All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
The Invisible Hand (2/28/04; 20:46:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 117845)
Go figure!
http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,1158529,00.html
Interest rates 'to be cut in EU but held in UK'
Faisal Islam, economics correspondent
Sunday February 29, 2004
The Observer
The surging euro may force the European Central Bank to cut rates on Thursday, say economists. But the Bank of England, which also holds its monthly interest rate-setting meeting on Thursday, is expected to keep rates on hold.
Most independent analysts had assumed the Frankfurt-based central bank would also hold rates. But the euro/dollar rate - which nearly breached a record $1.30 last month - has changed the equation by holding inflation down across the 11-nation bloc. 'We maintain that the ECB will cut rates on Thursday because of concerns about growth,' said Lehman Brothers European economist Klaus Baader.
On Friday night German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder raised concerns about the strength of the euro with US President George Bush. Markets speculated that the ECB would feel pressure to cut rates to help the euro depreciate, particularly as the latest figures showed eurozone inflation at 1.6 per cent, well below the 2 per cent target.
Baader believes that Thursday's ECB meeting could mark a new style of monetary policy. Under the new ECB president, Jean-Claude Trichet, the European bank has begun paying greater attention to forecasts, moving it closer to the practice of the Bank of England.
The Bank of England is expected to hold off on further rate rises until May. Only one of 45 economists polled by Reuters predicts a rate rise on Thursday.
==
My problem with my msg#: 117840 of earlier this (GMT+8 – Usagold gold winter time +15) "morning", when The Observer Website was experiencing problems, concerning the problem with paper money from last Thursday's The Economist were the two points being pointed out by those who doubt the continued worth of paper money as a store of value point to two things. I think they are firstly that the price of gold has been rising even though official inflation is low and secondly the amount of debt that rich-country governments have been running up. Those debts are financed through bonds issues and once interest rates will rise, the price of bonds will sink, so that bond investors will be screwed.
Now, here you have the ECB wanting to help bond investors.
Or is it? What's happening?
And then I want to post this and there I meet Dollar Bill says in msg#: 117843 that bond investors will not be screwed.
I don't understand anything anymore. Give me the yellow, please!
Goldilox (2/28/04; 20:15:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 117844)
World shipping giant orders over 50 vessels from Chinese shipyards
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200402/27/eng20040227_136046.shtml
snippet:
World shipping giant A.P. Moller-Maersk Group said Friday in Beijing that it has so far ordered over 50 vessels from China, making the Danish-based group the largest foreign buyer of vessels built in China.
The A.P. Moller-Maersk Group signed contracts here Thursday with Dalian New Shipbuilding and Guangzhou Shipyard International to build four vessels for the group's fleet. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and visiting Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen witnessed the signing at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
With the signing of these contracts, the A.P. Moller-Maersk Group has ordered 51 large ocean going vessels from Chinese shipyards since 1996, representing a value exceeding 1.5 billion US dollars.
According to the two contracts, the group will order two 29,000dwt oil tanks vessels from Guangzhou Shipyard International and two 110,000 dwt oil tank vessels from Dalian New Shipbuilding.
Tom Behrens-Sorensen, chief executive of the A.P. Moller-MaerskGroup in China, said the group has ordered over 50 vessels from China in such a short span of years, which is the best evidence ofthe competitiveness and high technical level that Chinese shipbuilding has reached in recent years.
Goldilox:
For those who think China's manufacturing expertise is "low-tech", check this out.
Dollar Bill (2/28/04; 20:13:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 117843)
.,.
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Latest+Publications/2003/Red_Alert.htm
The Invisible Hand, Greetings. Here the author has lost me. I cannot share his opinion of bond investors.
It is too easy to assume they are missing all this.
"The problem may be that bond investors, far from being far-sighted, are in fact myopic, and are perhaps being fooled by the temporary disinflationary effects of excess capacity and debts built up over the bubble years in both Japan and America."
The link shows they are reviewing all this, a lot.
Sundeck (2/28/04; 18:47:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 117842)
Weekly Commentary
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/3232/content.asp?menu=forecasts&dia=2822004
By Naval Vithalani.
Snips:
"...
Every weakness in Euro, Gold and Sterling is seen as an opportunity to add.
...
In a typical ‘I told you so’ manner, Mr. Greenspan warned of a severe danger to the financial system from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the social security mess, record level of deficits and strangely enough he asked home owners to switch to flexible rates.
...
In the absence of interventions, the US Dollar would move down to an equilibrium level and start doing its job in trying to help the US economy recover. The only thing that this intervention is achieving is creating bigger imbalances in the system.
..."
Sundeck: ...kind of an interesting overview of where we are at the end of Feb 04...
Mr Gresham (2/28/04; 18:37:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 117841)
Spring Ice Melt
I remember seeing the float in the middle of the Yukon River in Alaska, which townspeople use to place their bets on when the river ice first will move in the Spring thaw.
Greenspan's taking aim at Social Security this week has put everyone on notice, and I think we are going to see a lot of IN-security surface out of the stasis that people have placed their future survival in the grip of.
That Ice Pack is going to start to move, and move with increasing velocity. And, like the Yukon, the pile-up of broken ice chunks stuck in transit downstream often causes disastrous flooding alongside the river.
The few who are funding their retirements with adequate amounts in 401k and pension plans are relying inaccurately on stock and bond market holdings, which will implode when a small fraction tries to cash them in, if not before.
Behind them are the majority who have a mathematically absurd reliance on Social Security and "Whatever". Those two cleverly crafted words beginning with "S" have kept the lumpen from worrying very much about what the "Whatever" is going to be for them. Most people are able to keep only one thought in their heads at a time. And when it comes to finances, it is likely to be the same single thought: over and over and over.
Well, now they are going to have to get a different thought, and they are going to have to peer into the future and guess what their "Whatever" might be. And get cracking on it.
And the Boomers were so smart -- at the time -- to have fewer kids! Now, whole families can go down together, each generation clinging to the other. (Or, arguing over whose turn it is to do the dishes tonight...) Ah: Forever Young!
Hey -- I'd been thinking and looking up lately about retirement destinations in 3rd world (or are they now 2nd?) locations, like Mexico and Central America. But wait just a durned minute! With the essays we've seen this weekend, from Henry Liu and Richard Russell -- most of which we had covered here already -- maybe, just MAYBE, you won't need to go South to get cheap services at peon wages. You can just stick around here and wait for paychecks to shrink right in your own backyard!
If you're holding assets, rather than debt, might be a nice ride. (Though I think the people south of the border might have the friendlier smiles through it all ;)
The Invisible Hand (2/28/04; 18:05:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 117840)
The trouble with paper money - Promises, promises
http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2459841
SNIPS (last snip is long because I don't quite understand what is being written - anybody in a teaching mood?)
IS THE problem with the dollar only that it is falling?
+
Money in its present form is a relatively new invention. For most of human history money meant either gold or silver, either directly, or indirectly by means of the "gold standard" which meant, at least in theory, that all paper money was backed by gold.
+
Certainly, those promises have only been worth much in recent years. In the early years of fiat money, inflation took off, especially in America, in part because of the two oil shocks of the 1970s. This debased the value of the dollar, and the price of gold climbed from $35 an ounce to $850.
+
Those who doubt the continued worth of paper money as a store of value point to two things. The first is that the price of gold has been rising even though official inflation is low. From $253 an ounce in the late 1990s, gold now fetches just over $400 an ounce, and it rose as high as $430 an ounce earlier this year. It is not just the price of gold that has been rising: so, too, have the prices of precious and base metals. There may, of course, be many other reasons for these rises. China's rapidly expanding economy is gobbling up metals and other commodities for its factories. Moreover, the rise in the price of commodities also reflects the weakness in the dollar: these rises look much less impressive when quoted in euros or yen. But the rise in the price of gold in particular has raised questions.
The biggest of these—and the second main reason for concern—is the amount of debt that rich-country governments have been running up. America's official budget deficit has surged in the three years since George Bush became president, to around $520 billion and climbing. But this is just the shortfall this year. The government's total future liabilities are much larger. In fact, according to a forthcoming book by Laurence Kotlikoff, an economist, the present value of the American government's future obligations, taking into account promised pensions and health-care benefits, is a staggering $45 trillion. European governments are only slightly better at managing their budgets—witness the breaching of the single currency's growth and stability pact. Japan's attempts to coax its economy back to life have left it with a gross national debt of some 160% of GDP, the highest of any big country. No country has tried harder to debase its currency.
In theory, such debts would not be tolerated for long by investors, since the easy way out for central banks is to "monetise" them with inflation. Bond prices would fall (and thus yields rise) as investors worried that they would be paid back in a debased currency. But capital markets currently seem oblivious to spiralling debts. At some 4%, yields on ten-year American Treasury bonds are close to their lowest in two generations, although this is partly explained by huge purchases by Asian central banks. Yields elsewhere are also very low, nowhere more so than in Japan, where ten-year government-bond yields are now 1.3%.
The problem may be that bond investors, far from being far-sighted, are in fact myopic, and are perhaps being fooled by the temporary disinflationary effects of excess capacity and debts built up over the bubble years in both Japan and America. Perhaps, too, investors have been lulled into a false sense of security by the performance of central banks in recent years, and the independence that has been granted to many of them by governments. But this very aura of inviolability may be storing up problems, since it means that governments can borrow still more at cheap rates. And if governments then find themselves crushed by debt, you can rest assured that this independence will be taken away. And then, once again, the paper in your pocket will only be as good as a politician's promise.
==
Sorry, if has been posted before.
TownCrier (2/28/04; 17:46:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 117839)
Start here...
http://www.usagold.com/GoldTrail/archives/ANOTHER1.html
...finish here.
R.
Dollar Bill (2/28/04; 17:38:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 117838)
.,.
Glox, They did have a point! We have to have discretion as regular posters. Only too easy to wander off the Mine:)
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (2/28/04; 16:01:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 117837)
Hard assets, easy access!
http://www.usagold.com/buy-gold-coins.html
Goldendome (2/28/04; 13:06:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 117836)
Puplava's house party
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm
A nice Saturday discussion again today, over at Puplava's. The second hour, I thought, was particularily interesting as they discussed with a John Rubino about the possible dynamics of an expected downturn and shakeout in the real estate markets; and how that will eventually effect the national, and world financial markets. It was fun listening. I always enjoy a good story of doom and gloom. Helps to keep me from becomeing "irrationally exhuberent." If your computer talks but you don't have the real networks software, try the MP3 alternative icon, that's what I use to listen.
steady (2/28/04; 12:16:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 117835)
rest/stillnes/ silence gold naw>
goldie exactly very good. thats the point rested minds make better decision.
pulled probably ;+)
Goldilox (2/28/04; 10:14:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 117834)
Alpha state
@ Steady:
What I remeber of alpha-state is that it approaches Optimal rest state of the brain.
Oblivion - here we come?
steady (2/28/04; 09:30:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 117833)
apha brain wave generators!!!!!!
http://www.live365.com/cgi-bin/directory.cgi?first=1&searchfields=TAC&genre=new%20age
for when those golden decisond are to be made , optimal brain power guarenteed!
Goldilox (2/28/04; 08:49:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 117832)
News Commentary
@ Mikal,
That was the best laugh I've had all day! OK, it's only 7AM.
Thank you for reminding me how inane the entire media exercise is in such a simple, to-the-point delivery.
$ Bill: Be careful with all that Cu stuff. I got my head handed me on a plate for reporting Chile's CU profits!
Dollar Bill (2/28/04; 05:18:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 117831)
.,.
Looks like hyperinflation talk is already here.
"John Meyer, a metals analyst at Numis, offered advice to investors this week when he wrote: ***‘We recommend investors buy anything copper: you could go down to B&Q and buy copper pipes before the price goes up; or an air conditioner - most of it is copper piping; buy the new Toyota hybrid car - it uses twice as much copper as a conventional car, so its raw material price is going up. It's also environmentally friendly. ***But don't melt your copper coins yet – they're made of cupronickel so there's not much copper in there.’"
‘Inventories are dropping now at really a rapid pace,’ said Thomas Baack, a 20-year veteran of the copper business who is the chief statistician at the International Copper Study Group in Lisbon. ***‘The problem is if suddenly prices go up and people realize they might go up for a while, they might all scramble to cover their needs and suddenly all the available metal is gone."
New Orleans is home to the largest copper pile monitored by the London Metal Exchange,
Mario Casiano's three New Orleans warehouses will be gone by the end of this week, and the 38-year-old metals manager for Pacorini USA said remaining inventories at other storage depots in the city will disappear by August. Surging demand for wire, pipes and electronic parts already has emptied copper warehouses in Singapore, Barcelona and Hamburg.
Black Blade (2/28/04; 00:41:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 117830)
@Gresham
Oh my, yes it has been very busy lately and I have been out of town quite a bit. The energy situation appears to be gaining a lot of steam lately from increasing Third World demand and declining output to rising prices and calls for government investigations. Much of this has to do with government inaction to over regulation leaving us reliant on foreign sources not necessarily friendly to the west.
On a side note it appears that the NatGas storage will fall below the 1200 bcf level next week which is generally seen as troublesome with about 6+ more weeks of draws to come and Accuweather forecasts of a cold March. We could easily fall below 900 bcf of reserves which is considered nearing a critical level especially with declining domestic production, smaller finds, restricted government owned land access, LNG years away from being a significant contributor, fast rising prices for energy, etc.
Interesting times indeed. Cheers.
- Black Blade
mikal (2/28/04; 00:32:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 117829)
Latest Business Stories Update and Analysis
Bloomberg-Financial: Greenspan Calls Revaluation of Chinese Yuan a `Reasonable Expectation´ [Better than "unreasonable", but you can't be too specific lest the people REALLY know what to expect]
ABC News-Business-Wire: Greenspan Urges Intellect Property Safety [Don't you DARE subsidize hardhats with my tax dollars!]
ABC News-Business-Wire: Greenspan: Protect Intellectual Property [Why, I'm beginning to like Greenspeak, but isn't this going to be too little, too late? AU, get yu sum]
CBS Marketwatch: Oracle loses round in PeopleSoft case [What did the oracle say would happen if you weren't soft enough with people?]
CBS Marketwatch: EU to impose $4 bln in sanctions against U.S. [Every dog has his day]
ABC News-Business-Wire: Internet Lawsuit Could Have Global Effect [I should hope so, or maybe we could talk this over]
MSNBC-Business: Bush budget would worsen deficit [Yes, and 1 + 1 = 2]
SiliconValley.com: San Jose police say pimps are using the Internet to advertise services [They're finally cracking down on some of that spam]
USA Today- Money: Grasso keeps pay ["Hey Grasso, you wanna buy some uranium war souveneirs?]
CBS Marketwatch: North Carolina joins anti-Eisner movement [Good news comes in spurts]
Bloomberg- Financial: Martha Stewart Judge Dismisses Securities Fraud Count, Most Serious Charge [Now drop the rest of them or charge the REAL renegades]
USA Today- Money: VW steps up cost cutting [You guys are right in step with the fast-changing times- "Step aside while we salvage what we can of this basket case"]
USA Today- Money: Consumers gloomier [Not vor lung, vee hav ar vayz uv makeeng you buy!- The Council on Conspicuous Consumption and the Fed]
MSNBC- Business: U.S. economic growth revised up ["It all depends on what 'is' is"- Bill Clinton]
USA Today- Money: GDP revised up a bit Fri [We're shocked, tittilated, dizzy- Joe Sixpack and Suzie]
Goldilox (2/28/04; 00:25:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 117828)
Yen
Maybe the BOJ isn't completely crazy. Sure, the dollar is a rapidly devaluing asset, but they're buying it with complete toilet paper. Once they have have sponged up enough dollars, declare the Yen a loss, and credit internal depositors with equivalent dollars. Next best thing to statehood. Besids, at that point, they will own about 50% of US debentures.
Mr Gresham (2/28/04; 00:12:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 117827)
Black Blade
Welcome home; hope it's been profitable getting out to work (if you've been away, and not just me snoozing).
Peak oil is all over the Web. Parents are starting to tell their children bedtime stories about it.
Japan shows the folly of currency intervention. Why don't they just give 'em the yen (since they presumably want to live and spend money in Japan) and not go through the highly diffuse method of shifting relative currency valuations, most of which benefit goes to the consumers of goods from which exporters may carve out small profit? Oh well...
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
