USAGOLD Gold Discussion Forum Archive

USAGOLD Menu BAR

Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...

(Discussion Forum Hall of Fame)

(The Gold Trail)

("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)

The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

FORUM ARCHIVES

Select date of the archive you wish to view

Month Day Year
Archives date back to September 22, 1998

WELCOME TO THE ARCHIVES!

(View Today's Discussion) (View Previous Day's Discussion) (View Next Day's Discussion)

ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/29/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

tedw (11/29/01; 23:25:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 66117)
Call me cynical

In addition to Phil Gramms wife being on the board of directors of Enron, there are also 3 prominent Texans.
Call me cynical but this is the "too big to fail syndrome" and I suspect the connections are sufficient to engineer another government bailout.

But I hope Im wrong.

Black Blade (11/29/01; 23:16:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 66116)
Congress, SEC launch probe of Enron problems
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011129/n29284771_1.html

Snippit:

WASHINGTON, Nov 29 (Reuters) - The U.S. Congress announced two probes on Thursday of Enron Corp.'s (NYSE:ENE) financial collapse as Wall Street's top regulator said his agency would investigate the energy giant ``thoroughly but quickly.'' Enron, which dominates U.S. natural gas and electricity markets, was widely expected to see protection under federal bankruptcy laws after rival Dynegy Inc.(NYSE:DYN) on Wednesday pulled out of a deal to buy it.

The Republican-led House Energy and Commerce Committee said it would investigate Enron's accounting practices, while its Democrat-controlled Senate counterpart announced it would assess the impact on U.S. natural gas and electricity markets. Rep. Billy Tauzin, the Louisiana Republican who heads the House energy panel, said lawmakers would investigate the surprisingly swift downfall of Enron. The global giant employs 21,000 people in operations ranging from marketing electricity and natural gas to delivering commodities such as natural gas, coal, pulp and paper. "The chairman has instructed staff counsel to begin investigating Enron's collapse with the expectation of holding a congressional hearing in the near future,'' a Tauzin spokesman said.

The ranking Democrat on the House panel, Michigan Rep. John Dingell, has repeatedly called for a probe of the accounting firm Arthur Andersen LP that handled Enron's books. The accounting firm, which audited Enron's books, has already been sued in several lawsuits filed by Enron shareholders. Dingell on Thursday berated regulators like the Securities and Exchange Commission for not spotting Enron's troubles early. Current U.S. corporate accounting standards are ``seriously broken,'' Dingell said in a statement. ``There are likely other ticking time bombs out there with smoke-and-mirror earnings.''

Black Blade: Everyone wants a piece of Enron now. "Interesting Times"

Black Blade (11/29/01; 23:04:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 66115)
Enron Scurries to File for Chapter 11, Avoid Liquidation
http://www.quicken.com/investments/news/story/djbn/?story=/news/stories/dj/20011130/ON20011130000008.htm&symbol=ENE

Snippit:

Enron Corp. and its lawyers worked feverishly yesterday to prepare a Chapter 11 bankruptcy-court filing in hopes of enabling the troubled energy trading concern to reduce its heavy debt burden and emerge as a smaller but profitable company. But, given the rapid deterioration of its business and the complexity of its finances, it remains unclear whether this can be accomplished. The alternative, bankruptcy lawyers and corporate restructuring experts say, would be effectively to liquidate the company by selling its various operations in pieces to satisfy creditors.

"I think it's too early to tell" whether a successful reorganization can be mounted, said one banker who has spoken to company officials. Under Chapter 11, an insolvent company typically reduces its debt so it can emerge from bankruptcy-court proceedings as a viable business. To do this, creditors often receive stock in lieu of part of their debt.

Enron, which has a global energy business and a major energy-trading operation, has been forced to the brink of a bankruptcy-court filing after the disclosure recently of mounting losses. Its planned merger with Dynegy Inc. was scuttled Wednesday after credit-rating agencies downgraded a major portion of the company's debt to "junk" status. Its energy trading ground almost to a halt as a result, because trading partners became worried that Enron no longer had the financial wherewithal to back its trading positions.

Enron's debt is considerable. Bankers involved in the restructuring discussions at Enron estimate total liabilities of $40 billion, including $13 billion in debt on its balance sheet -- $4 billion owed to banks and $9 billion owed to bondholders. The other $27 billion in liabilities include off-balance- sheet transactions, including another $3 billion in bank loans and $7 billion in bonds, these bankers said. That leaves another $17 billion in other kinds of complex transactions, including energy-market derivatives, letters of credit and other kinds of debt instruments.

Black Blade: CNBC continues to emphasize the derivative exposure is in excess of $1 Trillion. Enron's layers continue to burn the midnight oil as this release just came out about 45 minutes ago. It should be "Interesting" tomorrow.

Black Blade (11/29/01; 22:53:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 66114)
RE: USAGOLD

I understand that JPM is holding a $47 Trillion dollar derivative exposure. They are supposed to be perhaps the major lender to Enron. How much they are on the hook for if Enron has all legs pointing skyward tomorrow I don't know. They will be in line to pick over Enron's corpse along with all the other creditors. I have some other info on some of the other banks derivatives exposure in my office. I will try to look into it tomorrow night. There is extreme exposure in regard to investment bank derivatives. If Enron triggers a chain of events, I suspect that we could see and hear a lot of pain among the bankers. I would also expect to see the government get involved in some sort of bail out similar to Daddy Bush's S&L bailout, for "the good of the economy."

I know of three guys in a partnership that recently bought a couple of drill rigs and refurbished them. They are on the hook for a nice chunk of change. Unfortunately these guys have other businesses that they used for collateral. Drilling activity is slowing for the winter and they are hoping and praying that they will stay busy to cover their costs. One rig is working and the other is idle, so they are just getting by. If they shut down the bank will not cut them any slack. I never heard of any small or medium sized drilling business getting unsecured loans. I can't speak for the few remaining major drillers like Nabors, Global Marine, TransOcean, Diamond Offshore, etc. though. The petroleum business is really cut throat.

BTW, tonight the market cap of Enron is $267 million. OUCH! From $89.00 a share to $0.36 a share. This is certainly not anywhere near the $500 million plus in unsecured loans. These loans won't get covered as there are others with more substantial claims at the front of the line. Just a few weeks ago Enron was number 7 ahead of IBM in revenue. This is a really big story. It has the potential to devastate the Global economy.

Cheers!

- Black Blade

Solomon Weaver (11/29/01; 22:53:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 66113)
Hot off the press from Franklin Sanders...
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sanders/sanders112901.html
Starts with this quote....

"The whole extraordinary depreciation of the mark has naturally created a rapidly increasing demand for additional currency, which the Reichsbank has not always been fully able to satisfy. But these enormous sums [printed] are barely adequate to cover the vastly increased demand for the means of payment, which has just recently attained an absolutely fantastic [nominal] level ***" --Dr. Rudolf Havenstein, Reichsbank President, August, 1923, quoted in When Money Dies by Adam Ferguson, p. 173; London: Wm. Kimber & Co., Ltd, 1975."

suggested reading for the contest

Poor old Solomon

wiley (11/29/01; 22:47:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 66112)
Price guess
$$$$$$276.60$$$$$$

goldquest (11/29/01; 22:37:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 66111)
Enron Probe
http://www.enron.com
Do not expect the U S Congress to do much investigating. Senator Phil Gramm's wife Wendy, is on the board of directors of Enron.

USAGOLD (11/29/01; 22:20:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 66110)
Black Blade. . .
You know what caught my interest today? All the "unsecured" loans out to Enron. Looked to me like $500 million or so based on the short list they showed on CNBC. What do you make of that? How does a bank management committee allow anyone to make $500 million in unsecured loans?

What do you make of it, Black Blade? Any of your drilling buddies ever get a nice big unsecured loan to put some holes in the ground?

I'd like to know the dates on those loans because I think someone (or some group) smelled this rat long before anyone else did.

Black Blade (11/29/01; 22:15:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 66109)
Correction - Enron Insolvency

Ooops! That should be "This is going to be several times bigger than the LTCM (Long Term Capital Management)debacle that will ripple tidal wave after tidal wave through out the economy."

Dyslexic typing ya know. LTCM was small potatoes compared to what is coming next.

Black Blade (11/29/01; 22:08:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 66108)
Enron To Be Declared Insolvent and Trading Halted

So far I only heard that CNBC has declared Enron insolvent and shares are now worthless. I also heard the same from at least three other sources. It is possible that as early as tomorrow we shall hear the loud boom of the other shoe dropping as trading is suspended and the worker bees leave the hive. I am still looking for more info, however, it appears that Enron got their tit caught in a wringer over several variations of exotic commodities derivatives including the obscure weather derivatives, carbon credit trades, base metals derivatives, and even possibly even PM derivatives. The story become more convoluted day by day. Now Congress announces that there will be an official probe of Enron. This is going to be several times bigger than the LMTC debacle that will ripple tidal wave after tidal wave through out the economy. I do suspect that the US Government will attempt a bailout. After all, Enron CEO is a close personal friend of Sonny Bush and Dick Cheney. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

uponroof (11/29/01; 22:08:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 66107)
USAGOLD
USAGOLD said:

"...What we are in the midst of is a "systemic failure" and the system that is failing is the one that is supposed to keep market manipulators from crushing the rest of us and the economy with us..."

Sir, your post is very much appreciated. System regulation is needed, but with teeth. I suspect, as usual, there are enough rules on the books, if they'd only enforce them.

The speed limit on the PA Turnpike is 65. However, if you are not doing at least 75 you run the risk of causing an accident. 90% of the population breaks speed limit rules. No teeth. Speed is a drug meant to satisfy instant gratification. Whether your going fast in a car to get somewhere sooner, or going fast with derivatives to get rich quicker, it's a drug and the entire American society, perhaps world, is hooked (I plead guilty).

This ingrained agressive (speed) mentality bears the signature of the American financial system. It is this difference which separates it from other societies and markets. It is this same agressiveness which has kept it on top for so long. But, if this signature becomes attached to more and more derivative failures it may just isolate the almighty American financial system and dollar to risky status.

There are flashing lights in the rear view mirror. You can smell their fear. We shall see.

Thanks again for all your efforts.

Horatio (11/29/01; 22:06:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 66106)
The Brits and the Euro
Whats keeping the Brits out of the Euro ?
It makes them crazy to think the Germans with thier aversion to debt and inflation are in control !
The Brits know the Dollar is going down ,and wish they could do something ,they and the Rothchilds with thier fiat paper have no where to turn so they will probably stay with the Pound or Dollar,at least devalueing is still an option .
The Rothchilds and thier kind are about to reap thier windfall,its called FORCLOSURE.This is where they exchange thier paper and credits they created out of thin air for real Tangable Assets.And now you know the rest of the story.

sector (11/29/01; 22:02:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 66105)
Enron was "Company Specific"...CNBC
As we hear from CNBC that Enron was only company specific, recall that they were listed in the top 10 revenue generating corporations in the United States...along side IBM, EXXON and the other multinationals.

Irradiating 21,000 jobs, fouling a trillion dollars in trades and trashing a top ten American firm in one week is not a trivial accomplishment. Mr. Greenspan, the person who pleaded against derivatives regulation can no longer escape culpability since derivatives will be the Enron scapegoat. The aggrieved employees will become an organized, enraged mass of very angry people with very little left to lose.

The reason we have not heard a spin on Enron's derivatives is that there IS nothing spinable about the Enron 25 somethings and their casino boiler room antics or the Fed's complicity in looking the other way. The Fed defended derivatives. The Chairman defended derivatives. And now derivatives have wiped out Enron...our tenth largest corporation. This issue will finally block Greenspan's efforts to escape responsibility...to evade embarrassment...to be confronted with his failures. Like Bin Laden, Greenspan's has NO EXIT. We should watch the other Fed governors...especially Lawrence Meyer. The tip-off will be a critical question such as ..."Some of us wanted tighter derivatives controls but were thwarted".

Senators see the political advantage iwith Enron hearings and there is nothing that can satiate the lust of a Presidential wannabee Senator who has the scent.

Gimli_ (11/29/01; 22:00:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 66104)
Contest Re-Submit (BlackBlade beat me while I was thinking)
$$$$$$ 275.00 $$$$$$

Gimli_ (11/29/01; 21:57:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 66103)
Contest
$$$$$$ 274.50 $$$$$$

Black Blade (11/29/01; 21:54:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 66102)
$$$$$274.50$$$$$
Gold Price Guessing Contest

Why not? A lot of other "Interesting" events will occur yet. The "Fun" is just beginning.

The CoinGuy (11/29/01; 21:48:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 66101)
$$$$$$279.50$$$$$$
TCG

Horatio (11/29/01; 21:29:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 66100)
Enron a blueprint for Hedging collapse
We are seeing what happins to hedging when it becomes CYA
time.The whole dam thing falls apart and all the talk about being covered by PUTS and CALLS and similar stratagies all wind up in the LAWYERS hands.Its like building a house of cards.I saw a representative of Vanguard tell the public about the effect on funds that were long Enrons stock and how its won't effect the fund.What a load of crap.Then he had the stupitity to tell how another Vanguard fund bought Enron stock today because it was in the INDEX of that particular fund.Any other time they would have CHANGED the index so as not to have to be a buyer of a company going under.If that is an example of the type of people running these funds we are in deep s--t. John Bogle ,you need to come back and supervise. Enrons 60 BILLION market cap loss, and no fund owns up to losing money.! Thats better than Houdini could have done.
Another moron on tonights news told how Enron was such a GOOD CORPORATE CITIZEN in Houston ,they supportd baseball teams and various "feel good" enterprises.MY opinion is Energy companies should not spend one cent on "feel good" public propaganda because they use it to cover up thier financial misdeeds.Energy should be a regulated monopoly and be prohibited from advertiseing or doing any public relations advertising.They don't need it.
Enron was active in the metals markets with hedging ,maybe
its about to blow! IMHO

cwa (11/29/01; 21:29:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 66099)
Price guessing contest
$$$$$276.00$$$$$

Thats my best guess.

cwa

slingshot (11/29/01; 21:14:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 66098)
*****Alan Greenspan, Maestro or Music Man *****
Alan Greenspan is the Maestro!

SO YOUR COUTRIES BROKE, AND YOU NEED SOME DOUGH?
WHO YA GONNA CALL? AL GREENSPAN!

Yes he is a man who wears many HATS. Travels the world and dines with heads of state.He boards his jet, sits down and opens his briefcase singing softly to himself, Here I come to save the day.Then takes a peak at his Mighty Mouse T shirt he wears under his fine suit. He is the Olympic 10,000 meter runner of the Senior Citizens for he is always pictured running to his limo or into some building. Go Al Go! He addresses Congress looking like Perry Mason holding a piece of paper with the words, If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, Baffle them with B.S.

With all the controversey which surrounds him, he is still here. People still look to him for advise. His is the image of the financial world. Image is what counts most in this world and he is the Maestro of Image.

Now if you can imagine Al standing at a podium at some large
symphony hall. Before him the orchestra of the worlds troubles. Behind him are bankers and investors.

The lights dim and Maestro Al taps his Magic Wand. Silence.
Al begins in slow movements and the music slowly comes forth.

It is the"1812 Overture".

It is a long piece and the music calms the audience. Each section playing the notes of woe but Al knows how to direct
using just enough movement of his wand to soften the music.
But Al knows the tempo is building and more sections will come to play.
The audience now is entranced by this wonderful music and Al,
Being the Maestro that he is, eases into the Puffa Puffa Rice. The orchestra of the worlds financial troubles is at a cresendo. Maestro Al waves his wand feverishly to keep it all together. Then..........................

Well, we will just have to wait to see how the Maestro finishes.

He is the Maestro of Image. For this reason gold ownership
in the physical is important now more than ever.

Slingshot

The Hoople (11/29/01; 21:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 66097)
Enron/ Enteron
I read where Kenneth Lay of Enron originally thought up the name Enteron as the original name for his new high flying hedge fund, oops, I mean energy trading company. Later it was discovered enteron was a word that described an intestinal part and not liking the connotation he changed it to Enron. Enteron now seems correct considering the product that emanates from each entity nowdays. Does it seem coincidental Enron and Chase's derivative positions expanded almost lockstep? Chase was active in financial management and dealings with Enron. While Enron might be the first and largest utility trading firm to implode it probably won't be the last. There are other casino gamblers out there in drag as utilities. I can't imagine anything good happening to a utility facing an 80% collapse in nat. gas prices or 90% drop in peak power. The difference between LTCM and Enron is
if you can imagine, systemic risk to our power supplies is
even more troubling. The fact that Enron stock collapsed to zero seems to be an indication there are no cronies willing to step up to the plate for a bailout. Unwilling or unable?
Time will tell. I think it wasn't long ago that Easy Al argued against more transparency in derivatives markets. Maybe Chase/Enron weighed on his mind? Kenneth Lay must feel like the the Duke brothers in "Trading Places". All that money donated to the Bush camp and others and nobody is showing up. He likely is an untouchable now. "Turn those machines back on!" Get back in there and SELL, Mortimer".
I knew Enron was a farce when they showed up at the lumber pit at the CME. Like a gambler in Vegas looking for a hot table. If Enron doesn't scare you into buying more gold I don't know what would. I bet 7,000 employees and thousands of investors of Enron would think the barbarous relic would be looking pretty good about now.

USAGOLD (11/29/01; 21:07:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 66096)
All. . .Contest!!
I have the good news that my far-seeing and wizardrous friend, Gandalf the White (who I predict will be starring in a movie real soon) will be monitoring the price guessing contest.

Let's make the guesses in 50� increments.

USAGOLD (11/29/01; 20:56:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 66095)
Uponroof. . . .
I have been an advocate of regulating derivatives for years -- even as I simultaneously advocate free markets. I see derivatives as anti-free market and Enron is an example of what can happen when there is no arbiter insuring the free and fair markets to which so many of us give lip service. The Congress' failure to regulate derivatives will go down as one of the great failures of the American system in this era. Certainly, the CFTC and FTC will beg off that most of these contracts were over-the-counter, etc. and therefore they did not have the authority. When the firecracker in the bottle finally goes off, all the children scurry in every direction so as not to be the one who takes the blame.

What we are in the midst of is a "systemic failure" and the system that is failing is the one that is supposed to keep market manipulators from crushing the rest of us and the economy with us. I caught a snippet of the CNBC's moralizing and breast pounding this afternoon over the Enron situation and I have to say that while they spent a great deal of time asking where was the CFTC in all of this, where were the auditors, the politicians, etc., confusion reins supreme. There has to be someone to blame, right? And what's amazing is that we haven't even begun to understand the implications of the Enron collapse. Wait until the heat is turned up a few notches as it undoubtedly will be. I actually heard one of the talking heads pat the markets on the back because the "collapse" was "controlled." I suppose what they don't know won't hurt them. . . . At least for the moment -- and any moment free of total disaster these days is a good one.

While CNBC lashes the system over the Enron failure, I ask how many times has CNBC been contacted about the shenanigans afoot in the gold market only to ignore the situation entirely. At some point down the road, we are going to see another version of Enron in the gold market. Are they going to pretend then that they were never told,or that they didn't understand the problem. In reality, it is their duty as the press to not only understand what's going on in the gold market, but to unmask it for the public to understand. Enron? In the AGE OF DERIVATIVES there are Enron's everywhere you turn! I foresee a time when the rest of New York has gone up figuratively in smoke, the markets have crashed and the world economy in shambles, some CNBC anchor will be standing amidst the ruins microphone in hand saying something like "Why didn't someone see this coming and tell us?" All the while, this ultimate and all-encompassing disaster is precisely what Enron foreshadows. And on the day that the rest of the world realized just that, CNBC was still telling us that the markets are ready for the new bull phase, that we can handle economic holocaust and "the market" still rises. Think financial typhoon. . . . . . .and you will begin to understand what should be done with an extra $50,000, $5000 or $5 million you might have hanging around. . . . . ..

Thanks, uponroof. . . . .I read all your posts.

jinx44 (11/29/01; 20:54:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 66094)
FBI Magic Lantern
Anyone have any knowledge about detecting the ML trojan? This is truly a privacy and money issue.

coco (11/29/01; 20:46:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 66093)
Silver & Platinum
Coco
I have been enjoying the read. Some extremely good articles on PM. Like everyone else I'm optimistic about the rise in silver,however , apparently there doesn't
seem to any shortage in small bars i.e. 16oz (1/2kg)
upwards in Brisbane, Australia. My bullion dealer claims there is very little demand and they send most of their small bars to the refinery to be processed into
granules for the jewellery trade. I have noticed there never seems to be any comments on platinum?

uponroof (11/29/01; 20:44:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 66092)
Rich
great advice. "Thee best investment is always in yourself".

or,

"Show me a man that never had a chance and I'll show you a man that never took a chance".

Nice to know your experiencing life to the fullest. All the best.

R Powell (11/29/01; 20:38:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 66091)
Canuck
One more quick thought. That $50,000 is about $49,000 more than I had when I did quit on the boss and started working (construction) on my own, by myself and for myself.
It won't be easier and the hours, at least at first, may be longer but the rewards when earned will be your's. It also helps to have a sense of humor if you intend to be your own boss. It can also be, like watching the markets, a whole lot of fun. After all, what did you have before this present job and exactly what was it you wanted to do when you were younger?
Rich

Black Blade (11/29/01; 20:31:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 66090)
Polyone to close three plants, cut 300 jobs
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011129/n29114478_1.html

Snippit:

CLEVELAND, Nov 29 (Reuters) - PolyOne Corp. (NYSE:POL), which produces custom compounded plastics, on Wednesday said it would close three plants, cut 300 jobs and take a charge of $26 million over the next two quarters.

Black Blade: Uh oh - More nonessential "Bones" for the "Bone Pile."

Black Blade (11/29/01; 20:27:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 66089)
Broadwing to Cut 15 Percent of Jobs
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20011129/tc/telecoms_broadwing_dc_1.html

Snippit:

CINCINNATI, Ohio (Reuters) - Telecommunications services company Broadwing Inc.(NYSE:BRW) said on Thursday it would reorganize, cutting 15 percent of its work force and taking a $250 million to $300 million charge in the fourth quarter.

Black Blade: More phone "Bones" off to the "Bone Pile." That's 900 "Bones."

R Powell (11/29/01; 20:18:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 66088)
Canuck
I hear you loud and clear as I had the same conversation about the cost and necessity as compared to cost of cell phones with my 21 year old daughter last week.
As far as investment advice goes, anyone who reads here knows my inclinations but I risk only my own and then only on my own decisions. You've probably read my little poem, by Bob Dylan about who to trust- trust yourself.
However, I will go as far as to suggest that if you have a great deal to invest, divide the amount into parts, for instance six equal parts and then invest one part every other month. This will spread out over one year. Also, simple preservation of capital is sometimes, that is during certain financial times, a good return in itself.
And, as in all our endeavors, patience is a virtue. For successful monetary investments, a necessity.
Good luck
Remember too the answer Babe Ruth gave when responding to the question of what he intended to do with what in his day was a huge salary. He replied that he would spend some on good whiskey, some chasing women and that he would probably waste the rest. Spend a little on Canuck!
Rich

Gandalf the White (11/29/01; 20:17:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 66087)
$$$$$277.5$$$$$.
MK says, "We will have a price guessing contest. Where gold will close on Friday, December 7th on the Comex -- the December contract. Each entry must be surrounded by $$$$$$ dollar signs." --- The Crystal Ball says "GC1Z close = $277.5
<;-)

Black Blade (11/29/01; 20:17:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 66086)
Japan's Jobless Rate Hits Record
http://biz.yahoo.com/apf/011129/japan_unemployment_2.html

Japan's Unemployment Rate Hits Record High 5.4 Percent in October

Snippit:

TOKYO (AP) -- Japan's unemployment rate climbed to a record high 5.4 percent in October, as the deepening downturn eroded jobs and fears loomed that proposed economic reforms may push the figure even higher. The jobless rate, announced Friday, was the highest since the government began keeping track in the 1950s. In September, the jobless rate hit 5.3 percent. Two months earlier, it had reached the then-record 5 percent.

Black Blade: The Global "Bone Pile" grows. There will be more "bones" added as Japanese banks have yet to deal with massive bad loans and many defaults. The rumor is that the Japanese government bailed out a couple of large Japanese banks and more may yet be done. The IMF audit of Japanese banks appears to foretell trouble as no one is officially discussing the results. "Interesting Times"

uponroof (11/29/01; 20:07:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 66085)
NY Times Op/Ed....stepping out to paste Wall Street standards
http://www.nytimes.com/2001/11/29/opinion/29THU2.html
It seems the mass hysteria brought on by Wall St hypesters, and the endless helpings of SEC slack, is being brought to bear on the moral disaster which is Enron.
*********************

"...Enron is now shorthand for the perfect financial storm. Take a high-flying company terribly impressed with its sense of unique mission and ingenuity, and correspondingly contemptuous of its obligations to fully comply with the spirit of accounting rules. Then add fawning investors, Wall Street analysts, journalists and accountants unwilling to allow a company's lack of transparency about its business to get in the way of a dizzying ride, until they realize the destination is the top of a steep cliff. What you have then is an Enron....

snip

Now Enron is the best argument for the need for stronger supervision of public companies' financial data. The Securities and Exchange Commission should make sure that the energy trader's saga puts an end to any talk of lessening disclosure requirements faced by public companies. Moreover, Arthur Andersen's failure to uncover flawed accounting by Enron, or to forcefully question some of the company's shadier transactions, raises serious concerns about auditors' commitment to be sufficiently diligent in reviewing the actions of major companies.

There is a certain irony that Enron, a champion of deregulation, now becomes a poster child for the need for strong regulation on Wall Street.
*****************

Belgian-thanks for the strong case you make. We shall see.

Canuck-take 5K and short the biggest bank that hasn't yet shown any signs of trouble. Think of the satisfaction. Why it would be nothing less than therapuedic. Given the last rant, I'd do it tommorrow. Thanks for that passion. It's helped others (slingshot) and me also. Please keep us posted on your investing strategies.

Cavan Man (11/29/01; 19:56:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 66084)
PS Canuck
Read Bill Bonner every day and drink two glasses of red wine for your physical and mental health. Cheers!

Cavan Man (11/29/01; 19:53:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 66083)
Hi Canuck
I think next year we'll see good progress but no real big move until 03. Hang in there. There will likely be more Enrons down the road. Ponder the pending reality of bankruptcy protection for sovereign nations from private creditors and then buy more physical from CPM eh?

Black Blade (11/29/01; 19:50:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 66082)
Enron Bankruptcy Would Be Largest Chapter 11 Filing
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topfin&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APAY8QxUQRW5yb24g&ao=22202885

Snippit:

Washington, Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Enron Corp. may file for bankruptcy protection in the biggest Chapter 11 reorganization in history, forcing the largest U.S. energy trader to liquidate billions of dollars in assets to pay creditors.

Black Blade: It's official! CNBC tonight announced that Enron stock is worthless! Enron traded at 36 cents today and tonight the stock is rated worthless. Bankruptcy filing is in the works and trading is slated to be suspended. Most of Enron's 21,000 employees are expected to be fired by the end of next week. Creditors and bond holders will be first in line. This means that shareholders and especially those in Enron's 401K program with Enron stock are SOL. There's a lot of shattered dreams tonight. There are over a Trillion dollars in derivatives to be unwound and many more companies and investment institutions will be severely hurt. It is very likely that Enron even dabbled in PM derivatives markets as well. We live in "Interesting Times."

site steward (11/29/01; 19:44:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 66081)
Canuck (#66074)
Great post. Nice passion. I only hope the liberal use of barroom language doesn't become a slippery slope for others joining in for the first time.

You asked, "Can someone tell me something so that I can take my $50,000 and slap it on the table?"

Taken in context of your whole post, it is SEEMS very apparent to me (I could be wrong) that your are simply TRYING too hard. Good investment strategies for individuals are not about "trying" and "wanting" and "hoping".

Think of it this way. It's your money, right?? You earned it. Now do with it whatever you feel you need to do to feel right about your decision, thus allowing you to sleep well at night.

And if you can't sleep knowing that it might be at risk investend in a company's net worth as a viable business, then try a bank account. And if you can't sleep knowing it is in a bank account drawing 2% nominal versus real price inflation, then look into tangible forms of wealth that you are comfortable with. May I suggest warm slippers, a robe and a fully stocked wine cellar? You'll get a lot of mileage on 50k.

Personally, I'd take the wine in moderation, go all out on the robe and a good pair of slippers, and put the balance in other things. But far be it from me to give investment advice, so I'll stop there.

Randy

USAGOLD (11/29/01; 19:41:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 66080)
Contest!!
I neglected to put a close date on the price guessing contest.

All entries must be posted by 5pm MST Tuesday, December 4th.

USAGOLD (11/29/01; 19:37:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 66079)
HEAR YE! HEAR YE!! A POSTING CONTEST CALLING UPON YOUR MOST POWERFUL, WELL-HONED & ERUDITE SKILLS!! AND THIS IS GOING TO BE A GOOD ONE. . . . . . . .

- - - - - - - --

You know what, Dark horse, I've been thinking what you've been thinking.

We're due for a contest and it would be productive to tap the collective wisdom around this noble Table. I agree.

But how to break the psychic dam and get the ideas to flow?

Nothing like a challenge to match the quality of the poster and lurkers present. This idea came to me while having lunch today and browsing over the latest GRANT�S Interest Rate Observer. It seems that one of James Grant's friends -- a fellow named Paul L. Kasreil who does economic research for Northern Trust Co. -- posed a most far-reaching question. One that is making the rounds among people who talk markets as well as those who enjoy the same as a worthy pre-occupation.

The question is this:

------------------------------------ Alan Greenspan: Maestro or Music Man? ----------------------------

The book, "Maestro", was the subject of a great deal of conversation here when it came out several months ago and opinion was pretty much divided on it -- some thought it characterized a master at the peak of his powers. Others saw it as a whitewash of a Fed chairman who simply injected liquidity willy-nilly at a time when the world had no where to turn but the dollar. Some called him genius. Others called him lucky. Still others called him confused -- pumping money into the system at one turn and deriding "irrational exuberance" the next.

But Maestro or Music Man?? Now that's intriguing, and very much worth a contest.

For those of you scratching your head at the choice, I will remind you that The Music Man, one of America's favorite all-time musicals, is the story of band director/con artist. The following from famed critic, Clifford Ridley captures the Music Man for our purposes:

"Bierko is a younger Hill than Preston, yet with his slicked-back hair, his self- dramatizing gestures and his roving eyes constantly scouting for trouble, he's every inch the two-bit con man. As advertised, he delivers Hill's fervid patter with dash and musicality; and at the end, when he's unmasked by the unconditional love of a good woman, he's quite touching. And he has a splendid foil in Luker, who sings Marian's arching melodies in a limpid soprano and persuasively metamorphoses from chilly skeptic to loving co-conspirator. She also has a fine way of saying "Ssssh" - an admonition, fortunately, that this ebullient production mostly ignores."

And then here's a passage from the preface to Bob Woodward's "Maestro" which more than adequately captures the essence of the Maestro side of the coin:

"Greenspan is slated to remain chairman of the Federal Reserve until 2004. Not only is he a major figure in the world's economic past, he is central to its future. He has been frank enough to stand before the new and amazing economic circumstances that he helped create and in the end declare them a mystery. It is impossible to account fully for the continuing high growth, record employment, low inflation and high stock market."

And, toward the end of this important book:

"Greenspan also represents something more than the confidence wing of the American Personality. He stands at the point where the country's eternal optimism meets the country's abiding suspicion that something will go wrong. . . That fear also creates a kind of excitement and anticipation.Greenspan stands at the crossroads of optimisim and pessimism. Each of us is a character in the nation's great economic soap opera; Greenspan is both director and producer."

So, the question before the table is this:

***** "Alan Greenspan, Maestro or Music Man?" *****

Lovable Con-Man or Brilliant Fed Chairman?

I will leave with another thought of Mr. Kasreil -- as I think the computer cannot be taken out of the present equation without missing a major part of the analysis:

"Economics how do we measure that? Well, I can tell you there has been a very increase in productivity, at least at my shop. When I joined the Northern Trust over 15 years ago, it took three senior economists and three research assistants about two weeks to come out with an inaccurate economic forecast, and with this laptop, I can do it all by myself in one day."

The world, I know, is not spinning any faster than it used to be but who among us would deny that it is. . . . . . . . .So Maestro or Music? You be the judge.

Each entry must address the question in sufficient length but no more than is absolutely necessary to make the point -- the eternal bane of the writer. An appropriate link is acceptable. The contest will be judged not on the choice you make but on the erudition and argumentative skills used to make your case. Please surround your entry with stars as shown. The winner will get a lucky French Angel gold coin -- the one they say Napoleon carried throughout his campaigns until he lost it . . . . .the day before Waterloo. As Darkhorse suggests the entry-post must also include some reference as to what the future might bring by the end of the year (for posterity's sake). As always, the post must conclude with how all of this relates to gold and gold ownership -- and it is there that the worm turns, where the contest will decided. The runners up -- two of them -- will receive a Mexican Azteca silver coin.

First time posters will receive a one-ounce U.S. Silver Eagle but in order to claim the price you must indicate that you are a first-time poster with Jill Snyder (jill@usagold.com). The post must be an entry into the main contest -- "Alan Greenspan, Maestro or Music Man." First time posts in the price guessing contest (see below) do not count toward the Silver Eage Prize. Pls include your current mailing address.

The posting contest will go from this moment through Sunday, December 9, 2001 when midnight graces the purple mountain majesties.

* * * * * * * * * * *

In addition to the posting contest, we will have a price guessing contest. Where gold will close on Friday, December 7th on the Comex -- the December contract. Each entry must be surrounded by $$$$$$ dollar signs as follows $$$$$30,000$$$$$. The winner -- he or she who comes closest to that closing price -- will receive a one tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonic.

* * * * * * * * * * * * *

Good luck all. May the best poster win.

mikal (11/29/01; 19:32:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 66078)
@Canuck
Your post re: China gold exchange reminded me that laughter is the best medicine and I needed that! But I would like to assure you that the Chinese gold exchange is a "go" and that they are looking forward to the pending realignment of world finance /economics. In a few short weeks, as world leaders act in concert, markets of all kinds will begin transitioning. China will savor the status of having a trade surplus (not deficit) with the world and a vastly expanded partnership with socialist, pro-gold Euro players. Much of the progress made so far will come out into full view after the launch of the Euro. The futures market is merely an overture to the western financiers, who wish to veil the approaching paper/exchange volcano at this delicate time.

R Powell (11/29/01; 19:27:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 66077)
sector
Are you telling us that Richard Russell is becoming a cynic? If so, he's in danger of even further deprograming which might transform him into one of those goldbug things! Maybe he'll hear us talking about him and join us!

slingshot (11/29/01; 19:27:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 66076)
Canuck Msg# 66074
I have a son who is 19 and thinks I live in the dark ages.
He has the new gadgets and is short of money too.

He has a poor mans wallet and rich mans taste. Holds true for most of his generation.

There are many at this forum who have been long in the tooth in this gold game. They knew from the start it would not be an easy task for TPTB have planned it well. They are so entrenched finacialy that we Goldbugs could be just along for the ride. Their objective is to lay claim to as much wealth as possible and leave the rest of us in poverty. In one of my past post I stated weak hearts will not fare well in this arena. Could it be that we as goldbugs have to make a leap of faith?

What I see around me does not speak well for the world.
As a Goldbug I believe that one day, reguardless of the price of Gold, I will stand in the eye of the storm and watch the distruction around me, unscathe.

Hang in there Canuck, Others share your feelings.
Slingshot

sector (11/29/01; 18:38:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 66075)
Richard Russell's Epiphany Regarding Manipulation
In radiology residency there is a saying "You see only what you look for...you understand only what you know". Every new intern is confronted with special learning case films from time to time that test his/her on this important point over and over again until they finally appreciate its meaning. Only in retrospect are the telltale signs of the correct diagnosis seen.

Richard Russell has now crossed over from not wanting to know about the dark side, to seeking more evidence about United States financial and commodities market manipulation. Look for more editorials revealing even greater indignation as he just now begins to piece together the profound implications of gold and other market manipulation. The savaging of the Third World's gold producers, the destruction of fixed income [widows and orphan savers] in the US, the mafia style currency and derivatives trades. We can predict the end point of these editorials...an indictment of the Master of the Universe for this policy of fraud and corruption.

Each person must come to his own epiphany about these monstrous crimes on his or her own terms. John Hathaway recently crossed over. Once one makes the change, they enter a new domain...a region where you lose friends if you dare to speak up and are then viewed as if claiming to have been abducted by aliens. You learn not to wave your arms too much...to let people alone if at first they wish not to get it. The manipulation story is, after all, the greatest scandal in the history of the world...with the most corrupt men and the most heinous deeds...the summit of evil.

Canuck (11/29/01; 18:21:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 66074)
@ Pandagold
Hello Pandagold, saw your post re: China's new gold exchange. I would like to ask a question regarding the 'futures' aspect of this exchange.

For many months we have been lead to believe that this new exchange is of a physical nature and now we hear that 'futures trading' will begin when the 'market matures'.

What does that mean?

Is this another Comex/Tocom? I noticed a hint the other day, the market opening was delayed and there was not a disturbance in the POG. With that in mind I sensed that this 'China exchange' might not amount to a rats ass. It was disappointing to say the least, especially given the hoopla in the last few weeks.

So what am I saying?

Well, after yesterday's hystery about Enron and all the 'flapping and gumming' about "finally the derivative paper burn" and the subsequent non-event today I really have to wonder who knows what about sh*t. (Be careful with that one, many of us know alot but what do we know for CERTAIN?)

I had a heated discussion with my 19 year old daughter tonight. She's all messed up with being broke. I explained that if she dumped her cellular and her fitness membership etc., etc. she would have more money. She said "...to hell with that...it's the way of the world."

I said, "....bullsh*t, when I was 19 (about a hundred years
ago) THAT wasn't the 'way of the world'. No one had a cell phone 5 years ago and no one had internet 5 years ago and no one had laptops 5 years ago and email and messanger service and blah, blah, blah...kids are spoiled brats these days, the world is going broke supporting an unsustainable 'brat' society and who pays, who is broke, WE ALL ARE! She asked me earlier why we don't have a 'burner' on our computer so she can play discs in her god-damn bank financed car!"

Give me a major-league break. I read, I listen and frankly I am bewildered.

My manager asked me again today to 'volunteer' more time to the office. Piss off Jack, you are sucking the last drop of blood out of my veins. I am going to break your little neck, kick your butt and quit. My salary has been fractionalized by your bullsh*t stunts for 2 or 3 years now and I am at the point of snapping. Your demoralized staff is ready for mutiny. I want to hear some GOOD NEWS okay!

Gold is ready, gold is ready, gold is ready.

Man, is this an old story; paper is burning, silver is exploding, out of oil, too much money, what the hell is going on? I'm been in 'the game' for 4 years and I'm tired, what about you folks that have been around for decades, do you have your fingernails chewed off to the elbows?

Can someone tell me something so that I can take my $50,000 and slap it on the table?

Belgian (11/29/01; 18:08:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 66073)
@ Upon-the-roof...with you
Fifty years of enormous expansion, prosperity and a little peace, with a US$ that rules the world, starting after WWII.
I am constantly questioning the **authencity** of this achievement. And amazed how nothing could stop the dollar's advance, in the events of the past 10 years.

Western people are addicted/hooked on the prosperity-drug.
The western globe has never been as managable as it is at present. And we don't care about the stealth loss of individualism, as long as prosperity can be maintained.
The dollar survived almost the entire catalog of possible threathening catastrophes. IMVHO, only one cataclysm is left : massive unemployment and the inability to revive the artificial economic beast. When prosperity declines and starts to bite...people's criticism will come to stand in the way of easy (mis)management.

All revolutions (evolutions) are born and get momentum for change when hunger,cold and losses, strike decisevely.
The euro's role, will partly function as an escape alternative, if the dollar-Giant, stumbles.

Unemployment rising above 10% and for a prolonged period of time, will and shall be fatal, this time ! With the (guaranteed) outlook of a cascading series of conflicts and confrontations...the US-Dollar-Giant has embarked on a very risky adventure. Probably, exactly what Binladen and his successors are wishing for.

We impossibly know, how the globe's attitude vis a vis the dollar/euro, might evolve when a continiued war/tensions is combined with a severe contraction in the US (and world) economy. Two critical masses (war+prosperity) that can grow out of control.

The most difficult thing to mask and manipulate is : unemployment (private employment)! All other macro-indicators, could easely be falsified so far. But there is not such thing as a pro forma-unemployment for a long period of time.

Zero rates, defaulting countries, debt-explosions, stockmarket crashes and/or more Enron-dot-coms to come, aren't shocking enough, to make the dollar-management crumble. The POO at 34$ pr�-indicator, is taking care of, at present and the most universal indicator of all : GOLD, is still in the same bed.

That's why I've choosen that last indicator of pain (unemployment) for pinpointing the final breaking-point.

The day that the bulk of the 100 trillion on derivatives, becomes a threat...it will already be too late. This paper will not make the dollar paper burn, but the other way around.

Looking to the american events of the past ten years, from a european point of vieuw, is frightening.

Can the US Giant keep on winning all these games, without being knocked out, by exhaustion or accident ?

uponroof (11/29/01; 17:38:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 66072)
Richard Russell........ getting combative about manipulation
This is part of last night letter. Just had to post this beginning. A few short weeks ago Mr Russell was not at all receptive to manipulation theories. It seems now he knows the secret handshakes of all conspiracy theorist groups. The truth is coming out my friends.
************

"November 28, 2001 --

I guess you could call this "the age of the manipulated markets." What kind of manipulation? Well, we have manipulation in oil (OPEC and the gang), manipulation in gold bullion and gold futures (probably the central banks and the Fed), manipulation in currencies (central bank interventions), manipulation in short term rates (the Fed) and even manipulation in long rates (again the fed).

So where does all this manipulation get us? Nowhere. Or maybe I should say -- "in trouble." Any time you interfere with the normal forces of supply and demand, you're "messing with nature," and looking for trouble.

After all, look at the world's leading manipulator, Alan Greenspan. He talked "irrational exuberance" in late-1996 but soon joined with the "new economy" bunk-sters, and he grew progressively more ecstatic about "productivity." And all the time he fed the markets with copious liquidity. Then when the markets started to fall apart, Greenie turned around and dropped rates ten times in succession while flooding the markets with liquidity.

So what have we got now, after all the endless manipulation?

We have a global "domino effect," with nation after nation sinking into recession. Japan is now suffering through its fourth recession in a decade, Germany is in the process of sliding into recession, France is on the edge of recession, while in South America Argentina is in the throes of a major recession. Most of Asia is hurting, and Asian businessmen are terrified by the sight of China underselling them in almost every area.

Meanwhile, the US is exporting its manufacturing facilities overseas, mostly to China. And as the battle for export markets intensifies, US corporations will continue to shut down facilities here while opening new factories in China where wages are a fraction of what they are in the US -- or in Mexico, for that matter......"

megatron (11/29/01; 17:37:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 66071)
Canuck
hahahahhah, yeah the whole thing is just filth, but what can ya do?!?!? It's like watching an insane version of "I,Claudius" going down every day, and nobody cares.

Canuck (11/29/01; 17:25:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 66070)
@ Megatron
Your 66064 is a good one; shades of Farfel.

You're so laid back dude.

;)

uponroof (11/29/01; 16:44:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 66069)
Belgian
Great post.

You said:

"It is when the jobless rate starts to attrackt serious attention, that the denial-phase, will come to an end. That's the moment that a lower dollar will be considered as
another and last effort to change the tide. It is here that the biggest danger for a total collapse (reckoning) is hiding."

Hear! Hear!

That would make a lot of American manufacturers very happy. As it would, I suspect one forgotten Treasury Secretary, Paul O'Neill, whose 'go along to get along' with the entrenched strong dollar must be unbearable. The former CEO of Alcoa does not disguise very well his disdain for politics. Especially those which cripple American manufacturers.

I guess we could then consider Paul O'Neill's eventual return to prominence (actually showing up at policy meetings) as a leading indicator, and the fading out (hopefully forever) of Rubin and his strong dollar consulting fees (think of the tax savings).

However...

A weak dollar policy may be far more dangerous than the soupline. Considering all the watered down money, pumped over the dam of hell these past many years, devaluation will be quite steep. Not sure they could bring themselves to that kind of suicide. It will be interesting to watch.

Two points I'd like you to clarify, if you would:

1. Are you saying that the dollar will lose strength only after unbridled unemployment coerces those in control to change policy? Invigorating the domestic manufacturing sector, through less expensive exports (weak dollar)?

2. Are you saying that the key to triggering this decision will hinge solely on domestic American conditions (unemployment) and not be influenced by external currency fluctuations (euro)?

If so, I believe we have some agreement.

I also believe that internal American misfortunes (my flavor: derivative complications) will frighten global dollar holders to the point of swapping out.

The world enjoys being dollar dominated at the moment, but what if several more connected derivative loss situations appear?

The problem with derivitaves is the delayed reaction, like we are waiting now for the other shoe to drop at Enron. Uncertainty with overhanging fear is a terrible thing.

America (the dollar) has managed to stay above the fray despite severe stock losses and litteral financial sector attacks. Survival due in part to the agressive monetary system tactics it employs.

But can it survive a rash of derivative explosions which seem germain to this same agressive system? The system the dollar calls home. What if there appears a distinct fault relevant only to agressive American policies? Not saying America alone 'chases the derivative dragon', but it is smoked here in major amounts, in elaborate bongs, 'fer shurr'.

In a few weeks we will be sitting at our Christmas dinners (assuming we have enough natural gas to cook it) and know the full extent of the Enron disaster. Then we may be able to see how much more of this is coming, and perhaps even gauge how much more of this overhanging fear the world's money changers might care to bear.

Thanks Belgian for your continuous efforts.

R Powell (11/29/01; 15:53:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 66068)
GATA
Thanks Chris!
Thank you good sir!

Chris Powell (11/29/01; 14:36:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 66067)
GATA Chairman Murphy's speech in New Orleans
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/929
GATA Chairman Bill Murphy's speech to the
New Orleans Investment Conference.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/gata/message/929

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches by email and get
them immediately so you don't have to go look for
them, send an email to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

megatron (11/29/01; 13:54:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 66066)
BTW
For anyone who's interested a serious amount of accumulation began in junior gold stocks today in large lots but only 'at the bid'. Hmmmmmmmmmm.

R Powell (11/29/01; 13:43:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 66065)
ski and Solomon Weaver and the unsinkable SM
Thanks, ski (66030 and others) for taking notes and typing them here. I'm always interested in the opinions of well-known investors and not so well-known ones. I try to listen to all, even the peoples' stock market television channel cheerleaders. Can you tell us more about the New Opportunities Conference, as in who, what, where and if there are any internet links to any more information.
*****
Solomon, thanks for the link (66035). It's the last one (saving the best for last) I need read to be all caught up on my usagold reading, then I'm off to the prudentbear forum. So much to study, so many questions, so few answers, so many tired brain cells. Time for more coffee?
*****
With all the news of the last two months or so culminating with the Enron meltdown and the stock markets' refusal to come down from their totally divorsed from economic rationality price levels, I'm completely in awe.
Old John Law's small paper scam of yesteryear pales in comparison. Debt and fair value be damned, full speed ahead and arm the photon torpedos! No shields Mr Scott, all power to the phasers! Perhaps, I'll take a few thousand cash advance of the credit card to buy some Enron stock. Why it doubled it value just this morning (0.20 to 0.40)! As usual, this is not investment advice.
Rich

megatron (11/29/01; 13:41:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 66064)
Just for fun...
Think back 10 months to what the abject morons of Wall st. were saying about Enron. Now paste that absolutely stupid level of over-confidence onto the bearish silver traders/genius' of the world who claim 'they know' all about supply/demand bla bla bla and that there's lots of silver yadda yadda. Ten minutes before they were probably telling their dumb clients to hold onto Enron 'for the long run'. I get this stuff in the mail and it cracks me up. It's a carnival of liars.

Belgian (11/29/01; 11:46:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 66063)
Currency's management
The confidence in any currency is 1/ managed by the one who is printing it, or 2/ attacted/undermined, by a rival.

The US$-management (A.Greenspock + politics) must have its reasons for promoting confidence in the currency. No rival (euro) seems to show any efforts to undermine that confidence, adding strength to the dollar's convenience.

Any currency can theoretically be *mis-valued*, at any time and for any period of time, as two conditions are fullfilled : 1/ a strong management 2/ no action or incapability of a rival (only possible = EMU), to change the relative value of the dollar.

Question : Is there any reason or breaking point, where it becomes of the US's interest to have (manage) a declining relative dollar-value, and signal its rival, that it is time/opportune, to take over ?

A strong currency is a buyers dream. And in the mean time a seller's nightmare. The US exports of localy produced products is declining and imports are increasing. It is when the internal economic activity of the US is contracting to such an extend that imports are declining...that the strength or weakness of the dollar, doesn't matter that much anymore. Or, that all sellers to the US, have less interest in having their currency, weaker against the US$. They (sellers) will be attrackted by another strong currency (euro), to sell their products to.

At that moment, US multinationals, can repatriate, their profits, abundantly.

Such a (dollar) breaking point, might appear when the degree of jobless, reaches 10% and beyond. When zero rates and tax-cuts, don't result in a renewed activity that can keep the increasing massive debt-monster, pushed forward.
The new expansion must have started within the next year, when the lag time (respons) on economic policies has expired.

It is when the jobless rate starts to attrackt serious attention, that the denial-phase, will come to an end. That's the moment that a lower dollar will be considered as
another and last effort to change the tide. It is here that the biggest danger for a total collapse (reckoning) is hiding.

BB, can you add the jobless-rate in percentages in your daily reports one bone-piles ?

Knallgold (11/29/01; 11:17:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 66062)
Pandagold'slight turbulence?
You still stick to your 350-400$ target next year?Ok,maybe I know what you mean with little turbulence :-)

Pandagold (11/29/01; 11:10:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 66061)
Gondalph the White
Lighten up Sir, there is a lot of good sound economics contained in those few words. If we can't smile occasionally, it has become a sorry world. However, having said that, if it offends a single one, it is my first and last.

It was actually sparked off ( chain reaction in my my mind) by Argent's 'I want my 5%.' ( I always thought it was 10%) Of course if you don't see the connection, I understand.

Knallgold (11/29/01; 11:07:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 66060)
Chinas Gold market
"...Futures trading is to be introduced when the
market becomes more mature...."

Uhh,futures?Did FOA's friends hear to ORO?

Gandalf the White (11/29/01; 10:29:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 66059)
Pandagold (11/29/01; 08:31:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 66054)
FAR better that you stick to discussions of Gold and economics related items, Sir Panda !!! ALL those, the Hobbits read and do think about (sometimes agreeing and sometimes not)!! NOW, they shall have to start screening your posts, as it appears that you have joined the ranks of the "weird ones".
<;-)

lamprey_65 (11/29/01; 10:26:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 66058)
More Hints of War
Prime Tanning, one of only eight sources of military boot leather, has decided to reopen a recently closed facility in Berwick Maine and in the process, rehire 150 employees. The company says, "the need for military leather is expected to double in the next year."

The company recently closed two facilities in NH/ME in order to move production overseas, so this is definately a Department of Defense inspired decision.

Interesting, yes?

Galearis (11/29/01; 09:14:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 66057)
Financial Problems North: Bank of Montreal buys CSFB
http://www2.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/newsarticle.asp?siteid=mktw&sid=103275&guid=%7B3A0D1540%2D1C25%2D481B%2D9576%2D497425705359%7D
But nowhere in this and related stories is it mentionned that BMO's losses in 4th quarter were 99%! Good ol' CBC Radio One

When no news IS the news....

G.

Editor, The Gilded Opinion (11/29/01; 08:50:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 66056)
Antony P. Mueller at the GILDED OPINION
http://www.usagold.com/THEGILDEDOPINION.html

"There is a lot of talk nowadays that the U.S. economy might follow the Japanese experience and move toward a period of prolonged stagnation accompanied by deflationary tendencies. But the situation of the economy in the United States is decisively different from that in Japan at least in one important respect: In the U.S., the private savings rate is very low and negative for households; and while Japan entered its slump as a creditor nation, net foreign debt for the U.S. is approaching $2 trillion in U.S. dollars. In fact, the Japanese savings overhang may rather have dampened the downturn there; but when debt exposure is as large as it is currently in the United States, contractions have the tendency to trigger a downward spiral of economic activity."

Is it curtains for the dollar? Read more of Antony P. Mueller's insightful view of the U.S. economy, "Miracle or Mirage?", appearing today at THE GILDED OPINION.

____________________________________________________________

Also Featured:

The latest rendering from political cartoonist Ed Stein's wacky world!

____________________________________________________________

Galearis (11/29/01; 08:44:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 66055)
@ Solomon Weaver...good article on gold AND silver relationship
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/barron/barron112801.html
snippet....
"An important factor in silver fundamentals is that U.S. government stockpiles are now officially depleted. This means that there is no massive overhang out there that could potentially be sold off by an administration hostile to silver. The history of the stockpile goes back a long way. In fact, back to the days of the Comstock Lode in Nevada. The stockpile was the end result of America's experiment with the bimetallic monetary system, which lasted for just shy of a century."
************

More stuff on coinage abounds. Very good article on relationship values of gold and silver thru US history and the supply fundamentals that drove them.

G

Argent (11/29/01; 07:26:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 66053)
I Want The Earth Plus 5%
http://www.relfe.com/plus_5_.html

With the greatest respect to all,

I would like to thank you and USAGOLD for providing such reasoned discourse about gold and other related topics. I am sure that all the lurkers that do not add to the forum but rather gain knowledge, appreciate most opinions and facts as well.

Coming across the following article, I thought it might help some get a better grasp of how our current monetary system works or better yet corrupts our way of life and siphons off our prosperity. Here is an excerpt:

"Since I am providing a service, that is, the money supply, I am entitled to payment for my work. Let us say that for every 100 pieces you obtain, you repay me 105 for every year that you owe the debt. The 5 will be my charge, and I shall call this charge interest."

http://www.relfe.com/plus_5_.html

Argent (11/29/01; 07:25:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 66052)
I Want The Earth Plus 5%
http://www.relfe.com/plus_5_.html

With the greatest respect to all,

I would like to thank you and USAGOLD for providing such reasoned discourse about gold and other related topics. I am sure that all the lurkers that do not add to the forum but rather gain knowledge, appreciate most opinions and facts as well.

Coming across the following article, I thought it might help some get a better grasp of how our current monetary system works or better yet corrupts our way of life and siphons off our prosperity. Here is an excerpt:

"Since I am providing a service, that is, the money supply, I am entitled to payment for my work. Let us say that for every 100 pieces you obtain, you repay me 105 for every year that you owe the debt. The 5 will be my charge, and I shall call this charge interest."

http://www.relfe.com/plus_5_.html

Black Blade (11/29/01; 07:08:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 66051)
(No Subject)
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/011129/business_energy_price_economy_dc_1.html
Cheaper Oil Seen Fueling Economic Recovery

Snippit:

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices will probably weaken by another 20 percent to $15-$16 per barrel over the next six months, helping drive the world economy out of recession, one of the world's top fund managers said on Thursday.

Black Blade: Another "Sleeper" awakens! Yes lower "energy" prices are necessary to emerge out of the recession. However, we are far from $10.00/bbl oil and utility rates are still nearly double the average rate. On the down side is the risk to the oil producing Third World like Russia and the ME, as well as the energy industry. More bond defaults in the offing with a lower POO? A double edged-sword.

Black Blade (11/29/01; 06:52:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 66050)
US Unemployment Rockets Higher

The US unemployment rolls grew by 54,000 last week. Some Wall Street Pimp was just on CNBC and said, "yes but it isn't easy to seasonally adjust the numbers on Thanksgiving week." Decoded this means - "we could not rig the numbers with statistical massage to make it look like unemployment was decreasing." You see Pro Forma style accounting is pervasive at the BLS as well. This does not bode well for this deepening recession. In a word - "GRIM"

Pandagold (11/29/01; 06:44:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 66049)
Error - double negative
Ignore the double negative. I changed the wording at the last minute and it left an error. It should read 'no, that does not mean they are a ma--ana society like............'

Pandagold (11/29/01; 06:40:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 66048)
China Shanghai Gold Exchange

Taken From www.Kitco. com News (Future Source)
[FWN] Shanghai Gold Exchange starts mock operations

HONG KONG (FWN) - China's first gold exchange, the Shanghai Gold
Exchange, started mock operations yesterday, the Xinhua news agency reported
in a despatch from Shanghai.
It quoted local sources as saying that the official launch is expected at
the beginning of next year.
The gold exchange, which will mainly target gold producers and
wholesalers, is expected to introduce market prices to the country's gold
trade, with the central bank gradually withdrawing from its monopoly
position, it said.
The exchange currently has 108 members, mainly including gold mining
companies, smelteries, jewelry companies, mints, foreign traders, and
commercial banks, it said.
It said only spot transactions are being conducted during the exchange's
initial days of operation. Futures trading is to be introduced when the
market becomes more mature.
rc/

FWN info: GLD

FSN56805 CMO METALS
2001-11-28 22:46:00 UTC

As you can see the actual trading does not start until sometime next year. I know they say 'early' but they have been opening this exchange with so many projected times.

The Chinese do not rush into things. Time does not have the same meaning for them, traditionally, as it does for us in the West. No, that does no mean they are not a ma--ana society as with our Latin friends, there is a profound difference.

There may be a little turbulence in the gold and silver markets, but better accept this for what it is - slight turbulence; rest assured the 'pilot' will have it well under control.

Pandagold (11/29/01; 05:20:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 66047)
Tg Best I can do with time, space, and subject matter constraints

I haven't tried to find out who, or what, prompted the article. The reasons are usually one of two - someone is confused and is trying to glean some truth, or, what is more often the case, it is all part of the agenda to create confusion as from where the world's problems and conflicts originate.

The covering up of all conspiracies, or mystique, rely on keeping the beholder confused. This is done in many ways, not least of them being - deflecting attention, and creating 'red herrings' and false trails.

In those 'who dunnits' we've all watched, they keep you guessing right up to the last moment by introducing so many 'possibilities'. But the smart investigator always looks for the 'main' beneficiary - the one who would have the greater motive. And, in all the ones I have seen, he has been right.

The most important ingredients are the clues - the facts.

In our trying to prove, or even understand, who is behind the events which are shaping this world we are at a tremendous disadvantage. There is so much put out as 'fact' - figures statistics, historical records, media reports, doctored photographs, government files - you name it, that we are stumped before we start. But how effective they are can be seen right here in the way so many of you jump on them and accept them as truths.

For example, and keeping things close to home, let's look at gold and silver. We can all quote, or look up, figures for above ground, and/or below ground stocks, and there is a figure (guesstimate) of the world's total supply in existence. And then there are figures for world demand. But how do we know how true these figures are? Who supplied those figures? Who owns and controls most of the world's supply?

If you want to get close to who runs this world, look for who are the main beneficiaries - the ones who will be (always are) the winners when all the dust has settled, after any outstanding, non natural, event - no matter how devastating Who hold most of the key positions in government and public administration- especially where finances, and trade are concerned, and who controls them? Is there a thread, a link, which binds them all? If you are not able to discern this, then save your time and energy and forget it.

Be not fooled by opposing rhetoric - even between governments. They are playing to the spectators, just as are the grunts and groans of the 'professional' wrestlers.

Be not fooled by what is said, watch what is done. Actions speak far louder, and more truth, than words.

Who makes the most money out of wars - the combatants, or those that supplied the weapons, or financed the operation by loans.

Who makes the most money out of gold and silver - the ones who use their expertise, and risk their lives in finding it and digging it out?

There is no New world Order. I will repeat that - there is NO NEW WORLD ORDER. The world order has been an on going process for centuries. During this process there have been many 'experiments' some which have violently opposed each other in an effort to arrive at one which provides the best 'ambience' for the elite to expand and maintain power in a growing, enlightened world. We are currently going through another directed change within that process.

In all fairness to the 'elite', does nature itself teach us anything better? Is it not a world where the fittest survive? Does not every living species in the animal kingdom have those that lead, and those that follow? Does not those that lead put down swiftly and often unmercifully any that challenge their leadership?

But man differs from all the rest in one main area, and it is this which projected us apart. It is a well developed means of communication, and of recording knowledge.
Whereas leadership in the animal kingdom rests on physical ( or perhaps in some cases sexual) power, in man it has, like life itself, become more sophisticated.

We developed ways to trade by the use of barter then money. Money became the store of power. Gold became the best 'money' for storage and remains so to this day among the elite - if for no other reason than 'TRADITION' - a concept they are steeped in (but there ARE other reasons). They were the first, and most accomplished, in harnessing that power.

With gold power, you can buy all the 'physical power' you need.

Sorry, I tried to keep this simple, hope I haven't made it too simple, and by that, paradoxically, confusing.

Never forget - he who has the gold, makes the rules. Repeat it to yourself many times. Then, if you still want to find answers, search out who really has, or controls, the most gold.

uponroof (11/29/01; 04:49:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 66046)
THX-1138
Thanks much for that Enron link last night. From reading those first person accounts it becomes clear why a bailout is less likely than we thought. Gross mismanagement, perhaps even the criminal kind, led to this debachle. It makes it very hard for a savior to write a check, while holding their nose. Not a very good example to other businesses and the American people. This may also explain why there is such a quiet about. Ahhhh, the shame of it all. Thanks again.

Canuck (11/29/01; 04:19:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 66045)
Euro Countdown
33 days

US$/Euro 0.889 +

POG 274.50 +

BR549 (11/29/01; 03:28:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 66044)
"Paper" is a world commodity
Horatio (msg#: 66038)---

Cute comments about "paper" and ink being worthless. But let's be fair that paper is a world commodity and derivatives and the manipulations of said "paper" is likewise a world problem--not just limited to the U.S. banks and U.S. Treasury.

Let's also remember that the merge defaulters Dynegy, which provided the straw that broke the Enron camel's back and propelled Enron into bankruptcy, are based in the equally corrupt U.K.

BR549

Pandagold (11/29/01; 02:37:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 66043)
Tg

I did read your link very quickly. I have read many such similar articles. I am trying to think of a simple way to comment that will give some explanation without taking up much time and space. Will get back. Not being evasive, please understand.
Panda

Pandagold (11/29/01; 02:31:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 66042)
Half full or half empty?

Is the glass half full because it has been only half filled, or is it half empty because half has been poured out?

(From Ski's post # 66036) The following snippet:-

PAUL VAN EEDEN
If you want to outperform in the sector you have chosen, good management is the most important. Gold is in a bull market. If the dollar declines to its trading range of the early 90's, the dollar-gold price should be in excess of $500. The dollar-gold price is down because of the strength of the dollar.

Me (Panda) Is the gold price down because of the strength of the dollar - or is the dollar strong because of the weakness of gold?

If the two relate in this way, and there was a need to intervene (manipulate) to keep one strong, which is the obvious choice?

Is there any need to permit any serious change at this very moment in time? Could the US continue to carry out its adopted mission (or be used to) with a collapsing dollar and a rapidly rising gold price (which would send up other commodity prices, and send alarm bells ringing around the world)?

Get excited at any little flurry in the pm's if you must, but don't lose your cool - YET!

This may be a time to start clipping on your bayonets (taking your positions)) in a quiet dignified manner, but not the time for going 'over the top' - against a well entrenched enemy.

Black Blade (11/29/01; 01:12:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 66041)
Palm to trim up to 20 percent of staff
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/cn/20011128/tc/palm_to_trim_up_to_20_percent_of_staff_1.html

Snippit:

Handheld maker Palm said Wednesday that it will cut another 250 jobs from its payroll but added that it is on track to post quarterly financial results within the range of previous estimates.

Black Blade: Yep, that's right - off to the "Bone Pile."

Black Blade (11/29/01; 01:09:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 66040)
IBM Plans to Cut About 1,200 Jobs
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20011128/tc/ibm_job_cuts_2.html

Snippit:

NEW YORK (AP) - Facing a stubborn slowdown in the microprocessor industry, IBM Corp. announced Wednesday it would cut about 1,000 jobs from its seven U.S. chip manufacturing and development plants and another 180 jobs at a storage technology plant in Minnesota.

Black Blade: More obsolete nonessential "Bones" sent to the "Bone Pile."

Black Blade (11/29/01; 01:02:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 66039)
AngloGold sweetens Normandy bid, tops rival
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011129/syd125338_1.html

Snippit:

SYDNEY, Nov 29 (Reuters) - The battle for Australia's Normandy Mining Ltd heated up on Thursday as South Africa's AngloGold Ltd added a cash sweetener, taking its bid to A$3.7 billion ($1.9 billion) and topping rival Newmont Mining Corp.

Black Blade: Fear settles in over AngloGold as they "MUST" outbid Newmont. If AngloGold fails they will very likely follow in Enron's footsteps as they may lack the ability to cover their hedge position. If NEM raises their bid, AngloGold certainly will. Either way, at this point AngloGold's Bobby Godsell must be sweating bullets as he now will have to either pay much more for Normandy than he anticipated or follow Enron's lead. Game over and check mate!

BTW, it appears that Enron was involved in all commodities trading including PMs and even weather contracts. This will make LTCM look like child's play. Also it is rumored that as Dynegy was looking over Enron's cooked booked, they found over $700 billion more in losses that ENE conviently failed to disclose. This gave Dynegy the right to bail out of the deal without having to pay the $365 million breakup penalty. For ENE - in a word - "GRIM"

Horatio (11/29/01; 00:44:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 66038)
Commodity Gumment style
Only the Federal Reserve banks and the U.S.Treasury can take a perfectly good commodity like PAPER,put some ink on it and make it worthless.

ViewYesterday's Discussion.

Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.

P.O. Box 460009
Denver, Colorado 80246-0009

1-800-869-5115 (US)
00-800-8720-8720 (EU)

303-399-6759 (Fax)

admin@usagold.com

Office Hours
6:00am - 5:00pm
(U.S. Mountain Time)
Monday - Friday

American Numismatic Association
Member since 1975

Industry Council for Tangible Assets

USAGOLD Centennial Precious Metals is a BBB Accredited Business. Click for the BBB Business Review of this Gold, Silver & Platinum Dealers in Denver CO

Zero Complaints

Wednesday February 8
website support: sitemaster@usagold.com
Site Map - Privacy- Disclaimer
The USAGOLD logo and stylized gold coin pile are trademarks of Michael J. Kosares.
© 1997-2012 Michael J. Kosares / USAGOLD All Rights Reserved