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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 8/28/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
Gandalf the White
(08/28/01; 23:39:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 60426)
WOWSERS BB !!
Did you see the NIKKEI just break through the 11,000 level?
LOOK OUT BELOW !
<;-)
Gandalf the White
(08/28/01; 23:10:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 60425)
Question for Randy
site steward (08/28/01; 19:22:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 60410) (closing remark) "Choose gold in the form of sovereigns and have the best of all worlds."
R.
---
Sir SS -- Other than you wish to sell more Sovereigns, is there another reason that you recommend them over other forms of Au?
Thanks!
<;-)
uponroof
(08/28/01; 21:33:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 60424)
Dollar Forced Out of Russian Economy
http://top.rbc.ru/english/index.shtml?/news/english/2001/08/28/28122455_bod.shtml
Some signs of divorcing the dollar, from Russia, as reported in this Russian article
"....According to Russia's Central Bank information, a new tendency emerged on the Russian market - the ruble started replacing the dollar as the means of payment. This conclusion is based on the analysis of the country's credit market. According to the Izvestia newspaper, the total amount of credits granted by Russia's banking sector (both in rubles and foreign currency) over the first five months of 2001 reached RUR 1.152 trillion (about $39.23bn), having increased by 20.4 percent since the beginning of the year. A growth in ruble credits amounted to 23.7 percent, and in foreign currency credits – to 15.1 percent. As a result, the percentage of credits in hard currency decreased. At the beginning of the year, 38.5 percent of the credits were given in foreign currency, and at the beginning of June this figure decreased to 36.8 percent. This is the lowest level since 1997. That is, the dollar is weakening on the Russian credit market.
At the same time, a total volume of deposits attracted by credit organizations by the beginning of June amounted to RUR 811.1bn (about $27.54bn), which is 16.6 percent more than at the beginning of the year. However, hard currency deposits grow faster than ruble deposits. Their volume increased by 19.1 percent (deposits of individuals – by 22.3 percent) over the first five months of the year, while the volume of ruble deposits went up by 14.2 percent (deposits of individuals – by 15 percent). As a result, the percentage of ruble deposits decreased from 51.5 percent at the beginning of the year to 50.5 percent at the beginning of June.
So, more credits are given in rubles now, and more deposits are made in dollars, on the contrary. In response, banks are trying to maintain the same level of interest rates for deposits. However, the Central Bank has indicated that EURO accounts could be opened from now on, and dollar deposits could be converted into EUROs easily. Is this not a sign that the country's financial authorities not only began forcing the dollar from the market but are preparing to go over to the EURO?
Netking
(08/28/01; 20:56:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 60423)
Hits
Bravo to CPM on the excellent site hit stats . . . affirms they have the best golden place in town yes. If the estimated 25,000 hits/day had a generous average of 5 visits a day/person . . . would equate to a solid base of at least 5,000+ regular daily readers & maybe an equal number of casual visitors/lurkers? wait for these numbers to "blow out of the water" as the POG rises . . .
site steward
(08/28/01; 20:47:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 60422)
For Cavan Man and auspec: The Central Bank Gold Agreement of 26 September 1999
Certainly, it was announced in Washington, D.C., but I believe the encouragement for market participants to call it the Washington Agreement was driven by the World Gold Council as a positive-spin media ploy. And why not... in policy and practice the operations of the United States were not at odds with the significant elements of this agreement among 15 European central banks.
Why was it announced in Washington, of all places? Perhaps the Europeans had an eye toward "PR" (public relations), going for the greatest effect.
To be sure, the gathering in Washington was not a specially convened meeting for that purpose by any stretch of the imagination. It was simply the predictable occasion (and announcement opportunity) of the Annual Meeting of the IMF, with a gathering of the G7(8,9,10...) in conjunction. Extraordinary agreements like this typically do not spring up overnight, and I am inclined to think that the legwork/headwork was actually done earlier that Summer in Europe, perhaps under the auspices and shelter of a particular cylindrical-shaped building in Basle, the common meetingplace for troubled central bankers wanting to kick around options for viable solutions with peers.
Call it what you will, unless current courses are changed, the announcement and agreement marked a watershed for gold in the international monetary arena. Now, we only await follow-through of the marketplace coupled with official reinforcement/affirmation of resolve.
Inertia of the marketplace can be such a tiresome thing... but also quite favorable when you put time to work in your favor. Sometimes acquisition with confidence wants time, eh?
R.
uponroof
(08/28/01; 20:31:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 60421)
Blanchard and GE.....etc
Recall from Ed Bugos' (Goldenbar) piece on fascism that GE also owns CNBC > WSJ > besides Blanchard, who btw, is pulling nothing more than a publicity stunt in condemning bullion. It draws attention and allows them to push their Central America shipwreck numismatic stash, which hasn't been moving as well as expected. The stunt is serving all 'related' interests well.
**************************
Speaking of numismatics. 'The American Advisor' today reported that a very large fund is about to buy into the numismatic market. The reporter states: "I have personal knowledge that this will happen". They believe this fund will experience success which will in turn encourage other funds into similar numismatic investing. This may cause an explosion in the rare coin market.
***************************
Article in Sept 3rd issue of TIME magazine entitled:
"Are You Worried Yet...One spark Could Ignite a Worldwide
Economic Crisis"
The opening paragraph: Think of yourself flying across the country, an engine starts sputtering....cause for alarm? Sure. But the pilot does that folksy number "Aw shucks little problem here" and assures you the others can take the strain. Then a second engine goes out. The sweat trickles down your neck but you reckon you'll make it to the ground safely. But if the third, and then the fourth flame out.....
The metaphors:
Airplane > economy.
Pilot > Wall Street Gurus
Other engines can take the strain > the consumer will take up the slack,...housing is still doing OK,..Social Security privatization of the Stock Market,...markets always go up,...etc. etc. etc."
It is encouraging to see more and more mainstream reports of this type. The economic growth engines are in fact flaming out, and since 'globalization', every financial system in the world is on board.
The solution?: Have the pilot, during freefall, adjust the altimeter to read a steady 20,000 ft. > Supress POG ******************************
btw-Japan recently making a bid to build a better bonepile:
Toshiba 18,000 jobs
Hitachi 20,000 jobs
Fujitsu 16,400 jobs
*******************************
btw2-The History Channel, seeking consultation on their GOLD! documentary content, was advised by The American Advisor, to point out how the public's purchasing power was negatively affected by delinking from gold. The folks at The History Channel did not think that information worthy of broadcast. Is anybody surprised?
********************************
Lets not forget....
Paul Kazreel Director of Economic Research for Northern Trust Investment Bank "Keep one thing in mind girls and boys....If printing money created genuine wealth, the Wymarr (sp) Republic between the wars would have been the richest nation in the world". (Recall 1930's Germany in which a wheelbarrow of cash was needed to buy a loaf of bread).
slingshot
(08/28/01; 20:19:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 60420)
Nickel62 Msg# 60414
Measure of Impact
I too have thought about the impact on gold by just buying what I can. How many others are doing the same? The conclusion is that I am at the cutting edge or ahead of the curve. The impact will be how fast the price of gold goes up. I have read in another article that the Powers that Be do not care if the little guy cashes in on a few crumbs. They just do not want the big buyers to get to much. If you think along the Titanic.It was not a big hole but a multitude of small holes that did her in. Thinking along this line we will not see our impact till the short or squeeze of gold. Accumulate this dirt cheap gold and let the IMPACT take care of itself.
Slingshot
Cavan Man
(08/28/01; 20:09:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 60419)
PS: auspec and g'night to all...
In the words of a cynical New Yorker I know, "the paper game has alwyas blown up." To that I add, what's different this time; derivatives? Checkmate (mate). My eight year old got my Queen tonight! Kind regards....CM
Cavan Man
(08/28/01; 20:04:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 60418)
auspec
Love that nautical metaphor! Ever read Moby Dick? That is simply one of the finest pieces of literature ever written.
Cavan Man
(08/28/01; 19:57:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 60417)
auspec
I think the Kitco another is a fraud. Also, I think Another left the friendly confines of the forum here due to some very uncivil and base comments made by a former poster.
I too picked up upon this "Mr. Speaker" posturing. I asked MK if TG had lost his marbles (not likely) or if Another was back. My goodness; I can't believe I am talking about this. I must be insane.
Forget A/FOA for a minute. The case to buy gold is overwhelming on many counts. For me, the real reason has always been "monetary". We've made no progress and are no longer guessing as to why because of GATA.
Yes, this is the year or early next.
auspec
(08/28/01; 19:53:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 60416)
CM
Steady as she blows! Not to worry, CM, it's simply the regular blather out the spout.
Regards,
auspec
Cavan Man
(08/28/01; 19:51:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 60415)
auspec saddle burrs
I don't think the US is omnipotent; invincible. There is always a weakness to be probed, identified and exploited. This is the best country in the world but we have a sizable achilles heel.
I'm a little tired of hearing about the WA also in the context you imply but, how 'bout the meeting was held in our nation's capital to underscore a point; the point being the contents of the message? Afterwards, what should the US have said? Or, why should they have said anything?
The US is definitely part of the decision making process but I wonder which fiddler is calling the tune.
Don't let the bastards get you down.
nickel62
(08/28/01; 19:44:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 60414)
Loyal readers of this site are making those hits I think!
The Twenty five thousand hits every day is a number that sounds big but I imagine that I probably contribute around ten to fifteen every day myself. Reading and then picking up information and then moving back to the necessities of my job and life and then returning later. I would be very interested to know if our host thinks that the twenty five thousand represents anywhere near that number of lurkers? I frankly have no idea. In the clarity of thought rankings and intelligence of the contributors this group is almost with out peer. I am sure that the numbers that benefit from the data collection and analysis is legion. I guess I just wonder if we are going to change the way the world thinks I am looking for a measure of our impact. Lurkers who have two cents to throw into the discussion would of course be welcome.
auspec
(08/28/01; 19:44:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 60413)
ANOTHER?
From FOA Part 2, msg. 101:
"I {FOA} asked ***our speaker*** to return and address....."
"Good evening Mr. Kosares, nice of you to spare some time to join ****us****."
FOA has again started using a 3rd person in this Trail piece. I had hinted at this being ANOTHER when this first started occurring, yet no one else seems similarly inclined. We have been promised messages from ANOTHER, but I fail to remember that transpiring. Did I miss it, or are they right there in front of us? Someone has twice recently posted at Kitco under ANOTHER {thoughts}, what gives?
Regardless of source, all these thoughts must be analyzed, integrated, and somehow{e} pass the test of time. I'm watching and waiting, this is the year!
Cavan Man
(08/28/01; 19:43:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 60412)
Forum angst
I've seen this repeatedly and periodically over the last two and one half years here. Steady lads!
auspec
(08/28/01; 19:32:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 60411)
Burrs Under My Saddle
Sorry, they just won't go away. I have grown totally weary about how{e} the United States was left out in the cold and surprised by the Washington Agreement. First of all, if memory even remotely still serves me, 'Washington' likely refers to the US Crapital, to which these various signees were invited by those that regularly 'hold court' in our nation's capital. So somehow{e} these 15 countries sprung this announcement on the US? Doesn't pass the methane test.
I have repeatedly stated that the US's response to the WA was totally out of character, as in there was NO response. Think about it, NO RESPONSE! They had no reason to respond, because they were NOT left out of the deal. They held the meeting, invited the various countries, and hammered out some piece of paper that had no teeth or conviction behind it. The whole thing is contrived, US included. Do you think the various bankers/countries/elitists don't have the full picture in front of all of them? It is really quite astounding that more 'leaks' have not come forward through this whole process. Gotta give them a tad of credit there. Anyway, please rethink the WA and include the US in the decision making scenario. What does that signify?
While I'm ranting, may as well get another burr out. This one is in regards to the US{CI}A, and the shadow government running this country {that used to be tied to the Constitution}. We got HUD, ESF, and likely multiple other agencies' slush funds run by 'intelligence' folks with no accountability to anyone other than other behind the scenes characters. The CIA's hands are all over the gold issue, look for it reported by more and more credible sources. And look for the regular lines of propaganda to dismiss or ignore this reality. Confucious says, head in sand creates rod and cone malfunction. GB1- former head of CIA, snoops present at FOMC meetings, accounting frauds beyond even government incompetence. Shadow government, run by who? When this message is picked up by Echelon will it be sent through regular govt channels or those behind the scenes?
Very best to you guys, but you should look for some honest work. This is part of the reason we don't see more names on a petition, the safety factor is not overlooked lightly.
OK now, a couple burrs are gone, but pony still a bit frisky. Will search for more another time.
auspec
site steward
(08/28/01; 19:22:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 60410)
No escaping this one... burnt either way.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/010828/n28320037.html
Excerpt from Reuters (URL above) to set the stage:
----WASHINGTON, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Easing monetary policy for the express purpose of deflating the mighty U.S. dollar would backfire on the manufacturers who have been pressing for the Federal Reserve to do just that, according to a recent Fed study.
In a recently released commentary by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, economic adviser Owen Humpage said that although cutting U.S. interest rates could prompt a decline in the dollar's value in the near term, in the long term it could also spark inflation, to the detriment of manufacturers.------
You wanna know something? Of all the Fed district offices, I have a soft spot in my heart for the Reserve Bank of Cleveland. They do some thinking there that is top drawer material... all in my PERSONAL opinion, of course. (Bolstering my opinion of that *particular* Reserve Bank was the fact that they contacted me last week with regard to a specific subject matter, however, my own discretion suggests that I say no more about it publically, for I have never been one to yell "fire" in a crowded theatre. I WILL, however, continue to urge you to buy gold -- and perhaps a bit more urgently at that.) But I've strayed a bit from official business...
Getting back to the point of this post, this article highlights a few of Mr. Humpage's comments from the study. In response to manufacturer's calls for an end to the Treasury's "strong dollar policy" (which Reuters rightly points out is "a largely rhetorical backing of a strong U.S. currency"), Mr. Humpage says:
------The immediate nominal dollar depreciation and the eventual price increase would result in only a temporary improvement in the competitive positions of U.S. manufacturers.-------The dollar's real exchange value will initially depreciate as the nominal exchange rate responds to the monetary easing, but the ensuing inflation will eventually reverse this depreciation and return the real exchange rate to its initial level.-------The cost of the temporary gain in our competitive position would be a permanent hike in the inflation rate.-----
Wandering off for a bit of policy rambling...
At the end of the day, the most we can reasonably expect of our monetary officials is to conduct policy in such a way that shall foster a monetary/banking system conducive to general price stability, the economic foundation upon which individuals and businesses may plan for the future and grow. Such policy-based "manipulation" by central banks against fluctuations of AGGREGATE price levels is acceptible when the issue at hand is a product of their own emission (e.g., dollars, yen, euros, pesos). It is distinctly NOT acceptible to ignore general prices to singularly target the "price" of one independent market item (such as gold) unless all market players have been clearly informed that this single item plays this unique role under the "Rules of the Game".... as was the case with gold under the various gold standards.
Given the constraints mentioned in the preceding paragraph, as we are no longer on a gold standard, the central banks should do nothing to impare fair and physically valid price-discovery for gold within the marketplace. Further, because gold is a physical creation of nature and NOT a product of bank emission, neither a central bank nor any Association of bullion bankers should endeavor under policy of any kind to "manipulate" this specific product (gold) so as to maintain its appearance as steady against the aggregate of consumer price levels found in the market. Indeed, it should be allowed to seek its rightful, individual value among them as dictated by the market through time.
Those crafting the euro-system surely perceive this in a similar fashion; good news for gold owners around the world in time ahead. Unfortunately, the legacy dollar system was not built compatible for this new monetary regime allowing gold to have market freedom. Despite best intentions, the transition is going to be a bumpy ride for all, particularly for dollar holders not bolstered with an adequate foundation of gold.
Choose gold in the form of sovereigns and have the best of all worlds.
R.
CoBra(too)
(08/28/01; 19:11:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 60409)
Re- The New Orleans Gold Conference -
"The" Gold Conference per se, used to be Jim Blanchard's
expose' and that's why I'm going to attend - no matter what became of his firm - as even GE will have to admit, if they payed up some FRN's to take over the product, just to obstruct and write off the fray, as they very well may - it'll only obscure the real reason - like treason and will come to the light of the day - in season.
As I can't figure the WGC/Blanchard riddle I sure as hell know where to accumulate my private pot o' gold!
Do you? - cheers - cb2
Black Blade
(08/28/01; 19:08:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 60408)
(No Subject)
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010828/bs/economy_dc_1.html
Consumer Confidence Fell Once Again
Snippit:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence fell unexpectedly to its lowest level in four months in August as a weakening job market weighed on consumers and threatened to undermine retail spending, one of the few pockets of strength in a sluggish economy, a report said on Tuesday. ``The deteriorating U.S. job market dampened consumer spirits this month,'' said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board's Consumer Research Center. ``This suggests rising unemployment ahead. The nation's employment and unemployment numbers now bear watching, since continued weakness in the job market could translate into slower consumer spending.'' Meanwhile, the pace of corporate layoffs has been relentless, with announcements of thousands of job cuts across corporate America almost on a weekly basis.
Black Blade: The "undesirables" or non-essential "Bones" are continually added to the "Bone Pile." I will post more on this later - am meeting with a newly hired "Bag O' Bones" in the energy patch tonight. I have a lot of data to suggest that we are about to enter into a period of Recession that will surpass the pain of the 1970's and 1980's, and could even rival the Great Depression in severity. Definitely look to PM insurance and get out of debt if at all possible. The economy is about to look "Grim."
BTW, I heard that the Otis Elevator people are casting off some "Bones." Maybe "elevator guy" has news?
slingshot
(08/28/01; 18:53:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 60407)
Auspec Msg#60404
Your right Auspec. The goverment needs us.Or is it our gold?
50,000 hits only means they are looking. Possible Goldbugs.
The count could be measured by the amount of customers BUYING GOLD. Some prefer to buy from local dealers in metals to reduce paper trail. Just like some other items. To be sure gold at this time is not a major topic of conversation in the Baby Boomer crowd. The outlook of the global economy is weak with optimism to the long side. This may fare well for the Goldbug now as he accumulates at low prices. When things start to really go bad in the financial area you can bet that most Goldbugs will GO DEEP and RUN SILENT.
I feel a turn of the worm.
Slingshot
R Powell
(08/28/01; 18:47:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 60406)
Cavan Man/ nickel62
You mentioned that, "Blanchard + Co. is owned by General Electric."
And GE according to James Paplava is as much a financial company (with 50% revenues from the likes of G.E.Capital Finance) as a manufacturer.
What would an upshot in the POG do for/to General Electric's financial division?
Nickel62
USAGold forum is getting about 9,125,000 page hits per year according to my math and M.K.'s approx. 25,000 page hits/day estimate. Yet GATA's e-mail list is only about 1500. We need to multiply, no?
Rich
BR549
(08/28/01; 18:39:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 60405)
CM & auspec have got it right 2cb.
Cavan Man (msg#: 60398) & auspec (msg#: 60403)—
The main negative of the HC GOLD series was GE Jack's PR Machine, whose sponsor was another so called goldbug source, (a.k.a., who is really "Big Bidness", sorry for stealing your line uponroof) and was appropriately in lock step with the anti-gold propaganda of CNBC. Wouldn't it be nice if General Electric could just buy up every bidness out there before GE Jack retires?
Again to be fair, anyone that thinks that I am anti-big bidness or anti-GE or its pawns, is 100% correct.
auspec
(08/28/01; 18:33:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 60404)
nickel62
I do not know the accuracy of the figure but did hear this site has received up to 50,000 hits per day. House, is that accurate?
There has to be a fear/confidentiality factor with the petition, in spite of 'anonymous' signings, hard to blame it on apathy as gold holders are anything but apathetic. If this site receives 50,000 hits there are many yet to leave 'the closet'. Come on out, your government needs you!
auspec
auspec
(08/28/01; 18:27:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 60403)
Piling On
Speaking of Blanchard, they periodically place articles at GE and demonstrate their 'deep in the box', & 'behind the curve' thinking. I have found it hard to believe that they have done ANY research whatsoever in regards to the gold market, and I can promise you they never took the time to read and integrate anyone else's work at GE. They are assigned a zero credibility level, feel bad for anyone they manage to fool. Get with the program, Blanchard, your namesake would be ashamed of you!
Sound advice- buy your gold only from gold advocates/activists!
nickel62
(08/28/01; 18:21:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 60402)
I am curious just how large an assemblage of fellow gold bugs are we anyway?
When I first realized that there were only about fifteen hundred signatories of the "Petition for honesty in the US gold reserve accounting" I began to wonder how many people are there that read our various ideas. Are the number of lurkers on this site and others like this one numbering in the hundreds or in the thousands. It is an interesting point because clearly the spin doctors have a fairly large army at their disposal. I wonder if anyone of you has any idea of the pervasiveness of our ideas about gold and the monetary situation?
Cavan Man
(08/28/01; 18:12:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 60401)
PPS: Beowulf
Blanchard/WGC
The WGC is pro gold just as Mr. Friedman is pro sound money. Regarding B & Co., that's really a boiler room operation. Let's say with honesty what it is. IMHO, it is likely that they see an impending rise in POG and are short of inventory. So, why not trade the dollars in their accounts for metal now; perhaps switching some clients into higher margin numismatics in the interim, then, sell the metal back at higher prices and premiums. There are a lot of people and companies out there who would do just that. I've met many of them.
Think, think, think....Winnie the Pooh.
Cavan Man
(08/28/01; 17:47:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 60400)
PS: Beowulf
Blanchard & Co. is owned by General Electric.
Netking
(08/28/01; 17:43:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 60399)
Gateway - latest tech to cut, 6,000+ jobs to go
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1514000/1514222.stm
"The troubled computer maker Gateway is to shed 6,600 staff and close key operations outside of the US. In a radical restructuring, Gateway is to close its arms in Malaysia, Singapore, Japan, Australia and New Zealand in order to focus on its core business in the US.
. . . and the firm will decide within the next 30 days whether to ditch its European operations as well . . ."
Cavan Man
(08/28/01; 17:37:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 60398)
Beowulf
Since CB (too) said "ass" (he's right you know), I'll say it about the Blanchard/WGC "drivel": pure, unadulterated BS (not bachelor of science).
Econoclast
(08/28/01; 17:21:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 60397)
Mr. Kosares...
Did you receive the faxed copy of the letter from Blanchard I sent you last Friday?
Come on Sellers! Drive it down to a penny! Then I'll be able to afford the almost unlimited tonnage you profess to sell!
CM: Hubris=Arrogance?
CoBra(too)
(08/28/01; 17:14:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 60396)
GS's Dudley blames FED to postbone pricking -
"The Bubble"! What an un-subtle maneuver to find cover from the coming class actions - after all, history has GS starting the first mutual fund in the US in 1929 at $ 95 and as people tried to cash out it was down to a $ 1.50 - a thrifty experience - which may well be looked upon as a bonanza in today's shifty 401 K's extravaganza.
And as I see, Europe's papers are full and dull with assurances that the pension fund insurances may just have to rebalance their assecuranz? i.e. - no way, for us to get back our pay!
Marvelous, I've worked my ass (sorry) to find out I'm the only side to keep my promise (bad rhyme), though worse reality - as the flagrant robbery of the beaurocrats leave me at the mercy of the same - what a shame!
Sorry for rantin' again - cb2
and BTW - TWIMC - Phil & Lillian - thank you for your concern.
Beowulf
(08/28/01; 16:10:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 60395)
Interesting day
Looking at the Kitco chart for today it looks like a patient has on into cardiac arrest.
Now onto something completely different!
I just received an e-mail from Blanchard & Co. I don't want to promote Blanchard, but they sent me an e-mail that made me mad. Here is a small snippit:
"The dollar is down 8.3% against the euro in the last month and a half. That should be very bullish for gold bullion, which is historically expected to go up when the dollar goes down. This time around, gold has gone nowhere. In fact, gold is down over $15 from its high in May, and is assentially unchanged from its levels in June.
MESSAGE TO OUR CLIENTS
Sell your gold bullion. Sell it in an orderly fashion, but get rid of it all. Given current economic conditions, we may very well have a period of relative strength for gold. Don't let that deter you from getting rid of all of the gold that you have. If you find that you miss it in a few years, you'll be able to buy it all back at a much lower price. If you wait too long to sell, you will be caught in a rush for the exits."
All I can say is I have yet to find this kind of drivel coming from USAGold. They believe in their product, call them today and find out.
The e-mail continues and goes into what I thought was important. Apparently they sent some questions to The World Gold Council for them to comment on. The following shows how inept the World Gold Council is in doing its job of promoting gold.
"Our conclusions, particularly those dealing with the potential downside risk involved in gold, have come as something of a surprise to all of us. Every bit as disconcerting as our own conclusions is the fact that the World Gold Council, with a $25.2 million budget and a mandate to do the research necessary to be able to promote and expand the market for gold, has been unable to provide answers to our questions or to rebut our conclusions.
Our requests for information from the Council began in March 2001. When we did not receive responses through the usual channels, we put our requests in writing on July 3rd and then again on July 25. The first meaningful response that we received from the Council was dated August 24. The
following are our questions, and the Council's answers:
1.Question: "Since March, I have been asking representatives of the World Gold Council the same question: Can the council provide me with a reason why Blanchard's clients and Blanchard should want to buy gold, or to keep the gold that we presently have?"
WGC's Answer: NONE
2.Question: "I told (a senior member of the World Gold Council) that we would no longer market gold to our clients, or accept co-op marketing funds from the World Gold Council, if we do not want to own gold ourselves. Can you give me a good reason why we should?"
WGC's Answer: NONE
3.Question: "Why didn't the price of gold explode when the dollar collapsed between 1988 and 1995? Simply because the Fed reacted to any 10% increase in the price of gold by reducing monetary reserves... and increasing interest rates... What's to prevent the Fed from doing exactly the
same thing the next time the dollar begins to lose strength?"
WGC's Answer: NONE
4.Question: "The Council's Annual Report 2000 said that the Council has reconsidered its strategy and is now placing its focus on creating demand through the promotion of gold and jewelry. Can the council provide me with a plausible argument that increasing jewelry demand can materially increase the price of gold? The Council's change in strategy means that the major producers have resigned themselves to a flat or declining gold price. A declining price might work well for the biggest of the gold mining companies, whose profitability is enhanced by a falling gold price, which also helps them to buy up their competitors. It does nothing for Blanchard's clients."
WGC's Answer: NONE
The following are the conclusions that we reached and which we asked the Council to rebut:
1.Conclusion: "The Federal Reserve Board has an explicit policy of capping any increase in the price of gold by reducing monetary reserves and increasing interest rates."
WGC's Rebuttal: NONE
2.Conclusion: "The European central banks have a policy of capping any increase in the price of gold by adding additional liquidity to the gold market, either through sales or leases."
WGC's Rebuttal: NONE
3.Conclusion: "...The U.S. Federal Reserve Board and the European central banks... have a bigger economic interest in a strong dollar than in a higher gold price."
WGC's Rebuttal: NONE
4.Conclusion: "In going through your Annual Report 2000, I realize that the largest part of the Council's financial support comes from producers whose short sales of gold significantly exceed their annual production - producers that have a vested interest in the price of gold going down."
WGC's Rebuttal: NONE
5.Conclusion: "Barrick and AngloGold, the two biggest gold producers in the world, are also the two biggest short-sellers, each having short sales that are a multiple of their annual production. For them, the only downside to a falling price is the damage that it does to the value of their reserves. Barrick's recent purchase of Homestake shows that they have that problem well in hand. They can continue to make an operating profit through their short sales while they buy up the reserves of their competitors, who have been ruined by the collapse in price."
WGC's Rebuttal: NONE
6.Conclusion: "The liquidity of the gold market is deteriorating and the new generation of central bankers, including those in the U.S. Federal Reserve, are questioning the wisdom of central banks owning any gold. The major precious metals analysts are now starting to talk about gold's illiquidity... If, at some point, the central banks conclude that the liquidity of gold is no longer a given, then we'll see a market rout of epic proportions."
WGC's Rebuttal: "Has there been a loss of liquidity in the market over the last 12 to 18 months? There is no clear cut answer to this question. It is probably true that it has become more difficult to buy or sell a substantial quantity of gold at one time without impacting the price significantly (the technical definition of liquidity)... There can be no denying that a decline in trading volumes in gold has occurred."
The World Gold Council made no attempt to rebut the statement that central bankers are questioning the wisdom of owning any gold and that the lack of liquidity will eventually produce a market rout of epic proportions.
7.Conclusion: "Last year, for the first time in over 20 years, investors sold more gold than they bought... Since I believe we agree investment demand remains the most important determinant of gold prices, if the industry doesn't even do enough marketing to insure retention of gold by existing owners, then the market could be in for a free-fall. There's a lot of gold out there if nobody wants it."
WGC's Rebuttal: NONE
All I can say is if Blanchard doesn't want any of it's gold then I'll take it, and if the WGC can't even answer or rebut any of the Blanchard questions then what good are they?
I had thought of purchasing from Blanchard and sending some of my coins in to them to get graded but I've changed my mind.
USAGOLD do you offer grading of old coins? If so I may have a few I'd like to have graded.
Sorry for the Blanchard posting, please don't pull my password. Back to lurking.
-Beowulf
BR549
(08/28/01; 16:07:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 60394)
"The last Pillar of Goldilocks eroding, sent SM's and the $ into a tailspin and tomorrow will see all eyes on the, presumably, revised GDP."
CoBra(too) (msg#: 60392)
As usual, you got it right again.
Has the U.S. ever put out a reliable GDP statistic? One could ask if the U.S. has ever published any reliable statistic. During the wild party on the 90's, the stock market guru's would take a look at CPI, GDP, Consumer confidence index (whatever that is), unemployment, and many others and find a reason to go long in the markets. Most of the quarterly and/or monthly reports showed very positive results which were used by the equity markets to bid stocks higher and higher. Then revised statistics would follow several months later that showed less than the initially reported results, and the media would not report the "revised" statistics because this was "old news". The stock market as a consequence has been bid up to unrealistic values. Even AG got that right.
The components of GDP consist of both price and volume. The relative comparisons of GDP on a world wide basis is supposed to reflect the well being of each countries citizens on a per capita basis reflected in its relative size. Income, production, and expenditures should be used as an aggregate in determining a country's productivity.
The unusual circumstance here is that all of the rest of the GDP leaders GDP's are all down simultaneously for the first time in 25 years.
The question is should the U.S. always put out the GDP statistics on a scheduled interval or wait until they can get it right—i.e., no more "revised" statistics. I always vote in terms of quality rather than inaccuracies.
Of course tomorrow we will get both the new GDP and the "revised" GDP-for what they are worth.
R Powell
(08/28/01; 15:59:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 60393)
Cavan Man
http://www.financialsense.com/series2/riders/complete.htm
Here it is. Sorry I did not include it earlier.
This prints out at 34 pages but it's worth it's weight in gold. It's certainly worth the paper and ink necessary for printing. Paper and ink as opposed to gold?
Where have I heard of such talk before?
Also I just sent a check to GATA to further their efforts and also to recieve a copy of a book (by Craig Smith) speaking of the present economic situation and gold's place in it.
GATA is also mentioned in the work.
Rich
CoBra(too)
(08/28/01; 15:33:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 60392)
The last Pillar of Goldilocks -
- eroding, sent SM's and the $ into a tailspin and tomorrow will see all eyes on the, presumably, revised GDP.
Does not bode well for the economy. What economy, some may ask, since the US of A has become essentially a (heavily financial-ly) service industry - just see GE.
Well, gee, whatever is left of the great US industrial base seems to become a basket case. Maybe, that's why the former CEO of a resource company now heads the US Treasury? Just in case it needs some hard h(ead)ts, instead of hard assets, to uphold the mimicry of the hard $-currency?
Safe haven? - Or for heavens sake, save in gold - cb2
PS: @ Karen Sue - great essay and it may become true - thank you for sharing your (chilling) thoughts, as forewarned is forarmed.
Cavan Man
(08/28/01; 14:56:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 60391)
Gateway
may ceasse production in Europe and laying off 25% worldwide and 15% in US.
slingshot
(08/28/01; 14:55:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 60390)
KarenSue Msg# 60368
Wonderful post! The implications of what you have stated are staggering. To support your post a quote.
"Promise them everything,but,give them nothing!"
Adolf Hitler
And the Sheeple will follow.
You have given us one more reason to own physical gold.
Slingshot
Cavan Man
(08/28/01; 14:52:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 60389)
Hi Rich
What is the link please? thanks
R Powell
(08/28/01; 14:38:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 60388)
Brick and Mortar or Finance Co?
I've just finished James Puplava's part 10 of "The Perfect Financial Storm". Nothing short of excellent (IMHO).
From page 19 in printed form, he discusses the "incredible American Credit Machine". It seems that some so-called old economy companies are no longer mainly manufacturing companies but rather finance companies.
"From industrial giants like GE, Ford, and General Motors to department stores like Sears Roebuck, many generate a sizable portion of their profits from their financial subsidiaries."
"In the case of GE, close to 50% of its gross revenues are coming from financial services versus the industrial side of the business".
"GMAC accounted for 70% of GM's profit in the second quarter."
I've been thinking that the Dow component companies would signal the coming manufacturing slowdown but perhaps not so if these former manufacturing companies are now finance companies.
Mr. Paplava thinks (as I do) that real estate prices and finance companies (through increasing defaults) will soon show signs of rough weather ahead.
This was the 10th and final part of his work. I hope he considers presenting the entire presentation in book form. What about it Mr. Paplava? I'll buy a copy for myself and some for Christmas presents! Thanks for an excellent job.
Rich
Old Yeller
(08/28/01; 13:27:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 60387)
Stability,who's got it ?
Anyone else notice the crazy gyrations in the currency markets today did not include gold?Very interesting,especially after all the gloom and doom put forward by the heavyweights in the COMEX trading arena.
Of course,tomorrow is another day;the revised GDP numbers loom large.
Cavan Man
(08/28/01; 13:21:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 60386)
Econoclast
Perhaps, hubris?
Econoclast
(08/28/01; 13:14:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 60385)
Trail Guide...
While reading your latest work/walk, a political, as opposed to economic, curiosity came to mind. Whether we like him and his or not, our previous president especially, and his top economic people (including AG) all have reputations as being men with stellar intellects possessing the abilities to use these intellects as masters of deceit and gamesmanship.
Were they REALLY blindsided that hard by the Europeans?
Also, as you brought up the subject of wine, I am reminded of a question I asked once before concerning our shared passions.
Right now, a fine first growth (2000 vintage future) goes for a little more than an ounce of gold. Assuming a vintage of similar quality, when we have hiked to the end of your path, do you think that ratio will still be the same?
The first time I asked that question, I did not know what your answer might be. At this time, I think I know the answer, but if you really think it through, the question is not as simple as it first seems to be.
BR549
(08/28/01; 11:37:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 60384)
Electronic Money: Treasury Research and Development
http://www.fms.treas.gov/emoney/index.html
KarenSue (msg#: 60368)-
Excellent post.
The trend in welfare payments is in the same direction as the rest of the government. The Treasury and the banksters are trying to convert everyone to emoney. Think of the advantages to them—pull into a gas station and have the scanner identify your retina and then the amount of purchase is deducted from your checking/savings/debit/credit account. If you owe the IRS some money, then you will not be allowed to purchase and the scanner will send the police after you.
Science fiction?—it's closer than you think. When college students begin as freshmen they are issued debit cards by the University system. Parents are required to make deposits to this account at tuition payment time. With these smart cards they can buy food, make phone calls, do laundry, buy pizza, use the coke machines……
Electronic Money: Treasury Research and Development
"FMS Electronic Money Program
The purpose of the FMS Electronic Money Program (Emoney) is to test these new payment and collection technologies to determine their potential impact on government fiscal operations over the medium and long term. Emoney is Research and Development (R&D). It is also a catalyst to burgeoning ideas, and experience that agencies can use in designing its own e-strategies. Various pilots are already underway to test these technologies as Federal payment and collection mechanisms.
FMS Emoney Program Pilots
Stored Value Cards
ELECTRONIC CHECKS
DIGITAL CASH
INTERNET CREDIT CARD COLLECTIONS (ICCC)
Paper Check Conversion"
Now the Fed doesn't have to print money. They just electronically manufacture it.
Belgian
(08/28/01; 11:17:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 60383)
Japan
Record jobless rate of 5% and Finance min. Shiokawa, Hoping...Begging...Asking...FOR A WEAKER Yen (sept. group of 7 meeting) ! Of course, nothing new under the nippon sun.
The point is that *economic fundamentals* are more and more of second importance for even the mightiest on the globe.
What other evidence do we need for stating the bankruptcy of all fiat ? When are ordinarry citizens going to realize that *holding* any paper is absurd under the present circumstances. We don't need complicated, monetary, ivory tower, theories, to understand that each currency isn't a constant valuator of our invested labor. Why aren't these astute Japanese savers (and others), considering this Yen devaluation desire of their finance minister as a < theft > ?
It becomes easier to understand that the one who choses to embrase Gold with his currency, has a strong desire to have a strong currency. Aligning or mirroring the strenght/weakness of your currency to the most universal standard (Gold) is indeed a courageous option that must be prepared and outlined meticously. Japan has no choice and therefore its archrival, China is super motivated to follow the european position (TG) on Gold. Against this background, the posting of Hipplebeck (#60366)is again evidence of what we are studying here as candidate goldadvocates.
Currencies are at war, since the principle of floating was introduced and accepted. The next economic expansion can't materialize under the present global currency system.
Genuine and sustained growth (expansive growth) can not be obtained in an ever increasing *Gambling* (falsified) climate.! Is the old continent "europ", really going to bring the necessary change with TG's theory ? I do believe it will. The Gold-Management is evidence of fear from the dollar for a confrontation that has been subtly organised for quite some time. We only await some more dollar-nervousness. A direct confrontation with a POG explosion is premature, at present. But when it happens, we all now here what it is all about.
Sierra Madre
(08/28/01; 10:35:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 60382)
Karen Sue: Thanks for the very interesting post 60368!
Yours is one of the most interesting recent posts.
Opens new vistas of financial and monetary horror. You are really ahead of the curve.
Imagine an emergency - governments love emergencies, they are an excuse for barging onward with what they love to do: spend money (other people's)
Imagine the Government issuing 50,000,000 debit cards to the unemployed, homeless and indigent in the coming depression.
Imagine a monthly balance of $500 credited to each. One can visualize it as "mainlining" the money to where it is needed most.
It does not take much imagination to see that it will be politically irresistible to implement some such program - the population of the US is predominantly hedonistic, accustomed to continuous satisfaction of its desires. Any obstacle to this will be cause for revolutionary rioting.
In this depression, the multitudes of hobos will not be courteous: "Sir, can you spare a dime?" They will be demanding brutes, men and women.
Well, I won't go on. Let's stock up on gold coins and hope we survive to be able to use them.
Sierra
Gold Trail Update
(08/28/01; 10:34:03MDT - Msg ID:60381)
The Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated
The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
site steward
(08/28/01; 10:22:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 60380)
CHARTS --- stock markets getting beat up again today; tip of the iceberg?
http://www.usagold.com/goldenchalkboard/gc_stockbubble.html
Some of you might enjoy a brief look at these charts I put together. Shows where we've come from, and where we might be going.
When you've had enough of this nonsense, contact Centennial and buy some gold to call your own. Better yet, do it today.
R.
Tam
(08/28/01; 10:13:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 60379)
Gold and Silver Seasonal Charts from Spectrum Commodities
http://www.321gold.com/home.html
The very last week of August and the first week of September tend to be about the best time of the year from a seasonal point of view to be buying physical silver and gold. Look for the charts at the bottom of the gold section.
Old Yeller
(08/28/01; 09:05:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 60378)
Counter-point presentation
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3X7TSKWQC&live=true
I get the impression that this erudite individual doesn't spend too much time at the USAGOLD forum.
"Robert Mundell,the lone voice in support of gold"
Belgian
(08/28/01; 08:44:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 60377)
@ Hipplebeck post # 60366
Yes indeed sir, your question on this seemingly idiotic remark, is very significant !
Needless to remind, that the Japanese mega-savers, are an enormous threat for the Gold-Management-Plan. Japan is a US-vazal (slave). Japan has to comply with his master's voice (the dollar) or loose both legs and arms (export to the US and US$ savings). Japan can't afford the luxury to be dis-obediant. May I add 2 other small facts that I experienced myself : 1/ A fresh new WGC employee was (repeat: WAS) very enthousiastic about a worked out Gold-marketing suggestion for Japanese savings. His enthousiasm was suddenly broken off ? 2/ The Jipangu (Gold) investment Fund, only wants to invest in Goldminers and doesn't want to talk about physical Gold investment. Strange isn't it ?
And of course the june 1997 lapsus of the gentlemen PM Hashimoto (US$ bonds for Gold) remains the most clear evidence of the dollar-enslavement.
7 TRILLION US$ DEBT is in foreign hands ! 140.000 tonnes of total above ground gold is priced at 1 Trillion $ today...or in other words : *GOLD* is more dangerous than TNT+Syntex together ! Japanese savings are 12 Trillion US$.
Note that I'm accepting these figures from others and have no authority to judge on their reliability. Global debt is estimated at 90 Trillion $ against a world GDP (?) of 40 Trillion $.
Conclusion : in whatever context that 140.000 tonnes of Gold are placed...this shiny stash remains a very dangerous thing in my strong, sorry very strong, conviction.
The more time passes to avoid currency-related *Panic*...the more explosive the re-discovery of Physical Gold will be for joe and sue...not for the Giants.
Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD
(08/28/01; 08:39:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 60376)
Hard assets... Easy access!
http://www.usagold.com/onlinestore/special.html
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