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ARCHIVED DISCUSSION FROM 4/28/2000
All times are U.S. Mountain Time
(Yesterday's Discussion.)
THC
(4/28/2000; 22:32:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 29563)
Oro - Euro Crush and the Dollar parabolic spike
Oro, another EXCELLENT post!!
This is the kind of post that you can really sink your teeth into.......exceedingly satisfying reading.
Oro, every time I read your work.......I can't help but feel that you have the wonderful ability to "stand outside the box" and pull together a truly compelling description of the big picture. Pehaps I don't look in the right places, but I don't remember ever seeing such excellent "fundamental analysis" of global money flows.
Which leads me to believe.......that you might have a very interesting background......
Would it be possible for you to tell us a little bit more about your personal history (perhaps with any private names / places omitted)? It would be interesting to know more about how your arrived where you are now in terms of your "world view" and "understanding of the global economic system".
Many thanks!!!
THC
Marius
(4/28/2000; 22:06:45MT - usagold.com msg#: 29562)
Topaz & Town Crier
Topaz,
I wasn't ignoring your question; just unable to get back to the forum for now. It's fortuitous, as Sir Crier gave you a fine answer.
Sir Crier,
Thanks for clarifying the euro/gold situation, and for answering Topaz's question far more eloquently and accurately than I could have. I look forward to more discussion as events unfold.
M
YGM
(4/28/2000; 21:54:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 29561)
CB-2
Will miss your postings....Enjoyed our Gold Mining talks re;
B.C. Kootenays. Take care and if ever this far north, come visit the mines etc. I'll be here..................
yukongold@yknet.yk.ca
Happy trails til your return.........YGM.
Go GATA & Physical GOLD.
YGM
(4/28/2000; 21:45:56MT - usagold.com msg#: 29560)
Soros and Robertson.......
Turn the Tide on Your Losses Guys........
Chase the Gold Shorts to "Hell"..........Squeeze em, for all they're worth. Hey Julian, remember the 2 Billion Tiger lost in Oct 98, when the Yen took off against the US $, well why not get it back in less time with a short squeeze of Paper Gold. You and George can pull it off alone....YGM.
YGM
(4/28/2000; 21:19:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 29559)
"Dump Bonds"...... Yes....but dump Dollars too!
W/ only less than I.2 Mill Oz and U.S. printed "Airy Nothings" for...
currency backing, I'd say look-out below for Canadian $$$ and Bonds if the U.S. $ takes a hit.......Trade a less than worthless piece of Canadian Paper for some of Mr. Kosares Gold Coins.....If there was ever a time in recent history for a
Tobacco Can or Milk Can of Gold & Silver Coins in the Root Cellar floor it's "NOW"........IMO........YGM.
...........................................................................................
Foreign investors love our stocks, hate our bonds
WebPosted Wed Apr 26 17:24:58 2000
OTTAWA - Foreign investors liked Canadian stocks in February, but not Canadian bonds.
According to figures released Wednesday by Statistics Canada, foreign investors bought $4.1 billion worth of Canadian securities during the second month of the year, especially technology firms. But balancing that figure was the continuing sell off of $4.4 billion in Canadian bonds.
Since December foreigners have dumped $13 billion in bonds, according to StatsCan.
Canadians, on the other hand, bought $2.8 billion in foreign stocks during the same month. They also shed a small amount of foreign bonds.
R Powell
(4/28/2000; 20:57:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 29558)
Predictions from Ben
For those among us following Ben's forecasts at Gold-eagle, look during the 20th hour posts. He's at it again and calling for big moves down, DOW below 9600 and NAS down to around 1500. Concerning gold? still calling for limit moves and says he expects Soros to "nuke" this market. With his company reorganised (fragmented), who knows? All this with Nostradamus and planets lining up too. It sure is fun watching even though not so profitable lately.
Mr. Gersham, have a safe trip. We'll expect a full report immediately upon your return.
Mr. Cobra(Too), by all means proceed onward, return or not as you see fit. You will be missed.
Leigh
(4/28/2000; 20:25:27MT - usagold.com msg#: 29557)
Al
Dear Al: Well, we did go to Boston for a little trip (two months ago), but I had the impression that you were too busy to try to meet. No big deal. We have moved away from New England since then. We live outside of D.C. now.
elevator guy
(4/28/2000; 19:11:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 29556)
@CoBra(too)
Dear CB2, It is unfortunate to hear of your departure.
Although I never answered any of your posts, I always enjoyed reading them.
Your European perspective on events was a valuble asset to the Forum, and will be missed.
BTD
(4/28/2000; 18:09:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 29555)
George Soros' hedge fund bites the dust
http://www.thestreet.com/markets/marketfeatures/929758.html
"Today marked the end of an era in investing.
One of the most profitable and best-known global hedge funds in history -- Soros Fund Management -- is history.
While the fund said today that it will remain in operation after a 'thorough reorganziation,' make no mistake. It's over.
After 31 1/2 years of beating the markets in everything from stocks and bonds to currencies and commodities, Soros came apart in a mere four weeks, according to interviews with George Soros, his departing senior portfolio manager, Stan Druckenmiller and other sources close to Soros.
The story of how that happened speaks volumes about the ability of the market to surprise even the best traders, and the relentless pressure of managing money in the most volatile financial markets we have ever seen."
- See link above for the rest of the story.
Harley Davidson
(4/28/2000; 17:45:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 29554)
The hunter becomes the prey...
This item from CNNfn:
[The Justice Department Friday and 17 states asked a federal judge to break up Microsoft Corp. into two smaller companies as punishment for the software giant's antitrust violations. One company would be in charge of the operating system business and the other company would be in charge of all other Microsoft businesses, including MSNBC, Office and Internet Explorer.]
I've been in the technology industry since 1980 and this is my opinion for what its worth. This split could be the death knell for Microsoft. I say this because MSFT has always had a philosophy of software development that goes something like this: "We won't make any program better than we have to or before we have to." I have seen numerous occasions where Microsoft products were clearly second tier when compared to products that represent the result of motivated genius competing in a marketplace unfairly dominated by Microsoft.
For example, Microsoft Word is absolutely bogus when comparing feature for feature and ease of use with a slick word processor like WordPerfect. Compare Microsoft SQL Server to Oracle, hah! Let's look at the software development marketplace: from Microsoft we have Visual Basic, wow what a piece of garbage! For those of you not in the industry, Visual Basic allows software developers to develop programs, using the BASIC programming language (read obsolete) that run in Windows. No thinking person would choose to develop a program with Visual Basic when they have Borland's Delphi, which provides a sophisticated integrated development environment (IDE) that allows the developer to write programs in Object Pascal. For years, Visual Basic used what is know as an interpreter. This means the Visual Basic program is "interpreted" by another program so the computer can execute it - a two step process (read slow). This is the way it was for years, why, because Microsoft didn't care if Visual Basic was a dog...until Delphi came along which compiled programs into .exe files which are read directly by the machine (read fast as lightning). And even comparing Microsoft's C++ compiler to Borland's C++ compiler is no contest. Just ask anyone who has used both of them. So why do business buy this second tier garbage? Because its not the people who use it that make the decisions. On the contrary, its management who think "its Microsoft, it's a smart decision." What irony. If the decision makers in corporate America had to actually use Microsoft products, Microsoft would have gone out of business fifteen years ago.
So, how has a company with bogus products been able to successfully compete? Most importantly, they own the operating system/platform i.e. Windows 95/2000/NT. Is that all? No, among other illegal practices, they also resort to hiring the best and brightest away from their competition with multi-million sign-on bonuses and give them positions of little or no responsibility (read predatory practice, also illegal) or just to do a brain drain on them so they can learn the competitions secrets. But primarily, Microsoft owes its success to Windows. Among other advantages, it allows Microsoft to get a head start on software projects for Windows months before the competition ever even sees the new Windows code they have to write to.
When looking at the way Microsoft is to be broken up, note that it is a strategic move. The leverage is being removed. "One company will be in charge of the operating system" i.e. Windows 95/2000/NT. They will be on their own to compete with... Linux, a version of the Unix operating system. Unix is the operating system that manages the Internet. Linux is free! Doesn't look good for that baby Microsofty. Then the "other company would be in charge of all other Microsoft businesses, including MSNBC, Office and Internet Explorer". They will have to compete, for the first time, against the likes of Oracle, IBM/Lotus, Corel, AOL/Netscape on a level playing field. It won't be pretty. Maybe this is why Paul Allen dumped 99% of his MSFT shares over the last twelve months.
I have to say at this time though, I don't begrudge Bill Gates for all of his money, though it's a heck of a lot less than it was in January. Rather its his attitude toward, and method of, conducting business that has brought this upon him and should Microsoft actually be broken up after all of the lengthy appeals that are sure to follow, I won't shed a tear. I say, appreciate it...because it will be one of the few examples of justice you get to witness.
JCTex
(04/28/00; 16:55:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 29553)
"Smaller is better"
I thought my TV was better trained, but it stopped on MSNBC long enough for me to hear a Democrat pundit say that "smaller was better" in his comments about Microsoft.
I guess he is right, and if so, how about a smaller ABC, NBC, CBS; oh, and above all, no more "news"paper giants.
Maybe, just maybe, we could then get facts instead of platitudes and propoganda. We might even get the facts about market manipulation and manipulators like Goldman Sachs and their close friends in government.
When history is written on the current era, it won't be about our markets, it won't be about our crooked government; rather, I think it will be written about the betrayal of the American people by the self-serving "press."
SHIFTY
(04/28/00; 16:36:12MT - usagold.com msg#: 29552)
N.Y PONZI
Nasdaq 3,860.66 + Dow 10,733.91 = 14594.57 divide by 2 = PONZI 7297.28 down 33.78 ponzi points.
They say you learn somthing new each day. Today I learned how to correctly spell DIVIDE ! lol Sorry, that is why I never have much to say. Poor speller.
Harley Davidson
(04/28/00; 16:26:39MT - usagold.com msg#: 29551)
Cobra(too)
Ah, the search for self...for authenticity perhaps...I think it was Plato who said "The unexamined life is not worth living." I, for one, encourage you to do what you must do. All else is just distraction. God bless...
TownCrier
(04/28/00; 16:14:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 29550)
To the most noble and kind Sir CoBra(too)
"I feel prompted to say thank you to MK and TC for the hospitality on this great round table, as well as all the other ladies and knights, whose wisdom was like a shining torch for a couple of years."
I assure you, your chair will always be held in reserve for your welcome return to our hearth with tales of your quests and thoughts of your heart's desire.
Fare thee well, wherever thee may fare. I raise a glass in your honor.
TownCrier
(04/28/00; 16:05:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 29549)
Reality Check: A clear look at where we now stand in the world of money...dollar vs. gold vs. euro values
From the same Bloomberg article cited earlier today that revealed the euro to be down 22 percent against the dollar, we have this additional fact about the dollar itself:
New York, April 27 (Bloomberg) - "Against a trade-weighted index of other major currencies the dollar closed last week at its strongest since July 17, 1999."
So naturally we would want to investigate how well gold has been holding up in its exchange rate with the dollar, and to do this, let us look back to that time in July when the dollar was at this same "trade-weighted" level. July 17 was a Saturday, actually, so here is a flashback to July 16, 1999 to see where gold was, as reported by FWN.
New York--Jul 16 (1999)--COMEX Aug gold futures were up as much as $2.50 in
early trade today, but as the session wore on the short-covering rally
fizzled, and Aug settled down 30c at $254.50. Traders said that the
half-hearted attempts to rally suggest gold could extend its recent
losses. Aug fell to a contract low of $253.70 Thursday, which was also a
fresh 20-year low on continuous charts.
***As you can see, even under the psychologically crushing heels of upcoming UK and Swiss gold sales, gold is stronger today ($272.50 spot) than it was against that "quasi-equally strong dollar" seen last July. In fact, as currently priced against that "same" dollar, gold has in truth gained eight percent in nine months.***
And further, Bridge News offers this comment by Leonard Kaplan, speaking about the upcoming effect of the Swiss gold sales:
[B] New York--April 28--
"Gold may drift slightly lower during this period of uncertainty,"
said Leonard Kaplan, chief bullion trader at LFG Bullion Services, but he
also said much of the decline was due to the continued strength in the
dollar.
"Gold is truly in a bull market in 95% of the world's currencies," he
said.
He noted that a $275 ounce would have seen a price tag of 233 euros when
the euro was launched just over a year ago; that ounce now costs 302
euros.
So as you can see, gold is doing quite well indeed from almost any clear perspective you might choose for your viewing angle. This should strike us as quite natural, and therefore no surprise. But considering to background items, it IS a surprise, and its performance is all the more remarkable when these two items are considered.
First is the fact that gold is holding up against the dollar, which is itself on a FOREX rampage as described in my previous post (and explained so very well by ORO in his post today). Second is the fact that gold has (with the benefit of the Washington Agreement and the pullback announcements in producer hedging positions) held up in the face of price discovery as determined by the traders' actions on the futures markets as we have explained in posts earlier this week and also on last Friday. As a reminder of this ease and impunity with which certain willful entities can act to suppress the price by selling futures in the active month more aggressively than others step up to buy, we offer this exceprt from that same FWN report cited above from July 16, 1999:
(FWN) -- "Any rallies continue to be used as selling opportunities," said Tony
Caen, senior precious metals dealer at Credit Lyonnais Rouse.
"It ran into a brick wall at $256 spot," he said, noting that it ran
into some selling from the "usual suspects" namely large NY trade houses.
"People are selling rallies, selling dips, selling into oblivion," he
lamented.
Knowing as you now should from past discussion that this current dollar-strength is a temporary phenomenon, and that continued demand for physical gold by the non-western world will lead to a likely sharp and sudden separation of pricing between the physical and derivative gold markets (due to non-delivery), we offer this astute advice today from our favorite Yukon Gold Miner: "Mine the Manipulation and leave the Gold in the ground for the time being!"
Indeed! When you can acquire the wealth of real gold at better and better low prices determined by the futures markets, it is quite prudent (and painless) to do so...that is, when you realize that that is what you are doing.
CoBra(too)
(04/28/00; 15:55:33MT - usagold.com msg#: 29548)
Further to my "fina"l post...
Dear Forum, dear friends,
my departure from the forum has absolutely nothing to do with the quality of this great forum and the friends I feel to have come across - bigger than real life, though virtual - though more of a kindred spirit as ever.
I just feel we're all barking up the same tree, without having any kind of impact upon the virtual reality, which is so blatantly predominant in these overall rigged markets. If and when the world comes back to a level playing field, we may be able to discuss economic fundamentals (as ORO and many others strive to explain) again.
Alas, I feel, I personally need a sort of sabbatical, a leave to think and figure out my own life, which I intend to "get back", without drowning in misery and blame to 3rd. (no, counterparties), for which I have only utmost contempt.
Anyway, all my cyber friends, and particularily those respoding to my "final" post, be assured I will stay a kindred spirit, pro gold & forum. I will, time permitting go on lurking and if the good MK is willing, I'll be back in touch as soon as it makes sense.
I feel prompted to say thank you to MK and TC for the hospitality on this great round table, as well as all the other ladies and knights, whose wisdom was like a shining torch (Kienspan - no, not Greenspan) for a couple of years.
May the reality of true money shine opon you - gold!
Thank you all and good luck - CB2
Hill Billy Mitchell
(04/28/00; 15:30:32MT - usagold.com msg#: 29547)
Official release
http://www.bog.frb.us/releases/H15/update/
Official: Federal Reserve Statistical Release
Release Date: April 28, 2000
Rates for Thursday, April 27, 2000
Federal funds 6.00
Treasury constant maturities:
3-month 5.75
10-year 6.23
20-year 6.34
30-year 6.00
upside down spread FF vs long bond = (.00%)
Farfel
(04/28/00; 15:17:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 29546)
The Establishment Persecuting Goldbugs...
Date: Fri Apr 28 2000 17:10
cjk (French bank chief investigated) ID#277212:
Copyright © 2000 cjk/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
The bank tried to hide its huge losses and had to be bailed out by the French Government.
Mr Trichet was the Treasury official responsible for supervising state-owned banks at the time.
He is being formally investigated for "spreading false information to the markets and presenting and publishing inexact accounts".
Mr Trichet, who has been Bank of France governor since 1993, is earmarked to replace Wim Duisenberg as head of the European Central Bank in 2002.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_729000/729848.stm
--------
For those who are not familiar with Mr. Trichet, he is a goldbug OPPOSED to any notable gold reserve sales and has gone on the record to that effect.
On the other hand, Duisenberg, current head of the ECB, is known for his anti-gold sentiments.
No doubt if the Establishment can bury Trichet under a pile of indictments, they can then find themselves another anti-gold European to replace Duisenberg when his term expires.
Same old, same old. Most likely the work of Friends of Bill.
Thanks
F*
Farfel
(04/28/00; 15:08:14MT - usagold.com msg#: 29545)
@OLD GOLD....Yes, I spoke to Frank directly
He sat at our table at the CMRE affair in New York.
However we seem to agree that the only CB's interested in getting rid of gold are the heavily indebted Western CB's whereas the Eastern CB's especially those running trade surpluses appear to be net purchasers.
That is scary (for Western nations) since the Eastern nations have become the primary goods producers of the world while the Western nations have become the service and information providers. The West's increasing dependency on goods probided by Eastern nations is not healthy in the long run.
As for shooting the messenger, again I do not have anything personal against APH et al. However I know that markets today move primarly on perception and so long as certain individuals continue to create an extremely negative, oft untruthful perception of gold, then their prophecies become self-fulfilling. Until discredited, the gurus can move mountains since the general public believes in following those who are proven right (even if the basis of their theories and speculations are ultimately invalid).
Always great hearing your input.
Thanks
F*
totalamateur
(04/28/00; 14:58:06MT - usagold.com msg#: 29544)
Bullion license!?
Could someone please tell me, what is a bullion license, and how do you obtain one?
ET
(04/28/00; 14:21:07MT - usagold.com msg#: 29543)
Al
Hey Al - glad to hear you're doing well. What is a Signature Gallery?
I'm clueless about real estate so I have little to offer. I have several friends that used to lease properties but I believe all of them have sold.
ET
Cavan Man
(04/28/00; 14:10:00MT - usagold.com msg#: 29542)
ALL
There's an interesting post over at G-E by a "Goldfinger" at 15:03.
YGM
(04/28/00; 13:57:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 29541)
Platinum Rise....
Whats the fuel....?
Physical accumulation or paper futures games????
I'd like to know myself......Always seems the same game as Gold, drive it down with paper and accumulate physical on the way up........NO?
Elwood
(04/28/00; 13:10:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 29540)
beesting (04/28/00; 10:28:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 29527)
beesting, send me your email and I'll send the Excel file or the charts. I dunno about MK's policy on other stuff on his site.
send to elwoodw@hotmail.com
or you can just download the excel file yourself it's at this link:
http://www.geocities.com/goldtango/goldxports.xls
There are 2 gif files with the charts. They are:
http://www.geocities.com/goldtango/xports0427.gif
http://www.geocities.com/goldtango/2xports0428.gif
All, updated again with a new and improved view of the exports and Fed data plotted with industry production survey estimates. To me, the production data doesn't add much. What do you all think?
oldgold
(04/28/00; 12:54:40MT - usagold.com msg#: 29539)
Farfel
APH is far from perfect to be sure. He did not predict the post Washington agreement price surge, but neither did anyone else.
Isn't this a case of attacking the messenger for bringing bad news?
You might consider saving your ire for more worthy tagets. Like the fed, the treasury, the bullion banks, and the anti-gold financial establishment in general.
According to Frank Veneroso, most of the world's CBs would like to dump their gold, but recognize that is a political impossibility. The main exception is the Bank of France.
BTW, this flies directly in the face of everything ANOTHER has been saying for years. And Frank Veneroso is a friend of gold -- no Andy Smith he.
Galearis
(04/28/00; 12:51:02MT - usagold.com msg#: 29538)
POG at an all time low....?
FWIW if one factors in inflation at 7% we are now at $253 gold in 1999 dollars. Apt or not, it is one perspective.
APH may be right, sir Farfel.
The BIS must be apoplectic right about now.
Best regards,
G.
Farfel
(04/28/00; 12:50:48MT - usagold.com msg#: 29537)
@STRAD MASTER...Hello my friend
Long time no speak. We're waiting for you to make your visit soon. Look forward to it.
Thanks for the clarification re: APH. He never seems to post muchof any personal info so I always wondered about him.
Gold continuing to plunge into the toilet but what I notice is the unusually blase indifferent (even mirthful) attitude of gold investors on these forums.
What a change in attitude. I think most gold investors have already experienced enough loss and fear to last them several lifetimes and now they are simply watching this market more out of curiousity than any kind of real nervousness. At least that's my impression.
There have been so many negative left field events in the gold market these past few years that the Laws of Nature favor the next negative field event will be aimed at the gold shorts. Hard to tell what it will be though.
Anyway whatever whatever. My interest at this point is largely academic.
Best to you, the wife and kids.
Farfel
RossL
(04/28/00; 12:49:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 29536)
Ted Butler
http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_00/butler042800.html
Ted Butler's latest article about the recent events in the PM futures markets.
Strad Master
(04/28/00; 12:21:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 29535)
Farfel
RE: APH
Once, a long time ago, when I first installed my AOL instant messenger, I wound up chatting with APH a few times late at night. He lives in Boston and, from what I gathered, is an individual trader with his own system. I have always been intertested in how he does it since in the short run he can be remarkably accurate. I haven't followed his predictions about big trend reversals as you have. I imagine, though, that those would not show up in his technical model since, by and large, they reflect fundamental surprises that entered the market to change the trend. Hope all iw well with you and dear Mrs. Farfel. My best to you both.
Strad Master
(04/28/00; 12:12:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 29534)
USA Gold
RE: Nick Guarino and Wall Street Underground
Dear Mike: Nick Guarino has been screaming about an imminent bear market for at least 5 years! He constantly claims, with 20/20 hindsight, to have made his subscribers vast fortunes of money but I can personally attest to the fact that anyone following his recommendations from a few years ago would have been wiped out long ago. I suspect that the bulk of the money he actually makes is from selling his newsletter to subscribers (I know - I was one.) Fortunately (or unfortunately - depending on how one looks at it), MONEX wiped me out before I had a chance to try out any of Nick Guarino's market advice. To his great credit, Nick Guarino continues to send me his newsletter despite my subscription having elapsed long ago. I enjoy getting it since he fulminates so colorfully about the market manipulation he perceives, that it is always an entertaining read. It's llkely that one of these days (perhaps soon) he will be right in his assesment of the markets. Lately, I have noticed that he has been getting better at it - so it might just be that the right time is fast approaching the stopped clock.
Farfel
(04/28/00; 12:03:47MT - usagold.com msg#: 29533)
OLD GOLD I disagree again...re: APH
APH has failed to call every notable market break in the stock market and the gold market the past two years.
Most recently he failed to see the 500 point drops in the Dow and Nasdaq (Turnaround Tuesday).
He failed to forecast the Washington Agreement surge in the gold price.
He failed to forecast the Placer Dome induced surge in the gold price.
However I do acknowledge that he has been very correct WITHIN an established market trend but his record for forecasting upside breaks in the gold market or downside breaks in the stock markets is simply rotten.
Check his historical posts and you will see I am absolutely correct. I have followed him quite closely and know of what I speak.
Finally I am not stating these facts to embarrass the man or computer program or whatever he is... simply providing empirical observations for those who wish to ascertain the Truth.
Thanks
F*
beesting
(04/28/00; 11:50:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 29532)
More Bad Economic News From Japan!
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/000428/b7.html
NIKKEI-225 ends week below 18,000 for the first time in 6 months....17,973.70.
The key barometer was also dragged lower by the sluggish performance of the bank shares, which came under pressure from renewed concerns about problem loans.
Department store operator Sogo Co. Ltd. earlier this month asked creditors to forgive 639 billion yen($6 billion) in debt the largest amount ever requested from creditor banks, stoking worries about non-performing bank loans at major banks.
Such concerns were heightened further on Friday by news that Sogo Vice President overseeing the firms effort to tackle its heavy debt had committed suicide.
FWIW....beesting.
oldgold
(04/28/00; 11:44:01MT - usagold.com msg#: 29531)
Farfel
let's face it -- the bears have been right about gold SO FAR.
APH is a trader. I don't think he has a big ideological agenda. He is calling it as he sees it. And so far his calls have been more right than wrong.
Note that the other technician I quoted (Peter Desario) is expecting a $50-60 jump in POG after a bottom in the $264-274 range.
beesting
(04/28/00; 11:09:15MT - usagold.com msg#: 29530)
Another glimpse at "The Working Poor."--The Gold Miners!
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/000427/ca_homesta_1.html
Homestake(NYSE-HM) Reports first quarter net loss of .06 per share.
Despite average cash costs of $192(U.S.)per ounce.
The loss in the first quarter of 2000 was largely attributed to a decline in the value of the Australian dollar.Click URL.
Comment:
I agree with Sir Farfel, how long can these major Gold producers stay in business operating at a continuing loss?
Everything seems to be working against them.Continued lower prices in Gold will close the mines even though they have been getting an average price of just under $300 per ounce....beesting.
Farfel
(04/28/00; 10:38:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 29529)
OLD GOLD, I disagree again...re: APH
Let me assure you that Mr. APH's forecasts are decidely bearish where gold is concerned. I don't care what kind of technician he imagines himself to be (Elliot Wave, Marcus Wave or Mortimer Wave), he forecasts far more times on the downside than on the upside. I know since I follow his projections on gold and the stock market. He is simply a gold bear and stock market bull under the guise of a neutral technician.
Don't you find it at all curious that he is willing to pinpoint precisely the downside of gold's next move (around 240, certainly an alarming drop), yet does not offer any clear indication precisely where he thinks it will spring back? He says that gold will have A HUGE MOVE UP after it hits 240 but to where? 245? 250? Would that be his definition of a HUGE MOVE UP, I mean who can tell in a gold market where people today get excited when the metal jumps a lousy buck? Why does he give a clear pin-point indication of where gold's drop will take it yet offers only the most vague indication of its rebounding upside move?
Answer: he wants to scare the crap out of any gold investors who feel his mumbo jumbo has any credibility.
No, Old Gold, these realized negative forecasts have tremendous psychological impact and everytime gold moves to new lows, it empowers the antagonists of gold so that they can they trumpet to the world, "SEE I TOLD YOU SO! DIDN'T I TELL YOU GOLD IS HEADING TO THE TRASHBIN OF HISTORY! SEE I TOLD YOU SO! NOW YOU KNOW WHERE I THINK GOLD IS GOING NEXT? 200 OR LOWER, THAT'S RIGHT! SO YOU BETTER LISTEN TO ME BECAUSE MY LAST PREDICTION WAS RIGHT, YOU BETTER KEEP SELLING! AND AFTER IT REACHES 200, YOU KNOW WHERE I THINK GOLD IS GOING, IT'S GOING TO 150, AND MY UNI-DIRECTIONALLY BIASED CHARTS TELL ME SO."
End of story.
Thanks
F*
YGM
(04/28/00; 10:36:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 29528)
Reg Howe (excerpt.... Apr.24 commentary)
http://www.goldensextant.com/
Thinking is man's only basic virtue, from which all others proceed. And his basic vice, the source of all his evils, is that nameless act which all of you practice, but struggle never to admit: the act of blanking out, the willful suspension of one's consciousness, the refusal to think -- not blindness, but the refusal to see; not ignorance, but the refusal to know. It is the act of unfocusing your mind and inducing an inner fog to escape the responsibility of judgment -- on the unstated premise that a thing will not exist if only you refuse to identify it, that A will not be A so long as you do not pronounce the verdict "It is." Non-thinking is an act of annihilation, a wish to negate existence, an attempt to wipe out reality. But existence exists; reality is not wiped out, it will merely wipe out the wiper. By refusing to say "It is," you are refusing to say "I am." By suspending your judgment, you are negating your person. When a man declares: "Who am I to know?" -- he is declaring: "Who am I to live?"
Underground miners who do the hard, dirty, dangerous work of digging gold ore know that existence exists. Theirs is one of those activities where to forget this basic principle is to court an early and painful demise. But neither rockbursts nor cave-ins patrol the executive suite or the boardroom.
Gold bugs, the gold mining companies' largest natural constituency, may sometimes appear almost overzealous in their search for the truth about gold and money. If they sometimes see things that may not exist, it is not for want of sincere desire to know the truth but because they have already known too many official lies and deceptions. They are among the small band of paranoiacs who have good reason for their affliction. Burdened with much deeper knowledge of gold than the mining executives who produce it, gold bugs receive mostly brickbats from the industry in which they are the principal investors.
YGM comments.....
.How True! We Goldbugs believe..."GOLD"......"It Is" and "It Will Be"................Big difference between 'Paranoid and
Prudent'..... "We Know and we Will Live" to rule the day.
beesting
(04/28/00; 10:28:19MT - usagold.com msg#: 29527)
@ Sir Elwood......Gold Tango Updates.
Special Request:
Would it be possible to post those U.S. Government figures on Gold exports on this(USAGOLD) site. I and I'm sure many others are very interested!
Reason:
My wounded old PC needs a new and updated hard-drive & is unable to handle JAVA.(freezes up every time)
I tried in vain at:
http://www.census.gov
This site is like a maze with no ending.
Sorry if it's an inconvenience to you.
Thanks in Advance.....beesting.
YGM
(04/28/00; 10:02:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 29526)
Black Blade....& Electrum
Your Mess. # 29512 (BBlade)
Thanks, but the web sites I was buiding to sell Yukon Gold will have to stay on hold as will the Mining of the product itself!.......I truly don't envision being able to continue if our
collective beliefs and efforts to bring transparency to the PMs Markets do not bear fruit by fall......Speaking for myself and "MANY" other Placer Gold Miners....I can only say....."Hang On"...The end game is near,,,,,,,and "Buy all you can",,,,,, Mine the Manipulation and leave the Gold in
the ground for the time being!.....Regards: YGM.
PS: @ $350.00 p/oz, Placer Gold production in Yukon will
live again. I can only hope when Gold and Silver storm the barricades that I'm still in business.........This forum and you folks that post here are my inspiration to stay focused on the bigger picture and keep the faith.....Bankruptcy is on my horizon if the game stays the same!
**Thanks------ "Electrum" for the Silver/Dow Ratios.....Well done Mark! ......We need those comparisons to help w/ focus....How're things in the Secret Valley????????
$5 Indian
(04/28/00; 09:16:21MT - usagold.com msg#: 29525)
We read therefore we are.
http://www.Sharelynx.net/Markets/Master.htm
Sharefin is a celebrity. Check out this news links site.
USAGOLD
(04/28/00; 09:09:54MT - usagold.com msg#: 29524)
TC, Marius, ORO, Cavan Man, Topaz
I will try to structure responses to your questions and or posts on the euro sometime today.
To whet the appetite from Reuters:
"Euro recovers a bit in early Asian trading from new lifetime lows set overnight despite a
25 basis point hike in the key refinancing rate by the ECB.
-- Euro tumbled to a lifetime low of 90.59 cents and 96.45 yen in overseas markets on Thursday.
-- Traders cited heavy stop-loss selling orders lining up at 90.00 cents. Should the euro fall to that
level, those stops would be activated and would exaggerate its fall.
-- Currency market is still heavily long in the euro, suggesting euro buying interventions, if any, by the
ECB would not be effective in the current market climate.
-- Dollar was quoted at 106.40/43 yen compared with 106.38/46 in late New York on Thursday.
-- Key resistance lies in the 106.70-80 zone. Japanese exporters and institutional investors need to sell more dollars ahead of Japan's ``Golden
Week'' holidays starting this weekend."
End quote
Golden Week?
USAGOLD
(04/28/00; 09:02:09MT - usagold.com msg#: 29523)
Today's Report: When Too Many Goods Chase Too Few Dollars
http://www.usagold.com/Order_Form.html
4/28/00 Indications
Current
Change
Gold June Comex
276.30
-2.10
Silver May Comex
5.03
+.01
30 Yr TBond June CBOT
97~05
+0~07
Dollar Index June NYBOT
109.78
+0.35
Market Report (4/28/00): Gold is down this morning as the dollar's climb continues unabated.
Today it was the yen's turn to lay its head happily on the chopping block with the euro thus far
taking a breather in its downhill slide. Competitive devaluation seems to be the order of the day as
both Japan and Europe compete for the lucrative U.S. export market while the hedge funds lurk
coyote-like exaggerating each move to the downside. One wonders what tactic Japan and Europe
will use when they run their respective currencies to zero.
Meanwhile, all of this has served as sufficient cover for our own Federal Reserve to rack up one
of the greatest money printing orgies in the Republic's history. In 1995 M3 (the money supply
figure which includes cash, checking, savings, CDs, money market, etc)stood at $4.25 trillion.
Now it approaches the $6.5 trillion mark -- 53% growth over a roughly four year period. So the
grand inflationary concert continues -- to what end no one knows. Of course, Wall Street views all
this as nothing to be concerned about as long as too many goods chase too few dollars -- even if
they are imported goods that balloon our trade deficit beyond any semblance of prudent economic
stewardship. So when the inflation rate suddenly jumps to near double digit levels, we shouldn't
be surprised. Perhaps those Clintonista productivity figures are misleading and the imports even
within the current framework a bit short of what's needed to keep the consumer price index in
check. And then you continue to have these nettlesome oil producers running up the oil price over
the past year.
All of this does have its economic consequences -- even if it hasn't shown up in the gold price . . .
.that is shown up yet. Nick Guarino's Wall Street Underground ran a screaming banner headline
this month: BEAR MARKET! In it Gaurino says: "Make no mistake, my friend: This is not a
'correction'. This is not a 'pause that refreshes.' This is not a 'consolidation before the next leg
up.' This is the start of a series of stock market swings, up and down, that will end in the greatest
wipe out in the history of mankind."
We continue to counsel prudent diversification into physical yellow metal stored nearby and
consider the current $275 price range a convenient turn of events for those in the acquisition mode.
That's it for today, my friends. See you here tomorrow.
The May News & Views is now on its way and should be hitting your mail boxes over the next
few days. We think you are going to like this issue written during the weekend after the April 14
Wall Street Meltdown.
If you are looking for a pro-gold view of the various financial markets as well as a summary of the
events affecting the yellow metal, our monthly newsletter might be of interest. News & Views
-- Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has
been characterized as witty, urbane, intelligent and down-to-earth. Not to mention it's Free of
Charge If you want to keep up with gold, this is the way a large segment of the gold owning
public does it, and has done it for over a decade.
Just click the link above and make the appropriate entries.
$5 Indian
(04/28/00; 08:57:37MT - usagold.com msg#: 29522)
(No Subject)
SWC is starting to do something.
oldgold
(04/28/00; 07:29:17MT - usagold.com msg#: 29521)
Farfel
APH is not predicting gold's doom. Far from it.
He postulates a quick drop to $245 followed by a HUGE MOVE UP.
Elliot Waver Peter DeSario with an excellent record has a similar scenario. When gold was around $280 recently he projected a further quick drop of $6-16 followed by a $50-60 spike to the upside. We are now down about $6.
Black Blade
(04/28/00; 07:24:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 29520)
Personal income up, savings up, ain't it all just peachy? S&P Futures up +18.70
http://www.cnnfn.com/2000/04/28/economy/economy/
NEW YORK (CNNfn) - The pace of U.S. personal income growth outstripped the pace of spending for the first time in six months in March, while the amount Americans put away in savings rose slightly from a record low, a government report released Friday showed.
Personal income rose 0.7 percent in March, the Commerce Department said, up from a 0.4 percent increase in February and slightly higher than the 0.6 percent increase expected by analysts polled by Briefing.com. Spending rose 0.5 percent, in line with forecasts and the smallest monthly gain since July.
At the same time, Commerce revised February's spending figure, boosting the rate upward to 1.4 percent -- the highest in almost six years. It was originally reported as a 1 percent increase. January's spending was also revised higher.
The amount Americans put aside in savings rose to a 0.4 percent pace, up from a record low 0.2 percent rate in February that was revised from the previous report.
All told, the numbers paint a picture of U.S. households earning and saving more, and spending less -- a situation the Federal Reserve has been working toward by raising interest rates five times since last June. Most analysts anticipate that Fed officials will raise short-term rates again at their May 16 policy meeting to slow economic growth and pre-empt inflation.
"The underlying trend is one of strong consumption growth and strong spending -- not something the Fed is going to consider particularly positive," said Rob Palombi, a senior markets analyst with Standard & Poor's MMS in Toronto. "The Fed's series of interest rate increases have not yet been enough to significantly deter the consumer from spending."
Al Fulchino
(04/28/00; 06:27:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 29519)
ET/Stranger/Leigh/Tedw
Thanks for the comment ET. If I stay in my current business,
I am selling one of my stations this Monday but I will be all set in cash flow, as gasoline is always current. Our Signature Gallery will likely be another matter. Real estate, which I am now venturing into, will be a curious thing for me. Do I go "tenant at will" so as to keep my ability to raise rents? Or do I sign short leases, such as one and two year ones? My initial thoughts are that it will depend on the property. Anyways, nice to see you so as well as Stranger's comments.
Leigh, did u ever decide on your trip to the Boston area?
Ted, how are you doing?
Black Blade
(04/28/00; 06:22:29MT - usagold.com msg#: 29518)
News release with only one purpose (slam down Au!), old news, just a re-release.
Source: Bridge News
SWISS GOLD: Meyer says SNB to begin sales as soon as possible
Zurich--April 29--Swiss National Bank President Hans Meyer said Friday the new currency law freeing the Swiss franc from its gold reserves would become law on May 1, and the SNB "would begin the sale of its excess gold reserves as quickly as possible." Meyer stressed the planned sales of 1,300 tonnes of SNB gold would be within the framework of the central bank agreement limiting sales to 2,000 tonnes over the coming five years. (Story .12742)
SWISS GOLD: Meyer says SNB gold reserves now nearing BBK levels
Zurich--Apr 29--Swiss National Bank President Hans Meyer said Friday that current SNB gold reserve levels are close to those held by the Bundesbank, and thus proportionately Switzerland held 10 times more gold in its reserves than Germany. Meyer said such large reserve holdings could no longer be justified, especially considering the large currency holdings of the Swiss central bank. (Story .14174)
Black Blade: Soon no longer to be the international safe haven? Maybe most in the western Hemisphere will likely do business closer to home, perhaps more banking business in the Caymans, Bahamas, Antigua, etc. Time will tell.
TownCrier
(04/28/00; 06:15:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 29517)
Miscellaneous economics thoughts and discussions
Primarily, I would like to offer an excerpt of an e-mail message I sent yesterday to MK when he solicited my "thoughts from The Tower" as he was mulling over the possibility of hedge funds mounting an attack against the euro...as he later characterized to the Round Table in his post USAGOLD (4/27/2000; 19:29:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 29466) "Speculation on the Euro Speculation". But first, I see there were some posts and news throughout the day that will serve as a good preamble to cover some bases for the letter to follow.
---BEGIN quote---------------
TheStranger (4/27/2000; 12:09:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 29436) AND (4/27/2000; 14:37:16MT - usagold.com msg#: 29445)
Farfel, If I may... monetary supply has not really begun to downscale since y2k. What you probably mean to say is the rate of GROWTH in money has slowed, which is altogether different. However, to the extent we can believe the numbers, the "M"s have continued to expand in the mid to high single digits. [...]
+
[...]Frankly, I do not agree with some of the dire predictions of HYPER-inflation which have been made here at the forum. Such visions require a Fed which not only hasn't addressed its problems but a Fed which apparently never will. That argument is a non-starter as far as I am concerned. But some inflation..YES. That I believe in. A year ago, I forecast 5 to 7% in these very pages. I stick by that forecast.
---END quote----------------------
Sir Stranger, while it has surely been well and good to keep an eye on the "Big M's" as you have done, might it be possible that the economic climate has become such that one cannot afford to let the Eurodollar be so freely overlooked?
Shall we take a peek?
From Sir Journeyman's Big Float article...
---BEGIN quote----------------
As Greenspan says, "We're seeing a major increase of dollar holdings by non-Americans, which is obviously the other side of the trade deficit." That is, while non-Americans have shipped us lots of goods, trade deficits also mean that in return, we've shipped them lots of dollars.
---END quote------------------
These Eurodollars (not to be confused with euros, they are dollars abroad) fall upon the "M" radar screen only as funds issued as currency for circulation within M1 (a tiny fraction of the whole) and within M3 as those portions of overnight and term Eurodollars held worldwide at foreign branches of U.S. banks together with all U.K. and Canadian banks holding them ***on behalf of U.S. residents***. Seeing now that the holdings by the Fed Chairman's "non-Americans" are off the radar screen, when you fold into this your knowledge of the banking system's ability to expand a monetary supply through lending, I hope you gain a new appreciation for that which you do not see. Whenever danger is found to be lurking, isn't it almost always in the shadows, or other places not easily seen by one and all? "It came out of nowhere!" said the startled victim.
Moving on with this in mind, we turn back now to this offering by Reuters of comments made by French Finance Minister Laurent Fabius on Wednesday to a parliamentary commission in advance of the ECB's rate-hike decision the following day:
---BEGIN quote------------------
PARIS, April 26 (Reuters) --: "What is happening is less a fall in the euro, and this is not pure semantics, but a strong appreciation of the dollar."
However, he indicated that investors should remain cautious about the dollar despite the booming U.S. economy.
"Even if the United States' economy is magnificent with its technological developments, the U.S. level of savings is terribly insufficient."
---END quote--------------------
As it turned out, the ECB did raise rates...by a quarter point. But with the strong GDP and ECI numbers released by the Dept's of Commerce and of Labor, it may well prove that the interest rate spread between euroland and the U.S. will wided further if the Fed sees fit to move by a half percentage point. Below are some key excerpts to keep in mind from Bloomberg...
---BEGIN quote-------------------
New York, April 27 (Bloomberg) - The euro fell to records
after reports showing strong U.S. growth and higher-than-expected
inflation increased concern Europe's interest rates will continue
to lag those in the world's largest economy.
The figures raised expectations the Federal Reserve will lift
its 6 percent overnight bank lending rate several more times this
year, or in bigger steps. That overshadowed a quarter-point
interest-rate increase by the European Central Bank, to 3.75
percent...
"Today's U.S. data support a widening interest rate premium
for the dollar relative to the euro..."
Since its introduction last year, Europe's currency has lost
about 27 percent against the yen and 22 percent against the
dollar, undermining confidence in the currency and raising import
prices and the risk of faster inflation in the region.
Price inflation in the euro zone accelerated to 2.1 percent
in March, surpassing the central bank's 2 percent ceiling for the
first time since the euro's inception. Money supply growth, the
bank's main gauge of future inflationary trends, is well above the
bank's 4.5 percent target.
---END quote-------------------
Of note, to be sure, is the (widening?) interest premium which is paid as an enticement for those to continue holding dollars (which also acts as a disincentive for those seeking to borrow funds denominated in dollars), the euro currency expansion, and the seemingly drastic external fall against the dollar and yen, all while euro price inflation was maintained throughout this time to be only now reaching beyond the bank's low ceiling target.
I now offer my commentary only as food for additional thought to the knights here, just as it was originally provided to MK to serve as nothing more significant than an "eye-opener" to the hazy view I have here from this windy rooftop outpost. Of note, it was encouraging to see that this view was largely consistent with the independent scouting report offered by Sir ORO in his end-of-day post (4/27/2000; 23:53:57MT - usagold.com msg#: 29498). Be sure to give it your time.
---BEGIN quote---------------
From: "USAGOLD sitemaster" <sitemaster@usagold.com>
To: Michael Kosares <cpm@usagold.com>
Subject: economics
Date: Thu, Apr 27, 2000, 4:04 PM
Hi MK:
Got your voice mail message. [...]...my thoughts on the falling euro
shape up a little like this...
Recalling from some earlier articles [last year] on the antics of currency traders, it
did indeed seem that much of the euro's past weakness was attributable more
to the effects of short-sellers than anything fundamentally weak with the
euro. It seemed that is was a pure momentum thing...going down just because
it was going down. Much like our stock market during the run-up mania...but
only in the other direction.
Thinking more in depth about the various factors in the world at large, and
drawing from many sources, I think that there is now truly a fundamental
situation in place that is giving true FOREX strength to the dollar (same as
the yen) and it naturally reveals itself as the apperance of a weakening
euro. But when you consider the "price performance" of gold also, it is
clearer that what we are seeing is truly a uniquely strong dollar.
That the hedge funds would attempt to capitalize on this situation by shorting
everything that stands "opposite" of the dollar does not surprise me in the
least.
The key thing to recognize in the scenario as I see it is that this unique
situation giving rise to the strong dollar is very temporary, and when it
turns, the hedge funds will find it very difficult to unwind their
positions. Right now they are skiing down the mountain with expectations
that they can take the chairlift back to the top when they reach the bottom.
In fact, when they reach the "bottom" of the slope they will actually find
themselves in helpless freefall, having skied right over the edge of a grand canyon.
This is the best way I can describe the fundamentals currently underlying
this unique situation of a freakishly strong dollar as it appears on the
forex markets:
First things first...our M3 measure of the monetary aggregate doesn't take
into account the vast quantities of Eurodollars in account in overseas
institutions, does it? [Rhetorical. It doesn't.] When financial deals are packaged
together for international purposes through such avenues as the London Club,
I'm inclined to say these have historically been denominated in dollars which
were drawn against such Eurodollar accounts. As long as the world supply of dollars
continued to grow, (it didn't matter whether these dollars originated from a
New York bank as "regular dollars" or from an international bank as
"Eurodollars") then there was no *fundamental* problem obtaining via the Forex
market the necessary dollars for loan repayment.
However, with the euro currency now on-line and at lower interest rates,
there is less activity and demand among international players/financiers to
lend/borrow new dollars into existence. Yet, with past loan obligations
still on the books to repay dollars, the forex market competition now
increases for the remaining supply of dollar/eurodollar funds, thereby
driving up the exchange rate of the dollar against other currencies such as
the euro. (The same thing appears to be happening to the yen, except that
the yen is ahead of the dollar in this sequence of events. BUT, whereas the
interest rate of the yen has been lowered to zero in an effort to stimulate
new borrowing, the dollar is dynamically in a different boat due to its status
as the world reserve currency.)
In short, it seems to me that the problem is that the yen and the dollar
have already lived through their respective heydays, and the peak of new
borrowing (and new use) is BEHIND them; their strong external exchange
rates are now a product of past loan obligations competing for what remains.
This is why the IMF has begun to use their "bizarre" gold operations...as a
means to tap into a source of additional dollar funds ***in the absence of
other parties willing to borrow them outright.***
I hope this makes some sense. Of course, this is just my personal take on
the situation. Feel free to differ as you see fit to do so.
R.
---END quote--------------------
Black Blade
(04/28/00; 06:08:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 29516)
Morning Wakeup Call
http://www.futuresource.com/cgi-bin/art?000428/023620
NY Precious Metals Review: July platinum jumps $24, 5.5%
New York--Apr 27--NYMEX July platinum futures settled up $24 or 5.5% at $462.10 per ounce after jumping to a 1-week high of $463.50. Traders said that platinum prices had fallen on a knee jerk reaction to last week's news that Russia was going to start deliveries. However, the sale was overdone, the platinum market is remaining tight and as a result prices are rebounding. (Story .2333)
Black Blade: As I've been saying, "don't believe it until you see it!". "The Russians are Coming!, The Russians are Coming!" ………. Yeah, right. The Russians have been singing the same old song for months now. Wake up and smell the coffee! Think the latest fiasco on the NYMEX platinum contracts are somehow related? Maybe these shorts believed the fairy tales. (I see Ted Butler has taken up this issue in another editorial at the other forum…………Right on, Go Ted!)
NYMEX mulls starting gold e-trade in smaller contract size
New York--April 27--The New York Mercantile Exchange is considering starting electronic trading of gold in a contract size of 20 ounces, Daniel Rappaport, NYMEX chairman told Bridge News. This is a fifth of the size of the current 100-ounce contract which is offered for open outcry trading by NYMEX's COMEX division and is also traded on the after hours NYMEX Access system, he said. (Story .21748)
Black Blade: So, what's this, buy a contract for 20 oz., take delivery and end up paying spot, premium, delivery charge and commissions? A little steep price to pay for 20 oz. Not worth the time. Better off with 100+ oz contracts. Hey I know, call MK (wink - wink)
Newmont CEO says gold price below $300/ounce not sustainable
New York--April 27--A continued gold price below $300 an ounce is not sustainable given the strong fundamentals in the market, said Ronald Cambre, Newmont's chairman and CEO. Cambre said demand is very strong for gold and the gap in supply and demand is just going to widen throughout this year. On Thursday, Jun gold closed up $1.3 at $278.4. (Story .25837)
Black Blade: Hey, I like this guy! OK, I'm biased, I've met him before and he don't like forward sales. Hey Peter Munk and Randy Oliphant, you reading this?
NYMEX to lower gold and silver futures margins
New York--Apr 27--The New York Mercantile Exchange said Thursday that margins on its gold and silver futures contracts will be decreased to $1,000 from $1,500 for members and hedgers and to $1,350 from $2,025 for non-member speculators. The changes are effective at the close of business Thursday. (Story.16747)
Black Blade: "Do ya feel lucky?, well do ya punk!" (Dirty Harry)
Black Blade: The Link above tells the overnight PGM story. Wake up and smell the coffee? Well some did!
Cage Rattler
(04/28/00; 06:00:26MT - usagold.com msg#: 29515)
$ / SDR at new lows
$/SDR now below 1.3188 and the only low left of any significance is 1.3063 way back on 4 July 1991.
Leland
(04/28/00; 05:52:55MT - usagold.com msg#: 29514)
Oldbug's Reply....Thanks, Oldbug
electrum - thanks!
(oldbug)
Apr 28, 07:27
I admit to being off my rocker. :-) But here's the
catch. If you put yourself back to 1982 and envision
someone telling you that the Dow would go above 10,000,
you would have had that person put in a mental ward.
There is no proof, just some loose ratios and
relationships.
Thanks for the support.
Off to the coal mine...
Leland
(04/28/00; 05:19:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 29513)
A Precious...From GOLD-EAGLE
DOW:POS
(electrum)
Apr 28, 07:10
Here's a volatile ratio if I ever saw one - DJIA
divided by the price of silver:
Year.....Dow....POS....Dow:POS
..............................
1901.....$51...$0.56.....92:1
1910......60....0.55....108:1
1920......72....0.66....109:1
1929.....380....0.49....776:1
1932......43....0.25....171:1
1940.....131....0.35....317:1
1950.....235....0.80....294:1
1960.....640....0.81....704:1
1961.....731....1.03....710:1
1965.....969....1.29....751:1
1974.....608....4.39....139:1
1980.....786...44.37.....18:1...!!!!!!!
1990...2,634....4.07....647:1
1999..11,000....5.00..2,200:1...!!!!!!!!!!!
I don't think anything could illustrate better just
how cheap silver is and just how expensive the Dow is.
To return to the pre-Fed ratio of around 100:1, silver
would have to go to $100 or the Dow would have to go to
$500 - or some combination in between - like $50 silver
and a $5,000 Dow. But look at the ratio in 1980! Then
tell Oldbug he's off his rocker dreaming of $500 silver.
Give it 10-15 years. Maybe he'll be proved right.
(Thanks to Gold-Eagle, And Usual Protections Apply)
Black Blade
(04/28/00; 05:06:53MT - usagold.com msg#: 29512)
Sorry YGM
See you got the MSFT news as well. Long night and a few tall Porters down the hatch. BTW, nice Web Site you have going! Is it completed yet? I haven't passed by lately.......Been meaning to though.
Black Blade
(04/28/00; 04:51:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 29511)
Judge to put the screws to MSFT today!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A28924-2000Apr27.html
The judge in the MSFT monopoly trial is to order the breakup of the company. This is a long way from being over. There will be numerous appeals, and there is not much support from Capitol Hill. This could slam the markets around today, we shall see. Meanwhile the S&P Futures are up +6.00, and Au down $1.20.
Thanx to "thebox" at the other forum for the link.
Topaz
(04/28/00; 02:56:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 29510)
Sir Town Crier
Thank you Sir- So it appears as long as Au/Euro keeps rising, these Guys (TPTB of the Euro variety) are Psychologically/Morally able to increase the money supply and to acquire more Metal if/when reqd to underpin curremcys credibility?......Voila! ....New Paradigm....Continental variety.
YGM
(4/28/2000; 2:22:30MT - usagold.com msg#: 29509)
Microsoft Break-Up...
http://www.drudgereport.com/
Excerpt...........
By James V. Grimaldi
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, April 28, 2000; Page A01
The U.S. Justice Department today will ask a federal judge to split Microsoft Corp. into two competing companies whose business practices would be tightly restrained for up to 10 years, people who have seen the plan said last night.
Lawyers for Justice and the states that joined the antitrust case are to present the breakup proposal to U.S. District Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson, igniting a historic debate about the future of one of the world's most successful companies.
Jackson, who ruled April 3 that Microsoft broke federal antitrust law, could rule on the company's fate by summer. Microsoft has said it will appeal his decision, and a final disposition could be years away.
Virtually all of the 19 states in the case are expected to sign on to the federal government's proposal that Microsoft be divided into two companies--one that sells the various Windows operating systems and another that does everything else, including producing software applications such as office-efficiency programs and the Internet Explorer browser, according to people who have seen the plan.
--------Continued @ above Link....
Will this be another dominoe for the Nasdaq?
TownCrier
(4/28/2000; 2:14:46MT - usagold.com msg#: 29508)
Sirs Marius, Topaz and Black Blade
MARIUS: "...regulate these hedge funds. ... It's like trying to capture the wind in a jar. I'm not sure pulling their gold out of the market would directly defend the Euro--hasn't it entered this erratic period despite doubling the gold quasi-backing?"
TOPAZ: "Forgive me for asking good Sir, but- when did the ECB increase their (official) Bullion holdings above 15%? I have been away from town recently and may have missed that."
BLACK BLADE: "The Euro is backed by roughly 15% gold, but there was a rumor(?) or possibly a report that th EU was being encouraged to double their gold reserves. One wonders if and Swiss gold could be added to the pile so to speak. Anyway, I am unaware of any recent additions to the EU reserves."
Some of us here in The Tower have had experience with wind captured in a jar...like the time a bottle of beer was fumbled to the floor, but we dared risk popping it open anyway. Or maybe I should say that was more like a driving rain captured in a jar...
On this European gold issue, here is the ballpark data you all are seeking.
When the European Central Bank (ECB) was initially subscribed with reserves from the Euro-system member Central Banks, the provisions through the Maastricht treaty allowed for an ECB reserve level of up to 50 billion European Currency Units (this was, after all, pre-euro). Maastricht left it to the ECB's Governing Council to decide in 1998 what percentage, if any, of these reserves would be subscribed in gold. They selected 15%, and the member central banks then provided the ECB with 747 tonnes in total, each nation contributing in accordance with their then-current capital share formula under EMI.
This is not euro "backing" per se, nor must it be maintained at 15% of all reserves held directly by the ECB. The book value of these reserves are marked to market quarterly, so as prices shift, so does the valuation, and hence a shifting percentage of the metal vs. paper reserves. Because the ECB exercises a degree of coordinating control over the external reserves still held by the euro-system member central banks, after each nation's reserves were totaled and adjusted downward for the loss of forex status for any holding's of a fellow member's currency (which effectively became euros at the appropriate fixed rate of exchange), the ECB's system-wide reserves effectively grew to more than 12 thousand tonnes, representing one-third of total euro-system reserves.
What you gentlemen seem to be referring to is news of the recent proposal to increase the allowable ECB reserves from the 50 billion euro lid to a figure that is double that...100 billion euros. I believe that proposal to be still in the works, and in either case, the subscription of additional reserves has yet to occur...be they (in time) gold assets, international currency assets, or a combination of the two. As you can see right now, a sharp increase in gold valuation would take the ECB reserve assets beyond the 50 billion euro level, so even with no additional arrival of reserves, the new allowable ECB reserve ceiling would provide room to grow. In helping you see things in another light, were the international paper assets of the euro-system to somehow fall to zero valuation, the value of their one-third gold assets would only have to double in order to maintain their total reserve value intact. (Truly hard to imagine that gold would stop at such a tiny two-fold increase in the event of such a forex meltdown that would wipe out their paper asset value. They are well-positioned, indeed. How many individuals could lay claim to similar prudence...such as we also find in Sir Harley Davidson's tale of his young co-worker from Nepal?)
ThaiGold
(4/28/2000; 1:19:34MT - usagold.com msg#: 29507)
Thursday's PATSY Index
In the Markets, Yesterday is History.
===========================================================
....
...
..
Thursday's PATSY Report
4-27-2000
To: ALL
The nightly PATSY Index shows the relative
amount that GoldBugs have been conipulated.
XAU=56.16 + POG=275.90 + POS=4.93
-equals-
336.99
Up +1.74 from Wednesday. The Trend is Our Friend.
Comment: Everything soared today. Relativly speaking.
Will this continue.?. Yes.!. Until it reverses again.
My advice: Buy Buy Buy. For those so-inclined. -and-
Sell Sell Sell.. For all the others. As for me, I'll
just (as usual) Wait Wait Wait.
Prediction: More (or less) of the same.
Note: Sorry "tonight's" Index-post is late. One of my
pups is feeling under the weather, and needed lotsa TLC.
I love my Dobermans. Now *that's* Talking My Book.!.
ThaiGold...
Got Some.?. ... Get Some.!.
===========================================================
Comments Welcomed from anyone/anywhere/anytime.
ThaiRanch@OperaMail.Com
===========================================================
Elwood
(4/28/2000; 0:57:52MT - usagold.com msg#: 29506)
GoldTango Updated
http://www.geocities.com/goldtango/
Converted the dollar flows to metric tonnes (no real difference) and included the monthly outflows of gold from the Fed that is held in custodial accounts for others.
The Fed data supplies supporting evidence to the theory that gold outflows dramatically increase immediately preceding world financial crises. What's interesting is that there appears to be a continuous outflow of gold from the Fed, but at certain times the volume shoots up dramatically.
The numbers indicate a high probability of a significant event happening sometime this year. Wonder what that could be...
Elwood
Topaz
(4/28/2000; 0:37:43MT - usagold.com msg#: 29505)
Black Blade- Opals
"Alice" is just fine by me too!
Opals- like Gold, are most easily acquired these days by working for currency and then buying them (too much hard Yakka- and Luck plays a big part). "Coober" sure is an interesting place though.
Black Blade
(4/28/2000; 0:23:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 29504)
CoinGuy Too?
What next? Who else is going to show up? Haven't seen you around here for a while either CoinGuy! I even think Richard was hangin' out here recently. I offer you all a "Virtual Anchor Steam Porter" and raise my glass, cheers!
BTW, the big turn around on Wall Street today (yesterday?) was well orchestrated, don't you think? You can almost throw cash into the market and not worry.....Uncle Bill's boys will bail you out if things get a bit choppy! Hmmmm.......
Black Blade
(4/28/2000; 0:13:10MT - usagold.com msg#: 29503)
Topaz.....Land of Oz
Sounds like you had fun. I hope to get back to take another rail journey across Oz one of these days. I actually like Alice Springs believe it or not. Would like to spend some time at Coober Pedy and Lightening Ridge though. Get me some of those opals ya know ;-)
ORO
(4/28/2000; 0:10:44MT - usagold.com msg#: 29502)
Euro Crush and the Dollar parabolic spike
Repost for today
The dollar is at the extreme of a short squeeze on the world markets as a result of the Euro transition. The Euro is undergoing an inflation of its float of the sort that had occurred in the dollar during the 70s, but way more quickly. The Euro is establishing a debt base. As a group of nations with an aggregate current accounts surplus, Euro land will soon find itself in the Japanese position of 1998.
Just as Japanese companies prepared for a strong Yen years before it came by building auto manufacturing facillities in the US, so are European corporations doing now. That is further assurance that the situation will reverse.
To Q3 99, the Euro debt base (their "Big Float") has grown 23% in one year despite Europe having a current account SURPLUS (We have a deficit). My tally out of the official US "Big Float" according to the BIS, is 5.8 $Trillion - growing at 6%, with bank debt FALLING 1.5%. While that of the Euro was 4.5 $trillion (including internal transnational debt within the EU), up from 3.6 $trillion.
This fast growing debt base will generate demand for Euro in the future as interest must be paid by the speculators and US based transnational corporations who borrowed it into existence. Since these corporations and speculators are dollar based (for the most part) they will be in the same position as gold is in. A current account surplus will prevent Euro from coming to market through trade, leaving these corporations and speculators with a dollar supply they will HAVE TO convert into Euro.
Combined with the US trade deficit, the Dollar's big float has had a 7% gross supply rate vs a 21% supply rate for the Euro (including current accounts surplus). Despite this rise in Euro supply, the EU has a MUCH lower price inflation (2.3%)than the US, and they do not massage the numbers. "Deprocessing" the US numbers, gives a 6.5% price inflation rate for 99, and it has been growing even with steady commodity prices over the last quarter, due to the strong dollar. The excessive Euro creation is predominantly a currency market phenomenon, and the parties taking on these Euro liabilities are not European, but Caymans, London, and New York based. Unlike US "Big Float" for which Americans are on the hook, since it was generated internally. This Euro "Big Float" is one for which foregners are on the hook - not Europeans. The EU is not supplying Euro to the markets, the financial markets are creating them.
In the meantime, the situation is such that US transnationals are losing market share and profits to EU competitors who have better financial terms and better export policies. This is forcing the US transnationals to seek further Euro financing instead of dollar financing. While this is pushing the Euro down NOW, it will be a death trap for the dollar LATER. Already, the US income payments balance is over 10 $ billion per quarter in the red. By the end of this year, that figure will hit $40 billion on top of the trade deficit. While high interest rates may cool down the economy somewhat on big ticket items, these same high rates will increase the outgoing payout of dollars. If the process ceases because of a local slowdown, then the Fed will lower rates in order to create monetary "stimulus", but both a lower rate and an economic slowdown will create a rush of funds dumping their dollars at the exchange window for whatever they can get and rushing back home. IT IS DAMNED IF YOU DO, DAMNED IF YOU DON'T.
The Euro's decline rate will ease up as the Euro float growth rate flattens this year, now that both EU and non-EU corporations are completing their transition to Euro finance rather than Dollar finance (at least for EU operations - though they seem increasingly inclined to raise Euro funds for global operations as well). Interest payments due on the Euro debt will reach significant propportions soon. The Euro float should reach Dollar float size by the end of this year, however, that increase will have been on top of a bigger debt base and without support from trade deficits. The ECB will then start an "aggressive" move in rates to "fight inflation" and will create the most massive short squeeze ever seen. Greater than that of the Dollar in the past 20 years, or the Pound in the 1920s and 1930s.
Since the Eurodollar rates spiked from 6.6% to 6.75% (new high) during this dollar spike, it is obvious that the displacement of dollar borrowing in global markets has been so severe that dollar supply from the current accounts is not enough to cover current dollar interest payment needs, now near $500 billion at the current, higher, interest rate. The Euro debt requires only $250 billion, and is getting all the necessary supply ($600-750 billion) from new borrowing by non-EU organizations. The Dollar supply is wholly from the current accounts deficit and stands only at a $400 billion level.
The US current accouts deficit has had the predominant effect of transferring dollar obligations from foreign non-Fed members to US based Fed members should now be over 40%, up from 33% in the first half of 99. By the end of the year we will be near 50%, and then the pressure on the Fed to add reserves will be tremendous as "Big Float" liabilities will be to foreigners and assets will be debt of Americans.
EU Political situation:
The EU socialist governments will be thrown out soon enough if they continue trying to out-Japan the Japanese in order to avoid succumbing to competitive pressures that are demanding they reduce regulation and welfare expenditures. The latter are a result of the Euro zone allowing much better mobility of capital - the capital base of the various nations is no longer captive to government pressure. Japan had to "Big Bang" its reforms over, what to them, is a short period. The EU leadership, unlike Japanese leaders, are aware of what they need to do (but for Lafontain, but he was "ejected"), and will do it though they loath to do so.
So long as the governments do not lose their nerve, they will be able to use the Euro crissis as an excuse to "take extraordinary measures" to tighten their belts and deregulate more quickly. For those who do not realize this, Carter was the president who started the bulk of the "small government" reform in the US - Ford and Nixon started the trend but did not initiate much. That is why Europe has chosen socialists to get the bulk of the deregulation programs started. The expectation has been that they will do a "kinder" restructuring than the center right and definitely more so than the liberals (no, in Europe liberal does not mean socialist, it sort of means "libertarian").
Finally, a summary:
1. The Euro is falling because there is a big supply coming into the markets from non-EU sources. Just like the Yen Carry Trade that went bust in 1998 and resulted in a 44% rise in the Yen/dollar in less than a year.
2. The dollar is rising because there is demand from old dollar debt, but dollars are being destroyed abroad instead of being created. It is a liquidity crissis. In an upcoming post I will use a recent example to demonstrate.
3. The Euro external float expansion is a creature of speculation and is not related to the EU internal monetary policies nor to the EU economy itself.
4. The very justified critique of EU government foot-dragging on reform will give way to cudos as they start to take action. Unions will take to the street and chaos will reign in cycles of strikes, but the governments - socialist or not - will take action. We need only one to demonstrate and force the others to compete. Ireland is one good example. It may be enough. The Euro drop will help them politically in selling reform to their public.
5. The dollar shortage in the currency markets is partially induced by Japanese accumulation of dollars, but it is high US rates that are preventing new borrowing (dollar creation) abroad, and intensifying a short squeeze on dollar debtors.
6. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. The Fed raising rates increases our trade deficit and raises the flow of dollar income out of the US. It is causing destruction of the dollar debts that kept the dollar alive.
7. When the ECB does make a move to raise rates, the unwinding of the dollar - Euro carry trade will be even wilder than the ride we got on the Yen. Unlike the Yen, at 0% interest and 2.5% long commercial rates, the Euro bears a 3.5% interest short term, and nearly 6% commercial long rates, and these are rising with the carry trade.
CoinGuy
(4/28/2000; 0:10:18MT - usagold.com msg#: 29501)
Stranger and Stranger....
Hello from the Orient,
It's been a heck of awhile since I've posted, I've actually have not had time... I have to admit I've been terribly busy, but I thougt I would check in and had to get a few licks to the "Stranger". I've heard that GE could be a takeover target, if you've heard the rumor, you know the company?. Yes, these were Reliable sources?! from DWR... Any verification? Also, I need to purchase some CD's in Euros, is this possible through DWR? Stranger, e-mail me @ Stevesnewroad@aol.com. I respect MK, and we probably need to take this elsewhere. Would like to say hi to the roundtable as well. I apologize for not being around as much, gold manipulation is still in force...
Sorry Hillary it doesn't take a village, just 130 federal stormtroopers in a pre-dawn raid?
GO GOLD, AND GATA IS GROWING...
Coinguy
Black Blade
(4/28/2000; 0:06:49MT - usagold.com msg#: 29500)
Howdy Stranger
I always read your post with interest. Today you even mention how the "Money Honey" Maria Bartiromo was spouting some drivel about how inflation is now good. I don't pay much attention to her when she's on the tube, but if she were to show a little cleavage.........
Sorry, my mind was wandering. Seriously, glad to see you here again. Gee, you show up, Al Fulchino then ET, it's like old times, before you know it Koan will show up with another Bear Story :-)
Topaz
(4/28/2000; 0:06:31MT - usagold.com msg#: 29499)
Black Blade
G-Day Sir Blade,
Just returned from 3 Wks in the Red Centre of Oz- didn't miss much it appears.
Keep up the effort with the "Wake-up-Calls"---- and comments ,keeps us all in touch with the OTHER PM's.
I get the feeling that with POG sub280, another Left Field Event is just around the corner, dont you?
ViewYesterday's Discussion.
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