Home Gold Primer Q&A Daily Market Report Gold IRA Gold Coin Prices Charts Stats Essays Site Overview High Net Worth How to Buy Gold Live Gold Price Breaking Gold News Mobile Gold Price Gold Coin Images About Us-Contact Search Video Round Tables

Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

FORUM ARCHIVES

Select date of the archive you wish to view Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Archives date back to September 22, 1998

WELCOME TO THE ARCHIVES!

ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 9/28/2003
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Gandalf the White (9/28/03; 23:24:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 109538)
HELLO Alberta Rose -- Questions !
(9/28/03; 21:39:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 109535)
you say:
"However, if the US and the Canadian dollar are at par and the US Silver Eagle has a face value of $1 and the Canadian Silver Maple has a face value of $5, does this mean that American Silver Eagles will be spent in Canada as they will have more buying power here? Lucky us, if all that silver flows north!"
===
Please correct me if I am incorrect ---- BUT, I do not think it is possible to "SPEND" an American Silver Eagle in Canada, other than at a coin shop !
Does coinage now have spending power ?
IT did not used to be possible !
<;-)


Goldendome (9/28/03; 23:12:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 109537)
Chinese indicate interest to buy BIG in the Gold market.
Gdome: Perhaps others have posted some news about the possible off-take by the Chinese of physical gold, but if they have any off-take like they indicate in some sample surveys, it could be quite significant. Read below.

Posted: 2003/09/26 Fri 17:00 EDT | © Mineweb 1997-2003


NEW YORK -- The Hong Kong edition of Friday's China Daily will be celebrated in gold bug circles after the Bank of China's bullion guru said local consumers could pour $36 billion into the metal, equivalent to around 2,950 tonnes, or more than one year of supply, at current prices.
Xi Jianhua, the Bank of China's gold business expert, is also quoted saying that it would be "safe and feasible" for China swap to some foreign exchange reserves for gold. The country has a little over 600 tonnes of gold in reserve now ($7.3-bn), and $360 billion in foreign exchange.

Xi also wants rapid deregulation of the retail gold market, the cornerstone of which is the Shanghai Gold Exchange. China currently consumes about 200 tonnes of gold a year, much of it met from local production.

Apparently, a recent national survey show that one fifth of respondents claimed to be willing to divert 10 to 30 per cent of their savings to gold. Consequently, Xi believes that private funds amounting to 300 billion yuan could be buying gold, in addition to what the Chinese Central Bank would buy.

The Central Bank purchase suggestion is especially bullish as uncertainty grows about the intentions of Washington Agreement banks regarding the renewal of their controlled gold sales.

Initial private demand in China is expected to be more modest at between 300-500 tonnes, but that would be a large fillip on top of expected demand for the World Gold Council's globally traded gold funds. Gold producers that have recently conducted investor road shows in North America report that hedge funds are especially interested in the imminent ETFs.

Xi said the purpose of purchasing gold would be equivalent to the Fed's market window, allowing China's central bank to take yuan out of circulation, reduce the surplus on the current account and diversify foreign exchange holdings, all with an eye on reducing calls for the yuan to appreciate.

At a Denver Gold Forum luncheon devoted to gold investment issues, Pierre Lassonde, president of Newmont, said Chinese gold demand could only grow with deregulation. "Current consumption is 0.2 grams per person per year. In India it is over 0.7 grams and grew from a level similar to the Chinese 11 years ago. Indian gold market deregulation grew demand from 200 to 900 tonnes, although it has slipped to 600 tonnes now," he said. "Imagine if China grows from 0.2 to 0.7 grams of gold per person? It will be the largest gold market in the world. It will happen, I can see it."

Andy Smith, Mitsui's precious metals analyst, worries that Chinese gold demand will not live up to high expectations, and that investors are likely to make money selling more mundane items to a burgeoning middle class that aspires to the accoutrements of progress.

That said a Central Bank official talking openly about manipulating the yuan via gold is a significant milestone that bears watching. If China does swap a meaningful amount of dollars into gold in the next few months, investors can take Xi rather more seriously than they might right now given the Bank's cultivated inscrutability.




Kilo (9/28/03; 21:49:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 109536)
21mabry msg#: 109532 = Silver Maple Leafs
When you consider the premiums involved on the silver Maples vs. 40% silver bags, and if you don't mind the added bulk, then 40% Kennedy halves probably offer the greatest "ground floor" protection, i.e. you can only lose a maximum of about 1/3 of your investment at current rates if silver fell to the point of making the halves worth their face value. You would also be dealing with U.S. currency rather than that of a different country (a preferable situation if a U.S. citizen). As with the other coins, you are also holding a decent silver play of approx. 295 troy ounces of silver per $1000 face value bag. But it's important to remember that, contrary to some of the sales pitches, it is an "either / or" proposition, and you cannot simultaneously take advantage of both silver content AND face value.....

Alberta Rose (9/28/03; 21:39:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 109535)
RE: Gold Maple Leafs
Our Canadian dollar seems to be climbing relative to the US dollar. I can see a day in the not-to-distant future when they will be at par. I do not understand this trend as our government seems to give away (sell) more of our gold reserves every couple of months.

However, if the US and the Canadian dollar are at par and the US Silver Eagle has a face value of $1 and the Canadian Silver Maple has a face value of $5, does this mean that American Silver Eagles will be spent in Canada as they will have more buying power here? Lucky us, if all that silver flows north!

Black Blade (9/28/03; 21:30:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 109534)
Synthetic vs. Natural Diamonds

I ha thought of bringing up this issue is the past but had never got around to it. The new synthetic diamonds (one manufactured through General Electric and there are two other producers now) are indistinguishable from natural diamonds other than the synthetics are or can be flawless. They are also about half the price of natural diamonds even for large karat gem quality stones. This led to another nail in the coffin for DeBeers.

A recent article in Forbes describes a former DeBeers "sight buyer" who left DeBeers to go it alone. He made inroads in the Russian political establishments over the years and was able to sell off the Russian hoard of diamonds for in the 1990's. He also contracted mining operations inside and outside of Russia (particularly in Angola and the Congo). It short he busted the cartel. This came at a time when Australia's Argyle diamond mine left the DeBeers cartel to sell their "pink diamonds" outside of the DeBeers fold. The article can be found in on of the recent Forbes magazines within the last two or three months.

Actually the beginning of the end of the DeBeers strangle hold came with the diamond rush in Canada when outsiders (including Kennacot – now RTZ) began to mine diamonds. Now DeBeers has begun to sell "branded" diamonds that have been lasered with a serial number and there are plans to sell diamonds in specialty retail outlets. The competitors are planning or are by now doing the same thing. The point is the price of diamonds (even gem quality) are falling fast. The endgame is near for DeBeers as synthetics, though still costly are likely to put an end to the grossly overpriced diamond trade.

If you are considering by gem diamonds then save your money and get the new synthetics instead. They are essentially flawless and nearly indistinguishable from natural stones. Get twice the rock for the same price. In fact colored some semi-precious stones may soon surpass the price of diamonds. Gemstones are not an investment as are precious metals.

- Black Blade


Remarx (9/28/03; 21:20:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 109533)
@21mabry: Me Too!
I am also interested in what folks think of 21mabry's question. It does seem to make more sense to buy the Maple Leafs.

21mabry (9/28/03; 20:59:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 109532)
maple leafs
IMHO, silver maple leafs offer the best protection in silver.In theory silver eagles could drop to 1 U.S.D.Junk U.S silver bags could fall to 1000 U.S.D.The silver maple can not drop below 5 dollars Canadian.You have the inflationary protection of silver plus the deflationary protection of 5 dollars Canadian.Any thoughts 21

Waverider (9/28/03; 20:50:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 109531)
Is The Dollar Toast?
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/wallenwein/2003/0925.html
"Yes. The only remaining question is: how dark would you like it? The Europeans would like it to be a light, golden crisp. The more fanatical of our Arab and Muslim friends probably want it to be incinerated. The Chinese would likely prefer it pretty dark, but with visible, charred remains, so they can still show it off - like a trophy..."

Max Rabbitz (9/28/03; 20:43:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 109530)
Lary Parks on our Monetary Crisis
http://www.fame.org/HTM/Parks%20interview%20Puplava%2011-4-02%20Financial%20Sense.htm
The previous interview I spoke of is from November 6th 2002,not 1992, and a transcript is also available for those without audio.

Time for bed.


Max Rabbitz (9/28/03; 20:37:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 109529)
Our Dishonest Monetary System
http://www.fame.org/
There is a good audio (1hr) found in the first sentence of the above web site. It is a November 1992 interview by Jim Puplava. One of his best. If you think you have been lied to by the establishment this might explain why.



Waverider (9/28/03; 20:10:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 109528)
Test
New computer.

Dollar Bill (9/28/03; 19:09:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 109527)
*>*.........+
Sir Misetich, Thanks for that link today.
A small part quoted here.
"Perhaps no bank epitomises this rise and fall so well as LTCB. On March 2 2000, an incident took place in that very building that some Japanese might consider a humiliating symbol of their weakness. Three tall Americans walked into the staff canteen on the eighth floor and tried to order lunch.

The Japanese staff could barely believe what they were seeing. Japanese companies have traditionally been homogenous places, and a strict separation is maintained between "insiders" and "outsiders". Visitors are shepherded away from the "private" eating space to special "guest" rooms. Not only were there now foreigners in their midst, but they looked utterly alien. One was Vernon Jordan, who is black and at 6ft 5in tall towered over the Japanese around him. Another was David Fite, an American banker who was equally tall. The third was Tim Collins, the Kentucky-born financier and founder of Ripplewood, a Wall Street buy-out group. "I guess the new invaders have arrived," one of the Japanese bankers thought to himself.

The Americans felt almost as disconcerted. They were there as representatives of a consortium that had just bought the bank. The deal was controversial - nothing like this had been done before in Japan. However, the three men hoped that by popping into the staff canteen they might be able to greet some of the bank's staff. "We wanted to say 'hi' - show we haven't got horns," Collins said later.

As they looked around they saw that in Japan bankers sit in neat, quiet rows, in a clear pattern. At some of the tables there were just women, wearing matching uniforms; at others there were only men in dark blue suits. This was not segregation by sex but by status: the women, so-called "office ladies", all held the lowliest clerical jobs, so they tended to sit together.

"I have seen segregation before," Jordan, a political activist and close friend of former US president Bill Clinton, later recalled. "I'm from the American South - I grew up with segregation. But when I looked at that canteen, it was like a whole new type of divide... it was like nothing I'd seen before."

Jordan looked for somewhere to sit down. He could tell that some form of hierarchy was at work in the room, but it ran against his instincts. He had spent his whole life fighting segregation. "I am a free man! I am a man of the people!" he liked to declare. So he chose the first seat that grabbed his egalitarian fancy - right in the middle of the youngest and most junior office ladies - and with a big grin tried to strike up a conversation with the tiny women around him, using his best American "meet and greet" skills.

The women froze in shock: they would have been scarcely less startled had Godzilla arrived for lunch. Eventually the Americans gave up. But as they quietly ate their lunch, watched by a sea of silent eyes, they discreetly peeped around them and tried to guess what the Japanese were thinking. The most bizarre experiment involving Wall Street and Japan had just got under way."



Druid (9/28/03; 18:53:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 109526)
Focus: China's gold rush
http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-09/25/content_267390.htm
Snippet

Prominent gold experts and officials are urrging the government to lift the ban on individual trading in the precious metal as soon as possible, as quoted prices at the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) continually hit record highs this month amid a surge in buying enthusiasm.

Druid: Pretty good read.

Rimh (9/28/03; 15:16:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 109525)
Thanks for volatility article, contrarian!
While most here are getting used to these pullbacks, it's good to have some stats to back up what our gut is telling us....that this time it really is different and the trend is still up!

Also, to Gandalf, I'm glad to see the P&F chart is still intact. What does P&F stand for??

On diamonds, I believe the marketing job is what keeps their value up, but if we are entering a gold bull market anyway, many people will want to acquire gold in jewelry form, so diamonds will still benefit. Are they still as valuable as gold or retain their value like gold? That all depends on the market (you know, that supply and demand thing). If the masses have to start selling jewelry to eat and there is suddenly a glut of them for sale on the used market and little demand for new ones, what would happen to the price? It's not likely that the Central Banks will start buying up and holding diamond as a store of wealth.

Gold is still the best store of real wealth.

Rimh

R Powell (9/28/03; 14:55:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 109524)
Phil288 // Puplava's silver thoughts
Thanks for the summary.
It's reassuring to hear what I think stated by others with more resourses, contacts and time to investigate.

The question of China's selling silver is a big one (imho). The Chinese economy is growing at a tremendous rate. If this growth is reflected in a better standard of living for the general population then copper demand for building (housing) and electric transmittion purposes will explode. This is reportedly happening now. They are reportedly gearing up copper production which will increase their by-product production of silver. The question becomes whether their industrial demand for silver will consume all of this new production and when. When will their needs exceed their production. More disposable income for the Chinese will also increase silver use for domestic products as well as exports.

Many analysts still adhere to the theory that digital cameras will kill silver demand. Phil Gotthelf and William Frejilich have been continually calling (for years) for sub $4.00/ounce prices solely because they believe digital will completely remove all demand for silver based film. Perhaps a time will come when most everyone possesses a film camera and, if so, at that point in time then those changing to digital will decrease the demand for film. Right now, there are probably more new potential users of film cameras (worldwide) than there are converts switching from film to digital. Time will tell. If recycling cuts actual silver demand to only 60 million ounces/year, then maybe the film question will eventually prove to be not all that important after all. Any thoughts?
Thanks again,
Rich

R Powell (9/28/03; 14:16:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 109523)
Max
Thanks for the response. I'm happy to hear you survived the storm with only inconvience. This last price guessing contest was the first I can recall where the majority of the guesses were below the winning one. Maybe this is a good omen.
Rich

phil288 (9/28/03; 14:11:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 109522)
R. Powell / Puplava Info.
Sorry for the delay in responding. I will attempt to outline the discussion. Actually there were several silver discussions. First was with David Morgan, editor of the Silver Investor, which included an overall review of the current state of the precious metals market. Discussed recent net increase in open interest for the shorts but an expected decline of same next week due to the price break and covering. The key reversal in metals on Thursday was "Nothing to get excited about". "XAU should test 85". Morgan sees China good for supply for possibly 2 years more, but fundamental shift may be developing in their thinking and this long term seller may well soon turn into a buyer, and sees no supply at all coming from India.

400 million ounces reported in overall inventories are actually only about 40 million, 10 in London and 30 or so in Zurich. Buffets supply in London is still there, but unavailable until he sells which could be a long time and at much higher prices. Puplava basicaly buys the GATA message and its implications for the shorts, both in gold and silver.

In addressing the EK announcement from this past week, both commentators feel the whole digital camera issue is grossly overblown. For various reasons, true net take from silver supplies is about 60 million ounces per year for conventional film, not even up to the current deficit. New uses coming include "biocides", "super conductors" and "monetary uses" are going to be way more important that this paltry amount. Shorts are working overtime trying to knock down the price. Any increase in physical demand from any source will lead to price rises which could be dramatic. Short positions in silver stocks rose a lot in the past month, up 95% for CDE and 64% for PAAS. Sooner or later silver price to go up. Puplava's group is considering a fund to buy silver bullion and or silver stocks.

He compared the present situation in silver to the DOW situation in 1982. "The moment in time for silver is now". "There is a train wreck coming in both metals." There is no where near enough supply to replace production to say nothing of the shorts.

In the final few minutes of the first hour, Jim related a several hour meeting he recently had with a Chief Officer, unnamed, of a major silver producer. They discussed the fact that "Everyone is looking for acquisitions". Can't recycle enough silver to equal demand at current prices, no large deposits left. Prediction: "Silver will rise to $10.00 in 12 to 18 months. Supply demand train wreck coming. "If you want silver, buy it now, and take delivery." Phil's comment "Our host is as good a place as any to do this and much better than most".

Max Rabbitz (9/28/03; 13:50:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 109521)
Diamonds are Forever?
Diamonds are like paper....they burn in a fire because they are only made of carbon.

Try to resell your diamonds and see if they bring even half the price you paid for them. DeBeers marketing slogan was intended to keep diamond owners from reselling and glutting the market. The ad campaign was/is brilliant but it works better with gold.

"Gold is Forever"










contrarian (9/28/03; 13:48:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 109520)
gandalf the white--diamonds as store of value?
http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/82feb/8202diamond1.htm
have you ever tried to sell a diamond?

Certainly, due to public relation machinations of Debeers for the last 60 or 70 years, we all think diamonds are "valuable".

Diamonds are in fact, quite common in the earth's crust...unlike gold.

Only a cartel could restrict their availability and consequently artificially pump up prices.

Please read above link for excellent picture of the reality of the situation.

Maybe if you're a diamond dealer, you can hope to make money in diamonds, but I can't imagine diamonds as a store of value for the ordinary person...it's just the Hollywood and DeBeers publicity machine.

Max Rabbitz (9/28/03; 13:40:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 109519)
Hello Rich
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm
I just got my power back from Isabelle a day ago and have been trying to catch up. Dang....missed my chance at the gold contest by waiting too long and lost my connection.

Jim Puplava, as is often the case, made a case for silver. He made me want to buy some more. At the end he commented that he had doubts much Indian Jewelry would come onto the market at $10 to $15 per ounce. "But first to $10, within 12-18 months."

He started by saying the large gold mining companies are not finding the large deposits to replace reserves. Currently there are in the discovey/feasibiliy stage only 10 deposits with 5 million ounces of reserves (gold) and only 4 with 10 million ounces. The big companies are replacing reserves by buying smaller companies. A train wreck is coming in supply and demand. According to a Silver company executive, the situation is even worse with silver. Silver is consumed and not easy to recycle. Not enough in a computer to bother with. There are no large supplies of silver left. Comex has only about 40 million ounces. Indian jewelry not likely to be brought to market.....and $10 not likely to do much.

A few of his other points:

1) Photography - Most of the recycled silver (190M oz) comes from photography use (250M oz) and this will drop if photography use drops.

2) Permanent records for medical x-rays can not be altered as digital can be. Printed digital does not last.

3) If you want to buy silver, buy it now. Take delivery.

P.S. Isabelle was a great chance to test Black Blade's advise regarding survival. It worked! I was comfortable, safe and able to help others when the water supply went down and the stores closed. A generator would have been nice, but 30 were reported stolen from the Richmond area. I guess this is where shotguns come in handy.

GratefulForGold (9/28/03; 13:07:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 109518)
Diamonds or Gold??? Sir Gandalf @ msg. #109508
My dear Gandalf,

I've oft wondered if DeBeers bribed the songwriter to pen "Diamonds are a girl's best friend."

While admitting that I enjoy a diamond (I own only one, my grandmother's), I have never appreciated what the "fuss" was all about!

However, it took me a mere instant to recognize and deeply appreciate the beauty of gold, especially the weight and wonder of a magnificient gold coin!

Since I am not "all" ladies -- and perhaps one of the more strange, er, unique varieties -- I chance to cast my vote!

Her voice rang loud and clearly resonant -- "Let it be GOLD!" (And his wondrous sister, SILVER)!!

Lady GFG


Kilo (9/28/03; 13:06:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 109517)
Gandalf - RE: Diamonds
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.09/diamond.html
You wrote: >>>>what if SYNTHETIC diamonds were to be PERFECTED and that it was almost impossible to differentiate between the two types ?"<<<<<

It is my understanding that both gem yellow and clear synthetic diamonds are already in production, in sizes up to 2 or 3 carats each. At least two Florida based concerns are producing, cutting, and marketing synthetic diamonds via two different processes, one of which is said to actually "grow" the stones in such a manner that they are indistinguishable from natural stones, except for their relative perfection compared to natural crystals. These are actual carbon-based diamonds, not the lesser synthetics such as Moissonite, cubic zirconia, Yag, etc., although dollar for dollar and by side to side comparisons, even the Moissonite stones are superior in brilliance to most natural diamonds and have a higher refractive index.

It seems that as more and more substitutes are introduced into the market, the demand for natural diamond decreases accordingly. As most involved to any extent in the jewelry market will tell you, the "diamond market" has been controlled, fixed, manipulated, and misrepresented for many years due mostly to the DeBeers cartel.

See the link above for information on "The New Diamond Age", and be sure to read it in it's entirety (6 pages). Excellent information and links to synthetic diamond manufacturing.

Kilo

Andúril (9/28/03; 13:05:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 109516)
People buying silver instead because gold is "too expensive"?
Is this the logic of people who rather carry the 30 kilo bag of feathers because the 30 kilo pot of tar is too heavy?

Their $30 of silver is more affordable than $30 of gold???

Wealth is meaningful on the atomic level. More ounces means less if the substance is wrong.

R Powell (9/28/03; 12:33:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 109515)
Repeated request
The following is from yesterday. I'm reposting in the hopes that someone will see it who can relay some information. TIA

Phil 288 // Puplava's silver opinion
My computer does not speak. I wish it could and many others that I have to listen to couldn't, but it does not. Could you give us the highlights of what Jim Puplava had to say that led him to predict $10.00 silver within a year? Was he talking with other analysts? Of all the markets that I'm aware of, silver has the fewest followers with anything to say, probably because silver is such a small, obscure and overlooked market with very little in the category of new developments

CoinGuy, thanks for the suggestion but my computer does not burn CDs.
Mr. Gresham, if physical metal accumulation is what you've decided on for a retirement fund and, if gold becomes too expensive to accumulate, then..... I guess we're both looking at the same problem. Perhaps another metal has the same 30%/year value increase that we're looking for?
Happy Sunday
Rich

R Powell (9/28/03; 12:03:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 109514)
Gandalf
One of the many intangible factors, other than supply and demand, that can change the value (usually dollar denominated) of any commodity is the potential substitution of a cheaper or more plentiful item that will meet the qualities necessary for whatever use is intended. Thus, if fish are plentiful, and soybeans are expensive, the fish will serve the need for protein in animal feed. Sometimes the price of soybeans depends partly upon the sea surface temperature in the Pacific which, in turn, affects the fishing. (El Nino or La Nina)

Sometimes technology can change the value of a commodity, another form of substitution. I believe you are right for thinking that, if there are no appreciable differences between real and manufactured diamonds, and, given that artificial production is a whole lot cheaper, then yes, the value of diamonds will fall.

Now, knowing the Wizard as I do, and his love of gold, I'll agree that gold can not be artificially produced although many have tried throughout the ages. A fancy word for use that can not be substituted with another item is inelastic use. There is only one metal that is gold and there is only so much of it on this planet.

I often think of the uses for another metal and the possibility of substituting something else for it. However the unique properties of silver have, as yet, not been found in any other metal, either naturally occuring or somehow manufactured by man.

If I had to choose between diamonds and gold, I'd choose the gold. If I had to choose between gold and silver, I'd choose both. Because gold is already expensive for my budget, my physical metal collection is silver.

Thanks for keeping an eye on those Xs and Os for us.
Rich

Gandalf the White (9/28/03; 11:02:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 109513)
Attention CB2 and Rich !! LOOK at the magical REVISION !!!!
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=$GOLD,P
GONE are the Three RED "O"'s !!!! Data was revised to a low of $380.1 and therefore the reverse did not happen on Friday ! IS NOT MAGIC wonderful ?
SOOOO, we must await Monday to see if the low breaks the $380. level on the downside to have the RED "O"'s reappear!
<;-)


Gandalf the White (9/28/03; 10:55:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 109512)
Sir Cockerel1's Question ---
cockerel1 (9/28/03; 10:40:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 109509)
===
I have been speaking to others in the GREAT WHITE NORTH that have had the same thoughts !!! THAT is a BIG DECISION !!!
Thankful that I do not have to make that decision as I do not know the ANSWER ! Perhaps BOTH ?


misetich (9/28/03; 10:54:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 109511)
Fisher Takes Long - Term Economic View (Fisher oka as the "alleged fixer"
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-economy-treasury-fisher.html
Snip:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Peter Fisher, the U.S. Treasury Department's fiscal guru, is unapologetic about finding a way to finance what is expected to be the biggest annual flood of government red ink in history. In fact, he's proud.

``Why would I take offense? We've managed the biggest swing in borrowing in the history of the Republic and done a pretty good job of it. That's one of my proudest accomplishments,''
..................
In October, the Bush administration is set to announce a record-breaking number for the annual shortfall between what the government took in in taxes and fees and what it spent.

That number will likely be close to $400 billion, well above the previous record of $290 billion in 1992 and a sharp turnaround from a surplus of $236 billion in 2000. The Bush administration says, as a proportion to the size of the economy, the deficits are not as alarming as they look.

Asked to explain the shortfall to a typical ``man on the street,'' Fisher said, ``If you look at it in the short run, 34, 35 percent marketable debt-to-(gross domestic product) is a middle-of-the-road number for an industrial country. I admit the man on the street may not be very interested in that..''
.................
``Investment is about relative confidence in the future. It's always about that,'' he said
**************
Misetich

Middle of the road? Statistically maybe if one accepts the over inflated GDP being reported (over inflated via hedonics)

Interesting take, from Fisher, Grasso who compliment themeselves on the handling of 9/11 - as if it was over

An event such as 9/11 is only the beginning - chain reaction - from quick fixes to hiding the real truth to having to implement "homeland security" programs, Iraq invasion etc have not post-poned the ultimate shock effect caused by 9/11

As events continually unfold, the crisis only deepens as none of the pre 9/11 financial misalignments have been rectified - to the contrary - it has worsened as the risk factor going forward have increased exponentially as more debt, derivative use has/is being added on

Alleged fixers such as Fisher, Rubin timely chose their exits - Egomaniacs such as Greenspan choses to "gamble" and stay on

Time will tell Mr. Fisher - whether the management of "biggest swing in borrowing in the history of the Republic" is over

Is it over yet? or has just started to accelerate.

All On Board The Gold Bull Express







Gandalf the White (9/28/03; 10:47:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 109510)
Mr, G's request for "Help with unit of valuation?"
Mr Gresham (9/28/03; 09:47:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 109506)
===
Synthetic diamonds ?
NAW -- Go for the YELLOW !
<;-)

cockerel1 (9/28/03; 10:40:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 109509)
Mr Gresham - msg#: 109506
I was sitting here musing almost the same thing. Planning for my future and taking stock, as it were.

A nagging item keeps rearing its ugly head and I was hoping for some guidance.

Where better to turn than this Mighty Oaken Table.

My problem: Why am I depending on my Registered Fund as a safe haven for my later years? If we are all so sure that the present financial system cannot survive, and that gold and silver will be the only safe havens, the fiat value (less applicable taxes) could be used to purchase the metals, thus providing that required security.Or are we all still hoping for the present system will be manipulated to provide that security?

Help!





Gandalf the White (9/28/03; 10:40:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 109508)
Questions on a slow Sunday morning ! <;-)
I have been contacted by my former mining exploration partner, (far younger that the Ol'e Wiz) with some information that I could not believe. I replied to him and ask if he possibly could be "smoking something" ?
He was irate that I would not believe him and proceeded to send me a great volume of data as proof. SOOOO, more questions I am asking of the Forum !!

I all my years, I understood that two things have been considered the best stores of wealth. DIAMONDS and GOLD !!
(I understood that this was based on "rarity" and desirability !) Ask ANY woman which of the two she would like and I think she would most likely take the diamond FIRST !

DeBeers has done a FANTASTIC marketing and RESTRICTED RELEASE of gemstone diamonds for years. BUT, what if SYNTHETIC diamonds were to be PERFECTED and that it was almost impossible to differentiate between the two types ? AND, the cost of MAKING, say up to a three carat colored or clear diamond, is only a very small fraction of the market price. Would that cause some people that presently have diamonds as "wealth insurance", to start to move that insurance to Physical GOLD ?

Well, the retail market price of one carat and larger diamonds appears to have been falling in the last twenty years. Is that because of more market release by DeBeers, or some other cause ? Will Synthetic Diamonds break DeBeers ? Is DeBeers worried ? Should we worry about our next diamond purchase being a synthetic ? Should my former exploration partner stop looking for diamonds and concentrate on GOLD ?

OK, all you readers, let me hear the ANSWERS !

PS: all Ladies need not reply as I already know your answers.
<;-)


misetich (9/28/03; 10:01:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 109507)
Guess who's coming to dinner? - US and Japan joint on the hips
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1059480107026&p=1012571727088
Snip:

One was Vernon Jordan, .............. Another was David Fite, an American banker ....... The third was Tim Collins, the Kentucky-born financier and founder of Ripplewood, a Wall Street buy-out group. "I guess the new invaders have arrived," one of the Japanese bankers thought to himself.
..................

Can Japan do it again? If the Americans who "invaded" the LTCB canteen back in the spring of 2000 are to be believed, this is precisely what is going on in the bank's gleaming glass and steel Tokyo headquarters. For when this Wall Street consortium acquired the bank, they set in motion not just an intriguing commercial gamble but also a deliberate experiment in cross-cultural rejuvenation. Specifically, the Wall Street bankers have been setting out to import "foreign" ideas into a financial citadel of Japan hitherto discreetly protected from the outside world.
.................
But against the odds, Ripplewood won the day, aided by a combination of deft political lobbying and a star-studded team of American and Japanese advisers and investors. These included Jordan and Paul Volcker, former chairman of the Federal Reserve. The finance came from blue chip investors, including GE Capital, Citigroup, AIG and Mellon, together with Europeans such as Deutsche Bank, UBS Paine Webber and Jacob Rothschild. The final price tag for the bank was $1.2bn. By Japanese standards, that made it a record buy-out deal. But given that the bank had about $100bn in assets, to many Japanese it seemed a snip.
...............
"If Japan doesn't change," Yashiro warns, "if we just keep muddling through, we will keep declining as a nation. We will end up being just an eastern province of China in 15 years."
*********************
Misetich

Japan is fearful of China's growth - easy prey for US to exploit those fears
No wonder Japan has been buying those US T-bills - but so has China

Where has China invested those reported $341 billions of US $? -
With rising trade ongoing surpluses China will amass further US $

China enjoys tremendous financial leverage on the US and it wouldn't surprise if they're able to extort "favors" from obliging US interests

Japan is fighting a losing war - as China is making tremendous economic strides - though still 10-15 years to really rival the US in both military and financial might

Will China continue to accumulate depreciating US $?

All On Board The Gold Bull Express








Mr Gresham (9/28/03; 09:47:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 109506)
Help with unit of valuation?
I was thinking yesterday about adopting a new 7-year financial goal, something like growing my net worth by a certain percentage per year. (30% was what was coming up for some sort of reasonable retirement. Yikes! But, nevermind...)

But today I find myself wondering what unit of measurement to denominate my progress (if any) in. If I adopt dollars, why that could be too easy, if the Fed inflates the h--- out of 'em.

And, gold. That could be too hard, if the yellow precious goes to 3000 or so. Probably wouldn't be earning enough to buy many more of 'em at that price.

So, now I'm driving off for the morning thinking about: Cans of tuna fish. (And I don't mean actual _physical_ cans of tuna, either. Haha, sorry FOA.)

Anyone with me on this?

contrarian (9/28/03; 06:09:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 109505)
Inherent Volatility of Gold--Get Used to It!!!
http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/Pfv1.cfm?pfvID=3246&SearchParam=i've%20been%20noticing
This is a valuable snippet I found on www.lemetropolecafe. Sorry if link doesn't work, but here's crux of the article. Basically says, in a gold bull market, you can expect that at least 2 days out of 5, the price will go down!

Here it is:
Lessons from Past Markets

(or How a Full-Grown Bull Sneaks Up on You)

By Derek K. Van Artsdalen

vanartsdalen@hotmail.com



I've been noticing on many of the message boards for the mining companies I follow that folks tend to get nervous when the price of gold pulls back. They begin wondering if they should sell their mining stocks and take their profits. They ask questions like, "Is the bull run over for gold?" and other such nonsense.

Just out of curiosity, I went back to the data from the greatest bull market in gold in modern history (the Big One from mid-1977 to January 1980) and did a study of the day-to-day change in the London PM fix price for gold. Here's what I found:

Out of a total of about 655 trading days from the low in mid-'77 to the peak in January '80, there were 370 trading days in which the London PM fix was higher than the previous day's fix and there were 285 trading days in which the fix price was lower than the previous day's fix. In other words, even during the greatest modern-day bull market gold has ever experienced, nearly 44% of the time, it was trading lower from the previous day's fix price. That's about two trading days every week that traders witnessed a lowering of the price of an ounce of gold from the previous day's action.

Additionally, there were five months during that 31-month run-up in which the average price of gold was actually lower than the previous month's average. No doubt people were wondering at that time, "Is the bull market over?". Even as late as August 23, 1979 the price of gold was only $310.05. But only about 20 weeks later, the price of gold had skyrocketed to its peak of about $875 per ounce -- a 180% increase in fewer than 5 months.

Think how tempting it would have been to sell out when gold hit, say, $400 (keep in mind that at the beginning of that bull run, the price was a measly $137.50), only to watch with regret and frustration as it continued exploding upward past $500, past $600, past $700, and, finally, past $800 per ounce!!!

The lesson is this: it is in the latter stages of bull markets where most of the money is made, and we're only in the early stages of this one.

I found it interesting that on May 15th, 1979 the price of gold was set at about $256 per ounce. The price had risen about 86% from its mid-'77 low. Not bad, of course, but not exactly the stuff of goldbugs' dreams, right? However, by the end of the year, a mere 7 and 1/2 months later, the price of gold had doubled to $512. Then, within about three weeks of that, the price shot up an additional 70% to its peak of about $875.

The point is, even in the best of bull markets, nearly half the trading days will be "down" days.

In addition to folks who follow the gold market complaining about the number of days gold is "down," I also hear many naysayers on the message boards proclaiming, essentially, that "gold hasn't been able to break into new highs." Or, "the last high is now creating impenetrable 'resistance' " -- that sort of thing.

Being the skeptical type, I went back once again and examined the data from the greatest modern-day bull market gold has experienced and I counted the number of days when gold was not only up but also made a new high. This time, just to give the whiners and pessimists a fighting chance, I went back to the very beginning of the Big One (which culminated at $875 in January 1980). That bull actually had its earliest roots after the low of $103.50 on August 25, 1976. I started there figuring that, after the extreme bottom of the cycle, there certainly would have been a larger percentage of days when gold set new highs.

Counting forward from August 26, 1976 (the day after the lowest low) to the very top of the cycle nearly 3 and 1/2 years later on January 21, 1980, there were about 744 trading days. Care to guess how many trading days out of each 100 gold was able to set a new high? You may be surprised at the answer: a mere 20.

That's right: in the most power-packed bull run ever witnessed in the gold market, gold managed new highs only 20 days out of each 100. And that was, as far as we know, without having to contend with the Cabalistic antics we "moderns" have suffered.

This fact shocked me. To illustrate with one quick example from those days: gold set a new high for the move on November 15, 1976 at $138.85 per ounce (all prices using the London PM fix). From that day, gold traded lower the remainder of the year and for more than three months total, failing to reach a new high until it hit $139.15 on February 23, 1977.

This brings to mind a favorite saying of one of the world-class traders of all-time, Jesse Livermore, who used to confidently proclaim: "It was never my thinking that made me money, but my sitting tight… Be right; sit tight!"

In the investment game, as in most other walks of life, patience prospers...






Copyright 1999, 2002 Le Metropole Cafe. All rights reserved.

silvercollector (9/28/03; 06:02:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 109504)
Thanks Cavan Man for John Embry's 15 fundamentals....that is awesome.
http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-09/25/content_267390.htm
Above is THE article (once again) on the potential of the Chinese market and what the heck, here's 15 references to it. Hang onto your seats:

1).....as quoted prices at the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) continually hit record highs this month amid a surge in buying enthusiasm.


2)The introduction of individual traders, they say, would kill four birds with one stone, by invigorating flagging consumption, slashing the foreign trade surplus, trimming conspicuous foreign exchange reserves and easing international pressures on China to appreciate its currency.

3)About 20 per cent of respondents to a recent national survey said they were willing to spend 10 to 30 per cent of their savings in gold investment, indicating a huge potential demand for gold.

4)....as much as 300 billion yuan (US$36.15 billion) in private money could flow into the gold market.

The money would create demand for about 3,000 tons of gold, he said. (...did he say 3,000!!!!)

5).....China currently has just 600 tons of gold reserves at its disposal, far from enough to cope with the potential gold rush.

6)....the country's US$356.5 billion worth of foreign exchange reserves at the end of July could cater for the demand with ease.


7)Using the reserves to purchase foreign gold would not only help withdraw billions of yuan now in circulation, but also boost the overall national import volume, Xi said, and thus "ease pressures on the appreciation of the yuan".


8)....the best way would be to allow commercial banks to start individual gold investment services at the earliest possible date.


9)The time is now perfect for the government to make the move, say analysts, citing potential room for further hikes in gold prices, both in the domestic and international markets.

10)Analysts note that trade at the Shanghai Gold Exchange, dominated by Au99.95 in the beginning, is now marked by heavy transactions in Au99.99. (note "heavy")

11)As the world's third largest gold consumer and fourth largest gold producer, China is suffering from a long-term shortage of gold, said Li Xisheng.

The country's annual consumption is about 200 tons, while its production equals roughly 180 tons a year.

(...initially demand would be 300-500!!)

12)The market value should grow 10 times in 10 years, Chu said.

13).....the demand for gold for industrial use will also increase rapidly as China becomes the world's manufacturing centre

14)....the potential for individual investment in gold as an option to currencies to maintain private wealth is almost unlimited. (..unlimited!!!!)

15)The introduction of individual traders in the gold market will, according to gold experts and officials:

-- invigorate flagging consumption;

-- slash the foreign trade surplus;

-- trim conspicuous foreign exchange reserves;

-- ease international pressures on China to appreciate its currency.

As much as 300 billion yuan (US$36.15 billion) in private money is estimated to flow into the gold market, creating demand for about 3,000 tons of gold.

A market demand for 300 to 500 tons of gold will be created by individual traders in the initial stages.

...........................................................

Hate to say it but if one has been following the fundamentals (ie: Embry's remarks) and has a glance at the potential of China (and other countries) one would be near 'brain-dead' not to own gold.

When (soon), not if, the dollar swoons (free-falls) and adjusts to the level that it deserves (emphasis on deserves) gold will hit 4 digits, IMVHO. The high hit a generation ago will be beaten up, taken back to the woodshed and shot!

The price of gold, in the next decade could (should) get seriously bizarre. Hold on the the ride of a lifetime.

Have a golden day!


The Invisible Hand (9/28/03; 04:07:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 109503)
California with honest money? Next month already?
http://clementsforgovernor.com/issues.html

Specific Examples of How Clements Will Fix California
SNIP
ECONOMY: I will cut taxes and regulations across the board with the goal of completely eliminating as many taxes and regulations as possible. I also want to stop the government from interfering in markets and industries which only leads to disaster. These changes will allow struggling companies to hire more people and grow their business. It will make it easier for people to start their own business and make a profit.


http://www.libertarian.to/NewsDta/templates/news1.php?art=art400
SNIP
I have decided to run as a candidate for Governor on a pure Objectivist platform. I advocate the complete transformation of our state from a centrally controlled welfare state to a minimalist government. If Poland and Russia can escape socialism why can't California?
...
I will draw on the support of millions of fans of philosopher Ayn Rand nationwide to help my campaign make history.

==
Was it not in Ayn Rand's The Objectivist newsletter that Alan Greenspan published his gold rhetoric?



ViewYesterday's Discussion.

Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.

Wednesday February 8
website support: sitemaster@usagold.com
Site Map - Privacy- Disclaimer
The USAGOLD logo and stylized gold coin pile are trademarks of Michael J. Kosares.
© 1997-2012 Michael J. Kosares / USAGOLD All Rights Reserved