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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 12/28/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

a nation of one (12/28/02; 21:49:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 92845)
Re: R Powell (12/28/02; 20:28:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 92840)

You ask: "...may I quote you?"

--Yes.



Topaz (12/28/02; 21:27:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 92844)
A Thousand Pieces of Gold.
My most novel Xmas present this Year came with the greeting Card: to TOPAZ....from ANOTHER! (someone in the Family has a good sense of humour)
The Book outlines a thousand? "Old Chinese Proverbs" and translates same into English....an interesting insight and required reading as we move into the future.
One that didn't make the cut RPowell was: "Wherever Italian blood flows, so too does Concrete"

Thanks for the response mikal.

ax (12/28/02; 21:19:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 92843)
(No Subject)
Increase of U.S. Gold Reserves


Increase of U.S. Gold Reserves


12-24-02

Why would it be

inconceivable that the Fed /. Treasury might wish to add to
the

gold reserves of the United States during this period?


As short term rates tend toward zero, and money supply
exponentially

expands, both as a means of reviving the economy, could not
the

financial stabilization of a rising gold price be
accompanied by

outright purchases of gold by the fed?


There would be a capture of some of the value in a rising
gold price,

not only by the 8000 tons of gold already in the U.S.
Treasury, but

also by the number of tons the U.S. gold reserves are
increased

by purchase. As an opposite position, England finds itself
with

half the reserve gold tonnage it had just a few short years
ago,

and no prospects for reaccumulating this lost wealth.


The U.S. Treasury could buy on the open market, buy from
other

CB's who wish to sell ( such as Switzerland), buy directly
from

gold dealers within the U.S., and make arrangements to

purchase

in bulk the output of domestic mines ( those physically

located

within the U.S. ).


AX



R Powell (12/28/02; 20:46:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 92842)
Spelling and typing
The computer between my ears is growing increasingly weary and tiredness will now serve as an excuse for my recent rash of spelling mistakes. I apologize and will now place myself in sleep mode. Goodnight all.
FWIW, I view the rising POG as just begun, downturns may be shallow (no more than 50% of uptrends) and POS will catch up, at the latest before gold hits $400.
I agree entirely with a nation of one that POG will enter mania stage at some point before this dreadful political and economic situation fully evolves into anything resembling even temporary resolution. (Resolution Trust?) I'm scaring myself. Bedtime!
Rich

slingshot (12/28/02; 20:44:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 92841)
a nation of one
So many variables.

Thank you.
Slingshot--------------------<>

R Powell (12/28/02; 20:28:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 92840)
a nation of one
Thanks (92835). That's the only explanation of those terms I've ever read that makes sense to me.

I'll now have to alter my opinions and say that overbought and oversold are misleading names for saturated markets that have, momentarily at least, halted their trend movement. There are still misleading terms in that they convey an imbalance in either bought or sold positions which never exists. Do the terms simply describe which direction a market has been trending during a pause or was gold overbought at $340 during it's recent advance from the $320s to $350s?

I like your explanation. If I ever finish my book on acquiring trading knownledge, may I quote you?
Rich

a nation of one (12/28/02; 20:10:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 92839)
the pog and the dow

There is reason to think that the DOW could go below 800 and that the price of gold could end up somewhere around 6000, or higher. For instance, it is a fair guide that bubbles end lower than they started. That by itself could make 800 for the DOW a realistic figure. And fundamentals will only contribute to this. Especially if interest rates go up, stocks may more than stumble. As concerns gold, it all depends on how strongly people can be made to feel that gold is worth six thousand. If the worst happens, say, consumer sales dry up completely, numerous really big companies go belly up, millions of people can't get jobs, war really does occur and not favorably, worse terrorism takes place in the U.S., the functions of both private business and government become increasingly crippled by 'security measures,' oatmeal starts costing three dollars a pound, then five, then ten, gold will have a hard time staying below six thousand. And don't forget that those who manipulate are very accomplished at manipulating and will work to influence prices in ways that benefit themselves. If JPM Chase gets its hands on a lot of gold, or gold contracts, they won't be the only ones who percieve an intererst in expensive gold. They will come up with a way to make the price of gold reach astronomical levels. And for them, morals will not stand in the way.

R Powell (12/28/02; 19:58:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 92838)
SilverHoard

"Many say that silver will rise on gold's coattails."

In the fine print in the silver Comex market there is a stipulation that the market can be limited on a monthly basis concerning deliverable physical. I'm guessing from a questionable memory that the number might be 7.5 million ounces. Physical takeoff is very small but is available if wanted. I'm guessing that by the time the Comex stores and current day by day production are the only remaining sources, the real deficit and low remaining supply secret will be front page commodity news and then the gold headlines may say....

"Many say that gold will rise on silver's coattails."

Off the wall prediction...
when the POG and Dow are close to equal,
then the POS and the Nasdoggie may be too.

May your hoard expand like watered gremlins!

slingshot (12/28/02; 19:46:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 92837)
Things that go up.
Must come down.
When two ounces of gold buys one DOW, the Dow being 5000,what price will Gold fall to and stabilize. Would it be the usual retracement pecentage say 50-60%. I do not see gold going below $300.00 again with the world in caution mode.

Food for thought. The fear index will increase with each US Carrier Battle Group put to sea.
Slingshot--------------<>

R Powell (12/28/02; 19:45:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 92836)
Cavan Man
Good evening to you and yes, I heartedly agree that game, set, match are over. There are simply too many economic forces, that can not be restrained, than will lift the POG and, perhaps, most all real commodities. I am most partial to the negative real dollar denominated assets return. I also like the stocks stink, bond yields blow, the world is bankrupt so... I better buy gold.

Your Rousseau quote quote is good. I always try to remember how Jesse Livermore spoke of not only the unknown, but the unknowable which once cost him a fortune in coffee. I still have some dry powder (trading funds) as I'm more uncertain or unsure now that we see the beginnings of a real gold (and hopefully silver) bull market. Livermore's warning or cold feet? However, I'm also more exposed than usual, to the upside, of course, but this greatly increses risk. You physical only guys have it easy! But, what's the trill of a sure thing?

I agree with you and sector (if your interpretation of his words are correct) that no one can stop higher tangible prices and especially higher POG. I'm wondering about sector's opinion of the Fed pushing the POG higher and how that will resolve with the oh, so many calls for financial meltdown from unwindable derivatives positions?
Myself, I suspect they have all been hedged as necessary long ago or along the way and that whatever amount of central bank gold has been leased and however settled, it is mostly a matter of fiat balances on settlement accounts. Only this, and nothing more. But, there are many who know and understand much more than I so we continue to watch...
Beware the unknown and unknowables!
Thanks
Rich

a nation of one (12/28/02; 19:24:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 92835)
overbought and oversold

R Powell says: "I'm always suspect of the terms overbought or oversold in any market as the number of long contracts has to equal the number sold. If the commercial and speculative players in silver are both there primarily for monetary gain or to prevent monetary loss (as opposed to making or accepting delivery), then the idea of one group being extremely long or short loses significance, no?"

--One thing that makes these terms valid is that the seller and buyer do not both simultaneously initiate all transactions. Some are initiated by the buyer, others by the seller. On up trends, buyers tend to initiate more of the actions; on down trends, the sellers. Generally speaking, when all the people wanting to buy at a particular price have bought, then fewer purchases can be expected at that price. But a liquid market means there are many potential participants, and that implies there will almost always be buyers, though not at every price. When the price comes down a little, then less aggressive buyers will buy. So when a market is said to be overbought, all it means is that all the buyers at a particular price have already bought, and fewer purchases can be expected at that level. During bubbles, it typically happens that in order to obtain extremely high prices, new buyers will be brought in. This happened in the recent stock bubble, when ordinary workers were persuaded, over a very long period of time, to invest heavily in stocks. The point was reached at which ordinary people, knowing nothing about stocks, greedily put everything they could into stocks, not understanding that stocks do not go up forever. These individuals, who exist in large numbers and who therefore represent very vast amounts of money, blindly bet on their meagre understanding, and they are the ones who stay in long after experienced -and presumably knowledgeable- traders have gotten out. It is they who are still in the stock market now, many of them. And it is they who will be routed out as stock prices go to levels so low that even they cannot ignore what it means. It is these people whose dollars go to make up the largest gains, as they come into the various markets, and it is they who suffer the greatest losses. The gold market has not yet achieved the interest of these masses. And the media can be seen very clearly delaying their entry, by means of managed news, such as is complained of here on this forum as being unreal, as in the case of CNBC and CNN and so on. It is by this means that the common public are convinced to act when they do act, to invest their money when it is most in the interest of the strongest traders for them to do so, and it is they who do not see, without clear and obvious help, those indicators which signal others to get out. At some point, all those whose money is not yet lost will be the object of powerful emotional manipulation, in the form of 'gold fever,' which is just another name for greed, and many of them will start buying gold, not this year, and not next year, but down the road a bit. We won't be involved in this, but others will be. As they swarm in, the charts will become more vertical. But it will not last, and those, such as ourselves, who will not be greedy and who will get out on the way up, at that time, will come out alright. It will be those who want to greedily sieze the very last cent, and those who think that it will go up forever and stay up, who will lose. And it will be their money that the most knowledgeable traders will gain and run away with.

Goldfly (12/28/02; 19:19:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 92834)
Sovereign, maybe this will help you.....
http://www.ecb.int/pub/legal/escbstatutes_en.pdf
I haven't plumbed it as I find the ECB site consumately dry, but I did dig this up.


Cavan Man (12/28/02; 19:03:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 92833)
Hi Rich
I too am looking forward to sector's response as I am hiding in the basement away from the reading of Jane Eyre for the sake of my three girls (what's a guy to do?). First, a quote:

"The ability to see that some things cannot be forseen is a very necessary quality."

Rousseau

Your question about the short positions is a good one. IMHO, I believe the metrics sector points to indicate an unsustainable bias against a rise in POG under any circumstances. sector apparently believes (and his data seems to indicate) that the side keeping the opposing scorecard has lost game, set and match. For myself, I believe rabbits can always be pulled out of a hat if the magician has the skill.

I digress....If the match is lost then and bullion is needed, there are three methods of acquiring AU:

1. Buy gold mines as AG suggested the FED could do.
2. Negotiate a higher price of gold to coax sales from the market.
3. FED buys gold bullion from over and under the counter markets.

POG rises in #'s 1,2 and 3.

The fallen and falling USD leaves little room for "jiggling". I do think they've hit a wall. Back up thy truck. Shalom 'bro...CM

SilverHoard (12/28/02; 18:53:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 92832)
All that Silver
It's great to read all the comments and queston re silver tonite. For the physical silver holders here, the question of availability is as close as your nearest dealer. My physicial of choice is junk silver and it is very limited. The spot price means nothing if there is none available. One day someone is going to want to take possesion on their futures contract and then the truth will be out. Many will say that silver will rise on gold's coattails. Silver will spike when the availabilty situation is made clear.
SILVER get it while you can.

R Powell (12/28/02; 18:48:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 92831)
Sector
From your last post...

"They must set a gold price mechanism far higher than it is today in order to attract metal from consumers back into the physical market to try and stop the central bank metallic losses."

Help! I believe the "they" in your statement refers to the Fed. mentioned in the previous sentence. But, I'm confused again. So many have been for so long shouting that "they" have been desperately and intentionally keeping the POG under lock and key. The ESF, PPT, Rubin, Greenspan, and any number of brokerages (JPM/C and Goldman Sacks) in cooperation with all forms of powers-that-be and even would be New World Orders have been hammering the POG for fear of their lives...so the story has gone. Sinclair has even called for major currency disruptions and/or bankruptcies if/when POG hit $354. Now you say "they" must set a gold price mechanism far higher? Am I wrong in interpreting this as "they" must raise the POG? Whatever happened to the short position derivatives meltdown?

My fundamental trading outlook and analysis does not and never did equal the deep thinkers past and present that speak here but, can you explain, in simple terms, this seeming sudden reversal of the purposed intentions of the forces (powers-that-be). I understand that deflation scares the Fed. more than inflation (which they have been practicing and exporting for years) but, if they are now actively supporting a higher POG, what of Sinclair's (and many others') predicted financial Armageddon? Have the shorts all been sufficiently offset or hedged? Why is it now safe for POG to rise?
Thanks,
Rich

R Powell (12/28/02; 18:14:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 92830)
Silver fundamentals and Comex


I've another pet theory about the fundamentals of silver and Comex trading.
My theory is that there aren't a whole lot of analysts and/or traders who have any idea of the supply/demand situation of silver. Further, many of them can not get past the idea that the market is not reflecting the continuing deficit situation but is only reflecting the composite opinion of all market players. As Livermore liked to say, "Markets aren't wrong, opinions are." Many deny that the situation that we see exists because, they reason, if it did prices would have risen long ago. Therefore, there is plenty of silver. I've read this opinion from commodity analysts over and over for years.
Basically, because there has never been any shortage whatsoever of silver, no one will accept that one might exist. You might as well try to convince them that there is a growing deficit of seawater. They'll see only that the level at low tide (Comex stocks) has not changed.
Thus, the silver Comex is divorced from fundamentals and trades according to whatever the chart readers or trend followers "see". Or, as many analysts say, from the total lack of any other knowledge of silver, silver prices will follow gold. Either our analysis is flawed something terrible or the world is just oblivious to the situation.
Or, as my dear mother used to say....
"The whole world is crazy
Except for thee and me
And lately
I've been worried about thee."
But if we're right, well, how would $100/ounce silver look on the old trading account? Myself? I know I wouldn't be pouring too much more concrete! (gray gold)
Rich


R Powell (12/28/02; 18:06:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 92829)
Some thoughts on silver


Sinclair talks of the short position in silver on the Comex when he says....
"The size of the short is, in my opinion, skewed by an industry wide misuse of the commercial margin provisions of the exchange."

The difference between the commercial and speculative categories on the Comex is that the Commercials are supposed to be those involved with either the production of or use of the product. Speculative interest provides liquidity and it is assumed will be settled on the fiat account statements of investors. I have often voiced the opinion and still believe that producers do not sell silver through the Comex and users do not buy through the Comex. Some may hedge on the exchange but silver does not pass from seller to buyer here. David Morgan agrees and has given Kodak as an example of a user that buys directly from mining companies, it has for years. If this is correct then the distinction between commercial and speculative positions would seem to be dubious at best. How does the exchange decide which category positions should be listed under? It may be this problem that Sinclair refers to in the above quote. This might also explain why the Comex stores (about 107 million ounces) never seem to vary very much. This is the "silver of last resort" and imho won't see physical delivery at the present low price.

I'm always suspect of the terms overbought or oversold in any market as the number of long contracts has to equal the number sold. If the commercial and speculative players in silver are both there primarily for monetary gain or to prevent monetary loss (as opposed to making or accepting delivery), then the idea of one group being extremely long or short loses significance, no?

I am still encouraged that the group called "Small Specs" is still holding tightly to their longs. These guys held up when silver was falling and probably keep POS from retesting the $4.00 level on that last awful fall from above $5.00. The Comex considers any speculative player who holds fewer than 200 contracts as small. I guess I'm microscopic but all things are relative. What I got ain't much but most of it's riding on silver!
Happy Weekend
Rich


sector (12/28/02; 18:03:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 92828)
RThe Dollar Index Value of Gold...
...Why it is an important metric to follow.
The manipulators who are members at the Bank for International Settlements have gold assets denominated in $USD. Mostly G-10 countries, they do not wish to see their assets fall any further than they already have. This is why earlier in the year they aggressively defended the 3.25 DIVG level using COMEX and LBMA gold derivatives plus physical metal sales. It was OK as long as the dollar stayed solid. Today, the MCDI is punting.

There were several pronounced ceiling bounces off 3.25 until the action following the latest article [December 4, 2002] at http://www.goldensextant.com revealing the central banks to have sold 16,000 tonnes of their treasury's gold bullion in the effort to cap the gold price. It also revealed why the gold lease rates are precariously tipped towards a backwardation disaster. Why is the DIVG important?

It is a metric that combines the Fed's Major Currency Dollar Index AND the LBMA's PM Fix. As such, it is an accurate measure of the true value of the remaining gold held in the vaults of the manipulating country's central banks. The Treasurers charged with sustaining bullion values are losing gold value rapidly according to the DIVG table listed below. Even on days with only a small rise in the PM Fix, if the MCDI has fallen as well, the DIVG falls too.

Examine the trend since the Dec 4th article mentioned above. On only three days out of 18 did the DIVG fall [asterisks] and those drops were minimal compared to the large percentage rises.

The DIVG is the battle-field for gold. Gold-bugs are winning.

Date_______PM Fix____MCDI_____DIVG
3-Dec-02____316.45___100.28____3.156
4-Dec-02____319.70___100.28____3.188
5-Dec-02____322.45___100.39____3.212
6-Dec-02____325.75____99.91____3.260
9-Dec-02____325.10____99.70____3.261
10-Dec-02___323.10____99.86____3.236*
11-Dec-02___324.25____99.66____3.254
12-Dec-02___326.40____99.10____3.294
13-Dec-02___332.20____98.64____3.368
16-Dec-02___333.00____98.83____3.369
17-Dec-02___339.00____98.38____3.446
18-Dec-02___338.00____98.42____3.434*
19-Dec-02___345.00____98.37____3.507
20-Dec-02___341.60____98.23____3.478*
23-Dec-02___343.95____98.48____3.493
24-Dec-02___345.00____97.98____3.521
26-Dec-02___348.00____97.87____3.556
27-Dec-02___349.30____97.95____3.566

Whatever the Fed has in store for the price of gold, it must rise in order to alleviate the bleeding from the remaining G-10 bullion values and terminate their metal losses. They must set a gold price mechanism far higher than it is today in order to attract metal from consumers back into the physical market to try and stop the central bank metallic losses.

Greenspan has spoken about gold. His next policy will have gold at its core. The remaining question is what will the price be?

Too low and the world laughs. The Fed doesn't get a second chance.

BTW the Japanese are in a stampede for gold as they watch bank runs unfold. Clients asking but not getting their money. Hello 1930.



Goldrush (12/28/02; 17:08:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 92827)
Germany could grind to a halt
http://europe.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/europe/12/28/germany.strike/
FRANKFURT, German --Mediation talks aimed at preventing Germany's first full-scale strike in a decade have ended without an agreement.

Union representatives for Germany's nearly three million public service workers and their federal, state and municipal employers in the northern city of Bremen focused discussions on Saturday on formalities and ended without any definitive progress.

Two mediators directing the talks had expressed optimism an agreement could be reached, but the head of the powerful ver.di service worker's union has threatened a long and hard fight.

The talks are to resume on January 2 and a result must be reached within four days.

"The serious work begins after the New Year," mediator Hans Koschnick, a former mayor of Bremen, told The Associated Press and acknowledged there are "hardheaded people on both sides" and the mediation could be very difficult.

Labour unions, who have already paralysed airports and public transport with a series of short stoppages, want a raise of more than 3 percent to prevent workers from garbage collectors to opera employees from falling behind awards in other industries.

But cash-strapped federal, state and local employers, who initially sought a pay freeze, have offered a complex package running through June 2004 that would include a pay rise of 0.9 percent from January and a 1.2 percent increase from October next year.

Koschnick said both sides showed indications of giving a bit during Saturday's talks, but the union representative, Kurt Martin, said the mood was "rather heated."

Still, he said the workers would be willing to compromise on the length of a the new contracts.

If the mediation talks fail, the union will meet to vote on a wider strike action.

Strikes are rare in Germany, but this year's pay talks have been tough because of the economic slowdown and labour's intention to make up for moderate increases in past years.

Public service workers have not carried out a major strike since 1992 when an 11-day stoppage left rubbish piled in the streets.
______________
German Unemployment rising fast, what are the unions thinking?

slingshot (12/28/02; 16:53:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 92826)
Silvester
The price on both coins makes you think you are getting a raw deal. The Silver Eagle cost more than a trade ounce. Each one an ounce fine. To me it just shows inflation and how much the dollar is worth. Add to this Morgan/Peace Silver Dollars. Started collecting those about uncirculated common coins at $7.00. Now they cost more if you can fine them. I agree this does not help the issue of gold investment/insurance. YOU have to overcome the grip of FIAT.Look past the image on the coin and concentrate on the substance of the coin. When both silver and gold reach a certain value, I am going to trade one or two coins in,in the beginning. Just to show or prove to myself and family I was correct. I can do that now with one Gold Eagle purchased at $268.00. Now am I greedy or am I learning patience?
Slingshot-----------------<>

physicalman (12/28/02; 16:49:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 92825)
bullion
Remember, your buying the amount of precious metal in the bullion coins, not the mint denomination marked on them

physicalman (12/28/02; 16:46:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 92824)
cyberbat-silvester
The 1 oz. proof gold eagles for many years have been bought by dealers at $90 oz. over spot if they have their original inner case, outer box and certificate of authenticity and if condition was pr.-67 or better. If it is not in the original mint packaging then they would pay 40-50 dollars over spot if cond. was 67 or better so IMO you did ok. as gold goes up (and it will go up much more IMO) the dealers spreads will close up some but not much as they will have to replenish their stock from somewhere.
On the silver eagles the primary mint dist. have to pay 1.25 oz. over spot so if spot is 4.50 when you bought the silver eagles the primary dealer had to pay 5.75 oz. and the secondary dealers are paying 5.85 to 6.10 plus shipping so if you bought small quantities at less than $7 oz. or larger amounts for 6.10 to 6.30 oz. you did fine (tell her to read this) I'm not the smartest guy on the block but have been into coins and PM's for 35 years

Arcticfox (12/28/02; 16:38:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 92823)
Silvester
Regarding:

Here we have an investment grade item with $50 stamped on it and the cost=$350. All items most of us are familiar with have a sticker price higher than we know its worth to be. We're used to being scammed a little or a lot on almost every thing we purchase these days but this is a bit much for her to accept. In my opinion this hurts Gold and Silver coin as an investment option for the masses. Can someone help me out here?



Talk to Mikal about the 1976 Canadian 14k olympic Au coin. It contains 1/4 oz Au and has a $100 Canadian face value. Also, the silver 1976 olympic has ten dollar face and can be picked up for small premium over Ag melt....this should satisfy the wife..

Arcticfox (12/28/02; 16:21:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 92822)
Something to think about.....
STOCKS ARE STILL EXPENSIVE... look at how different investment classes performed annually from 1968 to 1979, after the stock market peak of the late 1960s.
19.4% Gold
19.1% Chinese ceramics
18.9% Stamps
15.7% Rare books
13.7% Silver
12.7% Coins (U.S. non-gold)
12.5% Old masters' paintings
11.8% Diamonds
11.3% Farmland
9.6% Single-family homes
6.5% Inflation (CPI)
6.4% Foreign currencies
5.8% High-grade corporate bonds
3.1% Stocks
Burton Malkiel "A Random Walk Down Wall Street"


cyberbat (12/28/02; 16:19:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 92821)
Correction
Please excuse. You are right Mikal. It is just a bullion proof series coin.
Cyberbat

cyberbat (12/28/02; 16:16:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 92820)
Thanks Mikal
Appreciate your answer and yes it is just a double eagle. Authenticity papers are with it and the velvet container. I made a comparison with my regular 1 oz. bullion coins and there is a striking difference, literally. It is definately different. Even so, there was a noticable lack of them at the gold show back in November. I really shouldn't be attending them. I'm a sucker for things like that.
Thanks again,
Cyberbat

mikal (12/28/02; 16:06:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 92819)
@cyberbat
Correction: Should read: "I have not checked...but you can easily FIND OUT."

mikal (12/28/02; 16:03:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 92818)
@cyberbat
I don't think you did badly at all. But you mustn't call it a Saint Gaudens because that is the name used for $20 gold "double eagles" coins minted from 1907-1933. The design was retained for use on the obverse (with minor modifications) of the US Eagle bullion series, beginning in 1986. The US bullion proof coins sell for a healthy premium and occasionally appreciate in price due to low mintages and demand. I have not checked any dealer or published refererence for the price of your 1986 coin, but you can easily fin ou. You should make sure that the box and case and coin capsule are ALL in excellent condition and that the papers of authenticity are not missing. This is the little pamphlet that describes the coin from the Bureau of the U.S. Mint, Department of the U.S. Treasury.

Goldrush (12/28/02; 15:59:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 92817)
Barbarous Relic looted?
http://www.militaresdemocraticos.com/denuncias/en/20021228-12.html
Gold Reserves Looted from Venezuela's Central Bank

Uncertainty over the whereabouts of Venezuela's national gold reserves and who controls them.

Want to know if Venezuela still has any gold reserves left? Then don't look for it in the country's Central Bank anymore.
Central Bank (BCV) gold reserves have been trucked to the Caracas Fuerte Tiuna army garrison under armed escort by loyalist military officers who support strongman Hugo Chavez in his refusal to allow free and democratic elections.

Garrison commander Jorge Luis Garcia Carneiro, a military officer still loyal to Chavez, has refused to give precise figures of how much gold his men took. He claims, however, that at least ten metric tonnes (321,500 troy ounces) of gold bullion currently remain his heavily-armed 24/7 control in Fuerte Tiuna, and that the order to remove it from the Central Bank came directly from Hugo Chavez himself.

The lack of precise numbers makes it difficult or impossible for independent controllers to verify the government's accounting if the gold is ever returned.

Immediately when the gold was moved to Fuerte Tiuna, Hugo Chavez and three of his cabinet ministers also moved there, and now sleep permanently in lodgings in the Circulo Militar, within the protected perimeters of the garrison.

International credit rating agencies are now expected to downgrade Venezuela once again, as chaos in the Central Bank and the uncertainty of the country's gold reserves reveal the true state of affairs in the country's increasingly desperate Chavez government.

Preliminary data released Dec 27 2002 by the Venezuelan Central Bank showed that the country's economy contracted by an estimated 10 percent to 12 percent in the fourth quarter of 2002, the largest quarterly drop in the past 50 years.
____________
The info on this site is biased as it is an anti-Chavez web site. Still, its an interesting story about Gold.



Sovereign (12/28/02; 15:58:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 92816)
Who owns the European Central Bank (ECB)?
Dear Forum participants,

This is a question that has been on my mind lately. Is the ECB essentially any different than the US Fed? Since The ECB is technically independent of European governments, it must, by default, NOT be a public institution: it must be PRIVATELY owned and/or controlled. Do any of you know who wields the reins at the ECB, not only on paper (a la Duisenberg) but in actuality?

Thanks in advance. I think FOA would have been helpful here.

mikal (12/28/02; 15:51:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 92815)
@Silvestor
"We're used to being scammed... but this is a bit much." Buyer beware, but you are correct that they are not entirely upfront. Youwll be ok if you take responsiblity for your own decisions and actions in the marketplace, except in instances of outright fraud, deception and/or criminal malfeascence.
But a U.S. bullion coin is labeled, as in other countries and as legal tender laws require, with a purely symbolic face-value designation. Now have you or your spouse ever been deceived into believing it was a coin intended for circulation, and not for bullion investment?
(I prefer these low denoinations over the higher ones, because most prospective buyers like to know that the coin is worth MORE THAN IT WAS in the past. And many distrust the government on first impulse.) Regards

R Powell (12/28/02; 15:49:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 92814)
silvester
Ford Motor Co. makes pickup trucks. Some are called F-100 series trucks, slightly larger ones are F-150s and so on. These are just labels and not indications of cost or worth. I've been asked the same question concerning "one dollar" silver eagle coins. Why do they cost more than one dollar? I'll be happy when they can't be purchased for less than a "C-note" which cost $100.
Maybe your wife would be happier if you bought her some bullion in brick form without the dollar notations!
BC BN Buy silver too!
Rich

Goldrush (12/28/02; 15:48:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 92813)
Holiday shopping down 11%
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Procrastinators, dust off your credit cards.

That was the mantra for millions of Americans Thursday as they streamed into malls and stores across the country, hunting for the marked-down items that retailers can't wait to get rid of after what looks like the worst holiday shopping season in at least 30 years.

The latest figures certainly don't look good. Holiday shopping fell 11 percent to $113 billion between Thanksgiving and Christmas, according to estimates released Thursday by ShopperTrak, which tracks retail sales.


Goldrush (12/28/02; 15:46:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 92812)
Hard times for unemployed
WASHINGTON (AP) — Already facing a sputtering economy and slow hiring, nearly 800,000 unemployed Americans face a new woe Saturday when their federal unemployment benefits end.

Democrats and labor unions, sensing political opportunity, are blaming the cuts on President Bush and Republicans in Congress. Bush, in a late show of support for an extension, urged Congress last week to get it done when lawmakers return to work next month.

"Regrettably, the House Republican leadership turned their backs on these families and refused to act, and the administration chose not to intervene before Congress adjourned," Senate Democratic leader Tom Daschle said Friday. "This inaction by Republicans was unconscionable then and it is even more so now."

Congress left for the year without extending the federal benefits, meaning that 750,000 to 800,000 unemployed workers will get cut off Saturday. Another 95,000 jobless workers will exhaust their state benefits each week afterward. Already, 1 million people have exhausted all of their benefits.

There were two competing bills that languished: A $5 billion plan from the Democrat-controlled Senate that would have extended benefits 13 weeks for people now receiving them or who were newly eligible, and a $900 million plan from the GOP-led House for five extra weeks for workers in a few states with high unemployment rates.

"It's unfortunate that the Senate didn't pick up our unemployment package and pass it," said John Feehery, spokesman for House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill.

Bush has now sent a "very strong message" to Congress to extend the benefits and make them retroactive, said Labor Department spokeswoman Kathleen Harrington. The agency is confident that benefits will be extended, she said, and has been relaying that to many governors who are calling with questions.

Goldrush (12/28/02; 15:37:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 92811)
Venezuelan news
Massive Street Demonstrations Planned in Venezuela
VOA News
28 Dec 2002, 21:07 UTC


Opposition leaders in Venezuela are calling for massive street demonstrations Sunday as part of an ongoing protest aimed at ousting President Hugo Chavez.

Organizers say nine marches are planned and demonstrators are coming together for what the opposition calls a "victory" rally.

A general strike in the oil-rich nation has continued for nearly a month. The opposition says President Chavez's leftist-leaning policies are sending the country into economic ruin.

The work stoppage has caused severe shortages of fuel and other supplies in the oil-rich nation. Long lines snake down roads as motorists wait hours to purchase fuel.

President Chavez has begun importing fuel and other supplies. A Brazilian tanker arrived in eastern Venezuela Saturday to deliver a much-needed shipment of gasoline.

Venezuela, the world's fifth-largest oil exporter, normally pumps about three million barrels of oil daily. The labor action nearly paralyzed production and helped push crude oil prices upward.

The president of the state-run oil company said Saturday oil production is now at one-point-five million barrels a day.

The opposition say they are planning a non-binding resolution on February second to call for early elections. President Chavez says he will ignore the results.

The populist president says the worst of the political crisis is over.

cyberbat (12/28/02; 15:34:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 92810)
Need Help too. Anyone
I purchased a 1986 1 OZ. st. gaudens at a coin show last month at the outrageous price (at the time)of 420.00 It is a mint proof encased in plastic. What is usually considered the going price over spot on a mint proof st. gaudens ? Anyone?
Thanks,
Cyberbat

Goldrush (12/28/02; 15:32:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 92809)
US considers intercepting N Korean missile shipments
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=68&u=/nyt/20021228/ts_nyt/u_s__readies_plan_to_raise_pressure_on_north_koreans&printer=1
WASHINGTON, Dec. 28 The Bush administration has prepared a comprehensive plan to intensify financial and political pressure on North Korea (news - web sites) if it does not abandon its effort to make nuclear weapons, with the ultimate aim of confronting the nation with the prospect of economic collapse, according to senior administration officials.

Under the new policy, neighbors would be encouraged to reduce economic ties with North Korea; the United Nations (news - web sites) Security Council could threaten economic sanctions, and the American military might intercept missile shipments to deprive the North of money from weapon sales.


Administration officials said the threat of growing isolation is the best way to force North Korea to give up its nuclear ambitions and, if it refuses, to bring down the regime. Officials say that under their plan, which they call "tailored containment," they are willing to negotiate with Pyongyang but only if it first dismantles its nuclear weapons program.


To offer new incentives, officials say, would be giving in to blackmail and would reward the North Korean regime for failing to live up to earlier commitments.


cyberbat (12/28/02; 15:10:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 92808)
@ Bulldog
Good post #92795. IMHO you will want both. My portfolio consist of 33% cash;40% gold (physicals and funds) and 27% EURO C.D.'s. I am now thinking about realigning that 33% cash though to about 20% and moving the balance in to total physicals. I must say that all the investments are paying off handsomely with the exception of cash. I don't think anyone can go wrong now in gold or it's stocks. Even the bad gold stocks will eventually take off when the mad rush starts and as you and I both know, that's just around the corner.
It may get so bad that you might even want to hire out Smith & Wesson security to make sure your gold stays where you want it to.

silvester (12/28/02; 15:06:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 92807)
Need help


My wife asks me why it says "One Dollar" on a Silver Eagle and "50 Dollars" on a Gold Eagle. She is disturbed by the fact that a coin cost considerably more Dollars than what it says its worth. Coins are the only items in which I've seen her express sticker shock. She thinks she is getting a bad deal. I have attempted to explain what inflation has done to the value of our money but she quickly loses interest and gives me one of those funny looks she is so fond of sharing. In all honesty though, I find my answer lacking.

Here we have an investment grade item with $50 stamped on it and the cost=$350. All items most of us are familiar with have a sticker price higher than we know its worth to be. We're used to being scammed a little or a lot on almost every thing we purchase these days but this is a bit much for her to accept. In my opinion this hurts Gold and Silver coin as an investment option for the masses. Can someone help me out here?

mikal (12/28/02; 14:53:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 92806)
@Topaz
Stagflation is here. "When do things go from control to..." no control? Actually, the U.S. economy has not been either fully controlled or uncontrolled ever in history. As I see it, control shifts back and forth between the federal government, quasi-governmental financial entities, powerful special interest groups, the mainstream consuming public and foreign governments and investors. Clearly cycle analysis reveals the gross imbalances trending further. Stagflation is not easily defined but practical neccesity requires the average person to realistically apply Black Blade's protections. This act is overt acknowledgement that most essential commodities and daily necessities will go up in price(and down in availability)and some luxuries and overvalued assets will deflate in price, such as U.S. dollars.

Topaz (12/28/02; 14:33:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 92805)
"someone" is killing the $ with kindness.
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=fvxy%2Ctnxy%2Ctyxy%2Cgcz02&period=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=12&go.y=11
Long Bond yield continues to drop and if predicted Stock market declines eventuate next week we may see 3.65% before New Year. Short maturities are declining more rapidly. (flight to Cash)
Next stop (after 3.65%) seen as 3.15%....then things get wobbily.

One could posit that the opposite to inflation is disinflation, (a monetary/fiscal thing) whereas the opposite to deflation is hyperinflation (a far less tangible emotive thing) - When did/do "things" go from control (in/dis) to uncontrolled (de/hyp)?

Goldrush (12/28/02; 14:03:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 92804)
Hellfire and Brimstone
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=578&e=1&cid=578&u=/nm/20021228/ts_nm/iraq_usa_rumsfeld_dc
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld signed an order to move thousands of additional U.S. troops, dozens of strike aircraft and likely two more aircraft carrier battle groups to the Gulf beginning in early January for possible war with Iraq, U.S. officials said on Saturday.

The defense and administration officials told Reuters the movement of armored, infantry and airborne troops would be significant -- at least doubling the 50,000 Army, Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps personnel already near Iraq -- and was a clear signal of President Bush (news - web sites)'s intent to end Baghdad's chemical, biological and nuclear arms programs.


The officials, who asked not to be identified, confirmed a Washington Post report on Saturday that Rumsfeld signed a detailed, classified order on Tuesday to send the forces and put two U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups on active alert that they could soon join two American carriers already in the Gulf and Mediterranean within striking distance of Baghdad.


In addition to about 150 strike and support aircraft aboard two extra carriers, the new order includes preparations to send thousands of Marines from Camp Pendleton, California, and units from five wings of Air Force strike jets, heavy bombers and unmanned spy drones, officials said.


Officials confirmed to Reuters on Friday the military hospital ship Comfort would likely leave its home port of Baltimore for the Indian Ocean as early as Monday.


"It (the order) involves forces that can pretty much deal with anything," one defense official told Reuters, adding an additional order to move troops was expected soon.


In reaction to the order, U.S. officials said the Army had alerted the 1st and 3rd brigades of the 3rd Infantry Division at Fort Stewart, Georgia, that they were likely to go soon to Kuwait. The division's 2nd brigade is already in Kuwait.


Defense officials also confirmed the Post report that the 101st Airborne Division, based at Fort Campbell, Kentucky, was likely to deploy beginning next month as well as the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force of some 17,500 troops from Camp Pendleton, California.


U.S. troops from the 1st Armored Division and 1st Infantry Division had also been put on alert in Germany for possible deployment, officials said.


NUMBER COULD GO HIGHER


While the new deployment is likely to swell the number of U.S. "trigger-pullers" -- ground combat troops -- in the region to fewer than 100,000, that number could go higher in February, officials said. Still, the final total used in any invasion would likely be only half that of the U.S.-led coalition of a half-million troops that drove Iraqi troops from Kuwait in the 1991 Gulf War (news - web sites).


While Bush has made no decision on whether to launch a U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, the United States continues to insist Iraq is lying when it denies it has pressed ahead with chemical, biological and nuclear weapons programs even as U.N. inspectors have again begun searching for such arms.


The Pentagon (news - web sites) declined to confirm or deny that the classified order had been signed, but a senior spokesman for the U.S. military's Central Command in Tampa, Florida, which is responsible for American military activities in the Gulf Region, said additional forces would soon begin to move to the area.


"Here at Central Command, we don't discuss deployment orders, because that would compromise operational security," spokesman Jim Wilkinson said by telephone.

Goldrush (12/28/02; 13:52:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 92803)
N Korea not responding
U.N. Nuclear Inspectors Leave North Korea Next Week
Sat December 28, 2002 02:32 PM ET
By Judy Lee

SEOUL (Reuters) - The U.N. nuclear agency said on Saturday its inspectors would leave North Korea early next week after the communist state said it would expel them and press on with plans to reactivate a mothballed nuclear research facility.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) described North Korea as a country "in defiance of international obligations" and said Pyongyang had ignored requests for the inspectors to remain in the country.

It said its inspectors would leave on Tuesday on a flight to Beijing, effectively ending the agency's ability to monitor the Yongbyon nuclear complex, 90 km (55 miles) north of Pyongyang, which is able to produce plutonium for nuclear weapons.

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan urged North Korea on Saturday to reverse course and cooperate with the world body's nuclear watchdog agency.

"The secretary-general expresses his concern over the increasing tensions in the Korean Peninsula. He urges the government of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea to cooperate fully with the International Atomic Energy Agency and not to undertake actions that could further complicate matters," a U.N. spokesman said.

"The secretary-general calls on all parties concerned to make every effort to resolve the situation in accordance with international norms," the spokesman said.

As nuclear powers and neighbors wondered how to tackle the crisis over the unpredictable North's nuclear plans, South Korea said it wanted to discuss the problem with other powers.

South Korea, whose president and president-elect favor the so-called sunshine policy of aid and dialogue as a way of dealing with the North, said it would discuss strategy with the United States and Japan in January.

A foreign ministry statement said South Korea would also "seek close cooperation with China, Russia and the European Union."

In the capital Seoul, about 70 protesters rallied against their communist neighbor and burned a North Korean flag. "Stop the sunshine policy. Stop assistance to North Korea," they chanted. "The world must stop North Korea from producing nuclear weapons."

The United States, keen to maintain its focus on Iraq, told North Korea it wanted a peaceful end to the crisis on the world's last Cold War frontier but would not negotiate under duress. Pyongyang wants direct talks with Washington.

While other nations searched for ways to defuse the crisis, North Korea's enigmatic leader, Kim Jong-il, relaxed at a concert where an army choir praised him in song.

North Korea announced plans on Friday to restart a radiochemical laboratory at Yongbyon which is able to make plutonium for nuclear weapons.

It told the IAEA that its inspectors must leave as a 1994 agreement, under which North Korea was given fuel oil in exchange for compliance on non-proliferation, had broken down.

"This is a country in defiance of its international obligations," said IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei in a statement. "It sets a dangerous precedent for the integrity of the non-proliferation regime."

The Vienna-based IAEA said North Korean officials had told the inspectors Pyongyang would not respond to an IAEA letter asking for the inspectors to be allowed to stay in the country.

Goldrush (12/28/02; 13:47:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 92802)
Americans growing more fearful about the future
Washington, Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Americans, concerned about a possible war with Iraq and the condition of the U.S. economy, have grown more fearful about the world's future and their own, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Fifty-six percent of Americans say they're ``more fearful,'' rather than ``more hopeful,'' about what 2003 will bring for the world, according to the poll. Last year, ``hopefulness'' about the future prevailed, ABC News reported on its Web site.

Sixty-three percent of those polled are more hopeful than fearful about their own future, down from 80 percent last year, according to the poll. Americans who rate the economy negatively are 20 points more fearful than those who rate it positively, ABC News said.

People who approve of President George W. Bush's policy on Iraq are more hopeful than fearful for their own future by 70 percent to 27 percent. Of those who disapprove of Bush's Iraq policy, it's an almost even split -- 50 percent are hopeful and 49 percent fearful, according to the poll.

The poll was conducted by telephone between Dec. 12 and Dec. 15 among a random sample of 1,209 adults. The results have a three- point error margin.



Goldrush (12/28/02; 13:45:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 92801)
US Ambassador to Venezuela worried about violence
CARACAS, Dic 27 (AFP) - US Ambassador to Venezuela Charles Shapiro said Friday the risk of violence is rising daily in Venezuela, which is deeply polarized by a 26-day-old strike.

"Every day there is more possibility of violence, street violence from both sides," he told journalists after meeting President Hugo Chavez.

The right-wing opposition heading the strike wants Chavez to step down or call snap elections. The leftist-populist president has rejected the demands.

Shapiro said it was essential the two sides should reach "a political, democratic, constitutional and electoral solution to avert violence."

He said gasoline shortages were worrying.

The US State Department has warned US nationals against travel to the South American country and has shut down its trade and agriculture office in Caracas.

"We are reducing the number of staff at the embassy as a consequence of the drop in gasoline supplies," Shapiro said.



Goldrush (12/28/02; 13:44:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 92800)
Iraq opposition claims has evidence on Saddam WMD
Tehran, Dec 28, IRNA -- An Iraqi opposition figure said here on Saturday that Iraqi dissidents had 'important' evidence and documents that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction and would put them at the disposal of the UN if the universal body cooperates with them.

"We have important evidence and documents on Iraqi regime's activities and programs in the production of weapons of mass destruction... In case the UN establishes links with Iraqi dissidents, we will be ready for cooperation and in this case, we can put the proof at the disposal of the organization," said a member of the Supreme Assembly of the Islamic Revolution of Iraq (SAIRI) Abd al-Aziz Hakim in an interview with IRNA here on Saturday.

Iraq, accused by the US of developing weapons of mass destruction, has been hosting the UN disarmament team for a second month as stipulated under UN Security Council Resolution 1441, which gives it the authority to search for prohibited arms and military programs.

The United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) Chief Hans Blix is heading the inspection mission.


Goldrush (12/28/02; 13:42:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 92799)
Mexican farmers angry with NAFTA
Farmers Threaten To Block US-Mexico Border Crossings
VOA News
28 Dec 2002, 05:25 UTC


Angry Mexican farmers are threatening to block U.S.-Mexico border crossings on New Year's Day to protest the lifting of tariffs on agricultural products under free trade rules.

The farmers say they fear they will not be able to compete with U.S. and Canadian producers when tariffs are removed on January 1 as part of the North American Free Trade Agreement.

The farmers and their supporters are calling on the Mexican government to do more to protect the agricultural sector.

President Vicente Fox refuses to re-negotiate the free trade agreement, but he has pledged to help the farmers compete with the United States and Canada.


Goldrush (12/28/02; 13:39:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 92798)
Frustration growing in Mexico with social injustice
http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-2278195,00.html
MEXICO CITY (AP) - There's a Pancho Villa revival going on, but it's not the books, the new Antonio Banderas movie or the nostalgia wave that worries some Mexicans. It's the real-life reawakening of Villa's violence.

Rising social unrest swept to the pinnacles of power Dec. 10 when protesters on horseback broke down the ornate wooden doors of Congress and surged into the lower legislative chamber to demand subsidies for farmers and pay raises for teachers.

The protest was reminiscent of Villa's sweep across northern Mexico in the 1910-17 revolution, when he and his pistol-packing, horse-riding soldiers would burst through the gates of elegant haciendas to loot the rich landowners.

The invasion stunned lawmakers. The time for such violence is long past, all parties agreed - even Mexico's leftist Democratic Revolution Party, which itself has flirted with violent demonstrations and rebellions.

``These violent pressure tactics are not the way to solve society's just demands,'' Democratic Revolution congressional leader Jesus Ortega said.

To some Mexicans, though, Villa remains a hero and his methods still appeal. Few embody Mexico's chaotic violence, devil-may-care attitude, sense of rough justice and spontaneous rebellion as much as the revolutionary leader.



davefinger (12/28/02; 13:39:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 92797)
Bulldog
I think this is where gold as a store of value comes into play. If paper money is devaluing and you have $1000 in the bank, in a short time the real value of that $1000 could fall to $500, $100 or even $10. Better to have most of your assets in gold that could be either exchanged for cash as needed or used itself. The general population would become acutely aware of these facts as the situation unfolded and also likely become more willing to make personal transactions, especially medium+ size ones, directly in gold. For example, you have a spare shotgun I want to buy. Our currency has already dropped in value to the point that the $250 you might have taken for it when times were good, now takes $800 to equal in purchasing power. Tomorrow it may be $1000. Now, would you rather take three sovereigns or the $800 for that shotgun?



Goldrush (12/28/02; 13:06:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 92796)
"The party is over"- Japan
TOKYO, Dec 26, 2002 (ODJ Select via COMTEX) -- By Jim Hawe

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

(Dow Jones)--It used to be that most Japanese looked down on gold as something of a stodgy investment favored by their overly conservative grandparents. But the old codgers may be getting the last laugh as young Japanese investors are now flocking to gold in unheard-of numbers.

"The party is over," said Itsuo Toshima, Japan regional director for the World Gold Council, referring to the somber realization among young Japanese investors that quick profits are now much harder to find.

"The Japanese have lost faith in stocks, in the (U.S.) dollar and even in their banks, and so are turning to gold like never before."

Toshima said that the buzzwords among Japanese investors are now "risk minimization" and "asset preservation."

"People used to come to me and say, 'So how much money can I make on gold?' but that has all changed," said Toshima. "There has been a definite shift among young Japanese investors from being 'return conscious' to being 'risk conscious,' and that is good for gold."

Toshima explained that the decade-long slump in the Japanese economy has reached the point where even very young people are now asking themselves if they will have a job in the coming years, how will they provide for their children's future and will their pensions even be there when they are ready to retire.

"Young people worried about job security or their pensions was virtually unheard of just three or four years ago."

Toshima said that a surge in the number of first time investors in the gold market has bolstered Japanese gold demand in 2002 and will continue to do so in 2003.

Gold Invest Hit 80 Tons In First Three Quarters Of '02

"Industrial gold demand is down because of the poor economy and jewelry demand has been basically flat, but demand for gold in Japan's investment sector has really taken off."

According to figures compiled by the World Gold Council, Japanese gold investment demand in 2001 came to 64.8 metric tons, but this figure already hit 80 tons in just the first three quarters of 2002.

While declining to give any specific price or demand targets, Toshima said that he expects Japanese gold demand in 2003 will top the robust level seen in 2002.

Toshima, did however, warn that the Japanese gold market could see some short term profit-taking.

"The Japanese bought a large amount of gold about three or four years ago when it was trading around Y1,000 a gram. But with the gold price moving over Y1,400 just last week, some of these investors must be sorely tempted to take profits."

Japan's over-the-counter gold price was pegged at Y1,390 Thursday, down Y6 from Wednesday.

Toshima said that in 2003 the World Gold Council will be concentrating most of its resources in promoting gold in the investment sector, as "this is the real growth area."

Toshima explained that the council will be conducting a series of workshops around Japan to teach sales people at mining companies, bullion houses and regional banks how to better market gold to investors.

Toshima said the council is looking to "build markets" where the growing number of new Japanese gold investors can easily get their hands on some bullion.

"This rise in Japanese gold demand is not a boom. This is a trend with some real staying power," said Toshima.

Bulldog (12/28/02; 13:02:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 92795)
Depression Assets
There is much talk here of a coming depression and the need for "guns, gold, & grub". We surmise the demise of fiat, yet in a depression, wouldn't cash be king? With unemployment, 0 savings, the collapse of real estate, I assume assets could be obtained for pennies on the dollar for those with cash. I assume that those advocating getting out of debt would not be putting all their liquidity in gold. Thoughts?

Cavan Man (12/28/02; 12:10:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 92794)
Hello CB (too)
Bill Buckler a/k/a the "Privateer"; one of my favorite analysts who takes no prisoners. He is right and the big guys know it.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. (12/28/02; 11:11:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 92793)
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