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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 10/29/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

THX-1138 (10/29/00; 23:51:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 40235)
Rocky IV = Euro vs. US$

To me, the entrance of the Euro into the world in Jan 200 was like Rocky Balboa entering the boxing ring in the USSR with a russian crowd all around. Throughout the fight, Rocky is getting his arse kicked but is still standing. Right now the Euro is in I would guess the eighth round. Just as the russian crowd in the movie was against the American in the begining they switched sides at the end. Same will happen for the Euro. Be patient. The knockout blow will come soon enough. Iraq and Jordan were the first of the crowd to start chanting for the underdog. More will follow.

elevator guy (10/29/00; 23:38:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 40234)
Got off track for a while.....
Capitulation comes to those who can not reason about the future of the dollar, any more than when looking at dark clouds one can not predict rain.

What are we expecting? That paper gold will see immense gains, as denominated in dollars? Look, lets get it straight, the paper gold game is totally in the pocket of TPTB, and is used as a false indicator to show the dollar strong. They will not let that little game go free of their controls, not while the bigger game of one trillion traded dollars/day continues.

Gold, (I mean paper gold, and its price discovery mechanism)
is just the little issue, its just a little weather vane, with an arm from TPTB, twisting it around constantly so it points toward "No Inflation". (Even with oil going through the roof, and the spectre of war in the Middle East!) Uhm, gee, do you suppose the gold market is rigged? Nahh, couldn't be!

So dont any physical gold holders get despondent because the current price discovery mechanism we call Comex, doesn't show you as wealthy. Thats the illusion that will stay in place until something unseats the dollar.

And if the dollar goes "South", thats the time to worry and get despondent! Our rich material way of life will change drastically and permanently. As much as I beleive in a fair fiat money system, and free gold, I can't say that I would like to see our way of life change to get that fair system.

And physical gold holders should know that no amount of wealth can not keep you absolutely safe, and in fact may be a cause for worry in its self, if the "have nots" find out youv'e got it made. In Orange County, CA, its not uncommon for a violent residential burglary to occur in homes where the residents are known to have gold/other valubles stashed away. Usually, its sort of an "inside job". There are certain ethinic groups there that highly value non-fiat stores of wealth, and it makes them a target.

So whatever you do, do it very discretely.

SHIFTY (10/29/00; 20:31:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 40233)
PPU Periodic Ponzi Update
http://home.columbus.rr.com/rossl/gold.htm
Nasdaq 3,278.36 + 10,590.62 = 13,868.98 divide by 2 = 6,934.49 ponzi

Up 79.63 Ponzi points

$hifty

P.S. Link by RossL.
Thank you Sir.

Mr Gresham (10/29/00; 20:31:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 40232)
"Minsky's Analysis, the European Single Currency, and the Global Financial System
http://econwpa.wustl.edu:8089/eps/mac/papers/9904/9904003.pdf
Paper by Malcolm Sawyer in March, '99. A few minutes to download.

From intro:

In his entry in the Biographical Dictionary of Dissenting Economists... Hyman Minsky summarized 'the doctrines most associated' with him as:

1. The interpretation of Keynes as an investment theory of the business cycle and a financial theory of investment...

2. The 'financial instability hypothesis' which holds that over a period of good times the financial structures of a dynamic capitalist economy endogenously evolve from being robust to being fragile, and that once there is a sufficient mix of financially fragile institutions, the economy becomes susceptible to debt deflations.

3. The significance and necessity of Central Banks to be lenders of last resort in order to help abort and contain debt deflations and therefore the thrust towards deep depressions.

4. The cash-flow analysis of financial relations, which emphasizes the flows of incomes... from the productive part of the economy that can validate financial obligations...

5. The necessity and significance of big government...

6. The significance of financial innovations as reactions to perceived profit opportunities, and

7. The tiers approach to the balance of payments, which emphasizes the significance of international payments as shifts of profits and other incomes among national economies, and how balance of payments cash flows are necessary to validate the payment commitments on international indebtedness'



Actually, it's a .pdf document, so that's enough typing for me tonight. (Doug Noland at prudentbear.com obviously thinks Minsky is the economist to study for the coming meltdown) Now, off to read the rest...





ET (10/29/00; 18:51:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 40231)
Al

Hey Al - thanks for the reply. You wrote in part;

"You may have little use for Republicans. That is your choice. But will you and FOA choose to use Euros with their
partial gold backing, if you can, over the use of a nothing backed dollar? I would love to see you say no to this. Or
will you wait for your ideal. Full gold backing? And use the dollar in the meantime? The euro is better than the dollar
if it is backed at least partially by gold. The Republicans are better than the consequences of a Gore administration.
It gives you four more years to push the fully backed gold agenda. Try to get Gore to listen to you."

Al, I think you misunderstand. The question is not whether I will use one currency or money over another, rather will whatever I use reflect the value of the good or service I'm willing to trade for that currency or money. I'm willing to use whatever medium of exchange is available but I must always discount that medium in my mind regarding its future purchasing power. There is no requirement that any currency be fully backed by gold to perform this function but gold is a handy 'standard' of measurement when comparing what you are giving versus what you are receiving.

As to your contention that the Republicans are better than the Democrats, I used to agree with you. Some time ago a friend pointed out that the socialists are after your labor and the fascists are after your rights. He further declared that it is exceeding more difficult to acquire more rights than more money. I had to agree. You of course can make up your own mind as to which parties fall into each category and to what degree.

I have no desire to push a fully gold-backed currency agenda. The trouble is that that should have been done back around WWI or so when it would have mattered. This problem will not be solved politically, it will be solved by the free market. I'll continue what I consider the good fight for free markets and take my chances.

I don't think you'll even get your local mayor to listen to you until the fallout from the current system's meltdown occurs but of course by then it won't matter as your town will be as broke as every other. Someone mentioned last night the History Channel's showing of the 'Crash' which aired last night. The story of the US from 1900 to 1930 narrated by Jim Grant. The 90's can't have mirrored the 20's any more closely. I suspect the result will be the same as the problem with the money is identical. I hope you get a chance to see it if you missed it.

The only question is what will those that think they control the free markets' response be? FOA says they will inflate until the money becomes meaningless unlike the 30's when money became dear. I agree, politically they have no choice. FOA is also right regarding the Euro being a choice today that wasn't around the last few times the dollar collapsed in relative value to assets. In the end however we will find ourselves SOL just like those in the 30's. Same problem - same result. That's the great thing about history - the road is the same, just the route taken varies with each trip!

Thanks again for the reply. We don't tend to agree on some things but you always make me think. Thanks!

tedw (10/29/00; 18:02:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 40230)
GATA, Inflation
http://www.usagold.com

I am glad to see that Reg Howe (with the supoort of GATA)
has decided to take legal action with the BIS.

You may recall some time ago, I suggested a legal battle was appropriate and what was GATA waiting for. Chris Powell at that time responded by saying the money wasnt there for a legal fight.

It really doesnt take all that much money, although I will certainly send a donation to Reg Howe. All it take is a knowledge of your rights and a willingness to stand up for them.

I have read some of Reg Howes legal work at his site,The Golden Sextant, and its first rate. He is a good attorney and a patriot at that.

I think we should all get behind his efforts.

At the same time, I am a little bit pessimistic for I have seen that the Court system is corrupt and when powerful banking institutions are involved legal principle will be bent for the sake of expediency (why else do we have a fiat money system?). Nevertheless, God works in mysterious ways
and I think we should all get behind the effort.


On another note I received a notice from Airborne that they are adding a 1% additional surcharge to their service. That makes 4% this year. Good thing there is no inflation.

Oilman (10/29/00; 17:56:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 40229)
Trailguide
I actually don't know why you are missing the point. OK. I havw mentioned that I developed the iteration process back in 1989, to solve a serious hydrocarbon economic evaluation in South Africa. Even a leading global oil company (maybe Shell?), was not able to solve this problem. A leading stockbroker here in South Arica (read: Merrill Lynch) was not able to solve the problem of iteration, in spite of employing a leading South African Professor in mathematics for three years, and paying him substantial (very substantial!) fees. The problem remained unsolved. I solved it in Feb 1989, before I was employed by Merrill Lynch!. Ever wondered why there was a miracle in South Africa in 1990? So why did the Berlin wall fold in 1989? Maybe the Soviets also used iteration to forecast their future for the first time in 1989 (ever heard of an input-ouput economic model)? So who exploded serious bombs in the South Atlantic in 1979? I guess that the Federation is mighty powerful. OK?

Al Fulchino (10/29/00; 17:48:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 40228)
ET
Gee! I was hoping you were in agreement too. And to suprise you, I will say that all YOU SAY about Rebpublicans is also true. Yet they still are not Gore. Why, did Naderites pull some ads in California? Answer to prevent too much Gore support from being drained over to Nader, leaving them partly responsible for a Bush win. They see it! They see that Bush winning is is worse than Gore winning. To them anyway. THAT is the part of the essence of politics, my friend.

In regards to your quotation of FOA. We, all three, agree.

You may have little use for Republicans. That is your choice. But will you and FOA choose to use Euros with their partial gold backing, if you can, over the use of a nothing backed dollar? I would love to see you say no to this. Or will you wait for your ideal. Full gold backing? And use the dollar in the meantime.? The euro is better than the dollar if it is backed at least partially by gold. The Republicans are better than the consequences of a Gore administration. It gives you four more years to push the fully backed gold agenda. Try to get Gore to listen to you.

Regards.

auspec (10/29/00; 16:55:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 40227)
Book-The Secret Gold Treaty
London based GATA fan and supporter David Guyatt has
a new book out and it is my pleasure to bring it
to your attention. It can be located on the
internet at:

http://www.solari.com/goldtreaty/.

"THE SECRET GOLD TREATY is
an extraordinary investigation into the discrete
world of the "black" gold market - a market that
does not officially exist but which trades spectacular quantities of bullion on
a secret and private
basis. The story contains stunning revelations about
the way our governments do business and lays bare
numerous hitherto secret aspects of the way money
works in the world of elite power and corporate
hegemony."

THE SECRET GOLD TREATY...
is by David Guyatt, one of the top investigative
journalists in the world of high finance. David
spent twenty-eight years as an investment banker in
the City of London, before deciding to use his skills
and training within some of the most powerful
financial institutions in the world to bring the
truth of what is really going on to readers around
the world.

THE SECRET GOLD TREATY is....
based on thousands of pages of confidential
documents, numerous interviews and other significant
material collected over a four and a half year
period of intense investigation, and blows the lid
on the most explosive secret of World War II...GOLD!
War gold has been used since the end of World War
II to fuel the Cold War and to pay for narcotics,
it has been "borrowed" to stabilise shaky national
currencies and to create undreamt of riches for
the few. Above all, it is now the "noble" lever
that is engineering a new "cashless" global
financial system designed to effect control over
the world as never before.



I can't wait to get this book in the mail!!! The above description was "borrowed" from the GATA Gang, hope they don't mind my taking this liberty. Auspec



Mr Gresham (10/29/00; 15:46:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 40226)
Trurl #40209
That was a fine fine posting and much more than just a review of Bernstein's book. Your own thinking and writing are excellent and I look forward to reading more from you.


beesting (10/29/00; 15:38:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 40225)
The Money Masters.
Just finished watching a 3 hour very educational video with the above title.
What the video is about:
It goes into great detail on how banking has influenced world events through out history, and gives a political history of banking in the U.S.A.
The video suggests President Lincoln's "Greenbacks" were the greatest form of money the USA has ever used.(Unbacked paper currency issued by the U.S. Dept. of The Treasury)
The video also mentioned President Jackson(after Lincoln)was the only President in history to pay off "The National Debt."A huge debt at the time because of the Civil War.
The video ends by saying:
The (private Bank)Federal Reserve System should be abolished and replaced by the U.S. Treasury who would issue a form of paper money similar to Lincoln's "Greenbacks."

beesting comments on the video:
1.The video failed to mention that the U.S. Constitution specifically states that; "Make anything but Gold and Silver coin a tender in payment of debts."
2.The video failed to mention how to honestly value the proposed U.S. money when it comes to trading with other countries.
3.The video failed to mention the Equalization Stablization Fund part of the current U.S. Department of the Treasury.(I think they didn't know about it's existence)
4. The video failed to mention a fool proof method of keeping the Department of Treasury honest.

A further observation:
Many years ago I lived in Japan for about 5 years. At that time the crime of housebreaking(breaking and entering) was punishable at the SAME level as murder, many, many years in jail if convicted. No ones house that I knew of was ever broken into. ANY Government employee was forbidden to enter a house without the occupants consent.

What do we have today in the USA?
Housebreakers(1st time)get their hands slapped, 2nd offenders a slightly harder slap. Housebreaking is considered a "MINOR" crime! A few years ago our house was broken into and value-ables stolen, and I knew who did it,and reported who did it to local law inforcement. End results; No arrests! No returned property!

The" War on Drugs" is used as a further abuse of Amendment IV of the U.S. Constitution:
The Right of the People to be Secure in their Persons, Houses,Papers, and Effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, Shall Not be Violated!!!! Is that Plain English or Not???

Now lets examine who would benifit the most from a society where valuables may or may not be safe!

Why, it would be the BANKERS, because the general population would be inticed to keep all valuables(GOLD, Silver, etc.) in perceived safer places than their home.(Bank vaults)
But, would these valuables really be safe?
Answer....NO,,, because, I don't know the exact number, but there are many, many agencies, Government and others who can and do freeze all assets, at the drop of a hat!
Why am I writing this last part?
Because last week I had the pleasure of talking to a lady who was interested in buying Gold but didn't know how to keep it safe,a common concern in the USA!
Thanks for Reading...Those in the Know...are Buying Gold....beesting.


justamereBear (10/29/00; 15:13:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 40224)
Turkey hunter
currie@mqcinc.com

The short answer is that my advice very much depends on what your ultimate purpose is. I am prepared to post a generic respose here, or if you want a more specific one you can email me at the above address. (plus I have an ulterior motive that is off topic but pertinant to my plans as they regard the future that I see.) (I am trying to collect a list of like minded people, which may or MAY NOT be of use depending on how things shake out. Anyone at the forum is invited to email me. I am especially interested in widely spaced geographic locations. Please include your handle, preferably in the subject line.)

In either case it is going to take some while, as the answer is going to be lengthy, and I only type with 1 finger, so I'm talking some hours of work. Then again I also have a couple of other things to do tonite. If you have not contacted me I will post here.

Best regards



YGM (10/29/00; 12:21:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 40223)
PH in LA
I concur totally w/ your comments....
on the bigger picture. Although the net is and has, had such an awesome effect on shared conciousness of these events, the end result may only be that a very few wisened individuals will be in a position to profit from, or a least survive the coming financial armegeddon. Many believers will find themselves vindicated one day soon and the praise for foresight and understanding passed on to these few, will belong to a handful of dedicated individuals
whom we all knew and listened to with open minds....Best Regards...YGM.

ET (10/29/00; 12:13:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 40222)
Al

Hey Al - I hate to disappoint you, but frankly I'm not in agreement with either you or the esteemed intellectual Lew Rockwell. I was trying to point out that all intellectuals are not quite so self-righteous as you had mentioned in a previous post. Rockwell is a great read all the time.

I actually have little use for the Republicans as I see them as having demonstrated their contempt for liberty and free markets. Their 'War on Drugs' is nothing more than an assault on the Bill of Rights in the name of protection. It results in confiscation of assets without de facto due process. Further they are no doubt the party of imperialism and I'm philosophically opposed to war. Lastly they are no friend of small business/free markets as they have been the architects of the corporate socialism we see today. This isn't to say I find anything useful regarding the Democrats either. It seems to be a one party system in most regards.

I'd like to reiterate a truth that FOA mentioned yesterday regarding the human experience. He wrote;

"But in a fractional reserve fiat system, people make and break these money rules and use whatever advantage
gained to overlord others. Some of us explain this by saying it's this faction or that faction doing it to all us in
another faction. But power groups-are-us and indeed our whole political process is but the playing of factions
against each other. So, I leave out the blame placing, preferring to see our actions as a people's will. Or
political will in the end.

"It seems that in our human experience, there is no end of reason why we should not avoid most losses and
expand credit just a little more. War, special circumstances, social need, emergencies all add up to a
constantly expanding debt system and changing the debt creation limits to meet those special needs. Simply
put, a fiat system run by humans will not cut off the arm of single dynamic group when it (the system) can be
engineered to cut off the finger of everyone! This is the monetary loss phenomenon we must understand and
deal with today. It's the only deck of cards we can play with if staying in the game is a desire.

"Every time excess credit is created it robs one of us of a finger of our wealth. Even though we cannot
immediately see the general price increases such a money expansion creates, it's dilution of our own wealth is
all the same and very real."

Now 'that' is the essense of politics, yes?



auspec (10/29/00; 11:21:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 40221)
The Battle Draweth Nigh!!/Repost
Hello to the Faithful!
Word is now in from GATA that a large battle looms dead ahead, excitement on the horizon. Our resourceful and ever present enemy has let their guard down, giving THE CAUSE opportunity for the long awaited victory. We must fund this campaign fully in order to send forth Knight Reginald Howe to his predestined triumph. Please join us in sending coin to this worthwhile endeavor at the following address;
Gold anti-Trust Action Committee, Inc.
c/o Chris Powell Sec/Treas
7 Villa Louisa Rd.
Manchester Conn. 06043-7541
You may make an online pledge at www.GATAComm@aol.com
See posts from yesterday #40180 & 40181.
Donations are tax deductible, please be generous. ACTION it will be!!! Thank you in advance.



PH in LA (10/29/00; 11:10:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 40220)
Getting ready for the "Big One"
"...half of the banking systems' derivatives will be in the hands of just one financial institution. Could this be another Long Term Capital Management in the making?" YGM

YGM:
My own read on this is that by concentrating everything in one institution's portfolio, they are all (banks, congress, BIS, etc--see below!) actually preparing cold-bloodedly for the big one. When it happens, they can either let just one big player go down the tubes and sanitize the rest, or (more likely) just bail out the one "rogue" bank that just "happened" to fail "for reasons beyond anyone's control" (ha, ha!). That new legislation requested by Greenspan (and just passed so quickly and casually by acclamation) is part of that same preparation. Also, the attempt to exclude the private investors from the BIS looks suspicious to me, too. If it is (suspicious), it sort of points towards a time frame scenario. They seem to want to be ready for serious changes as early as January 8, 2001, don't they? Could come at any moment after that... Makes you kind of wonder what effect a lawsuit from Reg Howe might have. Delay the big one? Probably not, when you think about it. They'll just go ahead and do it now and then spend as many years as it takes to make it final in the judicial process. These guys aren't stupid... but it sures makes them look bad to have so much attention trained right on them while they pull their strings behind the scenes!

WAC (Wide Awake Club) (10/29/00; 10:56:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 40219)
Is this supposed to frighten the arabs


The Car That Runs On Air
http://members.theglobe.com/Mary226/top_secret/science_news.html
October 26,2000
According to BBC News urban transport could soon be revolutionized with the launching this week in South Africa of a prototype new car which designers say runs on air.
It is being predicted that the e.Volution will be able to travel up to 200km (120 miles) for only 30 US cents at 60 miles an hour. The car, which resembles a small minibus, is being promoted by the slogan "Simple, Economic and Clean", but details of how the vehicle will work remain sketchy. The e. Volution prototype will be unveiled at Auto Africa Expo 2000 in Johannesburg this week and is being touted as the first viable alternative to cars that run on conventional fuels. Researchers have been working for many years to produce 'eco-friendly' cars, but so far these attempts have not been successful. Some models already in development use hydrogen as a fuel. It is expected to sell in South Africa for about R74, 000 ($10,000) which is on a par with a medium-sized saloon car.

Helen Brown whom heads "Zero Pollution Motors", the company which has the rights to manufacture the car locally, says it will be ideal for urban transport. A former French formula one engineer Guy Negre, who has spent 30 years searching for an alternative to the traditional oil-fuelled engine, pioneered the compression engine technology.
The piston engine is powered by the release of compressed air, which is stored in tanks, very similar to scuba diving tanks, attached to the underside of the car. A compressor driven by an electric motor connected to a standard electric outlet does the recharge of the compressed air tanks. A rapid recharge, using a high-pressure air pump, is also possible, In little as 3 minuets. The designers of e. Volution say it will be possible to merely plug the vehicle into any electrical power source to fill it up.

In addition to air, also function with the use of traditional fuel. Petrol, diesel, natural or town gas, at very low consumption levels. The change of source of energy is handled electronically based on the speed of the vehicle; e.g. below 60 km/h it runs on air and higher speeds it runs on fuel.They are expected to be available for public sale in 1 to 3 years de [ending on what type of vehicle you wish to purchase. The first commercial sold vehicles will be for the urban markets, with products including taxis, delivery vans and pickup trucks.

The body of the vehicle weighs only 700kg and the engine itself are a mere 35kg. This means that the vehicle can theoretically be driven for up to 10 hours in an urban environment at an average speed of 80km/h.

If the e.Volution lives up to all the hype, it could offer a serious challenge to the current motor vehicle market. There are currently two factories in France, with the first models expected on the streets later this year. There are five factories planned for Mexico and Spain, with three in Australia.

But South Africa will be the second country after France to open a factory and begin production. Helen Brown says her company aims to set up a production line in the province of Gauteng by next year, with the first cars off the production line and onto the salesroom floor by early 2002.
" It's really an anti-globalization production idea," she said.
"The aim of the project is to cut costs and create jobs locally, serving the consumer market directly." With petrol and diesel prices going up, and the price of oil subject to fluctuations, the Middle East crisis and occasional shortfalls, motorists might be only too happy to "go green" if it means a lifetime saving on fuel costs.
---------------------------------
If the cost is true to be around $10,000 I'll Be thinking about buying it. It would be my first new car. The heck with the oil companies. No longer will they be getting rich from me.
Mary



turkey hunter (10/29/00; 10:55:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 40218)
@justamerebear
Thanks for you comment concerning my question. I'm new to this field and never have invested in anything in all my life. All I know is the dollar ain't going to be worth what it says, so I have exchanged all my savings for physical gold and silver minus some cash I've kept for emergencies. I bought my first treasury tube of gold last June. How does one go about buying into another couttries currency such as Euro's? I know a person who is in the financial business. He went to Europe 2 years ago and wined and dined with the big boys. He said the Europian bankers are going to pull the rug out from underneathe the United States and the Euro will be #1. There just not quite ready to do it yet. Turkey Hunter

YGM (10/29/2000; 10:23:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 40217)
Also from the previous site
GOLDEN PAPER..........
The Problem With Golden Paper

In the potential meltdown of LTCM, whose derivative book consisted mainly of interest rate, foreign exchange, equity, and credit derivatives, there was a ready supply of the paper assets such as bonds, equities, and currencies in relation to their derivative book. In the case of the bullion banks, the world of physical gold is far smaller than the world of gold derivatives. The annual production of the world's gold mines is roughly 2,500 tonnes. The total supply of gold in the vaults of the world's central banks is only 33,000 tonnes.[ vii ] The problem becomes apparent when a financial or geo-political crisis erupts as to where the gold exists in the vaults of central banks or in the form of jewelry. This problem of paper gold and physical gold could become the central banker's worst nightmare.

As if anticipating that problems are afoot, Treasury Secretary, Lawrence Summers and Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, have been lobbying Congress to approve legislation dealing with a potential derivatives crisis before they adjour. As a result of those efforts, the House passed HR4541. The bill is designed to reduce risk to the nation's banking system should a major financial institution experience a derivative explosion. This piece of legislation being promoted by the Clinton Administration would allow a bank or investment firm that becomes insolvent due to derivatives to use the net value of its losses rather than the gross value. The purpose of which would be to avoid tying up trading contracts in bankruptcy proceedings.

The New York Mercantile Exchange found the bill's passage appalling. In effect, HR4541 removes the energy and metals markets from public scrutiny and regulatory oversight. Could the Administration know something that the financial markets don't yet know? Usually, where there is smoke, there is fire. With tensions in the Middle East rising, oil prices escalating, inflation on the move and the stock market in turmoil, the price of gold is going down as a result of the bullion banks and their derivative book. Maybe Washington and Wall Street are preparing for the next bailout.

The price of gold is declining along with silver, at a time when they are both in short supply. World crises abound every which way you look. Our financial markets remain shaky, and John Q. Public is waking up to the fact that inflation is becoming real as he pays his bills the first of every month. Washington is intervening in the oil markets, the stock market, the bond market and the currency markets. The moral hazard argument is now at work. We know about bank deposit guarantees. Now it looks like we'll have financial market guarantees. Hold on to your wallets ¾ this is going to get interesting.

If you don't want to be struck by lightning, you don't stand under a tall tree in an open field during a lightning storm. The same wisdom can be applied to the world of derivatives. Our financial markets hang on a thin thread of probability and belief in a bell-shaped curve that such an event will never occur. Yet history reveals otherwise. The lesson of this last decade tell us that rogue waves and rogue traders do hit the financial markets. So far we've managed to survive them. The academics will tell us that their models will help us to avoid them. They have endeavored to convince the financial world of their mathematical certainty. But the real world isn't full of certainty.

There will come a day without warning, at a time when nobody expects, when that rogue wave will appear. It will be a day when events overwhelm the financial markets... when the house of paper will fall... when our financial institutions will be put to the supreme test... when the mettle of a man is tested... when faith in our institutions will be called into question. It will only be on that day and in that hour, that we will know if the Holy Grail of Finance truly exists.

***GO PHYSICAL & "GO GATA"......your 'ex' Goldminer'...YGM

YGM (10/29/2000; 10:16:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 40216)
EXCELLENT FINANCIAL SITE.....
http://www.financialsense.com/series2/rogue.htm
Excerpt from pages........

Rogue Roulette

The investment portfolios of our nation's largest banks have turned into casinos. Credit exposure, as a percent of risk-based capital, has increased; while trading profits, as a percent of gross revenue, have also gone up. Derivatives allow institutions to leverage up their investments by enabling them to control a larger amount of an investment product. Going back to my example of IBM, an option contract can control the same amount of shares of IBM versus owning the shares outright with less money. Add leverage to these contracts and you can control vast amounts of investments or markets. Consider LTCM, which had under $4 billion in equity, $140 billion in debt and controlled $1.25 trillion in notional value derivative contracts. That is leverage carried to infinity!

Rogues at The Wheel

Originally, the derivative business began as a way of insuring against risk. In the 90's the world of derivatives turned into a business of speculation used by institutions, hedge funds and well-heeled investors to leverage their returns. The hedge funds, in particular, remain almost exclusively the domain of the wealthy. They are unregulated investment pools that aren't registered with the SEC. They can concentrate their portfolios, use leverage, and bet the ranch without prudent concerns for diversification. When they blow-up, as in the case of LTCM, they create nuclear shock waves throughout the financial system.

Some day, this new form of leverage which has permeated the tony-world of Wall Street will be regretted. With an almost religious faith, bank and brokerage trading rooms have adopted the mathematical certainties of the academics' models. As if the world and the mindset of investors can be contained by the certitude of the professors' "black box." Most investment bank trading floors are staffed by PhDs who have studied and believe in the "Holy Grail" of the Black-Scholes model. The conceit and hubris of Wall Street is unfathomable. It is the ultimate deception that their mathematical models could eliminate wars, pestilence, stupidity, and being struck by lightning in the real world.

Derivative Positions - A Telling Story

Credit Equivalent Exposure of the 25 Commercial Bank and Trust Companies
With The Most Off Balance Sheet Derivative Contracts
June 30, 2000 in $ millions

Commercial Banks & Trust Companies Total
Assets Total
Derivatives Total Credit Exposure to Capital Ratio
#1 Chase Manhattan Bank $320,476 $13,927,622 /428.6%
#2 Morgan Guaranty Trust Company of New York $173,606 $9,535,288 /817.6%
#3 Bank of America $604,683 $6,990,993 /158.9%
#4 Citibank $356,826 $4,702,375 /165.7%
#5 First Union National Bank $236,103 $964,552 /35.4%
#6 Bank One National Association $95,795 $892,706 /105.7%
#7 Fleet National Bank $147,334 $377,209 /18.2%

Total for all 25 Commercial Banks $2,867,338 $39,026,989 /84.63%
Source: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency


Just look at these tables. They depict the derivative position of our nation's leading banks. Even more disconcerting is the fact that most of these derivatives (95%) are concentrated in just seven banks. The two graphs below depict an alarming picture of risk being undertaken by our chief financial institutions in the pursuit of profits. Another aspect of this picture is the degree of credit exposure these banks have in relation to their capital ratio. For Chase Manhattan Bank and J.P. Morgan it is over 400% and 800% respectively. Also, consider the fact that these two banks represent more than 50% of the banking systems' derivative holdings ¾ and now the two banks are merging. In other words, over half of the banking systems' derivatives will be in the hands of just one financial institution. Could this be another Long Term Capital Management in the making? [ iv ]



techbull.... (10/29/2000; 9:45:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 40215)
Crisis
I am not an economist, nor do I even consider myself to be overly intelligent. My knowledge comes mostly from what I observe happening in the financial markets. It is difficult for me to know, if my own understanding of events is limited by my naiveté. To suggest that my interpretation of economic forces is correct, would be overly presumptuous. That being said, I would like to give a little of my own thoughts. Please excuse any spelling or grammar mistake that I may have made. Also much of what I am about to say has already been presented in a more than able way.

My first area of concern, began a few years ago with first oil crisis. The price of oil began dropping like a rock. All of the analysts began telling us, that this was the beginning of a new paradigm in the world of commodities. The supply/demand picture suggested to us, that the volatility of commodity prices could easily be managed, and that the only reason why price would increase was due to hoarding. If you stop hoarding, the price was likely to remain low. In a world of increasing demand for efficiency, reducing inventory was an incredibly powerful cost cutting measure.
The general feeling being, that most countries would continually increase supply to offset the revenue shortfall due
to low prices. Commodity producers would have to find their own efficiencies to remain competitive.

OPEC it seems, in a dramatic show of unity, realized that this was a futile way of running a business. If they could convince all member countries to somewhat reduce supply, they could increase rather dramatically the price of oil. They were extremely dependent on that money, and losing revenue, dramatically reduced their ability to fund production. In essence I believe that OPEC's move, saved the world from an almost certain oil crisis. The problem is that instead of seeing the probable value of investing in oil companies, the market seemed to be punishing these companies, by selling their stock. It was after all creating an inflationary situation that was would have a negative effect on the price of their "new economy" stocks (the nerve of these people). What they still don't seem to understand, is that without a boom in the oil business, this oil crisis is yet to emerge. It is no wonder considering the new world analysts seem to be completely ignorant of the old world realities.

The even bigger problem in my opinion, is this misguided belief that productivity increases have come as a result of the technology revolution. People for too long now have been under the belief that if only they worked hard enough, they were on the road to mass riches, and it was hard to blame them, when they were making money hand over fist in the stock market. People were exchanging real money (please excuse the term) in exchange for the promise of even bigger money in the long term in the form of options. This has changed quite dramatically in just a short period of time. Many companies are experiencing something totally new to them, angry disgruntled workers. People do not work for free.

My third and final point is this nasty problem of an ever increasing US dollar with respect to the Euro. The US dollar is becoming increasingly overvalued. This cannot continue, but right now the US is in a catch 22 situation. If the dollar continues to increase, it will choke their ability to export. If the dollar decreases, it creates a situation where commodity prices begin to accelerate upwards. This increases inflation. We saw this quite dramatically, when the Euro intervention had the nasty effect of driving up the price of gold. It would be only a matter of time before all other commodities followed. At this point it does not matter which avenue is finally taken, the results will be the same. Massive inflation, and a crippling of the world economy. Hiding this from the masses may postpone the inevitable, but it can only make matters worse in the long run.

If people still don't believe this is happening, all they need to ask themselves is why the US dollar is rising so dramatically. It is considered a safe haven. This means that already people believe a crisis is coming the only problem is that the US is not immune to it. Just as the price of gold leapt to new highs versus the US dollar and subsequently fell, so will the US dollar reverse when panic sets in. A depression, I believe, is just around the corner. I'm surprised that both presidential candidates are not trying to lose the election.











justamereBear (10/29/2000; 9:12:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 40214)
tg 40206 Turl 40209

tg
I appologise for not giving you credit. I suppose I am like many others here, and in the pressure to earn a few bucks in order to by more golden coins, I sometimes just skim what I know to be a whole bunch of librarians working on my behalf. Sometimes I think the people on this forum are far to polite. I developed this independantly from a sharefin post on the farside, and went back to see if anyone else had spotted it. Turns out I had missed Zenidea's post too. That is why I posted in such a strong manner, to bring more attention to it.

Turl 40209
Thank you for your post. I had spotted the book in my ramblings, and while I found it interesting, had simply made a mental note, and had done nothing about it. Guess I will have to go out today and buy it.

And now, having spent most of the night with HR4541, I think I will nap a bit.


wolavka (10/29/2000; 7:53:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 40213)
Money has a greater value than human life?
Titanic, titanic, titanic 1912.
Eastland 1915.

1523 death toll titanic
844 death toll eastland

Of the 1523 on titanic 694 where crew members.

The loss of life on eastland was higher based upon passengers. Most immigrants from western electric, chicago.

Both diasters, but covered up regarding cause.
good ship usa next big diaster.

dragonfly (10/29/2000; 7:39:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 40212)
trurl
I liked your post. It stimulated some thoughts. Especially the part about the way the Russion people were plundered. Nasty business that. Get the hampsters running on the wheel for a few decades, capture that negentropy in a bottle, then see how long it glows. The hampsters see the light as it is leaving.

I think the way it is done here is that the non-essentials keep most from watching the real balls of Property, Gold, Power, Freedom - which get "stolen" in our system through a simple sleight of hand trick. Non-essential distractions.

If the 'fluff' (wasted activity, fruitless motion, useless manufactured goods etc.) gets monetized, and the hampsters will freely trade same for trinkets produced, maybe the monetization itself is the means to convert hampster wheel-spinning into long-term wealth.

So in that sense the non-essentials drive the economy in the same way that a carrot on a stick will coax work from a horse. Only in this case it's a plastic carrot.

I like your definition of gold being saved labor. So after a lifetime of going around and around, those of us who know these things will have some Rounds and some more Rounds.



Parsifal (10/29/2000; 7:07:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 40211)
Bankruptcy netting bill approved by House
http://federal.gallerywatch.com/news/articleviewer/displaypressrelease.asp?PRID=8663
" . . . Rep. Leach, Chairman of the House Banking and Financial Services Committee said, 'Without liquidation procedures of this nature, . . .'"

Looks like the bill is meant to legalize actions the Fed may use to liquify bank assets that, otherwise, in an illiquid state, could deflate the economy. Passage of this bill supports the prediction that our economic system is headed toward failure by inflation rather than failure by deflation.

Newest weird thing yet to be explained in the FOA/Another scenario, still, is the contention that the BIS has been helping to hold down the POG.

Parsifal


dragonfly (10/29/2000; 6:47:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 40210)
Minsky, rogue waves, derivitive titanic
So what are they doing? Setting up an insurance deal for anybody who deals in derivitives? If Minsky is right about finance being right at the heart of it, and they want to put all the risk under one roof (inside one hull)--well the boat gets pretty long and seems to be just that much more vulnerable to the unexpected "rogue wave". Maybe misery loves hostages but the smaller the boat the better in my book.

This relates to the secession discussion in a way. The size thing, thickness of the hull (principles), freedom to maneuver. Maybe Schumacher was right about smallness and beauty after all.

Trurl (10/29/2000; 6:18:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 40209)
A review of *The Power of Gold* by Peter Bernstein

I haven't seen any major discussion or review of this book on this forum, so I thought I might try. Fair warning: I'm not a literary critic, and my spell checker isn't working. Moreover, I don't post much on this forum since most of my thinking would be more suited to the ‘Hall of Fun’ than to serious and dry discussion of financial matters of the day. Example: To summarize the book in 3 words, like the biochemists say, "it's amino world."

I recommend this book to anyone seriously interested in gold. I always like to read a long history perspective in a few sittings. The sweeping view one gains of the connectedness of the world, and the similarities to today is truly amazing, especially for people like me who never liked history in school. This review will be more a stream of conciousness of takeaway items I have found.

I was struck first by the thought of why I am so lucky to live in a time of peace and prosperity ( living in the USA )? The bulk of the history covered by this book was rough on the common folks.

The book makes the point that rich people often think that its their cleverness or beauty or force of personality which causes their wealth, and also the appeal they extend to onlookers is really a function of this, and not their wealth. Gold fits in wonderfully with this need for display.

Spain in the mid 16th century is a good example of this. To quote from the book, "Once the gold began arriving in quantity, the Spanish were far more proficient at spending than at producing. The massive imports of gold and silver stimulated the spending skills at the same time that they stifled Spain's incentive to produce."

More than anything, this reminded me of present day America, where "consumer" spending, consisting of mostly non-essentials, drives the economy.

The end of the book is troubling – but not like you might think. The book is written as a history cast in stone, generally related without bias. But the events of the last 29 years are treated as basically, "Well, that's it. Gold is now a commodity. Get over it." For example, no mention is made that American's could after 1975 again purchase gold. The concept of mine forward sales is mentioned, but no estimate of the magnitude is given. No observation of sustained individual's gold purchases in the face of central bank selling is noted. Its not a good ending. Especially, in light of the mentions earlier of the book of long periods of unsettled times, where things drift until something snaps.

That is the final takeaway item – the inability of those in charge to influence in an intended way the grand course of events. The law of unintended consequences is hard at work in the history related in this book.

What follows is more of my reaction to the book, and I'm not unbiased. I read this book because I am always eager to discover compelling arguments and reasons why I'm wrong in my thinking and conclusions.

To me gold is stored labor; a hedge against future problems. Our current world seems to be converging to a one world government, ruled either by nations or corporations, take your pick. Gold, as a store of value, is nobody elses liability. That is unlike any fiat money scheme. It strikes me after reading this book that nations, corporations and their rulers always look out first for themselves. Gold gives the individual an independence from the results of that which can be otherwise hard to find in our increasingly interdependant world. Gold and freedom are intertwined. Gold in the hands of the masses is a good thing, except to the ruling class.

I remember when the USSR in its dying days told its people that 100 rouble notes would no longer be legal tender. No way of converting them was offered. The savings of most Russians, outside of the official banks, was often in the form of these notes. All gone. In our digital age, it is easy for those in charge to punish a non PC person by the confiscation or taxing of their digitially represented assets. Gold is a way around this. This means that it is very non PC.
I personally, am not worried about the sustained price of gold going much lower. It is already near the cost of production. Twisting the criteria of the usefulness of a fiat currency, gold is still useful as a store of value, because it should only lose value at a slow rate! That of course is the worse case.

In light of the current view of the world presented by FOA and others on this forum, the last chapter of this book reads like a propaganda piece approved by the current dollar world leaders. Approval of the US establishing a central bank is assumed, which brought the US up the the level of Europe. The oddity of the recent gold price action in dollars is noted, but manipulation is not mentioned.

I conclude that gold is still a good place to park excess earnings. People on other forums bewail the decline of the gold price, and offer all sorts of technical analysis as to when to buy. I must confess, my criteria of when to buy is more humble. After the bills are paid, and charity is given, I take whats left and buy coins.
As some people say about buying stocks, its more important what you buy, then what price you pay. I'm not a short term trader, and have been buying gold since before my adult life started. I've really appreciated this forum and FOA's and Another's thoughts. They have confirmed my perceptions, and reinforced my convictions.

Having said all that, I'm still most pleased when my 3 year old takes a running leap and jumps into my lap.
Gold is a tool, and I don't forget to have a life filled with not just gold, but people.


Canuck (10/29/2000; 5:50:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 40208)
From link ( msg. 40073)
"About the only bad scenario economically that might help gold would be one that is truly cataclysmic--a Financial Armageddon. If the dollar bubble were to burst spectacularly, other currencies and markets would surely follow--though in the end maybe not in direct proportion. What would have to occur here is a sea change in the public's very perception of money and trust; an historic shaking of faith in the credit and paper money regimen that had led to a complete annihilation of the world's economy. As newsletter writer Jim Grant correctly pointed out in an op-ed piece in the July 10 issue of the Financial Times, "The flip side of investors’ persistent lack of interest in gold is an unquestioning faith in (fiat) money." Only when this faith in today's banking and credit regimen is shaken in an almost unprecedented way will gold have a chance to stage a comeback as a monetary asset--though at this moment the odds against that are long."
-----------------------------------------------------------
Is this view (fundamentally) correct?




LeSin (10/29/2000; 5:10:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 40207)
A Must Read - Thanks to "justamereBear & Zenidea
http://www.financialsense.com/series2/rogue.htm
A brief sample from the text:

"Some day, this new form of leverage which has permeated the tony-world of Wall Street will be regretted. With an almost religious faith, bank and brokerage trading rooms have adopted the mathematical certainties of the academics' models. As if the world and the mindset of investors can be contained by the certitude of the professors' "black box." Most investment bank trading floors are staffed by PhDs who have studied and believe in the "Holy Grail" of the Black-Scholes model. The conceit and hubris of Wall Street is unfathomable. It is the ultimate deception that their mathematical models could eliminate wars, pestilence, stupidity, and being struck by lightning in the real world."

 "There will come a day unlike any other day,
an event unlike any other event and a crisis unlike any other crisis.
It will emerge out of nowhere at a time no one expects.
It will be an event that no one anticipates ¾ a crisis that experts didn't foresee.
It will be an exogenous event ¾ a rogue wave."

tg (10/29/2000; 4:48:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 40206)
justamereBear, zenidea
I am glad to see that you both have taken interest in the Bankruptcy Netting Bill. I thought i was the only one on this forum that thought it was of major importance.

I posted about the bill when it was first passed on a voice vote and asked TG and Traveller what ramifications it may have. None took any interest.
Perhaps neither foresaw such a move





Zenidea (10/29/2000; 4:04:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 40205)
Sir Justamerebear a tad more from your link
http://federal.gallerywatch.com/news/articleviewer/displaypressrelease.asp?PRID=8663
I guess the Chase is on to get someone off the hook quick. Mor gan that which might be comprehended really. Soooooo, The Mercantile Exchange found the bill's passage appalling.
Someones had their snout in the trough to long I suspect and someone knows somethings amiss.
Bank-bubble-rupture imminent? Zzzzzz time for me and thanks for the invite Sir.



Knallgold (10/29/2000; 3:22:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 40204)
Howes new article on the BIS
A thought why the BIS might still participate in Gold manipulation.

The current Gold trading system is the "conspirative price setting" one.There is a new one coming,the free physical trading.We are in transition phase now according to TrailGuide.The WA started the move with a wild spike.Central bankers (and of course their CB BIS)of europe and the USA,hating disorderly market on that time'started to cooperate and tried to "smooth the move" and switched back to the old system for a certain time (controlled burning).COMEX/LBMA volumes decreased around 30-40% starting last Oktober,BB's fixed some Gold properties (?),CHASE/JPM merge,insiders selling out of (Gold)stock market,buying more physical, etc. (certainly more but unknown)

A little less painful COMEX default will be the next mark.And then FreeGold,I hope,( FOA knows).

BTW,the value of a BIS share was figured out last year by a analyst here,his number was 30'000 sFr. (currently traded at 8000 sFr.,BIS bids 16'000 sFr.)

justamereBear (10/29/2000; 3:01:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 40203)
All and Zenidea 40202
http://federal.gallerywatch.com/legislation/BillInfo/BillInfo.asp?ID=29066

The above link takes you to where you can get the text of bill HR4541

Sir Zenidea 40202

Combine this, with HR4541, and Greenspans hurry, and the governments hurry, and the major banks hurry, and it does not look favorable to us chickens.

The bill is confusing, but as I see it, it lets the banks off the hook almost completely unless they are totally naked. Guess who gets stiffed?

Another thing that nobody seems to have noted; While the central banks are PLEDGING/LEASING all this gold, physically it still sits in the same vaults that it always sat in. What happens when the governments decide to reneg on their lease pledges? They still control the vaults. BUY PHYSICAL

I have long thought that physical was a good thing, but also tried to top up my coverage with options. Sort of a fire insurance. I also knew it was dangerous in the way that Financial Sense website says it. I just didn't know how bad. Insurance is only as good as the insurance company, and if your fire occurs 1 day after the insurance company goes under, do you have any insurance?

What country are you in? Drop me a note at currie@mqcinc.com on another matter.



Zenidea (10/29/2000; 2:18:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 40202)
Sir Justamerebear, AG's cat out the bag
Thanking your goodness :), I have been waiting for someone to pick up on its paramount SIGNIFICANCE and perhaps elaborate.
All I can say is Sheech !, wheres my de-fibrilattor ?


tedw (10/29/2000; 1:36:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 40201)
Euro and the new world order
http://www.usagold.com

Interesting article on worldnetdaily.com "US TO PULL OUT OF NATO IF EU FORCE GOES AHEAD"

The French and Germams are proposing a new European Military Alliance.


More and more Europe is acting like one country. The Washington agreement was just one sign of it.

THE EURO IS HERE TO STAY.

justamereBear (10/29/2000; 1:29:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 40200)
To all
www.financialsense.com/series2/rogue.htm

I know Zenidea posted this link, but it is so important, I felt it worthwhile to repost it. It starts off slow, but as I read, the hair on the back of my neck slowly rose.




The Invisible Hand (10/29/2000; 1:14:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 40199)
Dim Wim

My English is very poor, so I opened the dictionary – the Collins College Dictionary 1995.

Dim
1. badly lit
2. not clearly seen, faint: a dim figure in the doorway
3. not seeing clearly; eyes dim with tears
4. informal: mentally dull
5. not clear in the mind, obscure: a dim awareness
6. lacking in brightness or luster: a dim colour
7. to take a dim view of: to disapprove of

Only the fourth definition seems negative. All other definitions imply that the goal or purpose is not yet outlined (to the outside world?}, but there doesn't seem to be anything negative in those definitions. Or is my English really that poor?


YELLER! (10/29/2000; 0:09:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 40198)
How will it all play out?
The weekend is here… away from all the action. It's been quite a week, eh? The Euro/US$ war was top-of-mind on this forum. I picked up two statements in threads I read the past few days …don't remember which threads. The first idea was about Van Duisenberg as Dim Wim, the other about some young 'eccentric thinkers' inside one of those fancy universities' economics departments. …so, what better than a good read like an Ivan Illich paper from 1974, about imposition of paralyzing monopoly. Let me tell you: there's nothing more thought-provoking than literature of which each page takes me half an hour to read …and grasp some of it! Give him a read. It's poetry.

…from Illich's Energy and Equity:
"Radical monopoly is first established by a rearrangement of society for the benefit of those who have access to the larger quanta, then it is enforced by compelling all to consume the minimum quantum in which the output is currently produced." And " The magnitude of voluntary limits is a matter of politics; the encroachment of radical monopoly can be pinpointed by social analysis."

I asked FISH (who I introduced before): So, how will it all play out?

He said: if money talks, count ALL the money in each bank, identify it's nationality and line'm up. The answer will show. And remember, count the IOUs. It's THAT simple!

I'm not finished counting yet, but so far it looks like Germany and France don't want England to join, yet.

Hey, just give Wim some more time. He's fighting on all kinds of fronts. He DOES have a great idea... an idea which in many other regions of the world would have been fought with blood and bullits.

And... be careful where you read it… the term 'Dim Wim' is only comical in the English language.




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