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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/29/2002 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Black Blade (04/29/02; 23:50:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 74585) Jews and Muslims? Who Cares? Arm them to the teeth and let them kill each other. If any of them are God's alleged chosen people we would certainly find out wouldn't we? Besides, my Gods (Odin and Thor)told me different while I was drinking copious amounts of ale with Odin and Thor they revealed to me that it is none of the United States business to get involved with any of these murderous scum. - Black Blade BTW, you would have to first assume that we are believers to take a position based on emotion. All I can say as far as the United States is concerned is - "remember the USS Liberty". IGWA (04/29/02; 23:30:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 74584) Jinx 44 Message: 74578 Agree with you 100%. An accurate analysis.Well said! Ag Mountain (04/29/02; 23:09:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 74583) tedw, your friend suffers needlessly and it's his own damned fault If your description of his selling exploits are any indication of his buying techniques, I have one thing to say: If he didn't whore around like that, he'd probably have a real relationship with a single quality gold firm willing to treat him right regardless of whether he's coming OR going. Chalk this up to a repentant voice of experience and don't repeat the mistake.The good news for everybody is that wisdom can come with these experiences, be it your own or the experience of another poor sod. Let this be a lesson to everyone out there. And for what it's worth, as far as precious metals brokerages go, Centennial is probably as good as you'll ever find in a lifetime of trying. So stop chasing skirts all you old dogs out there and dance with the one that's treating you right in more ways than just one.In other words, say Thanks for the great forum and great education! Business is wherever you find it, but GOOD business is always a two-way street. neer-do-well (04/29/02; 23:07:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 74582) PH inLA Glad to see you in print again. Good anaysis of the ME situation by La Rouche, I wasn't aware of all the background but I sure agree with the solution. Trouble is, we got the wrong man (boy) for the job. Good for the POG but little else. LeSin (04/29/02; 22:54:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 74581) "They are Running Scared" or Simply Do Not Understand http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3XMA6PM0D Lex: GoldPublished: April 29 2002 20:02 | Last Updated: April 29 2002 20:05Goldbugs rejoice! The yellow metal hit a two-year high in European trading on Monday, touching $312/ounce before closing at $309.65, up 12 per cent since the start of the year. Over the same period, the FTSE Gold Mines index has risen a staggering 55 per cent. And this on top of substantial gains in 2001. Gold's supporters claim it is recovering its old position as a mainstream asset. They attribute the latest rise to fears about the Middle East, the dollar, oil and inflation. However, this analysis is confused and self-contradictory. It is hard to imagine a recovery that is profitless and inflationary. Anyway, the gold market is too illiquid and inaccessible to be of much use to mainstream investors. There is a more mundane explanation. Since 2001, gold miners have reduced their hedging positions. This trend gained force with Newmont's recent acquisition of Normandy. The reduction of forward sales put upward pressure on prices, reinforced by speculative funds taking long positions of their own. Can this continue? Not much longer. There is a natural cap, as rising prices tempt renewed hedging and central bank sales. Some argue that the spot price should follow mining shares still higher. But mining stocks are geared plays on gold; and much of their gain relates to weakness in the rand and Australian dollar, which makes mines in those countries more profitable whatever the gold price. With gold funds holding net long positions of 4m ounces, a retreat could be messy. Snip-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What Garbage the FT Prints!Cheers "S" Horatio (04/29/02; 22:53:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 74580) Israel The"American"plan to get the Palestineans out of the Christian site is nothing more than a plan to transfer the hatred of the Israel's to the Americans.They will now be seen as responsible for the prosecution of these criminals. Bush first instints were correct to avoid involvement.He is being sucked in. Black Blade (04/29/02; 22:51:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 74579) US oil and gas industry entering long-term recovery http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/web_article_display.cfm?ARTICLE_CATEGORY=TOPST&ARTICLE_ID=142271 Snippit:HOUSTON, Apr. 29 -- Natural gas prices in the US will recover sharply this year. Next year promises to be a very good year for the number of drilling rigs working and for the use of coiled tubing services. Oil and gas supply and demand fundamentals in 2003 should yield replacement-cost pricing for rigs. These are all early signs of a long-term recovery beginning for the oil and gas industry. That was the message delivered by J. Marshall Adkins, managing director of energy research and senior oil field service equity analyst for Raymond James & Associates Inc. (RJA), St. Petersburg, Fla., at the Society of Petroleum Engineers and International Coiled Tubing Association's coiled-tubing conference last week and earlier in the month at IADC's (International Association of Drilling Contractors) 2002 Land Contractors Day in Houston. Adkins said, "The past 8 weeks have seen a huge change in the fundamentals for oil and gas." Referring to natural gas, Adkins said, "The weather has cleaned up the storage overhang that we were worried about a few months ago." He also noted that production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have shown up in the markets, causing inventories to fall dramatically and thus fundamentally supporting higher oil prices. Adkins reported that the oil and gas industry, beginning in 1995-96, has entered a secular upward trend that should last for 10-15 years. He said the outlook is very bullish. "We're still going to have cycles within the secular move, but the upward trend is still very much there," he said.He makes the point, however, that the industry's current situation is closely related to its position in the early 1970s. During 1972-74, the oil field service stock index behaved almost exactly as it has from 1999 through today. The trends are similar. The sharp oil price increase of the 1970s triggered an economic recession, which is the same that happened in 1999 when oil, natural gas, and electricity prices increased sharply at the same time.Adkins said, "Energy has a much greater effect on the economy than people think." For the entire 1970s, oil industry stocks did extremely well at the expense of the rest of the economy. He thinks the same trend might occur over the next 10 years. He predicted that within the next 5 years, there would be a substantial increase in the rig census, like what the industry saw in the late 1970s. In Adkins's view, enhanced technology will yield higher exploration and development success rates. New technologies, notably advances in horizontal and directional drilling, have gained a substantial share of the market. In addition, improved technology has allowed the industry to open access to new areas, such as deep water. Adkins said, however, all of this has had a tangible impact on finding oil and gas, but on the other hand, average well depth has increased 40% in the past 20 years, making the wells more expensive to drill. Considering the sharp rate of decline in field size for new discoveries, Adkins said, most people don't realize the commodity is finite. Putting more rigs to work doesn't necessarily mean industry is going to add a lot of production. In the 1970s, the industry tripled the number of rigs drilling for oil, but production still declined by 35%. Because natural gas depletes faster than oil, even steeper declines will occur for natural gas, according to Adkins. Adkins said, "I don't think there are enough rigs out there that we can throw at this problem to meaningfully change the declines that we're seeing in natural gas production right now." Canada supplied the US with a lot of gas production in mid-2001, which was a function of the drilling they did in the winter of 2000-2001. Adkins said he didn't think that Canada would provide the boost that it had during the past year. Adkins said it is amazing that gas prices are at $3.50/Mcf today, after the warmest winter on record. The unusually warm winter weather reduced demand by 7-8 bcfd. The US would have had a huge problem if the winter weather had been closer to normal. Adkins predicted that increased demand from an improving economy, reduced supply rate due to decline, and a return to more normal and colder winter weather would cause excessive withdrawals from natural gas storage. Gas prices could spike to as high as $10/Mcf and certainly to more than $5/Mcf, in response. Black Blade: Gee Whiz, I could have written this article. He's exactly right. There's another energy crisis on the horizon and we will see higher energy prices going forward. Just as the higher energy prices triggered this economic recession and the fact that nothing has been done to mitigate the fall in hydrocarbon production, we are certainly doomed to repeat the energy crisis we saw last year. I called some friends in Oklahoma City, OK, Houston, TX, and Casper, WY (all industry insiders). I had asked why with NG prices double the average rate did we see so little increase in exploration and production activity. The response was unanimous - they are waiting until prices improve further and remain higher (also to burn off stored inventory). A couple of them said that prices were still too low to justify expenditures should prices retreat. In effect they said that they wanted to hold back on production until prices were much higher. One even told me that they were looking for prices nearer to the $10 Mbtu area that we saw during the last energy price spike in California last year. It looks to me that we are set up for another energy price hike this winter. The data suggests that this could occur and now I suspect that we will see the energy companies just hold off production until prices rise further. Another point that I heard was that they are also waiting until the BLM and EPA get their act together so that they can work to bring on production efficiently without having to "hurry up and wait". It appears that this economic recession will be with us for quite some time. An economic recovery "must" have cheap and abundant energy and with the BLM and EPA in a "pissin match", this recession will be with us for a long time. jinx44 (04/29/02; 22:48:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 74578) Jew Bashers, et al. Whether most here like it or not, Israel is much more an ally than the Muslim nations. Our/my European heritage was formed upon the same theological precepts that Israel is founded upon. The Constitution and Bill of Rights are a secular legal paraphrase of the Laws of The Lord from the Books of Moses. Recent jewish history (last 1000 years) is European history, American history. As a Christian, I pray to the same God, the only God, of the Jews. Muslims, on the other hand, are pagan nations that still practice child and human sacrifice like they did 3000 years ago. They just do it with high explosives these days. Their religion is like marxism, it seeks to overthrow the world by violent death or conversion to their false way. Do you want to give aid and succor to a religion that abuses women and children and chops off heads and hands for preaching God's Word?? Not I, sir. Genesis 16 will explain about the arab nations and their role in the world.Regarding Jenin, the jihaddis were running an armed camp in Jenin. The IDF went in to neutralize the terrorists controlling the camp. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the jihaddis didn't kill a lot of their own people. After all, they like it when their women and children die for their cause. They revel in making martyrs of the very widows and children that our nation would protect. How sick, twisted and pagan is that?? The media falls for it every time.We western Christians abhor that flagrant disrespect for life. If you are not a Christian (born again by His blood), then this will, predictably, sound like foolishness. Tough luck for you if you don't fear the Lord.The muslim nations are not our friends, they do not share our values and heritage, they want the west to crumble under their boot. If you think for a minute that they are tolerant and loving, you have been duped.All nations stray and do wrong, as do their citizens. Israel is the only friend worthy of our help in that whole region, in spite of our political differences. The UN is a corrupt marxist body that feeds on class and religious warfare for power. We are wandering right into their hands if we legitimize ANYTHING they do.'Nuff said. 1Cor2:2 darkhorse (04/29/02; 22:45:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 74577) tedw You can tell your friend he's an idiot! Let's say gold has been at $310/oz for the past five years, and it's expected to stay there for the next five...why would/should he take less than what the current market value is. This obviously doesn't even get into the BS the dealers were putting out. tedw (04/29/02; 22:34:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 74576) Spot A Friend of mine sold some Kruggerands today, 30 or so. 2 of the major dealers in this area are not paying even spot, saying they think this rally is not sustainable. He eventually sold for $302 today. PH in LA (04/29/02; 22:33:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 74575) The Middle East: Making the hard choices! http://www.larouchepub.com/pr_lar/2002/020414clinton_mistake.html Dubya probably thinks he has put to rest the spectacle he made of himself (running to the supreme court to have the vote counting stopped in Florida) by throwing rocks at Afghanistan and making himself look "presidential". Unfortunately, he still has to confront reality and act like a president. But then, whoever said being president was going to be as easy as becoming president?LaRouche Tells Bush: Do Not Repeat Bill Clinton's Mistake!President Bush has but one problem which he must face personally, if he is going to escape successfully from the "lame duck" trap being set for him currently by both the Lieberman- Brzezinski cabal, which is doing just that intentionally, and also the manifest majority among his relevant current advisors, who are doing it out of stupidity.He must dump every consideration but standing before a mirror, to ask himself, "Forget the election-campaign. Do what neither Senator Lieberman or Al Gore would be capable of doing: Think like the kind of President our Constitution implies." Remember President Eisenhower and the Suez Crisis. It would help the President to see his available pathway more clearly, if he would tell Ari Fleischer to dump the current White House line on Bill Clinton's performance.Clinton expressed excellent intentions, but he failed on four leading counts, four counts on which he acted more like a sponsor and lawyer for Ehud Barak's career, than as the President of the U.S.A. First, he entangled himself in Barak's career publicly. Second, when Barak set the President up as a patsy, Clinton swallowed it. To this he added two fatal mistakes which helped to make Ariel Sharon's currently ongoing, Nazi-Warsaw-Ghetto-like operations against the Palestinians possible. First, he evaded the fact that no peace between Israel and Palestine would ever become possible, without a major economic-development program based upon massive desalination and related water development programs. Second, when Chairman Arafat had been ready to sign on the dotted line, so to speak, the President publicly blamed Arafat, rather than Barak, for blowing up the Camp David negotiations, by bringing the issue of redistributing Middle East religious sites, such as Holy Mountain, thus creating the circumstances under which Sharon unleashed the present campaign of religious warfare and radical-right-wing Likud ethnic cleansing policies, into the situation.Clinton's biggest blunder of all, was his fatal error of allowing himself to be put in the position of presiding over a negotiation over Middle East religious sites, thus helping Sharon set the stage for unleashing a form of religious warfare in the Middle East which threatens to enflame most of the world. No inaugurated President of the U.S.A. should ever permit any political or personal pressures to cause him to forget the unique meaning of the words "President of the U.S.A." among the governments of the world. President Eisenhower typifies the quality of President who made a decision of that quality in the matter of the Suez Crisis. A President must put his political career at total risk, if need be, if he must take that risk by making a Presidential, rather than a partisan political or career decision, in any moment in which the nature of the constitutional office of President is a stake. Such a moment, such a decision, hovers before President Bush right now.Our Federal constitutional government is historically unique among the nations of the world. In spite of the several existential crises which our system of self-government has suffered, such as that of 1932-1933, it has never been necessary to disturb the principles of our Constitution, especially as this pertains to our Executive Branch, with its implicit constitutional personal powers and responsibilities of the President. The assurance that this will continue to be the case, depends upon the degree to which the incumbent President, as a person, is able to recognize that it is to that Constitution and its implications, that he must be faithful, above all other possibly conflicting considerations.The President who can say "No. Do not push me to cross this line," even when virtually all his advisors and constituents are pushing him, is a true President, whenever that decision is based on Constitutional considerations inherent in that office. The present Middle East crisis is such a point of decision, one of several most crucial such tests which are now piling up to confront the recently inaugurated President. The United States' most vital strategic and related interests, including the interests of our European partners, requires an immediate historic intervention establishing a just peace in the Middle East, meaning an immediate establishment of the Palestinian State under its currently elected head of government, Arafat. If President Bush makes that decision right now, it will happen, since the President's decision as President will set into motion the other forces, around the world, which would produce that result. Indeed, all things considered, the fate of the planet as a whole could depend upon just such a decision.Admittedly, it has been a long time, perhaps since President Johnson on civil rights, that a U.S. President has acted in a crisis as a true President in the sense of our Constitution. It is time for President Bush to close and bar the doors, while he takes on one or two crucial decisions, working with a handful of the coolest heads from among those around him who are capable of thinking about Presidential crises in a Presidential, rather than partisan way.I think that most Americans would rejoice to think that that is what is about to happen at the White House about now.As for the rest of you, remember this. The office of President of the U.S.A. is the most crucial among our Constitutional institutions. You, as a citizen, must never lose sight of that fact. Whoever happens to be President, the Presidency as an institution must be protected, even against its own tendency for folly. Solomon Weaver (04/29/02; 22:32:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 74574) Jimbo - That which cannot be taken away. JimboYou asked about being safe....with how much paper gold....If it is of any interest to you.....about 85% of this poor old philosophers paper IRA assets are in two companies....one gold and one silver. About 2% in a little satellite company and the rest in cash (which means money markets). It is a very dangerous portfolio since it responds wildly to the PM markets...ie..nice as of late...but I saw worse times.. . . . . . . . There is an old song that I know Frank Sinatra sings and I like the modern version by Diana Krall....."the way you wear your hair, the way you sing off key.....etc. oh they can't take that away from me".....the song is a study in how the personal impression of the object of your love cannot be removed from your heart and the memory cannot be devalued.Pardon me for speaking for "most" on this forum...but I believe that one important thing that all of the regulars here share is that an ounce of gold or silver, struck in the image of a coin, or perhaps a few ounces in a bullion bar can be put carefully in a safe place and will not change in response to "political or economic events"....just like the way your love of old used to smile...the metal is unchanged.One common misperception is that the futures contracts for June Gold somehow influence the "value" of that gold coin in your drawer. To feel "safe" in a gold investment, you must nurture the part of your mind and heart that understand what you have in your drawer is an ounce of gold and the value of that gold is "the value of an ounce of gold"...secondarily, that goldounce may have a certain dollar value on a certain day. If you feel "safe" in this thought, then you will feel safe in physical. You have been trained to measure value in dollars...you have not been trained to measure value in gold ounces, if you were, you would understand how fortunate you are to have the opportunity to earn you wage in the strong dollar and be able to spend little of those dollars to have a gold coin, and you might ponder that such a condition is temporary. If you have not taken the time to read the postings on the Gold Trail......please do....because FOA weaves together a view which is practical and historical.Poor old Solomon Horatio (04/29/02; 22:29:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 74573) Iraq It woulden't surprise me to see Saddam GOADED into making another "make my day" mistake.The last time U.S. Ambassador April Glaspie told him ,we would view an invasion of Kewait as "an Arab problem".Yeah right!!This could be followed by a U.S. invasion and takeover of his oil fields.We then could drop oil prices and flood the market with oil to everyones benefit including Iraq people. The British are currently setting up a Government in Exile in Britan.This plan could be seen as the way to recover from the coming crash in equities and the Dollar.I expect the crash in Aug-Sept time frame.Is he smart enough to avoid the mistake he made last time ?We'll see!!!! Black Blade (04/29/02; 22:08:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 74572) Jimbo Gold Investments You just have to invest in what makes you comfortable. Two of the mining shares that you mentioned (GG and GOLD) are probably among the best as they are unhedged and exposed to the POG. I also have HGMCY for the same reasons. However, as far as percentages are concerned one must determine what they think is likely to occur based on available evidence. Right now, the world of investing does not look very good. I just saw David Tice of the Prudent Bear Fund on CNN Money Line. He mentioned that the stock markets have a long way to go to correct. Valuations are extremely high. He also mentioned that it could take another 3 to 5 years before this "correction" is over. I agree and have been hitting this for some time. I was in Techs/Telecoms/dot.bombs for some time and then I began to bail out in early 2000 as the valuations and talk of "new economies" and "new paradigms" did not match with reality. I switched into energy (actually I started to build up energy in 1998). Through it all I added both cheap Gold mining shares and Physical Gold. I was fortunate to be able to buy Gold at spot with my inside track (I bought many ounces of physical Gold and Silver safety and attendance awards from Nevada miners). I also bought many Gold maple leafs and 10 oz. Silver JM bars as well. Hell, I even bought some Uruguay 5 peso pieces from the castle treasury. My position in Gold alones (both physical and mining shares) is about 40% of my portfolio. Actually I have more physical (about 30%). That is mostly due to rising POG and declining shares in my other investments (other than energy). It comes down to where you feel comfortable. I see that the world has become ever more unstable and most other investments have very little potential now. My physical precious metals are my anchor to the "real world" hard assets (portfolio insurance), my Gold shares are my counter-cyclical investments, my energy shares are mostly current income and based on the ever present need for energy regardless of what happens, and my other investments are well in the toilet. I think that the mistake many make is that they feel that Gold and Silver will be their road to great wealth (and perhaps so), but I prefer to think of my Precious Metals as insurance and as a wealth preservation vehicle, and they can be passed along to heirs tax-free (if you get my drift). Anyway, I have always thought of keeping a store physical first as you would have the ultimate insurance and then later adding shares for the speculative nature of investing. Either way you decide to go, happy investing and good luck. Cheers!- Black BladeSorry about all the rambling (it's the Negra Modelo). Black Blade (04/29/02; 21:41:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 74571) Book Recommendations Since we have brought up the subject of books, I might mention that MK's book the "ABC's of Gold Investing" as a start. We now also have recommendations for "Silver Bulls", "Gold Wars", I would add "Hubbert's Peak", and one that is out of print that I think Randy mentioned once "Green Monday". Turkey hunter: Indeed. I am consuming some delightful nectar of the Gods (Negra Modelo) right now. - Black Blade Sierra Madre (04/29/02; 20:31:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 74570) White HIlls.... You say that "the U.N. is not a friend to Israel."Pray tell, why should they be?Except for most Jews, very, very few people love Israel. That's a fact. Sharon has given Dubya "the finger" or didn't you notice? The Jews are always complaining about persecution, but when you see how they are behaving in Palestine, it makes you wonder how it could be otherwise. The Jews have knack for instigating persecution against themselves. Thousands upon thousands of others have said this, before me. Is there going to be a Palestinian Holocaust Museum funded with U.S. taxpayer money? Not bloody likely!This latest Zionist adventure is likely to devolve into World War III, and it won't be pretty. We have forgotten what war looks like - on one's OWN SOIL. Plenty of T.V. and videos about mayhem of war, on OTHER PEOPLE'S LAND.As BB says, stock up on gold, silver, food, water, etc.Big, big events are around the corner for May, I suspect.Sierra Trurl (04/29/02; 20:03:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 74569) WOW! Thank you CPM! I was a recent contest winner of "the other white metal".I was very pleasantly suprised to have received this today. In over two decades, this is the fastest I've ever got PMs in the mail; and I didn't have to pay for it.Also, Thanks and complements to MK and Jill: I can see they know how to correctly package things. Unlike some horror stories I have from, err, other places.Since I'm on a roll, I suggest we have a posting handle contest. *That* is a contest I could win the gold in!What, you've never heard of Trurl? turkey hunter (04/29/02; 19:31:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 74568) @ R Powell Gold Wars Hello. Looks like the book "Gold Wars" was released in February 2002. I went over to Amazon.com to see if anyone has reviewed it. So far no one has. It also must be the first book by the author; no other books were listed by him. Someone is waiting to buy a used one is that you? :) I went over to Amazon.com UK and still no one has reviewed it but someone did have a used one to sell. Blacklade: That Negra Modelo is good stuff. Finally found some to try. sourdough (04/29/02; 19:16:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 74566) Where will the money go? With this type of editorial not to the U.S. http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/ April 30, 2002EDITORIALDanger signs for US dollar THE US dollar is widely perceived to be overvalued, its vulnerability highlighted not only by a sudden decline against the euro and the yen but also by gold's recent rise by more than 10 per cent in dollar terms. This is being attributed to the size of the US current account deficit, and to fears that recovery by the world's largest economy from a shallow recession may prove to be equally shallow. But there are more fundamental reasons for fearing a dollar debacle. It is bad enough that the US should run a huge external deficit - meaning that it is critically dependent upon the outside world to finance its excess private consumption; but when the government budget also plunges into deficit and Washington embarks upon military spending that seems likely to push America's twin deficits to intolerable levels, then it becomes cause for real alarm. What is worse, this strategy threatens to undermine that very stability in oil prices which has underpinned US prosperity for nearly two decades. A sustained hike in oil prices - made even more likely since Washington has antagonised Middle East producers by its policies towards Israel - also threatens the global economy. If the US has appeared invulnerable on a military level, its soft underbelly is being exposed now by developments in the foreign exchange market and in the oil market. Both the IMF and the OECD have issued unusually explicit warnings about the dangers of a 'disorderly' correction in the record US current account deficit, but US officials have been inclined to dismiss these.It is doubtful, however, whether they can afford to ignore the danger signals flashing in financial markets. The dollar has long been viewed as a safe haven - safer than gold even - because the US economy was previously perceived to have entered a virtuous circle of rising productivity and expanding economic growth. Good fiscal management under the Clinton administration produced a substantial budget surplus and added to the justification for a strong dollar. If the US ran a large external deficit, this was simply because the outside world was willing to finance it by investing eagerly in Treasury bonds and on Wall Street. How different things look now.The US current account deficit is expected to rise above 4 per cent of GDP in 2002 (to US$470 billion) and to reach 5per cent next year. Such a position cannot be sustained for long, even by a country that's able to print money and have it universally accepted as the world's principal reserve currency. The Congressional Budget Office had estimated a deficit of US$46 billion in fiscal 2002 but tax receipts are already running US$40 billion below projections, and this could push the projected deficit even higher. Congress is also considering a US$27 billion supplemental spending bill; though only part of it would be spent in this fiscal year, the overall deficit could rise above US$100 billion - compared with a US$127 billion surplus in fiscal 2001.Slower spendingThe US depends upon foreign investors to fund its twin deficits; but the risk of the deficits going unfunded is rising. At the very least, the US might be forced to raise interest rates in order to continue attracting investments. The fact that the US economy grew at an annualised rate of 5.8 per cent in the first quarter is little cause for comfort since that growth was against a very depressed fourth quarter of 2001. Consumer confidence and spending have slowed and expectations of a robust recovery in corporate profits have waned. This raises the prospect of a retreat from US equities just when the government bond market is also vulnerable. A government which apparently believes it can go it alone on military issues may be given a salutary warning of its dependence upon its allies to finance that strategy. SINGAPORE Business Times White Hills (04/29/02; 19:15:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 74565) Canuck One good reason that Israel has for being reluctant to let the UN IN TO JENIN IS THE MAKE UP OF THE PEOPLE THAT WILL DO THE INVESTIGATION. I am sure they are worried that they will have trumped up charges and even try to pull a SERBIA on them and charge Sharon with WAR CRIMES. It Worked before. The UN is not a friend to Israel. White Hills Canuck (04/29/02; 18:51:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 74564) @ Jimbo Very simple my man; supply and demand.As the price of a product lowers to meet it's 'all-in-costs' to produce, the weak producers disappear thus decreasing supply. As supply-demand balances distort, prices increase to reach equilibrium. If it costs a dollar to make, market and distribute a hamburger you won't find anyone out there selling it for less (at least for long).The 'gold-game' can be won on the supply side and/or the demand side. After years of the 'all-in-costs' of some $275-350 the supply numbers are in our favour (ie: mine closure). With the smouldering paper-fire (ie: negative ROI), demand is also in our favour.The gold game will begin and end with fundamental supply-demand statistics. The paper game is a mirage.The following is somewhat speculative:The bonus in all of this will be the a)evitable scramble to cover short positions as the EXIT door begins to closeb)the mountain of 'cash' and equivalents that are waiting for the next run.The entire market cap of all gold companies in the world is less than McDonalds. The 'cash' holders are pleading for the next momentum run. Raise the POG to $400 and double all gold stocks and THEY WILL COME, in hoards. I envision 4 digit gold and ten-bagger stocks moments after 'they come'. This will not be a linear run-up. When TSHTF, passing thru 360/380/400 will be blinding. As paper ignites from the decade long smoldering it will go fast. Check out the Saudi-Iran post today supplied by cananami. Remember the Arab summit a few weeks ago, "an attack of one Arab state will be viewed as an attack of all". These guys are pissed, large. The vacuuming up of bodies in Israel is not going over well. The Headlines boast of "Israeli-Palestine deal cut". Oil went up half a dollar in this joyous celebration. Israel won't let anyone into Jenin, I wonder why? And they are really pleased that Powell showed up late to the party. Did you see Arafat glaring at Powell in that one clip?A couple more grand deals like the latest and we will see $30/bbl. I have hedged some of my money into oil. The escalating war front warrants some money into oil, yes? The hedge is in case the economy bounces back. So the only bad news for oil is no war and no bounce; the hedge in that is the USD will fall off a cliff and we know the answer for that, yes!Ya see Jimbo, the world has gone to hell in a handbasket. The paper world is unravelling quicker than a cheap suit. I leave you with a final thought. With the masses piled into short rates how are they going to squeeze out any sort of profit with rising interest rates? This is the theory of likes like Noland and Puplava. So if the US cannot raise rates anytime soon where are people going to plant their money? Did you notice the 6% beating the consumer sub-index took today? The proverbial "watch what the market is doing, not what they are saying" is the order of the day. The USD is on very shaky ground.The debt-trap is set, damned if you do and damned if you don't. Not investment advice, just the subjective ramblings of a guy in the same boots as you. R Powell (04/29/02; 18:14:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 74563) CoBra(too) // Gold Wars I finished your friend's "Silver Bulls" over this part weekend. It is excellent. I'm now thinking that, once again, the accepted historical view of the whole 1979-1980 silver bull market is that version promoted by the shorts and market regulators who cried wolf and convinced themselves that there really was a wolf at the door. Losers don't write the history. If silver went to $50/ounce, 22 years ago without any real squeeze or overwhelming (or even unusual) call for delivery at all, what are the dollar limits this time? How little is left compared to the larger supply of that day!? GATA has recommended another book called "Gold Wars" by a retired banker named Ferdinand Lips who resides near Zurich. I gave a link to this earlier (74535). I thought perhaps you might be familar with the book and/or author? Has anyone read this one yet? Thoughts? Thanks, Rich YGM (04/29/02; 17:57:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 74562) First Japanese Banks, Then China's Banks....EXTREMELY SIGNIFICANT http://www.newaus.com.au/aatemp336taipei.html --AND WITH OBVIOUS IMPLICATIONS FOR PHYSICAL GOLD ABOVE AND BEYOND THE NEWLY FORMING CHINESE GOLD MARKETS------YGM.Excerpt--The economic rot, though, is much wider. The mainland banking system is crisis-ridden and corrupt. In an open political system, it would in all probability have collapsed by now, considering that half to two-thirds of all bank loans are nonperforming and growing. High-level linkages between the perpetrators of such fraud, however, result in disinterested investigations. According to the Far Eastern Economic Review, "China Construction Bank has been involved in financing the information-technology business activities of President Jiang Zemin's eldest son." Still, banks like these control US$900 billion in individual savings. If people knew what was going on, there would be an instant run on the banks, which would bring the Chinese economy to a halt. --More @ Link-- timbervision (04/29/02; 16:46:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 74561) Jimbo Jimbo, you said that you had bought gold funds and stocks. The ultimate safety, and potential for meaningful gain will be in physical gold. Funds and stocks are mostly paper gold and will not share in the rise of value of physical gold when the "proverbial something hits the whatever." (SHTF) TownCrier (04/29/02; 16:21:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 74560) Fighting for the dollar tooth and nail now... http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/020429/economy_treasury_forex_1.html I remember when I first heard SecTreas O'Neill mention this a year ago. I didn't laugh then, but I'm laughing now...in the context of the dollar's war on the euro and the rest of the currency world.Derivatives. You gotta luv 'em!!Here's the plum from the article linked above:HEADLINE: O'Neill won't sing new forex tune at hearing------O'Neill has said in the past that companies can use tactics to hedge against changes in currency values ......... O'Neill is slated to testify before the Senate Banking Committee on [...] foreign exchange and international economic policies. Also at the meeting will be representatives of U.S. manufacturers, who argue that the dollar is overvalued on foreign exchange markets and is hurting their ability to compete overseas.-----------Now, I probably don't need to tell anyone this, but what the SecTreas is in effect telling American corporations to do is, in layman's terms, to short sell on (an ever continuing and increasing basis(??)) the national currencies of their target export destinations. Then, the American companies are to use the profits from this derivative activity in order to subsidize the export selling of American-made goods at prices specially slashed below the natural profit margin given the relative high cost of production.Taking the long view of this:Hey Belgian, ol' buddy. I guess this means that we'd be able to buy the very same GoodYear tires that were manufactured in my hometown more cheaply (with $s) in your euroland neighborhood than I'd be able to buy them here in my own backyard.Seemingly, all of this "Government-blessed" shorting activity by our companies against your euro will just add more pressure to spiral the problem of "strong dollars"... but never fear! We'll just have our exporting companies increase their forex derivative/hedging activity, and they'll all be more than compensated with forex profits to underwrite their ever-cheaper export prices as necessary. In fact, with all of these forex profits, why bother with the dirty business of manufacturing and exporting at all?!Perhaps in the course of time we'll just buy everything that you make, and, in place of exports (to maintain some semblence of trade legitimacy), we'd sell some of it back to you. And in this way, we could do it without the overseas shipping costs incurred under the old business model. See? We're saving you money already! The strong dollar can be good for everyone!Sigh. The pathos...R. Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2") (04/29/02; 16:20:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 74559) Jimbo: the Indians only shoot arrows at those who stand outside the fort. You already answered your main question, What is the downside risk? People are nearly brainwashed from their exposure to old "set modes of thinking" types. The herd always ends up running over the cliff. Our first ancestors learned this ........."lets start a stampede.......we'll guide the herd through a certain valley that opens up to a steep cliff.......then when the animals are slaughtered by their own stupidity, we'll go down and have a feast. And the great thing is that WE don't get hurt." Financially this is exactly what the media trolls are, they are the sticks that guide the herd to the slaughter. Your first victory was to begin thinking for yourself. The cost of being a maverick is ridicule and rejection. "To gain acceptance with us, you must agree with the investments we made in beatup paper stocks with lying accountants." "If you won't agree with us we cannot be your friend because your presence in the room says we are all idiots." This is what you face, the wrath of the paper-pushers or the eventual destruction of your portfolio. Do you want to retire with a bicycle and a bag of groceries? So keep up the fight for the truth in your mind. The devil is always trying to steal truth out of our lives by talking through liars who seem to have their act together, but they only have short range thinking. Gold is honest money. Who funded the honeymoon of Mary and Joseph? And with what? The wise men brought GOLD. The wise men still keep gold. Vietnamese refugees who had no gold are still over there. The ones who had gold, used it to buy their way to freedom. Ask a Vietnamese man over 50 of how they got out. Ask some Chinese people over 60 how they escaped to Taiwan, with what. Ask yourself what is more valuable than gold, and you may find out why those people were willing to part with their gold. With a pair of scissors they cut a thin strip off the edge of a tael sheet of gold used to pay off border guards.Close your mind to the voice of the insane, those who have rejected ancient truth to wallow in the mire of self chosen derision. Because they have rejected truth they cannot recieve wisdom. Fools despise wisdom and instruction. They say "WE KNOW" so they can no longer learn. Good day in GOLD -GR2 TownCrier (04/29/02; 14:56:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 74558) Updated weekly gold commentary from WGC Rhonna O'Connell http://www.usagold.com/wgc.html Excerpts:...Dubai is launching an initiative to develop its market share in the trading of gold, diamonds and other key commodities. The expressed intention is to try to lift its gold trading market share from the current locally estimated 10% of total, to 50%. To this end, His Highness General Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Crown Prince of Dubai and Defence Minister of the UAE, yesterday announced the establishment of the Dubai Metals and Commodities Centre (DMCC)....The People's Bank of China has today [April 26] implemented an unscheduled gold fixing, raising the price by two yuan per gram, or 1.48%....Japan's imports of gold in March were almost six times higher than in March 2001, at 13.18 tonnes. WGC estimates that investor demand in the quarter reached 47.5t, the highest since the second quarter of 1995, which followed the Kobe earthquake and the terrorist attack on Tokyo. Imports for the quarter reached 77.1t, a gain of 15% over the previous year.------(click URL for more, including year-to-date gold graph in dollars, yen, and euro)------Speaking of Japan, despite the Japanese trading holiday today, gold prices held up quite well even after last week's move toward higher ground. Strong legs...R. Pizz (04/29/02; 14:46:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 74557) Jimbo Here's a few questions to put to your skeptics (it's what I do and it works):"What is there more of in the world? Dollars or Gold?""What's increasing faster, new dollar supply or new mine supply of gold.?""What's easier to do? Print money or mine gold?""Is there a paper shortage anywhere that I have not been made aware of?" (I usually smile when I ask this one.)Now, long term, just how can the dollar price of gold go anywhere but UP?Stick to you're plan, your on the right track.Pizz Boilermaker (04/29/02; 14:44:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 74556) Abbey Joe "Madame" Abby used to run a first rate whorehouse. Her "stock" is getting old and tired but she's still pushing the same "ladies". Pretty soon the "Johns" will put their money in the beauty of the ages. TownCrier (04/29/02; 14:39:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 74555) Snapshot of markets as Wall Street was wrapping up today's trading... http://www.usagold.com/mkpics/forum/ino29apr02.gif (click link to quotes)As you'll see from this snapshot of the INO graphic taken about 10 minuts ago, only gold was up.The dollar was down, bonds were down, S&P 500 was down, Nasdaq was down, and even the CRB(!!!) was down.More of this general breakaway (of gold from everything, including other commodities) can be expected "if"/when indeed the freemarket gold scenario comes about fully-fledged as several here have foretold. The nice consequence of such a thing is the pleasant effect that your gold-as-insurance plays a double role -- also providing handsome capital gains.Of course, if you never bring yourself to own the stuff, these particular benefits of security and gains will not be yours to enjoy. The initiative remains yours to take, although there are people who will help along the way. Give them a call.R. canamami (04/29/02; 14:36:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 74554) Saudi-Iranian (oil) alliance http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/comment-sieff042602.asp April 26, 2002, 8:45 a.m.The Saudi-Iranian AllianceUnited by oil.By Martin Sieff Saudi Arabia and Iran are regional rivals whose traditional approach to the Israel-Palestinian conflict has been diametrically opposite. But now they are moving closer together on that and other issues, with probable immense consequences for the United States and the entire world. R Powell (04/29/02; 14:14:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 74553) Black Blade Did I hear you mention Wall Street Pimps? One of the better known made a year end prediction of Dow 11,300 and S+P 1300 today on the peoples stock picking television channel. Yep, the one and only Abbey-Joe! She was Louie's first guest analyst on his re-located Friday night special. Rich Sierra Madre (04/29/02; 14:09:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 74552) GoldnSilver 2002 OK, OK, OK already!You win, I'm sure you're right, gold's goin' to da mooooon!But, don't get upset if it doesn't. It has a habit of "letting us down" and that is what the manipulators are counting on, to discourage the whole world from buying the yellow metal. Their fight is NOT over. Expect setbacks.The trend is our friend and the trend is UP. But there may (will) be bumps along the road.Sierra TownCrier (04/29/02; 14:04:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 74551) Jimbo -- a good opportunity to get acquainted http://www.usagold.com/sitemap.html Welcome to the forum. Cutting to the chase, to help you get a more balanced view of things you might simply want to pick up the phone and discuss these important investment matters with MK (Mike Kosares) or George Cooper at Centennial headquarters. Toll Free (800) 869-5115. This is what they do for a living, and MK's been giving good advice in this business for 30 years. Again, the emphasis here is to get a **balanced** perspective -- you've already gotten an earful from your advisor who sounds like he comes to the table loaded with the investment sector's traditional "new era" anti-gold biases.In the interests of developing a well-structured portfolio, you (and everybody else, for that matter) owe it to yourself to learn more about the big picture as it includes gold.A phone call can be quick and easy, but you can also learn a lot through the many bright posters here and from many of the pages within this USAGOLD website. I would like to draw your attention to MK's difinitive book, 'The ABCs of Gold Investing', to the posts in our 'Hall of Fame', and also the wealth of solid commentary in our 'Gilded Opinion' section. Links to these and others can all be found near the top of this discussion forum page. Best wishes!R. Black Blade (04/29/02; 13:56:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 74550) Bad Day On Wall Street I see that oil is up 46 cents to $27.57/bbl and NatGas is up 19 cents to $3.56 Mbtu. This has to take a toll on the US economy. Also note that the market indices are falling off again. Last week the DOW dropped about 350 points. So far today the DOW is off nearly 90 points, the NASDAQ is off 12 points and the S&P 500 is off 11 nearly points. This sickly economy is destined to get mush worse. I see that the Wall Street Pimps are all smiles and touting that all is well and that the economy is improving HUH? Truly the blind leading the blind. - Black Blade R Powell (04/29/02; 13:53:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 74549) Jimbo I'll bet your financial advisor reads either the Wall Street Journal or the Investor's Business Daily (IBD) every day. Ask him to look at the "leading sector" section of the IBD. Most stocks are grouped into different sectors, retail stocks, drugs, financial, manufacturing, entertainment, etc. Precious metals mining is one of these sectors which are listed daily. Check out the year-to-date numbers and perhaps last year's numbers. There are a few other reasons why gold, silver and mining stocks might prove to be profitable investments. I'd suggest that some of these may be found here in the daily reports and the archives. Our host also publishes quarterly "News and Views" information. It can be accessed here and is just what you're looking for. Have fun. Rich P.S. I don't want to seem pompous but I'd suggest that you ask your advisor for his reasons why precious metals and their producers are not worthy holdings. Please give us his specific reasons and perhaps we can give you specific referenced articles to print out and return to him. Hopefully, you'll study them first. It's your money, no? If it were mine, I'd want to learn all I could about where it is invested. Will you be surprised if, after some diligient study, your knowledge dwarfs that of your advisor?? He/she won't like or encourage that. It ought to be fun! Graefin (04/29/02; 13:52:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 74548) Jimbo... What goes up must also come down...no matter what you invest in. But look at where the world economy is. Uncertainty with war, oil, accounting practices (which all of us know is called "creative accounting" and everyone does it)...then look at the floating market the "ever clever American" has created for himself. No longer pegged to gold or silver, all other currencies are pegged to the dollar. How convenient. Throughout world history, this is the only era where gold was not the standard to which a currency was pegged. And what happens when the economies of the world go to h*** in a handbasket? Is Argentina a fair example?? If it smells like a goat and it looks like a goat, why are you surprised when it acts like a goat?? Peace!- Grδfin Black Blade (04/29/02; 13:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 74547) Re: Jimbo - One More Thing BTW, What "Big Drop" today? I see that the POG is off by 60 cents. Also, Gold has not precipitously dropped since 1980. The POG has dropped sharply in 1996 due the a combination of the Gold Carry Trade, the loose monetary policy adopted by the Fed, Gold Hedging, and the Bre-X scam. It is true that Gold spiked to $850/oz. Due to a combination of runaway inflation, the Russian invasion of Afghanistan, and the overthrow of the Shah of Iran (a friend to the West and a major supplier of oil). That was a one time effect where Gold performed just as is should have in an economic crisis. After these crises reversed, the POG settled into a range of $380 to $420 an ounce until late 1996. The Gold Bear Market since 1980 is a fallacy that is perpetuated by Keynesian (or even John Law) economists. Notice that today even on CNBC they refer to Gold as a "flight to quality". Cheers!- Black Blade Black Blade (04/29/02; 13:37:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 74546) Re: Jimbo Why don't you ask your investment advisor how much he's made in the market over the last couple of years? Then ask him: When will the economy turn around? If he answers that he has lost money since the market pulled back and he doesn't know when the economy will improve, then tell him to find another career as he isn't much good at his present one. The point to remember is that Gold is an insurance policy exactly for when there is economic uncertainty. People buy insurance for their homes, their lives, their autos, their health, etc. so why not insurance for your economic health and for diversification? I have absolutely no sympathy for those "Grasshoppers" who end up like the Argentines if they take no personal responsibility for themselves and their families well being. Living on a hope and a prayer that all will be well forever - that's just being irresponsible. Cheers!- Black Blade Jimbo (04/29/02; 13:17:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 74545) What's the downside This is my first post and I'd appreciate some feedback. I've been investing in gold stocks and funds for two months and have seen good results. But my financial advisor, buddies and family think I'm nuts. They warn me that gold is "too volatile" and predict I'll lose my shirt. My advisor reminds me frequently about gold's precipitous drop in 1980. Of course, he pointed out that gold had a big drop today and warned me that when the economy turns around, "gold's value will diminish quickly." I think I've made a smart investment in gold. But my advisor's gloomy picture makes me wonder. Can someone provide valid arguments that will help me defend my position? Thanks. Henri (04/29/02; 13:04:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 74544) GATA reco ordered the Lips book today...looking forward to reading it. GoldnSilver2002 (04/29/02; 12:00:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 74543) In Gold's favour...Nature and history Of course Sierra Madre,Gold may have some retracement but it wont be to 298 per oz.There are no simply too many factors in golds favour.Flaky Japanese banks,terrorism,record debt levels(public and private),rising oil prices,Argentina,Venezuala,Global warming,fed money printing(inflation),Gold suppression(the longer something is held down,the more radically it rebounds),middle east tensions,a shaky stock market,growing world population,china(opening a gold exchange),holes in the ozone layer,dieing fish and forests,enron,iraq,columbia,phillipines.JUst as rome found out its expensive being the worlds policeman and i could go on.What is my point?None of these things will go away and in time they will worsen putting more pressure on the world markets and blowing under gold ,the ultimate safe haven as it always has been throughout history.I know a lot of people would like to beleive these things happen all the time and will go away,but they wont!The snowball is rolling and gaining momentum,heaven forbid we should have a major earhtquake in california!No my friend,you cant fool nature and history is on golds side even if the american media isnt.Did you hear their latest recoomendation?Enron "buy and hold!" gold: "a barbaric relic".Yes it is and its survived all the attempts of man to control it,time after time after time.The cabal is scared and retreating while still hoping to hide gold from the u.s public,the problem is other countries do matter and the u.s isnt the center of the universe...even rome shall pass! 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