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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/28/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Black Blade
(04/28/02; 23:43:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 74522)
Gold Flat, Oil Lower, NG Higher
http://test.crbindex.com/crb/quotes_crbcomp.asp
Gold is still hovering at $312.10/oz., Oil is lower by 27 cents, and NG is higher by 2 cents. Asian markets are trading lower tonight.
- Black Blade
Sierra Madre
(04/28/02; 23:32:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 74521)
GoldnSilver2002
Well, all I can say is "Hmmmm..."
I've watched this show for a long time, longer than most, and from experience I have become a sceptical and would refrain from shouting "Yeehaah!" as Cheesy used to do.
You never know what these banksters are going to come up with. They always seem to have a new rabbit to pull out of the hat. Remember, at stake is the enormous worldwide influence of the U.S. of A. It is not going to be taken down easily. "Whatever it takes..."
We shall see what we shall see. Looks interesting, but let us be aware of the vast resources of those who wish to control gold.
Prepare mentally for $298 by next week. If it doesn't happen, fine and good. If it does, take it in stride.
Sierra
Gandalf the White
(04/28/02; 23:22:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 74520)
SPOT is getting jumpy tonight !! <;-)
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$GOLD,PLTA[PA][DA][F!3!!]&pref=G
AND, if you like X's and O's -- check out the ALERT on the LINK ! $324 is next "bump-in-the-TRAIL"
<;-)
Black Blade
(04/28/02; 22:16:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 74519)
canamami - CB Sales? It Does Not Matter
Does it matter if the CBs sell any Gold? They only sell to each other and the demand outstrips supply by about 1000 tons. Only the brain dead on Wall Street are concerned about CB sales. Note that the official sector Gold has been and still is about 32,000 tons over the last several years, so the much touted Gold sales have not contributed much to actual demand. Personally I would prefer that the official sector Gold was "liberated" to the people and taken out of the hands of our rulers. Cheers!
- Black Blade
canamami
(04/28/02; 21:42:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 74518)
Will there be a CB dump? Does it matter?
Will one of the CB's attempt to derail this, or will this rally be allowed to survive? If the dollar is due for a tumble, the Fed/Treasury may want to keep its gold, which will soon rise in value and which may have strategic importance. The counter argument: What is the status of the Swiss gold which is to be sold? The great variable: grassroots and perhaps official demand in Japan, China and India.
GoldnSilver2002
(04/28/02; 20:25:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 74517)
The jokes on the cabal..the game is over and theres no escape
I wont flatter myself that anyone read my post last month in which i clearly stated april would be the match to lite the fire on gold.The cabal have an entirely different problem now,every time they drive down the price,more buying occurs in the dips as panicking shorts and wise investors jump in.The more they drive the price down,the more people buy gold.The perfect catch 22,do they allow gold to float up and allow the american people to realize the only thing making money is gold,or do they dump gold at what will soon become pathetically low prices ,thus increasing their own losses such as the idiots in the uk did?There is no escape now and gold will now slowly begin an exponential growth curve.As JP morgan chase and others collapse panick will set in and gold will drive higher crushing its enemies mercilessly all the way.
Soon the chinese will jump into the fray,quite intentionally'selling useless u.s dollars and increasing its gold reserve from 2 percent to closer to 15 percent.Simply put the usa has tried to dictate poverty to the rest of the world and the world will resoundingly say NO!All we can do now is sit back and watch the u.s media lie as everything unravels.Soon even the u.s business shows will be cancelled as people lose their money listening to these morons and liars leaving nothing in golds path as it soars past 1700 per oz by 2003.The game is over ...enjoy!
mikal
(04/28/02; 20:16:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 74516)
@Christian
http://www1.timesofindia.com:80/articleshow.asp?art_id=8226817
MONDAY, APRIL 29, 2002
THE TIMES OF INDIA
WORLD: AMERICAS
CIA official warns terror attack unavoidable
AFP [ SUNDAY, APRIL 28, 2002 7:20:04 AM ]
WASHINGTON: A top Central Intelligence Agency official has warned Americans that a new terrorist attack is unavoidable..............The warning was contained in an address delivered by Pavitt, who is in charge of all clandestine operations conducted by the agency, at an April 11 conference at Duke University in Durham, North Carolina. The CIA released its transcript over this weekend.
US law enforcement agencies are already on heightened alert after the Federal Bureau of Investigation has issued at least two terrorism warnings over the past 10 days.
The FBI told local police officials it had intelligence information about attacks being planned against financial institutions in northeastern US states and against shopping malls.....click link for more
Christian: Could an incident on June 4, 2002 fulfill this warning? You have a good handle on their occult number games. What do you think?
Mr. Bill
(04/28/02; 19:38:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 74515)
shelllus
Unless I am missing something also, if the leasor does not ask for the gold back, I would think that the leasee could wait until forever to pay it back.
shelllus
(04/28/02; 19:18:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 74514)
trapped?! shorts--you dont 'trap' a 500lb. gorilla--remember the Hunts cornered the silver market--only trouble was that the shorts they trapped ran the exchange AND changed the
rules rather than let themselves be ruined-the Hunts were ruined instead--so issue is WHO are the trapped gold shorts in 2002 and how high does their influence reach?--anyone disaagree?-please say so, i hope i am wrong
R Powell
(04/28/02; 19:09:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 74513)
Mr Bill
I'd like to add that there are many analysts that have been warning of reduced silver use from digital photography. Both Philip Gotthelf and William Frejlich have been repeating this for years and are still saying so. Both of these are well known, respected commodity analysts. The discussion around this possibility was one of the reasons I searched for some sort of reliable, verifiable numbers on photographic silver use before and after the advent of digital cameras. I'm still looking for more reliable and verifiable numbers. However, analysis from the available numbers shows photographic use increasing. Many still believe otherwise. Maybe they have access to information that I can not find?
Also, the misconception that the Hunts did try to and did corner the silver market is probably the majority opinion or belief concerning the price advance in 1979-1980. I also thought this to be true until I researched further. I know that there is much I don't know. What I believe to be true that is in fact, not, is more harmful to me than that which I don't know. It takes two opinions to make a market!
Rich
Ray Patten
(04/28/02; 19:03:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 74512)
Do the shorts have to buy over a million Gold contracts?
http://www.futuresource.com/news/news.asp?search=comex&count=50
In my 40 years of trading commodity futures, I have found that it always pays to look at the numbers. This is a possible explanation for the coming spike in Gold prices that many people are expecting.
32,156 troy ounces per tonne X 5000 tonnes = 160,780,000 troy ounces divided by 100 = 1,607,800 Comex Gold futures contracts. (Correct my math if you know it's wrong.) The 5000 tonnes is the admitted total of leased Gold. We all know it's at least double that. If a decent percentage of this leased Gold tries to stop the pain by buying futures, we could see this rally happen in the next month. The key is going to be the open interest figures. Open interest has always told the story in Gold trading and this time will be no exception. Who will sell this tremendous total of contracts? The Exchange Stabalization Fund (also know as the Plunge Protection Team) is already short 100,000 contracts, so each $100 is going to cost them a $billion.
The above link has the Gold futures open interest figures for the previous day about noon New York time every business day. This site's News & Views page should also have them about that time. I'm not the first to say that this could be the greatest short squeeze in the history of finance.
Mr. Bill
(04/28/02; 18:57:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 74511)
@R Powell
You still seem to keep basing all of your opinion on one issue, the digital camera. No one is arguing that the digital camera has had much effect yet, but that it probably will in the future. That was an early post looking for a reason to dump silver. Unless you explore the topic further, your opinion does not get to the heart of the matter. This is not a supply and demand issue, it is a "smell a rat" issue.
Black Blade
(04/28/02; 18:54:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 74510)
Rising Oil Prices Bad News for Wall St.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/020428/stocks_oil_1.html
Snippit:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street is having a flashback -- to the 1970s.
Investors, casting a nervous eye on rising oil prices, are worried about escalating violence in the Middle East. "There is an inverse historical relationship between the stock market and oil prices," said Fadel Gheit, oil equities analyst with brokerage Fahnestock & Co. "Low oil prices subsidize the economy and higher prices tax it."
Oil prices have been on the rise in recent months, hovering at around $26 a barrel, and analysts warn the nascent economic recovery in the world's largest economy might be in danger of being derailed, should they go back up to over $30.
The impact of rising energy costs was last felt in 2000, when crude shot as high as $38, sending costs higher for companies ranging from airlines to plastics manufacturers. This was partly to blame for the U.S. economic slowdown, which sent Wall Street deeper into bear market territory.
FRIGHTENING PROSPECT
Pundits are saying the flow of oil from the Middle East could even dry up if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict escalates to an all-out war. Some think Saudi Arabia may not be as willing to cover for shortages when others opt to cut back the supply. "This could spin out of control if (President George W.) Bush does not get it contained," Gheit said.
Black Blade: As I have been saying for quite some time. Of course we know the reaction of the Gold markets in the past when the POO moved higher. The POG dropped after the POO started down in 1996 (also along with the Bre-X scam). When the POO hit a low of $10.00/bbl we saw Gold test new lows. Lately the higher prices of oil along with last years energy crisis that triggered the current recession we now see the POG rising in response. Note that higher energy costs hit consumer spending and drop straight to the corporate bottom line. Remember the Wall Street Pimps and financial media Trolls last year spewing forth misinformation that energy was not important to the economy anymore? Now these same toads are crying about the rising costs of energy. Hmmm…
R Powell
(04/28/02; 18:29:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 74509)
Mr. Bill
My previous comments, as I stated, were a response to one of Endgame's articles, namely "Silver Trules"
I thought I had clearly stated that Mr. Endgame's historical facts are fiction. His statement that digital photography will greatly decrease silver use is also incorrect. Digital photography is not new. The amount os silver consumed in photographic use has increased every year with the exception of a slight decrease in the year 2000.
How can you not see the "relevance to the posts there" (meaning Endgame's essays). I'm saying that opinions based on totally distorted history and on incorrect factual statistical useage numbers is hogwash. Garbage in, garbage out.
I'll agree with Endgame that the POG and POS are headed higher. We disagree on why. He points to manipulation. I see many fundamental reasons and the possible ending of market manipulative forces, namely reduced mining company hedging, forward bullion bank sales resulting from leasing and a possible end to government intervention supporting an overvalued dollar. I'll agree also that "AT a certain point silver will be delivered". Of course. When the price of any commodity goes up, the higher price stimulates more production and dishoarding. There is a greater supply of silver available in above ground, ready for delivery form right now at $20.00/ounce than there is a $5.00/ounce. Indeed, grandma's tea set and some collectable coins may become available at $100.00/ounce
It's interesting that Endgame thinks silver is hidden with the express purpose of supplying the market after prices of both gold and silver have advanced AND with the express purpose of lowering the price of both. He has already stated in "Silver Trules" that silver is no longer money, just a commodity so, why does he think that lowering the POS will also lower the POG? Why not manipulate the price of cotton or soybeans higher, then lower them with the dishoarding of hidden stores to lower the POG? Cotton and soybeans, like silver are just commodities (according to Endgame) and not considered money. Yet he basis his conspiracy theory on a given assumption that lowering the POS will automatically lower the POG. ( I happen to agree, but I consider both metals as a store of wealth, money).
I admit to not reading all the essays. Why should I read more opinions based on errors? He gives no references and very few facts. Those that he did rely on in "Silver Trules" I know to be false. Would you listen to numerous essays written on mathematics if the author started by stating that 2+2=7??
If Endgame opines that a collapse of the U.S.$ will raise the POS, I'll nod in agreement. Supplying a national trade deficit by increasing debt created paper money will IMHO eventually cause the devaluation of that currency. When this happens and as its result I'm guessing that silver and gold won't be the only things to be taged with higher numerical dollar valuations. I think all tangible commodities are going to advance in price during the rest of this year and throughout 2003. Most will at least double in price. Some will double again. It's not inconcievable that some like sugar, gold and silver may double yet again.
I routinely receive solicitations from salesmen trying to raise money (my money!), mostly to trade in commodities investment pools (funds) or to invest in oil exploration or emerging bio-tech companies. I am a poor man, have no extra money to invest and certainly wouldn't give it to others to invest even if I had! However, I'm on their calling lists and often talk with them after they've read their prepared sales pitch. Most know very little beyond that sales pitch line but will forward me to more knowledgeable personel. Sometimes I gain information from them but mostly I'm amazed by how little they know of that which they're promoting. When their sales pitch predictions are loosely based on facts which I know to be false and they have no further knowledge of the subject, then what have I to gain?
They don't know their facts are flawed and don't care that their facts are lies! Endgame's thoughts are based on assumptions that I know to be false. There is too much well researched, well written, substantiated and footnoted knowledge available and so little time. Thanks again for the reference but unless others have some positive remarks in Endgame's favor, I'll read elsewhere.
Rich
mikal
(04/28/02; 18:06:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 74508)
From Canada
From Canada's Financial Post:
E-mail message
From: LePatron@LeMetropoleCafe.com Date: Sun, Apr 28, 2002, 5:42pm (EDT-1) To: constellation3@webtv.net Subject: [GATA] Financial Post story on new bullion fund cites GATA
Le Metropole Members,
[GATA] Financial Post story on new bullion fund cites GATA Date: 4/28/2002 3:10:22 PM Central Standard Time From: GATAComm@aol.com To: gata@yahoogroups.com
4p ET Sunday, April 28, 2002
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
The story below from Canada's Financial Post, about a new bullion investment fund, mentions GATA's work.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
* * *
Bullion fund holds equal weights
in gold, silver, and platinum
By Jonathan Chevreau
Financial Post (Canada)
April 25, 2002
More than two years after it was originally meant to be released, the Millennium
Bullionfund has finally received regulatory approval and is available for sale in
Ontario. Registration in other provinces is expected at the end of the summer.
Managed by Toronto-based Bullion Management Services Inc., the mutual fund trust is
invested one third in physical gold, one third in silver bullion and one third in platinum, says president Nick Barisheff. There are no derivatives, futures contracts or options, just the actual physical precious metals, which will be delivered to investors if requested. Up to 5% cash may be held.
Otherwise, the bullion is held in a
segregated vault at the Bank of Nova Scotia, with twice-yearly inspections by auditors at Ernst & Young. Barisheff buys each metal at the prevailing spot price and has insurance to protect against destruction or theft. The annual management fee is 2.25%, which allows the firm to pay dealers trailer fees
comparable to other mutual funds. There is also an early redemption fee.
Barisheff created the fund for Canadian RRSP and RRIF investors who before now have not been able to hold bullion either directly or through an open-ended fund in registered plans. Most RRSP investors participate
indirectly through precious metals mutual funds, which usually own mining stocks rather than the underlying bullion. The only other fund to hold bullion is the Central Fund of Canada Ltd., a closed-end fund.
Barisheff concedes gold stocks or mutual funds offer a more leveraged play but views his new fund as a cash equivalent that hedges against paper-based assets. Gold bullion is up from US$254 this time a year ago to more than US$300 currently, but some precious metals funds are up 100%.
If the global economy deteriorates the way he expects it might, Barisheff believes physical metals may hold their value better than mere paper, whether stocks or funds.
For history to repeat gold's rise from US$35 in the 1970s to US$800 in January, 1980, gold would have to rise to US$6,000, a possibility Barisheff can envision.
He's convinced the global economy of the early 2000s is gloomier than the conditions of the 1970s which contributed to the last surge in gold prices.
His Web site at www.bullionfund.com outlines the forces he believes will make the last year's runup a mere prelude to what may come. If the artificial supply of leased gold were removed, that alone would make the
equilibrium price of gold more than US$700 an ounce.
Barisheff originally developed the fund with a hope to beating the expected Y2K rush to precious metals. Delays from the Ontario Securities Commission prevented him making the deadline, but the fund finally was
approved in January and was available for sale in March.
Barisheff says precious metals currently offer a "rare risk/reward relationship." While he sees a huge upside, he believes that because the gold price is near its production cost, gold's floor is US$250.
Demand for gold, silver and platinum
outstrips mine supply, he says. With silver, "a situation is rapidly developing in which above-ground stocks will be completely
depleted in 2002."
Barisheff has his eye on a dozen possible events that could trigger the next rise in metals prices. These include war, terrorism, an unexpected collapse in derivatives
markets, a move by foreign currency holders to the euro and a court victory by the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee.
Canuck
(04/28/02; 17:57:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 74507)
POG
Kitco has gold up $0.40 to 311.80 and INO has gold up $1.05 to $312.30.
mikal
(04/28/02; 17:46:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 74506)
Ignorance is bliss
"We Communists are like seeds and the people and the people are the soil. Wherever we go, we must unite with the people, take root and blossom among them."- Mao Tse-Tung "[Communism] has never come to power in a country that was not disrupted by war or internal corruption or both."- John F. Kennedy, speech, July 3, 1963
Artie Farkle
(04/28/02; 17:26:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 74505)
See spot jump!
: )
Canuck
(04/28/02; 17:24:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 74504)
Puplava is red hot
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htm?321gold
"It is only a matter of time before we face another LTCM or Enron or the simultaneous occurrence of multiple LTCMs and Enrons hitting the markets at the same time. The question now is who is on the wrong side of a trade. Below the surface, rumors are flying that someone big on The Street is in trouble with their derivative book. The question is not if, but when and who."
sourdough
(04/28/02; 17:11:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 74503)
Where`s it gonna go?
April 29, 2002
Financial liquidity in Japan seen to have reached 100t yen
20t yen could head for foreign shores: ex-BOJ official
By
Anthony Rowley
In Tokyo
A SEA of financial liquidity of around 100 trillion yen (S$1.4 trillion) has built up in Japan as depositors fled bank time deposits and the Bank of Japan pumped huge amounts of money into the system.
According to some informed estimates, as much as 20 per cent of this could wash up on foreign shores, provoking capital outflows from Japan far in excess of those normally seen and boosting foreign bond and stock markets, as well as triggering further declines in the value of the yen.
Where the money goes to depends in part upon how Japanese investors view foreign exchange risks, analysts say.
With a growing perception that the 'strong' US dollar may be about to 'correct' substantially in the short to medium term, Japanese investors may fight shy of dollar securities and prefer euro or sterling bonds and equities as well as emerging market securities in Asia and elsewhere, they suggest.
The liquidity build-up in Japan reflects in part the alarm felt by financial institutions, companies and individuals as the end of the so-called 'payoff' period approached on March 31, after which the authorities ceased to offer a blanket guarantee on time deposits in the event of bank failures, and instead limited the official guarantee to just 10 million yen.
The desire to hold cash or 'near cash' also mirrors the general unease that customers feel about the safety of banks in general, analysts say.
According to one former senior Bank of Japan official, funds withdrawn from time deposits and converted into demand deposits in recent months amount to 30-40 trillion yen.
With huge holdings of cash and 'short-term paper' of one kind or another in Japan, total liquidity in the system probably amounts to around 100 trillion yen at present, he said.
The BOJ has also boosted its target for 'excess' bank reserves from five trillion yen to 15 trillion yen - further boosting liquidity.
'The question is, where will this money go?' said the former official, who remains close to the central bank. As much as 20 trillion yen of it could 'go abroad', he speculated, with the main impetus behind the outflows coming from financial institutions and business corporations.
An outflow of this size would be very significant since it would equal nearly twice Japan's annual current account surplus, one OECD official in Tokyo told The Business Times.
Gold has been one beneficiary from the tidal wave of liquidity in Japan. Japanese gold purchases during the January-March period were 3.5 times higher than their level a year earlier, according to the World Gold Council. Purchases of gold bullion amounted to 45 tonnes worth 65 billion yen in total during the period.
But while gold purchases in Japan remain at a high level (with prices rising accordingly), they still are absorbing only a tiny proportion of the total liquidity sitting in current accounts at major banks and in the postal savings system, or held in cash.
If as much as 20 trillion yen of this were to flow overseas, as suggested, this would boost very considerably the value of foreign securities held by Japanese financial institutions, companies and individuals and could have a marked impact upon a range of foreign assets from US Treasury bonds and euro bonds to major and emerging equity markets, analysts say.
In the first quarter of this year, some four trillion yen of Japanese funds flowed into overseas bond markets, according to the Ministry of Finance and while there were heavy repatriations just before the end of the final year, outflows are expected to pick up sharply again.
'Japan's external assets have swollen to record levels,' according to economist Tomoko Fujii at Nikko Salomon Smith Barney in Tokyo. 'The yen value of foreign assets outstanding climbed by 8 per cent to an all time high of just under 364 trillion yen in calendar 2001,' she says. This included more than 100 trillion yen of overseas loans by Japanese banks and also 'direct investment' in manufacturing and other business by Japanese companies, while the total value of overseas financial securities held reached just over 200 trillion yen.
YGM
(04/28/02; 17:01:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 74502)
Mr. Bill......
Thanks......
...for the link to this topic...I shall be up late again I fear. Nothing ventured, nothing gained, & time is well spent in these explorations of the financial netherworld.
To many facets of this NWO ideal being overlooked by the masses in denial.....Thanks....YGM.
Mr. Bill
(04/28/02; 16:49:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 74501)
@R Powell
All that you state may be very well and good, but it does not seem to have much relevance to the posts there. Maybe you did not read far enough. My take is that silver will be used in a sting operation. Both metals will be driven high. At a certain point silver will be delivered. This will cause a collapse of the price of both metals. And then only gold will be repurchased.
This whole thing is driven by a collapse of the US dollar and a need to draw in as much gold as possible by the instigators of this scheme. Silver is just the vehicle. It is irrelevant as to what silvers prospects would normally be.
Black Blade
(04/28/02; 16:33:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 74500)
Mexican gas demand may surge
http://www.gulf-news.com/Articles/news.asp?ArticleID=49062
Mexio City - Mexican natural gas demand is expected to grow 8 per cent annually by 2010, requiring output to rise by some 4.8 billion cubic feet per day (cfd) to meet that, Mexico's state oil monopoly Pemex said. "If we want to satisfy that demand with production we need to virtually double production in the decade," Horacio Guevara, a director at Pemex in charge of designing multiple service contracts, told a meeting of businessmen.
Mexico currently produces around 4.5 billion cfd a day of natural gas, he said, noting that natural gas output was only growing at 6 per cent on average each year. The 2 per cent difference between production and demand is made up with imports. Last year, Mexico imported 292.2 billion cfd, or around 11 per cent of its gas needs. Oil and gas exploration has lagged in Mexico in the past years due to a lack of investment.
Black Blade: Mexico imports the shortfall of NG from the United States. Mexican production increases are limited due to the need for NG injection to keep oil production steady. Mexico has already passed the Hubbert Peak oil production and relies on NG injection for continued oil production. So anyone who believes that Mexico can supply any NG supply to the United States during the next energy crisis is sadly mistaken. We are headed toward a version of the "Perfect Storm" for energy and the consequences for the economy are obvious.
darkhorse
(04/28/02; 16:13:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 74499)
Mr. Bill, re: R Powell's 74496
Like I said...
YGM
(04/28/02; 16:07:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 74498)
Horatio....Good News.
BARRICK??
If this new find is good news I would hope to think you meant that it gave you a window (of oportunity) to unload if you do indeed hold Barrick paper. Check the Lemetropole Cafe report today. Bill has a couple (5) negatives to pass on, re: the Altitude/Depth of Deposit etc......YGM.
YGM
(04/28/02; 15:56:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 74497)
The Tension in the Air is Electrifying........
The Goldrush of 2002 Will reverberate around the World........
...Websites, Analysts, Investment TV, Coffee Shops, Chat Groups, Financial Press, Executive Bars, Investment Reports, ...... you name it and Gold "IS" the main topic!
The holders, hunters, gatherers and advocates of Gold have arrived at the days of vindication. For those who lived in constant denial as we the few clung to our beliefs and kept open minds, I feel no sorrow. The abuse and ridicule heaped upon Gold Advocates has been mighty, and long endured! For some of us there's been great financial loss added to the mix. But no matter what the suffering or circumstance involved over the last few years, "I" for one (like many others) will look back with humility and pride on these past times. For it was such a time of renewal and learning. A time of pushing aside long held false ideals and attitudes and being privy to enlightenment from many great minds that have resided in these halls for so long and so selflessly educating. Thanks for the journey ladies & gentlemen it's been awesome, and the best is yet to come!
PS: Save some junk silver for the many new Hot-Dog and Sandwich Venders soon to be crowding the financial district in your City. "They won't have change for Gold!"....YGM.
"GO GATA, GO GOLD & GO PHYSICAL"
R Powell
(04/28/02; 15:14:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 74496)
Mr. Bill/ Endgame/ Silver Trules
Thanks for the link. I read some of Endgames essays and have some comments on "Silver Trules".
Endgame says "trules" is a combination of tools and rules and applies these to the current silver market. His thoughts are not historically correct concerning the 1979-1980 silver market but reflect the common misconception that the sons of H.L.Hunt, Nelson Bunker Hunt and William Herbert Hunt tried to corner the market. In reality the Hunts started accumulating silver about 1973 as did the House of Saud who were also long in 1979-1980 dealing with Norton Waltuch of ContiCommodity Services. There were also other huge long positions from other agents representing Mid-east interests.
As to the Hunts, they willingly agreed to offset for cash, roll over into distant delivery dates or exchange long positions for physical when asked by the CFTC. They agreed not to add to their long position when asked. They also terminated longs directly (exchange for physical) with Mocatta (big short) to relieve tensions on Comex. The Hunts went as far as to exchange for less than 99.9% acceptable silver. They were by no means attempting a corner but could not meet margin reguirements after the exchange greatly increased them and, also initiated a "liquidation-only" order on the market. This meant the only buying available (allowable) was from the selling from an established long position. This will sink ANY market. The Hunts did NOT corner the silver market, did NOT attempt to corner it and were themselves trapped by rule changes initiated by market regulators defending the shorts. Sound familar?
Endgame also speculates that silver has been accumulated over a length of time. Agreed, as with most any commodity, it's owned by someone. Endgame also states that silver is no longer money, just another commodity. This is his opinion, I disagree, but I see this as a mute point. Endgame does not but says that as silver is no longer money and further since digital photography is destroying that 40% of demand that supplies photography, silver now has less value. He further argues that the accumulaters now want to manipulate sentiment (price) upward in the silver market so that they can unload their long-time accumulated silver (since it is no longer money).
This arguement is hogwash. Silver did not become valueless just because the government no longer uses it for money (coins in circulation) or someone no longer considers it as money. It's three main uses, in coins and jewelry, in photography and as an industrial metal exist now and will continue to exist whether or not you or I think of silver as money or as a commodity.
Silver is not a transparent market but the best figures or most widely accepted come from Gold Fields Mineral Service once a year in the annual Silver Survey (due out next Month for calendar year 2001). These numbers show only a very slight decline in silver use in photography. The number of film using cameras in the world is increasing much faster than the number of film using cameras being retired from new digital camera buyers. In general, the demand for silver has been increasing yearly from the existing and ever growing uses for silver. A great deal of photographic silver use comes from photography that is not being replaced by digital such as in medical use.
Endgame now says that the hoarders of silver are trying to depress prices to slow new mining supply to create the right environment for a price run-up into which they can sell. This kind of market cycle is more the norm than unusual but I don't think it's silver hoarders trying to depress the POS. Most of those who have accumulated over many years are almost indifferent to the price as were the Hunts and the Saudis 22 years ago. They wanted physical. Many still do. Wealth preservation is not related to price movements for short, medium or long term gain. Wealth preservation is a hedge against currency valuation or, as Belgian says, the price and the value are not interchangeable terms.
Strangely enough, it was the government who helped arrange the loan so that the Hunts could cover their (inflated by rule changes) margin. The government's interest may have been not to disrupt by default a market in which the oil producing Middle East held long positions! Oil for gold? Yes. Oil for silver? Yes, again! Collateral for this Volcker arranged 1.1 billion dollar loan was arranged and the markets suffered only a scare, no real default. In fact, the POS bottomed above $11.00/ounce and quickly started upward again. Many of the long positions had been established well below $10.00/ounce.
Endgame sees the decline in photographic silver use as a "discontinuity" which he says is necessary for a price change. I've heard triggers called many things, even horsemen. Call it what you will, digital cameras are not going to cause a reduction in silver useage for many years (if at all!). Silver's use in energy transmittion in the near future may eclipse the current total photographic use. This is just one of the many emerging markets that will need silver.
Mr. Endgame's essay projects his opinion that the POS is heading lower but his arguement is only loosely based on facts of very questionable veracity. He would do well to read some history of the late 1979-1980 silver market and to also check the numbers (year over year) concerning silver use and photographic use in particular. His facts are incorrect and his arguement seems not much more than opinion based on these errors.
Happy weekend!
Rich
Horatio
(04/28/02; 15:14:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 74495)
Barrick
I've been away for a week and came back to good news..
UPDATE 3-Barrick unveils rich Peruvian gold find
(Adds Pierina comments paragraphs 13-15) By Scott Anderson
TORONTO, April 23 (Reuters) - Barrick Gold Corp. <ABX.TO> <ABX.N> said on Tuesday that
a $6 million investment in a remote property high in the mountains of Peru has netted it
one of its most significant gold discoveries of the past decade, helping it expand its
presence in South America.
Barrick Gold, the world's second-biggest gold producer, said on Tuesday the discovery at
its Alto Chicama property in north-central Peru could contain more than 3.5 million ounces
of gold.
"This is one of the most significant gold finds in the past decade and the most significant
grass-roots discovery in the history of Barrick," Randall Oliphant, the company's president
and chief executive, told Reuters.
The find could also kick-start development of Barrick's other properties in the area, giving
the already dominant gold miner more presence in the area.
What is even more satisfying for Barrick is that it won the property for what could be
considered spare change to a company that has more than $700 million in cash on hand.
Barrick has been exploring the property since early 2001 after it was the only bidder in a
tender by Centromin, the Peruvian state mining company.
The only financial commitment Barrick had to make was to agree to spend $6 million over
a three-year period and prepare a feasibility study for mine development. It has already
spent $3 million.
It must pay an additional $2 million and give Centromin a net smelter royalty of 2.5
percent over the life of the mine.
"The deal was set up in such a way that you had to spend exploration dollars to earn the
interest. If we didn't find anything, we were going to walk from it," Alex Davidson,
Barrick's senior vice-president of exploration, told a news conference.
"We felt good about it and of the potential of the property. We felt good about the area.
We were prepared to take a punt and pleased that we were the only bidders."
SIXTY HOLES DRILLED SO FAR
Barrick said it will increase its 2002 exploration and development program for Alto
Chicama to $20 million from $5 million.
The discovery is about 175 km (105 miles) north of its Pierina property, a low-cost
producer.
In Lima, Pierina Managing Director Igor Gonzales told reporters Pierina's production was
expected to fall to 820,000 ounces this year, from 911,000 ounces in 2001, because of
lower-grade ores.
"However, this forecast could change. Last year, we were expecting 870,000 ounces and
we finished the year with 911,000," he said. Pierina has reserves of 4 million ounces with
an average grade of 2.4 grams per tonne and production costs of $70 per ounce, he said,
adding the company expected to invest $2 million in Pierina this year.
"For the moment, in Chicama we have drilled 60 holes but we still have more to do,"
Gonzales said. "Although, as far as we can see, it is an oxides deposit similar to Pierina
which is good from the point of view of ease of treatment."
In 2001, Pierina produced 911,000 ounces of gold at a cost of $40 an ounce.
Mr. Bill
(04/28/02; 14:08:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 74494)
@darkhorse
Now that you have the proper perspective, maybe you should look again.
pdeep
(04/28/02; 13:43:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 74493)
Level playing fields
Mr Gresham, "cui bono" pretty much sums it up. I had some hope that Howe's lawsuit would proceed, but then again I have been accused of being an optimist. As a prudent invostor, it became clear a long time ago that the playing field was not level, and I adjusted accordingly. But it was a real eye opener to realize (thanks to some informed analysis such as found on this forum) that it went further than that, because the possibility of long-term preservation of wealth in dollars is not possible, that the people "entrusted" to manage the paper medium of exchange are just as sociopathic as the likes of Fastow and Lay. The idea that the US money system, such as it exists, has been used to decimate not only the US economy, but the economies of a large nujmber of other countires, required some time for me to accept. We've gone from having a dynamic industrial base that turned natural resources into products, to a nation of consumer and service heads that have to import almost everything in daily use. The computer I'm writing this from, the car I drove this afternoon, the clothes I wear, the list is endless. The very same crooks have engaged in time-travel robbery, stealing value from the future (how much is our public and private debt?), from those not even born yet. What should have been a mild, steady deflation with wages slipping at a slower rate than prices, due to technological advances, has been turned into a monetary inflation unique in economic history. To slip into the vulgate, I'm extremely pissed off. I'll withstand the coming storm, but when I compare what probably will unfold, to what could have been if we had not given the banks away to the gangsters, the rage intensifies. And as you point out, the gangsters will never be called on to make amends. Even if they were called on it, which as you point out is highly unlikely, there's not enough real wealth in world to accomplish that.
Old Yeller
(04/28/02; 13:17:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 74492)
More on the "recovery"
http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=26042002-050404-9542r
Not very healthy looking,especially the increases of government largesse.When Bush was elected,George Ure immediately dubbed him "Herbert Hoover Bush".
Of course,that was well before the "War on Terrorism",which neatly dovetails with Bush and his father's business interests.In retrospect,the immediate increases in stock prices of defense industries following Bush's election looks all the more suspect.
tedw
(04/28/02; 13:04:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 74491)
Cusac gold
Any informantion on Cusac Gold (CUSIF) greatly appreciated.
slingshot
(04/28/02; 12:28:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 74490)
Crossroads
Reflection.
Will tomorrows POG exceed the initial price at which I first started buying? Compared to some at this forum my ride to the bottom, $255.00 was short lived. My window of opportunity is closing but during this time I was able to aquire some insurance against the possible bad times ahead.
As always a Thank You to USAGOLD and to all, past and present posters. More important is the Why for my thank you.
USAGOLDs Forum, is the most informative. The dedication of individuals to post the most up to date information from around the globe concerning Gold , is second to none. Our Host has sponsored contests and opened his vaults just to hear our opinions and is most tolerant when we venture into off topics. May I add we should not take advantage of his
patience. I can only guess what it takes to put a website together, but I can see what it takes to make it work.
That makes all the difference.
The wheels of the goldrush are picking up speed. In the near future the posts of the $311.00 gold will be history.
I am looking forward to reading USA's Archives with a big smile.
Slingshot-----------------<>
Mr Gresham
(04/28/02; 12:24:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 74489)
pdeep, A Canadian
A Canadian: "Bring it on Greenie, you can't hurt me. " That's gotta be our one-liner of the day!
pdeep -- that was a great overview, returning wisely to the perpetual legal question "qui bono" -- who benefitted from the crime(s)? Making them the most likely suspects, unindictable, of course.
And they'll get away with most of their real assets intact -- homes in several countries, PMs (almost wrote PMS -- they can have that, too ;), ownership of businesses that own productive assets and will continue, boats and cars, etc. etc.
Their paper losses will be proportionately less ("just part of playing the game") while other simpler folk will have lost proportionately more -- suitable employment, pensions, education savings, etc. (Wait till the middle-class hunger/starvation stories arrive from Argentina. Dress rehearsal for our own...)
pdeep
(04/28/02; 10:38:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 74488)
Nailed to the cross of an over-valued dollar
http://www.cepr.net/columns/weisbrot/trade_deficit_driven_by_bad_policy.htm
I had been thinking about the forces which have come into play over the past few years to supress the price of gold, and maintain a relative over-valuation of the dollar. The answer can be found in "follow the money." Thanks to the Web, I found this link which serves as a good reality test, mirroring some of my thoughts. A plutocracy of the rich, with the likes of JPM and GS at the helm, wrapped themselves in the the flags of of "Free trade" and "Open markets" while at the same time engaging in currency and gold manipulation which would have caused Adam Smith apoplexy. Who benefits from an over-valued dollar and therefore the under-valuation of the only absolute currency, gold? Multinationals corporations, since they can buy foreign assets assets and labor at bargain prices, move production facilities abroad, sell products back into the country at a virtual discount, causing further contraction of what is left of our manufacturing concerns. Financiers, like JPM and GS, reap the benefits of high rates of return of dollar-denominated loans from countries whose currencies are pegged to the dollar price, and when those cuntries (like Argentina) devolve, they can move in and buy assets at discount values. A wrecked economy is just another opportunity, and they know that those foreign loans will be paid back, thanks to the maniupulations of the IMF. Meanwhile, holders of US bonds, and GSE's like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac enjoy the benefits of relative low interest rates, inducing US consumers to refinance, borrow, and increase their debt to historic levels. Meanwhile, the same financiers enjoyed the wonderful carry trades, where yen and gold are borrowed, and the proceeds reinvested in higher interest rate dollar based paper. The losers are the millions of Americans who lost manufacturing jobs as they moved to countries like Mexico, and the American economy as a whole, whose only major real products are in the high tech sector, which through a combination of artificially low interest interest rates and dollar bubble induced mania now have so much overcapacity that it will literally take years for supply and demand to come into balance. Finally, those investors who believed in the hype of Wall street and invested money in the tech markets only to watch it vaporize or end up in the pockets of the insider hucksters.
The good news is that the dollar currency / gold manipulation is unraveling, and we're witnessing the first visible (to the majority of investors here and abroad) cracks in the system, though participants in this forum have known about it for a long time, thanks to A and FOA's warnings, and have hopefully prepared themselves. The bad news is that when the dollar finally crashes, the value will have been skimmed by the rich financiers and insiders. It will cause tremendous pain and dislocation, as all discover the reality that the house of the dollar was built on the quicksand of fiat. I hope that it is not free markets and free trade that become the scapegoats, since they have never existed, and if they did, could never have resulted in this disaster, but that the real culprits, a la Enron, will be brought to an accounting, from the Federal Reserve and US Treasury, Rubin, Greenspan and Sommers, to the rich houses on Wall street. Maybe some populist genius will emerge (Ron Paul?) who can concisely frame the manipulation and corruption so that it is understood and acted on by the majority.... Thanks to all for your informative posts over the years, to MK for providing a forum and golden life preservers, and to the readers who suffered through this rant!
shades
(04/28/02; 10:21:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 74487)
a lesson in semantics re butler response
It would seem that if the federal reserve can bypass a constitutional decree that no STATE shall print money ( or words to that effect) why cant the same method be used to force the CFTC to divulge the business transactions or market positions (sec a 1 ) of any CONGLOMERATE that is forcing silver manipulation and not Person as described in the section. What is the CFTC telling us in this section? FWIW
A Canadian
(04/28/02; 09:41:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 74486)
The Tide is Turning.....
Alarm-radio woke me yesterday at 5:30 am (to face my tanking contracting business) and low and behold the first thing to greet me was an interview with a GOLD ANALYST!!(some putz from Mitsubishi). A stupid grin spread across my face at the realisation of the impending stampede on the horizon. Although mainstream coverage tends to be out to lunch, the fact that it finally exists is great.
With major SM indices still on schedule to correct further down and with real estate and the U.S. dollar not far behind,investors are being forced to face the reality (while kicking and screaming)that a radical change in wealth preservation strategy is the only "safe haven".
I have tried to help many stockmarket casualties in the past year with talk of gold...was usually received with incredulous looks...might as well have been speaking about Roswell New Mexico!...but not anymore! now at least they listen (but still don't move while waiting for the herd to confirm the obvious.) The markets are speaking for themselves and soon all will have no choice but to listen. The tide is turning indeed...
Many thanks from this lazy lurker who HAS been listening and frantically constructing his own FORT KNOX. Bring it on Greenie, you can't hurt me. ( Is there any way to digitally send a couple of pitchers of mead to the round table?)
SteveH
(04/28/02; 09:13:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 74485)
Any lawyers out there?
Below is a letter to Mr. Butler from CTFC. Correct me if I am wrong, but a Writ of Mandamus could be filed against the CTFC for failure to investigate. The Court can ensure they do investigate, but not the finding of the investigation. Failure of a public officical whose task it is to investigate alleged violation of law, is itself violating its charter. A court could order it to use its discretion, not what the discretion is. If sufficient evidence was provided to a court, the court could order the CTFC to exercise its discretion. Failure on the part of the CTFC to look into or use its discretion can be a cause of court action against the CTFC, no?
Mr. Butler...
The CFTC's Reply of April 12, 2002, And My Response
April 12, 2002
Dear Mr. Butler:
This is in response to your letters of February 12, March 11, March 25, April 1, and April 8, 2002 in which you alleged an "ongoing manipulation in the Commodity Exchange, Inc. (COMEX) silver contract." You cite as evidence a concentration in net short positions by 4 or less traders that you believe "defies economic justification." Your allegation would potentially involve violations of Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commission) and Exchange rules prohibiting price manipulation.
The Commodity Exchange Act makes it unlawful to manipulate or attempt to manipulate the market price of any commodity in interstate commerce, or for future delivery on or subject to the rules of any contract market. In order to prove a manipulation, it must be shown that a trader intentionally caused the price of a commodity to become artificial or, in other words, intentionally moved the price of a commodity away from a level reflecting the legitimate forces of supply and demand.
Thank you for the information contained in your letters. As to your suggestion that the Commission should disclose the identity of traders, Section 8(a)(1) of the Commodity Exchange Act provides that the "Commission may not publish data and information that would separately disclose the business transactions or market positions of any person."
I hope this information is helpful to you.
Sincerely,
William C. Kokontis
Acting Director
Market Surveillance Section
The Honorable James E. Newsome April 22, 2002
Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Washington DC 20581 VIA FAX and E-MAIL
Dear Chairman Newsome:
Thank you for the response of April 12, 2002, from your new Acting Director of Market Surveillance, Mr. William C. Kokontis, to my five (5) letters concerning the ongoing manipulation in the Commodity Exchange, Inc.(COMEX) silver contract, by the 4 or less traders with the uneconomically large and concentrated net short position.
Since this is the first response I have ever received from your agency that didn't refute my allegations about this ongoing manipulation, nor disagree with the information I provided, I understand that you now see the problem and intend to act upon it. Hooray and Hallelujah. I wish you luck in rooting out and punishing the perpetrators of this manipulation.
According to your most recently released Commitment of Traders Report (COT), of April 19, 2002, for positions held as of April 16, 2002, the 4 or less concentrated shorts have succeeded in reducing their net short position by some 6000 contracts, or 30 million ounces of silver, in the sell-off in silver prices they have engineered over the past two weeks. This is just as I predicted, and as has occurred on a regular basis for years. Real hedgers don't trade such quantities on a 20 cents per ounce move, only manipulators do. Of course, the 4 or less traders are still net short over 183 million ounces of silver futures, much more than when I first wrote to you.
If you investigate fully, you will see that the dominant commercial net short position holders have actually increased their net short position dramatically in percentage terms, compared to the entire commercial net short position. In the two weeks in which the manipulators reduced their absolute net short position, the concentrated net short position of the 4 or less traders increased from under 72% of the total net commercial short position, to over 85% of the total commercial net short position. This is an unprecedented concentration.
Regarding my suggestion that the Commission disclose the identity of very concentrated position holders in all regulated markets - I knew it was in contrast to current law when I made the suggestion. But I also know that the Commission is continuously working with Congress to update and improve the code. There is no good reason for you not to try and implement my suggestion, as the markets are clamoring for more disclosure and transparency.
I am grateful and encouraged that the Commission finally recognizes this problem, and I await your follow-through. The American silver mining industry faces bankruptcy and extinction due the unlawful activities of the manipulators. Only your forceful and immediate action can save it.
Respectfully yours,
Ted Butler
EagleOne
(04/28/02; 08:52:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 74484)
Black Blade Msg. #74479 et al
I thank you and my family thanks you for your relentless pursuit and presentation of the reality of *cheap energy*.
And of course thanks to our host for giving you the opportunity.
darkhorse
(04/28/02; 08:39:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 74483)
@Mr. Bill
Common sense, wise counsel and knowing how to use the brains God gave me.
Boilermaker
(04/28/02; 08:19:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 74482)
Hydro
Many thanks for yesterday's correction of my misuse of the word proscribe vs. prescribe. You are correct that I did mean prescribe.
Rock
(04/28/02; 08:11:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 74481)
Great read Artic Fox
I really enjoyed those reads Bill. Thanks for the enlightening data.
Sir Rock
Mr. Bill
(04/28/02; 08:04:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 74480)
@darkhorse
Perhaps you could post the prescription used for your lenses. Then maybe we all could see things from the same perspective.
Black Blade
(04/28/02; 04:15:05MT - usagold.com msg#: 74479)
Don't Count On Canadian Natural Gas
http://hubbert.mines.edu/
The new Hubbert Peak newletter (pdf file) reveals that NG production in Canada is nearly hit the wall. Increasing domestic demand and static to declining production means less available NG for the US. Don't count on Mexico either. Mexico imports NG from Texas now and demand is increasing. It is also now known that NG in the Athabasca Tar Sands will soon go into decline (2003) as it is used to process synfuels. T
he decline rate for domestic US NatGas has increased to 24% and in some areas (such as the Powder River Basin, WY) it is as high as 29%. Most of the large NG fields are are over 20 years old and are in serious decline. Nearly all new fields are smaller, deeper, or are non-conventional sources with higher decline rates.
Many suggest that the large inventory in storage is cause for celebration, however, the increase is due to warm weather, deepening economic recession, and several new storage facilities for new power NG-fired power plants. 275 new and planned NG-fire power plants are scheduled to be online over the next 5 years as older coal and oil-fired power plants are retired.
The drought in the east and midwest will mean much of hydroelectric supply will not be available this year, several Nuclear power plants are scheduled for extended maintenance, and fewer "carbon credits" are available for coal-fired power plants. If the NOAA is correct in their projections then we may have a hot summer and that means more electricity demand as air conditioners are fired up. Add to all this the fact that there is less exploration and production of NG in the US this year. We just may see a repeat of the California energy crisis late this year. In other words, scratch on US economic recovery and plan on a deeper economic recession.
- Black Blade
Hipplebeck
(04/28/02; 03:31:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 74478)
Placer Dome in on the Venezuela coup.
http://www.vheadline.com/0204/11992.asp
Attempt to control Las Cristanis
Belgian
(04/28/02; 03:14:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 74477)
1970 >>> 2002
Having studied the statistical charts (long term) on display in the contraryinvestor's archives...inspired to some conclusions :
The charts of ALL macro-economic data of past 30 years do show 2 very distinct periods : 1970 to 1980 (I) and 1980 and present (II).
I / Ten years of expansion. Year on year Growth, nominal + real. 1970 > 1980 was the culminative result of policy-options taken during the sixties. 1971 POG exploded (x 25).
II/ 1980 was the year where lots of all time highs were registered and the global managers realised that ALL economical policies had the effect of running things out of hand. They decided to change dramatically. They wanted ANOTHER kind of *growth* (and expansion)! A more genuine and sustainable growth ? A more disciplined expansion ?
POG was *used* and confirmed the policies that were decided on.
Today we start realising that both periods (I and II) are nothing more than *periods*, where homo economicus has been experimenting with the up until now, known, economic policy options. And both systems don't work to our satisfaction.
Both lead to deathpoints.
The reason for this is simple : We always want to grow too fast and much too unbalanced. Therefore a lot of artificiality needs to be build into the system. Too much management, over-engeneering to be compared with artificial insemination.
Much More than 25 trillion $ (last know total Bond-Debt) were necessary to arrive at a global GDP (nominal or real) of 40 trillion $. Now we are reaching another ATH with 5 $ on debt for each 1 $ of GDP expansion ! Very close to another deathpoint (surely not the last one).
Period *I* was inflationary growth, period *II* is/was deflationary growth...period *III* will go HYPERINFLATIONARY WITH DESTRUCTION in anticipation of a new set of economic policies/options to be started from ground zero. Global economy has to land (crash) and can't be refueled in the air whilst flying. The floating (flying) currency and Debt parts of the economic jumbo need complete overhaul/replacement. Hyperinflation is the diving trajectory of the plane.
This is exactly what GOLD has been waiting for ! Gold will be related to currencies and trade settlements in yet another fashion as the ones that preceded during the past milleniums. Gold will remain *ABSOLUTE* and everything else will remain "relative" to it. Ready to withdraw this statement, immediately, as soon as anyone can come up with another absolute (tangible) to wich can be refered to relativate everything else of Value. Gold is not oil !!!
Gold is NOT consumed. Even land/water/air, can become worthless when intoxicated.
Gold has been put on reserve (not sacked/discarded) for the past 20 years and will soon be re-employed for that same old job it has been doing for millenia. THE ABSOLUTE VALUATOR OF ALL RELATIVES !
Old Yeller
(04/28/02; 03:05:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 74476)
Fresh out of miracles,how about some more debt?
http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm
The recovery being trumpeted loudly throughout the land is dubious at best.
The authorities continue their deception of the American people at their own peril.Some of the charts presented here
of the true pictures of Mr.G's quaintly termed "imbalances",are frightening.
How does one gently lower the value of the dollar,while at the same time attract $400 billion of offshore savings to reconcile the books.Meanwhile,interest rates must stabilize or fall to keep consumers and companies solvent.Next,fund
massive government spending and contemplate going to war because someone is deemed to be dangerous to world peace.
Someone is dangerous all right,dangerously ambiguous,dangerously deceptive and definitely dangerous to world peace and prosperity.
Black Blade
(04/28/02; 02:56:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 74475)
Avgold in currency double-whammy
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B242256BA500622810?OpenDocument
Snippit:
JOHANNESBURG – Avgold [JSE:AVG], the listed gold producing subsidiary of South African mining house Anglovaal Mining [JSE:AIN], enjoyed a thin 2.4 percent increase in average gold sales compared to the 20 percent improvement if could have received had the gold company been unhedged. In contrast, the depreciation of the rand and the improvement in the dollar gold price is likely to improve gross revenue for South Africa's other gold producers by leaps and bounds when the balance report their March quarterly operating and financial figures. Durban Roodepoort Deep reports tomorrow (25 May), but it's Gold Fields and Harmony Gold that will really show the benefits of being unhedged.
The mark-to-market value of the hedge book was a negative R1.2 billion at a gold price of roughly $303 per ounce. At today's price, testing about $305 per ounce, Avgold's opportunity losses will have deepened. "The negative value of the book represents an opportunity loss which is continuing to be actively managed," the company said. Having to hedge production has taken the gloss off Avgold's Target gold mine. That's a bit hard on Avgold, since the company had no choice but to commit to hedging as a covenant to bank debt. Only months later the dollar gold price picked up its head. But who knew?
Black Blade: Hedging is taking down another hedge fund miner. It was inevitable. It is obvious why hedge fund miners (such as AngloGold, Ashanti, Cambior, Durban, etc.) are bailing out of forward sold positions. Many hedge fund miners are under water on their hedge books. The day of the hedger is over.
Black Blade
(04/28/02; 02:37:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 74474)
U.S. stocks suffer worst week since September
http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/020427/01b427b5d8724e2d160bc8dda6190473_1.html
Snippit:
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Stocks suffered their most disastrous week since late September, with the Nasdaq down 7.4 percent, the Dow off 3.4 percent and the broad S&P 500 down 4.4 percent. You'd never tell from the 5.8 percent gain in first-quarter GDP that investors are worried about the state of the economy. But worried they are. The crux of the problem lies in the fact that the bulk of the economic growth is coming from the rebuilding of inventories -- and not from new business investment. And if consumers waver and companies don't start ramping up spending plans soon, inventories will begin to retrench once again and produce a relapse into recession.
Black Blade: The US is still in Recession and will likely remain in a deepening Recession. US equities are grossly overvalued and corporate earnings have failed to materialize. The consumer and corporate America are burdened with record levels of crushing debt. There is no choice expect to accept the fact that the markets must fall to reasonably priced levels. When the S&P 500 sports a "actual" (not operating earnings) PE of about 60, the index is overvalued by more than 4 times a reasonable historical PE valuation, and that is when the outlook suggests earnings growth going forward – not like now when earnings warnings common. I would expect that soon the markets will dive and frightened investors search for alternative investments or wealth preservation. One of those alternative sectors of course is Gold.
Black Blade
(04/28/02; 02:17:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 74473)
The dollar's precarious perch
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3D5FJDI0D&live=true
Snippit:
So long predicted yet so elusive, the prospect of a significant fall in the US dollar is exciting currency markets again. Since it began to rise in 1995 the greenback has looked vulnerable to speculative attack but year after year it has proved immune.
Triggers for a dollar decline - the enduring Japanese trade surplus, the launch of the euro, the US recession - have come and gone. None has impeded its steady rise against the currencies of the US's trading partners.
That should not come as a great surprise: forecasting short-term currency movements has always been a mug's game. That the dollar has defied gravity for so long does not invalidate the view that it is overvalued. It simply means we cannot predict when it will fall. But fall it almost certainly will, for the US has spent more than it has earned for the past six years.
Sorry performance
US equity returns this year have performed worse than those in other industrial countries' markets; this sorry performance has not been mitigated by a rising dollar; fears regarding the fragility of US corporate profits in spite of high productivity growth have been realised; and US equities remain highly valued against all usual benchmarks.
If sufficient capital flows are not forthcoming, any dollar decline will be far from limited or orderly. Portfolio investment flows pushed the dollar ever higher. These can reverse just as quickly. If they did, dollar investments would perform considerably worse than equivalent assets elsewhere, redoubling any flight from the greenback.
Moreover, there is no doubt that the dollar would have to decline significantly to bring the US current account back close to balance. With exports representing just about 10 per cent of GDP, the US would need to increase their volume by 40 per cent to eliminate its 4 percentage point current account gap. But as it is by far the largest economy in the world, such a change would require a significant drop in US export prices - so the real increase in exports required would have to be larger and hence the dollar fall bigger. The same logic would apply, were the adjustment to take place via reduced imports.
Black Blade: The USD is falling and if it should fall rapidly as it should, then we could see the POG rocket higher. The conditions are ripe for a collapse in the USD. The strong dollar policy has hurt many US businesses and imports are so much cheaper and therefore displace similar domestic goods. The strong US dollar also hurts domestic businesses as the can not compete in foreign markets. As the article points out, US equities are grossly overvalued and these equities markets are falling causing Trillions of dollars of investor wealth to vanish into the ether. I would expect that the USD will fall in tandem as the markets continue to crash. The future looks "Golden".
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