-destructive, Debts. A DEBT DRIVEN ARTIFICIAL HYPER ECONOMY !
All policies hyper focussed on the sole purpose of keeping this mania going. Maniacal Refinancing the growing debts as to oil consumption...bond (paper)profits as to provide artificial (book)profits for the merchants of debts.
Las Vegas is stuck !
Now, the unwinding process has to take place. It is in this coming phase that GOLD is going to show a BIG, ear to ear smile, for a very looooongggggggg time !
The "International" value (?) of the US$-reserve will come under the central focus in this impossible unwinding.
And indeed, as Sinclair states correctly,... It is THE RATE OF CHANGE THAT MATTERS, not only in economy but in almost everything. Velocity, with wich things do happen.
Apply this to the coming evolution of the US$ in the International arena. Remember how fast (rate of change) the euro recouped its exch. rate loss against the dollar !
Most probably, phase two is in the make.
Remember how the POG 330$-350$ zone was a very important one, from many standpoints ! The rate of change in POG will increase as the almost a decade of maniacal interventionist manipulation is to unwind...out of control !
I am not worried about the future of the global economy...but IT IS THE DOLLAR that is the centerpiece-axis of the global economic/financial happening-future. QUO VADIS DOLLAR ??? Live "with" the dollar if possible or live "without" it if necessary !? If we like it or not, but this question will be pushed, increasingly to the forefront. Let us not forget that the USUKAUS, Middle East AND Eurasian adventures, boil down to the struggle between dollar and euro !!! With Tony Blair under further attack and US elections coming closer,...cornered rats might make funny jumps !?
The present summer period seems as a "position clear up" to me. Will see what happens next ?
The Invisible Hand
(06/29/03; 02:29:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 105193)
The barbarous relic or barbaric relic?
http://www.inq7.net/brk/2003/jun/29/brkpol_2-1.htm
Jun. 29, 2003
Agence France-Presse
MAYOR IN GOLD MINE FEUD SHOT DEAD
Davao City - A gunman shot and killed a Philippine mayor embroiled in a struggle to control operations of a gold rush site in the southern island of Mindanao, police said Sunday.
Joel Brillantes died on the spot late Saturday after being shot by a suspect identified as Anecito Dejito, who was himself later killed by the politician's bodyguards.
Brillantes had been feuding with miners after his company wrested control of the Diwalwal gold rush site in the town of Monkayo.
The Phillipines president's office had intervened in the dispute two years ago in favor of the miners who agreed to form a cooperative and set aside 15 percent of their earnings for the government.
Police said they were investigating whether the killing was connected to the dispute.
Goldendome
(06/29/03; 00:30:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 105192)
California public employees faceing reductions to minimum wage level
http://64.29.208.119/creditbubblebulletin.asp
For two years, news has warned of California's growing financial imbalance. Up to this point the Golden State has been able to use a series of gimmicks (including bond sales to capture, now, their tobacco settlement largess) to postpone the day of reckoning. Now as Doug Noland points out in his weekly Credit Bubble Bulletin, time may be running out--the next cuts may be delivered by the cruel sword of the credit markets. [Excerpts]
... with a budget crater of somewhere between $29 billion and $38 billion, state coffers nearly depleted of cash, and lenders increasingly apprehensive, the Golden State is finally approaching The Wall. Last week the state's finance director stated, "California is broke. We are operating as of today completely on borrowed money, and we have no collateral left for additional borrowing capacity."
California now receives the lowest S&P Credit rating of any state, with yields about 40 basis points wider than bonds issued by fiscally challenged New York and Texas. Last week the state sold 30-year bonds at 5.0% (8.4% tax-adjusted yield), about 64 basis points wider than AAA state credits. This spread was up 14 basis points from April, as virtually every other spread narrowed sharply. A Fitch spokesperson was quoted by Bloomberg: "California can't go on forever living on borrowed money. At some point, the market is going to change its mind" about lending.
Republican lawmakers are resolute in their pledge to not allow tax increases. The democrats are equally resolved to avoid the draconian program cuts that would be required to get the state's fiscal house in any semblance of order.
During budget crises in previous years (last year's budget was not signed until Sept. 5) the state has not had to cut off much money, but this year is different. A California Supreme Court ruling in May gives [State Controler] Westly very little flexibility. That decision came in response to Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Assn. lawsuit to force lawmakers to take the budget deadline seriously. The court said the state has no legal authority to make many payments if no spending plan is in place. ***The court also ruled that state workers can be paid no more than federal minimum wage until a budget is passed.***
"If there is no budget after Tuesday, (state Controller) Westly said: California will not make monthly payments beginning in July that total more than $200 million for K-12 schools and $200 million for community colleges. State employees face drastic pay cuts as soon as late August. Vendors will not receive payments for services rendered to the state after July 1. Westly will continue a tradition of withholding pay from elected officials… Westly said he is limited by a recent California Supreme Court ruling that dictates most state workers be paid the federal minimum wage - $5.15 per hour – when the state is running without a budget."
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Gdome: Tax revenues skyrocketed with the "90's tech boom; the state corresponding responded by opening the purse strings allowing spending to increase by nearly 60%. Now the revenue fountain is gone, but the jungle of public spending growth that it nurtured remains and continues to struggle for financial support...Sounds to me like another job for The Greenspan gang. They can ride into Sacramento with Money Guns a-blazin to bring order to the West. After all, if they can ride to the rescue of any foreign country that has debt trouble, why shouldn't they rise to the rescue of the world's seventh largest economy (California)? Can you imagine all public employee wages in California being reduced to $5.15 per hour--the financial fallout of it all? I think that possiblility alone will hasten some political/economic bailout settlement.
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