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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 5/29/2003
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Black Blade (05/29/03; 23:49:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 103760)
Re: 21mabry

It depends on what you mean by "natural gas reserves larger than known petrol reserves." They are two distinct markets and the physical characteristics make them useful for many different purposes and the cost per Btu is another factor to consider. There are substantial reserves of NatGas in North America but most is either inaccessible or have no supporting infrastructure to exploit the "reserves" – actually "resources" may be a more correct term though as "reserves" refer to economically exploitable

NatGas. NatGas can be easily moved great distances through pipelines but obviously is more costly the greater the distance. For example Russia moves substantial NatGas to Western Europe and has for several years.

Liquified NatGas is costly but at current prices it is profitable. However, there are only four LNG terminals in the US (only two are fully operational). Then the tanker fleet is very small and requires nickel cased refrigerated tanks. The fleet is pretty much contracted out right now. One problem is that the tankers are quite expensive to build and maintain and building new terminals is a problem partly due to NIMBY and also that when these facilities explode it is like a small nuke device going off minus the radiation. Recently a LNG tanker was on fire near Hong Kong and the tanker was order a few miles away while crews fought the fire. Fortunately the fire was controlled. Regardless, it will be several years before many new facilities are built and brought online.

- Black Blade


slingshot (05/29/03; 23:42:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 103759)
Essay Contest
I enjoy reading all the entries for the essay contest and I'm sure more are to come and looking forward to reading them.

@ Gondolin. Enjoyed your entry. First to to give council to an otherwise impetuous Knight.
@ Clink. Have to be Bold when Going for the Gold.
@ Golidlox. Jim Morrison- Strange Days. What an album.
@Felix the Cat. Hope to talk to you soon.
@ Goldquest. Will a Snapper riding Lawn Mower do?

This forum is the greatest.

Slingshot-------------;0)

Black Blade (05/29/03; 23:27:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 103758)
High natural gas prices lighting fire under coal
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/030529/energy_coal_1.html

Snippit:

Prices for coal, which already fuels about 50 percent of U.S. power generation, are expected to rise 30 to 40 percent over the next 12 months, analysts said. Low coal inventory stockpiles, as well as high natural gas prices, have increased coal demand from power companies. "Investors and power companies are looking at coal more favorably because of spiking natural gas prices," said Friedman, Billings, Ramsey analyst David Khani. Natural gas prices have been pressured mainly by low production levels. Industry analysts say there are strong similarities between current conditions and factors affecting the market three years ago when coal and gas prices spiked. "With natural gas in short supply and extended outages planned at some of the nation's nuclear power plants, it is becoming increasingly evident that coal must play a vital role in satisfying the nation's future energy requirements," said Arch Coal Chief Executive Steven Leer about the acquisition.

Black Blade: The effects of the emerging NatGas energy crisis is rippling through the domestic energy sector. The higher coal and NatGas prices are just the beginning.



Mr Gresham (05/29/03; 22:58:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 103757)
Silver/Gold ratio all-time low(?)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$SILVER:$GOLD,uu[l,a]daoaynay[dc][pb50!b200][iLa12,26,9]&pref=G
How do you say "Clink, clink" in Ag?

21mabry (05/29/03; 22:21:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 103756)
NATURAL GAS
BB, are known natural gas reserves larger than known petrol reserves? Am I correct in stating natural gas is difficult to move great distances by pipeline because its instability and explosive potential in pipeline and at transport stations,.Is liquified natural gas a viable way to transport the product? Nice move in the paper gold areas today silver is getting beat up of late. 21

Cytek (05/29/03; 21:06:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 103755)
Everyone is talking "Head and Shoulders"
Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters snippet
May 30, 2003

Extracted from the 29 May 2003 issue of Richard's Remarks . . .

Gold --Here's another question. The Dollar Index is down .50 as I write. But gold is down 2.20 as I write. Isn't gold supposed to trade inversely to the dollar? How can gold and the dollar both be down?

My only answer to this is that gold is in the process of forming a right shoulder to the head-and-shoulders bottom that I described a few days ago. Gold is "doing its own thing," but ultimately if the dollar declines it's going to take more dollars to buy an ounce of gold.

Of course, the other argument is that certain "interests" are manipulating gold, "pressuring the metal down and working against market forces." Could this be the case?

Anything is possible, but I'll depend on the free market to be more powerful (in the end) than any manipulative forces.



Goldbug 1 (05/29/03; 20:54:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 103754)
Fur Face wants to know.
Who let the dogs out?

Sundeck (05/29/03; 20:32:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 103753)
(Russian) Reserves Grow $3.2Bln in One Week
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2003/05/30/041.html
Snips:

"...
The nation's hard currency and gold reserves grew a whopping $3.2 billion last week to $63.1 billion on surging demand for the ruble, a senior Central Bank official said Thursday. Both figures are all-time highs.

"We were buying currency on the open market," Oleg Vyugin, the Central Bank's first deputy chairman, told Interfax.

"Where this currency came from is a separate issue. Possibly it came from export revenues or borrowed funds or the closure of a deal ... not conducted by the Central Bank," he said.

Vyugin said growing demand for the national currency was fueled both by growing investment in the economy and efforts to minimize exposure to the weakening U.S. dollar.

"Right now the dollar is not a very attractive currency," Vyugin said, stressing, however, that that didn't necessarily mean the ruble had all of a sudden become an attractive currency.

...
The shrinking demand for dollars is in part caused by individuals who are switching to euros or opting to simply keep their savings in rubles, he said. "Russians are very sensitive to currency markets," he said.

There may also be another explanation for the growth in reserves: politics.

..."

Sundeck: Politics indeed. Nothing about Russia increasing its gold reserves, but the switch to Rubles and Euros is apparent. What is Asia going to do?




goldquest (5/29/03; 19:13:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 103752)
Now we're talking real money!
http://www.msnbc.com/news/919446.asp?cp1=1
No wonder O'Neill bailed out!

Gandalf the White (5/29/03; 19:01:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 103751)
A Belated WELCOME to you, Sir Eddiebhoy !!!
eddiebhoy (5/29/03; 15:36:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 103743)
===
Please do, draw up a chair and spend some time telling us at the TABLEROUND of your thoughts.
Thanks
GW


Dollar Bill (5/29/03; 18:03:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 103750)
Black Blade
Thanks agin for the posts.
This coming gas problem will maybe be the factor that changes the construction industry.
Right now in Connecticut, most of the new neighborhoods in the suburbs are homes with large excess living space.
I myself wondered why folks would want to have to walk so far from the kitchen to the master bedroom.
Since reading your posts I have made it a point to ask folks how they heat thier homes. Without exception, so far they said "gas".
Since so many electric plants are now gas fired, all of us will see the elec. bill rise. That will be another negative for new homes with large spaces to cool in the summer as well. The era of the so called Mc Mansions may be at it's zenith right now.
Wood stoves will get more customers. So, chimney sweeps will be a growth industry.

CoBra(too) (5/29/03; 17:17:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 103749)
@ Old Yeller -
Seems like the Dallas FED has spelled it out - the FED's quiver lacks straight arrows!

- Not to worry - they still have a whole arsenal of economic WMD's, which they're testing with every repo and the reports are reverberating around the globe ... imploding the relative value of the US Dollar with every round ...
A quiver full of dilutive delusions ...



Black Blade (5/29/03; 16:06:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 103748)
Re: eddiebhoy

Gee, I hope they don't rely on me for info. ;-)

The data speaks for itself and of course I constantly deal with people in the energy sector. We can often spot a growing trend as we sit on the inside and as such we also must pay attention to a large number of variables that influence demand and the market overall.

A couple of years ago as the California energy crisis blew over and the litigation followed after the fall of Enron, energy companies were hit with credit downgrades limiting access to financing of critical projects. This was followed by government imposed limits on access to the best drill targets for NatGas. This came even as mature fields were experiencing rapid decline rates and more drilling effort was needed in developed fields just to maintain current production. We were "fortunate" last time to suffer an economic recession that resulted in some demand destruction and mild winter temperatures. Last time the crisis was related to high demand whereas this time it is directly related to limited supply. The proposed regulatory changes are a matter of too little too late.

Many changes have occurred leading up to what amounts to a "perfect storm" in the NatGas market. I won't go into that right now as I have discussed that before at length. One important point is that when we had a an all time record number of drill rigs turning in the field two yers ago, we eeked out a miniscule gain of 2% production. We have not quite come close to matching those levels yet. Another important problem is the lack of pipeline capacity and the difficulty in permitting new pipelines in existing production areas and areas of interest.

In short the supply and demand picture has hit a wall and as energy is nearly as important as food and water in today's world, we are not likely to see much more "conservation" or less demand emerge. People will pay whatever it takes to be comfortable.

Cheers!

- Black Blade

Old Yeller (5/29/03; 15:58:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 103747)
Fed ready to try some unconventional tools
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/030529/economy_fed_deflation_2.html

Getting interesting.

It's nice to see that unfunded budget liability report get
the attention it deserves.

Somebody wanted the issue discussed further,I see.

Black Blade (5/29/03; 15:44:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 103746)
Ma--ana economics
http://money.cnn.com/2003/05/28/news/economy/expectations/index.htm

Economists keep saying the sun will come out tomorrow ... and tomorrow ... and tomorrow.

Snippit:

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Most experts think the economy's rebound to full strength is just a month or two away. After all, there's a powerful cocktail of stimulus in the shaker -- everything from a falling dollar to tax cuts to low interest rates -- to give the world's largest economy a boost. But some bearish economists are warning that we've heard these forecasts more than once before, that the forecasts have been wrong every time, and that there's little to indicate they're right this time.

On Thursday the government is due to issue its revision of first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of the nation's economy, with analysts betting the number will be raised to a 1.9 percent growth rate, on average, from the Commerce Department's initial reading of 1.6 percent, according to a Reuters poll. But even 1.9 percent GDP growth is lousy. Look at the five years ending in 1994, during which the economy sank into recession and then struggled to recover, but still managed to claw ahead at a 2.2 percent annual rate, on average. Most economists think 3.5 percent growth is necessary to bring unemployment down. The U.S. economy hasn't managed to put together two straight quarters like that since the third and fourth quarters of 1999, when unemployment was at 4 percent. Since then, unemployment has jumped to 6 percent.


Black Blade: Ah yes, the fabled "second half recovery" as if it were a football game (the "second half recovery" claims are going into its fourth year – is the fourth time the charm?). Sorry but it ain't gonna happen. Capital spending has fallen off a cliff and there are signs that the tapped out consumer is reaching his breaking point. Deficit spending has a way of doing that. ;-)



CoBra(too) (5/29/03; 15:41:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 103745)
The (In-)Significance of # 64 ...
As the Americans have always been extremely innovative in 'coining' new phrases, which subsequently became idiomatic, let old Europe try to 'para'- or better re-phrase the 64.000 Dollar question - to the 44 Trillion question.

Or would that be unfounded, better again, unfunded? Indeed!

Or should one wait until it is 64 again, Trillion, or whatever the next quantum leap is supposed to be called ...

... And why do those 'mercans use funny weights like ounces et al for real values, like in GOLD and still think in metric measures for their paper obligations?
Search me, who? - cb2

- That prolly is the 64K Question - Or is it?




Boilermaker (5/29/03; 15:37:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 103744)
Essay Entry
Whistle Blower Blues

We celebrate Labor Day as the hot dry summer drags on. But this is not a time for celebration with the markets in disarray. The Administration and all of Washington is in full panic deployment. No one could have predicted the financial devastation and fallout that began when the former head of security at the Fort Knox Gold Repository revealed that "large quantities of gold bars" had been shipped out of the facility over the past several years to unknown destinations. This former employee who was under oath to maintain secrecy about all aspects of the depository had become intrigued with several of the internet gold sites where the buzz in recent years has been about the alleged manipulation and suppression of the price of gold to create the illusion of a "strong dollar". It was June 16th when Robert Smith, a 30-year government employee of several different agencies wrote to his Congressman, Ron Paul of Texas, and revealed the ongoing reduction of the gold in our largest National Gold Repository. Miller suggested that it was part of the effort to subdue gold and brace the dollar. Interviewed on several financial news outlets, Miller made a convincing case for the allegations and got the attention of investors around the world.

Congressman Paul, himself a gold advocate, demanded an audit by Treasury that would be overseen by a congressional delegation. At first the Administration dug in their heels, denied the charges and refused the audit. But like Watergate, the denials only brought more criticism and pressure to reveal the truth. The media, at first not much interested in the story, became fully involved as the financial markets began to react violently to the allegations. The Administration, seeing the futility of further denials, finally confirmed on July 25th that shipments of gold from Fort Knox had occurred as part of a long-term program to reduce the US gold reserve. This reduction was "in keeping with the objective of stabilizing and strengthening the US$ and in recognition of the diminishing role of gold as a reserve asset".

The financial community was caught off guard by this sudden revelation and there was instant chaos in the gold markets that quickly spread to currencies, commodities, stocks, derivatives and even interest rates. As we celebrate Labor Day the financial landscape is littered with the confetti of worthless paper and firms that had so recently been given great value. Now the term "precious metal" has been given a renewed meaning to a humbled nation.

Gold has suddenly become the standard by which other assets are valued. With the closing of the COMEX and other official gold exchanges there is no market that establishes an official price. The value of physical gold can be measured only by comparison with what people are willing to offer for it from day to day. For instance, auto dealers are accepting gold at a ratio of $2250 per ounce and real estate brokers are advertising even higher exchange rates.

The government is in a frantic effort to reconfigure the dollar and is threatening to make gold illegal as they did in 1933. This has only served to strengthen gold and make the Euro the currency of choice with US producers and consumers. The most recent rumor is that the US is negotiating to become a member of the Euro system because OPEC will no longer accept the dollar.

This Labor Day is the painful turning point for Americans used to the special status of the dollar. Call it "The Night They Tore Old Dollar Down".


eddiebhoy (5/29/03; 15:36:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 103743)
@black blade natural gas crisis
bb for months you have been banging on about the impending crisis looming in the us natural gas storage and supplies.
it has been an interesting and enlightening story of the
fundementals in this market that you have backed up with
countless figures and industry overviews that have only served to show your diligence and foresight on the problems
that are starting to show in this market for the oncoming winter

have you ever considered that it may be YOUR perseverence
on this acute problem that has now got the us administration
finally moving on this ongoing energy shortage that is about to hit the us economy in a big way

i think that maybe a lot of serious players in the worlds economy log onto this site for information and advice...

in general im just a lurker but as far as im concerned this forum is simply the best finacial (or otherwise) site on the web today

the depth and scope of its writings on the worlds political and financial trends are quite simply outstanding

all of the western worlds main media sites can only dream
about the topics discussed on this forum and their depth
and understanding it gives to the readers who are lucky enough to have found it

my understanding of the real world and how it works have
basically been turned upside down since i mistakenly stumbled across this site 18 months ago and i thank my
lucky stars that i was fortunate enough to do so as my finacial status has now been reorderd and i have taken
aristotle's advice to the full...

bb, aristotle, belgian, and mk thanks for the info and keep it coming

back to lurking...................



Black Blade (5/29/03; 15:27:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 103742)
Budgetary crises push many states to borrow
http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/149/business/Budgetary_crises_push_many_states_to_borrow+.shtml

Snippit:

While tax hikes are still relatively rare, borrowing to close budget deficits is gaining popularity. From New York to Illinois to California, states confronted with serious fiscal trouble are borrowing billions of dollars to get through the current crisis. ''Borrowing is appealing because it is a way of avoiding unpopular taxes or spending cuts,'' said Robin Prunty, director of public finance for Standard & Poor's.

Like the other credit-rating agencies, S&P takes a dim view of most of this borrowing, viewing it as a way of pushing today's problems off until tomorrow. The rating agencies have lowered the debt ratings of some of the states that have resorted to borrowing; they have warned others that they face downgrading in the future. But even the prospect of paying higher interest rates hasn't slowed the trend.


Black Blade: Digging themselves into a deeper hole.



Black Blade (5/29/03; 14:57:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 103741)
US 'faces future of chronic deficits'
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1051390392975&p=1012571727088

Snippit:

The Bush administration has shelved a report commissioned by the Treasury that shows the US currently faces a future of chronic federal budget deficits totalling at least $44,200bn in current US dollars.

The study, the most comprehensive assessment of how the US government is at risk of being overwhelmed by the "baby boom" generation's future healthcare and retirement costs, was commissioned by then-Treasury secretary Paul O'Neill.

But the Bush administration chose to keep the findings out of the annual budget report for fiscal year 2004, published in February, as the White House campaigned for a tax-cut package that critics claim will expand future deficits.

The study asserts that sharp tax increases, massive spending cuts or a painful mix of both are unavoidable if the US is to meet benefit promises to future generations. It estimates that closing the gap would require the equivalent of an immediate and permanent 66 per cent across-the-board income tax increase.


Black Blade: Not exactly news to anyone who has been paying attention. Still it should drive home the point that the US dollar remains grossly overvalued due to this unsustainable debt load (that will never ever be repaid I might add). The debt will rise continuously beyond levels where it becomes impossible to service. Very "Interesting Times" lie ahead.



21mabry (5/29/03; 14:56:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 103740)
401k
I got a propaganda mailing from my 401k company today.It states that over the last 3 years the median average loss of their 401k costomers has been 2 percent,this is just a case of statistics saying what you want them to say.In the mailing they go on to say the market is turning around and its time to give stocks your attention.This is a well known fund company I could not believe this letter.

Trurl (5/29/03; 14:48:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 103739)
$$$$ ESSAY CONTEST ENTRY $$$$
The price of Gold on labor day?

I believe that several great thinkers here have tried to educate us back row lurkers on the appropriate way to view gold.

The price of gold on labor day will be 1.0000 OZ T

To put it another way, it will be 31.1033 Grams.

...Or do you still account for gold in Jello, err, dollars?

Black Blade (5/29/03; 14:12:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 103738)
Weekly Natural Gas Storage
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngs/ngs.html

Today's NatGas storage data looks good but as we had mild temperatures lately this is not unexpected. Next week we could see high injection as well but warmer temps are likely to affect injection soon enough.

I talked with a couple of people today and as someone asked about Canadian pipeline supply I asked about that as well. It appears that Canadian supply to the US has suddenly fallen off sharply this last week and competition for available Canadian supply is heating up in spite of recent higher injection. This obviously leads me to believe that there will be some serious constraints on imported NatGas soon and that will impact US injection.

Word is that the NatGas situation is more critical than previously disclosed to the public as well. Now the President is weighing in on the issue and is supposedly working to get June's NatGas policy meeting in order. Apparently the energy concerns over NatGas are reaching into the highest office in the land. We should keep our eyes on this development. As energy costs directly impact the bottom line of both corporations and consumers, the developing domestic energy crisis could rip through the US economy like a rabid bear devastating several domestic industries from Agriculture to manufacturing.

Several US senators (including about 30 Democrats) have circulated a petition for Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham to expand the search for remedies to the energy crisis and this may come up during the June meeting. Surprisingly this issue has recieved little notice from the media but that could change over the next few weeks. We are looking at an energy crisis of epic proportions and it is likely to get very ugly later this year.

- Black Blade

silvercollector (5/29/03; 14:09:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 103737)
Labour Day Contest
"What do you think will be the price of gold by summer's traditional end -- Labor Day, midnight September 1st 2003 -- and why?"


An awesome question, perhaps with the element of hope will I pledge a bid for the price of gold on Labor Day. In my quest to provide a response for Belgium in his post of this morning, I will attempt to kill 2 birds with one stone.

Belgium writes this morning that "The dollar and the euro-systems, are already reacting "differently", and will continue to do so, on the coming global crisis." and Will the (dollar)-IMF start panicking soon !? Is this the beginning of a monetary "break-up" ?"

Finally, "This widening rift between the dollar Anglo-American block and the growing Euro-block, will result in a policy that will bring Gold back into the epicenter."


These fine words have been echoed by several who have passed through these halls. The US dollar who has reached it's final days of glory will be 'replaced' by the young stallion whose support and backing is off the highest esteem.

That would be gold. In this sense Belgium, Ari, FOA and Another are correct.

I would like to add a thought. It is not Euroland or the Euro that will save the day, it is not the new currency that "will bring Gold back into the epicenter". The sucess of the Euro is not because of the invention of this new fiat, it is gold that permits the Euro's possible success.
The Euro will not bring Gold into the epicentre, it is gold that allows the Euro to be considered as the new heir to the throne. The dollar, with it's infinite & incalculable encumberances shall fade in history while the Euro has an opportunity to fulfil the new role. It is the sound backing of final resort that allows this chance.

Let us be clear, gold will make the Euro a hero it it allows it.

There are many a call for $400 gold by Labor's Day and $500 by end of 2003. We are witnessing the dollar's struggle in the last few weeks. The dollar is desperate to secure oil and to revive an ailing economy in order to provide sound backing.

We watch to see if the Euro falls into this trap. Will the Euro drop rates, will the Euro 'chase' IR/SM/economy as the dollar has or will we see the Euro stand brave, tall, golden?

As the man on the tube said this morning, the stock and bond markets both cannot be correct, neither can the Euro and the dollar.

We watch together, yes?
.
.
.
.
.
.

Oh yes, the POG for Labor Day...

..... $8,752



Lothar of the Hill People (5/29/03; 13:45:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 103736)
Contest regrets
Lothar sought to enter the POG contest, but reaching into tunic for the trusted palm pilot (the repository of multitudes of precious passwords) I found naught. Alas, the great loss was suffered in the midst of the May guano harvest.

Sounding the alarm, Lothar called together the Hill People and a frantic search ensued through the legion of carts prepared to carry the dank and odoriferous harvest to market. Finally--success! At the bottom of the last cart the palm pilot was found and was none the worst, except for smell. But, alas, the deadline was past.

Though downcast, Lothar finds solace in the second contest conducted by our most bountiful host.

On to the essay contest!

Lothar wishes all the contestants well.

I am Lothar, of the Hill People.



The Hoople (5/29/03; 13:27:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 103735)
$$$$ ESSAY CONTEST ENTRY $$$$
The POG on labor Day is an appropriate thought. It is labor that toils to mine, extract, refine, and ship gold. It is labor that builds wealth and fortunes. It is then bankers that cheat laborers out of their wealth by all the tried and true sleight of hand methods. How? By isuing worthless fiat that can never be a store of value but rather a depreciating asset. By confiscating gold 70 years ago and using it as a weapon against laborers. By publicly deriding gold as a "barberous relic" while secretly knowing it is their only salvation. By devising paper instruments to manipulate and control the POG. There are many other schemes to mention that would be too lengthy for a simple essay, suffice it to say all schemes eventually fail. One thought rarely mentioned about the big "scheme" is how the reported CPI/PPI numbers not only understate the real rate of inflation(a scheme itself), they are going the wrong way to actually reflect it. Hedonic deflators, quality improvements and superior technology are trumpeted as deflation adjustments but nowhere does cheapened product, smaller portions, and inferior service get any consideration. Whether it is a home, car, or pair of jeans products are cheaper and poorer service is the norm. This is another hidden wealth destroyer. The old axiom about an ounce of gold being able to buy a fine men's tailored suit is still true. I recently bought a fine tailored suit at Nordstrom's for about $1,200.00. It still isn't as fine tailored as suits were years ago. The service while good by today's standard is still inferior to back then. I can only speculate that to replicate a fine tailored suit by those yesteryear standards would require up to $2,000.00. To me that represents the true value of gold. So what I submit as the POG on Labor Day are 2 prices: The real one ($2,000.00) and the banker scheme POG to defraud laborers everywhere- $392.00. By the time Labor Day rolls around we will have printed another 150 billion of FRN's. Our Gross Public Debt should have increased by a similar amount. Frightening possibilities for all holders of paper wealth.








Magister Aurelius (5/29/03; 13:04:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 103734)
Gordie Brown and the Monetarians
Hey WAC thanks for the interesting little tidbit on Mr Brown and his views on stronger ties with America. Looks to me like an Alliance of the English-speaking peoples is getting closer and closer. Who knows? Instead of a euro maybe we will have the Sterling Dollar? I still think that the central banks of the US and GB have been quietly accumulating gold on the sly, and if things really get bad, Sinclair's idea about a new gold cover could come to fruition.

Great Albino Bat (5/29/03; 12:34:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 103733)
The GAB's favorite films...
1. "Mars Attacks" - devastating satire

2. "Wag the Dog" - Hollywood tells the truth, for a change

3. "Rocky and Bullwinkle" - featuring Robert De Niro as our "Beloved and Fearless Leader", Boris Badanov and his paramour, Natasha; Whoppie Goldberg as a Judge who pronounces the great truth: "Celebrities Are Above the Law - Case Dismissed!" and America's greatest living comic, the one and only - Jonathan Winters!

Rocky and Bullwinkle frustrate the Beloved and Fearless Leader's plot to "zombify" the whole of America by means of RBTV - Real Bad T.V.

The GAB always enjoyed Bullwinkle's subtle humor and glad to see him back, now in the service of his country.

Again, Hollywood is once again trying to tell us the truth.

Latest guano from the GAB, relieved (excuse the pun) to see gold back on track after Boris and Natasha and their despicable plot to torpedo it, fails once again.

The GAB.

a nation of one (5/29/03; 12:17:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 103732)
my homework

The 200-day-moving-average incipit (I am using the word 'incipit' to refer to the first trading day in the
current 200 day moving average) will move down 26 points over the next 65 trading days. This is past
history. That's all it can do. There is no uncertainty about this. If it is assumed that the 200 day moving
average will continue to go up at its present rate, in order for this to happen the POG will have to increase by
26 points over that same amount of time, though, certainly, fluctuation may also occur. Since experienced
traders probably understand that this is likely to happen, and because traders tend to be eager to act sooner
than others, it seems probable that the target price of 396 will be reached sooner than 65 trading days, and it
is also likely that that price will be exceeded. Therefore, it appears reasonable to tentatively conclude that a
price for gold sooner than 65 trading days, of greater than 396 is likely to occur, given no change in news or
other factors. So a tentative prediction can be made using this data, that POG will be around 400 (more or
less) before the end of June (more or less). Also relevant however, are other factors: 1) The dollar will
probably continue to fall -If it does, that will increase anticipation by speculators that pog will go higher; 2)
Positive movements by POG have been progressing boldly after mild drops, and this indicates avid optimism
on the part of traders, and -together with an already demonstrated exhaustion of forces wanting to sell- this
suggests that, 3) expectations for the price of gold continue to run very high. Since human expectations are
one of the things that make markets, it is only sensible to imagine that the energy to take pog higher is
present and ready to carry the ball at the first unambiguous opportunity. Considering all factors, not just
these that I have mentioned here, the preponderance of them is much -much- more consistent with a very
strong move up in the near future, than otherwise.


Cavan Man (5/29/03; 12:01:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 103731)
FT Front Page Today
Read all about the US fiscal nightmare coming with a HUGE tax increase to us soon. Must read. Also mentioned in DR today.

slingshot (5/29/03; 11:59:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 103730)
(No Subject)
How about that come back!

"You keep a knocking, but you can't come it in"

Where's Little Richard when you need him.

Slingshot-------------------<>

JemeJordan (5/29/03; 11:52:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 103729)
U.S. Commander Says War Not Over in Iraq
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A53491-2003May29.html?nav=hptop_ts&nav=hhttp://www.whttp://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/IncrementalGatherServlet?node=admin/registration/update
U.S. Commander Says War Not Over in Iraq

silvercollector (5/29/03; 11:44:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 103728)
BIG reversal in the last couple hours
...and I was getting worried. ;)

Zhisheng (5/29/03; 11:38:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 103727)
Correction.
Oops. Meant to say "The dollar drops and gold rises,.."

Jing Zu (5/29/03; 11:37:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 103726)
There it goes!
Wow, Look at the way this day is turning out~ It seems as though something big is happening.....

Zhisheng (5/29/03; 11:30:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 103725)
Up into the Close!
http://focus.comdirect.co.uk/en/detail/_pages/charts/main.html?sSymbol=GLD.FX1
The drops and gold rises, as on a teeter-totter. The June Euro is up 1.33 cents on the day, the June dollar index is at 92.6, down .98, and just look at the action of Gandalf's dog Spike! June gold is $370 as I post.

Mr Gresham (5/29/03; 11:22:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 103724)
And to liven things up...
big SPIKE just now.

Sundeck, you're getting some great ones in lately. Thanks!

That green paper stuff is looking rattier and rattier by the day -- is the herd starting to turn?

mikal (5/29/03; 10:46:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 103723)
@Gandalf the White
Re: The dollar index
The markets in the dollar, gold etc appear to be consolidating just a bit. The dollar index put in a low last week at about .925 and hasn't rallied over .94 since, yet action is temporarily "suspended" this week.
Gold is in it's primary uptrend but has been confined this week, due to various global holidays, options expirations Tuesday(June COMEX) and Wednesday(OTC), and confusing signals from other markets, IMHO:
Durable goods, retail sales and other poor economic data just get worse.
The CRB index has been hammered the past couple weeks.
Crude oil today, so far is over $29.15.
The 10 yr. U.S. note is up nearly EVERY day.
All this is a good lead-in for a sedate, reaasuring G8 meeting this weekend in Davos, Switzerland. Also, end-of-month window dressing by equity fund and portfolio managers this week helps gravitate money flows in the same direction.

Gandalf the White (5/29/03; 10:15:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 103722)
BTW -- Do look now, as the US$ Index just went SUB 0.93 again !
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0
<;-)

Gandalf the White (5/29/03; 10:01:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 103721)
$$$$ ESSAY CONTEST ENTRY $$$$ ------ Reminder <;-)
http://www.usagold.com/contest.html
THE LABOR DAY DISCUSSION CONTEST -- A discussion statement is a separate contest which you may enter separately from your price guess -- the prize to be awarded to the most clever or thoughtful answer to this question posed by MK:

"What do you think will be the price of gold by summer's traditional end -- Labor Day, midnight September 1st 2003 -- and why?"

NOTE: The winners for this contest will be selected shortly after the entry deadline based (obviously) not on the accuracy of their guesses (after all, how could we judge this element in advance??) but rather on the thoughts contained in the stated rationale behind their guestimated Labor Day price.

1) ENTRY DEADLINE: All Labor Day discussion entries must be posted before the clock in Denver strikes HIGH NOON (12:00) on Friday, May 30th, 2003 (forum time).

2) ENTRY FORMAT: Labor Day Price essays shall be provided in a clearly labeled post that states "ESSAY CONTEST ENTRY" in the subject box enclosed in dollar symbols.
(such as $$$$ ESSAY CONTEST ENTRY $$$$)
===
Now that the "easy" contest entry deadline is past, it is time to think about your entries to the Essay Contest !
BTW, Thanks Sir Sundeck, for perhaps "raising the bar" just a little.
<;-)


a nation of one (5/29/03; 09:42:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 103720)
(1/19/03; 10:53:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 94936)

If you would like to read what is apparently turning out to be a really accurate prediction, please read the post referred to in the subject line. I received a considerable amount of criticism for this post, as I do for a lot of my statements, but, so far, it is right on schedule. There is a lot in the prediction that has already happened, so already the prediction has turned out to be substantially correct.



Gandalf the White (5/29/03; 09:41:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 103719)
Sir Boilermaker
Boilermaker (5/29/03; 06:35:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 103716)
Contest
Oh Great and Wonderful Wizard, Sir Gandalf
====
Thanks Sir Boilermaker ! (and flattery gets my attention EVERY time) <;-)
I KNOW that I did once upon a time see and enter that number, but as my son says, "Dad, you are dangerous on that computer !" Things just HAPPEN ! I have now CORRECTED the 'OFFICIAL Listing of Prognostications' and am now going back to see how many others were lost along the way.
<;-)

Clink! (5/29/03; 09:12:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 103718)
@Sundeck
Sheesh ! You could at least have had a little pity on those of us who haven't entered the essay competition yet, and left something unsaid ! Nice summary. I particularly like the analogy of a scree slope - it might explain why the slopes we are seeing (as Sector pointed out in December/January and look to be repeated in April/May) have a linearity approaching an R-squared factor of 0.95 (where 1.0 is a dead straight line).

@Belgian. One significant factor of difference between the US and Europe, which I believe was mentioned by Wim D. earlier this year, is that lowering the interest rates would be crippling to those people - particularily retired - who are trying to live off their savings. It's great for business, but not for people, and I think that shows another fundamental difference in the style of socialism. Here (the US) the good of the people is sacrificed for business - in Europe it's the opposite. Indeed, I am still amazed (I have said this here before) that more noise has not come from the AARP - they are the biggest organization in the US by a factor of ten. Talk about a significant, and usually influential, minority !


WAC (Wide Awake Club) (5/29/03; 07:50:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 103717)
Brown calls for stronger ties with US
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/business/articles/timid63569?source=
Patrick Hennessy, Evening Standard
29 May 2003

GORDON Brown called for stronger trade links with America today as he revealed to the rest of the Cabinet his sceptical verdict on membership of the euro.


The Treasury began sending out the Chancellor's 200-page assessment of the currency to individual ministers by special courier.


It contained the worst-kept secret in Whitehall - the Treasury's finding that Britain's economy is not enough in step with the eurozone for membership to be recommended.

According to leaks, four out of the five key economic tests set by Chancellor, which must be passed before a referendum is called, have been failed.


Although the Chancellor has ruled out membership for the time being, he now faces pressure from colleagues to agree to a 'road map' of measures to ensure the tests are passed as soon as possible.


Boilermaker (5/29/03; 06:35:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 103716)
Contest
Oh Great and Wonderful Wizard, Sir Gandalf,

This humble serf wished to enter the price guessing contest with his post #103673 but it appears that he has violated one of the arcane rules for his entry was not recorded. Perhaps the Hobbits will take pity on my plight and persuade you to reconsider my entry.

Boilermaker

Sundeck (5/29/03; 05:57:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 103715)
$$$$$$$ Essay Contest Entry $$$$$$$
What price Gold on September 1, 2003 and why? That is the question?

Technical Approach
------------------

From a simple technical standpoint, one can apply (at least) two approaches:

1. Extrapolate the primary up-trend in POG that has endured for the last two years. This yields a value of $374 plus or minus about $30 on 1 Sep 03.

2. Extrapolate the primary down-trend in the USDX and convert to POG using the line-of-best-fit derived from the strong inverse correlation over the last few years between POG and the USDX. Using an extrapolated value of USDX = 90 on 1 Sep 03 and evaluating the equation,

POG = - 4.35 USDX + 782

yields POG = $390.50. The uncertainty in this result is about plus or minus $40.

Halving the difference in these two results yields a POG around $382 plus or minus about $35.

How much faith can one put in this result? That boils down to how much faith one can put into the durability of the primary trends in the POG and the USDX.

Let's look first at the "scree slope" of the USDX. " ‘Scree slope’ you say? Isn't a scree slope the gradient of the accumulated loose rocks at the base of an eroding mesa?" Yes it is, and it has a characteristic slope that is a function of the force of gravity and the physical properties of the loose rocks and other materials involved; as well as other factors, like whether its base is being eaten away on one side by a river, or is periodically shaken by earth-quakes. Pretty complex, heh? Sure, but a well-defined and enduring slope results nonetheless! The principal "emergent property" from piling up rocks and sand. Fascinating! So it is with the US dollar. It is too high and it is eroding… and the forces and properties at play are like those in a scree slope. They are impossible to measure or predict individually, but a stunning property emerges - a characteristic down-trend in the USDX, that persists for as long as the basic ingredients stay the same. I am assuming that the basic ingredients stay the same until September 1. I am reassured because major "scree slopes" in the USDX over the past 30 years have persisted for several years and this one has only been going for a year-and-a-half and looks like being a beauty!

How about the up-trend in the POG? Pretty much the same deal. Unless there is a major seismic shift between now and September we can expect the trend to continue. But you never know and it is impossible to predict.


Fundamental Approach
--------------------

Much more complex – akin to measuring the shapes, as well as the physical properties, of all the rocks, stones and grains of sand in the scree slope and also knowing when the river at the base is going to flood, and how high and how fast the water will go; as well as the timing and magnitude of the earth-quakes, and the interplay between the S and P components, and a whole lot more ... you can see why many people prefer technical analysis! But let's have a go anyway.

What does one regard as "fundamental" in pricing gold? Well, since it is priced in $US, I suppose the "value" of the $US is fundamental. Now the value of the $US is declining in giant steps. The rate of descent might be slowed, but not substantially reversed – unless the EU enters the market as a major buyer. Likely? I think not. The decline in the dollar is probably pretty well locked in. It might be moderated a little by the EU and other countries lowering interest rates before September, but that is likely to be offset by another cut in US rates. Hence the slide is on for quite a while. The US rate cut will probably be 50 basis points and that will encourage another round of house refinancings and ensure that the big bond bull is kept alive for at least the next three months. Some money may even flow back into shares, but the historical sequence of equity market corrections augurs strongly for a major sell-off before September. Also, while a rate cut will encourage US nationals to stay in the housing and bond markets, it will have the opposite effect on international traders who are already seeing their profits from bonds turn strongly negative from low interest rates and foreign exchange losses. Their interest in the housing sector may remain, but they would be concerned about its teetering top-heaviness and liquidity concerns should it fail. So ... the prognosis for the dollar is down at the same rate to a level of about 90 for the USDX. That's about a 5% drop from here and equates to a 5% increase in price for gold, or about $18. this would put gold at about $382 come Labor Day. (Well, look at that – the same answer as the TA provided!)

But wait! We haven't mentioned other "fundamentals", like supply and demand.

Take supply first, and that is relatively easy (I think). New mine production will go on much the same and there probably will not be any dramatic change in the current trends by miners to reduce forward sales and close out some of their hedged positions. The Washington Agreement is still in effect. Activity outside that accord will probably continue to see net acquisition, rather than net disbursement of gold reserves. No surprises there. The US position on gold is as unclear as ever, but the bias will continue to be away from leasing and more towards covering exposed positions. Recycling of scrap will probably go on as normal.

Demand? Well, that is where the uncertainty lies. Few would deny that gold as an investment and preserve of wealth has received increasing publicity in the last twelve months. Accessability to gold investments of one form or another is increasing. Gold is probably entering portfolios with renewed confidence and the talk amongst "people in the know" is of a sustained, long-term bull market in gold. Bull markets being what they are, one would expect some "irrational exuberance" along the way, but how much of this will occur before 1 September? I think it is still too early for the glitter to appeal to Jack and Jill Ordinary – and they still have a bad taste in their mouths from the slumping equity markets. Also, "fear" has not set in yet in the equity markets and the "Greenspan put" will probably stave off that phenomenon for a while yet. Demand will continue to ramp up in China. In India, although the wedding season will be ending by September, many dealers may be wary of a runaway in the price of gold before next year. I therefore suspect that seasonal demand may not slacken as much as normal.

What about "demand shocks"? China revalueing or floating its currency? Mmmm ... don't know. Terrorist attack in the US? Maybe, but God forbid. The effect from 9/11 was a step in the gold price of about 8% for about a month. A similar event might see gold above $400 on September 1, but that is unlikely. Major bank failures in Japan? – could see a surge in Japanese buying, but probably not more than a few percent on the price. What else? Major US bullion bank caught short? Not much talk of that lately, but the risk is probably still there. Were they protected by the increase in COMEX margins back in February? Perhaps they were. Might COMEX increase margins still further? Well…it's a crooked game with some large asses swinging on the chairs. And then there is the Barrick / Blanchard law suite. If dismissed – gold may fall a few percent; if upheld – gold may go up a few percent. Derivatives failure – Buffett's weapons of financial mass destruction – they too are out there for gold and for just about everything else that can be gambled upon; and that could be a Puplava 10sigma event, but probably not before September. War with Iran? Very real possibility if Mr Bush and his colleagues cannot get the economy moving in time. The "Iran re-election contingency plan" is definitely on the cynics table – and they have oil too, and they need liberating just like Iraq, and they may be harbouring terrorists, and developing WMD... Yes, some premium might appear in the gold price from that contingency before September, but probably not much.

Whew! Where does that leave us on the fundamentals? I'd still say $382 plus or minus $35, but with a strong upside bias. Better than Fed-speak, but still not very clear. Oh well…we will just have to wait and see…

FWIW and DYODD

:-)

Sundeck


The Invisible Hand (5/29/03; 04:08:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 103714)
The original ones – attn.: The Hobbits
The Invisible Hand (02/13/02; 20:31:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 69957)
***** 8,752 *****
Contest - What contest?
Here's my entry

The Invisible Hand (2/18/02; 01:46:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 70296)
Confirmation and discussion ****$ 8,752****

I do hereby confirm my guess of ****$ 8,752 ****

Discussion: Although in an earlier post of the last fortnight I said that A/TG predicted an upward surge of 50 bucks a day, I think it would be more precise to say that the gentlemen argue the unexpected move towards $ 30,000 can occur at anytime. It must thus start once. Why not within the 'time limit' of the contest?


05.29.2003: I still like my discussion of February 2002.

Topaz (5/29/03; 02:43:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 103713)
Bonds, Gold and the Dollar.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=tnxy%2Cfvxy%2Ctyxy%2Cgcm03&period=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=12&go.y=12
That Nazdoggie is on heat agin Gandy...keep those Mutts of yours tightly leashed eh?..at least 'till Friday! <wink>

Sooo!..we hear of o/night CB selling the long end of the curve, the Auction went swimmingly and the Dollar is putting in a creditable performance...ALL the ingredients for a DEflationary event, accept the SM's.
"plenty of Bond buyers at lower prices"...yup..right!
Let's watch the curve steepen as Mr G ponders another rate-cut.

Black Blade (5/29/03; 02:14:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 103712)
DOLLAR DUMPED BY GOLD DIGGERS
http://www.nypost.com/business/76961.htm

Snippit:

May 29, 2003 -- A touch of gold fever is sweeping the world, and could worsen into a deadly allergy to the dollar. Some investors think gold is ready to hit $400 an ounce - and keep soaring - for the first time in seven years, because there aren't enough safe currencies, bonds or stocks to handle the world's trillions in cash hordes. The sinking dollar has prompted Asia's central banks to call a session next month on whether to unload their dollar holdings, which account for about 90 percent of the world's dollar reserves. Currency speculators increasingly are using gold to hedge their gambles with the dollar, euro and yen. Some investors believe that if U.S. Treasury bonds get dumped by more foreign investors, gold could skyrocket.

Black Blade: A result of the fallout in the "Currency War". The Asian CB "session next month on whether to unload their dollar holdings" is definitely news though. It has been speculated that Asian bankers were extremely top heavy in dollars and were desperate to rebalance reserves. The reason for the Peoples Bank of China, the Philippine Central bank, and others buying gold becomes clearer (Singapore and Vietnam are rumored to be buyers too while the Bank of Japan desperately clings to dollars).



Carl H (5/29/03; 02:01:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 103711)
Clinton Wants Change in Presidential Term Limits
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=584&ncid=584&e=5&u=/nm/20030529/pl_nm/clinton_dc
Clinton Wants Change in Presidential Term Limits
Wed May 28, 8:03 PM ET

BOSTON (Reuters) - Former President Bill Clinton (news - web sites) said on Wednesday Congress should change the rule that barred him from seeking a third term in the White House, but stopped short of saying he wants to return as commander-in-chief.

--- SNIP ---

I can think of any number of things to say here, but given the family nature of this fair table and the fact that I don't want our kind host to pull the post, I will just say...

WAg the PoG Reloaded...



Belgian (5/29/03; 01:23:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 103710)
@ silvercollector : sharing Ari's excitement about Wim Duisenberg !?
It is not only about Wim or the ECB...but about Euroland's historical, different stance, on the whole economical/financial happening. Much more "conservative" - "traditional" than the Anglo-American approach !

The dollar and the euro-systems, are already reacting "differently", and will continue to do so, on the coming global crisis. Illustrative for this $/€-differences is the present (confusing) shizofrenia in the UK, about EMU and more recently Euro-constitution (draft).

This widening rift between the dollar Anglo-American block and the growing Euro-block, will result in a policy that will bring Gold back into the epicenter.
Read Shostak's latest on "easing" at GE. Migh inspire on the differences that I'm trying to refer to.

Will the (dollar)-IMF start panicking soon !? Is this the beginning of a monetary "break-up" ?
IMO, the dollar-system is under increased pressure (attack) for its past total package of mis-management . Time for Big changes !? Ordinarry folks, you, me and many others will soon realise that our prosperity is not as evident anymore as it was in the past decades (two generations).

When massive doubts start taking firm grips...people always tend to grab to old remedies. Free Physical Gold to replace the ancient goldstandard ! Just concentrate on the full meaning of this two, old and new concepts. That's what this fine forum is all about, isn't it Sir ?


Gandalf the White (5/29/03; 00:09:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 103709)
WOWSERS Sir Mikal --- You JUST got in under the WIRE !
<;-)

Black Blade (5/29/03; 00:03:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 103708)
US summer natgas demand, inventories seen lower
http://biz.yahoo.com/rm/030528/utilities_natgas_6.html

Snippit:

WASHINGTON, May 28 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas demand this summer is expected to be 3.1 percent lower than last year due partly to a slower economy, and consumers may face tighter supplies this winter, the Natural Gas Supply Association said on Wednesday. Natural gas use this summer by electric power plants -- which use it as fuel -- along with demand from residential, commercial and industrial customers should average 52.5 billion cubic feet a day (Bcfd), down from 54.2 Bcfd last year, the trade group said in its first annual summer gas forecast. This summer's natural gas output is forecast to average 51.3 Bcfd, unchanged from last year, and this will lead to already low gas inventories continuing to be below average going into the winter. "We are entering the summer season with (gas) storage levels at record lows," said NGSA Chairman Bill Transier.

The Bush administration has called for a special meeting with energy industry advisers to identify actions that can be taken immediately to ease short-term gas supply constraints. Thirty Democratic senators wrote U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham on Tuesday asking him to "cast a wider net for recommendations" on the supply problem, including meeting with governors, state and federal regulators and experts in energy efficiency and conservation. By the end of the summer, U.S. supplies of natural gas going into the winter heating season should be about 2.7 trillion cubic feet, compared to a typical level of 3.0 Tcf, the trade group said. Summer weather will determine how much gas can be stockpiled to prepare for the U.S. heating season. To reach 2.7 Tcf by the end of the summer season, the industry must inject 23 percent more gas -- a record amount -- into storage facilities over last year, the group said.

American demand for gas has climbed in recent years to fuel new power plants, and last winter's chilly weather depleted gas stocks almost 40 percent below the five-year average. The energy trade group also blamed government restrictions on drilling for part of the supply problem. "Severe access restrictions to natural gas resources in the Gulf of Mexico and the Rocky Mountains are forcing producers to expand their production into more technically challenging and higher cost areas," the report said. The eastern Gulf of Mexico off the Florida coast has a moratorium on drilling, while the Interior Department has been slow to process lease permits for the Rocky Mountain region, the group said.


Black Blade: We have one of two necessary ingredients to stave off an energy disaster – a crippling economic recession. Now we need mild summer and winter temps. That is less likely an outcome if forecasts are correct. It should be interesting to see what comes of the "special meeting" in Washington DC on NatGas, though a bit late in the game to be meaningful. The article is a bit too optimistic on refill projections in my opinion.


Gandalf the White (5/29/03; 00:02:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 103707)
TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAA, TA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA !!!!
http://www.usagold.com/contest.html

COMEX POG Settlement Price Guessing CONTEST !

QUEST -- The June 2003 COMEX Gold Contract (GC3M) SETTLEMENT Price on May 30, 2003: THE ENTRY DEADLINE is MIDNIGHT Denver time on Wednesday 5/28/03 !!!!!!
===

OFFICIAL FINAL LISTING

As of Thursday, 5/29/03 at 00:01 Denver Time!

VALID ENTRIES (listed in Decending Order)
===

*** $8,752.0 *** The Invisible Hand (5/28/03; 22:23:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 103693)
Bis repetita placet

**** $477.7 **** physicalman (5/28/03; 20:52:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 103680)

**** $450.0 **** Caradoc (05/27/03; 10:31:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 103550)

**** $414.0 **** Basil (05/27/03; 11:40:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 103557)

**** $412.7 **** PorterSweden (5/26/03; 13:51:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 103505)

**** $411.6 **** Humble Pie (5/21/03; 10:08:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 103234)

**** $409.0 **** OZ (05/21/03; 19:14:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 103265)

**** $406.2 **** NEMO me impune lacessit (5/22/03; 14:14:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 103308)

**** $405.0 **** gvc (05/22/03; 20:34:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 103332)

**** $403.2 **** mdgc (5/22/03; 14:20:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 103309)

**** $399.9 **** Moegold (5/23/03; 11:04:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 103364)

**** $397.4 **** Gatekeeper (5/21/03; 09:31:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 103231)

**** $392.7 **** The Hoople (5/21/03; 14:46:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 103256)

**** $392.1 **** Slowman (05/21/03; 21:36:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 103270)

**** $390.0 **** Zhisheng (5/21/03; 09:04:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 103226)

**** $389.0 **** goldengal (5/28/03; 07:12:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 103619)

**** $388.0 **** Sundeck (5/23/03; 02:27:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 103344)

**** $387.6 **** glennh10 (5/23/03; 13:21:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 103373)

**** $385.0 **** Ananse (05/22/03; 21:40:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 103333)

**** $383.5 **** pilgrims_gold (5/24/03; 22:17:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 103444)

**** $383.0 **** cockerel1 (5/26/03; 13:22:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 103503)

**** $382.0 **** Tate (5/23/03; 06:18:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 103357)

**** $381.2 **** jenika (5/26/03; 05:08:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 103490)

**** $380.1 **** Liberty Head (05/22/03; 08:21:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 103291)
**** $380.0 **** a nation of one (5/28/03; 19:45:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 103672)

**** $378.5 **** shades (05/21/03; 18:56:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 103264)
**** $378.4 **** 7nomads (5/28/03; 12:39:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 103643)

**** $377.7 **** Shanti (5/26/03; 14:54:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 103506)
**** $377.6 **** DoubleEagle (5/23/03; 05:10:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 103354)

**** $376.5 **** balzac (5/21/03; 11:16:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 103243)

**** $376.2 **** BlackBart (5/28/03; 13:59:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 103651)

**** $376.0 **** Skydog (05/27/03; 16:24:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 103590)

**** $375.8 **** Rocketman (5/28/03; 22:47:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 103697)

**** $375.5 **** omegaman (5/25/03; 13:45:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 103462)

**** $375.0 **** 21mabry (5/28/03; 21:58:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 103691)
**** $374.9 **** Waverider (5/24/03; 21:03:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 103442)

**** $374.6 **** Gondolin (05/27/03; 11:30:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 103555)

**** $374.3 **** rsjacksr (5/24/03; 20:18:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 103440)

**** $374.0 **** luckypierre (5/22/03; 13:35:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 103305)
**** $373.9 **** Trapper (05/21/03; 20:01:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 103267)

**** $373.7 **** Dollar Bill (5/28/03; 22:43:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 103696)

**** $373.5 **** 1340cc (05/27/03; 22:45:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 103605)

**** $373.3 **** goldquest (5/28/03; 22:14:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 103692)

**** $373.1 **** Eleanor of Aquitaine (5/21/03; 09:16:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 103227)

**** $372.4 **** pinetree (5/24/03; 12:00:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 103424)
**** $372.3 **** Yukon (5/25/03; 21:53:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 103477)
**** $372.2 **** Solomon Weaver (5/22/03; 14:02:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 103307)

**** $372.0 **** alkahulik (5/22/03; 16:20:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 103318)

**** $371.8 **** Believer (5/28/03; 16:03:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 103663)

**** $371.6 **** slingshot (5/24/03; 11:14:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 103422)

**** $371.4 **** Scarab (5/28/03; 17:52:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 103666)
**** $371.3 **** Hektor (5/28/03; 21:50:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 103689)
**** $371.2 **** silvergolong (5/28/03; 11:46:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 103640)

**** $370.7 **** Goldendome (05/27/03; 23:25:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 103608)

**** $370.5 **** Bound Spirit (5/28/03; 14:12:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 103656)
**** $370.4 **** Artie Farkle (5/28/03; 00:37:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 103613)

**** $370.2 **** seagull (05/27/03; 14:59:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 103579)

**** $370.0 **** Klaski (5/28/03; 07:27:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 103620)

**** $369.8 **** Gary Seven (5/23/03; 11:59:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 103369)

**** $369.5 **** Renny (5/28/03; 04:12:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 103618)
**** $369.4 **** otish mountain (5/28/03; 00:26:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 103612)

**** $369.2 **** White Rose (5/28/03; 11:38:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 103639)

**** $369.0 **** goldenpeace (05/27/03; 16:49:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 103592)

**** $368.8 **** VanRip (5/28/03; 07:38:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 103623)
**** $368.7 **** Siochaina (5/28/03; 08:31:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 103627)

**** $368.5 **** NTgeo (05/27/03; 18:01:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 103595)

**** $368.2 **** timbervision (5/28/03; 21:56:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 103690)

**** $368.0 **** wiley (5/25/03; 13:30:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 103460)
**** $367.9 **** Black Blade (5/28/03; 21:44:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 103688)
**** $367.8 **** Tevye (05/27/03; 11:31:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 103556)
**** $367.7 **** Hang Tuff (5/28/03; 13:51:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 103650)

**** $367.5 **** Gonlyold (05/27/03; 11:21:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 103553)

**** $367.3 **** contrarian (5/28/03; 18:09:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 103667)
**** $367.2 **** harryo (5/28/03; 11:22:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 103638)

**** $367.0 **** Goldilox (5/22/03; 15:08:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 103313)

**** $366.8 **** Tranquility Base (5/28/03; 22:30:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 103695)
**** $366.7 **** Yellow Metal (5/28/03; 23:39:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 103703)

**** $366.2 **** Auralia (5/28/03; 08:36:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 103628)

**** $366.0 **** Alaskan hunter (5/28/03; 11:12:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 103636)

**** $365.2 **** John the Jute (5/28/03; 14:05:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 103654)
**** $365.1 **** miner49er (5/28/03; 19:27:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 103670)
**** $365.0 **** Clink! (5/28/03; 07:29:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 103621)

**** $364.8 **** Toolie (5/28/03; 19:28:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 103671)

**** $364.5 **** Jing Zu (5/28/03; 10:49:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 103635)

**** $364.3 **** J-Bullion (5/21/03; 09:25:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 103229)

**** $363.5 **** Simply Me (5/28/03; 12:59:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 103647)

**** $363.3 **** GoldCoaster (05/27/03; 15:40:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 103584)

**** $363.0 **** silvercollector (5/28/03; 20:25:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 103675)

**** $362.8 **** Just waking up (5/28/03; 23:37:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 103702)
**** $362.7 **** donnemuir (5/28/03; 08:03:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 103625)

**** $362.4 **** Magister Aurelius (5/28/03; 10:09:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 103632)
**** $362.3 **** Casey (5/22/03; 14:49:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 103311)

**** $361.0 **** Felix the Cat (5/28/03; 21:12:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 103681)
**** $361.9 **** Shermag (05/27/03; 20:48:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 103600)

**** $360.6 **** Wky_Woodsman (5/28/03; 20:38:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 103679)

**** $360.0 **** Bizkit (5/28/03; 07:54:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 103624)

**** $359.1 **** hiplt (5/28/03; 10:42:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 103634)
**** $359.0 **** Gold N Rule (5/28/03; 21:30:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 103686)

**** $358.5 **** canamami (5/28/03; 22:48:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 103698)

**** $358.0 **** Camel (5/28/03; 09:12:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 103629)

**** $357.5 **** Henri (5/28/03; 07:32:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 103622)

**** $357.1 **** ha_tey_o (5/23/03; 01:41:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 103343)

**** $356.5 **** Kev (5/28/03; 14:39:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 103659)

**** $356.0 **** Cytek (05/27/03; 20:44:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 103599)

**** $355.5 **** Truthcaster (5/28/03; 18:49:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 103668)

**** $355.0 **** Beach (5/28/03; 09:39:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 103630)

**** $354.5 **** Max Rabbitz (05/27/03; 17:43:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 103594)

**** $351.0 **** Topaz (5/23/03; 00:21:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 103339)

**** $344.5 **** Goldbug 1 (05/21/03; 18:50:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 103263)
====
Chok dee Krup
<;-)


mikal (5/29/03; 00:00:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 103706)
*****$369.7*****
Better late than never.




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