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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 5/29/1999
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canamami (5/29/99; 21:40:34MDT - Msg ID:6846)
Various Topics
Some points, in point form:

1. Thank you SteveH for the excellent summary of FOA/Another, in post# 6820.

2. While walking downtown today, I came across (to me) a new coin shop. Walked in, just to browse, and made my first purchases of physical precious metals. I bought a one-quarter ounce $10 Maple Leaf, and a one-ounce silver $5 piece. I've now added some modest diversification to my asset base.

3. Thank you to MK, for whetting my appetite for physical precious metals, through this site and through the kind sending of a silver American Eagle after the Fifth Horseman contest (however I don't recall being named a winner).

4. Of interest to Canadians, the following is apparently the sales tax regime for PM's in Canada. There is no GST (i.e., federal sales tax)for bullion (pure - i.e., .9999 - gold, silver or platinum). However, if it's only 22K or 14K, then it's taxable.

With respect to provincial sales tax, six provinces have sales tax on PM's. This apparently "kills" the PM coin market in those provinces. The four non-tax provinces are Alberta (no sales tax in Alberta at all, the only free province in Social Fascist Canada), and the three HST provinces (New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland).

5. In reply to post# 6845 by SteveH, I submit we must always be willing to subject our beliefs and premises to question. We must be willing to submit our beliefs and premises to the judgement of objective reality. In the context of the gold market, this means we must sometimes read not merely competing goldbug theories, but examine the writings of anti-goldbugs (which I know you do, from your various posts). The search for Truth is never ending, and I find I'm lost much of the time.

6. Off-Topic - Speaking of subjecting premises to objective truth, and disinformation, I also strayed into the casino today, while walking downtown. I've mastered blackjack basic strategy, and most books posit that the odds in blackjack are roughly 50/50. Yet, my life experience teaches me this is not so. Can "basic stategy" and "50/50 odds" be disinformation from the gaming industry, designed to pluck feathers from suckers such as myself? (Luckily, I only bet the $5 chips, but my losses could have bought a 1/10 ounce Maple Leaf, or 5 one-ounce silver $5 pieces). Sorry for going off-topic, but I'm coming to the conclusion the odds certainly aren't close to 50/50 in blackjack, and I'm concluding that "basic strategy" is a ploy of the gaming industry.

A good weekend to all.


SteveH (5/29/99; 20:48:28MDT - Msg ID:6845)
Where is truth in this?
My take on this was gold price is dropping because production cost is dropping. Ok...and?

Also, me thinks some of her facts are questionable, "...Essentially, stores of primary and scrap metal are rising just as the overhang of above-ground stocks is becoming more burdensome. First, newly mined supplies of gold keep growing because production costs continue to decline. In 1998, weighted average total production costs fell 20%, to $261 an ounce, according to figures from Gold Fields Mineral Services ( GFMS ) . Hence, despite the steep drop in prices ( the metal closed at $270 an ounce Friday ) , production has risen...."

This seems contrary to what I have read elsewhere. Yes price is dropping but not owing to a supply-side glut. Rather, the market is divided into physical and paper gold.

Gold-mine production is sold years forward. Per USAGOLD it would seem that "holy" gold (Vatican) and Saudi Gold may be the only large-quantity being loaned out, but it also sounds that it has to be returned by Christmas. So, the below article facts just don't seem to add up, do they?

The fact is that the physical end of the market is most secretive and is not visible to the author (or us). All we see is paper trades, all else is pure conjecture.

To her credit though she is correct, imo, that the gold market new media (those who report on gold) ignore the positive and expand the negative and that the gold market ignores what does make it through to the press.

May 31, 1999
Gold Glut

The metal still may not have bottomed

By Cheryl Strauss Einhorn


One of the few commodities that has yet to find a bottom is gold. The problem is on the supply side. Essentially, stores of primary and scrap metal are rising just as the overhang of above-ground stocks is becoming more burdensome. First, newly mined supplies of gold keep growing because production costs continue to decline. In 1998, weighted average total production costs fell 20%, to $261 an ounce, according to figures from Gold Fields Mineral Services ( GFMS ) . Hence, despite the steep drop in prices ( the metal closed at $270 an ounce Friday ) , production has risen. Growth in total mine output jumped 8.5% in 1998, says GFMS. Production is expected to rise 2.5% this year and 1.2% in 2000. And while some industry pundits thought falling prices might deter scrap recovery, this activity actually rose 71%, to 1,098 metric tons a year, from 1996 to 1998. The increase came even as gold was slumping from $388 an ounce to $294 in that span. "Scrap production has been consistent and indifferent to prices," says Peter Richardson, global head of commodity research at Warburg Dillon Read. In addition, the market is being forced to reassess the supply risk of above-ground stocks as well. The majority of those supplies -- which are ample since gold is not a consumable -- are still owned by central banks. Yet today, central banks are more willing to lend out their gold than ever before. These loans let miners hedge against future production. Those hedges, in turn, allow miners to further increase their production, despite falling prices. Too, stocks aren't just being managed differently, their ownership is changing. Not only are central banks no longer uniformly considered strong holders of gold, but the market doesn't know what sort of entities might be considered "strong hands." It's unclear who the new gold owners will be when, say, the Bank of England begins to shed more than half of its reserves this summer. Also, no one knows how committed the buyers will be to owning gold long-term. The market is so focused on supply that it is ignoring virtually all other news. For instance, the market was indifferent to the recent announcement that Asians, who had been net sellers last year, have begun buying again. The market has also tuned out global chaos, both political and economic. Gold prices have fallen even amid the expansion of the war in the Balkans, while oil prices have sharply rallied.

However, the singular focus on supply may not be misdirected. New trends there may exacerbate gold's decline. Until now, most gold mines produced mostly gold. But recently a host of companies have found mines with gold as the secondary metal. Thus, gold can now be mined as a byproduct, like silver. Newmont Mining, Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold and Noranda all have projects in which they're essentially mining for copper but are also producing gold. And while such byproduct metal accounted for only 9% of total production in 1995, some estimates show that the figure will hit 17% by 2005. "This has tremendous long-term implications for gold," says Richardson. "This will mean that producers will be even less sensitive to gold prices in the future." One final note: In part, recent price activity has been driven by large speculative net-short positions. These

trades have been quite profitable and thus the activity will likely continue. At times, it will lead to sharp but brief rallies as profits are taken. But inevitably, with such bearish fundamentals, rallies will prove to be selling opportunities for savvy investors. Newsletter writer James Grant, who pens the witty Interest Rate Observer, opined recently that gold actually has held up rather well, compared with the British pound, which can be "duplicated at next to no cost on a high-speed printing press." He predicts that "sterling's depreciation is predestined; the only issue is the rate of decay." Thus, he intimates ( as all gold bugs do ) that the Bank of England should perhaps sell its pounds but certainly hold its gold. In response, we note that, while the pound has had multiple devaluations since 1980, so has gold. Over the past two decades, the metal has slid from 240 per ounce to 170. And like the amount of paper money in circulation, the supply of gold can be expanded ever more cheaply, putting downward pressure on its value.





PH in LA (5/29/99; 19:42:30MDT - Msg ID:6844)
Suppositions inside of boxes
Christine and Barfly (whoever YOU are):

The question of the motives of Another and FOA has been floated before both here and at that other forum. Your own thinking on this subject is confined inside a box comprised of conspiracies and the projection of deliberate yet unclear motives on the parts of others, all seasoned with an unanswerable question on occasion. As if the mere posing of a question implied the veracity of your suppositions. Your own motives would fit just as easily into the very same box.

On the other hand, FOA's motives might just as easily stem from his stated belief that the purchase of physical gold is another element that eventually and ultimately will wrest control from the short sellers. Such a tactic might very well create pressure on the paper house of cards with the intention that it be unmasked that much sooner. After all, the paper and futures' markets are just another theoretical reality without the actual reality of a physical market and physical supply. One could just as easily create a futures market, complete with options, contracts, etc. based on the eventual landing of aliens on Earth, or the Second Coming.

Your contention, as I understand it, that FOA cannot be sincere because someone of his intellectual stature must have better things to do with his time, is just an unproved and unprovable supposition. Something that few thinking persons have the time to take seriously.



Tomcat (5/29/99; 19:39:37MDT - Msg ID:6843)
Another and Friend of Another

I don't know if this round-table has a motto. If it doesn't, may I make the nomination of:

"The profit in life is paid in the honor never received, for respect has no price higher than when truth is displayed for free" by Another/FOA.

Of course, this would have seconded and ok with MK and FOA. What say you, Sirs?


Tomcat (5/29/99; 19:31:29MDT - Msg ID:6842)
Thank you Steve H


Dear Steve,

Your recent posts summarizing so much have been indeed both informative and enlightening. My understanding of events is starting to occur; it is like a personal phase tranistion. It is hard to express all of my gratitude to you, FOA, Another and all those who contribute to this forum.

May we all continue growing together.



Christine (5/29/99; 19:15:40MDT - Msg ID:6841)
@SteveH
I am sorry, it doesn't work for me.

SteveH (5/29/99; 19:04:11MDT - Msg ID:6840)
Christine
6828 tells their motives.

SteveH (5/29/99; 19:01:26MDT - Msg ID:6839)
Wow again!
http://arol.arabia.com/content/business/5_99/un_27.shtml

UN Proposal to Safeguard World Economy

NEW YORK (Internews) -- The United Nations has proposed increased liquidity to fight off global financial contagion, the creation of regional reserve funds and tighter regulation of financial markets.

The policy document, made available here Wednesday, also defends the right of developing countries to determine their own capital control and exchange rate policies.

The UN report, "Towards A New International Financial Architecture,"
points outs that the tremendous growth and ever more sophisticated and
volatile characteristic of the financial world since the creation of the Bretton Woods institutions at the close of World War II has brought about a discrepancy between markets and the structure that regulates them
.
"As a consequence, the current international financial system is unable to safeguard the world economy from financial crises of high intensity and frequency and devastating effects," it says.

The report issued by a UN task force representing the five regional economic commissions, the Geneva-based UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the UN Department of Economic and Social affairs points to the need for additional contingency funds to be a permanent feature of the international financial system.

It recommends placing greater resources at the disposal of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and giving the IMF the authority to
issue Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) in anticipation of crises in member
countries.

The report says the anti-cyclical use of SDRs to manage financial cycles
should be part of the broader process aimed at enhancing their use of an
appropriate international currency for a globalizes world.

"Increased liquidity would allow the IMF to intervene earlier and more effectively in cases of runs on currencies and stock markets and would also help the IMF to organize debt standstill arrangements," the report added.

5.27.99 R..R



Christine (5/29/99; 18:52:57MDT - Msg ID:6838)
@SteveH&GoldUSA
It does not embarrass me, just puzzles me. I prefer not to be misconstrued.

@USAGold--I have never heard an explanation for FOA/Another's motives. This is a question that I never asked directly, but only implied and inferred the response. Again, as everything, only time will tell on all of this.

I do not intend to be rude to anyone. However, this is extremely serious business. Just because I have my gold secreted away does not mean that I will somehow be protected or aloof from what happens. Very few of my friends or family are prepared for what is coming. Even if I have my gold, my life will be changed for ever.


SteveH (5/29/99; 18:36:50MDT - Msg ID:6837)
Wow!
Boy did I stir a can of worms.

Gandalf, for the record. I knew.

For Michael, I presume you really are adressing Christine as I posted in the 2830 that I DO NOT AGREE.

For Christine, your thoughts and ideas are you own. I think I learned a lesson about what is said and where.

For FOA, I am sure you undertand the spirit of what is said and realize that how other perceive you helps you deliver your message better.

For all of us, we need to bow our heads and pray all of leaders act in responsible ways because tough times seem to be looming.



SteveH (5/29/99; 18:28:14MDT - Msg ID:6836)
Christine
First, I admire your courage.

I don't believe you did so that in different words to FOA. But then it isn't my business. I thought your words were germaine to recent events on this forum, which brings up the whole concept of reposting. Technically, this is new territory for Copyright law. Should something be reposted without permission or does the thread of ideas on the interenet rise above copyright. I don't have the answer.

If your ideas reposted here embarassed you I apologize. By the same token, if they did then only you can judge your words said elsewhere merited being said where others listen.

Keep up the dialogue, you are an original thinker.


USAGOLD (5/29/99; 18:28:00MDT - Msg ID:6835)
Steve....... on #6830
Was Harry Browne guilty of disinformation when "The Coming Devaluation" and "You Can Profit From a Monetary Crisis"? Both books were essentially anti-dollar dissertations and best sellers that made Mr. Browne famous.

Are Douglas Casey, James Turk, Adrian van Eck, Otto Scott, Jerome Smith, Richard Russell, Nick Gaurino, R.E. McMaster, Harry Schultz, Don McAlvany, Kurt Richebacher, Gary North, Michael Kosares, and countless others to be considered disinformation agents for a foreign government because they criticize the fiscal and monetary policies of the U.S. government and Federal Reserve?

What about the works of Milton Friedman, Ludwig von Mises and Murray Rothbard -- to name but a few?

This is the basest kind of criticism akin to calling to question an individual's patriotism because they criticize their government (when most government's are in dire need of criticism). Strange it would come from one totally consumed and obsessed with conspiracies ranging from one in the gold market to others controlling the world's governments.

I can only ask that FOA does not take this accusation seriously, and offer my unqualified support in the very responsible manner in which FOA and Another have carried themselves in every respect. We are honored by their presence at this Table Round.


Gandalf the White (5/29/99; 18:27:28MDT - Msg ID:6834)
Christine's note to Steve
Christine, I had no knowledge that the message on the other board from "Barfly" was from the same person as "Christine" on this forum ! (and I am quite sure that neither did Steve ! --- BUT, so what ? --- everyone can have their own opinions and be free to state them --- I use that old saying -- "IF one can not say anything nice, say nothing !"
<;-)


Christine (5/29/99; 18:23:15MDT - Msg ID:6833)
Why
I would ask you to speculate why person(s) of FOA/Another's intellect and economic knowledge have spent such vast amounts of time posting on the internet for several years. Surely they would have something more important to do with their time. But maybe not. Maybe what they are doing is considered pretty important.

Christine (5/29/99; 18:08:23MDT - Msg ID:6832)
@SteveH
I am puzzled as to why you would bring my post over here. Obviously I know people read the whole goldnet, so everything gets around. I will only add that I have directly said this to FOA, maybe not in those words, but similar words previously. It is not a secret re my opinion.

Chicken man (5/29/99; 17:12:18MDT - Msg ID:6831)
jon
I am trying to figure out what would be the advantage of investing in "a fund that invests in physical".......how could they make more on their investing sauvey than you could?.....other than the differant type of metals...ie plat, plad,ag or au......now if they are leveraging, then thats a differant story all together!
Listen to FOA & A.....keep your true wealth in your hand


SteveH (5/29/99; 16:13:33MDT - Msg ID:6830)
On the subject of information/disinformation
Oddly I found this after I wrote my piece on info/disinfo. It is from www.gold-eagle.com. Here again is a classic example of filters and how they are used. First, I DO NOT AGREE with this post, as I spoke my peace in #6820. But as it wasn't posted here for all off us to watch the rock privately. Watch what you say as it gets around.

@Barfly
(chris) May 29, 17:10

Believe it or not, I have pretty much the same cognitive/ perceptual style you do, IMHO. I am able to think outside of the box without much difficulty. But, people who question convention can likely be the most dangerous to a cabal of any kind. I have had lots of experience in my life with little cabals--they never like me very much. Just recently I concluded that alot of the disinformation on the net is likely targeted towards people who have no problem questioning convention, that are willing to consider unusual explanations for things. The disinformation is likely to keep more unconventional minds off track. I don't outright disregard any idea or claim, but I look at it with extreme criticism and logic. That was part of my long debate with FOA--I had to clarify in my mind what his true knowledge and purposes were. When I was done, I was satisfied FOA is a very deliberate disinformant, and not just an insider or hoax.
.



SteveH (5/29/99; 16:00:03MDT - Msg ID:6829)
Disinformation/Information
FOA,

Thanks.

Steve

New subject:

The strength and weakness of the internet is its amount and quality of information. What exactly can and should you believe. Truth in its purest form stands of itself, such as the boulder about to fall. Truth doesn't need a receiver just a sender. As in the book Flatlanders, truth is seen from ones own perspective and often is filtered by the quality of the receptor of such truth in that what is sent and what is received aren't perceived the same. In short, often...no...most of the time, if not always, we only see pieces of truth. It is up to us to seek out our filters, and learn the truth of their limitations, so we may judge the information as close to its source as is possible and know that within that information lies the truth, perhaps part, perhaps whole. Knowing as humans we filter is the first truth. The second is that we are part of truth and as such we affect it as it affects us.

The internet floods us with information unhampered by the populous media. In time, the corralling(?) of the internet may someday limits its signalling of truth, but today we enjoy a steady stream of information such that our filters need stand ready to work overtime to discern what is truth and what is anti-truth.

That said and in a more practicle light I present these disturbing posts such that if they are truth unfiltered, what is the practicle application of what they present. Are the conclusions of the posters the correct interpretation of the information or does the information tell us different than presented. I see the sale of US bonds at an alarming level. I see gold being forcast lower (and this is the matter I challenge). You decide:

Date: Sat May 29 1999 17:09
JP (Weekly Fed balance sheet update) ID#4934:
Copyright © 1999 JP/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
1.Nation wide US commercial loans declined by $1.6B last week to $947.4B.
2.Fed US holding of T bills for it's own account declined by $2B last week.
3.Foreign central banks holding of US T bills declined last week by $4.5B to S595B. Continued withdrawal of such large sums should make rates rise just as their investment slowed the rise in prior years.
What does it mean? Deflation is accelerating. We need a 4-6 more weeks of declining loans to confirm net deflation in the banking sector and by then the Fed will be pushing on a string NOT able to inflate any longer. As sales of T bills by foreign CB's accelerate, deflation will become a monster. With US consumers saving rates in the negative column, the public will stop spending money on luxury items items, vacations,new cars,etc. The public's confidence in big brother government will be badly shaken. I think that within 8-10 weeks we will experience a dramatic slow down in the US economy. Since the rest of the world is already in recession, the compounded effects of world wide recession will scare the investing public and equities may begin a long slide as profits vanish.By the fall,trade wars should be in full view and commodities cut throat prices should prevail.

Date: Sat May 29 1999 17:04
NewPhys (Gold at new 20 year lows, independent of local currency effects) ID#392177:
Copyright © 1999 NewPhys/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Dabchick: We appreciate your currency-independent gold price post. So -- it wasn't just the rising US dollar after all.
Ominous sign, isn't it? We have two problems -- gold is falling, and it is falling for an unknown reason.

The second problem is the worse one, because there is a real possibility that we are about to have another Oct 97 SEAsian gold fire sale. We should all be on the lookout for falling currencies. On the other hand, all of this may be due to fiat currency crowd worries about Y2K, or due to speculators dumping gold for one last run before the gold carry trade fails. Perfect time to buy bullion if you are one of the 'big boys', especially if you have been told what is happening and when.


Who would have guessed that this near Y2K that gold would be reaching new lows?

Finally (I know it is a third re-post):

Date: Sat May 29 1999 15:52
Dabchick (Valuing gold independent of fiat currencies) ID#258195:
Copyright © 1999 Dabchick/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Here are the Dabchick Gold Index figures ( calculated from the London Bullion Market figures as supplied to the F.T. by N.M.Rothschild ) for the past week. All figures refer to the London close.
These figures are intended to show changes in the True Value of Gold relative to its value in January 1982. Because these values are independent of debased fiat paper currencies, they are also independent of the inflation caused to all other prices by governments that indulge in fiat currency debasement.
Date..... | Close | High | Low |
24 May | 65.97 | 66.17 | 65.83 |
25 May | 65.42 | 66.00 | 65.42 |
26 May | 65.40 | 65.72 | 65.33 |
27 May | 65.38 | 65.54 | 65.03 |
28 May | 65.34 | 65.74 | 65.01 |
( Basis : Jan 1982 = 100 )
NB ( 1 ) The index closed at new 20-year lows each day Tuesday through Friday this week and ended the week at a new 20-year low of 65.34. The previous 20-yr closing low of 65.66 was recorded on 4th January.
Regards............Dabchick


-end-


Dabchick's figures seem to show that the value of gold or its purchase power has hit five new lows in a row. Is this deflation or the overpriced fiat currency system. I see reversal in these posts.

The system is in duress.




FOA (5/29/99; 15:12:37MDT - Msg ID:6828)
Comment
Steve,
I want to thank you very much for your clarifying post (#6820). There is little I can say that would change any aspect of it. You have presented these views in a manner that reflects a "local" style of thinking. For many, it will now be much more clear to understand.

I am not and never could be Another. My writing is an effort to further his thoughts to conservative people that wish to grasp future events in their true light. Not the illogical, often conflicting reasoning presented by "money traders in need of clients", "the media in need of viewer
ratings" or "political leaders holding debts that control their public pronouncements".

Another's reasoning and writing can be summed up as such (my writing / editing of his words):

"If someone knows who you are, they will first look to your status as confirmation for your Thoughts. The message receives not true consideration. Indeed, why betray your close friends and associates by divulging "privileged and private information", what means of honor have you
gained by presenting this same into public view? Nor does it build the character and reputation for someone that acts upon this new knowledge by making the unfair deal ahead of their friends. No, it is better for people to "travel their path" using the signposts of "human nature", so readily
displayed along the trail. If we state that a bolder is about to roll down a hill, most would not hear it. So let us show why the rock occupies the hill for the wrong reasons. Some will openly berate others for considering such nonsense. But, truly, behind the quiet mind, the fair person with an ear for such pronouncements will keep the most private eye upon the hill.

"the profit in life is paid in the honor never received, for respect has no price higher than when truth is displayed for free"

I am very busy, but may have some time later, and will reply to some recent posts. Also some ideas about recent events. thanks FOA






The Scot (5/29/99; 12:24:53MDT - Msg ID:6827)
GOLD GRAPHS
Could someone please tell me where I might find Gold activity annual graphs for the last several years. I am familiat with Kitco's site but they don't seem to have any of the latest years. Any info will be appreciated..
The Scot


Peter Asher (5/29/99; 12:05:43MDT - Msg ID:6826)
Michael !!
The French Angel came today. Thank you again !!

This is the most fascinating coin we have yet seen and felt. It will be the one we will purchase on our next order. Hard to describe, its like holding a precious antique.


Jon (5/29/99; 7:10:05MDT - Msg ID:6825)
message #6820; effect on market of stock of funds physically holding gold
Message #6820 was indeed extremely enlightening. I thank all who contributed. I have physical possession of gold, and am considering buying shares of funds that physically store precious metals. The shares of these funds actively trade on the various markets. In view of comments in referenced message - which I understand to relate to shares of mining companies only-I would appreciate comments on my consideration of the funds. Many thanks.



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