 Centennial Precious Metals Gold coins & bullion since 1973 Denver, Colorado 80246-0009 We educate first-time investors! |
for quotes and purchase information.
|
ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 10/28/2001
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
ORO
(10/28/01; 23:55:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 64307)
Black Blade - Energy
I had a terrific finding that I was not aware of as I was putting together charts for my research. The purpose of these was to show how the relative prices of producer and consumer prices behave within the Austrian business cycle theory. The basics are that credit expansion funds business investment disproportionately and thus creates a surplus of capital equipment (and intangible capital) dedicated to producing producer goods - namely more capital projects. Thus relative prices of producer goods to consumer goods should should rise during the credit expansion fed boom and the reverse should be true in the bust as consumers resume dictating their time preference (proportion of savings to consumption) which was circumvented by bank credit expansion diverting resources from consumers to business investment (in the US the capital investment portion of GDP was 20%, up from a peak of 14% during the energy investment boom. If R&D and additional intangible investment is included, then about 30% of US economic activity was capital related). During the bust, consumers tend to save more, thus converging from that side towards the existing economic structure, while business does the same by investing less.
The item I was not aware of before was the "coal crisis" of 1969-1974. In this crisis the relative price of coal (relative to other goods) went up 60% in 1969-70 and then again by 80% in 1974. Partially, this was a result of the electricity market, where electric utils saw increasing demand and rushed to build what remain to this day their best coal plants before the EPA was to form. As coal prices rose, the utils built coal-oil fired plants in 70-74. The moment these came online, the "oil crisis" came and burnt them.
The shock was confined to the utilities for the most part, but was concurrent with shocks to the chemical industry, which saw the coming "coal shortage" and had switched to oil, but then was "double whammied" by both coal and oil rising at the same time in 1974. Chemicals prices and electricity prices (both up about 40-50% relative to consumer goods from 1969 to 1982-4 in the util biz, but the spike was very short in the chemicals industry) never fell back to their 69 and 73 lows though they are rather close to them at the moment.
Nat gas was the next transition out of coal and was where utils moved out of oil from which they moved from coal. Being regulated monopolies they were only tolerant of bureaucratic mediocrity and thus failed in all their strategic decisions over the whole of two decades. Frightening.
The next discovery was the significance of the gas price spike (less so the oil spike) in 1999-2000.
The 1973-81 period saw relative crude goods prices rising to double their prior levels in some 8 years. 99-00 saw a greater magnitude change in all of ONE YEAR.
Profit margins (product volume base) in the manufacturing sector (outside of crude materials) went from 0.4 (near their level in the 60s) to below -0.4, which compares with -0.1 at the bottom of the cycle in 1982. While the bottom in 1982 took 9 years to reach, the much more severe bottom in 2000 of -0.4 took 14 months. Happily, the margins returned quickly to 0.3 in Aug and should hit higher soon.
At the upper reaches of industry, upstream from the consumer, the margin story was even worse.
Remarkably, the lower reaches of industry close to the consumer have seen margins expand to finally recover to 1960s levels in 99, and continue to rise. In the stagflationary period, these industries were in dire straights, with margins dragging near 0 and even below from 1973 till 1982, and climbing very slowly from there.
Furthermore, perhaps most remarkable is the similarity of the margin charts under Greenspan to those of pre-Fed gold standard days, where recessions were sharp and short. These charts indicate that:
1. The 1990 recession did not have an actual overall economic bubble behind it but only a real estate bubble (construction goods went up 50% relative to consumer goods and peaked in 1993, from which they have fallen 30%).
2. There was a short manufacturing recession in 1996, awareness of which must have prompted Greenspan's "Irrational Exuberance" speech.
3. There was a bubble that showed itself in 1998-9 in manufacturing margins rising to nearly double their former (non-recessionary) rate in 1985-1997 as the Fed let loose the spigots and Greenspan drank down too much internet juice, resulting in his speeches about high-tech productivity improvements. The counter to the 98-99 boom is the 1999-2000 manufacturing recession. Margins (volume basis again) are back up and above their normal range. The bottom has been reached.
4. The current shock was (is?) GREATER in magnitude than ALL OF THE 70s put together.
The next thing to note is that the source of the boom of 1998-99 was the dropping out of the bottom from the Asian economies more so than Greenie's inflation of the Ms. This event lowered crude goods prices which raised margins, and was a bust event in the Asian tiger economies following their own monetary inflations.
The final item of note is that retail margins (in terms of relative goods prices) should grow smoothly when economic performance is stable and would be lower or flat when malinvestment is happening. Using this as a guide, the US has seen malinvestment on a grand scale during the 1970-1975 period, and just plain malinvestment from then on through 1981. From that point on, the malinvestment periods were rather shorter, less extreme by far, and were allowed to quickly turn into recessions. Thus the 1987-1990 period was such, as was the 94-95 period, and now 1998-2000.
Looking at production per employee, the figure for the US was up 45% over the 20 year range since the late 70s, and 23% for the last decade. For France, it was up 24% over the long term, and 14% over the last decade. Japan fared worse with 47% over the whole period, but with only 4% n the decade of the 90s.
BR549
(10/28/01; 23:43:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 64306)
Derivatives and the Gold spot market
The quantity of gold derivatives has been increasing geometrically over the last few years and now "dwarfs the physical supply of Gold".
The official position for having derivatives in gold is supposedly for price stability over the long run which benefits everyone. At least that is what JPM/C and other hedgers would have you believe. My research indicates that the main beneficiary of derivatives are the largest holders of physical Gold, namely the clients of the Central Banks/Bullion Banks.
Since the Fed is not allowed to sell its Gold that was given to it by the U.S. Treasury, the physical inventory itself is essentially a dead asset, it does not make any money just sitting there in inventory. This Gold is moved from being a dead asset to one with a rate of return via leasing (although not much of a real rate of return now).
The beginning rationale behind the leasing of Gold had to do with two real commodity users---miners who produce the new physical Gold and industrial/jewelry and other fabricators who are users of Gold. Derivatives hedge the POG in the spot market via introducing additional liquidity into a stagnant users of Gold in production vs. producers/miners market. (Investors in physical Gold withdraw supply and are a nuisance to this whole process).
Hedging of Gold narrows the trading range and provides incentive to hold Gold (inventory) in order to fabricate it on the users side and via forward selling of Gold in the ground, provides cash flow for starving miners. Without forward selling, more miners go broke, the supply of new Gold decreases, and the POG goes up. Convenient for everyone, huh?
At least those benefits of hedging are what the paper manipulators would have you believe. But what is the real reason that the largest Gold holders in the world would become involved in the gold commodities market when they do not buy soybeans, hog bellies, wheat, or any other commodities?
If these largest Gold holders, the CB's/BB's withdraw Gold from the lease market, there would no longer be a low volatility and the POG would float like other commodities. The lease rates for gold have been steadily declining over the last few years, which would indicate an inelastic demand for Gold. Since physical production is less than Gold demand, then lease rates should rise, not fall, if supply and demand determines their market level. And since this has not been the case, then there must be another reason that lease rates have fallen---namely to increase Gold supply and keep the POG down. If lease rates increase, then volatility would increase, short selling would decline, and the POG in the spot market would rise.
So why do the largest holders of physical Gold play the commodities market and provide their Gold assets for leasing? To protect their largest clients who are also the largest investors in derivatives—JPM/C and the other top banksters perhaps?
BR549
megatron
(10/28/01; 22:35:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 64305)
BlackBlade
I would expect MAPT (maggot and associates protection team)
will jam the indexes like crazy this week. Look for a 100 point average up every day, as they pour everything 'they've' got on it. Shrt term buy calls med term buy puts long term buy gold. At 9700 we should see a substantial breakdown at that very high resistance level. If it goes beyond that god only knows what will happen. All logic will have been thrown away at that point, as no sane person could possibly buy after that.
Black Blade
(10/28/01; 22:13:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 64304)
Economy Data Due Out to Be 'Pretty Ugly'
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/011028/business_attack_economy_dc_1.html
Snippit:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A slew of data due out this week will shed light on how severely the Sept. 11 attacks have damaged the U.S. economy. And analysts warn the picture these key reports will reveal is not going to be pretty. Eagerly awaited reports will be released on October unemployment and manufacturing and on economic growth in the third quarter, which ended Sept. 30. Analysts expect all to show sharp declines and to confirm the U.S. economy, which was weak before Sept. 11, sunk into a recession after the attacks. ``The data are terrible,'' said Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp. in Cleveland. ``We're getting our best reads right now on the aftermath of September 11 and it's looking pretty ugly.''
Black Blade: This week should be "Interesting" if for anything to listen to the spin as the Pied Pipers come up with excuses. Will the public swallow it, or will "Irrational Exuberance" take over on empty promises of better times ahead?
Black Blade
(10/28/01; 21:38:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 64303)
MK - USAGOLD - "Conversions"
I read this article a couple of days ago and I had thought about adding my comments at the end of that same article. What more could I add. Many already had and they said about all that there was to say.
I also was surprised to read recent comments attributed to L. Kaplan about GoldCorp Inc. quarterly results. This unhedged miner takes the view that gold is money and they hold 28,000 ounces of physical in their account. Those are gutsy announcements to make and that makes them a strange bird in this business, especially when the largest gold producers and the World Gold Council are putting emphasis on promoting gold as jewelry.
Just the other night I commented that I saw an interveiw between a couple of Brits discussing Gold as an investment, The host (Mr. Quest?) was aghast that his quest strongly emphasized holding gold and further stated that he fully expected to see gold double in short order. It was quite a spirited exchange (Randy also saw this interview).
I think that we will hear and read of many more pro-gold comments in coming months as the recession deepens and many look for safe haven investments or just some place to park cash and wait out the storm. Gold investments have year-to-date outperformed all other sectors to the dismay of many on Wall Street. Hard assets such as physical precious metals are about as basic as one could get for portfolio insurance. When compared to paper investments it is sort of like saying "a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush."
I remember reading a short article in a past issue of "News and views" about Homestake Mining stock as a gold proxy (gold having been illegal for individual ownership at the time). The point being that when the equities markets crashed and unemployment rocketed, people went to gold for safety. In the 1970's with the Arab oil embargo and later the Iranian Revolution, investors again rushed to gold. I think that we could soon see a repeat of gold as a safe haven investment again.
Now if Gold Bear Ted Arnold were to join the fold, I will have to crack open another six-pack and swallow a couple of valiums just to calm my nerves. Cheers!
- Black Blade
The Invisible Hand
(10/28/01; 21:10:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 64302)
Two of Big Five accounting firms: World 'on brink of economic slump'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1625000/1625245.stm
The world may be on the brink of the "worst
economic downturn" since World War II,
according to accountants Deloitte & Touche.
…
[In a] separate survey by accountants
Pricewaterhouse Coopers (PWC) …
PWC chief economic adviser, Rosemary
Radcliffe, said: "Following the events of 11
September there is unparalleled uncertainty
about global economic prospects. …"
...
USAGOLD
(10/28/01; 20:38:25MT - usagold.com msg#: 64301)
The Confessions of a Gold Hedging Convert
http://www.mips1.net/MGGold.nsf/Current/4225685F0043D1B285256AF100636F88?OpenDocument
"The bottom line is that I'm largely optimistic, but have a residue dread about this and that;
hence a weakness for insurance products. Gold is going to be my portfolio insurance. Since it is
insurance I will probably roll my eyes every year about the lost value, but I won't touch it.
Then the CPA got too clever by half. "What sort of gold?" It's impractical to buy bullion and I
don't like coins. Why pay a premium for artwork that is duplicated more often than the Mona
Lisa? So it has to be gold equities which are a reasonable step away.
"Should I just ring up one of the gold funds and check what their entry levels are (not having
millions to deposit you see)?" asked the CPA. I almost said yes when I realized what a stupid
idea that would be. "No, the fund has to have only unhedged holdings," I said, apparently
involuntarily. But I really did hear myself say it.
I have crossed to the other side. Did you hear a light saber?"
Dear Tim,
Welcome. It starts with a 5% insurance policy. That's a beginning. It goes from there. Suddenly, you wake up one morning and you realize that, in a world seemingly gone mad, maybe 5% isn't nearly enough -- 10% sounds better. Then you start thinking, "You know, I really like accumulating this stuff." It goes from there. After the first few shipments are safely stored nearby, the whole idea begins to take on a clarity you had never imagined -- a course of action you had never contemplated before. Maybe I should go for 15%, you say to yourself -- the era of equities is over, at least for awhile. . . . . . Now you are a goldmeister. . . . . . . . It goes from there.
Let me say this:
Your thinking is sound, my friend. I think you will find, like many of us, that once you get to this place financially, psychologically, emotionally, not all the propaganda the mainstream media and Wall Street can muster is enough to shake the foundations. I suppose that's what frightens them so about gold. You join a prestigious and stubborn group, Tim, ranging from some of the best philosopher-economists of our time to the guy who called the offices the other day looking for $25 worth of gold to give to his small son as a gift, to Alan Greenspan who himself admitted that he has never been able to completely shake the attachment. Once smitten by Cupid's golden arrow. . . . . . .
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
All:
I highly recommend the Miningweb site linked above. Tim Wood is a very good writer and, more importantly, a top-notch thinker as most of you already know.
I'll leave you with this from "The ABCs of Gold Investing" written in 1996. It seems appropriate:
"This book is a distillation of nearly a quarter century of experience working with private investors interested in adding gold to their investment portfolios. It is not another "get rich quick" or "beat the market" treatise. Instead, it addresses a more practical concern -- how to protect your wealth during what many believe are increasingly dangerous times for the average investor. Sensational returns or making the quick turn of big profits is not what gold investing is all about. Gold has to do with medium to long-term asset preservation -- weathering the storm and having something left after the dust clears. Since the investor is essentially trading an inherently unstable and depreciating form of money for one that has withstood the test of time, incorporating gold into your investment plan is among the more conservative strategies you can undertake. I often counsel investors that purchasing gold is not 'investing' at all. In reality, you are simply replacing one form of money in your savings plan with another. . . .Perhaps gold can offer you what it has offered countless others over the centuries -- solid unassailable protection against the gathering storm."
I actually dictated that foreward to the book to my son as we drove to Cuchara, Colorado for a long weekend in the Sangre de Christo mountains. He was sixteen years old. By then the text was complete and ready for the editors. I do not think my view has changed much in the five years since. In 1997, we had the Asian contagion and the near collapse of the international banking system. In 1998, we had the Russian debt default and LTCM and without some late night engineering by Alan Greenspan, Wall Street would have gone in the tank. In 1999 and 2000 we had the NASDAQ collapse -- trillions of dollars in investor money was wiped out of existence. In 2001 we had the Twin Towers collapse and the quick slide into recession. This morning I read in the New York Times that a financial disaster every bit as bad as LTCM might be in the works at Enron corporation -- the energy traders. Why do I think that's only the tip of the iceberg? Gold is not an investment -- not in the strict sense of the word. It is an insurance, as Tim Wood so effectively points out. The article linked above is highly recommended.
Randy, since we have permission to republish from the Mining Web as we see fit (Thanks to Tim Wood), would you please get this article up at the Gilded Opinion page as soon as possible . . . . for future reference.
Black Blade: These Paulian conversions seem to be mounting. . . . . . . .still none more striking than Andy Smith's. I've completed the Quarterly Review and feeling a little burnt around the edges. Couldn't pass up the opportunity for this comment. What do you make of these conversions? Perhaps I should direct that to all. . . . . . . . . .but I thought that you in particular might have been thinking about this like most of us are. Of course, all are welcome aboard, I can remember a time when our ranks were more than thin -- at one time, we were as rag-tag as the Continental Army in the early stages of the war. It seems our ranks are growing.
By the way, in assembling the Review, I was looking at the charts and thinking about the Prechter Elliot Wave Analysis. I think that the 1999 signing of the Washington Agreement is probably a new and logical starting point in the wave count. I've always believed that there is a kind of synergy about the Elliot Wave Theory that rings true -- and I see Mr. Prechter's more philosophical writings on the subject as superb though I am not certain on his count. If 1999 and the Washington Agreement are indeed a starting point, I would say that we just completed the "two" down wave after the quick spurt up (One wave) and will be moving into the "three" of the ONE primary wave -- if this makes any sense at all. In other words, we are in for a good, solid run to the upside. Three waves are long and powerful, if RP is to be believed. At any rate, I thought I'd throw it out for consideration. ( I don't consider myself an Elliot Wave expert, though, as I say, I believe there's something to it -- IF YOU CAN NAIL THE SPOT ON THE CHART WHERE YOU PLACE THE NUMBER "1".) I offer this more for entertainment purposes than anything else. My primary reason for bringing it up is to pass along a concern that the price of portfolio insurance might be going up in the near future, and it wouldn't hurt to make your move before the Three Wave is launched. Though the scenario is taking a seemingly long time to unfold, I really do believe that September 1999 marks the beginning of a new era. Patience, my friends. This is the nature of things. If you will recall, the stock bull market was not built in a year or two, it took almost a decade for it to move into full gear. So it will likely be with gold. In the meantime, know that the gold you do own will act to keep evil from the portfolio's door and offer peace of mind to you and your family.
Guess I went on more than I thought . . . . .Have a nice evening, my friends.
The Invisible Hand
(10/28/01; 17:59:58MT - usagold.com msg#: 64300)
Euro postponement due to 911 would lead to even greater chaos
http://www.sunday-times.co.uk
From the World Section of today's London Sunday Times:
Dim Wim' at bay in euro rate-cut war
…
Amid growing jitters,
Jean-Pierre Chevčnement, a
left-wing candidate for the
French presidency, has called
for the currency to be delayed
because of a "new context of
concern and instability" caused
by the terrorist attacks on
America.
…
Despite calls for delay from Chevčnement and a small band of
continental eurosceptics, the 12 governments are sticking to
their timetable, if only out of fear of the even greater chaos that postponement might bring.
auspec
(10/28/01; 17:45:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 64299)
Murray/Chapman
Speaking of living on borrowed time............
TS{should}HTF sooner now with war/silver necessities, that much is unequivocal from Chapman's analysis. Can't run a war on paper silver, derivatives unacceptable {at least I don't think you can}. Paper tigers?
This is to be a "long war", where is the silver to come from? This clock is to be set forward! Do you know where your silver is?
Salud!
Mr Gresham
(10/28/01; 17:42:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 64298)
Black Blade
Great catch! -- the Darwin Award for terrorists! It would be funny if it weren't so sad, the whole story behind it. Kind of like the dumb bank robber stories, eh?
Black Blade
(10/28/01; 17:09:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 64297)
Living on Zionist Time
5 September 1999, Jerusalem
In most parts of the world, the switch away from Daylight Savings Time proceeds smoothly. But the time change raised havoc with Palestinian terrorists this year. Israel insisted on making a premature switch from Daylight Savings Time to Standard Time to accommodate a week of pre-sunrise prayers. Palestinians unequivocally refused to "live on Zionist Time." Two weeks of scheduling havoc ensued. Nobody knew the "correct" time.
At precisely 5:30 Israel time on Sunday, two coordinated car bombs exploded in different cities, killing three terrorists who were transporting the bombs. It was initially believed that the devices had been detonated prematurely by klutzy amateurs. A closer look revealed the truth behind the untimely explosions.
The bombs had been prepared in a Palestine-controlled area, and set on Daylight Savings time. The confused drivers had already switched to standard time. When they picked up the bombs, they neglected to enquire whose watch was used to set the timing mechanism. As a result, the cars were still en-route when the explosives detonated, delivering to the terrorists their well-deserved demise.
Black Blade: The moral of the story (A Darwin Award Winner) - don't be early. If you haven't set back your clock, do so now. Get that extra hour's sleep. ;-)
Netking
(10/28/01; 17:04:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 64296)
Auspec re: Chapman / Black Blade
Sir Auspec(64272) Re:Chapman & derivatives etc. The "jury is still out" on this as far as I am concerned pertaining to intervention "before THE meltdown"(TSHTF).
My initial feeling is that the derivatives beast has got to the size it has without any intervention so why intervene before "they" have proof they need to (eg "If it ain't broken then why fix it").
Intervention may/will happen after Ag starts to go vertical in one of several different forms involving one or more of: suspensions, cancellations, hiking up of deposits, freezing long contracts/calls, Govt bail outs of underwriters of the contracts and price fixing/setting.
Mr Chapmans view is one that would be greatly advantageous to Comex & the contract writers/underwriters given the likely scenario of how we guess the events will unfold. I suspect however we will see a partial meltdown in reality before intervention is agreed to. Despite some who take a different view I also think the paper longs will get their settlements at one level or another. All FWIW.
Blade Blade: Buying a put on the Dow for the next year could be "entertainment"!
- Cheers Murray
Black Blade
(10/28/01; 16:44:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 64295)
Decision Expected Soon on Boosting U.S. Oil Reserve
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20011026/pl/energy_abraham_spr_dc_1.html
Snippit:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham (news - web sites) said on Friday that the Bush administration's decision is ``imminent'' on whether to buy oil for the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Black Blade: It should be a "No-Brainer" but we are talking about politicians here. If anything politicians will always find a way to screw up a good deal.
Black Blade
(10/28/01; 16:28:13MT - usagold.com msg#: 64294)
Stocks Seen Bucking Grim Data
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/011028/business_financial_jpmorgan_report_dc_1.html
Snippit:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks should stretch their wings this week as investors' mounting enthusiasm over an economic bounce next year outshines disappointment over dreary earnings and economic numbers. ``We have squeezed all we are going to squeeze out of this market on the way down,'' said Stanley Nabi, managing director at Credit Suisse Asset Management, which oversees about $110 billion. ``Investors are looking beyond the valley. We know the rest of the year is going to be bad. We know the first part of next year is going to be bad. It's not going to come as a surprise anymore.''
Stocks clawed higher last week in the face of an unnerving rise in anthrax cases, a steady drip of poor quarterly profits and data painting a bleak economic picture. The broad Standard & Poor's 500 index (.SPX) climbed about 3 percent to 1,105 during the week and surpassed levels posted before the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States.
Black Blade: Then again …. There's always the "Irrational Exuberance" of sheep-like investors.
Black Blade
(10/28/01; 16:22:03MT - usagold.com msg#: 64293)
@Netking - S&P 500 at 800
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/011028/business_financial_jpmorgan_report_dc_1.html
I commented on this a few weeks ago and as recently as last week. I also calculated the S&P would be fairly valued at about 800 with a current PE of 36. I think that it should actually be lower now that earnings warnings are increasing and therefore PE valuations are even more absurd. I haven't taken the time to work out any new estimates, however, there are more corporate warnings to come. I know that David Tice of Prudent Bear has been even more of a pessimist than I. Should be interesting to read what his take is these days. I had also considered that the DOW (and index of only 30 stocks and very limited in scope) should be at about 7000. The Tech heavy NASDAQ is still grossly overvalued as well. In a word "GRIM"
Cheers!
- Black Blade
Black Blade
(10/28/01; 16:09:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 64292)
US jobs slump set to deepen global gloom
http://www.observer.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,581922,00.html
Snippit:
Dire employment figures out this week for the US are expected to be the strongest signal yet that the US economy is in recession. And the UK corporate sector is starting to feel the pinch. City economists expect that Friday's October US employment report will be the worst in at least a decade, with more than 300,000 job losses and unemployment rate up by 0.3 per cent to more than 5 per cent.
Black Blade: The growing "Bone Pile" will likely hit consumer confidence. As consumers vicariously learn of the pain this recession brings they will look for safe harbors. I watch the history channel and life under National Socialism. Many people were oblivious to the danger that lurked within the society. As their neighbors disappeared during the night they still did not recognize the danger. Ignorance is bliss. When the danger was so evident that it could no longer be ignored, they found that the cupboards were bare and they faced their own peril. Those who heeded the warning signs came through fairly intact.
jayzee
(10/28/01; 15:42:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 64291)
Black Blade Please Read - ENERGY
I suggest you and others look at www.silverado.com They mine gold but look at their Low-Rank Coal-Water Fuel division!!!
They are waiting on a grant from the US gov. to develop this process.
Congress and the Administration has a lot on their minds now, but I think that they should expedite this grant as soon as possible.
Please investigate, and if you agree, please write your Congesspeople. (They pay more attention to a handwritten letter).
Disclosure: I own shares in this company!!!
auspec
(10/28/01; 15:00:50MT - usagold.com msg#: 64290)
Netking
Comment on #64272?
auspec
(10/28/01; 14:58:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 64289)
Crashmaker Snippet
http://www.crashmaker.com
Today, collectivism takes two forms: SOCIALISM- control of the economy by the state, and control of the state by a self-designated "political class" {such as the Communist Party}, set apart from and superior to the rest of society by dint of their ideological fervor. And FASCISM- control of the economy by the state, and control of the state by big business and high finance, set apart from and superior to the rest of society by dint of their economic resources. In both of these systems, "collectivism" is a deceptive misnomer. In theory, collectivism posits control of the economy by society as a whole, under the immediate aegis of the state. But what actually exists wherever collectivism takes hold is real private control of ostensibly public institutions. Private groups- whether a political class or an economic oligarchy- further their own parochial interests through the mechanism of state power. This is gangster government.
And in the long run every collectivist society must collapse, because separating the purpose of government from striving for the COMMON good destroys social solidarity; and separating law from sound economics renders the country's system of production nonrational, driving living standards down to depths the people will not long suffer.END
Comment? Nope.
Belgian
(10/28/01; 14:50:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 64288)
The Oil Factor
To avoid LTCM-derivative accidents, volatility must fluctuate around the epicenter of the Bell-curve. The Russian *shock* was an example for the fall of LTCM.
LCTM or Argentina are absorbable mini-shocks, relatively easy to be contained. Oil, on the contrary at (34$) was on its way to provoke a much more dramatic, effect on the 100 trillion plus total derivatives. And the present POO (21$) hasn't said its last word. Some more thoughts :
The US oil-barrons / Pakistan / Iran / AND THE TALIBAN (!!!)
already had negociations in Berlin, (second degree), before 11/9, on the oil/gas pipeline through Afghanistan/Pakistan.
The situation, inside, swing producer Saudi Arabia, is much more explosive as percepted. The Caspian oil/gas (20% global reserves), alternative was on the table (Unocal). The Taliban (Iran's arch enemy) refused to negociate further and doesn't want the pipeline. Voila, now you can fill in why Iran and the Northern Alliance are treated as it is and the utmost importance on the evolutions inside S.Arabia + its relationship with all oil consumers AND producers !
It is going to become very difficult to apply the divide and rule - strategy, for the nearby future. Osama Bin Laden has more support than only the Taliban (Mafhouz/Saudi NCB).
Super cheap crude, Swingproducer S.A., faces the Caspian alternative and wants to obstruct the initiative. Enough reason for keeping the world in an oily grip for some time to come.
Netking
(10/28/01; 14:29:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 64287)
S & P to go down 28%?
"J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. chief portfolio strategist Doug Cliggott said the bellwether Standard & Poor's 500 Index could fall 28 percent below its current level by next spring" (to 800). (Source Ischcabibo)
. . . I sense a "sea change" here folks and some obvious accountability prior to changes in derivative legislation.
Mr Gresham
(10/28/01; 12:33:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 64286)
Invisible Hand
http://www.observer.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,581944,00.html
Thanks for the link on Euro's spread by previous linkages to Eurozone countries. It's kind of amazing (?) how the countries with former authoritarian histories are the most willing (Eastern Europe) to reach for currency stability before any type of monetary attempts to monkey with the business cycle. They're probably already impressed with the growth they've had using D-mark informally.
I'm probably off on my history of economic theories here, but shouldn't Friedman be delighted that someone is following his monetarist theory of a fiat currency that is pegged at a certain annual expansion rate as a proxy for PM backing? Isn't that close to what Euromakers are aiming to do, once the break-in period levels off?
The reserve currency franchise is a profitable-enough plum to go for (judging from their expensive support of the dollar through crises past and current), but they must impress the world with stability and predictability above all else. Is that what FOA calls "political styling?"
sourdough
(10/28/01; 11:22:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 64285)
INDONESIA
October 28, 2001
Megawati warns of possible disintegration of Indonesia
JAKARTA - President Megawati Sukarnoputri today warned Indonesia could "become the Balkans of the eastern hemisphere" if her countrymen did not work harder at keeping their nation together, the state Antara news agency reported.
Miss Megawati said that unless conflicts between ethnic and religious groups and villages were halted, the nation of more than 210 million people spread over some 17,000 islands faced breaking up into a series of tiny powerless states.
She also warned that anti-American sentiment sweeping the country - the largest Muslim-populated nation in the world - since the US launched its attack on Afghanistan was causing foreign investment to dry up.
"We will become the Balkans of the eastern hemisphere that will not only never enjoy happiness among ourselves but also will represent dangers for nations around us," Miss Megawati said, according to the state Antara news agency, at a ceremony to mark Youth Pledge Day.
"We will become smaller nations with equally smaller states which will be more susceptible to so much pressure from outside," she said.
Hardline Muslim groups have threatened to conduct sweeps to drive out nationals from the United States and its allies following the US attacks on Afghanistan, although no such sweep has taken place so far.
She warned that the lack of security in the country had began to thin out the inflow of foreign investment into Indonesia, and said some foreign companies were preparing to leave.
"The absence of a feeling of security now is not only felt by our own people, but has also affected the diplomatic circle and several foreign companies whose presence here is still needed," Miss Megawati said.
"Nowadays, not only the arrival of foreign companies has been drastically reduced, even companies which are already in the country are also preparing to leave us," she added.
She said that even though Indonesia was determined to work to shed dependency from other nations, it still needed foreign capital and investment to finance development.
She called on all Indonesians to think of national unity above their own aspirations.
"Riots and violence should be stopped by everyone," Miss Megawati said.
"We have to restore and guarantee a feeling of security for all people residing in this country, be they citizens of the Republic of Indonesia or foreigners," she said.
(now there`s 210 million people who better be thinking about gold investment. who knows, even "touching a U.S. dollar may get your hand chopped off. could be more offensive that shaking hands with "your bum hand")
Leigh
(10/28/01; 11:10:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 64284)
Trail Guide
Dear Trail Guide: Hope I didn't offend you with my feeble attempt at humor yesterday. After posting my comment, I went back to the ANOTHER archives and discovered that I had misquoted ANOTHER (he said "a small nose," not "a camel's nose"). So now I'm doubly embarrassed. Please take my comments in the spirit in which they were written, which is simply an expression of good will and appreciation for your ongoing commentary.
Old Yeller
(10/28/01; 10:31:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 64283)
The latest from Jim Pupluva
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.htm
Interesting Sunday reading.
MO VER MEG
(10/28/01; 08:50:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 64282)
Black Blade
Yesterday, I was quite surprised when stopping at a local Walmart (Sioux Falls) for computer supplies. I found the parking lot full, the aisles packed and the ink cartridges for my printer almost gone. I guess it is back to spending as usual.
Next week, I will fill the gas and diesel barrels, cut wood and pick up more groceries. I suspect "hoof in mouth" will be playing in a community near us, soon.
Thanks for your USA Gold posts - always interested in reading them.
Movermeg
Clint H
(10/28/01; 08:02:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 64281)
Black Blade (10/28/01; 05:03:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 64279)
Energy - National and Economic Security
A Brave New World or Mad Max?
Bravo!!!!!! All your hard work is appreciated.
Cavan Man
(10/28/01; 06:50:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 64280)
The Long and Winding Gold Trail
"People and governments have never learned anything from history or acted upon the principles deduced from it."
Georg Friedrich Hegel
Black Blade
(10/28/01; 05:03:04MT - usagold.com msg#: 64279)
Energy - National and Economic Security
A Brave New World or Mad Max?
The events of Sept. 11, 2001 should have been a "Wake Up Call" for the US. Unfortunately Americans are back to living their lives oblivious to the world around them and the consequences of our failure as a nation to become energy independent. The issue may be forced on the US before long. Even though the US government is well within their rights to pursue the terrorists, many of the people in the Middle-East countries view the attacks in Afghanistan as an attack by the west on Islam. This could very well lead to instability in the region as terrorism and revolution could spread in moderate states, and terrorists activities are sure to continue. It should be noted that if these activities consume Pakistan, then we could have a rouge nuclear threat on our hands.
There are already calls by OPEC to trim petroleum prices to increase oil prices. Obviously with any expanding instability in the Middle East will affect oil exploration and production. That is why it is extremely important that the US become energy independent and not be held hostage by Middle-East countries that just as soon see the destruction of the western civilizations. Perhaps when the people of the west wake up and realize that our oil supply is dependent on located in countries where citizens intensely hate the US and what it represents, then the US will be likely to look favorably on domestic production.
It is extremely important that the US pass legislation to open up areas of high potential for new oil and gas exploration and production that are now in moratorium. This extremely important not just to salvage the western economies, but more importantly for national security. It has to be done soon as the time required to develop new production can take several years. The concerns of the oil crises in the 1970's opened the way for the Alaska pipeline. This new crisis may just be what is needed to spur the legislatures to open up ANWR and other prospective areas such as the Rocky Mountain Front and offshore Southern California.
The US must look to develop unconventional oil and gas resources. This of course will never happen with currently low petroleum prices. Matt Simmons of Simmons Company and Intl. has called for a "Marshall Plan" for energy development. There must be support through government tax incentives to spur more exploration and develop of domestic supply. The US should also continue to look at developing domestic natural gas rather than depending on foreign oil. The energy generating facilities, refineries, transmission grids, and pipelines are at risk as these still exists the vulnerability to terrorist activities.
The US is fighting for an ever shrinking pie as "Cheap Oil" supply is declining. If and when the global economy recovers there will be a huge demand on oil and natural gas. The high technology boom of the 1990's has resulted more energy consumption. The emerging nations of Latin America, Asia, Eastern Europe, and the former Soviet Union will demand their share and will compete with the US for foreign oil. It will be like a pack of wild dogs fighting over a few scraps of meat.
There are countries outside of the Middle East that are major suppliers of foreign oil. These include the former Soviet Union and Southeast Asia. These areas cannot be counted on either. The US has fallen out of favor with most oil producing regions around the world. Sadly since the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973, the US has been held hostage by Middle East instability. As hostages to foreign oil we have to break the chains and escape from this dire situation. It hasn't gotten much better as oil supply has been in jeopardy with each passing event whether it be the Iranian Revolution, the Iran-Iraq War, the Iraqi Invasion of Kuwait, Arab terrorism, Israeli terrorism, Israeli-Palestinian conflicts, etc. And now with the World Trade Center and the Pentagon reduced to piles of rubble, we now see the result of what our energy dependence has led to.
The energy crisis is far from over. To emerge from this worst economic slump since the 1930's, we will have to rely on additional sources of "Cheap Energy" or this recession will last for years. Once economic recovery begins, there must be significant supply of energy. If not, then rising energy demand will cap any economic recovery with higher (much higher) energy costs. I expect this to be a very long and protracted recession (possibly leading to a full-blown depression).
We are about to enter into a "Brave New World." People should do their best to beak free of the chains of economic slavery. Get out of debt as soon as possible, get basic supplies like food stuffs and dry goods, get very "picky" with your investments, and protect your wealth will a portion put away into hard assets such as Gold and Silver. If the economy recovers and all works out well, then great. However, "prepare for the worst and hope for the best" in the meantime. At least over the next several years you will sleep better knowing that you looked out for number one and your families, and even gained a degree of independence.
It comes down to reducing our dependence on foreign oil and increasing our domestic supply, or learn to seriously change our way of life. Energy independence is the most patriotic thing we can do to win this war and to stop being held hostage.
- Black Blade
The Invisible Hand
(10/28/01; 04:50:59MT - usagold.com msg#: 64278)
Friedman corrected
The final two sentences of the last but one paragraph of my Friedman post should read as follows:
He greets the interest rate policy of the Fed as a good means to boost the American economy. He warned however that this could lead to inflation in the long term.
The Invisible Hand
(10/28/01; 03:57:36MT - usagold.com msg#: 64277)
The euro's twilight zone and its virtual members
http://www.observer.co.uk/business/story/0,6903,581944,00.html
FOA predicted on the Trail:
The moment England is seen as even a "virtual" member of the Euro club; the world will jump on every physical ounce of gold available at whatever dollar amounts anyone will part with it,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, and sell every paper gold play into the dirt in the process!!
(FOA (10/25/01; 17:19:54MT - usagold.com msg#125))
Here's from today's UK's Observer:
Who's in the twilight zone?
Faisal Islam on how the new currency will also be used in West Africa, South America, the Pacific and eastern Europe
Despite having declined to sign up, Britain features on the map of Europe that adorns the euro banknotes; (so do Switzerland, Denmark, Serbia, and Russia. Perhaps the map signals a statement of expansionist intent.)
…
The Invisible Hand
(10/28/01; 02:53:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 64276)
Milton Friedman: Euro-introduction is a big mistake
http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,152301,00.html
This is from Germany's Der Spiegel. Disclaimer: I don't know German nor English.
The American economist and Nobel price laureate Milton Friedman considers the introduction of the euro to be a big mistake. The differences between the individual economies are too big.
Mailand – Friedman says in an interview with the Italian daily "Corriere della Sera" that he expects turbulences in a number of European Economies after the currency.
With the introduction of the common currency, the economic differences between the Member States will particularly be put in the spotlight. He gives Ireland as an example which should sharpen its opinion on monetary policy. Italy, on the contrary, needs a more flexible monetary policy. In view of the present recession, Germany should have a cheap money policy,
Friedman expects a recession for the US economy. This recession will be less serious that earlier recessions. Next year, the US economy should grow again. The greets the interest rate policy of the Fed as a good means to boost the American economy. He warned however that this could to inflation in the long term.
In the eighties Friedman became known as the economic adviser of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.
Black Blade
(10/28/01; 01:26:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 64275)
Oil and terror
http://www.nationalpost.com/scripts/printer/printer.asp?f=/stories/20011027/756848.html
Snippit:
While the U.S. relies on Saudi Arabia as a key ally in the war on terrorism, the Saudi government is funding the instruments of its own demise. Rampant government corruption and an increasingly embittered, home-grown extremist movement could soon push Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, over the edge at a time when the United States desperately needs its co-operation to win its war against terrorism.
That is the view of officials of the National Security Agency (NSA), the U.S. spy agency that, over the past seven years, has been intercepting high-level conversations between key members of the ruling royal family. Among the NSA's findings, recently published in The New Yorker magazine, is that the regime is so weak that "it has channeled hundreds of millions of dollars in what amounts to protection money to fundamentalist groups that wish to overthrow it."
Black Blade: Interesting article. The Saudi Royals have been paying off Tribal Chieftains and Muslim clerics for years. It appears that the well has run dry and soon the largest supplier of ME oil could face revolution or significant change in relations with the west. The result is that ME oil could be restricted and petroleum prices will likely rise much higher.
LimitUp
(10/28/01; 00:56:28MT - usagold.com msg#: 64274)
Be A Market Maker
I've been a Goldbug for 50 years, have enjoyed and learned alot lurking at this website. I don't like being victimized by a bunch of central banksters. I've decided to become proactive by running a classified ad to educate the sheeple,(an investment in our future):FOR SALE, one ounce pure solid gold(24K) Canadian maple leaf coin. $1500 firm. If I get any calls my reply will be "I'm sorry it's sold" I've given this idea some moral consideration and feel I'm doing nothing more than "fixing" the price of "my" gold. I would hope the sheeple will discover and buy lots of $300 gold. Use whatever means we have to correct this manipulated situation. No one likes to be screwed by central banksters. Honest money = Au/Ag PS :Thank you Black Blade - Your posts are great.
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
Permission to reprint is hereby granted where the USAGOLD name is cited along with our web address, mailing address and phone number. For electronic reproductions, citing the post heading and the http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/ website address as the source is sufficient.
|
Centennial Precious Metals Gold coins & bullion since 1973 Denver, Colorado 80246-0009 We educate first-time investors! |
for quotes and purchase information.
|
