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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 2/28/2003 All times are U.S. Mountain Time (Yesterday's Discussion.) Sundeck (02/28/03; 23:44:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 98664) 21mabry #98619 - What to be, or not to be...that is the question! My experience is mostly from the Australian context, but probably not totally irrelavent...Making a choice like this is complicated if one tries to dig too far into it. Most people have no "best career options", but can be successful and fulfilled in many fields. Careers are largely what YOU make them. Your comments on teachers as being overworked and underpaid is true of the Australian (public) system IMO (my wife is a teacher). Work hours are much longer than on first impression and classroom situations can be pretty taxing - the teacher often becomes disciplinarian primarily and teacher secondarily. But, there are good schools and not-so-good schools. One of our friends (also a teacher) is, like you, doing her Masters. It is her intention to move into educational administration rather than face-to-face teaching. There are probably other opportunities with an educational slant as well (overseas postings? teaching disadvantaged or specialist groups? etc)Ahhh lawyers...dearly loved here as well, and oft maligned; always unjustly of course ;-)... Mercenaries? Many are, and you have to ask why some people go into law. But also I am sure there are many with great ability and truly principled intentions whose intent is to serve their clients well...its a question of how well they survive amongst the rest. There are also "salaried" lawyers (working for the government, say, or non-government organisations in areas as diverse as Defence, Environmental Protection and International Relations). A salaried lawyer, maybe, gets an easier time and can pursue a more principled existance with fewer pressures. And you can choose which area in which to specialise.Money? My feeling is that both good teachers and good lawyers work hard, but that lawyers make more money. Should they? Probably not, because educating todays youth and tomorrows citizens and leaders is probably as important a job as exists, but largeley undervalued and seems to be getting more undervalued. Times are going to get worse before they get better with the economy teetering.Not much about gold in this discourse, so read it quickly before it gets pulled ;-)Many thanks to USA Gold CPM for an excellent (and tolerant) forum!;-)Sundeck monTROZ (02/28/03; 23:38:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 98663) Wild Hare - Carry on Gold Carrying gold coins or bullion in quantity on a commercial airline probably isn't going to fly.I carried 30 TROZ of placer gold dust and flakes into the Vancouver airport in a beat up leather briefcase. This was way back when the POG was about $600 and security was LAX. After retrieving the eyeballs of the security person who opened my briefcase, I was moved to a side room where I was told, "I'm sorry sir we just can't allow you to carry that around the airport, let alone take it on board." The airport insurance doesn't cover that kind of risk nor does the insurance of the airline. I had to find a shipping broker who would take the shipment and had insurance. I was politely escorted out of the terminal. Then I had to take a cab over to the commercial/freight area where I walked from shipping office to shipping office trying to find a shipper who would handle it. When no one knew what I had, I felt comfortable carrying it, but after a while I'd talked to too many people and I was getting worried for my safety. Finally I found a shipper who would ship it, deal with the customs issues and keep it secure till I could pick it up. I was very relieved to have it taken care of by some people who didn't start sweating or drooling when they saw it, besides it was getting heavy and I had a plane to catch.There's no way in today's tight security that your "strongbox" will not have to be opened. When it is opened they'll know that they can't allow you to proceed. It's just too much risk to you and everyone around you. If you just had one or two ounces in an ordinary carry on bag, then maybe it would go through the x-ray and just look like coins. Any large quantity will look very dense on the x-ray and you'd be stopped. I've frequently taken a one ounce emergency coin in my checked baggage, and never had a problem. That's checked baggage and I've been fortunate to not have luggage lost. Call around and find a shipper or customs broker in your area who will handle it for you. Then sit back, relax and have a nice flight. ElGordo (02/28/03; 23:35:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 98662) Job worries http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/business/1800189 New York TimesAmericans are now more worried about their job prospects than at any time since 1993, raising the risk that consumer spending, the cornerstone of the economy, will slow even if the United States quickly resolves its standoff with Iraq. Concern about the job market is only partly reflected in the unemployment rate, which fell to 5.7 percent in January from 6 percent in December. Each month, the Conference Board, a private research group, asks people whether they view jobs as plentiful, not plentiful or hard to get. In February, 11 percent of people said jobs were plentiful, while 59 percent said they were not plentiful and 30 percent said they were hard to get, the group said this week. Those are the bleakest assessments since December 1993, and a sharp decline since President Bush took office two years ago. Then, 49 percent viewed jobs as plentiful, while 38 percent said they were not plentiful and only 13 percent said they were hard to get. Those estimates probably reflect the reality of the job market as well as or better than the unemployment rate, said Stephen Roach, the chief economist at Morgan Stanley. While respondents may not know the inflation rate or the size of the federal budget deficit, most people intuitively sense whether jobs in their field and their city or state are hard to come by, Roach said. The United States has lost more than 2 million jobs since March 2001, the worst slump in the last two decades, according to the Labor Department. Trojan (02/28/03; 23:31:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 98661) Bush May Tap Depression Era Fund To Aid Turkey http://reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=2308692 The $38 Billion Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF)might be used to give Turkey a Bridge Loan of $8.5 Billion in advance of the U.S. Congress needing 6 to 8 weeks to debate and Pass ? The $36 Billion Aid Package to Turkey in exchange for the use of their Miliary Bases.Trojan: How is Snow going to Manipulate the U.S. Dollar and Gold now ?Are they Serious ? Wow !!! ElGordo (02/28/03; 23:09:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 98660) @Black Blade Thanks for the Jim Rogers article. Great read.What aggravates me the most is Japanese interventionto keep the Dollar stronger than 115 Yen.Japan is determined to protect their export profitsby defending the 115 Yen/Dollar line. When will this end? Can Japan spend unlimited amountsof money propping up the Dollar or what???If the Japanese eventually can't prop the Dollar up anymore, they are cooked. Japan will be in an economic depression.Did you read Greenspans warning on Soc Sec for baby boomers?Greenspan is sounding very grim lately. Black Blade (02/28/03; 22:59:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 98659) Beyond Iraq http://www.tocquevillefunds.com/press/archives.php?id=37 Snippit:Paramount among these is the overvaluation of the US dollar. The US currency topped out versus a trade-weighted average of other currencies in May 2001, and has been in steady decline since. Thanks to dollar overvaluation, US consumers have enjoyed a decade long influx of attractive imported goods and low inflation. Thanks to dollar overvaluation, our trading partners have enjoyed increasing exports and strong domestic economic conditions. A weakening dollar changes all this. Fear of further dollar weakness will be self-reinforcing to the extent it triggers divestment of massive dollar asset positions accumulated by non-US governments and investors over the past two decades. The dollar represents 76% of world central bank reserves. As was the case with the dot COM stocks, the US dollar is over owned and over valued. The dollar will weaken substantially, and lead to higher US inflation along with weaker foreign economic conditions.The problem posed by a weakening dollar for our trading partners and by extension, the world economy, is deflation. It is not surprising that world central bankers are beginning to call for radical actions. On November 13, 2002, Greenspan announced "there's no meaningful limit to what we could inject into the system were that necessary." In a now-famous speech, Federal Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke promised to crank up the printing presses to stave off deflation. His words were echoed by Charles Bean, chief economist of the Bank of England, in a November 25, 2002 speech entitled "The MPC and the UK Economy: Should we Fear the D-words?" High-level officials of the Japanese Ministry of Finance (Haruhiko Kuroda and others) have been advocating that the Japanese Central Bank target 3% inflation as their paramount goal targeting. The Federal Reserve has been creating credit at an annual growth rate of 26% over the last three months, significantly above the already high trailing twelve-month growth rate of 10%.No wonder investors are running for cover. Miniscule bond yields offer little protection against the prospect of an orchestrated devaluation of the world's key currencies. A paradigm shift in the relative valuation of paper and tangible assets is underway. In such a shift, the list of safe havens is short. A new generation of investors, still conditioned by overripe 1990's platitudes extolling paper assets, will discover what a previous generation had learned and forgotten---the merits of gold. That we are in the early stages of a dollar sell off has been obscured by Iraq news. Hope flourishes that war fears are simultaneously dampening economic activity and stock market expectations.Black Blade: This one almost slipped under the radar. Another good article by John Hathaway of the Tocqueville Gold Fund. I agree that the primary issue for the rising price of gold is mainly US dollar weakness. Sure, we could see an immediate knee jerk selloff after the Iraqi invasion, but nothing has changed and any selloff will be short lived. The US dollar is grossly overvalued (by at least 20%) and it must weaken much further. Of course this means foreign investors will run for the hills and inflation (maybe rampant extreme inflation) will result. Wealth preservation is the name of the game now. The Stranger (02/28/03; 22:58:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 98658) Mikal, Cavan Man Mikal ... thanks for your comments. You might also mention what happened to the American Indian. Yes, Americans have sins of their own. Furthermore, Germany and France have long traditions of being friends to the Americans. My point was not to dredge up old antagonisms. My point was to question the notion that somehow there is a rape of Iraqi oil taking place. History argues forcefully, I think, that such is not the case. Furthermore, regardless of who you think created Hitler, it was many Americans and their allies who died getting rid of him. Sadly, many Germans died trying to keep him.Cavan Man ... I don't doubt that some Taliban are still alive. A few, as you suggest, may even be well. The same might be said, however, of Hirohito, who didn't die until 1989. That doesn't mean he wasn't defeated.As for the deprivations caused by the embargo, I would direct your attention to all the palaces that have been built or refurbished in Iraq during this period. Furthermore, one can only guess at how many weapons were not built as a result of the embargo. I think you are right to complain that America didn't take more decisive action long ago, but who are we kidding? If the rest of the world objects to an invasion post 9/11, how on earth was anybody going to go along with it beforehand? Unfortunately, however, 9/11 significantly raised the stakes. Everyone understands now just how possible mass murder has become. Can such a world still afford to look the other way when whole nations are ruled by criminal minds? I don't think so.Meanwhile, you may think that Saddam was created by whomever you please. I don't really care. I just want him out of there.Finally... I offer my regrets with respect to your friend, lost at the World Trade Center. As you know, over three thousand of my co-workers were in those buildings that day. In fact, my company was the World Trade Center's largest tenant. The truth is, the debacle was so horrendous that it has affected us all in one way or another.Peace, Brother! Black Blade (02/28/03; 22:39:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 98657) THE DOWNWARD SPIRAL - The US Dollar http://www.jimrogers.com/content/stories/articles/THE_DOWNWARD_SPIRAL.htm Snippits:In late January, the Senate confirmed John Snow as our new U.S. Treasury Secretary, the 73rd in the government agency's two-hundred plus year history. Snow, like Paul O’Neill and Robert Rubin before him, promised to follow a strong dollar policy and take steps to help spur on a U.S. economic recovery and long-term growth. Well, I know you've just started your new job, Mr. Snow, but I've got some sobering news for you. You and your pals can keep talking about this alleged "strong dollar policy" until you're blue in the face, but it's not going to make a lick of difference if you don't start managing our currency more responsibly. The dollar is not just in decline; it's a mess. If something isn't done soon, I believe the dollar could lose its status as the world's reserve currency and medium of exchange, something that would lead to a huge decline in the standard of living for U.S. citizens like nothing we've seen in nearly a century. Also:What's worse, little is being done by Washington's economic gurus to pull us out of our economic quagmire. Faithful readers know I believe Alan Greenspan is the grand maestro of this economic debacle. Our esteemed Federal Reserve chairman is the first to "buy any assets" or lower interest rates to pump money into the economy and give investors the illusion that things aren't as bad as they really are. Sometimes I wonder if our central bank is just going to print money until we run out of trees. People say that inflation is a dead issue, but you wouldn't guess that shopping where most of us buy things.Also:Gresham's law says that bad money tends to drive out good money. Well, whether we like it or not, whether we want to believe it or not, the U.S. dollar has become bad money. Despite proclamations from Washington about a strong dollar policy, I see no reason to believe that the dollar won't continue to decline, that we won't continue to borrow like beggars and put Band-Aids on gaping wounds in our monetary policy. That is, until the day when our creditors say enough is enough. And that day may not be far off. Black Blade: In light of the "Currency Wars" discussion, this article by Jim Rogers is quite interesting. Definitely worth reading if only for some thought provoking ideas. Mr Gresham (02/28/03; 22:32:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 98656) Doug Noland http://prudentbear.com/creditbubblebulletin.asp Yup... off to bed, with a full computer on the nightstand... Mr Gresham (02/28/03; 22:30:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 98655) Contrary Investor http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm Always good -- this one's about the U.S. "service" economy. Read February's, and then March should up in a few days.Let's see if Doug Noland is up yet... Black Blade (02/28/03; 22:25:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 98654) TARGET: ANALYSTS http://www.nypost.com/business/55247.htm Snippit:February 28, 2003 -- Research analysts have become an endangered species on Wall Street as cost-cutting investment banks increasingly see them as a waste of money. Yesterday, Goldman Sachs laid off six analysts and suspended coverage on 40 companies, including giants such as AOL Time Warner Inc., Walt Disney Co. and Fannie Mae. Goldman's not alone; no one seems to like analysts anymore. Fund managers scoff at their work; investors are outraged by recent disclosures that bull-market research was not objective; and their own firms are downsizing them by the day. But next week documents highlighting analysts' biased research will reportedly be publicly released - and a slew of civil suits against high-profile analysts will surely follow, say litigators. The analysts who haven't been shown the door by their employers are increasingly frustrated by these lingering investigations, and many have decided to leave their posts as well. Black Blade: Some time ago I said "I smell lawsuits". I doubt much has changed. Caradoc (02/28/03; 22:05:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 98653) Semi off-topic for Pizz Congrats on making the big escape! (And -- of course -- on that 30 ton purchase.) I've got another 3 years of playing road warrior on the I-15 and the 91 freeway unless AU does what I think it will. Only thing that makes it semi-tolerable is driving a natural gas powered vehicle that allows me to use the carpool lanes. Compressed NG is still priced per "gallon equivalent" at less than unleaded gasoline but within the last week has gone from 117.9 cents to 131.9. I suspect it will keep going higher for the 3 years I'll be needing it.Meanwhile, the closest I can come to your big escape is the occasional weekend retreat reversing your former commute by taking SR 38 up into the mountains.Enjoy your new life! Waverider (02/28/03; 22:01:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 98652) Sirs TownCrier, Gandalf Randy - Thank you for removing those posts. And that's a fabulous link you've added - super idea!!Gandalf - who ever said they couldn't teach Ol'e Wizards new tricks? ;o) Black Blade (02/28/03; 21:42:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98651) ElGordo - msg#: 98639 http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm Black Blade: The "Currency Wars" partially explained by Mike Hartman filling in for Puplava. Currencies must weaken against something of note rather than against other weakening currencies. That is unsustainable. My take is that Gold and Silver (most any hard asset of value for that matter) will be the clear winners. Hartman's conclusion is nicely stated below:From this article I gleaned the insight that this is no simple problem to solve since there are so many dollars out there in the world. All of the other nations are jockeying for position and ready to play some real hard ball if it becomes necessary. One of the speculations that I have been hearing has to do with a US attack on Iraq without United Nations support. The speculation is that if the US attacks without global approval, then it would give the Middle Eastern countries along with Russia the incentive to conduct all purchases for crude oil in euros rather than in US dollars. With a change of that magnitude, the demand for dollars would contract dramatically which would result in a MUCH weaker dollar. Under a scenario like that, I could easily see gasoline at $5.00 per gallon. In order to buy oil from the Middle East we would have to buy euros which could then be used to buy the oil. As it stands today all nations must buy dollars before they can buy their oil. The stakes in the game of global fiat currencies just got cranked-up a notch!I strongly believe that there is much more going on behind the scenes than we are aware of—much more. The global tensions are more than the war worries. It will be interesting to see how the dollar reacts in foreign exchange trading once the war starts, and even more importantly, where the dollar goes when the war is over. By the way, all the developments in the gold arena are more a result of the above arguments, rather than the common spin of war concerns. I believe gold is poised for a large gain when the dollar falls after the initial war in Iraq is fought. Time will tell how it all plays out.Mike Hartman Gandalf the White (02/28/03; 21:37:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98650) SEE ! <;-( That should be "BREAKTHROUGH" !!!<;-) Gandalf the White (02/28/03; 21:36:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 98649) Have you all noticed Townie's newest "creations" ? The Town Crier has been sucessful in creating two major USAGOLD Forum advances ! FIRST, he has created a webpage that holds the latest up-date of all POG CONTEST entries at a specified time. This will help in reducing the chance of DUPLICATE entries and save much space on the Forum daily sheets. BUT, most importantly is the SECOND advance -- which could be considered as a BREATHROUGH!!! That is -- He has been successful in TRAINING the Ol'e Wiz on how to operate the new program !! NOT that there shall be less number of errors made by the Wiz, BUT they shall not be as visible and may be easily corrected ! ALL this may be seen by clicking the LINK titled ***See Contest Summary Here*** just beneath the main heading of WELCOME TO TODAY'S GOLD DISCUSSION! atop the Forum page !Thanks SIR Townie !<;-) Mr. Bill (02/28/03; 21:29:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 98648) @a nation of one msg#: 98647 Well then enlighten me good sir. a nation of one (02/28/03; 21:25:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 98647) Reply to Mr. Bill (02/28/03; 19:15:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 98635) You say: "The only way is to leave the system. Who among us is prepared to do that? We all make believe with our hideaways and our gold. But when push comes to shove, we fold."---Your knowledge is incomplete. Who among us is prepared to leave the system? Many of us do it all the time. But that is not the only way. physicalman (02/28/03; 21:15:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 98646) Waverider-21Mabry-Wild Hare-R Powell Hi again all. Waverider,i agree. We All need to be more civil and refrain from interjecting our personal animosities of some professions. I do not think that those answers constituted the help 21mabry was looking for. If i remember correctly 21mabry you had told me last month of your positions that you had taken in au/ag. Take a look inside yourself at how you came about to make that monumental step and to have changed the course of your future. Then take those same powers of insight and try to apply them to what you envision for the future and where you would like to be a part of it. You may not every find that perfect place where virtually everything that you want to be and accomplish and also great wealth and power are melding together. Some very fine people, the best you would ever want to meet, through every changing circumstances, some of their own doing and others through which they have no control never come close to fulfilling the dreams of their future. Does this mean that they are failures? No, of course not. Living your life in pursuit of your dreams and desire for accomplishment (not self glory for its own sake or pridefulness) and to the betterment of mankind, even if followed by failure after failure is better than an existence of total regret! So i will not give any advise to you about where to pursue your endeavors. Dig deep inside yourself and one day you will find a path to follow, maybe even several different paths at different junctures. Wild Hare Contact our fine hosts here and see if any of their personnel ever travel to coin shows and if they do how they handle the transportation of rare coins and bullion on the airlines. They will be more up to date since i have not dealt (only been a buyer since 96) and if they do not do the show circuit maybe they could give you the number of a dealer who does (just make sure you get the best metal deals from our fine hosts) R Powell Your post reminds me of what my pappy has always said: It ain't what you make, it's what you do with it! Off to bed, looking for shuttle parts. Need to have clear eyes. Pizz (02/28/03; 21:00:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 98645) R Powell Thanks for the thought. The stress is draining rapidly and my wit and sense of humor are starting to return. Burnout sneaks up real slow and changes people -gettin' out just in time.Here's hoping for 1000 gold, 50+ buck silver, and a gold bug party where we can swap some stories.PizzPS. My 30 ton gold purchase is already creating problems for the CB. Seems that all the partners, celebrating the lease went to lunch and one was lunch. May have to disolve the partnership since "lunch" was an insurance exclusion. Now I have two Raels, hired by the CB sifting a litter box for remains. . . . Cavan Man (02/28/03; 20:41:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 98644) Vicarious Patriotism No one that I know of in our family is running around bedecked in flags while arrogantly making crude jokes about our former European allies. You feel offended and violated due to 911? Think how we must feel. We actually lost someone we knew, loved and cherished. I'll never forget the look on his father's face--never. What happened on that day and what continues to evolve in real time transcends emotionalism and ideology. Got that? TRANSCENDS. Cavan Man (02/28/03; 20:26:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 98643) the Stranger The Taliban were not defeated David. They are alive and well. BTW, the US government gave the Taliban $42MM USD in the year of 911. You can search the LA times in May of that year. The figure might be $22MM as my memory fails me. This is not the country or government of our father's youth. These (pols) are not the caliber of men of the WWII period. While I completely agree with your comment on "rape", you must agree that the US created Hussein. Now, he no longer serves our purposes. For twelve years we have been running a low level war against, not Hussein, but the entire nation of Iraq. In addition to the hundreds of thousands of (collateral damage)adults who died from disease, or malnutrition that could have otherwise been avoided sans the embargo, hundreds of thousands of children have died also. That is not an opinion; that is a fact. Why no engagement in the intervening period between gulf wars; why? This war is a complete failure of foreign policy. Blood on Mr. Hussein you say? Yes, true enough; but blood on all of us as well. Mr. Bill (02/28/03; 20:22:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 98642) @ Waverider msg#: 98637 Now, now, lady Waverider, you are not suggesting that we permanently wear rose-colored glasses, speak only of sugar and spice, and tell each other bedtime stories about how gold is going to the moon. Are you? R Powell (02/28/03; 20:13:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 98641) Choices // 21mabry Tough questions but precisely those most in need of your consideration at this point in your life. I don't pretend to have YOUR answers but I can offer some reminiscences. I found over the years that making enough money, while perhaps mundane, is the first priority simply because the lack of currency prohibits so much else. Asthma sufferers know that "when you can't breathe, nothing else matters". Constant money worries can consume more energy than that required to produce "enough". Ideally, whatever produces this income will also be your passion. Doing what you like to do while that doing provides a good income is the happy situation of very few. My old dad once suggested to me that the "enough" was simply a matter of spending less than one makes, more than a question of making more. Gold ownership for some is wealth protection while for others it is a "growth" opportunity, all in accordance with the "enough" question. You asked whether one should strive to make enough money OR do something to be proud of. Does this have to be an either/or choice? Can the two be one? Does something to be proud of have to be one big achievement or can it be many small ones achieved daily? Does one occupation offer more chances than another to do things to be proud of? My wife used to work in nursing homes. She has told me that no one there ever expressed regret over having skipped work to go fishing but many did regret life's opportunities not taken or passed by because their taking would have involved risk. Follow your heart, the only real hard thing to do in this world is to decide but, fortunately, few decisions are irreversable. I'm hoping that Pizz will be happy with his recent move. I believe he will. I'm proud he made it! I also still think the price of gold and silver will increase greatly in the near future no matter what the economy does. I also hope your decision, whatever one(s) you make, make you happy. I think of life more as a multiple choice event than a right or wrong test. Please let us know what is decided. Among my own choices, I bought silver rather than gold but this pertains to that "enough" stuff. If I had more "enough", I'd get some gold to keep my silver company. Happy Weekend !! Rich mikal (02/28/03; 20:06:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 98640) @The Stranger The U.S. and Gr. Britain created Hitler as much as any German, if not more. War reparations were not "reparations" but stifling, poverty-inducing punishment. Meant to protect wealthy bankers and industrialists threatened by German entrepreneurs. Further, the Bush family, Prescott Bush and Armand Hammer- do they ring a bell? Or JP Morgan and Standard Oil? Without them, no nazi war machine or fuel. I won't go on about Pearl Harbor, the post-war importation of Nazi war criminal/scientists, etc. ElGordo (02/28/03; 19:55:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 98639) Japan should "cease" Dollar intervention! http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Asserting that the U.S. dollar hasn't fallen far enough to ensure the long-term stability of the economy, a prominent group of economists urged the Bush administration Wednesday to take steps to ensure the decline continues.The economists, led by C. Fred Bergsten of the Institute for International Economics, said the U.S. government should end its long-standing rhetorical support for a "strong dollar." The government should also diminish its traditional preoccupation with the Japanese yen and the European common currency and pay more attention to the currency policies of rising trade giants such as China, they said."The U.S. administration should abandon all traces of its prior 'strong dollar' rhetoric," the institute said in a summary of a book it published Tuesday on the dollar's role in the world economy. "In addition, Japan and China and perhaps a few other countries should cease excessive currency interventions, which have retarded the needed correction of the dollar."On a trade-weighted basis, the dollar has declined about 10% on average against other currencies over the last year. But it needs to decline at least an additional 10% to keep the U.S. current account deficit from reaching dangerous levels, the economists said in the book, "Dollar Overvaluation and the World Economy." That deficit now stands at 5% of the gross domestic product and could rise to 7% in the next few years unless the dollar's decline persists, they said."The optimal course would be to have the next year look like last year" with respect to the dollar's declining value, Bergsten said Wednesday. Because U.S. economic growth is weak and inflation is tame, a further depreciation would bring long-term benefits without causing short-term problems, he said.The U.S. isn't likely to get much relief from Japan and Europe, whose economies are now weak and are limited in their capacity to absorb currency appreciations, the economists said. But currency appreciations in Canada, China and other Asian countries could help extend the dollar's decline. Those countries play an increasingly large role in U.S. trade."It would be inappropriate to look to currencies that make up just 30% of the trade-weighted exchange rate of the dollar to provide the counterpart appreciation needed to improve the U.S. current account," Jim O'Neill, an economist with Goldman Sachs & Co., wrote in one chapter of the book. "Movement of the dollar against a broader group - certainly one that involved the currencies of Canada, China, Korea, and possibly Mexico in addition to those of the euro zone (and only modestly Japan) - might seem more viable."-By Joseph Rebello, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9279Joseph.Rebello@dowjones.com----------Hold on to your Gold and Silver! The Stranger (02/28/03; 19:55:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 98638) misetech Forgive me, fellow poster. I don't know you well enough to know when you are serious or when you are kidding. But I have trouble with your reference to the supposed rape of Iraqi oil. There is not a citizen of France or Germany or Russia today who does not owe his freedom at least in part to the people of Great Britain and the United States of America. If there is to be war in Iraq, some Americans and Brits will probably die, just as they did at Normandy and in Afganistan. Yet, when the fighting is over, misetech, America will be there with food and, yes, with your despised American dollars to repair and rebuild, just as she was after VE Day, and just as she is today in Kabul. How, one might ask, is this supposed to constitute rape? America and her allies defeated Hitler, Mussolini, Hirohito and the Taliban. Yet nothing was taken from the nations which were liberated. Was that also rape? No, misetech, if there is a rape going on in Iraq, you have a ruthless dictator to thank, a ruthless dictator and a whole lot of bystanders in this world who evidently will stand up for practically no one in the face of danger.I would like to make one suggestion, however. Those of you who lack the courage or the character to give a damn: could you at least just get out of the way? There are real peacemongers in this world who have a job to do. Waverider (02/28/03; 19:51:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 98637) Another useless dollar bill I find the analogies and insinuations posted tonight both offensive and in extremely poor taste. As far as I'm concerned Randy would be doing us all a favor from banning these undignified commentaries from this forum. That's all I have to say. Mr. Bill (02/28/03; 19:15:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 98635) @a nation of one msg#: 98628 "--There are ways to avoid the syndrome that you have described."The only way is to leave the system. Who among us is prepared to do that? We all make believe with our hideaways and our gold. But when push comes to shove, we fold. Liberty Head (02/28/03; 18:45:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98634) *****$356.5***** Yes, I am the one who bought the 30 tonnes of Portugal Gold, and I did it because I am building a golden bridge, to help those who follow the path of truth, cross the deeply eroded Canyons of Eternal Stench.Cheeeeers misetich (02/28/03; 18:43:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 98633) Sundeck (02/28/03; 17:46:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 98626) SundeckA US $ bubble like any other bubble feeds on itself - and add to your cited reasons a few others - that of the uncertainty and nervousness created thorugh the Euro's introduction coupled with the weaknesses of the Japanese Economy and the continued intervention of the Japanese official sector -added to the tendency toward- the US $ - creating an overweight position - creating international misalignments and malinvestmentsThe US $ bubble deflation has just began its course - down 15 to 20% thus far - Goldman Sachs expects another 15% devaluation this year - and the chances of a bigger nastier slam are getting bigger and bigger- as foreign central bankers see their portfolios shrinkWho's going to blink first ? Russia is leading the way - who is next? and is going to be an all our rout?The US $ has a history of doing a roller coaster - in 1985 it lost over 40% - however this is not 1985 - the debts levels are much, much higher and the consumer is almost tapped out - a band aid through refincing - won't last long - Look out below!George Soros says it best when he says"The bigger problem at the Treasury Department, he said, was its neglect of responsibilities in regards to the international financial system"Got gold? Mr Gresham (02/28/03; 18:30:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 98632) Pizz Supremo! LOL ^ 99th power! Made my day. (I think we could probably never mention another "derivative" on this board and just refer to your post in the -- dare I say it?? -- HOF? Something like: "If ya wanna buy my derivatives, got one right over here in the corner, in the cat box." misetich (02/28/03; 18:13:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 98631) Dollar Bill Hello Dollar Bill Was it the Axis of War phrase that caught your attention? or was it the Planned Rape of the Iraqui Oil? or was it the desperate move of the Anglos?Or was it GOLD - PHYSICAL GOLD has no rivals during turbulent times. All onboard the Gold Bull Express." that attracted your response?If it was the Anglos Axis of War - offer a defenseIf it was the Planned Rape of the Iraqui Oil - offer a defenseIf it was PHYSICAL GOLD has no rivals during turbulent times - Offer a defenseOf course if you've been brainwashed in believing in fairytales and that empires last forever - stick around USA Gold Forum - the most informative - authoritative - gold site in the world and you will be informed rather than misinformed or disinformed Get used to it Dollar Bill - Europe is the New Superpower - and the Euro is gaining ground on a daily basis - and will increase its market share at the expense of "the world reserve currency -" - Ask yourself why would anybody TRUST THE USA - BRITAIN if they confiscate your funds through the introduction of self-serving laws? - Ask yourself whay would anybody want to keep their "reserves" in a depreciating asset like the US $And get use to it - just as the Japonese "circle of miracles" rose and died so is the US productivity myth - is ready to die as spending is channeled in unproductive housing and governmentGet used to it - the reign of the overvalued US $ is over - the strong dollar achieved through manipulation and investor deceit - is overGet used to it - there's more bad news coming - because the house of cards was built on deceit and "marketing" - rather than sound valuesGet used to it - the bubble deflation is not over - Can't you see that no matter what Greenspan throws at it, through interest rates cuts, through reliquification - through non-stop printing of useless dollar bills - and government increase spending have not accomplished nothing - nada! Those that have been guiled in believing in the promised US economic recovery have seen their portfolios decimated! What a crock Dollar Bill- Get used to it - the Rest of the World will never accept the US hamburger - no matter how you promote it - their cuisine est magnifique - and they call tell good food from bad- and don't know if you noticed - hamburger sales are declining - ask MacDonalds! An ounce of gold is always an ounce of gold Can you say that about a DOLLAR BILL?Vive la différence! Pizz (02/28/03; 18:00:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 98630) *****375.1****** Yes, I bought the 30 tons of gold - well kind of - because the letter of credit I used was from the offshore partnership I created between my wife's cat, Faulty, and his stray girlfriend we call Dee. Hence the name NoDeeFaulty. We then leased the gold to my best friend's offshore partnership that he created between his daughter's hamster named Will, and our partnership, hence the name WillDeeFaluty.Collateral for the lease was put option derivatives back to NoDeeFaulty with variable expirations that could be extended 500 years if needed.Now, this may seem a bit complicated, and to be totally honest, it doesn't make any sense to me, but the CB thought it was just fine and just delivered the 30 tons FOB my back yard. (Should have had them air drop it so it could have dug it's own hole. . . . )Pizz steady (02/28/03; 18:00:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 98629) teacher /lawyer depends on what kinda life style you want to live.most teachers yearly contracts call for 187 days of work. the other 178 days of the year you have off to purse other golden and silver things. how much time off do lawyers get?whats the best thing about being a lawyer?whats the best thing about being a teacher? june , july, & august. Sundeck (02/28/03; 17:46:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 98626) Misetich #98616 - Asian dollar reserves Misetich,The BNP report is interesting. I have wondered why Asian countries carry an excess of dollar reserves relative to their trade relationships. I can think of perhaps three good reasons, but there may be many more:1. Up until recently (last year or so), returns on US treasuries were quite acceptable with higher interest rates and an appreciating dollar. What we are seeing now is the gradual seepage of reserves to other assets (e.g. the Euro) as it becomes clearer and clearer that these new assets are likely to perform better than the dollar.2. Asian economies (those whose currencies are not pegged to the dollar) are overweight dollars to fend themselves against currency attack, such as what occurred with Malaysia a few years ago. They are reluctant to divest themselves of this "insurance".3. With the US dollar being the de facto world reserve currency, it has been prudent for countries to be overweight dollars (to buy oil etc) in much the same way as some countries were overweight gold during the gold-standard era.As returns on dollar assets erodes (lower inteest rates)and with adverse trends in foreign exchange ratios, reason No. 1 is more and more overiding reasons 2 and 3.Will the shift occur slowly or rapidly? I suppose it depends on other tectonic currency shifts - in particular, how well the US can defend its dollar, aided by long-term allies like the UK (who is the largest national investor in the US), and Japan (who hold the largest reserves and who depend critically upon the US for its export-oriented economy). It is impossible to know.With regard to gold, faced with uncertainty in what assets to hold in place of the dollar, a substantial flow into gold is probably occurring (in Asian countries) as a universal hedge against uncertainty.Comments? My simple analysis FWIW and IMHO only...:-)Sundeck Cavan Man (02/28/03; 17:33:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 98624) wild hare It's your private property. Put the AG on top of the AU. Have a sturdy and bright colored bag just in case it gets snatched; black is too common a color. Siochaina (02/28/03; 17:32:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 98623) Prediction DOW:GOLD ratio 1:1 I have a lot of respect for Richard Russell...that crafty "old" guy who has been thru all sorts of markets...he is,IMO, down to earth and provides some thoughtful advice/informationAnyway, tonight he wrote (snip)"Gold -- One of the features of gold that I watch is the number of ounces of gold that the Dow can buy at any given time. For instance at the ratio high in August of 1999 the Dow would buy 42.1 ounces of gold. That was the peak of strength for the Dow in terms of gold. In January 2000 the Dow would buy 34.4 ounces of gold.In January 2001 the Dow would buy 40.9 ounces of gold.In January 2002 the Dow would buy 35.1 ounces of gold.In January 2003 the Dow would buy 21.8 ounces of gold. As of today, February 28, 2003 the Dow will buy 22.6 ounces of gold. As you might guess, I keep a 200-day moving average of this ratio. The MA has continued down ever since mid-2000. As of today, the 200-day MA stands at 26.2 with the ratio of the Dow to gold well below its 200-day MA. The conclusion is that on a trend basis the Dow is buying less and less in terms of gold. At today's ratio of 22.6, the ratio is down 34.3% from its high of August of 1999.Russell Prediction. Of course, all market predictions are ridiculous because "the market can do anything." Despite that, I offer this prediction. We'll see the Dow-gold ratio down to or at 1-to-1, and we'll see the Dow and gold cross at a value of around 3000. When? Within a decade. "Note ...no comment needed!!!! Pizz (02/28/03; 17:17:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 98622) 21mabry Career paths and choices are tough. Very few occupations can provide money, satisfaction, and self esteem.Attorneys are mercenaries as well as CPA's and most of the professions - it's all about gray areas between the laws to make as much money as you can - mostly for others. Extreme pressure is the norm, not the exception - my stomach lining is about half what it should be and alcohol and drug abuse within the professions is MUCH higher than publicized.Teaching is an honorable profession, assuming you can stay out of the public system. If I was young again and was looking into a teaching career, I would look very hard at teaching in a private institution. Much better chance with an audiance that wants to be there, rather than the public areas where they "have" to be there.Try to get paid in gold and silver if you can (smile)Pizz Topaz (02/28/03; 16:51:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 98621) Bonds away! http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=tyxy%2Cfvxy%2Ctnxy%2Cgcg03&period=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=15&go.y=14 Weekend actions could have an enormous bearing on the future of the monetary universe "as-we-know-it".(a) a Unilateral attack on Iraq.(b) an ECB rate-cut. sans a similar Fed move.(c) a Fed move without the ECB.If NONE of the above eventuate, next weeks Bond action will be "historic". Wild Hare (02/28/03; 15:55:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 98620) air travel with coins I would like to transport my coin collection as part of my carry-on baggage. Does anyone have any information on getting through airport security with a gold and silver laden strongbox?Thanks in advance for any info.s. 21mabry (02/28/03; 15:52:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 98619) education I have spoken about my on going education on the forum before and have recieved some very helpful advice.I am currently pursuing a masters degree in education with the social sciences as my area of study.I have been doing pretty well,today when speaking with my advisor she brought law school up to me.I would like to know in which area this forum thinks one could do the most good.Money aside teachers are over worked and under paid,and the attorneys I have known have all been mercinaries..I would like to make enough money but I want to do something I can look back on and be proud of. Dollar Bill (02/28/03; 15:42:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 98618) R.Powell Hi Rich, you mentioned about your talks with relatives and freinds and thier responses.Here, **El Gordo** posted this yesterday and it should make quite an impact.Greenspan discussing Social Security and its future."We have to make judgments as to whether or not we are capable of ratcheting up the growth rate to ... say we can afford it and if not -- and I must say to you I expect not -- we have to review what the nature of those commitments are and make them far more capable of being fit into the capacity of this economy to service them," the Fed chief said.Media sure has buried this ! Dollar Bill (02/28/03; 15:16:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 98617) Mistech helo ther, you said;"The desperate move of the planned Iraqui Oil Rape may not happen as expected by the Anglo Axis of War. And GOLD - PHYSICAL GOLD has no rivals during turbulent times. All onboard the Gold Bull Express."this is not a good sign, any chance of widening your sources of information in life? misetich (02/28/03; 14:22:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98616) BNP Paribas Makes Case For Greater Euro Reserves In Asia http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/030227/15/38bo4.html Snip:SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Using trade flows with Europe as a guide, Asian central banks could justify shifting as much as $100 billion worth of their massive foreign currency reserves from dollars into euros, according to a BNP Paribas research report. While such a move would undoubtedly aggravate the current bout of weakness the dollar is experiencing, the greater significance would be its potential to refocus Asian markets away from the U.S. currency, said Andrew Freris, the BNP Paribas economist who authored the report. "The importance of this shift would lie more in acting as a lead indicator for the Asian financial markets, and in rekindling the interest of Asian issuers and investors in Asian paper denominated in euros," he said. "It wouldn't be just central banks buying euros. In the market we would see more buying of euro-denominated assets -- there would be a cascading effect," Freris said. While central banks in some Asian countries, including China, have recently increased the weighting given to the euro as they add new reserves, the vast majority of their portfolios are still held in dollars. Freris estimates that of the roughly $950 billion in foreign exchange reserves held by 10 Asian countries, excluding Japan, only 10%, or $95 billion, is in euros. ...........The BNP Paribas study looked at the potential proportion of foreign exchange reserves Asian countries should be holding in euros for such "transactional purposes." It concluded that the estimated $95 billion Asian central banks hold in euros is far short of the $195 billion figure that would result if the euro were given a full trade-related weight. The "underweighting" of the euro is costing Asian central banks it terms of lost opportunity from the currency's appreciation and the relatively higher yields in Europe compared with the U.S. Central banks, after all, are under pressure like other financial institutions to make decent returns on their portfolios. *******MisetichThe overvalued US $ is trembling - The world led by the European Supepower has taken a stance.The desperate move of the planned Iraqui Oil Rape may not happen as expected by the Anglo Axis of War. And GOLD - PHYSICAL GOLD has no rivals during turbulent times. All onboard the Gold Bull Express.Got gold? Waverider (02/28/03; 14:14:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 98615) VIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html Snip:"Gold rebounded after yesterday's sell off as bargain hunters reentered the market while the equities markets remain under pressure from rising energy costs and low consumer confidence data. The stage appears set for a repeat of the stagflation of the 1970's as rising energy costs, rising geopolitical tensions, and attempts to reflate the U.S. economy amid slow (or no) economic growth combine to stir up an economic "perfect storm". Gold did very well as a wealth preservation vehicle during the turbulent and chaotic economic environment during the 1970's and early 1980's. There is every expectation that will be the case once again."Thanks Black Blade! Magister Aurelius (02/28/03; 14:12:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 98614) Buongiorno I agree! I wish I had have the clarity Blade Blade is able to put into his posts. And all the other info-gathering he performs for this site and forum is amazing. The facts out there are scary enough... who needs to add to them with what might or might not happen? The facts alone got me buying gold... and I only wish I had enough cash to buy more. The facts of what is happening are going to do very nice things to the POG. And if that isn't enough, the Fed has told us that Social Security will be a "daunting challenge". Got gold? Buongiorno! (02/28/03; 13:52:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 98613) MAGISTER AURELIUS # 98597 Mille Grazia! Second the motion! Just look at Black Blade's posts. No political jabs, digs, or stabs in the back. Just the facts as he sees them and an honest effort to help us win at this very difficult game. Wish we had ten more like him! (I know, it is hard to keep an eye on the ball with all those cheerleaders running around--but that is what I think we need to do, IMVHO.)BUONGIORNO! Waverider (02/28/03; 13:47:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 98612) Saddam's Scorched Earth Awaited by Kuwait's Oilmen http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20World%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topworld&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_windex&bt=ad_position1_windex&box=ad_box_all&tag=worldnews&middle=ad_frame2_windex&s=APl8EARTVU2FkZGFt Snip:"Bundled tight in a woolen windbreaker, the deputy chairman of Kuwait Oil Co.'s emergency operations committee points a finger through a tempest of filthy wet sand moving across the border toward the rag-covered huts and tin-roof oil shanties in southern Iraq. Rashed wrinkles his face at the prospect of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein igniting any portion of the 112 billion barrels of oil and 110 trillion cubic feet of natural gas percolating beneath his soil, the second-largest proven oil reserves in the world behind Saudi Arabia. Although Hussein told the U.S. television network CBS that he will not destroy Iraq's energy wealth during any armed conflict with the almost 100,000 U.S. and British troops now massed along the frontier, Rashed warns that ``only an army of fools'' would trust the vow. `Saddam has done it before and will do it again,'' Rashed cautions. ``Do not believe his promises.'' War planners from the U.K. and senior Kuwait Oil executives on the Iraq-Kuwait border say they are focusing their attention on how to take control of the country's oil wells before Hussein has time to issue the order to destroy them, as he did with Kuwait's wells at the end of the 1991 Gulf War. Waverider: The implications of Saddam's potential scorched earth strategy are staggering as outlined in this article. Mr Gresham (02/28/03; 13:32:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 98611) Silence may be golden... http://www.msnbc.com/news/878116.asp?0dm=N19TL (thanks, Clink!) but I can't help a few LOL's (laughs out loud). Those "30 tonne" stories are FUNNY!We're at war (currency war). The only one worth participating in now. It won't be a happy outcome, but, like all wars, it will be the outcome of a whole lot of unhappy stuff already been done.We were the early recruits, now veterans. We've taken casualties. Will take more.Battle is for survival. Many have been conned out of assuring their own. Greenspan's remarks on Social Security yesterday. (They'll inflate it away; with 0% capped COLA adjustments.)But I'd rather take the incoming in my frontline foxhole, than be a civilian crushed at home under a bomb, not knowing what or why it them. However, I could use some R&R, real soon...BTW, did you notice the photos of Mr. Rogers were showing him wearing his GOLDEN sweater? Well, yesterday they were showing that photo, anyway. A friend once showed me a 6-page HANDWRITTEN letter from him in response to her letter about including peace education in children's schooling.Hey, all you celebrities (and regular folks out there)! Write a HANDWRITTEN letter to someone, soon -- TODAY -- and I can guarantee you you'll be remembered for it. Just like I'm remembering Fred Rogers. Saw it with my own eyes...Off to improve my handwriting... ;-) mikal (02/28/03; 13:11:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 98610) Broad markets, economy seen at risk Fri, Feb 28, 2003 Thom Calandra's StockWatch http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=Thom+Calandra's+StockWatch&dist=nwtwatch&siteid=mktw WAR IN THE EYES OF MAIN STREET by Thom Calandra -Excerpts:"SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- With war appearing almost inevitable, investors are expressing both relief and concern about its market consequences. Intelligence analysts say an attack on Iraq will come soon, possibly this weekend, and President Bush's speeches in recent days have reinforced that view for some observers. While investors may hope a so-called relief rally is in the offing, they also say they're concerned about the other effects. Many worry about increased likelihood of terrorist attacks, a development that almost certainly would spook financial markets. "Terrorist ranks will increase dramatically in retaliation to U.S. military aggression," says Tim Kurtz, an individual investor. "Our allies will scale down their cooperation with the U.S. North Korea will step up its commitment to build nuclear weapons because it feels threatened by the U.S. militant foreign policy. Our companies will remain discouraged from initiating capital expenditures, especially with less available cash." Fear of further terrorism is coloring much of the investor feedback. "It is incredibly reckless to invade a country that had (has) an advanced biological weapons program," says Brad Arnold. "Saddam Hussein has established an Islamic militant network trained to deliver chemical and biological attacks outside Iraq. This network would constitute a poor man's MAD, where instead of the nuclear mutually assured destruction we had with the U.S.S.R, biological weapons would be used, also known as the poor man's nuclear bomb." From Dan Mulvihill, another individual investor: "This is unlike any war we have ever been in. We are in a bear market with very overvalued stocks, our public and private debt is bloated beyond any measure in history, and we have a faltering economy that has been stimulated to unprecedented levels by enormous money creation and government spending. And our dollar is sinking fast."..... Kadlec acknowledges a war with Iraq "could prove difficult." He says in his commentary this week, "U.S. military forces could get bogged down in a hostile Iraq plagued by guerilla attacks. Iraqi oil fields could be damaged, leading to $50-per barrel oil prices.".....End snippits Gandalf the White (02/28/03; 12:20:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 98609) SETTLEMENT REVISION ---- DARN inaccurate "streaming quotes" !!! COMEX Apr '03 (paper) CONTRACT --- HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $350.3 Change +4.1Have a GOLDEN weekend -- see you all later.<;-) Black Blade (02/28/03; 12:19:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 98608) Crying over crude http://money.cnn.com/2003/02/27/markets/oileffects/index.htm Every time oil spiked in the last 30 years, recession came. Why should this time be different?Snippit:Investors would be wise to worry over the steady gains in oil. The price of light sweet crude has nearly doubled from where it was at the beginning of 2002, and just since this year began it's risen 20 percent. Such price spikes raise a big red flag. In the past 30 years there has never been a significant move higher in energy prices that has not been followed by recession. The first big oil shock (and the worst) was the result of the 1973 oil embargo by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. From 1973 to 1974 oil nearly tripled in price. The economy slipped into its longest recession since World War II. Supply disruptions due to the Iranian Revolution led to a spike that brought crude from $15.85 a barrel in April 1979 to $39.50 a year later. In January of 1980, the U.S. economy fell into recession. After Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990, oil more than doubled, briefly hitting $41.15 in October. Again, recession. And then there was that jump in 2000, when oil went from $25.50 a barrel at the beginning of the year to a high of $36 in November. In March 2001, a recession began. The link between energy costs and the economy are direct. When prices go up, businesses and consumers put more of their money into keeping the lights on and keeping their gas tank filled. That leaves them with less to spend, stifling growth. Most economists think that the economy will be able to stave off recession, but they view the recent jump in crude costs with alarm. "Oil shocks are a tax on growth, and this is no exception," said Richard Berner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley. "None of us know how long this supply shock is going to last." So maybe this time is different. Wall Street is littered with the broken portfolios of investors who uttered that phrase. Black Blade: The situation is shaping up like the stagflation like the 1970's. We know how well gold did then too. Could get interesting. Old Yeller (02/28/03; 11:54:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 98607) Power and the NWO http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/EB25Dj01.html Henry CK Liu is tired of the FRN magic show. Gandalf the White (02/28/03; 11:38:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 98606) POG CONTEST progress results -- "King of the HILL" status report ! http://www.usagold.com/contest.html COMEX Apr '03 (paper) CONTRACT --- HIGH = $351.5 low = $345.3 Settlement = $349.6 Change +$3.4 Yesterday's OI = 107,869 ......AND NOW Sir Kevin$ is "King of the HILL" !!(see the complete listings at the LINK above.)<;-) ge (02/28/03; 11:32:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 98605) Comstock on the oil for euro issue http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act=Newsletter.cfm&CFID=443637&CFTOKEN=98923499&category=Comstock%20Daily%20Comment&newsletterid=942&menugroup=Home&aol=1 "Bad Omens For the Dollar""Two recent items indicate that a long-term move against the dollar may be happening soon. First, according to an article in Oilweek, William Clark of Johns Hopkins says that OPEC is talking about switching the currency used for petroleum transactions from the dollar to the Euro"..."Reinforcing OPEC's talk, Russia reported that it will cut the dollar percentage of its foreign exchange reserves from the current 70% to 50% and increase the Euro portion from 25% to 30%. First Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said that 10% of his nation's reserves should be in gold and the rest in other currencies." Arcticfox (02/28/03; 11:29:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 98604) cnbc Guest on CNBC just mentioned that some of the large producers can't resist the temptation to forward sell at these prices which is bringing the price down. Does anyone have any information pertaining to any large producers starting to hedge. I was of the impression that hedging was becoming taboo for investors. Note that Barrick just indicated that they would be closing all of their Ag hedges.. GoldnSilver2002 (02/28/03; 11:16:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 98603) Oh the satisfaction! Well i just did it,i took my gold shares out of circulation putting my sell prices well over 200 percent from their current prices.Oh the satisfaction,knowing some stupid gold short cant use my shares in their silly game.You guys should try it,imagine what would happen if all the gold bugs stopped selling and put their sell prices way above past highs?Hey if they wont lets us make money,or gives us a real free market(rofl) then at least we get satisfaction.Wanna scare the cabal?Lets all sell at double plus.We are in a war guys, a war for truth.Hold your gold and refuse to fold.I cant tell you guys how much satisfaction i am getting from this.The most dangerous man in the world is a man with nothing to lose.Everyone do their part'sell usd,buy physical and set your sell prices high,then we will be in control and no longer dicated too by a corrupt,false system.They say holding 10 percent gold is nuts!Holding down jones and nasdog,even 1 percent is nuts.These guys use pro forma(put anything you want),lie, cheat and steal from you.I've got news for the cabal,i'd rather die for the truth than live for a lie...judgement day awaits! Cometose (02/28/03; 11:10:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 98602) Sector 98596 I'm not sure now whether war is a toss up or not....but...the vested interests have a lot at stake .......and they are likely not to go down peacefully.....There is a lot of posturing going on....I welcome this sort of analysis and prognostication because it gives food for thought....We really don't know , do we,,, I do assume that someone has talked GWB up on the need to go on.....for the nearterm future and longterm future....not of the globe or of peace or stability but of America self image and interest...but he and Rumsfeld have been very quiet as of late which mayh be the calm before the storm....Now I know that it is a terrible question to have to face and I for one am glad not to be in the decisionmakers shoes..Gold's move today could be signaling that the war premium is going, now, back into gold and that there may be Market Indexes following on the upward path if the US and Britain go it alone this weekend...I'm afraid I agree with you that if everything does not go as planned ....... and if we are not marching through the streets of Bagdad in 12 days in the liberation victory march , that harsh reactions are going to happen .....at homeScenario two for the case of no war may have already taken place . which would indicate the witholding of forecasted severe financial and economic sanctions already ready to implement in the case that we attack Iraq..........I pray (with a large and august body of diverse faith )that cooler heads prevail..... Gandalf the White (02/28/03; 11:03:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 98601) ATTENTION all you LURKERS and Newbies !! --- COME ON IN ! http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/tools/guideandsignup.html There may be FREE GOLD and Silver to be given away for your ESSAY and/or POG Settlement Prognostication. Enter the COMBINATION POG and ESSAY CONTEST and be eligible to WIN any of the Prizes. BUT, to do so, you need to have a USAGOLD Forum "FREE POSTING PASSWORD". THANKS to USAGOLD, you can get your "FREE POSTING PASSWORD" from the Town Crier at the LINK above ! He makes it easy and painless too.GOOD LUCK ! <;-) GoldnSilver2002 (02/28/03; 10:40:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 98600) Another short bits the dust Gold is truth'so we are here to discuss truth.Geo political concerns affect p.o.g.Im sure the cabal comes here to check on gold bull sentiment only to find their short positions are screwed'so what do they do ?Throw hissy fits.Ok your right,time to set my sell prices at 400 to 500 percent.Hold your gold the shorts are starting shake and cry and weep and plead,return to them tenfold as they have done unto you.Every gold bug who owns stocks should set their sell prices at 200 percent plus from their present prices.We aint gonna take it,no we aint gonna take it,we aint gonna take it anymore..... Waverider (02/28/03; 10:35:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 98598) Apache, Anadarko Drill Cautiously as Oil Prices Leap http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&T=markets_box.ht&s2=ad_right1_topfin&bt=ad_position1_topfin&box=ad_box_all&tag=financial&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APl98LRV9QXBhY2hl Snip:"Apache Corp., facing rising drilling costs and oil prices dipping below $20 a barrel, reduced its worldwide operating rigs to 12 from 61 early last year. Then, oil prices nearly doubled and natural gas tripled. Apache's response? It added six rigs. In the past, soaring commodity prices have sparked drilling booms. Not anymore. Under pressure from investors, facing a dwindling number of promising fields and worried that prices may sink, oil companies are abandoning their wildcatting past." Drilling in North America has expanded by one-third in the last few months as oil prices sped past $37 a barrel, according to an industry survey. Still, the total is 11 percent lower than two years earlier, and the recent rally is well below the pace during previous price surges. Rising drilling costs are weighing heavily in the equation as companies are forced to probe deeper, tap higher-risk fields and explore in remote regions. ``The easy stuff is gone,'' said Dennis Smith, a spokesman for Houston-based Nabors Industries Ltd.Waverider: A good article explaining why drilling isn't in the cards as a solution to the energy crisis (as BB indicated earlier today in his commentary). Higher energy costs...stagflation (yes-slow economic growth with high prices)...Gold Bull! Magister Aurelius (02/28/03; 10:17:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 98597) I've had it! I've very nearly had it... is this a forum to discuss gold or is it just a forum for a particular political disagreement? I've gone from being somewhat active to lurking and now I am considering not coming back at all. Zelts (02/28/03; 08:52:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 98595) correction Sorry , that should have been 100 BILLION to 40 BILLION. Poor guy, I guess he learned about diversifying the hard way.It will be a very sturdy shed. GoldnSilver2002 (02/28/03; 08:35:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 98594) Sorry to harp on this,but wow no volume Well when you mess with a market so much'strange things will happen.I track about 40 odd gold and silver stocks and today about 25 percent have zero volume on the open...wow!Now im no genius, but it can only mean one thing to me,no one will sell at these prices.Its as if the gold world has walked away,knowing the stocks will fly'so they just wait.For me i havent seen this before and i'm surprised no one is commenting on it.What a mess for the shorts,if no one sells how will they cover?The reason i find this interesting is because it's as if the gold community feels the same way as me.How do you feel you say?Im not selling,and soon i wont be watching either,content to sit on my gold as insurance,i walk away more determined than ever to hold for a long time.The longer the game continues the more determined i become.I joyfully hold knowing some short on the other side will get screwed.If no one invests in the juniors then no new exploration,no new exploration means no new gold.To me this only confirms everything we have read here is true and gold is going to the moon.Think about it,by smashing the price they make gold available cheaper,which means more physical can be bought.But they kill the juniors which means supply shrivels.Pure suicide,and something im sure they never counted on.They have played this game so long they thought it would never end.But alas,the news of the manipulation has spread far and wide.No sellers what a predicament!Well im off to set my sell prices at 200 to 300 percent current prices,knowing im screwing the cabal.Revenge is sweet aint it? Zelts (02/28/03; 08:13:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 98592) contest ****352.4****Yes, I bought the 30 tons, as agent for Bill Gates. Poor guy's net worth went from 100 million to 40 million last year, so he figured he should save some of it for his kids before it all vaporises. Plans are to consruct a duct tape storage shed and paint it silver. Boilermaker (02/28/03; 07:46:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 98590) Hydrogen - Fuelling a Myth http://www.e4engineering.com/item.asp?id=47963 snip;Talk of a hydrogen revolution is no more than an elaborate piece of window dressing and will never result in the new clean fuel economy that many people hope for. An investigation by The Engineer reveals that hydrogen will never be the panacea for today's fuel and environmental crisis. There is simply not enough financial or governmental backing behind hydrogen - and the indications are that in the coming decades the technology to harness its use will be dropped by the automotive, oil and gas industries. Lack of renewable energy to produce sufficient amounts of hydrogen and the expense of installing a viable infra-structure to distribute it suggest that hydrogen will only ever be used in fleet or specialist automotive applications. comment;The most likely candidate for future energy is coal used as a feedstock to make oil and gas. The sooner this becomes evident the better. In the meantime make sure you have enough of the eternal wealth, gold. Echoing BB, the times they will get tough.Boilermaker USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (02/28/03; 07:42:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 98589) Why should YOU buy gold? Because no one else will do it FOR you. We can help. http://www.usagold.com/gold-coins.html
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