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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 9/29/1999 All times are U.S. Mountain Time View Yesterday's Discussion. Bonedaddy (9/29/99; 23:46:38MDT - Msg ID:14945) Please, just one more dip! 'Vader Guy, I'm just a humble workin' stiff, but I thought your post #14932 was right on target. Most of the good knowledge has gone to sleep by the time I log on, so Bonedaddy can opine freely, with out fear of reprisal. (Although, I do enjoy a good sorting out by one of my betters now and then.) When gold shot up on Monday, my first emotion was not elation, but aggravation. (Drat, I was preparing to buy again!) Gold is going to find the correct relationship with the dollar some day to be sure, but I'd really rather accumulate for a few more months at these prices. I'm not a "paper kind of guy", so the only thing that really interests me is aquiring a little more gold at yard sale prices. At any rate, this weeks price action was a WAKE UP CALL TO ME. Volitility means there is pressure. Like a compressed spring, it will soon slip from their grasp and somebody will get hurt. The big fund managers really aren't much different than children with their toys. (Leave that gold shortin' alone boy, you gonna put somebodys eye out!) Lafisrap (9/29/99; 23:39:17MDT - Msg ID:14944) Repost from SI I sure do need gold to go to $30,000 dollars per ounce. I will buy a big house and be rich.OK, now for something totally different! I found this at SI.That bad boy, gold pessimist, Hutch, posted a link to this text.************************To: Mike Schiavo who wrote (68366)From: Henry VolquardsenWednesday, Sep 29 1999 7:44PM ETReply # of 68404MikeOk, I'll bite. Expand on you views of gold and how it is or is not a store of value. Its not an issue of whether gold is a store of value, it is but then so are many commodities. The question in my mind is whether gold is the best store of value. I think that in the past twenty years it has been replaced by the major currencies and specificly the US dollar (I can hear the howls of laughter coming from the gold bulls now <g>). And there are specific developments over that period that have caused this shift.The global capital markets are significantly different today than they were 20 or more years ago. Prior to the early 70s currency values were essentially fixed and were tightly managed by the major governments. These tightly managed currency relationships were supported by extensive capital controls. We have gotten used to the idea that we can move money freely between the US, Europe, Japan etc. Few people remember that as little as twenty years ago there were exchange controls in Britain, France, Italy and many other major economies. This protected currencies from market discipline and allowed governments to pursue debasing policies. There are numerous examples; Nixon's wage price controls that led to the oil crisis, semi-permanent budget deficits, negative real rates of return etc. In this enviroment inflation was eroding currency values and interest rates net of taxation did not provide sufficient income to offset debasement. Gold was the superior store of value.Starting in the 70s the character of the capital markets change. In the early 70s the fixed currency arrangements collapse. Over the coming years a dollar crisis occurs as the dollar collapses. In response the US launches the Oct 6, 1979 Volcker support package. In retrospect this was a very important development for the future of the currency system and gold's position in that system. Up until that stage the reflex for most goverments was to respond to free market pressure with statist controls. In this case the US responded instead by dealing directly with the markets concerns regarding inflation. The market forced the gov't to defend the value of the currency. In coming years the market forced similar attention to deficit financing, real rates of return etc. Europe and Japan to greater or lesser degrees were forced to respond to their own currency crisises in a similar fashion or lose their capital to markets that did enforce currency discipline. (FWIW it is my opinion that the creation of the Euro is a transparent attempt to build a wall around Europe to allow them to pursue the statist policies they prefer.) So as a result of the above we now have a global currency system that enforces discipline on free floating currencies. Now a standard response to this is to say that any inflation at all debases a currency and gold does not suffer inflation. However if you factor in interest rates that provide a real rate of return the total return will offset the debasement.So it is my view that currently the dollar provides superior store of value because the market enforces a continuation of low inflation policies and a continuation of interest rates that provide a real rate of return. Any move on a global basis to reimpose capital controls or to pursue explicitly inflationary policies would swing the balance back to gold.So there it is Mike, you asked for it <g>.Henry*************************** Hill Billy Mitchell (9/29/99; 23:36:10MDT - Msg ID:14943) Spot Gold @ $301.5Back to sleep ET (9/29/99; 23:35:31MDT - Msg ID:14942) Orca Hey Orca - you seem to have hit the nail on the head; they do have to attempt to 'manage' this scramble, eh? Unfortunately for me, I have been on the road for a few days and missed all the fun here. After reading most of the stuff I do have a couple of observations. It would seem that what Another has been predicting would happen, has happened - everyone is attempting to get liquid or 'real' at once. Since we know this is impossible to do for the vast majority, it will be interesting to watch how the issuers of dollars attempt to keep that side liquid and their allies in the game. It seems that is what occured today. For most to stay 'alive' the market for real money cannot move very quickly to the upside in dollars or as Another and FOA have speculated, the market would cease to trade altogether. It was interesting to see the market get to $330 Tuesday and immediately back off as it would appear to be the 'magic' number for many on the wrong side. Didn't we hear of this $330 level being key from someone here? <g> It appears gold will try to trade its way up but in this environment it will be difficult for the Fed to keep much order, but you know they will try.Somebody mentioned they were surprised that this is occuring before the y2k event. Frankly, I would have been surprised if it had not. Y2k, despite the public stance by governments and business, is no joke to those that have access to hard data on compliance around the world. There is no way it can produce anything but deflation and in that environment, doesn't it make sense that those with an inside view would be making attempts to get into real assets 'before' the rollover? It makes sense to me! I've always suspected the threat of y2k, whether real or imagined, would eventually trigger this scramble for real money. Despite the usual spin from the media, etc., I've always felt the people that have retained much real wealth over the centuries would be smart enough to see a well-advertised deflationary event coming at them and shield themselves from wealth destruction. I never expected them to tell me to do the same! The reason they have so much of the money is due to the fact they know what money is, yes?This is just getting started. I'm clueless as to how long this will actually trade but I suspect soon a 'real' panic will take hold and we'll only be guessing at dollar valuations of real money. Just my 2 cents.- got liquidity?ET Hill Billy Mitchell (9/29/99; 23:26:08MDT - Msg ID:14941) Gumit deliveries Has anyone else noticed that the gumit is either unable to make deliveries or else they dont want to. Especially silver eagles. Pop in premium will tell whether the brokers are telling the truth about timely deliveries. Hill Billy Mitchell (9/29/99; 23:21:14MDT - Msg ID:14940) Brokerage desk The gold brokers are so busy that they are rude. Can't says I blame them. Can't make a sale to someone else while engaged in small talk with you. ORO (9/29/99; 23:20:20MDT - Msg ID:14939) Rhody repost Date: Wed Sep 29 1999 11:57rhody (LEASE RATES: the present minor retracement of pog and pos can) ID#408236:be ignored as just that, a retracement. Meanwhile lease rates for both metals are exploding. One month gold leases are up 4.3% to 8.9%, about double the increase in one year rates. Can you believe it? There is now a short attack on gold financed at 8.9% lease rates! Every forward rate in every term for gold, silver and platinum are negative, in the red! The pm carries are dead, indeed those who participated are being crucified as we speak. Dis - reality rules.Desparation of ruined trades pulling at the borrowers from the major banks, and thereby in the banks. Hill Billy Mitchell (9/29/99; 23:12:51MDT - Msg ID:14938) SPOT GOLD @ $303 Hill Billy Mitchell (9/29/99; 22:59:08MDT - Msg ID:14937) (No Subject) The silence is deafening! elevator guy (9/29/99; 22:55:33MDT - Msg ID:14936) Don't listen to the talking heads! Its no surprise to hear of some saying gold is dead, or that they feel sorry for the rapist shorts, or some other assinine statement.Remember they work for the dis-information media, and they are doing a fine job of jabbering.If you were short, you'd be proud of the crap that the media machine spews out.Don't worry about it, just keep preaching the gospel of the comming golden kingdom, hang on to your positions, don't let them scare you into selling on the retracement.They'd like nothing better than for all the longs to get queasy, and bail early. Buy on the dips, if you've got anything left to fire at them. Still a lot of covering going on, and Midas has word that the December contract is going to get squeezed. (Thats good for gold, yes?) Chris Powell (9/29/99; 22:20:55MDT - Msg ID:14935) Bullish intelligence and praise for GATA http://www.egroups.com/group/gata/214.html? The rally will continue. gidsek (9/29/99; 22:08:07MDT - Msg ID:14934) Gold Chart http://www.total.net/~bkitner/gold.graph.html This chart seems to stay up-to-date fairly well.gidsek Black Blade (9/29/99; 21:50:34MDT - Msg ID:14933) CNBC reporters need Au education CNBC was very active on Au repoting today. Guests included Harry Bingham (Pimco), Hathaway (Toqueville), and another individual who were pro-gold. Even Ron Insana didn't know how to put down Au today. One of their female reporters (I don't recall her name, she's the black woman), said that the rise in gold was strange since "....gold has no intrinsic value like treasuries and bonds" Excuse me! But I couldn't believe what I had just heard! I think that she sort of...kind of...it's like....uh...maybe the other way around! This new market seems to be full of a lot of comedy, unfortunately it's unintentional and these people think that they can be taken seriously. Meanwhile, what is with the Kitco charts tonight? Earlier one had Au at $307, and the alternate site had Au at $288.25 off 13.75. May the "Cabal" has stormed the offices at the mirror site (just kidding - smile). Glad that I readjusted my portfolio more to the PM side on wed. thru fri. last week. This should be an interesting ride here on out. elevator guy (9/29/99; 21:49:39MDT - Msg ID:14932) @koan, msg 14926 Ok, I know I'm just a lurker, talking out of my hat from the peanut gallery, but I'm going to take a stab at your question. Paper and physical may part company, when the credit bubble collapses. The USA has been printing paper money with reckless abandon at every crisis or insolvency. They somehow managed to get oil priced in dollars, which obligated almost everyone worldwide to trade their currency for dollars, to buy oil. (Do I have it right so far?)So the USA has benefited undeservedly from this very priveledged position, and the world has been trading in dollars since before I was born. (1960)Now the European nations have put their collective fingers together, to form a fist we now call the Euro. It represents the economic strength of many nations, whereas the dollar represents one nation. With the advent of the Euro, the dollar may soon no longer be the dictated currency of "choice",(as if!) used a store of value and means of trade.Now the US has many hedge funds, investment banks, etc, who are very short gold. Much more short than there is physical gold to cover. The shorts have held the price as low as possible, for as long as possible, for two reasons that I know of:1) The shorts were making a killing off the "gold carry trade", borrowing gold at low interest rates, and investing the money in higher yielding securities.2) Keeping gold low sets the tone in the financial arena, because it makes it look like their is no inflation, and it makes the dollar look sound. And so it seems that the shorts had, or have, a lot of help from our government, because they are both working at common goals. (And what is the difference between big government, and big business? At the top levels, the boundary is hard to see, as the goals of the privledged few seem to match the intentions of our elected officials. Anyone hear of the Potomac fever? It seems to affect all those who go to serve the people in Washington, and there does not seem to be any antidote for it) Now that the Europeans have a currency that can stand up to the dollar, they have grown some balls, and no longer want to participate in this unholy practice of selling their gold, to help the shorts in the gold carry trade, and keep the dollar king.(As an aside, can you beleive the shamefaced mid-day crime of the BOE, selling the people's gold at a 20 year low? What power the shorts wield! Able to dump the gold of another nation, by remote control, to save their hide. But now it appears this is changing. Go GATA!) Now the dollar will be cut a-drift, and must find an equilibrium in the world's markets. There are a tremendous amount of dollars circulating worldwide, (I've heard it is more than one million dollars!)(hee-hee) and the $ may get dumped in favor of Euros or gold, which will force a major devaluation of the dollar. Supply and demand forces will rule the day. There is too much paper masquerading as gold, and not enough gold to cover all the contracts written. The ratio is 100:1, I'm told. This exposes the systemic risk inherent in the gold paper markets today. For example, if everyone runs to the bank (fractional reserve) and withdraws, the bank must close. In the same way, the gold market may see major defaults, and it may get closed. No trading, maybe for years. But people in the US, and around the world will still buy gold, but off the official markets. So now we have a "street price". No paper market trading, and an astronomical street price, is what I think FOA/Another are saying may happen. The US can't just print more paper to cover the mess. The "piper" will get paid now, and he will get paid in gold.(Or Euros?) So what do we do now? Obviously, gold is an excellant hedge against dollar burning. But maybe we can go long the Euro, long oil, short the dollar. Even if I get paid in dollars, it is still better than doing nothing. Not as good as physical gold, but better than doing nothing. And with the prceeds gained from riding the winds of change, we may be able to buy some physical gold. I don't think the dollar is going to utterly collapse, because this nation has a lot of life, resources, and a lot of heart, and my guess is that the dollar will just get trounced. Of course the best plan is to store your value in gold, and sleep at night. I just hope I don't get chewed out by the sequoias of wisdom in here, but maybe just a little gumming will be alright. gidsek (9/29/99; 21:28:30MDT - Msg ID:14931) PH in LA Thanks for responding re Euro etc. I was wondering about Euro accounts on THIS side of the pond, like at a persons' corner bank. No matter though, that thought of mine was not idea that seems to go anywhere.Thanks againgidsek TownCrier (9/29/99; 21:15:56MDT - Msg ID:14930) Sorry Sir apdchief... apdchief (9/29/99; 20:41:27MDT - Msg ID:14927)"I'm getting very tired.........but I can't go to bed without my nightly 'Golden View'!"Sorting out the events of the day is extra tough when not on The Tower's rooftop as events unfold. Sleep well...gold is nearly $310 right now for spot purchases. The price is certainly there, but is there gold behind it? Ahhhhh...THAT is the million dollar (per ounce) question. SteveH (9/29/99; 21:15:18MDT - Msg ID:14929) Kaplan www.goldminingoutlook.com kaplan--"On the positive side for gold, besides its ability to hold above $300, the XAU held above 80, while short-term lease rates soared above 9%. This should probably postpone the inevitable drop for the time being. The New York Mercantile Exchange has doubled the margin requirements for all COMEX gold traders. The new margins are $1,600 for clearing members, $1,760 for members, and $2,160 for customers. Silver margin requirements were raised 25% and platinum margins were raised about 22%. Historically, increases in margin requirements often coincide with market tops, as it makes it more difficult for speculators to pile as heavily on the long side.""...Wednesday's COMEX gold estimated volume was a very heavy 90,000 lots. Total COMEX gold open interest on Tuesday surged 11,531 to 225,467 contracts, as speculators went even more heavily net long...." TownCrier (9/29/99; 21:09:34MDT - Msg ID:14928) After the Close: the GOLDEN VIEW from The Tower Sorry folks, The Tower was unmanned today because we saw something on the horizon that we couldn't make out with our binoculars. It appeared to be the figure of a man bent over in a most bizarre angle, though we couldn't recognize the face because his head was hidden from view. That's right...upon further investigation, today's Head-in-the-Sand Award goes to Andy Smith, analyst at Mitsui Global Precious Metals, for his comment regarding gold, "It's just a small little market bought by locals which used to be a reserve asset. Now it's a (commodity like) copper." Yep. That's why we also have an onerous copper-for-Treasury Bonds carry trade scalping greeding hedge funds and lenders left and right. It's not too late to pull your head out, Andy, unless you have it there for safe keeping against being scalped...or because you already have been.In our quick stock market fly-by, the DOW and Nasdaq both struggled throughout the day to pick a direction, finally choosing the path of least resistance...down, losing 62.05 and 25.98 points, respectively. Advancers and decliners finished in nearly a dead heat, but those reaching new 52-week lows outnummbered new highs on the NYSE by 220 to 36, while on the Nasdaq it was 164 new lows to 66 new highs. The 30-Yr Bond (6.117%) lost 17/32 in price, extending losses for a third straight day. There was some speculation that the hedge fund selling of Treasuries today was a carryover of yesterday's sales that were driven by efforts to unwind their gold/USBond carry trades. There was also talk that some of the funds' losses were large enough to spell trouble. Despite all that, Scott Winningham, an economist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates told Bridge News that the Tresury market was not looking good anyway. "Gold aside, I think there's reason to worry we might have a bit more commodity inflation, and therefore higher inflation in goods. You can see it in the producer price index for raw materials, which has accelerated sharply." Concluding, "And we think partly because of this, and because the strength in the economy is continuing, the Fed is going to be increasing rates a number of times over the next year or so." In currencies, Bridge reports a trader saying "The rise in euro/dollar today is partly to do with the sharp gains in euro/yen and partly to do with dollar weakening versus the euro and the Swissie." While the dollar gained .75 yen from the previous close to end at 106.93 yen/dollar, the euro gained 2.01 yen (1.14 cents) on the day to end at 113.84 yen/euro ($1.0644 per euro).+And in similar fashion with the bond market, the money market was also plagued all day by talk that numerous players who had been caught short gold, were liquidating profitable short euro/yen and short euro/sterling positions to cover their losses as December gold reached a 1 1/2-year high of $329.00 on Tuesday. Another dealer said "There have been some losses that have forced the punting fraternity out of positions but euro/dollar and euro/yen were comfortably bid in all three time zones today and that's what sent it higher."+Another factor that contributed to euro/dollar strength was the German finance ministry's monthly report indicating the country's economic outlook was "clearly improving" and that the expected acceleration in growth had just begun. Official remarks by ANYbody of high financial rank remain conspicuously absent following these recent gains in gold. Clearly, following the Sunday announcement by the European central banks, this rise was expected and not at all disturbing to any of them, otherwise the jawboning would commence. Gold truly has been set free to float against the world's currencies. After sitting on gold to keep it down for 30 years, the IMF shifted its weight around at this same time, and can be expected to raise the remaining "cheek" by degrees in the time ahead.NY spot was last quoted at $302.00, down $5.90 from $307.90. This is quite interesting because the COMEX December contract ended down $8, to close also at $302. How long before spot prices exceed the paper prices?Backwardation-R-Us. Take notice of the astounding levels of gold lease rates later in the report. Would you deposit some of your own gold to be lent into a market that is so desparate for gold as to pay nearly an ounce interest for one-month's use of 100oz? What makes anyone think this is going to sort itself out in any other fashion than what you get with a run on the bank? Gold metal can only occupy one hand at a time, and any notion that gold lent into this particular market would be returned when requested is a complete fiction. If gold were available for easy return, the lease rates wouldn't be so desparately high. In overnight trading, the London markets saw gold revisit the $320 levels that we're briefly seen in yesterday afternoon NY trading (before settling back for that day's impressive $26 gain...and setting up an understandable pullback today by the technically driven paper traders.)A quick look at supply and demand: On the supply side, industry analysts say the surge in bullion prices thus far is "not nearly enough to spur a restart of projects or mines that were suspended by US and Canadian firms during the recent market downturn." On the demand side, a spokesman for the U.S. Mint said although it is too soon to quantify the changing demand for gold during the $53 increase since Sept. 21, demand for gold Eagles has steadily increased since the beginning of the year. The Mint has been making "as many of the coins as possible." Both of those tidbits were courtesy of separate newsbriefs by Bridge.FWN reports the New York Mercantile Exchange said that it would raise the margins on gold, silver and platinum futures contracts at the close of business today. But then we later received this news from Bridge..."The New York Mercantile Exchange has revised the changes it made earlier today to margins on gold and silver futures contracts, while the changes for the platinum contract margins remain the same." Where those changes currently stand we have yet to ascertain. And since Bridge had the head's up call on the margin standards, we'll let them run with the ball for a bit longer and describe what happened today while we were out of the Tower, examining that bent figure.NY Precious Metals Review: Dec gold down $8 on profit-taking [i.e. paper-taking]By Melanie Lovatt, Bridge NewsNew York--Sep 29--COMEX Dec gold futures settled down $8 at $302 perounce on profit-taking after Tuesday's hefty one-day 9.2% jump. Gold was also pushed lower by news Russia may lend around 7 million ounces to themarket. However, relative to the lending market this is a small quantityand lending may not even be profitable right now with Russia's 5% exporttax, said traders.A representative of the Central Bank of Russia told Bridge News thatit is possible the CBR may place 7.3 million ounces of its gold withwestern banks, thereby enabling it to be lent to the market. He said thatdue to the current 5% export tax on precious metals, it was not profitablefor the CBR to sell gold outright, but that added lending it out waspossible, depending on the interest rates offered by the banks concerned.[...Today's closing gold lease rates (annualized)1-month 8.9000% +4.3200 2-month 7.4688% +2.97883-month 7.5780% +3.07006-month 6.4580% +1.622012-mnth 7.0300% +2.2740....]While the climb in gold lease rates makes it more attractive to lendgold, they are probably not yet sufficiently high to cancel out Russia's5% export tax on precious metals, said traders. Also, Leonard Kaplan,chief bullion dealer at LFG Bullion Services, said that the RussianCentral Bank is not a very large holder of gold and even if they were tolend, it "wouldn't make a dent in this market."[We've got to intervene here to ask you to reconsider Andy Smith's asinine remarks (presented at the opening..."It's just a small little market bought by locals which used to be a reserve asset. Now it's a (commodity like) copper.") in context with what you have just read. The Tower finds ever more evidence supporting the position that gold is a world-class financial asset distinctly UNLIKE such things as copper. Mr. Smith's commentary, in light of the facts, sounds ever more like a Martin Armstrong redo. Maybe the mayonnaise on his noon sandwich turned, and now he's grumpy in general and not thinking clearly?] Gold Fields Minerals Services current estimate for the total worldlending market is 5,000 tonnes, which includes both the private andofficial sectors.Part of the fuel for gold's recent rally has been the tightness inlending and subsequent jump in lease rates. Typically 1-month gold leaserates are under 1%, but they have been in a steady climb over the last fewmonths and jumped to about 4.5% Tuesday from Monday's already high 3.25%.This morning they had climbed even higher, with some quoting 9.7% whileothers were suggesting they were nearer the 11% level. This afternoon thestayed at the 9% level. Kaplan, who has been in the gold market for 25 years,said that he had "never seen lease rates so high."Meanwhile, traders said that they were not surprised that gold hadpulled back on some profit-taking after its recent huge gains.Initially the fall back was mostly driven by locals, noted DavidMeger, senior metals analyst at Alaron Trading. "They were trying to shakepeople who were above $300 out of the market," he said. Market observerssaid that there had also been some trade selling at the top of the market."It needs to rest. It came in much quieter," said Bill O'Neill,analyst at Merrill Lynch. He noted that gains were exaggerated Tuesday bythe options-related activity. "We now have to re-adjust to get back tomore regular trading pattern," he said.However, many players are not ruling out another attempt at a climb,especially given that gold managed to settle above the $300 support area.Kaplan said that gold's relatively orderly close was the "calm beforethe storm." He said that dealers had widened their spreads to $2 per ounceon spot gold, which cut volume by making it impossible for players totrade effectively.Kaplan predicts that gold will try to rally again, suggesting that it"held nicely" at the $297/298 area. He pointed out that the fact leaserates have remained high suggests further mileage on the upside.***(c) Copyright 1999 FWN Reprinted at USAGOLD with permission. For details please go to:http://www.futuresource.com/internet.shtmlNo further reproduction without written permission from FWN---Yesterday's official gold futures total volume 182,404 resulting in a rise in total open interest to 225,467 contracts, gaining 11,531 new postions. For the second straight day there was no change in the level of gold inventory held in COMEX depositories, holding at 942,231 ounces. As we move from the last trading day for the puny Sept contract toward the first notice day (for delivery) on the October futures (2,139 contracts of 100oz each as of yesterday), we'll keep you posted how many call for the goods.Our Fifth Horseman (Rising Oil Prices) spurred his steed today through psychological resistance at $25.00 following weekly inventory data released by the US Department of Energy data this morning showing a drop of 4.3 million barrels in crude stockpiles last week, which exceeded yesterday's API data of a 3.684-million-barrel decline. After reaching a 33-month high at $25.12, November crude settled up 36c at $24.69. U.S. President Bill Clinton pledged on Wednesday the United States would forgive all debts owed to it by impoverished countries, saying he would direct his administration to make it possible to forgive 100% of debt owed by impoverished countries to the U.S. Clinton was quoted by Reuters as offering the explanation "Unsustainable debt is helping keep too many poor countries and poor people in poverty. "I do not think we can say in good conscience that we support the idea that (poor countries) should choose between making interest payments and investing in their children's education." True enough, and when you consider that the element that makes any fiat currency valuable is the efforts people will expend to earn them in order to pay back their debt, you've just kicked one of the spindley support legs out from under the dollar. The Tower surmises that if the dollar were about to lose value anyway, you might as well try to look heroic and generous in the process, and maybe earn a few future favors to boot. Offered as one small additional piece of evidence that the future strength of the dollar is in grave shape. And where the dollar won't meet your needs preserving your wealth from here to there, there is gold...IF you have it.And that's the view from here...after the close. apdchief (9/29/99; 20:41:27MDT - Msg ID:14927) I'm getting very tired.... .....but I can't go to bed without my nightly 'Golden View'! koan (9/29/99; 20:22:21MDT - Msg ID:14926) physical gold and paper gold? Maybe someone can explain to me what this idea is regarding "a difference between the two". To my knowledge paper gold will buy the same bag of groceries physical gold will. Silver: It has to get through $6.00. Gold got through 300 and Platinum $400 and silver should be next. But there needed to be a correction for all of the PM's and this one has, so far, been milder than I would have expected. ORO (9/29/99; 20:18:31MDT - Msg ID:14925) Cobra(too) Obviously the guy is delusional. I never said he was right, I figured this was writing in an ironic style.Imagine Andy's incredulity when he figures out that he was duped. Yet he continues repeating the mantra of "de-mo-ne-tize" despite the math. Could they have lied? Like any trader does when voicing an opinion?Or Armstrong thinking that yo, there is plenty of gold in Dubai. Lots, I saw it.Traders figure that everyone is holding on to their gold within a routine regimen of daily examination of the trading justification of the holding. But, then, Rubin was a bond trader wasn't he? He was sec of treas. He did all that was needed to manipulate the market in favor of treas bonds (his "book"), take the profits and run (resign). There is no such thing as fundumentals to a bond trader, only the perception of fundumentals. koan (9/29/99; 20:15:32MDT - Msg ID:14924) Journeyman Good post and good advice. I also have spent most of my life, not as a gambler, but a poker player. As you know, the good poker players don't gamble, they play the odds; and they seldom lose. But I do think we were just dealt pocket aces. andrew the kiwi (9/29/99; 20:15:00MDT - Msg ID:14923) (No Subject) bill appreciate your comments, from one 36 to one 30. PH in LA (9/29/99; 20:13:09MDT - Msg ID:14922) Hong Kong Action & Question of the Day Prepare for liftoff...???MK:Maybe she owns shares in the LBMA. (smile) andrew the kiwi (9/29/99; 20:11:30MDT - Msg ID:14921) Spot the dog b$309 a$305, bid higher than offer? Another day in the office with little work likely to be done............. Bill (9/29/99; 20:10:57MDT - Msg ID:14920) andrew the kiwi Selling now "may" be the best thing. Retracement should bring it back to around 290 or so. Selling now will give you some profit and you "may" have a chance to get back in. Then again, you may not. If I believed POG probably wasn't going higher than 230 or 240, I would have sold. I may be wrong, however, I feel POG has a long way to go and very soon. Everything indicates this. To me the risk is very much worth it. $70 or $80,000 won't change my lifestyle much though, $150,000 will. Most of the time, we commodity traders earn small gains at a time out of survival necesity. Very seldom do we have the opportunity.... in any market to be a part of the price explosion I believe we will witness in the gold market today..... even before November. This is how FORTUNES are made. I do not want to miss out on it and am willing to "gamble" for it. You have to make "your" decision based upon your goals and willingness to "gamble". I do not share the opinon of some that the gold paper and physical will part ways. To me gold is a commodity like any other though certainly more manipulated. ^past tense-- for the most part^There are many in this forum that are older, wiser and more experienced than I. Today is my 30th birthday. They may have very different advice than I and they may be right. I have a plan that has done well for me and I am sticking to it. Make some decisions about what your goals are and stick to it. Good Luck.Bill Goldfly (9/29/99; 20:03:41MDT - Msg ID:14919) Lookee lookee lookee.... Spot $307.90 elevator guy (9/29/99; 19:48:25MDT - Msg ID:14918) @ TownCrier, RE: Msg #14910 That was rich! I took it that you were making a play on words, by substituting the word "dollar" for "fire", on the first read! Sure fits, don't it?I guess we are all thinking about the winds of change. Goldfly (9/29/99; 19:42:11MDT - Msg ID:14917) SPO-ot!! SPI-ike!!! Come here you two! Where have you rascals been?Did you get into the neighbors yard? Did you fill in that trough Mrs. Volatility was digging? Shame on you!Awwww, you guys are so cute when your being naughty- What am I going to do with you?Ok, here's a treat! Jump Spot! Up Spike, up!Check the charts! We just recovered from a $6 spike and looks to be heading UP! What do you think? Time for ANOTHER run at $330?Spot 305.30GF apdchief (9/29/99; 19:38:13MDT - Msg ID:14916) Futures Margins http://www.nymex.com I know it's paper...but...NYMEX has doubled the margin requirements for gold futures contracts, effective immediately. What bearing does this have, if any, on the rising lease rates and/or declining forward rates? Or am I completely off base here? andrew the kiwi (9/29/99; 18:30:05MDT - Msg ID:14915) (No Subject) Bill if volatility diminishes and the shorts again push spot back to $280, my dec280 calls could loose all thier value(premium between 33 and 38 on 29th, settle now at 25!)Maybe take the $s and buy on the dips calls further out.help! Orca (9/29/99; 18:24:21MDT - Msg ID:14914) Why did it stop? IMVHO it stopped because the FED stepped in and backstopped those being asked for the gold; it stopped because the US FED will do what Greenspan said in 1998 June they would do ... stand prepared to loan when necessary.. or words to that effect; it stopped because the alternative was to start dumping equities to get the $$ to buy gold at increasingly high prices, and that dumping would have taken Wall Street down dramatically as 2000 - 4000 tonnes of gold buying needs a lot of money; it stopped because the FED and the Banks had convinced others to get into the game i.e. Russia.Question... will Russia, if its true ever see that gold again, or was there a deal I the back room to pay back some other way !!!It stopped because at this point gold is proving more than ever its is valuable, and that it is a political tool and weapon. Other than those reasons, I can't think of why it stopped!! But this manipulation (so as not to offend some folks who think it doesn't exist .. lets call it "ASSET MANAGEMENT") will be ever so difficult to contain because more and more rascals are getting in the tent, and as you all know, once that stupid camel gets his nose in... he will soon try to move all of him in and take over, and then the whole tent will collapse. Nothing is worse then a camel in a very small tent, esp. one with no manners. turbohawg (9/29/99; 18:19:28MDT - Msg ID:14913) national id card repeal http://www.NoNationalID.com the transportation conference committee was meeting this evening to decide whether to include repeal of the fascist national ID card legislation in a bill tomorrow. CoBra(too) (9/29/99; 18:18:43MDT - Msg ID:14912) @ORO - Msg ID 14907 - Why did it stop? "-Because the players believe that they have support outside of the EU CB's" - Let's roughly calculate the amount of gold reserve in CB's 30 - 35.000 tons total: Who is going to sell, considering IMF at +3.000 t's (? -maybe double accounted), so let's add it up: EU - ECB - 12.500 tUK - BoE - 675 - after 2nd. auction (255,75 -T(ph)onyCH - SNB - 2.900_________________EU Total - 16.175US (alleg) 8.150_________________Total 24.300 tons of gold, which are not to be sold, as these countries stated. Count Japan, Russia and China, wanting to raise their gold reserves and IMF's 3.000 tons (may be double accounting), you've accounted for about 90% of official gold reserves - in case they're still in the vaults. There may be not much physical metal left for the hedgers et al to cover the alledged shorts of up to 15.000 tons - so, who the hell Mr. Andy Smith do you think will plentiful lend or sell from here on? - Probably lease rates have to skyrocket to 10% p/d, not month - at that rate I may be persuaded to lease 10% of my Philharmonics! ORO, the players of "short" ran out of support!Cheers CB2 TownCrier (9/29/99; 18:17:08MDT - Msg ID:14911) Freudian slip! I'm laughing so hard! I said dollar when I clearly meant fire! TownCrier (9/29/99; 18:15:06MDT - Msg ID:14910) Day end tea leaves: IMM currency futures end mixed, euro posts gains http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990929/23.html Referring to the DOW, a currency trader said a break below 10,000 "is just sentiment, but people have to roll their money into the something besides the dollar." And more than likely they'll roll it right out of the frying pan and into the dollar because too many people these days are "conditioned" against the merits of holding real money (gold) in a time of change. They've always got to leverage their opportunity for gains in whatever might be expected to perform the best under the expected conditions throughout the change, or what...face the ridicule of their friends?Having returned from a trip today, it was quite apparent in all fronts (not only markets) that too many people are too conditioned to run with the herd. Those who decide instead to run with the wind will certainly find themselves to be breathing better air in the final analysis.(climbing down from soapbox now...to assemble the GOLDEN VIEW) Tomcat (9/29/99; 17:21:29MDT - Msg ID:14909) Goldfly Hey Goldfly, go to your post #14,880 and click on the link. Note that a second window gets generated which continues to get updated while you can go back to the original window and go surfing or whatever. You can now have an update of gold in the background at all times. Nice ay? ORO (9/29/99; 16:50:48MDT - Msg ID:14908) Druckenmiller He is who we mean when we say Soros. He manages Quantum. ORO (9/29/99; 16:48:17MDT - Msg ID:14907) Why did it stop? http://www.afr.com.au/content/990930/invest/invest1.html It stopped because the players believe that they have support from other CBs outside the EU+. They also try to convince each other that there is going to be no consequence if they don't cover now. They think given some time the gold from their "allies" will come in. So they get more gold from the public by raising interest rates to 3rd world country levels. "But beware, says Mr Andy Smith, commodity analyst with Mitsui Busan in London. Of the 6,000 tonnes of gold currently being lent, these EU or "gold bloc" countries only lend 1,500 tonnes, and the other central banks have plenty more to lend and sell."And in the mean time, margin calls abound (rumors), leading to the selling of stocks and bonds. Golden Truth (9/29/99; 15:52:47MDT - Msg ID:14906) TO ORO Hey ORO who is "Druckenmuller"?? :-) jaydeevee (9/29/99; 15:44:29MDT - Msg ID:14905) Who sold heavily into the US market on opening? http://www.usagold.com Hi from Australia to all fellow gold bugs out there! This is my first posting in this forum which I have been reading every day with great interest for some months now. I cheered last night as I saw POG rise some $20 at a sharp 75 degree angle in London trading; only to be 'ambushed' on opening in New York. I find it difficult to understand (then who doesn't?), given all I have read and read again in this forum, why POG didn't show more strength given all the 'shorts, desperates' who are allegedly out there! Without wanting to sound negative, does POG fall another$20 tonight? Given all I have read in this forum, I just expected POG to be a little stronger at this stage of its recovery; and yes as you might have guessed I am holding large open positions in unhedged quality gold miners in Oz. Do I close some or hang in? I would really welcome your responses. You sure are an intelligent group of people! PH in LA (9/29/99; 15:40:15MDT - Msg ID:14904) Euro Circulation gidsek: "Are Euro denominated bank accounts widely available?"Yes, gidsek, they certainly are. Accounts held in Euro-land countries are all denominated in Euros, since all European Union currencies have been pegged together. This means that any bank transfers made between participating nations are done in euros. In Spain, everyone's account is listed both in pesetas and euros on their bank statement. Of course, this is done to help the populace make the transition and begin thinking in euro terms. In reality, there is no need since the mere fact of pegging the currencies permanently together was the action that created what is called the euro. I have even heard in Spain that somewhere in the country there is a town where printed euros are already being circulated as a trial, to look for problems and to observe how the new currency works in a quasi-real world. I am not sure if I believe those stories or not. It seems like there would be little to be gained from such an experiment... Sounds like one of those "urban legends" to me! ORO (9/29/99; 15:25:18MDT - Msg ID:14903) Soros I guess rumor has it that Druckenmuller wants to give his boss a bank as a Christmas present. Soros and his people are good at sniffing out weakness. Nothing is weaker than a short in an illiquid market. Once they are exposed they are prey. USAGOLD (9/29/99; 15:23:28MDT - Msg ID:14902) Question of the Day.... "This is really one of the most unhappy times for the market I have ever seen," Jessica Cross of Virtual Metals Researchand Consulting told Reuters.Virtual Metals? What have we here? And what an odd comment. Care to elaborate, Ms. Cross? SteveH (9/29/99; 14:59:55MDT - Msg ID:14901) Crescendos and Convergences www.gold-eagle.com UNCONFIRMED REPORT: Soros Buying Gold... but (vronsky) Sep 29, 16:05 Not 30 seconds ago we received an email from one of our field "operatives" that "Just heard that Sorros bought and paid for a bunch of gold from some big bank, demanded delivery, and theydidn't have it!"PLEASE BE ADVISED: this is an unconfirmed report. Leigh (9/29/99; 14:52:08MDT - Msg ID:14900) Goldspoon Hi, Goldspoon! The palladium horse is in the lead. He needs a name! The other horses aren't doing so well this evening. There's a farm down the road with some bulls on it...I think there's a golden-colored one (and he's REAL mean!) gidsek (9/29/99; 14:38:10MDT - Msg ID:14899) The Euro Now it makes sense.. Does anyone think that the choice not to print a paper Euro until (what was it now?) 2001 has anything to do with this? I supppose if there was a run to Euros any national currency would do.. they are all pegged together now aren't they?Are Euro denominated bank accounts widely available?Was the choice not to print Euros designed to keep the world out of that currency until action in the gold markets was finished?gidsek Journeyman (9/29/99; 14:23:56MDT - Msg ID:14898) Gambling I've made my living as a professional gambler for 25 years. The markets -- all of them -- ARE like a casino game. The analogy is almost perfect. The gold market is no exception. The first question someone in my line of work asks is, "Do I have an edge?" That's the hardest question to answer and to be sure of, but it's the most important. However, once you've answered it -- and most gamblers who last spend A LOT of time answering it, then you forget the fluctuations (they're inevitable) and do your job. If you change your mind and decide you DON'T have an edge, you stop playing IMMEDIATELY and look for another game. What seems obvious to me, however, is that many posters on this forum don't realize they're gambling and are psychologically unprepared to deal with the fluctuations. It takes time. Just pick a market chart, any market chart, and study it for a few minutes. Now another and another ... do you see ANY chart that doesn't have downward fluctuations? The gold chart won't be any different. And I think we have an edge. Regards, Journeyman Phos (9/29/99; 13:33:22MDT - Msg ID:14897) Tzadeak Sorry -should have included the copyright in the last post:TZADEAK* (@ The New Gold Bull.....) ID#372344:Copyright © 1999 TZADEAK*/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved Skip (9/29/99; 13:33:09MDT - Msg ID:14896) Media coverage on PM's In the local paper today there was the usual news on the financial page, yet there was NOTHING about gold's jump! Doesn't this make you wonder why the media cannot seem to be objective? Are most of the USA's newspapers ignoring what's happening in the gold market? Phos (9/29/99; 13:27:01MDT - Msg ID:14895) Golden Truth Take heart, one day does not make a market. The trend is up and the shorts are in trouble. Tzadeak posted on Kitco today---------------------------------------------Welcome ALL to the New Gold Bull......definitely NOT for the faint of heart....congratulations all who hung in there... Buy GOLD on the DIPS is my new one now.... As I predicted, the propaganda war againt Gold was defeated DEEP inside their propaganda public event at the BOEauction sale.... make NO mistake this is the New Gold Bull..... "they" have unleashed Gold from bondage, in part by the ECB announcement on caps on Gold sales/leasing....You say Gold is manipulated?? what a shocker..... Why? Why now?.... many complex reasons....A major one is the absolute need for Global monitization of the new OIL price, ie INFLATION.....New Prediction, OIL will be over US$ 30.00 by year end.....YES Gold is/will go up ,against ALL currencies, not jut the US$.... that's another one.....My previous prediction of US Gulliver Syndrome is unfolding before us.... "they" have returnedGold to it's role once again a world proxy/currency, a shelter/haven against world uncertainty, and believe me there is going to be plenty of it.....especially for the US....Don't loose sight of cause and effect....the current effect, short covering involve "The Battle of The Hedge Funds"...and will go on for sometime yet, some HF longs are/will force others to cover....paper can be "created out of thin air" BTW Tiger is denying reports that it lost 2 Bill US$ in Gold shorts.. speaking of Tiger word has it that it has accumulated 1/4 of the world's Palladium supply giving some credibility given the poor showing of PD lately, BUT watch out when this thing is out of the way....OPEC has learned well from the CB's in the control of OIL, It will flood the markets as soon as any NEW Oil is ready to hit market, thereby using it's excess capacity as a whip on any new major Oil projects....The NEW OPEC will once again hold the west up for ransom, the ARABS in particular know they havemaybe 20 good years left ..... and the Sud-Americanos are getting cojones...the West will develop and begin to widely impliment car batteries ( 3-5 years ) ... You HAVE to love those "white metals"..... The world is now in a fluid state, WTO is nowhere, China is holding out wants to change the "rules"....and the Euro's are coming on strong.....,let the "Battle of the Currencies" begin.... Predictions: Gold will be $400.00+ by next year, with much more to come..... Inflation will be a household word again.... Gold shares will do well especially unhedged miners and Juniors with probable NEW Gold finds... New realities for Gold miners worldwide..... South Africa will nationalize Gold mines by 2004-7 and head the "United States of Africa"..... ORO (9/29/99; 13:26:52MDT - Msg ID:14894) Lease Rates The breakup is not upon us yet, since the price is stable.The high lease rates are burrying the shorts ever more deeply, but they are getting gold from some source, perhaps from previous borrowings?. Lease rates drive for a market neutral borrow Yen, buy gold, lend gold (borrower sells gold), for a very high interest rate spread. This buys time but makes the final payoff that much dearer.Charts say we are near an interim bottom for a Fibonaci .38 retracement in gold and its shares. Lease rates support this, as SJ Kaplan says about gold prices increasing if high lease rates persist during a steep short covering rally. By the way, his reasoning was appropriate for the situation, as was his call. I was trying to do the same, but have the habit of demanding highish prices through limit orders. Though I usually have a good success rate, this time, there was an 85% failure rate, vs. the normal 30-40%.The Euro is making good progress, up 2.4% (peak) over 3 days, as the bonds crumble. Charts indicate a return to 6.3% is probable, as is an additional decline to the 6.7% area. Is Europe selling its treasuries? What it could not palm off on EM debt refinancings?Merryl futures analyst O'Neil on CNBC still refuses to believe that the possibility of official re-recognition of gold as money is being enforced right now.Bingham looks so old, oy.He does have a great deal of old school economists' common sense, as his marvelous article on the "Gold Pyramid" indicates.ANOTHER and FOA, though you think the US monetary crumbling will cause a deep, if not disasterous, recession in the US, the possibility of the US monetizing its debt should combine with an agreement with the G7/G10 to avoid an attack, if the US is out of the trade deficit picture. Though this would cause a devastating inflation over a prolonged period, it may avoid a step wize one time devaluation of the $ that would kill US markets, bankrupt banks, and damage Europe as well. If de-dollarization is done gradually, the US can reindustrialize and provide value for the many green papers and perpetual paper generators (bonds) the world is stuck with. I believe the issue now on the table is whether the US would be foreclosed or restructured. Japan would indeed suffer badly from the rise in $ oil prices, since it has saved up $ in order to buy that oil during its current period of retirement. It obviously understands now the offer it should not have refused, when you, ANOTHER, and your group approached them. Their neo - Keynesian training must have caused them to think in the wrong terms. Netking (9/29/99; 13:17:10MDT - Msg ID:14893) Hedge funds scrambling http://www.afr.com.au/content/990930/invest/invest1.html Hot off the press this morning another look in the ongoing hedge fund saga.Media saying;"Volatility levels have leapt over the past few days from 12 per cent to 47 per cent and traders are referring to the market as "chaotic, wild and uncertain"Above all your getting, get wisdom, for she has more value than ... yes even fine Gold!Happy trading - Netking Golden Truth (9/29/99; 13:02:51MDT - Msg ID:14892) To PHOS You're right it's all about perception.When the P.O.G is going down it's all doom and gloom, and when it's going up it's all euphoric.This GOLD rally is starting to look more like a flash in the pan, and i,am still not making any money! Actually i'd need P.O.G to be at $310.00 just to break even, this is a very volatile market. "Changing into vapor easily".G.T Golden Truth (9/29/99; 12:47:41MDT - Msg ID:14891) TO PHOS Thanks PHOS for the speedy reply! Now i know its the diff between the treasury rate and the gold 1 month lease rate.The treasury rate is what? or where can i find it.I don't imagine your talking about the 30yr bond rate,right?Thanks again, just trying to learn this to fully understand the GOLD lease rates better. Thanks for your time and sorry to pick your brain clean. :-)G.T Phos (9/29/99; 12:43:19MDT - Msg ID:14890) Spot close Gold Truth - thank you for the conversions. It was interesting to watch the last few minutes before the market close as spot dipped below 300. I assume the shorts wanted it to close below 300 for the psychological value just like the PPT (or whoever it is) tried to pull the Dow to positive territory yesterday before the close. Psychology seems to be the name of the game in these markets. Golden Truth (9/29/99; 12:35:29MDT - Msg ID:14889) GOLD CAPPED AT $300.00??? Looks like GOLD might be stuck in the $300.00 range, just like it was in the $255.00 to $260.00 range.I sure hope not! If so this really sucks, lets hope i,am dead wrong,personally i,am hoping i've never been more wrong in all my Life! :-( G.T Phos (9/29/99; 12:34:11MDT - Msg ID:14888) Golden Truth (9/29/99; 11:58:51MDT - Msg ID:14884) You don't mean lease rates going negative but forward rates. I think that the difference between the lease rate and treasury bill rate (stand ready to be corrected on this) gives the forward rate. So if the 30 day gold loan costs more than the 30-day treasury, the forward shows the difference as -ve value. Goldfly (9/29/99; 12:32:23MDT - Msg ID:14887) Ha Ha.... The longs were smart today! They saved some juice til the end.Spot $302 but the close is coming... Gandalf the White (9/29/99; 12:19:30MDT - Msg ID:14886) Ok --- Enough secrets Goldfly!! Save some of my magic! -- <;-) Gold Dancer (9/29/99; 12:03:49MDT - Msg ID:14885) Pull Back in Golds I owned only one other non-gold stock which I just sold and put into Drooy 2 1/16. I am happy for the pullbacktoday. Buying the dips in a bull market......fun. "Hold still we see the whites of their eyes"; all I cansee is the dust storm on the horizon right now. Patience. Breath slow. Wait. Gold Dancer Golden Truth (9/29/99; 11:58:51MDT - Msg ID:14884) TO PHOS Yes, when the B.O.E sells 25 tonnes that is metric.Example 1 tonne=32,150 troy oz's.So if B.O.E sells 25tonnes(times)32,150troy oz's it's = to803,750troy oz's.Also 32.15 troy oz's = 1 kilogram.Also 1 troy oz = 1.0971 ounce avoirdupois (U.S)Also 1 ordinary pound = 14.58 troy oz'sAlso 1 troy pound = 0.37224 kilogramsAlso 1 ordinary oz = 0.9155 troy ouncesLastly 1 troy oz = 31.103grams = 480 grains.Hope this helps? Can i impose on you to explain what is meant when lease rates go negative?Does that mean it costs more to borrow gold at 9.7% than it would for a regular type loan, i think i,am right but i,am not 100% sure?.With all the talk about lease rates and them going negative it's kind of nice to be on board with the proper "lingo".T.I.A G.T Al Fulchino (9/29/99; 11:32:21MDT - Msg ID:14883) MK MK, thanks for the latest issue of News and Views. Lots to contemplate there.Aside: I see you are a football fan. If you are ever are up this way, I have Patriots season tix, front row goal line. My Pats may finally win one over your Broncos this year. :) Tomcat (9/29/99; 11:29:02MDT - Msg ID:14882) Goldfly I set it up to work by the minute. The five and ten minute views give great perspective. Also, I like the black background. Works great. Thanks. Goldfly (9/29/99; 11:07:51MDT - Msg ID:14881) PH I don't pay fo' nuttin' on the I-net.. Goldfly (9/29/99; 11:01:45MDT - Msg ID:14880) Tomcat http://forex.freeservers.com/main2.html Try this link, it only gives you the frame that the ticker and chart are in.To get to the Gold quote click on the down arrow next to EUR and select GLD then select the down arrow next to Daily and you can get it in ticks, mins, weekly......If you double click on the chart itself you can adjust what kind of charting it does. I just turn off everything other than RSI.HTHGF PH in LA (9/29/99; 10:54:57MDT - Msg ID:14879) Quote.com Goldfly/Tomcat:I also tried the quote site and couldn't get it to work for me either. Do you have to be a paid subscriber? The site says you don't. The Kitco graphs are great, when they are working. Unfortunately, every time the action heats up, they take a dump. Would be great to have an alternative. Orca (9/29/99; 10:48:03MDT - Msg ID:14878) Get ready folks... cause the best and brightest are NOT in charge PLN, Indonesia's national electricity board, was recently asked by an Indonesian newspaper about its Y2K Preparedness. The reply is a gem: "we can observe what happens (at midnight 1999) in Western Samoa, New Zealand and Australia and still have 6 hours to make plans". koan (9/29/99; 10:47:03MDT - Msg ID:14877) finally a correction This correction in the PM's was needed and is healthy. But watch oil. It just blew through $25. The stronger oil is, the strongeer this move will be. This move in the PM's looks like it is goung to be a great adventure. I think one big variable affecting all of the commodities is Russia's declining ability to produce. They postponed exporting heating oil until October 1 - need it for internal consumption. Thats a big deal. scp (9/29/99; 10:36:38MDT - Msg ID:14876) Thoughts Why did the CBs make this announcement the week before thefed meets? Are they trying to force Easy Al's hand?Isn't it funny that the administration today announced thata debt buyback plan will be ready by 1st quarter 2000.The rest of the world is tired of hold US debt and is demanding that the US get its house in order. Will we??....I doubt it, we're an arrogant bunch. Tomcat (9/29/99; 10:31:29MDT - Msg ID:14875) Goldfly Hi Goldfly. Nice of you to ask. I did try it. Actually I tried it when you originally told us about it. I am using Navigator and it loads very slowly. But that is not the problem. I couldn't navigate around the site and did not see how to get to the gold and silver quotes/graphs. Any suggestions. Broken Tee (9/29/99; 10:23:24MDT - Msg ID:14874) (No Subject) Elevator Guy,Truthfully I'm not sure exactly what is happening. It seems that the powers that be, play with us as they will and we can only hope to be in the right place at the right time. My gut feeling is that all the deficient spending of the past decades, like the chickens, will soon come home to roost and when that finally occurs there will be hell to pay. I just hope to be in the quietly sitting in the right place, Gold. When and what will be the triggering factor is the wild card. Goldfly (9/29/99; 10:20:56MDT - Msg ID:14873) Hey Tomcat! Did you try out that site yesterday? I hate to say it, but I find it works better with Explorer than Navigator.... Tomcat (9/29/99; 10:16:01MDT - Msg ID:14872) Opportunities This group has formed a solid, if not golden, foundation from which we make PM decisions. Its a great foundation and it is getting stronger by the hour. With this in mind, I think it is unwise to be overly concerned with drops in the POG/POS at this point in time. My approach is to let the prices drop and buy in the dips. As long as the lease rates stay high and forward rates are negative we are positioned well for the long haul. Remember, if the POG/POS runs up very fast many of us who want more will not be able to get our gold/silver at good prices. If dips occur, and I am sure they will, and you don't see them as opportunities, then rereading the archives might help to restablize your bull viewpoint. This approach really helped me as I bought gold/silver as they decreased in price. I would often lose confidence but after rereading some key posts by FOA/Aristotle/Aragorn/ORO etc. I would get right back on track and continue with my plan. Goldfly (9/29/99; 10:13:50MDT - Msg ID:14871) Lift Dude..... Easy big guy, easy! I think Broken Tee's post was pretty heavy with, uh.... Irony - that's it. (We won't say "sarcasm" that wouldn't be polite....)You know, you just look at all these people who are bought and paid for in the press (not just the finacial press either) and you have to laugh. They are so wrapped up in the status quo and the interests of the conglomorate that owns their network or newspaper that they can't see straight, let alone speak the truth about what's REALLY happening. GFD (9/29/99; 10:13:25MDT - Msg ID:14870) Thank You WAC, USAGOLD and The Invisible Hand We are now "in the fog of war" and must expect contradictory information for a while. Will keep people posted on success at buying bullion at my end.WAC, it would be most appreciated if you let us know whether your bank backs out or will deliver. And thank you for your early alert! elevator guy (9/29/99; 10:01:11MDT - Msg ID:14869) What is your position, Broken Tee? Do you agree with the tube?Are you aware of any fundemental factors that may push goldprices much higher?Have those analysts on the tube predicted this run up?Do we get good information from the media machine? Peter Asher (9/29/99; 9:46:26MDT - Msg ID:14868) Koan http://www.kitco.com/lease.rate.html Compare Silver to Gold. Intresting, yes? Broken Tee (9/29/99; 9:30:54MDT - Msg ID:14867) Shorts Covering On last nights addition of the Nightly Business Report. They spoke with the PM analyst for the firm of A.G. Edwards, a Mr Vott(sp). His comment concerning the run up on the cost of Gold, was that the Shorts were covering. He saw gold only going up a little further. Who knew???? Thats why he makes the big bucks and has the great perk of appearing on the Tube. USAGOLD (9/29/99; 9:01:03MDT - Msg ID:14866) Today's Market Report: Notes on Day Three's Early Trading MARKET ANALYSIS (9/29/99): Day Three of the Big Breakout....Notes: Gold up $12.50 early on ($322.50 on the December Comex contract); now down $4 in volatile trading. Yesterday a big day. High volume at CPM. Rocky Mountain News runs the following headline: GOLD FOOLS ANALYSTS, AWAKENS FROM NAP. Wonder which analysts they are talking about --the same ones who believe that the stock market will never go down, the dollar will stay up forever and that the economy no longer cycles? The liberal Denver Post didn't even mention the word "gold" on their financial page. Lease rates hit 9.7% overnight in Europe -- hint of things to come or a peak? Reuters article this morning: "The European central banks that pledged curbs on gold lending at the weekend have set off a surge in bullion lease rates that threatens miners and speculators alike, dealers and analysts said on Wednesday. Lease rates snapped out to 10 percent for one-month loans on Wednesday, from 0.5 percent earlier this year." Don't miss the first link below, fellow goldmeisters. The London Bullion Market Association chairman, Martin Stokes, says the high lease rates "should" draw fresh lending into the bullion market. One problem: The European banks have already renounced fresh lending, the third world banks are tapped out, Australia and Canada have just about run the well dry -- where's the metal going to come from Mr. Stokes? At any rate it should be an interesting day. See you back here tomorrow. Have a good day, my fellow goldmeisters. Those of you visiting USAGOLD for the first time should follow the links in our Daily Market Report (See top of page) if you are curious about what's happening in the gold market. The Invisible Hand (9/29/99; 8:51:45MDT - Msg ID:14865) Belgian banks WAC,I did not want to contradict you.I just wanted to know whether the Kredietbank was still selling and, once I had that answer, I wanted to inform the Round Table. WAC (Wide Awake Club) (9/29/99; 8:48:33MDT - Msg ID:14864) Crude http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990929/qb.html Over $25!! WAC (Wide Awake Club) (9/29/99; 8:40:56MDT - Msg ID:14863) http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990929/qj.html Lease rates WAC (Wide Awake Club) (9/29/99; 8:30:55MDT - Msg ID:14862) FOA - Euro/Gold From Kitco:Date: Wed Sep 29 1999 10:09Cage Rattler (euro and gold rumours) ID#33182:Interesting rumour making the rounds that ECB may accept payment for outstanding gold loans in EUROs rather than physical gold. Gold lower and EUR/USD higher as a result FOA (9/29/99; 8:28:33MDT - Msg ID:14861) Be back later today, I think! Swiss Franc, Deutsche Mark, Euro all UP! Crude oil UP .70+/-!! Dollar, British Pound, Japanese Yen all DOWN! Lease rates indicate total blow out of gold pricing infrastructure!Is there a picture here? Gold turning into Euro Money!If you want to be "on the road" risk free, buy physical gold, only gold! WAC (Wide Awake Club) (9/29/99; 8:28:27MDT - Msg ID:14860) IVH - Our Bank is BBL We usually purchase bullion and we ordered 1.75kg on monday with no delivery. elevator guy (9/29/99; 8:12:20MDT - Msg ID:14859) whats up? The morning chart on kitco looks like a hurricane of something. I'm dizzy, and I have no idea whats going on. If physical gold sales are halted, does the price keep going up in the COMEX?Where is everybody, on the phone? USAGOLD (9/29/99; 7:35:26MDT - Msg ID:14858) QuickNote Just talked to Lenny Kaplan...Very active market again this AM...Lease rates are at 9.7%. No talk of any moratorium so far. Gold available but don't wait to buy. It could go lower but we don't think so. Not in this environment. Goldfly (9/29/99; 7:18:02MDT - Msg ID:14857) Spike!!! Bad boy. Baaaaaad dogie..... Spot $307.50 The Invisible Hand (9/29/99; 7:14:35MDT - Msg ID:14856) Belgium I telephoned to the person who sells me Maple Leaf coins at Belgium's Kredietbank.She told me, she's still selling.For what it's worth. Goldspoon (9/29/99; 7:00:31MDT - Msg ID:14855) Spot ...Spike Goldfly.... there aaaaalll over the room i can hardly keep up.....makin meeeeeeee dizzzzzzzzzzzy.....thud. Goldfly (9/29/99; 6:39:23MDT - Msg ID:14854) Here Spot! Here boy! Come on now….. Gooood doggie. That's a good fella, how are you doin' boy? Yeah, good doggie.Hey big guy, I know how lonesome you get when I'm not here all day…… So I got you a new playmate! I know you two will get along great! Come on Spot! Let me introduce you to SPIKEHa Ha. See, I knew you two would hit it off. You guys be good while I'm away now……..Spot now $317.30 FOA (9/29/99; 6:37:28MDT - Msg ID:14853) comment All: Very fast note: Everything is now officially "on fire"! It's exactly as Another said last night, "it's not as before"! ORO, do you see the rates???? Some people are going down, bigtime!!!! For the Bullion Boys, watch your stuff, make sure it's in your hands! Steve, I see the GATA note. At least they now acknowledge that there is a "risk" if gold guns up. We all have know "Another's Thoughts" for some time that gold would run like never seen before. I think this truly is it. Mr. Kaplan may have sold out of his mining shares for the wrong reasons, yet still made the correct call!!! What a world?? I'll try to post later, big things happening in Euroland. May have to leave? Don't know?Good Luck "WE ARE ON THE ROAD" FOA Goldspoon (9/29/99; 6:30:12MDT - Msg ID:14852) Platinum Gobblet... Ahhhhhhhhh..... every sip from my gobblet is sweeter than the one before.... and every time i check it's still full..amazing..... GFD (9/29/99; 6:20:18MDT - Msg ID:14851) ***** RED FLAG - RED FLAG ***** Please read WAC's post re inability to buy bullion in Belgium. THIS COULD BE CRITICAL. Mr. Kosares, any info you can provide on bullion availability in NY would be most useful in determining whether this is widespread.I will personally be buying some more bullion today so I can also confirm later if there is anything like a moritorium.Another could be right sooner than people thought. GFD (9/29/99; 6:13:34MDT - Msg ID:14850) Lease Rates apdchief: The way I view lease rates (rightly or wrongly) ia as a "real" indicator of the state of the physical markets. These rates mean that the physical is getting *very* hard to find. This may mean one of two things: a.) People need the physical to meet obligations and will now pay (relatively) "anything" to get the stuff; or b.) Someone is accumulating a large physical position to hammer the markets with. To put this in perspective rates ran as high as 70% for silver in the Buffet scare. Having said that the rates for silver are *very* high as well. Silver may be the dark horse in this race although it looks like gold may be a more luracrative play at the moment. Goldspoon (9/29/99; 6:13:14MDT - Msg ID:14849) FOA.... You said.....Goldspoon,What a day it was! The "Bullion Boys" at USAGOLD Forum got to march at the front of the victory parade. How about that Golden sun? It's a triple crown winner again! Up over 8% while the other metal horses had to eat his dust. Even most of the major gold mines went up, but are still out on the track coming in as stragglers (except for Goldfields, up about 17%) (I hate it when my only little mine investment goes up) (very bad for credibility) (smile). Somehow I think this is a bad precedent to start doing this. I'll stop while ahead.Townie said....(incase you missed it in all of the chatter yesterday)Special note to Sirs FOA and Aragorn III:This headline came into view from The Tower while this weary TownCrier scanned the horizon for the GOLDEN VIEW. I'd say you gentleman had better act to stake your claim on iron ingots before you get priced out of that market too, and into the next lower item. We do have reports that sand per grain is yet to make its run.Goldspoon says.....Thanks for lettin' your hair down...feels good.... don't it....(i have that effect on some people!)......Riding Gold Sun, the wind at your back and all us Gold Bugs cheering you own...me included!....Oh! lest i forget Silver Moon... watch him in the home stretch...Buffet's got bet slips on him....but i've got both....GO Gold Sun!....Go Silver Moon!... Run Boys.. Run!Thanks for the fun....i know you're having a good time, and so am i....EF (Another) Hutton....he don't say much... but when he posts everybody listens...er reads!Keep us posted,... you're the best.... WAC (Wide Awake Club) (9/29/99; 6:10:18MDT - Msg ID:14848) **URGENT** *****URGENT****Belgium Meeting about Gold We ordered some gold on monday from our local branch of BBL in belgium. Normally, this would be delivered to our bank about 3 to 4 days later and the funds deducted from our account. However, we were informed today that we may not get the gold as the banks are now meeting to decide whether to continue to sell gold. Apparently, they said that a particular country (UK??) as decided not to sell any more gold and they are wondering whether they should continue to sell.FOX, where are you. Can you please try and confirm this? SteveH (9/29/99; 6:06:54MDT - Msg ID:14847) Phos 32,xxx troy ounces in 1 metric ton (12 troy ounce to a troy lb.) Tons as used for gold are metric. I thought I read a cubix ton of gold is about 30 some inches on the side (if a cube).Gold at (dec.) $319 now. andrew the kiwi (9/29/99; 6:05:10MDT - Msg ID:14846) you know what Koan, your thoughts, views and comments over the last while have been helpful for me, it must be some of that clean NZ air you inhale when you visit us.Gold to $350 soon or does this whole market default with an announcement from the G7 group/Fed. koan (9/29/99; 6:04:16MDT - Msg ID:14845) correction Platinum 429! Phos (9/29/99; 6:03:10MDT - Msg ID:14844) Gold measure Can anyone tell me how to convert from ounces to tonnes. Is gold shown in metric tonnes when they say BoE is selling 25 tonnes? How many ounces is that? koan (9/29/99; 5:59:12MDT - Msg ID:14843) Gold 320 - silver 5.80 - platinum 420 All thee PM have straight up charts as we near New York. This starting to look like 1980, not 1987. Pretty exciting. SteveH (9/29/99; 5:31:18MDT - Msg ID:14842) If I were a dow or Nasdaq and I knew what I knew I would turn off the light and go home. Markets likely to falter in near future. CNN this morning talked about the Market's volatility and how CD's and Money market funds were better than savings acount. Houston, you have a problem.... SteveH (9/29/99; 5:27:06MDT - Msg ID:14841) Holy big trouble! Kitco poster reports 1-month lease rate over 9%.Dec. Gold up $5.3 at $3.15 in London.cnnfn has poll going on asking about gold as a hedge against inflation.Kaplan may be learning that this isn't a technically predictable market as gold may have once been. NY open will confirm or deny that one.Oil up, now $24.42.US market pre-open indicators all in the red.Gold on the media capturing peoples attention.Dollar stronger against Yen.Yield rising on long-term bond.And, while I took the time to do this, gold is at $320!!! Phos (9/29/99; 5:24:03MDT - Msg ID:14840) Gold forward rates Gold forward rates have gone negative overnight. ORO warned that this might presage a market collapse/closure which could affect the gold stocks and gold options trading. Hopefully he may post here later with his views of what this might portend. apdchief (9/29/99; 5:22:12MDT - Msg ID:14839) Lease Rates http://www.kitco.com/lease.rate.html Lease rates have spiked:1 month 9.9000 +5.32002 month n/a3 month 8.8280 +4.32006 month 6.4580 +1.62201 year 7.0300 +2.2740Additionally, forward rates are strongly negative over all time frames. Please enlighten this newbie with the significance and indications of this lease rate spike. andrew the kiwi (9/29/99; 5:21:29MDT - Msg ID:14838) the stuff that shines is everyone in bed! 11.20pm nz time, Black Blade, on the subject of Aussies, one of our national pastimes is competing with them....18Karat, where are you? out back hunting dingos!!!I am riding this thing, not selling a cracker yet, no worries mate! RossL (9/29/99; 2:59:24MDT - Msg ID:14837) Morning in London Up 15 in the first two hours in London !! Usul (9/29/99; 1:37:41MDT - Msg ID:14836) Behind Hashimoto's Remark on Dumping U.S. Treasuries http://www.japanecho.co.jp/docs/html/240506.html "Hashimoto replied that Japan had been "tempted to sell U.S. Treasuries and buy gold" on a number of occasions"So, if treasuries look like their trend is down (with yields up), and gold is starting a bull run of historic proportions, wouldn't you swap some of your treasuries for gold? Not quite as simple as that!- see above link."It was something of a mild threat. It seemed to imply that if Washington stands passively by when the yen appreciates to an unreasonably high level, Tokyo might use its financial clout to punish it..." elevator guy (9/29/99; 1:16:15MDT - Msg ID:14835) Good night, if anyones in here. . elevator guy (9/29/99; 1:14:47MDT - Msg ID:14834) Hang in there! I'm saying this as much for myself as anyone else.We gotta hang in there, cause there is still a lot of short covering to be done, at the NY open.There may be fresh buyers, as the word of the move in gold trickles through the media, to joey six pack. (my cousin)Check out Midas at lemetropole cafe to see who still has how much to cover. (its still a lot)Hope the banks don't crash.I'm gonna bail on a bankruptcy by any big boys, or lowered lease rates. (Lower lease rates, hmm... doesn't sound likely) SteveH (9/29/99; 1:12:28MDT - Msg ID:14833) Peter get some sleep Hey Peter. Lots of good GATA stuff out tonight.Kaplan appears to be a great trader. NY open will be interesting. I believe there will be a lot of downward pressure. Most interesting.Night. Peter Asher (9/29/99; 1:10:33MDT - Msg ID:14832) Uh-Oh http://www.kitco.com/gold.live.html Glad I sold one out of three today SteveH (9/29/99; 1:10:04MDT - Msg ID:14831) Dec gold now knocked to... $297.80 (hate it when that happens). Will the boys (and girls) knock her back to 288? Peter Asher (9/29/99; 1:07:29MDT - Msg ID:14830) Steve Sounds familiar> SteveH (9/29/99; 0:57:13MDT - Msg ID:14829) Gold dips below $300... Arghh! Hate that when that happens. Asking $301.30, bid 301.00 though. SteveH (9/29/99; 0:52:32MDT - Msg ID:14828) GATA So, what is meant by the sell signal comment?SteveH11:25p EDT Tuesday, September 28, 1999Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:What I'm sending below is just an anonymous post at the Kitco board tonight, purporting to be from a Wall Street trader, so you have to take it even more skeptically than most things. But it may have the ring of truth and I know you'll enjoy it as much as I did.CHRIS POWELL, SecretaryGold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.* * * >From www.kitco.comSeptember 28, 1999 Gold looks to be following the palladium script. Both markets were artificially sold down, both had large supply/demand deficits financed by producer and spec short selling plus the added kicker of government liquidation of stockpiles. Both markets imbued the players with the same sense of one-wayedness, and that way was down. Both turned on a dime. One market is in its 3rd year of bulling, while the other has snorted for barely a week. If palladium is the guidepost, then the big lesson to be learned, is not to lose your position. Markets which have been one way for a very long time often turn explosively and give little or no chance for bulls or bears waiting for a pullback. It would not be at all surprising for the price of gold to go straight up until it reaches a price which might be a high for many, many months, perhaps even a year. This will ensure that bears waiting to cover get slaughtered, and would be bulls never make a dime, or buy at the local top, because they were waiting for the pullback that never came. In this environment the only technical indicator that I would put any stock in is the lease rate. If it is true that central bank leasing is now on hold, then changes to the lease rate are now purely a function of loan demand. Loan demand only rises as a function of speculator or more likely now, producer short selling. It falls as producers or specs do buybacks or specs get long. Today lease rates went higher. The order flow at one desk which gives me some info indicated that producers were selling into this rally. They are insane. If this is going to be a really "big" move in gold, which seems quite likely, then there are going to be some producer casualties before this thing is over, along with the bullion banks which supplied them with the dope ... errrr ... gold. Back in the last great coffee rally in '94 (I think) the price of coffee started from a low of around 80 cents. At this point according to market lore, Starbucks, one of the biggest consumers, could not find it within themselves to buy any price protection. You see, coffee was going to $0.60. At $3.00 the same geniuses hedged about 18 months worth of consumption, oops. There are lots of rumors currently flying around the market about Mr. Armstrong's position, which is supposedly still uncovered. Rumor has it that the counter-parties are going to take a big hit. There is still the matter of millions and millions of ounces of calls sitting from 360 on upwards. They together will act as a giant attractor sucking the gold price into an accelerating upward spiral. They are the evidence of the real story which is the producer hedge book, which is going up in flames. There will be some companies that did their hedging by selling tons of out of the money calls 'knowing' that they could always delta hedge them back if things started to rally. The models did not call for the price of gold to go vertical with a concommitant rise in option vols. I'm still waiting to see the headline which I've spoken of in the past, GOLD RISES $60, XYZ Gold Declares Bankruptcy. That will be the sell signal, and not a day before. -END- SteveH (9/29/99; 0:40:38MDT - Msg ID:14827) Dec gold now... $303.80Peter, was it the fuel cell?Cavan Man, I think it would be bad for their outcome to come to pass, but their message is important to understand if to just do one's part to pray and hope the worst of their picture does not occur. But, admitedly their theories seem to track events closely, their timing is off -- at least that has been my (and I believe ORO's) observation. In other words, the intuition factor kicks in high gear to confirm a modicum of shared ethereal coroboration of their thoughts (AG be jealous). koan (9/29/99; 0:40:15MDT - Msg ID:14826) Gold and silver - a new day Now that the cap has been taken off of gold a new psychological day has begun. I think we will see some very exciting and volatile times ahead. All 4 of the PM's are doing very well. I am surprised at their continuing strength as I would have expected producer selling to slow things down more - demand must be very strong. I expect gold to work higher; and once silver gets through 6.00, I expect it to go straight to 7.00. Silver 6.00, has historically been a ceiling and 7.00 has been a floor. Silver does not seem to care much for the 6.00 range. Once above 7.00 that floor should prove very very strong. Of course this is all a guess. Platinum, boy what a powerhouse, blew right through 400. At last some more or less normal trading. This whole thing feels like it wants to take the PM's to a whole new level of trading where they should be; like 400 plus gold and 10+ silver and 500 platinum. The only time in the last 20 years I have seen this type of action was in 1987, so I am going to use that action for my GUESSING. This is like opening a new mystery novel, where it goes nobody knows, but half the fun is finding out. Last, I wonder if the central banks finally figured out that strong representative gold prices are good for all countries as it provides a good strong backing for their currencies and helps the poor countries where exporting gold is very helpful. Artificially suppressed gold prices helps no one. Sure took them a long time to figure that out. Farfel (9/29/99; 0:20:22MDT - Msg ID:14825) Several Random Thoughts from a Contrary Indicator :-) Now that I have been officially appointed the gold market's contrary indicator, I feel a great pressure lifted from my shoulders to cheerlead this barbarous relic. Thank God, it was tiring to fight intellectual battles with the New Paradigm crowd on an almost daily basis! Anyway, here are some idle thought, take them any way you want:Much anxiety today about gold stocks dropping while gold surged. However, it seems kind of comforting to see gold stocks exhibit perfect negative beta to general equities. Since the DOW/NAZ rallied strongly from its lows at the end of the day, why the big surprise that gold stocks fell? Most likely short-term profit-taking by bottom accumlators, transferring monies to resurging tech stock favorites. Seems to suggest that when or if a market crash occurs, THIS TIME gold stocks will be an equities flight to safety and will rally strongly, unlike the 1987 Big Dump.Perception shifts or New Gold Paradigm: I think one of the most surprising aspects of this new gold rally is the lack of negative news articles slamming gold as a barbarous relic. True, its huge rally is largely ignored by much mainstream media; but on the other hand, at least, they no longer seem to mount daily assaults against it. Perceptual shift, maybe? At least, various Big Establishment players now participating on the long side and happy to ride the new money-making wave.Gold Rally's biggest obstacles: gold producers and die-hard goldbugs. The former have been so beaten down financially that they feel compelled to hedge into any rally. The latter have been conditioned for years in a Pavlovian manner such that every time they've seen any TWO dollar plus rally, they immediately have acid thrown all over their hopes and dreams. So, profit taking every 24-48 hours is now the norm with goldbugs.Anyway, it will be interesting to see what develops. If day traders move actively into gold stocks, then gold technical theorists may have to throw away their charts.ThanksF* Tomcat (9/29/99; 0:07:59MDT - Msg ID:14824) ANOTHER/FOA ANOTHER/FOA: Surely, both of you have been there for all and you have tolerated our confusions during our time of growth and learning. It is so hard to find find the right words of thanks. As a child I heard the following story which reminded me of your generosity and wisdom. Perhaps it will be accepted as a token of thanks.There once was a very wise king who was loved by all. On the King's birthday a prize was to be awarded to the giver of the most appropriate birthday gift. The merchants competed by giving the king many gifts of wealth and splendor. The poor, except for one very young boy, felt they had nothing to offer and did not participate in the competition. At the birthday party the young boy arrived and requested an audience with the King. His wish was granted. He told the King that all he had to offer was his humble juggling act and he asked to perform for his majesty. The young juggler performed with all his heart and he won the competition. His prize was the privilege to travel throughout the Kingdom giving the same performance and the same message as a gift to all. For many years the people of the Kingdom discussed and discovered meaning of the King's choice. It is said that those years were the finest years for all throughout the Kingdom. Click Here to view yesterday's discussion.
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