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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/28/2002
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

PCV1 (11/28/02; 23:23:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 90462)
Housing prices past peak: Century 21 (National Post)
http://www.nationalpost.ca/home/story.html?id={A37EA0D8-DDDD-4706-858A-4E20FB635CB8}
The Canadian housing market has peaked and sales are now expected to decline by 10-15% next year with little or no price appreciation in 2003, according to a new real estate forecast. Century 21 Canada's pessimistic outlook on the market released yesterday is a rarity in a real estate industry known for its optimism and ability to see the glass as half full.

But Don Lawby, president of the Vancouver-based company, says there is little doubt the market has reached its high. "Nobody wants to hear it but it's real. It's a tough call but I think the market has been hovering at its peak for the last three to four months," Mr. Lawby said.

"I'm not suggesting that the bubble will burst, because there's been no bubble in the Canadian real estate market."

Century 21 surveyed 21 markets last month and found the average price of a home sold was $163,682, a 16% increase from October, 1999.

It said the number of home sales has jumped 41% during the same period in those markets. In Montreal and British Columbia's Fraser Valley the increase in sales has been in excess of 80%, and in Greater Vancouver 70%.

But Mr. Lawby said November sales are already showing a 5% decline from a year ago, with the pace of price increases also beginning to slow after three years of near-record growth.

His words will spark a controversy in the real estate world.

This month, Re/Max said it expected a 10% increase in prices next year. The company refused to be drawn into a battle with its competitors yesterday but at the time, Pamela Alexander, chief executive of Re/Max Ontario-Atlantic Canada, said "lack of inventory will translate into intensified pressure on housing unit sales and prices."

However, October figures from the Canadian Real Estate Association point to a major upswing in inventory. CREA, which represents real estate boards across the country, said there had been an 11.1% increase from a year ago in new listings.

Despite that jump in inventory, CREA tends to lean more to the Re/Max view, and said it expected year-over-year double-digit price increases to continue well into the spring. Economists there believe demand is strong enough to soak up all that new supply.

Most of the concern that the market has peaked is based on record numbers in both number of sales and housing prices. CREA said this month it expects the average price of homes sold in 2002 to hit an all-time high.

There is little question the market is going to calm, said Peter Norman, vice-president of Clayton Research Associates Ltd., a real estate analysis firm. The question is the degree.

"The reality for next year is probably somewhere in between the Century 21 report and overly optimistic Re/Max report," said Mr. Norman. "There is not going to be any sort of crash; there is room for prices to go up."

He said if there is a concern, it is probably in Toronto's overheated condominium market. Mr. Norman said with so many condos being pre-sold today, they represent a potential for a flood of new listings as they are constructed.

"When those new condos are delivered [or built] by say, 2004, the people moving in then put their current homes on the resale market," said Mr. Norman.

Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd., one of the major players in the residential market, is still mulling its forecast for next year, said Sherry Chris, the company's executive vice-president of network services

She did hint her company will probably take a middle-of-the-road approach. "I think perhaps we'll see moderate increases in prices and perhaps a small increase in unit sales."

Low interest rates have been the single most powerful driver of the housing market, and consumers have taken full advantage, Mr. Lawby said.

This year's phenomenal job growth has also been a big factor, other analysts have said, although in recent months all of the job growth has been in part-time work which is seen as evidence that the overall economy is cooling off.

While interest rates are expected to rise in the new year, Mr. Lawby said most homebuyers need not worry. "Most of them locked into low interest rates for fairly long terms, so they are reasonably well protected against unforeseen changes in economic conditions," he said.


Black Blade (11/28/02; 22:20:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 90461)
Asian Markets Brush Off Grim Data
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

The Nikkei 225 looks strong along with the Taiwan weighted as grim Japanese economic data can't keep these markets down. Of course the MOF has been orchestrating a sell off in Yen and prop up of the US dollar in a failed effort to support the export driven economy. The Hang Seng is a bit lower though. Meanwhile Gold travels along a bit higher as everyone anxiously awaits the next terrorist target to be hit.

- Black Blade

mikal (11/28/02; 20:44:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 90460)
15 local Oregon governments pass anti-Patriot Act resolutions
http://www2.kval.com
Eugene City Council Passes a Resolution Opposing the USA Patriot Act
November 25, 2002
By Jodi Unruh
New Anti-Terrorism Law Allows Police to Search Homes without a Warrant.
Downtown Eugene - The Eugene City Council passed a resolution�Monday night�opposing the USA Patriot Act.� Congress passed the legislation shortly after September 11th in hopes of cracking down on terrorism.�
Eugene Councilors agreed to pass a resolution after listening to dozens speak out on the controversial anti-terrorism law during a public forum at the Eugene City Hall.� Alexander Gonzales said, "If we grow up thinking that it's ok to profile, it's ok to subject people to searches, then what is ok?"� Dawn Peebles said, "Now, ordinary citizens are fearful that the government can come into their homes without honoring the Bill of Rights.".....
The new Eugene resolution is more symbolic than anything because officials don't have to comply with it.� The document also asks Oregon Congressmen to try and revoke the law.� 14 other local governments have passed similar resolutions.....Complete story at link


mikal (11/28/02; 20:27:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 90459)
@CavanMan
Why not eliminate the top position altogether? Consensus decision making is the goal after all, or should be. The greatest scientists, scholars and statesman should be given top priority in the selection of candidates. Psychological television campaigns and campaign contributions should be banned forever. Citizen participation would be based on informed choices and become a pleasurable obligation, though still voluntary.

mikal (11/28/02; 20:13:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 90458)
@Cavan Man
I appreciate your respect and admiration for Ireland, a great underdog and an ancient, mystical country with a vast body of spiritual, cultural and literary tradition. So greatly underestimated, in part through the official control of educational curriculum and history, religion, trade and politics using suppression. Same with the Celts, Druids and Gaelic people of Ireland, Scotland, Wales, Cornwall, Brittany and Isle of Man.

Cavan Man (11/28/02; 19:58:23MT - usagold.com msg#: 90457)
mikal
But, from what country would you select a leader? Myself I'd prefer an Irishman :>)..You know, if it wasn't for alcohol the Irish would rule the world.

mikal (11/28/02; 19:53:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 90456)
@CavanMan
Good points, Europe and the Euro are off the radar here in the US to the vast majority even down to small things like: "What ocean divides the two continents?" Answer: "What difference does it make? Chill."

On second thought, I would prefer NOT to see Blair or even the proposed Germans or Frenchman in the top position, but an underdog, with more understanding of common people.

Cavan Man (11/28/02; 19:47:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 90455)
Tony Blair
Whatever happened to English statesmen like Churchill and Gladstone and Penn and.....? The Brits are not completely without stones. Where are their real leaders?

Cavan Man (11/28/02; 19:44:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 90454)
mikal
Europe is more powerful than we (here in the US) know. They play a strong, silent hand.

Cavan Man (11/28/02; 19:42:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 90453)
mikal
Forget Great Britain. Though England will join the EU and compromise (or not), that one square mile, the old "London" will be at the heart of global finance and will be whole whether or not. It's about that one square mile ultimately because that is where the leverage is.

mikal (11/28/02; 19:40:24MT - usagold.com msg#: 90452)
@Cavan Man
Blair may be up for the job, given that the EU agenda may go forward irregardless of who is the figurehead, the spokesman or agent of the financiers in power.

mikal (11/28/02; 19:32:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 90451)
@Cavan Man
Yes. So they say, and the mainstream outlet Ananova would have us believe that they care. But given the interests of Britain in domestic and world trade and finance, her entry into the EU must be preceded by certain guarantees. And Blair would be one of the key elites to make compromises deemed "necessary" and "advantageous". That's why concern over Blair's rumored EU political aspirations is distracting from the issues that matter, if not disinforming.

Cavan Man (11/28/02; 19:11:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 90450)
mikal
Sounds like Mr. Blair is positioning himself for another job.

mikal (11/28/02; 18:50:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 90449)
@Sierra Madre
"Regarding Blair's views you wrote..." I did not write anything in that post. It is all from Ananova as clearly stated. I agree that the superstate model they pretend to restrict will be abused. The pragmatist in me would prefer to call attention to progress in Europe as there are two sides to every story. Especially with the EU, their gold reserves (ECB AND inside member country CB's) and their new Euro, by definition changing world perceptions and use of gold and trade and cultural relationships.

Within the history of the continent, peace and progress have always moved slowly and drawbacks such as you point out are merely obstacles, not death sentences or legitimate condemnation. What good there is in the world comes through mutual acceptance of constructive change such as this. Whether financial, political, social, scientific, cultural or especially spiritual.

In the context of Europe, the adjustments needed to sustain and improve peoples lives require admission of mistakes immediately. Responsive government would do this, the smaller the better. Yet cooperation and coordination between groups of dissimilar people in Europe requires an EU, though a smaller one, less expensive, burdensome and unwieldy.

No social supervision system can be valued after it has caused trouble. It is against our conscience and nature of course. History repeats unless we respect the rights of survival of all races and tribes, the efforts of all people to make a decent living and the birth rights of all individuals spiritual potential, without selling or imposing spiritual dogma on others.

DOWNUNDER (11/28/02; 18:45:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 90448)
THE HIDDEN COSTS OF WAR - - - ( may have to go Cold Turkey)
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/DK23Ak02.html
IF his administration goes ahead with the "Boys Own" adventure in Iraq --then this article disects the cost problems alone that will preface his downfall! Horray!

SNIP- - -

The article, which is a shortened version of a longer study, details many costs not normally factored into estimates. First among them is the need for a substantial occupation and peacekeeping force in Iraq. The cost of such an operation is substantial. Nordhaus cites Congressional Budget Office estimates that occupation could cost between US$17-45 billion per year, which actually might be low. If the post-war environment is hostile, like Afghanistan, the cost could be higher.

And that annual cost might continue for years. According to Nordhaus "it is difficult to see how a successful occupation of Iraq could be less than five years, and it might easily extend for two decades. Thus a minimum cost could range from $75-500 billion."



Black Blade (11/28/02; 18:33:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 90447)
Japan industrial output, jobs, CPI, spending
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=1823306

Snippit:

TOKYO, Nov 29 (Reuters) - The following are immediate reactions of economists and market participants to Japanese data released on Friday. Industrial production fell 0.3 percent in October from a month earlier on a seasonally adjusted basis, preliminary data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed. That was worse than a median forecast of a 0.4 percent rise in a Reuters survey of 20 economists conducted last week. Earlier, the government said the unemployment rate in October returned to the postwar high of 5.5 percent seen last December. The nationwide core consumer price index fell for a 37th straight month in October, dropping 0.9 percent from a year earlier. The fall was worse than a median forecast for a 0.8 percent drop in a Reuters survey. Other data showed average spending by wage earners' households, a key gauge of personal consumption, fell a real 0.7 percent in October from a year earlier.

Black Blade: So much for the "scorched earth" policy on the yen. Add that to an insolvent banking system.



Black Blade (11/28/02; 18:22:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 90446)
Gold Getting Frisky!
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

Spot is jumping higher in Asia tonight. New terrorist threats are part of the reason. Japanese economic data looks ugly with lower production in manufacturing and a jump in unemployment.

- Black Blade

Black Blade (11/28/02; 17:59:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 90445)
New terror fears sweep through Asia
http://www.msnbc.com/news/841007.asp?0cv=CB10

Snippit:

New fears of terrorism swept parts of Asia on Thursday when security guards were posted at Sydney's Opera House and Australia and Canada shut down their embassies in Manila, citing specific threats of Muslim extremist attacks, possibly within days. Both governments strongly warned their citizens to stay away from the Philippines, long wracked by violence by militant groups linked to Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida network. In Manila, armed police closed streets, set up barricades and circled the Australian embassy. Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said Canberra had received a "very specific" intelligence report on Wednesday night that warned of a possible Islamic militant attack. "It is not only location-specific, targeting the Australian Embassy itself, but also it's time-specific in the sense that we are talking over the next few days," Downer told Australian Broadcasting Corp. radio. Downer said threats had also been made against targets linked to other nations, which he declined to identify.

Black Blade: We will likely see many more attacks, especially as we get to the Christmas holidays. "Interesting Times"



Black Blade (11/28/02; 17:37:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 90444)
Strange?

Looks like a double post but I didn't think it went through the first time. Strange day today - the "Turkey Gods" are out for revenge I guess.

- Black Blade

Black Blade (11/28/02; 17:33:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 90443)
Analysts Predict Slow Holiday Sales for PCs
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/scitech/DailyNews/PCholidaysales021127.html

Snippit:

That's because many analysts forecast that fourth quarter sales � traditionally the strongest selling period for the high-tech industry � will show little growth over the pervious quarter. "This is not a great story," said George Schiffer, a principal analyst for Dataquest who notes that traditionally the industry makes double-digit sales gains at this time of the year. "At least there's growth," he said. "But it's less than historic growth." "There's still low demand for new PCs and [consumer] households are holding onto their PCs for [longer]," said Jed Kolko, a senior analyst with Forrester Research in Framingham, Mass. Although Forrester hasn't yet finalized their own year-end sales figures, "Based on what consumers tell us they're doing, we expect this year to finish worse than the previous year," he said.

Black Blade: Like calculators the price will continue to drop forcing most manufacturers out of business. The Tech boom is over (actually is has been since march 2000). I don't expect any rebound either. The same thing will happen with other tech toys like DVDs and PDAs as well as other toys. It comes to a point where one computer is enough for several years rather than every 6 months. The "New Paradigm" just didn't pan out as well as some thought.


Black Blade (11/28/02; 17:25:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 90442)
Analysts Predict Slow Holiday Sales for PCs
http://abcnews.go.com/sections/scitech/DailyNews/PCholidaysales021127.html

Snippit:

That's because many analysts forecast that fourth quarter sales � traditionally the strongest selling period for the high-tech industry � will show little growth over the pervious quarter. "There's still low demand for new PCs and [consumer] households are holding onto their PCs for [longer]," said Jed Kolko, a senior analyst with Forrester Research in Framingham, Mass. Although Forrester hasn't yet finalized their own year-end sales figures, "Based on what consumers tell us they're doing, we expect this year to finish worse than the previous year," he said.

Black Blade: Just how much computer is enough? At some point the upper limit is soon reached for most software and Internet applications, and newer higher priced computers are senseless. The fast growth in Tech is over and the ever increasing gains in Tech shares are finished. Like calculators, computers and other tech toys have dropped in price and will continue to fall in price leaving any gains very limited. So much for the "new economy".



Black Blade (11/28/02; 17:11:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 90441)
Pension Plans Face Underfunding Next Year
http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=3MCXXJJAPHUZCCRBAE0CFEY?type=businessNews&storyID=1821437

Snippit:

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Only one in five corporate pension plans will have enough funds to fully cover liabilities next year if weak economic conditions persist, according to an analysis released by a consulting firm this week. The firm, Watson Wyatt & Co., also said Monday if the weak stock market continues, the percentage of companies that will need to contribute to their pension plans next year could more than double to 65 percent. U.S. companies will have to pump billions of dollars into pension plans weakened by the current bear market. Federal law requires companies to protect the solvency of pension plans, which guarantee benefits to retired workers.

Black Blade: This will be next year's major scandal. Companies teetering on the edge of bankruptcy will not likely make it. Those pensioners that got taken when Enron, WorldCon, etc. collapsed were just the beginning. It should get rather "interesting".

As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.



Sierra Madre (11/28/02; 17:01:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 90440)
Blair speaks about Europe...
Mikal: in your earlier post 90431 about Blair's views on Europe, you wrote

"But he went on to embrace a new constitution for Europe, as part of the union's enlargement plans, stressing it should make clear "that the driving ideology is indeed a union of nations not a superstate subsuming national sovereignty and national identity"

Blair is the prototype of the mass-man and such a mentality is entirely alien to any concept of limited government. Further, all written constitutions are extremely weak; true constitutions are written in the hearts of people. A written constitution might be compared to a marriage contract, a written document that guarantees a cuckolded husband and a husband with a mistress. Compare with a marriage ceremony that only asks: "Do you promise to love, honor and OBEY etc" for the woman - now obsolete words, of course.

What Blair says claims to be against, is really exactly what he is for: a superstate subsuming national sovereignty and national identity".

The contrary cannot fit in the present day mentality.

Sierra

Black Blade (11/28/02; 16:45:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 90439)
Wall Street a bear trap
http://finance.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,5575291%255E521,00.html

Snippit:

MORGAN Stanley chief economist Stephen Roach, who has correctly picked most Wall Street trends over the last five years, believes that the big rise on Wall Street since the lows of last month is a bear trap. There is little doubt that as word of his pronouncement spread around Wall Street it contributed to the latest fall. And from my own sources I can see clear evidence that the US economy is slowing again � not good news when the market expects profits to rise more than 14 per cent this quarter.

"My fear is that this is yet another rally that falls victim to lingering weakness in the US economy," Roach says. "The seemingly schizophrenic character of economic recovery is the essence of the post-bubble business cycle. Restrained by the headwinds of excess debt, sub-par saving, excess capacity, a massive current account deficit, and the lack of pent-up demand, there is a compelling case for a persistently sub-par recovery."


Black Blade: Don't let the current Bear Market rally fool you. If you want to play the game then be extremely careful and be extremely selective. It's going to get very ugly before it gets any better. Wall Street trading now is more a matter of desperation where traders are grasping at straws. Lately some of those straws have been bogus unemployment data and "pro forma" earnings gains on vastly lowered earnings estimates. When the sleepers awaken and discover that the emperor wears no clothes it will be back to business as usual for the grizzlies.



DummyANI (11/28/02; 16:38:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 90438)
RE:Gandalf the White (11/28/02; 10:26:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 90424)
http://www.globalstewards.org/aircar.htm
I have no-intention to "trick" you.

Please see the above-link. Japanese general public were completely knockouted by Palladium-squeeze.

MK (11/28/02; 16:23:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 90437)
A Happy Thanksgiving to All. . .

Many thanks to all of you who have made such a noble, painstaking and enlightening contribution to the discussion on gold and the economy. We are all wiser because of you. And we are all greater because of this Table
Round. . . .

Gandalf, my wizardrous friend, have brought to this Table the finest wine from the Castle's cellar and pour it for all. . . .

A Toast

"Onward, knights and ladies . . . . .I salute you and your remarkable contributions!!"

To all our friends from other lands, we invite you to lift a glass tonight in thanks with us. . . .a great American tradition.

CoBra(too) (11/28/02; 15:44:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 90432)
@ Mikal - EU - Blair -Forecast for Dramatic Changes
The EU Convent, presided by Giscard-Estaing has addressed most of these issues and they will be debated early next year.

As it took quite a while to formulate a constitution for the early US - Old Europe may have to bide more time to overcome its petty differences of many centuries old nation states.

In contrast to giving a new country a common legislature - Europe, after crippling wars started from scratch and the Montan-Union for coal and steel - a common sense economic re-development program (on the basis of hard assets...)- becoming the EEG and finally the EU. It now already has a common currency (including 15% of gold reserves, not redeemable, only backed) following the script of economic necessity - and hopefully the convent will lay out the, however, bare foundations of a common constitution for all members.

A remarkable goal, which may not be achieved tomorrow, though the fact that it is at least undertaken is to be lauded.
... and as Otto Habsburg, son of the last austrian/ hungarian emperor and a real pan-european said last week at his 90th birthday celebration: the charm of europe is it's cultural divergence - may the old empire be the ideal of a new and united europe ...

Isn't this the very idealistic foundation the USA was built upon?

A great Thanksgiving to all - cb2





mikal (11/28/02; 14:59:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 90431)
Blair speaks out for EU
http://www.ananova.com
Ananova:�
Blair forecasts 'dramatic change' for EU
Tony Blair has predicted dramatic change for the European Union - which he said was weak, hesitant and struggling to cope with its existing responsibilities.
The Prime Minister has called for a re-think of all community institutions, and an overhaul of its recently-adopted and controversial security and defence policy to lift it above "low-level peacekeeping".
He has also called for a strengthening, too, of Europe's foreign policy on a "step by step" basis.
His comments are bound to fuel Euro-sceptics' arguments that the Prime Minister sees himself as a future President of Europe - an office he argues should be strengthened so that the EU could be "taken seriously" at international summits.....
Mr Blair went on: "Europe's leadership is too weak. The musical chairs of the Council Presidency produces inefficiency and inconsistency. The enforcement of European law is too haphazard.
"Europe's role in the world is too weak. We have made a start on building a common voice for Europe but progress has been too slow".....
But he went on to embrace a new constitution for Europe, as part of the union's enlargement plans, stressing it should make clear "that the driving ideology is indeed a union of nations not a superstate subsuming national sovereignty and national identity".....Complete article at link
Story filed: 18:19 Thursday 28th November 2002


Operative (11/28/02; 14:11:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 90430)
Happy Thanksgiving !
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/archives/22200111/default.html
Best wishes to all here at the castle on this Thanksgiving Day. Each year finds me truly appreciating more of life's gifts and treasures, especially friends and loved ones. So much to be thankfull for. The link above is to last year at the Forum on Thanksgiving Day. A good chance to take a look back on the trail and see some of the ground we have covered since. Of special note is the Abraham Lincoln Thanksgiving Day Address dated Oct. 3, 1863 posted by tedw.

Off for once more slice of pie and a cup of coffee.
Last note. Have had a flock of turkeys hanging out in the woods behind the farm all fall. Last week I seen nary hide nor feather of the group. Sure enough, first thing this morning they showed up. Do you think they are aware of Thanksgiving day? Maybe next year I will celebrate a week early. <grin>

Hipplebeck (11/28/02; 11:43:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 90429)
Derivatives

Derivatives are the magical, mystical art of controlling the price of grain in India by shuffling paper in Chicago.


Thanks Black Blade, but that didn't really resolve the contradiction in the paragraph.

Boilermaker (11/28/02; 11:43:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 90428)
Liberty Head msg#: 90426
I thought someone might fuss about my solution. What if they were willing to buy Riverside County for getting CA out of debt? However, if you insist on going it alone with Gray Davis I respect your rights and will try to sell them my farm (proceeds to be invested in gold of course). ;-)

Have a great Thanksgiving,
Boilermaker





Black Blade (11/28/02; 11:17:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 90427)
Re: Hipplebeck � Unemployment

Sorry I don't really have time to go into detail as I am heading out the door. The short version is that the last three weeks of data have been skewed due to holiday shortened weeks. That said, there are several temporary hires for retail and shipping that offset the number of layoffs. Also, few employers wish to be viewed as "unfeeling" by laying off workers during the holidays (a quirk that some employers have feelings? Hmmm�). Also, many have exhausted their unemployment benefits and are no longer considered unemployed. Congress had pressed the President to sign an extension of benefits for the million or so workers who will be unemployed, benefits exhausted, and no longer counted. The Presidents essentially said "let them eat cake" (yeah, with apologies to Marie Antoinette). It should be noted that announced layoffs have been running about 50% in recent weeks, so we should see a spike in the data in the new year (unless of course the BLS writes it off due to "seasonality" or some other bogus filter). Also. Temporary hires are not counted as they are not likely to qualify for benefits so again the data will be skewed lower. The Trolls on Wall Street "conveniently" ignore these facts when they tout the "improved" unemployment data. Either they are being deceptive or they are stupid. I don't think that most are stupid (but who knows). Also, many unemployed have simply given up looking for employment and are exhausting their lines of credit � notice how bankruptcies and home foreclosures are running at a record level? In short, the numbers just don't add up.

Cheers!

- Black Blade


Liberty Head (11/28/02; 11:12:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 90426)
RE: Boilermaker #90422

May I assume that you don't live in California?
Please don't invite any more socialists to Southern California. We have more than our fair share. We need at least two more people that think small government is a good idea. ;-)

Cheers

Black Blade (11/28/02; 11:00:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 90425)
Updated Daily Market Report
http://www.usagold.com/DailyQuotes.html

Due to what I would wish to call extraordinary events, I have updated the Daily Market Report though the Gold market is closed for the U.S. holiday - Thanksgiving Day. Also a report detailing the possible renewal of the Washington Agreement and Gold/Property buying in Vietnam report are included.

Now I am off to devour some charred avian flesh and a couple of pies followed up by copious amounts of fermented liquids. Cheers all!

- Black Blade

Gandalf the White (11/28/02; 10:26:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 90424)
Sir "ANI"
SIR, You have attempted to "trick" us with the inscrutable oriental method of referring to yourself as a "Dummy", BUT you have failed, and we see you there in the "Land of the Setting Sun" as a very wise and multilingual "Shogun" GOLDHEART type !!
WELCOME again, and perhaps you would like now to get a new handle ?
<;-)


Hipplebeck (11/28/02; 10:17:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 90423)
Question
http://www.2020insight.com/marketwrap.shtml
This paragraph is included in the market summary at the 2020 insight webpage.
I can't reconcile what it says here. The statement seems to contradict. Are there more or less unemployed?
It says initial claims are down, but number of workers receiving benefits up. What am I missing?


snip:
Layoffs have slowed dramatically in the past few weeks, supporting the view that the labor market is improving. The four-week average for first-time claims for state jobless benefits fell by 11,250 to 385,750, the lowest in 15 weeks. Initial claims in the latest week fell by 17,000 to 364,000, the lowest since just before the recession started in early 2001. "The four-week average may be more informative," a Labor Department spokesman said. The number of workers receiving state benefits rose by 91,000 to 3.65 million, the most in six weeks. The moving average for continuing claims rose by 17,500 to 3.60 million.


Boilermaker (11/28/02; 07:51:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 90422)
Sierra Madre msg#: 90389
Sierra, I agree that it's unlikely that Arab countries will become industrialized and also with your proposition that camel and sheep herding could be a very happy existance. For instance I have retired from my career in fossil power generation and find greater satisfaction working my small farm and my limited oil and gas production. My hands get dirty several times every day.

Unfortunately many ME countries are cursed with untold riches of oil and gas. Further there will always be an element within a society that will aspire to wealth and power. The people who have risen to power in the oil rich arab/Muslim nations have not been the most benign leaders in the world. They have a legitimate complaint with the US for its arogant domination of the world's money and resources but they seem to be going to extremes to vent their frustration.

The existance of tiny Isreal in the midst of this sea of Muslims will no doubt continue to be like a festering sore. I suppose we should have let Germany finish them off 60 years ago (outrageous suggestion such as I often make just to put things in stark terms). But we didn't. Thinking outside the box, I would propose that we invite Israel to move to Southern California (or any venue of mutual agreement). The holy sites would need to become protected zones and open to all visitors. Call me a goldbug for world peace through Israeli re-resettlement.

Shalom,

Boilermaker

DummyANI (11/28/02; 07:37:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 90421)
RE:Belgian (11/28/02; 05:37:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 90414)
The masses of Japanese save yen-chashe at Japanese commercial-bank. And BOJ will never sell US-bond or US-note. I think the masses of Japanese hold gold only less than 1000 tonne with their buying power (1400 trillion yen-chashe=$10 trillion dollar). Because FOREX operations are very speculative for Yen-Dollar exchange, for example, at 09/10/2001 1047yen/gram = $275/ounce, at 09/17/2001 1115yen/gram= $291/ounce, at 09/21/2001 1081yen/gram= $290/ounce. Furthermore at 08/17/1998 gold was 1325yen/gram= $289/ounce at 146yen/$, and at 10/19/1998 1080yen/gram= $300/ounce at 114yen/$, so that Japanese general public are always buying gold, and always the top loser over twenty-years. In Tokyo-future market, gold is contracted by yen-base, dollar is not permitted.
At present, Japanese general public cannot convince yen-futures. But Japanese general public are familiar with future-trade before 350-years ago. They are always watching POG very carefully. If they convince that the yen is decline, I think they buy gold not dollar nor euro. In Tokyo-future market, gold-market is greater than Platinum over x-7-times volume at present.

I think BoJ will never intervene Gold-future market, because they have no-right with Tokyo-free-Gold-market.

�gOr haven't I correctly grasped your point ?�h >>> Not Correct.
Compressed-air driven cars have been developed by International Motor Development (Venture Name) at Belgium, and their production is worked at Spain.
Compressed-air driven car has a compressed-air tank as a source of energy on a large scale, so that the weight of the source of energy is very light, no-burning mechanism, and no-air-pollution. So that gasoline or LPG-gas is never needed at all. User can fill air-tank at home, not at gas-stand by a compressor ( driven by electric-energy). I think this compressed-air engine can change a world economic shceme fundamentally.


Arcticfox (11/28/02; 07:26:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 90420)
De Ja Vu...
Palaces 'Banned' By Saddam
Nov 27, 2002
Source: Sun Online
Saddam Hussein brought war in Iraq closer last night after hints that UN weapons inspectors would be banned from searching his palaces.

Chief inspector Hans Blix said Iraqi officials told him "entry into presidential sites was not the same thing as entry into factories". But Mr Blix said bluntly: "The Security Council authorises us to go anywhere, anytime and we intend to do so."

A UN resolution demands that the inspectors get full access and threatens dictator Saddam with "serious consequences" if he blocks them. Dr Blix also poured scorn on Saddam's insistence Iraq had no weapons of mass destruction. He demanded proof that stockpiles were destroyed and accounts from chemical factories.

Saddam is believed to have arsenals of biological weapons beneath his huge palaces. He also uses bunkers beneath hospitals and schools. But the UN team showed off equipment they claim will spot anything Saddam has.

It includes ground-penetrating radar that can uncover underground facilities and radiation detectors. Saddam's latest show of contempt came a day before the inspectors start work.

A British diplomat said: "It looks like we'll go down a depressingly familiar route � ending in military action."



Arcticfox (11/28/02; 07:19:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 90419)
Sums up a lot which is covered on this site....
http://www.goldseek.com/cgi-bin/news/InternationalForecaster/1038079928.php
Snip..

GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM, PALLADIUM AND DIAMONDS

America is sitting on the precipice of failure. We are not defeatists we are realists. We are about to embark on a war that is to enrich conspirators and perhaps end up destroying civilization. As we've known it, the American public and the world has been the victim of the biggest scam in recent history, which is fiat money and perpetual war for perpetual peace to cover the deceit and destruction of that specie. One way or the other we face terrible tribulation. What will be the event that finally triggers the collapse? We don't know. What we do know is there are many things that can cause it that we know of and many things other than what we expect. 75% of the reserves of foreign countries are denominated in dollars. We believe as the economic and financial situation worsens those dollars will be sold for local currencies and gold. A particular case is China, which has no allegiance to anyone but themselves. A sale of $200 billion and a purchase of gold in that amount would collapse the American economy and send gold soaring. America has its military settled into the Middle East and would be of little use as a destructive force to retaliate against the Chinese and perhaps others. China is moving to back its currency with gold. A nation that saves close to 20% of its income might also be large buyers of gold. As you can see China could easily be the catalyst that brings about higher gold prices and a return to monetary sanity.


slingshot (11/28/02; 07:15:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 90418)
Happy Thanksgiving.
***********************************
Today we find the Real Gold in our life. Family and Friends.
Wishing you all a safe and Happy Thanksgiving.

Slingshot-------------<> Gobble, Gobble.

Cavan Man (11/28/02; 06:46:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 90417)
JPM and US Gov. Partnership
This arrangement has existed since the very early 1900's or perhaps before. So, whither the cabal? How much risk is their really for JPM in holding their gold derivative book? The derivatives are used to mask monetary problems as derivatives can be utilized to "master" many commodity prices. Defending the global sovereignty of the USD is priority numero uno. The game goes on until it can't be played anymore. Are we close? I think so but it could be yet a long time coming. When the game ends some say all contracts will be settled in cash but I say there is a lot of gold in NV. That same partnership just needs to dig it up and refine it. Eminent domain by any other name is still confiscation. Better look for jrs. at pennies. Great leverage there and in physical gold.

Cavan Man (11/28/02; 06:24:51MT - usagold.com msg#: 90416)
otish mountain
RE: BOC Official Gold Reserves
Canada like the US has proven gold reserves beneath her sovereign soil. Someone once said there are underground gold mines and above ground gold mines. They are right. Then, there are derivatives.

Boilermaker (11/28/02; 05:58:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 90415)
Happy Thanksgiving to All
We Yanks have dodged the economic bullet for another year and can celebrate this day in relative prosperity. Perhaps next year will be different and we will be celebrating our survival as were the original Pilgrims.

Anyway, have a good one and may your families be with you

Cheers,
Boilermaker

Belgian (11/28/02; 05:37:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 90414)
@ DummyANI
Your thought on the dollar's only competitor being Tech. innovation is completely new to me and worth thinking about it. Thanks.

But how do you see this related to the masses of Japanese dollar-reserves and no further adding to their existant Gold-reserves ? If, as you suggest, the yen is to decline dramatically against the dollar...why add Gold ?

Platinum and its consumption in catalyc converters is as Gold transformed into overpaid jewelry. If precious metals promotions in Japan focus on platinum rather than on INVESTMENT GOLD FOR PROTECTION...I'm considering this as a maneuver to derive the fenominal potential for Gold in Japan, away from the precious, because of scarecety of available Gold and the risks of disturbing the POG management ?

Just imagine, the effects on the public, if Japanese officials (BoJ) should signal Gold accumulation for dollars ? Imagine the effect on POG if and when those trillions of savings within the Japanese public should start a buying stampede on Gold ?

As long as oil-prices, repeatedly can be brought back into the 25$ range...no alternative will replace it as a source of energy on a large scale. Please note that we are already driving cars for more than 30 years now on LPG-gas that is costing 1/4 the price of fuel(gas) ! But LPG has only a marketshare of under 5 % and never grew larger.

Or haven't I correctly grasped your point ?

Topaz (11/28/02; 05:22:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 90413)
Bonds and Gold
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/multicharts.asp?symbols=fvxy%2Ctnxy%2Ctyxy%2Cgcz02&period=D&varminutes=&bartype=line&bardensity=LOW&r=&go.x=12&go.y=11
Gold is holding it's own vis Bond Yields, still looking for 4.5% on the Long Bond. Bond-Stock Mkt's are in lockstep on a stronger Dollar.
There's NO justification for higher Bond Yields, likewise NO reason for the SM to go much higher from here imo.

Belgian (11/28/02; 05:09:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 90412)
VERY, very close to a lot of "culmination" points !
A break through the 4,30% on the %US_10 yrs, means interest rates up ! Passing 250 on the CRB (now 233) means that a flat-horizontal 20 yrs old range will be broken en indicates the dollar's slip sliding away. Most stock market indices have almost reached their make or break points as well.

Conclusion : Everything is in concert as being orchestrated by a magical director/master !

The Kenya atrocity is a pr�lude of what will happen when the ME is occupied. Not precisely a good feeding bottom for an economic relance....hummhumm.
Nice holidays to you all.

silvercollector (11/28/02; 05:02:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 90411)
Bank of Canada
...more morons

Topaz (11/28/02; 04:49:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 90410)
Slowly the Worm turns.
So, whats ahead for PoG?
Having watched the Market for several Years now, I get the feeling we're on the cusp of a defining moment in Gold.
A little tale if I may:-
As a requirement of my Superannuation (retirement) Fund, I am expected to have the Physical Gold audited per Annum - normally the Auditor dispences with the requirement as I've been a long term Client and am taken on trust. This year however he deemed it necessary to sight my holdings so, in I trapsed, Bullion in a Dep't Store bag, to have it Audited.
Had I realised the interest my modest little stash was going to create I'd have taken in some REAL PRETTY Coins other than the generic Nuggets, Sovs etc that make up my official retirement portfolio.
Everyone in the Office was milling around, ooing and arring, asking questions..."where can I get some" etc, a marked difference to Three Yr's ago when a similar Audit caused NO interest whatsoever.
Hardly a reason to call a defining moment in Gold but, it's long been my contention a grassroots buying spree, bought about by continual systemic corruption, (which we are witnessing daily of late) will be the undoing of the status-quo.
Systemic stresses are being noted by the Masses....the call to act can't be far away.

DummyANI (11/28/02; 04:47:22MT - usagold.com msg#: 90409)
RE: Belgian (11/28/02; 01:30:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 90408)
I admit your �g Japan is a US vazal and can look back at 50 years of growing prosperity and peace under the big US-dollar umbrella of protection and commerce.�h

But, I cannot agree with your �gThe US$'s one and only competitor was and still is GOLD ! �g. I think that the US$'s only competitor is a Technology Innovation.
Japan has a free future market about Precious Metals. So if Gold is up about Yen, $10 trillion-dollar buying power rushes to GOLD. And Japanese general public is always a top loser over twenty-years. Because Yen-rate was 360yen/$ at 1971, 80yen/$ at 1995, and 122yen/$ at present.

Japanese only power is Auto-exports, which are drived by gasoline-engines and always needed fuel-oil produced by a crude-oil. Further according to anti-air pollution, Platinum is consumed over 90% by auto-makers, not by the general public.

I read very interesting news in Japanese news-paper about Belgian Venture company, International Motor Development. This company developed a compressed-air driven car. This car is completely air-pollution free, no-Platinum, no- fuel-oil produced by a crude-oil.
At present, US and Japanese major auto-makers are preoccupied with fuel-cell cars which are also required Platinum.

After compressed-air driven cars are delivered by International Motor Development, Japanese Auto-export dramatically shrinks, Japanese YEN also dramatically falls, so that GOLD rushes over $1000, a crude oil is under $20.



Belgian (11/28/02; 01:30:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 90408)
@ DummyANI
My 2 cents on Japan : Japan was one out of the 3 powers in the WWII axis of evil and while Germany was cut in half and occupied after WWII, the Japanese warrior has been taken care of by the US as heavyweight in the allied forces of that period. Simplier : Japan is a US vazal and can look back at 50 years of growing prosperity and peace under the big US-dollar umbrella of protection and commerce.

The US$'s one and only competitor was and still is GOLD ! Therefore, Japan is supposed not to take this Gold in its arms as this should be interpreted as a very unfriendly gesture and in conflict with "made in Japan" exports to the US !

At present, Platinum investment is heavely promoted in Japan and the general public is briefed on this fenomenon on a regular basis through the media. Yes, of course...Japanese were always preferred platinum above Gold...oooogghhh, those crazy housewifes who suddenly, for God knows what reason, started to load these Gold-Bullion, Kilo-bars...already changed their mind and stopped this crazy thing !? Yes, lady...the ruling world's fraternity of *financiers*, advise plantinum instead of the old barbaric relic.

This while the enormous Chinese continent is opening up for 1,6 billion people to hold GOLD . Here the "financiers" have very little to suggest. China's massive ultra-cheap exports to the US are desperately needed to keep the dollar alive. Japan's massive dollar holding must remain locked to keep the dollar alive. The euro must be countered to keep the dollar alive. Oil must be cheap to keep the dollar alive. Gold must remain cheap to keep the dollar alive.....
Japan must hold the dollar in order to stay alive....
The globe is dollarized and feeld uncomfortable with it...but must tolerate it to keep going. What a viscious circle, isn't it ?

More and more bank-stocks want to pay out in stock-dividends rather than cash-dividends. The shareholders don't like this. ING goes as far as paying cash-dividends with the proceeds of new stock sales ! WAWWWWWW. Ponzi all over. Pay dividends to your shareholders with the money of new shareholders....

4gold (11/28/02; 00:03:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 90407)
Otish Mountian
I read somewhere that the gold holdings the Bank of Canada reports has been leased out.

No physical gold left.



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