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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 6/29/2002
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(Yesterday's Discussion.)
YGM
(06/29/02; 23:10:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 79513)
Abe Lincoln, John Kennedy and the Federal Reserve Bank....
http://www.google.ca/search?q=Lincoln+Kennedy+and+Fed+Reserve&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF8&hl=en&meta=
And we wonder "WHO WANTS TO CONTROL GOLD".....YGM.
YGM
(06/29/02; 22:35:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 79512)
Searching for Shambhala and the Golden Wisdom of Truth.....
Tho the truth may be ever elusive, Shambhala is not.....
An old Tibetan story tells of a young man who set off on the quest for Shambhala. After crossing many mountains, he came to the cave of an old hermit, who asked him, "Where are you going across these wastes of snow?"
"To find Shambhala," the youth replied.
"Ah, well then, you need not travel far," the hermit said. "The kingdom of Shambhala is in your own heart."
mikal
(06/29/02; 21:48:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 79511)
@YGM
Thanks for your great links and comments. I recommend everyone visit your link at msg.#79495 and bookmark. It has over 100 links. Re: China, economics and weaponry. Not to be off-topic, but yours was a very balanced and insightful treatment. We watch China's rising metals consumption, knowing their exponential export output and their domestic demand. Population growth and a stable or rising standard of living mandate more mining and/or imports for industry, private investment, Central Bank Reserves. Also, more precious and base metals go into weapons manufacture, space exploration, and new , exotic (energy, auto & transport, environmental, weapons) applications.
YGM
(06/29/02; 21:02:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 79510)
London Electronic Telegraph "Money" Section carries RBC Report and GATA
http://money.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2002/06/30/cngold30.xml&sSheet=/money/2002/06/30/ixcity.html
Bank retracts gold price-fixing report
By Edward Simpkins (Filed: 30/06/2002)
The Royal Bank of Canada has issued a retraction after a research report by one of its most senior asset managers appeared to support the claims of conspiracy theorists that central banks have secretly connived to keep the price of gold low.
The eight-page report published as a research note by the investment division of the bank speaks of "increasing evidence of unsustainable gold price manipulation" and says the evidence of secret price fixing is "overwhelming".
The report refers to the practice in the past, when the price of gold was pegged to currencies, of central banks dumping gold to keep the price down. "Today, instead of the overt action of yesteryear, it is covert because the market is allegedly free," the report says.
It goes on to claim that instead of selling physical gold the banks have sold derivatives, called hedging, leaving them owing far more metal than they control and giving them an interest in the price of gold continuing to fall.
"The size of the short position, officially acknowledged to be more than 5,000 tonnes by the bullion bank apologists, is thought to be well over 10,000 tonnes and may exceed 15,000 tonnes," the report adds.
The claims were seized on by fringe groups such as the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee which said it showed that mainstream investors were coming round to their view that central banks secretly act to keep a lid on the price of gold in order to support the dollar.
"The establishment in the gold world is coming around to our central premise," Chris Powell, secretary of GATA, told his members last week. "Central banks and particularly the US Treasury Department have been colluding surreptitiously and desperately to suppress the gold price and manipulate the gold market," he added.
The report has caused embarrassment to Royal Bank as many of its clients and some of the biggest companies on the Canadian stock exchanges are gold miners, including Barrick Gold Corp, the world's second largest producer which is also the world's biggest hedger.
Bank of Novia Scotia is one of the largest bullion banks in the world and the Canadian central bank has been a consistent seller of gold over the past decade. Mark Arthur, head of Royal Bank Investment Management, issued a statement saying the report was produced for "internal use" and "in no way reflects the views of Royal Bank".
However, the report is by John Embry, a senior figure at RBC who sets strategy for the bank's $38bn funds under management and chairs its stock selection committee as well as running its Royal Precious Metals fund. He was not available for comment.
Embry predicts in the report that the price of gold is set for further steep rises. "Those with a vested interest in containing the price of gold - central banks, bullion banks, heavily hedged gold companies - will not die easily but the tide is moving strongly against them and the embedded short positions could catapult the gold price higher." *End*
***And the "GOOD NEWS IS" this web page report has a link to GATA for all of London & the British Isles to follow...YGM
YGM
(06/29/02; 20:47:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 79509)
Will Actions in Iraq be the next stimulus for Gold Buying???
http://www.fpp.co.uk/online/02/06/Safir290602.html
The first of these two reports is from the from page 1 of a highly reputable Beirut paper as-Safir dated tomorrow, June 29, 2002; the second from today's paper, June 28, 2002. That second quotes a Turkish paper and I dug up the original Turkish story.
The scale of the operations in Iraq might still be very small, and they don't necessarily mean any large-scale invasion is imminent -- in fact signs are that the US is trying to avoid that. These may be only small-scale patrols or probes.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As-Safir," Beirut, Saturday, 29 June 2002.
American Forces In Northern Iraq
London - as-Safir: HIGHLY informed diplomatic sources have disclosed to as-Safir that the United States of America has begun to carry out a plan of security and military operations aimed at Iraq, that American troops have entered areas in northern Iraq, and that major bases have been set up for them inside Jordan.
The sources report that the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), George Tenet, personally visited northern Iraq when he recently paid a visit to the region. There he gave orders to begin a security operation immediately after President George Bush signed the order empowering the CIA to topple Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. The sources said that the new element in the plan concerns the supposed role of Jordan and that King Abdullah II in agreeing to vacate two military airfields in Jordan to be used by the American troops. Some two thousand American troops have already landed in Jordanian territory. In addition, dozens of soldiers together with members of American intelligence, have been transported into Iraqi territory. The sources said that the Americans have begun a campaign of making contact with the numerous forces in the Iraqi opposition, but that great difficulties confront the idea of setting up an alliance similar to the "Northern Alliance" in Afghanistan.
The sources report that the United States presented the plan to Saudi Arabia, but Riyadh reiterated its refusal to allow its territory to be used for any military action against Iraq. It appears that the matter was taken to other countries to obtain their permission to use their territories should that become necessary.
The sources said that the United States had presented a plan for emergency economic aid to Jordan in case its economic and trade relations with Iraq fall into a crisis.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
as-Safir, Beirut, Friday, 28 June 2002.
The Turkish paper Yeni Safak reported on June 27, 2002, quoting sources in the Turkish Foreign Ministry, that the US has transported about 7,000 troops via heavy transport planes to the Incirlik airbase near Adana in the last two weeks. The paper added that Washington had begun to strengthen its forces in the area after its decision to begin military operations against Baghdad within the coming two months. The paper said that the number of US troops in Turkey would be increased from 7,000 to 25,000 troops during next month.
[English translations by this website's expert]
**Want to bet who's going to get it first if there's a July 4th terrorist incident in America?.....YGM
YGM
(06/29/02; 20:34:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 79508)
WorldCom & Net.....
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_2072000/2072274.stm
Excerpt:
Friday, 28 June, 2002, 15:36 GMT 16:36 UK
Internet fears over WorldCom scandal
WorldCom's $3.8bn (£2.5bn) accounting scandal could deal serious damage to the workings of the internet, some experts are warning.
About 40% of internet traffic uses WorldCom's network at some point.
Technology consultancy Gartner Group is worried that a collapse at WorldCom - following difficulties at rivals including Carrier1, Global Crossing and KPNQwest - could prove disastrous.
The situation for WorldCom customers is "not dire - yet", Gartner said in a note to clients on Thursday.
But it warned that the massive staff cuts the stricken company is planning will devastate service quality.
"Enterprises should therefore make contingency plans," it advised.
Severe disruption
The worst case scenario could include major hold-ups for manufacturing around the world, thanks to today's "just in time" stock-keeping.
Industrial firms now keep only enough parts in stock for a few hours or days, arranging delivery over internet hook-ups with suppliers.
This means a disruption in the internet service could severely affect the supply flow.
Cont'd.....
YGM
(06/29/02; 20:28:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 79507)
More NWO Agenda....
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2002/6/28/181711.shtml
Excerpt....
Cashless Society 'Inevitable;' a Boost to Globalist Taxers?
Wes Vernon, NewsMax.com
Saturday, June 29, 2002
WASHINGTON – Money won't be around anymore in just a few years, according to trend watchers. And the same globalist taxers that are already trying to confiscate your hard-earned money can't wait for the cashless era to begin.
Leading the pack is the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which issued a recent report hailing the prospect.
NewsMax.com last year exposed the OECD's scheme to penalize countries that offer (comparatively) low taxes. Nations that cut taxes and thereby boost their economies are supposedly unfair to Europe's socialist welfare states.
Cont'd...
Topaz
(06/29/02; 20:11:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 79506)
...musings
Sooo much can be gleaned re: goings-on in the world by simply visiting the USAGOLD forum on a regular basis...Hat's off to you MK et al.....amazing!
Well it's a glorious winter morning here in Sydney, one SHOULD be attending Mass, or cleaning the Pool, (it's filthy) then there's the Cars (yuk!) and don't even mention the Boat (it's about 8 gallons of paint away from reclaiming the title of the "Pearl of the Harbour" pleasure Fleet and will be ready for Spring)...yeh right!!
When the going gets tough, the Procrastinators "go cyber"
This matter of "cash" in mutual funds... (a recent BB post indicated one Mutual Fund manager was holding 30%,and PROUD of the fact)...deserves highlighting imo:-
Our (here in Oz) compulsory Superannuation levy recently ramped up to 9% (yes NINE).....What this means is every 2-3 mth's the "entire" weekly wage book of Australia is entering the Market and is being set to work for the future benefit of the contributors.
Fund Managers, charged with the task of deploying these vast amounts of Capital live by the mantra, "match or better the Indices....or DIE" alternately a much worse fate..."have to WORK for a living". The task is "find an Index...any Index, and outperform it." Having done so climb atop a prominent object and "crow" about it.
So "crowing" about being in CASH is the antithesis of the Mantra as Cash is an "underperforming" asset....along with GOLD. (att BB;-)
I've no doubt similar situations exist the (western) World over.
The image this creates is: - vast amounts of cybermoney, hurtling around the Globe at lightning speed, every week being bloated further by contributions and searching, searching, for somewhere, anywhere to drop their load...scary ain't it?
Now the Pilots of these economic Megablimps are immune from individual scandals effecting the Bourses (if I hear Enron, World-com etc one more time I'll SCREAM!) they hear ONLY positives as their load is moving and wriggling wanting to be set free to WORK and GROW.....in their sights at present "HAS to BE" the American equity markets.
BOMBS AWAY!!......welcome to Market Mania part 2.
When these compulsory retirement plans were put in place I firmly believe mechanism's were also (serruptitiously) devised to "protect" these investments going forward in order to (outwardly at least) portray a positive result. One of these mechanism's was the Gold control dynamic which finds us where we are today.
To those people/group's/ and Governments responsible for the current situation may I, here and now, extend a heartfelt THANKYOU - THANKYOU - THANKYOU!!
Never...in living memory, has the Topaz Clan... (we've been in OZ since 1821, and my 6mth old G-Daughter is 8th generation...and a REAL Gem!)...been so materially wealthy in GOLD as we are at present....why if needed, in several minutes and small effort, I can hold in my hand (OK hand'S) the wealth of AGES...untarnished by time, elements, or the ravages of Governments.
OH...WHAT A FEELING!......Topaz jumps for joy and is frozen in time...you get the picture!
YGM
(06/29/02; 19:45:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 79505)
This just in from a friend......XAU Revision.....
http://www.phlx.com/news/xau0626.pdf
Effective MONDAY the XAU INDEX will be revised with the addition of GOLD FIELDS to the INDEX
the weighting will be released on Monday Morning.
YGM
(06/29/02; 19:32:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 79504)
Christian....
Hold On There....
Uneducated, Poor writer. Computer illiterate, not wealthy, hmmmm, sounds like you're talking about me :>} Well guess what? You're a damn captivating and informed person in my books and I think many like myself fully enjoy and appreciate your thoughts and posts...I know I've been following & trying to grasp your trains of thought for a looong time. Since GE (remember?) Nice to see you back in such fine form. As soon as I can afford a new computer I'll gladly send you mine :>} It does have character and use for only 5 yrs old, and lots of life left!....YGM
YGM
(06/29/02; 19:19:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 79503)
tedw...
Thanks for your response....
It is nice to be able to discuss and be enlightened...I regret we cannot carry on this thread as I know you would be very interesting to talk with...I can tell you're informed on your topic and that is always what I seek..... more info...thanks...YGM
Christian
(06/29/02; 18:42:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 79502)
(No Subject)
@ Mr. Gresham-- credit creation gold idea comes from a close friend of mine who works for J.P.Morgan/Chase. All precious metals are currencies just like the dollar. However the reserve requirements on precious metals is not the same as the paper dollars. Credit creation gold trades between central banks at about 30 times commodity gold price. Maine's off book gold debt comes from Governor King. Maine government works with MBNA and AIG off balance sheet metal financing to keep government and industry (corporations) from going under. Corporations of all sizes and types can get state help in financing. Like Enron, World Com, Tyco, ImClone, Sunbeam, Adelphia, Global Crossing, Xerox, Dynergy and at least 6000 other corporate entities need long term financing to finance structures, equipment, etc that is off balance sheet in order to use the money flow to boost income for income reporting and as an expense for tax deduction and to get money back from the Treasury like Enron, GM and thousands of corporations do. Under our present system income can not be dollarized except by becoming more debt. -- Always one screen size-- well I am a poor man, a poor writer and I failed English in school. I have a $67.00 Webtv unit on top of my T.V. that serves as internet access. I am computer illiterate.------- ?Question to anyone? I would like to buy palladium at or near present price. But from where???? All sources want at least $50.00 more then stated market price.
tedw
(06/29/02; 18:28:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 79501)
gold,ear,and China
YGM
Your exactly right when you say the Chinese government masters want money,power, and its trappings. That is the reason why they are preparing to launch a naval blockade on a wealthy,porosperous Island to which they have little or no historical claim.
And the Russians did not "give" them anything. They sold them 1.6 billion dollars worth of submarines. Would you spend that kind of money if you didnt have intentions of possibly using them?
Why does China need a fleet of submarines except to assert dominance in the South China Sea?Who is the enemy that threatens them?
It is only a matter of time before the force their will on the Taiwanese.
And a China with a fleet of submarines can challenge the US Navy and threaten S.Korea, and Japan.
Peace loving the Chinese people may be but they are the slaves of Brutal Totalitarian Masters who are definetely not peace loving. And there is quite a number of US soldiers lying in graves who could testify to this fact if only they could still talk.
nickel62
(06/29/02; 18:13:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 79500)
Very interesting thought!!!
How Many NYSE Trades Are Real?
Where are JPM and Citi Bank's Program Trades?
Program Trading Averaged 44.9 Percent of NYSE Volume During June 17-21, 2002
NEW YORK, June 27 – […The data indicated that during June 17-21, program trading amounted to 44.9 percent of NYSE average daily volume of 1,422.5 million shares, or 638.6 million shares a day. This included program trading associated with the June 21 quarterly expiration of stock-index options and futures…] http://www.nyse.com/press/NT0073C5CF.html
From the top 15 list of "Program" traders, JPMorgan and CitiBank were conspicuously absent. Perhaps they haven't yet discovered computer-controlled trading? Why are the two largest Federal Reserve Banks not involved with "Program Trading"?
Logical questions arise
If 44.9 % of all NYSE "Program Trading" is attributed to the SMALLER banking firms, perhaps, through some secret regulatory shield, the two LARGEST banks ARE heavily involved in program trading but are exempt from reporting requirements? Perhaps the mysterious "Plunge Protection Team" has erected such a regulatory shield behind which they secretly operate? If so, another question can be asked:
How much of the remaining 55% of NYSE trades belong to JPMorgan and CitiBank?...Would these total, aggregated trades constitute MOST of the NYSE trades?...80%…95% of the NYSE trades?
The answer to this last question is important in so far as the public is already fed-up with the overflowing Wall Street ethical sewer and continuing inaction from a hypocritical Congress and it's double-talking regulators. If the American stock market has deteriorated to such a degree that a sizable majority of all NYSE trades are so-called "Basket" or "Program" trades (Equivalent to Enron-style, round-trip executions (Based no-doubt on Fed repos"), one could easily predict tsunami-sized shock waves.
The truth of inappropriate market interventions can never be undiscovered. The outward spread of that truth grows exponentially from one person to another and so on. An important catalyst aiding this information diffusion process is Wall Street's ideology of corruption that has sensitized a growing number of American and World citizens to accept assertions they once would have rejected.
Assertions such as a massive cartel of Western banks led by the Federal Reserve arrayed to suppress the price of gold in order to conceal inflation and construct a bubble-headed Medusa. The not inconsequential result of which has been a tax windfall for bureaucrats and a devastated Sub-Saharan economy dependent solely on gold exports.
The Royal Bank of Canada has recently validated GATA's findings and their private clients now have the manipulation truth and are no doubt are spreading it to their friends. Gold producers also have the manipulation truth and are closing their hedges because they know that rigged markets are historically unsustainable. The truth is an unstoppable disease. Interventions to lower the price of gold are nothing but band-aid treatments for a terminal illness. The illness is an inflated, un-backed currency created by weak politicians.
Jim Sinclair points to the poor prognosis of a growing $300 Billion World gold derivatives burden. These instruments must begin with a loan of physical metal. The gold derivatives listed at the OCC and BIS [Bank of International Settlements] websites represent real gold loans. The huge total derivative figure will surely rise dramatically in the next OCC and BIS reports pushing the sickly patient ever closer to the inevitable flat-line status.
European stock markets are plunging since the second week of March 2002 and the US Dollar plunges right along with them even as gold has steadily risen 14%. The government continues to spend at record pace as it imagines no one notices and that they can somehow continue to borrow , consume and rig their way to prosperity.
Michael Bolser
2215 Summit View Drive
Valrico, Florida 33594
July 1, 2002
gmbolser@atlantic.net
R Powell
(06/29/02; 18:01:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 79499)
Boxman
Thanks for that post from another board. I've been thinking the same lately- that all traded commodities will increase in price after so many long bear years. With the dollar weakening, especially those commodities that are exported like corn and cotton will fly in dollar value. They have already started. This includes gold and silver but I'm still wondering about those that we do not produce but import like coffee, sugar and cocoa?
With the strength that the dollar did attain during the bubble equities market, it's rather a wonder that gold, silver and others held up as well as they did. Charts of the POG in other weakened currencies as compared to the dollar priced charts show this effect. Now and for some time to come, I think we'll see a reverse as it appears the PTB can not support the dollar by raising rates without increasing the already too big burden of servicing debt. Damned if they do and damned if they don't and damned if they do nothing. Bad weather will act on grown commodities as a nuke going off somewhere in the world acts on the price of precious metals. Both the grown stuff like corn and cotton and the metals like gold and silver are going up in fiat terms with the falling dollar and both groups are now (after many bear years) sitting on the edge of explosive up moves depending on the variable particulars of each. It may be fun to watch the lie of no-inflation being blown away by the coming hard-to-explain CRB (including gold and silver) uptrend. Such fun.
Rich
Topaz
(06/29/02; 17:27:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 79498)
Jimbo
Far from being the sharpest arrow in the quiver,it's my contention that the world is not quite finished with Bubbledom and sadly that does not bode well for POG (and we know I mean PAPER.)
Ref:
Topaz (6/29/02; 04:16:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 79457)
Topaz (06/28/02; 20:27:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 79442)
Topaz (6/28/02; 06:10:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 79384)
plus others over the last few weeks.
...since the beginning of the Year my respect for those who "manage" things has grown to (almost) rival my contempt for them - whomever can orchestrate a Nuclear standoff in the sub-continent to supress a gold buying orgy in India (just a theory) deserves utmost respect.
Bottom line, Bullion to have and hold.
koala bear
(06/29/02; 16:25:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 79497)
Calling Caveman
Thanks Gold Standard & Waverider.
I think it was Caveman who mentioned the PowerPoint thing. I am interested to see it.
Russell
Boxman
(06/29/02; 16:17:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 79496)
More on inflation
From another board. Sorry, no link.
As long as the dollar marched ever higher, speculators had every
reason to ignore other markets and make one-way bullish bets on the
greenback. But now that the dollar has commenced its bear market,
virtually the entire world of currencies and commodities is an oyster
for speculative trading. Especially in the commodities markets, one
can today virtually throw darts to pick winners. Soybeans today
enjoyed their biggest gain in 11 months, with prices jumping 8% this
week. Wheat has been very strong, with prices up 6% this week to a
four-year high. Corn was up 7% this week to an 11-month high.
Wholesale pork-belly prices were up 24% during June. Copper prices
today had the strongest gain in a month, rising 3% this week to a 15-
month high. Cotton prices continue their surge, while cocoa added 2%
this week to the highest level in 15 years. The change in commodity
market psychology is almost palpable.
YGM
(06/29/02; 15:39:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 79495)
NWO & Bilderberger Pages....
http://moxnix2.homestead.com/links.html
"tedw"....I won't try to lead the forum into a world politics debate, but I'd like to give you this man's opinion on your statement re; China....
George Soros ( a key Bilderberger) has invested many 100's of millions $$ in China and so have many other very wealthy individuals who are either members of the Committee of 300 or Bilderbergers...Now I believe that all Wars are the direct result of intentions concieved by members of one or the other of both these groups. These people make and break Nations and anything else they aspire to. Russia has members both known and secret of both scurilous groups....
To think that Russia or the USA would give any technology or weaponry to China so she could conquer the free world is silly...All war talk is just smoke and mirrors I believe to keep the masses in eternal flux and off balance while the NWO snakes do their dirty work, especially in the Financial world ie: Central Banks and Gold etc...The Chinese are a gentle peace loving people...Their Gov and masters may not be, but they too want power and money and the trappings of the modern world...As for testing the mettle of the US Pres.
was not hat same mettle tested of China when their embassy was mistakenly??? bombed while after Miloshovic (sp)? No "I BELIEVE" (my own personal thoughts) China does want equal footing or more in Military power alright but not to wage war on the USA...This is definately a complex subject and one to which my present views could rapidly change with unfolding events. But for now I tend to agree with Russell, that it will be an economic war not a shooting of Nukes one.
Russia again will be in a rejuvenated economic state one day and will again become a threat to what most of the world sees as US hedgemony. The free world has its greedy eyes on China's resources and its Billions of people are seen as no more than a market for goods and more wealth for the Elite Cabal....It's all, and always will be, about money No?....Now I hope my personal commentary doesn't touch off a day of political debate for which I may get an email of reprimand to stay on topic, but I believe world events and politics has more to do with Gold than naught...YGM
Solomon Weaver
(06/29/02; 15:19:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 79494)
Jimbo....you have nicely captured the mind that besets us all on brief occasion.
Jimbo (6/29/02; 10:22:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 79477)
Will the POG drop more?
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Jimbo
The "POG" that you are so concerned about means a lot to large financial players, but to most of us here at the Forum the POG is simply something which gives us some daily discussion (Imagine this forum if gold prices were fixed at a set rate).
The great miracle is that little simple-minded ones like us, may quietly hold a small part of our modest savings in the form of simple gold or silver coins, sitting cold and quiet is a safe dark place, and know that that part of our wealth may not be touched by incompetent or manipulative managements.
For a brief answer to your actual question, go back in the gold charts and compare the period surrounding the announcment of The Washington Agreement in September 1999, we have once again reached to level of that high, but done it in a much more consistent pattern. I seriously doubt that you will once again see a buying opportunity in the 260-290 range again. But I assume that you were lucky enough to buy in that range recently....do not bemoan what appear to be reductions in your peak profits since then...as one day you will be very glad for the amount of wealth in gold which will have weathered the storm...and I don't think we have seen the full force of the storm.
Poor old Solomon
steady
(06/29/02; 14:36:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 79493)
a question worth pondering
by Bob Nicholson
The "Act to Provide a Government for the District of Columbia,"
Section 34 of the Forty-First Congress of the United States, Session
III, Chapter 61 and 62, enacted February 21, 1871, states that the
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA is a corporation, whose jurisdiction is
applicable only in the ten-mile-square parcel of land known as the
District of Columbia and to whatever properties are legally titled to
the UNITED STATES, by its registration in the corporate County, State,
and Federal governments that are under military power of the UNITED
STATES and its creditors. Under this provision, the military Congress of
the UNITED STATES has the power to pass private international law for
application within the federal District of Columbia.
The Act provides that the UNITED STATES, the corporation, has
jurisdiction only within the confines of the ten-mile-square parcel of
land, known as the District of Columbia, and its legal property; and
that the corporation Congress has power to pass Private International
Law, applicable only in the District of Columbia.
The Act specifically defines the jurisdiction and the venue of the
corporation.
UNITED STATES CODE, Title 28, 3002(15)(A), basically reiterates that the
UNITED STATES is a corporation.
What was not said in 1871, but was implicit, was what is plainly stated
at Title 28, 3002(15)(3): That all departments of the UNITED STATES
CORPORATION are part of the corporation.
Title 28, UNITED STATES CODE, is Copyrighted Private
International Law. Indeed, the UNITED STATES CODE, in its entirety,
is Copyrighted Private International Law, and applicable only in the
District of Columbia.
The previous information was taken almost verbatim from the
beginning of a letter sent to King County Sheriff David Reichert of
Seattle from Gary W. Phillips. Phillips, 69, whose career with the
Immigration and Naturalization Service began in 1956 and resulted in his
being the federal agency's director at Sea Tac Airport for 20 years,
began challenging the income tax in 1985 (The Idaho Observer, March,
2000). After nearly 40 years of government service, Phillips was forced
to flee his country to protect his life after exposing the facts of the
illegality of the federal government's criminal income tax collection
scam -- facts that are becoming well know among informed people
throughout the country.
Why did the Congress feel the need to separate the District of Columbia
with a special Act of Congress? What kind of a government did it create?
The Congress created a corporation. Where did the Congress find the
authority in the Constitution to reconstitute any part of the united
States as a corporation? Quite simply, the 1791 Constitution was set
aside to make room for the corporation. Would this Act benefit the
Republic? In truth, it would be of no benefit. The corporate bottom line
is profit. The municipal bottom line is service. To replace our service-
oriented form of government with a profit-oriented form of government
without our knowledge or consent can only be described as treason.
The process began in the mid 1860s after the Civil War -- a war that
depleted the country financially. Once the smoke settled European
international bankers arrived in town. The international bankers and the
Congress conjured up this bit of mischief and passed it into law.
But whose law? This Congress broke faith with the People in 1871 and
sold us out when they formed this corporation and made it the
government of the District of Columbia.
A few superficial changes were made to the original Constitution and it
was no longer the real thing. Congress did not change the name of the
document, so they could claim to be reading from the Constitution. They
merely changed it from the Constitution for the united States of America
to the CONSTITUTION OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. They changed the "for"
to "of' and capitalized all the letters. All of the sudden we had two
Constitutions.
The Act of 1871 provided a government for the District of Columbia and
created a corporation entitled the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
whose jurisdiction extends only over corporate entities created by the
municipal corporation and operative only in the District of Columbia.
Washington, District of Columbia is the capitol of the District of
Columbia, not the United States of America, and all laws passed within
the District of Columbia are applicable and enforceable only in the
District of Columbia and it's possessions.
The States of the Republic are not possessions of the District of
Columbia. Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Guam are possessions of
the District of Columbia as well as property legally titled to the
UNITED STATES by states and counties.
The UNITED STATES CODE, in totality, was put together in the
District of Columbia as Copyrighted Private International Law and is
applicable only in the District of Columbia. By their own rules of
jurisdiction, the UNITED STATES ATTORNEYS have no business
prosecuting anyone outside of the District of Columbia. The UNITED
STATES DISTRICT COURT has no venue outside of the District of
Columbia and, therefore, has no jurisdiction outside of the District of
Columbia and its possessions. The Congress cannot pass a law that is
applicable in the several States of the Republic.
If all the laws passed in the District of Columbia are Private
International Law, this includes all of the UNITED STATES CODE and
the statutes at large passed after 1871, and are applicable and
enforceable only in the District of Columbia, then why have they
become the law of the land?
Essentially, this unholy alliance, from its treacherous inception in a
international banker-influenced post-Civil War era, built an illegal
corporation that has systematically corrupted every state, county and
city in this nation and corrupted the thinking of most people of the
united States of America.
This illegal corporation has created dozens of agencies, the IRS, FBI,
DEA, and the BATF, to name a few, which employ thousands of agents who
receive excellent salaries and benefits for betraying their friends and
families while enforcing the malefic edicts of the so-called Congress.
The men and women of Congress smile, speak softly, and then release
their ill-begotten creatures to destroy those who do not fully conform
to their wishes, and strike fear into hearts of those who do.
Kidnapping and conspiracy are involved in every arrest and conviction by
federal authorities outside of the District of Columbia.
The question now leads to whether our duly elected public officials
swear an oath to uphold the Constitution for the united States of
America, the Republic within which our rights are protected by a
service-oriented government, or swear an oath to the CONSTITUTION OF THE
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, the profit-oriented corporation?
It appears by their actions that most government employees, knowingly or
unknowingly, have sworn an oath to the corporate UNITED STATES.
It is our duty as the People who elected them into office, to demand
accountability from our "public" officials and confront them as to where
their loyalties lie. Is it with the corrupt, treasonous corporation that
is controlled by foreign enemies from within and without, or is it with
our constitutional Republic, the united States of America and her
citizens?
Most of us will I ask, can this be true? Ask yourself: How can this
government enact such scams as the unconstitutional and
privately-owned Federal Reserve System -- a for-profit corporation, or
the unconstitutional income tax system, where there is clearly no proof
a law exists which states the average person is required to file a tax
return (there have been full page ads in USA Today newspaper paid for
and written by former IRS agents detailing this truth)?
How can they send our boys off to fight foreign wars without a
declaration of war? How can they administer false prosecutions against
people, like Gary Phillips, whose attempt to expose the truth forced him
to flee the country he honorably served his entire life?
Now we have Mark Alan of Oroville, Wash., being arrested on Feb. 8,
200l, for allegedly assaulting a federal officer (The Idaho Observer,
March, 2001). The charges are false and witnesses were at the scene to
testify as such. Mark Alan has been kidnapped, arrested and imprisoned
in Spokane County Jail without bail, and is presently challenging the
court's jurisdictional authority based on the previously reported facts.
In response to Mark's arguments Assistant U.S. Attorney Tom Hopkins who is
representing the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, said that Mr. Alan's arguments
may have been novel in 1800, but in 2001 he has insulated himself from the
reality of 200 years of legal history that rejected his arguments-inferring
the Constitution is outdated.
He stated a UNITED STATES case that confirmed this in 1997. Mr. Alan
responded, asking Mr. Hopkins as to which United States he was referring.
Further, Mark very pointedly demanded to see Federal Magistrate Judge
Cynthia Imbrogno's oath of office -- which she has never provided -- and
went into immediate recess when asked for it in open court.
If the inference is that the Constitution is outdated, then please tell us
which part is outdated, Mr. Hopkins. Is it the part that is supposed to
prevent excessive bail (8th Amendment)? Is it the part that is supposed to
allow us freedom of speech, the press, or religion (1st Amendment)? Is it
the part that is supposed to allow us to be secure in our homes (the 4th
Amendment)? Or perhaps it's the part that, according to Thomas Jefferson
and current Attorney General John Ashcroft, allows us the right to bear
arms as a last defense against tyranny in government (the 2nd Amendment)?
By 2001, anyone who challenges the authority of the UNITED STATES with
facts of law and history is either forced to flee for fear of their life,
demonized in the courts to the point nobody will believe them, are
intimidated with threats, falsely imprisoned or just simply murdered.
The media continues this perfidy with outright lies and very artfully
contrived distortions of the facts.
If our Founding Fathers were alive today and you were to meet one of
them, ask yourself: "What might he think of me? Am I striving to
preserve the heritage he gave his life and sacred honor to provide me?
Mark Alan and Gary Phillips have sacrificed everything to protect our
heritage. They could stand up with our Founding Fathers...Could YOU?
George Washington once said, "Government is like fire. We bring it into
our rooms to keep us warm, but we build a chimney to keep the fire from
consuming us. The Constitution is the chimney that keeps government from
consuming us."
Has that chimney collapsed? Is it simply in need of restoration? Or is
the house already on fire?
The manner in which Phillips, Mark Alan and others have been treated is
an indication that our constitutional house is, in fact, on fire.
From the April 2001 Idaho Observer:
The Idaho Observer
P.O. Box 457
Spirit Lake, Idaho 83869
Phone: 208-255-2307
Email: observer@coldreams.com
Web:
tedw
(06/29/02; 14:13:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 79492)
China and war
YGM posted the following in his post Latest Dow Theory Letter:
"I've been warning about all the above for months if not years. China, I believe, has given up on war as the way to win in the battle for world power. The path that China has chosen is economic supremacy, and certainly economic supremacy in Asia. "
Nothing could be farther from the truth.
Pg A11 of Friday,June 28,2002 edition of the Wall Street Journal reports the following:
1) China and Russia have signed a deal whereby China is buying 8 diesel powered submarines in a deal valued at 1.6 billion dollars
2) China already has 4 of these submarines and the deal will bring their total to 12.
3) The submarines will enable China to mount a naval blockade of Taiwan.
4) Russia will equip the submarines with long-range Antiship klub missles.
"This puts China in the position that they will never have to kowtow to an American naval task force as they did in 1996" says Alan Dupont, an Asia-Pacific security expert at Australian National University.
******************************
The handwriting is on the wall folks. China is preparing for a naval blockade to bring Taiwan (completely dependent on foreign trade)to its knees. I believe the capture of the American hostages a year ago was just a China test of the mettle of our President.
Its going to happen and its just a matter of time. China is preparing NOW.
Never for 1 second think that these are good people running China. They are evil, Godless,communists and there is nothing they wont do to further their agenda, including murdering their own people.
And thats the rest of the story.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(06/29/02; 14:10:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 79491)
In bookstores for $14.95 (plus tax). Get it here for ONLY $5.95 ($3 postage)!
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/abcs.html
 | The ABCs of Gold Investing"Gold will play a critically important role in American investment portfolios in the years to come. This book provides investors a basic education on private gold ownership from one of the nation's top experts." --Rep. Ron Paul, Texas, U.S. House of Representatives Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.
|
Mr Gresham
(06/29/02; 13:07:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 79490)
ok, ok
http://www.bearforum.com/cgi-bin/bbs.pl?read=242217
before I go, here's one more (very good) read, from John Mauldin -- can't remember his direct link...
Mr Gresham
(6/29/02; 12:48:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 79489)
Whew!
http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Credit+Bubble+Bulletin&content_idx=13012
So, the weekend is when I'm supposed to catch up -- on -- EVERYTHING?
Post and run -- gotta book it in the "physical" today -- don't want that nasty ol' real estate bubble to pop on me.
(I've now taken to E-mailing myself the links to things I want to read later. Yeah, right.)
Ten Bears -- There is iron in your word of life. It IS good.
Christian -- good to see you back and safe. Thanks for the home equity stats and projections. I've wanted to see numbers like this for some time, and sort of was carrying a blank space in my head with the general shape of it, that you've now filled in. Question: Where do you get "credit creation gold" idea? Another site? I search for that phrase and get some interesting links, but nothing exactly. Likewise, info on Maine's gold debt. Personal curiosity: why are your posts always one screen size? Word processor limit or something like it? TIA, bro;, and OK if you're shy to disclose any of the above.
YGM -- Thanks for Russell again. Housing bubble is on my mind, too, (and I haven't even read Noland yet for this week). Maybe the next phrase in world history, economics, politics is going to be: "It's China, stupid." Gotta get there, soon. The Dollar Bubble will eventually be seen as a flash in the pan, a late Imperial stage flare-up.
Misetich -- thanks for lots of good posts and links lately. (Turning into a BB, Jr.? Ah, one could do worse...)
Black Blade, Horatio: VGPMX is where my (tiny) IRA has been for several years now, but I should have clipped it off after the great Reg Howe site's posts about Barrick, which is its largest holding I think. Over to Toqueville, probably.
BillinOregon -- Thanks for Arnold again. He obviously loves economics (while selling mortgages) and watches the larger picture at the nexus of bond and money markets (5x larger than SM). A good balance of our "extreme" views and the larger finance community view.
Jimbo -- I think you're missing the (as yet unproven) Another/FOA idea of paper/physical separation and a radical market closure "event", and the migration of "Giants" from paper to physical, where time remaining is more important than price obtained. This unprovable-in-advance theory tracks a falling gold price as quoted today, with an almost-instant cut-off of those quotes at a certain juncture in political time. Play around with these dynamics at your own peril.
slingshot -- it is amazing that they will complain about SM losses and then not sell. I picture unblinking zombies marching into the flames? In IRAs and most 401ks they can usually do this with no tax problems, and I have happily sat there with some friends handing the phone back and forth as they made that switch. Saving some single mom $10,000 makes my day/month.
But hey -- who said people are in it to maximize their wealth? They are playing both "tails", and badly. They have heavily discounted their old age years, AND they are trying to make a quick buck. Lose/lose.
The dream of riches, badly innumerated in most minds, is a powerful addiction, and they retreat into the recesses of rationalization when it starts to go sour. (I'll never forget one friend's descripion of the truck backing up to the house to clean out their furniture after her compulsive gambler Dad had lost everything.) Las Vegas is still open for business, last I heard, against all rational personal "business models." Call me when it closes.
And that's what you have to have in this gold/economic survival game: Your own private business model. Your store, your inventory. You buy wholesale, sell retail.
People do not appreciate money until it is gone, as in the 1930s when the best remark I have heard about it said: "We had everything in those days -- except money." And the families WITH money, lived quietly, and low-key, appreciating what they did have.
Max Rabbitz
(6/29/02; 11:45:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 79488)
Silver Confiscation?
I was surprised to learn that the Emergency Banking Bill of 1933 gave the President the power to confiscate silver along with gold (Title I., Sec. 2.b). They just didn't implement the silver part. Considering the huge short positions now existing in silver, could they be planning confiscation at current prices as an a way out during a crisis? Is why Black Blade has a preference for . . . is it Morgans?
Christian
(6/29/02; 11:32:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 79487)
(No Subject)
Income can not be dollarized except by becoming more debt. The state of Maine has a 1.7 trillion dollar off balance sheet gold loan debt. This is not public information. The FED, Treasury, ESF, State governments, Banks and Corporations do not list or make public the off balance sheet gold, silver or other precious metal financings. Combine all of these off balance sheet debts and you get a 140 trillion dollar number in the USA alone. This number is now so large that the very effort to lesson the burden of debt will increase debt. The mass effect to liquidate will drive down prices. The more debtors attempt to pay by selling the more they will owe, for the economic asset falls in value faster. Debt deflation is a dangerous force when it undermines the ability of individuals and corporations or government to survive their debt. Enron, World Com, Tyco ImClone, Sunbeam, Adelphia, Global Crossing, Xerox, Dynegy, Arthur Anderson and others have shown what can happen to shareholder equity. Now that gold, silver and other precious metals are part of the paper dollar reserve system, they are also used just like the reserve system. The difference between credit creation gold and commodity gold is the price and the right to use the commodity gold for credit creation. Commodity gold for commodity use is presently priced at the $320+- area, while credit creation gold as credit creation is worth $950+- area. The reason for the price difference is its use in the fractional reserve system that makes it possible to lend the same gold over and over for credit creation. The people who understand this and know how to use it live upstairs and the rest of us who are unable to figure this out live downstairs in order to serve those upstairs.-- In 1990 home equity = $3 trillion, with debt to equity of 50%. In 2000 home equity = $5 trillion with debt to equity of 58%. In 2001 home equity = $5.4 trillion with debt to equity at 62%. In 2002 home equity = $5 trillion with debt to equity of 70%. It is estimated by the FED that in 2003 home equity = $4 trillion with debt to equity of 80%. It is estimated by the FED that in 2004 home equity = $1 trillion with debt to equity of 94%. It is estimated by the FED that in 2005 home equity = $0 with debt to equity of 100%. Income cannot be dollarized except by more debt..... Every single day the interest cost on Federal debt exceeds $1 Billion, be it Sunday or any of the Holidays. The FED is pumping at least an average of $7 Billion dollars every working day into the system that HAS TO BE BORROWED. No dollars are issued in non-debt form. If the people do not borrow it the government will be forced to borrow it in people's name. Even if it means to create useless wars and killings or useless programs such as aluminum-bauxide chemtrails and terrorism. In our system debt cannot be allowed to repay debt because it would mean freedom. To build an economic concentration camp income cannot be dollarized except by becoming more debt.
a nation of one
(6/29/02; 11:25:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 79486)
Gold Standard message 79458
"Am I talking through my hat, or am I next in line for the Nobel Prize in Economics?" Maybe you will win a new hat.
slingshot
(6/29/02; 11:19:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 79485)
Jimbo
Too Powerful and PERVASIVE
The only power they have is what we allow them to have.
I listen to those around me complain about how much they have lost in the stock market. Day in and day out. Yet they fail to do anything about it. Payroll deductions are still going to their brokers and other forms of so called retirement plans. They are in for the long haul and believe that the government will fix the problems. How is the government going to fix this Pro Forma when itself uses it to project budget surpluses. Those who are heavily invested in PM's and worry I can say that I wish I had that problem. The problem I have with PM's is that right before payday they go up in price and due to my financial struture have to eat a little more in premiums and Spot. My investments are small purchases and the money could have spent on other items which have no redeeming value at all. The advise given at this forum is sound and can cover many disasters which can befall us. Still you have to do your own research and do what is best for you and your family.
Slingshot---------------<>
sourdough
(6/29/02; 11:18:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 79484)
Gold Bonds
We may be seeing some gold producers raising cash to buy out their hedges. Could someone comment on the feasibility and possibility of "UN" hedged producers taking advantage of cheap money to float gold backed bonds?
Gold producers by necessity have to sell gold to cover the cash costs of mining. Small 50,/100,000 ounce producers (I have some Canadian producers in mind), with a $250-270 cash cost, find it necessary to sell at spot 320, enough production to at least cover the 270 costs of production.
A rising gold price has been acting positively with the Canadian dollar and negatively with the U.S. dollar.
Would it not be worthy of consideration to examine the possibility of floating a gold (production) backed bond priced in Canadian (or any other currency if desired) to cover production cost and allow the producer the ability not to sell until supply /demand fundamentals allow for a higher price?
If a producer borrows money paying low interest, in a currency that fundamentally should strengthen (Canadian), at a valuation based on producer cost ($270,etc.), could a market not be found for this type of offering?
Perhaps they might be convertible to shares, and /or have an option to pay physical gold interest.
The company could sell enough gold to cover interest, until the stipulated minimum selling price target is reached (say 350-375)?
This would not only cause concern for hedged companies, creating the necessity to cover, but would also remove production from the market overcoming the manipulative selling which now controls the gold price.
The investor receives interest, and a rising stock price, the 270 gold valuation provides safety of investment capital, the producer will reap the profit between the free gold price and bond interest cost/s.
So, why are the NON hedgers NOT KEEPING THEIR GOLD PRODUCTION OFF THE MARKET AND BUSTING THE CARTEL?
Are there any investments of this nature available at present?
Some larger producers who can afford it, are holding back some of their production for higher prices.
Is it not possible for others (smaller) to do the same with the current low interest rates and safe haven demand for investments that will preserve capital and give a return equal to or better than current options?
Speedy
(6/29/02; 11:10:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 79483)
gold
There will be a day when the idiots controlling the metals market will retreat in their holes!!! I do not know how many christians read this forum, but I am one and I know what the bible perdicts in this area!!! The world will experience a major war and total monitary collaspe in world currency's !! The only thing I see that the bible talks about is gold and silver in the ENDTIMES!!! So if you have gold or silver now, you better hold and wait for the right time, WHICH I feel in my gut is very near!!
Horatio
(6/29/02; 11:09:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 79482)
Don't get locked out !!!!! Don't sell
<http://custom.marketwatch.com/1.gif>
Vanguard closes gold fund as demand surges
[CBS Marketwatch.com - The story behind the numbers]
<http://custom.marketwatch.com/1.gif>
By Justin Wiser, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 5:21 PM ET Jun 28, 2002
VALLEY FORGE, Pa. (CBS.MW) - The Vanguard Group closed its Precious Metals Fund to all new investments Friday following a flood of inflows during the first half of the year as gold prices surged.
The $628 million Precious Metals Fund (VGPMX: news, board), which focuses on the booming gold sector, has attracted $124 million in new cash this year.
Gold-oriented funds have raced past the slumping stock market year-to-date, returning an average of 54 percent through Thursday, according to fund-tracker Lipper Inc. The Vanguard fund is up 33 percent over that span.
"Substantial cash inflows have raised our concerns about investor time horizons and expectations," Vanguard Chairman John Brennan in a statement about the closure.
Consolidation within the precious metals industry has also limited the number of gold stocks to invest in, he said. The Vanguard fund currently holds just 28 stocks, and the top 10 holdings account for 74 percent of assets.
a nation of one
(6/29/02; 11:02:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 79481)
BarnacleBob message 79467
"How may the official inflation rate remain 2.6% and federal employees receive a total of 8.88% in pay raises without raising the prospects of inflation?" By lying.
YGM
(6/29/02; 10:59:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 79480)
Some Excerpts from Latest Dow Theory Letter.....
Subscription....No Link....
June 28, 2002 -- Economists take notice -- all facts are history. So to start, let's go over a bit of history.
The US dollar has sustained it biggest quarterly drop in 14 years. Why? A decline in foreign demand for US assets.
Financier George Soros says the US dollar could drop by one third over the next few years. Is George shorting the dollar?
The House votes (by one vote) to raise the US debt ceiling another $450 billion to a total of $6.4 trillion. The US is swimming in an ocean of debt.
US consumer spending "unexpectedly" declined in May for the first time in six months.
The broad M-3 money supply increased by $38 billion in the latest week.
Stocks fell worldwide in the first half of 2002 -- investors lost trillions of dollars as US stocks suffered their biggest first-half loss since the 1970s, based on growing distrust of US executives and a concern that a rebound in earnings may be slower than originally expected.
So much for history.
I thought the most significant headline in any of the 12 newspapers I read daily was this one from the front page of today's New York Times.
"China Races to Replace US As Economic Power in Asia. China is rapidly strengthening its economic presence across Asia, gobbling up foreign investment and chipping away at the United States' position as the region's economic engine.
"As it buys up goods, parts and raw materials from its neighbors as never before, China has accompanied its new heft with diplomatic efforts to assure them that it wants to offer cooperation, not competition. Many have rushed to China's embrace and are nimbly shifting their economic alliances, particularly as the United States makes its way through only a tentative economic recovery."
"So far, the Bush administration has been loathe to talk publicly about China as an economic challenger in Asia.. . . . As part of what China is calling its 'go global' economic strategy, the Bank of China has already opened branches in Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore and will soon reopen one in Jakarta."
By the way, the Bank of China was an early subscriber to Dow Theory Letters.
I've been warning about all the above for months if not years. China, I believe, has given up on war as the way to win in the battle for world power. The path that China has chosen is economic supremacy, and certainly economic supremacy in Asia.
Gold moves and accumulates in the direction of economic power. And gold is now flowing into Asia as it leaves the US and Europe. Meanwhile, the US via the Greenspan Fed continues to enlarge its liquidity base. Yankee paper dollars spew forth throughout the world in return for the world's services and merchandise.
As the ocean of dollars grows larger, it also grows larger in relation to a limited supply of real money -- gold. I continue to believe that at its current price in relation to dollars, gold, better known as real money, is the cheapest thing around. Or to put it the correct way, the ever-expanding supply of paper dollars and other assorted fiat currencies are extremely expensive in terms of gold.
In the last few months we've seen the fiat currency of Argentina go down the drain, Brazil is following and now the Mexican peso is turning weak. If you were an Argentinian, think of what you would have saved in assets and tears if you had your money in gold rather than in the junk currency of Argentina.
And how much longer will it be until all paper currency comes under suspicion? Just a thought, just a thought.
#2 Excerpt....
Suggestion -- I would use any forthcoming market strength to move out of common stocks.
Gold -- There's a chance that gold and particularly the gold stocks could undergo a full correction in terms of dollars. However, and this is important -- I have stressed that gold and gold share should not be purchased as an investment. Gold and most gold shares pay no return. Gold and gold shares should be purchased and held as insurance. Gold is a store of value, which the dollar is not. Gold shares are simply the entities that produce the store of value -- gold.
Gold and gold shares should be held by all those who believe that the purchasing power of the dollar is on the way down, as it has been since 1913. The change is that the Fed is now expanding bank credit at a frantic rate. The other change is that the US is awash in debt.
Periods of massive credit creation always end in deflation. Japan has been going through that process ever since 1989. The difference between Japan and the US is that the Japanese had, and still have, huge savings. US consumers, on the other hand, have no saving except their homes. This is a very tenuous situation. As the US bear market moves on, it is bound to hit the housing bubble. The coming deflation is also bound to impact on the US debt mountain.
Gold is pure money. Unlike Federal Reserve notes (we improperly call these notes dollars), gold is not a product of debt. Thus, when the great deflation arrives, gold will become an island of safety. At that time, there's no telling how many dollar it will take to buy and ounce of gold.
*****"Because this is a subscription report I'm not going to be in the habit of reposting it here, but have done so today to show that "Mainstream Dow Analysts" are getting on the "Gold" bandwagon and this particular 'Newsletter' is read up and down the length of Wall St".....Russell is a very astute market analyst and he sounds as tho he should be writing here for real Goldbugs.......YGM.
goldquest
(6/29/02; 10:32:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 79479)
Xerox
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,746299,00.html
next to fall?
misetich
(6/29/02; 10:25:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 79478)
Still Searching for signs of "US economic recovery" Not in cities budgets
http://epinet.org/index.html
Snip:
CITIES CAUGHT BETWEEN FALLING REVENUES AND RISING COSTS FACE SERVICE CUTS
From Portland, Maine, to Seattle, Washington, cities are facing hard choices as rising post-9/11 costs collide with shrinking revenues. Increasingly strapped for cash, localities are struggling to cope with growing demand for security and other services.
A new paper published today by the Economic Policy Institute looks at a sampling of cities that have begun experiencing or projecting budget shortfalls for this budget year and next. In U.S. Cities Face Fiscal Crunch, economist Max B. Sawicky points to harder times ahead for cities, big and small, throughout the country, as they struggle to maintain essential services.
Sawicky notes that long before the disaster of September 11, most local governments were anticipating belt-tightening measures because of the economic downturn that began in March. The events of September 11 made this problem far worse, as bills for heightened security began to pour in. By February, the National League of Cities reported, cities had already run up around $2 billion in costs for extra security expenditures.
It comes as no surprise that New York City's projected budget shortfall of $6 billion – nearly 15% of the city's total budget – is the largest dollar gap facing any of the cities Sawicky reports on. However, the paper reports surprisingly bad news for other cities as well.
"This is an equal opportunity budget crunch that is hitting big cities, small cities, and everything in between," said Sawicky. Among the examples he cites:
In Atlanta, this year's $82 million deficit represents 18.8% of the city's budget and has forced Atlanta's mayor to reduce her own salary and personal staff and to raise property taxes.
Detroit is facing a $94 million deficit caused by reduced revenue and increased overtime costs for police and fire fighters.
Boston's projected $100 million deficit means that city will have to make up – or cut – 5.6% of its entire budget to bring it into balance. Albuquerque's $18 million projected shortfall represents the same 5.6% budget share.
Seattle's $50 million shortfall is 8% of its annual budget.
In a number of smaller cities (population under 100,000) the dollar amounts of deficits are smaller but represent a large percentage share. The $2.1 million gap in Gresham, Oregon, is 11% of its budget. Portland, Maine's $11.6 million deficit and San Luis Obispo, California's $2.6 million shortfall are both 7.9% of their overall budgets.
Sawicky notes that the states will actually compound some cities’ pain if they, facing deficits of their own, reduce their normal payments to local governments as a way to cover their own budget shortfalls.
Adding to the cities’ woes are federal actions that either inadequately address the needs of localities or make matters worse. Sawicky notes, for example:
Rising state obligations, such as increases in Medicaid recipients, will make it harder for states to meet their obligations to localities.
Cuts in federal income and estate taxes will shrink state revenues further. The repeal of the federal estate tax, alone, is expected to cost the states $9 million per year in lost revenue.
Misetich:
No signs of recovery in cities budgets, uuhhm. Facing budget crunch. I guess everybody is WAITING for the mysterious recovery and return to the 'good times'. Waiting and hoping may not be the best preparation for deteriorating economic conditions, falling stock market, depreciating dollar
Got gold?
Jimbo
(6/29/02; 10:22:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 79477)
Will the POG drop more?
I'm a novice at tracking the price of gold. But it was very obvious that the POG retraced strongly in June. Best I can figure, gold dropped around $14 or so from its high of around $330, for a 4.2 percent loss. (Of course, those who hold gold stocks saw much larger declines.)
It also was obvious that the forces controlling the POG, ranging from the cabal to the PPT, ALWAYS had the upper hand. Like a shell game, they would allow the POG to rise slightly, attracting new investors and luring others to buy more, then sell off at strategic times to reap profits, trigger sell orders and discourage weak investors.
Anyone who follows the economy and the markets wondered why, with a falling dollar and so many corporate bombshells hitting with great frequency, more investors weren't buying gold and gold stocks? As the dollar and the markets sunk daily, so did the POG and gold stocks. The manipulation was rampant and seemed to gain strength, not taper off as the month proceeded.
Which leaves me and many other investors asking serious questions such as:
--How low will the POG fall, and when will we see another gold rally?
--When will those who manipulate gold run out of weapons and retreat?
--What will it take, in terms of an economic or political catastrophe, to stimulate the POG's growth? (Not much seems to do that now!)
--Are the gold manipulators simply too powerful and pervasive?
I've learned patience and savvy from those who post here. However, I wonder if the brilliant minds whose thoughts and opinions I read daily in this forum can look objectively at these questions and sort out possible answers? The way things have been going recently, it's possible we'll never see $350 gold (or even a jump back up to $330 gold) by year's end.
Tell me I'm wrong. And why. Thanks!
barnaclebob
(6/29/02; 10:14:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 79476)
Real non-adjusted rates of inflation
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A52368-2002Jun26.html
On Monday the price of a postage stamp goes up 3 cents, or 8.8%. This is the third raise in 18 months, Ouch!
- - - - - - - -
The House subcommittee with authority over federal pay yesterday approved a 4.1 percent increase for about 1.8 million Defense Department civilians and federal workers effective next Jan. 1.
The pay adjustment is smaller than last year's 4.6 percent increase, which also applied to civilian government employees and military personnel.
4.1% + 4.6% = 8.7% simple pay increase in less than two years. Compounded the pay increase is 8.88%, which matches the same 8.8% increase in the postal rates.
How may the official inflation rate remain 2.6% and federal employees receive a total of 8.88% in pay raises without raising the prospects of inflation?
The Federal Employees and Government Corporations appear to be keeping up with the "real rate" of inflation whilst the "official" adjusted rate of inflation declaration is to say the least "lacking" credibility.
How does the song go? "Signs, Signs everywhere theres Signs!
Old Yeller
(6/29/02; 09:27:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 79475)
More on WCOM's woes
http://216.46.231.211/boards/user/non-frames/message.asp?forumid=4&messageid=129667&threadid=129648
Wall St. is already spinning this as a company specific event,the financial alchemy deployed in this case is far from uncommon.
I often wonder if TPTB had any idea how far this bubble-induced stock option mania and it's deceptive tax benefits inflating earnings while stealing wealth from the common shareholders would travel.I remember reading Bill Parrish's expose of CSCO and MSFT's option pyramid scheme several years ago and being comepletely appalled by regulatory complacency in the face of such obvious and massive deception.
Of course,now it is a widely recognized 'problem'that even the great man himself has tackled in public discourse.Alan,where were you in 1996-early 2000?
Something about barn doors and horses would seem rather applicable in this case.
Ten Bears
(6/29/02; 09:23:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 79474)
Pundits, Prophets, & Prognosticators
1998 Prudent Bear Poster--"The Fed economic model showed that by 1995 all tax revenue from individuals would not pay interest on the debt. Therefore, the money supply had to be greatly increased to increase tax revenue. Rubin and Greenspan had to create a bubble in order to extend the life of the credit money system."
Thomas Jefferson--"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them, will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."
Fiat Currency vs Gold, and Analogy--Think of fiat currency as a metal subject to rapid oxidation. As you earn more, a substantial portion simply rusts away. Taxes take an additional portion. Only physical gold in safe storage stands the test of time.
1999 Prudent Bear Poster--"The NASDAQ will peak on 03/24/00 and then rapidly decline. By then the garbage will have been distributed to the individual IRA's."
New Zealand Youth Hostel Logbook in the 1960's--Life is like a s--- sandwich. The more bread (gold) you have, the less s--- you have to eat.
1950's Texas Congressman Wright Patman--"When one considers the history of the British empire since the 18th century, and the US history since 1913---the inescapable conclusion is : there is nothing the money franchise will not do to protect their interests."
From the movie 'Outlaw Josie Wales'--"It is sad that governments are chiefed by the double-tongues, but it is good when warriors (knights) meet in the struggle of life."
---and share information and ideas...Ten Bears
Boxman
(6/29/02; 09:22:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 79473)
TheJuniorMiner--#79445
Snippet:
<<I'm wondering which one will follow Sunbeam, Enron, WorldCom, Adelphia, Global Crossing.... first.
Seems some patience and a slight change in discussion could help. The stock market is in very deep stuff and we may have only seen the beginning. Not to say thease three "cook books" but they have been loosing lots of "fiat".
Like to see which other biggies you all think could go this way. I'll keep a tally.>>
JuniorMiner, It could be one of the following, but who knows, there could be another company that will explode onto the scene that is not on the radar screen yet. My personal bias is hoping that it will be Merrill.
Xerox Corp.: Xerox said June 28 it would restate five years of results to reclassify more than $6 billion in revenues. In April, the company settled charges that it used "accounting tricks" to defraud investors.
WorldCom Inc.: WorldCom, a telecommunications company, June 25 said it hid $3.85 billion in expenses, allowing it to post net income of $1.38 billion in 2001, instead of a loss. The company fired its chief financial officer, and on Friday began cutting 17,000 jobs, over 20 percent of its work force.
Enron Corp.: Enron, once the nation's largest energy trader, collapsed into the largest-ever U.S. bankruptcy on Dec. 2 amid an investigation surrounding off-the-book partnerships that were allegedly used to hide debt and inflate profits.
Dynegy Inc.: Dynegy, an energy trader that tried to merge with Enron, is the target of several federal probes into alleged sham trades aimed at artificially pumping up revenue and volume. Dynegy's longtime chief executive, Chuck Watson, resigned in May, and it has announced a major restructuring.
Tyco International Ltd.: Tyco, a conglomerate, is under investigation into whether executives used corporate cash to buy art and a home. Tyco's former chairman, Dennis Kozlowski, resigned June 3, a day before he was indicted for evading about $1 million in sales taxes from art purchases.
Merrill Lynch & Co.: Merrill Lynch, the No. 1 U.S. brokerage, in May agreed to pay $100 million to settle a probe by the New York state attorney general into charges it tailored stock research to win investment banking business. In June, it suspended two employees, including Martha Stewart's broker, after an internal probe related to the sale of ImClone shares.
ImClone Systems Inc.: ImClone, a biotechnology company, is under investigation by a congressional committee seeking to find out if it correctly informed investors that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration had declined to accept for review its experimental cancer drug. Samuel Waksal, former chief executive of ImClone, was arrested June 12 on insider trading charges.
Arthur Andersen: Andersen, the accounting firm that audited Enron, was found guilty on June 15 in federal court for obstructing justice in the government's investigation of Enron. The judge has set sentencing for Oct. 11.
Adelphia Communications Corp.: Adelphia, a cable operator, filed for bankruptcy on Tuesday. The company is under investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and two federal grand juries for multibillion dollar, off-balance-sheet loans to its founders, the Rigas family.
Global Crossing Ltd.: Global Crossing, a telecommunications company, faces probes by the SEC and the Federal Bureau of Investigation regarding its accounting practices. Global Crossing allegedly engaged in network capacity swaps with other telecommunications firms to inflate revenue.
Computer Associates International Inc.: Computer Associates agreed to a $638,000 penalty in April to settle charges with the Justice Department that it violated pre-merger rules after announcing it would acquire Platinum Technology Inc.
mikal
(6/29/02; 09:11:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 79472)
@da2g
Thanks for that info. The dealer(s) that your paper sources for its Eagle quote, has likely increased the premium or spread. This is becoming increasing widespread on all categories of gold coins- bullion, numismatic, and semi-numismatic and will soon apply to every dealer in the country, continent, and world essentially. Besides a dwindling supply and increased demand, dealers expect higher gold prices moving forward. This means an upward price adjustment in order to replace their current inventory down the road.
Waverider
(6/29/02; 08:39:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 79471)
Koala
Just checking in to the news here while I'm on the road. I think it was Cavan Man who mentioned a few weeks ago that he has a Powerpoint presentation that he uses to teach kids - maybe that's the one? Cheers!
da2g
(6/29/02; 08:34:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 79470)
Physical price versus Comex
In the business section of today's paper, the COMEX price of gold was noted as down $4.70 over the prior day's close, while the quoted price of the American Eagle was down only $.40. The spread between an ounce of paper versus the Eagle is now twenty dollars. I find this interesting as in the past there was usually a good correlation between the two. Perhaps the price of the Eagle is telling us that this paper plunge is only very temporary. Or could this be an early sign of a paper versus physical disconnect. Maybe this is nothing, but it will certainly bear watching in the days and weeks ahead.
barnaclebob
(6/29/02; 08:31:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 79469)
Economists see 'negative' bubble
http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/178/business/Economists_see_negative_bubbleP.shtml
During the late 1990s, Robert Shiller, an economics professor at Yale University and an expert on market volatility, studied the dynamics of an economic bubble as the tech-fueled boom took the financial markets to unprecedented heights. Now Shiller is seeing some of those same dynamics at work, but heading in the opposite direction.
''It's important to recognize that a bubble can go both ways,'' Shiller said yesterday. ''And what we're seeing now has the nuance of a negative economic bubble.''
There's no lack of evidence to support Shiller's thesis. Yesterday's announcement by WorldCom Inc. that it had improperly booked nearly $4 billion in expenses is only the latest in a long litany of overstated earnings, accounting irregularities, conflicts of interest, and outright fraud that has buffeted the financial markets.
To Shiller, a student of financial booms and busts, the current situation appears eerily familiar.
''It's starting to look like the bubble of the '90s was a lot like the bubble of the 1920s in terms of some of the shenanigans that companies were pulling,'' he said.
Certainly investor reaction to this string of revelations has been clear and unmistakable. Even before the WorldCom announcement, investor optimism was at its second-lowest level in history, according to the Index of Investor Optimism, a joint effort of the UBS AG financial services company and the Gallup Organization.
What's less apparent, for students of the psychology of financial markets, is what role investor confidence will play in the future of the economy, and what, if anything, will stem the slide.
''We're in the middle of what I would call a `bear market depressive syndrome,''' said Dr. John Schott, a clinical instructor in psychiatry at Harvard Medical School and a portfolio manager at Steinberg Global Asset Management, a money management firm based in Boston and Boca Raton, Fla.
''It's not hard to notice many of the classic symptoms of depression playing out in individual investors and the market in general,'' he said.
Specifically, Schott mentions the denial and anxiety that affected investors early in the bear market. ''People were unbelieving at first,'' he said.
More recently, Schott believes that investors have moved to a second stage, ''a great sense of depression, a feeling that the down trend is going to go on and on.
''People used to ask me, `When is it going to end?''' he said. ''Now I'm hearing investors saying, `I think this is going to go on forever.'''
The ''classic'' final stage of the current malaise, according to Schott, is ''a catastrophic sell-off, when a large number of investors throw in their cards and sell their stock.
''The day you see the Dow go down 700 points with 2 billion shares sold, that's when it will be over,'' Schott said.
''That's the final stage: panic and capitulation.''
Schott said the financial markets went through a similar, though less dramatic, sequence from 1974 to 1981.
barnaclebob
(6/29/02; 07:41:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 79468)
What you don't know about the propaganda fear-o-mometer!
http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=28132
The media elite continues to discover new ''weapons of mass destruction" that Islamic terrorists are "believed" to have got their hands on. Don't let them fool you. The only true WMD is a nuke. Nothing else comes close.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Quotes:
It is a grave error to suppose that a dictatorship rules a nation by means of strict, rigid laws which are obeyed and enforced with rigorous, military precision. Such a rule would be evil, but almost bearable; men could endure
the harshest edicts, provided these edicts were known, specific and stable; it is not the known that breaks men's spirits, but the unpredictable.
A dictatorship has to be capricious; it has to rule by means of the unexpected, the incomprehensible, the wantonly irrational; it has to deal not in death, but in sudden death; a state of chronic uncertainty is what men are psychologically unable to bear.
The effort of the ruling body politic to instill fear of the unknown into the Citizenry is surely evidenced by the continuing absurd terrorist alerts from WMD, terrorist scuba divers to the invasion of the killer tomatoes.......
Ask yourself why totalitarian dictatorships find it necessary to pour money and effort into propaganda for their own helpless, chained, gagged slaves, who have no means of protest or defense. The answer is that even the
humblest peasant or the lowest savage would rise in blind rebellion, were he to realize that he is being immolated, not to some incomprehensible "noble purpose," but to plain, naked human evil.
Like the man says: live small, keep your head down, powder dry, store some cash, gold, silver, food, and the black backed book.
barnaclebob
(6/29/02; 06:48:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 79467)
SOMETHING ROTTEN AT APPLE?
http://www.nypost.com/news/nationalnews/18186.htm
June 29, 2002 -- SAN JOSE, Calif. - Twice in the past two years, Apple Computer executives sold company stock for millions just weeks before Apple warned of disappointing earnings. Each warning sent shares tumbling.
While the sales could have an innocent explanation, analysts consider them unusual because there were no other large stock dumps by Apple executives during the same period.
"These sells seem to be well-timed," said Lon Gerber, director of insider research at Thomson Financial, coming as they did on the eve of two of three Apple warnings over a period that began in August 2000.
The computer maker defended the sales, which were questioned in a column last week on a Web site for Mac enthusiasts called Resexcellence.com.
"I can assure you that no executive would have exercised options had they believed we would not meet our original guidance for the quarter," Fred Anderson, Apple's chief financial officer, said in a statement.
misetich
(6/29/02; 06:46:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 79466)
Brazil Hits Economic Turbulence
Snip:
A week ago, Brazil's currency, the real, dropped to an all-time low of 2.84 to the U.S. dollar and the stock market fell partly because of a poll reaffirming Lula's lead.
The plunge was also influenced by a downgrade of Brazil's credit ratings by Moody's Investor Service and Fitch Ratings on June 20. Its risk premium for investors has soared to the second highest in the world after neighboring Argentina, which has defaulted on its $141 billion debt.
Misetich
US banks exposure to Brazil is much, much higher than it was in Argentina....we follow the TRAIL waiting for ANOTHER sign
Got gold?
misetich
(6/29/02; 06:40:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 79465)
Saudis Against Arafat Ouster, Intelligence Boss Says
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/reuters20020629_22.html
Snip:
— DUBAI (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia, Washington's main Gulf Arab ally, opposes replacing Palestinian President Yasser Arafat, the head of Saudi intelligence was quoted as saying in an interview published on Saturday.
Prince Nawaf bin Abdul-Aziz also told the London-based Asharq al-Awsat newspaper that President Bush risked complicating Middle East peace efforts by demanding that Palestinians dump their long-time leader.
"The kingdom is against any intervention in the internal affairs of the Palestinians. We must leave it to them to decide who their president is and not to have any power such as the United States impose one on them," Prince Nawaf said.
Misetich
It doesn't sound like Oil prices are coming down anytime soon - not good news for a "US economic recovery"
Got gold?
Canuck
(6/29/02; 06:17:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 79464)
The O'Neil remarks
Truely bizarre, he sounds like a little brat, "...give us the money or we will resort to crooked accounting..."
Quote from previous:
"O'Neill, who has been the administration's leading spokesman on the corporate accounting scandals that have hit Wall Street, also said government accounting should be held to a higher standard than that in the private sector."
What I don't understand from this statement is why should the government have a higher standard, does that imply that the corporate, being sub-standard is incorrect? Fraudulous?
Why can't both have the 'correct' standard? The accurate one?
(Oh and by the way I phoned my bank yesterday to have my personal debt ceiling raised and I was denied. Unfortunately and with deep regret I must resort to fraudulent accounting practices. I have called a well known accounting firm for this job!)
;)
misetich
(6/29/02; 06:16:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 79463)
Investors losing faith - but haven't thrown in the towel yet - so the bear market continues
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/jun2002/nf20020627_1847.htm
Snip:
"When you sort it all out, they simply lied," says Gary Gensler, former Treasury Under Secretary who consults on matters of public policy and finance. According to a new Gallup Poll conducted June 21 to 23, confidence in Big Business is at its lowest point since 1981
.............
The economic ramifications could include financial institutions clamping down on lending activities, sparking a serious credit crunch. Companies, already reluctant to spend, could continue to balk at writing checks, as they worry about financing. A lot of companies are probably looking at cleaning up their balance sheets, getting liquid, and avoiding the SEC, says Gensler. "That's going to divert a lot of attention," he says. Could these factors be enough to derail the economic recover under way? Gensler believes they could.
Throw in global political turbulence, the specter of another domestic terrorist attack, and the plunging U.S. dollar, and investors have plenty of reason to stay on the sidelines. The "ho-hum" response to the latest scandal could be "a sign of deepening near-term investors disinterest, but also a growing disenchantment of a whole generation of investors toward equities," Standard & Poors' investment committee speculated in a depressing June 26 note.
Misetich
Investors refuse to capitulate, but as the article writer states
Sometimes it's like Chinese water torture," one dribble at a time.
Got gold?
misetich
(6/29/02; 06:04:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 79462)
Looking for signs of " US economic recovery"
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/jun2002/tc20020628_7136.htm
Snip:
PC Expo sure isn't what it used to be, and maybe other high-tech trade shows will never be the same either. CMP Media LLC, which owns the industry's 20-year-old summer gathering in New York, renamed it TechXNY/PC Expo last year in an effort to broaden its appeal to an audience that no longer regarded PCs as hip. It hasn't helped, and the problems appear to go beyond the industry's sluggish sales and shrinking margins.
...............
TechXNY/PC Expo will reemerge in mid-September. But even many vendors who attended this year are wondering, and doing so out loud, whether they'll come back. September, they say, is too late for fall products, too early for spring products, and too close to Comdex, held in Las Vegas each year over the week before Thanksgiving. Well, it was fun while it lasted.
Misetich
No recovery signs spotted on the PC market - corporate spending - which inflated US productivity numbers - isn't likely to be boosted by the PC sector anytime soon
Got gold?
misetich
(6/29/02; 05:54:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 79461)
Telecom Bonds - scooped up by banks and hedge funds
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/jun2002/tc20020628_3955.htm
Snip:
And WorldCom's troubles will ripple far beyond telecoms. Banks and hedge funds have scooped up its bonds, betting that its business is healthy enough to give them a solid return even if its stock continues to fall. But the accounting scandal hammered WorldCom bondholders. On June 26, its bonds plummeted 73%, to trade between 12 cents and 15 cents on the dollar. "Telecom bonds have been in trouble for some time, and it looks like they will continue to be," says Gina Haas, a spokesperson for High Yield Advantage Data.
.................
"TIP OF THE ICEBERG." And there may still be more skeletons in the closet: Sources close to WorldCom say internal auditors are uncovering further troubles. They include double-counting of revenue as far back as 1999, debt that may not have been previously disclosed, and booking of revenues that haven't yet been received from long-term contracts -- issues that could push the ultimate restatement to $5 billion or more. "What we're seeing may be the tip of the iceberg," says Susan Kalla, a telecom analyst at Friedman, Billings & Ramsey.
................
Analysts fear that financing could dry up, lenders may begin calling in loans to other phone companies, and asset prices could plunge as WorldCom joins the long list of companies dumping properties. Scott Cleland, president of the Precursor Group, says 24 of the 29 telecom firms he tracks are already technically at risk of bankruptcy. WorldCom's woes are "creating a suction that pulls others into the abyss."
.............
Now, the allegations of fraud are calling into question WorldCom's earlier performance. Simon Flannery, a telecom analyst at Morgan Stanley, estimates that as a result of the restatement, WorldCom's operating margin is just 16.8% -- a fraction of the 30%-plus margins it boasted as recently as 2000, and the 21% it still claimed prior to the disclosure. Investors now wonder whether WorldCom's outsized profits in the 1990s were nothing more than accounting fiction. WorldCom "was a momentum-growth scam," says Cleland.
Misetich
"was a momentum-growth scam" is not only applicable to Worldcom - but the new economy, new paradigm, investment bankers, brokers, CEO's, US Treasury, Federal Reserve and on and on
Got gold?
Mr Gresham
(6/29/02; 05:04:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 79460)
Gold Standard
You hit it -- I think we'd be amazed how much of economics and finance (and history and philosophy and etc etc) comes down to "who listens to that old fart, anyway?"
Until their paper burns, that is...
Black Blade
(6/29/02; 05:02:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 79459)
Re: Topaz
In every recession the markets have "head fake" or "suckers" rallies. Also, many Gold funds can't spend much cash without affecting the price of Gold shares. Some funds also have a provision that allows them to hold precious metals as well as shares. What if those funds that do not close continue to take in cash? They have to put the cash to work either by buying shares, money market accounts, or physical metal. If the stock markets continue to tumble as they should, then perhaps more investor cash will flood the Gold funds. This could fuel a "Gold Rush" of sorts from the funds into the limited number of shares and the excess cash flows into the physical metal as the few Gold shares become saturated. Just a thought. Cheers!
- Black Blade
Gold Standard
(6/29/02; 04:34:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 79458)
My new Kondratieff Wave theory.....
I've been thinking about the Kondratieff Wave theory, with basic waves of 54 - 60 years, sufficient to have proven speculative blow-offs and severe resultant re/depressions roughly every three generations.
Let's look at the timing in generation terms. I would think that children growing up in the Kondratieff Winter would be most affected, as indeed would their parents. Let's call the parents "Generation 0", and the kids of the Depression "Generation 1".
Now, my theory is that the 54-60 year timespan comes about through 3 generations, i.e. it eventually comes down to "who listens to that old fart, anyway?"
The "Generation 1" is the kids of the Depression.
"Generation 2" is their children, and "Generation 3" is their grandchildren. After "Generation 3", the message is LOST, because no-one listens to their GREAT-Grandparents.
My theory is that the timing between Kondratieff winters has dramatically increased, because of the increased longievity of the 20th century. This explains in part the 72 year increment between the Big One of 1929, and the Nasdaq blow-off.
Support of my theory: People are generally not having kids in their 20's, they are having them in their 30's. The median age of first marriage is increasing every year, as is the median age for having the first child.
If the Elliott wave / Kondratieff principles are correct, then the timing of these waves of human emotion must not be static at 54 - 60 years, but rather must be dependent upon the average duration of the three generations.
If a "generation" stretches out to 25 years, then it's going to be 75 years before the original message is "lost".
Am I talking through my hat, or am I next in line for the Nobel Prize in Economics?
Cheers!
Topaz
(6/29/02; 04:16:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 79457)
Black Blade.
'mornin Squire,
Yes, Grim seems too subtle an adjective these days eh? Scrolling through recent posts really enforces my prognosis of a developing Hyper-Bull situation, The fund sitting on 30% cash - how many similar funds are there out there, kopping it in the neck as the US$ plummets and reaping a pissant 3-4% - seriously negative real growth wot?
Then the contribution from Sir Junior Miner highlighted the extent of deflation evident in those 3 former "darlings".
My contention is that at some point in the near future these "dogs" and almost every other Stock will give a spontaineous BUY signal in comparison to Bond yields and a wholesale rush into the Stockmarkets will occur...a short and sweet burst to the upside (measured in Weeks - and say 30-50% index gains) then B A N G ......it'll all be over.
Thoughts?
Black Blade
(06/29/02; 03:35:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 79456)
Vanguard closes gold fund
http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B6FA116CB%2DEDC6%2D4FD4%2DA6F7%2DE7351E67B0D8%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:
VALLEY FORGE, Pa. (CBS.MW) - The Vanguard Group closed its Precious Metals Fund to all new investments Friday following a flood of inflows during the first half of the year as gold prices surged. The $628 million Precious Metals Fund (VGPMX), which focuses on the booming gold sector, has attracted $124 million in new cash this year. Consolidation within the precious metals industry has also limited the number of gold stocks to invest in, he said. The Vanguard fund currently holds just 28 stocks, and the top 10 holdings account for 74 percent of assets.
Black Blade: In spite of all the recent volatility in the Gold market, here is a vote of confidence. More and more will eventually migrate to Gold itself. Gold shares tend to run ahead of Gold. Now that the end of quarter/half is over and weak hands shaken loose of Gold, we could see Gold more higher again. In the short much depends on the USD, the stock markets, the ME, and terror threats. Should get "interesting".
Black Blade
(06/29/02; 03:21:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 79455)
U.S. accounting model is questioned abroad
http://www.iht.com/articles/62905.html
Snippit:
FRANKFURT As the number of U.S. accounting scandals mounts, executives in Europe are stepping up their challenge to the American system of corporate bookkeeping - generally accepted accounting principles, known as GAAP - that was supposed to be the gold standard of disclosure.
Before Enron Corp., Global Crossing Ltd. and WorldCom Inc., America had been winning the argument on accounting standards. But now, more and more Europeans are saying that the American system is too complex and too easy to manipulate.
"We always thought it was too good to be true in America, and this has proved it," said Angela Knight, chief executive of the Association of Private Client Investment Managers and Stock Brokers in Britain.
Black Blade: The end result is that now foreign investors have lost confidence in US markets. They will flee with their cash and the US dollar will weaken. Some of that cash will find its way to alternative investments, including precious metals.
Black Blade
(06/29/02; 03:08:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 79454)
US stocks end worst 1st half in 30+ years
http://www.reuters.com/news_article.jhtml?type=search&StoryID=1147508
Snippit:
NEW YORK, June 28 (Reuters) - Stocks ended little changed on Friday, wrapping up a volatile quarter and marking the Nasdaq market's worst ever first-half decline, as copier maker Xerox Corp. XRX.N dropped the latest accounting bomb on a market numbed by such scandals.
Black Blade: The fun is just beginning – especially with daily scandals, crashing stock markets, crushing debt, loss of consumer confidence and declining earnings. As always, get outta debt (and stay out of debt), stash enough cash for several months expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Black Blade
(06/29/02; 02:52:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 79453)
A beary, beary good year so far
http://www2.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?siteid=mktw&dist=mktwmore&guid=%7BD1D0FB1B%2D5017%2D4D8D%2DA71A%2D8CF1EB425CBB%7D
Gold, real estate funds highlight excruciating quarter
Snippit:
The case for gold
"I've talked to several managers lately who think that the run up in gold stocks doesn't only reflect investors looking for traditional safe havens, but that there is an issue of supply," suggested Morningstar mutual fund analyst Langdon Healy. "Gold mining companies have done a good job of limiting production and therefore supply and demand factors into play. Central banks aren't unloading gold like they were doing a couple of years ago, Healy added.
Black Blade: The issue of gold supply is a big point missed by Wall Street. A lower gold price has meant companies were not likely to spend the capital (that they did not have anyway) to explore for new deposits. Even so, maybe one project in more than a thousand ever results in a mine and it takes a minimum of maybe 5 years from discovery to until mining even begins. Gold production should begin to drop off after this year as old deposits are mined out and no new reserves are waiting in the wings. It should get rather "interesting" as the real short squeeze will get quite dramatic. A cash settlement will have to be acceptable to counter-parties as there simply will not be enough gold available. The same can be said for silver too. It's going to get "entertaining".
Black Blade
(06/29/02; 02:12:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 79452)
Stocks Worldwide Slump in 1st Half; Investors Lose Trillions
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APRvf3hX_U3RvY2tz
Snippit:
New York, June 28 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks had their biggest first-half loss since the 1970s and led a global decline, reflecting growing mistrust of companies and their executives and concern that a rebound in earnings may slow. U.S. and European companies lost $2.7 trillion of market value this year, more than the worth of all the members of the Nasdaq Composite Index combined. Shares also fell in Japan and much of Latin America, though prices in many Asian and Eastern Europe markets advanced.
``People are disillusioned,'' said Charles White, president of Avatar Associates, which oversees $2 billion. ``People believe they have been getting scammed.'' White said he has 30 percent of assets in cash, almost double his normal level. U.S. stocks lost $1.5 trillion of value, based on the Wilshire 5000 index. General Electric Co. shed $100 billion. Microsoft Corp., Citigroup Inc. and International Business Machines Corp. together lost another $200 billion.
Black Blade: That's $1.7 Trillion (US) on top of over $5 Trillion in market value lost previously. I saw a series of interviews on the street in the US and the UK and the majority of people said they were staying away from the market these days and are not likely to invest anytime soon. This has to be of concern to Wall Street as they send thousands to the growing "Bone Pile". The markets are down for the year so far. If the trend continues we will see three consecutive "down" years – something that has not happened since the Great Depression.
I wonder what the "Scandal Of The Day" will be come Monday. Hmmm...
Gold Standard
(06/29/02; 02:08:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 79451)
@ koala bear
http://www.gata.org/veneroso_presentation.html
Russell, the above link is a precis of the Veneroso PowerPoint presentation.
I have not seen a .pps file available for downloading, but the above page shows most of the presentation.
Cheers!
Gold Standard
(06/29/02; 01:30:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 79450)
@ koala bear
Russell, I don't know of the PowerPoint presentation, unless it was the one presented to the GATA African summit in May last year by Frank Veneroso.
What I do know is that a koala is NOT a bear, rather, it is a marsupial!! :)
Cheers!
koala bear
(06/29/02; 01:24:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 79449)
Looking for the PowerPoint thing
Somebody here recently mentioned a PowerPoint presentation about gold. I was wondering if anyone knows where to find it on the internet.
Russell
RobotGuy
(06/29/02; 01:17:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 79448)
Sorry BB, had to say it,... The damn song's been ringing in my ears for so long!!
Black Blade sing's in the dead of night!!
A.K.A. "Black Bird sing's in the dead of night"
We all love ya brother! Thank-you for all that work!!
RobotGuy!
Cheers!!
Black Blade
(06/29/02; 00:54:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 79447)
Bank intervention pushes gold lower
http://search.ft.com/search/article.html?id=020628008930&query=gold&vsc_appId=totalSearch&state=Form'%20target=
Snippit:
Gold prices dipped on Friday after unexpected central bank intervention in the foreign currency markets. Japan enlisted the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve to help sell yen to prevent the surging Japanese currency from smothering Japan's export-led economic recovery.
Black Blade: Intervention was inevitable as the Yen had strengthened in spite of a $5 billion infusion in the markets on Thursday. Yet the Yen continued to strengthen at one point yesterday morning the dollar bought only 118.4 Yen and threatened to fall much further (especially after George Soros comments). After the markets closed in Tokyo on Friday, the MOF requested help for the ECB and the Federal Reserve to sell Yen (remember a recent offering of Japanese bonds was sold this week to boot). Everything the Japanese have been trying is not working. In spite of all the help from the foreign central banks, the USD remains barely above 106. Japan is desperate as they realize they will be nothing more than a Third World nation soon enough. Japan has no natural resources. They import raw materials, assemble products, and export them abroad. Japan is nothing more than a factory on a couple of Islands. They exist by export. As the US and possibly other nations become more competitive with weaker currencies, the danger for Japan is obvious. However, the US dollar must weaken. The US dollar is very much overvalued and there is nothing that can stop a further weakening. Japan is in serious trouble and they know it. I expect to see increased Japanese buying of gold as a safe haven and this should accelerate toward April 1, 2003 when bank deposit insurance guarantees are removed. The fate of Japan could resemble that of Argentina in a couple of years for all we know. It surely does not look good at this point. In a word – "GRIM".
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