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Welcome to the USAGOLD Gold Discussion Archives. The archives of this gold discussion forum are a treasure trove of information to educate investors about protecting their wealth through portfolio diversification with private gold ownership. The discussion forum also covers the wider issues of the past, present, and future role of gold in international monetary policy and the dynamics of the modern gold markets...   (Discussion Forum Hall of Fame) (The Gold Trail) ("Thoughts!" by ANOTHER)   The opinions posted by all guests are expressly their own and do not necessarily represent the views of the management or staff of USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals. The hosting of the public discussion shall therefore not be construed as an endorsement by USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals of any of the opinions posted here.

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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 11/28/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Waverider (11/28/01; 23:51:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 66037)
Ford set to axe thousands of US jobs
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3EUT2KLUC&live=true&useoverridetemplate=ZZZ99ZVV70C&tagid=FTDO9DHMZJC
Snippit:

"Ford Motor Company is finalising a sweeping overhaul of its North American operations, likely to involve the closure or mothballing of plants and several thousand job losses.

The main planks of the restructuring - to be presented to Ford's board and senior management in mid-December - have been agreed following the removal last month of Jac Nasser as chief executive.

Mr Nasser was ousted by Bill Ford, group chairman and great grandson of Henry Ford, in a boardroom coup amid mounting losses at the world's second largest carmaker.

Ford lost $1.53bn on its North American automotive operations in the first nine months of this year, compared with a $4.28bn profit in the same period of 2000.

It is expected to include an end to overtime working at several plants and mothballing others, along with a 20 per cent reduction in the white-collar workforce - about 8,000 job cuts - and the possible withdrawal from non-core internet and service activities. Possible disposals include KwikFit, the UK repair chain acquired by Ford in 1999."

Black Blade: 8,000 Ford bones off to the bone pile.


ski (11/28/01; 23:26:41MT - usagold.com msg#: 66036)
New Opportunities Conference ... cont.


RICK RULE
Two important books to read "The intelligent investor, and Security analysis" both by Ben Graham. Equities are going to go much lower. We are in a declining economy but not necessarily the "Greater Depression" that Doug Casey predicts. Dollar is overpriced. Doesn't see a great move in gold ... up to perhaps $350. Buy the good junior exploration companies via private placements when you get the warrants. This doubles your exposure on the upside. Likes Jr's that joint venture with senior companies and can be regarded as "prospect generators". Buy jr.s that are picking up mostly proven properties for pennies in the dollar. Stocks are too expensive. Gas and oil are headed lower ... wait 6 or 8 months. Everything is in place for a gold bull but doesn't know when it will start. PM stocks and physical are so cheap you should just buy and forget timing.

MARK SKOUSEN
Thinks the bottom is in in the SM. Positives are low interest rates, good war progress, tax cuts, and low gold price. Negatives: rise in long term interest rates. Thinks "stay at home" will be good for tech and QQQ. Auto's look good. Construction permits are a good indicator. While gold flounders, buy the Freeport Gold and Silver Convertibles. If the war drags out, is too costly, or un-predictable events take place, he will change his views. The financial system is more fragile than people think because: there is a free flow of capital between countries,.. and fractional reserve banking. How would a financial panic start? 1. collapse of the dollar overseas 2. foreigners taking money out of our SM. Tax cuts are not nearly large enough. 9-11 was a failure of intelligence. We are just in a normal recession. The NASDAQ will lead us out of recession. Gold will not go up until: 1. there is inflation in base metals and ag product commodities. 2. falling dollar. 3. higher long term interest rates.

BOB BISHOP
Is quite negative on the SM and economy. PM stockholders have a great advantage over other SM holders as they have experienced and understand bear markets. It's going to be devestating going forward. Gold looks awfully attractive. The fundamentals have shifted to being very positive. A huge disconnect will manifest between physical and the paper gold market. The economy is still in decline .... we are in a bear market rally. Sees massive denile in the SM. No economic recovery in the near future. Base metals look poor. Gold looks good. Would not want to be short now. Silver is an industrial metal and will go when gold goes. Likes PAAS. SSRI is a long term call. Most overpriced senior gold is Placer Dome. All PM miners have flaws due to the extended bear market. However, everything will look good if gold is up $50. Hedging was a good idea in the past but in this environment it is the biggest mistake a company can make. Hedgers will follow long term capital and enron. 5 year bear market plus tax loss season equals ... buy some PM stocks now. In the SM, most people have no clue to bear markets and wealth destruction. Hedging is dead. The gold carry trade does not work at these interest rates. Central banks have indicated that they are going to decrease leasing. Rising gold will result in derrivative disasters. Gold is going to be appreciated as money and not jewelry. The new Newmont will be THE stock to own in the future.

LAWRENCE ROULSTON
Gold and silver will make big up-moves, but when?

JAMES DAVIDSON
We are going back to an earlier form of disorder ... this will help the gold markets

DR. BERND FISHER
The whole world is now in recession ... the last time this happened was 1973 .... it started with Japan. Two strikes against the US: trade deecit and lack of systematic vocational traning of citizens. Most European countries are operating in a defecit and they have no surpluses. Is big on the Euro. England will go euro. 12 more countries are expected to join. The euro will go up.

ski (11/28/01; 22:28:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 66034)
New Opportunities Conference .... cont.



JAMES DINES
Gold shares, short funds and uranium have done well this past year. I think the SM will fizzle out from here. Recently turned bearish on the dollar. Gold will have to get above $300 for him to get bullish. Gold is bullish in almost all other currencies. Silver looks awful cheap at these prices. Expects a possible dip in gold but thinks this will be your last opportunity to buy. A trend in motion will continue until it actually ends. Gold moves opposite the SM. Sees 5 figure numbers at the top of the next gold bull market ($10,000 is the smallest possible 5 figure number.) There will be a terrible price to pay for endless currency printing. Bearish on real estate. Senses big changes are in the wind. Expects the economy to get horrible at the end of the year .. more horrible than anyone expects. International bear market in stocks. Silver stocks are about asdepressed as they can possibly be. The great religious war that I have predicted has just begun. The holy war is not over .. it is early in it. The war in Afgan is linked to the drug trade. The anti-freedom trend of govt grabbing power since 9-11 has just started and will get much, much worse. This is a major trend change.

FRANK HOLMES
Big equity funds are now interested in holding some gold stocks especially if they show growth. If a PM company can do the following, money will flow into them: increase production, increase cash flow, and improve reserves. I believe gold will make a serious upmove in the next 12 months.

PAUL VAN EEDEN
If you want to outperform in the sector you have chosen, good management is the most important. Gold is in a bull market. If the dollar declines to its trading range of the early 90's, the dollar-gold price should be in excess of $500. The dollar-gold price is down because of the strength of the dollar.

HARRY BROWNE
Q? Could you have a return to the gold standard with little or no gold in the treasury? Ans. You can do it with any amount of gold. When inflation begins to rise worldwide, people will exchange their US dollars, which is the most popular world currency, for the second most popuar form of currency ... gold. Without sustained inflation gold will not make a sustained rise. 5 or 6% will do it. Does not think that China is as prosperous as we are think. 100 million Americans did not vote in the last election because they felt that their vote would not change the present system. Govt will use 9-11 to take more of your liberty. Individual liberty and peace were the two major forces that raised this country. These forces are in retreat. We were told that the Rico laws were passed to fight organized crime, yet none have been convicted, .... only abortion protestors and stockbrokers have been convicted with these laws.





THX-1138 (11/28/01; 21:30:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 66033)
Discussion about Enron on FreeRepublic.com
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/fr/579910/posts

Very interesting first person points of view being discussed on the FreeRepublic.com forum about what happened today.


tg (11/28/01; 21:28:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 66032)
PANDAGOLD
http://www.rense.com/general17/aforcegreaterthan.htm
Panda, if you have time to read the link above, I would'nt mind your take on it.

Black Blade (11/28/01; 21:24:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 66031)
Forbes Body Count
http://www.forbes.com/2001/01/30/layoffs.html

The "Bone Pile" continues to grow. Tomorrow the weekly unemployment report comes out. We should see a lot of nonessential "Bones" cast aside going forward and especially so after the holidays.

Repeat after me - "Do you want fries with that?"

ski (11/28/01; 21:19:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 66030)
Part 1 ..New Opportunities Conferencd
.



Last weekend was the annual New Opportunities Conference that has been held the first Sunday and Monday after Thanksgiving for the past 14 years or so. This is primarily a PM conference. I attended and took a lot of notes as the various speakers and newsletter writers talked. I will be posting these notes over the next few days as time permits.

Just as an aside, in recent years I believe that there have been many more of these conferences spread over the calandar and over the United States. However, there was only one meeting this year and it was poorly attended. This seems to demonstrate that the average investing public could care less about PM's!! Also the average age of those in attendance was around 65!!

Since I have a lot of notes, I am not going to be real careful about spelling this time around. Also, my comments will always be in (parenthesis).

.........

MARY ANNE ADEN
Bonds are the best leading indicator of the economy. Their trends don't usually decieve you. Lumber and 30 year yields tend to move together. The present trend in gold is up. Gold can rise in inflation and deflation. Seeing a lot pf parellel's to the great depression. Expect gold shares to resume the uptrend within the next couple of months. Collapsing interest rates vs other currencies signals a fall in the dollar.


IAN MCAVITY
In South Africa, only likes Harmony. People haven't yet grasped the NASDAQ bubble bust. No more high tech prices for a decade or more. You cannot re-inflate a bubble that has a huge hole in it. The bear is not over. The key to gold's rise will be the drop in the dollar ... possibly war related. Dollar is over-owned worldwide. Bullion and shares will take turns leading. negative "real" interest rates are positive for gold. You should be buying PM stocks now and don't wait for highter prices to make you feel good. Is sympathetic with GATA and thinks a good part of their charges are true.

Waverider (11/28/01; 21:12:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 66029)
darkhorse:66023...Thoughts from a gold nugget
Appreciate your thoughts darkhorse. As someone who is not in the investment field professionally, I have much to learn, and I come here to learn as well as to stay informed. I've struggle with the parameters of the forum - it seems that what some find okay, others may not. I happen to like the news postings - saves me rummaging through alot of websites when important items are highlighted here, but maybe others don't. I like hearing the odd personal tidbits about people - maybe others don't. I love the humour - most of it..(smiling uponroof). Sometimes postings are quick and dirty, other times - detailed analytic discussions that obviously have taken a great deal of time. Both are great. I think to participate here requires tolerance to a broad latitude in thinking styles, and maybe not just thinking but also different styles of expression. There's a wealth of individuals here with a goldmine of knowledge and views. Personally I don't really care for the "because I said so" approach - I like to hear reasons for people's views. Having said that though, when a person has expertise in something, often they do know things intuitively and can't explain reason and justification - I think Panda referred to it as "animal instinct". I can offer one suggestion that would help me - alot of abbreviations are used here that sometime escape me (anyone else?). Writing out once would help, then abbreviate. Those are the humble but golden thoughts from a relatively new nugget!

Cheers, Waverider

PS - What's the prize?

slingshot (11/28/01; 21:08:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 66028)
(No Subject)
Parrot Withdrawal
Hey! Anyone seen my box of crackers?
Good night all.
Slingshot

uponroof (11/28/01; 20:42:20MT - usagold.com msg#: 66027)
Enron traded on the new Intercontinetal Exchange. Check this site out. Super easy access for trading "around the clock, around the world, every single business day"
http://www.intcx.com/partD-E.html
This exchange makes the COMEX look like a lemonade stand.
***********************

Meanwhile, more coming out on who knows who.....in the biblical sense.

Denbury Resources Comments On Enron Hedge Position

DALLAS -(Dow Jones)- Denbury Resources Inc. (DNR) is due to receive about $19 million in 2002 and $7 million in 2003 from hedge contracts with Enron Corp. (ENE), based on natural gas futures prices at the close of business Wednesday.

In a press release Wednesday, Denbury said no payments currently due from Enron are in arrears.

Denbury said the natural gas price floors it has with Enron include a price floor for 2002 with a strike price of $4.25 per million Btu covering 41 million cubic feet a day, a price floor for 2003 with a strike price of $3.75 per MMBtu covering 33 MMcf/d, plus other minor natural gas price floors in 2002.

The hedges are part of the $18 million spent by Denbury on price floors as part of its Matrix Oil & Gas Inc. acquisition completed in July. To date, Denbury has received about $9 million in cash payments from the price floors purchased in the second quarter.

Denbury said it can't predict the amounts, if any, it will receive under the Enron hedge contracts. The company said substantially all of its price floors for the remainder of 2001, plus other minor natural gas price floors for 2002 and an oil price floors covering 10,000 Bbls/d with a strike price of $21 per Bbl for 2002, are with other counterparties.

Earlier Wednesday, Dynegy Inc. (DYN) terminated its merger agreement with Enron, backing away from the deal despite frantic last-minute attempts by both sides to save it.

The announcement came after Standard & Poor's cut Enron's debt rating to B-minus, rendering it to junk status.

The downgrade triggered financial covenants and raised the possibility that Enron will be forced to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. That could be a fatal blow for the company, which needs huge sums of cheap money to keep its trading operations alive.

Denbury Web site: http://www.denbury.com
**********************************************
Rich, this is an incredible story, and the punchline is still lurking.

slingshot (11/28/01; 20:25:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 66026)
Hello, Darkhorse.
The price of Gold will stay between $270.00 and $290.00 but the sale of 1oz Gold coins will accellerate due to lower premium than 1/2,1/4, and 1/10 coins.
Silver spot will stay below $4.25 while coin dealers sell fancy holiday 1 oz coins at high markup prices.
The stockmarket will porpoise but will end lower by the end of the year. Should there be some incident of major concern the market will drop considerabaly.
Consumer confidence will steady but some retail stores will not make next year as consumers look for necessities instead of luxury items.
Unemployment will begin to climb higher as earnings reports are released. Six percent First week in the new year.
The war continues in a most sterile state and as the militarys eye turn to new targets the chance for heavy engagement increases. The question of reprisal will have the most effect on PM's, stockmarket and economy as the war continues.

Sounds like a weather report.
Just my opinion,
Slingshot

Galearis (11/28/01; 19:51:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 66025)
@ darkhorse
A thundering silence....
Everyone thinks you are talking about them <grin>
Could you be more specific?

G.

R Powell (11/28/01; 19:41:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 66024)
More from Atocha
At 19:54 at the neighboring castle about the divergence of paper and physical price which Atocha, in no uncertain terms, believes will happen. He thinks open illegal government intervention in the paper markets will occur when "someone" decrees it has to happen.
What to do? He advocates physical in hand. I agree with this along with some fancy trading footwork. When the mainstream press and Joe-sixpack start talking of gold and silver, that will be my cue. That's when I head for the door. This may be just before the government calls in all physical precious metals- to back up the new greenback or will it be another color? I hope CPM has a self destruct button on the "orders-filled" file.
******
The more I read of Enron, the more amazed I am!
******
Also read next door of a theory that the threat of anti-terrorism seizure of Middle East accounts may be causing some fund withdrawal(big bucks)from the bond market.
I guess if there are any suspect people in any foreign country that might be under any suspicion, then even legitimate funds invested from others in said country would be subject to possible seizure. Strange thing that suspicion.
*****
Chris, thanks for the report. And yes, you are allowed to have fun. Learn, have fun and profit if possible.
Thanks to all who susport GATA.
*****
Galearis, good investigative work. I still can not find any information that would cause me to doubt that POS must rise!
Rich


darkhorse (11/28/01; 19:12:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 66023)
For the wisest around the table, a call to (for)...wisdom!
I'd like to propose something to Mr. K. and this site. We've got excellent grade ore to mine every day (those that post some well thought out ideas on an almost daily basis), and we've got some occasional nuggets that show up (excellent lurker posts). What with all that's happened (and/or seemingly starting to happen) in the past few days, how about some sort of contest to see who can make the best/most accurate prognostications for events to take place between now and, let's keep it halfway easy, the end of the year...not quite five weeks out. This timeframe leaves out the euro start-up. I'm open to listen to anybody's opinion, but it seems to me there's a bunch of parrots saying the same things a lot of other people (often other parrots) are saying, and I can't help but get a bit (well, ok, sometimes more than just a bit) annoyed with some that keep posting with an attitude that whatever they're thinking WILL happen, just because they think it will (I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one that's noticed this). For those of us that like quality substance over quantities of, uh, "stuff" (I guess I should've been born in Missouri...I'm a Show Me kind of guy).

goldquest (11/28/01; 18:17:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 66022)
Bailout!
Just like the bailout for the airlines, Enron will be "saved" by the US Govt. in the name of national security and for the good of the country!

Galearis (11/28/01; 17:00:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 66021)
@ Rich re physical silver price over paper spot
I forot to comment on your comment. You are right....
There is no difference in paper spot and physical spot, except the premiums charged for small bar silver over paper spot makes the remaining metal too rich for even the larger dealers.

I enquired at Kitco re the lack of small bar silver being offered and one spokesperson there stated that the premiums charged were very high and that the premiums would have to come down in order for the items to be offered ounce more. Another there simply said that they could not find the stock.

Two ways of saying (almost) the same thing...

G.

Galearis (11/28/01; 16:49:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 66020)
@ Rich re silver
Just for fun...
I emailed the COMEX people today and asked them the bar size of their eligible silver stocks...? And to annoy them further also asked what the good bar percentage is for this stock?

I am sure they will be as forthcoming as GFMS.

G.



Galearis (11/28/01; 16:28:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 66019)
A peak (peek) at the past to forcast the future...from G.E. repost
The good ol' days?
(smile)
To wit:

@Harry 10:49- I WAS THERE... (political price manipulation)
(Atocha) Nov 28, 16:14

in person, January 20, l980, before the open, at ML as a futures trader long on gold. (I had placed phone orders before the open to sell my gold longs and then I went to the ML office before the open.) At the ML office, I was told in person by the ML office manager (Jose) and by my ML commodities guy (Ron): "You can sell; but, you can't buy" gold and silver.

What happens to any (free?) market when a large segment of the public are told: "You can sell; but, you can't buy"? As you know, Monday, January 20, l980, (hope I remember the date correctly) the gold and silver bull markets topped and then declined big time. Think of all the insiders that sold the nearby golds short at limit up at the open. (The most followed newsletter writer at the time had issued an emergency weekend notice to buy gold at any price Monday morning.)

I recall that I had some gold bull spreads. I was short September, l980s and paired with longs much further out time wise. The September, l980 gold contract opened limit up and closed limit down. Because of a series of limit up moves and high interest rates, my back month longs closed limit up. Those gold bull spreads were the best trade that I ever made in my entire life.

Harry, I was personally there, January 20, l980, when the gold and silver prices were manipulated and the PM bull market was broken by: "You can sell; but, you can't buy." I was a "smoking gun" personal eye witness to the PM price manipulation by "You can sell; but, you can't buy."

That was clear blatant illegal manipulation of the (free market?) prices of gold and silver that broke the PM bull market. That absolutely was not "unusual market behavior." For myself, and others, as ML futures customers, to be personally told: "You can sell; but, you can't buy" gold and silver is the smoking gun of gold/silver political price manipulation. I also heard ML staff tell other futures traders, during the day, that they could sell but not buy gold and silver.

I have posted this before on several boards. Yet, readers keep buying paper gold and silver. I don't understand it!

Harry; "yeah thats right guys - I was personally there at ML futures on January 20, l980, when I and other futures traders were personally told by ML staff: "You can sell; but, you can't buy" gold and silver. And, that same day, the PM bull market ended.

At the end of the day, with nearby golds limit down, ML staff came up to me and said things like: 'Aren't you glad that we wouldn't let you buy? We saved you.'

Harry, thanks for bringing the topic up again. Maybe this time I put enough mustard and detail in my post that goldbugs will grasp what happened and stay out of paper gold and silver. From my perspective of my personal smoking gun experience, gold and silver political price manipulation started January 20, l980; or, earlier. Harry, best wishes and thanks for reviving an 'old' topic.

Fungible physical gold and silver in the hand.



uponroof (11/28/01; 16:11:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 66018)
"It's almost like one of the big securities firms failing"
thanks Waverider
Exactly. A natural resource company morphing and over expanding into agressive financial areas....where it had no business being. I guess they thought they were....'too big to fail'.

And why not? Enron processes 35% of the NG for America. They helped elect their native son dubya. Why JPMC even had a major stake in their bidness. And on and on and on.

A couple things come to mind.

A lot more of these costumed resource/financial companies walking around. Some of them mine gold.

Whatever is done, or is allowed to happen to Enron, may shed light on what the fate of these others may be. In other words, aside from obviously taking down those connected in monetary terms, This has certainly spooked those with similar business portfolios and agendas.

How will they react to this 'death' knowing they could be next? FED/US must calm down the situation and assure all horrified spectators to remain seated. The best way to do this is to limit losses. Don't ask me how.

Could just start an American business panic which just might just damage the 'born in the USA' intrinsic value of the almighty dollar. Credibility loss cannot be papered over endlessly.

Pandagold (11/28/01; 15:38:42MT - usagold.com msg#: 66017)
Who was the honest John on the end?


(Taken from: Fall Street.com)

WALL Street Analysts On Enron:
Strong Buy: 6 Buy: 2 Hold 6 Sell: 0 Strong Sell: 1


Chris Powell (11/28/01; 15:33:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 66016)
New Orleans conference convenes in 90 minutes
Jeez, guys, we just checked in down here
and you want reports already? Give me a
day or two. I promise to dispatch
something. But of course I'm really here
just to make sure Bill Murphy takes his
medicine and to see how people react to
his speech Thursday noon, and to pass
out the name tags at GATA's reception
Thursday night. This is supposed to be a
party town and I'm working! Oh, what we'll
do for the gold cause....

Waverider (11/28/01; 15:08:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 66015)
Enron $0.61 "It's almost like one of the big securities firms failing"
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Stock%20Market%20Update&s1=ad_top1_snapshot&tp=ad_topright_snapshot&refer=snapshot&T=markets_frontsummary_content99.ht&s2=ad_top2_snapshot&bt=ad_position1_snapshot&bt2=ad_bottom2_snapshot&middle=ad_frame2_snapshot&s=APAVajBUZVS5TLiBT
Snippit:

U.S. stocks fell, led by banks and energy traders, after Enron Corp.'s sale to Dynegy Inc. collapsed. Citigroup Inc. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Enron's biggest lenders, dragged the Dow Jones Industrial Average lower.

Enron is ``deeply entwined with all the financial institutions and they have just blown up,'' said Alan Kral, who helps manage $700 million at Trevor Stewart Burton & Jacobson Inc.

Enron

Enron plunged 85 percent, dropping $3.50 to 61 cents. With 342 million shares trading, according to preliminary figures from the New York Stock Exchange, it was the most actively traded stock ever. It has lost 99 percent of its value this year.

The decision by Dynegy to abandon its purchase of Enron threatens to force Enron, the biggest energy trader earlier this year, to seek bankruptcy protection. Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Service cut Enron's credit rating to below investment grade.

Dynegy fell $4.92 to $35.97.

J.P. Morgan Chase dropped $2.30, or 5.6 percent, to $37.50, its biggest decline in more than two months. Citigroup slid $2.75, or 5.4 percent, to $47.80.

In October, Citigroup and J.P. Morgan agreed to participate in a $1 billion loan to help Enron avoid a cash crunch. The banks' securities units were advisers to Enron on the proposed acquisition by Dynegy.

General Electric, which has indirect exposure to Enron through minority stakes in about half a dozen power projects, fell $1.72 to $39.35.

Energy companies may face losses from trades with Enron that can't be completed. El Paso Corp. slid $3.59 to $44.91, Mirant Corp. lost $1.50 to $23.40 and Williams Cos. fell $1.80 to $27.05.

Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co., which has energy trading operations, fell $3.55 to $54.20.

Because Enron has so many trading and finance relationships, ``it's almost like one of the big securities firms failing,'' said Michael Santelli, who helps manage $1.5 billion in stocks at National City Investment Management Co. in Cleveland, Ohio.




uponroof (11/28/01; 14:38:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 66014)
Enron....JPM/Chase
Just got this message from a friend at Raging Bull TABLE:

**********************
"...JPM & C, the word is leaking out that they hold about 800 Million shares of ENE, each. With 300/400 Million of those unsecured. Ugly for sure. apparently this will cost in the neighborhood of .05 to .10 for their earnings.
At least that is a number floating from CNBC clo..."
***********************

Question is what else is connected? Has the call gone through to AG and friends yet? Keeping an eye on likely suspects who may tip the hands of others.

Waverider-right you are! Thanks. I don't think we'd have been all that 'early' if it wasn't for our cartel friends, who btw are allowing the entire world to squeeze onto this very late train. PS Glad you stuck around.

sector-nice to see you. Heard about your little slip from Don. Hope you're back to normal very soon. GATA needs you at full strength.


R Powell (11/28/01; 14:27:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 66013)
Galearis / GATA news??
Thanks for some excellent work! I wouldn't think there can be too much price divergence between the Comex price and the real world price. If there is then long Comex contracts will be held for delivery so that this cheaply aquired physical can be sold at higher physical market prices. Perhaps that's why the Comex price was up 7.5 cents today.
Thanks for confirming the many rumors of small investor sized physical becoming hard to get. Perhaps the pot is beginning to boil?
********
What news of the economic convention in New Orleans??
If memory serves correctly, I believe George W's mom was one of the scheduled speakers. Perhaps she'll have time to listen to some GATA information. If so, do you suppose any of it will surprise her? Or will she think, "I knew that, just didn't know exactly how we did it!"
What news cousin Chris?? Anyone??
Good day for Silver!
Rich

site steward (11/28/01; 12:45:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 66010)
U.S. rates to zero?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011127/wbt025140_1.html
Did you see my last post yesterday (about the strong dollar)? Read this article then have a look if you missed it.

From the article at the given URL:

ST. LOUIS, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole repeated on Tuesday that the Fed can cut interest rates to zero if needed.

"The only stopping place that I see is zero," Poole told reporters after addressing the St. Louis chapter of the Financial Executives International.

Waverider (11/28/01; 12:14:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 66009)
uponroof
Always better an hour too early than five minutes too late.
Cheers,
Waverider

RS (11/28/01; 11:55:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 66008)
@ George ( usagold.com msg#: 65995)
George quote:
"Gold is "natural" money and bankers know it. That is why the IMF is so heavily involved in gold."
------------------------------------------------

Sir, I quite agree with you, but I believe the reason the IMF is involved with gold is that.... IT'S GOLD!


---Best wishes to all during these dark and evil "interesting" times.

site steward (11/28/01; 11:53:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 66007)
"Just raise your hand to show your interest..."
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html
Right here. How simple is that???

R.

sector (11/28/01; 11:51:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 66006)
Enron's Visible Metals Businesses...In Trouble
http://www.enrononline.com/docs/marketing/Markets/Metals/US/Library/M13556/
Base metals are shown...no precious metals. This is hard to imagine, given the agressive metals activity they display at the above e-business website.

Are they short gold? Do they owe thousands of tonnes of gold to counterparties?
Time may answer these questions.

It IS clear however that global deflation has smashed the base metals and all base industries as well. It will only get worse as the true nature of the base industry deflation combined with a wildfire inflation in service industries unfolds. ORO has some nice anecdotes on this trend.

site steward (11/28/01; 11:51:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 66005)
The latest! I've just now read through it and it's a good one!
http://www.usagold.com/newsviews.html
32 pages of golden splendor. Are you missing out? You don't have to. It's made available to you at your request. Just raise your hand to show your interest...

R.

Netking (11/28/01; 11:32:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 66004)
Great goldmine rush to merge
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/dynamic/news/business_story.html?in_review_id=478847&in_review_text_id=434113
From 'This is London':

". . . . To suggest the world's leading gold miners are drawing up plans to create their own version of oil cartel Opec would be a little far-fetched. Such an admission would probably also prove too tempting to the trust busters in Europe and the US, attracting their unwelcome involvement in future merger and acquisition activity.

But those in the industry say there is no question that the big draw of consolidation is the ability to slash supply and co-ordinate a global marketing campaign for gold that would have more measurable benefits for those companies that fund it. And already the ball is rolling. . . . "

uponroof (11/28/01; 11:14:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 66003)
Forbes Magazine - Dec.10 issue, pg.190: 'Golden Oldie' by Jim Sinclaire
Can anyone post the entire article? Not sure if it's on the net yet.

From the article:

"...In 1977 James Sinclaire boldly predicted that gold would rise from $150 per ounce to $900 per ounce. Gold never reached that mark but it came close on Jan 1980 peaking at 887.50. The next day, says Sinclaire, he unloaded his entire gold position personally netting $15,000,000.00. Pointing at the Federal reserves efforts to fight inflation Sinclaire then predicted at an annual gold conference that the metal would languish for the next 15 years which it did...."

Sinclaire has been 'right on' before.

Has some very interesting things to say about gold today.

He is calling 305 the breakpoint after that 345+ seems unavoidable due to short positions. Mainstream article that reads like the 'lunatic fringe' GATA releases a few years back. Our day is coming my friends. We we're just a little early.


George (11/28/01; 11:09:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 66002)
Enron Metals
I just heard it on the news - Enron Metals has a position in the LBMA and they are all as nervous as nine-tailed cats in a room full of rocking chairs!

Max Rabbitz (11/28/01; 10:48:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 66001)
Lame-O Award goes to USB Piper Jaffray Analyst Andrew Collins
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Stock%20Market%20Update&s1=ad_top1_snapshot&tp=ad_topright_snapshot&refer=snapshot&T=markets_frontsummary_content99.ht&s2=ad_top2_snapshot&bt=ad_position1_snapshot&bt2=ad_bottom2_snapshot&middle=ad_frame2_snapshot&s=APAUbJRUZVS5TLiBT
Within 24 hours of yesterdays upgrade for JPM comes the "biggest decline in more than two months" with a 5.8% drop today. I guess we are just supposed to just look at the long run.

``Nobody knows just how much exposure they really have to Enron,'' said David Gilmore, manager of the $1.1 billion Federated Capital Appreciation Fund, which owns shares of J.P. Morgan Chase and Citigroup. The banks also may have
commodity-trading positions with Enron that will become riskier, he said.

George (11/28/01; 10:31:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 66000)
Looks real bad
http://www.bloomberg.com/bbn/index.html
Enron, JP and the boys all making the news today as the dollar tanks.

Galearis (11/28/01; 10:26:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 65999)
Hmmmmm
JPM and Enron
Pull up the day charts and compare. Interesting times may be starting!

G

Netking (11/28/01; 10:24:11MT - usagold.com msg#: 65998)
AngloGold bid gets FIRB nod
http://afr.com/companies/2001/11/29/FFXMH8BZJUC.html
AFR - Nov 29th

AngloGold's $3 billion plus paper bid now before Normandy Mining shareholders cleared another hurdle yesterday by gaining Foreign Investment Review Board clearance.

As well as clearing that hurdle, AngloGold stepped up its assault on the board-endorsed rival bid from Denver-based Newmont Mining by making a submission to the Takeover Panel questioning the bid's legal standing.

Newmont's president and chief executive Mr Wayne Murdy told The Australian Financial Review yesterday he believed AngloGold's tactics had clouded the main issue. And that issue was the competing offers were now neck and neck in value terms. . . . . " (Refer link for full article & graph)

Netking (11/28/01; 10:18:08MT - usagold.com msg#: 65997)
Galearis etc - "declining" silver
Galearis - Good morning & well done Sir, as we all suspected the writer implies that we seem to have "a market within a market" yes.

Let me just say by the time the public wake up to the real silver situation . . . . it will be too late!

BR549 (11/28/01; 10:14:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 65996)
The toothless SEC attempts to control the "Master Manipulators"
http://money.cnn.com/2001/11/28/ipo/ipo_probe/
"The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating whether four major securities firms improperly handled initial public offerings of stock, according to a published report Wednesday."

"The SEC is trying to determine whether Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS: Research, Estimates), the Robertson Stephens unit of FleetBoston Financial Corp. (FBF: Research, Estimates), the securities unit of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM: Research, Estimates), and Morgan Stanley (MWD: Research, Estimates) improperly doled out public stock offerings to customers who promised to buy more shares once trading began, the Wall Street Journal reported."


BR-The process of IPO "laddering" has been denied by these manipulator's PR departments for years.

Does anyone really think that the lowly corrupt SEC is a match for the above MM's (Master Manipulators)? By the time that this post is completed, I would imagine that job offers will be extended to individual SEC investigators and accepted so they can "join" these manipulators as their newest well paid employees. (Similar to the Afghani's putting down their arms leaving the Taliban and walking over to the other side and joining the Northern Alliance).

Close your windows. There is a strong stench today arising from the mountain of "paper".

BR549

Galearis (11/28/01; 09:58:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 65994)
@ all silverbugs, a conversation with "Atocha"
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/atocha112601.html
A day or ago I mentioned that I had been in email conversation with the author of the article on Gold-Eagle entitled, The Euro, Gold and the Dollar. It is quite interesting and is a recommended read. And in it he made a statement that startled me:

"One, ten, and hundred ounce silver bars have been bought and melted into good delivery one thousand ounce silver bars. Now, many coin dealers and bullion dealers who have traditionally sold one, ten, and hundred ounce silver bars to the public, often have none and are apparently unable to order them at a realistic price."

If true, the shortage of investment silver was being being exacerbated on a massive scale. I immediately contacted "Atocha" and asked for an explanation of the above. His response was interesting and he kindly gave me permission to pass it along on the USAGOLD forum. For texture and additional context, I have included my response to this as well:

snip******************************

First, thank you for your response and the kind words. Secondly, thank you for passing on to me the info from Engelhardt and JM. I strongly agree with your point that both as LBMA members is important. You see the removal of investor size bars as "an attack on the monetary/hedge concept for silver." You have an excellent point that I had not previously appreciated. It also reduces the sale of silver. Thank you for your thoughts.

"And my question is (finally); how are you aware that these refineries are bringing the small bars and remolding them to the large? And how would they accomplish this.?"

First some general info. For twelve or thirteen years I have had a small niche wholesale gold/silver jewelry business. And many years prior to that I almost became a coin/bullion dealer. Some of my lifelong friends are in different niches of physical gold/silver business, including coin shop owners who have been the traditional retailers of investor silver bars. One of my lifelong friends is a 'dealers dealer' in the coin/bullion market. The larger volume coin shops in the U.S. have a nation-wide coin dealer teletype system in which they post their buy and sell needs. It was about two plus years ago and at that time the public was not buying silver. (Prior to Y2K rush). Then, my 'dealers dealer' friend told me: 'Now is the time to buy silver, nobody wants any and there is none around.'

The public would come into his business and sell him their silver bars. On the nationwide coin dealer teletype were two U.S. banks (one in Delaware) with postings that they would buy l, l0, and l00 oz silver bars. Also, owners of smaller coin shops that did not have the coin dealer teletype would sell silver bars that they bought from the public to my friend (as a 'dealer's dealer') and he would ship all the bars to the bank in Delaware for payment (no public investor demand at that time). That is how it was accomplished that investor size silver bars sold by customers all over the United States got channeled back to two U.S. banks. I suspect that with the current demand from the public for silver bars, that this pipeline is now long dead.

For all retail sales, one ounce bars sell at a price premium to ten ounce bars. And ten ounce bars sell at a price premium to one hundred ounce bars. So, if the silver bars going from all over the U.S. to the bank in Delaware were to be resold in tact as bars, those price premiums for the smaller bars would be reflected in the payment prices the Delaware bank posted on the coin dealer teletype network.

As I recall, the one ounce bars may have been purchased at a ten cent an ounce premium to the one hundred ounce bars, and the ten ounce bars were purchased at no price premium to the one hundred ounce bars. And, essentially the same purchase price for l, 10, and 100 oz bars meant that Delaware was not purchasing them to resell them as 1, 10, and 100 oz bars. As a longtime wholesale silver jeweler I could not see the Delaware bars (with shipping costs) to Delaware going into silver jewelry. My dealer's dealer friend and I discussed everything and we finally concluded that the resold investor bars had to be being melted into good delivery one thousand ounce bars. Nothing else made business sense. ["Atocha", additional note: the dealer that I talked with on 11/26/01, and quoted, was different than the 'dealer's dealer' that I talked with two plus years earlier. Both coin dealers have been very high volume silver/ gold bullion coin/bar dealers since the 1970s. Both these dealers, like myself, concluded that the bank delivered small bars were recast into 1,000 oz good delivery bars.]

In the larger context of the LMBA, and the closely watched size of official warehouse stocks, and the futures being used to politically suppress the price of silver, everything also fits. Another major coin dealer that I have known for thirty years cannot get me l00 oz bars. When pushed to order them, he will not even quote a price, and he refuses to order them. Other coin dealers who I have known for twenty plus years refuse to order l00 oz bars and refuse to quote price. Believe me, coin dealers do not turn down profitable sales. They simply can't do them.

As far as the silver from China to U.S., my pure speculation is that China got something in return that China badly wanted. Also, I have no real knowledge of reserves from India.

I just phoned a long time coin shop/ bullion dealer friend. He said that the premium he would have to pay on l00 oz bars "was out of sight and mind". He also said that it "takes an act of God" to get them (100 oz bars). He has a coin dealer teletype and he said that the bank ads stopped a long time ago. Then he volunteered that they "melted a zillion of them" (l00 oz bars). And it was his impression that they were melted into l000 oz bars.

I hope that I answered your question to your satisfaction. If not, let me know. And, again, thanks for your feedback, your info and your thoughts.

Warm regards, Atocha.
From: Galearis
To: "Atocha"
Sent: Tuesday, November 27, 2001 12:31 PM
Subject: Re: Euro...editorial


Hello "Atocha"

That was certainly impressive information on the process of buy-backs of small bar silver! This was very perceptive detective work, and I agree with your interpretation of these events. Thank you for this effort!

When you mention one of the banks that was involved being placed in Delaware, one wonders if there is a connection to COMEX here. I know that Delaware is a state with many banks, but it also hosts the Delaware Depository (for silver). Pure speculation, of course, and a temptation to sniff out smells of causality around every corner is the burden of those of us in the precious metals end of things. Sometimes smell works best when vision is unable to penetrate the murk. (smile)
This is the problem, so much "information" we receive comes from the most odoriferous sources, those institutions and government agencies that would see the most sensitive assets, fiscally speaking, put in the most unfavourable light to the investment community. For a list of some of these all one has to do is visit the LBMA and GFMS web sites.

GFMS, for example, is the source of that information you mention about the China disquisition of its silver bullion reserves, when an equally plausible explanation involves importing "raw" silver for refining and re-exported back to the original supplier. The reason, of course, is cheaper (labour) service in China than in the exporting country (Australia, for example). One is even tempted to connect the movement of small bars to be remolded into 1000 oz + - sizes in this, yes? There is a similar shortage of small bar silver in the east - Australia, New Zealand. Again this is the smell of things where vision is impeded and it always serves to remind that ALL of this is simply speculation. But it is pertinent to point out that the China disquisition has NEVER been verified. GFMS refuses to answer my inquiries on this matter, refuses to give me source verifications, and so I am inclined to consider the matter as a "disinformation" ploy. One more among many!

I also may be wrong about this. It always pays to be objective.

At the end of a day it serves best to take pause and reflect on the fundamentals. We ARE running out of silver with perhaps 350 m.o to 500 m.o. of total world supplies remaining. It also pays to remind that most of this remaining stock is probably in investor/speculator/CB hands. COMEX eligible to registered bullion numbers possibly reflect the useable to investment proportions more or less. That is, out of a total of 104 m.o., 69 m.o. is registered and 34 m.o. is eligible. The eligible silver represents approximately one months world production (with a deficit of around 10 m.o.) or 3 months world silver supply deficit. Right now the TOTAL COMEX silver keeps rising slightly, but lately this number has only been augmented by registered silver coming into New York. It is the 34 m.o. number to watch

While the paper trades of silver go back and forth cashing out 98% of the time, only every once in a while does someone take delivery of a million oz. or so. At the same time "they" somehow come up with ever smaller shipments of eligible silver to rationalize the paper trade. ScotiaMoccatta, part of COMEX, would have bullion in its various depositories. (One can buy 100 oz bars in Toronto from them - the same way one can buy it from COMEX in N.Y.) The end result is that eligible silver shrinks in supply - and this infers the world-wide shortage.

It also serves to keep in mind that although the leasing of silver is much reduced and for the most part unprofitable now, they must still have on hand small bar silver to pay the lenders their interest in metal. When the inevitable defaults commence, it will be a different story, however.

But again, this is STILL only speculation. It IS logical and good only by what the numbers infer. The visible numbers, that is....

What IS more real in this is the progression of events for the collapse of silver supplies. Capitulation has already occurred for those who bought during the "Hunt Bros bull". This stock has walked into all those small dealers shops, probably a year ago at last gasp. Silver scrap has dried up - at these paper spot prices people just turn up their noses and walk out with it - because of the 10 fold retail price over metal value that they had paid when they bought it in the mall (etc.). Junk silver has also dried up -even though the spreads are much more favourable for the off-the-street crowd. Capitulation here too. My dealer friend told me that the scrap and junk silver business is only a small fraction of what it was last year. All this says that the silver has dried up for the small time dealer.

For the "big time dealer" too. Kitco now only supplies silver coin and 1000 oz bars! They cannot get smaller sizes and say the premiums are exorbitant for the small bars (if available at all). Another indication is, believe it or not, ebay. Silver in 100 oz "good bar" makes is nearly $5/oz and has been that way for over a year. [Addition: and this source is down to one or two larger bars per week.]This is metal separating from paper spot in action!

For people like me, who are buying at the lows (wisely, I hope) the bullion supply is also drying up - because the off-the-street supply is drying up. As "they" are not making the small bars, this is virtually the reality for some year or more down the road until spot improves. If the move to 1000 oz bars is a POLITICAL not (entirely a) MARKET decision, then the situation is more long term and quite serious for the investment crowd. In a year or two when silver supplies expire, however, the general public will not realize the problem until the media announces that silver has spiked to $20 to $30 per ounce (as in the early '80s). When they rush to the small time dealer to buy, the silver won't be there!

What happens then is in the murk area.

Another way to speculate on when the pm markets will blow up: Go to www.LBMA.org.uk/clearing_charts.htm and bring up the metal transfer graphs. Print out. Get your ruler and pencil out and mark in the high and low channels. Extend the time chart on the bottom to intersect and you will[may] have a rough time line on when the gold and silver markets will collapse.

Hopefully, I have been of some help for you in return.


Best regards,

BR549 (11/28/01; 09:39:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 65993)
The reality is Enron's going bankrupt,'' said Michael Willingham, a risk manager at Itochu International Inc. ``Enron touted themselves as the king of risk management, but it desn't look like they've managed their risk very well.''
http://quote.bloomberg.com/fgcgi.cgi?ptitle=Top%20Financial%20News&s1=blk&tp=ad_topright_topfin&refer=topsum&T=markets_bfgcgi_content99.ht&s2=blk&bt=ad_position1_topfin&middle=ad_frame2_topfin&s=APAUNShSiRHluZWd5
These "off balance sheet liabilities" that all corporations have is coming home to roost. Another rumored example, General Motors Pension Fund has derivatives of 2.5 employees needed to be funded for each employee actually paying in. All GM derivative numbers are "off the books" of course. What is the old saying?--What is good for G.M.'s derivatives is good for the U.S.?

Revise my previous post in re: Enron stock now in the 1's headed towards bankruptcy downward to penny status before it is over. Not bad for a $90+/share a few months ago. Bring your hot dogs to roast on the fire and watch the "paper" burn.

BR549

BR549 (11/28/01; 09:04:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 65992)
S&P downgrades Enron to Junk Bond status
As the U.K. based Dynegy squirms out of the acquisition deal, what is left of the master derivative manipulators at Enron crumbles.

If you could have shorted Enron in the high 4's at the beginning of trading on Monday, you would have made money as their stock price is down over a dollar in the low 3's this morning. It is still not too late--their price is now headed for the 2's.

There are many more derivative based Enron's out there. Live with "paper" and watch it disappear. Now is the time to accumulate as much physicial Gold as you can stand.

BR549

USAGOLD (11/28/01; 08:45:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 65991)
Today's Market Report: Short Covering, Monetary Policy Statements Move Gold Overnight
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html
11/28/01
In Brief: Gold firmed overnight on short covering and policy comments by central bankers suggesting a shift to a period of dollar weakness. The gold uptrend held in New York where more often than not these rallies run into a brick wall. Bridge News reports a rising interest in physical gold from India and Italy. Analysts say technical factors in the gold market are point to a bottom with the groundwork being laid for a rally -- a potentiality we pointed out here on Monday. Bundesbank's Ernst Welteke said in an address at a conference of a Japanese bankers association, "We think the euro is undervalued and the dollar is overvalued." The Fed's Lawrence Meyer -- known as an interets rate hawk -- added to the dollar's downside by saying in a speech to economists that further rate cuts might make sense to drive real rates of return into the negative. The one-two combination from both sides of the Atlantic was enough to send the dollar reeling on international markets overnight.

* * *

Those of you looking for a deeper understanding of the forces at work in the gold market will find our latest Quarterly Review a beacon in a sea of market confusion. In it, master analyst and prominent market maven, James Grant offers his views on the subject in an extensive article not to be missed titled "For Real Money." You can receive Mr. Grant's thinking by hard copy and private download by going to our sign-up page and requesting an Introductory Information Packet. And Mr. Grant is only a small part of our 32-page Review. We also feature some advice from Hong Kong's Dr. Marc Faber "When Things Don't Add Up," and my own "After the Twin Towers: New Realities for Gold Investors." All in all, the net effect is to re-orient your thinking to the present circumstances. Your inquiry is welcome. Pls go to the link above.

* * *

We also invite you to browse our jewelry section. The Termine-Winer Classic Collection of 18-karat designer crafted jewelry was suggested to us by the World Gold Council. It is of very high quality, sure to please and the prices are right. I know most male shoppers like to put things off to the last minute but given the price breaks and lack of sales taxes that come with buying from us on-line, it might pay to get this done as soon as possible. If you wait too long we may not be able to get you the order on time. Just call and talk to Marie or order right at the page on-line. Your order will come by Fed-Ex -- a done deal. Your selection comes in a very nice black velvet box with a very classy card that goes with it. We really went out of our way this year to offer something we think your loved ones will appreciate.

Please go to the Classic Link in the front matter of this Forum.

Those looking for an on-line overview of the forces at work in the gold market will find the review at our Commentary & Review page (Registration required. Go to Link above). It covers the longer term view. I've posted some good article summaries and links below. If you have an interest in pricing out gold coins or having your questions answered, you phone call is welcomed at the toll-free phone numbers at the bottom of this page.

* * *

Morgan Stanley Goes Bullish on Gold . . . . . Over the weekend I read an positive report on gold from Morgan Stanley (written by Michael Durose and Brain Markovich titled "Hedging Uncertainty"). They begin by stating that "we believe many investors are now rethinking gold's role as a portfolio diversifier and store of value."

Spartacus (11/28/01; 08:23:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 65990)
Remarks by Governor Laurence H. Meyer
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2001/20011127/default.htm

Before and After

...To promote macroeconomic stability, monetary policy must respond to changing economic conditions. On that premise, I always start my thinking about monetary policy by identifying what I like to call the outlook context. Is inflation likely to be stable, or will it rise or fall? Is the economy losing momentum rapidly or will it likely grow at or above trend?...







Black Blade (11/28/01; 07:46:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 65989)
Gold looks brighter as dollar slides against euro
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/011128/l28184132_1.html

Snippit:

LONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Gold's fortunes looked to have taken a turn for the better on Wednesday morning in Europe, as prices were buoyed by a drop in the U.S. dollar against all major currencies, traders said.

Black Blade: Start of the Gold Bull? Perhaps, we shall see. Meanwhile, Gold and Silver are still cheap and now many are looking for places to hide, park cash, or for portfolio protection.


Black Blade (11/28/01; 07:41:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 65988)
Dive! Dive! Dive!
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

Come up to periscope depth? World markets get ripped a new in overnight trading action. US markets are falling in line this morning. Gold is up a little though.

Black Blade (11/28/01; 07:27:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 65987)
United States: Is the Recession Over?
http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html

Snippit:

We think recovery will come eventually. But neither the analytics nor the fundamentals yet signal that conditions are ripe for the rebound. Moreover, a close reading of those new data suggests that they don't represent the light at the end of the tunnel that is now priced into markets. Our bottom line is that markets have jumped the gun on recovery.


Black Blade: This is an interesting article. The recovery if and when it happens will be some time off. Either corporate earnings will have to rise dramatically very soon (highly unlikely) or the stock market indices will have to drop like a lead balloon (more likely). Also consumer confidence is falling month over month and layoffs are still rising. This does not bode well for a consumer driven recovery. And that is just some of the problems in the US. This is a Global Recession with a host of economic misery.


Black Blade (11/28/01; 07:15:38MT - usagold.com msg#: 65986)
U.S Economy Unlikely to Stage Full Recovery Until 2003, Economist Predicts
http://www.quicken.com/small_business/news/index-article.dcg?story=/news/stories/dj/20011128/on20011128000126.htm&department=0


Snippit:

HONG KONG -- The U.S economy is unlikely to stage a full recovery until 2003, but there should be a technical rebound in the first half of next year, said a U.S economist.

"Japan's economy is quite close to a real meltdown," said Mr. Krugman, adding that the country's structural reforms aren't happening quickly enough to solve its deflation problems. He said Japan faces a situation unlike any it has seen since 1931, "looking at a zero nominal rate, rising real rates because inflation expectations are rising, [and a] rising real burden of debt because prices are falling." He expects the situation will put pressure on Asian countries to devalue their currencies.

If in 2002 Japan follows a desperate monetary policy or the Bank of Japan buys non-Japanese bonds, that might trigger a drop in the yen to 150 to 170 against the U.S. dollar "sometime not in the distance future."


Black Blade: Every few days it seems as if another economist of agency is pushing back the date of the expected recovery. And Japan? The rumors of a major banking collapse persists. Hmmm…

BTW, Zenidea and others have noticed the rise in Rhodium prices. I haven't followed up on PGM prices since the NYMEX and TOCOM defaults on PGM contracts (especially palladium). Rhodium isn't openly traded as Pt and Pd. I'll send off an email to Sergei and see if he can give any insight on the Russian stockpiles of PGMs again. Cheers!

- Black Blade


Canuck (11/28/01; 04:39:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 65985)
Euro Countdown
34 days

US$/Euro 0.884

POG 274.50

Zenidea (11/28/01; 02:20:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 65984)
A Mantra
But then again "the only thing in life that is permanent
is the law of change; Temporiness. Kitco may well have slipped into another digital coma . :).
Trail Guide. I was somewhat astonished yesterday at one emotive post on the Gold Trail I read yesterday.
Great minds think alike or fools never differ ?. whatever
happened on any side of this golden coin I hope that the difference that transpired is mere evidence that we discuss/fight with the one's we love the most, and or are passionate about this matter... GOLD.
Please dont be disparaged. rest on me :). HUGS impartialy all.

Zenidea (11/28/01; 01:37:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 65983)
Waverider : re Rhodium
I was waiting for this to happen, again hunching a hike was imminent, in that of thinking what the USA might do with its stockpile in relation to what one may call a (strategic metal) because of its suitability to high tech/temp military applications as an alloy in jet aircraft engines inter-alia.
Which may well be the signaling touch stone as to just how far President Bush's resolve regarding terrorism is intended
to be pursued. If this is the case ? I might wager a carton of Beer ( Aussie of course ) that Rhenium, Iridium Osmium and its oxides may well shift upwards also.
Black Blade as we all know is somewhat abit of a gift on whom has what in stockpile abeit above or below ground as a by product which in itself tells a political story.
The other lesser reason (that I doubt) is that some entity wants to build a/some nuclear reactors.
Come on friends shoot me down in flames !. :).
Heres a challenge. Has anyone an update on the present cost of this rust. Gold(111) oxide Au2O3. 1g ?.



Netking (11/28/01; 01:08:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 65982)
"Russia's Oil Strategy"
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/analysis.htm
This from - Geopolitical Global Analysis:

A curious disagreement has arisen between Russia and Saudi Arabia. The Saudis are begging Moscow to lower Russia's oil exports. But Moscow refuses to do this. In fact, Moscow seems determined to offer Western Europe cheaper oil and gas. Two weeks ago crude prices fell 20 percent. As the Saudi princes choked and cringed, Russia opened a Baltic Sea terminal that will flood the West with 240,000 additional barrels of oil a day. Last month Russia opened its largest natural gas field ever - a field that will eventually produce 3.5 trillion cubic feet of gas per year.

As everyone knows, the West is addicted to cheap energy and Russia has decided to feed the addiction. "While nobody was watching," noted the New York Times on Nov. 21, Russia "so dramatically ratcheted up production ... that they now occupy a catbird seat, able to whipsaw oil prices … just by turning down the Russian spigot."

As Russia increases its market share at Saudi expense, the spoiled Arabian princes face political bankruptcy along with intensified extortion from terrorist organizations. According to Seymour Hersh's sensational Oct. 22 New Yorker article, the Saudi's have not only supported terrorists with money, but their weak standing with the local Moslem clergy forces them into what Hersh calls a "double deal," in which the princes support the West and the terrorists simultaneously.

The Middle East is rife with contradictions. The Saudi monarchy can only guarantee the flow of oil, day to day, by paying off terrorists who dream of destroying the oil fields. It is in this light that Russia's push to grab new oil markets begins to come into focus. According to Hersh, a secret CIA study shows that the Saudi oil fields cannot be effectively protected. CIA analysts have concluded that a small quantity of explosives could take the Saudi oil fields off line for two years.

There is little doubt that Russia knows what Seymour Hersh knows. And it appears the Kremlin has been gearing up to exploit the inevitable. If (When?) Saudi oil production was paralyzed by terror attacks, Russia would become the world's largest oil exporter. Russia would then have the West over a barrel -- quite literally. . . . . "

Netking (11/28/01; 00:49:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 65981)
Bad-loan problem still haunts Japanese banks
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/newse/20011128wo13.htm
From the daily Yomiuri - Snippet:

* With little prospect of an economic recovery anytime soon, it is still uncertain whether the banking industry can resolve the problem.

* Major commercial banks hope to write off about 6.4 trillion yen worth of bad loans this fiscal year for their balance sheet to finally clear the issue of nonperforming loans, which has plagued the banking industry for the last decade

* Banks suffered a major blow when the mark-to-the-market accounting system was introduced this fiscal year to appraise their assets. Falling share prices had hit major banks hard financially.

* Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group Inc. President Shigemitsu Miki sounded "less optimistic", saying "The economy is in such a terrible state we cannot hope for a sudden upswing."

* The banking industry is in dire straits and the key to survival depends on whether they can recover their earning power next fiscal year. Major banks that have used up assets earned through appraisal gains of stocks to dispose of nonperforming loans in the past now must figure out a new method to solve the problem

* Major banks reported a consolidated loss of 1.5 trillion yen from stocks they held in the interim April-September account-settlement period, in accordance with the new accounting system, whereby a bank is required to consider stocks whose market values have fallen by more than 30 to 50 percent from their purchase price as losses. Even after taking this required charge-off, the total appraisal losses incurred from cross-held shares among major banks reached 3.27 trillion yen. About 1.9 trillion yen, or 60 percent, of the 3.27 trillion yen must be subtracted from reserves banks have set aside for dividend payments for shareholders. Since the reserves of major banks stood at about 2.27 trillion yen as of Sept. 30, there are hardly any reserves left for dividend payments.
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Comment: There appears to be no easy way out for the Japanese who have a problem that they seem as reluctant to acknowledge as they are able to actually solve. 2002 will be a "rough year" for the Japanese economy and their "trophy" institutions. - Netking



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