ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 3/28/2003
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
mikal
(03/28/03; 23:32:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 100521)
Radiation detectors not healthy for world consumer and corporate confidence
http://www.reuters.com
US Firefighters Need 'Dirty Bomb' Detectors: Experts
Fri March 28, 2003 05:23 PM ET
By Stephanie Riesenman -Excerpt:
NEW YORK (Reuters Health) -
"Because there is no unique "signature" for an event involving a dirty bomb, Greenberg said any fire or explosion must be considered suspect. Taking environmental measurements at routine fires and explosions is easy enough, he says, and "there is no reason not to make it public policy."
A 'dirty bomb' is a conventional explosive with radiological material either attached to or close to the explosive source designed to disperse radiation into the air. People exposed to the radiation may not get sick immediately, but could be at risk for long-term health effects including bone marrow disease and various forms of cancer, according to Greenberg. The risk would depend on the type of radioactive material and dose received, he said.
Hand-held radiation detectors are not very expensive and relatively easy to use, according to Greenberg. But he noted that most first responders are not as equipped as New York police, largely because there have been no requirements for them to purchase the radiation detectors. In many places, Greenberg said, funds may not be available for purchasing the detectors."
bugs
(03/28/03; 22:26:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 100520)
....
--snippet from Sir Mr. Noland--
"I just can't shake the unease that the Federal Reserve and Administration have individually set course on very risky strategies. And I worry that President Bush and Chairman Greenspan share absolute steadfast resolve in their respective endeavors. I fear that, for both, there is absolutely no turning back, whether things develop favorably or spiral disastrously out of control. There is no backup plan, with setbacks met with only greater risk taking. The President sees no option but decisive victory; Chairman Greenspan no alternative than to buttress the U.S. financial and economic Bubbles.
From a financial markets standpoint, I am troubled that things are diverging dramatically from previous sanguine expectations. Companies didn't anticipate this type of environment when they over-borrowed and bought back so much stock. Politicians had a distorted view of reality when they spent so lavishly. The financial sector has ballooned with the expectation that it commanded the position at the very center of the Universe and its faithful partner, the Federal Reserve, was right there to resolve any potential issue. Debt-crazed households, having been convinced of blue skies forever, could not today be more vulnerable."
--snippet--
Attention all planets from the solar federation
We have assumed control.
-rush
Got gold?
Black Blade
(03/28/03; 22:23:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 100519)
War Spurs Fears of Another Recession
http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A39638-2003Mar27?language=printer
Snippit:
Worries are mounting among economists that a drawn-out war in Iraq could lead to recessions in the United States and overseas. "The economy is paralyzed. Businesses are reducing payrolls and investments, and consumers are very cautious," said Mark M. Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com Inc., a West Chester, Pa., research firm. "If the conflict wears on for three months, we'll be in full-blown recession." It would be a "debilitating" downturn, Zandi said, because of the weakness simultaneously besetting many of the world's other wealthy nations, including Japan, Germany, France and Italy. "We can't count on anyone to help us out," he said.
But some analysts fear that the dangers to the economy stemming from the war may be greater than investors seem to think -- a view the International Monetary Fund expressed yesterday in unusually blunt terms. "While markets may have priced in a short and decisive war," the IMF said in a report on global financial conditions, they "may have not yet focused on the possibility that uncertainty could persist for some time" about risks including "continued geopolitical instability and tangible threats of terrorism." Persistent uncertainty may "reinforce the headwind against global economic recovery," the report said. In a like vein, the fund's managing director, Horst Koehler, cautioned in a German magazine interview published this week that "a global economic recession cannot be ruled out" if the war drags on.
Black Blade: Actually there are several fundamental reasons for the current recession. The unmanageable growing debt (government, corporate, and consumer) is one glaring reason for the recession. This debt will never be paid off as we have gone past the point of no return. I expect that the Fed will do just as Fed Governor Ben Bernanke suggested – fire up the presses! The costs of the war, the following occupation, and eventual reconstruction are just "add ons". Still, there are many reasons why the recession was inevitable.
Black Blade
(03/28/03; 21:53:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 100518)
Market Wrap Up – Hartman
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Snippit:
No Respect, But Lots of Opportunity
I can not find a better risk/reward candidate than silver as an investment. This is a commodity that is getting no respect!! Silver is still classified as a precious metal, but is being treated as a base metal for consumption purposes. The gold/silver ratio today is $331.50 / $4.41 = 75:1. If my recollection serves me, the gold/silver ratio as they appear in nature is 17:1. Roughly 95% of all gold ever mined still exists in above ground supplies, while most all of the silver ever mined has been consumed by industry. About twenty years ago the US government had almost two billion ounces of silver stockpiled and today they have none. In fact, a law was just passed last year to make it legal for the US mint to buy silver on the open market so that they could continue minting the Silver Eagle Coins.
The silver market has been in deficit for over ten years, with the difference being made up in existing above ground supplies. Inventories are now at dangerously low levels. The paper silver players have been controlling the price for some time now, but I believe in the very near future the need for physical supply will overwhelm the paper market. Gold and silver have obviously been through a nasty correction, but the correction is just about complete. The dominant cycle for the metals is the 40-week cycle, which is projected to bottom in the first week of April. We're just about there. Patience is the key right now.
At the top of this WrapUp I included the 12-year chart of silver bullion. I have read in places that we do not have a confirmed bull market in silver, but I disagree. I'm looking at the big picture and saying that the bottom was in back in 1993. It was Clinton's Strong Dollar Policy (which included the containment of gold and silver prices) that has worked to push prices sideways. Assuming $4.20 holds for a low, and once silver breaks through the red resistance line on the chart, it should be off to the races for some big profits. I know I wrote a few weeks ago to back-up the truck to buy all the silver you can. I wasn't wrong back then….just keep on buyin’!!
Black Blade: Another point for both Gold and Silver is that even though miners bring more metal to market (consumed or not) the global population growth far outpaces precious metal per person. In that respect gold and silver become more rare. With the population of countries (such as India and China) growing at a rapid clip and mine production falling, it becomes quite apparent that the falling ratio of metal per person favors a stronger demand position with time. Given the deteriorating economy and weakening dollar (amid all the other global problems), accumulating undervalued precious metals for portfolio insurance certainly isn't a bad idea.
Roccoco
(03/28/03; 21:41:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 100516)
Thanks BlackBlade
I always read your comments with great interest; seems like you are well read/studied... Clipped and printed your two replies, and will read it with relish later tonight. Again, thanks.....
roccoco... PS, I just want also to let everyone on this site (including our hosts) know that as one searching to learn: This is the most informative, interactive, AND caring site on a subject that SHOULD concern every citizen of OUR country. I tell all my listening friends about this site because I believe the importance of the information given freely here; that it might eventually bring control of this country back to the citizens who rightfully have and will make this a GREAT country once again.
Even tho' I mostly lurk, I learn so much: THANKS to ONE and ALL !!
mikal
(03/28/03; 21:38:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 100515)
@Paper Avalanche, All
I have been mentioning the new colored currency the last couple weeks and a question hit me tonight.
As you may have heard me say, a photo-op unveiling at a public ceremony was scheduled for yesterday, but postponed two weeks ago, indefinately because of "geopolitical tension and uncertainty". Say again? Are they serious?
Could there be a little sensitivity issue with the mere public peek at the uneuro, the colored clone?
The Treasury Dept. press releases still mark this fall as the release date for circulation of new $20 bills.
Maybe a contingency plan has an alternate release date or different bills?
That's better than old war ration coupons.
Aristotle
(03/28/03; 18:35:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 100514)
Sad truth for Cometose, others
Nothing too deep here, so feel free to scroll on by and you won't miss anything but a thought or two on a chilly Friday eve. Mostly, I'm sitting here thinking about your comment to the effect that this war wouldn't be happening if the money supply were tied somehow to gold.
I''ve got to ask. Since when has any kind of linking to Gold ever been sufficient to stand in the way of war? Never has, never will, as far as I can see. Because links ("promises, promises...") are so easily broken. Think about it this way: If one group of guys are willing to contemplate fighting to the death with another group of guys, they won't be hampered by any misgivings about breaking a few pesky social contracts along the way.
Even with Gold covers or links, money/supply can't be caged or restrained against political will and the power of popular vote.
As I see it, the trick is to avoid the dislocations and the kind of malcontentment from systemic asymmetry that feed the proclivities for war in the first place. Gold has a role in a level playing field of the future, but not as money or it's bridesmaid. Gold must be set free to work its magic. As Property. No lesser role will stand the tests and stresses of time. Functioning simply as Property it will provide a bedrock of stability come what may.
Speaking generally, I know there's a lot of "Gold as Money" folks out there, and I'd like to hear them explain why they think my "Gold as Property" notion comes up lacking. In this, I don't want to hear for the thousandth time how Gold lends itself so well to the three planks of the Money Platform (unit of account, store of wealth, medium of exchange,) because that's tired old news, dudes. Take your focus off "Gold as Money" for a single cotton-pickin' minute and think seriously about "Gold as Property" and then, ONLY THEN, tell me specifically how you think it doesn't fill the bill for addressing much of our worldy systemic financial ills. Gold. It's not a promise and it can't be broken. Sounds good to me -- *if* you know how to use it! (Own it!)
Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle
balzac
(03/28/03; 18:13:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 100513)
TIME LIMITS FOR THE US ARMY
The temperature starts to rise in Iraq in May, the heat can reach 120f in the summer, RAF pilots in WW2
complained about the heat while flying in open cockpit planes. What will US troops do while wearing flaq
jackets and carrying 70 to 120 lb packs? The whole desert will be littered with army issue gear.
They had best hurry up the war before heat and sand storms do them in.
Balzac
Cometose
(03/28/03; 18:08:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 100512)
Black Blade
Sun Times of yesterday / Girl lost in action has a face
Many of the men that are making the decisions relative to this war don't have faces or names.....are in tbe business of making war.....within the confines of a socioeconomic machine wherein they make decisions and human flesh feeds their machine and their objects and goals...the machine as you so aptly put it runs on oil.....and flesh ....
Errors in the flesh of men running banking may cause machine to fail....(Errors of men running war cost also ...when weighing the costs , great errors have been made in value )......perhaps we become again most self sufficient after failure....then we become a little less dependent on others resources .....as a substitute for our heretofor lack of preparation....and planning
SHORT TERM VISION and LACK OF PLANNING BROUGHT US HERE....
Short term vision and lack of planning's evolution bring
( includes Representatives without a heart seeking office
and votes : short term in scope)
CIVILIZation to the BRINK oF WWIII a place where
future and direction of humanity and singly significant destiny of of solitary soul's take second seat to social agendas of ARROGANT, PRIDEFUL , SUBTLE, PSYCHOPATHS....doing their dirty deals behind closed doors,
using war machine to make up for lost ground.....
USUALLY when the actions of POWER HUNGRY MEN are driven by GREED....and their actions are taken from HIGH PLACES ....very seldom is the betterment of mankind at issue ....and the fruit in the aftermath bears this out.
Whatever drives these individuals that seek the top also makes them blind......which means that they're bumbling around in the dark and trying to convince the world they know what they are doing..... and justify their acts.
I am thankful today that the darkness that I walk in and the blindness I have is not the same as theirs up on high.
May we all have light to illuminate our darkness away.
I am afraid that 'BEAST' is the operative word here.
Ironic :
FIGHTING for territory isn't new , it's ageless....
Native American tribes numbering in the 1000's evidently were at it long before we arrived here.... WE DRESS IT UP AND TECHNOLOGIZE AND MEDIAIZE IT and make it GRANDER THAN EVER .....
GREAT WHITE FATHERS came USA and evaluated Native AMerican and moved NATIVE AMERICANs off land because in spite of the efficiencey with which he lived , he was judged by WHITE FATHER to be SAVAGE....Native AMerican influence is now almost gone....WE here 150 years after conquering tribes, inspite of all dazzling innovation and technological progress can't feed support innovate within our own economy(as perhaps those savage native americans efficiently did ) to grow without becoming the parasite of our future host....
Looks like manifest destiny all over again.....
Manifest destiny looks like sheeps clothing and a cloak of
deciet.................................................
to cover the wolf....posing as a sheep............
and his whited sepulchred bad bullsh*********T
MUSICIAN'S will synthesize in these times and bring a new message that will hopefully help us rise out of this funk
and seek higher ground....
Everything that is being undertaken is inevitable ......a man that promotes the use of deadly force against peaceloving peoples ....(.gets what is coming to him )....
and offers $25,000 per occurence should be hunted down ...
US CITIZENS ,
Following because of intimidation while simultanuously shedding the rights (of individuals {EMPHASIS ON THE IMPORTANCE AND SIGNIFICANCE OF THE INDIVIDUAL) the CONSTITUTION decreed and the honor of many paid for ....makes one question where we are going and if we aren't becoming the blind and obedient followers of the blind....who lead us down this path ...DESTINATION UNKNOWN...........
THIS " DESTINATION UNKOWN " may eventually become a
sort of manifest destiny train wreck
Derailment may be preferred .
Chris Powell
(03/28/03; 18:06:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 100511)
Bill Murphy to resign from GATA?
Maybe when gold hits $1,200 per ounce.
But not before.
Socrates964
(03/28/03; 17:48:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 100510)
Aristotle
Sorry, only just saw your post - Lips views are spelled out clearly on pp. 32-4.
Basically he makes 3 points:
1. Because all the economies but the US were on the ropes, the system (presumably via the newly created IMF) extended credit and allowed countries to run BoP disequilibria that a free gold price would have eliminated.
2. The system gave the US the monopoly on setting the gold price in US$ -i.e. there was no mechanism for adjusting the value of the dollar itself - hence if, say, Germany was running a huge trade surplus with the US due to the latter's fiscal profligacy, the system only allowed for a revaluation of the DM against every currency in the system rather than a unilateral weakening of the $.
3. The system allowed countries to hold their foreign reserves in gold and currencies convertible into gold (i.e. the dollar, although the pound was also allowed a limited role until it fell apart as a currency). Basically, the bad reserves drove out the good.
R Powell
(03/28/03; 16:36:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 100509)
Operative
Great minds think alike or fools run in crowds? I, too, spent some time at that Shanghai Gold Exchange site that P.A. linked for us in post 100492. It can be accessed even after canceling the downloading request that pops up immediately upon entering. I had no luck in finding any mention of silver whatsoever :<).
I had heard from the Gold-Eagle forum (and posted here) that April 1st was the due date for silver trading but there was no confirmation there either. Did you find anything??
Good luck with the homestead chores. I face the same myself tomorrow but I find the satisfaction gained outweighs the effort expended, sort of like exchanging paper money for metal.
Every time I read the "Single click only" sign under the submit buttom I think of Captain Rameous on the Red October signalling (responding to Morse code questions received through the periscope) the submarine Dallas with a targeting ping. Rameous asks officer Preselly to verify the range to target...."One ping only, please, Mr. Preselly."
Happy weekend
Rich
Black Blade
(03/28/03; 16:10:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 100508)
Cometose
I see the media is going after the administration over the oil well fire contracts because of Dick Cheney's ties to Haliburton. Congressman Henry Waxman (D-CA) is pushing this hard as well. Of course Waxman is an idiot (aren't most politicians?). But then I generally loathe politicians anyway. There are only four US companies that have such experience in fighting "wild wells" and only three are capable of a quick "emergency response" and they all are in Iraq. Another point is that if the energy supply problem is to be remedied who would you have deal with the problems – energy service experts or inexperienced buffoons like Waxman?
I think that the administration knows the dire state of the energy sector and that this war is considered a "national security" issue as without abundant "cheap energy" (in this case oil), there is no economy. But then I am no telepath. Take away "cheap energy" and the people whine and complain in spite of their complaints that the war is "about oil". Just look at all the calls for investigations into "price gouging" due to high utility rates and high gasoline prices. Electricity doesn't "magically" appear from the wall socket or oil "magically" flows from some pipe in the ground in random occurances. Abundant "cheap oil" is found in only a few select geologic provinces (unfortunately most are in the Middle East).
Actually I think that Richard Perle had dealings with Global Crossing (I'm not sure right off hand). He was an unpaid Pentagon consultant but then it's really a non-issue and just a distraction anyway.
I am not sure what you are referencing about "someone's daughter", but so far one female combatant is a prisoner of war and another is MIA. A female soldier's ripped and bloodied uniform with name tags and insignia torn off was found at a captured hospital yesterday in what has been described as a "torture chamber". Details are sketchy but it would not surprise me considering the type of animals we are dealing with. I have been wary of putting women in combat but that's what the people wanted and it was "fashionable" at the time so who am I to oppose it? War is a dirty business and it never ceases to amaze me how people can be so inhumane to each other. That's just the nature of the beast I guess.
As far as gold backed currency preventing war is concerned, I don't think it would make much difference. We went to war before when the dollar was supposedly backed by gold (WWI, WWII, Korea, Vietnam, etc.). We certainly do live in "interesting times".
What a bizarre world we live in eh? Hmmm…
- Black Blade
Off to the gym!
Operative
(03/28/03; 15:24:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 100507)
OH For The Midas Touch ...
This is "spring cleaning" time around the farm this weekend, or so I was duly informed by my queen. (sigh)
How much easier if everything was made of gold. No rust, tarnish, no fuss no muss. No need to repair, does not need painting, no upkeep, no expensive upgrades. (double sigh) Oh if my castle was only made of gold!
Happy Weekend to the rest of the castle! What's that??
Yes dear, you are like gold, you always shine and you never need any upkeep.
Bye gang, I gotta go now. (Woe is me...)
R Powell
(03/28/03; 15:19:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 100506)
COT
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm
The almost even position of the large speculative interest in silver caught my eye. The recent past has been a seesaw affair between the large specs and the so-called commercials buying/selling and selling/buying again and again, with brokers (commissions) probably the only consistent gainers.
The so-called small speculative category of traders, those holding fewer than 200 futures contracts, have been long for some time now. Ted Butler noticed a while back and has commented upon it expressing his hopes that these players were committed enough to hold during the price downturns. So far, they have been fairly steady. Most analysts whose opinions I read are still opining that silver will move with gold as there is no industrial or supply/demand numbers or information available that might move the market. So little transparency! Many technicians avoid silver as there are other markets that more closely conform to their chartist predictions. Silver, in this respect, is a renegade. So, the trend following large specs try their best to buy the uptrends and sell the downtrends (always getting caught on the reverses) while the commercials take the other side (also getting caught on the reverses). The small specs (imho) are the ones to watch. Will they continue to stubbornly hold long and, if silver again starts upward from this level (as I believe she will), will the small guys add more longs? I would guess so.
Fundamentally, the only news I've heard is that China may be stepping up copper production as much as possible for use in expanding the availability of electricity to its people. Should we tell them about silver coated superconductive wire? This copper production will increase the byproduct production of silver. It is questionable whether this will increase exportable silver supply as a great deal of that expanded electric use will, albeit indirectly, require more silver (switches, connections, electric motors, etc.). Again, this is the only bit of fundamental news I've heard of late, unsubstantiated to boot! Has anyone any other recent fundamental type information to offer? The very well known silver analysts (both those offering free and not for free information) have had nothing newworthy to offer. I don't fault them for this as I don't know if there is anything to report. I find little value in rehashing the fact that there are more contracts than there is silver. This is a common occurance in the paper contract casino game and it is not at all particular to metals trading.
I still hold the notion that silver trades in total disregard of the numbers representing existing stores, yearly production and usage OR my (and many others')evaluation of the situation is simply completely wrong. If this is the case, then the so-called official numbers (CPM's Silver Survey) are also grossly incorrect. However, I don't mean to give the impression that my enthusiasm for silver has diminished, it has not nor will it until I can disprove the deficit numbers and/or the almost exhausted remaining above ground supply.
I've recently read that a Patroit missile cost about $100,000. I wonder how much of the cost is silver? I do not wonder how much of this silver is recycleable.
Thoughts or news??
And, being Friday...........Happy Weekend!!!
Rich
Cometose
(03/28/03; 14:51:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 100505)
Rumsfield war architecht - Perle quits
Perle resigns.....something about his owning big stake in company .....defense company.....
10 Pentagon officials have ties to companies like the one PERLE is attached to .......
THE PRESS SHOULD TAKE THIS MEAT AND RUN IT INTO THE GROUND.
I think it was Eisenhower that spoke on the ills of the growing military industrial complex....
UNDER THIS UMBRELLA THEIR WAS someone's nineteen year old daughter from w virginia killed in a war yesterday .....or is this a "rumor of a war" . All that's left of her is the golden essence of the beauty of her spirit and the memory of her smile.......
She didn't have much opportunity ; thought the military might launch her into something bigger......
THIS WAR WOULD NOT BE OCCURING IF CURRENCY CONTROLS LINKED TO GOLD BACKING >>MONEY SUPPLY WERE IN EFFECT>.....
What's the worth of a living soul.....CAN"T BE MEASURED.....
ARE WE ALL SLAVES TO PRIORITIES which are upside down....????????????????????????????????????????????????
goldenpeace
(03/28/03; 14:45:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 100504)
Premiums...
MK's coin premiums have got to be less than "the bullion trust not to be named", which as of yesterday still had a premium to NAV of 23.1%! This is exceedingly bullish for physical gold at $333 and especially for the beaten up unhedged gold shares...strong premium confidence at a time of near despondency in the PM shares. Yum!
Peace
Bowing
goldenpeace
Daniel Druff
(03/28/03; 14:19:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 100503)
RUMOR
Bill Murphy to resign from GATA
Apparently his effectiveness has dissipated. If The World Gold Council can get James Burton from CalPERS, I don't see why GATA could not get Jimmy Grant [Bonner would be a hoot] or Mr. Burgos.
Bill's done a great job but business is business. And besides that the Cabal will not object to seeing Mr. Powell get the recognition he deserves.
DD
Black Blade
(03/28/03; 14:18:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 100502)
Re: Roccoco
One more point that I probably should mention is that we are at the end of the fiscal quarter and that too could be a positive influence on gold and the shares. You may be aware of the huge short positions put on the metal and the mining shares recently. I haven't seen the latest data but there has been a steady reduction in these short positions over the last several days. As we approach the end of the quarter the shorts and specs could be expected to readjust their positions and take profits. The fundamental case for gold is so strong in this economy it would be almost foolish to bet against gold in spite of "institutional resistance".
- Black Blade
Waverider
(03/28/03; 14:02:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 100501)
***VIP*** DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html
Snip:
"The precious metals markets are now responding to a weak U.S. dollar and weak global economy with a wary eye cast toward events in the Middle East as a distracting influence. The U.S. dollar has not weakened as much as expected due to massive injections of support from increasingly desperate Japanese monetary authorities who wish to have the weaker currency to boost exports in a shrinking consumer market and to close out the quarter with the yen at 120 to the dollar. The question is how long they can continue to prop up a weakening dollar with such massive infusions of Japanese yen. It has been rumored that Japan has covertly spent over 5 trillion yen ($41.7 billion) this month in this dubious effort. Some have speculated that the total this month is double that amount. Japanese intervention has occurred in not only Asian trade but in London and New York as well. Obviously this cannot continue for much longer."
Waverider: The Nikkei closed down 88.51 on Friday to 8,280.16. The banksters are desperate to see it close over 8,000 on March 31 - Monday. After today's action in the dollar and the DOW, I wouldn't be suprised to see the Nikkei closed on Monday...a sudden case of SARs amongst the traders or some such thing! Great DMR today - thanks BB!!
Daniel Druff
(03/28/03; 13:56:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 100500)
Madness In The Gold Sector
Three cheers for Messrs. James Grant, Bill Bonner, and Ed Burgos...they are gentlemen who command, not demand, attention.
Gold is portfolio insurance...insurance! I've never known of anyone with a smile on their face after an automobile accident...I don't care how much insurance they had. Now as far as silver goes, that's a different matter.
DD
timbervision
(03/28/03; 13:42:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 100499)
Operative
Thank you Operative for your comments. My question really was for anyone.
I think you are probably right that even if America were to win the war with Iraq, the endstage of the US dollar's life is upon us. The big financial bubbles that are bursting in slow motion probably began to burst at a time when all the world's oil was still being traded in dollars (say a few years ago). If that is true, then regaining control of all the world's oil, would still not be enough to reverse the course.
Black Blade
(03/28/03; 13:40:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 100498)
Re: Roccoco HUI vs. XAU
Snippit:
Here are the highlights from today's Zacks.com "Featured Expert column":
Is the S&P going to hit 600 this year? Ed Bugos thinks so and explains in detail his reasoning, along with useful information on a gold company that might be ripe for aggressive investors. The problems Ed Bugos sees are there is too much bullish complacency in this bear market yet. The PE ratio for the S&P 500 was driven back up above 30, after a miserable fourth quarter report in total reported net income. The main thing Bugos wants to point out is the pattern of estimates into the future. They're still very bullish. But when you combine the actions of the Fed, media community, investment community, indications of bullish sentiment implicit in earnings forecasts and other indicators, along with convenient excuses in place of poor fundamentals, what you have is a bunch of bulls in denial about a bear market.
Black Blade: One reason why nonhedgers (HUI) far outperformed the hedgers (XAU) was partly due to today's report by Ed Bugos at Zacks.com. He highlights nonhedgers Meridian Gold (NYSE: MDG) and Goldcorp (NYSE: GG). He like most Gold Bulls sees the deterioration in the stock market and deteriorating fundamentals in the US economy as being especially bullish for gold (and nonhedgers shares). Nothing new to us here of course, but this report among others apparently had some impact. As gold share prices are often mentioned as a precursor to bullion price direction this is definitely a bullish assessment for Gold Bugs and potential investors. Of course an anchor for every portfolio should start with an insurance position in physical before expanding into the realm of "paper" investments. But in response to your comments about the XAU and HUI action today this is a reason for the huge disparity between the two indices. That said, physical has outperformed shares and vice versa on occasion over the last couple of years. Currently precious metals are a screaming buy given the breakdown in the currency markets. BTW, next week we get some important economic data that will likley hammer the equities markets if not completely overshadowed by geopolitical events. In the meantime we can "covertly" accumulate until "discovered" by "the average bear" (as Yogi would say). Cheers!
a nation of one
(03/28/03; 13:25:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 100497)
. . .
Has it ever occurred to anyone here that the normal state for boundried economies (such as families, towns, nations, etc.) might be relatively inactive, when compared to more ecstatic times (such as when markets are soaring, borrowing is rampant, bubbles are expanding, etc.), and that perhaps human beings ordinarily are more healthily prone to cultivate rather serene states of existance -than comparatively more animated ones- generally, which would mean that strong surges of economic activity in fact tend to be diseases, maladies, or mostly abarrant exceptions to this rule, and that what are now being called 'depressed times' and 'predicted collapses', are, in reality, merely the natural, and to-be-expected consequence of previously wielded forces now no longer being deployed? Mere hangovers, as it were, from vigorous -and unnatural- economic situations and exertions?
Black Blade
(03/28/03; 13:12:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 100496)
Paper Avalanche – "April Fools Day" Surprise
It is interesting that you briefly mention that Japan ends its total insurance coverage on individual savings accounts on April 1st. I don't know the status of the proposal or if it is still on track. Perhaps this has had an impact on Japanese gold buying but I haven't got current data on that yet. The last info I had on physical gold buying in Japan was an interview with a major bullion dealer who stated sales were very strong. That was a couple of months ago. I took a bit of a different tack today in the DMR and put a bit of emphasis on the "wild and extreme" massive infusions of Japanese capital in the currency markets. Much is rumor (out of London) and as far as the amount concerned it is a matter of speculation but the rumors are daunting if only partly true. This has been largely ignored and over shadowed by current events as market players have been distracted and perhaps rightly so. This is the end of the quarter for Japanese banks, markets, etc. (not to mention the "April Fools Day Surprise"). The economic situation is critical in Japan as they are an export driven economy and as the world is mired in a deep recession this impacts Japan more than most.
- Black Blade
Roccoco
(03/28/03; 13:12:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 100495)
Hot Ziggidy... HUI, XAU
Whoooa... was out getting the spring chickens situated, and came into my office expecting the same cabal gold drowning news, when I looked at my streaming quote screen to find HUI +8.33 and XAU +4.05 !!
Been getting the homestead ready for the growing year, and have been only buying the last dip... not doing much reading/research... Anyone care to clue me in?
TIA, and GOD Bless, roccoco
Antipodean Bug
(03/28/03; 12:58:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 100494)
Gold stock quarterlies should be good
It is easy to feel despondent when looking at the drooping spot price we have seen over the past few weeks, but it is worth remembering that unhedged producers have been receiving at least 10% more for their gold in this last quarter than they did in the previous quarter.
Currency impact to one side, this should reflect in some buoyant quarterly results being reported over the next month.
If the rest of a producer's cost structure remains steady,
this 10% could make a significant difference to some bottom lines. ie A producer with a gross margin of $30/oz could
see his margins double simply from the upwards movement
in the spot price during the March quarter. And that effect would drop right through to the bottom line.
Maybe this will be a catalyst for a new sustained rally
in the HUI over coming weeks.
Paper Avalanche
(03/28/03; 12:47:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 100493)
@ Operative
Thank you!
Operative
(03/28/03; 12:27:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 100492)
@ P A
http://www.sge.sh/en/en_default.asp
Here tis!
steady
(03/28/03; 12:17:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 100491)
romania to back russia at the poker table?
hey what kinda deal are they going to be making on that gold! almost 100 years ago and they still havent Romania Pres Says Ready To Boost Ties With Russia
Dow Jones News Services
BUCHAREST (AP)--Romania is ready to boost its ties with Russia, Romanian President Ion Iliescu said Friday after a meeting with the visiting Russian prime minister, Mikhail Kasyanov.
"We are ready to move beyond the prejudices which developed in recent years," Iliescu said, adding that he hopes to revive the countries' formerly close cultural and economic ties.
Kasyanov handed Iliescu an invitation from Russian President Vladimir Putin to visit Moscow later this year. During that visit, the two presidents would sign a political treaty which has been heavily negotiated for more than a decade.
Kasyanov's visit is a sign that ties between the two countries are thawing after more than a decade of icy relations following the collapse of Communism in eastern Europe. Many Romanians blamed Russia for imposing Communism on the Balkan country after World War II.
The negotiations over the political treaty have been difficult, with Romania demanding that Russia condemn a pact between Nazi leader Adolf Hitler and Soviet leader Joseph Stalin which led to the annexation of two Romanian provinces to Soviet territory in 1940.
Romania also wants Russia to return tons of jewelry, art works, gold and other treasures that were shipped to Tzarist Russia for safekeeping during World War I. Russia has so far refused to do so. It wasn't immediately clear what the final text of the treaty would say.
In a speech before a group of Russian and Romanian businessmen gathered in Bucharest, Kasyanov urged Romania's government to ease visa regulations on Russian businessmen.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.
(03/28/03; 12:14:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 100490)
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