Big Country... Big Gold
Over One-Half Ounce
ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 5/29/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Waverider
(5/29/02; 23:57:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 76953)
Canuck
Greetings from the west coast and thank you for your thoughts. Pullback or rocket...hmmm... Jimbo mentioned earlier the effect of PR by the big trading firms. I don't know all the tricks the cabal have up their sleeve to kick spot back, but I wouldn't be suprised at a pullback / correction as we've had a fairly solid run up the past few weeks. However, is that possible with short covering, not to mention South Asia? I remember Mikal mentioning sometime ago to expect volatility in the POG, and to expect the volatility to get worse. The most important thing has been said here many times over...the long-term fundamentals for Gold are very strong. I woke up this morning to the CBC business commentary - an analyst (didn't catch the name)was stating emphatically that only one thing need be considered in the Gold run - the US dollar (BB also stated today that's the most important factor). He also said that "Gold is becoming a respectable investment again" - now, we Goldbugs have always known it's *the* respectable investment...it's just that the rest of the world is begining to catch on! Bottom line - there are so many variables affecting the POG, that I find it almost impossible to predict or even hunch in what direction it's going short-term. I've had hunches in the past and been dead wrong. My earlier thought today was just an observation...I guess we'll find out soon enough. Cheers!
Waverider
YGM
(5/29/02; 23:45:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 76952)
Puplava..Financial Sense Online....
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/sinclair_schultz.htm
Guest Editorial of Sinclair/Shultz (readable tables)
This article is going to get press and we all know what that means....Thom Colandra Next????
tedw
(5/29/02; 23:38:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 76951)
cONTEST
$$$$327.80$$$$
The spot market is $324.40 as I write this on 5/29/2002
This rally of the last months has been different from previous rallies in that it is marked by steady'slow prices increases. No sudden catastrophic jumps. $327.80 is a reasonable guess and the only spot open in the $327.
BTW, I predict $400 gold by late August.
Golden Bear
(5/29/02; 23:37:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 76950)
DDGU - dollar down, gold up. Get used to it.
www.dailyreckoning.com
DDGU - dollar down, gold up. Get used to it.
But here at the Daily Reckoning, dear reader, we know
that we can't predict the future. The dollar could go
up, for all we know.
Still, we have a modest little insight into the way the
world works. The dollar has been going up, more or less,
against gold for the last 20 years. Even now that gold
and gold shares are outperforming every other investment
sector - most people still can't believe it. The
professionals - the people who really know the gold
business - have huge short positions against gold.
They're betting that this rally fizzles out like every
other one in the last 2 decades.
We suggest you get used to DDGU not because we know what
is going to happen...but because after 20 years, the
other side of the trade, DUGD, is overbought! There
can't be many people waiting to be convinced that gold
is a bad investment, while dollar-based stocks and bonds
are good ones. There are millions, on the other hand,
who might come to believe the opposite.
In other words, we believe the trend of rising dollars
and falling gold prices is not eternal, but cyclical.
The results you get in the future, therefore, are not
likely to be the ones you got in the past; it all
depends on your point of departure. Begin hiking on a
mountain peak and you are almost certain to end at a
lower altitude.
This is in "key contrast to the Reagan years," writes
Paul Krugman in the New York Times, " - the attitude of
foreign investors. During the Reagan recovery, overseas
investors, who had previously been down on America,
flocked in. This time we start from a very different
position. Foreigners have been wildly enthusiastic about
America for years - an attitude we have come to count
on, because we need $1.2 billion in capital inflows
every day to cover our foreign-trade deficit. What
happens as they lose their enthusiasm?"
"One of the largely unreported stories of the last few
months..." he continues, "is the precipitous decline of
foreign confidence in American leadership and
institutions...Foreign purchases of US stocks, foreign
acquisitions of US companies, are way off."
"One thing is clear," he concludes. "Those confident
declarations, several months ago, that our troubles were
over look pretty foolish now."
Golden Bear
(5/29/02; 23:30:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 76949)
Pizz (msg#: 76947)
Now you're reminding me of the swiss cheese that I get paid to patch on a daily basis - I didn't know Microsoft was in the Financing business...
Black Blade
(5/29/02; 23:22:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 76948)
Thousands of workers blockade roads across Argentina to protest government failure to end recession
http://www.boston.com/dailynews/149/world/Thousands_of_workers_blockade_:.shtml
Snippit:
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) Thousands of jobless workers pounding drums blockaded highways across Argentina on Wednesday to protest the government's failure to pull the nation out of economic crisis. Black smoke rose from burning tires in one Buenos Aires district as leftist labor leaders raised anti-government banners and called for the government to do something about the 20 percent unemployment rate.
One of every five Argentines is jobless, the country has declared default on its massive $141 billion public debt and the central bank has been powerless to stop a massive drop in the peso's value against the U.S. dollar. The economy is expected to contract by more than 10 percent this year. In an effort to calm militant labor organizations, Duhalde extended a ban Wednesday on company layoffs for another six months. Duhalde warned this week that ''time is running out'' to solve the crisis and urged Argentines to rally behind economic recovery plans. Inflation rose 21 percent in the first four months of 2002, eroding the purchasing power of salaries, said Eduardo Ovalle, an analyst with the Argentine think tank Nueva Mayoria.
Black Blade: "Recession" – coming to a city near you.
Pizz
(5/29/02; 23:19:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 76947)
Golden Bear
If your product had the reputation of having to be fixed or repaired daily, would you invest in it?
Golden Bear
(5/29/02; 23:18:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 76946)
The Biggest Enrons of them all... JPM and CitiBank
http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/020501/markets_corporatebonds_disasters_5.html
No further explanations needed!
Interesting link above on Corporate Bonds...
"...WorldCom bond blowup hurts investors, maybe others
By Jonathan Stempel
NEW YORK, May 1 (Reuters) - Investors in high quality corporate bonds aren't used to losing huge sums of money.
WorldCom Inc. has become the latest and largest company to upset that sense of sobriety. There may be more.
ADVERTISEMENT
"The idea that every name is potentially vulnerable has gotten into investors' thinking," said Bill Lissenden, national fixed income markets strategist at Conseco Capital Management Inc. in Carmel, Indiana. "The WorldCom situation is leading investors to question whether in the short run, fundamental analysis will get overpowered by market psychology."
That's a shift in the investment-grade bond market, where alarmist shouts of "default" and "liquidity," or the lack of, are growing louder. Bondholders of two other big issuers, Qwest Communications International Inc. and Tyco International Ltd., have also been seared, and not even "triple-A" rated behemoth General Electric Co.(NYSE:GE - news) has been spared investor wrath.
What's wrong? Investors -- even ones who maintain diversified portfolios -- are growing fearful because they've recently been hurt often and badly amid concerns, rational and not, over access to cash, accounting, profits and the economy.
In the last year, such companies as energy trader Enron Corp.(Other OTC:ENRNQ.PK - news; NYSE:ENE - news), retailer Kmart Corp.(NYSE:KM - news) and telecom equipment provider Lucent Technologies Inc.(NYSE:LU - news) saw their debt plummet from roughly face value to "distressed" levels, often in just weeks, and often before their credit ratings fell to "junk" status from investment-grade.
"High-grade investors -- and analysts, I'm the first to admit -- are simply not used to thinking about bonds on a default and recovery basis," said Carol Levenson, director of research at Gimme Credit, fixed-income research service.
DEBT, AND MORE DEBT
Now they are. That's reflected in investor returns. Through the end of April, investment-grade corporate bonds have returned just 0.68 percent, including interest, for 2002, Merrill Lynch & Co. said. It's the year's worst-performing U.S. bond sector..."
Pizz
(5/29/02; 23:15:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 76945)
Golden Bear
Remember a few months back when TYCO drew down on something like 10 or 12 billion in short term credit lines? it was right after Enron Imploaded. Jig saw puzzle picture not looking to rosey.
I'm sitting here posting with CNBC on. India/Pakistan is really getting some news. If the news is being sugar coated in any way, it's really getting tense.
Gold and silver shorts have to be having a worse week than me.
Pizz
Golden Bear
(5/29/02; 23:05:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 76944)
Pizz (msg#: 76942) Not GE...
Hey Pizz, now I'm curious... another overleveraged "Enron" in the Dow?
Off to do some research...
Golden Bear
(5/29/02; 23:02:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 76943)
GE - this from 21 March, and now getting worse...
http://csf.colorado.edu/forums/pkt/2002I/msg00515.html
"...Today, PIM (Pacific Investment Management), the world's largest bond fund, having dumped $1 billion in GE commercial paper, publicly criticised GE for carrying too much debt and not dealing honestly with investors. GE announced it might sell as much as $50 billion in bonds only days after investors bought $11 million of new bond in the biggest US sale in history. PIM director Bill Gross said that disputes GE's contention that the new boond sales were designed to capture low rates, but because of troubles in its commercial paper market. If GE shortterm rate rises because of poor credit rating, the engine that drives GE earnings would stall out. Gross dismissed GE eraning growth as being from brilliant management, Jack Welch books not withstanding, but from financial manipulation, seeling debt at cheap rate and using stock for acquisition.
The cat is now out of the bag. GE is a big sell issue in the market today...."
Pizz
(5/29/02; 22:58:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 76942)
Golden Bear
Not GE, but it probably could be.
Pizz
(5/29/02; 22:57:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 76941)
Mr G
Couldn't get that lucky, a few hours of pieceful oblivion before two scape-goat, er.... board meetings tomorrow.
Nice thing about not being too overweight - lot less of a certain part of one's anatomy to be chewed on.
You, of any here know what I'm going thru.
Undercapitalized and losing money, and guess who's fault it will be because we got caught floating? When I both screw up AND get caught at the same time it's a problem. My only saving grace tomorrow will be that I know they can't find anyone stupid and masochistic enough to take my job.
Just because I'm a turnaround specialist doesn't mean I can print money . . . . .
Pizz
Golden Bear
(5/29/02; 22:51:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 76940)
Pizz (msg#: 76938)
Assuming you are referring to GE, that's why they issued an $11 billion bond sale. Funds are desperately short and they want to roll the problem into the future...
The falling share price will have put them into negative equity position which will have to be disclosed sooner rather than later with the more scrutinized company reports, and it's less traumatic to have large bond liabilities, than an immediate goodwill writedown. However these bonds will be eventually downgraded towards junk as the harsh economic conditions continue...
Thanks for the insider info...
Mr Gresham
(5/29/02; 22:40:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 76939)
Pizz
Watch the wine & hot tub combo! Found out that one the hard way (well, I just kind of woke up on the tiles, with a small head bump...)
Pizz
(5/29/02; 22:30:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 76938)
Not a Good Day
A few comments from the real life trenches.
For any readers out there who have any doubt about the direction of the economy or wether or not we are going to have a double dip recession, I'll give you a hint. The economy is going DOWN, and you can picture the second dip just like a two scoop ice cream cone with the second scoop being dropped on the floor.
Today our finance company pulled a surprise audit. This is a finance arm of a Dow company. I have never seen an audit this thorough in my 30 year career. We were stripped of every nickel these guys could pull out, quoting fine print in our finance agreements that I had to go back and reread because they have never been enforced before.
My conclusion is one of two. This Dow company either has a cash flow problem at the end of this month that is so bad as to knock down their credit rating (very probable), or two, there is something coming down that the "big boys" have been made aware of that has the major corporations scrambling in a real big hurry (less likely and a bit conspiratorial, but probable.)
If I wasn't a gold bug, I'd be researching a pure play in antacids and short term alcohol. Being in upper management for a leveraged enterprise at this time is extremely detrimental to ones health.
Just one man's opinion but THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL IS A FREIGHT TRAIN - AND IT'S ACCELERATING.
Off to the hot tub and a full bottle of nerve medicine (one nice thing about being Sicilian - I like cheap red wine!!!)
Money (in any form) get you some more - it's gettin scarce.
Pizz
goldquest
(5/29/02; 22:21:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 76937)
Whoops
http://www.rense.com/general25/works.htm
Hope this one works.
goldquest
(5/29/02; 22:18:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 76936)
Danger For The Dollar
http:www.rense.com/general25/works.htm
As Black Blade would say: GRIM!
Golden Bear
(5/29/02; 22:13:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 76935)
Nomad (msg#: 76925)
Sorry to spoil your plans for the future, but do you think that what happened in 1999, won't happen again? Your request for an orderly rise in POG is just wishful thinking... prepare for any eventuality so that the surprise will be a pleasant one to you and your family. The earlier post by YGM from Harry Schultz should leave you in no doubts about what is coming....
Cheers.
auenboy
(5/29/02; 22:04:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 76934)
Gold Price Contest
$$$$ 331.30$$$$
It is where the Dart Landed. Good Luck Everyone
Gandalf the White
(5/29/02; 21:43:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 76933)
ONLY a little more than 26 hours remain for CONTEST entries !
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html
The COMEX GOLD JUNE '02 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST
Hear Ye. . . .Hear Ye. . . . A Call to Contest. . .
Under the auspices of Sir MK, our USAGOLD Forum host, Centennial Precious Metals, Inc., is requesting a test of your thinking, predicting and posting skills to occur until midnight (MDT Denver, CO time) on Thursday, May 30th to Guess the SETTLEMENT Price of the June COMEX GOLD Contract on Friday, May 31, 2002. Prizes are one Swiss 20 Franc Helvetia (0.1867 ounces of GOLD) to the WINNER, and a one ounce Silver Maple Leaf to EACH of the Runners-up.
This is also an "Invitation" to all UNREGISTERED LURKERS to submit your request to be able to "POST" by following the instructions at the ABOVE LINK, and THEN be able to enter the CONTEST!!!
---
THE RULES
1) The winner is the closest to the Settlement price of the most active
JUNE GOLD Contract (GC2M) on the date of Friday the 31st of May, 2002.
2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths ! (Such as 543.2)
3) "Guesses" shall be enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs"
so as to be OFFICIAL ! Such as $$$$ 543.2 $$$$
4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady and once that "Guess"
has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !!
FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".
5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock
in Denver strikes 12 Midnight on Thursday, MAY 30th.
6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY -- A short "WHY" discussion
paragraph MUST accompany each "Guess".
===
FWIW -- The June COMEX Contract "Settled" in NY today (Wednesday) at the price of $325.5 <============
16 th UPDATE on POG Guessing Contest ! <;-)
ENTRIES in Contest (sorted by Price) !!
====
$$$$ 8,752.0 $$$$ The Invisible Hand (05/24/02; 05:39:59MT msg#: 76471
$$$$ 440.2 $$$$ goldquest (05/22/02; 14:17:02MT msg#: 76261
$$$$ 365.2 $$$$ Husky (5/29/02; 13:19:04MT msg#: 76876
$$$$ 360.0 $$$$ GoldnSilver2002 (05/24/02; 12:29:56MT msg#: 76497
$$$$ 355.9 $$$$ darkhorse (05/22/02; 21:25:11MT msg#: 76317
$$$$ 354.0 $$$$ Henri (05/24/02; 09:18:51MT msg#: 76490
$$$$ 352.5 $$$$ White Hills (05/22/02; 19:23:20MT msg#: 76300
$$$$ 350.0 $$$$ ROSEBUD99 (5/28/02; 10:32:46MT msg#: 76775
$$$$ 349.2 $$$$ Pizz (5/28/02; 10:07:10MT msg#: 76771
$$$$ 348.0 $$$$ White Rose (05/25/02; 22:03:47MT msg#: 76569
$$$$ 343.0 $$$$ ji (5/25/02; 06:23:45MT msg#: 76533
$$$$ 342.0 $$$$ neer-do-well (05/24/02; 08:20:19MT msg#: 76484
$$$$ 339.0 $$$$ rsjacksr (05/22/02; 16:32:28MT msg#: 76278
$$$$ 338.9 $$$$ Siochain (5/28/02; 09:41:22MT msg#: 76766
$$$$ 338.2 $$$$ silvester (5/29/02; 20:57:16MT msg#: 76920
$$$$ 337.5 $$$$ wiley (05/23/02; 10:49:37MT msg#: 76386
$$$$ 336.6 $$$$ zorro (5/23/02; 16:42:43MT msg#: 76420
$$$$ 336.0 $$$$ Creosote (05/22/02; 19:38:52MT msg#: 76303
$$$$ 335.6 $$$$ Kodie (05/26/02; 09:59:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 76588
$$$$ 335.1 $$$$ Gold Standard (5/27/02; 05:32:52MT msg#: 76663
$$$$ 334.7 $$$$ RobotGuy (5/28/02; 10:38:00MT msg#: 76777
$$$$ 334.4 $$$$ BILLYG (5/29/02; 01:36:25MT msg#: 76832
$$$$ 334.3 $$$$ Believer (05/22/02; 16:19:37MT msg#: 76277
$$$$ 333.3 $$$$ Tevye (05/22/02; 13:58:29MT msg#: 76258
$$$$ 332.8 $$$$ AUthentic (5/29/02; 14:59:17MT msg#: 76886)
$$$$ 332.2 $$$$ Goldfinger 2 (5/28/02; 11:20:26MT msg#: 76779
$$$$ 331.5 $$$$ Camel (5/29/02; 08:40:15MT msg#: 76861
$$$$ 331.0 $$$$ DOWNUNDER (05/24/02; 22:40:53MT msg#: 76522
$$$$ 330.3 $$$$ Brahms (5/28/02; 00:16:44MT msg#: 76734
$$$$ 330.2 $$$$ Christian (5/27/02; 07:40:31MT msg#: 76666
$$$$ 329.8 $$$$ Tate (5/28/02; 13:15:44MT msg#: 76790
$$$$ 329.7 $$$$ goldroadlx7 (5/28/02; 15:57:31MT msg#: 76802
$$$$ 329.4 $$$$ Clint H (5/23/02; 19:18:44MT msg#: 76436
$$$$ 328.4 $$$$ Slowman (05/24/02; 07:37:27MT msg#: 76479
$$$$ 328.0 $$$$ Nomad (5/29/02; 21:26:48MT msg#: 76925
$$$$ 327.9 $$$$ Goldilocks 1 (5/29/02; 19:51:51MT msg#: 76913
$$$$ 327.7 $$$$ goldenpeace (5/28/02; 03:52:15MT msg#: 76749
$$$$ 327.6 $$$$ timbervision (05/23/02; 09:17:25MT msg#: 76369
$$$$ 327.5 $$$$ koala bear (5/29/02; 13:03:51MT msg#: 76874
$$$$ 327.2 $$$$ vermillion (5/23/02; 19:19:38MT msg#: 76437
$$$$ 327.0 $$$$ Solomon Weaver (05/25/02; 21:59:46MT msg#: 76568
$$$$ 326.9 $$$$ Achilles (05/24/02; 04:29:15MT msg#: 76466
$$$$ 326.8 $$$$ Hipplebeck (05/23/02; 06:07:51MT msg#: 76357
$$$$ 326.6 $$$$ slingshot (05/24/02; 19:24:09MT msg#: 76519
$$$$ 326.4 $$$$ Kevin$ (5/29/02; 21:34:57MT msg#: 76929
$$$$ 326.0 $$$$ Broken Tee (5/23/02; 15:38:46MT msg#: 76416
$$$$ 325.7 $$$$ OZ (05/26/02; 23:20:25MT msg#: 76635
$$$$ 325.5 $$$$ steady (05/24/02; 15:26:22MT msg#: 76503
$$$$ 325.4 $$$$ Renny (5/28/02; 18:39:54MT msg#: 76809
$$$$ 325.3 $$$$ Frosty (5/28/02; 17:48:48MT msg#: 76806
$$$$ 325.1 $$$$ Au-some (5/29/02; 19:43:11MT msg#: 76912
$$$$ 325.0 $$$$ Around The Corner (5/23/02; 02:17:38MT msg#: 76350
$$$$ 324.9 $$$$ THX-1138 (05/22/02; 16:45:28MT msg#: 76279
$$$$ 324.8 $$$$ Yellow Metal (05/22/02; 16:51:55MT msg#: 76280
$$$$ 324.6 $$$$ Graefin (05/22/02; 13:33:35MT msg#: 76257
$$$$ 324.2 $$$$ Rock (05/22/02; 13:06:37MT msg#: 76254
$$$$ 323.7 $$$$ Trurl (5/29/02; 21:07:00MT msg#: 76922
$$$$ 323.6 $$$$ VanRip (05/22/02; 21:58:11MT msg#: 76323
$$$$ 322.6 $$$$ misetich (5/23/02; 03:05:56MT msg#: 76351
$$$$ 321.5 $$$$ RobertG (5/23/02; 19:23:59MT msg#: 76438
$$$$ 320.4 $$$$ Jimbo (05/22/02; 14:31:21MT msg#: 76264
$$$$ 320.2 $$$$ 18K (5/23/02; 03:47:11MT msg#: 76353
$$$$ 319.9 $$$$ Trapper (05/22/02; 17:52:38MT msg#: 76284
$$$$ 319.5 $$$$ YGM (05/22/02; 13:29:47MT msg#: 76256
$$$$ 319.0 $$$$ Houston (5/25/02; 12:57:47MT msg#: 76551
$$$$ 318.9 $$$$ Jon (5/29/02; 15:05:27MT msg#: 76888
$$$$ 318.5 $$$$ EagleOne (05/22/02; 21:26:49MT msg#: 76318
$$$$ 318.2 $$$$ onlychild (05/22/02; 15:10:37MT msg#: 76269
$$$$ 317.5 $$$$ balzac (05/23/02; 07:33:25MT msg#: 76363
$$$$ 317.2 $$$$ Tommy P (05/23/02; 07:00:52MT msg#: 76361
$$$$ 317.0 $$$$ nickel62 (05/26/02; 09:20:46MT msg#: 76585
$$$$ 316.5 $$$$ cwa (05/24/02; 08:04:10MT msg#: 76481
$$$$ 316.0 $$$$ luckypierre (05/25/02; 15:52:53MT msg#: 76555
$$$$ 315.8 $$$$ Brett Woods (05/27/02; 21:19:19MT msg#: 76720
$$$$ 315.7 $$$$ law (05/27/02; 23:56:54MT msg#: 76732
$$$$ 315.4 $$$$ ausome (05/22/02; 18:51:28MT msg#: 76296
$$$$ 314.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (05/22/02; 17:51:17MT msg#: 76283
$$$$ 314.5 $$$$ Pippin (05/23/02; 07:14:36MT msg#: 76362
$$$$ 313.5 $$$$ Topaz (5/25/02; 08:44:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 76541
$$$$ 312.5 $$$$ AUtistic (05/22/02; 17:50:02MT msg#: 76282
$$$$ 308.6 $$$$ kludge (05/23/02; 08:11:29MT msg#: 76365
$$$$ 298.5 $$$$ Mexican (05/27/02; 15:33:32MT msg#: 76690
===
goldquest
(5/29/02; 21:42:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 76932)
@YGM
Correction. #76927. Sorry
Black Blade
(5/29/02; 21:40:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 76931)
Where's the Boom?
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/05/28/opinion/28KRUG.html?ex=1023607966&ei=1&en=0f5dc6f5287db1c3
Snippit:
Summertime, and the living is iffy. Double-dippers — economists who believe that the economy will turn down again — are still a small minority. But we're no longer hearing the triumphalist predictions of roaring recovery that were so prevalent back in March.
The funny thing is that there hasn't been much negative economic news, just an absence of the good news that we were told to expect. Above all, business investment, whose plunge led us into this slump, has yet to show any serious signs of life. How did so many business economists convince themselves, and each other, that a great boom was imminent? No doubt it was the result of wishful thinking on several levels.
Black Blade: Of course there have been scandals galore, SEC investigations, declining corporate profits, crushing debt at record levels, exploding growth of the "Bone Pile", foreign dollars fleeing the US, etc. These guys really need to ask such a question?
goldquest
(5/29/02; 21:39:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 76930)
@YGM Ref:#76928
Turn Out The Lights! (no link)
Their party is over, someone has to pick up the tab!
Kevin$
(5/29/02; 21:34:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 76929)
POG Contest
My guess:
$$$$326.4$$$$
Thank You
canamami
(5/29/02; 21:31:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 76928)
Gandalf, rephrased question re deadline
Does the deadline hit in roughly two and one-half hours, or twenty-six and one-half hours? Thx.
YGM
(5/29/02; 21:30:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 76927)
Mind Boggling Numbers.....
Sinclair/Shultz Article....
#1....
Total Ounces sold Short BY Producers 94,832,857 oz = $30,346,514,240 @ $320 AU
Total Nominal Value of derivatives on the books of the Commercial Banks of the reporting 48 nations of the IMF survey.
900,000,000 oz. or $278,000,000,000 @ $320 gold = USD$288,000,000,000
#2....
Gold Producers are ONLY 11% of the TOTAL World Gold Derivative ounces and value.
#3....
The Central Banks line up to sell their gold, with the exception of those under the Washington Agreement. All they can offer is: 561,065,075 ounces worth @ gold price
$354: $201,422,361. But the derivative short position is
900,000,000 oz with a value @ $354 of $ 318,600,000,000.00
**That means the situation now is that the derivative gold short position is equal to all the gold held by all the central banks outside of the Washington Agreement.**
U now know why the Washington agreement came into place in order to prevent just what is happening. Those Central Banks, seeing the figures, hoped to slow down the gold derivative trade by freezing their participation in it. Now U know why traditional gold dealers are leaving the gold mkt & expunging these instruments from their books.
#4....
If all Central Banks in the world sold all the gold they held in a derivative melt-down they would make the following offer: All Central Banks = 890,579,485 ounces of gold held to a Short Derivative Position forced to cover of 900,000,000 oz.
**The Gold Cartel is in more trouble than most anyone can imagine......Oh Happy Days!.....YGM.
Black Blade
(5/29/02; 21:29:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 76926)
Forget the explanations, just ride the gold wave.
http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/investing/story.html?f=/stories/20020529/376529.html
Snippit:
Pundits seek reasons as bullion price hits 31-month high. Gold broke through another price barrier yesterday, closing at its highest price in 31 months, and while pundits are busy trying to explain why, traders are simply riding the wave.
Black Blade: Just wait until the "momentum investor" climbs on board. Interesting article, though I have to point out to Lennie Kaplan that there are several fundamental reasons for the rising POG. The overriding issue now is the weakening US Dollar and since Gold is an alternative currency that should be reason enough by itself. However, other investments are also faltering and that leaves Gold as a hard asset of choice in an uncertain investment environment. It is actually a matter of safe haven investing or wealth preservation from an insurance perspective.
Nomad
(5/29/02; 21:26:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 76925)
Guess + October 1999
$$$ 328.00 $$$
Why ? Because numbers ending in eight have been velly velly good to me :)
I think I have one of the saddest October 99 stories ...
Starting about a year before hand, I had bought a bunch of gold options ... a lot of the ones I bought were at only
$ 30 each ($.30) At first I lost but just bought more replacements later in the spring of 99 and then finally in August. In the end, I had about $ 10,000 of options when the WA announcement popped. For about three days my account read $600,000 + :).
On the morning of Oct, 5 I was visiting my father and we went out in the woods to do some shooting ... took about an hour and in that time my account had popped up to just under 1 Million and then back down again ... that one hour walk cost me about $300,000 + :(
Well you can guess the rest ... Once it started tanking I had big trouble pulling the trigger. I did eventually make a profit, but nowhere near what I should have.
Some things I remember :
1) the exchanges changed ALL the rules at that time ...
a) no LIMIT orders, only market orders were allowed
b) a lot of times NO ORDERS went thru because volume was 10 times normal
c) you can imagine what some of the fills were on those 'market' orders ... can you say 'I was robbed !'
d) the margin limits were MORE than doubled overnight.
So in my mind, this time around I want to see a nice slow increase in the price of gold over a long period of time with lots of pullbacks to get in at lower prices.
Not interested in screwing up again, thank you very much :)
Nomad
Gandalf the White
(5/29/02; 21:26:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 76924)
Sir Canamami's QUESTION !
canamami (5/29/02; 20:57:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 76921)
When is midnight re contest?
Is midnight tonight, or midnight tomorrow night the deadline for the contest? Thx.
====
NOT tonight -- Thursday at the strike of Midnight in Denver.
Friday in Denver is TOOOOOO LATE !
The countdown is going to start sooner than you think.
<;-)
Black Blade
(5/29/02; 21:12:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 76923)
Wednesday's Stock Market WrapUp
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
News Blackout?
Snippit:
For Wall Street, these are tough times. Money isn't flowing into the markets the way it used to during the mania days of the late 90's. Wall Street's most profitable business, new IPOs, are dramatically down. Trading profits along with commissions are way down. Layoffs are now the headlines on the Street. To make matters worse, the big movements in the markets have been in natural resources, especially gold and silver. You would hardly know that if you live inside the U.S. There seems to be a news blackout on gold. If the financial media covers the story, it is only to disparage the metals or to discourage investors from buying or investing in precious metals. Most of their recommendations are to sell. They never recommend the sector despite the fact that major gold and silver mining indexes have been the number one performing sector during the last two years running. As I have mentioned so many times in these WrapUps, the HUI Index is up 123% this year alone and up 119% over the last 52 weeks. Compare that to the Nasdaq, which is down 16.4% year-to-date and is down 25% over the last 52 weeks.
What is at stake here is a conflict of interest on behalf of Wall Street. Wall Street doesn't want you to buy gold, silver, oil, or natural gas because it signifies a major shift in markets. The Street isn't prepared for this. Wall Street is in the business of selling paper assets such as stocks and bonds. When gold and silver prices rise in the way they have over the last two years, it signifies a loss of confidence in paper. This is bad news for Wall Street and bad news for the government. To Wall Street and government, rising gold and silver prices reflect a loss of confidence in the financial system and in government itself. It also inhibits the Fed's ability to inflate the currency. The standard prescription in any financial or economic crisis is for the Fed to flood the financial system with money and credit, and in the process depreciate the currency. The real danger of rising gold prices is that demand for credit falls off with the demand for paper.
And this snippit for the Silver crowd:
New supplies and mines of gold and silver coming on line are getting scarce. In the case of silver, the supply line is getting shorter as above-ground stockpiles are dramatically drawn down. Delivery is taking much longer and grows longer by the day. Just try and walk in your local coin shop and buy $10-20 thousand in silver and wait to see how long delivery takes. A major fund buyer of silver reports it is now taking over eight weeks to get delivery. The dangerous short position now existing on the COMEX is going to lead to an explosive run-up in the price of silver. The silver shorts are cornered and there is virtually no way out. There isn't enough supply available in the COMEX, nor do I believe Buffett would sell off his stock pile to bail out these imbeciles. Wall Street may try to talk gold and silver down, and the media may ignore the rise in metals, but they do so at their own peril and credibility.
Black Blade: Puplava has another excellent article that focuses on the Gold and Silver markets. He does hit on some very interesting points here. There is a sort of "media blackout" on natural resource investment. Wall Street is ignoring the move in PMs for good reason. Note that those who are "panning" (no pun intended) are those who are rumored to be extremely short the metal (i.e. Goldman Sachs). These guys are caught in a bind and are struggling. They make their bread and butter looting the pockets of devastated investors.
What Wall Street Wall Street has also ignored the declining oil inventory and potential natural gas shortage late this year that could easily lead to an energy crisis (part II). Actually tomorrow night I may not be here at the forum, as I will be meeting with several petroleum people in Gillette, WY.
Note the Gold chart at the top of Puplava's page.
Trurl
(5/29/02; 21:07:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 76922)
POG Contest
My guess is $$$$ 323.7 $$$$
This is indeed a guess. When I buy gold, I ask myself, do you have enough $ to avoid paying sales tax? Within reason, I'm not really concerned about the POG. Like they say about buying stocks; its really more important what you buy, then the specific price you pay, IFF you are willing to hold for years. I have many decades before I retire.
canamami
(5/29/02; 20:57:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 76921)
When is midnight re contest?
Is midnight tonight, or midnight tomorrow night the deadline for the contest? Thx.
silvester
(5/29/02; 20:57:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 76920)
Price Guess
$$$$338.20$$$$
They may be having a little more trouble with the price than we think. So long with hardly any life in it, this volatility has to be painful. I say it goes higher, quicker.
Black Blade
(5/29/02; 20:41:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 76919)
Gold bulls see further dollar decline
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BC097152D%2D0D58%2D4F7F%2D8221%2DB6ACF4ACC3A8%7D&siteid=mktw
Snippit:
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Gold and silver backers see an accelerating decline in the dollar contributing to further strong gains for their metals. "It is my view that the demand for dollars will decline. As this demand continues to decline, the flight from the dollar will accelerate, regardless whether or not the Federal Reserve reduces the supply of dollars," says James Turk, editor of Free Market Gold & Money Report in New Hampshire and founder of electronic payment system GoldMoney. Turk says gold's price will sustain a $325-an-ounce or greater level by the end of June, thus confirming a long and strong rally in the metal.
Gold's most ardent believers see a fiscal crisis, rather than a war or other militant attacks, fueling the gold rally. The crisis, say economists, including Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach, will be marked by a steady retreat from the dollar and dollar-based assets as the red ink in America's current account approaches 5 percent of gross domestic product. The current account amounts to the trade deficit (exports minus imports) plus or minus short-term capital flows such as royalties, dividends and tourism.
"The U.S. current account needs $400 billion a year recycled back into U.S. investments, stocks/bonds, whole companies (Chrysler), and Miami condos or Midwest land," says John Doody, editor of the newsletter Gold Stock Analyst. "U.S. citizens have to stop importing so much. It's easy to stop buying French wine, but oil we can't." Doody forecasts a three-year market of higher prices for gold, much like 1985 through 1987, when a burdensome current account deficit eventually led to a 40 percent drop in the dollar against the yen and deutsche mark. During that span, gold's price almost doubled to $500 an ounce from $284.
Black Blade: This is a good article from Thom Calandra. It is just as I have been saying in recent weeks. The USD is the key and now that we are down to a USD index of 111 from 122 in just weeks, the trend is solidly lower. The US economy depends on a weaker US Dollar at this point as Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley points out. The Japanese government has intervened to prop up the Yen, however, they have failed as the USD has retreated on European investors (and even Asian investors) bailing out of the US markets. Add into the equation the threat of war in Central Asia and terrorist threats galore, and the pressure on safe haven Gold is ever greater.
"Gold – It's not just for jewelry anymore!"
sector
(5/29/02; 20:30:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 76918)
The Perfect Contrary Indicator
SJ Kaplan
Read the Fed. They are making panic decisions. Killing the 30 year bond. Rigging the Fed Funds discount window. Juggling the CPI and a host of other BLS numbers. A "restatement' of previously released values each month in order to deliver the impression of "Recovery" when "Depression" is the looming reality.
Gold shares are rising, rocket-like and have crossed a critical threshold of public visibility. Therefore the hired suits of the cabal, Cramer, JPM, Goldman Sachs, et al. and especially SJ Kaplan have been employed to stop the HUI rocket at all costs. It is all too transparent...all too ludicrous. These intellectual prostitutes say what they are paid to say...like Gary Condit's publicist.
Bull markets in ANY financial instrument do not start by floating from their bottoms and then flattening out after a 25% rise. Investing and economics 101.
No…this string of anti-gold, talking hand puppets is about an underlying desperation...a strategy of FED hope. Hope that they will get gold from somewhere to smash pog back down below $300.
If they HAD the metal... pog would already BE THERE.
.
.
.
OK…so there's a pull back initiated by gold investing institutions taking profits and setting up an upward moving cycle with HUI about where it is now serving as the bottom channel marker.
So buy the dips. Pog is moving as the learning-challenged hedgers wake up.
They must buy 10s of millions of ounces to close out positions...fast.
Black Blade
(5/29/02; 20:17:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 76917)
Pondering the Earnings Trajectory
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20020529-wed.html#anchor0
Snippit:
The collective judgement of our macro team at Morgan Stanley is that this quarter is probably "make or break" time on the corporate earnings front. We concur that the profits cycle appears to have hit its low point. We continue to debate, however, what the earnings trajectory will look like on the other side of this cyclical bottoming. There is little dispute that the outcome of this debate will hold the key to the stock market and have profound implications for other asset markets, as well.
Black Blade: Much depends on how quickly the US Dollar can be weakened to secure a larger piece of a shrinking global economic pie and how to secure an abundant source of cheap energy. However, the problems of declining consumer confidence, crushing consumer and corporate debt, and pathetic earnings will likely plague the US economy for years. Definitely consider getting out of debt, stash enough cash for several months expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
BTW, the Paki-Indian conflict looks worse tonight (if that were possible). All leave has been cancelled for Indian troops and there is a "general call up" for troops to mobilize along the Kashmir front. General-President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan visited troops at the border and gave a speech that Pakistan will not back down and during this speech he mentioned Islamic Jihad three times. It appears that war may be inevitable now.
YGM
(5/29/02; 20:09:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 76916)
REPOSTED BY PERMISSION OF BILL MURPHY & AUTHORS.
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com
The Little Bear Table
Our Faithful Mascot
Topic du Jour
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLD MINES EXPOSED
(as gold bull market enters overdrive)
By James E. Sinclair & Harry D. Schultz
--WHY gold will go parabolic --HOW good gold news will be fatally
bad news for many (most?) mines--as the price rises. --"Hedges" is
wrong word. They aren't hedges! A pity.
To clarify our position on hedging, we believe it's the right on any
commodity producing company to set a price for their product in the
future so as to be able to accurately project/ budget future expenses
against a known revenue. Our concern is not hedging. Our concern is the
vehicles that are being used to hedge. And also the use of these
instruments to bring on new production in a "negative market" for the
commodity gold, which would otherwise have reversed its price
negativity, ie, a market price below total cost, then around $350. We
experienced a 22 year bear market in gold prolonged artificially by the
constant financially unnatural increase in production, not justified by
natural market forces.
It's a miracle the gold producers did not kill their own golden goose
stone dead beyond revival. Now the gold producer's foolishness threatens
gold's monetary application by artificially forcing gold too high in price,
too early, before the fundamental equation is wholly behind it. Now that
the ineptitude of the gold producing industry failed to kill gold on the
down side, it seems they are about to try & kill gold by inadvertently
forcing gold too high before its time. All the while the management of the
gold producer sit in their ivory towers, smugly considering us alarmists.
For over 40 years, We (separately or jointly) have analysed the price of
gold more acutely than anyone in the exploration, development, advisory,
media, mining field. But the leaders prefer to listen to only those who
have sold them these instruments of financial incapacity.
The instruments being used today are non transparent, unregulated, non
market priced, private treaty unlisted arrangements. These instruments
have no clearinghouse facility therefore they present significant counterparty
risk. What a bill of good the gold banks have sold to the gold
industry. It is in grave danger of significant financial problems as a result.
It's so perverse these problems are brought on by the very bull market we
have so long desired.
The truth is out---U read it first herewith, & in HSL. HSL is the Free
Gold Press leading edge. We are warriors in the war for sound money,
transparency, governance & level playing fields; which is the stuff Free
Markets are made of.
Let's have a fast review before we reveal to U the shocking truth of greed
gone wild in the gold cartel.
1/Gold almost never leads a rise in the commodity market. Yet today it is.
2/Gold is rising for other & sound reasons.
3/ Many key commodities (Soy, Wheat, and Sugar) are far below their
cost of production & have been for the normal multi-year inventory takedown
period.
4/The equation that is the soundest fundamental reason for a gold bull
market is a growing current account balance (overseas holders of US $¹s)
with a growing US budget deficit plus a classic technical top in the
USDX (index measuring $'s performance trade weighted) & a lower bond
market.
5/The Federal Reserve is in the tightest box since it was (illegally)
founded in 1913. Its mission then & now is to prevent liquidity meltdowns.
The Federal Reserve later this year will not lead interest rates
higher but only follow the mkt in catch-up action to the market reality of
higher rates. If the Federal Reserve dared to lead interest rates higher in
2002, U would see NASDOG below 1000. That is being boxed in!
6/US stocks show ongoing weakness, confirming a bear mkt.
7/ Notional Value of a derivative becomes Real Market Value at $354
gold as a product of risk control systems used by all gold banks and derivative traders. This is a key element of this analysis as the numbers U are about to
see become real $ figures in the marketplace.
Anyone in gold knows that a 22 year bear market is a very long time. U
also know the fundamentals that sparked the boom of the 80s & 90s has a
lot to do with accounting mirrors & the Madness of the Crowd syndrome.
Much has occurred in gold during this period & the biggest event is the
advent of Gold Banks, Gold Derivatives, Gold Leasing & Financial (not
Mining) leadership (virtual control) of gold producing companies. Gold
producers became commodity traders. The Treasury Depts of gold
producers became incubators of Chairmen & CEOs. The big guns made
more money shorting the gold mkt via derivatives than they did mining
gold. They first got short not by logic but as a gimmick‹sold to them by
gold banks to obtain development money. They thus helped the gold mkt
go lower by constant selling of future product.
As proponents of Free Markets, we have no objection to a commodity
producer seeking to fix the sales price of the item they produce. They
need to know a hard revenue figure in order to project spending. But that
is not what happened in the last 10 years. Producers liked the profits from
being short gold & loved non-recourse loans for production that require
shorting the production. It is now time we all stopped calling these
maneuvers hedging. It is not. It is shorting gold. Yes, it's hidden in a
maze of sometimes incoherent derivative transactions but the bottom line
of a commodity spread is that it is a short sale.
The producers were not satisfied with the Comex 2-year facility to short
gold. They did not want to put up the margin requirements. Rather they
stampeded into the New Age Derivative market of the gold banks. Here
they could deal in so-called No Margin Call Hedges which are in the
main loan lines against in-ground production without margin
requirements or complex put/call arrangements. They bought already
constructed packages of derivatives as required by their lenders on
development loans for new production, often without putting up cash out
of treasury first. To prove that the company itself had little knowledge of
what they were doing, Ashanti had to call in a rocket scientist from
Goldman Sachs just to figure out how deep they were in a financial hole
when gold crossed $325 in the summer of 2000. Many of the present gold
producing hedgers are dependent on in-house accountants or their gold
bank to explain what they are doing. We submit that the board of
directors of these companies if questioned individually would not have a
clue about what they hold in their " clear & present danger" positions.
We know who does know. We can only identify these people to U as Dr.
No & Hung Fat. They are running the gold market now, not the cartel.
The cartel thinks it has an upper hand but it is in a bear trap that has
already snapped closed on their financial legs. The Gold Cartel is so fat, egotistic &
ignorant they don't yet know they are dead in the water.
Here is what Dr. No and Hung Fat know;
Major Central Banks Gold Holdings: The Long Position
--Here are the facts about mine shorting that they & the cartel don't want
U to read. We dug them out via our specially hired R&D team:
Major Central Bank's Gold Holdings
Metric Tons Troy Ounces Value at $300
U.S. 8149 261,998,499 78,599,549,700
Germany 3456.6 111,133,147 33,339,943,980
IMF 3217.3 103,439,412 31,031,823,690
France 3024.8 97,250,345 29,175,103,440
Italy 2451.8 78,827,822 23,648,346,540
Switzerland 2149.7 69,115,005 20,734,501,410
Netherlands 884.5 28,437,560 8,531,267,850
ECB 767 24,659,817 7,397,945,100
Japan 765.2 24,601,945 7,380,583,560
Portugal 606.8 19,509,227 5,852,768,040
Spain 523.4 16,827,833 5,048,350,020
China 500 16,075,500 4,822,653,000
Russia 424.2 13,638,454 4,091,536,260
Tiawan 421.8 13,561,292 4,068,387,540
India 357.8 11,503,628 3,451,088,340
27699.9 890,579,485 267,173,845,470
Avialable for sale (@ 62 2/3) 558,096,744 167,429,032,219
Gold Producers Short Gold Position:
GOLD COMPANY % OF YEARLY PRODUCTION HEDGED
Agnico Eagle 0%
Ashanti 873%
Aurion Gold 862%
Aurora Gold 186%
Anglo Gold 184%
Barrick Gold 298%
Cambior 309%
Cameco 400%
Durban Deep 67%
Echo Bay 27%
Freeport McM 0%
Glamis Gold 0%
Goldcorp 0%
Goldfields 0%
GRD 964%
Harmony 99%
Hecla Mines 102%
Hill 50 645%
IAMGold 68%
Inmet Gold 80%
Kiross Gold 54%
Lihir Gold 404%
Meridan 0%
Mim Holdings 135%
Newmont/Norm. 124%
Normandy NFM 407%
Placer Dome 1202%
Resolute 105%
Rio Tinto 0%
Sons of Gwalia 1157%
Teck-Cominco +A16 95%
TVX Gold 220%
Western Areas* 506%
198%
* Western Areas poduction number is low due to restructuring.
Total Ounces sold Short BY Producers 94,832,857 oz = $30,346,514,240 @ $320 AU
Total Nominal Value of derivatives on the books of the Commercial
Banks of the reporting 48 nations of the IMF survey.
900,000,000 oz. or $278,000,000,000 @ $320 gold = USD$288,000,000,000
Gold producers need to know what they're up against. Gold Producers are the
smallest presence in the Gold Derivative market! FYI, at $354 gold producers only 11% of the total notional value which then will be a real value. ----Now U know the Shocking truth of the greed driven gold banks.
Gold Producers are ONLY 11% of the TOTAL World Gold Derivative ounces and value.
Who are the others? They are the Wise Guys. On Wall
Street, we call those who are in the gold derivative market without a
commodity producing reason, the Wise Guys. These Wise Guys are the
Carry Trade who are, like the producers, short gold spreads & entities that
have used the gold lease derivative market for financing their business
that has nothing whatever to do with producing, rendering or selling gold.
Dr. No & Hung Fat are not gunning for the producers. They are after the
Wise Guys. The Gold Derivative market is a cornered short sided market
in a corner. This is a titanic secret market struggle between giants. The
recent 300pt DJIA 1-day wonder rally is an example of what can happen
when the short side of anything gets crowded. Gold is, in a volume sense,
a peanut market but with a short corner of such mammoth proportions
that anyone with one synapse speaking to another can understand how
dire is the condition of the derivative dealing gold banks.
Now what does a cornered rat do?. When Jesse Livermore cornered the
coffee mkt in the early 1900s he had everything fundamental going for
him. What he forgot was the political connections of the coffee importers
& the US govt. The importers were short to Livermore who was long.
They called their pals in Washington & demanded price & import
controls. Poor Jesse got walloped on that position because he forgot to
calculate what short rats will do when cornered.
Dr. No & Hung Fat are too smart to make the mistake Jesse Livermore
made. They know exactly what the derivative shorts will do & when.
Nothing is new on the face of this earth. They will call the Central Banks
& demand the Cavalry comes to the rescue. U must have seen recently
the Cartel looked downright non professional in their selling into a bag
held by these two great Asian traders. The Cartel is losing its power &
only providing an easy accumulation of more positions for sources of
money that make the cartel look poor in comparison.
Now let's assume Dr. No & Hung Fat push gold, in time, above the
critical $354 & the derivative melt down is at 2000 degrees F. The
Commercial Banks scream to their power sources. The Central Banks line
up to sell their gold, with the exception of those under the Washington
Agreement. All they can offer is: 561,065,075 ounces worth @ gold price
$354: $201,422,361. But the derivative short position is
900,000,000 oz with a value @ $354 of $ 318,600,000,000.00
That means the situation now is that the derivative gold short position is
equal to all the gold held by all the central banks outside of the
Washington Agreement. U now know why the Washington agreement
came into place in order to prevent just what is happening. Those Central
Banks, seeing the figures, hoped to slow down the gold derivative trade
by freezing their participation in it. Now U know why traditional gold
dealers are leaving the gold mkt & expunging these instruments from
their books.
If all Central Banks in the world sold all the gold they held in a
derivative melt-down they would make the following offer: All Central
Banks = 890,579,485 ounces of gold held to a Short Derivative Position
forced to cover of 900,000,000 oz. Assuming that central banks then held
no gold at all, the gold price would be in the hands of Dr. No & Hung Fat
who would more than likely sell a segment for over $2000 per ounce with
the attendant negative effect on the US Dollar, making gold even more
valuable.Thus it is reasonable to assume Central Banks will not sell all or even a
large part of their remaining gold. It will then be their primary reserve
asset, growing in value, & like the 70s they are more apt to buy then sell
regardless of silly rhetoric.
In conclusion, we again say to the gold producers, expunge your books
of all derivative contracts. U have alternative means of financing your
development projects today. You can go recourse on your loans for new
production without fear of financial problems. Your financial problems
lie more in the counter-party risk of the paper gold short derivative
spreads U hold now! There is no free lunch & there's no commodity
contract without a margin call. We do not oppose hedging done correctly,
in open, listed, clearing house indebted instruments.
(This is an HSL/FMU copyright article. Permission to reproduce is
hereby granted, provided phrases are not quoted out of context &
provided full by-line credit is given with email addresses:
www.HSLetter.com and www.Tanrange.com Embargo: No reproduction
permitted until May 29, 2002) END.
Black Blade
(5/29/02; 20:03:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 76915)
Popping New York Manhole Covers Rattle Markets
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20020529/ts_nm/markets_manhole_dc_2
Snippit:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Several street manhole covers popped into the air near the Empire State Building on Wednesday, police said, rattling markets edgy over official warnings of possible attacks on New York. A spokesman for the ConEd utility said up to seven manhole covers blew because of pressure from overheated electrical wiring underground at West 34th Street and 6th Avenue in Manhattan near the landmark building and Macy's department store.
Black Blade: Interesting in what people can come with for an excuse as to why equities markets were doing so poorly. It also demonstrates how fragile the energy infrastructure is. Just this week a report was released (I wish I had a copy) that indicated the destruction of just one NY electrical transformer could shut down the energy grid in the city for up to 6 months.
Canuck
(5/29/02; 19:53:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 76914)
@ Waverider
Were you in the 'gold world' Sept. 26, 1999?
Here's the scoop.
Fri. Sept 24, 1999 gold closed in NY at $268.40
The WA announcement, judging by the spike, occured on Sept. 26 at about 8?:30pm.
Gold closed in NY on Monday, Sept.27 at 281.90
Sept. 28 close 307.90 (major spike to 328)
Sept. 29 close 302
sept. 30 close 297.40 (they almost had it back!)
Oct. 1 close 304
Oct. 4 close 317.30
Oct. 5 close 324 (major spike to 337)
Oct. 6 close 324
Oct. 7 close 322.30
Oct. 8 close 320
Oct. 11 close 318.20
Oct. 12 close 316.50
Oct. 13 close 319.80
Oct. 14 close 312.90
Oct. 15 close 314.70
Oct. 18 close 309.70
Oct. 19 close 307.60
Oct. 20 close 305.30
Oct. 21 close 303.50
Oct. 22 close 301.20
Oct. 25 close 298.50
Oct. 26 close 288.90
It was a wild month, $337 is my 'line in the sand'!!
So now we've had nearly a month of 'good times', pullback or rocket?
What's your hunch?
Canuck
Goldilocks 1
(5/29/02; 19:51:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 76913)
Price guess
$$$$327.9$$$$
It just has to keep going up.
Au-some
(5/29/02; 19:43:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 76912)
Price guess
$$$$325.10$$$
Because all I know is amateur chart analysis and I believe that the trend is your friend with slight weakness just before the month end.
Ozzie
(5/29/02; 19:36:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 76911)
Politcally......Internationally....
....Restraint....Hey!!....Inordinate Restraint!
Canuck
(5/29/02; 19:21:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 76910)
@ Waverider
Hard to say about the 'pullback'.
G.TO and IMG.TO, for example purposes only, had a huge pop early, a large pullback and then finished strong.
In both cases they has an exceptional final 30/40 minutes and finished higher at close than an open.
I myself am waiting for the 'hedger' casualties. In Sept/Oct 1999 only a couple weeks of $325/330 caused panic. If we sit at these levels for another week or two 'death' shall arrive.
There was an interesting fellow on ROB-TV this afternoon, a prominent gold analyst for a CDN fund. Sorry, I forget the name, maybe someone else caught it. He speculates that rattled shorts may 'pile on' at any moment causing $15 and $20 days.
I mentioned a few days ago that if we break the 1999 high (330/340?) watch for fireworks.
As BB mentioned earlier the 'line drawn in the sand' at $325 is most interesting. But recall the $292, $305/308, $312 lines were all blown away.
My 'line in the sand' is Oct. 1999 resistance, I will check the number.
Later,
Canuck.
Black Blade
(5/29/02; 19:04:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 76909)
SEC's Pitt: Disclosing His Meetings Could Harm Investors
http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/020529/200205290815000329_1.html
Snippit:
WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Harvey Pitt said he won't divulge details about his meetings because that might upset markets and harm investors. In a CNBC interview Tuesday, Pitt rejected suggestions to publicize details about his private meetings with Wall Street executives and corporate officials, which he said often involve sensitive deals or problems....
Black Blade: Now this is "interesting". Considering the vast number of SEC probes lately, it would appear that all is not well on Wall Street. In fact it looks downright ugly. The trading volume is already at a low point on Wall Street and we are just beginning to enter into what traders call the "Summer Doldrums". Investors are ever more likely to seek alternative investments (like Gold perhaps).
Gotta run and get some Negra Modelo (a supply shortage ya know), and then to read SJ Kaplan for some comic relief.
misetich
(5/29/02; 19:02:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 76908)
Kaplan
SJ Kaplan was "extremely bullish" when gold was being attacked from the $350.00 level downward and extremely "bearish" at $280. etc.
His track record is a phenomenal 1 right and over 100 wrong -
Flipping a coing, darts give you better chances than following Kaplan
Go physical - follow the Trail
Thanks for this great forum
R Powell
(5/29/02; 18:37:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 76907)
Jimbo
Exactly, well said! Kaplan warns of falling prices from a precious metals mania bubble bursting. The mania hasn't even begun. The investment herds are still grazing on stocks at the Dow and Duck corral. The market cap for mining stocks that Kaplan speaks of or the total market value of gold and silver (at present prices), is a pittance compared to most stock sectors. A mania might be on its way but we'll certainly know when it arrives. What price gold or silver to accomodate all the buyers in a herd of investors after they've contracted hoof and mania?
Rich
Husky
(5/29/02; 18:23:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 76906)
Jimbo PR vs. PM
Jimbo - you ask whether gold will win the PR war. The answer is that it will. This is because the PR is only intended to give the banks and brokerages involved the upper hand in accumulating the stuff to sell later at high prices. The point is that they themselves obviously believe in gold. So the question is really a moot point. All the little guy has to do is batten down the hatches and wait out all the PR shenanigans. We know it can't last forever, and that at some point they will have to move the inventory.
YGM
(5/29/02; 18:21:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 76905)
Jimbo.....
To my mind every thing you said in your last post is 100% right on and that's exactly why the average investor gets into a Gold Bull @ or near the top...The advisors/anal-ysts
don't get paid to sell PM stocks...Word of mouth only works on those who can think for themselves and few can that's obvious by the numbers who listen to brokers like they were a financial whiz God! People earn the name sheeple and the fleecing will always go on!
Ozzie
(5/29/02; 18:18:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 76904)
A World Without Goldman.....
....I can deal with it....hasta la vista!
YGM
(5/29/02; 18:13:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 76903)
Kaplan and Andy Smith.....
About 3 minutes.....
...is all it takes to click the mouse and move on...Some body is on some serious mood drugs in that pair. Ritalin or Prozac maybe. Lord knows why they get so much commentary for having so little to offer in the reality department.
Better to re-read old stuff and reinforce convictions than to clutter ones' brain with their drivel......YGM.
Ozzie
(5/29/02; 18:10:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 76902)
R Powell....Atmospherics!
....got gold?...of course you do.
Jimbo
(5/29/02; 18:10:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 76901)
PR vs. PM
As a relative newcomer to this forum and to trading gold stocks, I'd like to share my perceptions regarding the battle I call "PR vs. PM" (Public Relations vs. Precious Metal). What I see being waged on a daily basis by the big trading firms is a full-fledged PR campaign to fight the perception that gold is a good investment (and to deter customers from buying gold). This must be obvious to those of you who have been posting on this forum for several years. But it's certainly not obvious to the general public or even relatively informed investors. I know because I talk with several investment buddies who believe everything their financial advisers tell them and shun gold for rather specious reasons.
For instance, an investor friend reminded me that Goldman-Sucks had advised clients today to sell their gold interests. The company's rationale had something to do with a dip in consumer purchases of gold jewelry. Last night, I watched CNNFN with another investor friend and saw a women financial "expert" tell viewers that gold was "too volatile" for most investors and urged her audience not to own more than 3-5 percent in gold stocks.
As a 37-year PR veteran, I can smell a sham when I see it. The problem is, it seems to me that every large trading firm is engaged in misinforming customers about gold. And the financial media listens to--and reports--everything they're told (with the exception of Thom Callandra, of course). Whatever happened to objective reporting, I ask naively?
My suspicion is that these same trading firms, now that they realize gold is a good future investment, are secretly buying up large amounts of gold shares to resell later to their unsuspecting customers (at much higher prices, of course). And at the same time, they're acting in a duplicitous manner by convincing customers to remain invested in equities that have under-performed for years.
The problem is that the trading firms win every time a Goldman-Sucks convinces investors to sell off at the end of the trading day...even when the price of gold reaches a new high. We saw the result today when most PM stocks fell after posting early gains.
From my vantage point, this is a PR war, my friends. And the big trading firms have all the guns. They certainly have more and better PR weapons than the gold mining companies. Where does this PR war go from here, I ask myself? Will gold win the war because more and more investors, through word of mouth, will see its potential and buy? Or will the big trading firms and financial media keep a lid on things through powerful PR campaigns?
R Powell
(5/29/02; 17:58:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 76900)
White Knight // Dreamin
I remember many posts from long ago (and not too far away) wishing or speculating about a well financed buyer to challange the exchange shorts and gold carry trade players. Names like Soros and Buffett were often mentioned. With the present fundamentals (COT), industry outlook (anti-hedge), world currency situation (weakening US$), world security issues (there everywhere!) and investor sentiment (even Ron Insane-a is worried), NOW would be an excellent time, no!
Mikal, Pizz (silverbugs everywhere) can we sing when spot silver looks back at $5.00?
Rich
R Powell
(5/29/02; 17:42:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 76899)
COT
Kaplan's article (just mentioned) did correctly state that a vast majority of the short side of futures contracts is now held by the commercials. He assumes this means only one thing- lower metal prices. Price prediction has never been this simple. Never will be.
This would seem to indicate that the speculative fund managers have correctly identified that gold's price trend has stopped declining. Further, they've viewed the charts, seen the uptrend, (sang, once again, their mantra, "The trend is my friend.") and have closed their short positions and initiated longs. The small specs were long before and have been since before the Flood. There is no one selling now except the commercials! Who else dares to?
The question is, will prices continue up with only the commercials selling at ever increasingly higher bid-ask spreads OR will prices break and the large specs (again chanting about the trend) start unwinding their huge long position?? FWIW, I've never seen (studied) a real runaway commodity bull market but I don't sense that the commercials can get much shorter (% wise) without much higher price moves. But, all this becomes totally inconsequential immediately following detenation of the first nuke.
Thoughts?
Rich
Ozzie
(5/29/02; 17:27:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 76898)
E-Bay.......Short It!!!
...sound faintly familiar?....Didn't see Rhinoceros.....but I read it....in French!!!
R Powell
(5/29/02; 17:14:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 76897)
Gimli Re. Kaplan
It seems that Kaplan's argument that mining shares are overvalued is based on the present POG. He even says as much but he never even acknowledges that share prices may lead POG. Many talked of whether stock prices do (lead POG) and some even muddled and mused over how much POG must now rise to catch up to the XAUs, HUIs and TSEGPMs of the world.
We asked, "Are mining stock prices overvalued or is POG undervalued. The consensus next door is that POG should advance about $4.00 for every one point uptick in the XAU.
Kaplan's argument has assumed that POG has peaked now and thus stocks are overvalued. Would these same shares be overvalued if POG rises to $440 by Labor Day?
Many also correctly forecast that the XAU would rise pretty much unhindered to about 90 once it clearly broke through about 75-77 (I believe, if memory serves). This has happened but when the TAs call them this well, they probably have the short "retraction" or "backing and filling" point right too. POG and POS have worked hard and it's been all uphill so they might need a little rest. Who knows, maybe this was the first of many 100yd dashes or maybe they've just started a marathon! Did you notice what Kaplan substantiated his viewpoint on?
Rich
CoBra(too)
(5/29/02; 17:13:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 76896)
@ Gimli - He's right - Dump him -
Stephen Jon Kaplan - that is! - probably, should have never started a financial advisory market letter or web site - though, that may be beside the point - as reality has long proven the total imbecility of this guys calls ... in the long run he will be right again - same as Joe Granville -
... and please don't bother to bring the decidedly and decisively outstanding ruminations of this calibre to our attention - again. At least I can do without his time proven nonsense ... Uh, oh, contenance' - and don't get carried away ... cb2
PS: Graefin - don't worry - Keine Sorge - don't cry about me - only about the difference between Japan and Argentina ... 3 years! ... Not so funny - as the joke's merit doesn't touch on the real prob - how long before the US will be argentinized? After all, Argentina is a victim of Globalization and Dollarization ... Sorry - though I have to use the word - this kind of Scheiss was introduced by the US -
... To maybe repeat myself - heard an ex-Austrian Argentinian, who has written some pretty neat books (Alfredo Bauer), of jewish descent and still a communist, who argued that the demise of communism opened all spigots of relentless, unchecked and unbacked capitalistic debt sprees of all times.
Can I argue with that? In view of the ongoing usurpation of civil rights and liberty in the name of fighting terrorism on a global front - I, for one would rather live free and heroically face the threat of terror against - specifically me ... before surrendering the rest of my personality to the national (global) quest to tattoo my wrist with a number and implant a chip in my brain.
Uh, oh ... sorry - just woke up to my rant ...
Mexican
(5/29/02; 17:10:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 76895)
@Gimli_ or Pros and Cons
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/020423/232755_1.html
If his picture becomes reality, what I really don't think, there are still some nice deals only waiting for execution. The most important thing for me I've learned from the .com bubble is that as long as a sector (PM) is in "fashion" obviously nothing can stop the upward trend. Bottom line is that the so-called herd didn't learn anything from the past. Should be my advantage.
Saludos!
MX
R Powell
(5/29/02; 16:52:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 76894)
A Keeper
Cousin Chris has alerted us to an article by John Hathaway and Chris' post provides a link to this article.
Sometimes it seems all I can find are mainstream press articles or the daily financial newspapers' comments which, while worth reading, often offer nothing new. Precious metals oriented newsletters often disappoint for the same reason- interesting but old news. I find myself thinking, "Yes, that's so, but Mr. Blade told us that last week."
Not so, this article from Mr. Hathaway. What we do know is there (and then some) but with more and different explanations as to what these things may precipitate. Well worth reading a few times. Thanks John Hathaway!
Towncrier, is there room for this in permanent storage? I believe it's worthy.
Rich
Mexican
(5/29/02; 16:49:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 76893)
@BB
1 Euro = $0.93 is the kiss of death for the greenback. The area above the major resistance level of $0.93 is in fact the final signal for each European investor to pull money out of the U.S. Bond and Stock Market.
Saludos!
MX
TownCrier
(5/29/02; 16:22:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 76892)
From USAGOLD NewsWire: Gold Prices Rise to 4 1/2-Year High on Stronger Investor Demand
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&middle=ad_frame2_all&s=APPU47xV6R29sZCBQ
New York, May 29 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices rose to a 4 1/2- year high, gaining for the ninth time in 10 sessions on increased demand from investors seeking an alternative to stocks.
Gold has soared 17 percent this year, compared with a 7 percent drop in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index. Investors are turning to gold for the first time in years, seeking better returns and protection from any disruption to financial markets because of tensions in the Middle East and Asia, traders said.
``Today we're seeing another wave of fund buying,'' said Peter Merritt, head of precious-metals trading at HSBC Holdings Plc in New York. ``Investment funds are sitting on lots of cash.''
...Demand for gold in Japan more than doubled in the first quarter from the same period a year earlier to 56.5 metric tons, according to the London-based World Gold Council. Some Japanese investors converted savings into gold after the government imposed a limit on insurance coverage for bank time-deposits.
-----------(click URL for more)--------
Bottom line: A contingency with upside potential. When life's little surprises require certain keys to pass through roadblocks, you will know with absolute clarity the difference between having them or not.
Call Centennial. Friendly, knowledgeable assistance is waiting for you.
R.
Gimli_
(5/29/02; 16:17:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 76891)
Steven Jon Kaplan says DUMP IT!! What do you say? ;-)
http://www.goldminingoutlook.com/
SUMMARY: SELL YOUR GOLD MINING SHARES!!! My current outlook for gold and gold mining shares has deteriorated to VERY STRONGLY BEARISH, the first time that such a stance has been justified since I began this online newsletter. Many junior gold mining shares are now trading at the same levels that they were in the mid-1990s, when the gold price itself was above $400 per ounce, and many of these companies are still losing money. Those which are actually making a profit are selling at P/E ratios typical of the Nasdaq in its heyday. Speculative juniors have been far outperforming their senior counterparts in recent weeks, as is typical of any market near the top of a bubble. Just because the gold share bubble is not quite as exaggerated as the Nasdaq was in March 2000 doesn't mean that it isn't a bubble all the same. Brokerages are generally very positive toward gold mining shares, continually raising their price targets, and even those who are supposedly bearish on gold are using phrases such as "fully valued at current levels," fearful of looking foolish by actually predicting a price drop, which is again typical of any bubble, when bears are afraid to be bears. Besides myself, there is not a single gold analyst—not one--willing to state definitively on the record that the price of gold is going below $300 per ounce, even though such a decline would be a mere 10% move, whereas many analysts are speaking publicly of $350, $400, and higher. Speculative call buying on gold mining shares, traders’ commitments on gold and on currencies which correlate with the gold price, insider selling by gold mining executives, insider issuance of new shares (Newmont, Harmony, Goldcorp, Agnico-Eagle, Echo Bay), and investor bullishness (now 86% on gold itself according to Market Vane, 100% on gold funds according to Investors’ Intelligence) are at even higher levels than at the February 1996 peak, and are surpassed only by the January 1980 super-euphoria. The kind of bubble which happened in 1979 can only occur in the late stages of a gold bull market; it is very likely that the HUI index of gold mining shares will be at current or even lower levels eight or nine years from now, before such a final bubble is ready to occur. Commercials are likely net short more than 90 thousand contracts of COMEX gold. Physical demand for gold has dropped more than 20% in many areas, including South Asian imports and professional jewelry orders, which are critical to sustaining a gold price above $300. Lots of brokerages, aware of the downtrend in the Nasdaq and fearful that investors would take their money out of their management entirely, have been encouraging their clients to switch into gold shares and gold funds as a survival tactic, to save their own butts, rather than because of any conviction as to their value as an investment. Other investors have found that it is easier to make a single phone call to their mutual fund company to switch from the Nasdaq into gold mining shares rather than doing research into bank CD yields or the relative merits of TIPS or municipal bonds. The mainstream business media has been heavily covering gold and gold mining shares in recent weeks, even more so than in the mid-1990s. A 40% drop in gold mining share prices is a likely scenario over the next several months, and one should not seriously consider purchasing these shares until either gold goes below $270 spot or commercials go net long more than ten thousand contracts of COMEX gold, whichever comes first. One should be aware that short-term fluctuations in gold share prices often overwhelm the long-term trend, no matter how pronounced the long-term trend may be over an extended period of time. For example, gold shares rallied very strongly from late 1972 through their peak in the early 1980s. However, investors who bought gold shares in late 1974, after the first rally stage was essentially complete, were actually losing money in late 1978, four years later. Similarly, in spite of the very strong rally in gold mining shares from late 1928 through 1937, investors who bought gold mining shares close to the first peak in 1930 were behind, not ahead, in late 1936, thus suffering more than six years of disappointment. In practice, most latecomers were shaken out by the sharp downswings, and did not even participate in the profitable final blowoff. Buy and hold can be a wonderful strategy, but only if one buys when prices are truly depressed, not when one buys to "not miss out" on a momentum trend play which is close to reversing or has already reversed. When purchasing any securities, gold mining or otherwise, avoid buying on margin and never purchase call options, so that the magnitude of the eventual gain is the only important issue, rather than the vagaries of precise timing or interim volatility. Always stick with companies that have strong, growing earnings; avoid companies with losses. Occasionally a money-losing company will suddenly turn around and become profitable, but that is the rare exception
Black Blade
(5/29/02; 15:41:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 76890)
The Battle For $325 Gold
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegoldnewyork.html
It appears that about one hour after the regular market open in New York, there was just enough selling pressure to push the POG back to the $325.00/oz. level. This is what appears to be the "line in the sand" for those who are defending against a rising POG. It would also appear from the linked chart that it was a tough fight because the POG squeaked barely over $325.00/oz. by the close. I imagine that many large Gold shorts are looking for a way out and at the same time are cornered. If they cover their short positions they risk pushing the price higher and that would put more upward pressure on Gold prices. This is the "double edged sword" they face. Someone is pushing a lot of paper at the rising Gold market.
Another interesting point is all the positive press released this morning on CNBC and CNNfn about the yellow metal. A parade of Gold Fund managers and analysts who are positive on Gold were thrust in front of the cameras. However, later on we saw Goldman Sachs (and other investment bankers) release bearish comments on Gold in a desperate bid to help cap the rising Gold price. This may have had a temporary (very temporary) effect on slowing the POG advance this morning. Yet, the POG did hold the line and could be poised to make further gains in the sort term especially as the USD index falls. And speaking of the USD, look at how much it has fallen from 122 In February. That's almost an 8.4% decline in the US Dollar! Since Gold is denominated in US Dollars, this has to have a very large effect on the POG. If the US economy is to recover from the deepening recession, a falling US Dollar is necessary. There are indications that now European investors are pulling funds out of the US bond and stock markets further adding pain to Wall Street.
Then there are the international pressures. The violence in the Middle East has flared up again with more terrorist activities and Israeli tanks reentering the West Bank. The Paki-Indian border dispute gets worse daily. Now the Pentagon has come out with a report that a "conventional war" is likely. However, I think that a nuclear escalation is quite possible, especially if Pakistan finds itself on the losing end. Another hotspot is the Philippines. Apparently the US may be drawn into the conflict with the Abu Sayaf guerillas. Also, Colombian president elect Uribe is ready to ask the US for help to combat the FARC guerillas in a "fight to the finish". Meanwhile, the US is working to build support for another go at Saddam early next year. Another report from Germany is that Al Qaeda is still active in Europe. The world is becoming a more unstable place. Definitely a good time to insure a portfolio with Gold and Silver.
"Interesting Times"
- Black Blade
Off to the gym
balzac
(5/29/02; 15:25:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 76889)
mONEY sUPPLY gROWING
I just looked at value line's latest and confirmed my suspicions: Money Supply M3 is now $8,089,000,000,000. up 8.2% (That's Trillions)
in the last 12 months.
Implications for gold are positive and for US dollar Index
are negative. The larger the supply the lower the Dollar.
In my thinking, a major cause for the jump in spot.
Balzac.
Jon
(5/29/02; 15:05:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 76888)
$$$$$318.9$$$$$
POG up $20 past month. Time for digesting until next climb begins. Will present great buying opportunity.
Chris Powell
(5/29/02; 15:04:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 76887)
"Slow-motion short squeeze"
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1123
Tocqueville's John Hathaway sees a "slow-motion
short squeeze" in gold:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/1123
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:
gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com
AUthentic
(5/29/02; 14:59:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 76886)
Gold Price Guess
$$$$332.8$$$$ There is no reason to believe the trend will not continue, with the dollar weakening steadily and war building on a global basis.
Waverider
(5/29/02; 14:56:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 76885)
Volatility
Has anyone else noticed the sell off in Gold shares this afternoon? The last time this happened (about a month ago), the POG then headed a few degrees south. I have a feeling POG is coming under fresh attack...hang on!
The Hoople
(5/29/02; 14:47:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 76884)
Simply Me
Your thought was an epiphany for me. A little fry buys physical, a "Giant" buys deep storage. I don't know if that has been said before but it hit me like a ton of bricks (100 oz shiny ones) Thanks for that pearl.
R Powell
(5/29/02; 14:21:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 76883)
Silver or soybeans?
For those of us who watch strange things like this,
July soybeans- 496.25
July silver- 494.5
So at today's close you'll have to add 1.75 pennies to one ounce of silver to purchase one bushel of soybeans. I have no information on any historical ratios but I'll venture a guess that one silver ounce will buy many soybean bushels within one year's time.
It's unusual for the XAU to be down
XAU 85.76 -2.89
While the Toronto Stock Exchange precious metals producers index is positive,
TSEGPM 7,684.93 +339.82
Does anyone know what companies make up the TSEGPM?
Will a list of these shown unhedged miners? Someone next door mentioned that some gold mutual funds only buy the big market cap companies (like Barrick and Placer Dome). This was the answer given as to why many gold mutual funds have not done anywhere near as well as an index such as the HUI, which has no hedgers.
Not all gold mutual funds are created equal or, should I say, perform alike. I've probably just given another reason to invest mainly in physical or to do, as they say, your due diligence before investing anywhere.
Rich
YGM
(5/29/02; 13:59:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 76882)
Simply Me...
In 1999 I asked this forum "When the price of gold skyrockets and the dollar drops, who will end up with the gold mines."...Simply Me.
My friend just understanding the coniving thinking of a greed governed mind will answer that question.
Take for example the MacHamburger franchise that cast greedy eyes on the Rancher who raised the Beef...So the Cowman fell to the MacRancher.
The Middle man makes the most and always wants more and in order to get more he must own the "Source"....
As I said in a previous post awhile back there are many facets to the Gold Wars, some planned and some hatched by those who saw the potential of the Endgame being played.
Great sideline wealth is, has and will be generated by those on the coat-tails of the Cabal. Fortunately we the few with steadfast beliefs may also participate in our small way.....Let the Goldmans and Morgans own the Mines...
Maybe I can again stand over a hole, tell a lie or two and get some of their Cash for more Gold :>}
Graefin
(5/29/02; 13:50:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 76881)
Koala Bear...
The same thing has been happening here in the Euro Zone...POG hasn't jumped as much as USD does...but also have to figure in that 6% (and falling) decline of the good 'ol U S of A Green Back! In time...In time. Welcome aboard!
Peace!
- Gräfin
Simply Me
(5/29/02; 13:39:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 76880)
1999 question is finally beginning to be answered
In 1999 I asked this forum "When the price of gold skyrockets and the dollar drops, who will end up with the gold mines."
There was no answer then. Oh well, I was just a newby to the forum then and attributed the lack of answer to my own ignorance of the situation.
But that question kept niggling at the back of my brain.
After all, if gold is the ultimate money and money is power, then who's end-game plan is to capture the largest stores of gold on earth...those yet unmined.
Recently, with all the 'big hedger' mines taking over the non-hedgers, I'm beginning to see some hints...but there's a long way to go.
RE:The Hoople (5/29/02; 12:09:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 76868)
The Fed might ultimately only be a mine custodian for foreign banks if GATA is correct.
If physical gold ownership is the best route to economic self-determination, then the small fry buy coins and bullion....but what does a giant buy for protection? After all, there is more than one giant and they're not all friendly.
There are many games on this playing field and one of them is a game of 'mine control'!
Hoping to hear more ideas,
Simply
Houston
(5/29/02; 13:33:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 76879)
YGM your #76865 "Truths..."
YGM,
After lurking (and being indocturnated) on the "K" site for about 3 years I recently found the USA gold. In reading so many of TEOTWAWKI and Armegeddon scenarios including the Y2K projections I am really beginning to think comments such as yours really could be come a reality. Unfortunately, I see it sooner than later. Excellent observation and prediction of those who have little and do little will be little affected.
Waverider
(5/29/02; 13:26:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 76878)
US Dollar Index
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=2
The dollar's falling into the abyss...
BTW- a warm welcome to all new posters.
Graefin
(5/29/02; 13:25:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 76877)
Aristotle, Gandalf, Cobra Zwei, All...
Aristotle...Gold: I got me some today! :)
Gandalf...Wow! You really ARE Merlin!
Cobra...Don't make me worry about you too. Have enough going on here to have to worry about u 2!
Peace!
- Gräfin
Husky
(5/29/02; 13:19:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 76876)
$$$$ 365.2 $$$$
Anticipation of the lid coming off at the beginning of June should cause it to overshoot 350 as the last-minute-Louey types scramble to get in before they know it will go parabolic. Also, this number isn't taken yet and it
resembles the number of days in a year rounded to the nearest tenth.
YGM
(5/29/02; 13:18:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 76875)
Gold Wars...Financial Armegeddon...NWO
and "TRUTH"
All truth goes through three stages:
1...First it is ridiculed.
2...Then it is violently opposed.
3...Finally, accepted as self-evident.
IMHO..We have entered the beginnings of stage 3, with the dregs of stage 2 still clinging to self interest of denial.
When these "Truths" become fully self evident one can only begin to imagine the chaos and confusion that will permeate the helpless over dependant societies of first world nations.
Those accustomed to having little and always making do as in all third world nations will be little affected, in fact they may even take pleasure in seeing the crumbling of our Ivory Towers & False Sense of Security & Wealth!
Many of those in what we N americans consider the 3rd World
will actually benefit as they hold physical Gold bought gram by gram, week by week over a lifetime.
There is a "Great Reckoning" (Davidson/Reese Moog) coming and it will ensure at the very least a redistribution of wealth as yet never before seen on the face of this Earth!
As is said often here, "Gold Get You Some"....(Aristotle)
Some day soon the price of a Bar of physical Gold or a few Bars of Silver will be unattainable by many with their hands full of "Paper" that "Used" to be worth something, 'BUT' they stayed to long in stage 1 & 2....YGM.
koala bear
(5/29/02; 13:03:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 76874)
Competition
Hi guys, I have been lurking since Feb. but I don't say anything because my economic analysis is somewhat wanting. [Trust me on that one, ok?] Anyway another price guessing is too much to resist. My guess is $$$$$327.5$$$$.
What possible reason could I give except the chance to win a gold coin!!!! I figure if I wait until the last moment I wont be too far wrong. BTW here in Australia the POG hasn't moved much because the US dollar is declining. This gives the impression that the POG is rising because it is measured in US dollars. But I'm sure that spot will outrun all currencies in time…still waiting…
If a dog is always kept on a chain leash and mistreated, will it bite the assailant when it gets loose?
Sierra Madre
(5/29/02; 12:59:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 76873)
Towncrier: your post regarding EU/Russian relations...
That the EU is set to embrace Russia more closely, by granting it recognition as a market economy, and the prospect of a growth in trade with Russia to 50% of EU exports, plus the growth in trade to come with former Eastern Europe, is closely related to the post by "Mikal" a couple of days ago, where he transcribed comments by JPM senior economist in Canada, which appeared in the National Post, announcing that Canada, the US and Mexico should (will?) share a common currency soon, as it is "advantageous" to all.
The US is being shut out of Europe. The US banks desperately need to increase their loans to keep the debt pyramid in the air. No increase in placing dollar loans means the whole edifice comes crashing down.
What to do? Dollarize Mexico, with enormous resources and 100 million people who have little debt, and Canada, also rich in resources.
Lend, lend, lend to now dollarized economies. Credit cards by the gillions! Public works financed. You name it.
And the objective is not only Canada and Mexico as feifdoms for the US banks. The objective is THE WHOLE HEMISPHERE, down to the tip of Tierra del Fuego, Chile/Argentina.
There has to be a new market for loans: Latin America. This is the reason for the imperial policy of the US.
Sierra
Sierra Madre
(5/29/02; 12:43:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 76872)
DOWNUNDER: the "Weekly World News" scenario...
Seems to me that the scenario is more than likely, but not as presented.
If such an economic collapse were to materialize, I would expect the "Government" to simply crank up money creation by the simple expedient of - mailing monthly checks ($500 bucks?) by the millions to individuals on the lists as unemployed and any other list of groups who have clout such as AARP, for instance.
Inflation? You bet it would be highly inflationary, but, in such a situation, who cares? Send 'em money!!
Sierra
sector
(5/29/02; 12:23:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 76871)
An Impotent Fed...An Accident Waiting to Happen...Doug Nolen's Friday [May 24th] Piece
http://64.29.208.119/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Credit+Bubble+Bulletin&content_idx=12034
Snippit:
It should be recognized as absolutely unacceptable that our nation's financial security today hangs on such a fragile balance. That we just don't know our position- that we must ponder the possibility that we may be at the edge of financial abyss is a travesty. Sound policies simply would never allow our nation's financial position to be so vulnerable. I would like to hear the Laffers and Kudlows of the world admit as much.
The bottom line is that the Fed is today impotent to create the true economic wealth that would lend support to this fragile edifice of dollar financial claims. Instead, the Fed remains trapped in a losing game of aggressively manipulating short-term interest rates, assuring marketplace liquidity, and protecting the wide spreads that so entice the financial speculators. And monetary processes ensure only a greater gap between dollar claims and true economic wealth creating capacity. Perhaps Dr. Laffer will eventually get his way with "tight money." But be careful for what you wish for. For now, extremely low short-term rates keep the leveraged speculating game working. But if this game falters, the Fed may at some point find itself in the same boat as other central bankers. The Fed may be forced to raise rates in an attempt to keep the hot money from turning cold on dollar assets.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The thing that will most mandate a raise in interest rates is a soaring price of gold...which we seem to be wittnessing now. The falling dollar will need support from more than just our Japanese friends...it will need support from a raise in Fed Funds rates.
Recall that for each point in Fed Funds interest rate rise the borrowing costs of industry rises 35%...a factor that will crush the largest companies who carry non-trivial debt levels.
Recall further that JPM carries [At last OCC Report-Q4 2001] $16 Trillion in low volatility interest rate derivatives. It is this top-heavy, financial SUV that is careening out of control these days. Protecting JPM and their mortally wounded IRD book has the Fed frantic to insulate the Fed Funds rate by rigging the discount window rules of late.
Each move the Fed makes reeks of panic.
TownCrier
(5/29/02; 12:14:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 76870)
Growth of the market, euro steps to the front of dollar
http://www.jsonline.com/bym/news/ap/may02/ap-russia-eu052902.asp
(AP) MOSCOW - Russian President Vladimir Putin won a key victory at a summit with European Union leaders Wednesday with a promise that the EU will formally recognize Russia as a market economy.
The pledge by European Commission President Romano Prodi came after Putin launched their summit by saying talks with the EU have been ``going around in circles,'' and that a key hang-up in relations has been the EU's refusal to acknowledge Russia's markets as free more than decade after the Soviet command economy collapsed.
Putin's tough stance at the summit with Russia's largest trading partner contrasted with the smile-filled ceremonies during a summit with U.S. President George W. Bush last week and the signing of a new pact with NATO on Tuesday.
....``Without exaggeration, one can say that how our relations with the European Union develop depends on'' how this dispute is settled, [Putin] said....
...Prodi said he was ``delighted to announce to you today that we are going to grant full market economy status to Russia.'' The EU will also ``take steps'' so that Russia's 7-year-old bid to join the World Trade Organization can be realized as soon as possible, Aznar said.
...Putin pressed for a similar recognition of Russia's market economy from Bush, but failed to win to win any pledges....
Russia and the EU do a vast amount of business together. The EU takes in 35 percent of Russian exports, and that figure is expected to climb to 50 percent as the EU welcomes new member states from the former Soviet Union and eastern Europe over the next several years.
------------
Bottom line: Re-read that if you must, particularly the last excerpted paragraph. The impact this additional euro usage will have upon international relevance of the dollar will not be negligible. Act accordingly.
R.
Sierra Madre
(5/29/02; 12:12:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 76869)
Stradmaster: about Swiss gold, Chinese laundering, etc
If you take a look at Swiss banker Ferdinand Lips's book "Gold Wars", just out and published by Larry Parks at "FAME", you see the other side of the story.
Everything possible is being done to tarnish Switzerland, because of its tradition of privacy and secrecy, and also to get it to cough up GOLD, of which it had the largest stash on a per capita basis, until recently.
The whole idea of the "Jewish gold" was cooked up to blackmail the Swiss Banks with this myth - no evidence was forthcoming, all was a publicized myth easily swallowed by the public - in order to get them to fork over the much-needed gold, and destroy Switzerland as an independent and very strong banking center. The big Swiss banks made a very grave mistake in wanting to become world bankers, instead of minding their own business in Switzerland. With branches in N.Y. and London, they are now very vulnerable to blackmail.
Now, the Chinese tale would very likely be another ploy with the same objective: destroy Swiss privacy, credibility and independence. Privacy is HATED. Independence is HATED. Gold is HATED but needed. The big US and other banks need gold urgently. So, this new story might be a push for more Swiss sales.
So, I would advise much caution in accepting this new myth.
Sierra
The Hoople
(5/29/02; 12:09:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 76868)
Henri
Notice too Goldman's reason for ABX downgrade was "slumping jewelry demand". What a hoot, we have a crashing dollar, governments on the nuclear precipice, but trinkets and bobbles catch their eye? That was pathetic. The Fed might ultimately only be a mine custodian for foreign banks if GATA is correct. BTW, yes, Mott the Hoople. The novel by Willard Manus. Sort of a British Walter Middy. The band by the same name was/is highly entertaining however. I believe a Hoople was a circus performer, the one that trained lions to jump through fiery hoops. In business it fits with what I do for a living.
TownCrier
(5/29/02; 12:05:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 76867)
HEADLINE: Euro soars to new 14-month highs against dollar
http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2002/05/29/rtr616171.html
Excerpt:
..."The negative dollar-sentiment seems to have been gaining. With yen sort of trapped by the Bank of Japan (intervention threats), the euro seems to be a natural. We've been seeing some model players building euro positions," said Eric Nickerson, chief currency strategist at Bank of America.
--------
Bottom line: Ask yourself "How secure is my purchasing power?"
Consider also, physical gold is not only underPRICED, for related effects it is underVALUED too. You may hold the metal not only for security, but also for an anticipation of a realignment in value against all other goods and services -- items traded within the scope of a nation's current account.
R.
TownCrier
(5/29/02; 11:57:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 76866)
HEADLINE: Gold Soars...
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/020529/80/czykb.html
LONDON (Reuters) - Gold has soared to its highest level in nearly five years as investors scrambled into the ultimate safe haven to protect themselves from a possible India-Pakistan war and a slumping dollar.
...The dollar's slump against major currency markets this month, particularly the euro, and losses in global stock markets have also added to the bull run since a weaker dollar makes gold more attractive to investors outside the U.S.
"With the dollar continuing to look weak, gold looks set to make further gains," said John Reade, analyst at UBS Warburg.
-------------
Bottom line: The ball is ever in motion. Action is called for. Call Centennial. Only YOU can dictate if gold is to become part of your portfolio. Merely "thinking about having it", and "having it" are two completely different financial positions; the latter being more secure and more potentially rewarding than the former.
R.
Tommy P
(5/29/02; 11:37:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 76865)
energy and the scam! A must read
http://www.nationalpost.com/financialpost/investing/story.html?f=/stories/20020529/376538.html
buy gold
Strad Master
(5/29/02; 11:01:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 76864)
Very Interesting Back Story
http://www.shopnetdaily.com/store/item.asp?ITEM_ID=851
I got this advertisment in my e-mail today. I find the whole idea to be fascinating (and scary) and I suspect that others at this esteemed forum will share that sentiment. I don't have the time to get the video but maybe someone else here will purchase it and give us a review.
China's Swiss Money Laundering Operation
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terrorism, but there is much more going on under the radar screen.
One such story is told in the compelling video documentary "Red Gold
Rising," a fascinating story about how Red China is using Swiss banks to
launder gold just like Nazi Germany did before World War II --and for a
similar purpose!
What is that common purpose? The answer appears to be to generate
laundered money to corrupt the American political system and thus assist
China's plans for world domination.
Prepared as part of the American Investigator series, this documentary
follows the money and gold trail, and reveals which politicians in
America are benefiting. Filled with info on how both the Nazi and Red
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markets in this scandal.
Not only is Red China using money to corrupt American politicians as the
Nazis did before World War II, it is also using Wall Street to assist
this operation. Famed Nazi-hunter Marty Mendelson is interviewed. He is
mainly responsible for the recent scandal over Nazi gold by proving that
the Swiss still had $2 billion worth of Nazi gold stolen from Jews. He
also tells how he got some of it back to the victims.
This documentary is available exclusively through ShopNetDaily.
http://www.shopnetdaily.com/store/item.asp?ITEM_ID=851
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(5/29/02; 10:31:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 76863)
A Rare Treat! Ask MK, George or Marie to add a few of these to your regular order when you call!
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.
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