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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

FORUM ARCHIVES

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WELCOME TO THE ARCHIVES!

ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 12/29/1998
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

USAGOLD (12/29/98; 20:35:39MDT - Msg ID:1548)
Aragorn....
I just read that last quote from Rubin you pointed out and what I think he's saying in Treasury-speak is that we are confronted with an international monetary crisis. Not something that will effect just a few sectors of the economy -- as the Asian crisis has so far -- but all sectors as only a monetary crisis could.

Correct? An unguarded moment for Mr. Rubin or a warning to all before he exits the scene?


USAGOLD (12/29/98; 20:28:09MDT - Msg ID:1547)
Goldfly...
We did it again! Happy New Year, GF. Good to see you here tonight.

USAGOLD (12/29/98; 20:25:56MDT - Msg ID:1546)
Gold Gobbler.........
Rule of Thumb: Those who can't quote sources can't quote the truth. Doesn't matter where you see it. NBC, CBS or KITCO.

Sorry, I wish it were true. Mr. Greenspan thinks He is the gold standard. And that's where the matter stands. No offense intended as I can't help but like the guy, but perhaps another victim of rampant hubris? Washington -- the Arrogant Capitol as Kevin Phillips calls it -- does that even to the best among us. I make this observation gently -- like a worried friend. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that the same thought had crossed his able mind.

Goldfly (12/29/98; 20:15:22MDT - Msg ID:1545)
GG- You gotta be kidding.....

Of course it's a hoax. There was no link, no byline. The minute AG says anything remotely similar the market will drop 25% and gold goes to $1000. Well, maybe the market wouldn't drop, but gold goes UP!

I think somebody read my holiday composition and started fantasizing.

GF


**GOLD GOBBLER** (12/29/98; 19:32:37MDT - Msg ID:1544)
Is the U.S. buying Gold to support its dollar?
I just read on Kitco that Greenspan supports the purchasing of Gold to partially back the U.S. Dollar. Personally, I believe it's a rumor/hoax even though it makes PERFECT SENSE.

Can anyone confirm whether Greenspan has recently made such comments??? Thanks.

USAGOLD (12/29/98; 18:26:02MDT - Msg ID:1543)
Lemmings....A QuickNote
Peter, the lemmings have been trained to be "momentum investors". Value is a four letter word because the promoters know that such a thing does not exist in the stock market today. The lemmings will stampede our way when the the word "gold" shows up on the evening news...and falls like the finest crsytal from Larry King's trembling lips.

Travel safely, my friends.

To all: More later. We found our way this afternoon to the majestic Sangre de Cristo mountains. Warm for the mountains at present and not enough snow. I might wish I never said that before we get to the weekend. They say that's there's something brewing back to the west and heading this way. I will be posting as time permits. There is much to discuss.

Can't tell you how much I miss ANOTHER and FOA. Thought about them on the way down. Just got something very interesting from Austrian economist and friend, Tom Rose formerly of Grove City College -- a legendary economics department for those of us who follow the Austrian School. Will post it later either here or at Gilded Opinion.

USAGOLD (12/29/98; 18:23:29MDT - Msg ID:1542)
Lemmings....A QuickNote
Peter, the lemmings have been trained to be "momentum investors". Value is a four letter word because the promoters know that such a thing does not exist in the stock market today. The lemmings will stampede our way when the the word "gold" shows up on the evening news...and falls like the finest crsytal from Larry King's trembling lips.

Travel safely, my friends.

To all: More later. We found our way this afternoon to the majestic Sangre de Cristo mountains. Warm for the mountains at present and not enough snow. I might wish I never said that before we get to the weekend. They say that's there's something brewing back to the west and heading this way. I will be posting as time permits. There is much to discuss.

Can't tell you how much I miss ANOTHER and FOA. Thought about them on the way down.

Aragorn III (12/29/98; 14:06:45MDT - Msg ID:1541)
Perhaps there is to be no Show and gold wins a curtain call from the start
Consider the full implication of Mr. Rubin's final comment...
----------------------------
Rubin says focused on job, sees risks to economy

WASHINGTON, Dec 29 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin
declined in a newspaper interview to directly address rumors of his
imminent resignation and said he remained absorbed in his work.

"I'm focused on the issues in front of me," Rubin said in an interview
published on Tuesday in the USA Today newspaper. "That's where my head
is," he added.

The dollar was slightly weaker in morning U.S. trading due to rumors
Rubin may resign soon. Traders attributed the price movements to Rubin's
failure to dispel talk of his departure in an interview with CNN on
Monday night.

Rubin said problems in the world economy may strike home in 1999 after a
"very strong" U.S. economic performance this year and said he saw a
"lot of very serious challenges as we go forward".

These problems included attempts by Japan to revive growth in its
shrinking economy and the need by Brazil, Latin America's biggest
economy, to restore fiscal order.

"There are risks that the global economy could affect us, not just
sectorally but also overall," Rubin said.

Peter Asher (12/29/98; 13:15:04MDT - Msg ID:1540)
Michael!
Perfectly stated! --- I was about to write five times as many words to attempt to say half of that. We are going to be on the road to and from and around LA for the next ten days, but will be able to connect from time to time. To me the big Item is, "what has to happen for the multitude of investment lemmings to start following a different piper ?"

SteveH (12/29/98; 13:05:37MDT - Msg ID:1539)
Feb gold knocked down at end of NY trading again...$287.20
and is becoming a notable patter that escapes no ones view. Regarding my earlier post, what do you think other scenarios are that could replace the one presented? In other words for those who play better chess than I (and that means all of you), what are the likely alternatives?


SteveH (12/29/98; 12:59:45MDT - Msg ID:1538)
ok folks so you say...
that the when is no later than six months from now. Some base it on the Euro and its competition for market share with the dollar. You say the dollar will find its way back home but I am confused by that. Where will it really go and what affect would a 10% or 20% or 30% change in reserves do to the $?

We have seen by a few posts that the Chinese officially support the intro of the Euro. We know the Euros will support the Euro. So let's play this out:

Euro comes out.
Europe maneuvers its reserves replacing something with something.
China support Euro doing same.
Oil country announces it will only accept Euros.
This starts train to Euro.
More countries swap around reserves.
US sees Euro is only way to buy oil.
US says dollar now back by gold.
Oil country says it will take gold, Euro or dollar now.
Meantime dollar went down, Euro and Swiss franc went up.
Gold goes up, shorts cover.

Am I missing anything? What is the time period over which this transpires?

USAGOLD (12/29/98; 10:55:16MDT - Msg ID:1537)
Steve@When.com.......A Wild Guess...Just for fun...
When? Beginning early next year -- before the first quarter is out. After the investment markets get their first inkling that the euro is for real and that the dollar is no longer standing atop the hill alone. Consider all the dollars sitting in the world treasuries that must find a home once they are jettisoned to make room for the euro. This is a physical reality American policy makers will be forced to remedy...if they can. If I were Robert Rubin I would be trying to find a way back to New York myself. Where will these dollars go? What magic act can make them disappear? Gold will serve as refuge for Americans...This will drive up the dollar price. Those short the market will be forced to square their gold positions for obvious reasons. There will be no carry trade because gold interest rates will have gone through the roof due to unforeseen physical demand and lack of supply. The shorts that have stood foresquare in gold's path for so long will be swept aside. Instead of the central banks being worried about controlling the dollar price of gold; their concern will turn to controlling the euro price of gold. That will be the difference................In other words, they will no longer need to control the dollar price, the euro will have replaced the dollar for their purposes. Think about that one.........long and hard.....as an absent friend has been wont to say.

Anybody who trades on what I just said is either crazy or doesn't like having whatever money they've got. I don't know any more than anybody else. The above is an educated guess. Is that enough of a caveat? I hope so. As I have said repeatedly, the best way to own gold is for the long run -- as an insurance against currency disaster. I don't like futures, options, forwards or leverage of any kind because of the time factor attached. I don't give stock advice. Though I see a spike in our future, I know not when. Therefore, I own physical with no fuse attached and no psychological burden accrued... waiting for the spike.

NORTH OF 49 (12/29/98; 08:38:28MDT - Msg ID:1536)
A CHARTISTS POINT OF VIEW
SteveH
To quote Sherlock Holmes, "It is fruitless to come to a conclusion based on insufficient evidence". Or something close to that. We may be faced with a more advanced and opposing situation whereby we are covered up with evidence, some supportive, some contradictive, and some purely irrelavent.

In regard to the ability to foresee just where and when gold will (and it will) make a move to the upside, aside from clairvoyance, I belive it is almost fruitless to try and come to a determination of this nature given the myrad of conflicting, supportive, and irrelevant information being hurled at us.

Enter, the world of technical trading. The predictive analysis of high probablilities--or simply put--"wiggle and wobble watching".

I have been using a system, based on the Chaos Theory, for about ten years now, and it has proven somewhat more accurate than not. If it was the Holy Grail, then I would have Warren Buffet for an assistant, however, it's pretty obvious that's not the case.

From what I can determine, gold should have began the bottoming process in mid-November. I suspect this process will be ongoing until mid-February with a double bottom back around the $280 area. This would also fall in line with a Elliott wave five completion. After that, the whole process repeats itself in a mirror image to the previous trend. I don't think any of us would complain about a ten year bull charge!!

Crude oil--again, my program is indicating a bottom around mid Feb.

S&P 500--is in a very very volatile position within the analysis of this program. It is an area where very brutal, extended moves are made. I'm sorry, but those moves are not direction predictable--just that they're big and just around the corner. One has to apply logic in this case--which is the more likely, or for that matter, sustainable--a further rocket launch to the upside, or gravity exercising it's undisputable right to bring things into perspective?

I know this doesn't exhibit the extremely indepth fundamental thought and analysis that prevails on this forum, but my unorthodox approach to life in general should be obvious so some degree by now.

North of 49

Gandalf the White (12/29/98; 07:58:55MDT - Msg ID:1535)
Steve's WHEN
I fully agree !
How about if we start NOW. This is as good time as any. The PREM on the S&P has been held up as high as possible by the PPT for the last two weeks and it looks as if they can not hold it much longer. Gold is breaking off the lows and the charts are looking like UP is the easy direction. The Euro is about to fly and the overseas $US looks as if the will start to return home. This is as good time for a bottom in the price of crude oil as any, SOOOOO let this be the WHEN time. The crystal ball is starting to look fine also, and the yellow is piling up in the hands of the rightful ones --- the gold bugs !
<;-)

SteveH (12/29/98; 06:57:24MDT - Msg ID:1534)
What matters?
If the insightful posts here and on other free-spoken forums have any significance based in reality then they should be a predictive indicator with a potential date-stamp of reliability. Most posts portend rising gold, lowering dollar, rising euro, increasing deflation, increasing inflation, rising oil, and lowering DOW.

Step back and look at these issues. They are the near opposite of the trend now. Were one to accept blindly these thoughts then that person would be bearish dollars, bonds, and all stocks except oil and commodities AND their portfolio would be gold, silver, and oil related investments, exactly those investments that are extremely beat up right now. They would be missing out on the top of the current market bull. If their timing was really bad they would have lost money as the oil and commodities sectors sank and they would have lost the opportunity to profit from that which has risen.

So, the posters here are excellent at pointing out that which is or that which isn't but I think we need to start working on that which will be and more importantly when it will be because I for one am sick and am tired of being on the short end of the stick from seeing too far into the future that I am out of sync with those who are making money. Let's work on the when, ok?

Steve

SteveH (12/29/98; 02:53:44MDT - Msg ID:1533)
Feb. gold $288.30 and rising...
eom

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